DemosAU: LNP 34, Labor 25, One Nation 24 in Queensland

After a close escape at the Stafford by-election, another poll points to a weakening position for state Labor in Queensland.

We can expect quite a bit in the way of state polling over the coming weeks, with today’s Freshwater Strategy result for Victoria to be joined soon by another result for the state from Resolve Strategic, and DemosAU/Premier National promising a round of state polling as per its quarterly schedule. The first of the latter is a result for Queensland that has One Nation gaining three points to 24%, which comes at the expense of Labor, down three to 25%, rather than the Liberal National Party, steady on 34%. The Greens are likewise steady on 10%. A conventional two-party preferred result has the LNP leading Labor 58-42, out from 56-44 in the last poll and from 53.8-46.2 at the October 2024 election. David Crisafulli holds a 47-30 lead over Steven Miles on preferred premier, out from 43-32. The poll was conducted May 27 to June 3 from a sample of 1033. Voting intention breakdowns and further results on state direction and issue salience are available in the full report.

Further Queensland electoral news:

• The final result of the May 16 Stafford by-election was a 1.4% winning margin for Luke Richmond, who retained the seat against a 3.8% swing. Liberal National Party candidate Fiona Hammond outpolled Richmond 40.3% to 30.8% on first preferences, but in the absence of One Nation the minor party and independent vote was overwhelmingly left-wing, with preferences flowing accordingly.

• The Queensland Redistribution Commission will release its final determination of the redistribution of state electoral boundaries in “mid-2026”. With the Ipswich region seat of Jordan to be divided between the new seats of Springfield and Greenbank, the Courier-Mail’s George Street Beat column reported on a push within the Left to force Charis Mullen, the Right-aligned member for Jordan, to run for the less safe seat of Greenbank so as to make Springfield available to Ipswich councillor Pye Augustine.

• The Sunday Mail reports expectations that LNP members John-Paul Langbroek (Surfers Paradise), Ros Bates (Mudgeeraba) and Fiona Simpson (Maroochydore) will retire at the next election.

Freshwater Strategy: Labor 23, Coalition 27, One Nation 25 in Victoria

A new Victorian state poll finds Labor running third and 62% backing Jacinta Allan being replaced before the November election.

The Herald Sun has a Freshwater Strategy poll of state voting intention in Victoria that has Labor sinking four points from the last such poll in March to 23%, the Coalition down three to 27%, and One Nation up five to 25%. The report does not provide a result for the Greens, but the Coalition is credited with a 53-47 two-party preferred.

Jess Wilson’s lead over Jacinta Allan as preferred premier has blown out from 47-31 to 49-25, an unusually wide lead for an Opposition Leader over an incumbent. Allan’s net approval rating is down from minus 32 to minus 37, while Wilson’s is down from plus 18 to plus 15. Sixty-two per cent favoured dumping Allan before the November election, including 39% among Labor voters. The poll was conducted between Friday and today from a sample of 1034 – there are a few missing threads, so hopefully we will be hearing more from the print edition or directly from the pollster. I believe we will also see a Resolve Strategic bi-monthly state poll result from Nine Newspapers next week.

Other Victorian electoral news:

• A bill to re-establish a campaign finance regime was passed last week, after the relevant parts of the Electoral Act were struck down wholesale by the High Court in April. The bill restores various aspects of the old system, though not the one that prompted the court ruling, namely the exemption of the major parties’ investment funds from a $4950 cap on political donations over a four-year electoral cycle. It increases the cap to $7500, and also increases annual “administrative expenditure” funding (as distinct from the public election funding based on how many votes a party or candidate receives) from a maximum $1.775 million to $2.765 million. The donation cap is doubled for new candidates and parties and set at a transitional $10,000 for the current cycle. The Greens argued the donation cap down from $10,000 in agreeing to a deal with Labor that froze out the Coalition, who wanted it much higher. The Liberals are particularly aggrieved because the High Court ruling has cut them off from a major source of their funding.

• Merri-bek councillor Katerine Theodosis is Labor’s candidate to succeed the retiring Danny Pearson in Essendon. The Australian’s Victoria Ink column reported in late April that Theodosis was assured of the backing of the national executive after winning the support of the Right faction Australian Workers Union, and that the resulting fait accompli was inflaming resentment among local members already aggrieved by the circumstances in which Jo Briskey succeeded Bill Shorten in the federal seat of Maribyrnong. Pearson appeared to associate himself with Daniel White, a former staffer to Bill Shorten and rival aspirant for the AWU’s support.

