Friday polling miscellany (open thread)

Plus a report on what the future may have in store for the seat of Capricornia, which could potentially involve Matt Canavan.

Some recent federally related bits-and-pieces relevant to this site’s purview:

• Geoff Chambers of The Australian reports “rising expectations” LNP member Michelle Landry will retire as member for Capricornia “before the next election”, and that Senator Matt Canavan is “expected to come under pressure from colleagues” to contest the seat. The report also says James Ashby, chief-of-staff to Pauline Hanson and unsuccessful candidate for Keppel at the October 2024 Queensland state election, is “seriously considering” contesting the seat for One Nation.

• Nine Newspapers had further results from the weekend’s Resolve Strategic poll relating to net zero, with 26% favouring the maximalist positive option (“do everything it takes to meet it”) and 28% the milder alternative (“keep it as an aspiration goal to aim towards, but not a binding law”), while 12% favoured the maximalist negative option (“abandon the target and take little or no action”) and 19% its milder alternative (“abandon the target, but still take action on emissions where it is affordable”). Twenty-two per cent felt Australia would achieve the target of 43% by 2030 while 49% did not.

• The Australian had further results from last week’s Newspoll providing familiar results on immigration, which 64% considered too high, 10% too low and 26% about right. Twenty-three per cent felt the “impact of immigration to Australia” to be beneficial for most, 20% harmful, and 55% a bit of both.

• A survey for the McKinnon Institute, conducted in July by Roy Morgan from a sample of 4400, has findings on trust in government and democracy, with fairly typical results for such endeavours in this country in registering a healthy but not poisonous level of skepticism about the political process. However, this does not extend to “the way democracy works in Australia”, and still less with the electoral process (albeit that younger cohorts were somewhat more skeptical). On the former count, 54.5% said they were satisfied in greater or lesser degree, 22.6% unsatisfied and 20.0% neither, which compares with 34% satisfied and 61 unsatisfied in an American survey by Gallup in January, and 40.7% satisfied and 49.% dissatisfied in last year’s British Election Study.

• The regular SEC Newgate Mood of the Nation report finds the federal government’s performance rated good by 35% and poor by 37%. All state governments are handily rated net positive with the distinct exception of Victoria. Labor is rated best party to manage the cost of living by 33%, which has been on a steady downward trajectory since a post-election peak of 42%, while the Coalition has kept steady at 22%, the balance going to “neither/someone else”. Views of Donald Trump have softened since July, when 15% were positive and 70% negative, the latest numbers being 23% positive and 59% negative. The survey was conducted October 29 to November 3 from a sample of 1208.

UPDATE: Further results from the Resolve Strategic poll find an upsurge in support for republicanism, now favoured by 43%, up five since September, although opposition is also up three to 28%, with neutral or unsure down eight to 29%. King Charles is nonetheless viewed positively by 36% (up seven), neutrally by 39% (down two) and negatively by 20% (down one), the problem evidently being is brother, who scores 13% positive, 20% neutral and 59% negative.

Resolve Strategic: Labor 37, Coalition 28, Greens 10 in New South Wales

Despite stable numbers on voting intention, a New South Wales state poll finds a significant narrowing in Chris Minns’ lead as preferred premier.

The Sydney Morning Herald yesterday reported that the bi-monthly New South Wales state poll from Resolve Strategic has Labor down one to 37%, the Coalition steady on 28%, the Greens steady on 10%, generic independents up four to 15% and others down one to 11%. I would roughly estimate Labor’s two-party preferred lead at 58-42, compared with a 2023 election result of 54.3-45.7, though the size of the independent and others result makes this highly imprecise. Chris Minns lead over Mark Speakman narrows substantially from 37-16 to 31-19. The poll was conducted from the New South Wales components of the last two monthly national surveys, from a collective sample of 1000.

Resolve Strategic: 53-47 to Labor (open thread)

A new poll produces what the Coalition might regard as a pleasantly surprising set of numbers, while still crediting Labor with an election-winning lead.

