UK Holborn and St Pancras by-election live

Labour will be defending Keir Starmer’s former seat against a challenge from Greens leader Zack Polanski. Also covered: three past and upcoming electoral events in Canada’s provinces.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Polls close at 8am AEDT Friday for a by-election in former UK Labour PM Keir Starmer’s seat of Holborn and St Pancras after he resigned in early September. I will be out all Friday and won’t be able to update until after 5pm.

At the July 2024 UK general election, Starmer won 48.9% in this seat, a left-wing independent 18.9%, the Greens 10.4%, the Conservatives 7.2%, the populist right Reform 6.1% and the Liberal Democrats 5.8%. A total of 15 candidates are contesting the by-election, including Greens leader Zack Polanski.

In the Election Maps UK national poll aggregate, Labour leads with 27.2%, followed by Reform at 23.3%, the Conservatives at 19.7%, the Greens at 10.0%, the Lib Dems at 10.0% and the populist right Restore at 3.9%. Labour PM Andy Burnham is the only party leader with a net positive approval at +9, with Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch at -1, Lib Dem leader Ed Davey at -5, Polanski at -24 and Reform leader Nigel Farage at -25. Starmer had a -41 net approval before he was ousted.

Seat projections give Labour 280 of the 650 House of Commons seats, the Conservatives 110, Reform 96, the Lib Dems 69, the Scottish National Party (SNP) 44 and the Greens nine. If this occurred, Labour could form government with the support of the Lib Dems.

Canada: past and upcoming electoral events

All Canadian federal and provincial elections use first past the post. At Monday’s Quebec provincial election, the separatist Quebec Party (PQ) won 59 of the 127 seats (up 56 since the 2022 election), the centre-left Liberals 40 (up 19), the Conservatives 19 (up 19), the left-wing separatist Quebec Solidaire (QS) nine (down two) and the conservative nationalist CAQ zero (down 90). The PQ is short of the 64 seats needed for a majority.

Vote shares were 28.0% PQ (up 13.4%), 24.2% Liberals (up 9.9%), 20.7% Conservatives (up 7.8%), 13.4% CAQ (down 27.6%) and 12.4% QS (down 3.0%). A massive crash in the CAQ vote combined with FPTP gave them zero seats after previously winning 90 of 125.

A referendum on whether the right-wing province of Alberta should secede from Canada will occur on October 19. If the referendum succeeds, there will be a binding referendum at a later date. Three September polls of this referendum give “Remain in Canada” 40 to 50 point leads.

A snap election for the province of British Columbia has been called for October 24, two years early. At the October 2024 BC election, the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) won a bare majority with 47 of the 93 seats on 44.9% of the vote. The Conservatives won 44 seats on 44.3% and the Greens two seats on 8.2%. The NDP won a third successive term in government at that election.

In analyst Éric Grenier’s aggregate, the Conservatives lead the NDP by 44.6-43.3 with 8.7% for the Greens for this election. Seat point estimates have the Conservatives winning 47 seats, the NDP 44 and the Greens two.

Israeli election: October 27

Israel’s October 27 election will use national proportional representation with a 3.25% threshold to elect a total of 120 MPs. Only polls conducted for the right-wing Channel 14 give Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing governing coalition more than the 61 seats needed for a majority, with most other polls giving the government under 50 seats. However, even if the governing coalition loses its majority, it may be difficult to form an alternative government.

US and NZ elections updates

I wrote about both the US November 3 midterm elections and the November 7 NZ election for The Conversation on Wednesday. In the US, Democrats have a 9.6-point generic ballot lead in Nate Silver’s midterms model. They have a 74% chance to gain control of the Senate and a 94% chance in the House of Representatives. Donald Trump’s net approval is up from a record low to -22.5.

In NZ, a Reid Research poll gave the left-wing bloc a 2.1-point lead, the first left lead in any poll since June. A Verian poll had the right holding a 3.4-point lead. In both polls, Opportunity would win the balance of power.

YouGov: Labor 25, One Nation 28, Coalition 21 (open thread)

Labor hits a new low on the primary vote in an otherwise little-changed set of fortnightly federal poll numbers from YouGov.