• Labor’s new candidate for South Barwon is Rebecca Thistleton, a former Australian Financial Review journalist and state government media adviser who ran unsuccessfully in Melbourne in 2022. The seat’s incumbent is Darren Cheeseman, who was required to resign from the Labor party room in April 2024. Elsewhere, the difficult task of defending a 0.4% margin in Pakenham upon the retirement of Emma Vulin falls to Alessandra Soliven, a 23-year-old Philippines-born former electorate officer and Australian Services Union organiser; and a 0.3% margin in neighbouring Bass will be defended by Chris Buckingham, a gender equity training facilitator with Gippsland Women’s Health, following the retirement of Jordan Crugnale.

• Labor’s candidate for Brunswick is Gabriel Steger, an adviser to federal Cooper MP Ged Kearney, whom the Brunswick Voice reports was preselected unopposed. The seat will be vacated with the retirement of two-term Greens member Tim Read, and as with other Greens-held seats, it will be easier for Labor to win if the Liberals revert to putting the Greens last on their how-to-vote cards, a practice they departed from in 2022.

• The Liberal candidate for Ashwood is former Monash councillor Theo Zographos, who was cast aside in favour of the late Katie Allen as the party’s candidate for the federal seat of Chisholm after Allan’s former seat of Higgins was abolished. Other Liberal candidates for Labor-held seats include Paul Byrnes, a public service legal officer and former staffer to Matthew Bach and Mary Wooldridge, in Eltham; Clare Fitzmaurice, policy adviser to federal MP Anne Webster, in Monbulk; Bass Coast mayor Rochelle Halstead in Bass; David Kitchen, finance manager for a food processing company, in Bayswater; Steve Martin, an engineering manager who ran for the federal seat of Indi in 2019, in Benambra; and Max Williams, owner of a boutique communications consultancy, in Rowville.

• There have been recent retirement announcements from Tim Bull of the Nationals after 16 years as member for Gippsland East, and Gary Maas of Labor after eight years in Narre Warren South.

• The Australian’s Victoria Ink column reports Merri-bek councillor and former mayor Oscar Yildiz, who polled 23.5% as an independent in Pascoe Vale in 2018, is “preparing to launch an independent bid for Essendon”.

• One Nation is yet to announce any candidates, but has declared itself intent on contesting every seat.

Newspoll: Labor 30, One Nation 31, Coalition 18 (open thread)

Another pollster finds One Nation surging to a primary vote lead, and Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings continuing to sag.

Newspoll in The Australian becomes the latest pollster to have One Nation leading on the primary vote, recording a four-point surge to 31% with Labor down one to 30%, the Coalition down two to 18% and the Greens down one to 11%. Anthony Albanese records his worst net leadership rating to date, with approval down four to 36% and disapproval up three to 60%, while Angus Taylor is down one on approval to 35% and down three on disapproval to 45%. Albanese’s lead on preferred prime minister is in from 46-38 to 44-38. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1240.

US California jungle primary live

Two Democrats and one Republican seek to win two runoff spots in California’s gubernatorial primary. Also: can Andy Burnham win the UK Makerfield by-election to become an MP?

Live Commentary

1:48pm Tuesday As this thread has dropped to fourth on the main page, I’m going to discontinue coverage. I wrote about California and Makerfield for The Conversation today.

10:23am Monday After trailing the right-wing Pratt by 30.0-20.3 on election night in the race for the second runoff position for LA Mayor, the left-wing Raman now leads Pratt by 27.1-26.7 with 83% in. Given the way late counting is behaving, Raman is virtually certain to make the runoff. Incumbent Bass has secured the first runoff position with 34.7%.

10:51am Sunday With 78% now in for LA mayor, it’s 34.8% Bass, 27.3% Pratt and 26.2% Raman. Raman is likely to pass Pratt and win the second runoff spot.

12:22pm With 68% counted statewide in California, Dem Becerra has overtaken Rep Hilton for first place in the gubernatorial primary, by 26.8% to 26.4% with 21.1% for Dem Steyer and 10.8% for Rep Hilton. Hilton had led by over two points. Steyer still has a chance to make the runoff instead of Hilton.

For Los Angeles Mayor, with 71% in, incumbent Bass has 35.0%, right-wing challenger Pratt 28.2% and left-wing challenger Raman 24.9%. Raman has been winning late batches by enough that she’s now the favourite to finish second and make the runoff.

