German Saxony-Anhalt state election live

The populist right AfD has a realistic chance to win its first ever parliamentary majority at a German state election with just over 40% of votes in polls.

Live Commentary

12:08pm Turnout for this election was an all-time high of 77.8% (up 17.5% since 2021).

11:19am (Three paragraph entry) With all votes counted, the AfD has won 43.8% of the vote (up 23.0% since 2021), the CDU 17.2% (down 19.9%), the SPD 9.3% (up 0.9%), the Greens 8.9% (up 3.0%), the Left 8.6% (down 2.4%), the BSW 5.3% (new) and the FDP 2.6% (down 3.8%).

Owing to the removal of the extra 14 seats from 2021, seat changes will sum to -14. The AfD won 39 of the 83 seats, three short of a majority (up 16), the CDU 15 (down 25), the SPD eight (down one), the Greens eight (up two), the Left eight (down four), the BSW five (new) and the FDP zero (down seven). To keep the AfD from government will require an alliance of all five non-AfD parliamentary parties.

The AfD did slightly better than polls expected, with the CDU doing much worse. The Greens and BSW also overperformed, with the Left underperforming. The AfD had its highest vote share at a state election and a massive swing to it. In a little good news for the overall German left, the combined vote share for the SPD, Greens and Left was 26.8% (up 1.5%).

10:11am While overall seat numbers are proportional to vote share for parties that pass the 5% threshold, Saxony-Anhalt has 41 single-member seats elected by FPTP. In 2021, the CDU won 40 of these seats to one for the AfD. At this election, the AfD is winning 38 with three for the Left party. In 2021, 14 extra seats were added owing to the overhang caused by the CDU’s dominance of the single-member seats to maintain overall proportionality, but no extra seats will be needed this time, with the minimum 83 total seats elected.

9:42am With 99.6% counted, the BSW is up to 5.3%, ensuring they will win seats and deny the AfD a majority. The AfD has dropped back to 43.9%.

7:17am With 95.1% counted, the BSW remains at 5.2%, above the 5% threshold.

6:53am Monday (two paragraph entry) With 92.3% counted, the AfD has won 45.4% of the votes, but not a majority of seats as six parties cleared the 5% threshold. Current vote shares are 45.4% AfD, 16.5% CDU, 8.9% SPD, 8.8% Greens, 8.3% Left and 5.2% BSW, with the FDP well below the 5% threshold on 2.5%.

Current seats are 39 of 83 for the AfD, below the 42 needed for a majority, 16 CDU, eight SPD, eight Greens, eight Left and four BSW. We’ll need to wait for final results to confirm whether the BSW clears the 5% threshold (they’re at 5.2% currently).

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Polls close at 2am AEST Monday for today’s German Saxony-Anhalt state election. I will report results after I wake up, which should be before 7am.

This election will be held using statewide proportional representation with a 5% threshold to elect at least 83 MPs. Polls have the populist right AfD surging into the low 40s, far ahead of the conservative governing CDU who are in the low 20s. The Left party is in the low double digits and the centre-left SPD in the high single digits.

Three other parties are at or just below the 5% threshold: the Greens, pro-business FDP and economically left but socially right BSW. The Greens are at 5-6%, BSW at 3-4% and FDP at 3%, so the Greens are more likely than not to clear the threshold. If only the AfD, CDU, Left and SPD clear the threshold, the AfD would have a reasonable chance to win its first ever parliamentary majority in a state election.

At the 2021 Saxony-Anhalt election, the CDU won 40 of the 97 seats on 37.1% of the votes, the AfD 23 on 20.8%, the Left 12 on 11.0%, the SPD nine on 8.4%, the FDP seven on 6.4% and the Greens six on 5.9%. Polls conducted before that election had given the CDU 1-7 point leads over the AfD, much lower than the CDU’s actual 16.3-point margin.

The poll error in 2021 may raise expectations that the AfD will once again underperform their polls. However, it should not be assumed that poll errors will behave the same way from one election to the next. For example, polls at the 2025 Australian federal election understated Labor after overstating them in 2022 and 2019.

In German federal polls, the AfD has taken the lead from the CDU/CSU. At the February 2025 federal election, the CDU/CSU won 28.5% of the vote, the AfD 20.8%, the SPD 16.4%, the Greens 11.6% and the Left 8.8%. A coalition of the CDU/CSU and SPD was formed after that election.

