State polls: Tasmanian EMRS and Queensland Resolve Strategic

A Tasmanian poll offers both federal and state voting intention, while a regular Queensland state poll records a reverse for One Nation.

Two state polls that have been published this week:

• Pulse Tasmania reports on the quarterly EMRS poll, which features federal as well as state results from Tasmania. The former have Labor on 29%, One Nation on 26%, Liberal on 17% and the Greens on 15%, with a conventional two-party measure having Labor leading 57-43. The report provides no federal result for the Greens, who polled 11.1% at the election. The state results have Liberal up a point on last quarter to 26%, Labor down one to 23%, One Nation up two to 21% and the Greens up two to 16%. Jeremy Rockliff’s lead over Josh Willie as preferred premier has substantially narrowed, from 44-25 to 37-30. All three party leaders have weakened on net favourability, with Rockliff down three to minus seven, Willie down ten to minus 14 and Greens leader Rosalie Woodruff down 11 to minus 16. The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 1000.

• The Brisbane Times reports the bi-monthly Resolve Strategic poll for Queensland has the Liberal National Party up four to 34%, Labor up one to 25%, One Nation down four to 20% and the Greens 10%. David Crisafulli’s lead over Steven Miles narrows from 44-20 to 41-22. The poll combines the Queensland responses from the pollster’s last two national surveys, conducted from July 6 to 11 and August 9 to 16, with a sample of 868.

Friday miscellany: Morgan poll, preselections, NT by-election (open thread)

Labor up and the Greens down in the weekly Morgan poll, Tasmanian Liberal Senators chosen, internal warfare in the SA Liberal Party, and a by-election on the way in the Northern Territory.

Roy Morgan’s weekly federal poll maintained its volatile form in having Labor up three to 28.5%, after being down two the week before; One Nation down one to 25%; the Coalition up one-and-a-half to 23.5%, reversing its change in the last poll; and the Greens down three after a series of strong results to 12.5%. With the Greens’ loss cancelling out Labor’s gain, Labor’s two-party leads over the Coalition actually narrow slightly, from 52-48 to 51.5-48.5 on previous election preferences and 53-47 to 52-48 on respondent-allocated preferences. Labor’s respondent-allocated two-party lead over One Nation was unchanged at 53-47. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1576.

Also of note:

• Chris Gatenby, former state party president and until recently an adviser to Premier Jeremy Rockliff, was sworn in on Monday as the successor to Tasmanian Liberal Senator Wendy Askew. Gatenby will also lead the party’s Senate ticket at the next election, followed by former state government minister Sarah Courtney, who will presumably be filling Jonno Duniam’s vacancy when he follows through on his recently announced retirement. Third on the ticket is Latrobe councillor Jacki Martin.

• Paul Sakkal of Nine Newspapers reports that Nicolle Flint, who held the Adelaide seat of Boothby for the Liberals from 2016 to 2022 and ran unsuccessfully in 2025, is “mulling a preselection challenge” against Tony Pasin, member for the rural seat of Barker. This occurs against a backdrop of discord within the party’s South Australian branch, and its conservative camp in particular, over the bid for the state presidency by Senator Alex Antic, a close ally of Pasin’s and a rival of Flint’s. Mike Smithson at InDaily reports on ongoing speculation as to who might run against Antic when the matter is determined at the branch’s annual general meeting on September 19, one possibility being Flint herself. The meeting will also determine the order of the Senate ticket for the next election, raising the possibility of incumbents Andrew McLachlan, Kerrynne Liddle and Leah Blyth being shunted in favour of a candidate aligned with Antic.

• A by-election will be held for one of the 25 seats in the Northern Territory parliament on September 12 following the resignation of Yiŋiya Mark Guyula, who has held the eastern Arnhem Land seat of Mulka (formerly Nhulunbuy) as an independent since 2016.

DemosAU: Labor 23, Coalition 32, One Nation 22 in Victoria

A new poll suggests a less unpopular leader has done little to lift Victorian Labor three months out from the election.

DemosAU/Premier National have a poll of Victorian state voting intention that paints a picture fundamentally unchanged from before the Labor leadership change, with Labor up two points from June to 23%, the Coalition also up two to 32%, One Nation down one to 22% and the Greens down two to 13%. The Coalition holds an unchanged two-party lead over Labor of 55-45. Jess Wilson records a 43-34 lead over Ben Carroll on preferred premier, compared with Wilson’s 47-28 lead over Jacinta Allan. Wilson’s personal ratings are 35% positive (up three), 41% neutral (down five) and 24% negative (up two), while Carroll is on 21% positive, 42% neutral and 37% negative, compared with Allan’s 18%, 25% and 57%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Tuesday from a sample of 1007.

