Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

DemosAU: Labor 21, Coalition 30, One Nation 23 in Victoria

With less than five months to go, a second Victorian state poll finds Labor running third behind One Nation.

A two-month Victorian state polling drought has ended with a bang, with Freshwater Strategy reporting earlier in the week, DemosAU doing so today, and Resolve Strategic presumably set to follow next week. All of which would seem to be an unwelcome development for Jacinta Allan, with DemosAU joining Freshwater Strategy in showing Labor running third behind One Nation. The Coalition is up a point on the last DemosAU poll in February to 30%, with Labor down two to 21% and One Nation up two to 23%, and the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 53-47 to 55-45.

Jacinta Allan’s positive rating is up two to 18%, but her negative rating is up four to 57% with neutral down six to 25%. Jess Wilson is up five on positive to 32%, down three on neutral to 46% and down two on negative to 22%. The poll was conducted Sunday to Thursday from a sample of 1056. A full report including extensive demographic breakdowns will presumably be available on the pollster’s website shortly – Freshwater Strategy has now published its equivalent from the poll earlier in the week.

Morgan: Labor 26, One Nation 29.5, Coalition 17.5 (open thread)

The latest Roy Morgan poll supports trends now clearly established elsewhere, with One Nation first and the Coalition a very distant third.

The weekly Roy Morgan series joins Newspoll, YouGov, RedBridge Group and DemosAU in having One Nation leading on the primary vote, surging two-and-a-half points to 29.5%, with Labor down a point to 26% and the Coalition down two-and-a-half to 17.5%. The latter result is half-a-point off the record worst poll result the Coalition recorded in a RedBridge Group poll in March, and puts them barely ahead of the Greens, up two to 15.5%. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1631. A Labor-versus-One Nation two-party result has Labor leading 53.5-46.5 – I’m unclear if this is respondent-allocated or based on speculative estimates. Conventional two-party results have Labor leading the Coalition 56-44 on respondent-allocated (out from 55.5-44.5) and 54-46 using previous election preference flows (out from 53.5-46.5).

The Australian Electoral Commission has published finalised results from the Farrer by-election, so we now have the preference distribution and preference-flow-by-candidate data. The latter reveals that Liberal preferences recorded a surprisingly evenly 59.0-41.0 split in favour of One Nation winner David Farley over independent Michelle Milthorpe, compared with 69.1-30.9 among Nationals voters. The split among Greens voters was fully 91.8-8.2 in favour of Milthorpe.

DemosAU: LNP 34, Labor 25, One Nation 24 in Queensland

After a close escape at the Stafford by-election, another poll points to a weakening position for state Labor in Queensland.

We can expect quite a bit in the way of state polling over the coming weeks, with today’s Freshwater Strategy result for Victoria to be joined soon by another result for the state from Resolve Strategic, and DemosAU/Premier National promising a round of state polling as per its quarterly schedule. The first of the latter is a result for Queensland that has One Nation gaining three points to 24%, which comes at the expense of Labor, down three to 25%, rather than the Liberal National Party, steady on 34%. The Greens are likewise steady on 10%. A conventional two-party preferred result has the LNP leading Labor 58-42, out from 56-44 in the last poll and from 53.8-46.2 at the October 2024 election. David Crisafulli holds a 47-30 lead over Steven Miles on preferred premier, out from 43-32. The poll was conducted May 27 to June 3 from a sample of 1033. Voting intention breakdowns and further results on state direction and issue salience are available in the full report.

Further Queensland electoral news:

• The final result of the May 16 Stafford by-election was a 1.4% winning margin for Luke Richmond, who retained the seat against a 3.8% swing. Liberal National Party candidate Fiona Hammond outpolled Richmond 40.3% to 30.8% on first preferences, but in the absence of One Nation the minor party and independent vote was overwhelmingly left-wing, with preferences flowing accordingly.

• The Queensland Redistribution Commission will release its final determination of the redistribution of state electoral boundaries in “mid-2026”. With the Ipswich region seat of Jordan to be divided between the new seats of Springfield and Greenbank, the Courier-Mail’s George Street Beat column reported on a push within the Left to force Charis Mullen, the Right-aligned member for Jordan, to run for the less safe seat of Greenbank so as to make Springfield available to Ipswich councillor Pye Augustine.