Current polls have the AfD rising into the high 20s and the CDU/CSU dropping to the low 20s. There’s been little improvement in the vote share for the combined left (SPD, Greens and Left), with these parties at 40% or below in recent polls (36.8% at the last election).

There are two German state elections on September 20: Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. In Berlin, polls have the combined left-wing parties just below 50%, so the left should win that election. In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the AfD has surged ahead of the SPD after the SPD won the 2021 election by 39.6-16.7 over the AfD. The AfD will probably win the most seats, but be short of a majority.

Swedish election next Sunday

Sweden uses national PR with a 4% threshold to elect its 349 MPs. At the 2022 Swedish election, the conservative Moderates formed a government that was supported by the populist right Sweden Democrats. Polls for next Sunday’s election have the Red-Green bloc of four parties leading the right-wing bloc of four parties by low to high single digit margins. One of the right-wing parties, the Liberals, is consistently polling below the 4% threshold. If they miss the threshold, it will assist the left.

UK by-election for Starmer’s former seat coming soon

Former UK Labour PM Keir Starmer resigned as Member for Holborn and St Pancras last week. A date for the by-election has not yet been set, but it will probably occur in the next month. At the July 2024 UK general election, Starmer won 48.9% in this seat, a left-wing independent 18.9%, the Greens 10.4%, the Conservatives 7.2%, the populist right Reform 6.1% and the Liberal Democrats 5.8%. Greens leader Zack Polanski will contest.

DemosAU: Labor 37, One Nation 25, Liberal 17 in South Australia

A new poll finds Peter Malinauskas and Labor remaining in command in South Australia.

InDaily reports the quarterly South Australian state DemosAU poll has Labor up two to 37%, One Nation down one to 25%, Liberal down one to 17% and the Greens steady on 13%. A two-party preferred result is provided for Labor and One Nation, with Labor’s lead out from 56-44 to 58-42. A three-way preferred premier question has Peter Malinauskas up five to 46%, One Nation’s Cory Bernardi steady on 20% and Liberal leader Ashton Hurn reduced to third, down three to 17%.

Malinauskas’s ratings are 44% positive (up one), 37% neutral (up one) and 19% negative (down two); Hurn’s are 22% positive (up one), 54% neutral (down one) and 24% negative (steady); and Bernardi’s are 20% positive (steady), 42% neutral (up three) and 38% negative (down three). The poll was conducted August 5 to 26 from a sample of 1012. Demographic details will be available on the full report in due course on the pollster’s website.

Federal polls: Roy Morgan and Essential Research (open thread)

Labor sink to new lows on while poll series, while perking up in another.

Two markedly different federal poll results from the past few days, the more favourable for Labor being from the uneven Roy Morgan series, which has them up two-and-a-half points to 29.5%, with One Nation down three-and-a-half to 23.5%, the Coalition down half to 20.5% and the Greens down half to 13.5%. Labor is credited with two-party preferred leads on respondent-allocated preferences of 55.5-44.5 over One Nation (out from 53-47) and 56-44 over the Coalition (out from 52-48), and a lead of 55-45 over the Coalition on previous election preference flows (out from 52.5-47.5). The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1585.

Conversely, the monthly Essential Research poll gives Labor its worst result of the term, down five on the primary vote to 26% with the Coalition up four to 26%, One Nation down two to 23% and the Greens up one to 13%, with an undecided component accounting for 5%. The Coalition leads the pollster’s 2PP+ measure by 50-45, after Labor led 48-47 last time. Anthony Albanese is down three on approval to 35% and up four on disapproval to 56%, while Angus Taylor is respectively down one to 32% and down three to 41%. The regular national mood question has the “right direction” response down five to a new low of 23%, with wrong direction up six to a new high of 59%. The full report has further questions on workplace relations, social media and the “manosphere”. The poll was presumably conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a ample of a bit over 1000, though details are not yet available.

Three Canadian federal by-elections live

Today’s by-elections feature one in Quebec which the Conservatives won narrowly in 2025. Also: updates on the US midterms and a possible AfD majority in a German state election next Sunday.

Live Commentary

9:48am Wednesday (Two paragraph entry) With all 204 booths reporting in NVC, results are 58.6% Liberals (down 1.3% since 2025), 29.2% Tories (down 4.5%), 8.7% Greens (up 7.0%) and 3.1% NDP (down 1.1%). The Liberal winning margin of 29.4 points far exceeded the poll that gave them a 16.5-point margin.

