Category: International Politics

European elections wrap

A pro-Western centrist wins the Romanian presidential runoff, but the left performs dismally in Portugal. Also: Canadian recounts and South Korean polls ahead of the June 3 election.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

On Sunday European elections were held in Romania, Portugal and Poland. At the Romanian presidential runoff election, the pro-Western centrist Nicușor Dan, who is a mathematician and the current mayor of Bucharest, defeated the far-right George Simion by a 53.6-46.4 margin. Dan had qualified for the runoff with 21.0% in the May 4 first round, edging out another pro-Western candidate who won 20.1%, while Simion dominated with 41.0%. This election was rerun after the first election in December was annulled by the courts owing to concerns about Russian influence.

Portugal used proportional representation by region to elect its 230 MPs. Four seats are reserved for expatriate Portuguese and won’t be decided until later. This was a snap election called after the conservative AD lost a confidence vote. The AD won 89 seats (up nine since the March 2024 election), the centre-left Socialists 58 (down 20), the far-right Chega 58 (up eight), the economically right Liberal Initiative nine (up one) and the Greens six (up two). This was the Socialists’ worst seat share since 1987.

Sunday was the first round of the Polish presidential election, with the runoff on June 1. Rafał Trzaskowski, the candidate of the centrist and pro-Western Civic Coalition, won 31.4%, followed by Karol Nawrocki, the candidate of the economically left but socially conservative Law and Justice (PiS) on 29.5% and the far-right Confederation on 14.8%. In runoff polling, Trzaskowski led in a first round exit poll by 47-38 with 15% undecided, and he has led in most runoff polls. A win for Trzaskowski would give the Civic Coalition and its allies, who have a parliamentary majority, control of government, with PiS currently holding the presidency.

In case you missed it (I posted this on the day of the Australian election), I had a results wrap of the May 1 UK local elections. The far-right Reform won 30% of the BBC’s Projected National Share, with Labour on 20%, the Liberal Democrats on 17% and the Conservatives on 15%. Since these elections, Reform has surged in national polls. In the Election Maps UK poll aggregate, Reform now has 29.1%, Labour 23.3%, the Conservatives 18.6%, the Lib Dems 14.2% and the Greens 8.9%.

The 140 Albanian parliamentary seats were elected using PR at the May 11 election. The governing Socialists won a fourth successive term, with 83 seats (up nine since 2021), the conservative Democrats won 50 seats (down 13) and others seven (up four). The election was marred by widespread misuse of public resources and institutional power by the Socialists.

Canada and South Korea

In my May 1 wrap of the April 28 Canadian federal election, I said the centre-left Liberals won 169 of the 343 seats, the Conservatives 144, the separatist left-wing Quebec Bloc (BQ) 22, the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) seven and the Greens one. It appears that rechecking put the Liberals ahead in a seat the Conservatives led, and the BQ ahead in a seat the Liberals led.

However, a recount in the BQ-led seat reversed the result, with the Liberals winning by just one vote, overturning a 44-vote BQ lead. A recount in a seat the Liberals won narrowly against the Conservatives confirmed the initial result. Results of two recounts are still pending, one with a narrow Liberal margin over the Conservatives and the other with a narrow Conservative margin over the Liberals. If remaining recounts confirm the initial results, the overall seat totals will be 170 Liberals, 143 Conservatives, 22 BQ, seven NDP and one Green, putting the Liberals two seats short of a majority.

The South Korean presidential election will be held on June 3, about two years earlier than scheduled after the previous president of the right-wing People Power Party (PPP) was impeached then removed from office. The president is elected by first past the post. Polls have the centre-left Democratic nominee, Lee Jae-myung, leading PPP’s Kim Moon-soo by between seven and 22 points. Democrats have a large parliamentary majority, so a win for Lee would give them control of government until the next parliamentary elections in 2028.

UK Runcorn and Helsby by-election live

The far-right Reform is a good chance to win this by-election, and is likely to gain massively at local elections. Also: a wrap of Monday’s Canadian election.

Results wrap

According to Wikipedia, Reform won 30% of the BBC’s Projected National Share (up 28 from the 2024 council elections), Labour 20% (down 14), the Lib Dems 17% (steady), the Tories 15% (down 10) and the Greens 11% (down two). If changes are measured from the last time these wards were contested in 2021, Reform is up 30, the Tories down 21, Labour down nine and the Lib Dems steady. It’s the first council elections where the combined share for the Tories and Labour has been below 50%.

With all 23 councils that held elections declared, Reform won 677 councillors (all new), the Lib Dems 370 (up 163), the Tories 317 (down 676), Labour 99 (down 186) and the Greens 80 (up 45). Councils controlled are 10 Reform (new), three Lib Dems (up three), zero Tories (down 16), zero Labour (down one) and ten with no overall control (up four). Of the six mayoralties contested, Labour won three, Reform two and the Tories one.

