A lengthy period of opinion poll stability may finally have come to an end, if the latest monthly result from Ipsos is any guide.
Courtesy of the Fairfax papers, Ipsos provides the most striking federal poll result in a very, very long time: a 55-45 blowout to Labor, out from 51-49 in Ipsos’s previous monthly result. Powering this is a six point slump in the Coalition primary vote to 33%, from which Labor yields only one point to reach 35%, with the Greens up one to 13% (a high Greens vote being a routine Ipsos peculiarity). This is reflected in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, which find him down nine on approval to 46% and up ten on disapproval to 48%. Bill Shorten is respectively up three to 41% and down two to 52%, and his deficit on two-party preferred has narrowed from 57-30 to 48-36. Ipsos’s respondent-allocated two-party result is also 55-45, after being 50-50 last time.
A question on company tax finds 47% in favour of a reduction from 30% to 25% over ten years, with 44% opposed. However, this notably fails to engage with the issue presently faced, which is whether tax cuts should be advanced to businesses with more than $50 million turnover, a proposition that reliably gets a less favourable response. On energy policy, 54% back the National Energy Guarantee, with 22% opposed. Fifty-six per cent think the government is doing too little to address climate change, compared with only 13% for too much and 28% for about right. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1200.
UPDATE: The Australian has further results from last week’s Newspoll on company tax, showing only 36% support big business company tax cuts being passed through the Senate, with 51% wanting them blocked. There is also a repeat of an unfortunately framed question from early July that privileges support for tax cuts by asking when they should be introduced, rather than if. This finds 34% favouring the “as soon as possible” option, down four from last time; 27% favouring “in stages over ten years”, which is unchanged; and 31% holding out for the third-listed option of “not at all”, which is up four points.
Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings lose their lustre, but the poll trend records no change on voting intention. Also featured: preselection action from Labor in the ACT and the Liberals in Tasmania.
BludgerTrack has been updated this week with new results from Newspoll and Essential Research, both of which provided leadership ratings as well as voting intention, and a Queensland-only federal poll result from YouGov Galaxy. None of this has made any difference to the two-party preferred reading, although both parties are down on the primary vote and One Nation is up. On the seat projection, the Coalition gains a seat in Victoria and loses one in New South Wales, with no change anywhere else. However, conspicuously poor personal ratings for Malcolm Turnbull from Newspoll have knocked the edge off his surge in the BludgerTrack trend. Full results from the link below.
Now on to two areas of intense preselection activity this week, involving Labor in the Australian Capital Territory and Liberal in Tasmania.
Continue reading “BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor”
Essential records a widening of Labor’s lead and improved approval ratings for Bill Shorten.
The latest fortnightly poll from Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 52-48, up from 51-49 in the two previous polls. It also features Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which reflect Newspoll’s in being bad news for the goverment, thought not in quite the same way. Where Newspoll had Malcolm Turnbull’s ratings tanking, Essential has him down only one point on approval, to 42%, and up two on disapproval, also to 42%. However, Essential records an improvement in the ratings of Bill Shorten, who is up three on approval to 34% and down three on disapproval to 44%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 41-27, down from 42-25. Further questions relate to drought and climate change, freedom of speech and social media and the Nine takeover of Fairfax, which you can read about at The Guardian – or when Essential publishes its full report later today, which is also when we will get primary vote numbers.
UPDATE: Full results from Essential Research here. The primary votes are Coalition 39% (down two), Labor 37% (up one), Greens 10% (steady) and One Nation 6% (steady). The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1032.
Also, federal voting intention results have now emerged from the YouGov Galaxy poll of Queensland, which have two-party preferred at 50-50, compared with a 52-48 lead to the Coalition in the last such poll in May, and 54.1-45.9 at the election. The primary votes are Coalition 37% (40% in May, 43.2% at the election), Labor 34% (33% and 30.9%), One Nation 10% (10% and 5.5%) and Greens 9% (10% and 8.8%). This poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday last week, from a sample of 839.