The latest fortnightly News24 Pulse poll by YouGov records only minor change on the last result, although Labor’s one-point drop to 25% is noteworthy in being a new low for them in this series. One Nation is up a point to 28%, the Coalition is steady on 21% and the Greens are up one to a new peak of 15%. Labor’s lead over One Nation on the respondent-allocated two-party measure is in from 55-45 to 53-47, while its lead over the Coalition on the previous election flows two-party measure is unchanged at 52-48.

Anthony Albanese is unchanged at 33% approval and down one to 61% disapproval, while Angus Taylor is down two to 34% and up three to 51%. Albanese’s lead over Taylor on preferred prime minister is down to 40-39, in from 41-37 last time, and his lead over Hanson has narrowed from 50-38 to 50-40. The poll also finds 63-37 breaking against Jim Chalmers’ proposition that last week’s interest rate increase was “primarily the result of the conflict in the Middle East”. It was conducted last Tuesday to this Tuesday from a sample of 1505.

RedBridge Group: Labor 28, One Nation 29, Coalition 21 (open thread)

A new federal poll finds One Nation edging to a primary vote lead, and a further slump in Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings.

The Financial Review has its monthly RedBridge Group/Accent Research poll, showing One Nation gaining a point to lead on the primary vote with 29%, Labor down one to 28%, the Coalition down one to 21% and the Greens down one to 11%. The poll is distinctive in crediting the Coalition with a 54-46 two-party lead over Labor on respondent-allocated preferences, out from 52-48, albeit that the Coalition would clearly be running third in most seats on these numbers. A measure based on 2025 election preference flows shows 50-50, after Labor led 52-48 last time. Labor holds an unchanged respondent-allocated lead of 52-48 over One Nation.

The report has net approval ratings for various figures, for which I will hopefully be able to provide more detail later today. Anthony Albanese has slumped ten points to a net minus 27%, Jim Chalmers is down nine to 23%, Pauline Hanson is up two to minus 10, and Angus Taylor is down three to minus six. Respondents were also asked about Michelle Bullock, who was at minus three, though the uncommitted rate here would be worth knowing. A three-way preferred prime minister question has Albanese steady on 31%, Hanson up two to 26% and Taylor steady on 15%. The poll was conducted last Monday to Friday from a sample of 1000.

Note also the post below on today’s Brazilian presidential election.

Brazilian presidential first round election live

It’s unlikely either Lula or Flavio Bolsonaro will win a majority in today’s Brazilian presidential election, so the runoff on October 25 will probably be needed. Runoff polls slightly favour Bolsonaro.

Live Commentary

9:31am Tuesday In elections to the legislature, Bolsonaro’s Liberals won 121 of the 513 seats in the Chamber of Deputies (up 22 since 2022), while the left-wing coalition won 88 seats (up 11). Other parties winning seats appear to be centrist to right-wing. In the Senate, the Liberals won 19 of the 54 seats up for election (up 14), with the left holding its six seats. The Liberals have a total of 29 of the 81 seats, to nine for the left.

1:28pm (Two paragraph entry) With all first round votes counted, Bolsonaro defeated Lula by 47.0-45.2, a 1.9-point margin. Of the remaining votes, 5.1% were for centrist candidates and 2.2% for another right-wing candidate. Lula won’t win the October 25 runoff unless he gains votes directly from Bolsonaro.

Most polls understated F. Bolsonaro, but not as badly as they understated J. Bolsonaro in 2022. The most accurate first round poll (Futura) gave Bolsonaro a two-point lead. That poll gives him a 2.9-point lead in the runoff.

10:53am There has been a clear trend to Lula in late counting, with Bolsonaro’s lead down to 47.6-44.5 with 95% in.

10:13am With 85% counted, F. Bolsonaro leads Lula by 48.5-43.5. In 2022, Lula won the first round over J. Bolsonaro by 48.4-43.2.

9:45am With 65% counted, Bolsonaro falls below 50%, but leads Lula by 49.6-42.3. Counting has stalled for a while.