Live Commentary

8:48pm Slow progress in the council elections, with just over 150 out of over 1,600 total seats declared so far. Reform has 81 councillors (up 81), the Tories 42 (down 66), Labour 14 (down 13) and the Lib Dems nine (up five).

3:14pm Reform has GAINED Runcorn and Helsby from Labour by just six votes.

2:35pm Labour won the West of England and Doncaster mayoralties. In Doncaster, Labour was down 11 points to 32.6%, just ahead of Reform on 31.6% with 26.0% for the Tories. In W of England, Labour won25%, Reform 22%, the Greens 20%, the Tories 17% and the Lib Dems 14%.

1:55pm Labour won the North Tyneside mayoralty by 30.2-29.4 over Reform with 20.5% for the Tories. But Labour’s vote was down 23 points from 2021, while the Tories were down 11.

1:49pm There’s a recount in Runcorn and Helsby. It appears Reform were leading Labour by four votes going into the recount.

10:59am John Curtice says in nine wards that had the same boundaries as in 2021, the Tory vote is down 23 points and Labour down 10. The by-election declaration is expected about 12pm, which I’ll miss.

10:46am Friday So far Reform has won 15 councillors (up 15), the Tories six (down five) and Labour one (down nine).

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

A UK parliamentary by-election will occur today for the Labour-held Runcorn and Helsby, with polls closing at 7am AEST Friday. Labour MP Mike Amesbury resigned in March after being sentenced for assault. At the 2024 election, Labour defeated the far-right Reform in this seat by 52.9-18.1 with 16.0% for the Conservatives, 6.4% for the Greens and 5.1% for the Liberal Democrats. Two seat polls conducted in March gave Reform 3-5 point leads over Labour. Elections covered in this article all use first past the post.

UK local government elections will also be held today. These are held every May, but on a four-year cycle, so most seats up at these elections last faced election in 2021. The BBC calculates a Projected National Share (PNS) for each year’s elections, which allows results for a particular election to be compared to the previous year’s election, and also to the election four years ago. Only English councils are included in this year’s elections.

In 2021, the last time these seats were contested, Boris Johnson was popular, and the Conservatives won the PNS by 36-29 over Labour with 17% for the Lib Dems. In the 2024 local elections, held two months before the general election where Labour won a landslide, Labour won the PNS by 34-25 over the Conservatives, with 17% for the Lib Dems and 12% for the Greens. Usually, PNS only gives vote shares for Labour, the Conservatives and Lib Dems, but Reform should be included this year.

The Election Maps UK national poll aggregate gives Reform 25.4% of the vote (up 1.5 since my April 19 article), Labour 23.9% (down 0.5), the Conservatives 21.3% (down 1.2), the Lib Dems 13.7% (up 0.1) and the Greens 8.9% (down 0.1). Reform has overtaken Labour to lead. If these vote shares are reflected at the local elections, Reform will make massive gains at the expense of the Conservatives, with Labour also slumping. Polls conducted in April gave Labour leader and PM Keir Starmer a net approval below -30.

We are unlikely to see results from the parliamentary by-election until several hours after polls close. I will be out for two hours from 11am Friday. Given the proximity to the Australian election, I don’t intend to follow these elections as closely as I normally would.

Canadian election wrap

At Monday’s Canadian federal election, the centre-left Liberals won 169 of the 343 seats (up nine from 160 of 338 in 2021), the Conservatives won 144 seats (up 25), the separatist left-wing Quebec Bloc (BQ) 22 (down ten), the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) seven (down 18) and the Greens one (down one). The Liberals were three seats short of the 172 needed for a majority.

Vote shares were 43.7% Liberals (up 11.1%), 41.3% Conservatives (up 7.6), 6.3% BQ (down 1.3%) (27.9% in Quebec), 6.3% NDP (down 11.5%), 1.3% Greens (down 1.0%) and 0.7% for the far-right People’s (down 4.2%). Turnout was 68.7% (up 6.4%).

This election was far more proportional than in 2021. FPTP can be roughly proportional, but only if the two biggest parties get a high combined vote share, and there’s a small gap between these two parties. This election had the highest two-party share since 1958. It resembles the UK 2017 election, when the big two parties also surged.

The CBC Poll Tracker’s final aggregate of national polls gave the Liberals a 42.8-39.2 lead over the Conservatives, so the 3.6-point margin slightly overstated the Liberals’ 2.4-point election margin. Two of the three polls that had one-day surveys conducted the day before the election were very accurate, with Liaison giving the Liberals a two-point lead and Nanos a 2.7-point lead.

