Category: International Politics

US Georgia 14 federal special election jungle primary live

After Marjorie Taylor Greene’s resignation, her safe Republican seat will be contested today. Also covered: upcoming elections in Denmark and Hungary, and the Nepalese election result.

Live Commentary

1:08pm With 99% reporting, Dem Harris wins 37.3% and Rep Fuller 34.9%, with another Rep the next highest at 11.6%. Two other Dems combined for 2.4%, for a Dem total of 39.7%. That’s a more than eight-point swing to the Dems from the 2024 Trump and Harris vote shares, but Fuller should easily win the April 7 runoff.

11:51am While Dem Harris won 43% of the early in-person vote, he’s so far only winning 27% of the election day vote. With 75% overall reporting, Harris’ share of the overall vote has fallen to 38.0%, with two other Dems combining for 2.4%.

11:32am With 61% reporting, Dem Harris and Rep Fuller have been called as advancing to an April 7 runoff, with current vote shares of 39.9% Harris and 34.2% Fuller. There’s more votes outstanding in Dem favouring counties.

11:03am With all counties in Georgia 14 reporting some results and 49% counted overall, Dem Harris has 42.3% and Rep Fuller 33.1%. Election day votes will likely favour Reps, so the Dems won’t do as well as the current massive swing towards them suggests. This seat voted for Trump by 68.2-31.3 in 2024.

10:44am With 33% in, Dem Harris has taken the lead with 44.3%, followed by Rep Fuller at 33.6%. The other two Dems combined are only at 2.3%. Early votes will likely favour Dems relative to the final results.

10:24am With 3% reporting, Rep Fuller has 43.4% and Dem Harris 34.5%, with the next highest two Reps at 8.3% and 6.9% respectively. Fuller and Harris are likely to go to a runoff unless Fuller wins outright with over 50% today

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Polls close at 10am AEDT today for a jungle primary federal special election in Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene’s former Georgia 14 seat after she resigned on January 5. At a jungle primary, many Republicans and Democrats compete, and the top two, regardless of party, go to a runoff, unless one candidate wins over 50%. If needed, the runoff will be on April 7.

There are 16 Republican and three Democratic candidates. As well as who makes the top two, I will follow how well Republicans and Democrats do overall. At the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump defeated Kamala Harris in Georgia 14 by 68.2-31.3, a 36.9-point margin. At the 25 state special elections held so far in 2026, Democrats have performed on average 10.9 points better than the Trump vs Harris margin in those same seats.

Republicans hold a 218-214 House of Representatives majority with two other vacancies. A special election in New Jersey’s 11th will occur on April 16 after Democrat Mikie Sherill was elected NJ governor in November 2025. The Republican member for California’s first died in early January, with the special to be held on August 4.

In Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Trump’s net approval is -13.6, virtually unchanged from when the Iran war started. While the war had caused skyrocketing oil prices, they fell back Monday on speculation Trump would chicken out. In Silver’s aggregate of the generic ballot, Democrats lead Republicans by 5.3 points, with this margin little changed in the last six weeks. Midterm elections occur this November.

In gerrymandering news, the Virginia Supreme Court overturned a lower court decision, thus clearing the way for an April 21 referendum. A “yes” vote at the referendum will implement a 10-1 Democratic gerrymander of Virginia’s 11 federal House seats, a four-seat gain for Democrats. There have been two referendum polls so far, with “yes” leading by eight points in one, while “no” leads by eight in the other.

Upcoming Danish and Hungarian elections

Of the 179 Danish MPs, 175 are elected in Denmark and two each in Greenland and Faroe Islands by proportional representation with a 2% threshold. The March 24 election was called eight months early. Polls have the current government of centre-left A and two more conservative parties facing defeat, but the overall vote for left-wing parties (Red bloc) is usually ahead of that for right-wing parties (Blue bloc).

Of the 199 Hungarian MPs, 106 will be elected by first past the post and the remaining 93 by national proportional representation with a 5% threshold. Since the 2022 election, the conservative and pro-European Tisza has become the main challenger to Viktor Orbán’s governing far-right Fidesz. Owing to pro-Fidesz gerrymandering, Tisza is expected to need a 3-5 point lead in the popular vote to win a majority of seats.

Polls for the April 12 election are contradictory. Pollsters allied with Fidesz give Fidesz leads, but independent or opposition-allied pollsters give Tisza large leads. At the 2022 election, polls were not contradictory, but they all understated Fidesz’s margin over the then opposition United for Hungary alliance by at least six points.

Nepalese and German state elections

An election occurred in Nepal last Thursday after the previous government collapsed in September 2025 following student-led protests about its authoritarian tendencies and nepotism. Of the 275 seats, 165 were elected by FPTP and 110 by national PR with a 3% threshold. The reformist Rastriya Swatantra Party won 125 of the 165 FPTP seats. With proportional seats now allocated, they won 47.9% of the national vote and 182 of the 275 total seats.

German elections effectively use PR with a 5% threshold. At Sunday’s state election in Baden-Württemberg, the Greens won 56 of the 157 seats (down two since 2021), the conservative CDU 56 (up 14), the far-right AfD 35 (up 18) and the centre-left SPD ten (down nine). The Left party and the pro-business FDP missed the 5% threshold, with each winning 4.4%, as the FDP lost its 18 seats. The only coalition capable of reaching the 79 seats needed for a majority that doesn’t include the AfD is a Greens/CDU coalition.

