Queensland election minus three days

As the finishing post comes into view, a mixed assortment of local developments, poll aggregation and news from betting markets.

As the clock ticks down, the poll tracker is recording it as 52.0-48.0 to Labor, although it has only been fed with three new results during the campaign period, so much of the polling having been at individual electorate level. The trend has been one of steady improvement for Labor since June, but everything remains contingent on the unknown quantity of One Nation, who are on 17.7% of the primary vote.

Bits and pieces:

• Labor MP Jo-Ann Miller, who has been a constant thorn in the government’s side since she was dumped as Police Minister in December 2015, conducted a pointedly cheery media opportunity yesterday with Pauline Hanson. It looked for all the world like Miller was laying the groundwork for a defection to One Nation, who are not fielding a candidate for her seat of Bundamba. The development greatly complicates Labor’s efforts to promote itself as the stable alternative to an LNP-One Nation alliance on the right.

• Labor chose the Gold Coast Convention Centre as the venue for its campaign launch, and featured Gaven candidate Meaghan Scanlon as one of only two supporting speakers – the other being boxing champion Jeff Horn. The LNP launch was conducted in the unfamiliar surrounds of The Triffid, a Fortitude Valley live music venue.

• Sportsbet has flipped its odds in favour of the LNP, who are in from $2 to $1.87, with Labor out from $1.75 to $1.95. Ladbrokes has gone the other way, calling it dead even at $1.88 apiece, after last week having the LNP marginal favourites at $1.83, with Labor on $1.95. However, it has Labor as favourites in 47 seats individually compared with 42 for the LNP, along with two where there’s nothing in it and two favoured to remain with Katter’s Australian Party. Nowhere is One Nation rated the favourite, the closest being Lockyer on $2.25 with the LNP on $1.62.

• Ladbrokes now has the LNP as favourites in Mundingburra, with the LNP in from $3.50 to $1.90, Labor out from $1.50 to $1.95, and One Nation out from $5.50 to $8. One Nation’s Steve Dickson has lost his favourite status in Buderim, having gone from $1.85 to $2.10, with the LNP in from $1.91 to $1.67. There also seems to have been money coming in for Hetty Johnston in Macalister, who started on $6 and is now on $2.25, although Labor remain favourites at $1.30.

Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Essential Research polls on early election prospects and the next stage of same-sex marriage, and records little change on voting intention.

The latest Essential Research result appears to have Labor leading 54-46 (it says 52% to 46% in the report, but it also says there is no change). GhostWhoVotes was somehow able to relate that the primary votes were Coalition 35% (down one), Labor 38% (steady), Greens 9% (steady) and One Nation 8% (steady). The poll finds 47% saying the government should run its full term, compared with 37% who favour an early election. Thirty-six per cent said they expected Labor to win the next election, compared with 20% for the Coalition, and 18% for a hung parliament.

The poll also found 63% of the view that marriage celebrants should be allowed to refuse to officiate at same-sex weddings, with 27% opposed. Other related issues were finely balanced: 48% opposed the notion that businesses should have the right to refuse service to gay weddings, while 43% supported it; 42% supported parents being able to remove their children from classes that did not reflect a traditional view of marriage, while 44% were opposed.

ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor in Queensland

ReachTEL records a slight break in Labor’s favour statewide, and a mixed bag from seat polls in Ferny Grove, Thuringowa and Whitsunday.

A ReachTEL poll for Sky News has Labor leading 51-49 on respondent-allocated preferences less than a week out from the Queensland election. This is the first time this year Labor has led in a poll by ReachTEL, which has been less favourable for Labor than other pollsters. The primary votes are Labor 34%, LNP 30%, One Nation 17%, Greens 10% and Katter’s Australian Party 3%.

There were also individual seat polls from Ferny Grove, Thuringowa and Whitsunday, although Sky News don’t appear to have published these on their website. The results confirm the general picture of Labor doing well enough in the state’s south-east (in this case leading 54-46 in Ferny Grove, a status quo result post-redistribution), but under pressure from One Nation in Townsville (50-50 in Thuringowa) and at mercy to One Nation preference flows elsewhere in northern Queensland (50.5-49.5 to Labor in Whitsunday, a 1% swing to Labor).

More detail to follow, hopefully.

Northcote by-election live

Live coverage of the count for Victoria’s Northcote state by-election, where Labor is under challenge from the Greens.

