Israeli election live

Netanyahu’s right-wing governing coalition is expected to get well under the 61 seats needed for a majority, but can an alternative government be formed?

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Polls close at 7am AEDT Wednesday for today’s Israeli election. From previous experience, it will take all day Wednesday to count most of the votes. There will be further counting over the next seven days before the result is finalized.

Israel uses national proportional representation with a 3.25% threshold to elect a total of 120 MPs. At the 2022 election, Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition of Likud (32 seats), Religious Zionists (14), Shas (11) and UTJ (seven) won a combined 64 seats, above the 61 needed for a majority.

Only polls for the right-wing Channel 14 continue to show a majority for the current governing coalition, with all other recent polls giving the government about 50 seats. There are two Arab parties, Ra’am and the Joint List, which have a combined 13–15 seats in the polls. This is a problem for formation of a non-Netanyahu government, as the leaders of the main Jewish parties have vowed not to form government with Arab support. Publication of polls has been banned since last Friday.

While Netanyahu is likely to lose, this October 18 article in The Guardian said that Israel is becoming more right-wing. While young people in other countries are more left-wing than older people, it’s the reverse in Israel. The only left-wing Jewish party is the Democrats, a merger of Labor and Meretz.

Labor used to form governments in Israel. They won 44 seats on 34.7% of the vote in 1992, but have plummeted since, winning just four seats on 3.7% in 2022. Meretz was to the left of Labor, but fell below the 3.25% threshold in 2022. In current polls, the Democrats are winning 8–10 seats.

Other elections: the US, Serbia and the Czech Republic

The US midterm elections are next Tuesday, with polls closing from late Wednesday morning AEDT. I wrote for The Conversation on Monday that there hasn’t been much change in Nate Silver’s midterm election forecast during October. Democrats have a 75% chance to gain control of the Senate and a 95% chance in the House of Representatives. They lead Republicans in the generic ballot by 9.5 points. Donald Trump’s net approval is -23.3.

Serbia elects its 250 MPs by national proportional representation with a 3% threshold that is waived for ethnic minority parties. With 97.6% reporting for Sunday’s election, the new Student List won 53.4% of the vote and 140 seats, while the governing populist right Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) won 39.7% and 103 seats (down 26 since the December 2023 election), with no other party clearing the threshold. The remaining seven seats went to ethnic minority parties. This ended the SNS’ period of government that had lasted since 2012.

The Czech Senate has 81 members, with 27 up for election every two years using single-member electorates with a two-round system. At October 9—10 and 16—17 elections, the governing populist right ANO 2011 won zero seats (down one), the first time a government has not won a seat. The centre-left Mayors and Independents won nine seats (down one) and two conservative parties a combined ten seats (up two). Overall, the two conservative parties combined hold 32 of the 81 seats, Mayors and Independents 14 and ANO 11.

Morgan: Labor 26, Coalition 23.5, One Nation 22.5 (open thread)

Roy Morgan produces the first federal poll in two months to have the Coalition ahead of One Nation.

The fortnightly Roy Morgan poll has the Coalition nudging into second place with a two-point gain to 23.5%, while One Nation is down one-and-a-half to 22.5%. Labor is steady on 26% and the Greens have gained half a point to 15.5%. Labor holds respondent-allocated two-party leads of 55-45 over One Nation, out from 54.5-45.5, and 52.5-47.5 over One Nation, in from 53-47. Labor’s two-party lead over the Coalition on previous election preference flows is in from 53.5-46.5 to 53-47. The poll was conducted October 12 to 25 from a sample of 2711. The full release features breakdowns for the five mainland states.

Newspoll: Labor 24, Coalition 33, One Nation 20 in Victoria

With only a month to go, Newspoll gives the Coalition its strongest Victorian poll result since the start of the year.

The Australian has a Victorian state Newspoll that credits the Coalition with a two-party lead over Labor of 55-45, out from 52-48 at a poll conducted in July, one week before Jacinta Allan was deposed. Labor is down four on the primary vote to 24%, with the Coalition up two to 33%, One Nation up one to 20% and the Greens up one to 14%. Ben Carroll’s debut personal ratings are 30% favourable and 58% unfavourable; Jess Wilson is up two to 49% and steady on 39%, and leads Carroll 48-34 on preferred premier, compared with her 51-32 lead over Allan in the last poll. The poll was conducted October 15 to 22 from a sample of 1017. Another Victorian state poll, from DemosAU, should be along in the coming days.

