Taiwan presidential election live

Live commentary on today’s Taiwan presidential election. Also covered: US primary polls and upcoming US and UK by-elections.

Live Commentary

9:25am Sunday Final results: Lai defeated Hou by 40.1-33.5, a 6.6% margin, with 26.5% for Ko. However, the DPP lost its majority in the 113-member legislature, with the KMT winning 52 seats (up 14 since 2020), the DPP 51 (down ten), the TPP eight (up three) and others two (down seven). The DPP will need support from either the KMT or TPP to reach the 57 votes needed for a majority.

11:07pm With 95% reporting, Lai leads Hou by 40.3-33.4 with 26.3% for Ko. Although his lead has slipped with counting of final votes, Lai has still clearly won. A reminder that this election is by First Past the Post, so there’s no runoff.

10:24pm With 76% reporting, Lai leads Hou by 41.1-33.2 with 25.7% for Ko.

9:11pm With 16% reporting, Lai leads Hou by 43.1-33.6 with 23.4% for Ko. Looking very likely Lai will win a record third consecutive term for the DPP.

8:33pm With 3% reporting, Lai leads Hou by 43.2-35.6 with 21.2% for Ko.

7:30pm Bloomberg says the first results from Taiwan should be out after 8pm AEDT.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

Polls close at 7pm AEDT today for Taiwan’s presidential election, in which first past the post is used. There are three candidates: William Lai of the centre-left and pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Hou You-ih of the more pro-China and conservative Kuomintang (KMT) and Ko Wen-je of the populist Taiwan People’s Party (TPP).

The DPP holds the presidency, with incumbent Tsai Ing-wen elected for two terms since 2016, but she can’t run again owing to term limits. There had been speculation that the KMT and TPP would form a joint ticket before nominations closed on November 24, but this fell apart.

Publication of polls has not been permitted since January 3. The final polls released before this date showed Lai leading Hou by two to five points, with one poll giving Lai an 11-point lead. Ko’s support was in the low 20’s. If Lai wins, it would be the first time the same party has won the presidency for three consecutive terms. This election is likely to be the first since 2000 when the winner did not receive a vote majority.

Trump set for big win in Iowa caucus

The first US presidential nominating contest will be Monday’s Iowa Republican caucus (Tuesday AEDT). The FiveThirtyEight aggregate of Iowa polls shows Donald Trump way ahead with 51.3%, followed by Nikki Haley at 17.3% and Ron DeSantis at 16.1%. I will have a separate post on Iowa on Tuesday.

The New Hampshire primary follows Iowa on January 23. Trump is leading in NH with 41.4%, followed by Haley at 30.0% and DeSantis at 6.1%. There has been a surge for Haley since December. She should be helped by the withdrawal of anti-Trump candidate Chris Christie on Wednesday; Christie had 11.6% in NH polls.

In national Republican polls, Trump is far ahead with 60.4%, followed by DeSantis at 12.1% and Haley at 11.7%. On Super Tuesday March 5, many states will vote, and Trump and Joe Biden will probably be close to clinching their parties’ nominations after this date. No high-profile Democrat has challenged Biden for the Democratic nomination.

I covered the US presidential election for The Conversation on December 13. I said that while Trump was leading Biden, there were two main chances of a Biden recovery: an improvement in economic sentiment and a Trump conviction. But Biden will be almost 82 by the November election, while Trump will be 78.

Upcoming US and UK by-elections

Republican George Santos was expelled from the federal House on December 1 by a 311-114 vote (a two-thirds majority was required). Santos was facing 23 indictments when expelled. A by-election will be held on February 13 in Santos’ former seat (New York’s third). In 2022, Santos gained this seat from the Democrats by a 53.8-46.2 margin. According to Daily Kos elections, Biden won this seat in 2020 by an 8.2% margin. A late November poll gave the Democrat a three-point lead.

In most midterm elections, the non-presidential party has won easily. Democrats did well in 2022 to keep Republicans to a 222-213 federal House majority, a Republican gain of nine seats on 2020. But Democrats lost four seats in New York.

Republicans currently hold a 220-213 House majority after former Republican Speaker Kevin McCarthy resigned on December 31. McCarthy’s seat is safe Republican, so this by-election is unlikely to be competitive. A Democratic win in New York’s third would reduce the Republican majority to 220-214 until McCarthy’s seat is filled.

