International Politics – The Poll Bludger

NZ election live and US late counting

The centrist Opportunity will probably win the balance of power at today’s New Zealand election. This post will also follow late counting in the US mid-term elections.

Live Commentary

12:36pm Tuesday For the US mid-terms, with 76% counted in Alaska, Dem Peltola’s lead over Rep Sullivan increases to 48.6-47.5. It was 48.2-47.9 with 74% in.

11:45am Monday The aggregate sum of votes in the electorates gave National a 41.3-33.8 lead over Labour (7.5 points). This explains why National was ahle to win so many electorate seats. TPM’s electorate vote was 3.4%, compared with its party list vote of 0.6%. ACT and NZ First’s electorate vote was far less than their party votes and so, to a lesser extent, was the Greens. There are about 400,000 special votes remaining to be counted (14% of all votes).

2:06pm My article for The Conversation on the NZ results has been published. If neither National or TPM had any overhangs, the right would still have won a majority on the preliminary results, as the right’s lead over the left of 6.7 percentage points exceeded Opportunity’s 6.0%.

11:07am In Israel, Herzog has selected Eisenkot to attempt to form a government.

6:33am Sunday (Two paragraph entry) Final preliminary results give Labour a 0.15% party vote lead over National, but National is winning the 71 electorates by 42-21 over Labour, with five for TPM, two Greens and one ACT. Total seats are 42 National, 36 Labour, 16 Greens, 13 ACT, 12 NZ First, seven Opportunity and five TPM. On this count, parliament will have an 11-seat overhang, being expanded to 131 MPs. Right-wing parties will have 67 of these 131 MPs, one more than the 66 needed for a majority.

There are two electorates, Hamilton East and Wairarapa, where National leads Labour by less than 500 votes. With the expected shift to the left on the final results, National could lose both after final results, which won’t be released until November 27.

11:09pm It’s taking NZ too long to count those final 1% of booths. I’ll report the final election night results tomorrow morning.

11pm On the current count, Nat’s seat entitlement should be 35 seats, so they’re getting a seven-seat overhang. TPM’s seat entitlement should be one. By winning five electorates, they’re getting a four-seat overhang.

10:55pm With 98.8% counted, Lab leads Nat by 0.04% on party votes, but Nat is still winning 42 electorate seats and the right has 67 of 131 seats, one above the 66 needed for a majority.

10:27pm With 97.6% counted, Labour is just 0.02% behind National on party votes, but Nat are winning the electorates by 42-21 over Lab, with five TPM, two Greens and one ACT. The right overall has 67 of 130 seats.

9:43pm With 94% of booths in, there hasn’t been much change since the last update, with Nat leading Lab in electorates by 42-20 and the right overall winning 66 of 129 seats. These results won’t be the final count. We won’t know that result until Nov 27.

9:01pm 88% of booths have been counted. The last 12% are probably bigger booths, so they could have a larger impact on the result than you would think. The right has 66 of 129 seats currently. Opportunity is at 5.9%, and will clear the 5% threshold.

8:48pm Lab is starting to climb again, up to 29.06% after falling to 28.95%. Nat has lost leads in two electorates, and now lead electorates by 41-22 over Lab with five TPM. The right overall has 66 of 129 seats, one above the 65 required for a majority with 83% overall counted.

8:36pm Nat now winning electorates by 43-20 over Labour with five TPM, two Greens and one ACT. With 79% overall counted, the right has 68 of 131 seats, two above the 66 needed for a majority.

8:16pm Nat loses the lead in an electorate seat, now winning electorates by 41-21 over Lab. With 70% overall counted, the right has 66 out of 129 total seats.

8:08pm With 66% overall counted, Lab’s drop continues as they now trail Nat by 0.36%. The right is winning 67 of 130 seats.

7:54pm Lab continues to drop as the election day vote comes in, now trailing Nat by 0.1%, with Opportunity at 5.7%. With 56.6% counted overall, Nat leads the 71 electorates by 42-20 over Lab, with five for TPM, three Greens and one ACT. Right-wing parties have an overall 67 out of 131 seats on current counting, a majority.

7:44pm As the election day vote has started to come in, Lab and Nat are back to a virtual tie (Lab by 0.03) with 51% overall counted. On the advance votes, Lab led by 0.7%. Right-wing parties are just above a majority with 67 of the 131 total seats.

7:23pm There are now about 75,000 election day votes counted out of nearly 1.6 million total. So far Lab is doing a little worse and Nat a little better on these votes, which are probably unrepresentative. With 40% overall counted, the overhang is up to 11 seats, with Nat winning the electorates over Lab by 42-20 despite losing the party vote by 0.34%. The right has 66 of these 131 current seats.

7:10pm Greens are helping Nat win some seats under FPTP. Eg in Nelson, Nat lead Lab by 406 with the Greens on over 2,200 votes, though ACT has 978.

6:57pm With 31.9% counted, Lab leads Nat by 0.44% on party votes, but Nat is leading on electorates by 41-21, with TPM still winning five electorates. This is producing a 10-seat overhang, with the right having 65 of 130 seats, one short of a majority. There are not many election day votes counted yet.

6:35pm Despite trailing Lab by 0.5% on party votes, Nat leads Lab by 42-20 in the electorates. That’s currently giving the right 66 of 130 seats.

6:24pm Nat’s seat lead over Lab is down to 40-22 with 26% in, with the right no longer having an overall majority, currently they’re at 64 of 128 seats.

6:18pm Labour overtakes Nat on party votes by 0.1% with 24.9% counted, but they’re still losing the electorate count by 41-21.

6:12pm With 23.5% counted overall, Nat is just 0.1% ahead of Labour on party votes, and the overall right is down to a bare majority 65 seats out of 129. Opportunity is at 5.4%, above the 5% threshold. Nat leads Lab on electorate seats by 41-21.

5:48pm With 17.5% overall counted, National has lost a lead in an electorate, so they’re down to 42 electorate seats out of 71. The right-wing parties have 67 of 129 seats. The gap between National and Labour’s party vote has been narrowing.

5:42pm In the Maori electorate of Waiariki, TPM is so far getting nearly 5,000 electorate votes but just 735 party votes. This explains why TPM is only getting 0.4% of the national party vote while winning five electorates.

5:30pm With 9.7% in, there’s a nine-seat overhang (129 seats). Nat, ACT and NZF have a combined 68 seats on current counting, enough for a right majority without needing Opportunity.

5:22pm With 5.4% of booths in, National is winning 41 electorate seats, three higher than its entitlement, and TPM is winning five electorates, five higher than entitled given its party vote of just 0.3%. If this holds, parliament will have 128 seats, an eight-seat overhang.

5:11pm There’s already some results from Advance voting. With 1.2% counted, National 31.0%, Labour 29.8%, Greens 12.2%, ACT 11.0%, NZ First 9.4%, Opportunity 5.7% and TPM 0.3%.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Polls close at 5pm AEDT today for the New Zealand election. Advance (pre-poll) votes will be counted quickly after polls close, with election day votes taking longer. NZ media don’t use booth-matched swings. The final election night count is still preliminary, with no further updates until final results are reported on November 27. In past elections, left-wing parties have gained one or two seats from the preliminary results to the final results.