Seat estimates overstated the Liberals with the Tracker’s point estimate giving the Liberals a 189-125 seat lead. I said previously that I expected the Liberals’ vote efficiency to drop because of the crash in NDP support.

I believe the Liberals slid from a peak lead of 7.1 points in the Tracker on April 8 due to Mark Carney’s fading honeymoon from replacing Justin Trudeau as PM on March 14. Labor in Australia is not affected by a fading honeymoon.

Canadian election live

Live commentary on the Canadian results today. The Liberals remain ahead of the Conservatives in national vote share, and have a good chance to win a majority of seats.

Live Commentary

6:57am Wednesday The Liberals will hold a minority government after winning 169 of the 343 seats, three short of a majority. The Conservatives won 144 seats, the BQ 22, the NDP seven and the Greens one. National vote shares were 43.7% Liberals, 41.3% Conservatives, 6.3% BQ, 6.3% NDP 1.3% Greens and just 0.7% for the far-right People’s.

9:06pm There are still special ballots remaining to be counted, which are cast by mail by voters who will be away from their home divisions on election day. I expect these to favour the Liberals just like absent votes favour Labor in Aus. Counting will resume at 11:30pm AEST tonight. On current figures, the Liberals will be just short of a majority of seats. They’ve won or are leading in 168 (172 is needed for a majority). Poilievre lost his seat.

5:33pm NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has announced he will resign. The Liberals won Singh’s seat.

4:25pm I’ve done a write-up for The Conversation on the Canadian results, and also covered Trump’s slumping US ratings. Tory leader Pierre Poilievre is looking gone in his own seat of Carleton.

2:57pm Tory leader Pierre Poilievre is trailing the Libs by 51.6-45.1 in his own seat of Carleton with 145 of 266 booths in.

2:47pm The Tories have made a number of gains in British Columbia from the collapse of the NDP vote as it hasn’t all gone to the Libs in NDP-held seats.

1:52pm The Tories have gained Windsor West from the NDP because the Lib surge meant the anti-Tory vote in that seat was split between the Libs and NDP.

1:45pm The Liberals have won or are leading in 163 seats, the Tories in 147, the BQ in 24, the NDP in 10 and the Greens in one. Popular votes are 42.6% Libs to 41.7% Tories, 7.9% BQ and 5.4% NDP. With such a high two-party share, the smaller parties are doing well to win as many seats as they are. It looks as if the Lib vote was not as efficiently distributed as in 2021, as I predicted.

1:02pm The CBC’s results are back. The Libs lead by 44.0-40.9 on popular votes with 8% for the BQ and 4.9% NDP. Seats are 159 Libs, 143 Tories, 24 BQ, 10 NDP and one Green. On current counts, the Libs will be short of a majority.

12:40pm With some results from 319 of the 343 seats, it’s 158 Libs, 130 Tories, 23 BQ and eight NDP. If this holds, it wouldn’t quite be a majority for the Libs.

12:27pm CTV News results has the Libs leading or elected in 146 seats, the Tories in 113, the BQ in 24 and the NDP in five.

12:20pm The CBC’s results site has crashed! But they project the Liberals will form the next government, no projection yet for whether it’s minority or majority.

12:07pm The Libs are leading the seat count now by 108-79 with 16 BQ and 3 NDP. They lead the popular vote by 50.6-38.5. This is now looking like a Liberal landslide.

12:04pm The CBC has called a Lib GAIN from Tory in a Nova Scotia seat.

11:58am So far in Ontario, the most populous province with 121 seats, the Libs lead the Tories by 32-22 in seats although the Tories are leading on popular votes by 47.5-45.7. Rural booths are probably reporting first, so it’s likely there’s a pro-Tory bias in votes counted so far.

11:52am Libs leading in seats by 72-52 over Tories with 10 BQ and 1 NDP.

11:40am Libs now leading the seat count over the Tories by 37-26 on popular votes of 51.5-40.1. BQ leading in 12 seats and NDP in one.

11:29am With polls about to close in the large majority of Canada, Libs lead in seats by 22-10 and in popular votes by 52.2-40.4. Two Quebec seats were in Atlantic time and have reported results, with the BQ leading in both.

11:08am Liberal popular vote lead now just over ten points.

10:52am Liberals’ popular vote margin over the Tories up to eight points. I’ve read comments here from BTsays that pollsters had the Libs doing better with early votes than on election day. These votes won’t appear until later.

10:32am The CBC has called a GAIN for the Tories from the Libs in Long Range Mountain.

10:29am The Liberals are now leading the seat count by 22-9 and the vote count by 50-44. But they’re NOT 21 points ahead in Atlantic Canada.