By-elections will occur on February 15 in the UK Conservative-held seat of Wellingborough and Kingswood. In Wellingborough MP Peter Bone was recalled following a six-week parliamentary suspension, while in Kingswood MP Chris Skidmore resigned in protest over more oil and gas licenses. In 2019 Bone won Wellingborough by 62.2-26.5 over Labour with 7.9% for the Liberal Democrats, while Skidmore won Kingswood by 56.2-33.4 over Labour with 6.9% Lib Dem. The Conservatives have lost safer seats at by-elections this term.

Twentieth birthday miscellany (open thread)

The Poll Bludger celebrates 20 years in the only way it knows how: with some poll results and a couple of preselection updates.

Today marks twenty years since the Poll Bludger launched itself on an unsuspecting blogosphere. You may perhaps find in this milestone occasion to reward the site with a birthday present, which will be gratefully received through the “become a supporter” button at the top of the site.

Polling news:

• YouGov has intruded on the long-held monopoly of EMRS by publishing a Tasmanian state poll. It points to the existence of a big market for the Jacqui Lambie Network, which is credited with 20% of the vote – enough in the estimation of YouGov’s “likely outcome” to win it seven seats and a decisive position in a lower house that will expand at the next election from 25 seats to 35. The Liberals duly have no chance of recording another majority, being credited with 31% of the vote and a projected eleven seats. Labor are on 27% and ten seats and the Greens 15% and six seats, with independent Kristie Johnston presumed headed for re-election in Clark. It should be noted that when the Jacqui Lambie Network last tried its hand at a state election, in 2018, strong early poll numbers withered during the campaign period and it emerged empty-handed. The poll also assumes it will run in all five divisions, whereas it was reported in November that it will not be running in Clark. The poll was conducted December 21 to January 4 from a sample of 850.

• The first federal poll of the year is from Roy Morgan, presumably returning to its weekly schedule after a four-week break over Christmas and New Year. The poll has the Coalition leading 51-49 on two-party preferred, the third Morgan poll of recent months to have the Coalition leading after two 50.5-49.5 results since October, reversing the result from the last poll in early December. Labor has taken a three-point hit on the primary vote, falling to 29%, with the Coalition up one to 39%, the Greens up one-and-a-half to 13% and One Nation up half to 5%. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1716.

Preselection news:

• The Age reports Labor’s candidate for the looming Dunkley by-election is likely to be Jodie Belyea, manager of MEGT Foundation, which provides tertiary scholarships for disadvantaged women. Belyea has won the seemingly decisive support of the Socialist Left faction for a preselection that will be formally ratified by the party’s national executive over the coming weeks. The list of Liberal contenders has reportedly been reduced to Nathan Conroy, Donna Hope and Bec Buchanan, with David Burgess withdrawing from contention. The by-election is expected to be held in late February.

• The West Australian reports on two prospective nominees for Liberal preselection in the Perth seat of Curtin, which was lost to teal independent Kate Chaney in 2022: Matt Moran, an Afghanistan veteran and former Ten Network reporter now employed in government relations at naval shipbuilder Luerssen Australia, and Tom White, who until recently was Uber’s chief executive for South Korea. It was earlier reported that there was a push in the party for Moran to challenge Ian Goodenough for preselection in Curtin’s northern neighbour, Moore, which is also of interest to Vince Connelly, former member for the abolished seat of Stirling.

Monday miscellany (open thread)

A preselection opponent for Tim Wilson in Goldstein, update on the Queensland by-election for Annastacia Palaszczuk’s seat, and Eric Abetz announces a state comeback bid.

Three items of electoral relevance to emerge amidst the New Year news and polling drought:

• Paul Sakkal of The Age reports Stephanie Hunt, corporate lawyer and former legal adviser to Julie Bishop and Marise Payne, will seek Liberal preselection for Goldstein, which Tim Wilson hopes to recover after losing to independent Zoe Daniel in 2022. Wilson remains the front-runner, in the estimation of a further report in The Age today.

• Lydia Lynch of The Australian reports Margie Nightingale, former teacher and policy adviser to Treasurer Cameron Dick, is the front-runner to succeed Annastacia Palaszczuk in her seat of Inala, the by-election for which is “tipped to be held in March”. Palaszczuk’s former deputy chief-of-staff, Jon Persley, had long been mentioned as her likely successor, but he has withdrawn from contention, saying the party’s gender quota rules played a “big factor” in the decision.

• Sue Bailey of the Sunday Tasmanian reports that veteran former Liberal Senator and conservative stalwart Eric Abetz will seek state preselection in the division of Franklin for an election due in June next year, assuming Jeremy Rockliff’s government is able to keep the show on the road that long.

Donation drive

Time for the Poll Bludger’s bi-monthly appeal for donations, on this occasion coinciding with the lean period of Christmas and New Year, when interest in politics is diminished and potential donors tend to find more pressing demands on their charitable dollar. If that tugs at your heart strings, of if you have perhaps simply enjoyed a good week at the track, donations are as ever gratefully received through the “become a supporter” buttons that can be found at the top of the page and the bottom of each post.

These posts also offer an opportunity to promote what lies on the horizon for the site, which in the coming year will include an end to an electoral drought going back to the New South Wales state election in March. The Brisbane City Council election on March 16 will get the famous Poll Bludger live results treatment, with a Queensland state election scheduled for October 26; the Australian Capital Territory goes to the polls a week earlier on October 19; a Northern Territory election will be held on August 24; and there currently looms a very interested federal by-election in Dunkley and a rather less interesting Queensland state one in Annastacia Palaszczuk’s seat of Inala, both on dates to be determined.

South Australian election minus two-and-a-bit years

An overdue round-up of state electoral developments in South Australia, most of them involving the internal affairs of the Liberal Party.

Peter Malinauskas’s Labor government in South Australia is approaching the mid-point of the four-year term it won in March 2022, and is yet to be tested by an opinion poll. While the government is struggling to deliver on its signature election promise of reducing ambulance ramping, it has otherwise kept out of trouble and presumably remains in the ascendant. Greater clarity about the next election must await a redistribution process that can be expected to begin shortly with a call for submissions.

This site’s last post about South Australian affairs came in July 2022 when Jack Beatty succeeded Vickie Chapman in the by-election for Bragg, where the safe Liberal margin was further whittled back by 2.5% following an 8.8% swing to Labor at the election. Defeated Liberal premier Steven Marshall remains in his marginal seat of Dunstan, but his low-key parliamentary activity and appointment to board and director positions are increasingly attracting comment. Paul Starick of The Advertiser suggests Marshall has “waited to trigger a by-election until the Liberals have a chance of victory”, and that the moment might soon arrive. Positioned to succeed him in Dunstan is Anna Finizio, former solicitor, state government media adviser, public policy and economics manager at PwC and federal candidate for Hindmarsh.

David Speirs has been undisturbed in the Liberal leadership since succeeding Marshall after the election, apart from occasional suggestions he should watch out for Vincent Tarzia and, increasingly, Ashton Hurn (whose prospects were said by The Advertiser’s Paul Starick to have suffered from the party’s growing conservative ascendancy, on which more below). There is also a mounting expectation that former federal Boothby MP Nicolle Flint will seek to recover the rural seat of MacKillop from party renegade Nick McBride at the next election, ultimately in pursuit of leadership ambitions.

The Liberal Party’s conservative turn has been accomplished through a reported surge of 1000 new members, accounting for nearly 20% of the total. Much of this has been attributed to Trump-echoing conservative Senator Alex Antic, who boasts that “the days of the Liberal Party in South Australia being controlled by 25-year-old ABC-watching, Guardian-reading political staffers are over”. David Penberthy of The Australian further notes the moderate establishment that dominated the Marshall government alienated conservatives through abortion and euthanasia reforms, business through land tax reforms, and libertarians through its management of the pandemic.

The following changes in parliament have occurred since the Bragg by-election, only the first involving the lower house:

• MacKillop MP Nick McBride quit the Liberal Party in July, putting the lower house numbers at Labor 27, Liberal 15 and independents five. McBride said he believed his country seat would be better served by an independent, but also complained of “dark forces” who had moved the party from the “broad church” of John Howard and Bob Menzies. The move notably came a fortnight after local party positions were usurped by husband-and-wife Pentecostal pastors Matthew and Janine Neumann. There have been occasional suggestions McBride might form a breakaway rural conservative party with Mount Gambier independent Troy Bell.