NZ uses the Mixed Member Proportional system with a nominal 120 seats in parliament. To qualify, parties must either win at least 5% of the party list vote or at least one of the 71 single-member electorates. However, if a party wins more electorates than their entitlement from the party vote, they keep their extra seats and parliament is expanded (an “overhang”).

I wrote about the final three pre-election polls for The Conversation on Friday. If the polls are accurate, right-wing governing parties (National, ACT and NZ First) will have a 2—5 point lead over left-wing parties (Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori (TPM)). But the centrist Opportunity has between 5.1% and 6.2%. If they clear the 5% threshold, they are likely to gain the balance of power between the left and right.

There are seven electorates reserved for those on the Māori roll. In Monday’s Conversation article, I said if TPM wins at least three of these electorates, they would get an overhang, as they’re at 2% or less in national polls. Other possibilities of overhangs involve one of Labour or National overperforming in electorates (as both traditional major parties’ votes are low).

US mid-term election updates

Democrats are increasingly likely to win the Senate by 56—44 over Republicans, a nine-seat gain for Democrats. In the Mississippi Senate contest, Democrat Scott Colom has kept extending his lead since election night over Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith. Colon now leads by 0.27 points or nearly 2,600 votes. I previously wrote that late counting in Alaska will strongly favour Democrat Mary Peltola.

In the House, Democrats lead Republicans by 254—162 in called races with 19 still uncalled. Most uncalled seats have Republican leads, including two Louisiana seats that had “jungle primaries” on Tuesday and will go to runoffs on December 12. If uncalled seats are assigned to current leaders, Democrats are leading by 259—176. Republican Lauren Boebert is currently losing her Colorado fourth seat by 0.83 points.

The Cook Political Report now has a popular vote tracker, with Democrats leading by 55.7—42.9, a 12.8-point margin. This lead will expand further as Democratic strongholds like California are slow to count their votes. The swing to the Democrats from a 2.6-point Republican margin in 2024 has enabled them to overcome Republican gerrymanders in some states to make gains, with only Louisiana’s gerrymander likely to be successful (pending the runoffs).

I mentioned before that Democrats had taken full control in Pennsylvania and Michigan (governor and both chambers of the state legislature). Democrats also took full control in Arizona for the first time in 60 years, and in Wisconsin for the first time since 2010.

Israeli and Spanish election updates

At the October 27 Israeli election, Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing governing coalition won 53 of the 120 seats, Jewish opposition parties 48 and Arab parties 19. On Thursday, Gadi Eisenkot, the leader of the largest opposition party, secured endorsements from 67 MPs (the opposition bloc plus the Arab parties), while Netanyahu only had endorsements from 46, with the ultra-Orthodox UTJ, which is part of Netanyahu’s bloc, abstaining. President Isaac Herzog will announce his decision Sunday on who gets the first opportunity to form a government. That candidate will have six weeks to form a government.

I previously wrote on October 20 about the snap November 29 Spanish election. Polls still mostly have the conservative People’s Party (PP) ahead of the governing Socialists, with 19—20% for the populist right Vox, indicating a combined majority of seats for PP and Vox. However, the most recent poll has the Socialists leading the PP, although the combined vote for national right-wing parties is still ahead of the combined left vote.

US mid-term elections live

In Nate Silver’s forecast model, Democrats are strong favourites to gain control of the Senate and overwhelming favourites in the House.

Live Commentary

7:08am Friday In Mississippi Senate, the Dem’s lead has expanded to 1,724 votes or 0.18%. In the House nationally, Dems now lead in called races by 251-155 with 29 remaining uncalled.

5:43pm Dems have also won a trifecta in Michigan for the second time in the last 40 years. They also won the trifecta in 2022.

5:32pm Democrats have gained control of the Pennsylvania state Senate for the first time since 1978, winning by 26 seats to 24. That gives Dems the trifecta in Pennsylvania (governor and both chambers of the legislature). Dems also gained four Penn federal House seats.

4:37pn In the LA mayoral election, centre-left incumbent Karen Bass is trailing left-wing challenger Nithya Raman by 51.7-48.3 with 72% in. Later votes in California skew left, so I expect Raman to win. No to the wealth tax’s lead has been reduced to 55.3-44.7 with 61% in statewide, but it’s very unlikely to pass. Dems gained control of the Texas state House and North Carolina state House, but didn’t win either state’s state Senate.

12:25pm I’ve done an article for The Conversation on these results. It’s the first time Dems have won Kansas Senate since 1932 and the first time they’ve won Texas Senate since 1992. While polls had the winner right in all states called so far except South Carolina, they understated Dem margins.

12:14pm In Mississippi Senate, the Dem has increased his lead to 0.12 points or 1,138 votes. That’s looking more like another Dem gain.

9:35am Thursday Peltola is back in the lead in Alaska Senate, leading by 48.2-47.9 with 77% in. She will expand that lead and probably win a majority before preferences on late counting. In Mississippi Senate, the Dem has a 65-vote lead (0.01%). In the House, Dems have a 237-147 lead in called seats with 51 still uncalled. Dems have won the Senate by 54-44 with Alaska and Mississippi uncalled. Last night, Michigan was called as a Dem hold.

8:10pm In Alaska Senate, the Rep has taken a 48.6-47.6 lead over the Dem (Peltola) with 74% in, but late counting strongly favours Dems in Alaska, so Peltola should gain the lead back. Alaska uses preferential voting, but Peltola may be over 50% when all votes are counted.

8:06pm Dems have gained the governorships of Ohio, Georgia, Texas and Iowa, and are likely to also win the final three undecided contests in Alaska, Nevada and Kansas.

5:19pm Maine Senate has been CALLED for the Dem, another gain for them.

5:01pm In Mississippi Senate, the Dem has just taken the lead by 0.01 points with over 95% in!

4:45pm With 22% counted in Alaska, the Dem leads by 54-43, but we don’t yet know where those votes are from.

4:15pm The NYT has the Rep barely hanging on in Mississippi Senate by just 0.9 points with 94% in. The Senate would have been worse for Reps if not for wins by 3 points or less in Florida, Miss and Louisiana. Dems are likely to win all their Senate seats by at least four points.

4:05pm In Minnesota, with 77% in, the Dem has taken a 54-43 lead. That will be called soon.

4:02pm In California, with 44% in, the wealth tax for billionaires referendum is losing by 57-43. This was opposed by many Dems.

3:54pm Even though the Rep currently has a 51-46 lead in Minnesota Senate with 49% in, there’s lots more votes remaining in the cities, so the NYT is projecting a final Dem margin of 9.1 points.

3:44pm Iowa also now CALLED for the Dem. That gives Dems 51 Senate seats, a majority. The NYT expects them to win Maine, Minnesota and Michigan with Alaska’s first polls closing at 4pm.

3:28pm Ohio and Kansas Senate contests have been CALLED for the Dems, giving them five Senate gains so far.

3:25pm The Texas governor has also been called a Dem gain, with Dems gaining four governorships so far, in Ohio, Georgia, Iowa and Texas.

3:06pm Texas Senate CALLED for Dem Talarico. He currently leads by 59-39 with 69% in. That’s the third Dem Senate gain today.