The monthly Resolve Strategic poll from Nine Newspapers is a little better for the Coalition than they have lately been accustomed to, recording a narrowing of Labor’s two-party lead from 55-45 to 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences, though previous election preference flows would likely have produced a result of 54-46. Labor is down a point on the primary vote to 33% and the Coalition up one to 29%, with the Greens up a point to 12% and One Nation steady on 12%. Anthony Albanese is nonetheless up three on approval (combined response of very good and good on “performance in recent weeks”) to 44% and down three on disapproval (combined poor and very poor) to 44%, while Sussan Ley is steady at 33% and up three to 41%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 40-23 to 39-25.

Semi-regular questions on the cost-of-living find an ongoing worsening trend on the question of whether respondents would struggle to afford an unexpected major expense, 61% agreeing (up from 50% last November) and 24% disagreeing (down from 36%). Forty-two per cent held the federal government most responsible for rising living costs, up from 36% in October last year, with 16% blaming global factors, 11% state governments, 7% business and 7% the Reserve Bank. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1804.

DemosAU: 51-49 to Coalition in Victoria

The Coalition keeps its nose in front in a new Victorian state poll, as Brad Battin widens his lead over Jacinta Allan.

DemosAU has a Victorian state poll that has the Coalition leading 51-49, unchanged on the last such poll in early September. Labor is steady on 26% of the primary vote, with the Coalition down one to 37% and the Greens steady on 15%. Brad Battin leads Jacinta Allan 40-32 on preferred premier, out from 37-32. Also featured is an upper house voting intention question which has Labor on 21%, the Coalition on 30%, the Greens on 14% and One Nation on 11%. The poll was conducted October 21 to 27 from a sample of 1016; demographic breakdowns are featured in the accompanying report.

Some recent Labor preselection news, details of which are drawn from the Herald Sun’s Backroom Baz column and Benita Kolovos of The Guardian:

• Natalie Hutchins, Government Services Minister and member for Sydenham, announced last fortnight she would not contest the next election. Backroom Baz reports the leading preselection candidate is Uros Rasic, political officer with the Australian Workers Union and former staffer to Hutchins.

• Benita Kolovos reports three candidates for Labor preselection in Bayswater, to be vacated with the retirement of Jackson Taylor: Pamela Anderson, chief executive of Emily’s List Australia; Julie Buxton, policy adviser at Emergency Recovery Victoria; and Sorina Grasso, a former Knox councillor.

• Backroom Baz relates that Rachel Halse, Australian Nursing and Midwifery Federation organiser and wife of former member Dustin Halse, is the “clear frontrunner” for Labor preselection in Ringwood, whose member Will Fowles has parted company with the party after a troubled term. Benita Kolovos of The Guardian identifies two further candidates in Nildhara Gadani and Mannie Verma.

• Also from Backroom Baz: Cardinia Shire mayor Jack Kowarzik is “odds-on favourite” to succeed Emma Vulin as Labor’s candidate in Pakenham, and Broden Borg, assistant principal at Caulfield Junior College and former Melton councillor, “looks set” to succeed Steve McGhie in Melton.

US state and local elections live

Live commentary on today’s US Virginia and New Jersey state elections, New York City mayoral election and a referendum in California to enable retaliatory gerrymandering.

Live Commentary

1:52pm Friday I’ve done an article for The Conversation about these elections, Trump’s sliding ratings and the US government shutdown.

9:20am Thursday In the NJ lower house, the NYT has 53 Dems and 19 Reps with eight uncalled. Dems are leading in four of the uncalled seats. If current leads hold up, they will win by 57-23, a five-seat gain.

5:28pm In the Texas 18th federal seat “jungle primary” (this is a special election), the two leading candidates, both Democrats, will advance to a yet to be scheduled runoff. A candidate needs over 50% to win a jungle primary outright, and the top candidate currently has 30.2%. The top Rep got 6.7%.

4:53pm End of day summary In Virginia, Dems won the governorship by 15.2 points, lieutenant governor by 11.4 and attorney general by 6.6 despite a scandal regarding the Dem A-G candidate. Dems won the lower house by 64-36, a 13-seat gain. Virginia voted for Harris in 2024 by 5.8 points.

