Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition (open thread)

Marginal changes on the primary vote prove sufficient to give the Coalition a two-party lead in Newspoll for the first time this term.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll records a two-party lead for the Coalition for the first time since this term, at 51-49 after a 50-50 result three weeks ago, though both major parties are unchanged on the primary vote, Labor at 31% and the Coalition at 38%. The movement is down to a one-point drop for the Greens to 12% and a one-point increase for One Nation to 7%. Anthony Albanese is down three on approval to 40% and up three on disapproval to 54%, edging out past results in August (41% and 54%) and last November (40% and 53%) as his worst net result for the term. Peter Dutton is respectively up one to 38% and steady at 52%, with preferred prime minister narrowing from 46-37 to 45-37. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1258.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,879 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition (open thread)”

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  1. Boris Johnson believes France could and should one day join the AUKUS nuclear submarine pact between Australia, the UK and US because it is a Pacific power and part of “the great Western alliance” structure, and already collaborates with the UK on nuclear technology.
    “AUKUS is an amazing thing because it shows the political, strategic, emotional closeness of Australia, the UK and the US, and their willingness to share the most secret details of nuclear technology,” the former UK prime minister told The Australian in an exclusive interview. “France has always been outside that with the force de frappe (nuclear deterrence force) and so on. They’ve always had a different approach. But there are things that we do together with the French on nuclear technology … that we share with France. “Maybe one day France could be involved. France is a Pacific power, has been for a long time, and there’s no reason in principle (why not). But at the moment it is, no question, it is an Anglosphere product. That’s what it’s there to do. But it’s not meant to be exclusive or discriminatory or indeed hostile to anybody.”
    In his memoir, Unleashed (HarperCollins), provided to The Australian ahead of its local publication on October 30, the former prime minister (2019-22) describes himself as a principal architect of AUKUS and “matchmaker” between Australia and the US at the G7 summit in June 2021. “It is about much more than building new submarines together,” he writes. “It is about collaboration in hypersonics, AI, quantum – and, frankly, it is the sort of project the French should be involved in. Maybe, one day, they will join.” Mr Johnson reveals the Morrison government initially proposed an Australia-UK-built submarine using Rolls-Royce nuclear propulsion without any US involvement, and did not seek US collaboration.

  2. Mineral Resources boss Chris Ellison has apologised in the wake of allegations regarding his tax affairs, saying there was a “serious lapse of judgement.” Mr Ellison issued a personal statement on Sunday responding to an article published in The Australian Financial Review claiming the mining magnate had “evaded tax for years” by using elaborate corporate structures domiciled offshore.
    MinRes — the iron ore and lithium business he founded — listed on the ASX in 2006 and has since swelled to a market capitalisation of more than $9 billion.
    Responding to media claims, Mr Ellison said the company had been established with the merger and public listing of “several private proprietary limited companies” operated by him and business partners. “More than 20 years ago, and prior to MinRes’ listing, we also operated entities overseas for acquiring mining equipment and parts to import into Australia and on sell. Some equipment, prior to MinRes’ listing, was sold to our then-privately owned Australian businesses,” Mr Ellison said in the statement. “Regrettably, revenue generated by the overseas entities that we were beneficiaries of was not disclosed to the Australian Taxation Office at that time. This was a poor decision and a serious lapse of judgement.” Mr Ellison said he had since “voluntarily disclosed these matters to the ATO in full.”“All outstanding tax, penalties and interest that should otherwise have been paid by me has been fully repaid, and the matter has been settled with the ATO. These circumstances have also been disclosed to the MinRes Board. “I deeply regret and apologise for these actions, and have since ensured that I have put the matter right with the ATO.”
    A separate statement signed off by MinRes chair James McClements said the board had engaged external legal counsel to investigate the matter. The note said the board had “full confidence in Mr Ellison and his leadership”.
    https://thewest.com.au/business/ceos/serious-lapse-of-judgement-minres-boss-chris-ellison-sorry-amid-tax-evasion-allegations-c-16458129

  3. Kirsdarke:

    Sunday, October 20, 2024 at 9:04 pm

    [‘Speaking of Camilla, I just love her portrayal in The Windsors.’]

