Resolve Strategic: Labor 29, One Nation 25, Coalition 24 in New South Wales

As the New South Wales state election moves closer into view, Resolve Strategic finds no signs in slackening for One Nation.

The Sydney Morning Herald today reports on the bi-monthly New South Wales state polling numbers from its regular Resolve Strategic series, in a report that does not appear to be online at the time of writing, although the results can be found on the website’s Resolve Monitor feature. This records little change on the previous result, with Labor unchanged at 29%, One Nation unchanged at 25%, the Coalition up a point to 24%, and the Greens unchanged at 11%. With Mike Newman now anointed as One Nation’s prospective parliamentary leader, there is now a three-way preferred premier question which has Chris Minns at 27%, Kellie Sloane at 15% and Newman at 8%, compared with Minns’ 36-16 lead over Sloane two months ago.

The poll combines the New South Wales results from the pollster’s last two monthly national surveys for an overall sample of 1100. The 550 respondents to the more recent monthly survey were asked about the federal-state agreement on tighter gun laws, finding 63% in support with 19% opposed.

Further New South Wales state election news:

• The Australian reported on Tuesday on a poll of 1000 respondents conducted for the Minerals Council of Australia by Insightfully, which had Labor and One Nation each on 29%, with the Coalition on 18% and the Greens on 13%. The poll was conducted August 5 to 12 from a sample of 1000.

• The Sydney Morning Herald reported a fortnight ago that a “recent private poll” in Cessnock, which will be contested for One Nation by leadership hopeful Mike Newman, had One Nation leading Labor by 50% to 24%.

• James Griffin, who succeeded Mike Baird as Liberal member for Manly in 2017, announced a fortnight ago that he will not seek re-election. The Daily Telegraph’s The Sauce column reports candidates for Liberal preselection could include upper house member Natalie Ward; Adelaide Cuneo, who “works in the energy sector”; and Northern Beaches deputy mayor Georgia Ryburn. Alexandra Smith of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Elouise Massa, who has campaigned for a government takeover of Northern Beaches Hospital since failures were identified by a review into the death of her son, will run as an independent.

• A week on from James Griffin’s announcement, Liberal colleague Alister Henskens announced that he too will bow out at the election as the member for one of the party’s safe seats. Henskens entered parliament as the member for Ku-ring-gai in 2015, transferring to the successor seat of Wahroonga after it was abolished in 2023.

• The Byron Shire Echo reports Byron Shire councillor Janet Swain has won a Labor preselection ballot for the seat of Ballina, which will be vacated at the election with the retirement of Greens member Tamara Smith.

Federal polling: DemosAU, Morgan, One Nation breakdowns (open thread)

The Coalition takes a big hit in one poll and a smaller one in another, while Roy Morgan offers detail on One Nation support by country of birth.

The monthly DemosAU federal poll for Capital Brief departs from the pack in recording a five-point drop in Coalition support to 20%, with Labor up two to 28%, One Nation up two to 26% and the Greens up one to 13%. Anthony Albanese is up a point on his positive rating to 29%, up one on neutral to 26% and down two on negative to 45%; Angus Taylor is entirely unchanged at 23%, 50% and 27%; and Pauline Hanson is up two to 32%, up one to 24% and down three to 44%. A three-way preferred prime minister question has Albanese up one to 36%, Taylor down two to 21% and Hanson up three to 25%.

The poll also finds 65% agreeing that social media platforms “should be legally required to reduce risks” compared with 22% for an alternative option of them being “free to decide”. It was conducted last Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1583; extensive breakdowns of the voting intention results are as usual featured in the report on the pollster’s website.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor down two to 25%, One Nation up one-and-a-half to 25%, the Coalition down two to 21.5%, and the Greens up one-and-a-half to 16%. Labor’s respondent-allocated two-party lead over One Nation is out from 53.5-46.5 to 54.5-45.5, and its leads over the Coalition are out from 53-47 to 55-45 on respondent-allocated preferences and 52.5-47.5 to 53-47 on previous election preference flows. The poll was conducted September 7 to 13 from a sample of 1583.

Also out from Morgan this week was data compiled from its polling throughout this year breaking out One Nation support by country of birth. While many of the sub-samples would have been exceedingly small, it paints an interesting overall picture, having support for the party at 36% among those born in South Africa, around 30% among continental Europeans, around 25% among those born in Australia, the UK and New Zealand, and lower elsewhere, although the party managed 17% among those born in the Middle East compared with around 10% among those born in eastern and southern Asia.