UK Gorton and Denton by-election live

Polls point to a close by-election result in a normally safe seat for UK Labour. Also covered: Welsh and Scottish elections on May 7 and recent elections in Thailand and Bangladesh.

Live Commentary

4:09pm Regarding Reform’s performance, this seat was a very left-wing seat. If Reform gains 15% nationally at the next election, they are likely to win a large number of seats. Even if you take away the 6% drop for the Conservatives, it’s still an overall swing to the right of 9%. The Workers Party didn’t stand at the by-election after getting 10.3% at the 2024 election in this seat, so left-wing parties were overall about 8% below their 2024 result.

3:39pm The Greens have GAINED Gorton and Denton from Labour, beating Reform by 12 points with Labour a further 3.3 points behind in third.

2:44pm The podium for the results announcement has been set up.

1:56pm The BBC reports a Greens source says they are very confident of a win.

1:17pm As a general comment on UK elections, it would be FAR better to have vote counting from booths reported publicly, which would usually give us a result in the first two hours after polls close. Instead all we have are party sources until the result is officially declared.

12:50pm A Reform source is claiming that Labour will come third.

12:38pm The BBC reports Labour sources say it’s been a good night for the Greens, turning out support in a way they wouldn’t be able to replicate at a general election according to these sources. Turnout for the by-election is 47.6%, which is actually UP 0.8% on the turnout in this seat at the 2024 general election.

11:30am The BBC says a result is expected between 3am and 4am UK time (2pm to 3pm AEDT).

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Polls close at 9am AEDT today for the parliamentary by-election for the UK Labour-held seat of Gorton and Denton. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 50.8%, followed by the far-right Reform with 14.1%, the Greens with 13.2%, the Workers Party with 10.3% and the Conservatives with 7.9%. I previously related that Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham was blocked from running as Labour’s candidate for this by-election.

There have been two small-sample polls for the by-election. In the Omnisis poll, the Greens led Reform by 33-29 with 26% for Labour. In Opinium, the Greens and Labour were tied at 28% each with 27% for Reform. If Reform wins such a left-wing seat, it will highlight the UK’s bad first past the post system.

The Election Maps UK aggregate of national polls has Reform leading with 28.2%, followed by Labour at 19.8%, the Conservatives 18.8%, the Greens 14.1% and the Liberal Democrats 12.5%. There has been some movement to the Greens and against Reform in the last two weeks. But with FPTP, Reform still wins a clear majority with 348 of the 660 House of Commons seats.

Upcoming Welsh and Scottish elections

Welsh and Scottish parliamentary elections and English local government elections will occur on May 7. Labour has been the dominant party at Welsh elections since the first devolved election in 1999, winning half or just under half the seats. At this election, there will be 96 members elected in 16 six-member electorates by proportional representation. This reform scraps the FPTP seats.

The Election Maps UK aggregate gives the left-wing Welsh nationalist Plaid Cymru 28.2%, followed by Reform at 27.9%, Labour 17.7%, the Conservatives 11.6%, the Greens 7.4% and the Lib Dems 5.7%. Labour has been rising recently with a dip for Plaid and the Greens. Seat projections give Plaid 33 seats, Reform 32, Labour 19, the Conservatives nine, the Greens two and the Lib Dems one. If this occurs, Plaid and Labour combined would be able to govern.

Of the 129 Scottish seats, 73 are elected by FPTP and 56 are list seats, with the list seats used to maintain overall proportionality, so that parties that win a large number of FPTP seats don’t win many list seats. The Scottish National Party (SNP) has dominated since 2011.

In the Election Maps UK aggregate, the SNP has 34.5% of the vote in the FPTP seats, followed by 19.5% for Reform, 16.2% Labour, 10.3% Conservatives, 9.1% Lib Dems and 7.6% Greens. Seat projections give the SNP 58, Reform 23, Labour 17, the Conservatives 12, the Greens ten and the Lib Dems nine. If this occurs, the SNP will hold government with the Greens’ support.

Thai and Bangladeshi elections

Of the 500 Thai lower house seats, 400 are elected by FPTP and 100 by national PR. At the February 8 election, the conservative populist Bhumjaithai won 193 seats (up 122 since the 2023 election), the left-wing People’s 118 (down 33), the populist Pheu Thai 74 (down 67), the centre-right Kia Tham 58 (new) and the conservative Democrats 22 (down three).

This is the first time a conservative party has won the most seats in a Thai election in the 21st century. Bhumjaithai won 174 of the 400 FPTP seats and Kia Tham 56, while People’s won 87 and Pheu Thai 58. Popular votes in the FPTP seats were 29.9% Bhumjaithai, 23.6% People’s, 17.3% Pheu Thai and 11.5% Kia Tham.

Of the 350 Bangladeshi seats, 300 are elected by FPTP with the remaining 50 reserved for women who are appointed proportionally to the elected members. The February 12 election was the first since the July 2024 uprising that forced the authoritarian Awami League from power. The Awami League, which was the centre-left major party before it became authoritarian, was banned at this election.

The somewhat conservative Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) won 209 of the 299 FPTP seats (one seat’s election was postponed owing to a candidate’s death). The Islamist Jamaat won 68 seats. Vote shares had the BNP defeating Jamaat by 50.0-31.8.