• The Sunday Mail reports expectations that LNP members John-Paul Langbroek (Surfers Paradise), Ros Bates (Mudgeeraba) and Fiona Simpson (Maroochydore) will retire at the next election.

Freshwater Strategy: Labor 23, Coalition 27, One Nation 25 in Victoria

A new Victorian state poll finds Labor running third and 62% backing Jacinta Allan being replaced before the November election.

The Herald Sun has a Freshwater Strategy poll of state voting intention in Victoria that has Labor sinking four points from the last such poll in March to 23%, the Coalition down three to 27%, and One Nation up five to 25%. The report does not provide a result for the Greens, but the Coalition is credited with a 53-47 two-party preferred.

Jess Wilson’s lead over Jacinta Allan as preferred premier has blown out from 47-31 to 49-25, an unusually wide lead for an Opposition Leader over an incumbent. Allan’s net approval rating is down from minus 32 to minus 37, while Wilson’s is down from plus 18 to plus 15. Sixty-two per cent favoured dumping Allan before the November election, including 39% among Labor voters. The poll was conducted between Friday and today from a sample of 1034 – there are a few missing threads, so hopefully we will be hearing more from the print edition or directly from the pollster. I believe we will also see a Resolve Strategic bi-monthly state poll result from Nine Newspapers next week.

Other Victorian electoral news:

• A bill to re-establish a campaign finance regime was passed last week, after the relevant parts of the Electoral Act were struck down wholesale by the High Court in April. The bill restores various aspects of the old system, though not the one that prompted the court ruling, namely the exemption of the major parties’ investment funds from a $4950 cap on political donations over a four-year electoral cycle. It increases the cap to $7500, and also increases annual “administrative expenditure” funding (as distinct from the public election funding based on how many votes a party or candidate receives) from a maximum $1.775 million to $2.765 million. The donation cap is doubled for new candidates and parties and set at a transitional $10,000 for the current cycle. The Greens argued the donation cap down from $10,000 in agreeing to a deal with Labor that froze out the Coalition, who wanted it much higher. The Liberals are particularly aggrieved because the High Court ruling has cut them off from a major source of their funding.

• Merri-bek councillor Katerine Theodosis is Labor’s candidate to succeed the retiring Danny Pearson in Essendon. The Australian’s Victoria Ink column reported in late April that Theodosis was assured of the backing of the national executive after winning the support of the Right faction Australian Workers Union, and that the resulting fait accompli was inflaming resentment among local members already aggrieved by the circumstances in which Jo Briskey succeeded Bill Shorten in the federal seat of Maribyrnong. Pearson appeared to associate himself with Daniel White, a former staffer to Bill Shorten and rival aspirant for the AWU’s support.

• Labor’s new candidate for South Barwon is Rebecca Thistleton, a former Australian Financial Review journalist and state government media adviser who ran unsuccessfully in Melbourne in 2022. The seat’s incumbent is Darren Cheeseman, who was required to resign from the Labor party room in April 2024. Elsewhere, the difficult task of defending a 0.4% margin in Pakenham upon the retirement of Emma Vulin falls to Alessandra Soliven, a 23-year-old Philippines-born former electorate officer and Australian Services Union organiser; and a 0.3% margin in neighbouring Bass will be defended by Chris Buckingham, a gender equity training facilitator with Gippsland Women’s Health, following the retirement of Jordan Crugnale.

• Labor’s candidate for Brunswick is Gabriel Steger, an adviser to federal Cooper MP Ged Kearney, whom the Brunswick Voice reports was preselected unopposed. The seat will be vacated with the retirement of two-term Greens member Tim Read, and as with other Greens-held seats, it will be easier for Labor to win if the Liberals revert to putting the Greens last on their how-to-vote cards, a practice they departed from in 2022.

