Secret Harbour by-election live

Live results and commentary from Western Australia’s Secret Harbour state by-election.
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Election night commentary

12:20am. The Secret Harbour Early Voting Centre has reported its two-candidate numbers, which closes proceedings for the night. One Nation have a 7.0% margin on both the two-candidate count and my projection, the latter of which I’ll shortly be turning off. The preference flow in favour of Labor has faded a little to 55.2-44.8, now that I’m including all vote types and not just booth votes.

10:20pm. Whatever doubt might have remained has been demolished by the 13,000 votes that have reported on the primary vote — which, contrary to earlier indications, can only be both its early voting and election day results — and it turns out to be One Nation’s best result, at 42.3% of the primary vote, and only an average one for Labor. I’m now projecting a One Nation winning margin of nearly 6%, and I believe that will increase when I have a more definitive preference flow calculation.

10:00pm. The WAEC advises says it “anticipates” that the Secret Harbour Early Voting Centre will report this evening, which it has until midnight to do.

8:49pm. Bit of a lull in the results. We are yet to hear from Coastal Lakes College, from which we can probably expect about 1000 formal votes, or from Secret Harbour Early Voting Centre. The latter, be warned, will report in two stages, starting with about 1000 votes actually cast there on election day. The early votes will come later — probably quite a lot later, and perhaps not tonight. The WAEC reports 12,869 early votes were cast, which “includes mobile polling and Interstate voting”. The former includes 217 votes that have reported their results, which may be the lot, and it also includes the 60 votes cast at the WAEC centre in Perth. Interstate votes I don’t know about, but I’m guessing it’s not many. So presumably there will be upwards of 10,000 Secret Harbour Early Voting Centre early votes in due course. If they break upwards of 53-47 to Labor, we’re looking at a different result.

8:39pm. If you’re enjoying the coverage, please consider rewarding all the hard work that goes into my results system (and everything else) with a donation through the “become a supporter” buttons at the top of the page and the bottom of the post.

8:29pm. Presumably because the ABC has switched off booth-matching and is now reporting the raw TCP as its projection. My own system tries to do something more elaborate with non-booth vote types.

8:22pm. The ABC’s estimate now aligns with my own in giving One Nation a margin of about 3%.

8:19pm. As ever, one remaining wild card: many thousands of early votes still to come. Though a lot of anecdotal evidence to suggest Labor won’t do particularly well out of them.

8:10pm. I note that my system’s projection is very close to the raw TCP result, whereas the ABC earlier projection of the One Nation margin has come down only modestly — 2.7% raw, 2.8% from me, 6.5% at the ABC. Despite what my projection says, Labor wouldn’t be conceding quite yet, but it’s undoubtedly not looking good for them.

8:09pm. There are now five booths in on TCP, and contrary to what I said two updates ago, that 60-40 split in favour of Labor is sticking.

8:03pm. Six booths in now on the primary vote, and the more recent ones have been even worse for Labor than the earlier ones. Nothing further on TCP though.

7:56pm. I suspect that 60% flow of preferences to Labor will fade as more results come in: a big component of it is Port Kennedy Primary School, which was a particularly strong result for the Greens relative to the Liberals.

7:56pm. My system is still calling a One Nation win, but the margin has been slashed, and prima facie the call looks too aggressive for my tastes.

7:52pm. The preference flow is a surprise: 60-40 in favour of Labor. With the next update my system should start using that flow instead of an estimate that was going nearly 55-45 the other way, and there’s a good chance my call of a One Nation win will be retracted.

7:48pm. The WAEC has released the hounds on the TCP count, which it is correctly conducting on a Labor-versus-One Nation basis.

7:47pm. A second batch of postals has been added, the total thereof being up from 1277 to 2597, and it does nothing to change the picture.

7:40pm. There is a consistent picture of a 20% drop in the Labor vote. The One Nation swings are more uneven — the mobile result is the big outlier, probably because it’s attending different places from last time.

7:37pm. It’s all happening now: my 90% ceiling is off and the call for a One Nation win is back on. That’s with a projected margin of 7.7%, which is a lot gentler for Labor than the ABC’s 10.5%. Both of us are applying speculative preference flow estimates, and there are lots of things we might be doing differently in terms of getting swings out of the postals.