UK by-election, US special elections and Japanese election

A UK by-election looms in a safe Labour seat, three federal US special elections to be held by August, and the conservative LDP wins by a landslide in Japan.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

The parliamentary by-election for the UK Labour-held seat of Gorton and Denton will occur on February 26. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 50.8%, followed by the far-right Reform with 14.1%, the Greens with 13.2%, the Workers Party with 10.3% and the Conservatives with 7.9%.

Andy Burnham, Labour mayor of Greater Manchester, was blocked from standing by Labour’s National Executive Committee. The public reason was concerns about a by-election for Greater Manchester mayor, but Burnham was seen as a potential challenger to Keir Stamer’s Labour leadership. He needed a seat in the House of Commons to be Labour leader.

The Election Maps UK national poll aggregate gives Reform 29.8%, Labour 20.3%, the Conservatives 18.8%, the Greens 13.4% and the Liberal Democrats 12.4%. After dipping to third in December, Labour has edged back ahead of the Conservatives. On these vote shares, Reform would win a clear majority with 345 of the 650 Commons seats.

Upcoming US federal special elections

On January 31, Democrat Christian Menefee defeated a fellow Democrat to win the runoff for the Texas 18th federal House seat. The runoff occurred as no candidate won over 50% in the November 4 “jungle primary”.  This seat was vacant for almost 11 months. Republicans now lead Democrats by 218-214 in the House of Representatives.

There are three upcoming federal specials. Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene resigned her Georgia House seat on January 5, and a jungle primary special will occur March 10. It’s unlikely anyone will get over 50%, so a runoff will need to be scheduled. Democrat Mikie Sherrill was elected New Jersey governor in November, and a special for her House seat will occur April 16. A California Republican died on January 6, with the special to occur August 4.

In gerrymandering news, the Supreme Court in December reversed a lower court ruling that had annulled the Texas Republican gerrymander. This means Republicans can gain an additional five seats from Texas by gerrymandering. However, the Court on February 4 upheld California’s retaliatory Democratic gerrymander that will give Democrats five additional seats.

Virginia Democrats have proposed a 10-1 Democratic gerrymander of Virginia’s 11 House seats, gaining four seats. This will need a referendum to approve, with a poll having “yes” to gerrymandering leading by 51-43. A court has blocked this gerrymander, but Democrats are appealing.

Midterm elections of all the House and one-third of the Senate will occur this November. In Nate Silver’s generic ballot aggregate, Democrats lead Republicans by 47.9-42.3, a 5.6-point margin. Democrats’ position has improved since last November. Donald Trump’s net approval in Silver’s aggregate is -14.4, near his worst this term of -15.0.

Conservative LDP landslide at Japanese election

The Japanese lower house election occurred Sunday, just 15 months after the last election in late 2024. In 2024, the conservative Liberal Democratic Party and its Komeito allies lost their combined majority. After Sanae Takaichi was elected LDP leader and PM in October, Komeito split from the LDP, forcing the LDP to ally with another right-wing party (Ishin). At this election, Komeito allied with the centre-left Constitutional Democratic Party to form the Centrist Reform Alliance (CRA).

Of the 465 seats, 289 were elected by first past the post and 176 by 11 multi-member electorates using proportional representation. The LDP won 316 seats (up 125 since 2024), with the CRA winning just 49 (down 123) and Ishin 36 (up two). The LDP’s 316 seats is the most ever for a party in Japan. In the FPTP seats, the LDP defeated the CRA by 249-7 on vote shares of 49.2-21.6. The LDP has governed almost continuously since its formation in 1955.

Portugal and Chile

At Sunday’s Portuguese presidential runoff election, the centre-left Socialist candidate defeated the far-right Chega candidate by 66.8-33.2. While this was a good result for the left, the presidency is largely symbolic. At May 2025 legislative elections, the Socialists finished third behind the conservative PSD and Chega.

I previously covered the November Chile legislative elections and first round of the presidential election. At the December 14 presidential runoff, right-winger José Antonio Kast defeated Communist Jeannette Jara by 58.2-41.8. Kast replaces left-winger Gabriel Boric as president.

UK and other countries’ polls

How the polls are going in the UK, major western European countries and in three countries that hold elections in 2026.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Instead of an article about an international election, this article covers polls in eight countries. In the UK, the Election Maps UK national poll aggregate has the far-right Reform leading with 27.3%, followed by the Conservatives at 20.0%, Labour at 18.5%, the Liberal Democrats at 14.1% and the Greens at 13.9%.

Labour’s long slide since winning the 2024 election has continued as they’ve fallen into third place, while the Conservatives have recently regained ground from Reform. The Greens have been rising since early September.

With the UK’s first past the post system, Reform would win a narrow majority at an election held now, with 330 of the 650 House of Commons seats. Labour would win just 82 seats, the Lib Dems 77, the Conservatives 55, the Scottish National Party 46 and the Greens 26.

All recent polls have PM Keir Starmer’s net approval below -40, with a YouGov poll giving him his worst score at -61 (76% negative, 15% positive). While Reform leader Nigel Farage and Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch’s net approvals are both in double digit negative territory, they are much better than Starmer’s.

Polls in major western European countries (Germany, France, Italy and Spain)

Since the February German election, the far-right AfD has continued to rise, and is now just ahead or tied with the conservative CDU/CSU in recent polls. At the election, the CDU/CSU won 28.5% and the AfD 20.8%. There has been no recovery in the combined vote for the three main left-wing parties: the centre-left SPD, Greens and Left, with these parties polling 35-37% combined (36.8% combined at the election).