In the special election for California’s first, with 71% in, Rep Gallagher has 61.1% and will be elected without a runoff. Two Dems combined have 37.1%, with the overall 62.1-37.1 Rep margin (25.0 points) matching Trump’s 2024 margin. The Rep margin will probably drop as more votes are counted.

9:39am Saturday With 66% now in for California’s sixth, Dem Pan takes the lead for the second runoff place from Rep Stansfield. Vote shares are now 25.4% for Rep turned ind Kiley, 22.8% Pan and 21.2% Stansfield, with Dems having the remaining votes. Given the trend in late counting, Pan is now virtually certain to make the runoff, and will be heavily favoured to win the November general election in this seat that was gerrymandered to favour Dems.

9:56am Friday In the UK, a new Survation poll of Makerfield gives Andy Burnham a 49-39 lead over Reform, with 8% for Restore and 1-2% for the Greens, Lib Dems and Tories. Burnham’s lead is up from 43-40 in the mid-May Survation poll.

10:38am Thursday Dems could have a problem in California’s sixth, which was gerrymandered to favour Dems. With 48% in, Rep turned ind Kiley leads with 26.8%, followed by Rep Stansfield with 22.2%. The rest of the field is all Dems, but the leading Dem Pan has 21.2%, which means he will miss the runoff if the current result holds. The two counties that have the large majority of votes in this seat won’t report new votes until Saturday AEST.

3:18pm The California results now are unlikely to change until we get a large amount of late counting. So I’ll adjourn this live blog for now.

2:50pm Dems may miss an opportunity to gain the 40th federal district. Two Rep incumbents were drawn into this one district by gerrymandering. With 46% in, Rep Calvert has 35.5%, Rep Kim 20.4%. The remaining vote is nearly all Dems, but the lead Dem has 16.4%. On current counting, this will be a Rep vs Rep general election.

2:26pm For Los Angeles mayor, with 47% in, incumbent Karen Bass has 36.6%, right-wing challenger Spencer Pratt 30.0% and left-wing challenger Nithya Raman 20.3%. Even if Raman beats Pratt on late counting, Bass should win the general easily.

2:16pm For California governor, with nearly all counties reporting and 47% counted overall, it’s 26.7% Rep Hilton, 25.9% Dem Becerra, 19.7% Dem Steyer and 11.2% Rep Bianco. Steyer needs a big shift from late counting to make the top two, otherwise it will be Becerra vs Hilton in the general.

2:03pm In California 1, with 47% in (results from all counties in this district), Rep Gallagher has 61.3%. Reps overall lead Dems here by 62.5-36.6. On current counting, that’s a small swing to Reps from the 2024 pres election here, but Dems may perform better on post-election day counting.

1:31pm In the California 1 special, with 36% in, Rep Gallagher has 59.6% and is likely to win an overall majority avoiding a runoff in two months.

1:28pm Los Angeles county has reported. With 31% overall in, 27.0% Becerra, 25.6% Hilton, 20.2% Steyer and 9.8% Bianco. The top two qualify for the November general election.

1:23pm With 17% in, 28.9% Hilton, 25.0% Becerra, 18.2% Steyer and 11.7% for Rep Bianco. Nothing yet from Los Angeles.

1:14pm With an estimated 6% in for California governor, Rep Hilton leads with 27.7%, followed by Dems Becerra at 24.5% and Steyer at 17.3%. Urban centres are not yet included.

11:07am Early mail votes will be released soon after polls close in California at 1pm. Votes cast on election day will report later today, but that will only take the California count to about half complete. The New York Times suggests it will take ten days for the count to be 95% complete.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Polls close at 1pm AEST today for California’s jungle primary. At a jungle primary all candidates compete together, and the top two, regardless of party, advance to the November general election.

The main interest will be the California gubernatorial primary. In April it was plausible that Republicans Hilton and Bianco could both advance. But Democrats Becerra and Steyer have both surged in the polls. The Fiftyplusone aggregate has Hilton at 22.2%, Becerra 21.6%, Steyer 19.4% and Bianco well behind with 11.6%. At least one Democrat will advance, avoiding a strongly Democratic state having an all-Republican gubernatorial general election.

Other contests in California will use the same system. If two Democrats or two Republicans advance to the runoff in a competitive seat, that’s a disaster for the opposite party. The first round of a special election in California’s first federal seat will also be today, with a runoff on August 4 if nobody wins a majority, after the Republican incumbent died in January.

