Adrian Beaumont - The Poll Bludger

UK Holborn and St Pancras by-election live

Labour will be defending Keir Starmer’s former seat against a challenge from Greens leader Zack Polanski. Also covered: three past and upcoming electoral events in Canada’s provinces.

5:42pm Friday Result: Labour HOLDS Holborn and St Pancras with 45.2% (down 3.7% since the 2024 general election in that seat). The Greens won 32.8% (up 22.4%), the Conservatives 7.1% (down 0.1%), Reform 5.9% (down 0.2%), the Lib Dems 3.4% (down 2.4%) and Restore 2.5% (new). In 2024, a left-wing independent had won 18.9% in this seat, so the swing to the Greens was inflated.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Polls close at 8am AEDT Friday for a by-election in former UK Labour PM Keir Starmer’s seat of Holborn and St Pancras after he resigned in early September. I will be out all Friday and won’t be able to update until after 5pm.

At the July 2024 UK general election, Starmer won 48.9% in this seat, a left-wing independent 18.9%, the Greens 10.4%, the Conservatives 7.2%, the populist right Reform 6.1% and the Liberal Democrats 5.8%. A total of 15 candidates are contesting the by-election, including Greens leader Zack Polanski.

In the Election Maps UK national poll aggregate, Labour leads with 27.2%, followed by Reform at 23.3%, the Conservatives at 19.7%, the Greens at 10.0%, the Lib Dems at 10.0% and the populist right Restore at 3.9%. Labour PM Andy Burnham is the only party leader with a net positive approval at +9, with Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch at -1, Lib Dem leader Ed Davey at -5, Polanski at -24 and Reform leader Nigel Farage at -25. Starmer had a -41 net approval before he was ousted.

Seat projections give Labour 280 of the 650 House of Commons seats, the Conservatives 110, Reform 96, the Lib Dems 69, the Scottish National Party (SNP) 44 and the Greens nine. If this occurred, Labour could form government with the support of the Lib Dems.

Canada: past and upcoming electoral events

All Canadian federal and provincial elections use first past the post. At Monday’s Quebec provincial election, the separatist Quebec Party (PQ) won 59 of the 127 seats (up 56 since the 2022 election), the centre-left Liberals 40 (up 19), the Conservatives 19 (up 19), the left-wing separatist Quebec Solidaire (QS) nine (down two) and the conservative nationalist CAQ zero (down 90). The PQ is short of the 64 seats needed for a majority.

Vote shares were 28.0% PQ (up 13.4%), 24.2% Liberals (up 9.9%), 20.7% Conservatives (up 7.8%), 13.4% CAQ (down 27.6%) and 12.4% QS (down 3.0%). A massive crash in the CAQ vote combined with FPTP gave them zero seats after previously winning 90 of 125.

A referendum on whether the right-wing province of Alberta should secede from Canada will occur on October 19. If the referendum succeeds, there will be a binding referendum at a later date. Three September polls of this referendum gave “Remain in Canada” 40 to 50 point leads.

A snap election for the province of British Columbia has been called for October 24, two years early. At the October 2024 BC election, the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) won a bare majority with 47 of the 93 seats on 44.9% of the vote. The Conservatives won 44 seats on 44.3% and the Greens two seats on 8.2%. The NDP won a third successive term in government at that election.

In analyst Éric Grenier’s aggregate, the Conservatives lead the NDP by 44.6-43.3 with 8.7% for the Greens for this election. Seat point estimates have the Conservatives winning 47 seats, the NDP 44 and the Greens two.

Israeli election: October 27

Israel’s October 27 election will use national proportional representation with a 3.25% threshold to elect a total of 120 MPs. Only polls conducted for the right-wing Channel 14 give Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing governing coalition more than the 61 seats needed for a majority, with most other polls giving the government under 50 seats. However, even if the governing coalition loses its majority, it may be difficult to form an alternative government.

US and NZ elections updates

I wrote about both the US November 3 midterm elections and the November 7 NZ election for The Conversation on Wednesday. In the US, Democrats have a 9.6-point generic ballot lead in Nate Silver’s midterms model. They have a 74% chance to gain control of the Senate and a 94% chance in the House of Representatives. Donald Trump’s net approval is up from a record low to -22.5.

In NZ, a Reid Research poll gave the left-wing bloc a 2.1-point lead, the first left lead in any poll since June. A Verian poll had the right holding a 3.4-point lead. In both polls, Opportunity would win the balance of power.

Brazilian presidential first round election live

It’s unlikely either Lula or Flavio Bolsonaro will win a majority in today’s Brazilian presidential election, so the runoff on October 25 will probably be needed. Runoff polls slightly favour Bolsonaro.

Live Commentary

9:31am Tuesday In elections to the legislature, Bolsonaro’s Liberals won 121 of the 513 seats in the Chamber of Deputies (up 22 since 2022), while the left-wing coalition won 88 seats (up 11). Other parties winning seats appear to be centrist to right-wing. In the Senate, the Liberals won 19 of the 54 seats up for election (up 14), with the left holding its six seats. The Liberals have a total of 29 of the 81 seats, to nine for the left.

1:28pm (Two paragraph entry) With all first round votes counted, Bolsonaro defeated Lula by 47.0-45.2, a 1.9-point margin. Of the remaining votes, 5.1% were for centrist candidates and 2.2% for another right-wing candidate. Lula won’t win the October 25 runoff unless he gains votes directly from Bolsonaro.

Most polls understated F. Bolsonaro, but not as badly as they understated J. Bolsonaro in 2022. The most accurate first round poll (Futura) gave Bolsonaro a two-point lead. That poll gives him a 2.9-point lead in the runoff.

