Adrian Beaumont – The Poll Bludger

US presidential election minus four weeks

Bad polls for Kamala Harris in Wisconsin and Michigan. Also covered: the UK Conservative leadership election, the far-right wins the most seats in Austria and Japan’s October 27 election.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The US presidential election is on November 5. In Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Kamala Harris has a 49.3-46.1 lead over Donald Trump (49.3-46.2 in my previous US election article for The Conversation on Monday). In presidential elections, the Electoral College is decisive, not the national popular vote. Harris has at least a one-point lead in enough states to win the Electoral College by a 276-262 margin.

The New York Times released polls from the highly regarded Siena on Tuesday, which had good and bad news for Harris. Siena’s national poll gave Harris a 49-46 lead, her best position in this poll. But Trump led by a thumping 55-41 in Florida, which used to be a swing state. This caused Silver’s Florida aggregate to move two points in Trump’s favour, and he now leads by 5.5 points there.

On Wednesday, Quinnipiac polls of Wisconsin and Michigan gave Trump 2-3 point leads, though Harris had a three-point lead in Pennsylvania. Silver’s model now gives Harris a 53.5% chance to win the Electoral College, down from 56% on Monday. There’s a 23% chance that Harris wins the popular vote, but loses the Electoral College. The FiveThirtyEight model is now very close to Silver, with Harris a 53% chance to win.

Two right-wing candidates to contest UK Conservative leadership

As in previous UK Conservative leadership elections, the final two candidates are selected by Conservative MPs, with Conservative party members to choose between these final candidates. At Wednesday’s final round of MPs’ votes, the right-wing Kemi Badenoch won 42 of the 120 votes, the right-wing Robert Jenrick 41 and the more centrist James Cleverly 37.

Cleverly had easily won the previous round of MPs’ votes on Tuesday with 39 votes, followed by Jenrick on 31 and Badenoch on 30. It’s likely that a tactical voting blunder caused him to finish third and be eliminated, with some of his supporters voting for Jenrick as they thought Cleverly had a better chance to beat Jenrick than Badenoch in the members’ vote.

Members will now decide between Badenoch and Jenrick by an online vote, with the final result to be announced November 2. A late September YouGov poll of Conservative members gave Badenoch a 41-38 lead over Jenrick.

Labour and PM Keir Starmer’s dreadful start to the term continues, with a recent More in Common poll giving Labour just a 29-28 lead over the Conservatives with 19% for Reform and 11% for the Liberal Democrats, although three other early October polls gave Labour 5-8 point leads. The latest two polls that have asked about Starmer’s ratings have him at net -30 (Opinium) and net -36 (YouGov).

Far-right wins most seats in Austria

Austria uses proportional representation with a 4% threshold to elect its 183 seats. At the September 29 election, the far-right FPÖ won 57 seats (up 26 since the 2019 election), the conservative ÖVP 51 seats (down 20), the centre-left SPÖ 41 (up one), the liberal NEOS 18 (up three) and the Greens 16 (down ten).

The FPÖ had its best result in an Austrian election and it was the first time since World War Two that a far-right party has won the most seats. However, the FPÖ is well short of the 92 seats needed for a majority. The ÖVP and the Greens had formed a coalition government after the 2019 election. A coalition between the ÖVP and SPÖ is the only way to keep the FPÖ out of government.

Japanese election: October 27

The conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has formed government after every Japanese election since 1955 except after the 2009 election. Of the 465 lower house seats, 289 are elected by first-past-the-post, while the remaining 176 are elected using proportional representation in 11 multi-member electorates.

This election is being held a year early after Shigeru Ishiba replaced Fumio Kishida as LDP leader and PM on September 27 and called an early election. Polls indicate the LDP is far ahead of their nearest party rival, the centre-left Constitutional Democrats, but there’s a large “no party” vote. The LDP should easily win yet another election.

US presidential election minus six weeks

Kamala Harris a slight favourite to win in Nate Silver’s model. Also covered: two Canadian by-elections, a dreadful poll for Keir Starmer, France’s new Prime Minister, a German state election and a socialist wins in Sri Lanka.

The US presidential election is on November 5. In Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Kamala Harris has a 49.0-46.3 lead over Donald Trump (49.2-46.2 in my previous US election article for The Conversation on Monday). In presidential elections, the Electoral College is decisive, not the national popular vote. Harris has at least a one-point lead in enough states to win the Electoral College by a 276-262 margin.

In Silver’s model, Harris has a 55% chance to win the Electoral College, up from 54% on Monday. She has been the favourite since last Friday after falling to a 35% win probability on September 9. Previously there had been a large gap between Silver’s and FiveThirtyEight’s models, with Harris favoured more at FiveThirtyEight. But this gap has nearly vanished, with Harris now a 56% win probability at FiveThirtyEight.

Monday’s Conversation article also covered elections for the US House of Representatives and Senate that will be held concurrently with the presidential election. If Harris wins, Democrats have a good chance to regain control of the House, but Republicans are likely to gain Senate control. Democrats are defending seats in three states Trump won easily in 2016 and 2020 and the Senate system favours Republicans owing to two senators per state.