10:06am The Liberals have now taken a three-point lead in popular votes.

10:01am The Liberals lead the Tories by 16 seats to 5, but the Tories lead in popular votes currently by 48-46. This isn’t looking like a 21-point Liberal popular vote margin in Atlantic Canada, but perhaps votes counted are mostly rural and/or the Liberals will do better once the pre-poll votes are counted.

9:44am In Newfoundland, the 2021 result was a Liberal win by 47.7-32.5 in popular votes over the Tories and the Liberals won six of the seven seats. Currently the Tories are leading by 52.1-42.5 in popular votes, although the Liberals are leading in four of the seven seats. Perhaps votes counted so far are more rural.

9:07am The first polls have closed in one of the small Atlantic provinces that’s 30 minutes ahead of the rest of Atl Can. The CBC results are here.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Results for the Canadian federal election will be out today. First past the post is used to elect the 343 MPs, with 172 seats required for a majority. Polls in the 32 Atlantic Canada seats close by 9:30am AEST. At 11:30am AEST, the large majority of polls close simultaneously owing to staggered polling hours across three time zones. At 12pm AEST, the final polls close in British Columbia (43 seats).

Vote counting will initially be fast, but will slow down as election-day booths are exhausted, with the final booths being early voting centres, like in Australia. Elections Canada said 7.3 million had voted during the advance voting period from April 18-21, an increase of 25% from 2021. This represents about 25% of all eligible voters. Canadian media don’t attempt to use booth-matched results. Seat totals are reported as “won” (called for a candidate) and “leading”.

The CBC Poll Tracker was updated for the final time late Sunday (the last pre-election day), and it gives the governing centre-left Liberals 42.8% of the vote (up 0.5 since my previous Canadian article on Saturday), the Conservatives 39.2% (up 0.6), the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) 8.1% (down 0.5), the separatist left-wing Quebec Bloc (BQ) 6.0% (steady) (26.1% in Quebec), the Greens 1.8% (down 0.5) and the far-right People’s 1.3% (down 0.1).

Seat point estimates are 189 Liberals (down one since Saturday), 125 Conservatives (steady), 23 BQ (up one), five NDP (steady) and one Green (steady). The Tracker now gives the Liberals a 70% chance of a majority, down from 73% previously. They have a 19% chance to win the most seats but not a majority. The Conservatives have a 10% chance to win the most seats and just a 1% chance of a majority. The polls would need to be very wrong for this to occur.

The Liberal lead over the Conservatives in the Tracker has fallen from its peak of 7.1 points on April 8 to 3.6 points now. The most likely reason for this movement is that Mark Carney’s honeymoon from replacing Justin Trudeau on March 14 as Liberal leader and PM has faded.

On Saturday night, at least 11 people were killed when an SUV drove into a crowd of Filipinos in Vancouver. This was likely a racist attack against Filipinos, so it shouldn’t hurt the Liberals. In Liaison, Nanos and Forum polls conducted Sunday (one-day polls), the Liberal lead was respectively 2, 2.7 and 4 points.

Atlantic Canada has four low-population provinces, and the Liberals hold a 21-point lead over the Conservatives in this region in the Tracker.  The early results from Atlantic Canada could give clues about how accurate the polls are.

The Liberal vote is more efficiently distributed than the Conservative vote owing to Conservative vote wastage in safe rural seats. At the 2021 election, the Liberals won 160 of the then 338 seats on 32.6%, with the Conservatives winning 119 seats on 33.7%.

However, there would have been many seats in 2021 where the Liberal’s margin was relatively low owing to a high NDP or BQ vote. With support for the NDP halved from 17.8% in 2021, the Liberal margin in these seats will increase, leading to more Liberal vote wastage and a less efficiently distributed vote.

UK local elections and a parliamentary by-election on Thursday

UK local government elections and aparliamentary by-election in Labour-held Runcorn and Helsby will be held on Thursday, with polls closing at 7am AEST Friday. I don’t expect results from the by-election for several hours after polls close. I previously covered these elections on April 19.

Canadian election minus three days

The Liberals’ lead narrows ahead of the Canadian election results on Tuesday AEST, but they are still likely to win a majority of seats. Other upcoming and past elections are also covered.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

The Canadian federal election will be held on Monday, with first past the post used to elect the 343 MPs; 172 seats are required for a majority. Polls close on Tuesday AEST, with polls in the 32 Atlantic Canada seats closed by 9:30am AEST Tuesday. At 11:30am AEST, the large majority of polls close simultaneously owing to staggered polling hours across three time zones. At 12pm AEST, the final polls close in British Columbia (43 seats).