At the 2024 presidential election, California’s first voted for Donald Trump by 61.1-36.1 over Kamala Harris, a 24.9-point margin. This seat has been gerrymandered to favour Democrats, with the new lines giving Harris a 12.2-point margin, but these lines won’t apply to the special election. Two Republicans and two Democrats are standing, with Republican Gallagher likely to dominate the Republican vote and win an outright majority.

Republicans currently hold a 218-212 majority in the House of Representatives with four other vacancies. The jungle primary for Democrat Swalwell’s California 14 is on June 16 with a runoff if needed on August 18 after Swalwell resigned in April. A jungle primary will occur in Georgia 13 on July 28 with a runoff if needed on August 25 after the Democratic incumbent died in April.

I wrote for The Conversation on May 15 about two recent court decisions that will result in the federal House map for the 2026 midterm elections favouring Republicans. On April 30, the US Supreme Court allowed southern states to axe their Black seats and on May 8 the Virginia Supreme Court rejected a Democratic 10-1 gerrymander of Virginia’s 11 House seats, despite this gerrymander passing at a referendum.

As a result of these decisions, Democrats need to win the House popular vote by at least four points to have a good chance to win a House majority at November’s midterm elections. In Nate Silver’s aggregate of generic ballot polls, Democrats lead Republicans by 48.6-41.6, a 7.0-point margin. That’s the biggest lead for Democrats this cycle. Trump’s net approval in Silver’s aggregate has improved slightly to -19.0 from a low of -20.2 on May 19.

Democrats need four gains to control the Senate. On national polling, North Carolina and Maine should be gains while other Republican-held states need at least a double-digit Democratic margin to fall. Controversial Democratic and Republican nominees in Maine and Texas respectively could make Maine harder for Democrats and Texas easier.

UK: Can Andy Burnham win the Makerfield by-election?

After dire results for Labour at the May 7 Welsh and Scottish parliamentary elections and English local elections, there has been renewed pressure on PM Keir Starmer’s Labour leadership. Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is seen as the most likely challenger to Starmer, but he needs a seat in the House of Commons first.

On May 14, Labour MP Josh Simons resigned Makerfield to allow Burnham to become an MP if he wins the June 18 by-election. Starmer didn’t attempt to block Burnham, unlike for the February Gorton and Denton by-election. At the 2024 general election, Labour defeated the populist right Reform in Makerfield by 45.2-31.8 with 10.9% for the Conservatives, 6.8% Liberal Democrats and 4.4% Greens. But at the May local elections, Reform won 50% in the eight wards within Makerfield.

A small-sample Survation poll of Makerfield in mid-May gave Burnham a 43-40 lead over Reform, with 7% for Restore (another populist right party), 4% Lib Dems, 3% Greens and 2% Conservatives. In the Election Maps UK aggregate of national polls, Reform leads with 27.7%, followed by Labour at 19.3%, the Conservatives 18.1%, the Greens 14.0%, the Lib Dems 12.3% and Restore 2.9%. The Greens have slid from a high of 15.9% in early April.

Federal polls: YouGov and Roy Morgan (open thread)

Two more pollsters find One Nation yielding the fruits of a post-budget backlash, with the Coalition sinking ever further.

The fortnightly YouGov Sky News Pulse poll joins RedBridge Group and DemoAU in recording a primary vote lead for One Nation, who have surged four points in the second such poll since the budget to 29%, with Labor down two for the second fortnight in a row, to 26%. The Coalition has more than lost the two-point gain it made in the post-budget poll, being down three to 20%, while the Greens are steady on 13%. Two-party measures have Labor leading One Nation 52.5-47.5, in from 53-47, and the Coalition 51.5-48.5, in from 52-48.

Anthony Albanese has taken a hit on his personal ratings, down three on approval to 34% and up four on disapproval to 60%. He holds a 47-41 lead over Pauline Hanson on preferred prime minister, in from 50-38, and 41-39 over Angus Taylor, in from 41-38. Forty-six per cent of all respondents said they believed the Coalition and One Nation should work together to form government with 31% opposed, breaking down to 45% and 28% among Coalition voters and 53% and 25% among One Nation voters. The poll was conducted last Tuesday through to yesterday from a sample of 1471.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has One Nation drawing level with Labor on the primary vote at 27%, with Labor down half a point and One Nation up one-and-a-half, with the Coalition down three to 20% and the Greens steady on 13.5%. Labor’s lead over One Nation on respondent-allocated two-party preferred is unchanged at 53.5-46.5; against the Coalition, Labor’s lead improves from 53-47 to 55.5-44.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, and from 52-48 to 53.5-46.5 on previous election flows. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1542.