The next French presidential election will be held in April 2027 using a two-round system. Incumbent Emmanuel Macron cannot run owing to term limits. The far-right National Rally’s Marine le Pen was disqualified by a court decision, but substitute Jordan Bardella is in the mid-30s for the first round, far ahead of any other candidate. Bardella’s most likely runoff opponent is Édouard Philippe, Macron’s PM from 2017-20. Polls suggest a rough tie in this runoff scenario.

The next Italian election is due by December 2027, with 37% elected by FPTP and the rest by proportional representation. Polls have the right-wing alliance (PM Giorgia Meloni’s right-wing Brothers of Italy, the far-right League and the conservative Forza Italia) leading the left-wing alliance (the centre-left Democrats, left-wing Five Stars and the Greens) by high 40s to low 40s. The overall support for right and left parties hasn’t changed much since the 2022 election.

The next Spanish election is due by August 2027, using multi-member PR to elect the lower house. The centre-left Socialists have governed since 2018, but most polls have the conservative People’s and far-right Vox combined winning over 50%, and they will easily win a combined majority of lower house seats on these vote shares. There’s been a continued rise in Vox’s vote since the 2023 election.

Polls in countries with 2026 elections (Brazil, New Zealand and Israel)

Legislative and presidential elections will be held in Brazil in October, with the president elected using a two-round system. Centre-left incumbent Lula is far ahead in the first round, with Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former far-right president Jair Bolsonaro (now in jail), his most likely runoff opponent. Most polls have Lula beating Bolsonaro Jr in the runoff, with a closer hypothetical race against the conservative Tarcísio de Freitas.

The New Zealand election is due by next December, with parties either needing at least 5% of the party vote or a single-member electorate to be allocated a proportional share of seats. Polls have the three right-wing parties combined (National, ACT and NZ First) narrowly leading the three left-wing parties (Labour, the Greens and Maori). The gap between the blocs closed in early 2025, but has widened again recently.

The Israeli election is due by October using national PR with a 3.25% threshold. In most polls, PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition has about 50 of the 120 Knesset seats, well below the 61 needed for a majority. However, the opposition bloc also doesn’t have a majority, with unaligned parties (mainly Arab) having the remaining seats. The Netanyahu-aligned Filber and Direct Polls have a right-wing majority.

US Tennessee 7 federal special election live

Can Democrats gain a seat Trump won by 22 points in 2024? Also, the Canadian Liberals barely win a parliamentary budget vote.

Live Commentary

3:17pm I’ve done an article for The Conversation about Trump’s ratings and Australian polling.

2:16pm The near-final result is Rep by 53.9-45.1, an 8.8-point margin. That’s still a large swing to the Dems from Trump’s 22.3-point margin in this district in 2024.

1:47pm The Republican has been called the winner, taking Reps to a 220-213 House lead over Dems with two Dem vacancies.

1:37pm The last bit of Davidson reduces the Rep’s lead to 5.4 points with 93% in. The NYT projection is at Rep by 6.9 points.

1:24pm With 81% in, the Rep now leads by 8.0 points. The final NYT estimate is at Rep by 7.7. That’s still a 14.5-point swing to Dems from the 2024 pres results, but a clear Rep win.

12:55pm We now have two nearly complete counties: both rural. The Dems have a swing from the 2024 pres result of 9.3 points in one and 17 points in the other. With 58% in, the Rep has just retaken the lead by 0.3% and the NYT now has him winning by 5.6 points.

12:50pm As the election day vote comes in, counties appear to be becoming more Rep-leaning. The E-day vote has been better for Reps since Trump’s original election in 2016.

12:37pm The Dem takes a 7.2-point lead with results from Davidson. But the NYT still has the Rep winning by 2.9 points when everything counted.

12:24pm Still no results from three counties, including from Davidson which is expected to be heavily Dem. With 26% in, the Rep leads by 16, with the NYT estimate at Rep by 2.9.

12:15pm With 20% in, the Rep lead falls to 12.6 points and the New York Times estimate is for a final margin of 3.1 points to the Rep.

12:10pm Rural counties in TN 7 have reported so far, and the Rep leads by 71-26 with 3% in.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Polls close at 12 noon AEDT today for a federal special election in Tennessee’s Republican-held seventh district. The former member resigned in late July, so there’s a 4.5-month gap from vacancy to election. At the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump won this district by 22.3 points over Kamala Harris.

At 59 state and federal special elections held in 2025, Democrats have improved on the 2024 presidential margins by an average of 13.1 points. An Emerson poll of Tennessee 7 that was taken November 22-24 gave the Republican just a 49-47 lead over the Democrat with 4% for others.

Republicans hold the House of Representatives by 219-213 with two Democratic vacancies: the Texas 18th and New Jersey 11th. A “jungle primary” was held in Texas 18 on November 4, but nobody won over 50%, so a runoff between the two top candidates, both Democrats, will occur on January 31, nearly 11 months after the former member died. NJ 11 will hold a special election on April 16 after NJ governor-elect Mikie Sherrill resigned her House seat. Georgia Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene has announced she will resign on January 5.

Trump’s net approval in Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls has improved two points to -13.1 from a low of -15.0 on November 23. Currently 54.5% disapprove and 41.4% approve. In Fiftyplusone’s aggregate of the generic ballot, Democrats lead Republicans by 4.3 points, a slight improvement for Democrats compared to late October.