9:14am With 47% counted, Bolsonaro leads Lula by 50.2-41.6. Bolsonaro probably won’t get a first round majority, but it looks as if he’ll win the first round and be the heavy favourite in the October 25 runoff.

8:40am With 31% counted, Bolsonaro leads Lula by 50.7-41.1. While there remains a small swing to Lula in the federal district, there’s a big swing to Bolsonaro in Tocantins. With 84% counted there, he leads by 50.7-43.1. In 2022, Lula beat J. Bolsonaro in Tocantins by 50.4-44.0 in the first round.

8:05am With 12% counted, Bolsonaro leads by 51.1-40.7. The federal district is the most complete with 70% counted. If current figures there are accurate, Lula will have a small swing to him there compared with the first round result in 2022.

7:35am With 2% counted, Bolsonaro leads Lula by 49.7-41.8.

6:59am Monday The Guardian has live results. In 2022, initial results favoured Bolsonaro more than the final figures.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Polls close at 7am AEDT Monday (note, not AEST anymore) for the first round of Brazil’s presidential election. Brazil uses staggered polling hours, where polls in a trailing time zone open and close an hour before those in a leading time zone. This means all polls will close at the same time.

Unless one candidate wins more than 50% of the vote today, a runoff between the top two will occur on October 25. The two main candidates are Workers’ Party incumbent Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former populist right president Jair Bolsonaro. At the 2022 presidential election, Lula defeated Jair Bolsonaro in the runoff by 50.9-49.1, ending Bolsonaro’s presidency after one term. Polls had understated Bolsonaro at that election.

Brazilian polls include undecided, so both Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are doing better than their current vote shares indicate, with Lula usually ahead in first round polls. The other four listed candidates are in the single digits. With undecided removed, I expect the first round winner (Lula or Bolsonaro) to get at least mid-40s, not far from a majority.

In 12 polls of the likely runoff by different pollsters taken since September 24, Bolsonaro has an average lead of 0.5 points, with a range from a four-point Lula lead to a 5.5-point Bolsonaro lead. Bolsonaro has gained a lead for the runoff since I last wrote about Brazil two weeks ago.

Federal elections to the legislature will also be held today. In the Senate, 54 of the 81 seats will be up for election with two senators elected for each of Brazil’s 27 states using first past the post; the other 27 senators were elected in 2022. All 513 seats in the Chamber of Deputies will be elected by proportional representation using multi-member electorates based on the states.

US and NZ elections updates

US midterm elections occur on November 3. I wrote for The Conversation on September 25 that Donald Trump’s US net approval was at a record low -23.0 in Nate Silver’s aggregate (it’s now -23.5). In Silver’s forecast model, Democrats now lead Republicans by 9.6 points on the generic ballot (9.1 points on September 25). They have a 73% chance to gain control of the Senate and a 93% chance to gain control of the House of Representatives (previously 69% and 91% respectively).

The New Zealand election is on November 7. I wrote for the NZ edition of The Conversation last Tuesday that the right-wing parties had a lead over the left-wing parties, with the centrist Opportunity a reasonable chance to gain the balance of power. The Greens surged four points to a record high 16% in a late September Verian poll.

Canadian Quebec provincial election on Tuesday AEDT

Results of the Canadian Quebec provincial election will come out on Tuesday AEDT. The 127 seats are elected by FPTP. At the 2022 Quebec election, the conservative nationalist CAQ won 90 of the 125 seats on 41.0% of the vote, the centre-left Liberals 21 on 14.4%, the left-wing separatist Quebec Solidaire (QS) 11 on 15.4%, the separatist Quebec Party (PQ) three on 14.6% and the Conservatives zero on 12.9%.

Analyst Éric Grenier says the polls give the PQ 30.0% of the vote, the Liberals 23.5%, the Conservatives 19.4%, the CAQ 15.0% and QS 10.8%. Seat projections give the PQ a point estimate of 68 seats, the Liberals 36, the Conservatives 16, QS seven and the CAQ zero. If this occurs, the CAQ would be wiped out after winning a big majority in 2022, while the PQ would win a majority from just three seats.