Federal polls: RedBridge Group and Fox & Hedgehog (open thread)

One new poll finds One Nation racing to an unprecedented primary vote lead, though another doesn’t go quite so far.

A new poll from RedBridge Group/Accent Research for the Financial Review is the strongest yet for One Nation from any pollster, recording a four-point increase on last month’s result to 31%. This puts them well clear of Labor, who are down three to 28%, and particularly the Coalition, who are down two to 20%, while the Greens are down a point to 12%. Respondent-allocated two-party measures have Labor with leads of 51-49 over both One Nation and the Coalition, which are respectively in from 55-45 and 54-46 last time.

Anthony Albanese’s combined very favourable and mostly favourable rating is down five to 29%, with unfavourable and very unfavourable up five to 48%, and neither down two to 18%. Pauline Hanson is steady on 40% positive, down one to 40% negative and down one to 14% neutral. Angus Taylor is up one to 21% positive, up three to 25% negative and down four to 23% neutral. Whereas Albanese and Hanson have near total name recognition, 21% say they have never heard from Taylor, down only one on last month. Jim Chalmers’ positive rating is down five to 17% and his negative rating is up eight to 35%. A three-way preferred prime minister question has Anthony Albanese down two to 31%, Pauline Hanson up two to 25% and Angus Taylor steady on 14%. Questions on the budget have 23% rating it good for the country as a whole and 53% bad, with 11% saying it would be good for them personally and 48% bad. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1005.

Also just out is a Fox & Hedgehog poll in the News Corp tabloids, which has Labor on 29% (down a point on the last such poll in late March), One Nation on 27% (up four) and the Coalition on 25% (up two), with no result provided in the report for the Greens (UPDATE: Down three to 10%). Respondent-allocated two-party preferred results have the Coalition leading Labor 51-49, reversing the result from the last poll, and Labor leading One Nation 54-46, in from 56-44. The poll also finds 40% agreeing that Pauline Hanson and One Nation are ready for government, with 45% disagreeing. The sample for the poll was 1700, with field work dates not disclosed – hopefully more detail will be provided shortly by the pollster.

UPDATE: Full report from Fox & Hedgehog here. Angus Taylor notably holds a lead on 38-36 lead over Anthony Albanese on preferred prime minister, after Albanese led 39-35 in late March. Albanese is down one on approval to 29%, steady on 19% neutral and up two on disapproval to 51%; Taylor is up five on approval to 29%, down two on neutral to 32% and up five on disapproval to 29% (“never heard of” is down from 18% to 10%). A hypothetical question inclusive of a teal party had it on 6%, with Labor three points to lower at 26%, the Greens one point lower at 9% and the others essentially unchanged. Voluminous further questions on the budget include an overall finding of 19% favourable, 47% unfavourable and 25% neutral. Thirty-two per cent said they had seen the much-hyped social media memes on the budget tax policies, with 60% saying they had not.

Federal polls: Roy Morgan and Essential Research (open thread)

Strong support for Angus Taylor’s promises on immigration show no sign of translating into improved support for the Coalition relative to One Nation.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor down two points to 27.5%, the Coalition down one to 23%, One Nation up one to 25.5% and the Greens up two to 13.5%. Labor’s two-party lead over the Coalition on respondent-allocated preferences is in from 54-46 to 53-47. A Labor-versus-One Nation result has the former leading 53.5-46.5 – I believe we may be getting this in future instead of the Labor-versus-Coalition result based on previous election preference flows. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from 1613.

Also just out is the monthly Essential Research poll, which has Labor down a point to 29%, the Coalition down one to 23%, One Nation (who have either improved or held steady in every monthly result from this series since March last year) up three to 28% and the Greens steady on 11%, with the undecided component down a point to 4%. The pollster’s respondent-allocated 2PP+ measure, which has been weaker for Labor than other pollster’s two-party measures, has Labor in front for the first time since December, the 48-47 result (the balance being undecided) comparing with 49-47 to the Coalition last month. However, personal ratings for Anthony Albanese are his worst yet from this series, his approval down four to 37% and disapproval up three to 54%, and the regular national mood result has a two-point drop in “right direction” to 28% and a four-point increase in “wrong track” to 58%, the worst result since Labor came to power.