10:53am There has been a clear trend to Lula in late counting, with Bolsonaro’s lead down to 47.6-44.5 with 95% in.

10:13am With 85% counted, F. Bolsonaro leads Lula by 48.5-43.5. In 2022, Lula won the first round over J. Bolsonaro by 48.4-43.2.

9:45am With 65% counted, Bolsonaro falls below 50%, but leads Lula by 49.6-42.3. Counting has stalled for a while.

9:14am With 47% counted, Bolsonaro leads Lula by 50.2-41.6. Bolsonaro probably won’t get a first round majority, but it looks as if he’ll win the first round and be the heavy favourite in the October 25 runoff.

8:40am With 31% counted, Bolsonaro leads Lula by 50.7-41.1. While there remains a small swing to Lula in the federal district, there’s a big swing to Bolsonaro in Tocantins. With 84% counted there, he leads by 50.7-43.1. In 2022, Lula beat J. Bolsonaro in Tocantins by 50.4-44.0 in the first round.

8:05am With 12% counted, Bolsonaro leads by 51.1-40.7. The federal district is the most complete with 70% counted. If current figures there are accurate, Lula will have a small swing to him there compared with the first round result in 2022.

7:35am With 2% counted, Bolsonaro leads Lula by 49.7-41.8.

6:59am Monday The Guardian has live results. In 2022, initial results favoured Bolsonaro more than the final figures.

Polls close at 7am AEDT Monday (note, not AEST anymore) for the first round of Brazil’s presidential election. Brazil uses staggered polling hours, where polls in a trailing time zone open and close an hour before those in a leading time zone. This means all polls will close at the same time.

Unless one candidate wins more than 50% of the vote today, a runoff between the top two will occur on October 25. The two main candidates are Workers’ Party incumbent Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former populist right president Jair Bolsonaro. At the 2022 presidential election, Lula defeated Jair Bolsonaro in the runoff by 50.9-49.1, ending Bolsonaro’s presidency after one term. Polls had understated Bolsonaro at that election.

Brazilian polls include undecided, so both Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are doing better than their current vote shares indicate, with Lula usually ahead in first round polls. The other four listed candidates are in the single digits. With undecided removed, I expect the first round winner (Lula or Bolsonaro) to get at least mid-40s, not far from a majority.

In 12 polls of the likely runoff by different pollsters taken since September 24, Bolsonaro has an average lead of 0.5 points, with a range from a four-point Lula lead to a 5.5-point Bolsonaro lead. Bolsonaro has gained a lead for the runoff since I last wrote about Brazil two weeks ago.

Federal elections to the legislature will also be held today. In the Senate, 54 of the 81 seats will be up for election with two senators elected for each of Brazil’s 27 states using first past the post; the other 27 senators were elected in 2022. All 513 seats in the Chamber of Deputies will be elected by proportional representation using multi-member electorates based on the states.

US and NZ elections updates

US midterm elections occur on November 3. I wrote for The Conversation on September 25 that Donald Trump’s US net approval was at a record low -23.0 in Nate Silver’s aggregate (it’s now -23.5). In Silver’s forecast model, Democrats now lead Republicans by 9.6 points on the generic ballot (9.1 points on September 25). They have a 73% chance to gain control of the Senate and a 93% chance to gain control of the House of Representatives (previously 69% and 91% respectively).

The New Zealand election is on November 7. I wrote for the NZ edition of The Conversation last Tuesday that the right-wing parties had a lead over the left-wing parties, with the centrist Opportunity a reasonable chance to gain the balance of power. The Greens surged four points to a record high 16% in a late September Verian poll.

Canadian Quebec provincial election on Tuesday AEDT

Results of the Canadian Quebec provincial election will come out on Tuesday AEDT. The 127 seats are elected by FPTP. At the 2022 Quebec election, the conservative nationalist CAQ won 90 of the 125 seats on 41.0% of the vote, the centre-left Liberals 21 on 14.4%, the left-wing separatist Quebec Solidaire (QS) 11 on 15.4%, the separatist Quebec Party (PQ) three on 14.6% and the Conservatives zero on 12.9%.

Analyst Éric Grenier says the polls give the PQ 30.0% of the vote, the Liberals 23.5%, the Conservatives 19.4%, the CAQ 15.0% and QS 10.8%. Seat projections give the PQ a point estimate of 68 seats, the Liberals 36, the Conservatives 16, QS seven and the CAQ zero. If this occurs, the CAQ would be wiped out after winning a big majority in 2022, while the PQ would win a majority from just three seats.

UK by-election in Starmer’s former seat on Thursday

Former UK Labour PM Keir Starmer resigned as Member for Holborn and St Pancras in early September. The by-election for this seat will occur on Thursday. At the July 2024 UK general election, Starmer won 48.9% in this seat, a left-wing independent 18.9%, the Greens 10.4%, the Conservatives 7.2%, the populist right Reform 6.1% and the Liberal Democrats 5.8%. A total of 15 candidates are contesting the by-election, including Greens leader Zack Polanski.

German state elections live

The populist right AfD came close to winning a majority of seats in Saxony-Anhalt last fortnight, but they are very unlikely to repeat that performance at today’s state elections.

Live Commentary

9:30am Tuesday Correction to Berlin seat numbers: (Two paragraph entry) Yesterday, Wikipedia was showing a total of 130 MPs elected in Berlin, but that’s now 158, down only one since 2023. The Left won 47 seats (up 25), the CDU 34 (down 18), the AfD 29 (up 12), the Greens 26 (down eight) and the SPD 22 (down 12).

A coalition of the Left, Greens and SPD would have 95 seats, well above the 80 needed for a majority. The Greens and SPD could also form a coalition with the CDU, which would have 82 seats. But the current governing coalition of the CDU and SPD suffered the worst losses.