    Me too. Unfortunately, the actor who played her, Haydn Gwynne, died a year ago today.

  4. When you’re the king, you get to decide stuff even if your mum mightn’t have liked it.

    The Queen is dead. Long live the King.

  5. [‘The global failure of the decades-long war on drugs has resulted in a myriad of issues for jurisdictions that continue to plough resources into enforcement and retain a model which sees addiction as a criminal law problem rather than a health issue – from spending large sums of money on policing, court time and imprisonment, to increased violent crime associated with the black market drug trade, to endangering the lives of users through enabling the supply of unregulated substances, to stigmatiing and alienating users and thereby dissuading them from seeking treatment, to the associated health costs including transmission of communicable diseases such as HIV.

    Jurisdictions that have moved towards a regulated market have, on the other hand, invariably seen enormous economic, social and health benefits – both for individuals and communities, all the while not seeing an increase in the use of previously criminalised substances.’]

    https://www.sydneycriminallawyers.com.au/blog/moving-away-from-war-against-drugs-brings-enormous-benefits/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=week-43

  6. mj
    If the Greens win the seat of Perth it will be an astounding event. The seat is more likely to go Liberal before the Greens get the slightest sniff.
    But keep dreaming them dreams and keep them Green second preferences rolling in.
    Think I had this conversation with you some weeks ago…but just in case you missed it first time around, here it is again.

  7. A Telethon!
    Do any other cities still do this?
    Takes me back to when TV closed at 10 pm after a full 8 hours and transmission always ended with the Queen at the trooping of the colours while the national anthem played:
    https://youtu.be/KeJ-z0-RTmI?si=nWi6vGNb2eoCAwrD

    The Telethon was something to look forward to as the Telly stayed on all night!
    (Do they still turn the street lights in Perth at 11pm?)

  8. Tricot the Greens are definitely a better chance than the Liberals in Perth, they’re not winning with Dutton as leader. Weak local MP, rapid demographic shifts, Labor set to fall back to the pack. Labor would probably need to finish 3rd for the Greens to win on their preferences, unlikely but not an inconceivable scenario either.

  9. Mavissays:
    Sunday, October 20, 2024 at 10:49 pm
    I wonder whether any of those enthusiastically greeting Charles in Sydney today are aware that a few month after Whitlam’s dismissal he sent a letter of comfort to Kerr:

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/oct/24/prince-charless-letter-to-john-kerr-reportedly-endorsing-sacking-of-whitlam-condemned

    Charles is as devious as the rest of “The Firm.” The problem is, he now wears the Crown.
    ——————
    That letter would be a bigger issue if it was Charles writing to Kerr before the dismissal encouraging him to sack Whitlam because that would be interfering in Australian politics but that letter was written after it.

  10. Unions put Crisafulli on notice: $1bn election-eve pay fight
    Queensland’s top union leader has warned the would-be premier an incoming LNP government faces strike action if it doesn’t deliver more than $1bn in unbudgeted pay rises to nurses, teachers and police.

    Started even before he’s elected. Campbell Newman the second.

  11. Bizzcan says:
    Sunday, October 20, 2024 at 10:44 pm
    Someone will have to explain this “Greens takeover of Perth” theses, given most of the progressive/Greens oriented media I’ve seen have held nothing but scorn for the place.

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2024/05/10/anthony-albanese-gas-future-fossil-fuels-western-australia-queensland/

    Do the WA Greens support the 70c in the dollar floor on GST allocations?

    ————

    I haven’t suggested a Greens takeover of Perth, have only stated that the Greens have put the seat of Perth on their list of target seats which presumably means a full blown campaign this time around. Sneering publications like Crikey see WA as a mythical faraway land filled with hicks with a hard on for fossil fuels and Gina they have no idea what’s going on here.

    The WA Greens appear to support a GST floor the amount is not mentioned in their policy but I doubt any WA based candidate who has a hope of winning is going to argue against 70c per $:

    “ reform the Commonwealth Grants Commission to provide for greater simplicity, predictability and transparency, and a floor for the return of GST receipts to reduce volatility in state revenues”

    https://greens.org.au/wa/policies/economics

  12. “ Are you a shoppie supporter Eddy?”

