Some accounts of private polling from Queensland to relate, all of it adding a picture of an election-losing swing headed the way of the Labor government:
• The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column relates that union-funded polling by DemosAU has the Greens on 37.9% in the Labor-held Brisbane CBD seat of McConnel, up from 28.1% in 2020, with the LNP on 27.4%, down from 31.0%, and Labor on 27.2%, down from 35.3%. The suggests Labor separately has an even chance of surviving to the final count and winning when it gets there with the help of LNP preferences. The polling also suggests a 10% swing statewide and a Labor seat tally of 31 out or 93.
• Last week’s Feeding the Chooks column had Labor sources saying their polling showed Health Minister Shannon Fentiman facing a 13% swing in Waterford, where her margin is 16.0%. The report noted “confusion about who commissioned the dire phone poll by Labor’s preferred pollsters Talbot Mills (business partners with banned lobbyists Evan Moorhead and Fentiman’s ex-husband David Nelson), but the smart money is on the MP’s own union, the AMWU”.
• Madura McCormack of the Courier-Mail reported on Thursday that a Greens-commissioned YouGov poll had Labor on 31% in Brisbane and the Greens on 16%. Assuming this is Brisbane broadly defined, it suggests a fifteen-point drop in Labor support from 2020 and a three-point increase for the Greens. The poll also found the Greens on 13% statewide, compared with 9.5% in 2020, and 54% support for its proposed cap on rental increases, with the report neglecting to say how many were opposed and how many undecided.
• Katter’s Australian Party has announced it will direct preferences to the LNP over Labor in the three Townsville seats of Townsville, Mundingburra and Thuringowa, which it has apparently never done in the city before, citing Labor failure on youth crime.
• The campaign leaders’ debate was conducted on Thursday, highlighted by David Crisafulli’s promise to stand down if crime victim numbers did not fall on his watch. There did not appear to be any effort to evaluate voter impressions of who had won.
“Queensland is not a natural fit for Labor, particularly the left faction, which is so dominant in the state and federally, currently. I think we should expect the LNP to dominate Queensland at a state level for some time, similar to the dominance at a federal level. ”
@The Wombat
Simple minded nonsense. State politics voters view issues more prominently as health and education which is where Labor polls better. Federally voters view issues more prominently such as immigration and economic management which the Liberals poll better. Labor Premiers in Queensland are more centre then their federal counterparts whether the Left faction has the numbers in Labor or not. Just to dismiss the last 30 years of dominace of Labor in Queensland, as Labor not being ‘a natural fit’ is pretty lame.
@Wombat – what leads you to say regional Queensland is permanently gone?
A few posts ago I said I didn’t think it was and your immediately follow up was “Joel, I agree with you”
I grew up 30minutes outside of Rockhampton, so have some connection with the area, but am too much of a homebody to have much of a bead on how people are feeling, electorally.
Joel, I agreed there was a possibility the LNP may fall to make improvements in service delivery in regional Queensland, which could result in very blue collar, traditional unionised and labour policy oriented populations in the big mining regional centres moving back to the ALP. This happened with Campbell Newman and is overlooked as a damaging part of his legacy for the LNP. Newman was more Brisbane-centric than the ALP, the big regional centres did very poorly under him. I doubt Crisafulli will make the same mistake, but he may. We’ll see.
Broadly, what I’m saying is that traditional blue collar voting has shifted strongly to the conservative side of the political spectrum, which is happening across the western world. And people in regional areas, but also outer metro areas are going to be voting for the LNP on delivery of public services. Any time people are voting for the LNP for publuc education and hospitals, you know Labor is in really big trouble.
I see the left wing media is desperately trying to make abortion an issue in the Queensland election. Despite the Opposition leader stating nothing is going to change- they dredge up anything that they can to scare the public.
FUBAR Say’s
Despite the Opposition leader stating nothing is going to change, ????
The LNP will always change their mind , after, they are not to be trusted !.
Queenslanders should remember the last Newman attempt at running the State !!!!!
Looks like this latest abortion fiasco will peel off some of the female vote for the LNP and will probably save Labor some seats in Brisbane.
Crisafulli is getting wedged hard on abortion as KAP promised abortion bill “as soon as you like”. Refusing to say whether he will grant conscience vote, we know how this will end once they will be elected. And we haven’t even heard yet from Mandy Jane, who was a few years ago participating in pro-life rallies.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/oct/09/queensland-state-election-abortion-rights-lnp-policy-law-changes-ntwnfb
Not much love for the LNP amongst the Katter party. I know they supported the ALP in the first AP minority government. Mr Crisifulli wants to slip in on the crime and punishment agenda,he doesn’t want anything else to complicate matters. Katter is complicating this strategy for sure.