As noted in the post below, a Victorian state poll from Resolve Strategic in the Nine Newspapers is likely over the coming days.

UPDATE: The Age reports the monthly Resolve Strategic poll has Labor down two to 25%, the Coalition steady on 27%, One Nation up one to 23% and the Greens steady on 12%. A three-way preferred premier question has Jess Wilson on 26%, Ben Carroll on 20% and One Nation state president, Pakenham and prospective leader Warren Pickering on 10%, with 44% undecided. The poll was conducted Sunday to Saturday from a sample of 1000.

Resolve Strategic: Labor 28, One Nation 26, Coalition 23 (open thread)

No change whatsoever in voting intention in the monthly Resolve Strategic poll, which features further questions on budget measures and immigration.

Nine Newspapers reports the latest monthly Resolve Strategic poll records no change on voting intention since last month, with Labor on 28%, One Nation on 26%, the Coalition on 23% and the Greens on 12%. Anthony Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is down two to 37%, with poor and very poor steady on 53%. Angus Taylor is down a point on both to 40% and 33%, while Pauline Hanson is at 46% (up one on last month) and 41% (last month’s result was not reported). A three-way preferred prime minister question has Albanese down a point to 32%, Angus Taylor down two to 19% and Pauline Hanson up one to 26%. Further detail can be found on a redesigned Resolve Monitor display on the Nine Newspapers sites.

A series of questions the series has posed since the May budget offer the government some encouragement. Over four monthly iterations, support for winding back negative gearing has gone from 35% to 33% to 37% to 35%, with opposition going from 21% to 26% to 23% to 20%; while support for changes to the capital gains tax discount has gone from 36% to 31% to 35% to 35%, with opposition going from 21% to 31% to 24% to 21%. The poll also finds 60% support for the objective of bringing house prices down, down one on last month, with only 10% opposed, up one. Labor does less well out of a question on its handling of immigration: 26% says it has handled it in “a carefully planned and managed way”, with 54% rating it “unplanned and unmanaged”. Fifty-six per cent said they would support stricter visa controls, with only 14% opposed.

The poll was conducted Sunday to Saturday from a sample of 2256, a temporary increase on the usual 1600 or so. This allows the surveys to double as monthly polls of state voting intention in Victoria ahead of its election in late November, which will presumably follow over the coming days. On that note, a Victorian poll from DemosAU/Premier National was published today, which I will have a post on overnight.

UK Clacton parliamentary by-election live

Nigel Farage set for a massive win over Count Binface after resigning to recontest Clacton, but Labour takes the lead in national polls. Three Canadian federal by-elections will be held on August 31.

Live Commentary

3:37pm Wikipedia has the percentages. Farage wins by 63.3-26.9 over Binface. Rejoin EU was the next highest with 1.4%. That’s a 17.1-point swing to Farage from the 2024 election result. The Survation poll overstated Farage, but he still won very easily.

3:09pm Results are not fully declared yet, but Farage has received over 22,000 votes to Binface’s nearly 9,500.

2:37pm The Clacton result is expected to be declared in the next hour.

12:27pm Farage won’t be attending the declaration of the result ceremony.

11:59am Farage says “it’s a convincing, overwhelming win” for him at the by-election.

11:29am Official turnout for the by-election was 44.4%, down from 58.7% in 2024.

11am Farage’s scrutineers seem confident that he’ll win more votes than he did in 2024 despite lower overall turnout.

9:44am Friday The BBC’s live blog of the Clacton count is here. Provisional turnout was “around 43%”, down from 58.7% at the 2024 general election.

6:20pm ChrisC in comments says the 34 candidates for Clacton, who all need to be listed on one ballot paper, mean it will take a long time to get a result. The BBC is estimating a declaration time between 2pm and 4pm AEST Friday.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Polls close at 7am AEST Friday for a UK parliamentary by-election in Clacton. The populist right Reform’s leader, Nigel Farage, resigned to recontest on July 7. No other well-known party is contesting this by-election. A total of 34 candidates are standing, breaking the previous record of 26 for a by-election in 2008.