• SA-Best MLC Frank Pangallo quit the party on December 1 to sit as an independent, saying he and his sole colleague, Connie Bonaros, “no longer share our once-aligned ideologies”. Paul Starick of The Advertiser reported the two had fallen out after Bonaros threw her support behind government legislation for the merger of University of Adelaide and UniSA, which Pangallo wanted more time to consider in detail. The SA-Best seats are a product of staggered terms and the peak of the Nick Xenophon wave in 2018, which crashed in 2022.

• Labor MLC Irene Pnevmatikos retired in October due to ill health and was succeeded by Mira El Dannawi, assistant director of Modbury Community Children’s Centre. David Simmons of InDaily reports El Dannawi was chosen by Labor’s executive after winning decisive backing from Pnevmatikos’s Left faction, becoming the first Muslim to serve in state parliament.

• Former Health Minister Stephen Wade retired from the Legislative Council in January, with Ben Hood chosen by the Liberal Party to complete the three years of his term. Hood is a former Mount Gambier councillor and unsuccessful candidate for the state seat of Mount Gambier, and the brother of Lucy Hood, the Labor member for Adelaide. He reportedly pursued preselection despite opposition from party leader and fellow conservative David Speirs, who wished for him to continue pursuing independent Troy Bell in Mount Gambier. Hood won 119 votes in the ballot of the party’s state council ahead of 87 for moderate-aligned Leah Grantham, state party vice-president and daughter of former Legislative Council President John Dawkins. An early contender was Hannah March, moderate-aligned former prosecutor and chief-of-staff to Defence Minister Christopher Pyne, but she withdrew amid a bid to expel her from the party and a defamation concerns notice from Senator Alex Antic, who accused her of “bullying”.

New Year miscellany: Dunkley by-election, preselection and polling round-up (open thread)

First reports emerge of preselection contenders for the looming Dunkley by-election, plus state polls from Victoria and Queensland and much else besides.

First up, developments ahead of the Dunkley by-election, which Rachel Baxendale of The Australian reported yesterday was “unlikely to be held before late February”:

• A Liberal preselection ballot scheduled for January 14 is expected to include Frankston mayor Nathan Conroy; Donna Hope, who as Donna Bauer held the state seat of Carrum from 2010 to 2014 and is now an electorate officer to Chris Crewther, former federal member for Dunkley and now state member for Mornington; Bec Buchanan, another staffer to Crewther and the party’s state candidate for Carrum in 2022; and Sorrento real estate agent David Burgess, who was on the party’s Legislative Council ticket for Eastern Victoria in 2022.

• Paul Sakkal of The Age today reports the widower of the late Labor member Peta Murphy, Rod Glover, is being encouraged to seek preselection by “senior Labor figures”. The report describes Glover as a “respected former staffer to Kevin Rudd, university professor and public policy expert”. Also mentioned in Rachel Baxendale’s report were Madison Child, an “international relations and public policy graduate in her mid twenties who grew up in Frankston”, and has lately worked as an electorate officer to Murphy; Georgia Fowler, a local nurse who ran in Mornington at the November 2022 state election; and Joshua Sinclair, chief executive of the Committee for Frankston and Mornington Peninsula.

Other preselection news:

• Tim Wilson has confirmed he will seek Liberal preselection to recover the Melbourne seat of Goldstein following his defeat at the hands of teal independent Zoe Daniel in 2022. Paul Sakkal of The Age reports he is “unlikely to face a challenger”.

• Lydia Lynch of The Australian today reports nominations for Liberal National Party preselection will close on January 15 in the inner Brisbane seat of Ryan, which the party lost to Elizabeth Watson-Brown of the Greens in 2022, and the Gold Coast seat of McPherson, which will be vacated with the retirement of Karen Andrews. The front-runner in the former case is said to be Maggie Forrest, barrister and the party’s honorary legal adviser. In addition to the previously identified Ben Naday, Leon Rebello and David Stevens in McPherson (the first two being rated the front-runners) is Adam Fitzgibbons, head of public affairs at Coles. Party insiders are said to be “increasingly concerned” about the emergence of a “McPherson Matters” group that is preparing a teal independent bid for the seat.