2:30pm Although the Dem’s lead in Ohio Senate has narrowed to just 1.2 points with 78% in, the NYT Needle says it’s Very Likely Dem.

2:22pm The NYT Needle now has Mississippi as toss-up with 65% in and Louisiana as Lean Rep with 58% in. Reps were rated higher nearer the beginning of counting in both states.

2:15pm The South Carolina Senate contest has been CALLED for the Dem, who currently leads by 51-47 with 89% in. Polls had the Rep leading by about one point.

2:10pm In the NC state Senate, Dems lead Reps by 18-3 and in the state House by 44-17. They’re still short of a majority in called seats in both chambers. Results like this will allow Dems to scrap Rep gerrymanders and implement their own gerrymanders.

1:42pm The NYT has 54 Senate seats at at least lean Dem, 44 at least lean Rep seats and two toss-ups (Nebraska and Alaska). Alaska polls don’t close until 4pm. Dems are up to an 8.1-point expected final margin in Texas and 5.5 points in Ohio.

1:28pm The NYT Needle now says Texas Senate is likely Dem. On current counting, it looks good for the Dem governor candidate to defeat the Rep incumbent in Texas.

1:09pm SC up to a 94% chance of a Dem win, and Dems are now likely to win the Senate by 53-44 with three toss-ups. In the House, Dems are winning by 230-187 with 18 toss-ups.

12:49pm New Hampshire and North Carolina have both been called for the Dems, with NC the first Dem gain. Florida is a Rep hold, winning by 51-48. That three-point margin is better for Dems than polls expected (a six-point Rep margin in polls). The Reps have also retained Florida governor by 1.2 points.

12:43pm South Carolina up to a 93% chance of a Dem win on the NYT needle with 52% in, projecting as Dem by 4.2 points.

12:19pm The NYT finally has its Needle working. It’s giving Dems a 51-44 Senate lead with five toss-ups. South Carolina is currently a 72% chance of a Dem win.

12:13pm Wichita county, Kansas, has reported 52% of its vote, favouring the Dem Senate candidate by 57-41. Trump won this county by 14 points in 2024.

12pm In Florida Senate, the Rep has just taken a 0.5-point lead with 85% in.

11:59am In Ohio Senate, with 24% in, the Dem is leading by 63-34. But this is all early votes. In South Carolina, with 14% in, the Dem is leading by 52-46. Georgia has just been called for the Dems.

11:53am The Dem’s lead in Indiana 5 has dropped to 57-43 with 60% in. The Rep is barely ahead in Indiana 3 with 49% in.

11:36am With 66% in for Florida Senate, the Dem only leads by 50-49. I expect the Rep to win as the election day votes are counted, plus the conservative Panhandle doesn’t close until noon AEDT.

11:30am With 40% in for Indiana’s 3rd House, the Dem leads by 55-45. It voted for Trump by 31 points in 2024.

11:28am With 50% reporting in Indiana’s 5th House seat, the Dem leads by 60-40. This district voted for Trump by 17 points in 2024.

11:14am The Dem Senate candidate leads in Florida by 52-47 with 49% in. But election day votes were better for the Reps than early votes.

11:11am In my Conversation article I said Florida counts fast. With 36% in, Dem Jolly has a 52-47 lead.

11:10am The Dem governor candidate leads by 55-44 in Florida with 4% in. There are still no results for the Senate.

11:04am With 9% reporting in Kentucky, the Dem Senate candidate has taken a 52-47 lead over the Rep. The Rep will probably win when all votes are in.

10:24am Dems are also leading by 58-42 with 31% in in the Rep-held Indiana 3rd House seat.

10:18am In Indiana’s 5th House district, a Dem is leading a Rep incumbent by 64-36 with 31% in. It’s likely that’s early vote and the Rep will do better with the election day vote.

9:20am Turnout reports haven’t been showing a massive Republican edge, suggesting that the polls are probably about right.

The first polls for today’s US midterm elections close at 10am AEDT in the eastern time zones of Indiana and Kentucky. The real action will start at 11am when polls close in Senate contests in South Carolina and Florida. A guide to poll closing times is in Tuesday’s article for The Conversation.

In Nate Silver’s final forecast, Democrats have an 82% chance to gain control of the Senate and a 96% chance to gain control of the House of Representatives. They lead on the generic ballot by 9.3 points. However, Donald Trump’s net approval has rebounded to -20.4 from a low below -24.

In Senate contests in five states Trump won by double-digit margins in 2024, Democrats lead by 3.3 points in Texas, 2.4 points in Alaska, 1.1 points in Iowa, 4.0 points in Kansas and 3.0 points in Ohio. Republicans lead by just 1.1 points in South Carolina and 1.2 points in Nebraska against an independent.

There are two other Senate contests where Democrats had been struggling given Kamala Harris won Maine by 6.9 points in 2024 and Trump only won Michigan by 1.4 points. The Democratic candidates lead by 3.9 points in Republican-held Maine and by 4.9 points in Democratic-held Michigan.

Israeli election: what happens next

At the October 27 Israeli election, Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing governing coalition won 53 of the 120 seats, Jewish opposition parties 48 and Arab parties 19. All blocs are well short of the 61 needed for a majority. After these results are officially declared today, President Isaac Herzog has until November 11 to nominate someone who can form government: this will be either Netanyahu or Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the biggest opposition party (Yashar with 21 seats).

The candidate nominated by Herzog has six weeks to form a government, including a two-week extension. If the first candidate fails, a second attempt can be made with a different candidate. If no government is formed by either candidate in the next three months, there will need to be new elections. Netanyahu remains caretaker PM until a new government is formed.

NZ and Bulgarian elections and Canadian by-elections

The New Zealand election is on Saturday, with polls closing at 5pm AEDT. I wrote for the NZ edition of The Conversation on Monday that a Verian poll last week gave right-wing parties a large enough lead over left-wing parties that they would get a majority of seats without needing Opportunity. However, a Reid Research poll still had left-wing parties ahead, with Opportunity gaining the balance of power. The final Verian poll has the right short of a majority, with Opportunity having the balance of power.

At Sunday’s Bulgarian presidential runoff election, socialist incumbent Iliana Iotova defeated centrist former PM Andrey Gyurov by 57.6—39.5 with 3.0% for none of the above. The Bulgarian presidency is mostly a symbolic office. Turnout was just 28.6%.

Six federal Canadian by-elections have been called for December 7. The centre-left governing Liberals will be defending two seats, the Conservatives two, the left-wing NDP one and the separatist Quebec Bloc one.

US mid-terms minus one week

Your fair-and-balanced guide to next week’s mid-term elections, in which the Democrats are strongly favoured in the House and a fair shot in the Senate as well.

I don’t particularly claim to be an authority on US politics, so what follows is anything but a definitive guide. If nothing else though, writing it has been a useful way to get my own thoughts in order concerning next Tuesday’s mid-term elections, for which we should start to see results around noon on Wednesday, Sydney and Melbourne time.

In the House of Representatives, Nate Silver’s poll tracker has the Democrats leading on the “generic ballot” measure by 51.0% to 42.2%, while Patrick Ruffini’s model projects to a Democratic majority of 233 to 202. This is reflected in prediction markets, with Polymarket putting the probability of a Democratic majority at 91%.