Canada looking bleak for Liberals

Two Canadian federal by-elections occurred on September 16. In LaSalle-Émard-Verdun in Quebec, 91 candidates stood as a protest against first-past-the-post, with most receiving very few votes. The left-wing separatist Quebec Bloc gained from the centre-left Liberals, winning by 28.0-27.2 with 26.1% for the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) and 11.6% for the Conservatives. At the 2021 federal election, results in this seat were 42.9% Liberal, 22.1% Quebec Bloc, 19.4% NDP and 7.5% Conservatives.

At the by-election in Elmwood-Transcona in Manitoba, the NDP retained against the Conservatives, but by a much reduced margin. The NDP defeated the Conservatives by 48.1-44.1 with 4.8% for the Liberals. In 2021, the NDP won this seat by 49.7-28.1 with 14.7% for the Liberals.

The next Canadian federal election is due by October 2025. FPTP will be used to elect all 343 seats, with 172 needed for a majority. The CBC poll tracker gives the Conservatives 42.9%, the Liberals 24.1%, the NDP 17.6% and the Quebec Bloc 7.8% (33.5% in Quebec). This would be a Conservative landslide with the seat projection giving them 218 seats, the Liberals 63, the Quebec Bloc 39 and the NDP 21. The Liberals have governed since they won the October 2015 election, though they were reduced to a minority government after the 2019 election.

UK, France, Germany and Sri Lanka

In my previous article in early September, I covered the lack of a honeymoon for UK Labour and PM Keir Starmer after winning the July 4 general election. In an Opinium poll taken last week, Starmer’s net approval had plunged 45 points since the first post-election Opinium poll in mid-July. His net approval is now -26, one point lower than for former Conservative PM Rishi Sunak.

At snap French parliamentary elections in early July, the left-wing NFP alliance won 180 of the 577 seats, President Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble 159, the far-right National Rally and allies 142 and the conservative Republicans 39. On September 5, Macron appointed the conservative Michel Barnier as his new PM. Last Saturday, Barnier and Macron announced a new cabinet composed of mostly conservative ministers. The NFP is hostile to the new government, so its survival depends on National Rally abstaining on confidence motions.

I previously covered September 1 German state elections in Thuringia and Saxony where the far-right AfD made gains. At last Sunday’s state election in Brandenburg, the centre-left SPD won 32 of the 88 seats (up seven since 2019), the AfD 30 (up seven), the economically left but socially conservative BSW 14 (new) and the conservative CDU 12 (down three). The Greens and Left had won ten seats each in 2019, but were wiped out as neither cleared the 5% threshold.

At last Saturday’s Sri Lankan presidential election, the socialist candidate of the National People’s Power party defeated the establishment candidate by 55.9-44.1 after preferences. The NPP had won just 3.2% in 2019.

US presidential election minus nine weeks

Kamala Harris’ win probability dropping in Nate Silver’s model. Also covered: UK polls since the election, still no new PM in France after the election and two German state elections.

The US presidential election is on November 5. In Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Kamala Harris has a 48.9-45.5 lead over Donald Trump. In my article for The Conversation last Friday, Harris led by 48.8-45.0. The next important US event is the debate between Harris and Trump next Tuesday (Wednesday at 11am AEST).

It is the Electoral College, not the national popular vote, that is decisive in presidential elections. The Electoral College is expected to be biased to Trump relative to the popular vote, with Harris needing at least a two-point popular vote win in Silver’s model to be the Electoral College favourite.

Harris’ probability of winning the Electoral College in Silver’s model has dropped from 47% last Friday to 42%, with Trump now the favourite at a 58% chance to win. Trump’s win probability has increased every day in this model since August 27, and he’s now at his highest win probability since July 30. Current polling in the most important swing state (Pennsylvania, with 19 electoral votes) only gives Harris a one-point lead, and the model expects further declines for Harris as her convention bounce fades.

UK: no honeymoon for Starmer and Labour after election

At the July 4 UK general election, Labour won a thumping victory with 411 of the 650 House of Commons seats, to 121 Conservatives and 72 Liberal Democrats. This occurred despite Labour winning just 33.7% of the vote, to 23.7% for the Conservatives, 14.3% Reform (but only five seats), 12.2% Lib Dems and 6.7% Greens (four seats).

A new government would normally expect a polling honeymoon, but not this one. There haven’t been many voting intention polls since the election, but a late August BMG poll gave Labour just a 30-26 over the Conservatives with 19% for Reform. A late August More in Common poll gave PM Keir Starmer a net -16 approval rating, while a mid-August Opinium poll had Starmer at -6 after their first poll after the election gave him a +18 net approval. I believe the economic messages from Labour that there’s more pain ahead for the UK are backfiring.

France: still no PM two months after election

The French president (Emmanuel Macron) is the most important French politician, but the system still requires a PM who has the confidence of the lower house of parliament. At snap parliamentary elections that Macron called for June 30 and July 7, the left-wing NFP alliance won 180 of the 577 seats, Macron’s Ensemble 159, the far-right National Rally and allies 142 and the conservative Republicans 39.

While without a majority before the election, Ensemble was in a far better position with 245 seats. On July 23, the NFP agreed on a PM candidate, Lucie Castets, but Macron has no interest in appointing her. A PM needs to be appointed by October 1, the deadline to submit a draft 2025 budget.

