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Friday
No counting today in Bradfield — apparently everything outstanding will be knocked off on Monday, followed by a distribution of preferences. Arriving today were 106 declaration pre-polls, which were the last of those unaccounted for, and the last postals before the deadline, of which there were 48. This is in addition to those that were already awaiting processing, of which there were 66 absents, 154 declaration pre-polls and 83 postals. That’s 430 overall, of which about 10% will be deemed invalid or informal if consistent with the overall trend, but I’m persuaded it might be a bit higher with the final batch. If not, my estimate yesterday of 380 will hold, as will my assessment that Nicolette Boele will need about 56% to win or 43% to quality for an automatic recount, the latter of which at least seems extremely likely.
In Goldstein, Zoe Daniel continues, with astonishing regularity, to whittle away at Tim Wilson’s lead at a rate not quite high enough to overturn what looked like a comfortable lead this time last week. Today it was a 104-102 break in declaration pre-polls that reduced her deficit to 254. However, there are only 332 remaining to be processed with no more to follow, of which Daniel would need nearly three-quarters to get to an automatic recount even if none of them were disallowed or informal.
Thursday
Bradfield. Gisele Kapterian’s lead was cut from 80 to 43 due to postals breaking 112-85 and out-of-division pre-polls breaking 149-138 to Nicolette Boele, while absents went 46-45 to Kapterian. Awaiting processing are 154 out-of-division pre-polls, 83 postals and 66 absents. A further 105 out-of-division pre-polls are yet to arrive, but will be admitted to the count when they do, as will whatever postal votes arrive tomorrow, of which there were 33 today. With about 90% of likely to become formal votes, that leaves about 380, of which Boele will need about 56%, or 43% to stay below the automatic recount threshold of 100 votes. I believe the last recount was held for Herbert in 2016, and it moved Labor’s winning margin from eight votes to 35. The only recount ever to change the result was in McEwen in 2007, when a six-vote Labor margin became a 12-vote Liberal margin. Labor succeeded in getting the Court of Disputed Returns to review the formality decisions, but its determinations in fact increased the Liberal margin to 31.
Goldstein. Tim Wilson’s margin was cut today from 401 to 292, as out-of-division pre-polls, absents and provisionals respectively broke 248-238, 158-92 and 98-65 to Zoe Daniel. However, Daniel’s vague hopes of getting below the automatic recount threshold have likely been dashed: I’m estimating another 380 out-of-division pre-polls, 225 postals, and 175 absents, of which Daniel would need 62%, increasing to 68% for her to actually chase down the margin.
Wednesday
Bradfield. A less fortuitous day today for Nicolette Boele, with absents breaking 105-79 against her, postals defying the strong earlier trend in breaking only 145-143 her way, and out-of-division pre-polls going a lot less well for her than yesterday’s in favouring her only by 284-281. That increases Gisele Kapterian’s lead from 59 to 80 and blows most of the chances Boele had to chase it down. My assessment of what’s yet to come: about 400 out-of-division pre-polls, 150 absents and 350 postals (262 of the latter are awaiting processing, which will be supplemented by new arrivals tomorrow and the next day, of which there were 144 today and 248 the day before). Boele will need around 54.5% of them to take the lead and 49% to make it to an automatic recount.
Longman. LNP member Terry Young has finally shaken off the challenge here, thanks to a large batch of out-of-division pre-polls breaking 1299-1111 his way, together with a 248-241 advantage on postals and a 510-488 disadvantage on absents. This boosts his margin from 162 to 335 with maybe 700 votes to go.
Goldstein. By popular demand, I’ll note that Tim Wilson’s lead is now down to 401, having started the week at 1472. Zoe Daniel won today’s batches by 296-189 on absents, 554-422 on out-of-division pre-polls and 251-231 on postals. Likely still to come: 750 declaration pre-polls, 500 absents, 150 postals and 100 provisionals, of which Daniel would need at least 64%, compared with the 62.9%, 55.2% and 55.7% she’s received across the three days this week.
Flinders. Of note because the AEC are doing a fresh count between Liberal member Zoe McKenzie and independent Ben Smith that’s now mostly done, on which McKenzie leads 53.3-46.7, which I’m projecting to come in at 52.6-47.4.