The Liberals have governed in Canada since winning the October 2015 election. In late 2024, they had looked certain to lose the 2025 election in a landslide. The Trump factor helped the Liberals recover to win the 2025 election, and he is continuing to hurt the Canadian Tories, who suffered moderate to huge swings against them in all three by-elections.

4:32pm With all 200 polls reporting in BEY, results are 55.7% Liberals (down 12.1% since 2025), 25.8% NDP (up 18.9%) and 15.5% Tories (down 8.0%). There was a big swing to the NDP at the expense of both the Liberals and Tories. The one poll in this seat overstated the Tories and understated the NDP.

2:51pm With all 212 polls reporting in CLF, results are 51.3% Liberals (up 20.2% since the 2025 election), 32.9% Bloc (up 1.7%) and 12.5% Tories (down 21.6%). This huge win for the Liberals was far bigger than in the two August polls that gave them 3-5 point leads over the Bloc (actual 18.4 points).

1:59pm The CBC has called NVC for the Liberals, as they lead the Tories by 57.9-27.6 with 9.7% for the Greens after 105 of 204 polls. The Liberals will win all three by-elections today (two holds and one gain) and once again have a majority of seats with 173 of the 343.

1:11pm After 10 of 204 polls in from NVC, the Liberals lead the Tories by 55.1-28.9 with 11.7% for the Greens. This should be called for the Liberals soon.

12:54pm In NVC, the Liberals lead the Tories by 51.9-32.1 with 11.% for the Greens and 4.5% NDP after 5 of 204 polls in.

12:51pm The CBC has called Liberal wins in CLF and BEY. In CLF, the Liberals lead the Bloc by 49.1-34.1 with 12.9% Tories after 125 of 212 polls. In BEY, the Liberals are leading the NDP by 55.0-25.6 with 16.0% Tories after 115 of 200 polls.

12:19pm The Liberals are looking very likely to gain CLF from the Tories. With 30 of 212 in, they lead the Bloc by 48.7-32.5 with 12.7% for the Tories. In BEY, the Liberals lead the NDP by 50.0-27.2 with 18.1% for the Tories.

12:07pm After 10 of 212 booths from CLF, the Liberals lead the Bloc by 48.3-32.4 with 15.6% for the Tories. In BEY, after 5 of 200, the Liberals lead the NDP by 52.6-26.7 with 11.2% Tories.

12:01pm I’ll be using abbreviations: CLF for Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, BEY for Beaches-East York and NVC for North Vancouver-Capilano. Canada doesn’t have booth-matched results, so we’ll need to wait for a large amount of polling stations before narrow wins can be called. The CBC has results for CLF and BEY on separate pages.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Polls close at 11:30am AEST today for federal Canadian by-elections in Beaches-East York and Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, and at 12 noon for the North Vancouver-Capilano by-election. Canada uses first-past-the-post for national and provincial elections.

At the April 2025 Canadian election, the centre-left Liberals defeated the Conservatives in North Vancouver-Capilano by 59.8-33.7 with 4.2% for the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP). The Liberals defeated the Conservatives in Beaches-East York by 67.8-23.5 with 6.9% for the NDP. August Poliwave polls gave the Liberals a 16.5-point lead over the Conservatives in North Vancouver-Capilano and a 34-point lead in Beaches-East York.

The most interesting by=election is likely to be in the Quebec seat of Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, which the Conservatives won in 2025 with 34.1%. The separatist Quebec Bloc and the Liberals were nearly tied (31.2% Bloc, 31.1% Liberals). Two August polls gave the Liberals 3-5 point leads over the Bloc with the Conservatives a distant third.

The Liberals currently hold 170 of the 343 House of Commons seats including eight vacancies, so they need to win at least two of today’s by-elections to reach the 172 needed for a majority. Six further by-elections are expected in the near future, with two due to resignations of Liberal MPs. The Liberals have recently surged to lead the Conservatives by double-digit margins in Canadian federal polls.

Also of interest in Canada, a referendum in the right-wing province of Alberta will occur on October 19 proposing that Alberta secede from Canada. Even if the referendum passes, it would only direct Alberta to hold a binding referendum at a later date. Three mid to late August polls have “Remain in Canada” leading by 28 to 52 points.