In NJ, Dems won the governor by 13 points, far exceeding polls that gave them a low single-digit lead. NJ voted for Harris by 5.9 points in 2024. Dems have a 49-19 lead in called NJ lower house races, with 12 uncalled. Dems previously had a 52-28 majority in the NJ lower house.

With 91% in for NYC, Mamdani won the mayoralty by 50.4-41.6 over Cuomo with just 7.1% for Sliwa. In California, with 66% in, Yes to retaliatory gerrymandering leads by 29.4 points. We won’t have final results from NYC or California for some time as they take weeks to count all their votes.

3:23pm Now 50% in from California, and Yes leads by 66-34.

3:09pm Only 2% counted so far in California, but it’s already been called for Yes to retaliatory gerrymandering. Yes leads by 74-26 so far.

3:02pm VPAP now showing only one undecided seat in Virginia, with Dems winning by 64-35, a gain of 13 seats for the Dems. In the NJ lower house, the NYT has Dems winning by 44-14 with 22 still undecided. Dems have retained their hold on the trifecta in NJ and gained a trifecta in Virginia by gaining the governorship. The trifecta means control over both chambers of the legislature and the governor.

2:45pm Dems will win the other NYC races easily, beating the Reps with over 70%. In Pennsylvania, Dems have retained three judges on the state supreme court to keep their 5-2 majority. In Maine, a referendum to require photo ID for voting has been rejected by 23 points with 57% in.

2:37pm It’s now 59-26 in the Virginia lower house to the Dems with 15 undecided, a gain of ten seats for the Dems. Reps lead most of the undecided seats.

2:21pm In the VPAP count of the Virginia lower house, Dems lead Reps by 55-25 with 20 undecided, a gain of eight seats for Dems.

1:51pm According to the Virginia Public Access Project, Dems are winning the Virginia lower house by 40-17 with 43 uncalled. Dems have gained seven seats from the Reps so far.

1:40pm Mamdani CALLED winner of NYC mayor. With 75% in, he leads Cuomo by 50.4-41.3 with just 7.5% for Sliwa.

1:52pm The Dem has been called the winner in NJ governor, currently leading by 15 points with 63% in.

1:27pm With 52% in for NYC, Mamdani’s lead over Cuomo has narrowed to 49.6-41.5. But hardly any further narrowing with 60% in now.

1:15pm The Dem’s lead has narrowed to 15 points in NJ with 52% in, with the NYT expecting her to get a final 56% of the vote.

1:12pm With 38% in for NYC, Mamdani leads Cuomo by 51.2-40.0 with just 8.0% for Sliwa. These would be early votes, so election day votes may favour Cuomo.

12:36pm With 62% counted in Virginia, the Dems lead for governor by 11 points, lieutenant governor by 7 and attorney general by 2. So the scandal about Jones’ texts had an impact, but not enough for him to lose the att-gen race.

12:31pm With 27% in for NJ, the Dem leads by 23 points. If that holds up, the polls in NJ will have badly understated the Dem. But perhaps early votes are mostly counted, and election day votes will help the Rep.

12:29pm With 52% in for the Texas federal special election, the three leading candidates are all Dems, but the leader has 32%, well under the 50% needed to avoid a runoff.

12:15pm With 17% in for NJ, the Dem is up by more than 26 points. The NYT says the remaining vote is “fairly evenly split”, implying an easy Dem win.

12:10pm With 14% in for New Jersey, the Dem leads the governor’s race by 17 points. No NYT estimate of the final result yet.

12:01pm The Dem has been called the winner in Virginia governor.

11:55am With 29% in for Virginia, NYT gives Dem gov candidate 57% when counting complete. Dems still likely to win all three statewide offices.

11:37am With 17% now counted in Virginia governor, the NYT model thinks the Dem will win with 56% of the final vote. The other statewide races are closer, but Dems should win all three.

11:28am For the governor’s race, the Dem is winning all types of votes counted so far, early votes by 21 points, election day votes by 5.5 points and mail votes by 49 points.

11:21am With 2% reporting in Virginia, the Dems lead the governor race by 13 points. They are also 14 points up in the Attorney-General race and 10 points up for lieutenant-governor.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

US state elections occur today in Virginia and New Jersey, with the governor and lower house of the legislature up. New York City (NYC) will hold a mayoral election. California holds a referendum on enabling Democratic retaliatory gerrymandering. And there’s a federal special election in a safe Democratic Texas seat. Polls close at 11am AEDT in Virginia, 12 noon in NJ and Texas, 1pm in NYC and 3pm in California.

Late polls in NJ have the Democrat leading by low single-digit margins. Democrats have held the NJ governorship since 2017. In Virginia, where Republicans won the governorship in 2021, the Democrat leads by high single to low double-digit margins. At the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris won NJ by 5.9 points and Virginia by 5.8 points, while Donald Trump won the overall popular vote by 1.5 points.

Virginia also holds statewide contests for lieutenant-governor and attorney-general. A scandal about the Democratic AG candidate’s texts could cost him. Democrats currently hold a 52-28 majority over Republicans in the NJ lower house and a 51-49 majority in the Virginia lower house. Democrats hold a 25-15 upper house majority in NJ and a 21-19 majority in Virginia, which are not up for election.

In NYC, a late AtlasIntel poll gave Democratic nominee and socialist Zohran Mamdani a 44-39 lead over independent Andrew Cuomo with 15% for Republican Curtis Silwa. Cuomo led Mamdani by 50-44 head to head. Other than in the two final AtlasIntel polls, Mamdani has led Cuomo by double digit margins and also led him head to head. In California, “yes” to retaliatory gerrymandering is over 20 points ahead.

The special election in Texas’ 18th is being held eight months after the former Democratic member died, but it’s unlikely to be decided today. It’s a “jungle primary”, where all Democratic and Republican candidates compete and the top two go to a runoff. Unless one candidate gets over 50%, a runoff will need to be scheduled to decide this seat.

Republicans hold the House of Representatives by 219-213 with three vacancies. A Democrat who won a special in Arizona in September has not yet been seated. A special will occur on December 2 in a safe Republican seat in Tennessee.

With the ongoing US government shutdown set to beat the record for the longest shutdown, Donald Trump’s net approval in Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls has slid 5.3 points since October 19 to -12.8. In Fiftyplusone’s generic ballot average, Democrats’ lead over Republicans has changed little, and is now 44.9-41.8.

Netherlands, Bolivia and Chile past and upcoming elections

The 150 Dutch MPs are elected by national proportional representation without a threshold. At the October 29 election, the socially liberal and progressive D66 won 26 seats (up 17 since the 2023 election), the far-right PVV 26 (down 11), the conservative VVD 22 (down two), the Green Left 20 (down five), the conservative CDA 18 (up 13), the far-right JA21 nine (up eight) and the far-right FvD seven (up four).

To reach a majority, 76 seats are needed. It usually takes months after an election to form a government. Other parties have vowed not to work with the PVV, which caused the fall of the last government and this election to be held over two years early. But conservative to far-right parties won a combined 82 seats, so the next government is likely to be a conservative one.

The Bolivian presidential runoff election occurred on October 19. The Movement for Socialism (MAS) had dominated Bolivia since 2005, but at this election they won just 3.2% of the August first round vote, with the runoff contested by two conservative to right-wing candidates, with the more centrist candidate winning by 55.0-45.0. Seats in both houses of the legislature were allocated by PR using the presidential vote. The MAS won just two of 130 seats in the lower house and zero of 36 in the Senate.

Chile presidential and legislative elections will occur on November 16, with a presidential runoff on December 14. Incumbent left-winger Gabriel Boric cannot run owing to term limits. Jeannette Jara is Boric’s candidate and leads right-winger José Kast in first round polls, but other candidates are mostly right-wing, so Kast may win the runoff.

Newspoll: 57-43 to Labor (open thread)

A collapse in Sussan Ley’s approval drives the Coalition’s worst primary vote in the history of Newspoll, as One Nation continues to surge.

The Australian reports the first Newspoll in four weeks finds no abatement in the Coalition’s loss of support to One Nation, with the former down four on the primary vote since the last poll to 24% and the latter up four to 15%. This smashes records at both ends: the Coalition’s 27% in the previous poll was already their worst ever, while One Nation’s previous record was 13%. Labor and the Greens are both down a point, to 36% and 11% respectively, with Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 57-43. Sussan Ley’s approval rating has tumbled seven points to 25%, while her disapproval is up nine to 58%. Anthony Albanese is at 46% approval and 51% disapproval, both up one from last time, and leads 54-27 on preferred prime minister, out from 51-31. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1265.

James Campbell of News Corp also reported yesterday on a poll from Freshwater Strategy, which had gone quiet since markedly overstating Coalition support in its polling before the May federal election. It found Labor leading 55-45 from primary votes of Labor 33%, Coalition 31% and One Nation 10%, with no result provided in the report for the Greens. The poll also found 35% holding that the country is headed in the right direction, compared with 52% for wrong direction; that 22% now rate immigration “one of the most important issues they want the federal government to focus on”, compared with 11% in February 2024.

Donation drive

Time for the Poll Bludger’s bi-monthly hustle for a little extra cash, which can be made through the “become a supporter” buttons at the top of the site and at the bottom of each post. Donations are always gratefully received, though perhaps especially so in the fallow period that typically follows a federal election. The next big electoral event is the South Australian state election on March 21, for which I’m currently making good progress on an election guide that I hope to get into a publishable state before the end of November. Also on the horizon is a potentially interesting state by-election for the northern Queensland seat of Hinchinbrook, though the relevant authorities seem to be dragging their heels on setting a date. Whenever it is, Poll Bludger will be on the case with its famous live results and projections feature.

DemosAU: 59-41 to Labor in New South Wales

A New South Wales state poll tells a familiar story of Labor well on top in two-party terms, but with One Nation support at historic heights.

A new poll by DemosAU finds state Labor in New South Wales, which appeared to be struggling in the polls until at least up to the May federal election, recording a blowout two-party lead of 59-41, from primary votes of Labor 37%, Coalition 30% and Greens 13%. Various demographic breakdowns are featured in the full report. Chris Minns holds a 44-25 lead over Mark Speakman as preferred premier. As in the Queensland poll earlier this week, the poll finds cost of living and housing affordability by far the most salient issues. We are also treated to a result on upper house voting intention which has One Nation at a formidable 15%, with Labor on 30%, the Coalition on 21% and the Greens on 13%. The poll was conducted October 16 to 22 from a sample of 1016.

Also on the NSW state politics front:

• The Daily Telegraph’s The Sauce column reports Mark Hodges, the Liberal member for Castle Hill, faces as many as three preselection challengers, among them Peter Gangemi, former Hills Shire mayor. Columnist James O’Doherty cites “faction bosses” saying Hodges “was never going to be around long-term”, having emerged as the sole preselection nominee ahead of the 2023 election after the party’s candidate vetting committee blocked presumed front-runner Noel McCoy.

• Also courtesy of The Sauce, talk of two further challenges against sitting Liberals: Miranda MP Eleni Petinos faces former federal Hughes MP Jenny Ware, a circumstance Petinos reportedly blames on deputy leader Natalie Ward; and an unspecified challenger has emerged to North Shore MP Felicity Wilson, who survived by one vote against a challenge in 2018 from now Willoughby MP Tim James.

• In a report on Local Government Minister Ron Hoenig’s alleged involvement in an Office of Local Government inquiry process to aid the council preselection of former Bayside mayor Bill Saravinovski, Max Maddison of the Sydney Morning Herald relates expectations Steve Kamper will retire from his seat of Rockdale at the next election and be succeeded by his chief-of-staff, current Bayside mayor Ed McDougall.

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