A mid to late July Survation poll, from a small sample of 265, gave Farage a massive 73-20 lead over joke candidate Count Binface with 7% for others. Although this sample size would give a 6% margin of error, Farage will still win easily. In 2024, Farage defeated the Conservatives in Clacton by 46.2-27.9 with 16.2% for Labour.

The Election Maps UK aggregate of national polls has Labour leading with 25.6% (up 2.2 points since my July 31 article), followed by Reform at 24.4% (down 0.1), the Conservatives 20.0% (down 0.2), the Greens 11.0% (down 0.7), the Liberal Democrats 10.6% (down 0.5) and the populist right Restore 3.5% (up 0.8). It’s the first time Labour has led in this aggregate since March 2025 and their biggest lead since January 2025.

Seat projections give Labour 213 of the 650 seats, with Reform on 152, the Conservatives 104, the Lib Dems 76, the Scottish National Party 42 and the Greens 20. A progressive majority could be formed by Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP.

US updates

I had an article for The Conversation on Wednesday on Donald Trump’s ratings, prospects at the November 3 midterm elections and the US economy. In Nate Silver’s midterm forecast model, Democrats have a 56% chance to gain control of the federal Senate and an 86% chance to gain control of the House.

Republicans currently lead in the House of Representatives by 219-212 over Democrats with four vacancies. In mid-June, two Democrats qualified for the California 14 runoff next Tuesday and in late July two Democrats qualified for the Georgia 13 runoff on August 25, so Republicans’ lead will soon shrink to 219-214.

No special election has been scheduled for the remaining two vacancies (one Republican, one Democratic), which both occurred in mid-April. These two seats are likely to remain vacant until the general election.

Three Canadian federal by-elections on August 31

Three Canadian federal by-elections will occur on August 31. As in the UK, Canada uses first-past-the-post for national elections. At the April 2025 Canadian election, the centre-left Liberals defeated the Conservatives in North Vancouver-Capilano by 59.8-33.7 with 4.2% for the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP). The Liberals defeated the Conservatives in Beaches-East York by 67.8-23.5 with 6.9% for the NDP.

The most interesting by=election is likely to be in the Quebec seat of Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, which the Conservatives won in 2025 with 34.1%. The separatist Quebec Bloc and the Liberals were nearly tied (31.2% Bloc, 31.1% Liberals). A mid-July poll gave the Bloc 30%, the Liberals 28% and the Conservatives 26%.

The Liberals currently hold 172 of the 343 House of Commons seats including four vacancies. Even if they lost all three August 31 by-elections, they would retain a bare majority. They should at least win the two seats they currently hold, increasing to 174 seats. Six further by-elections are likely in the near future, with two due to pending resignations of Liberal MPs. The Liberals have recently surged to lead the Conservatives by double-digit margins in Canadian federal polls.

Upcoming elections in Brazil and Israel

The first round of the Brazilian presidential election will be held on October 4, with a runoff on October 25 if nobody wins a first round majority. Incumbent Workers Party president Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former populist right president Jair Bolsonaro, are the two main candidates. Six polls conducted in August of a likely runoff range from a tie to a nine-point Lula lead.

Israel uses national proportional representation with a 3.25% threshold to elect a total of 120 MPs. Most polls ahead of the October 27 election have Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing governing coalition well below the 61 seats needed for a majority, with the big exception the government-aligned Filber poll. However, even if the governing coalition loses its majority, it may be difficult to form an alternative government.

Federal polls: YouGov and Roy Morgan (open thread)

A volatile poll series finds Labor at a new low, while a more stable one records little change.

The fortnightly YouGov poll, which is now branded News24 Pulse following Sky News’ name change, is little changed on last time: Labor is steady on 28%, One Nation down one to 24%, the Coalition steady on 22% and the Greens down one to 12%. Respondent-allocated two-party preferred results have Labor leading the Coalition 52-48, which is in from 53-47, and One Nation by 56-44, which is unchanged. Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 36% and up two on disapproval to 57%, while Angus Taylor is up two to 35% and down three to 46%. Albanese holds a preferred prime minister lead of 42-38 over Angus Taylor, in from 43-37, and leads Pauline Hanson 51-38, in from 52-37. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Monday – the sample size remains to be seen, but would have been around 1500.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor down two points to 25.5%, their worst result for the term, but with the Coalition also down, by a point-and-a-half to 22%. One Nation is up two to 26%, while the Greens are up half to 15.5%, their equal best result for the term. Respondent-allocated two-party results have Labor leading both One Nation and the Coalition by 53-47, which is respectively in from 54-46 and out from 52-48, while Labor’s lead on previous election preferences narrows from 52.5-47.5 to 52-48. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1647.