11:09am (Two paragraph entry) With all votes counted in Berlin, the Left won 25.7% of the vote (up 13.5% since 2023), the CDU 18.8% (down 9.5%), the AfD 16.3% (up 7.2%), the Greens 14.3% (down 4.1%), the SPD 12.1% (down 6.3%) and the BSW 4.7% (new). The Left overperformed polls, while the CDU and AfD slightly underperformed. Turnout was 74.2% (up 11.3%).

There were a total of 130 MPs, down 29 since 2023. The Left won 38 seats (up 16), the CDU 28 (down 24), the AfD 24 (up seven), the Greens 22 (down 12) and the SPD 18 (down 16). A coalition of the Left, Greens and SPD would have a clear majority with 78 of the 130 seats.

9:49am (Two paragraph entry) With all votes counted in MV, the AfD won 38.2% of the vote (up 21.5% since 2021), the SPD 35.5% (down 4.1%), the Left 6.5% (down 3.4%), the Greens 5.7% (down 0.6%), the CDU 4.9% (down 8.4%), the BSW 4.8% (new) and the FDP 1.0% (down 4.8%). The AfD and SPD slightly overperformed their polls, while the Left and CDU underperformed (disastrously so for the CDU). Turnout was 78.1%, up 7.3%.

There were a total of 71 MPs elected, down eight since 2021. The AfD won 32 seats (up 18), the SPD 29 (down five), the Left five (down four), the Greens five (steady), the CDU zero (down 12) and the FDP zero (down five). The SPD, Left and Greens combined have 39 of the 71 seats, enough for a majority. The CDU and FDP lost all their seats after falling below the 5% threshold. This is the first time the CDU has failed to win seats at a German state election.

7:43am With 99.8% reporting in MV, the CDU and BSW are still below the 5% threshold with 4.9% and 4.8% respectively.

7:25am With 96% reporting in Berlin, the Left leads with 25.8%, followed by the CDU at 18.8%, the AfD 15.9%, the Greens 14.5%, the SPD 12.2% and the BSW 4.7%. So the BSW will narrowly fall below the 5% threshold in both state elections. Berlin will be a clear win for the three left-wing parties.

7:06am With 99% reporting in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (MV), the CDU has crashed below the 5% threshold, and are currently on 4.9%. Current vote shares are 38.4% AfD, 35.4% SPD, 6.5% Left, 5.6% Greens, 4.9% CDU, 4.8% BSW and just 1.0% FDP. If that result holds, only four parties will qualify, and a government of SPD, Left and Greens will be formed.

Polls close at 2am AEST Monday for today’s German state elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. I will report results after I wake up, which should be before 7am. Both elections use statewide proportional representation with a 5% threshold. There will be at least 71 MPs elected in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and at least 130 in Berlin.

At the 2021 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election, the centre-left SPD won 34 of the 79 seats on 39.6% of the vote, the populist right AfD 14 seats on 16.7%, the conservative CDU 12 seats on 13.3%, the Left party nine seats on 9.9%, the Greens five seats on 6.3% and the pro-business FDP five seats on 5.8%. A governing coalition of the SPD and Left was formed.

Polls for today’s election have the AfD just ahead of the SPD with both in the 30s, followed by the Left in the low double digits, the CDU at 6-7%, the Greens at 5% and the economically left but socially right BSW at 3-5%. It will be easier for the SPD to form a left-wing government if the Greens clear the 5% threshold.

At the 2023 Berlin election, the CDU won 52 of the 159 seats on 28.2% of the vote, the SPD 34 seats on 18.4%, the Greens 34 seats on 18.4%, the Left 22 seats on 12.2% and the AfD 17 seats on 9.1%. Although the combined left parties held a majority of seats, the CDU and SPD formed a governing coalition.

In Berlin, parties that win at least one of the 78 single-member electorates using first-past-the-post are exempt from the 5% threshold. Polls for today’s election have the Left just ahead of the CDU with both in the low 20s, followed by the AfD at 18%, the Greens at 15-16%, the SPD at 10-12% and the BSW at 3-5%. These polls would mean a majority of seats for the three left-wing parties, but no majority for the current CDU/SPD government.

There hasn’t been much change in German federal polls since the September 6 Saxony-Anhalt state election. The AfD is in the high 20s, with the CDU/CSU drifting below 20%. The combined vote for the three left parties is still usually below 40%.

US midterm elections updates

The US midterm elections are on November 3. I wrote for The Conversation last Monday that Democrats’ chances at the midterms depend on the Iran war’s impact on petrol prices in the lead-up to the elections. Nate Silver’s forecast model currently gives Democrats a 65% chance to gain control of the federal Senate (57% last Monday) and a 90% chance in the House of Representatives (86% previously). Democrats lead Republicans on the generic ballot by 8.6 points (previously 8.1 points). Donald Trump’s net approval is -20.5 (previously -19.7).

Left bloc wins Swedish election narrowly

Sweden uses national PR with a 4% threshold to elect its 349 MPs. At the September 13 election, the left-wing bloc of four parties defeated the right-wing governing bloc of four parties by 176 seats to 173 on overall vote shares of 49.6-48.8; this was a three-seat swing to the left since the 2022 election. There was a late narrowing in the left bloc’s lead in the polls, and a small right-wing party (the Liberals) won 5.3% after they had polled below the 4% threshold for a long time.

The populist right Sweden Democrats were down 3.0% to 17.5% of the vote, their first drop since they became a parliamentary party in 2010. The main centre-left party, the Social Democrats, dropped 2.3% to 28.0%, their worst vote share since 1911.