• Lily McCaffrey of the Herald-Sun reports Emanuele Cicchiello, deputy principal Lighthouse Christian College deputy principal, has been preselected as Liberal candidate for Aston, the Melbourne seat that was lost to the party in a historic by-election result on April 1. Cicchiello ran unsuccessfully in Bruce in 2013 and has made numerous other bids for preselection.

• Rochelle Pattison, chair of Transgender Victoria and director of corporate finance firm Chimaera Capital, has nominated for Liberal preselection in Kooyong, joining an existing field consisting of Amelia Hamer, Susan Morris and Michael Flynn.

• The New South Wales Liberal Party website records two unheralded federal election candidates in Sam Kayal, a local accountant who will again run in Werriwa following an unsuccessful bid in 2022, and Katie Mullens, conservative-aligned solicitor at Barrak Lawyers who ran for the state seat of Parramatta in March and has now been preselected for the federal seat of the same name.

Polling news:

• The Courier-Mail sought to read the temperature of Queensland politics post-Annastacia Palaszczuk without breaking the budget by commissioning a uComms robopoll, crediting the Liberal National Party opposition with a two-party lead of 51-49. The only detail provided on primary votes was that the LNP was on 36.2% and Labor 34.4% – no indication was provided as to whether this was exclusive of the uncommitted, which is often not the case withuComms. Steven Miles was viewed positively by 42.7% and negatively by 27.6%, with only the positive rating of 37.8% provided for David Crisafulli. A forced response question on preferred premier had Crisafulli leading Miles by 52.2-47.8. True to the Courier-Mail style guide, the report on this unremarkable set of numbers included the words “startling”, “explosive”, “whopping” and “stunning”. The initial report on Tuesday was accompanied by a hook to a follow-up that promised to tell “who Queenslanders really wanted as Annastacia Palaszczuk’s replacement”. The answer was revealed the next day to be Steven Miles, favoured by 37.8% over Shannon Fentiman on 35.0% and Cameron Dick on 27.1%. The poll was conducted December 21 and 22 from a sample of 1911.

• RedBridge Group has a poll of Victorian state voting intention showing Labor leading 55.9-44.1, little different to the 55.0-45.0 result at the November 2022 election. The primary votes are Labor 37% (36.7% at the election), Coalition 36% (34.5%) and Greens 13% (11.5%). Extensive further results include leadership ratings inclusive of “neither approve nor disapprove” option that find Jacinta Allan viewed positively by 24%, negatively by 30% and neutrally by 32%, John Pesutto at 16% positive, 36% neutral and 29% negative, and Greens leader Samantha Ratnam at 14% positive, 29% neutral and 35% negative. The poll was conducted December 2 to 12 from a sample of 2026.

• Nine Newspapers published results from Resolve Strategic on Thursday on whether various politicians were viewed positively, neutrally, negatively or not at all, which it had held back from its last national poll nearly a month ago. Whereas a similar recent exercise by Roy Morgan simply invited respondents to identify politicians they did and didn’t trust, this one took the to-my-mind more useful approach of presenting respondents with a set list of forty names. In the federal sphere, the five most positively rated were Penny Wong (net 14%, meaning the difference between her positive and negative results), Jacqui Lambie (10%), Jacinta Price (6%), David Pocock (5%) and Tanya Plibersek (3%). The lowest were Scott Morrison (minus 35%), Lidia Thorpe (minus 29%, a particularly remarkable result given what was presumably modest name recognition), Barnaby Joyce (minus 27%), Pauline Hanson (minus 25%) and, interestingly, Bob Katter (minus 15%). Of state leaders, Chris Minns (plus 14%) and David Crisafulli (plus 9%) did notably well, and John Pesutto (minus 7%) and the since-departed Annastacia Palaszczuk (minus 17%) notably poorly. The poll was conducted November 29 to December 3 from a sample of 1605.

Newspoll aggregates: October to December (open thread)

State breakdowns from the last three Newspoll surveys suggest two-party preferred is back where it started at the 2022 election.