Victorian election minus 16 weeks

Two new state polls from Victoria, plus sundry preselection news.

Two new bits of state polling from Victoria:

• Common Threads, an organisation that supports the state’s First Peoples treaty process, has published results from a multi-level regression and post-stratification poll conducted for it by YouGov, though its field work period of June 16 to July 10 long predates the leadership change. The poll has statewide voting intention results are Coalition 26%, One Nation 24%, Labor 23% and Greens 13%, with the Coalition leading Labor 53.8-46.2 on two-party preferred, but its main purpose is to produce produced modelled estimates of voting intention at seat level. The median forecast is for a hung parliament with 39 seats for the Coalition, 29 for Labor, 17 for One Nation and three for the Greens. Fifteen of the projected One Nation gains are at Labor’s expense, with a projection of eight seats being won by the Nationals (including Jacinta Allan’s seat of Bendigo East) being quite a bit healthier than their outlook in other contexts. Extensive detail on seat projections, demographics and responses to the questions on the First Nations treaty are featured in the full report. The sample for the poll is 4003 – high for a normal poll, but no the low side for an MRP poll.

• Roy Morgan had a poll conducted last Wednesday to Friday by SMS, a method I have my doubts about. It suggests only modest change since the last such poll in April, with the Coalition up two to 26%, Labor up half a point to 26%, One Nation down one to 23.5% and the Greens down one to 12.5%. Two-party preferred results had the Coalition leading Labor 51-49, reversing the result from April; Labor leading One Nation 56-44, out from 53.5-46.5; and the Coalition leading One Nation 63.5-36.5, out from 59-41. The sample for the poll was 2084.

Preselection news:

• The Liberal Party’s state executive voted to install Melbourne deputy lord mayor Roshena Campbell as its lead candidate for the Western Metropolitan upper house region on Friday. This filled the vacancy created three weeks earlier when the state executive voted unanimously to disendorse Moira Deeming. Campbell was chosen by 12 votes to seven ahead of incumbent Trung Luu, who has now nominated for a separate process to fill the second position on the ticket, from which he won election in 2022.

• The Herald Sun’s Backroom Baz column reports that Eastern Victoria region was missing from One Nation’s announcement of its lead upper house candidates because of a last-minute decision for party state president Warren Pickering to run in the lower house seat of Pakenham instead. The party has since announced its Eastern Victoria candidate will be Greg Hansford, who ran for the anti-lockdown Freedom Party at the 2022 election, and as One Nation’s federal candidate for Gippsland at the 2025 federal election.

• The Australian’s Victoria Ink column reported last month that Moonee Valley councillor Samantha Byrne had been preselected as Liberal candidate for Ben Carroll’s loseable seat of Niddrie ahead of Stefano Emodi, and related the further endorsement of candidates in Yan Yean (Amanda Dow), Ripon (Megan Read) and South Barwon (Libby Pettit). Elsewhere, the Herald Sun reports police detective Paul O’Halloran will be the Liberal candidate in Mordialloc.

Newspoll: Labor 29, One Nation 29, Coalition 18 (open thread)

The latest Newspoll finds improved personal ratings for Angus Taylor failing to translate on voting intention.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor down a point on three weeks ago to 29%, its weakest result since the government came to power; the Coalition down a point to 18%, a point higher than its record low in late June; One Nation down a point to 29%; and the Greens up two to 14%.

The most substantial change in the poll is an improvement in Angus Taylor’s personal ratings, his approval up four to 34% and disapproval down five to 46%. Only net ratings are provided for Anthony Albanese, who is down from minus 18 to minus 22 (UPDATE: down two on disapproval to 37% and up two on disapproval to 59%), and Pauline Hanson, who is down from neutral to minus three (UPDATE: down one on disapproval to 46% and up two on disapproval to 49%). Albanese’s lead over Taylor on preferred prime minister narrows from 44-36 to 44-37, while a three-way question has Anthony Albanese steady on 46%, Pauline Hanson down one to 31% and Angus Taylor up one to 23%. The report also says that some manner of head-to-head result has Albanese leading Hanson 56-44. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1242.

Page 1 of 613
1 2 … 613