The Sydney Morning Herald reports Resolve Strategic’s latest bi-monthly read on state voting intention in New South Wales, combining results from its last two regular monthly national polls, has Labor up two points on July-August to 32%, the Coalition down one to 37% and the Greens down one to 11%. This suggests a very slight two-party advantage to Labor, which won on that measure by 54.3-45.7 at the March 2023 election. Chris Minns leads Mark Speakman 37-14 as preferred premier, barely changed from 38-13 last time. The poll was conducted from a sample of 1111, half from September 3 to 7 and the other half last Tuesday to Saturday.
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of New South Wales. The main thread for general discussion is here.
If this was the final outcome in 2027, NSW Parliament could be a real mess. Say
L/NP 40
ALP 39
GRN 3
IND 11
This would be one of the first truly unworkable parliaments in Australian history. I don’t even know who would form government on these numbers.
Chris Minns should spend less time on 2GB and working on his next corporate career move and actually start governing for the people of NSW. At this point I’m not certain that Minns wants a second term. Just a thought.
3 years to go so poll results if accurate don’t matter
This poll result is largely influenced by federal factors, the Albanese Government aren’t tracking well in NSW.
Yes, Minns is a very conservative Labor leader, and he definitely targets 2GB listeners(a regular weekly spot with Ben Fordham) and Daily Telegraph readers, but so did Bob Carr back in the 90s and early 2000s.
The problem for this relatively new government is that the cabinet contains relatively few good performers – only Ryan Park and John Graham and Daniel Mookey stand out for me.
NSW Labor MPs are now openly and anonymously criticising Minns.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/oct/09/nsw-labor-mp-accuses-premier-of-incredibly-dangerous-stance-on-protests-ntwnfb
Interesting- Muslim candidates would be much more damaging to State Labor in South West Sydney due to OPV.
Perhaps by 2027 the anger may have died down.
Minns will be fine. He wins a popularity contest over Speako every day of the week and the Libs have no viable alternative.
Its funny the ALP members are criticizing Minns for not want to waste money on policing the rebellious children of merchant bankers. Why should hard working blue collar workers pay to be inconvenienced by, the lazy unemployed/students, mostly the children of wealth families who can afford to indulge their entitled lifestyle.
There has been a trend of disappointing polls for NSW state Labor for a while now. That’s despite Minns being miles ahead of Speakman as preferred premier, so you’d have to think federal drag is a factor.
There was a comment that these poll numbers would lead to an unworkable parliament. Why? The Minns government is already a minority government, and that seems to work OK on the floor of the parliament. The previous Perrottet government was also a minority government. I quite like minority governments. The adversarial nature of traditional Australian politics, IMO, is a big factor in Australian governments being unable to make difficult decisions and to go against vested interests, and having independents have a role in government can help counter that.
@Newcastle Moderate
The efficacy of minority government depends on the nature of the crossbench. If they are reasonable negotiators then it isn’t necessarily bad, but if they are combative then that makes governing harder. A scenario such as the one I summarised also causes the government to lose legitimacy as it is no longer clear which major party has the right to be in government and provide a Premier and Cabinet.
Look at Wikipedia re the.marginal alp held seats…the last 4 I 5hink had double digital swings at the 2023 election