Far-right gains at two German state elections

German state elections occurred in Thuringia and Saxony last Sunday. Proportional representation with a 5% threshold was used. In Thuringia, the far-right AfD won 32 of the 88 seats (up ten since 2019), the conservative CDU 23 (up two), the economically left but socially conservative BSW 15 (new), the Left 12 (down 17) and the centre-left SPD six (down two). The Greens and pro-business FDP fell below the 5% threshold and were wiped out.

In Saxony, the CDU won 42 of the 120 seats (down three), the AfD 41 (up three), the BSW 15 (new), the SPD nine (down one), the Greens six (down six) and the Left six (down eight). In Thuringia, the AfD is well short of the 45 seats needed for a majority, and the most likely outcome is a non-AfD government. A year out from the next federal German election, the polls are grim for the current governing coalition of the SPD, Greens and FDP.

French parliamentary election runoffs live

The far-right National Rally is unlikely to win a majority. The UK election was the most disproportionate in modern history.

Live Commentary

10:37am Tuesday The composition of the 182 NFP members are 74 from the far-left LFI, 59 from the centre-left Socialists, 28 Greens, nine Communists and 12 others. Adding Ensemble’s 168 to NFP, but subtracting LFI and the Communists gives 267 seats, still 22 short of a majority.

12pm It’s been a long stretch of following international elections for me, including the UK, French, Indian and European parliament elections. Unless Joe Biden withdraws from the US presidential contest, I will next post in early August.

10:57am Wikipedia’s figures are 180 of 577 seats for the NFP (up 49 since 2022), 159 Ensemble (down 86), 142 RN and allies (up 53), 39 Republicans (down 25), 27 other righties (up 17), 12 other lefties (down nine), six other centrists (up two) and nine regionalists (down one). Adding others, 192 NFP (up 40), 165 Ensemble (down 84), 142 RN (up 53) and 66 Republicans (down eight). A majority requires 289 seats, so parliament is well hung.

9:55am Official runoff round results have been released. Le Monde has the NFP on 182 of the 577 seats, Ensemble 168, RN 143, the Republicans 45, other righties 15, other lefties 13, other centrists six and regionalists four. Adding the others would give the NFP 195 seats, Ensemble 174, RN 143 and the Republicans 60. To pass legislation, Macron’s Ensemble will need either the NFP or RN to also be in favour. In the previous parliament, he had an option of cooperating with the Republicans.

8:42am With six seats left, 179 NFP, 165 Ensemble, 143 RN and 45 Republicans.

8:17am With 16 seats left, 177 NFP, 160 Ensemble, 141 RN and 45 Republicans.

7:48am As expected, the NFP and Ensemble are surging as the final seats are finalised. With 28 seats left, it’s 174 NFP, 153 Ensemble, 140 RN and 45 Republicans.

7:40am Large first round leads for RN candidates are being overturned in the runoffs. In Sarthe’s fourth, the NFP defeated the RN by 50.2-49.8. First round results were 39.3% RN, 25.94% NFP and 25.88% Ensemble. The Ensemble candidate withdrew.

7:28am With 42 seats left, the NFP has 165 seats, Ensemble 149, RN 140 and the Republicans 44.

7:09am With 78 seats remaining, Ensemble takes second spot from RN. Current totals are 146 NFP, 140 Ensemble, 137 RN and 40 Republicans.

7:05am Le Monde has maps of the results so far. With 95 seats still to be finalised, the NFP has won 140 seats, the RN 135, Ensemble 133, the conservative Republicans 38, other righties 15, other lefties ten, other centrists six and regionalists four. The remaining seats, mostly from cities, should heavily favour the NFP and Ensemble.

6:57am The Ifop projection of components of the NFP alliance has the far-left LFI with 82-86 seats, the Communists at 9-10, the centre-left Socialists at 62-67 and the Greens at 34-35. There are also 8=10 other lefties.

6:28am Monday A big shock, with current projections, which are partly based on votes counted so far, putting the left-wing NFP in first place, followed by Macron’s Ensemble, and the far-right RN in third. An Ipsos projection has the NFP at 171-187 seats, Ensemble at 152-163 and RN at 134-152. Ifop has NFP at 188-199, Ensemble 164-169 and RN 135-139.

6:30pm Wikipedia has the results of 14 seat runoffs, presumably from French territories outside France that voted Saturday. Regionalists won five of these seats, the NFP three, other lefties three, other righties two and other centrists one. Adding the 76 seats decided in the first round with vote majorities, the total out of 90 seats decided is 38 RN and allies, 35 NFP, five Republicans and other righties, five regionalists, three other lefties and three Ensemble and other centrists. So 487 seats remain to be decided.

The 577 French lower house seats are elected by a two-round single-member system. The runoffs are today, with polls outside the cities closing at 3am AEST Monday. All polls are closed by 4am AEST.

In final results of last Sunday’s first round, the far-right National Rally (RN) and allies won 33.2%, the left-wing alliance of four parties (NFP) 28.1%, President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Ensemble 21.3% and the conservative Republicans and other right-wing candidates 10.2%.