Further Victorian election news (and note also new posts below this one on a Queensland state poll and Brazil’s presidential election):

• Roy Morgan last week had region-level results of upper house voting intention drawn from polling of 2845 respondents conducted from July to September, suggesting an overall result of 12 seats for the Coalition, 10 for Labor, eight for the Greens and six for One Nation, with the remaining four in play. The results in 2022 were Labor 15, Coalition 14, Greens four and One Nation one, with various others accounting for six seats – the latter aspect assuredly not to be repeated this time due to the abolition of group voting tickets.

• As Labor sorts out its Legislative Council tickets, Left-faction incumbent Sonja Terpstra, who was elected from second on the North-Eastern Metropolitan ticket in 2022, announced a fortnight ago that she will not seek re-election. The Australian’s Victoria Ink column reported last week that the Right was weighing up which of the top positions out of Southern Metropolitan and North-Eastern Metropolitan to yield to an under-represented Left, to be determined by a national executive ballot if the relevant factional leaders could not reach agreement. The respective lead candidates for the two regions in 2022 were Shaun Leane, who is retiring, and John Berger, who is presumably under threat. The Left’s Ryan Batchelor, who was elected from second in Southern Metropolitan in 2022, had “covered his bases” by nominating in both regions. Kate Maxwell, an emergency department doctor at Latrobe Regional Hospital and the daughter of former Narracan MP Ian Maxfield, was to replace the retiring Gayle Tierney in Western Victoria, which presumably means taking second position behind incumbent Jacinta Ermacora.

• Marcus de Blonk Smith of The Australian reports Liberal sources saying the party will hold off preference negotiations with One Nation until after the close of nominations. An earlier report in The Australian by Anthony Galloway suggests this is because they may wish to withhold preferences from specific candidates with “unacceptable conduct or views”, and may keep simple in seats where it draws top of the ballot paper by recommending a donkey vote. The battle that long raged over whether to put One Nation last has seemingly been decided in favour of One Nation in recent years, though One Nation remained concerned enough to pressure Angus Taylor to sign a commitment to put Labor last when he appeared at the MAGA-adjacent CPAC conference earlier this month. The main beneficiary of such a decision would in fact be the Greens, who became competitive for the first time in Preston, Pascoe Vale and Footscray when the Liberals put Labor last in 2022.

• The Liberals have dumped Grant Hutchinson as their candidate for the eastern suburbs seat of Croydon, which will be vacated with the retirement of David Hodgett. The state executive moved on October 13 to replace Hutchinson with Toby Wooldridge, associate director of a geospatial analytics firm, son of Howard government Health Minister Michael Wooldridge and nephew of former state MP Mary Wooldridge. Jess Wilson told the media that “further details” had come to light concerning Hutchinson’s ongoing legal battle with current and former partners of his law firm, Hutchinson Legal. Liberal sources cited by Anthony Galloway of The Australian spoke of concern that Liberal internal affairs would be aired amid a dispute in which Hutchinson had been accused of “bullying and using the firm’s resources to further his political career”.

• Alex White of the Herald Sun reports Labor “insiders” say Frankston and Carrum are “likely to be lost”, but they remain hopeful Mordialloc might be retained and optimistic about Bentleigh. A Liberal source suggested the party considered the eastern suburbs seats of Box Hill, Ashwood, Glen Waverley and Bayswater were a higher priority.

DemosAU: LNP 34, Labor 25, One Nation 23 in Queensland

A new poll finds the LNP maintaining its dominance in Queensland. Also: optional preferential voting latest and Labor preselection news.

The Sunday Mail has a DemosAU poll of state voting intention in Queensland, the first in a series of state polls that DemosAU will be publishing over the coming week or two. It credits the Liberal National Party with a two-party lead over Labor of 57-43, out from 56-44 at the last such poll in September, from primary votes of LNP 34% (steady), Labor 25% (down one), One Nation 23% (up two) and Greens 11% (steady). David Crisafulli leads Steven Miles 46-32 on preferred premier, out from 45-33. Crisafulli is rated positively by 41% (down one), neutrally by 30% (up two) and negatively by 22% (down two), Miles positively by 26% (down four), neutrally by 29% (up three) and negatively by 37% (up two). The poll was conducted October 14 to 21 from a sample of 1200.

