Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

Victorian polls: RedBridge Group and Resolve Strategic

Amid an unclear picture overall, two Victorian state polls show encouraging results for the Greens.

Two new state polls from Victoria, one being from RedBridge Group/Accent Research in yesterday’s Financial Review. It finds Labor steady on last month’s result at 24%, the Coalition up one to 30%, One Nation down one to 24% and the Greens up one to 16%. Labor trails the Coalition 56-44 on two-party preferred, but leads One Nation 55-45. Leadership ratings have Ben Carroll at 19% favourable (up five from August), 44% neutral (down 13) and 37% negative (up eight), and Jess Wilson at 35% favourable (up two), 47% neutral (steady) and 18% unfavourable (down two), with 28% favouring Wilson on preferred premier, 19% Carroll and 8% One Nation leader Warren Pickering. The poll was conducted October 2 to 8 from a sample of 1008.

The regular monthly Resolve Strategic poll in The Age is notable in recording a three-point uptick for the Greens to 15%, with the main contenders unchanged at Labor 25%, Coalition 28% and One Nation 23%. A three-way preferred premier question has everyone up – Ben Carroll by two points to 22%, Jess Wilson by one to 29% and One Nation’s Warren Pickering by six to 14%, with undecided down from 43% to 35%. The accompanying report has further results on the salience of various issues and the best party to handle them. The poll was conducted October 6 to 10 from a sample of 1000.

Federal polls: DemosAU and Roy Morgan (open thread)

The latest quarterly MRP exercise from DemosAU suggests Labor could retain a majority from a very modest share of the primary vote — which is just as well for them.

DemosAU has published one of its quarterly multilevel regression and post-stratification polls for Capital Brief, which estimates results at seat level based on demographic and geographic modelling and a large-sample survey. It rates Labor the more likely winner in 84 seats, although its randomised simulations of 20,000 potential scenarios suggests this flatters them, the probable range of outcomes being from 73 to 85. This would nonetheless seem encouraging for Labor given the poll credits them with only 27% of the primary vote.

By contrast, One Nation’s 26% vote gets them rated favourites in only 24 seats (range 22 to 35), whereas the Coalition’s 22% gets them 34 (range 25 to 44). The Greens are credited with 13% of the vote but no seats, a Liberal National win being rated the most likely outcome in their remaining seat of Ryan, although this is projected as a close three-way result. The pollster’s full release features primary vote, two-candidate preferred and win probability estimates for every seat. The survey was conducted August 4 to September 19 from a sample of 9740.

The latest result from a Roy Morgan series that has moved from weekly to fortnightly has Labor steady on 26%, One Nation down one-and-a-half to 24%, the Coalition down one to 21.5% and the Greens unchanged on 15%. Labor holds two-party leads of 53-47 over the Coalition on respondent-allocated preferences, out from 52.5-47.5; 53.5-46.5 on previous election preferences; and 54.5-45.5 on a respondent-allocated measure against One Nation, out from 53.5-46.5. The pollster’s full report features primary vote breakdowns by state. The poll was conducted September 28 to October 11 from a sample of 2655.

Federal polls: Newspoll and Resolve Strategic (open thread)

Amid a seemingly troublesome week for the government, two new polls record slight improvements in its primary vote.

The latest Newspoll result in The Australian has Labor’s primary vote up two points from three weeks ago to 29%, with One Nation down two to 28%, the Coalition up one to 20% and the Greens up one to 14%. Anthony Albanese is up a point on approval to 36% and down two on disapproval to 60%; Angus Taylor is up one to 36% and down three to 47%; and Pauline Hanson is down one to 43% and up one to 52%. A three-way preferred prime minister question has Albanese up one to 45%, Hanson down two to 30% and Taylor up one to 25%. Of the traditional preferred prime minister question, we are told that Albanese leads Taylor by five points, compared with a 42-41 lead last time. The poll was conducted Monday to Tuesday from a sample of 1241.

Nine Newspapers also has its monthly Resolve Strategic poll, showing Labor up a point to 29%, One Nation down two to 25%, the Coalition down one to 23% and the Greens up one to 12%. Anthony Albanese’s combined very good and result is up two to 36%, with poor and very poor up one to 54%. Angus Taylor is respectively up two to 41% and up three to 33%, and Pauline Hanson is down two to 45% and up four to 41%. A three-way preferred prime minister question has Albanese up three to 32%, Taylor up one to 22% and Hanson up one to 26%. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 2250.

Resolve Strategic should follow up with a Victorian state result over the coming days. There is also a new Victorian state poll from RedBridge Group/Accent Research, which is covered at the top of the previous post.

Victorian election minus seven weeks

A Roy Morgan seat projection suggests hope for Labor; the latest on Labor’s protracted upper house preselection process; and some expectations management from the One Nation camp.