UK by-election in Starmer’s former seat on Thursday

Former UK Labour PM Keir Starmer resigned as Member for Holborn and St Pancras in early September. The by-election for this seat will occur on Thursday. At the July 2024 UK general election, Starmer won 48.9% in this seat, a left-wing independent 18.9%, the Greens 10.4%, the Conservatives 7.2%, the populist right Reform 6.1% and the Liberal Democrats 5.8%. A total of 15 candidates are contesting the by-election, including Greens leader Zack Polanski.

Federal polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)

Two new federal polls, one recording improvement for Labor from a particularly bad result last time, the other showing little change.

Two federal polls that reported this week:

• The monthly Essential Research poll recorded a recovery for Labor after a particularly bad result last time, up three on the primary vote to 29%, with the Coalition down four to 22%, One Nation up two to 25%, the Greens down one to 12% and undecided up one to 6%. Labor edged into a 48-46 lead over the Coalition on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure, after the Coalition led 50-45 last time. Anthony Albanese was up two on approval to 37% and down two on disapproval to 54%, while Angus Taylor was down one to 31% and up two on disapproval to 43%. The full report features extensive further questions on immigration (including a finding that general attitudes have improved since April, with 46% viewing it as generally positive and 39% as generally negative, up five and down six respectively), one on gambling, and another on (indirectly) Ed Sheeran. The poll was conducted last Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1008.

• The weekly Roy Morgan poll breaks from the pollster’s recent practice in encompassing a fortnight of surveying, and presumably half consists of the result that was published last week, with an overall sample of 2569. The movements on last week’s result are duly more modest than Morgan’s recent form, which was presumably the idea: Labor up one to 26%, One Nation steady on 25.5%, the Coalition up one to 22.5% and the Greens down one to 14.5%. Labor’s respondent-allocated lead over One Nation is in from 54-46 to 53.5-46.5; against the Coalition, Labor is out from 52-48 to 52.5-47.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and steady on 52-48 on previous election flows. With its expanded sample, the release linked to above also treats us to full voting intention breakdowns from the mainland states.

Victorian election: DemosAU poll, election guide and seat projection model

A narrowing in the Coalition’s advantage over Labor in a new Victorian state poll. Also: introducing the Poll Bludger election guide and seat projection model.

The Herald Sun reports a DemosAU/PremierNational poll of Victorian state voting intention has the Coalition’s two-party lead over Labor narrowing from 55-45 to 52-48, from primary votes of Labor 25% (up two), Coalition 30% (down two), One Nation 20% (down two) and Greens 14% (up one). Ben Carroll’s personal ratings are up two for positive to 23%, down two for neutral to 40% and steady on 37% for negative; Jess Wilson’s are down two on positive to 33%, up one on neutral to 42% and up one on negative to 25%; and Warren Pickering’s ratings have responded only moderately to the recent elevation to his public profile, up three on positive to 22%, down five on neutral to 38% and up two on negative to 40%. The poll was conducted September 10 to 20 from a sample of 1020. A full report featuring detailed breakdowns should be on the pollster’s website later today.

UPDATE (1/10): The Herald-Sun today has a Freshwater Strategy poll that gives the Coalition a 53-47 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 24%, Coalition 29%, One Nation 22% and Greens 14%. A three-way preferred premier question has Jess Wilson at 37%, Ben Carroll at 30% and Warren Pickering at 13%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1030.

I am also pleased to announce that the Poll Bludger’s Victorian election guide is now online, with all the customary features: tables, charts, interactive maps and analysis of all 88 lower house seats and eight upper house regions, plus a general overview of the electoral terrain and state politics generally over the past parliamentary term.

No less exciting is a new addition to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate that aims to make sense of the new electoral terrain by projecting outcomes for all 88 seats, based on modelling and the latest reading of the poll aggregate. To cut a long story short, the model is based largely on the relationship between federal and state election results in South Australia, the only case study so far of how voting patterns have changed since One Nation’s apparent transformation from minor to major party, together with Indigenous Voice referendum results (a pointer to strength for One Nation), data on outright home ownership (a pointer to the Liberals) and whether the seat has a Coalition incumbent (which appeared to be a relevant factor in the seats where the Liberals held out against One Nation in South Australia). If this approach proves its worth, I may end up applying it to the federal context.