Victorian polls: RedBridge Group and Resolve Strategic

Plus preselection developments and retirement announcements ahead of the November 28 state election.

Two new state poll results for Victoria, with the November 28 election now only a little two months away (and my state election guide on the way shortly):

• The Financial Review has a RedBridge Group/Accent Research poll that as the Coalition down a point to 29%, One Nation up three to 25% (after a four-point dip last time), Labor up a point to 24% and the Greens up a point to 15%. Respondent-allocated two-party preferred measures have the Coalition leading Labor 56-44, but Labor leading One Nation 53-47. The poll was conducted September 1 to 14 from a sample of 2371. RedBridge Group’s Kos Samaras offers an exposition on the results and promises more detail to follow.

• Nine Newspapers’ Resolve Strategic series, which is reporting Victorian state results on a monthly basis until the election, records little change on last time, with Labor steady on 25%, the Coalition up a point to 28%, One Nation steady on 23% and the Greens steady on 12%. Jess Wilson is up two on preferred premier to 28%, with Ben Carroll unchanged on 20% and One Nation’s Warren Pickering down two to 8%, leaving an unchanged 44% undecided. Further questions find 49% favouring pausing or cancelling the Suburban Rail Loop, with 27% preferring that it proceed as planned; 35% support for the government’s policy to fund dental care clinics, with 43% favouring its cancellation. The poll was conducted Sunday to Saturday from a sample of 967.

• There is also a result from Roy Morgan that combines 643 responses from a full year of polling in the Greens-held seats of Melbourne, Brunswick and Richmond, which finds the Greens on 41%, Labor on 35%, the Liberals on 14% and One Nation on 2%. The combined result across the three seats in 2022 was Greens 38.7%, Labor 30.6% and Liberal 15.7%.

Other recent election-related news:

• After a long period of holding its fire, One Nation has lately been unveiling lower house candidates on its website. One such is Michael Piastrino, an Albert Park hairdressing salon owner who demonstrated a penchant for Trumpian rhetoric as Liberal candidate for Daniel Andrews’ seat of Mulgrave in 2022, who is running against former Liberal leader in Berwick.

• The Australian’s Victoria Ink column reports the only nominee to succeed Jacinta Allan as Labor candidate in Bendigo East is Timothy Rickwood, a teacher at Bendigo Senior Secondary College who shares Allan’s alignment with the Socialist Left.

• In Bendigo West, where Labor member Maree Edwards likewise announced last month that she would not seek re-election, the the two nominees for preselection are Brenton Baldwin, a former staffer to Jenny Mikakos, and Toby Heydon, who serves Forest Creek ward on Mount Alexander Shire Council.

• Controversial Liberal-turned-independent upper house MP Moira Deeming has joined Family First and will seek re-election in Western Metropolitan region as its lead candidate.

• David Ettershank, who holds an upper house seat in Western Metropolitan for Legalise Cannabis, has announced he will not seek re-election.

Resolve Strategic: Labor 28, One Nation 27, Coalition 24 (open thread)

Weaker personal ratings for Anthony Albanese, but little change on voting intention in the monthly Resolve Strategic poll.

The latest monthly federal poll from Resolve Strategic in Nine Newspapers records little change on voting intention, with Labor steady on 28%, One Nation up one to 27%, the Coalition up one to 24% and the Greens down one to 11%. Anthony Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is down three points to 34%, while his poor and very poor rating is steady on 53%; Angus Taylor is respectively down one to 39% and down three to 30%; and Pauline Hanson is respectively up one to 47% and down four to 37%. The now established three-way preferred prime minister question has Albanese down three to 29%, Taylor up two to 21% and Pauline Hanson down one to 25%. The poll was conducted Sunday to Saturday from a sample of 2250; state results for Victoria, and perhaps also New South Wales, should follow over the coming days.

Weekend miscellany: Hastie v Hanson and more (open thread)

Tentative early indications of how the blow-up between Andrew Hastie and One Nation might play out on the political right, plus preselection latest.