• The Liberal candidate for Ashwood is former Monash councillor Theo Zographos, who was cast aside in favour of the late Katie Allen as the party’s candidate for the federal seat of Chisholm after Allan’s former seat of Higgins was abolished. Other Liberal candidates for Labor-held seats include Paul Byrnes, a public service legal officer and former staffer to Matthew Bach and Mary Wooldridge, in Eltham; Clare Fitzmaurice, policy adviser to federal MP Anne Webster, in Monbulk; Bass Coast mayor Rochelle Halstead in Bass; David Kitchen, finance manager for a food processing company, in Bayswater; Steve Martin, an engineering manager who ran for the federal seat of Indi in 2019, in Benambra; and Max Williams, owner of a boutique communications consultancy, in Rowville.

• There have been recent retirement announcements from Tim Bull of the Nationals after 16 years as member for Gippsland East, and Gary Maas of Labor after eight years in Narre Warren South.

• The Australian’s Victoria Ink column reports Merri-bek councillor and former mayor Oscar Yildiz, who polled 23.5% as an independent in Pascoe Vale in 2018, is “preparing to launch an independent bid for Essendon”.

• One Nation is yet to announce any candidates, but has declared itself intent on contesting every seat.

Newspoll: Labor 30, One Nation 31, Coalition 18 (open thread)

Another pollster finds One Nation surging to a primary vote lead, and Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings continuing to sag.

Newspoll in The Australian becomes the latest pollster to have One Nation leading on the primary vote, recording a four-point surge to 31% with Labor down one to 30%, the Coalition down two to 18% and the Greens down one to 11%. Anthony Albanese records his worst net leadership rating to date, with approval down four to 36% and disapproval up three to 60%, while Angus Taylor is down one on approval to 35% and down three on disapproval to 45%. Albanese’s lead on preferred prime minister is in from 46-38 to 44-38. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1240.

Federal polls: YouGov and Roy Morgan (open thread)

Two more pollsters find One Nation yielding the fruits of a post-budget backlash, with the Coalition sinking ever further.

The fortnightly YouGov Sky News Pulse poll joins RedBridge Group and DemoAU in recording a primary vote lead for One Nation, who have surged four points in the second such poll since the budget to 29%, with Labor down two for the second fortnight in a row, to 26%. The Coalition has more than lost the two-point gain it made in the post-budget poll, being down three to 20%, while the Greens are steady on 13%. Two-party measures have Labor leading One Nation 52.5-47.5, in from 53-47, and the Coalition 51.5-48.5, in from 52-48.

Anthony Albanese has taken a hit on his personal ratings, down three on approval to 34% and up four on disapproval to 60%. He holds a 47-41 lead over Pauline Hanson on preferred prime minister, in from 50-38, and 41-39 over Angus Taylor, in from 41-38. Forty-six per cent of all respondents said they believed the Coalition and One Nation should work together to form government with 31% opposed, breaking down to 45% and 28% among Coalition voters and 53% and 25% among One Nation voters. The poll was conducted last Tuesday through to yesterday from a sample of 1471.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has One Nation drawing level with Labor on the primary vote at 27%, with Labor down half a point and One Nation up one-and-a-half, with the Coalition down three to 20% and the Greens steady on 13.5%. Labor’s lead over One Nation on respondent-allocated two-party preferred is unchanged at 53.5-46.5; against the Coalition, Labor’s lead improves from 53-47 to 55.5-44.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, and from 52-48 to 53.5-46.5 on previous election flows. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1542.

Federal polls: RedBridge Group and Fox & Hedgehog (open thread)

One new poll finds One Nation racing to an unprecedented primary vote lead, though another doesn’t go quite so far.

A new poll from RedBridge Group/Accent Research for the Financial Review is the strongest yet for One Nation from any pollster, recording a four-point increase on last month’s result to 31%. This puts them well clear of Labor, who are down three to 28%, and particularly the Coalition, who are down two to 20%, while the Greens are down a point to 12%. Respondent-allocated two-party measures have Labor with leads of 51-49 over both One Nation and the Coalition, which are respectively in from 55-45 and 54-46 last time.