US updates

At the November 3 US midterm elections, all 435 federal House of Representatives seats and 35 of the 100 senators will be up for election. In 2024 elections, Republicans won the House by 220-215 over Democrats and the Senate by 53-47.

In Nate Silver’s midterm election forecast, Democrats currently have a 56% chance to gain control of the Senate and an 85% chance to gain the House (respectively 57% and 86% in my August 12 US article for The Conversation). Democrats lead Republicans by 50.1-42.4 (7.7 points) in the national generic ballot, down from 8.1 points previously. Donald Trump’s net approval is –19.4 (57.7% disapprove, 38.3% approve), up from -20.4.

Democrats are leading in Senate contests by three points or less in Ohio, Texas and Alaska, all states that Trump won by double-digit margins in 2024. This explains why they are narrow favourites to win the Senate.

Alaska uses a jungle primary with the top four candidates qualifying for the general election using preferential voting. At the August 18 Senate primary, Democrat Mary Peltola won 49.5%, Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan 41.4% and another Dan Sullivan 2.5%; he tried to benefit from name confusion. If these results were replicated in November, Peltola would win.

German state election could be first AfD majority

Next Sunday’s Saxony-Anhalt German state election will be held using statewide proportional representation with a 5% threshold. Polls have the populist right AfD surging into the low 40s, far ahead of the conservative governing CDU who are in the low 20s. The Left party is in the low double digits and the centre-left SPD in the high single digits.

Three other parties are at or just below the 5% threshold. If only the AfD, CDU, Left and SPD clear the threshold, the AfD would have a reasonable chance to win its first ever majority in a state election.

Upcoming New Zealand election

The New Zealand election will be held on November 7 using the Mixed Member Proportional system where parties need to win at least 5% of the party vote or a single-member electorate to qualify for a proportional share of the 120 seats.

The current right-wing governing coalition of National, ACT and NZ First is likely to defeat the left-wing coalition of Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori. But the right may be denied a majority owing to the centrist Opportunity having more than 5% in the latest polls. I wrote about this election for the NZ edition of The Conversation last Tuesday.

Donation drive

Time for the Poll Bludger’s bi-monthly virtual tin-rattle. This instalment’s case for special pleading is made by the very fine job this site did in keeping the nation posted about the Secret Harbour by-election on Saturday night (hats off to the ABC television news for showing a dejected Labor campaign worker viewing the results on my site rather than theirs), and the outstanding quality of the Victorian state election guide on which I’ve been very hard at work and will hopefully have ready to roll in a couple of weeks. Donations are gratefully received through “become a supporter” buttons at the top of the site and bottom of each page.

DemosAU: Labor 32, Coalition 25, One Nation 23 in New South Wales

Some badly needed good news for the New South Wales Coalition, which has perked up a bit in a new state poll.

The Daily Telegraph reports (though seemingly not online) that latest DemosAU poll of state voting intention in New South Wales has the Coalition bouncing back five points to 25%, mostly at the expense of One Nation who are down four from a record high to 23%. Labor and the Greens are steady on 32% and 13% respectively. The pollster provides a two-party figure with Labor leading 57-43 based on preference flows in 2023, but cautions that this “factors in a large exhaustion rate for One Nation voters” that could be lower in the event of a preference deal. The poll also features upper house voting intention results with Labor on 31%, the Coalition on 25%, One Nation on 24% and the Greens on 14%, and a seat projection showing 20 or perhaps 21 seats out of 40 going to a broadly defined right.

Leadership ratings, which did not feature in the June poll, find Chris Minns at 37% positive, 41% neutral and 22% negative, Kellie Sloane is at 25%, 55% and 20%, and Chris Minns leading 44-26 on preferred premier. Further questions find 55% support for the federal-state gun buyback scheme with 27% opposed, and 28% of a view that the state is headed in the right direction compared with 49% for wrong direction (a uniform pattern of such polling of late). The poll was conducted August 19 to 26 from a sample of 1028; the full report features demographic breakdowns and should be available on the pollster’s website over the next day or so.

Further news of relevance to the election in March:

• One Nation has announced Mike Newman as its prospective parliamentary leader and candidate for the Labor-held Hunter region seat of Cessnock. Newman served from 2022 to 2024 as one of the state’s trade and investment commissioners, a role made famous by former Nationals leader John Barilaro and abolished when Labor came to power. The party’s upper house ticket will be headed by Stuart Bonds, who has twice achieved strong results in the federal seat for Hunter.