Vote counting will initially be fast, but will slow down as election-day booths are exhausted, with the final booths being early voting centres, like in Australia. Elections Canada said 7.3 million had voted during the advance voting period from April 18-21, an increase of 25% from 2021. This represents about 25% of all eligible voters.

The CBC Poll Tracker was updated Friday, and it gives the governing centre-left Liberals 42.3% of the vote (down 1.7 since my previous Canadian article last Saturday), the Conservatives 38.6% (up 1.5), the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) 8.6% (up 0.1), the separatist left-wing Quebec Bloc (BQ) 6.0% (up 0.6) (25.6% in Quebec), the Greens 2.3% (down 0.1) and the far-right People’s 1.4% (down 0.3).

Seat point estimates are 190 Liberals (down 11 since last Saturday), 125 Conservatives (up nine), 22 BQ (up two), five NDP (steady) and one Green (steady). The Tracker now gives the Liberals a 73% chance of a majority, down from 87% previously. They have a 17% chance to win the most seats but not a majority. A Canadian YouGov MRP poll has a Liberal majority, with 185 seats as its central prediction.

Atlantic Canada has four low-population provinces, and the Liberals hold a 20-point lead over the Conservatives in this region in the Tracker.  The early results from Atlantic Canada could give clues about how accurate the polls are.

The Liberal vote is more efficiently distributed than the Conservative vote owing to Conservative vote wastage in safe rural seats. At the 2021 election, the Liberals won 160 of the then 338 seats on 32.6%, with the Conservatives winning 119 seats on 33.7%.

However, there would have been many seats in 2021 where the Liberal’s margin was relatively low owing to a high NDP or BQ vote. With support for the NDP halved from 17.8% in 2021, the Liberal margin in these seats will increase, leading to more Liberal vote wastage and a less efficiently distributed vote.

I covered the Canadian election and Donald Trump’s sliding US ratings for The Conversation on Wednesday. Since this article, Trump’s net approval has slid a further 2.4 points to -7.8 in Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls (52.2% disapprove, 44.4% approve).

Poland, Romania and Ecuador

The Polish presidential election will be held on May 18 with a runoff on June 1. Incumbent Andrzej Duda of the socially right but economically left PiS can’t run again. There had been a surge for the far-right KON’s candidate, but that surge has abated, and the final two will likely be the economically conservative but socially liberal PO’s candidate against PiS. The PO is likely to win, and thus gain control of government after winning the October 2023 parliamentary election.

In December the Romanian courts annulled the presidential election results shortly before the runoff, and there will be a re-run on May 4 (first round) and May 18 (runoff). The courts rejected the nomination of the far-right candidate who had won the original first round. Another far-right candidate is very likely to win the first round, with the polls disagreeing on which of three candidates will also qualify for the runoff.

At the April 13 Ecuadorian presidential runoff election, the incumbent economic conservative defeated the left’s candidate by 55.6-44.4. However, the left will control parliament, which was elected on February 9 by proportional representation, with 67 of the 151 seats for the main left-wing coalition and nine for an indigenous left-wing party, to 70 seats for conservative parties.

Canadian election minus nine days

The Liberal lead drops slightly, but they are still likely to win a seat majority on April 28. Also covered: the May 1 UK local elections and a parliamentary by-election.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

The Canadian federal election will be held on April 28, with first past the post used to elect the 343 MPs; 172 seats are required for a majority. The CBC Poll Tracker was updated Friday, and it gives the governing centre-left Liberals 43.7% of the vote (down 0.3 since my previous Canadian article on April 10), the Conservatives 37.7% (up 0.6), the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) 8.5% (steady), the separatist left-wing Quebec Bloc (BQ) 5.4% (steady) (23.7% in Quebec), the Greens 2.4% (steady) and the far-right People’s 1.7% (steady).

Seat point estimates are 197 Liberals (down four since my April 10 article), 122 Conservatives (up six), 18 BQ (down two), five NDP (steady) and one Green (steady). The Tracker now gives the Liberals an 88% chance of a majority if the election were held now, up from 87% previously. The Liberal lead had dropped to 5.3 points in Thursday’s Tracker update before recovering on Friday.

The Liberal vote is more efficiently distributed than the Conservative vote owing to Conservative vote wastage in very safe rural seats. At the 2021 election, the Liberals won 160 of the then 338 seats on 32.6%, with the Conservatives winning 119 seats on 33.7%.

There were two leaders’ debates: a French debate on Wednesday and an English debate on Thursday. Both debates had the leaders of the NDP and BQ as well as the Liberal and Conservative leaders. A snap Abacus Data poll, taken after the English debate, gave Liberal leader and PM Mark Carney a net +37 positive rating, while Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre had a net +23 positive rating. The NDP and BQ leaders did not impress voters.

