Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

Weekend miscellany: Hastie v Hanson and more (open thread)

Tentative early indications of how the blow-up between Andrew Hastie and One Nation might play out on the political right, plus preselection latest.

Recent items in the news of relevance to a federal election that will presumably be held in early 2028:

• A survey of 1000 prospective One Nation voters conducted recently by former Labor-aligned pollster John Utting and strategist Bruce Hawker was the subject of a comment piece by Peter Hartcher of Nine Newspapers a fortnight ago, which noted that their most favourably viewed public figure after Pauline Hanson was Ben Roberts-Smith, with a favourability approaching 70%. However, another piece by Hartcher today (not yet available online) quotes RedBridge Group pollster Kos Samaras saying his firm’s focus group research suggests “public opinion is siding with Hastie and against Hanson, on which Samaras further elaborates in a Facebook post.

• The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column reports Northern Territory Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price is pushing for the Country Liberal Party to delay its preselections until next year at its annual convention this weekend, and cites “senior LNP sources” saying she is canvassing support for a move to a seat in south-eastern Queensland, which Price denies. One possibility raised is Forde on Brisbane’s southern fringe, which Labor gained from the LNP at the 2025 election; another is the Gold Coast seat of Moncrieff, held for the LNP since 2019 by Angie Bell. The column further quotes a “well-placed source” asking, “why the f… isn’t she running in Solomon?”.

• InDaily reports Robert Simms, a Greens member for the South Australian state upper house, will nominate to succeed Barbara Pocock as the party’s lead Senate candidate in the state at the next election. Simms had a previous spell in the Senate from 2015 to 2016, filling a casual vacancy and then failing to win re-election from second position on the party ticket at the 2016 double dissolution. The party’s state secretary, Isaac Astill, has also said he will nominate. Pocock announced last month she would not seek re-election, but InDaily reports she will serve out her remaining term.

The Australian’s Victoria Ink column reports suggestions Mark Dreyfus is manoeuvring for Jim Round, former chief-of-staff to Dreyfus and current chief-of-staff to Assistant Treasurer Daniel Mulino, to succeed him in his seat of Isaacs at the next election. However, another candidate might be Steve Michelson, a former staffer to Bill Shorten. The seat has traditionally been a preserve of Shorten’s Australian Workers Union sub-faction of the Right, whereas Round is aligned with the Left.

YouGov: Labor 26, One Nation 30, Coalition 18 (open thread)

Another strong poll result for One Nation in the wake of its Secret Harbour by-election triumph.

The fortnightly YouGov/News24 Pulse poll finds One Nation returning to its June peak, the Coalition only one point up on where it was at the time, and Labor three points lower for its equal worst result of the term. Labor is down three on last fortnight to 26%, with One Nation up four to 30%, the Coalition down three to 18% and the Greens steady on 12%. Labor’s two-party lead over One Nation narrows from 56-44 to 53-47, and its lead over the Coalition is in from 53-47 to 52-48.

Movements on leaders’ ratings are rather more modest: Anthony Albanese is up one on approval to 36% and steady on 59% disapproval; Angus Taylor is up three to 36% and down one to 48%; Albanese’s lead over Taylor is in from 44-37 to 43-39; and his lead over Hanson is in from 52-37 to 51-40. Questions on immigration including a finding that 36% think One Nation would be best to manage it, compared with 18% each for Labor and the Coalition. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to this Tuesday from a sample of 1510.

DemosAU: 56-44 to LNP in Queensland

One Nation takes a dip from recent heights in the latest poll from the movement’s state of origin.

DemosAU had the last in its tranche of quarterly state polls, this time from Queensland, which has the Liberal National Party steady on 34%, Labor up one to 26%, One Nation down three to 21% and the Greens up one to 11%. The LNP’s two-party lead over Labor narrows from 58-42 to 56-44, and David Crisafulli’s lead over Steven Miles as preferred premier narrows from 47-30 to 45-33. Individual leadership ratings, which did not feature last time, have Crisafulli at 42% positive, 28% neutral and 24% negative, and Steven Miles at 30%, 26% and 35%. The poll was conducted August 22 to September 2 from a sample of 1291.

Morgan: Labor 27, One Nation 26.5, Coalition 21.5 (open thread)

A move to Labor from last week fails to stick in the latest result from the Roy Morgan series.

In what looks like a quiet week on the federal polling front, we at least have the regular Roy Morgan poll, which all but erases the lead Labor opened over One Nation last week in having the former down two-and-a-half points to 27% and the latter up three to 26.5%. The Coalition is up a point to 21.5% and the Greens are up one to 14.5%. Labor’s lead over One Nation on the respondent-allocated two-party measure narrows from 55.5-44.5 to 53.5-46.5; over the Coalition, Labor’s lead is in from 56-44 to 53-47 on respondent allocated preferences and from 55-45 to 52.5-47.5 on previous election preference flows. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1541.

DemosAU: Labor 37, One Nation 25, Liberal 17 in South Australia

A new poll finds Peter Malinauskas and Labor remaining in command in South Australia.

