RedBridge Group: 57-43 to Labor in New South Wales

No encouragement for Kellie Sloane in the first New South Wales state poll since she assumed the Liberal leadership.

The first published poll of New South Wales state voting intention since Kellie Sloane replaced Mark Speakman as Liberal leader shows no improvement in the party’s position, with Labor leading 57-43 on two-party preferred from primary votes of Labor 38%, Coalition 30%, Greens 10% and One Nation 4%. Forty-three per cent agreed the government had the right focus and priorities, with 33% disagreeing, while 20% felt Kellie Sloane and the Coalition deserved to win the next election, with 45% disagreeing. The poll was conducted by RedBridge Group/Access Research from November 24 (three says after Sloane became leader) to December 8 from a sample of 1293 and published in the Financial Review.

Queensland: Resolve poll, Hinchinbrook by-election, electoral reforms

Positive signs for Steven Miles in a poll, negative ones at a by-election, and new laws relaxing restrictions on political donations and tightening ones on prisoners voting.

The Brisbane Times reports state voting intention results from Resolve Strategic for Queensland, which are seemingly being published bi-monthly now, combining the Queensland samples from two of the pollster’s monthly national surveys. This series has lately been reporting what might be thought a surprisingly encouraging result for Labor, given the Hinchinbrook by-election result (on which more below): the Liberal National Party is on 33% (steady), Labor 30% (down two), the Greens 11% (up one) and One Nation 9% (steady). David Crisafulli’s “net likeability” is down a point to plus 16, while Steven Miles’ maintains an improving trend in increasing seven points to plus 5. Crisafulli lead as preferred premier narrows sharply from 39-22 to 35-34. The report says the sample was 869, but a note under the accompanying graphic says 803.

The count for the Hinchinbrook by-election has been concluded, with Wayde Chiesa of the Liberal National Party prevailing over Mark Molachino of Katter’s Australian Party by a margin of 3.7%, a swing to the LNP of 16.9% compared with the October 2024 election result. The LNP primary vote was up 13.0% to 41.2%, with the KAP down 16.3% to 30.1% and Labor down 5.7% to 8.4%.

In further Queensland news, Attorney-General Deb Frecklington announced yesterday that the government would introduce electoral law legislation, which would not at this stage encompass the promised return to optional preferential voting. It proposes:

• Winding back the ban on property developer donations introduced by Labor in 2018 so it applies only to local government elections. Such had been the recommendation of the Crime and Corruption Commission in 2017, but the previous government extended the ban to state elections.

• Quadrupling donation caps presently amounting to around $4800 to a party and $7200 to a candidate by having them apply over a financial year rather than a four-year period.

• Extending the disqualification on prisoners voting from those serving terms of three years or more to one year or more. This is interesting in that an attempt by the Howard government to extend the existing three-year disqualification at federal level to all prisoners regardless of their sentence was overturned by the High Court in the case of Roach v Electoral Commissioner (2007).

• Removing the requirement for the Electoral Commission of Queensland to oversee preselection ballots, which in the estimation of the Courier-Mail “applies uniquely to the LNP as Labor directly appoints candidates through its union-based factions”.

Essential Research 2PP+: 49-45 to Labor (open thread)

Another polling milestone for One Nation, plus other observations on their recent surge.

Essential Research’s fortnightly poll has Labor down two on the primary vote to 34%, the Coalition down one to 26%, the Greens down one to 10% and One Nation up two from what was already a record high to 17%, with 5% undecided. Labor’s lead on the 2PP+ measure narrows from 50-44 to 49-45, with the balance undecided. Monthly leadership ratings have Anthony Albanese down four on approval to 43% and up two on approval to 45%, with Sussan Ley up three to 34% and down one to 43%.

Helpfully, further questions focus on One Nation, though the survey was conducted before Barnaby Joyce announced he was joining the party. Thirty-one per cent rated that the most likely outcome when asked about his next move, compared with 23% for remaining as an independent and 10% for rejoining the Nationals. Thirty-three per cent rated that him joining One Nation would make them more likely to vote for the party, and 52% less likely; 30% that him becoming leader would make them more likely and 54% less likely.