In gerrymandering news, the Texas gerrymander that created five additional Republican seats was struck down by a federal court. Republicans have appealed this decision to the Supreme Court, which has put the lower court’s decision on hold while it deliberates. Regardless of the outcome of Texas court cases, California’s Democratic gerrymander remains in place; this was approved at a referendum by 64.4-35.6 (28.8 points).

In final results from other November 4 elections, Democrats won the Virginia governorship by 15.4 points, the attorney-general by 6.6 and lieutenant-governor by 11.6. They won the lower house by 64-36. In NJ, Democrats won the governorship by 14.4 points and the lower house by 57-23. In 2024, Harris won NJ by 5.9 points, Virginia by 5.8 and California by 20.1.

Canadian Liberals barely win budget vote

The centre-left Canadian Liberals hold 170 of the 343 House of Commons seats (up one since the April election owing to a defection from the Conservatives), the Conservatives 143, the separatist Quebec Bloc 22, the left-wing NDP seven and the Greens one. The Liberals are just short of the 172 needed for a majority.

On November 17, the Liberals won a budget vote by 170 to 168 with only the sole Green supporting among non-Liberal parties. The budget was saved by the absence of two NDP and two Conservative MPs. The Liberal Speaker can only vote to break ties. Had the budget vote been lost, a new election would have been required.

Also in Canada, there was a provincial election in Newfoundland and Labrador on October 14. The Conservatives gained government with 21 of the 40 seats (up eight since the 2021 election). The Liberals won 15 seats (down seven) and the NDP two (steady). Vote shares were 44.4% Conservatives (up 5.6%), 43.4% Liberals (down 4.8%) and 8.3% NDP (up 0.3%). All Canadian elections use first past the post.

Right-winger likely to win Chile presidential election

Presidential and legislative elections occurred in Chile on November 16. Left-wing incumbent Gabriel Boric was unable to run owing to term limits. Communist Jeannette Jara, who served in Boric’s administration, won 26.9%, with right-winger José Antonio Kast following with 23.9%. Jara and Kast will proceed to a December 14 runoff. The other candidates were mostly right-wing and polls give Kast a large lead, so Kast should win.

All of the 155 lower house seats were elected by proportional representation in multi-member electorates. Right-wing parties won a combined 76 seats (up five since 2021), two short of a majority. Left-wing parties won 64 seats (down 15), with the populist Party of the People winning 14 seats (up eight). In the Senate, 23 of the 50 seats were up by multi-member PR. Left-wing parties won these seats by 12-11 for an overall 25-25 tie.

US state and local elections live

Live commentary on today’s US Virginia and New Jersey state elections, New York City mayoral election and a referendum in California to enable retaliatory gerrymandering.

Live Commentary

1:52pm Friday I’ve done an article for The Conversation about these elections, Trump’s sliding ratings and the US government shutdown.

9:20am Thursday In the NJ lower house, the NYT has 53 Dems and 19 Reps with eight uncalled. Dems are leading in four of the uncalled seats. If current leads hold up, they will win by 57-23, a five-seat gain.

5:28pm In the Texas 18th federal seat “jungle primary” (this is a special election), the two leading candidates, both Democrats, will advance to a yet to be scheduled runoff. A candidate needs over 50% to win a jungle primary outright, and the top candidate currently has 30.2%. The top Rep got 6.7%.

4:53pm End of day summary In Virginia, Dems won the governorship by 15.2 points, lieutenant governor by 11.4 and attorney general by 6.6 despite a scandal regarding the Dem A-G candidate. Dems won the lower house by 64-36, a 13-seat gain. Virginia voted for Harris in 2024 by 5.8 points.

In NJ, Dems won the governor by 13 points, far exceeding polls that gave them a low single-digit lead. NJ voted for Harris by 5.9 points in 2024. Dems have a 49-19 lead in called NJ lower house races, with 12 uncalled. Dems previously had a 52-28 majority in the NJ lower house.

With 91% in for NYC, Mamdani won the mayoralty by 50.4-41.6 over Cuomo with just 7.1% for Sliwa. In California, with 66% in, Yes to retaliatory gerrymandering leads by 29.4 points. We won’t have final results from NYC or California for some time as they take weeks to count all their votes.

3:23pm Now 50% in from California, and Yes leads by 66-34.

3:09pm Only 2% counted so far in California, but it’s already been called for Yes to retaliatory gerrymandering. Yes leads by 74-26 so far.

3:02pm VPAP now showing only one undecided seat in Virginia, with Dems winning by 64-35, a gain of 13 seats for the Dems. In the NJ lower house, the NYT has Dems winning by 44-14 with 22 still undecided. Dems have retained their hold on the trifecta in NJ and gained a trifecta in Virginia by gaining the governorship. The trifecta means control over both chambers of the legislature and the governor.

2:45pm Dems will win the other NYC races easily, beating the Reps with over 70%. In Pennsylvania, Dems have retained three judges on the state supreme court to keep their 5-2 majority. In Maine, a referendum to require photo ID for voting has been rejected by 23 points with 57% in.

2:37pm It’s now 59-26 in the Virginia lower house to the Dems with 15 undecided, a gain of ten seats for the Dems. Reps lead most of the undecided seats.