Other Queensland state electoral developments of note:

• Marcus de Blonk Smith of The Australian last week reported on a “senior LNP figure” expressing a “quiet hope” that David Crisafulli will think better of fulfilling his election commitment to return to optional preferential voting, the democratic merits of which have become less obvious on the conservative side of politics since One Nation usurped the Greens as the third electoral force. Paul Williams of Griffith University denounced the “insane plan” in a column in the Courier-Mail last month, under which he says “Labor could easily win a dozen or more seats in regional Queensland – and probably government”. This is perhaps hyperbole, but I am no more convinced by another academic, John Wanna, whom The Australian quotes saying the move would “pay off for the Coalition” by depriving Labor of Greens preferences. A Resolve Strategic poll for Nine Newspapers in February found 47% support for optional preferential, with only 24% favouring compulsory preferences. Thirty per cent said they would be unlikely to number beyond one if not required to, with 52% saying they would likely number additional preferences.

• Labor up-and-comer Meaghan Scanlon has expressed her determination to defend her Gold Coast seat of Gaven, which by my accounting of the new boundaries is now an LNP in which Scanlon must overcome a notional margin of 5.1%. Television and radio news reporter Bianca Stone, who came within 0.7% of winning the seat in 2024, is thought likely to run again for the LNP, though the Courier-Mail’s George Street Beat column named Karly Abbott, director of policy to Treasurer David Janetzki, as a potential candidate for Gaven or another Gold Coast seat.

• Scanlon’s announcement scotched suggestions she might seek to move to the new Ipswich region seat of Greenbank. The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column reported in August that Ipswich councillor Pye Augustine was “primed as an option” if Scanlon wasn’t interested. Charis Mullen, whose existing seat of Jordan is to be split between Greenbank and Springfield, is expected to contest the latter. Elsewhere, Toohey MP Peter Russo was likely to emerge the loser out of that seat’s effective merger with Stretton into Eight Mile Plains, with Stretton MP James Martin reckoned the stronger claimant.

• The quarterly Resolve Strategic result for the Brisbane Times has the LNP down two to 32%, Labor down one to 24%, One Nation up one to 21% and the Greens up one to 11%. David Crisafulli leads Steven Miles 41-24 on preferred premier, in from 41-22. The poll has a sample of 868, and was conducted as part of the pollster’s national surveying from 1 to 5 and October 6 to 10.

Brazilian presidential runoff election live

On the first round results, Flávio Bolsonaro is the heavy favourite to win today’s runoff election, but polls show his lead narrowing. The Canadian NDP loses the British Columbian election they called two years early.

Results wrap

12:52pm (Three paragraph entry) With all votes counted, Lula wins by 51.8-48.2, a 3.6-point margin. It’s the first time the first round runner-up has won the runoff in Brazil, though this has occurred in other countries. It’s the biggest win for the left in Brazil since 2010. This will be Lula’s fourth term, after he won the 2002, 2006 and 2022 elections.

After understating the Bolsonaros in this election’s first round and in both the first round and runoff in 2022, I believe pollsters were afraid to show Lula ahead in their final polls. Five of the seven final polls gave Bolsonaro a one-point lead and one a 0.3-point lead, with Gerp giving him a three-point lead. This is evidence of “herding”, where polls converge to a consensus, but it can be the wrong consensus.

Brazil uses compulsory voting. Turnout for the runoff was 80.8%, up from 78.9% in the first round.

Live Commentary

11:03am With 89% counted, Lula leads by over three points, 51.5-48.5.

10:48am With 72% counted, Lula is up to a 51.0-49.0 lead over Bolsonaro, higher than his 50.9-49.1 win over Jair Bolsonaro in 2022.

10:36am With 60% in, Lula extends his lead to 1.04 points.

10:30am Wtih 51% in, Lula has retaken the overall lead, by 0.3 points. He is very likely to win from here.

10:21am Bolsonaro’s peak overall lead was one point, and is now down to 0.3 points with 43% counted.

10:18am Bolsonaro leads by 12.6 points in Espirito Santo with 86% counted, down from 17.0 points in the first round. That’s a 4.4-point swing to Lula.