Turnout was high at 66.7% of registered voters. This meant 76 seats were filled, where the winner had at least 50% of valid votes and at least 25% of registered votes. It also meant that many third candidates cleared the 12.5% of registered voters required to advance. On these results, 306 seats would go to three-way runoffs and five to four-way runoffs.

In today’s runoffs, first past the post will be used. To avoid splitting the anti-RN vote, there have been a large number of candidate withdrawals. Now there are only 89 three-way runoffs and two four-way runoffs remaining after the candidate registration deadline on Tuesday. Europe Elects said there are 154 NFP vs RN contests, 135 Ensemble vs RN, 50 Republicans vs RN, 83 are three or four-way runoffs involving NFP, RN and either Ensemble or the Republicans, and 37 seats don’t have RN candidates.

Polls released since Tuesday’s registration deadline give RN and allies 170-240 seats, the NFP 165-203 seats, Ensemble 95-160 and the Republicans 25-63. If today’s results reflect the polls, RN and allies will be far short of the 289 seats needed for a majority, and there’s some chance that the NFP wins more seats than RN. Polls conducted before the first round had RN much closer to a majority.

In an Ifop poll, centre-left and Ensemble candidates led RN by 53-47, while the far-left tied at 50-50 with RN and the Republicans led RN by 56-44. An OpinionWay poll had RN beating NFP by 53-47 but losing to Ensemble 52-48. In a three-way race, NFP had 36%, Ensemble 34% and RN 30%.

UK election most disproportionate in modern history

In Thursday’s UK election, Labour won 411 of the 650 seats, the Conservatives 121, the Liberal Democrats 72, the Scottish National Party nine, independents six, Reform five and the Greens four. Labour won 63.2% of seats on 33.7% of votes, the Conservatives 18.6% on 23.7%, the Lib Dems 11.1% on 12.2%, Reform 0.8% on 14.3% and the Greens 0.6% on 6.7%. Europe Elects said it was the most disproportional UK election in modern history. Large swings against Labour in their safe seats helped their vote efficiency, even though they lost a few seats to pro-Gaza independents.

In Scotland Labour won 37 of the 57 seats, to just nine for the SNP, on vote shares of 35.3% Labour and 30.0% SNP. In 2019, the SNP had won 48 of the 59 Scottish seats, to just one for Labour, on shares of 45.0% SNP and 18,6% Labour.

Other international electoral developments

More than seven months after the November 22 election, a new Dutch government was sworn in last Tuesday. The new government includes the far-right PVV (37 of the 150 seats), the conservative VVD (24 seats), the Christian democratic NSC (20 seats) and the agrarian right-wing BBB (seven seats). These four parties combined have 88 seats, well above the 76 needed for a majority. This is the first Dutch government to include the PVV and has been described as the most right-wing in recent history.

The Iranian presidential election was held in two rounds, on June 28 and Friday, to replace former right-wing president Ebrahim Raisi, who was killed in a helicopter crash. The reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian defeated the right-wing Saeed Jalili in the runoff by a 54.8-45.2 margin. In Iran, the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei holds the most power, and presidential candidates need to be vetted by the religious Guardian Council.

In early May the Solomon Islands parliament elected the China-friendly foreign minister, Jeremiah Manele, of the previous pro-China PM, Manasseh Sogavare, as the new PM. Sogavare had withdrawn from the contest to be PM and backed Manele, after he failed to win a majority in an April election.

UK general election live

A small recovery for the Conservatives, but a Labour landslide still imminent. Also covered: the French election and US post-debate polls.

Live Commentary

11:24am There’s still one seat left to declare, a large rural Scottish seat that’s expected to go to the Lib Dems. That final seat is expected to declare at 7:30pm AEST today. I will post final results from the UK and Scotland after that declaration. Tomorrow I will have a post on the French parliamentary election runoffs.

8:01am Saturday Northern Ireland’s 18 seats split seven Sinn Fein (steady since 2019), five Democratic Unionists (down three), two Social Democratic and Labour (steady), one Alliance (steady), one Ulster Unionist (up one), one Traditional Unionist (up one) and one independent (up one). Vote shares were 27% SF (up 4), 22% DUP (down 9), 11% SDLP (down 4), 15% Alliance (down 2), 12% UUP (up 0.5) and 6% TUV (new).

6:39pm I’ve done an article for The Conversation on the UK results. The key takeaway is that, while Labour won a seat landslide, their vote share of 33.8% was only ten points ahead of the Tories, when final polls had them 18 points up, and it trailed the combined Tory and Reform vote share (38.0%). This vote share is the lowest for any party that has won a majority in the UK.

4:31pm The Tories have lost four seats previously held by their PMs tonight, two to Labour and two to the Lib Dems. The Lib Dems won Theresa May’s old seat of Maidenhead and David Cameron’s Witney, while Labour won Boris Johnson’s Uxbridge as well as defeating Truss.

4:14pm Liz Truss is out of parliament after being defeated by 27-25 by Labour in her South-West Norfolk seat, with 23% Reform and 14% for an independent. Labour’s vote was up 8 with Truss down 43.

3:52pm The Greens gain North Herefordshire from the Tories by 43-32, on a 34-point swing to the Greens and a 31-point slump for the Tories. The Greens easily held their one existing seat of Brighton Pavilion.

