Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential records a widening of Labor’s lead and improved approval ratings for Bill Shorten.

The latest fortnightly poll from Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 52-48, up from 51-49 in the two previous polls. It also features Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which reflect Newspoll’s in being bad news for the goverment, thought not in quite the same way. Where Newspoll had Malcolm Turnbull’s ratings tanking, Essential has him down only one point on approval, to 42%, and up two on disapproval, also to 42%. However, Essential records an improvement in the ratings of Bill Shorten, who is up three on approval to 34% and down three on disapproval to 44%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 41-27, down from 42-25. Further questions relate to drought and climate change, freedom of speech and social media and the Nine takeover of Fairfax, which you can read about at The Guardian – or when Essential publishes its full report later today, which is also when we will get primary vote numbers.

UPDATE: Full results from Essential Research here. The primary votes are Coalition 39% (down two), Labor 37% (up one), Greens 10% (steady) and One Nation 6% (steady). The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1032.

Also, federal voting intention results have now emerged from the YouGov Galaxy poll of Queensland, which have two-party preferred at 50-50, compared with a 52-48 lead to the Coalition in the last such poll in May, and 54.1-45.9 at the election. The primary votes are Coalition 37% (40% in May, 43.2% at the election), Labor 34% (33% and 30.9%), One Nation 10% (10% and 5.5%) and Greens 9% (10% and 8.8%). This poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday last week, from a sample of 839.

Further results from the Newspoll: 55% would favour lifting restrictions on gas exploration if it would mean lower power prices, with 31% opposed; 37% said Malcolm Turnbull and the Coalition would be “best at maintaining Australia’s electricity supply and keeping power prices lower”, compared with 36% for Bill Shorten and Labor; and 63% said the government’s priority should be keeping energy prices down, compared with 26% for meeting greenhouse gas emissions targets and 8% for preventing blackouts.

Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Malcolm Turnbull’s hitherto surging personal ratings take a turn for the worse, as both sides lose ground on the primary vote and two-party preferred remains as was.

The latest Newspoll, courtesy of The Australian, is the fourth in a row to show Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Coalition 37% (down two), Labor 35% (down one), Greens 10% (steady) and One Nation 9% (up two). Malcolm Turnbull’s previously surging personal ratings have collapsed – he is down six on approval 36% and up seven on disapproval to 55%, and his lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 48-29 to 44-32. Bill Shorten is steady on 32% approval, and down one on disapproval to 56%.

YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to Labor in Victoria

Very little in it in the latest state poll from Victoria, as the November 29 election looms ever nearer.

UPDATE: The Herald Sun today has three Victorian state marginal Labor seat polls from YouGov Galaxy, with samples of around 520 each. As with the statewide poll, they find little change on the results from the last election, with Labor leading 54-46 in Eltham (52.7-47.3 at the election) and 53-47 in Cranbourne (52.3-47.7), but trailing 51-49 in Carrum, which was won by a 50.7-49.3 margin in 2014. The Herald Sun also has further results from the state poll: 52% think the state headed in the right direction, compared with 36% for the wrong direction; 34% say the “red shirt rorts” affair made them much less likely to trust the government, 23% a little less likely, and 30% no difference; and 33% said the Coalition’s promise to revive the East West Link project made them more likely to vote Coalition, compared with 16% for less likely and 42% for no difference.

With three and a half months to go before the state election, a YouGov Galaxy poll for the Herald Sun records Labor with a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 38%, Coalition 42%, Greens 10% and One Nation 5%. The Herald Sun report opens by saying Labor leads “despite Victorians believing they are too soft on crime”, and while this may be true, it it not supported by the poll, which simply asked which leader and party respondents believed would be tougher. Forty-six per cent rated that Matthew Guy and the Coalition would be, compared with 29% for Daniel Andrews and Labor. Respondents were also asked who would “do better at preventing unnecessary price rises and keeping the cost of living in check”, which has Andrews and Labor on 37% and Guy and the Coalition on 35%. Andrews holds a 40-33 lead on a straightforward better Premier question. I presume the poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday; the sample was 1095.

Below is a poll aggregation chart that combines four results apiece from Newspoll, Galaxy and ReachTEL, twelve from Roy Morgan and twenty-one from Essential Research. ReachTEL, Morgan and Essential are bias-adjusted to make them more like Newspoll and Galaxy. On the current reading of the trend, Labor leads 51.2-48.8, from primary votes of Labor 38.3%, Coalition 41.8% and Greens 10.2%.

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YouGov Galaxy: 54-46 to Labor in Western Australia

Nearly eighteen months after its election, the McGowan government records a strong result in its first published poll.

The first Western Australian state poll since Labor’s election win in March 2017 comes from YouGov Galaxy, courtesy of the Sunday Times, and it credits Labor with a 54-46 lead on two-party preferred, compared with 55.5-44.5 at the election. The primary votes are Labor 40% (compared with 42.2% at the election), Liberal 32% (31.2%), Nationals 6% (5.4%), Greens 11% (8.9%), One Nation 5% (4.9%). Presumably there were other questions featured in the poll, but that’s all we have for now. The sample for the poll was 800; I presume it was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday.

UPDATE: This turns out to have been part of the same poll from a week ago which found federal voting intention in Western Australia at 51-49 in favour of the Coalition. As such, the field work dates were August 2 and 3, which were the Thursday and Friday of last week.

Saturday smorgasbord

Details on two privately conducted polls, plus a stew of federal preselection news.

Two privately conducted ReachTEL polls from the past week to relate, followed by enough federal preselection news to choke on. Also note immediately below this the post on a new YouGov Galaxy state poll from Queensland. I should also observe that September 8 has been set as the date for the Wagga Wagga state by-election in New South Wales, to be held after Liberal member Daryl Maguire fell foul of the Independent Commission Against Corruption. It presumably won’t be contested by Labor and will probably be of interest only to locals, but Antony Green naturally has a guide up.

On with the show:

• The Guardian reports a poll conducted for the ACTU has Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. Other findings of the poll relate to wage rises, or the lack thereof: 47.6% reported not having received one in the past year, 32.9% said such as they had received did not cover the cost of living, and only 19.5% said their pay had improved in real terms. The poll was conducted on August 2 from a sample of 2453.

• Greenpeace has a Victoria only poll which, after exclusion of the 6.7% undecided, has the Coalition on 35.4% (compared with 41.8% at the 2016 election), Labor on 34.9% (35.6%), the Greens on an unlikely 18.6% (13.1%) and One Nation on 5.1%. Labor leads 57-43 on two-party preferred, compared with 51.8-48.2 at the election. The poll was conducted July 30 from a sample of 1118.

The preselection news bonanza starts in Victoria, where internal party democracy has been having a rough time of it lately, with Labor’s national executive and the Liberal Party’s state administrative committee both taking over federal preselections to protect sitting members amid factional unrest.

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YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to Labor in Queensland

A post-election bounce for Labor washes out in the latest Queensland state poll, as Annastacia Palaszczuk takes a five point hit on her approval rating.

The Courier Mail has results of a YouGov Galaxy poll of state voting intention in Queensland, which has Labor leading 51-49, down from 53-47 at the last such poll in May. The primary votes are Labor 35% (down three), LNP 37% (up two), Greens 11% (up one) and One Nation 10% (down two). Annastacia Palaszczuk is down five on approval to 41% and steady on disapproval at 38%, while Deb Frecklington is steady on 31% and down two 26%. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 800, and will hopefully be followed tomorrow or the day after by a set of federal voting intention numbers.