Ruffini’s model is packaged for subscribers into a nifty “Swingometer” feature that the user can adjust in various ways. Much like the Mackerras pendulums familiar to election watchers in Australia, Ruffini’s model lists seats from bluest to reddest, taking into account the changes in nine states whose maps have been redrawn. This is based on vote share in the presidential rather than House election, producing base party vote shares on an apples-to-apples basis.

In all of the analysis that follows, I am citing Ruffini’s party vote estimates off the 2024 baseline, in which the Republicans had an overall advantage of 1.5% (reflecting Donald Trump’s 49.8% to 48.3% win over Kamala Harris on the popular vote), with all the incumbency and other adjustments Swingometer allows for set at zero. On this scenario, the Republicans win 234-201 — a gain of 14 seats on their actual result in 2024. Ten of the 14 can be put down to redistricting, but four represent the net effect of turning off incumbency advantages.

Moving the needle 1.5% to the right for a result of 50-50 reduces the Republican advantage only as far as 228 to 207. To get to the point marked on Mackerras pendulums as “swing required for majority”, the Democrats need to be winning the vote by 53.2-46.8. Under my no-frills settings, the 8.2% Democratic advantage calculated by Ruffini gets the Democrats to 230-205, which isn’t much different from the 233-202 Ruffini gets after pricing in candidate-related adjustments.

The effects of gerrymandering are evident in the relative paucity of Republican seats to be found between “EVEN” and 9% on the right side of the pendulum. Of the six states where maps have been redrawn by Republican-controlled legislatures, the Democrats need swings of more than 10% to gain any of the 30 notionally Republican seats in Texas; 9.2% to gain any out of 23 in Florida; 9.6% to gain any out of 11 in North Carolina; and they stand no chance of gains in Louisiana, Alabama or Tennessee.

Once the swings hit double-digits, gerrymandering starts to backfire: the process involves a party cutting its margins in strong seats to shore it up elsewhere, leaving few truly safe seats to fall back on when the wave becomes tidal. The Republicans have three seats in the 10% to 11% range in Texas; six between 10% and 15% in Florida; and four between 9% and 14% in North Carolina. The Democrats’ retaliatory gerrymander in California, endorsed by that state’s voters at a referendum, locks up Republican support in four of the state’s 52 districts with margins of between 12.6% and 33.0% (plus one Republican marginal at 1.9%), whereas eight seats have notional Democratic margins in single-digits.

Then there is the Senate, which must be reckoned on a case-by-case basis. Senators serve six-year terms over a staggered cycle in which a third are up for election every two years, with two-thirds of the states electing one of their two Senators at any given election. To this are added special elections for seats that have been warmed by placeholders since J.D. Vance resigned his Ohio seat to become Donald Trump’s running mate and Marco Rubio abandoned his seat in Florida to become Secretary of State.

Of the seats not up for election, 32 are held by Democrats, 31 by Republicans and two by independents – the latter caucus with the Democrats, but are balanced somewhat by the maverick tendencies of Pennsylvania Democrat John Fetterman. There is also the possibility, rated at 29% by Polymarket, that Republican incumbent Pete Ricketts will be unseated in Nebraska by Dan Osborn, an independent who says he will not caucus with either party.

The Democrats broadly defined can thus get to 50-50 if they win 16 of the 35 seats up for election, though the Vice-President’s casting vote means parity would little avail them. Seventeen will be required for an effective majority, and 18 for one that is Fetterman-proof. The presumption for most of the past two years has been that this task would be beyond them, as 22 of the 35 seats up for election are Republican-held. However, such has been the decline in the electoral standing of the President and his party that Polymarket now rates the Democrats a 63% chance of pulling it off.

The nine Democratic incumbents seeking re-election are presumably safe, as are the candidates seeking to succeed retiring members in Illinois, Minnesota and New Hampshire. However, the adventurous choice of Abdul El-Sayed to succeed Gary Peters means Michigan requires keeping an eye on, with Polymarket rating El-Sayed’s chances at 69%. The key Republican-held seats are as follows:

Israeli election live

Netanyahu’s right-wing governing coalition is expected to get well under the 61 seats needed for a majority, but can an alternative government be formed?

Results wrap

7:29am Friday (Three paragraph entry) With all votes counted, there’s been no change in support by bloc, and the result is 53 seats out of 120 for Netanyahu’s bloc (down 11 since the 2022 election), 48 for the Jewish opposition bloc (up two) and 19 for Arab parties (up nine to a record high). The oppositon will need support from both Ra’am (eight seats) and the Joint List (11) to get over the 61 seats needed for a majority. The overall result is 67-53 against Netanyahu, but will the 67 be able to cooperate?

Both the Netanyahu bloc and Arab parties outperformed pre-election polls, while the opposition greatly underperformed. The Netanyahu bloc had been expected to get about 50 seats and the Arab parties 13-15, leaving 55-57 expected seats for the opposition. However, the Netanyahu bloc did much worse than in polls for the right-wing Channel 14, which had them on 62 seats.

The only left-wing Jewish party, the Democrats, won eight seats (up four on Labor alone in 2022). Their eight seats was in line with polls. As I said in the introduction, Labor won 44 seats in 1992, but have plummeted since.

Live Commentary

2:29pm Contrary to my expectations, there was an update posted at 2am Israeli time (11am AEDT). With 90.5% counted, Wikipedia indicates there was no change in support by bloc from my previous update, with the Netanyahu bloc on 53 seats, the opposition bloc on 48 and the Arab parties on 19.

5:50am Thursday (Two paragraph entry) With 85.6% counted (all the ordinary votes), Ra’am is up to 5.8%, well above the 3.25% threshold. Haaretz has 53 seats for the Netanyahu bloc, 48 for the opposition bloc and 19 for Arab parties.

Most of the remaining votes should be counted tonight AEDT. These will mostly come from the Israeli military. There will be few ultra-Orthodox Jews and Arabs in the military, so ultra-Orthodox parties like Shas and UTJ (part of Netanyahu’s bloc) will do poorly, as will the Arab parties.

6:57pm There won’t be any more updates tonight. I’ll resume this tomorrow morning.

6:23pm The latest update from the electoral authority has 60% of votes counted. Ra’am is on 3.43%, only 0.18% above the threshold. Haaretz has 56 seats for Netanyahu’s bloc, 48 for the opposition bloc and 16 for Arab parties.

6:19pm The same source that I reported earlier was projecting a final outcome of Netanyahu bloc 53 seats, opposition bloc 48 and Arab parties 19 has revised to opposition bloc 54, Netanyahu bloc 53 and Arab parties 13. That’s due to Tel Aviv coming in big for the opposition.

5:52pm The Guardian says almost 10% voted at “special polling stations”, which seem like absent votes in Australia. These votes won’t be counted until Thursday. It’s not as if the ordinary votes haven’t been taking far too long to count!

5:45pm A better site for converting votes into seats is Haaretz.com. They have the Netanyahu bloc at 55 seats, the opposition bloc at 49 and Arab parties at 16.

5:39pm The Guardian’s new live blog says on current votes, the Netanyahu bloc has 56 seats, the opposition bloc 49 and Arab parties 15.