3:02pm The Greens gain Waveney Valley from the Tories by 42-30, a 32% swing to the Greens and a 32% drop for the Tories. Reform won 16% (new) and Labour 9% (down 9 owing to tactical voting).

2:27pm Labour GAINS North-East Somerset from Tory Jacob Rees-Mogg, a fervent supporter of Boris Johnson. 41% Labour (up 14), 30% Tories (down 25) and 15% Reform (new).

2:11pm After 479 of 650, Labour has WON an overall majority, with 333 seats (up 155). The Tories have 72 (down 171), the Lib Dems 46 (up 39), Reform four (up four), the SNP four (down 34), independents four (up four) and Plaid four (up two). Vote share changes are Labour up 1.4, Tories down 19.5, Lib Dems up 0.3, Reform up 12 and Greens up 4.

1:32pm After 30 of 57 Scottish seats, 23 Labour (up 22), four SNP (down 23), two Lib Dems (up one) and one Tory (steady). Vote share changes are Labour up 18.5 and SNP down 15.5.

1:27pm After 332 of 650 seats (more than halfway through now), 245 Labour (up 111), 42 Tories (down 122), 27 Lib Dems (up 23), four Reform (up four), four SNP (down 21) and three Plaid (up two). Vote share changes are Labour up 1.2, Tories down 19.5, Lib Dems none, Reform up 12.5 and Greens up 4.2.

1:20pm The Greens crushed Labour in Bristol Central by 57-33, a 31-point gain for the Greens and a 26-point slump for Labour.

1:15pm Something went wrong for Labour in Leicester. They lost Leicester East to the Tories and now Leicester South to an independent, who defeated Labour by 35-33, a 35% drop for Labour.

1:09pm After 266 of 650 seats, 196 Labour (up 85), 32 Tories (down 99), 23 Lib Dems (up 20), four SNP (down 14), three Reform (up three), two Plaid (up two) and one Green (up one). Vote share changes are Labour up 1.0, Tories down 20, Lib Dems no change, Reform up 13 and Greens up four.

1:02pm Reform leader Nigel Farage easily wins Clacton, defeating the Tories by 46-28 with 16% for Labour. Former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn easily wins Islington North as an independent, defeating Labour by 49-34. A pre-election seat poll had Corbyn trailing by 43-29.

12:31pm After 141 of 650 seats, 110 Labour (up 41), 14 Tories (down 49), 14 Lib Dems (up 11), one Reform (up one), one SNP (down five) and one Plaid (up one). Vote share changes are Labour up 0.7, Tories down 19, Lib Dems down 0.1, Reform up 12.5 and Greens up 4.

12:24pm The Tories have GAINED Leicester East from Labour, very much against the trend. 31% Tories (down 7), 22% Labour (down 29!), 13.5% Lib Dem (up 8), 12% independent (new) and 8% One Leicester (new). I believe Labour’s crash here is probably due to the Muslim vote.

12:11pm Labour has won all three seats declared so far in Scotland, gaining all three from the SNP. Labour’s Scottish vote is up 23 points, while the SNP is down 17.

12:05pm After 84 of 650 seats, Labour 73 (up 29), Tories six (down 31), Lib Dems four (up three) and Reform one (up one). Vote share changes are Labour up 1.2, Tories down 20, Lib Dems down 0.4, Reform up 13 and Greens up four.

11:54am The first Scottish seat (Kilmarnock & Loudoun) is a Labour gain from the SNP. 45% Labour (up 26), 33% SNP (down 18), 8% Tories (down 16) and 8% Reform (new).

11:46am Labour lost Hartlepool to the Tories at a by-election in May 2021 when Boris Johnson was popular, but have won it easily at this election. Earlier this year, Labour lost Rochdale at a by-election to George Galloway after their candidate was disendorsed. In the rematch, Labour defeated Galloway by 33-29 with 17% for Reform and 11% Tories.

11:27am Reform WINS their first seat in Ashfield, gaining from the Tories. 43% Reform (up 38), 29% Labour (up three), 16% independent (down 11) and an embarrassing 4th place for the Tories in a seat they held with just 8% (down 31!).

11:14am After 22 of 650 seats, Labour 19 (up seven), Lib Dems two (up two) and Tories just one (down nine). Vote share changes based on these seats’ votes in 2019 are Labour up two, Lib Dems up 0.4, Tories down 22, Reform up 14 and Greens up four.

11:09am Labour GAINS Bridgend in Wales from the Tories. 40% Labour (up one), 19% Reform (up 14), 16% Tories (down 28!), 9% Plaid (up four) and 8% for an independent.

11:05am Labour GAINS Nuneaton from the Tories. 37% Labour (up five), 28.5% Tories (down 32!) and 22% Reform (new).

10:41am Lib Dems GAIN Harrogate & Knaresborough from Tories. 46% Lib Dem (up 10), 30% Tories (down 22), 11% Reform (new) and 8% Labour (down two).

9:39am Labour GAINS Swindon South from the Tories. Labour 48% (up 8), Tories 27% (down 25) and Reform 14% (new).

8:42am It’s a similar story in Blyth & Ashington, Labour up a little, Reform surges and the Tories plunge.