We will need to wait three more days for voting intention polls to be fully taken after both debates. These debates were probably the last opportunity for a Conservative revival before the election. Unless the polls are significantly overstating the Liberals, the Liberals should win.

In an early April YouGov Canadian poll, by 64-25, respondents said the US was unfriendly or an enemy (50-33 in February). By 84-11, they opposed Canada becoming part of the US. If they had been able to vote in the 2024 US presidential election, Kamala Harris would have defeated Donald Trump by 57-18 among Canadians.

UK local elections and parliamentary by-election

UK local government elections will be held on May 1. These are held every May, but on a four-year cycle, so most seats up at these elections last faced election in 2021. The BBC calculates a Projected National Share (PNS) for each year’s elections, which allows results for a particular election to be compared to the previous year’s election, and also to the election four years ago. Only English councils are included in this year’s elections.

In 2021, the last time these seats were contested, Boris Johnson was popular, and the Conservatives won the PNS by 36-29 over Labour with 17% for the Liberal Democrats. In the 2024 local elections, held two months before the general election where Labour won a landslide, Labour won the PNS by 34-25 over the Conservatives, with 17% for the Lib Dems and 12% for the Greens. Usually PNS only gives vote shares for Labour, the Conservatives and Lib Dems, but the far-right Reform should be included this year.

The Election Maps UK national poll aggregate gives Labour 24.4% of the vote, Reform 23.9%, the Conservatives 22.5%, the Lib Dems 13.6% and the Greens 9.0%. If these vote shares are reflected at the local elections, Reform will make massive gains at the expense of the Conservatives, with Labour also slumping. Polls conducted in April give Labour leader and PM Keir Starmer a net approval below -30.

There will also be a parliamentary by-election on May 1 for the Labour-held Runcorn and Helsby. Labour MP Mike Amesbury resigned in March after being sentenced for assault. At the 2024 election, Labour defeated Reform in this seat by 52.9-18.1 with 16.0% for the Conservatives, 6.4% for the Greens and 5.1% for the Lib Dems. Two seat polls conducted in March gave Reform 3-5 point leads over Labour.

Canadian election minus 18 days

A big Liberal seat majority in Canada is becoming more likely. Also covered: South Korea’s president removed from office and a new presidential election required.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

The Canadian federal election will be held on April 28, with first past the post used to elect the 343 MPs; 172 seats are required for a majority. The CBC Poll Tracker was updated Wednesday, and it gives the governing centre-left Liberals 44.0% of the vote (up 2.0 since my previous Canadian article on April 1), the Conservatives 37.1% (down 0.4), the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) 8.5% (down 0.6), the separatist left-wing Quebec Bloc (BQ) 5.4% (down 0.1) (23.9% in Quebec), the Greens 2.4% (down 0.4) and the far-right People’s 1.7% (down 0.5).

Seat point estimates are 201 Liberals (up four since my April 1 article), 116 Conservatives (down seven), 20 BQ (up one), five NDP (up two) and one Green (steady). The Tracker now gives the Liberals an 87% chance of a majority if the election were held now, up from 80% previously.

The Liberals and Conservatives have a combined 81.1% in the Tracker. If replicated at the election, this would be the highest two-party vote since 1958. The Conservatives need the NDP, BQ and Greens to regain support at the Liberals’ expense. But a Léger poll has remaining NDP and BQ voters strongly supporting a Liberal government (majority or minority) over a Conservative one.

On April 2, Donald Trump announced his big “Liberation Day” tariffs. In the following two sessions (April 3-4), US stock markets suffered brutal losses. On Wednesday US time, Trump said tariffs above 10% on countries other than China would be paused for 90 days, but tariffs on China would increase to 125% after both China and the US had engaged in a trade war. US stocks surged to their biggest one-day gain since 2008. Trump’s net approval in Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls has dropped 2.5 points since my April 1 article to -5.0.

Trump’s tariff chaos in the last week has not had a large impact on the Canadian election, with the Liberal lead up from six points to seven. Canada has already had large doses of Trump’s tariffs, so further doses probably have diminishing returns. With the Liberals ahead by seven points in national polls and well above a majority of seats, they are the likely winners of the election. In early January, the Conservatives were 24 points ahead and headed for a landslide.

New South Korean presidential election required

On December 3, former South Korean right-wing president Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law, and was impeached for this by parliament on December 14 with 204 “yes” votes, just over the 200 needed for a two-thirds majority of the 300 MPs. Last Friday, the Constitutional Court unanimously upheld Yoon’s impeachment.