Twenty-five per cent expressed approval of the budget with 39% disapproving and 24% neutral, which is at the better end of comparable results in post-budget polling. As in other such polling, responses to its most contentious measures was more positive: winding back negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount on property was supported by 33% and opposed by 27%, with 26% neutral; and tax changes on shares and investments were supported by 32% and opposed by 29%, with 26% neutral. However, only 26% supported the changes on trusts, with 38% opposed. Twenty-eight per cent thought the housing system would be more fair for young people, 30% thought less fair and 22% felt it would make no difference.

The immigration policies announced by Angus Taylor in his budget reply speech found strong support, with 58% in favour of capping immigration to the number of new house builds and 14% opposing, and 57% in favour of limiting welfare to Australian citizens, with 19% opposed. The report in The Guardian relates that the sample size was 1027; it was conducted, I assume, from last Wednesday to this Monday. The full report should be on the pollster’s website later today.

Federal polling: RedBridge Group MRP and DemosAU (open thread)

Two poll findings point to a struggle for Labor to maintain a majority, one being a major seat-modelling exercise conducted before the budget.

A RedBridge Group/Accent Research MRP poll for the Financial Review, based on 6015 responses from April 29 to May 14, has a median seat prediction of 76 seats for Labor, 53 for One Nation, 12 for the Coalition (ten for Liberal, two for Country Liberal – which is to say they are forecast to gain the two Northern Territory seats for Labor), eight for independents, one for Bob Katter and none for the Greens. The first preferences numbers this is based on are Labor 31%, One Nation 28%, Coalition 21% and Greens 11% – a more current field work period would presumably have produced a worse result for Labor. For those new to the multi-level regression with post-stratification concept, the Financial Review explains it “analyses how traits such as age, gender and religion estimate opinions nationwide … then takes those insights and combines them with census data to reconstruct a picture of the area”.

Sixty-two seats out of 150 are rated a better than even chance of changing hands based on the poll’s numbers, which have One Nation gaining all 16 Coalition-held seats in Queensland, all nine of the Nationals’ other seats, 12 seats from the non-Queensland Liberals (mostly regional, but also including urban fringe seats of Lindsay, La Trobe, Casey and Canning) and 16 seats from Labor (nearly all their regional seats, several on metropolitan fringes and two in northern Brisbane). Labor are projected to gain Ryan, Fowler and Mayo from the cross-bench, and Liberal to gain three seats in Melbourne from Labor and Bradfield from teal independent Nicolette Boele.

There is also a conventional federal poll from DemosAU that matches the pollster’s previous result from last month as Labor’s worst since the election, with Labor steady on 26%, the Coalition steady on 23%, the Greens steady on 13% and One Nation up two to 28% – the first primary vote lead recorded by the latter in a regular polling series. The pollster provides a seat projection based on the results that has Labor within a range of 65 to 74, falling short of a majority even at the top end, with One Nation from 47 to 58, the Coalition from 16 to 28, the Greens from one to five and others from two to six.

Respondents were also asked how they would vote if Pauline Hanson retired, it being noted that she is 71, with results of Labor 28%, Coalition 27%, One Nation 21% and Greens 14%. A three-way preferred prime minister result has Anthony Albanese down a point to 34%, Pauline Hanson up three to 27% and Angus Taylor up one to 23%. Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings are up one on positive to 27%, up one on negative to 47%, with 26% neutral; Angus Taylor is up three on positive to 28%, and down one negative to 27%, with neutral at 47%; and Pauline Hanson is up five to 39%, and down three to 36%, with 25% neutral.

The budget was rated generally bad by 43% and generally good by 23%, with 27% agreeing and 36% disagreeing it would make Australia fairer; 28% agreeing and 39% disagreeing it would help long-term housing affordability; 44% agreeing and 17% disagreeing the tax changes would hurt the economy; and 53% agreeing and 16% disagreeing they would make life harder for the average Australian. Nonetheless, 34% approved of the negative gearing measures with 29% disapproving, 28% approved and 29% disapproved of the capital gains tax discount changes, and 27% approved and 34% disapproved of the maximum 30% tax rate on income from trusts. The poll was conducted last Friday to Wednesday from a sample of 1502. Extensive breakdowns are available in the full report.

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