8:37am Labour HOLDS Houghton & Sunderland South, the first seat to be declared. Labour 47% (up 7), Reform 29% (up 13) and Tories 14% (down 19). Turnout was 51% (down six).

7:09am Friday The Exit Poll has Labour on 410 of the 650 seats, the Tories on 131, the Lib Dems 61, Reform 13, the SNP 10, Plaid Cymru (Welsh Nationalists) four and the Greens two. That’s better for the Tories and Reform than expected from pre-election polls, a little worse for Labour and a lot worse for the SNP.

8:45pm I prefer traditional polls, but William has asked me to comment on what the Multilevel Regression with Poststratification (MRP) polls are saying. These have massive sample sizes, with the YouGov MRP the largest sample at almost 48,000. The YouGov MRP agrees well with the ElectionMapsUK forecast below, with 431 Labour seats, 102 Conservatives, 72 Lib Dems and 18 SNP. The Survation MRP is the most bearish for the Conservatives, with just 64 Conservatives, to 484 for Labour and 61 Lib Dems. Fieldwork periods for the MRP polls were at least a week, so they wouldn’t pick up late movement.

The UK general election is today, with polls closing at 7am AEST Friday. The Guardian’s election night guide says The Exit Poll will be released once polls close. The exit poll only gives party seat numbers, not vote shares. In past elections, for example 2015 and 2017, the exit poll has predicted seat numbers at odds with pre-election polls. In these cases, the exit poll has been more accurate.

In the UK, votes are not counted at polling places but transported to a counting location within each seat before they are counted. All times listed here are AEST. The Guardian expects only eight of the 650 House of Commons seats to be declared by 10am Friday. By 12pm, about 85 seats will be in. The big rush of results will come between 12pm and 2pm, with 443 declarations, and the remaining seats should be declared by 4pm with “perhaps a few exceptions”.

The final UK national poll aggregate from ElectionMapsUK has Labour at 39.3%, the Conservatives at 21.4%, the far-right Reform at 16.4%, the Liberal Democrats at 11.0% and the Greens at 6.4%. Polls in the final few days have suggested a small recovery for the Conservatives, with Labour’s lead dropping below 20 points. Individual poll results have been between Labour leads of 13 and 20 points over the Conservatives.

With first past the post, these vote shares result in a Labour landslide. The ElectionMapsUK seat forecast is for Labour to win 436 of the 650 seats, the Conservatives 101, the Lib Dems 66, the Scottish National Party 17, the Greens four and Reform three. While the Conservatives have improved to just above 100 seats, that’s far below the 165 they won at their previous nadir in 1997.

While Labour has led the SNP by single-digit margins in most Scottish polls since March, the final Savanta poll gave the SNP a 34-31 lead over Labour. If true, the SNP could limit its losses after getting 48 of 59 Scottish seats in 2019 to just one for Labour. Seat polls for the Greens have them gaining three seats. In other UK election news, the right-wing tabloid The Sun has endorsed Labour.

French election: candidate withdrawals may block far-right RN from majority

The 577 French lower house seats are elected by a two-round single-member system. In final results of Sunday’s first round, the far-right National Rally (RN) and allies won 33.2%, the left-wing alliance of four parties (NFP) 28.1%, President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Ensemble 21.3% and the conservative Republicans and other right-wing candidates 10.2%.

In this Sunday’s runoffs, FPTP will be used. To avoid splitting the anti-RN vote, there have been a large number of candidate withdrawals. Now there are only 89 three-way runoffs and two four-way runoffs remaining after the candidate registration deadline on Tuesday.

A Harris poll conducted Tuesday and Wednesday gave RN and allies 190-220 seats (240-305 in the Harris poll on first-round election day), the NFP 159-183 seats (140-190) and Ensemble 110-135 (70-120). If this occurs, RN and allies will be well short of the 289 seats needed for a majority.

Biden still dropping in US polls

The US election is on November 5. Before last Thursday’s debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, Biden was nearly tied with Trump in FiveThirtyEight’s national poll aggregate (down by only 0.1 point). Biden has now fallen 2.3 points behind, trailing Trump by 42.1-39.8 with 9.7% for Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

The highly-regarded Siena poll for The New York Times of likely voters gave Trump a five-point lead with third party candidates and a six-point lead without, a 2-3 point movement to Trump since Siena’s pre-debate poll. State polls have not yet caught up to the debate. There’s increasing speculation that Biden may withdraw from the contest. If this occurs, a new candidate will be selected by Democrats at their August 19-22 convention.

UK general election minus three days

Labour remains about 20 points ahead in UK polls. Also covered: the first round results of France’s parliamentary elections and US polls after the debate.

The UK general election is on Thursday. The Electoral Calculus site has Labour on 40.4% in its aggregate of national polls (up 0.9 since last Monday’s article), the Conservatives on 21.2% (up 1.3), the far-right Reform on 14.9% (down 2.9), the Liberal Democrats on 11.7% (down 0.1) and the Greens on 5.8%. Reform leader Nigel Farage’s pro-Russia comments on the Ukraine war ten days ago may have deflated Reform’s surge.