Brazilian presidential election on October 4 and 25

The first round of the Brazilian presidential election will be held on October 4, with a runoff on October 25 if nobody wins a first round majority. The two main candidates are Workers Party incumbent Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former populist right president Jair Bolsonaro. Seven polls taken since mid-September of a likely runoff range from a 7.3-point Lula lead to a 4.4-point Bolsonaro lead, with an average Lula lead of 0.6 points. Bolsonaro has gained since I last wrote about Brazil in mid-August.

German Saxony-Anhalt state election live

The populist right AfD has a realistic chance to win its first ever parliamentary majority at a German state election with just over 40% of votes in polls.

Live Commentary

9:05am Tuesday The UK parliamentary by-election for Holborn and St Pancras will be held on October 8.

12:08pm Turnout for this election was an all-time high of 77.8% (up 17.5% since 2021).

11:19am (Three paragraph entry) With all votes counted, the AfD has won 43.8% of the vote (up 23.0% since 2021), the CDU 17.2% (down 19.9%), the SPD 9.3% (up 0.9%), the Greens 8.9% (up 3.0%), the Left 8.6% (down 2.4%), the BSW 5.3% (new) and the FDP 2.6% (down 3.8%).

Owing to the removal of the extra 14 seats from 2021, seat changes will sum to -14. The AfD won 39 of the 83 seats, three short of a majority (up 16), the CDU 15 (down 25), the SPD eight (down one), the Greens eight (up two), the Left eight (down four), the BSW five (new) and the FDP zero (down seven). To keep the AfD from government will require an alliance of all five non-AfD parliamentary parties.

The AfD did slightly better than polls expected, with the CDU doing much worse. The Greens and BSW also overperformed, with the Left underperforming. The AfD had its highest vote share at a state election and a massive swing to it. In a little good news for the overall German left, the combined vote share for the SPD, Greens and Left was 26.8% (up 1.5%).

10:11am While overall seat numbers are proportional to vote share for parties that pass the 5% threshold, Saxony-Anhalt has 41 single-member seats elected by FPTP. In 2021, the CDU won 40 of these seats to one for the AfD. At this election, the AfD is winning 38 with three for the Left party. In 2021, 14 extra seats were added owing to the overhang caused by the CDU’s dominance of the single-member seats to maintain overall proportionality, but no extra seats will be needed this time, with the minimum 83 total seats elected.

9:42am With 99.6% counted, the BSW is up to 5.3%, ensuring they will win seats and deny the AfD a majority. The AfD has dropped back to 43.9%.

7:17am With 95.1% counted, the BSW remains at 5.2%, above the 5% threshold.

6:53am Monday (two paragraph entry) With 92.3% counted, the AfD has won 45.4% of the votes, but not a majority of seats as six parties cleared the 5% threshold. Current vote shares are 45.4% AfD, 16.5% CDU, 8.9% SPD, 8.8% Greens, 8.3% Left and 5.2% BSW, with the FDP well below the 5% threshold on 2.5%.

Current seats are 39 of 83 for the AfD, below the 42 needed for a majority, 16 CDU, eight SPD, eight Greens, eight Left and four BSW. We’ll need to wait for final results to confirm whether the BSW clears the 5% threshold (they’re at 5.2% currently).

Polls close at 2am AEST Monday for today’s German Saxony-Anhalt state election. I will report results after I wake up, which should be before 7am.

This election will be held using statewide proportional representation with a 5% threshold to elect at least 83 MPs. Polls have the populist right AfD surging into the low 40s, far ahead of the conservative governing CDU who are in the low 20s. The Left party is in the low double digits and the centre-left SPD in the high single digits.

Three other parties are at or just below the 5% threshold: the Greens, pro-business FDP and economically left but socially right BSW. The Greens are at 5-6%, BSW at 3-4% and FDP at 3%, so the Greens are more likely than not to clear the threshold. If only the AfD, CDU, Left and SPD clear the threshold, the AfD would have a reasonable chance to win its first ever parliamentary majority in a state election.

At the 2021 Saxony-Anhalt election, the CDU won 40 of the 97 seats on 37.1% of the votes, the AfD 23 on 20.8%, the Left 12 on 11.0%, the SPD nine on 8.4%, the FDP seven on 6.4% and the Greens six on 5.9%. Polls conducted before that election had given the CDU 1-7 point leads over the AfD, much lower than the CDU’s actual 16.3-point margin.

The poll error in 2021 may raise expectations that the AfD will once again underperform their polls. However, it should not be assumed that poll errors will behave the same way from one election to the next. For example, polls at the 2025 Australian federal election understated Labor after overstating them in 2022 and 2019.

In German federal polls, the AfD has taken the lead from the CDU/CSU. At the February 2025 federal election, the CDU/CSU won 28.5% of the vote, the AfD 20.8%, the SPD 16.4%, the Greens 11.6% and the Left 8.8%. A coalition of the CDU/CSU and SPD was formed after that election.

Current polls have the AfD rising into the high 20s and the CDU/CSU dropping to the low 20s. There’s been little improvement in the vote share for the combined left (SPD, Greens and Left), with these parties at 40% or below in recent polls (36.8% at the last election).

There are two German state elections on September 20: Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. In Berlin, polls have the combined left-wing parties just below 50%, so the left should win that election. In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the AfD has surged ahead of the SPD after the SPD won the 2021 election by 39.6-16.7 over the AfD. The AfD will probably win the most seats, but be short of a majority.