5:15pm With 52% of votes counted, the Democrats have increased to 6.9%, but Ra’am has fallen to 3.5%, just above the 3.25% threshold. The latest votes haven’t yet been converted into seats by Wikipedia.

3:21pm The latest votes give Netanyahu’s bloc 57 seats, the opposition bloc 46 and the Arab parties 17.

3:09pm With 37% of votes counted, the Joint List is up to 9.2% and Ra’am up to 3.8%. The latest votes haven’t yet been added to Wikipedia. I’ve seen final results projections that have the Netanyahu bloc winning 53 seats, the opposition bloc 48 and the Arab parties 19.

2pm With 28% of votes counted, the Joint List is up to 8.3% and Ra’am is up to 3.7%. With Ra’am now above the 3.25% threshold, Wikipedia has Netanyahu’s bloc now winning 59 seats.

1:45pm Wikipedia’s live seat count, based on results reported so far, gives Netanyahu’s bloc 63 seats, a majority. Results so far are very likely to be unrepresentative.

1:38pm With 21% counted, Likud leads Yashar by 23.4-15.7. The Arab Joint List is up to 6.5% and Ra’am is up to 3.2%. The other Netanyahu-bloc parties have 6.6%, 6.3%, 5.8% and 5.7%. The Democrats have 5.8%.

12:41pm Wtih 11% counted, Likud leads Yashar by 25.3-16.6. Two opposition bloc parties have 9.0% and 7.3% and other Netanyahu bloc parties have 6.6%, 6.5%, 5.9% and 5.2%, with the Democrats up to 5.6%. The Joint List Arab party has 4.4% and Ra’am just 1.7%.

11:57am With 5.7% of voters counted, Likud continues to lead Yashar by 27.8-16.3. Two opposition bloc parties follow with 9.0% and 8.1%, followed by four Netanyahu-bloc parties at 7.2%, 5.8%, 5.3% and 5.1%. The Democrats, the only left-wing Jewish party, have just 4.9%. The Arab parties are still doing badly, indicating that Arab booths haven’t been counted yet.

11:35am The two exit polls released earlier have been revised. Netanyahu’s bloc is now tied with the opposition bloc at 51 seats each, with the remaining 18 seats going to Arab parties.

11:24am There are 7.33 million eligible voters. On a turnout of 77.7%, there should be nearly 5.7 million votes. So the current 94,098 votes counted at 11:11 AEDT is 1.7% of the electorate. Likud continues to lead Yashar by 26.6-17.1 with the Arab parties still not doing well.

10:39am Official results are here. Even though this is the English version, you’ll need Google Translate to translate the Hebrew party names into English. Only 78 booths out of 12,495 and 14,400 votes had been counted as at 10:03am AEDT. So far Netanyahu’s Likud leads with 26.5% followed by 19.3% for Yashar, the party of Gadi Eisenkot, who is seen as the main opposition leader. The Arab parties are doing badly, suggesting that the polls counted so far don’t include Arab booths.

9:09am Final turnout was 77.7%, the highest since 2001.

7:22am Finally we have two exit polls. They have the opposition bloc winning 52-53 seats, the Netanyahu bloc 50 seats and Arab parties 17-18. Both blocs will be a long way from the 61 needed for a majority.

6:55am Wednesday The Guardian’s live blog says exit polls will be released after voting finishes at 7am AEDT. The first official results won’t be available until about 10am AEDT. Turnout with two hours to go was 74.3%, up from 66.3% at the same time in 2022, and ahead of final turnout in 2022 of 70.6%.

Polls close at 7am AEDT Wednesday for today’s Israeli election. From previous experience, it will take all day Wednesday to count most of the votes. There will be further counting over the next seven days before the result is finalized.

Israel uses national proportional representation with a 3.25% threshold to elect a total of 120 MPs. At the 2022 election, Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition of Likud (32 seats), Religious Zionists (14), Shas (11) and UTJ (seven) won a combined 64 seats, above the 61 needed for a majority.

Only polls for the right-wing Channel 14 continue to show a majority for the current governing coalition, with all other recent polls giving the government about 50 seats. There are two Arab parties, Ra’am and the Joint List, which have a combined 13–15 seats in the polls. This is a problem for formation of a non-Netanyahu government, as the leaders of the main Jewish parties have vowed not to form government with Arab support. Publication of polls has been banned since last Friday.

While Netanyahu is likely to lose, this October 18 article in The Guardian said that Israel is becoming more right-wing. While young people in other countries are more left-wing than older people, it’s the reverse in Israel. The only left-wing Jewish party is the Democrats, a merger of Labor and Meretz.

Labor used to form governments in Israel. They won 44 seats on 34.7% of the vote in 1992, but have plummeted since, winning just four seats on 3.7% in 2022. Meretz was to the left of Labor, but fell below the 3.25% threshold in 2022. In current polls, the Democrats are winning 8–10 seats.

Other elections: the US, Serbia and the Czech Republic

The US midterm elections are next Tuesday, with polls closing from late Wednesday morning AEDT. I wrote for The Conversation on Monday that there hasn’t been much change in Nate Silver’s midterm election forecast during October. Democrats have a 75% chance to gain control of the Senate and a 95% chance in the House of Representatives. They lead Republicans in the generic ballot by 9.5 points. Donald Trump’s net approval is -23.3.

Serbia elects its 250 MPs by national proportional representation with a 3% threshold that is waived for ethnic minority parties. With 97.6% reporting for Sunday’s election, the new Student List won 53.4% of the vote and 140 seats, while the governing populist right Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) won 39.7% and 103 seats (down 26 since the December 2023 election), with no other party clearing the threshold. The remaining seven seats went to ethnic minority parties. This ended the SNS’ period of government that had lasted since 2012.

The Czech Senate has 81 members, with 27 up for election every two years using single-member electorates with a two-round system. At October 9—10 and 16—17 elections, the governing populist right ANO 2011 won zero seats (down one), the first time a government has not won a seat. The centre-left Mayors and Independents won nine seats (down one) and two conservative parties a combined ten seats (up two). Overall, the two conservative parties combined hold 32 of the 81 seats, Mayors and Independents 14 and ANO 11.

Brazilian presidential runoff election live

On the first round results, Flávio Bolsonaro is the heavy favourite to win today’s runoff election, but polls show his lead narrowing. The Canadian NDP loses the British Columbian election they called two years early.

Results wrap

12:52pm (Three paragraph entry) With all votes counted, Lula wins by 51.8-48.2, a 3.6-point margin. It’s the first time the first round runner-up has won the runoff in Brazil, though this has occurred in other countries. It’s the biggest win for the left in Brazil since 2010. This will be Lula’s fourth term, after he won the 2002, 2006 and 2022 elections.

After understating the Bolsonaros in this election’s first round and in both the first round and runoff in 2022, I believe pollsters were afraid to show Lula ahead in their final polls. Five of the seven final polls gave Bolsonaro a one-point lead and one a 0.3-point lead, with Gerp giving him a three-point lead. This is evidence of “herding”, where polls converge to a consensus, but it can be the wrong consensus.

Brazil uses compulsory voting. Turnout for the runoff was 80.8%, up from 78.9% in the first round.

Live Commentary

11:03am With 89% counted, Lula leads by over three points, 51.5-48.5.