The social media ban on under-16s was supported by 57% and opposed by 21%, though the trajectory is downward, the results having been 63% and 19% when the question was previously asked in September. Fourteen per cent felt it would be effective, 52% somewhat effective and 34% not effective. Sixty-seven percent supported and 15% opposed the social media ban on under-16s, though only 35% were confident it would work, with 58% not confident (similar questions in last week’s Resolve Strategic poll found 67% supportive and 15% opposed, with 35% confident it would work and 50% not confident).

The monthly “national mood” reading has one point increases for both “right direction” and “wrong direction”, to 36% and 48% respectively. Twenty-five per cent felt the year was better than they expected going in, with 40% worse; 26% rate themselves better off and 42% worse off. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1030.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate hitherto had One Nation levelling off, but the addition of this result has the trendline pointing upward again. Which serves as a useful introduction to the following:

• As noted in a previous post, a DemosAU MRP poll published last week projected a median outcome of 12 seats for One Nation, with 98 for Labor, 29 for the Coalition, 12 for One Nation, 11 for others and none for the Greens. One Nation were deemed to be firm in Capricornia, Flynn and Wright; leaning in Hinkler, Wide Bay, Lyne, Parkes and Riverina; and leading in Calare, Canning, Grey and Groom. A follow-up release probed into where One Nation’s support was coming from, offering unsurprising findings about it being among older and non-university educated voters located outside inner metropolitan areas. “Approximately one in five” who voted Coalition in May were now professing support for One Nation.

• Relatedly, I had an analysis published in Crikey last week that drew on current voting intention by past vote numbers from RedBridge Group/Accent Research, Freshwater Strategy and Essential Research to ascertain what seats were likely to be gained by One Nation as their share of the national vote increased. This concluded that Capricornia and Wright would be gained from the Coalition at 12%; Flynn and Hinkler at 14%; Parkes from the Coalition, and Forde and Hunter from Labor, at 15%; Longman at 17%; and Wide Bay and Canning from the Coalition, and Blair from Labor, at 18%.

• Last week’s Resolve Strategic poll found 29% would be more likely and 19% less likely to vote One Nation if Barnaby Joyce led the party, including 39% more likely and 11% less likely among Coalition and 49% more likely and 8% less likely among One Nation (respectively with samples of 448 and 219).

Resolve Strategic: 51-49 to Coalition in Victoria

A poll whose survey period straddled the recent Liberal leadership finds Jess Wilson strongly favoured over Jacinta Allan and gives the Coalition a double-digit primary vote lead, while continue to record a close race on two-party preferred.

The Age reports the bi-monthly Resolve Strategic poll of Victorian state voting intention has Labor on 28% (down two), the Coalition on 39% (up six) and the Greens on 12% (steady), with the Coalition leading 51-49 on respondent-allocated preferences. As usual, this involved a sample of 1100 combining the Victorian samples from the pollster’s two regular monthly national surveys, which in this case complicates matters since it means the first half was conducted before the November 18 Liberal leadership change and the second half after. While the change is well within the margin of error, the report says the Coalition in fact did better in the first part of the period than the second, at 39% and 37% respectively.

Jess Wilson records a net approval rating of plus 11, presumably encompassing only the latter part of the survey, which is “the best by any Liberal leader since Resolve started polling in 2021”. Jacinta Allan is at minus 32, while Wilson leads by 41-24 as preferred premier, compared with a 33-27 lead for Brad Battin two months ago.

UPDATE (RedBridge Group/Accent Research): Now a RedBridge Group/Accent Research poll for the Financial Review records a tie on two-party preferred, after the pollster’s October result had Labor leading 52-48. The primary votes are Labor 31% (down one), Coalition 40% (up three), Greens 12% (down one), “minor left” 2%, “minor right” 4%, independents 6% and others 5%. Jacinta Allan records a 20% combined good and very good rating, 14% neither and 60% poor and very poor, while Jess Wilson is on 25% positive, 23% neutral and 22% negative. The poll was conducted from November 24 (a week after the Liberal leadership change) to December 8 from a sample of 1021. Extensive breakdowns are featured in the accompanying release.