Swedish election next Sunday

Sweden uses national PR with a 4% threshold to elect its 349 MPs. At the 2022 Swedish election, the conservative Moderates formed a government that was supported by the populist right Sweden Democrats. Polls for next Sunday’s election have the Red-Green bloc of four parties leading the right-wing bloc of four parties by low to high single digit margins. One of the right-wing parties, the Liberals, is consistently polling below the 4% threshold. If they miss the threshold, it will assist the left.

UK by-election for Starmer’s former seat coming soon

Former UK Labour PM Keir Starmer resigned as Member for Holborn and St Pancras last week. A date for the by-election has not yet been set, but it will probably occur in the next month. At the July 2024 UK general election, Starmer won 48.9% in this seat, a left-wing independent 18.9%, the Greens 10.4%, the Conservatives 7.2%, the populist right Reform 6.1% and the Liberal Democrats 5.8%. Greens leader Zack Polanski will contest.

Three Canadian federal by-elections live

Today’s by-elections feature one in Quebec which the Conservatives won narrowly in 2025. Also: updates on the US midterms and a possible AfD majority in a German state election next Sunday.

Live Commentary

9:48am Wednesday (Two paragraph entry) With all 204 booths reporting in NVC, results are 58.6% Liberals (down 1.3% since 2025), 29.2% Tories (down 4.5%), 8.7% Greens (up 7.0%) and 3.1% NDP (down 1.1%). The Liberal winning margin of 29.4 points far exceeded the poll that gave them a 16.5-point margin.

The Liberals have governed in Canada since winning the October 2015 election. In late 2024, they had looked certain to lose the 2025 election in a landslide. The Trump factor helped the Liberals recover to win the 2025 election, and he is continuing to hurt the Canadian Tories, who suffered moderate to huge swings against them in all three by-elections.

4:32pm With all 200 polls reporting in BEY, results are 55.7% Liberals (down 12.1% since 2025), 25.8% NDP (up 18.9%) and 15.5% Tories (down 8.0%). There was a big swing to the NDP at the expense of both the Liberals and Tories. The one poll in this seat overstated the Tories and understated the NDP.

2:51pm With all 212 polls reporting in CLF, results are 51.3% Liberals (up 20.2% since the 2025 election), 32.9% Bloc (up 1.7%) and 12.5% Tories (down 21.6%). This huge win for the Liberals was far bigger than in the two August polls that gave them 3-5 point leads over the Bloc (actual 18.4 points).

1:59pm The CBC has called NVC for the Liberals, as they lead the Tories by 57.9-27.6 with 9.7% for the Greens after 105 of 204 polls. The Liberals will win all three by-elections today (two holds and one gain) and once again have a majority of seats with 173 of the 343.

1:11pm After 10 of 204 polls in from NVC, the Liberals lead the Tories by 55.1-28.9 with 11.7% for the Greens. This should be called for the Liberals soon.

12:54pm In NVC, the Liberals lead the Tories by 51.9-32.1 with 11.% for the Greens and 4.5% NDP after 5 of 204 polls in.

12:51pm The CBC has called Liberal wins in CLF and BEY. In CLF, the Liberals lead the Bloc by 49.1-34.1 with 12.9% Tories after 125 of 212 polls. In BEY, the Liberals are leading the NDP by 55.0-25.6 with 16.0% Tories after 115 of 200 polls.

12:19pm The Liberals are looking very likely to gain CLF from the Tories. With 30 of 212 in, they lead the Bloc by 48.7-32.5 with 12.7% for the Tories. In BEY, the Liberals lead the NDP by 50.0-27.2 with 18.1% for the Tories.

12:07pm After 10 of 212 booths from CLF, the Liberals lead the Bloc by 48.3-32.4 with 15.6% for the Tories. In BEY, after 5 of 200, the Liberals lead the NDP by 52.6-26.7 with 11.2% Tories.

12:01pm I’ll be using abbreviations: CLF for Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, BEY for Beaches-East York and NVC for North Vancouver-Capilano. Canada doesn’t have booth-matched results, so we’ll need to wait for a large amount of polling stations before narrow wins can be called. The CBC has results for CLF and BEY on separate pages.

Polls close at 11:30am AEST today for federal Canadian by-elections in Beaches-East York and Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, and at 12 noon for the North Vancouver-Capilano by-election. Canada uses first-past-the-post for national and provincial elections.

At the April 2025 Canadian election, the centre-left Liberals defeated the Conservatives in North Vancouver-Capilano by 59.8-33.7 with 4.2% for the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP). The Liberals defeated the Conservatives in Beaches-East York by 67.8-23.5 with 6.9% for the NDP. August Poliwave polls gave the Liberals a 16.5-point lead over the Conservatives in North Vancouver-Capilano and a 34-point lead in Beaches-East York.

The most interesting by=election is likely to be in the Quebec seat of Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, which the Conservatives won in 2025 with 34.1%. The separatist Quebec Bloc and the Liberals were nearly tied (31.2% Bloc, 31.1% Liberals). Two August polls gave the Liberals 3-5 point leads over the Bloc with the Conservatives a distant third.

The Liberals currently hold 170 of the 343 House of Commons seats including eight vacancies, so they need to win at least two of today’s by-elections to reach the 172 needed for a majority. Six further by-elections are expected in the near future, with two due to resignations of Liberal MPs. The Liberals have recently surged to lead the Conservatives by double-digit margins in Canadian federal polls.

Also of interest in Canada, a referendum in the right-wing province of Alberta will occur on October 19 proposing that Alberta secede from Canada. Even if the referendum passes, it would only direct Alberta to hold a binding referendum at a later date. Three mid to late August polls have “Remain in Canada” leading by 28 to 52 points.

US updates

At the November 3 US midterm elections, all 435 federal House of Representatives seats and 35 of the 100 senators will be up for election. In 2024 elections, Republicans won the House by 220-215 over Democrats and the Senate by 53-47.