While the court was deliberating, Yoon had been suspended, and the PM had assumed his powers. After the court’s ruling, Yoon was removed from office, and the next presidential election was required by June 3, about two years early. The election will be held on June 3, with this day (a Tuesday) being declared a public holiday.

The president is elected by FPTP. The major parties are the centre-left Democrats and Yoon’s People Power Party (PPP). Major party nominees have not yet been chosen, but hypothetical polling gives Lee Jae-myung, the current Democratic leader, a double-digit lead over all potential PPP candidates.

Parliamentary elections are held separately from presidential elections. At the last parliamentary elections in April 2024, Democrats and their allies defeated the PPP by 188 seats to 108, out of 300 total seats. Winning the presidential election would give Democrats control of government until the 2028 parliamentary elections.

Canadian election and US special elections

Poll movement to the Liberals continues in Canada, putting them well over a majority of seats. Also covered: two US federal special elections in safe Republican seats.

Live Commentary

4:36pm Crawford wins by 55.1-44.9 in the Wisconsin state supreme court election with nearly all votes counted. That’s an 11-point swing to the left from the Trump margin in Wisconsin in 2024. The left retains its 4-3 majority on the Wisconsin state supreme court.

12:29pm With 13% reporting in Wisconsin, the left-wing Crawford leads the right-wing Schimel by 51-49 for the supreme court election. I’ll be going out shortly.

11:52am Near-final results are 56.7-42.7 to the Rep in Fl-6, a 14.0-pt margin, and 57.0-42.2 to the Rep in Fl-1, a 14.8-pt margin.

11:28am With 89% counted in Fl-1, the Rep leads by 55.4-43.8. The Reps will win both Fl-1 and Fl-6 by about 13 points, down from Trump’s 37-point margin in 2024 in Fl-1 and 30 points in Fl-6. So big swings to the Dems, but not enough to seriously threaten the Rep holds of these seats. Reps extend their House seat lead to 220-213.

11:13am With all counties in Fl-1 reporting their early votes, the Rep leads by 49.8-49.4, and this lead will grow when election day votes come in.

11:07am The Dem takes a likely very brief 51-48 lead after a populous county’s early vote reported.

11:03am In Florida’s first, the Rep starts out with a 53-46 lead with 10% in. These are early votes, and the Reps did much better on election day.

10:47am Trump will announce new tariffs at 7am AEDT Thursday, so they won’t be imposed today.

10:30am With 72% counted including votes from all counties in this district, the Rep leads by 53.7-45.6, and will win by at least a double digit margin.

10:14am With 49% counted, the Rep takes the lead by 50.6-48.6, and is very likely to win once all votes are counted.

10:03am With 24% reporting in Fl 6, the Dem leads by 53-45. But these are just early votes, and don’t yet account for the Rep election day surge.

9:53am New York Times results are here. While Reps performed weaker than expected in early voting, they’ve had a massive surge on election day in the Florida specials that should get their candidates home easily. This is just party registration data, not votes for candidates.

9:45am Wednesday The addition of polls released Monday has pushed the Liberals up to a 43.2-37.4 vote lead over the Conservatives in the CBC Poll Tracker and a 203-116 seat lead.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

The Canadian federal election will be held on April 28, with first past the post used to elect the 343 MPs; 172 seats are required for a majority. The CBC Poll Tracker was updated Monday, and it gives the governing centre-left Liberals 42.0% of the vote (up 4.5 since my previous Canadian article on March 24), the Conservatives 37.5% (up 0.4), the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) 9.1% (down 2.5), the separatist left-wing Quebec Bloc (BQ) 5.5% (down 0.9) (24.6% in Quebec), the Greens 2.8% (down 1.0) and the far-right People’s 2.2% (steady).

Seat point estimates are 197 Liberals (up 23 since my March 24 article), 123 Conservatives (down 11), 19 BQ (down seven), three NDP (down four) and one Green (down one). The Tracker now gives the Liberals an 80% chance of a majority if the election were held now, up from 50% previously. The consolidation of the left-wing vote behind the Liberals is hurting the smaller left-wing parties. The NDP won 25 of the then 338 seats at the 2021 election, but could be wiped out at this election.

This has been a stunning comeback for the Liberals, who were 24 points behind the Conservatives in the Tracker in early January, with the Conservatives winning well over 200 seats. Mark Carney’s replacement of Justin Trudeau as Liberal leader and PM has lifted the Liberals, but I believe Donald Trump is most responsible for the Liberals’ revival. There are still four weeks until the election, so the polls could still turn back in the Conservatives’ favour. But the Liberals are currently ahead.

Trump is set to impose more tariffs at 3pm AEDT Wednesday, and these tariffs could further assist the Liberals in Canada and Labor in Australia. In Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Trump’s net approval is -2.5, slightly down from -2.1 in my previous article.