UPDATE (October 11): The Financial Review has published a RedBridge Group/Accent Research poll that has Labor steady on last month on 24%, the Coalition up one to 30%, One Nation down one to 24% and the Greens up one to 16%. Labor trails the Coalition 56-44 on two-party preferred, but leads One Nation 55-45. Leadership ratings have Ben Carroll at 19% favourable (up five from August), 44% neutral (down 13) and 37% negative (up eight), and Jess Wilson at 35% favourable (up two), 47% neutral (steady) and 18% unfavourable (down two), with 28% favouring Wilson on preferred premier, 19% Carroll and 8% One Nation leader Warren Pickering. The poll was conducted October 2 to 8 from a sample of 1008.

Developments from the last week or two on the Victorian election front:

• Roy Morgan has published a seat projection based on 7708 respondents surveyed since March, which seems notably strong for Labor at 40 seats, enough to hang on to power with the six seats attributed to the Greens. That leaves the Coalition with 31 and One Nation with 11. How this is determined is not entirely clear, although the report further details One Nation “winnability scores” for the 88 seats. These appear to measure their demographic correspondence with the party’s “core support base”, while also taking account of three-party ordering and estimated preference flows.

• The ABC reports Labor will not formalise candidates at the business end of its upper house tickets until October 21, with the more consequential positions to be decided a week before. Labor expects to be reduced to a single seat in almost every region, whereas it currently holds two in all but one. The Australian’s Victoria Ink column reports the Left is demanding an advance on its existing share of two top spots out of eight, leaving the Right having to “offer up one of their own to help square the ledger”. This consideration is separate from a deal in which Enver Erdogan, who was elected from second position in Northern Metropolitan in 2022, will swap positions with Tim McIntosh, who was elected from first in Eastern Victoria. The ABC report says Erdogan and McIntosh are from “separate subgroups within Labor’s broader Right faction”, Erdogan’s being the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association.

• Sumeyya Ilanbey of the Financial Review reports One Nation is pursuing a “hit list” of 20 seats, but also quotes an insider saying the party was in fact focused on “about six seats” amid fears it had “left its ground game too late”. The former consists of Labor-held Lara, Bendigo West, Bendigo East, Eureka, Sunbury, Melton, Yan Yean, Ripon, Hastings, Pakenham and Bass; Liberal-held Evelyn, Berwick and Benambra; and Nationals-held Gippsland East, Gippsland South, Murray Plains, Euroa, Morwell and Mildura. For those who can access it, the report also features seat-level party vote shares from an MRP poll RedBridge Group conducted for Trades Hall in June.

• The Australian’s Victoria Ink column reports it has obtained a letter in which Labor campaign director Steve Staikos says the party is “open to” a three-way leaders’ debate including One Nation’s Warren Pickering, noting that polling “has consistently pointed to a scenario where the Liberal Party would only be able to form government with One Nation’s support”.

YouGov: Labor 25, One Nation 28, Coalition 21 (open thread)

Labor hits a new low on the primary vote in an otherwise little-changed set of fortnightly federal poll numbers from YouGov.

The latest fortnightly News24 Pulse poll by YouGov records only minor change on the last result, although Labor’s one-point drop to 25% is noteworthy in being a new low for them in this series. One Nation is up a point to 28%, the Coalition is steady on 21% and the Greens are up one to a new peak of 15%. Labor’s lead over One Nation on the respondent-allocated two-party measure is in from 55-45 to 53-47, while its lead over the Coalition on the previous election flows two-party measure is unchanged at 52-48.

Anthony Albanese is unchanged at 33% approval and down one to 61% disapproval, while Angus Taylor is down two to 34% and up three to 51%. Albanese’s lead over Taylor on preferred prime minister is down to 40-39, in from 41-37 last time, and his lead over Hanson has narrowed from 50-38 to 50-40. The poll also finds 63-37 breaking against Jim Chalmers’ proposition that last week’s interest rate increase was “primarily the result of the conflict in the Middle East”. It was conducted last Tuesday to this Tuesday from a sample of 1505.

RedBridge Group: Labor 28, One Nation 29, Coalition 21 (open thread)

A new federal poll finds One Nation edging to a primary vote lead, and a further slump in Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings.

The Financial Review has its monthly RedBridge Group/Accent Research poll, showing One Nation gaining a point to lead on the primary vote with 29%, Labor down one to 28%, the Coalition down one to 21% and the Greens down one to 11%. The poll is distinctive in crediting the Coalition with a 54-46 two-party lead over Labor on respondent-allocated preferences, out from 52-48, albeit that the Coalition would clearly be running third in most seats on these numbers. A measure based on 2025 election preference flows shows 50-50, after Labor led 52-48 last time. Labor holds an unchanged respondent-allocated lead of 52-48 over One Nation.