In Nate Silver’s midterm election forecast, Democrats currently have a 56% chance to gain control of the Senate and an 85% chance to gain the House (respectively 57% and 86% in my August 12 US article for The Conversation). Democrats lead Republicans by 50.1-42.4 (7.7 points) in the national generic ballot, down from 8.1 points previously. Donald Trump’s net approval is –19.4 (57.7% disapprove, 38.3% approve), up from -20.4.

Democrats are leading in Senate contests by three points or less in Ohio, Texas and Alaska, all states that Trump won by double-digit margins in 2024. This explains why they are narrow favourites to win the Senate.

Alaska uses a jungle primary with the top four candidates qualifying for the general election using preferential voting. At the August 18 Senate primary, Democrat Mary Peltola won 49.5%, Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan 41.4% and another Dan Sullivan 2.5%; he tried to benefit from name confusion. If these results were replicated in November, Peltola would win.

German state election could be first AfD majority

Next Sunday’s Saxony-Anhalt German state election will be held using statewide proportional representation with a 5% threshold. Polls have the populist right AfD surging into the low 40s, far ahead of the conservative governing CDU who are in the low 20s. The Left party is in the low double digits and the centre-left SPD in the high single digits.

Three other parties are at or just below the 5% threshold. If only the AfD, CDU, Left and SPD clear the threshold, the AfD would have a reasonable chance to win its first ever majority in a state election.

Upcoming New Zealand election

The New Zealand election will be held on November 7 using the Mixed Member Proportional system where parties need to win at least 5% of the party vote or a single-member electorate to qualify for a proportional share of the 120 seats.

The current right-wing governing coalition of National, ACT and NZ First is likely to defeat the left-wing coalition of Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori. But the right may be denied a majority owing to the centrist Opportunity having more than 5% in the latest polls. I wrote about this election for the NZ edition of The Conversation last Tuesday.

UK Clacton parliamentary by-election live

Nigel Farage set for a massive win over Count Binface after resigning to recontest Clacton, but Labour takes the lead in national polls. Three Canadian federal by-elections will be held on August 31.

Live Commentary

3:37pm Wikipedia has the percentages. Farage wins by 63.3-26.9 over Binface. Rejoin EU was the next highest with 1.4%. That’s a 17.1-point swing to Farage from the 2024 election result. The Survation poll overstated Farage, but he still won very easily.

3:09pm Results are not fully declared yet, but Farage has received over 22,000 votes to Binface’s nearly 9,500.

2:37pm The Clacton result is expected to be declared in the next hour.

12:27pm Farage won’t be attending the declaration of the result ceremony.

11:59am Farage says “it’s a convincing, overwhelming win” for him at the by-election.

11:29am Official turnout for the by-election was 44.4%, down from 58.7% in 2024.

11am Farage’s scrutineers seem confident that he’ll win more votes than he did in 2024 despite lower overall turnout.

9:44am Friday The BBC’s live blog of the Clacton count is here. Provisional turnout was “around 43%”, down from 58.7% at the 2024 general election.

6:20pm ChrisC in comments says the 34 candidates for Clacton, who all need to be listed on one ballot paper, mean it will take a long time to get a result. The BBC is estimating a declaration time between 2pm and 4pm AEST Friday.

Polls close at 7am AEST Friday for a UK parliamentary by-election in Clacton. The populist right Reform’s leader, Nigel Farage, resigned to recontest on July 7. No other well-known party is contesting this by-election. A total of 34 candidates are standing, breaking the previous record of 26 for a by-election in 2008.

A mid to late July Survation poll, from a small sample of 265, gave Farage a massive 73-20 lead over joke candidate Count Binface with 7% for others. Although this sample size would give a 6% margin of error, Farage will still win easily. In 2024, Farage defeated the Conservatives in Clacton by 46.2-27.9 with 16.2% for Labour.

The Election Maps UK aggregate of national polls has Labour leading with 25.6% (up 2.2 points since my July 31 article), followed by Reform at 24.4% (down 0.1), the Conservatives 20.0% (down 0.2), the Greens 11.0% (down 0.7), the Liberal Democrats 10.6% (down 0.5) and the populist right Restore 3.5% (up 0.8). It’s the first time Labour has led in this aggregate since March 2025 and their biggest lead since January 2025.

Seat projections give Labour 213 of the 650 seats, with Reform on 152, the Conservatives 104, the Lib Dems 76, the Scottish National Party 42 and the Greens 20. A progressive majority could be formed by Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP.

US updates

I had an article for The Conversation on Wednesday on Donald Trump’s ratings, prospects at the November 3 midterm elections and the US economy. In Nate Silver’s midterm forecast model, Democrats have a 56% chance to gain control of the federal Senate and an 86% chance to gain control of the House.

Republicans currently lead in the House of Representatives by 219-212 over Democrats with four vacancies. In mid-June, two Democrats qualified for the California 14 runoff next Tuesday and in late July two Democrats qualified for the Georgia 13 runoff on August 25, so Republicans’ lead will soon shrink to 219-214.

No special election has been scheduled for the remaining two vacancies (one Republican, one Democratic), which both occurred in mid-April. These two seats are likely to remain vacant until the general election.

Three Canadian federal by-elections on August 31

Three Canadian federal by-elections will occur on August 31. As in the UK, Canada uses first-past-the-post for national elections. At the April 2025 Canadian election, the centre-left Liberals defeated the Conservatives in North Vancouver-Capilano by 59.8-33.7 with 4.2% for the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP). The Liberals defeated the Conservatives in Beaches-East York by 67.8-23.5 with 6.9% for the NDP.