• The Daily Telegraph’s The Sauce column reports Tara Moriarty has been reduced to seventh position on Labor’s upper house ticket after leading it in 2019. Daniel Mookhey and Penny Sharpe will head the ticket, followed by newcomer Bernard Govind, incumbent Anthony D’Adam, and newcomers Mark Morey and Asren Pugh. Not featured are incumbents Mark Buttigieg, who reportedly lost the support of the Right because the Electrical Trades Union was no longer aligned with it, and Greg Donnelly, who is retiring.

• Rod Bruem of the Ballina News Daily reports Byron Shire councillor Janet Swain and former NBN News cameraman Lachlan Hall have nominated for Labor preselection in Ballina, which will be vacated at the election with the retirement of Greens member Tamara Smith.

Federal polls: Newspoll and RedBridge Group (open thread)

One new federal poll has One Nation a point ahead of Labor, while another has it one point behind.

The Australian reports Newspoll has One Nation edging back into the lead on the primary vote, gaining one point on three weeks ago to 30% while Labor holds steady on 29%, with the Coalition up a point to 19% and the Greens down one to 13%. Anthony Albanese was up a point on approval to 38% and steady on 59% disapproval, Angus Taylor was down one to 33% and up four to 50%, and Pauline Hanson was up one to 47% and down one to 48%. Albanese’s lead over Taylor on preferred prime minister was out from 44-37 to 44-35, while a three-way question was entirely unchanged on last time with Albanese on 46%, Taylor on 23% and Pauline Hanson on 31%. The poll also has a question on housing prices which differs from others showing support for a fall in including a “stay about the same” option, which was favoured by 32%, with 30% favouring an increase and 32% a decrease. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1243.

The latest monthly RedBridge Group/Accent Research poll for the Financial Review has Labor edging back in front of One Nation on the primary vote, holding steady at 29% while One Nation drops three to 28%, with the Coalition steady on 22% and the Greens up two on an unusually weak result last time to 12%. Labor’s two-party lead over One Nation is in from 53-47 to 52-48; the Coalition retains a 52-48 lead over Labor on respondent-allocated preferences (which suggests RedBridge Group is finding more One Nation voters favouring the Coalition than is Roy Morgan), while Labor leads 52-48 on previous election preferences compared with a 50-50 result last time. A three-way preferred prime minister result is little changed, with Anthony Albanese down a point to 31%, Pauline Hanson steady at 24% and Angus Taylor steady at 15%. There are also approval ratings that I will hold back on reporting until I see the full results. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1006.

Secret Harbour by-election live

Live results and commentary from Western Australia’s Secret Harbour state by-election.
Projected 3CP Projected 2CP Win Probability

Click here for full display of Secret Harbour by-election results

Election night commentary

12:20am. The Secret Harbour Early Voting Centre has reported its two-candidate numbers, which closes proceedings for the night. One Nation have a 7.0% margin on both the two-candidate count and my projection, the latter of which I’ll shortly be turning off. The preference flow in favour of Labor has faded a little to 55.2-44.8, now that I’m including all vote types and not just booth votes.

10:20pm. Whatever doubt might have remained has been demolished by the 13,000 votes that have reported on the primary vote — which, contrary to earlier indications, can only be both its early voting and election day results — and it turns out to be One Nation’s best result, at 42.3% of the primary vote, and only an average one for Labor. I’m now projecting a One Nation winning margin of nearly 6%, and I believe that will increase when I have a more definitive preference flow calculation.

10:00pm. The WAEC advises says it “anticipates” that the Secret Harbour Early Voting Centre will report this evening, which it has until midnight to do.

8:49pm. Bit of a lull in the results. We are yet to hear from Coastal Lakes College, from which we can probably expect about 1000 formal votes, or from Secret Harbour Early Voting Centre. The latter, be warned, will report in two stages, starting with about 1000 votes actually cast there on election day. The early votes will come later — probably quite a lot later, and perhaps not tonight. The WAEC reports 12,869 early votes were cast, which “includes mobile polling and Interstate voting”. The former includes 217 votes that have reported their results, which may be the lot, and it also includes the 60 votes cast at the WAEC centre in Perth. Interstate votes I don’t know about, but I’m guessing it’s not many. So presumably there will be upwards of 10,000 Secret Harbour Early Voting Centre early votes in due course. If they break upwards of 53-47 to Labor, we’re looking at a different result.