7:36pm. I just slapped an arbitrary 90% ceiling on the One Nation probability, just in time for the first polling booth to report from Port Kennedy Primary School, which turns out to be consistent with the impression of One Nation leading on the primary vote and therefore very likely to win.

7:34pm. No, these are “mobile polling” results — I think the WAEC temporarily added them to the wrong row. My point still stands: I will want to see some polling booth results before I have confidence in my projections.

7:31pm. The Western Australian Electoral Commission booth is on. My system is calling it, but I wish it wasn’t — neither of the two results that are in are easy to match to the last election. Uniquely, this booth wasn’t in operation at all then, so I just allocated it 5% of the absent votes cast in 2025 for booth-matching purposes.

7:24pm. My preference flow estimates are more bullish for One Nation than the ABC’s — they’ve got the margin at 6.9%, I’ve got 8.7%.

7:16pm. We finally have results: a batch of 1277 postals, which are hard to booth-match with, so I’d add a note of caution to my projections. Early batches tend to be more conservative but my swing calculation doesn’t accommodate that — Labor had better hope that that’s what’s causing my projection of One Nation winning by an 8.7% margin.

6pm. Polls have closed for Western Australia’s Secret Harbour by-election. As always, the best place to follow the results as they come in is through this site’s second-to-none results facility (see link above), featuring swings, projections and probability estimates, a table recording results and swings at booth level, and – when you press the “activate” button at the bottom of the page – a map display that does likewise. I presume the Western Australian Electoral Commission will be conducting a notional two-candidate count between Labor and One Nation, despite what the relevant table on my results page shows. However, I believe that will be in the realms of mystery until they start publishing results from it, which the WAEC uniquely does not do until it’s convinced it has picked the right two candidates. With 16 candidates, first results could be a while coming.

Western Australia: DemosAU poll and Secret Harbour by-election

Days out from a by-election in which the party looks more than competitive, a statewide poll records a three-point gain in support for One Nation.

Three days out from the state’s highly anticipated Secret Harbour by-election, The West Australian reports on a DemosAU poll that has One Nation up three points since June to 21%, with Labor steady on 33%, the Liberals down two to 21% and the Nationals up one to 4%, and the Greens steady on on 12%. A two-party preferred measure based on previous election preference flows has Labor’s lead over the Coalition out from 53-47 to 54-46. Roger Cook’s positive rating is down one to 34%, with neutral up three to 39% and negative down two to 27%; Basil Zempilas is down one to 30%, up two to 37% and down one to 33%; and Cook’s lead as preferred premier is out from 44-33 to 46-32. The poll was published August 6 to 25 from a sample of 658. Extensive breakdowns are featured in the full release that will shortly be published on the pollster’s website.

Nothing in the way of a poll has emerged from Secret Harbour, the closest thing being a straw poll of 120 voters conducted on the first day of early voting by The West Australian, which found 50% voting for One Nation, 27.5% for Labor and 12% for Liberal (and The Australian reported that “more than half” of those it asked there said they had voted One Nation). A similar exercise by The West Australian during last year’s state campaign overstated Liberal support over multiple seats by not less than 10 points and in some cases by more than 20.

How-to-vote cards are available on the Electoral Commission site. Ten out of 16 candidates offer preference recommendations: Libertarians, Australian Christians and independent Paul Howard all have One Nation second and Liberal higher than Labor; the Liberals have One Nation third behind Australian Christians; and only the Greens, Animal Justice and independent Peter D. Dunne are favourable to Labor.

YouGov: Labor 29, One Nation 26, Coalition 21 (open thread)

YouGov’s fortnightly poll widens the gap between One Nation and the Coalition, against the recent trend.

The fortnightly YouGov News24 Pulse poll has Labor up a point to 29%, One Nation up two to 26%, the Coalition down one to 21%, the Greens steady on 12%. Respondent-allocated two-party measures have Labor’s lead over One Nation unchanged at 56-44, and out from 52-48 to 53-47 against the Coalition. Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 35% and up two on disapproval to 59%, while Angus Taylor is down two to 33% and up three to 49%. Albanese holds preferred prime minister leads of 44-37 over Angus Taylor, out from 42-38, and 52-37 over Pauline Hanson, out from 51-38.