10:10am Bolsonaro won the first round against Lula by 1.9 points. If the swings in Tocantins and the federal district are representative, Lula will win the runoff.

10:03am With 88% counted in the federal district, Bolsonaro’s lead has dropped to 8.8 points, increasing the swing to Lula to 4.4 points. However, Bolsonaro now leads by 1.8 points with 83% counted in Tocantins, decreasing the swing to Lula to 5.2 points there.

9:48am With 15% overall counted, Bolsonaro is barely ahead, 50.04-49.96. Bolsonaro was much further ahead at this point in the first round.

9:43am Bolsonaro won Tocantins by 7.0 points in the first round. With 55% counted there, Lula is winning by 0.2 points, a 7.2 point swing to Lula.

9:39am Bolsonaro won the federal district in the first round over Lula by 13.2 points. With 57% counted there, he’s winning by 9.4 points, a 3.8-point swing to Lula.

9:29am With 4.5% counted, Lula leads by 51.2-48.8. I think there’s a good chance Lula wins now. Bolsonaro was far ahead when the same percentage had been counted in the first round.

9:14am With 1.7% counted, Lula leads Bolsonaro by 52.1-47.9.

7:36am Polling hours have been extended until 9am AEDT owing to claims by the Lula campaign of intentional vote suppression by providing poor public transport.

7:11am Lula leads by 57.7-42.3 with 0.2% counted. I think this is mostly the votes cast abroad so far.

7:03am Monday The Guardian has live results of the Brazilian runoff. Early results in the first round were far better for Bolsonaro than his final margin.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Polls close at 7am AEDT Monday for the runoff of Brazil’s presidential election. Brazil uses staggered polling hours, where polls in a trailing time zone open and close an hour before those in a leading time zone. This means all polls will close at the same time.

At the October 4 first round election, Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former populist right president Jair Bolsonaro, defeated Workers’ Party incumbent Lula by 47.0–45.2. Of the remaining votes, 5.1% were for centrist candidates and 2.2% for another right-wing candidate.

As Bolsonaro’s first round vote share was under 50%, today’s runoff between Bolsonaro and Lula was needed. On the first round results, Bolsonaro is the heavy favourite. The most accurate first round poll (Futura) gave Bolsonaro a two-point lead. That poll gave him a 2.9-point lead in the runoff. Most polls for today’s runoff have Bolsonaro leading Lula by one point, a narrowing from a 4—5 point Bolsonaro lead after the first round results.

At the 2022 presidential election, Lula defeated Jair Bolsonaro in the runoff by 50.9-49.1, ending Bolsonaro’s presidency after one term. Polls had understated Bolsonaro at that election. In this election’s first round, polls understated Flávio Bolsonaro, but not as badly as they did his father.

Conservatives win Canadian British Columbia provincial election

Canadian provincial and federal elections use first past the post. At Saturday’s election in the province of British Columbia (polls closed at 2pm AEDT Sunday), the CBC has called 56 of the 93 seats for the Conservatives, 23 for the left-wing governing New Democratic Party (NDP) and two for the Greens at 5:45pm AEDT. Current vote shares are 48.1% Conservatives, 37.4% NDP, 11.0% Greens and 3.5% others. There are some votes that won’t be counted until November 6–10; in the past, these votes have leaned left.

At the 2024 BC election, the NDP had won a bare majority with 47 of 93 seats on 44.9% of the votes, retaining government for a third successive term, with the Conservatives winning 44 seats on 43.3% of votes and the Greens two on 8.2%. This disastrous election for the NDP was called two years early.

Before the election was called on September 22, the NDP had led the Conservatives by single-digit margins with about 10% for mostly right-wing others. The Conservatives gained from others, while the NDP lost votes to the Greens. The Conservatives appear to have exceeded final pre-election polls, but we’ll need to wait for final results to confirm.

The final result for last Monday’s Albertan secession referendum was a 75.0—25.0 win for “Remain in Canadia”, a 50.0-point margin. Two polls greatly understated Remain’s winning margin.

Israeli and NZ election updates

The Israeli election is on Tuesday, with polls closing at 7am AEDT Wednesday. This election uses national proportional representation with a 3.25% threshold to elect a total of 120 MPs. Only polls for the right-wing Channel 14 continue to show Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing governing coalition with a majority (61 seats), with all other recent polls giving the government about 50 seats.