Other Victorian electoral news:

• This site now boasts a Victorian state election poll aggregate, which currently credits Labor with a two-party lead of 50.3-49.7. This uses a bias-adjustment measure in which Newspoll serves as the centre of gravity, but apart from DemosAU’s Labor primary vote being inflated by a bit over two points, the adjustments are fairly modest. A permanent link can be accessed at the top of the sidebar.

• A Freshwater Strategy poll for the Herald Sun, conducted from November 21 to 24 from a sample of 1220 (Wilson became leader on November 18), had a 50-50 result on two-party preferred, with the Coalition on 37%, Labor on 30% and the Greens on 15%. Personal ratings (presumably favourable minus unfavourable, though neutral was a response option) were minus 32 for Jacinta Allan, plus 15 for Jess Wilson and plus 10 for Brad Battin, with Wilson leading Battin 47-31 as preferred premier. Thirty-three per cent said the change made them more likely to vote Liberal, 11% less likely, and 50% neither. Fifty-four per cent felt the change would improve the Coalition’s prospects, with 18% disagreeing and 26% doing neither. Sixty-two per cent professed awareness of the Liberal leadership change, with 32% unaware (always instructive in these cases is the gender gap, with 36% of women and 27% of men conceding ignorance).

• A Liberal preselection for Malvern, to be vacated at the election with the retirement of former party leader Michael O’Brien, was held a fortnight ago and won by Amelia Hamer, a former staffer to then Financial Services Minister Jane Hume and more recently director of strategy for financial technology start-up Airwallex and unsuccessful candidate for Kooyong at the May federal election. Daniella White of The Age reports Hamer, whose backers included Jeff Kennett, scored a surprisingly clear first-round win the ballot with 118 votes to 51 for Jacqueline Blackwell, who led a group that campaigned against prolonged school closures during the pandemic, and had determined backing from Josh Frydenberg. Also in the field were Lana Collaris, a barrister, with 31 votes, and Xavier Boffa, executive director of the Samuel Griffith Society, with 13.

• Annika Smethurst of The Age reports a new outfit called The West party will field candidates in western Melbourne, campaigning on neglect of its fast-growing suburbs. The principal of the outfit is Paul Hopper, who will again run in Werribee after polling 5.9% there as an independent at the February by-election. Hopper has been party to a High Court challenge against exemptions to campaign spending caps for the major parties’ “nominated entities”. Also identified as candidates are Newport Traders Association president Gill Gannon in Williamstown; Luan Walker, a Vietnamese-born former Liberal candidate, in St Albans; and for the Legislative Council, Joe Garra, an obstetrician who polled 11.2% as an independent in Werribee in 2018, and former Wyndham councillor Sahana Ramesh.

Resolve Strategic: 55-45 to Labor (open thread)

Labor remains well on top in the final Resolve Strategic poll for the year, despite concerns about the immigration rate.

What is presumably the year’s final monthly Resolve Strategic poll for Nine Newspapers reverses a movement in the Coalition’s favour in the last result, with Labor’s two-party lead out from 53-47 to 55-45. Labor is up two on the primary vote to 35% and the Coalition down three to 26%, with the Greens down one to 11% and One Nation up two to 14%. Sussan Ley nonetheless records improved personal ratings, her combined very good and good rating on the question of performance in recent weeks up six to 39% (albeit that the improvement is entirely from “good” rather than “very good”) and combined poor and very poor down four to 37%. Anthony Albanese is up four on very good plus good to 48% and down one on poor plus very poor to 43%, and his lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 39-25 to 41-26.

Also featured are questions on immigration that tell a now familiar story: after being told of a system that features “net migration intake of 316,000 per year and grants permanent visas to 185,000 people per year”, 53% rated the level too high, 4% too low and 33% about right, compared with 49%, 5% and 27% when the question was last asked in September. The 53% were then asked about six possible reasons for holding that view, with 81% ticking the box for pressure on housing prices and 52% doing so for “a loss of Australian culture and identity”. Four further questions on potential immigration policies found the most restrictive most favoured, peaking at 64% support and 13% opposition for “pausing any immigration until our housing situation has caught up”. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1800.