The poll was conducted last Tuesday to this Monday from a sample of 1510; extensive breakdowns on voting intention are available in the accompanying report. We are also about due for the monthly Essential Research poll – if so, that’s likely to be live by the time you read this, either through The Guardian or the pollster’s website. (UPDATE: Apparently not.)

Federal polls: DemosAU and Roy Morgan (open thread)

One poll has the Coalition gaining at One Nation’s expense, another has the opposite.

The monthly DemosAU poll for Capital Brief is notable for recording a five-point drop for One Nation to 24%, with the Coalition up four to 25%, Labor steady on 26% and the Greens down two to 12%. A three-way preferred prime minister question has Anthony Albanese steady on 35%, Angus Taylor up one to 23% and Pauline Hanson down four to 22%, while head-to-head results have Albanese leading Taylor 38-36 after a 38-38 tie last time, and Albanese’s lead over Hanson out from 42-37 to 43-32. Albanese is up three on his positive rating to 28%, down two on neutral to 25% and down one on negative to 47%; Taylor is down one to 23%, up one to 50% and steady on 27%; and Hanson is down four to 30%, steady on 23% and up four to 47%. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1532.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll records movement in the opposite directions, with One Nation up two to 27% and the Coalition down two-and-a-half to 21%, while Labor drops one-and-a-half to 27% and the Greens gain two to 14%. Labor holds an unchanged 53-47 lead over One Nation on respondent-allocated two-party preferred, while its leads over the Coalition are unchanged at 52-48 on respondent-allocated preferences and 52.5-47.5, out from 51.5-48.5, on previous election preference flows. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1508.

State polls: Tasmanian EMRS and Queensland Resolve Strategic

A Tasmanian poll offers both federal and state voting intention, while a regular Queensland state poll records a reverse for One Nation.

Two state polls that have been published this week:

• Pulse Tasmania reports on the quarterly EMRS poll, which features federal as well as state results from Tasmania. The former have Labor on 29%, One Nation on 26%, Liberal on 17% and the Greens on 15%, with a conventional two-party measure having Labor leading 57-43. The report provides no federal result for the Greens, who polled 11.1% at the election. The state results have Liberal up a point on last quarter to 26%, Labor down one to 23%, One Nation up two to 21% and the Greens up two to 16%. Jeremy Rockliff’s lead over Josh Willie as preferred premier has substantially narrowed, from 44-25 to 37-30. All three party leaders have weakened on net favourability, with Rockliff down three to minus seven, Willie down ten to minus 14 and Greens leader Rosalie Woodruff down 11 to minus 16. The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 1000.

• The Brisbane Times reports the bi-monthly Resolve Strategic poll for Queensland has the Liberal National Party up four to 34%, Labor up one to 25%, One Nation down four to 20% and the Greens 10%. David Crisafulli’s lead over Steven Miles narrows from 44-20 to 41-22. The poll combines the Queensland responses from the pollster’s last two national surveys, conducted from July 6 to 11 and August 9 to 16, with a sample of 868.

Friday miscellany: Morgan poll, preselections, NT by-election (open thread)

Labor up and the Greens down in the weekly Morgan poll, Tasmanian Liberal Senators chosen, internal warfare in the SA Liberal Party, and a by-election on the way in the Northern Territory.

Roy Morgan’s weekly federal poll maintained its volatile form in having Labor up three to 28.5%, after being down two the week before; One Nation down one to 25%; the Coalition up one-and-a-half to 23.5%, reversing its change in the last poll; and the Greens down three after a series of strong results to 12.5%. With the Greens’ loss cancelling out Labor’s gain, Labor’s two-party leads over the Coalition actually narrow slightly, from 52-48 to 51.5-48.5 on previous election preferences and 53-47 to 52-48 on respondent-allocated preferences. Labor’s respondent-allocated two-party lead over One Nation was unchanged at 53-47. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1576.

Also of note:

• Chris Gatenby, former state party president and until recently an adviser to Premier Jeremy Rockliff, was sworn in on Monday as the successor to Tasmanian Liberal Senator Wendy Askew. Gatenby will also lead the party’s Senate ticket at the next election, followed by former state government minister Sarah Courtney, who will presumably be filling Jonno Duniam’s vacancy when he follows through on his recently announced retirement. Third on the ticket is Latrobe councillor Jacki Martin.