8:39pm. If you’re enjoying the coverage, please consider rewarding all the hard work that goes into my results system (and everything else) with a donation through the “become a supporter” buttons at the top of the page and the bottom of the post.

8:29pm. Presumably because the ABC has switched off booth-matching and is now reporting the raw TCP as its projection. My own system tries to do something more elaborate with non-booth vote types.

8:22pm. The ABC’s estimate now aligns with my own in giving One Nation a margin of about 3%.

8:19pm. As ever, one remaining wild card: many thousands of early votes still to come. Though a lot of anecdotal evidence to suggest Labor won’t do particularly well out of them.

8:10pm. I note that my system’s projection is very close to the raw TCP result, whereas the ABC earlier projection of the One Nation margin has come down only modestly — 2.7% raw, 2.8% from me, 6.5% at the ABC. Despite what my projection says, Labor wouldn’t be conceding quite yet, but it’s undoubtedly not looking good for them.

8:09pm. There are now five booths in on TCP, and contrary to what I said two updates ago, that 60-40 split in favour of Labor is sticking.

8:03pm. Six booths in now on the primary vote, and the more recent ones have been even worse for Labor than the earlier ones. Nothing further on TCP though.

7:56pm. I suspect that 60% flow of preferences to Labor will fade as more results come in: a big component of it is Port Kennedy Primary School, which was a particularly strong result for the Greens relative to the Liberals.

7:56pm. My system is still calling a One Nation win, but the margin has been slashed, and prima facie the call looks too aggressive for my tastes.

7:52pm. The preference flow is a surprise: 60-40 in favour of Labor. With the next update my system should start using that flow instead of an estimate that was going nearly 55-45 the other way, and there’s a good chance my call of a One Nation win will be retracted.

7:48pm. The WAEC has released the hounds on the TCP count, which it is correctly conducting on a Labor-versus-One Nation basis.

7:47pm. A second batch of postals has been added, the total thereof being up from 1277 to 2597, and it does nothing to change the picture.

7:40pm. There is a consistent picture of a 20% drop in the Labor vote. The One Nation swings are more uneven — the mobile result is the big outlier, probably because it’s attending different places from last time.

7:37pm. It’s all happening now: my 90% ceiling is off and the call for a One Nation win is back on. That’s with a projected margin of 7.7%, which is a lot gentler for Labor than the ABC’s 10.5%. Both of us are applying speculative preference flow estimates, and there are lots of things we might be doing differently in terms of getting swings out of the postals.

7:36pm. I just slapped an arbitrary 90% ceiling on the One Nation probability, just in time for the first polling booth to report from Port Kennedy Primary School, which turns out to be consistent with the impression of One Nation leading on the primary vote and therefore very likely to win.

7:34pm. No, these are “mobile polling” results — I think the WAEC temporarily added them to the wrong row. My point still stands: I will want to see some polling booth results before I have confidence in my projections.

7:31pm. The Western Australian Electoral Commission booth is on. My system is calling it, but I wish it wasn’t — neither of the two results that are in are easy to match to the last election. Uniquely, this booth wasn’t in operation at all then, so I just allocated it 5% of the absent votes cast in 2025 for booth-matching purposes.

7:24pm. My preference flow estimates are more bullish for One Nation than the ABC’s — they’ve got the margin at 6.9%, I’ve got 8.7%.

7:16pm. We finally have results: a batch of 1277 postals, which are hard to booth-match with, so I’d add a note of caution to my projections. Early batches tend to be more conservative but my swing calculation doesn’t accommodate that — Labor had better hope that that’s what’s causing my projection of One Nation winning by an 8.7% margin.

6pm. Polls have closed for Western Australia’s Secret Harbour by-election. As always, the best place to follow the results as they come in is through this site’s second-to-none results facility (see link above), featuring swings, projections and probability estimates, a table recording results and swings at booth level, and – when you press the “activate” button at the bottom of the page – a map display that does likewise. I presume the Western Australian Electoral Commission will be conducting a notional two-candidate count between Labor and One Nation, despite what the relevant table on my results page shows. However, I believe that will be in the realms of mystery until they start publishing results from it, which the WAEC uniquely does not do until it’s convinced it has picked the right two candidates. With 16 candidates, first results could be a while coming.

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