2:21pm In the VPAP count of the Virginia lower house, Dems lead Reps by 55-25 with 20 undecided, a gain of eight seats for Dems.

1:51pm According to the Virginia Public Access Project, Dems are winning the Virginia lower house by 40-17 with 43 uncalled. Dems have gained seven seats from the Reps so far.

1:40pm Mamdani CALLED winner of NYC mayor. With 75% in, he leads Cuomo by 50.4-41.3 with just 7.5% for Sliwa.

1:52pm The Dem has been called the winner in NJ governor, currently leading by 15 points with 63% in.

1:27pm With 52% in for NYC, Mamdani’s lead over Cuomo has narrowed to 49.6-41.5. But hardly any further narrowing with 60% in now.

1:15pm The Dem’s lead has narrowed to 15 points in NJ with 52% in, with the NYT expecting her to get a final 56% of the vote.

1:12pm With 38% in for NYC, Mamdani leads Cuomo by 51.2-40.0 with just 8.0% for Sliwa. These would be early votes, so election day votes may favour Cuomo.

12:36pm With 62% counted in Virginia, the Dems lead for governor by 11 points, lieutenant governor by 7 and attorney general by 2. So the scandal about Jones’ texts had an impact, but not enough for him to lose the att-gen race.

12:31pm With 27% in for NJ, the Dem leads by 23 points. If that holds up, the polls in NJ will have badly understated the Dem. But perhaps early votes are mostly counted, and election day votes will help the Rep.

12:29pm With 52% in for the Texas federal special election, the three leading candidates are all Dems, but the leader has 32%, well under the 50% needed to avoid a runoff.

12:15pm With 17% in for NJ, the Dem is up by more than 26 points. The NYT says the remaining vote is “fairly evenly split”, implying an easy Dem win.

12:10pm With 14% in for New Jersey, the Dem leads the governor’s race by 17 points. No NYT estimate of the final result yet.

12:01pm The Dem has been called the winner in Virginia governor.

11:55am With 29% in for Virginia, NYT gives Dem gov candidate 57% when counting complete. Dems still likely to win all three statewide offices.

11:37am With 17% now counted in Virginia governor, the NYT model thinks the Dem will win with 56% of the final vote. The other statewide races are closer, but Dems should win all three.

11:28am For the governor’s race, the Dem is winning all types of votes counted so far, early votes by 21 points, election day votes by 5.5 points and mail votes by 49 points.

11:21am With 2% reporting in Virginia, the Dems lead the governor race by 13 points. They are also 14 points up in the Attorney-General race and 10 points up for lieutenant-governor.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

US state elections occur today in Virginia and New Jersey, with the governor and lower house of the legislature up. New York City (NYC) will hold a mayoral election. California holds a referendum on enabling Democratic retaliatory gerrymandering. And there’s a federal special election in a safe Democratic Texas seat. Polls close at 11am AEDT in Virginia, 12 noon in NJ and Texas, 1pm in NYC and 3pm in California.

Late polls in NJ have the Democrat leading by low single-digit margins. Democrats have held the NJ governorship since 2017. In Virginia, where Republicans won the governorship in 2021, the Democrat leads by high single to low double-digit margins. At the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris won NJ by 5.9 points and Virginia by 5.8 points, while Donald Trump won the overall popular vote by 1.5 points.

Virginia also holds statewide contests for lieutenant-governor and attorney-general. A scandal about the Democratic AG candidate’s texts could cost him. Democrats currently hold a 52-28 majority over Republicans in the NJ lower house and a 51-49 majority in the Virginia lower house. Democrats hold a 25-15 upper house majority in NJ and a 21-19 majority in Virginia, which are not up for election.

In NYC, a late AtlasIntel poll gave Democratic nominee and socialist Zohran Mamdani a 44-39 lead over independent Andrew Cuomo with 15% for Republican Curtis Silwa. Cuomo led Mamdani by 50-44 head to head. Other than in the two final AtlasIntel polls, Mamdani has led Cuomo by double digit margins and also led him head to head. In California, “yes” to retaliatory gerrymandering is over 20 points ahead.

The special election in Texas’ 18th is being held eight months after the former Democratic member died, but it’s unlikely to be decided today. It’s a “jungle primary”, where all Democratic and Republican candidates compete and the top two go to a runoff. Unless one candidate gets over 50%, a runoff will need to be scheduled to decide this seat.

Republicans hold the House of Representatives by 219-213 with three vacancies. A Democrat who won a special in Arizona in September has not yet been seated. A special will occur on December 2 in a safe Republican seat in Tennessee.

With the ongoing US government shutdown set to beat the record for the longest shutdown, Donald Trump’s net approval in Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls has slid 5.3 points since October 19 to -12.8. In Fiftyplusone’s generic ballot average, Democrats’ lead over Republicans has changed little, and is now 44.9-41.8.

Netherlands, Bolivia and Chile past and upcoming elections

The 150 Dutch MPs are elected by national proportional representation without a threshold. At the October 29 election, the socially liberal and progressive D66 won 26 seats (up 17 since the 2023 election), the far-right PVV 26 (down 11), the conservative VVD 22 (down two), the Green Left 20 (down five), the conservative CDA 18 (up 13), the far-right JA21 nine (up eight) and the far-right FvD seven (up four).

To reach a majority, 76 seats are needed. It usually takes months after an election to form a government. Other parties have vowed not to work with the PVV, which caused the fall of the last government and this election to be held over two years early. But conservative to far-right parties won a combined 82 seats, so the next government is likely to be a conservative one.