Anthony Albanese’s combined very favourable and mostly favourable rating is down five to 29%, with unfavourable and very unfavourable up five to 48%, and neither down two to 18%. Pauline Hanson is steady on 40% positive, down one to 40% negative and down one to 14% neutral. Angus Taylor is up one to 21% positive, up three to 25% negative and down four to 23% neutral. Whereas Albanese and Hanson have near total name recognition, 21% say they have never heard from Taylor, down only one on last month. Jim Chalmers’ positive rating is down five to 17% and his negative rating is up eight to 35%. A three-way preferred prime minister question has Anthony Albanese down two to 31%, Pauline Hanson up two to 25% and Angus Taylor steady on 14%. Questions on the budget have 23% rating it good for the country as a whole and 53% bad, with 11% saying it would be good for them personally and 48% bad. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1005.

Also just out is a Fox & Hedgehog poll in the News Corp tabloids, which has Labor on 29% (down a point on the last such poll in late March), One Nation on 27% (up four) and the Coalition on 25% (up two), with no result provided in the report for the Greens (UPDATE: Down three to 10%). Respondent-allocated two-party preferred results have the Coalition leading Labor 51-49, reversing the result from the last poll, and Labor leading One Nation 54-46, in from 56-44. The poll also finds 40% agreeing that Pauline Hanson and One Nation are ready for government, with 45% disagreeing. The sample for the poll was 1700, with field work dates not disclosed – hopefully more detail will be provided shortly by the pollster.

UPDATE: Full report from Fox & Hedgehog here. Angus Taylor notably holds a lead on 38-36 lead over Anthony Albanese on preferred prime minister, after Albanese led 39-35 in late March. Albanese is down one on approval to 29%, steady on 19% neutral and up two on disapproval to 51%; Taylor is up five on approval to 29%, down two on neutral to 32% and up five on disapproval to 29% (“never heard of” is down from 18% to 10%). A hypothetical question inclusive of a teal party had it on 6%, with Labor three points to lower at 26%, the Greens one point lower at 9% and the others essentially unchanged. Voluminous further questions on the budget include an overall finding of 19% favourable, 47% unfavourable and 25% neutral. Thirty-two per cent said they had seen the much-hyped social media memes on the budget tax policies, with 60% saying they had not.

Federal polls: Roy Morgan and Essential Research (open thread)

Strong support for Angus Taylor’s promises on immigration show no sign of translating into improved support for the Coalition relative to One Nation.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor down two points to 27.5%, the Coalition down one to 23%, One Nation up one to 25.5% and the Greens up two to 13.5%. Labor’s two-party lead over the Coalition on respondent-allocated preferences is in from 54-46 to 53-47. A Labor-versus-One Nation result has the former leading 53.5-46.5 – I believe we may be getting this in future instead of the Labor-versus-Coalition result based on previous election preference flows. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from 1613.

Also just out is the monthly Essential Research poll, which has Labor down a point to 29%, the Coalition down one to 23%, One Nation (who have either improved or held steady in every monthly result from this series since March last year) up three to 28% and the Greens steady on 11%, with the undecided component down a point to 4%. The pollster’s respondent-allocated 2PP+ measure, which has been weaker for Labor than other pollster’s two-party measures, has Labor in front for the first time since December, the 48-47 result (the balance being undecided) comparing with 49-47 to the Coalition last month. However, personal ratings for Anthony Albanese are his worst yet from this series, his approval down four to 37% and disapproval up three to 54%, and the regular national mood result has a two-point drop in “right direction” to 28% and a four-point increase in “wrong track” to 58%, the worst result since Labor came to power.

Twenty-five per cent expressed approval of the budget with 39% disapproving and 24% neutral, which is at the better end of comparable results in post-budget polling. As in other such polling, responses to its most contentious measures was more positive: winding back negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount on property was supported by 33% and opposed by 27%, with 26% neutral; and tax changes on shares and investments were supported by 32% and opposed by 29%, with 26% neutral. However, only 26% supported the changes on trusts, with 38% opposed. Twenty-eight per cent thought the housing system would be more fair for young people, 30% thought less fair and 22% felt it would make no difference.

The immigration policies announced by Angus Taylor in his budget reply speech found strong support, with 58% in favour of capping immigration to the number of new house builds and 14% opposing, and 57% in favour of limiting welfare to Australian citizens, with 19% opposed. The report in The Guardian relates that the sample size was 1027; it was conducted, I assume, from last Wednesday to this Monday. The full report should be on the pollster’s website later today.

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