So why are the Katters to preference the lnp then?
I think maybe they had to lest their voters turn to the LNP or PHON or whatever for not punishing Labor for their ‘Youth Crime Disaster’.
KAP is still going for the Nationals
voters in the bush. They have to get Pawleens voters and take a chunk of the old NP that still don’t accept the Liberals. This anti-abortion push is to show the difference between Libs and Nats and they will further expose which side the National members are on.
Amanda Stoker is pretty right wing and is contesting the L/NP electorate of Oodgeroo. Her view in the Senate and on Sky news suggest she will lead support for KAPs push as will the member for Scenic Rim who sent his position to The Australian the other day to force all this into view.
Might as well put Voluntary Assisted Dying laws in the mix as well, it was legislated a few years ago with widespread opposition.
When Campbell Newman and Crucifooli were in power last time, there was a build up of tension turning into hate within six months of their Govt forming. They sacked thousands of public servants. Outsourced heaps then had to hire consultants at higher salary because everything ground to a halt. Every project and program was scrapped. Newman said – public servants have nothing to fear if we are elected. No bigger lie was spoken in the campaign.
Crucifooli in this election seems to have no enthusiasm for any project that you would call a game changer. His target project dealing with first offending delinquent youth and youth crime is admirable but has all been tried before without long term success. Taking offenders and getting them putting their energy into canoeing and similar ventures is not much different to the boot camps of Newman that were not successful. Cost allocated $50 million. Compare that to Labors renewable energy projects costing over $50 billion. Hundreds of projects letting Qlders feel good about making the planet a better place and reducing their power bill.
That said, 42% will see Labor on the opposition benches by the end of the month.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/oct/09/david-crisafulli-lnp-transgender-queensland-state-election
“Earlier this year, the Christian right faction took control of the LNP’s Griffith FDC – a large party branch in the Greens-held South Brisbane electorate. The veteran anti-abortion activist Alan Baker was elected the chair.”
Griffith recorded one of the highest ‘yes’ votes on the marriage equality referendum. Corrine McMillan, the state member for the overlapping electorate of Mansfield, is famously progressive. I trust that the tide of popular opinion prevails against the regressive right here.
Most abortions these days are non-surgical. Mid-trimester terminations most often involve pregnancies where something has gone wrong with the health of the fetus or the mother, and there are standards around provision of this care. I am so tired of hearing utter nonsense from people who have no idea about the facts around this area of women’s health and who sit at a comfortable distance from the issues until the ball drops and a punitive legislative code adversely affects the mental or physical health of someone they care about. And don’t get me started on the fabulist fantasies of the right around the transgender community.
The RANZCOG’s response to Katter et al: https://ranzcog.edu.au/news/queensland-abortion-bill-amendment/
Yes Warrigal: It looks like we are in for another period of strange and weird government in Qld. The rest of the country thinks we are a like a deep south type American state, it’s time to prove them correct!!!! I think one of the issues is that SEQ is too far away Far Q.
[‘Guardian Australia, amid growing pressure for the LNP leader, David Crisafulli, to clarify the party’s intentions on abortion, voluntary assisted dying and gender issues.’]
But can Crisafulli be trusted on these issues, bearing in mind Queensland has one House & that along with some nutters in the LNP, there’s also the Mad Hatter Party? These matters could prove to be sleeper issues, with memories of the disastrous Newman Government still fresh in the minds of many. The election might not be the blood bath it’s predicted to be.
Does QLD still have “notional electors” giving remote areas more weight?
Warrigal says: Thursday, October 10, 2024 at 6:17 am:
“Corrine McMillan, the state member for the overlapping electorate of Mansfield…”
Only a small north west corner of the Mansfield electorate is within the Griffith boundaries. Probably not much more than 5% and certainly no more than 10% of the electors on the Mansfield roll would would reside there.
The seat has a 6% margin, but will surely be won by the LNP due to the overall swing.
““Corrine McMillan, the state member for the overlapping electorate of Mansfield…”
Only a small north west corner of the Mansfield electorate is within the Griffith boundaries. Probably not much more than 5% and certainly no more than 10% of the electors on the Mansfield roll would would reside there.The seat has a 6% margin, but will surely be won by the LNP due to the overall swing.”