The Bolivian presidential runoff election occurred on October 19. The Movement for Socialism (MAS) had dominated Bolivia since 2005, but at this election they won just 3.2% of the August first round vote, with the runoff contested by two conservative to right-wing candidates, with the more centrist candidate winning by 55.0-45.0. Seats in both houses of the legislature were allocated by PR using the presidential vote. The MAS won just two of 130 seats in the lower house and zero of 36 in the Senate.

Chile presidential and legislative elections will occur on November 16, with a presidential runoff on December 14. Incumbent left-winger Gabriel Boric cannot run owing to term limits. Jeannette Jara is Boric’s candidate and leads right-winger José Kast in first round polls, but other candidates are mostly right-wing, so Kast may win the runoff.

UK, Irish and Argentine electoral events live

This post will cover the UK Labour deputy leadership results announcement tonight, the Irish presidential election results tomorrow and the Argentine midterm elections on Monday.

Live Commentary

1:53pm Liberty Advances was defending 35 of the 127 Chamber seats up and have won 64, a gain of 29. They will now have a total of 111 of the 257 Chamber seats, to 96 for Homeland Force and 20 for United Provinces. In the Senate, LA were defending two seats and gained 11, while HF were defending 15 and lost eight, with UP not defending any of their seven senators. So the Senate is now 26-26 out of 72 between LA and HF with 13 for UP and the remaining seven seats for local provincial parties.

12:08pm Official results are here. With 95% counted, LA defeats HF by 40.8-31.6 and takes 64 of the 127 seats up at this election to 44 for HF. In the Senate, LA has 13 of the 24 senators up at this election, to seven for HF and four for locals. This is a big midterm victory for Javier Milei and his right-wing agenda in Argentina.

11:45am Liberty Advances has won over 40% of the national vote. I can’t find official results.

10:55am Monday We’re still waiting for official results from Argentina, but The Buenos Aires Times says “first murmurings” from Liberty Advances are that it’s “even” between LA and Homeland Force.

7:02am Sunday With results from all 43 electorates in, Connolly wins with 63.4% of the primary vote, with Humphreys on 29.5% and Gavin 7.2%. Turnout was 45.8%, slightly higher than in 2018 (43.9%). But a very high 12.9% of all votes were spoilt (informal). As Connolly received a primary vote majority, there is no need to distribute Gavin’s preferences. Connolly was the left-wing candidate for this largely symbolic office. The current Irish government is a conservative coalition of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil.

8:22pm Based on scrutineers’ reports, Catherine Connolly will win the Irish presidential election.

8:11pm Lucy Powell has been elected Labour’s deputy leader, winning by 54.3-45.7. But only 16.6% of Labour’s members voted.

7:47pm Live election updates in Ireland look very positive for Connolly. These are unofficial figures being reported by scrutineers and journalists.

7:37pm Labour’s new deputy leader will be announced at 8pm AEDT. Counting began in Ireland at 7pm, but we won’t have any official counts until at least one of the 43 electorates used for Irish parliamentary elections is declared, probably after midnight AEDT.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

From October 8-23, UK Labour members chose between two candidates for deputy leader: education minister Bridget Phillipson and former leader of the House of Commons Lucy Powell. Phillipson is regarded as PM Keir Starmer’s choice. Results will be announced tonight AEDT. The final Survation poll for LabourList gave Powell a 57-40 lead (57-26 in September).

National voting intentions in the Election Maps UK aggregate are 30.3% for the far-right Reform, 20.1% Labour, 17.8% Conservatives, 13.6% Liberal Democrats and 11.6% Greens. In the last month, there has been movement to the Greens. Reform is still winning a majority of Commons seats in the Nowcast.

The Irish presidential election was held Friday using preferential voting, with vote counting starting tonight AEDT. Final primary votes should be known on Sunday morning. The candidates are independent Catherine Connolly, who is supported by left-wing parties, the conservative Fine Gael’s Heather Humphreys and the conservative Fianna Fáil’s Jim Gavin. Gavin has withdrawn but will still be on the ballot paper. The president is largely ceremonial with a seven-year term. Polls give Connolly a majority excluding undecided and won’t vote.

Polls for midterm elections in Argentina close at 8am AEDT Monday, with first official results likely by 11am. These are the first national elections since the far-right Javier Milei won the presidency in 2023. Of the 257 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, 127 are up for election using proportional representation based on the 24 provinces with a 3% threshold. Eight provinces also hold Senate elections, with three senators up per province. The winning party receives two senators and the runner-up one.

Chamber seats up last faced election in 2021, while Senate seats were last up in 2019. The left-wing Homeland Force (HF) won the presidency in 2019 but performed badly in 2021. They will be defending 46 of the 127 Chamber seats and 15 of the 24 senators up for election.

Mliei’s Liberty Advances (LA) has become the dominant right-wing party, replacing PRO, which has merged with LA. Current Chamber standings are 98 of 257 for HF, 82 for LA and 31 for United Provinces, with the remaining seats for various other parties. In the Senate, HF has 34 of the 72 seats, with 18 for UP and 13 for LA, who are defending only two Senate seats. I believe UP is a right-wing split from HF.