10:48am With 72% counted, Lula is up to a 51.0-49.0 lead over Bolsonaro, higher than his 50.9-49.1 win over Jair Bolsonaro in 2022.

10:36am With 60% in, Lula extends his lead to 1.04 points.

10:30am Wtih 51% in, Lula has retaken the overall lead, by 0.3 points. He is very likely to win from here.

10:21am Bolsonaro’s peak overall lead was one point, and is now down to 0.3 points with 43% counted.

10:18am Bolsonaro leads by 12.6 points in Espirito Santo with 86% counted, down from 17.0 points in the first round. That’s a 4.4-point swing to Lula.

10:10am Bolsonaro won the first round against Lula by 1.9 points. If the swings in Tocantins and the federal district are representative, Lula will win the runoff.

10:03am With 88% counted in the federal district, Bolsonaro’s lead has dropped to 8.8 points, increasing the swing to Lula to 4.4 points. However, Bolsonaro now leads by 1.8 points with 83% counted in Tocantins, decreasing the swing to Lula to 5.2 points there.

9:48am With 15% overall counted, Bolsonaro is barely ahead, 50.04-49.96. Bolsonaro was much further ahead at this point in the first round.

9:43am Bolsonaro won Tocantins by 7.0 points in the first round. With 55% counted there, Lula is winning by 0.2 points, a 7.2 point swing to Lula.

9:39am Bolsonaro won the federal district in the first round over Lula by 13.2 points. With 57% counted there, he’s winning by 9.4 points, a 3.8-point swing to Lula.

9:29am With 4.5% counted, Lula leads by 51.2-48.8. I think there’s a good chance Lula wins now. Bolsonaro was far ahead when the same percentage had been counted in the first round.

9:14am With 1.7% counted, Lula leads Bolsonaro by 52.1-47.9.

7:36am Polling hours have been extended until 9am AEDT owing to claims by the Lula campaign of intentional vote suppression by providing poor public transport.

7:11am Lula leads by 57.7-42.3 with 0.2% counted. I think this is mostly the votes cast abroad so far.

7:03am Monday The Guardian has live results of the Brazilian runoff. Early results in the first round were far better for Bolsonaro than his final margin.

Polls close at 7am AEDT Monday for the runoff of Brazil’s presidential election. Brazil uses staggered polling hours, where polls in a trailing time zone open and close an hour before those in a leading time zone. This means all polls will close at the same time.

At the October 4 first round election, Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former populist right president Jair Bolsonaro, defeated Workers’ Party incumbent Lula by 47.0–45.2. Of the remaining votes, 5.1% were for centrist candidates and 2.2% for another right-wing candidate.

As Bolsonaro’s first round vote share was under 50%, today’s runoff between Bolsonaro and Lula was needed. On the first round results, Bolsonaro is the heavy favourite. The most accurate first round poll (Futura) gave Bolsonaro a two-point lead. That poll gave him a 2.9-point lead in the runoff. Most polls for today’s runoff have Bolsonaro leading Lula by one point, a narrowing from a 4—5 point Bolsonaro lead after the first round results.

At the 2022 presidential election, Lula defeated Jair Bolsonaro in the runoff by 50.9-49.1, ending Bolsonaro’s presidency after one term. Polls had understated Bolsonaro at that election. In this election’s first round, polls understated Flávio Bolsonaro, but not as badly as they did his father.

Conservatives win Canadian British Columbia provincial election

Canadian provincial and federal elections use first past the post. At Saturday’s election in the province of British Columbia (polls closed at 2pm AEDT Sunday), the CBC has called 56 of the 93 seats for the Conservatives, 23 for the left-wing governing New Democratic Party (NDP) and two for the Greens at 5:45pm AEDT. Current vote shares are 48.1% Conservatives, 37.4% NDP, 11.0% Greens and 3.5% others. There are some votes that won’t be counted until November 6–10; in the past, these votes have leaned left.

At the 2024 BC election, the NDP had won a bare majority with 47 of 93 seats on 44.9% of the votes, retaining government for a third successive term, with the Conservatives winning 44 seats on 43.3% of votes and the Greens two on 8.2%. This disastrous election for the NDP was called two years early.

Before the election was called on September 22, the NDP had led the Conservatives by single-digit margins with about 10% for mostly right-wing others. The Conservatives gained from others, while the NDP lost votes to the Greens. The Conservatives appear to have exceeded final pre-election polls, but we’ll need to wait for final results to confirm.

The final result for last Monday’s Albertan secession referendum was a 75.0—25.0 win for “Remain in Canadia”, a 50.0-point margin. Two polls greatly understated Remain’s winning margin.

Israeli and NZ election updates

The Israeli election is on Tuesday, with polls closing at 7am AEDT Wednesday. This election uses national proportional representation with a 3.25% threshold to elect a total of 120 MPs. Only polls for the right-wing Channel 14 continue to show Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing governing coalition with a majority (61 seats), with all other recent polls giving the government about 50 seats.

The New Zealand election is on November 7. I wrote for the NZ edition of The Conversation last Wednesday that a Verian poll had right-wing parties leading left-wing parties by 7.3 points, meaning the right could win a majority of the seats even if Opportunity enters parliament.

Latvian and Bosnian election results

The October 3 Latvian election used PR in multi-member electorates with a national 5% threshold to elect 100 MPs. The green conservative United List won 41 seats (up 26 since the 2022 election), the populist right Latvia First 17 (up eight), a populist coalition 15 (new), the conservative National Alliance ten (down three), the centre-left Progressives ten (steady) and the conservative New Unity seven (down 19). An agrarian party lost its 16 seats after falling below the threshold.

Bosnia has a three-member presidency, with one elected by ethnic Bosniaks, one by Croats and one by Serbs using FPTP. At the October 4 election, the centre-left candidate won the Bosniak position, the conservative candidate won the Croat position and the populist right candidate won the Serb position. This was a gain since 2022 for the conservatives with the Croats with the other two unchanged.

Canadian Alberta secession referendum live

Polls give “Remain in Canada” a huge lead in Alberta. Also covered: updates on elections due in the next two weeks and the snap November 29 Spanish election.

Live Commentary

9:37am Thursday I’m not sure why it’s taking so long to get final results, but with 96% of polls counted, Remain leads by 75.1-24.9, a 50.2-point margin. Three of the five final polls had Remain leading by 47 to 53 points, but the other two (Angus Reid and Mainstreet) only gave Remain a 31-32 point lead. The error in the margin of those two polls was 18-19 points, or just under half of the 1936 Literary Digest poll’s error. That’s very poor.

9:31am Wednesday With 90% of polls reporting, Remain leads by 75.2-24.8. Contrary to my previous post, there’s been some movement against Remain in later counting.

5:42pm There was an error with the polls reporting number, so actually it’s 38% of polls counted, with Remain leading by 76.5-23.5. Urban areas that overwhelmingly support Remain have been relatively slow to count, so Remain should increase further in the final results.

4:16pm Finally results from Alberta! With 42% of polls reporting, Remain leads by 76.5-23.5, a 53-point margin. The polls at the top end of Remain support will be more accurate.

3:58pm Still no results from Alberta. Canada is usually quick to report results once polls close.