Killing season part three: the turn of the SA Liberals

Vincent Tarzia becomes the fourth state or territory Liberal leader to step aside in the space of a month.

With a state election looming on March 21, South Australian Liberal leader Vincent Tarzia has stepped down, citing a wish to focus on his family and local community and denying he had been undermined, and denying knowledge of recently reported efforts to have him make way for Shadow Health Minister Ashton Hurn. The Advertiser reports a statement from Hurn says only that she “will be speaking with my colleagues ahead of a party room meeting”. The deputy leader, Josh Teague, “shrugged off questions of whether he would put his hand up”.

UPDATE (6/12): The Advertiser (which reported this morning that Ashton Hurn was almost certain to be elected leader unopposed after Josh Teague said he would not contest) reports a poll conducted by new-ish outfit Fox & Hedgehog from November 24 to December 5, thus of little use in gauging the temperature after Tarzia’s departure, had Labor leading 61-39 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 41%, Liberal 21%, Greens 12% and One Nation 13%. Peter Malinauskas was rated positively by 51%, neutrally or uncertainly by 25% and negatively by 19%, compared with 17%, 36% and 25% for Tarzia (the balance saying they had never heard of them), with Malinauskas leading 54-18 on preferred premier. Ashton Hurn recorded 10% positive, 29% neutral and 12% negative.

Pauline Hanson recorded the highest approval out of a number of federal politicians canvassed at 38%, though partly this reflected high name recognition, with 24% neutral and 36% negative. Anthony Albanese scored 33%, 24% and 41%, Sussan Ley 16%, 35% and 29%. Further results for Penny Wong, Don Farrell, Alex Antic, Angus Taylor and Andrew Hastie, together with detailed voting intention breakdowns, are featured in the full report.

DemosAU: 56-44 to Labor in Western Australia

A new WA poll records only modest changes on the result that gave Labor a second sweeping win in March.

DemosAU has the first poll of state voting intention in Western Australia since the March election, showing Labor leading 56-44, compared with 57.1-42.9 at the election. The primary votes are Labor 41% (41.4% at the election), Liberal 30% (28.0%), Nationals 6% (5.2%) and Greens 13% (11.1%). Roger Cook is rated positively by 35%, neutrally by 38% and negatively by 27%; Basil Zempilas scores 30% positive, 37% neutral and 33% negative; and Cook leads 47-34 on preferred premier. Forty-three per cent regard the state as heading in the right direction, compared with 40% for wrong direction. The poll was conducted November 10 to 26 from a sample of 1012.

US Tennessee 7 federal special election live

Can Democrats gain a seat Trump won by 22 points in 2024? Also, the Canadian Liberals barely win a parliamentary budget vote.

Live Commentary

3:17pm I’ve done an article for The Conversation about Trump’s ratings and Australian polling.

2:16pm The near-final result is Rep by 53.9-45.1, an 8.8-point margin. That’s still a large swing to the Dems from Trump’s 22.3-point margin in this district in 2024.

1:47pm The Republican has been called the winner, taking Reps to a 220-213 House lead over Dems with two Dem vacancies.

1:37pm The last bit of Davidson reduces the Rep’s lead to 5.4 points with 93% in. The NYT projection is at Rep by 6.9 points.

1:24pm With 81% in, the Rep now leads by 8.0 points. The final NYT estimate is at Rep by 7.7. That’s still a 14.5-point swing to Dems from the 2024 pres results, but a clear Rep win.

12:55pm We now have two nearly complete counties: both rural. The Dems have a swing from the 2024 pres result of 9.3 points in one and 17 points in the other. With 58% in, the Rep has just retaken the lead by 0.3% and the NYT now has him winning by 5.6 points.

12:50pm As the election day vote comes in, counties appear to be becoming more Rep-leaning. The E-day vote has been better for Reps since Trump’s original election in 2016.

12:37pm The Dem takes a 7.2-point lead with results from Davidson. But the NYT still has the Rep winning by 2.9 points when everything counted.

12:24pm Still no results from three counties, including from Davidson which is expected to be heavily Dem. With 26% in, the Rep leads by 16, with the NYT estimate at Rep by 2.9.