I think Mansfield may be a closer contest then first thought… looking at the signage around the seat – it looks pretty even. Though there is a high Indian population in the seat so the Indian-Born candidate may influence the vote a little.
Let’s hope so Mavis , all along I’ve been staying positive despite all the fact that the LNP is at unbackable odds. My gut feeling that things are different to 2012 are that polls were pretty close up to Xmas . In 2012 the ALP was way behind its entire term. The by elections were bad but there were some factors that contributed to these results that may not be as potent this time. The LNP is putting all its eggs into the crime and punishment basket and as this abortion story is showing ,that’s a potentially dangerous strategy. There are also some very popular measures Labor has instituted and also the fear that the LNP will revert to type over the next four years Cando style. I’m not arguing that the ALP can win just that things will not be a 2012 style wipeout . Perhaps I’m delusional but my tip is Labor in the low 30s seat wise but maybe even higher if the fear of change takes hold. If by some miracle the ALP holds on the LNP could look to Lord Mayor Schrinner for a 2028 run lol
Amjid says: Thursday, October 10, 2024 at 11:14 am:
“I think Mansfield may be a closer contest then first thought… looking at the signage around the seat – it looks pretty even.”
That seems unlikely, I counted 19 LNP to 10 ALP during my bus journey from Westfield Upper Mt Gravatt to the Aminya Street shops earlier today (within the Mansfield boundaries). (Not counting the second signs displayed outside some premises).
I agree, there has been a large influx of Indian families into Mansfield over the past two years, but I have no idea as to how many of them would be entitled to vote, what their usual political leanings are, or how that might be affected by Pinky Singh’s Indian roots.
“Queensland MP Cynthia Lui accused of bullying by staff
Labor MP Cynthia Lui has admitted her electorate office staff have accused her of bullying, making formal complaints to parliament about her behaviour.”
what their usual political leanings are, or how that might be affected by Pinky Singh’s Indian roots.
Pinky Singh ran in an inner suburban seat last time.
Surname indicates Sikhs, they’re concentrated around Runcorn, Sunnybank Hills, Eight Mile Plains, not in Mansfield.
Mick Quinlivansays:
at 10:17 pm
So why are the Katters to preference the lnp then?
Only in the 3 Townsville seats.
Elsewhere it’s seat by seat or split ticket.
Katter is a rogue, he’s never give the LNP a break since he ratted on the NP 25 years ago.
The QLD election campaign has been pretty uninspiring so far. Miles is having lots of trouble trying to remember the names of his team members and Crisafulli sounds like a stuck record “it’s not part of our plan” without providing details of the plan.
Neither leader had given any reason to change what seems to be locked in decisions made months ago.
Davidwh: remembering candidates names is a pretty small thing considering these are people in unwinnable seats like the Sunshine coast, just a bit of gotcha type thing to fill some inches. On the other hand the abortion issue is becoming a biggy. Women I work with are bringing this up so it is resonating. It is uncovering the thin edge of the wedge. The LNP has tried to be the smallest of small targets arguing they will govern better and sort out crime. The crime issue in reality is highly contestable as is health and other areas of complaint. The abortion questions go to the heart of whether we can trust the LNP to govern sensibly and in a modern way or if they’ll return to type and go full tilt Cando Newman style with a good old dose of Christian fundamentalism thrown in. In other words promise one thing and then turn into loony tunes when in control. Miles would be relishing sowing this fear of change and candidates names are likely least of anyone’s concerns.
On the abortion issue with KAP. KAP need to do preference deals with Labor in some seats (Mirani, Hinchinbrook). But they are well aware this can come with a cost on two fronts with the LNP claiming their a pawn for Labor. But also with time for a change factor this election. The LNP will claim the only way to get change is to vote LNP. The LNP ran this very effectively in 2012. Winning battles against KAP in Beaudesert and Nanango.
To combat this KAP is using the abortion issue for two reasons. 1) it wedges the LNP, and 2) as mentioned it reminds that consevative national party where their allegiances align with.
KAP preferencing the LNP in Townsville. Has been done to distance themselves from a Labor government down in the polls and again avoid being labelled as a ‘Labor pawn’ by the LNP. KAP probably also know their not likely in the hunt for those seats this election. And can afford to write those seats off at the potential cost of Labor preferences in those seats.
New thread.