Tuesday
The AEC has pulled a number of its three-candidates, indicating it it satisfied it has the right candidates in its two-candidate counts. This is of consequence in Ryan, as it means the Greens rather than Labor will defeat the LNP at the final count; Grey, as it rules out independent Anita Kuss finishing ahead of Labor and being a shot at defeating the Liberal; and Monash, where the same applies for Deb Leonard. Elsewhere:
Bradfield. The big development of today’s counting was the return of Bradfield to everyone’s “in doubt” column after a small but potent batch of out-of-division pre-polls broke 298-179 in favour of Nicolette Boele, slashing her deficit from 178 to 59. For my part, I have also determined (here as elsewhere) that I over-corrected yesterday in reducing the number of outstanding votes, which as much as the size of the Liberal lead was a factor in my system calling it for Liberal from last night until the new numbers were reported this afternoon. My assessment is now that that there are likely to be:
• About 1000 out-of-division pre-polls. Since Boele has received 51.8% of these overall, she will gain about 35 votes if those outstanding prove typical. Of the four batches that have reported, she has successively received 49.6%, 46.0%, 50.4% and now 63.5%.
• Perhaps as many as 700 postals. There are 421 listed as awaiting processing, and the acceptance rate so far has been 97.7%. This includes 86 that were received yesterday and 248 today – for purposes of my calculations I’m conservatively estimating another 100 a day up to the deadline on Friday. Here the trend to Boele has been clear, her share of successive batches being 41.0%, 43.1%, 43.4%, 48.6%, 49.5% and 54.7%. If that last batch is repeated, Boele will gain about 60 to 70. Should they suddenly revert to the mean, Kapterian will gain about 100.
• About 350 absent votes. Of the three batches that have reported so far, Boele has progressively received 47.2%, 49.6% and 53.9%. If the remainder break like the last batch, Boele will gain about 25 votes. If they break as absents have done in total, they will make next to no difference.
Which collectively suggests a trend to Boele that my projected 27.6% win probability for her isn’t factoring in.
Longman. After an interruption yesterday, Labor’s very slow and steady progress in chipping away at the LNP lead resumed with favourable breaks in out-of-division pre-polls (296-262) and absents (415-414) and a net gain of 59 on rechecking. This brings the LNP lead in from 256 to 162. My estimate of what’s to come is about 2400 out-of-division pre-polls, 1250 absents, 700 postals and 100 or so provisionals. If these behave as such votes have so far, Labor will make up about 100 votes. Absents and postals have been trending in their favour, but not overwhelmingly so.
Goldstein. Zoe Daniel’s late charge continues, today’s out-of-division pre-polls (1084-886) and absents (547-409) reducing Tim Wilson’s margin from 963 to 660, after yesterday’s counting reduced it from 1472. However, even allowing for my increase in estimated outstanding votes to about 3400, this leaves her needing a formidable share approaching 60%. This is slightly higher than the 58% I estimated yesterday, and well clear of the 55.2% she got today.
Fisher. Yesterday I wrote that the AEC’s three-candidate count “makes it clear independent Keryn Jones will make the final count”. Evidently I shouldn’t have, because it now has her falling to third with 30,485 votes to second-placed Labor’s 30,672. That count is 1513 behind the primary vote count, and I’m estimating 6000 still to come, so the identity of the final two candidates remains an open question. If it’s Labor, Andrew Wallace of the LNP will win comfortably; if it’s Jones, he will probably win quite a lot less comfortably. My system is presently giving Jones a 7.7% chance.
Bean. Labor now leads by 354, and I only rate that there are about 1600 still to come, leaving independent Jessie Price needing over 60% after every category of vote has been running against her.
Calwell. The Guardian explains this so I don’t have to.
Monday
I’ve finally made the effort to revise how many votes are outstanding, which has until now erred well on the high side, causing my probability estimates to be generous to trailing candidates, and also used the AEC’s three-candidate counts to revise preference flows in seats close enough for it to be worth the effort. I’ve also done some pretty serious rewriting of the code that handles preference flows, which was at once too clever and not clever enough — if it’s doing anything strange, that’s where the explanation will lie.
Bradfield. I’m calling this for Liberal now, but a late surprise is at least mathematically possible. Nicolette Boele’s deficit narrowed today from 227 to 178 after she got the better of absents (173-148), out-of-division pre-polls (143-141), provisionals (78-75) and re-checking (a net gain of 19). There will be maybe 1300 to 1400 more votes admitted to the count, of which Boele will need at least 56% – even on a good day like today she managed only 52%, rechecking aside, which is probably complete now. A bit under 53% would get her as far as an automatic recount.
Kooyong. This is well and truly over now: Monique Ryan won today’s postals 1420-1006 and its out-of-division pre-polls 253-232, and now leads by 1128.