The most interesting by=election is likely to be in the Quebec seat of Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, which the Conservatives won in 2025 with 34.1%. The separatist Quebec Bloc and the Liberals were nearly tied (31.2% Bloc, 31.1% Liberals). A mid-July poll gave the Bloc 30%, the Liberals 28% and the Conservatives 26%.

The Liberals currently hold 172 of the 343 House of Commons seats including four vacancies. Even if they lost all three August 31 by-elections, they would retain a bare majority. They should at least win the two seats they currently hold, increasing to 174 seats. Six further by-elections are likely in the near future, with two due to pending resignations of Liberal MPs. The Liberals have recently surged to lead the Conservatives by double-digit margins in Canadian federal polls.

Upcoming elections in Brazil and Israel

The first round of the Brazilian presidential election will be held on October 4, with a runoff on October 25 if nobody wins a first round majority. Incumbent Workers Party president Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former populist right president Jair Bolsonaro, are the two main candidates. Six polls conducted in August of a likely runoff range from a tie to a nine-point Lula lead.

Israel uses national proportional representation with a 3.25% threshold to elect a total of 120 MPs. Most polls ahead of the October 27 election have Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing governing coalition well below the 61 seats needed for a majority, with the big exception the government-aligned Filber poll. However, even if the governing coalition loses its majority, it may be difficult to form an alternative government.

UK Greater Manchester mayoral by-election live

Labour should hold this mayoralty, but how much will their vote drop from Burnham’s 63.4% in 2024? Also, Trump’s US ratings have dropped to a new low.

Live Commentary

12:27pm While Labour won easily, there was a large swing to the right since 2024. Adding the swings for Reform, Restore and the Conservatives has the combined right up 19.5%. Doing the same for Labour, the Greens and the Lib Dems has the combined left down 12.4%.

11:57am It took far too long to get a result in this election. In Australia, it would have been clear within a couple of hours of polls closing that Labour had won easily, based on just the primary votes. In this election, it took more than 24 hours after polls closed to get a result. I have no idea why Greater Manchester didn’t release primary vote results after it was known they would be distributing preferences between Labour and Reform.

Of the total 31.9% that were not Labour or Reform primary votes, 34.2% went to Labour in preferences, 26.6% to Reform and 39.2% exhausted. Pre-election polls understated Labour and overstated the Greens and Conservatives.

8:57am Finally a result! Labour wins the Greater Manchester mayoralty by 66.3-33.7 over Reform, from primary votes of 47.1% Labour (down 16.3 points since the 2024 election), 21.0% Reform (up 13.5), 12.2% Greens (up 5.3), 8.7% Restore (new), 7.7% Conservatives (down 2.7) and 2.8% Lib Dems (down 1.4).

6:56am Saturday Labour and Reform candidates have both qualified for the supplementary vote distribution of preferences, meaning they both had under 50%, and all other candidates have been eliminated. We still don’t know first round vote shares and won’t know anything more until we have a final result! It’s now nearly 10pm UK time; counting will continue until the bitter end.

11:53pm Turnout was 25.1%, down from 32.1% in 2024.

11 pm Four hours since counting began in Greater Manchester, there’s still no results from any of the ten boroughs. There doesn’t seem to even be any reporting of the likely result based on party sources, unlike for Westminster by-elections. This has been frustrating.

7:16pm Here’s the BBC’s live blog on the Greater Manchester count. It appears that counting didn’t start until 7pm AEST (10am UK time).

Polls closed at 7am AEST today for the Greater Manchester mayoral by-election to replace Andy Burnham after his June 18 election to the UK parliament. It will be the biggest UK by-election. Counting will start at about 6pm AEST (9am UK time). There are ten districts within Greater Manchester where votes will be counted.

This by-election will be held using the “supplementary vote” system, where voters get two preferences. Mayoral elections prior to 2024 used this system, but the Conservatives regressed to first-past-the-post for 2024-26 mayoral elections. Labour reverted to the supplementary vote.

In the 2024 mayoral election, Burnham won 63.4%, with the Conservatives a very distant second with 10.4%, followed by 7.6% for an independent, 7.5% the populist right Reform, 6.9% Greens and 4.2% Liberal Democrats. Three early to mid-July polls had Labour at 38-39%, Reform 19-24%, the Greens 14-22%, the Conservatives 8-12%, Restore 7-9% (another populist right party) and the Lib Dems 3-8%. After preferences, Labour defeats Reform by between 62-38 and 66-34.

The Election Maps UK aggregate of national polls has Reform leading with 24.5% (down 1.5 points since my July 16 article before Burnham became PM), followed by Labour at 23.4% (up 2.6), the Conservatives 20.2% (up 0.4), the Greens 11.7% (down 1.3), the Lib Dems 11.1% (down one) and Restore 2.7% (down 0.5). Seat projections give Reform 217 of the 650 seats, with Labour on 135, the Conservatives 102 and the Lib Dems 76. Reform, the Conservatives and right-wing Northern Ireland parties would probably have enough for a majority.

There will be a by-election on August 13 in Clacton after Reform leader Nigel Farage resigned to recontest. No other well-known party will contest this by-election. It’s likely Farage’s main opponent will be joke candidate Count Binface. A total of 34 candidates are standing, breaking the previous record of 26 for a by-election in 2008. In 2024, Farage defeated the Conservatives in Clacton by 46.2-27.9 with 16.2% for Labour.

US: Trump’s ratings drop to new record low

With the resumption of the Iran war, Donald Trump’s ratings have dropped again. In Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, there had been a recovery in Trump’s net approval to -16.4 on July 14 from -20.2 in late May. But now his net approval has fallen to -20.6, a new record low, with 58.8% disapproving and 38.2% approving.