As it usually does in the post-Christmas quiet spot, The Australian today brings us aggregated results from recent Newspoll surveys with voting intention and leaders’ ratings broken down by state and various demographic indicators. Unfortunately, only three polls have been conducted since the exercise was last conducted in mid-October, resulting in an unusually modest overall sample of 3655, breaking down to as little as 277 in the case of South Australia (with no repeat of the October aggregate’s inclusion of a Tasmanian result).

With due caution for the wide error margins, the state breakdowns are remarkable for how close they are to the results of the 2022 election, with Labor leading 51-49 in New South Wales (compared with 51.4-48.6 at the election), 55-45 in Victoria (54.8-45.2), 54-46 in Western Australia (55.0-45.0) and 55-45 in South Australia (54.0-46.0), and the Coalition leading 54-46 in Queensland (54.0-46.0). The gender breakdowns unusually find Labor in a slightly stronger position among men (leading 53-47, out from 51-49 in the October aggregate) than women (in from 56-44 to 52-48), but I would hesitate to read much into it at this stage. You can find most of the results by clicking on the relevant tabs in the BludgerTrack poll data feature.

UPDATE: There is also today a similar exercise from Nine Newspapers from its last three monthly Resolve Strategic polls, though the interest level is limited in this case by the fact that breakdowns for the three largest states are published with each poll. Whereas Newspoll finds no state swinging by more than 1% compared with the election, Resolve Strategic, which has been markedly more favourable for Labor than other pollsters, records a very wide range of results. The pollster does not provide two-party preferred numbers, but my own estimates suggest swings to Labor of around 3.5% in New South Wales, 3% in Victoria, 6.5% in Queensland and 9% in South Australia, and to the Coalition of around 2% in Western Australia. Also featured are breakdowns by three age cohorts, which follow the usual patterns.

Polls: RedBridge, Morgan and more Newspoll, plus NT leadership change (open thread)

One poll with Labor ahead, the other with a tie, further numbers from Newspoll on the leaders’ traits, and a vacancy in the top job at the Top End.

Roy Morgan might plough on this week with a poll to be dropped next Wednesday or so, but what follows are most likely the last items of polling we will see for the year. The Australian traditionally drops aggregated Newspoll breakdowns in the dead zone after Christmas, but it will only have three polls to aggregate from on this occasion, unless it supplements them somehow.

• RedBridge Group has a federal poll showing Labor leading 52.8-47.2 (in from 53.5-46.5 in the last such poll in early November), though seemingly all reportage of the poll has painted it as disastrous for Labor because the small sample of respondents with trades qualifications has the Coalition ahead. The primary votes are Labor 33% (down one), Coalition 35% (steady) and Greens 13% (down one). The accompanying report includes extensive further questions on national direction, issue salience and immigration. The poll was conducted December 6 to 11 from an unusually large sample of 2010.

• The latest weekly poll from Roy Morgan has a tie on two-party preferred, erasing Labor’s 51-49 lead over the previous two weeks. The primary votes are Labor 32% (up one-and-a-half), Coalition 38% (up one), Greens 11.5% (down two-and-a-half) and One Nation 4.5% (down half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1720.

• The Australian had further results from Newspoll on the leaders’ character traits, which it published in a comprehensive display showing earlier numbers for the results going back to 2008 which is worth seeking out if you’re interested in this sort of thing. Anthony Albanese had higher ratings for trustworthy (49% to 41%), in touch (46% to 41%), caring (61% to 45%), likeable (57% to 39%) and having a vision for Australia (59% to 55%), and was less likely to be seen as arrogant (45% to 57%). Peter Dutton led on experienced (70% to 66%), decisive and strong (58% to 48%) and understanding the major issues (57% to 54%).

• Northern Territory Chief Minister Natasha Fyles resigned yesterday after nineteen months in the job, amid revelations she had failed to declare a conflict of interest relating to shares in mining company South 32. It presumably didn’t help that a RedBridge Group poll, conducted in the middle of last month from a sample of 601, had Labor trailing the Country Liberals by 40.6% to 19.7% (although the poll found Labor doing little better federally, and its age breakdowns included the implausible finding that the gap was 40% to 11% among the 18-to-39 age cohort). Names mentioned as possible contenders are her deputy, Nicole Manison, Infrastructure Minister Joel Bowden and Attorney-General Chansey Paech.