US federal special elections

Polls close for US federal House special elections (by-elections in Australia) at 10am AEDT Wednesday in Florida’s sixth and 11am in Florida’s first. Florida counts its votes fast. Both seats are safe Republican, with Trump beating Kamala Harris by 30 points in the sixth and 37 in the first according to this spreadsheet of 2024 presidential results by Congressional District. Two polls in the sixth average out to a near-tie between the Democratic and Republican candidates; these polls are difficult to believe.

Republicans hold a 218-213 House majority, so winning these two seats will make it 220-213. Two Democratic members have died recently; they held Arizona’s seventh (Harris by 22) and Texas’ 18th (Harris by 40). The special in Arizona won’t occur until September, while the Texan special has not yet been scheduled. Trump had nominated Elise Stefanik, Republican member for New York’s 21st (Trump by 21), to be his UN ambassador, but he withdrew this nomination on Thursday as Republicans were worried about this seat.

G. Elliott Morris, who used to run FiveThirtyEight before it was axed, said that 14 state special elections have been held so far this year. On average, Democrats are performing ten points better than the Trump vs Harris presidential margin in those same districts.

The swing to Democrats in in line with what occurred in state special elections in 2017, the first year of Trump’s first term. Morris said this does not necessarily reflect a swing in the general electorate towards Democrats, but just that Democrats do well with high-engagement voters, who are most likely to vote in low-turnout specials.

As well as the specials, there will be a Wisconsin state supreme court election, with polls closing at 12pm AEDT Wednesday. While court elections in Wisconsin are officially nonpartisan, Schimel is the right-wing candidate, and is being heavily backed by Elon Musk. Crawford is the left-wing candidate, and the left currently has a 4-3 court majority, with this seat a left defence. Republican-aligned polls have Crawford ahead. Wisconsin voted for Trump by 0.9 points. I will be out on Wednesday afternoon.

Canadian election called for April 28

Mark Carney calls the Canadian federal election just before parliament was due to resume, with the Liberals narrowly ahead of the Conservatives in the polls.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

On March 9, Mark Carney, former governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, was elected Liberal leader with 86% of points and 87% of the popular vote. On March 14, Carney replaced Justin Trudeau as Canadian PM. On Sunday (Canadian time), Carney called the Canadian federal election for April 28, about six months early.

Parliament had been due to resume on Monday after it was prorogued for the Liberal leadership election. The governing centre-left Liberals won 160 of the then 338 seats at the September 2021 election, ten short of a majority, and have been reduced to 152 through by-election losses and defections. Carney is not an MP, so he could not address parliament (he will contest Nepean at the election). Perhaps owing to these difficulties, Carney called the election early.

There will be 343 seats elected by first past the post at this election, up from 338 in 2021, so 172 seats will be needed for a majority. The CBC Poll Tracker was updated Sunday, and it gives the Liberals 37.5%, the Conservatives 37.1%, the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) 11.6%, the separatist left-wing Quebec Bloc (BQ) 6.4% (28.4% in Quebec), the Greens 3.8% and the far-right People’s 2.2%. Seat predictions are 174 Liberals, just over a majority, 134 Conservatives, 26 BQ, seven NDP and two Greens.

In early January, just before Trudeau announced he would resign once a new Liberal leader had been elected, vote shares in the Tracker were 44% Conservative, 20% Liberal and 19% NDP. At this point, the Conservatives looked headed for a massive landslide with well over 200 seats, while the Liberals could have fallen into third behind the BQ.

Donald Trump is probably most responsible for the Liberal revival, with his tariffs and his talk of making Canada the 51st US state pushing Canadians back to supporting the Liberals. Trump is expected to impose more tariffs on April 2, possibly assisting the Liberals further. I believe Trump’s tariffs and associated stock market falls have also helped Labor in Australia.

However, I don’t believe in momentum in elections: just because one party is gaining ground in the polls doesn’t mean that party will continue to gain ground. The massive surge for the Liberals could reverse during the election campaign, perhaps as voters refocus on stuff they don’t like about the Liberals after nearly ten years of Liberal government since Trudeau was first elected in October 2015.

US and Portugal

In Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Trump has a net approval of -2.1 (49.6% disapprove, 47.5% approve). His net approval turned negative on March 11. Trump has fallen from +12 net approval at the start of his term.

A Portuguese parliamentary election will be held on May 18, only 14 months after the March 2024 election. The early election came after the conservative AD, which governed in minority with support from the far-right Chega, lost a confidence vote. Polls indicate another AD-led minority government is likely. Portugal uses proportional representation by region to elect its 230 MPs.

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