The New Zealand election is on November 7. I wrote for the NZ edition of The Conversation last Wednesday that a Verian poll had right-wing parties leading left-wing parties by 7.3 points, meaning the right could win a majority of the seats even if Opportunity enters parliament.

Latvian and Bosnian election results

The October 3 Latvian election used PR in multi-member electorates with a national 5% threshold to elect 100 MPs. The green conservative United List won 41 seats (up 26 since the 2022 election), the populist right Latvia First 17 (up eight), a populist coalition 15 (new), the conservative National Alliance ten (down three), the centre-left Progressives ten (steady) and the conservative New Unity seven (down 19). An agrarian party lost its 16 seats after falling below the threshold.

Bosnia has a three-member presidency, with one elected by ethnic Bosniaks, one by Croats and one by Serbs using FPTP. At the October 4 election, the centre-left candidate won the Bosniak position, the conservative candidate won the Croat position and the populist right candidate won the Serb position. This was a gain since 2022 for the conservatives with the Croats with the other two unchanged.

YouGov: Labor 24, One Nation 27, Coalition 23 (open thread)

Labor hits a new low on the primary vote, and loses its two-party preferred advantage over the Coalition.

The fortnightly News24 Pulse poll from YouGov gives Labor its worst primary vote result from any poll this term, dropping one point to 24% with One Nation down one to 27%, the Coalition up two to 23% and the Greens down one to 14%. Labor and the Coalition are now tied on a two-party preferred measure based on 2025 election preference flows, after Labor led 52-48 last time. Labor’s respondent-allocated lead over One Nation is unchanged at 53-47.

Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 32% and up one on disapproval to 62%, while Angus Taylor is up one to 35% and down two to 49%, and Pauline Hanson is steady at 50% and up two to 42%. Albanese’s leads of preferred prime minister nudges from 40-39 to 41-39 against Angus Taylor, and from 50-40 to 50-42 against Pauline Hanson (different movements are shown on the News24 site, but I believe mine are correct). The poll was conducted October 13 to 20 from a sample of 1542.

Canadian Alberta secession referendum live

Polls give “Remain in Canada” a huge lead in Alberta. Also covered: updates on elections due in the next two weeks and the snap November 29 Spanish election.

Live Commentary

9:37am Thursday I’m not sure why it’s taking so long to get final results, but with 96% of polls counted, Remain leads by 75.1-24.9, a 50.2-point margin. Three of the five final polls had Remain leading by 47 to 53 points, but the other two (Angus Reid and Mainstreet) only gave Remain a 31-32 point lead. The error in the margin of those two polls was 18-19 points, or just under half of the 1936 Literary Digest poll’s error. That’s very poor.

9:31am Wednesday With 90% of polls reporting, Remain leads by 75.2-24.8. Contrary to my previous post, there’s been some movement against Remain in later counting.

5:42pm There was an error with the polls reporting number, so actually it’s 38% of polls counted, with Remain leading by 76.5-23.5. Urban areas that overwhelmingly support Remain have been relatively slow to count, so Remain should increase further in the final results.

4:16pm Finally results from Alberta! With 42% of polls reporting, Remain leads by 76.5-23.5, a 53-point margin. The polls at the top end of Remain support will be more accurate.

3:58pm Still no results from Alberta. Canada is usually quick to report results once polls close.

2:44pm Here’s the CBC’s referendum results page. There will be a projection once enough votes have been counted.

9:35am Tuesday Owing to delays in opening some polling stations in Alberta, some will stay open until later. No results will be released until all polls are closed at 10pm local time (3pm AEDT).

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Polls close at 1pm AEDT today for a referendum on whether the right-wing province of Alberta should secede from Canada. If the referendum succeeds, there will be a binding referendum at a later date. Five polls of this referendum taken since last Tuesday gave “Remain in Canada” 31-to-53-point leads.

This referendum isn’t like the 2016 UK Brexit referendum. While most Brexit polls gave “Remain” a lead, there were polls with “Leave” ahead, and the “Remain” lead in polling aggregates was one to four points, compared with the 3.8-point official margin for “Leave”. For “Remain” to lose this referendum, the polls would need to be about as wrong as the infamous 1936 Literary Digest poll that understated Roosevelt’s popular vote margin at the 1936 US presidential election by 39 points.