Annual inflation in Argentina fell from a peak of 292% in April 2024 to 32% in September. However, monthly inflation increased from 1.5% in May to 2.1% in September. Perhaps owing to this, HF has gained in national polls in the last few months. Two October polls had a narrow lead for LA, but the other had a seven-point lead for HF.

Other upcoming elections: Netherlands and US states

The Dutch election will occur this Wednesday, using PR to elect the 150 MPs without a threshold. This election is over two years early owing to a collapse in the previous right-wing government after the far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) withdrew. The conservative Christian Democrats (CDA) have surged, with polls suggesting the combined vote for three right-wing parties (PVV, CDA and VVD) will be close to the 76 seats needed for a majority. This election is likely to be another dismal European election for the left.

In September I covered US state gubernatorial elections on November 4 in New Jersey and Virginia, a mayoral election in New York City (NYC), a referendum in California for Democrats to attempt to retaliate to Republican gerrymandering in Texas and a federal special election in a safe Democratic Texas seat.

Non-partisan polls continue to give the Democrats high single-digit leads in NJ and low double-digit leads in Virginia. Polls in California have “yes” to retaliatory gerrymandering 20 points ahead. In NYC, current mayor Eric Adams has withdrawn, but polls have Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani leading Andrew Cuomo by a double-digit margin, though this could narrow if Republican Curtis Silwa also withdrew.

I covered the ongoing US government shutdown for The Conversation on October 9. It’s now the second longest shutdown. Neither Donald Trump’s net approval (-9.2 in Nate Silver’s aggregate) nor the generic congressional ballot (Democrats by 3.1 in G. Elliott Morris’ tracker) have changed much.

Welsh Caerphilly parliamentary by-election live

Polls suggest Labour’s vote is set to collapse in a Welsh parliamentary by-election.

12:29pm Plaid Cymru GAINS Caerphilly from Labour, defeating Reform by 11.4 points, with Labour a dismal third and the Tories getting only 2%.

11:18am Friday The BBC is reporting that it’ll be close between Reform and Plaid. Turnout was 50.4% at this by-election. There’s never been a Welsh parliamentary election with a turnout over 50%. A result is “possible” around 12pm AEDT.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Polls close at 8am AEDT Friday for a Welsh parliamentary by-election in Caerphilly. Wales and Scotland use proportional representation methods but with single-member electorates. When an MP for a single-member electorate resigns or dies, a by-election occurs.

At the 2021 Welsh election, Labour won Caerphilly with 46.0%, followed by the centre-left Welsh nationalist Plaid Cymru with 28.4% and the Conservatives with 17.3%. The far-right Reform came sixth with just 1.7%. The 2021 Welsh and Scottish elections were held concurrently with English local elections in which the Conservatives under Boris Johnson easily defeated Labour.

The only poll for this by-election is a Survation poll that has Reform leading Plaid by 42-38 with just 12% for Labour and 4% for the Conservatives. If the result replicates that poll, Labour would finish a distant third in a seat they won by almost 18 points in a poor election for them, while Reform’s vote would be up 40 points.

Labour has been the dominant party at Welsh elections since the first devolved election in 1999, winning half or just under half the seats. The next election is in May 2026 using 96 members elected in 16 six-member electorates. This reform will scrap the single-member electorates, so there won’t be by-elections.

In the Election Maps UK Welsh poll aggregate, Reform leads with 29.3%, followed by Plaid at 26.5%, Labour at 18.5% and the Conservatives at 11.0%. It’s a contest between Reform and Plaid for the most seats, with the once dominant Labour in third. Scottish parliamentary elections will also occur in May 2026. The Scottish National Party (SNP) has dominated since 2011. Polls suggest they will again be the largest party, but fall well short of a majority, with Reform possibly the largest non-SNP party.

On Saturday I will write about the UK deputy Labour leadership election, the Irish presidential election and the Argentine midterm elections. UK and Irish results should start reporting on Saturday night AEDT, with Argentina on Monday morning. The Argentine midterms will be the first national elections since Javier Milei won the presidency in 2023.

Past electoral events: Moldova, Czech Republic and Japan

Moldova uses national PR to elect its 101 MPs with a 5% threshold. At the September 28 election, the governing pro-European PAS won 55 seats (down eight since 2021 but above the 51 needed for a majority), the pro-Russian BEP 26 (down six), the centre-left pro-European Alternative eight (new), the left-wing populist RN six (new) and the right-wing PPDA six (new).

The 200 Czech MPs are elected by regional PR with a 5% national threshold. At the October 3-4 election, the right-wing populist ANO won 80 seats (up eight since 2021), the conservative SPOLU 52 (down 19), the liberal STAN 22 (down 11), the left-wing Pirates 18 (up 14), the far-right SPD 15 (down five) and the right-wing Motorists 13 (new). ANO will be able to form a government with both SPD and Motorists. The previous government was a coalition of SPOLU, STAN and Pirates.

Japan’s conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has held government almost continuously since 1955. On October 4, Margaret Thatcher admirer Sanae Takaichi was elected LDP leader, replacing Shigeru Ishiba, who resigned after the LDP and their Komeito allies combined lost their majorities in both lower and upper house elections in the last year.

After Takaichi’s election as LDP leader, Komeito ditched its coalition with the LDP. However, the LDP formed a coalition with the right-wing Japan Innovation Party. On Tuesday, Takaichi defeated the centre-left Constitutional Democratic Party’s leader by 237 votes to 149 in the lower house to become Japan’s first female PM.

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