2:44pm Here’s the CBC’s referendum results page. There will be a projection once enough votes have been counted.

9:35am Tuesday Owing to delays in opening some polling stations in Alberta, some will stay open until later. No results will be released until all polls are closed at 10pm local time (3pm AEDT).

Polls close at 1pm AEDT today for a referendum on whether the right-wing province of Alberta should secede from Canada. If the referendum succeeds, there will be a binding referendum at a later date. Five polls of this referendum taken since last Tuesday gave “Remain in Canada” 31-to-53-point leads.

This referendum isn’t like the 2016 UK Brexit referendum. While most Brexit polls gave “Remain” a lead, there were polls with “Leave” ahead, and the “Remain” lead in polling aggregates was one to four points, compared with the 3.8-point official margin for “Leave”. For “Remain” to lose this referendum, the polls would need to be about as wrong as the infamous 1936 Literary Digest poll that understated Roosevelt’s popular vote margin at the 1936 US presidential election by 39 points.

At the 2025 Canadian federal election, the Conservatives defeated the centre-left Liberals in Alberta by 63.5-27.9 with 6.3% for the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) in Alberta. Nationally, the Liberals defeated the Conservatives by 43.8-41.3 with 6.3% NDP.

Also in Canada, the British Columbia election will occur this Saturday, with polls closing at 2pm AEDT Sunday. In analyst Éric Grenier’s aggregate, the Conservatives are winning 50 of the 93 seats on 45.4% of votes, the governing NDP 41 on 42.5% and the Greens two on 8.7%.

I previously wrote about the BC election on October 8, when the Conservatives had led by 47 seats to 44. The NDP had won a third successive term with a bare majority of 47 of the 93 seats in October 2024, but a snap election was called two years into a four-year term.

Grenier’s aggregate of federal Canadian polls gives the governing Liberals 236 of the 343 House of Commons seats on 47.3% of the vote, the Conservatives 69 on 31.8%, the separatist Quebec Bloc 21 on 6.1% (they only run in Quebec), the NDP 15 on 10.7% and the Greens two on 1.9%. Six federal by-elections have not yet been scheduled.

Election updates: Brazil, Israel and the US

The Brazilian presidential runoff election is next Sunday, with polls closing at 7am AEDT Monday. At the October 4 first round, Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former populist right president Jair Bolsonaro, defeated Workers’ Party incumbent Lula by 47.0-45.2. Most polls of the runoff suggest a small Bolsonaro advantage of 1-2 points. There has been a narrowing in Bolsonaro’s lead from immediately after the first round.

Israel’s October 27 election will use national proportional representation with a 3.25% threshold to elect a total of 120 MPs. Only polls for the right-wing Channel 14 continue to show Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing governing coalition with a majority (61 seats), with all other recent polls giving the government less than 50 seats.

I covered the US November 3 midterm elections for The Conversation on Monday. In Nate Silver’s forecast model, Democrats have a 75% chance to gain control of the Senate and a 94% chance to gain control of the House of Representatives. Democrats lead Republicans by 9.6 points in the generic ballot. Donald Trump’s net approval is -22.3. There hasn’t been much change since my previous Conversation article on October 7.

Snap Spanish election called for November 29

After the defeat of housing reform legislation in early October, Spanish Socialist PM Pedro Sánchez called a snap election for November 29, about nine months before it was due. Spain uses proportional representation in multi-member electorates to elect its 350 lower house MPs.

At the July 2023 election, the conservative People’s Party (PP) won 137 seats on 33.1% of votes, the Socialists 121 on 31.7%, the populist right Vox 33 on 12.4% and the left-wing Sumar 31 on 12.3%. Regionalist parties won the remaining 28 seats, and Sánchez was able to form a government with the support of regionalists and Sumar.

Since that election, Vox has risen to about 19% in the polls, with that support coming from left-wing parties. On current polls, the PP and Vox would win a combined majority of both the votes and seats.

UK Holborn and St Pancras by-election live

Labour will be defending Keir Starmer’s former seat against a challenge from Greens leader Zack Polanski. Also covered: three past and upcoming electoral events in Canada’s provinces.

5:42pm Friday Result: Labour HOLDS Holborn and St Pancras with 45.2% (down 3.7% since the 2024 general election in that seat). The Greens won 32.8% (up 22.4%), the Conservatives 7.1% (down 0.1%), Reform 5.9% (down 0.2%), the Lib Dems 3.4% (down 2.4%) and Restore 2.5% (new). In 2024, a left-wing independent had won 18.9% in this seat, so the swing to the Greens was inflated.

Polls close at 8am AEDT Friday for a by-election in former UK Labour PM Keir Starmer’s seat of Holborn and St Pancras after he resigned in early September. I will be out all Friday and won’t be able to update until after 5pm.

At the July 2024 UK general election, Starmer won 48.9% in this seat, a left-wing independent 18.9%, the Greens 10.4%, the Conservatives 7.2%, the populist right Reform 6.1% and the Liberal Democrats 5.8%. A total of 15 candidates are contesting the by-election, including Greens leader Zack Polanski.

In the Election Maps UK national poll aggregate, Labour leads with 27.2%, followed by Reform at 23.3%, the Conservatives at 19.7%, the Greens at 10.0%, the Lib Dems at 10.0% and the populist right Restore at 3.9%. Labour PM Andy Burnham is the only party leader with a net positive approval at +9, with Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch at -1, Lib Dem leader Ed Davey at -5, Polanski at -24 and Reform leader Nigel Farage at -25. Starmer had a -41 net approval before he was ousted.

Seat projections give Labour 280 of the 650 House of Commons seats, the Conservatives 110, Reform 96, the Lib Dems 69, the Scottish National Party (SNP) 44 and the Greens nine. If this occurred, Labour could form government with the support of the Lib Dems.

Canada: past and upcoming electoral events

All Canadian federal and provincial elections use first past the post. At Monday’s Quebec provincial election, the separatist Quebec Party (PQ) won 59 of the 127 seats (up 56 since the 2022 election), the centre-left Liberals 40 (up 19), the Conservatives 19 (up 19), the left-wing separatist Quebec Solidaire (QS) nine (down two) and the conservative nationalist CAQ zero (down 90). The PQ is short of the 64 seats needed for a majority.

Vote shares were 28.0% PQ (up 13.4%), 24.2% Liberals (up 9.9%), 20.7% Conservatives (up 7.8%), 13.4% CAQ (down 27.6%) and 12.4% QS (down 3.0%). A massive crash in the CAQ vote combined with FPTP gave them zero seats after previously winning 90 of 125.

A referendum on whether the right-wing province of Alberta should secede from Canada will occur on October 19. If the referendum succeeds, there will be a binding referendum at a later date. Three September polls of this referendum gave “Remain in Canada” 40 to 50 point leads.

A snap election for the province of British Columbia has been called for October 24, two years early. At the October 2024 BC election, the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) won a bare majority with 47 of the 93 seats on 44.9% of the vote. The Conservatives won 44 seats on 44.3% and the Greens two seats on 8.2%. The NDP won a third successive term in government at that election.

In analyst Éric Grenier’s aggregate, the Conservatives lead the NDP by 44.6-43.3 with 8.7% for the Greens for this election. Seat point estimates have the Conservatives winning 47 seats, the NDP 44 and the Greens two.