• Paul Sakkal of Nine Newspapers reports that Nicolle Flint, who held the Adelaide seat of Boothby for the Liberals from 2016 to 2022 and ran unsuccessfully in 2025, is “mulling a preselection challenge” against Tony Pasin, member for the rural seat of Barker. This occurs against a backdrop of discord within the party’s South Australian branch, and its conservative camp in particular, over the bid for the state presidency by Senator Alex Antic, a close ally of Pasin’s and a rival of Flint’s. Mike Smithson at InDaily reports on ongoing speculation as to who might run against Antic when the matter is determined at the branch’s annual general meeting on September 19, one possibility being Flint herself. The meeting will also determine the order of the Senate ticket for the next election, raising the possibility of incumbents Andrew McLachlan, Kerrynne Liddle and Leah Blyth being shunted in favour of a candidate aligned with Antic.

• A by-election will be held for one of the 25 seats in the Northern Territory parliament on September 12 following the resignation of Yiŋiya Mark Guyula, who has held the eastern Arnhem Land seat of Mulka (formerly Nhulunbuy) as an independent since 2016.

DemosAU: Labor 23, Coalition 32, One Nation 22 in Victoria

A new poll suggests a less unpopular leader has done little to lift Victorian Labor three months out from the election.

DemosAU/Premier National have a poll of Victorian state voting intention that paints a picture fundamentally unchanged from before the Labor leadership change, with Labor up two points from June to 23%, the Coalition also up two to 32%, One Nation down one to 22% and the Greens down two to 13%. The Coalition holds an unchanged two-party lead over Labor of 55-45. Jess Wilson records a 43-34 lead over Ben Carroll on preferred premier, compared with Wilson’s 47-28 lead over Jacinta Allan. Wilson’s personal ratings are 35% positive (up three), 41% neutral (down five) and 24% negative (up two), while Carroll is on 21% positive, 42% neutral and 37% negative, compared with Allan’s 18%, 25% and 57%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Tuesday from a sample of 1007.

As noted in the post below, a Victorian state poll from Resolve Strategic in the Nine Newspapers is likely over the coming days.

UPDATE: The Age reports the monthly Resolve Strategic poll has Labor down two to 25%, the Coalition steady on 27%, One Nation up one to 23% and the Greens steady on 12%. A three-way preferred premier question has Jess Wilson on 26%, Ben Carroll on 20% and One Nation state president, Pakenham and prospective leader Warren Pickering on 10%, with 44% undecided. The poll was conducted Sunday to Saturday from a sample of 1000.

Resolve Strategic: Labor 28, One Nation 26, Coalition 23 (open thread)

No change whatsoever in voting intention in the monthly Resolve Strategic poll, which features further questions on budget measures and immigration.

Nine Newspapers reports the latest monthly Resolve Strategic poll records no change on voting intention since last month, with Labor on 28%, One Nation on 26%, the Coalition on 23% and the Greens on 12%. Anthony Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is down two to 37%, with poor and very poor steady on 53%. Angus Taylor is down a point on both to 40% and 33%, while Pauline Hanson is at 46% (up one on last month) and 41% (last month’s result was not reported). A three-way preferred prime minister question has Albanese down a point to 32%, Angus Taylor down two to 19% and Pauline Hanson up one to 26%. Further detail can be found on a redesigned Resolve Monitor display on the Nine Newspapers sites.

A series of questions the series has posed since the May budget offer the government some encouragement. Over four monthly iterations, support for winding back negative gearing has gone from 35% to 33% to 37% to 35%, with opposition going from 21% to 26% to 23% to 20%; while support for changes to the capital gains tax discount has gone from 36% to 31% to 35% to 35%, with opposition going from 21% to 31% to 24% to 21%. The poll also finds 60% support for the objective of bringing house prices down, down one on last month, with only 10% opposed, up one. Labor does less well out of a question on its handling of immigration: 26% says it has handled it in “a carefully planned and managed way”, with 54% rating it “unplanned and unmanaged”. Fifty-six per cent said they would support stricter visa controls, with only 14% opposed.

The poll was conducted Sunday to Saturday from a sample of 2256, a temporary increase on the usual 1600 or so. This allows the surveys to double as monthly polls of state voting intention in Victoria ahead of its election in late November, which will presumably follow over the coming days. On that note, a Victorian poll from DemosAU/Premier National was published today, which I will have a post on overnight.

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