Longman. The momentum to Labor here has slowed and now stalled: today, absents broke 142-139 to the LNP, who also made a net gain of 34 on rechecking, increasing the lead from 219 to 256. There’s a lot still out there though: over 2000 absents, approaching 3000 out-of-division pre-polls, and about 400 postals and provisionals, with absents in particular likely to be favourable to Labor.
Ryan. This is as good as called for the Greens now, which is to say that the three-candidate numbers give Labor essentially no chance of making the final count at their expense, since there’s no question but that the LNP will come second.
Goldstein. Since my system doesn’t call a seat until it rates the probability at 99%, it isn’t entirely writing Zoe Daniel off — some good results on absents and rechecking have brought her deficit to inside 1000, and there’s a lot still to come, including another 2000 absents at least 3000 out-of-division pre-polls, and about 750 postals and provisionals. Of this she needs about 58%, which is remote enough that I’m not going to comment further unless something surprising happens.
Fisher. I haven’t been commenting on this one, but it’s a wild card — the three-candidate count makes it clear independent Keryn Jones will make the final count, and as the AEC’s two-candidate is still between LNP and Labor, it’s only on the basis of preference estimates that my own projection has Jones’s chances at as low as 3.2%. A lot of votes are as yet uncounted, but the real variable of consequence is preference flows, which we won’t know about until the full distribution is conducted.
Bean. This has been trending away from independent Jessie Price, who now trails by 450, and with the revision of outstanding votes my system is a fraction away from calling it.
Grey. My model looks like it was doing its job in rating it unlikely that independent Anita Kuss would reach the final count at Labor’s expense, because she’s fallen into third place on the AEC’s three-candidate count now the Whyalla booths are in. My model currently rates her a 10.0% chance of getting ahead and then making it home over the Liberal at the final count.
Forrest. The ABC is calling this for the Liberal, but I’m not writing off independent Sue Chapman quite yet. She’s third behind Labor in the AEC three-candidate count by 30.1% to 29.1%, which my projection narrows to 30.0% to 29.3%, giving her an 11.1% chance of edging ahead and then doing well enough on preference to win at the final count.
Saturday
Time for a fresh post of daily updates on counting for House of Representatives seats, which will linger through the coming week as late postals arrive.
Grey. I’ve managed to get my system to stop calling a clearly in-doubt seat as a win for Liberal candidate Tom Venning by having it treat Anita Kuss as a generic rather than a teal independent for the purposes of the ad hoc two-candidate preferred count between the two, which is necessarily speculative because there is only hard data for Liberal-versus-Labor. However, my projection still rates it as more likely that Kuss will fail to make the final count ahead of Labor — Kuss now leads Labor on the AEC’s still incomplete three-candidate count, but the booths this is based on are weaker for Labor and stronger for Kuss (by virtue of under-representing Whyalla), and my system is correcting for the difference.
Bradfield. With the clock running down, Nicolette Boele’s deficit went from 209 to 227 today, as absents broke 684-672 and out-of-division pre-polls broke 250-213 in favour of Gisele Kapterian, cancelling out a 31-vote gain for Boele on rechecking. My best guess is that about 1750 votes of various kinds are still to come, of which Boele needs upwards of 56%.
Kooyong. My system is calling this for Monique Ryan now — Amelia Hamer was relying on a borderline-implausible flow of out-of-division pre-polls, but the first batch of them has come in at 1260-1183 in favour of Ryan. A batch of postals broke 511-467 to Hamer, limiting Ryan’s gain since yesterday to 661 to 693. Likely still to come: about 1500 more out-of-division pre-polls, 1000 absent, and few hundred each out of provisionals and late-arriving postals, of which Hamer needs at least 70%.
Bendigo. The Labor-versus-Nationals two-candidate count has caught up with the primary votes now, putting Labor ahead 51.4-48.6, which my projection is generously (for the Nationals) revising down to 50.7-49.3, but there’s no real doubt Labor have made it over the line.
Longman. Yesterday I noted that Labor would sneak home if absents and out-of-division pre-polls continued at their existing rate, so it was good news for Terry Young that a batch of the latter broke 509-458 his way, where the first batch had gone 360-321 against. Conversely, he had his first unfavourable batch of postals to date, going 499-473. He also lost a net 37 on rechecking, leaving him with a lead of 219, in from 231 yesterday.
Bullwinkel. Labor’s lead here is out from 634 to 990, and I’d say that’s your lot.