Weekend miscellany: Morgan poll and preselection latest (open thread)

The Coalition chalks up consecutive leads in Roy Morgan polls, as Labor prepares to fill a Victorian Senate vacancy created by the death of Linda White.

The Coalition has now chalked up consecutive two-party preferred leads in Roy Morgan for the first time this term, its lead out from 50.5-49.5 to 51-49. The primary votes are little changed, with Labor up half a point to 30%, the Coalition up half a point to 38.5%, the Greens steady on 13.5% and One Nation down half a point to 5.5%. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1706. The Financial Review also published further results from its Freshwater Strategy poll showing 38% support for a longer term for the House of Representatives, with 44% opposed.

Preselection news:

• The Sydney Morning Herald reports Lisa Darmanin, public sector branch secretary of the Australian Services Union, is all but certain to win decisive Socialist Left backing to fill Labor’s Victorian Senate vacancy resulting from the death of Linda White in February. However, four further candidates are rated likely to nominate for the factional ballot, though not to win, “to force a party ballot amid frustration over ethnic diversity and union influence”. They are Wesa Chau, director of public policy at Multicultural Leadership Initiative; Pamela Anderson, chief executive of Labor women’s advocacy group Emily’s List; Nadia David, a farmer and criminologist; and Sorina Grasso, deputy mayor of the City of Knox. The party’s national secretary, Paul Erickson, and Victorian Attorney-General Jill Hennessy, have reportedly knocked back approaches to nominate.

• Samantha Ratnam, Victorian Greens leader and member for the upper house region of Northern Metropolitan, has announced she will quit state politics to seek preselection for the federal seat of Wills, which Peter Khalil retained for Labor ahead of the Greens by margins of 4.9% in 2016, 8.2% in 2019 and 8.6% in 2022. She faces a rival in the party’s candidate from 2022, Sarah Jefford, but Annika Smethurst of The Age rates Ratnam a “near certainty” in a party ballot for which voting wrapped upon Wednesday. The Age further reports the Greens hope to “unite conservative Muslim voters with young progressives”, it being presumed that the former will be disaffected over the government’s stance on the conflict in Gaza.

• A Liberal preselection last fortnight for the Perth seat of Tangney, which the party will be optimistic of recovering after Sam Lim gained it for Labor with an 11.9% swing in 2022, was won by Mark Wales, SAS veteran, Survivor winner and author of a novel about a future war with China. Joe Spagnolo of the Sunday Times reports Wales was a “clear winner” over Howard Ong, an IT consultant, and Sean Ayres, a litigation lawyer and staffer to the previous member for the seat, Ben Morton.

• The Financial Review reports Roanne Knox, former Deloitte consultant and founder of children’s fashion label Chasing Sunshine, will shortly be endorsed by the Liberal state executive as the candidate for Wentworth, where teal independent Allegra Spender defeated now Senator Dave Sharma in 2022. Peter King, who held the seat for a term before being deposed for preselection by Malcolm Turnbull in 2004, was earlier rated as a contender, has ultimately declined to nominate.

• The Sydney Morning Herald’s CBD column reports Jess Collins, conservative-aligned Lowy Institute research fellow and unsuccessful candidate for the late Jim Molan’s Senate vacancy in November, will contest the Senate preselection ballot for the next election, potentially posing a threat to Andrew Bragg, a moderate who alienated many in the party by supporting the Indigenous Voice. The other incumbent, centre right-aligned Hollie Hughes, is likely to get the top position.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

760 comments on “Weekend miscellany: Morgan poll and preselection latest (open thread)”

Comments Page 16 of 16
1 15 16
  1. nadia88 – I think the article went up and was discoverable by Google search a couple of minutes before it was properly linked to The Australian site front page and to the various sub section pages.

  2. Well, there you go…..Take a 3% off the LNP vote (primary) for the Nationals = bare 35% primary for the Liberals to scrape up 18 seats in the urban/metro areas.
    Labor on 33% not that flash but LNP nothing to cheer about in this Newspoll…….
    As D said a few posts ago, there needs a “4” in front of the primary for the LNP to get excited…..and those hoping for a 2 in front of the Labor primary cheered a bit too soon me thinks.

  3. FUBAR says:
    “Advising a rape victim to report the rape to Police is now a bad thing?”

    Advising a rape victim to report a rape about which one had no knowledge is truly a remarkable thing.

    Reynolds has the gift of precognition? Or mind reading?

  4. “Made in Australia!!!”

    Sure, except the business failed when Tritrium tried to transfer manufacturing to the US and scale up over there.

    Someone trousered the IP though.

  5. B. S. Fairman:

    “Then there is January and nobody is mad enough to call an election in January.”

    Campbell Newman was mad enough to call a state election in January.

    Which kinda proves your point …

  6. Andrew_Earlwood @ #675 Sunday, April 21st, 2024 – 8:03 pm


    “ Fact: the Reef is being killed with climate change as the main driver.”


    The are actually two statements of fact in that sentence. The first one is true. The second probably isn’t.

    Crumbs. Do some basic reading and try not to make as much of an idiot of yourself as the Bore routinely does here.

    Fact: Climate change is the main driver of coral bleaching.

    Here, I’ll get you started …


    Climate change is the greatest global threat to coral reef ecosystems. Scientific evidence now clearly indicates that the Earth’s atmosphere and ocean are warming, and that these changes are primarily due to greenhouse gases derived from human activities.

    As temperatures rise, mass coral bleaching events and infectious disease outbreaks are becoming more frequent. Additionally, carbon dioxide absorbed into the ocean from the atmosphere has already begun to reduce calcification rates in reef-building and reef-associated organisms by altering seawater chemistry through decreases in pH. This process is called ocean acidification.

    So, can we still save the Great Barrier Reef? The general consensus is that while it is probably too late for much of the reef, we can still save some – but it will require a much larger reduction in greenhouse gas emissions than we are currently committed to.

    Here, again I’ll help you get started …


    If our next federal government wants to save the reef, it must tackle the main reason it is in trouble by phasing out fossil fuel use and exports as quickly as possible.

    That article is a couple of years old, so the “next federal government” mentioned is actually the current one – i.e. Labor could help to save the reef if they chose to do so.

Comments Page 16 of 16
1 15 16

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *