Resolve Strategic: Labor 28, Coalition 30, Greens 12, One Nation 11 in Victoria

The second Victorian state poll in successive weeks paints a rather different picture from the last on voting intention, while confirming the unpopularity of Jacinta Allan.

The Age today brings the regular bi-monthly Victorian state poll from Resolve Strategic, combining 1000 responses from the last two monthly national polls. The result is markedly different from last week’s DemosAU poll in having One Nation, who had not previously been broken out from “others”, at a modest 11%, but similar in having the Coalition down nine points from November-December to 30%. DemosAU had One Nation more in line with the recent trend of federal polling at 21%, with the Coalition down eight on its October poll to 29%. Labor is holding steady at 28%, compared with a three-point drop from DemosAU to 23%, while the Greens are steady on 12%. No two-party preferred is provided, but I make it around 51-49 in favour of Labor. Liberal leader Jess Wilson nonetheless records a net personal rating of plus 14, up three from last time, and leads Jacinta Allan 39-20 as preferred premier, out from 41-24. Allan’s already poor rating is down five to minus 37.

Resolve Strategic: Labor 32, Coalition 23, One Nation 23, Greens 11 (open thread)

The first poll to tackle the Angus Taylor leadership suggests a small Coalition gain from One Nation, but still finds them them well down on a month ago.

Nine Newspapers reports a new Resolve Strategic poll which dealt with last week’s complications by asking respondents separate questions about voting intention in Sussan Ley and Angus Taylor leadership scenarios through to Thursday, at which point it stopped asking about Ley. The Taylor scenario results have been published as the headline, showing Labor on 32%, up two on last month’s poll and a point higher than in the Sussan Ley scenario; the Coalition on 23%, down five on last month but up three on the Ley scenario; One Nation on 23%, up five last month but down two on the Ley scenario; and the Greens on 11%, up one on last month but down one on the Ley scenario. No two-party preferred is provided, but I make this out to be 54-46 to Labor over the Coalition based on 2025 election preference flows. UPDATE: An accompanying report says the poll has Labor leading 55-45 on respondent-allocated preferences.

Anthony Albanese records a combined very good and good rating of 35%, unchanged on last time, and a combined poor and very poor of 55%, down one. A final result is provided for Sussan Ley showing her on 27% positive, down eight, and 50% negative, up eight, with Albanese leading 38-22 on preferred prime minister, out from 33-29. A question on preferred Liberal leader had Ley on 19%, Andrew Hastie on 13%, Angus Taylor on 10%, Tim Wilson on 4% and Ted O’Brien on 3%, with 52% uncommitted. We are further told of various leaders’ “net likeability” ratings: minus 12 for Albanese, minus 11 for Ley, plus four for Hastie, plus seven for Pauline Hanson, minus eight for David Littleproud and minus eight for Chris Bowen, though I consider such numbers of limited value in the absence of name recognition and uncommitted ratings. The overall survey period for the poll was Sunday to Saturday, with a sample of 1800.

DemosAU: 53-47 to Coalition in Victoria

The One Nation earthquake registers yet again, this time in a Victorian state poll, as Labor support plumbs new depths.

The Herald Sun has a DemosAU/Premier National state voting intention poll for Victoria, providing a new outlet for the all-encompassing One Nation upheaval. After neglecting to include the party as a response option in its October poll, the latest result has it at 21%, within striking distance of Labor on 23% (down three from October), with the Coalition down eight to 29%. The Greens are steady on 15%, while an “others” category that now has One Nation broken out from it is down ten to 12%. The pollster provides a two-party preferred result that puts the Coalition ahead 53-47, out from 51-49, according to a formula that gives them 75% of One Nation, 10% of Greens and 55% of other preferences.

Jacinta Allan was rated positively by 16%, neutrally by 31% and negatively by 53%, while Jess Wilson respectively scores 27%, 49% and 24%. Wilson leads 40-31 on preferred premier, little different from Brad Battin’s 40-32 lead in the October poll. A question on upper house voting intention, for which 12% were uncommitted, has One Nation shading Labor by 20% to 19%, with the Coalition on 28%, the Greens on 14%, Legalise Cannabis on 5% and Animal Justice on 4%. The poll distinctively found crime and violence rated the most important issue by 30%, shading the usual front-runner cost of living at 29%, followed by housing affordability on 12%. The poll was conducted February 1 to 10 from a sample of 1274.

Everything everywhere all at once (open thread)

A leadership change in Canberra, by-elections federally and in Victoria and the Northern Territory, polling federally and from Tasmania.

As you will have read elsewhere, Angus Taylor has replaced Sussan Ley as the leader of the Liberal Party. The significance of the occasion was further sharpened, from the perspective of this website, when Ley promptly announced she would be leaving parliament, requiring a by-election for the regional New South Wales seat of Farrer, which she has held since gaining it from the Nationals in 2001. This promises to be a radically complex contest involving both the Liberals and Nationals, with the later rated “likely” to run by a party source quoted in The Australian; One Nation, who have opened nominations for preselection; and perhaps two independents with substantial track records.

It could also lead to further state by-elections, as both the local state members have indicated they might run. Albury MP Justin Clancy said he would “consider carefully” whether to run for a Liberal preselection which, according to The Australian, “looks set to nominate a candidate from the Right”. Helen Dalton, who won the state seat of Murray for Shooters Fishers and Farmers in 2019 and retained it as an independent in 2023, said she had some “serious thinking to do” in deciding whether to run. Michelle Milthorpe, who ran as an independent in Farrer in 2025 with backing from Climate 200, has announced she will run.

Also on the immediate by-election calendar:

• The Victorian state seat of Nepean faces a by-election at a date yet to be determined following the resignation of former Liberal deputy leader Sam Groth. Lucy Callander of the Mornington Peninsula Leader reports the party has given special dispensation for Mornington mayor Anthony Marsh to run for preselection, despite not having hitherto been a party member. Also in the mix are former Frankston mayor Nathan Conroy, who ran unsuccessfully for the federal seat of Dunkley at the by-election in 2023 and the general election in 2025, and David Burgess, a Sorrento real estate agent and upper house candidate in 2022. Also mentioned have been Marty Barr, a senior executive at Myer and former adviser to Denis Napthine; Briony Camp, who ran under maiden name of Briony Hutton in Hastings at the 2022 election; Jacquie Blackwell, chair of the state party’s women’s council; and Alex Screen, a financial adviser.

• Last week’s resignation by the only Greens member in the Northern Territory parliament, Kat McNamara, has proceeded quickly to a date of March 7 being set for the by-election in her northern Darwin seat of Nightcliff. McNamara unseated former Labor Chief Minister Natasha Fyles by 36 votes at the August 2024 election, after an unusually weak flow of Country Liberal preferences to Labor. The Greens candidate for the by-election is Suki Dorras-Walker, a community legal service paralegal and former teacher who ran for the party in Fannie Bay in 2024. Labor’s candidate is Ed Smelt, a Darwin councillor and civil engineer. A Country Liberal candidate is expected to be named in the coming days.

Two items of polling to relate:

• Roy Morgan, whose weekly surveying is conducted from Monday to Saturday, went to print last night with results from its 1216 responses from Monday to Thursday. This showed a further two-and-a-half point drop for the Coalition vote to 20%, with Labor up two from an unusually soft result last week to 30.5%, with One Nation up half to 25% and the Greens down half to 13%. Respondent preference allocation was markedly favourable to Labor, giving them a blowout two-party lead over the Coalition of 58.5-41.5, out from 53.5-46.5. The change on 2025 election preference flows was more modest, from 53-47 to 55-45.

• A Tasmanian state poll from DemosAU offers a look into a parallel world without One Nation, finding both Liberal and Labor losing ground to all other comers since the July 2025 election. The Liberals are at 35%, down six from the previous poll in November, and five from the July election; Labor are on 23%, down one on November and three on July; the Greens are on 15%, unchanged on the last poll and up half a point on the election; Shooters Fishers and Farmers are on 4%, up two on November and one on July; independents are only 17%, up three on November and two on July; and others is on 6%, up two on the previous poll. The poll was conducted January 27 to February 12 from a sample of 1071.

Liberal leadership spill: 9am (open thread)

Either a change of leadership or a major surprise is in store when the Liberal party room meets this morning.

The Liberal Party room will meet at 9am this morning to vote on the leadership, with the general expectation being that Sussan Ley will be deposed by Angus Taylor. This follows the resignation of Taylor and eight other shadow ministers, among them James McGrath, who supported Ley in the post-election vote in which Ley defeated Taylor by 29 votes to 25. Party sources cited by the News Corp papers expect Taylor to carry the day with “a clear majority of up to ten votes in the 51 person Liberal party room”. Nine Newspapers reports the possibility that moderates may advance Tim Wilson as an alternative if the spill motion is carried by a margin big enough to discourage Ley from standing.

The prospect of Ley resigning from parliament, and an ensuing by-election in her seat of Farrer, has been widely canvassed: James Massola of Nine Newspapers notes she has served in parliament for 25 years and is among the few parliamentarians privy to the defined benefits scheme pension available that the Howard government closed off in 2004. I discussed the situation with Thomas Oriti of ABC Radio in Sydney yesterday afternoon, which you can hear from 2:07:45.

UK by-election, US special elections and Japanese election

A UK by-election looms in a safe Labour seat, three federal US special elections to be held by August, and the conservative LDP wins by a landslide in Japan.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

The parliamentary by-election for the UK Labour-held seat of Gorton and Denton will occur on February 26. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 50.8%, followed by the far-right Reform with 14.1%, the Greens with 13.2%, the Workers Party with 10.3% and the Conservatives with 7.9%.

Andy Burnham, Labour mayor of Greater Manchester, was blocked from standing by Labour’s National Executive Committee. The public reason was concerns about a by-election for Greater Manchester mayor, but Burnham was seen as a potential challenger to Keir Stamer’s Labour leadership. He needed a seat in the House of Commons to be Labour leader.

The Election Maps UK national poll aggregate gives Reform 29.8%, Labour 20.3%, the Conservatives 18.8%, the Greens 13.4% and the Liberal Democrats 12.4%. After dipping to third in December, Labour has edged back ahead of the Conservatives. On these vote shares, Reform would win a clear majority with 345 of the 650 Commons seats.

Upcoming US federal special elections

On January 31, Democrat Christian Menefee defeated a fellow Democrat to win the runoff for the Texas 18th federal House seat. The runoff occurred as no candidate won over 50% in the November 4 “jungle primary”.  This seat was vacant for almost 11 months. Republicans now lead Democrats by 218-214 in the House of Representatives.

There are three upcoming federal specials. Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene resigned her Georgia House seat on January 5, and a jungle primary special will occur March 10. It’s unlikely anyone will get over 50%, so a runoff will need to be scheduled. Democrat Mikie Sherrill was elected New Jersey governor in November, and a special for her House seat will occur April 16. A California Republican died on January 6, with the special to occur August 4.

In gerrymandering news, the Supreme Court in December reversed a lower court ruling that had annulled the Texas Republican gerrymander. This means Republicans can gain an additional five seats from Texas by gerrymandering. However, the Court on February 4 upheld California’s retaliatory Democratic gerrymander that will give Democrats five additional seats.

Virginia Democrats have proposed a 10-1 Democratic gerrymander of Virginia’s 11 House seats, gaining four seats. This will need a referendum to approve, with a poll having “yes” to gerrymandering leading by 51-43. A court has blocked this gerrymander, but Democrats are appealing.

Midterm elections of all the House and one-third of the Senate will occur this November. In Nate Silver’s generic ballot aggregate, Democrats lead Republicans by 47.9-42.3, a 5.6-point margin. Democrats’ position has improved since last November. Donald Trump’s net approval in Silver’s aggregate is -14.4, near his worst this term of -15.0.

Conservative LDP landslide at Japanese election

The Japanese lower house election occurred Sunday, just 15 months after the last election in late 2024. In 2024, the conservative Liberal Democratic Party and its Komeito allies lost their combined majority. After Sanae Takaichi was elected LDP leader and PM in October, Komeito split from the LDP, forcing the LDP to ally with another right-wing party (Ishin). At this election, Komeito allied with the centre-left Constitutional Democratic Party to form the Centrist Reform Alliance (CRA).

Of the 465 seats, 289 were elected by first past the post and 176 by 11 multi-member electorates using proportional representation. The LDP won 316 seats (up 125 since 2024), with the CRA winning just 49 (down 123) and Ishin 36 (up two). The LDP’s 316 seats is the most ever for a party in Japan. In the FPTP seats, the LDP defeated the CRA by 249-7 on vote shares of 49.2-21.6. The LDP has governed almost continuously since its formation in 1955.

Portugal and Chile

At Sunday’s Portuguese presidential runoff election, the centre-left Socialist candidate defeated the far-right Chega candidate by 66.8-33.2. While this was a good result for the left, the presidency is largely symbolic. At May 2025 legislative elections, the Socialists finished third behind the conservative PSD and Chega.

I previously covered the November Chile legislative elections and first round of the presidential election. At the December 14 presidential runoff, right-winger José Antonio Kast defeated Communist Jeannette Jara by 58.2-41.8. Kast replaces left-winger Gabriel Boric as president.

Federal polls: YouGov and Roy Morgan (open thread)

A YouGov poll finds One Nation two points shy of overtaking Labor on the primary vote, and broad indifference as to who should lead the Liberal Party.

Sky News has the second instalment of YouGov’s fortnightly Sky News Pulse federal polling series, and it finds the One Nation juggernaut coming close to eclipsing Labor, with Labor down a point to 30% and One Nation up yet again by three points to 28%. The Coalition is down another point to 19% (to which we are told the Nationals contribute 1%, compared with 3.8% at the May 2025 election), with the Greens steady at 12%. As well as a conventional two-party preferred figure that has Labor leading 54-46, in from 55-45 last fortnight, there is a Labor-versus-One Nation result that has Labor leading 55-45. The accompanying report has breakdowns by age, gender, region, past vote, class and income, though sadly not by state on this occasion.

Sussan Ley’s personal ratings have slumped still further, with approval down four to 22% and disapproval up five to 62%, while Anthony Albanese is down one to 38% and up one to 56%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 47-29 to 47-25. The poll also inquired about best person to lead the Liberal Party, to which 60% responded with don’t know. Andrew Hastie led the field on 15%, with Sussan Ley on 10% and Angus Taylor on 8%. The poll was conducted February 3 to 10 from a sample of 1561.

This week’s Roy Morgan result has Labor’s respondent-allocated two-party lead taking a substantial hit, in from 56-44 to 53.5-46.5, from primary votes of Labor 28.5% (down two), Coalition 22.5% (up two), One Nation 24.5% (down half) and Greens 13.5% (up one). The two-party result based on 2025 election flows has Labor’s lead at 53-47, in from 54.5-45.5. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1584.

Fox & Hedgehog: 61-39 to Labor in South Australia

One Nation now neck-and-neck with the Liberals ahead of next month’s state poll, with Labor remaining unassailable.

A little less than six weeks out from the state election, The Advertiser today carries a South Australian state poll from Fox & Hedgehog that shows One Nation matching the Liberals on the primary vote while leaving Labor’s overwhelming dominance intact. The poll has Labor on 40% of the primary vote, down one on an earlier Fox & Hedgehog poll conducted immediately before Vincent Tarzia’s resignation as Liberal leader in early December, with the Liberals down two to 19%, One Nation up seven to 20% and the Greens steady on 12%. Labor’s two-party preferred lead over the Liberals is unchanged at 61-39.

Peter Malinauskas’s net approval rating is plus 31, down a point on December, while Liberal leader Ashton Hurn debuts at plus seven, compared with minus eight for Tarzia in the last poll (UPDATE: Malinauskas is up one on positive to 52%, down three on neutral to 22% and up two on negative to 21%, while Hurn is respectively at 20%, 37% and 13%). Malinauskas leads 54-22 on preferred premier, little different from the 54-18 lead he recorded over Tarzia. The poll also inquired about Carlos Quaremba, who at the time the poll was commissioned was lined up for the top position on One Nation’s upper house ticket, but has now been bumped to second to make way for Cory Bernardi. Quaremba recorded 6% approval and 9% disapproval, with 57% admitting to never having heard of him.

Personal ratings are also provided for several federal political figures, with Pauline Hanson scoring a remarkably strong 44% approval rating with disapproval at 34%. Anthony Albanese is at 35% approval and 44% disapproval, with Sussan Ley at 17% and 32%, Angus Taylor at 13% and 20%, Andrew Hastie at 15% and 17%, and Alex Antic at 7% and 14%. Entertainingly, the questionnaire included a fictitious name in John Morsett, presumably to serve as a benchmark for the worth of results such as those for Carlos Quaremba, and it duly produced very similar results, finding 5% thinking well of him and 9% poorly. The poll was conducted January 31 to February 8 from a sample of 904.

UPDATE: The full report has been published on the pollster’s website, with its now customary depth of detail. It finds Labor leading One Nation 63-37 on two-party preferred and Liberal leading One Nation 53-47, with a three-party preferred figure having it at Labor 54%, One Nation 25% and Liberal on 21%. Cory Bernardi records personal ratings of 15% positive, 29% neutral and 29% negative.

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