Israeli election: October 27

Israel’s October 27 election will use national proportional representation with a 3.25% threshold to elect a total of 120 MPs. Only polls conducted for the right-wing Channel 14 give Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing governing coalition more than the 61 seats needed for a majority, with most other polls giving the government under 50 seats. However, even if the governing coalition loses its majority, it may be difficult to form an alternative government.

US and NZ elections updates

I wrote about both the US November 3 midterm elections and the November 7 NZ election for The Conversation on Wednesday. In the US, Democrats have a 9.6-point generic ballot lead in Nate Silver’s midterms model. They have a 74% chance to gain control of the Senate and a 94% chance in the House of Representatives. Donald Trump’s net approval is up from a record low to -22.5.

In NZ, a Reid Research poll gave the left-wing bloc a 2.1-point lead, the first left lead in any poll since June. A Verian poll had the right holding a 3.4-point lead. In both polls, Opportunity would win the balance of power.

Brazilian presidential first round election live

It’s unlikely either Lula or Flavio Bolsonaro will win a majority in today’s Brazilian presidential election, so the runoff on October 25 will probably be needed. Runoff polls slightly favour Bolsonaro.

Live Commentary

9:31am Tuesday In elections to the legislature, Bolsonaro’s Liberals won 121 of the 513 seats in the Chamber of Deputies (up 22 since 2022), while the left-wing coalition won 88 seats (up 11). Other parties winning seats appear to be centrist to right-wing. In the Senate, the Liberals won 19 of the 54 seats up for election (up 14), with the left holding its six seats. The Liberals have a total of 29 of the 81 seats, to nine for the left.

1:28pm (Two paragraph entry) With all first round votes counted, Bolsonaro defeated Lula by 47.0-45.2, a 1.9-point margin. Of the remaining votes, 5.1% were for centrist candidates and 2.2% for another right-wing candidate. Lula won’t win the October 25 runoff unless he gains votes directly from Bolsonaro.

Most polls understated F. Bolsonaro, but not as badly as they understated J. Bolsonaro in 2022. The most accurate first round poll (Futura) gave Bolsonaro a two-point lead. That poll gives him a 2.9-point lead in the runoff.

10:53am There has been a clear trend to Lula in late counting, with Bolsonaro’s lead down to 47.6-44.5 with 95% in.

10:13am With 85% counted, F. Bolsonaro leads Lula by 48.5-43.5. In 2022, Lula won the first round over J. Bolsonaro by 48.4-43.2.

9:45am With 65% counted, Bolsonaro falls below 50%, but leads Lula by 49.6-42.3. Counting has stalled for a while.

9:14am With 47% counted, Bolsonaro leads Lula by 50.2-41.6. Bolsonaro probably won’t get a first round majority, but it looks as if he’ll win the first round and be the heavy favourite in the October 25 runoff.

8:40am With 31% counted, Bolsonaro leads Lula by 50.7-41.1. While there remains a small swing to Lula in the federal district, there’s a big swing to Bolsonaro in Tocantins. With 84% counted there, he leads by 50.7-43.1. In 2022, Lula beat J. Bolsonaro in Tocantins by 50.4-44.0 in the first round.

8:05am With 12% counted, Bolsonaro leads by 51.1-40.7. The federal district is the most complete with 70% counted. If current figures there are accurate, Lula will have a small swing to him there compared with the first round result in 2022.

7:35am With 2% counted, Bolsonaro leads Lula by 49.7-41.8.

6:59am Monday The Guardian has live results. In 2022, initial results favoured Bolsonaro more than the final figures.

Polls close at 7am AEDT Monday (note, not AEST anymore) for the first round of Brazil’s presidential election. Brazil uses staggered polling hours, where polls in a trailing time zone open and close an hour before those in a leading time zone. This means all polls will close at the same time.

Unless one candidate wins more than 50% of the vote today, a runoff between the top two will occur on October 25. The two main candidates are Workers’ Party incumbent Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former populist right president Jair Bolsonaro. At the 2022 presidential election, Lula defeated Jair Bolsonaro in the runoff by 50.9-49.1, ending Bolsonaro’s presidency after one term. Polls had understated Bolsonaro at that election.

Brazilian polls include undecided, so both Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are doing better than their current vote shares indicate, with Lula usually ahead in first round polls. The other four listed candidates are in the single digits. With undecided removed, I expect the first round winner (Lula or Bolsonaro) to get at least mid-40s, not far from a majority.

In 12 polls of the likely runoff by different pollsters taken since September 24, Bolsonaro has an average lead of 0.5 points, with a range from a four-point Lula lead to a 5.5-point Bolsonaro lead. Bolsonaro has gained a lead for the runoff since I last wrote about Brazil two weeks ago.

Federal elections to the legislature will also be held today. In the Senate, 54 of the 81 seats will be up for election with two senators elected for each of Brazil’s 27 states using first past the post; the other 27 senators were elected in 2022. All 513 seats in the Chamber of Deputies will be elected by proportional representation using multi-member electorates based on the states.

US and NZ elections updates

US midterm elections occur on November 3. I wrote for The Conversation on September 25 that Donald Trump’s US net approval was at a record low -23.0 in Nate Silver’s aggregate (it’s now -23.5). In Silver’s forecast model, Democrats now lead Republicans by 9.6 points on the generic ballot (9.1 points on September 25). They have a 73% chance to gain control of the Senate and a 93% chance to gain control of the House of Representatives (previously 69% and 91% respectively).

The New Zealand election is on November 7. I wrote for the NZ edition of The Conversation last Tuesday that the right-wing parties had a lead over the left-wing parties, with the centrist Opportunity a reasonable chance to gain the balance of power. The Greens surged four points to a record high 16% in a late September Verian poll.

Canadian Quebec provincial election on Tuesday AEDT

Results of the Canadian Quebec provincial election will come out on Tuesday AEDT. The 127 seats are elected by FPTP. At the 2022 Quebec election, the conservative nationalist CAQ won 90 of the 125 seats on 41.0% of the vote, the centre-left Liberals 21 on 14.4%, the left-wing separatist Quebec Solidaire (QS) 11 on 15.4%, the separatist Quebec Party (PQ) three on 14.6% and the Conservatives zero on 12.9%.

Analyst Éric Grenier says the polls give the PQ 30.0% of the vote, the Liberals 23.5%, the Conservatives 19.4%, the CAQ 15.0% and QS 10.8%. Seat projections give the PQ a point estimate of 68 seats, the Liberals 36, the Conservatives 16, QS seven and the CAQ zero. If this occurs, the CAQ would be wiped out after winning a big majority in 2022, while the PQ would win a majority from just three seats.

UK by-election in Starmer’s former seat on Thursday

Former UK Labour PM Keir Starmer resigned as Member for Holborn and St Pancras in early September. The by-election for this seat will occur on Thursday. At the July 2024 UK general election, Starmer won 48.9% in this seat, a left-wing independent 18.9%, the Greens 10.4%, the Conservatives 7.2%, the populist right Reform 6.1% and the Liberal Democrats 5.8%. A total of 15 candidates are contesting the by-election, including Greens leader Zack Polanski.

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