At the 2025 Canadian federal election, the Conservatives defeated the centre-left Liberals in Alberta by 63.5-27.9 with 6.3% for the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) in Alberta. Nationally, the Liberals defeated the Conservatives by 43.8-41.3 with 6.3% NDP.

Also in Canada, the British Columbia election will occur this Saturday, with polls closing at 2pm AEDT Sunday. In analyst Éric Grenier’s aggregate, the Conservatives are winning 50 of the 93 seats on 45.4% of votes, the governing NDP 41 on 42.5% and the Greens two on 8.7%.

I previously wrote about the BC election on October 8, when the Conservatives had led by 47 seats to 44. The NDP had won a third successive term with a bare majority of 47 of the 93 seats in October 2024, but a snap election was called two years into a four-year term.

Grenier’s aggregate of federal Canadian polls gives the governing Liberals 236 of the 343 House of Commons seats on 47.3% of the vote, the Conservatives 69 on 31.8%, the separatist Quebec Bloc 21 on 6.1% (they only run in Quebec), the NDP 15 on 10.7% and the Greens two on 1.9%. Six federal by-elections have not yet been scheduled.

Election updates: Brazil, Israel and the US

The Brazilian presidential runoff election is next Sunday, with polls closing at 7am AEDT Monday. At the October 4 first round, Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former populist right president Jair Bolsonaro, defeated Workers’ Party incumbent Lula by 47.0-45.2. Most polls of the runoff suggest a small Bolsonaro advantage of 1-2 points. There has been a narrowing in Bolsonaro’s lead from immediately after the first round.

Israel’s October 27 election will use national proportional representation with a 3.25% threshold to elect a total of 120 MPs. Only polls for the right-wing Channel 14 continue to show Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing governing coalition with a majority (61 seats), with all other recent polls giving the government less than 50 seats.

I covered the US November 3 midterm elections for The Conversation on Monday. In Nate Silver’s forecast model, Democrats have a 75% chance to gain control of the Senate and a 94% chance to gain control of the House of Representatives. Democrats lead Republicans by 9.6 points in the generic ballot. Donald Trump’s net approval is -22.3. There hasn’t been much change since my previous Conversation article on October 7.

Snap Spanish election called for November 29

After the defeat of housing reform legislation in early October, Spanish Socialist PM Pedro Sánchez called a snap election for November 29, about nine months before it was due. Spain uses proportional representation in multi-member electorates to elect its 350 lower house MPs.

At the July 2023 election, the conservative People’s Party (PP) won 137 seats on 33.1% of votes, the Socialists 121 on 31.7%, the populist right Vox 33 on 12.4% and the left-wing Sumar 31 on 12.3%. Regionalist parties won the remaining 28 seats, and Sánchez was able to form a government with the support of regionalists and Sumar.

Since that election, Vox has risen to about 19% in the polls, with that support coming from left-wing parties. On current polls, the PP and Vox would win a combined majority of both the votes and seats.

Victorian polls: RedBridge Group and Resolve Strategic

Amid an unclear picture overall, two Victorian state polls show encouraging results for the Greens.

Two new state polls from Victoria, one being from RedBridge Group/Accent Research in yesterday’s Financial Review. It finds Labor steady on last month’s result at 24%, the Coalition up one to 30%, One Nation down one to 24% and the Greens up one to 16%. Labor trails the Coalition 56-44 on two-party preferred, but leads One Nation 55-45. Leadership ratings have Ben Carroll at 19% favourable (up five from August), 44% neutral (down 13) and 37% negative (up eight), and Jess Wilson at 35% favourable (up two), 47% neutral (steady) and 18% unfavourable (down two), with 28% favouring Wilson on preferred premier, 19% Carroll and 8% One Nation leader Warren Pickering. The poll was conducted October 2 to 8 from a sample of 1008.

The regular monthly Resolve Strategic poll in The Age is notable in recording a three-point uptick for the Greens to 15%, with the main contenders unchanged at Labor 25%, Coalition 28% and One Nation 23%. A three-way preferred premier question has everyone up – Ben Carroll by two points to 22%, Jess Wilson by one to 29% and One Nation’s Warren Pickering by six to 14%, with undecided down from 43% to 35%. The accompanying report has further results on the salience of various issues and the best party to handle them. The poll was conducted October 6 to 10 from a sample of 1000.

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