Following a week in which abortion unexpectedly took centre stage of the Queensland election campaign, The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column reports the issue “has helped Labor’s cause in Brisbane, where it faces losses to the LNP and the Greens”. The evidence for this would appear to be Labor internal polling suggesting Grace Grace is well placed to retain the Greens target of McConnel, outpolling them 27% to 24% with the LNP on 34%. This is quite a bit different from polling the column published from a different source last week, which had the Greens on 37.9%, the LNP on 27.4% and Labor on 27.2%. A “senior Labor insider” is further quoted saying a party that feared a near wipeout regionally, leaving it only with Gladstone outside of Brisbane, now sees “glimmers of hope in Cairns, Rockhampton and Maryborough”.
The other big event for the week was the closure of nominations and ballot paper draws, revealing a decline in the total number of candidates to 525 (5.6%) from 597 (6.4%) in 2020. A breakdown from Antony Green shows Labor, the LNP, the Greens and One Nation are contesting all seats, Family First is putting in its biggest effort in some time with 59 candidates, with lesser numbers from Legalise Cannabis, Katter’s Australian Party, Animal Justice and the Libertarians.
Also of note: the website Australian Election Forecasts, operating off an admittedly shallow pool of data, calculates an 85.8% chance the LNP will have a “clear path to government” compared with 4.4% for Labor, the median predicted outcome being 55 seats for the LNP, 29 for Labor, three each for the Greens and Katter’s Australian Party and one independent.
Those numbers are less bad than might have been a few weeks ago.
Deep down, a lot of people feel dirty about voting for the LNP – they can pretend it’s ok when Crisafulli uses the euphemism “youth crime”, but once it’s “skinny ankled kids” and “untouchables” you can’t keep pretending it isn’t about courting the racist cooker vote.
I’m reading the Courier Mail YouGov breakdown and they’ve got a more meaningful region crosstab than the Redbridge poll.
Inner Metro, Outer Metro, Coastal, Regional and Rural. I still would need to consult their methodology to figure out what places they’ve designated as each of these regions. But I’m assuming coastal is probably Gold Coast + Sunshine Coast.
The Coastal primary vote for LNP is a blow-out at almost 50%. Gold Coast Labor have been maintaining kayfabe up until now, spinning that they expect swings to them that put Coomera, Theodore, Mermaid Beach, Burleigh and Currumbin in contention. This poll might dispel this facade.
Coastal could also include Keppel and Hervey Bay.
Rural would be everything outside of cities, regional would be Cairns, Townsville, Mackay, Rocky, Gladstone, Bundy, Maryborough, Toowoomba.
Miles on the front page of the Courier today, they haven’t given up, too bad no one under 50 reads newspapers.
Abortion is box office poison for the LNP, if Labor can keep pushing the line that LNP has a secret abortion agenda and it takes hold, it could turn to ashes for Crisafulli.
Miles appears to be performing better than many expected. But whether this translates to Votes for Labor is not showing up in the opinion polls. Primary would have to be mid-30s to be competitive. But current polling suggests Seat Count of maybe 30+… this would br a good result.
If Labor can keep pushing the LNP Abortion isssue -as @Badthinker asserts – it could go pearshaped for the LNP. Perhaps not enough to prevent them from winning – but a smaller majorty.
Using the courier mail categories as is:
Can someone tell me the figures for each
Thanks
Some one made a statement that Jack Duggan was paid $4000 by Ampol in 1957
This would have been
2000 pounds then.
I can see nothing about it anywhere…. just a rumour?
Duggan did resign the alp leadership in 1966 because he had taxation troubles. Re classification from I think Share invester to something like professional share trader .
8,000 pounds. Front page of the Courier in 1966.
From Ampol.
In 1957.
LOTO, he resigned from Parliament.
Later Mayor of Toowoomba.
Pat Mackie was another one, led a 12 month strike at Mt Isa,
Courier Mail published details from his Bank A/C;
MIM had been paying him the entire time.
Base mineral prices were in the doldrums at the time, MIM had stockpiles.