Owing to first past the post, Labour would win a massive landslide if these vote shares are replicated Thursday. Electoral Calculus gives them 465 of the 650 House of Commons seats, with the Lib Dems ahead of the Conservatives by 71 to 65 seats. The Scottish National Party would win 18 seats, Reform six and the Greens three.

Individual poll results range from Labour leads over the Conservatives from 15 to 25 points, though two have Reform ahead of the Conservatives in second place. The People Polling poll that had Reform 11 points behind Labour last week this week gave Labour 40% (up five), Reform 21% (down three) and the Conservatives 15% (steady).

In Scotland, Labour continues to lead the SNP by single-digit margins, and should make a large seat gain after winning just one of 59 Scottish seats in 2019. A recent seat poll of former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s Islington North, which Corbyn is contesting as an independent, has Labour’s candidate leading Corbyn by 43-29.

PM Rishi Sunak’s net favourablility in a YouGov poll conducted last week was -57, his lowest as PM. He has fallen from -42 in late May. Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net favourability was -20; it has been between -12 and -25 this year. The Conservative party’s net favourability was -56, while Labour’s was -12.

I covered the UK, US and French elections for The Conversation last Thursday (before the US debate). This has when to expect UK results on Friday AEST. Under Boris Johnson’s leadership, the Conservatives led in the polls until late 2021, and did not crash into their current position until after he was ousted.

Far-right RN underperforms in French first round results

The 577 French lower house seats are elected by a two-round single-member system. In Sunday’s first round, the far-right National Rally (RN) and allies won 32.4%, the left-wing alliance of four parties (NFP) 28.7%, President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Ensemble 21.6% and the conservative Republicans and other right-wing candidates 10.1%. Pre-election polls had RN in the mid to high 30s.

Turnout was high at 66.9% of registered voters. This meant 77 seats have been filled, where the winner had at least 50% of valid votes and at least 25% of registered votes. It also means that many third candidates cleared the 12.5% of registered voters required to advance. On these results, 307 seats will go to three-way runoffs and six to four-way runoffs.

In the runoffs next Sunday, FPTP will be used, but candidates can withdraw prior to the runoffs, for example to create a two-candidate contest to block RN. Candidates need to register for the runoffs by Tuesday.

Biden’s position worsens after debate

The US election will be held on November 5. In Thursday’s Conversation article, which was published the day before the debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump on Friday AEST, Biden was only 0.1 point behind Trump in FiveThirtyEight’s national poll aggregate. Better economic data and Trump’s conviction probably explain Biden’s gains.

Three days after the debate, Biden trails Trump by 41.7-40.4 with 9,1% for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Biden’s position is likely to worsen further as more post-debate polls come in. In a YouGov poll for CBS News, by 72-28 voters thought Biden should not be running for president (63-37 in February). By 72-29, they thought he does not have the mental health to be president (65-35 three weeks ago).

UK general election minus ten days

Labour remains over 20 points ahead with Reform surging. Also covered: the French parliamentary elections on June 30 and July 7, the US election and the final European parliament results.

The UK general election will be held on July 4. The Guardian’s aggregate of national polls has Labour on 41.9% (down 1.0 since last Monday’s article), the Conservatives on 21.4% (down 0.9), the far-right Reform on 15.0% (up 1.4), the Liberal Democrats on 10.9% (up 0.6) and the Greens on 5.7% (steady).

Most individual polls have Reform between 16% and 19%, within a few points of overtaking the Conservatives for second place. The most spectacular poll in the last week was a People Polling poll that had Labour on 35%, Reform on 24% and the Conservatives on 15%. While other polls have had Reform just ahead or tied with the Conservatives, no other poll has been close to People Polling’s numbers.

The Electoral Calculus site has lower vote shares for Labour and the Conservatives than The Guardian (39.5% Labour, 19.9% Conservative) and higher Reform and Lib Dem votes (17.8% Reform, 11.6% Lib Dems). But with first past the post, the forecast is for Labour to win 457 of the 650 House of Commons seats, to 76 for the Conservatives, 66 for the Lib Dems, 22 for the Scottish National Party, just three for Reform and two for the Greens.

Labour remains ahead of the SNP in Scottish polls, which represents a big swing to Labour and against the SNP since the 2019 election in Scotland. If replicated at the election, Labour will make large seat gains in Scotland, where they won just one of 59 seats in 2019.

There are two recent seat polls of Clacton, which Reform leader Nigel Farage is contesting. Both polls have Farage easily winning, with a 15-point lead in Survation and a 27-point lead in JL Partners. The Conservatives won 71.9% in Clacton in 2019, but are in the 20s in these two polls, with Farage in the 40s. A seat poll in PM Rishi Sunak’s seat has Sunak leading Labour by 39-28 with 18% for Reform, so Sunak should hold his seat.

French election: Far-right National Rally likely to win most seats

The French parliamentary election will be held on June 30 (first round) and July 7 (runoffs). In first round polls, the far-right National Rally (RN) and its allies are in the mid-30s, the left-wing alliance of four parties (NFP) is in the high-20s, President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Ensemble is just over 20% and the conservative Republicans are on about 8%.