Further results from the Newspoll: 55% would favour lifting restrictions on gas exploration if it would mean lower power prices, with 31% opposed; 37% said Malcolm Turnbull and the Coalition would be “best at maintaining Australia’s electricity supply and keeping power prices lower”, compared with 36% for Bill Shorten and Labor; and 63% said the government’s priority should be keeping energy prices down, compared with 26% for meeting greenhouse gas emissions targets and 8% for preventing blackouts.
Malcolm Turnbull’s hitherto surging personal ratings take a turn for the worse, as both sides lose ground on the primary vote and two-party preferred remains as was.
The latest Newspoll, courtesy of The Australian, is the fourth in a row to show Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Coalition 37% (down two), Labor 35% (down one), Greens 10% (steady) and One Nation 9% (up two). Malcolm Turnbull’s previously surging personal ratings have collapsed – he is down six on approval 36% and up seven on disapproval to 55%, and his lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 48-29 to 44-32. Bill Shorten is steady on 32% approval, and down one on disapproval to 56%.
Very little in it in the latest state poll from Victoria, as the November 29 election looms ever nearer.
UPDATE: The Herald Sun today has three Victorian state marginal Labor seat polls from YouGov Galaxy, with samples of around 520 each. As with the statewide poll, they find little change on the results from the last election, with Labor leading 54-46 in Eltham (52.7-47.3 at the election) and 53-47 in Cranbourne (52.3-47.7), but trailing 51-49 in Carrum, which was won by a 50.7-49.3 margin in 2014. The Herald Sun also has further results from the state poll: 52% think the state headed in the right direction, compared with 36% for the wrong direction; 34% say the “red shirt rorts” affair made them much less likely to trust the government, 23% a little less likely, and 30% no difference; and 33% said the Coalition’s promise to revive the East West Link project made them more likely to vote Coalition, compared with 16% for less likely and 42% for no difference.
With three and a half months to go before the state election, a YouGov Galaxy poll for the Herald Sun records Labor with a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 38%, Coalition 42%, Greens 10% and One Nation 5%. The Herald Sun report opens by saying Labor leads “despite Victorians believing they are too soft on crime”, and while this may be true, it it not supported by the poll, which simply asked which leader and party respondents believed would be tougher. Forty-six per cent rated that Matthew Guy and the Coalition would be, compared with 29% for Daniel Andrews and Labor. Respondents were also asked who would “do better at preventing unnecessary price rises and keeping the cost of living in check”, which has Andrews and Labor on 37% and Guy and the Coalition on 35%. Andrews holds a 40-33 lead on a straightforward better Premier question. I presume the poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday; the sample was 1095.
Below is a poll aggregation chart that combines four results apiece from Newspoll, Galaxy and ReachTEL, twelve from Roy Morgan and twenty-one from Essential Research. ReachTEL, Morgan and Essential are bias-adjusted to make them more like Newspoll and Galaxy. On the current reading of the trend, Labor leads 51.2-48.8, from primary votes of Labor 38.3%, Coalition 41.8% and Greens 10.2%.
Continue reading “YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to Labor in Victoria”
Nearly eighteen months after its election, the McGowan government records a strong result in its first published poll.
The first Western Australian state poll since Labor’s election win in March 2017 comes from YouGov Galaxy, courtesy of the Sunday Times, and it credits Labor with a 54-46 lead on two-party preferred, compared with 55.5-44.5 at the election. The primary votes are Labor 40% (compared with 42.2% at the election), Liberal 32% (31.2%), Nationals 6% (5.4%), Greens 11% (8.9%), One Nation 5% (4.9%). Presumably there were other questions featured in the poll, but that’s all we have for now. The sample for the poll was 800; I presume it was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday.
UPDATE: This turns out to have been part of the same poll from a week ago which found federal voting intention in Western Australia at 51-49 in favour of the Coalition. As such, the field work dates were August 2 and 3, which were the Thursday and Friday of last week.