The seat projection currently suggests Labor will be copping it at both ends, losing exactly enough seats to the Coalition to give the latter a bare majority of 45 seats while also bearing almost the entire brunt of One Nation’s 15 seat haul, in contrast to South Australia where Labor’s primary vote was 37.5% as compared with BludgerTrack Victoria’s current estimate of 25.2%. The former includes what would undoubtedly be some surprise Liberal gains in Melbourne, including Albert Park, Eltham and not least the Premier’s seat of Niddrie, with the very considerable qualification that the model makes little allowance for candidates’ personal votes. One Nation is credited with a new empire extending from Melbourne’s outer north and west through the Ballarat seats to Ripon, along with scattered gains elsewhere. UPDATE: A correction/revision to the model has made its projection less rosy for the Coalition, who are now at only 38 seats.

Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: July to September (open thread)

Detailed polling for the last quarter credits One Nation with a towering lead in Queensland, and finds Labor losing ground among lower-income earners.

The Australian has published Newspoll’s quarterly geographic and demographic breakdowns, which are notable in having both major parties well down on the April-June aggregation in Queensland (Labor down five to 25%, the Coalition down three to 19%, the Greens up three to 12% and One Nation up four to 36%) and the Coalition running fourth in South Australia (Labor steady on 32%, One Nation down one to 31%, Greens steady on 14%, Coalition down three to 13%), albeit that the sample in the latter case is only 369.

As well as being well ahead of both major parties in Queensland, One Nation is one point clear in New South Wales and only one point behind Labor in Western Australia and South Australia. Labor is down five among the 35-to-49 age cohort, compared with one to three among the other three, and One Nation is up four among 18-to-34 and three among 35-to-49, while being little changed among the older cohorts, although the party’s support is still by some distance weakest among 18-to-34. Labor is down six points among those on incomes below $50,000 and, no doubt relatedly, eight points among renters, while One Nation is respectively up four and five.

The results are combined from four polls conducted between July 13 and September 18 from an overall sample of 4967.

Weekend miscellany (open thread)

Two bits of federal preselection news, a Tasmanian state poll, and the final result from a Northern Territory by-election.

Unconnected electoral developments of the last fortnight or so:

• Paul Starick of The Advertiser reports the top end of Labor’s South Australian Senate ticket has been confirmed, with Penny Wong and Don Farrell unopposed for first and second position respectively. Starick notes that Farrell will be 80 by the end of a prospective six-year term beginning from mid-2028.

• Sarah Elks of The Australian reports a challenge to Liberal MP Angie Bell’s preselection in the Gold Coast seat of Moncrieff has fallen through, prospective nominee Trent Belling telling the Liberal National Party’s federal division council he had “taken the advice of many” in deciding to withdraw. Belling is a disability housing developer and the party’s metropolitan vice-president.

• DemosAU this week published a Tasmanian state poll showing that recorded little change on its last result in June/July, with the Liberals steady on 28%, Labor up one to 22%, One Nation steady on 21% and the Greens up one to 15%. Jeremy Rockliff was rated positively by 35% (steady), neutrally by 30% (up three) and negatively by 35% (down three), while Labor’s Josh Willie was respectively at 21% (down two), 50% (up two) and 29% (steady). Rockliff led over Willie on preferred premier was 42-34, compared with 41-32 last time. The poll was conducted September 1 to 20 from a sample of 1097.

• The Northern Territory’s Mulka by-election of September 12, arising from the retirement of independent member Yingiya Mark Guyula, ended with Labor’s Yiwarr McGrath polling 1960 votes to independent Andrew Blamey’s 574. This is Labor’s second by-election gain from the cross-bench since the August 2024 election, which reduced Labor to four seats, the first being when the Darwin seat of Nightcliff was won from the Greens in March. The governing Country Liberal Party continues to hold 17 seats, with Labor on six and two independents.

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