The report has net approval ratings for various figures, for which I will hopefully be able to provide more detail later today. Anthony Albanese has slumped ten points to a net minus 27%, Jim Chalmers is down nine to 23%, Pauline Hanson is up two to minus 10, and Angus Taylor is down three to minus six. Respondents were also asked about Michelle Bullock, who was at minus three, though the uncommitted rate here would be worth knowing. A three-way preferred prime minister question has Albanese steady on 31%, Hanson up two to 26% and Taylor steady on 15%. The poll was conducted last Monday to Friday from a sample of 1000.

Note also the post below on today’s Brazilian presidential election.

Federal polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)

Two new federal polls, one recording improvement for Labor from a particularly bad result last time, the other showing little change.

Two federal polls that reported this week:

• The monthly Essential Research poll recorded a recovery for Labor after a particularly bad result last time, up three on the primary vote to 29%, with the Coalition down four to 22%, One Nation up two to 25%, the Greens down one to 12% and undecided up one to 6%. Labor edged into a 48-46 lead over the Coalition on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure, after the Coalition led 50-45 last time. Anthony Albanese was up two on approval to 37% and down two on disapproval to 54%, while Angus Taylor was down one to 31% and up two on disapproval to 43%. The full report features extensive further questions on immigration (including a finding that general attitudes have improved since April, with 46% viewing it as generally positive and 39% as generally negative, up five and down six respectively), one on gambling, and another on (indirectly) Ed Sheeran. The poll was conducted last Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1008.

• The weekly Roy Morgan poll breaks from the pollster’s recent practice in encompassing a fortnight of surveying, and presumably half consists of the result that was published last week, with an overall sample of 2569. The movements on last week’s result are duly more modest than Morgan’s recent form, which was presumably the idea: Labor up one to 26%, One Nation steady on 25.5%, the Coalition up one to 22.5% and the Greens down one to 14.5%. Labor’s respondent-allocated lead over One Nation is in from 54-46 to 53.5-46.5; against the Coalition, Labor is out from 52-48 to 52.5-47.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and steady on 52-48 on previous election flows. With its expanded sample, the release linked to above also treats us to full voting intention breakdowns from the mainland states.

Victorian election: DemosAU poll, election guide and seat projection model

A narrowing in the Coalition’s advantage over Labor in a new Victorian state poll. Also: introducing the Poll Bludger election guide and seat projection model.

The Herald Sun reports a DemosAU/PremierNational poll of Victorian state voting intention has the Coalition’s two-party lead over Labor narrowing from 55-45 to 52-48, from primary votes of Labor 25% (up two), Coalition 30% (down two), One Nation 20% (down two) and Greens 14% (up one). Ben Carroll’s personal ratings are up two for positive to 23%, down two for neutral to 40% and steady on 37% for negative; Jess Wilson’s are down two on positive to 33%, up one on neutral to 42% and up one on negative to 25%; and Warren Pickering’s ratings have responded only moderately to the recent elevation to his public profile, up three on positive to 22%, down five on neutral to 38% and up two on negative to 40%. The poll was conducted September 10 to 20 from a sample of 1020. A full report featuring detailed breakdowns should be on the pollster’s website later today.

UPDATE (1/10): The Herald-Sun today has a Freshwater Strategy poll that gives the Coalition a 53-47 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 24%, Coalition 29%, One Nation 22% and Greens 14%. A three-way preferred premier question has Jess Wilson at 37%, Ben Carroll at 30% and Warren Pickering at 13%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1030.

I am also pleased to announce that the Poll Bludger’s Victorian election guide is now online, with all the customary features: tables, charts, interactive maps and analysis of all 88 lower house seats and eight upper house regions, plus a general overview of the electoral terrain and state politics generally over the past parliamentary term.

No less exciting is a new addition to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate that aims to make sense of the new electoral terrain by projecting outcomes for all 88 seats, based on modelling and the latest reading of the poll aggregate. To cut a long story short, the model is based largely on the relationship between federal and state election results in South Australia, the only case study so far of how voting patterns have changed since One Nation’s apparent transformation from minor to major party, together with Indigenous Voice referendum results (a pointer to strength for One Nation), data on outright home ownership (a pointer to the Liberals) and whether the seat has a Coalition incumbent (which appeared to be a relevant factor in the seats where the Liberals held out against One Nation in South Australia). If this approach proves its worth, I may end up applying it to the federal context.

The seat projection currently suggests Labor will be copping it at both ends, losing exactly enough seats to the Coalition to give the latter a bare majority of 45 seats while also bearing almost the entire brunt of One Nation’s 15 seat haul, in contrast to South Australia where Labor’s primary vote was 37.5% as compared with BludgerTrack Victoria’s current estimate of 25.2%. The former includes what would undoubtedly be some surprise Liberal gains in Melbourne, including Albert Park, Eltham and not least the Premier’s seat of Niddrie, with the very considerable qualification that the model makes little allowance for candidates’ personal votes. One Nation is credited with a new empire extending from Melbourne’s outer north and west through the Ballarat seats to Ripon, along with scattered gains elsewhere. UPDATE: A correction/revision to the model has made its projection less rosy for the Coalition, who are now at only 38 seats.

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