Good ol’ Pat left Mt Isa shortly afterwards, went to Sydney, Labor Hero to his dying day, lived another 44 years.
As I say, there’s been a few.
To give you an idea of what 8,000 pounds was worth in 1957, my parents built a 3 bedroom family home that year, cost 2,100 guineas.
Labor preferencing Legalise Cannabis over Greens in 28 of 29 Seats.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-19/queensland-election-labor-legalise-cannabis-greens-lnp/104476282
Miles isn’t going to die wondering.
I sense Labor is doing much better in Brisbane than at the start of the campaign and might have a good chance of retaining some seats which 4 weeks ago looked gone, however they look stuffed in the outer metropolitan fringe/Gold Coast/Sunshine Coast/regional Qld.
So Miles might be able to eke out for them a respectable loss, and they have a decent base to rebuild from for 2028.
The more I see of David Crisafulli, the more he comes across to me as a dodgy used car salesman, whereas Miles for all his gawkiness seems like a genuine sort of bloke who has tried to differentiate himself from the previous Premier.
As a gawky sort of bloke myself, I identify hard with Miles and his awkward little moments eg. during the debate when he walked off the wrong way. It’s kind of the opposite of what we’d traditionally call ‘resonating’ but it resonated with me.
Steven Miles is getting praise from even the staunch LNP backers Courier Mail for giving this campaign a red hot crack. He was given a difficult hand, that there are some wondering if Peter Beattie is right. That he should have been given more time. The Hayden Johnson article is interesting and makes some key points.
– Miles shouldn’t be completely ruled out returning as opposition leader if Labor loses which is likely.
– LNP has no alternative as leader if David Crisafulli loses next Saturday. Johnson suggests Sam O’Connor and Laura Gerber are two elections away. That point may be a slap in the face to Jarrod Bleijie- but realistically Bleijie screwed up so badly as Attorney-General under Newman (Bikie Laws, Tim Carmody), he’s lucky he’s even deputy.
– Labor and LNP think Michael Healy will holds Cairns.
– Labor think Bart Mellish is a 50-50 chance to hold Aspley.
– Katter’s Australian Party could be a chance in Cook.
– Rising star Labor minister Meaghan Scanlon losing Gaven would be tough for Labor. I think she’s probably gone, but its also probably a seat Labor can’t rely on if someone wanted to be future leader. It’s based in ultra conservative Gold Coast.
https://x.com/jackhigh4/status/1847144096974229589
Are there any mainstream parties that take Australia’s independence of 1986 seriously?
Some major parties are heading for less than a third of the PV. Perhaps a mainstream party is one that is part of a Noalition/ alliance to form gov.
Or a mainstream party is one that passes an electoral threshold of number of votes?
Meanwhile, governance in terms of powershift rather than climate, inequality, health … has resulted in Australia being:
A target for Pine Gap.
A target for Port of Darwin NT.
A target for RAAF Tindal.
A target for $$Ns, WA’s Stirling plus …
A target for siding with colonising settlers.
…
Mick Quinlivan it would be nice to have the geographical break ups for primary votes but they are still paywalled
@dw
Yes I agree even if the courier mail has mislabelled categories it will give some possible information.
Eg provincial cities must include Rockhampton. Mackay Townsville Cairns Toowoomba etc
Gents,
Here are the full breakdowns.
RURAL:
ALP: 22
LNP 46
ONP: 16
GRN: 4
KAP: 5
COASTAL (ie: the Gold and Sunshine Coasts)
ALP: 29
LNP: 48
GRN: 10
ON: 8
KAP: 0
REGIONAL QLD:
* ALP 27
* LNP 41
* GRN 11
* ON 15
* KAP 2
OUTER METRO BRISBANE:
* ALP 35
* LNP 39
* GRN 10
* ON 11
* KAP 0
INNER METRO BRISBANE:
* ALP 38
* LNP 34
* GRN 22
* ON 4
* KAP 0
KAP 5% in rural Qld, let’s say that’s 20 seats, doesn’t translate into any seats for the KAP.