12:15pm With 20% in, the Rep lead falls to 12.6 points and the New York Times estimate is for a final margin of 3.1 points to the Rep.

12:10pm Rural counties in TN 7 have reported so far, and the Rep leads by 71-26 with 3% in.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Polls close at 12 noon AEDT today for a federal special election in Tennessee’s Republican-held seventh district. The former member resigned in late July, so there’s a 4.5-month gap from vacancy to election. At the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump won this district by 22.3 points over Kamala Harris.

At 59 state and federal special elections held in 2025, Democrats have improved on the 2024 presidential margins by an average of 13.1 points. An Emerson poll of Tennessee 7 that was taken November 22-24 gave the Republican just a 49-47 lead over the Democrat with 4% for others.

Republicans hold the House of Representatives by 219-213 with two Democratic vacancies: the Texas 18th and New Jersey 11th. A “jungle primary” was held in Texas 18 on November 4, but nobody won over 50%, so a runoff between the two top candidates, both Democrats, will occur on January 31, nearly 11 months after the former member died. NJ 11 will hold a special election on April 16 after NJ governor-elect Mikie Sherrill resigned her House seat. Georgia Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene has announced she will resign on January 5.

Trump’s net approval in Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls has improved two points to -13.1 from a low of -15.0 on November 23. Currently 54.5% disapprove and 41.4% approve. In Fiftyplusone’s aggregate of the generic ballot, Democrats lead Republicans by 4.3 points, a slight improvement for Democrats compared to late October.

In gerrymandering news, the Texas gerrymander that created five additional Republican seats was struck down by a federal court. Republicans have appealed this decision to the Supreme Court, which has put the lower court’s decision on hold while it deliberates. Regardless of the outcome of Texas court cases, California’s Democratic gerrymander remains in place; this was approved at a referendum by 64.4-35.6 (28.8 points).

In final results from other November 4 elections, Democrats won the Virginia governorship by 15.4 points, the attorney-general by 6.6 and lieutenant-governor by 11.6. They won the lower house by 64-36. In NJ, Democrats won the governorship by 14.4 points and the lower house by 57-23. In 2024, Harris won NJ by 5.9 points, Virginia by 5.8 and California by 20.1.

Canadian Liberals barely win budget vote

The centre-left Canadian Liberals hold 170 of the 343 House of Commons seats (up one since the April election owing to a defection from the Conservatives), the Conservatives 143, the separatist Quebec Bloc 22, the left-wing NDP seven and the Greens one. The Liberals are just short of the 172 needed for a majority.

On November 17, the Liberals won a budget vote by 170 to 168 with only the sole Green supporting among non-Liberal parties. The budget was saved by the absence of two NDP and two Conservative MPs. The Liberal Speaker can only vote to break ties. Had the budget vote been lost, a new election would have been required.

Also in Canada, there was a provincial election in Newfoundland and Labrador on October 14. The Conservatives gained government with 21 of the 40 seats (up eight since the 2021 election). The Liberals won 15 seats (down seven) and the NDP two (steady). Vote shares were 44.4% Conservatives (up 5.6%), 43.4% Liberals (down 4.8%) and 8.3% NDP (up 0.3%). All Canadian elections use first past the post.

Right-winger likely to win Chile presidential election

Presidential and legislative elections occurred in Chile on November 16. Left-wing incumbent Gabriel Boric was unable to run owing to term limits. Communist Jeannette Jara, who served in Boric’s administration, won 26.9%, with right-winger José Antonio Kast following with 23.9%. Jara and Kast will proceed to a December 14 runoff. The other candidates were mostly right-wing and polls give Kast a large lead, so Kast should win.

All of the 155 lower house seats were elected by proportional representation in multi-member electorates. Right-wing parties won a combined 76 seats (up five since 2021), two short of a majority. Left-wing parties won 64 seats (down 15), with the populist Party of the People winning 14 seats (up eight). In the Senate, 23 of the 50 seats were up by multi-member PR. Left-wing parties won these seats by 12-11 for an overall 25-25 tie.

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