InDaily reports the quarterly South Australian state DemosAU poll has Labor up two to 37%, One Nation down one to 25%, Liberal down one to 17% and the Greens steady on 13%. A two-party preferred result is provided for Labor and One Nation, with Labor’s lead out from 56-44 to 58-42. A three-way preferred premier question has Peter Malinauskas up five to 46%, One Nation’s Cory Bernardi steady on 20% and Liberal leader Ashton Hurn reduced to third, down three to 17%.

Malinauskas’s ratings are 44% positive (up one), 37% neutral (up one) and 19% negative (down two); Hurn’s are 22% positive (up one), 54% neutral (down one) and 24% negative (steady); and Bernardi’s are 20% positive (steady), 42% neutral (up three) and 38% negative (down three). The poll was conducted August 5 to 26 from a sample of 1012. Demographic details will be available on the full report in due course on the pollster’s website.

Federal polls: Roy Morgan and Essential Research (open thread)

Labor sink to new lows on while poll series, while perking up in another.

Two markedly different federal poll results from the past few days, the more favourable for Labor being from the uneven Roy Morgan series, which has them up two-and-a-half points to 29.5%, with One Nation down three-and-a-half to 23.5%, the Coalition down half to 20.5% and the Greens down half to 13.5%. Labor is credited with two-party preferred leads on respondent-allocated preferences of 55.5-44.5 over One Nation (out from 53-47) and 56-44 over the Coalition (out from 52-48), and a lead of 55-45 over the Coalition on previous election preference flows (out from 52.5-47.5). The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1585.

Conversely, the monthly Essential Research poll gives Labor its worst result of the term, down five on the primary vote to 26% with the Coalition up four to 26%, One Nation down two to 23% and the Greens up one to 13%, with an undecided component accounting for 5%. The Coalition leads the pollster’s 2PP+ measure by 50-45, after Labor led 48-47 last time. Anthony Albanese is down three on approval to 35% and up four on disapproval to 56%, while Angus Taylor is respectively down one to 32% and down three to 41%. The regular national mood question has the “right direction” response down five to a new low of 23%, with wrong direction up six to a new high of 59%. The full report has further questions on workplace relations, social media and the “manosphere”. The poll was presumably conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a ample of a bit over 1000, though details are not yet available.

Donation drive

Time for the Poll Bludger’s bi-monthly virtual tin-rattle. This instalment’s case for special pleading is made by the very fine job this site did in keeping the nation posted about the Secret Harbour by-election on Saturday night (hats off to the ABC television news for showing a dejected Labor campaign worker viewing the results on my site rather than theirs), and the outstanding quality of the Victorian state election guide on which I’ve been very hard at work and will hopefully have ready to roll in a couple of weeks. Donations are gratefully received through “become a supporter” buttons at the top of the site and bottom of each page.

DemosAU: Labor 32, Coalition 25, One Nation 23 in New South Wales

Some badly needed good news for the New South Wales Coalition, which has perked up a bit in a new state poll.

The Daily Telegraph reports (though seemingly not online) that latest DemosAU poll of state voting intention in New South Wales has the Coalition bouncing back five points to 25%, mostly at the expense of One Nation who are down four from a record high to 23%. Labor and the Greens are steady on 32% and 13% respectively. The pollster provides a two-party figure with Labor leading 57-43 based on preference flows in 2023, but cautions that this “factors in a large exhaustion rate for One Nation voters” that could be lower in the event of a preference deal. The poll also features upper house voting intention results with Labor on 31%, the Coalition on 25%, One Nation on 24% and the Greens on 14%, and a seat projection showing 20 or perhaps 21 seats out of 40 going to a broadly defined right.

Leadership ratings, which did not feature in the June poll, find Chris Minns at 37% positive, 41% neutral and 22% negative, Kellie Sloane is at 25%, 55% and 20%, and Chris Minns leading 44-26 on preferred premier. Further questions find 55% support for the federal-state gun buyback scheme with 27% opposed, and 28% of a view that the state is headed in the right direction compared with 49% for wrong direction (a uniform pattern of such polling of late). The poll was conducted August 19 to 26 from a sample of 1028; the full report features demographic breakdowns and should be available on the pollster’s website over the next day or so.

Further news of relevance to the election in March:

• One Nation has announced Mike Newman as its prospective parliamentary leader and candidate for the Labor-held Hunter region seat of Cessnock. Newman served from 2022 to 2024 as one of the state’s trade and investment commissioners, a role made famous by former Nationals leader John Barilaro and abolished when Labor came to power. The party’s upper house ticket will be headed by Stuart Bonds, who has twice achieved strong results in the federal seat for Hunter.

• The Daily Telegraph’s The Sauce column reports Tara Moriarty has been reduced to seventh position on Labor’s upper house ticket after leading it in 2019. Daniel Mookhey and Penny Sharpe will head the ticket, followed by newcomer Bernard Govind, incumbent Anthony D’Adam, and newcomers Mark Morey and Asren Pugh. Not featured are incumbents Mark Buttigieg, who reportedly lost the support of the Right because the Electrical Trades Union was no longer aligned with it, and Greg Donnelly, who is retiring.

• Rod Bruem of the Ballina News Daily reports Byron Shire councillor Janet Swain and former NBN News cameraman Lachlan Hall have nominated for Labor preselection in Ballina, which will be vacated at the election with the retirement of Greens member Tamara Smith.

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