Thorpe (Greens)
Lenk (AJP)
Rossiter (LDP)
Burns (Labor)
Booths reporting on primary vote (out of 14)
Booths reporting on two-party preferred (out of 14)
Votes counted as % of enrolment (48,113)

End of night. Postal votes have taken a bite out of the Greens margin; the table above shows a now-redundant booth-based projection that fails to reflect this. So it does not now appear that this will eclipse the party’s 45.6% vote in the New South Wales seat of Newtown as its strongest ever result on the primary vote. Ben Raue at The Tally Room has interactive results maps, which show the Greens did strikingly well in what had hitherto been the best parts of the electorate for Labor, suggesting an expanding domain of the Greens-favouring “latte belt”.

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Queensland election: Newspoll marginal seat polling

Numerous new polls, most notably Newspoll marginal seat results that confirm a complicated overall picture.

The Australian has six marginal seat polls from Newspoll, with samples ranging from 504 to 693, producing a mixed bag for all concerned. In descending order of good news for the government:

Mansfield (notional Labor 0.8%): Labor is credited with a 52-48 lead in the seat held by Shadow Attorney-General Ian Walker, which is one of a number of seats they will seemingly need to gain from the LNP in south-eastern Queensland to balance losses elsewhere. Labor leads 40% to 37% on the primary vote, with One Nation on 16% and the Greens on 7%. Oddly, this seat turned up one of the most favourable results on a supplemetary question conerning the Adani coal mine, which was supported by 50% and opposed by 34%.

Whitsunday (LNP 0.6%): A lineball result in 2015 that is projected to be so again this time, with everything depending on the flow of preferences from a third-placed One Nation on 19%. Labor is on 32%, down about four points since 2015, while the LNP is down nearly eleven to 31%, with the Greens steady on 7%. Lineball too on Adani, with 42% supportive and 39% opposed.

Gaven (LNP 2.8%): Another margin-of-error result from an LNP-held marginal seat, with the LNP credited with a lead of 51-49 from primary votes of LNP 50%, Labor 43% and Greens 7%. Adani records 36% support, 38% opposition.

Ipswich West (Labor 9.1%): One Nation gouge the LNP to record 29% of the primary vote, with the LNP’s 17% less than half of what they recorded in 2015. But with Labor’s 45% supplemented by 9% for the Greens, Labor records a comfortable 57-43 lead over One Nation on two-party preferred. Adani is supported by 37%, opposed by 34%.

Bundaberg (Labor 0.5%): The poll finds Labor set to lose Bundaberg to the LNP, the margin in this case being 53-47. The LNP leads 37% to 33% on the primary vote, with preferences from the 21% One Nation vote set to decide the result. This may be a seat where One Nation’s direction of preferences against incumbents may tell against Labor. The Adani question finds 33% supportive, 42% opposed.

Thuringowa (Labor 6.6%): One Nation appears set to poach this Townsville suburbs seat from Labor, skipping ahead of the LNP by 28% to 21% on the primary vote. With Labor’s primary vote at an anaemic 29%, the poll finds One Nation set to mow them down on LNP preferences and win by 54-46. This comes a week after Galaxy found the other Townsville suburbs seat, Mundingburra, flipping from Labor to LNP by a 52-48 margin. Perhaps relatedly, the poll finds emphatic support for Adani, with 52% for and 26% against.

Further poll news:

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Galaxy: 50-50 in Bennelong; ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal

Two polls suggest Labor’s Kristina Keneally gambit is paying off – although one more so than the other.

Two polls from Bennelong:

• The Daily Telegraph has a Galaxy poll that has nothing separating John Alexander and Kristina Keneally on two-party preferred. The only primary vote numbers provided are 42% for Alexander and 39% for Keneally. Despite Keneally’s strong showing, only 37% rated that Keneally had done a good job as Premier, compared with 42% for bad job. The poll of 579 respondents was conducted on Wednesday evening, following the announcement of Keneally’s candidacy on Monday.

• A slightly less dramatic result from ReachTEL for the Sydney Morning Herald, with John Alexander leading 53-47 on two-party preferred – which nonetheless indicates a swing of over 6%. The primary votes seem to be a shade under 36% for Alexander and around 29% for Keneally. The poll of 864 respondents was conducted on Thursday evening. Alexander’s personal ratings (51.2% favourable versus 15% unfavourable) are rather stronger than Keneally’s (41.6% to 28.1%), and Malcolm Turnbull records a 59.7-40.3 lead as preferred prime minister.