    Been There, what I am is a proud South Australian Labor supporter, have been since Dunstan. And I am a big Peter Malinauskas fan – the best Labor leader in this Federation of States by a country mile. The rest of the country can look on and weep.

    Joe Bullock is gone.

    Joe de Bruyn is gone.

    The conservative social agenda is gone.

    They are the past. Premier Peter Malinauskas is the now.

    ‘Malinauskas worked for Woolworths for seven years from 1995 at age 15, first as a trolley boy and later a checkout operator and night filler. He formed an early and enduring political relationship with Don Farrell through Woolworths workers’ unionism. During his time at Woolworths, Malinauskas obtained a Bachelor of Commerce at the University of Adelaide. He became an influential union official who served from 2008 to 2015 as Secretary of the South Australian/Northern Territory branch of the Shop, Distributive and Allied Employees’ Association’

    And the future is Josh Peak. The Secretary of the “shoppies” union, who has been elected as president of the Australian Labor Party in South Australia. Josh Peak, who started working at Foodland when he was 15, became a SDA organiser, served on the Australian Council of Trade Unions Executive from 2009-2015 and is a member of the Australian Labor Party National Executive.

    The SDA is South Australia’s biggest and most powerful union.
    And they are the largest private sector trade union in Australia with over 200,000 members. And that’s just how it is.

  13. Diogenes, from Murdoch’s Advertiser:

    “ The latest figures showed a dramatic decrease in ramping hours, but Premier Peter Malinauskas said he would not “claim victory prematurely”. New figures have revealed a significant decrease in the number of hours wasted due to ambulance ramping, but Premier Peter Malinauskas conceded there is still “a long way to go” to fix the issue. The new data showed ambulances spent 41 per cent fewer hours on the ramp in September (3106 hours) compared with August (5284 hours). It also represents a 44 per cent reduction in ramping compared with figures from July, when it was at a record high of 5539 hours, which was the first time it had broken the 5000 hours mark and smashed May’s record of 4773. “We’re not getting ahead of ourselves and we’re not claiming victory prematurely,” Mr Malinauskas said. “We’re getting on with the task.” At the Queen Elizabeth Hospital, where 67 new beds recently opened, ramping decreased by 49 per cent from August to September. In July, the new BRIGHT Woodville avoidance hub, based at the QEH’s old emergency department, was opened. Since then, more than 1300 South Australians have avoided unnecessary visits to the emergency department. At the Lyell McEwin Hospital, where 48 beds opened six weeks ago, ramping reduced by 42 per cent. The Flinders Medical Centre recorded a 35 per cent reduction in ramping hours, its best September result in four years. Health Minister Chris Picton said the government is “building and opening every bed that we can” to address ramping.”

    I hope that helps.

  14. Eddy, I’m glad to hear there’s slightly less of a catholic grip on my industry, but you can’t excuse the behaviour of the SDA. (Whether incompetence, or actively colluding with the company, where the fuck is our payrise?)

    And I’m using personal pronouns because this is my job. The new, pathetic, EBA for all Woolworths workers doesn’t even get us a payrise. Almost two years late, with a one-off rise to prevent our rate from going below the award rate, and all they can get us is “we’ll see what we can get out of FWC each year”. (Oh, and they gave us a few gift cards.) This is why RAFFWU is trying to organise, although it’s difficult with a default “union” favoured by the company and such a highly casualised workforce. The vote for the new EBA would usually have a YES vote above 90%… this one was about 62%. It got through, but with a lot of anger that nobody involved gets to ignore for too much longer. It’s been a long time since you saw supermarket workers go on strike, but it may happen soon. Watch out, Amanda.

  15. My wife and I stopped watching ABC news years ago when they decided to go “All Commercial”, emulating the three commercial TV networks – and their recruiting of right wing hacks from Sky/Fox News – such as Spiers, Karvellas et el.
    We mostly watch SBS, for their news current affairs and international dramas.
    Imagine our disgust, last night, when the lead story concerned a pair of elderly English holiday makers going to church.
    FFS – don’t they have churches in the UK, anymore?

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