Democrats are winning the generic ballot by 48.3-41.9 over Republicans, a 6.4-point margin. From a peak lead of 7.1 points in late May, Democrats had dropped to a 5.9-point lead on July 22. The current lead should give Democrats control of the House of Representatives but not the Senate at midterm elections this November.

Troy Jackson was nominated by Democrats to replace Graham Platner as their Maine Senate candidate last Saturday after Platner withdrew owing to sexual assault allegations. On paper, Maine should be the easiest Senate gain for Democrats as Harris defeated Trump there by 6.9 points in 2024.

A jungle primary occurred Tuesday in Georgia’s 13^th federal House seat. This special election occurred owing to the death of the incumbent Democrat in late April. At the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris defeated Trump in Georgia 13 by 70.6-28.5, a 42.1-point margin.

At a jungle primary all candidates run on the same ballot paper and the top two, regardless of party, go to a runoff if nobody gets over 50%. Two Democrats, Scott and Blair, advanced to the August 25 runoff with 46.0% and 37.4% respectively, and Democrats overall beat Republicans by 86.5-13.5, a 73.0-point margin. But turnout was pathetic, with just over 20,000 votes compared with over 360,000 in 2024.

Armenian election

Armenia elects its MPs using proportional representation with a 4% threshold for single parties and 8% for coalitions. At the June 7 election, the governing centrist Civil Contract won 64 of the 105 seats (down seven since 2021), the pro-Russia Strong Armenia 29 (new) and the pro-Russia Armenia Alliance 12 (down 17). Civil Contract has governed since 2018.

Andy Burnham to be next UK PM

This article also covers upcoming UK by-elections for Greater Manchester mayor and Clacton and polls for the US midterm elections.

To qualify for a membership ballot, a candidate for UK Labour leadership required 20% of all Labour MPs (81 MPs in the current parliament). Andy Burnham is the only candidate to meet this threshold, winning endorsements from 379 of the 403 Labour MPs (94%). He will be elected unopposed to replace Keir Starmer as Labour leader and PM and will become PM on Monday.

The Election Maps UK aggregate of national polls has the populist right Reform leading with 26.0%, followed by Labour at 20.8%, the Conservatives 19.8%, the Greens 13.0%, the Liberal Democrats 12.1% and the populist right Restore 3.2%. There has been movement since late May against Reform and towards Labour and the Conservatives. Seat projections give Reform 250 of the 650 seats, but they would reach a majority with the support of the Conservatives (87 seats).

The Greater Manchester mayoral by-election to replace Burnham after his June 18 election to the UK parliament will occur on July 30. It will be the biggest UK by-election. This by-election will be held using the “supplementary vote” system, where voters get two preferences. Mayoral elections prior to 2024 used this system, but the Conservatives regressed to first-past-the-post for 2024-26 mayoral elections. Labour reverted to the supplementary vote.

In the 2024 mayoral election, Burnham won 63.4%, with the Conservatives a very distant second with 10.4%, followed by 7.6% for an independent, 7.5% Reform, 6.9% Greens and 4.2% Lib Dems. An early July Find Out Now poll gave Labour 38%, the Greens 22%, Reform 19%, Restore 9% and the Conservatives 8%. After preferences, Labour defeats the Greens 64-36 and Reform 66-34.

On July 7, Reform leader Nigel Farage announced he would resign as Member for Clacton and recontest Clacton at the ensuing August 13 by-election. No other well-known party will contest this by-election. It’s likely Farage’s main opponent will be joke candidate Count Binface. In 2024, Farage defeated the Conservatives in Clacton by 46.2-27.9 with 16.2% for Labour.

US updates

At November midterm elections, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 senators will be up for election. At the 2024 elections, Republicans won the House over Democrats by 220-215 and the Senate by 53-47.

Owing to Republican gerrymandering, Democrats need about a four-point popular vote margin to win the House. The two senators per state rule helps Republicans, and Democrats will need a double-digit popular vote margin to win the Senate on a uniform swing.

In Nate Silver’s aggregate of the generic ballot, Democrats lead Republicans by 48.0-41.9, a 6.1-point margin that is down from a peak of 7.1 points in late May. Donald Trump’s net approval has climbed from a low of -20.2 in late May to -17.0.

Democratic nominee Graham Platner withdrew from the Maine Senate contest last Friday after sexual assault allegations. Democrats have until July 27 to select a replacement candidate. Maine should be the easiest gain for Democrats as Kamala Harris defeated Trump there by 6.9 points in 2024.

Republicans currently control the House by 219-212 with four vacancies. Two Democrats qualified for the August 18 runoff in California 14 after a June 16 jungle primary. After the death of the Democratic incumbent in late April, a jungle primary for Georgia 13 will occur on July 28 with a runoff if needed on August 25. No special for the two other vacancies that occurred in April (one Democrat, one Republican) has yet been scheduled.

Other elections

The 56 Cypriot seats are elected by proportional representation in six multi-member electorates. At the May 24 election, the conservative DISY won 17 seats (steady since 2021), the communist AKEL 15 (steady), the populist right ELAM eight (up four) and the centrist DIKO eight (down one). The DISY retained government.

Malta has 13 five-member seats using proportional representation with preferences, with extra seats added to ensure overall proportionality. At the May 30 election, Labour defeated the conservative Nationalists by 42 seats to 37, winning its fourth successive term (44-35 to Labour in 2022). Malta retains a strong two-party system, with Labour defeating the Nationalists on vote shares by 51.8-44.7.

In final results of the June 7 Peruvian presidential runoff election, right-winger Fujimori defeated left-winger Sánchez by 50.13-49.87. This was Fujimori’s first win after three consecutive runoff losses.

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