This means that Ensemble are likely to be eliminated from the runoffs in the large majority of the 577 seats, which will be RN vs NFP contests. Seat forecasts suggest RN will win about 250 seats, short of the 289 needed for a majority. A poll of hypothetical runoff contests had RN beating NFP by 41-33 but losing to Ensemble by 40-37, implying that if Ensemble could make the final two, RN would do much worse.

US: Biden closes on Trump ahead of debate

The US general election will be held on November 5. There will be a debate hosted by CNN between Joe Biden and Donald Trump this Thursday (Friday at 11am AEST). Biden has moved ahead of Trump by 0.3% in the last week in the FiveThirtyEight national aggregate, reversing a one-point Trump lead previously. Biden has also gained in the key states that will decide the Electoral College, with Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania effectively tied. Biden needs to win all three of these states for a 270-268 EC win.

Near-final European parliament election result

There were 720 total seats for the European parliament election that was held June 6-9 by proportional representation in the various countries, up 15 seats from the post-Brexit European parliament. The conservative European People’s Party won 189 seats (up two since 2019 adjusted for Brexit), the centre-left Socialists and Democrats 136 (down 12), the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists 83 (up 21), the liberal Renew 74 (down 23), the far-right Identity and Democracy 58 (down 18), the Greens 51 (down 16), the far-left 39 (down one) and all Others 90 (up 54). The Others group includes far-right parties that were expelled or resigned from other groups, such as Germany’s Alternative for Germany and Hungary’s governing Fidesz.

UK general election minus 17 days

Labour is still over 20 points ahead in UK national polls. Also covered: the French parliamentary elections on June 30 and July 7, Mexican final results and a South African government formed.

The UK general election will be held on July 4. The Guardian’s aggregate of UK national polls has Labour on 42.9% (down 1.1 since my June 9 article), the Conservatives on 22.3% (down 1.1), the far-right Reform on 13.6% (up 1.7), the Liberal Democrats on 10.3% (up 0.6) and the Greens on 5.7% (steady).

In the last two weeks, there has been movement to Reform and to a lesser extent the Lib Dems, and against both Labour and the Conservatives. A recent YouGov poll had Reform in second, one point ahead of the Conservatives, but this has not been repeated in other polls.

Owing to first past the post, these vote shares would mean a massive Labour landslide if they occur at the election, with the Electoral Calculus site on Friday giving Labour 461 of the 650 House of Commons seats, the Conservatives 80, Lib Dems 63 and Scottish National Party 20. Labour is still ahead of the SNP in Scottish polls, which would mean a big swing in Scotland to Labour and against the SNP, and a large seat gain for Scottish Labour.

Snap French parliamentary election likely disaster for Macron

On June 9, French president Emmanuel Macron announced a snap election for the lower house of parliament after dismal European election results for his Ensemble party. This election comes two years into a five-year term.

The 577 MPs are elected in two rounds using a single-member system. The first round will be held June 30, and candidates that finish top two in a seat, or win at least 12.5% of registered voters can continue (this is a high barrier because it factors in turnout). Candidates can withdraw before the July 7 runoffs, at which FPTP applies. The vast majority of seats won’t be decided until the runoffs.

At the 2022 parliamentary election, Ensemble won 245 of the 577 seats, below the 289 needed for a majority. The left-wing NUPES alliance won 131 seats, the far-right National Rally (RN) 89 and the conservative Republicans 64.

Left-wing parties have formed the New Popular Front (NFP) and will run one candidate in each seat. Polls suggest RN is in the low 30s, the NFP in the mid to high 20s, Ensemble below 20%, the Republicans about 8% and another far-right party has about 4%.

If these polls are replicated in the first round, Ensemble won’t make the top two in the large majority of seats, with the majority of runoffs between RN and NFP candidates. Some pollsters have seat projections that suggest RN would be close to a majority. Ensemble is likely to be drastically reduced from its current 248 seats, a disaster for Macron.

Mexican election: landslide for the left in legislature

I previously covered the June 2 Mexican election, in which left-wing candidate Claudia Sheinbaum won the presidency by 61.2-28.1 with invalid votes excluded. For the Chamber of Deputies, 300 seats were elected by FPTP and the remaining 200 by proportional representation. In the Senate, 96 seats (three for each of the 32 states) were elected by giving the strongest party in a state two seats and the runner-up one, with the remaining 32 allocated by PR.

In the Chamber, the left-wing coalition won the FPTP seats by 256-42, on vote shares of 56.8-31.6. They won overall by 373-102 with 24 for a centre-left party. In the Senate, the left won the state seats by 64-30, and won overall by 83-40 with five for the centre-left. The left exceeded the two-thirds majority needed to change the Constitution in the Chamber, but were two seats short in the Senate. At the previous presidential election in 2018, the left won 308 Chamber seats and 69 Senate seats.

South Africa: ANC and DA agree to form coalition

I previously covered the May 29 South African election, in which the African National Congress (ANC) lost the majority it had won at every election since 1994. On Friday, the ANC and pro-business Democratic Alliance (DA) agreed to form a governing coalition, and the ANC’s Cyril Ramaphosa was re-elected president. At the election, the ANC won 159 of the 400 seats and the DA 87, so the coalition will have 246 seats, easily surpassing the 201 needed for a majority.

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