Recent items in the news of relevance to a federal election that will presumably be held in early 2028:

• A survey of 1000 prospective One Nation voters conducted recently by former Labor-aligned pollster John Utting and strategist Bruce Hawker was the subject of a comment piece by Peter Hartcher of Nine Newspapers a fortnight ago, which noted that their most favourably viewed public figure after Pauline Hanson was Ben Roberts-Smith, with a favourability approaching 70%. However, another piece by Hartcher today (not yet available online) quotes RedBridge Group pollster Kos Samaras saying his firm’s focus group research suggests “public opinion is siding with Hastie and against Hanson”, on which Samaras further elaborates in a Facebook post.

• The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column reports Northern Territory Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price is pushing for the Country Liberal Party to delay its preselections until next year at its annual convention this weekend, and cites “senior LNP sources” saying she is canvassing support for a move to a seat in south-eastern Queensland, which Price denies. One possibility raised is Forde on Brisbane’s southern fringe, which Labor gained from the LNP at the 2025 election; another is the Gold Coast seat of Moncrieff, held for the LNP since 2019 by Angie Bell. The column further quotes a “well-placed source” asking, “why the f… isn’t she running in Solomon?”

• InDaily reports Robert Simms, a Greens member for the South Australian state upper house, will nominate to succeed Barbara Pocock as the party’s lead Senate candidate in the state at the next election. Simms had a previous spell in the Senate from 2015 to 2016, filling a casual vacancy and then failing to win re-election from second position on the party ticket at the 2016 double dissolution. The party’s state secretary, Isaac Astill, has also said he will nominate. Pocock announced last month she would not seek re-election, but InDaily reports she will serve out her remaining term.

• The Australian’s Victoria Ink column reports suggestions Mark Dreyfus is manoeuvring for Jim Round, former chief-of-staff to Dreyfus and current chief-of-staff to Assistant Treasurer Daniel Mulino, to succeed him in his seat of Isaacs at the next election. However, another candidate might be Steve Michelson, a former staffer to Bill Shorten. The seat has traditionally been a preserve of Shorten’s Australian Workers Union sub-faction of the Right, whereas Round is aligned with the Left.

• A by-election is being held today for seat of Mulka in the Northern Territory parliament, eastern Arnhem Land, following the resignation of Yiŋiya Mark Guyula. It is not being contested by the governing Country Liberal Party, leaving two candidates: Labor’s Yiwarr McGrath, described by the ABC as a “nurse and Yolŋu man from remote Elcho Island”, and independent Andrew Blamey, an East Arnhem Regional Council library program assistant.

YouGov: Labor 26, One Nation 30, Coalition 18 (open thread)

Another strong poll result for One Nation in the wake of its Secret Harbour by-election triumph.

The fortnightly YouGov/News24 Pulse poll finds One Nation returning to its June peak, the Coalition only one point up on where it was at the time, and Labor three points lower for its equal worst result of the term. Labor is down three on last fortnight to 26%, with One Nation up four to 30%, the Coalition down three to 18% and the Greens steady on 12%. Labor’s two-party lead over One Nation narrows from 56-44 to 53-47, and its lead over the Coalition is in from 53-47 to 52-48.

Movements on leaders’ ratings are rather more modest: Anthony Albanese is up one on approval to 36% and steady on 59% disapproval; Angus Taylor is up three to 36% and down one to 48%; Albanese’s lead over Taylor is in from 44-37 to 43-39; and his lead over Hanson is in from 52-37 to 51-40. Questions on immigration including a finding that 36% think One Nation would be best to manage it, compared with 18% each for Labor and the Coalition. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to this Tuesday from a sample of 1510.

DemosAU: 56-44 to LNP in Queensland

One Nation takes a dip from recent heights in the latest poll from the movement’s state of origin.

DemosAU had the last in its tranche of quarterly state polls, this time from Queensland, which has the Liberal National Party steady on 34%, Labor up one to 26%, One Nation down three to 21% and the Greens up one to 11%. The LNP’s two-party lead over Labor narrows from 58-42 to 56-44, and David Crisafulli’s lead over Steven Miles as preferred premier narrows from 47-30 to 45-33. Individual leadership ratings, which did not feature last time, have Crisafulli at 42% positive, 28% neutral and 24% negative, and Steven Miles at 30%, 26% and 35%. The poll was conducted August 22 to September 2 from a sample of 1291.

Morgan: Labor 27, One Nation 26.5, Coalition 21.5 (open thread)

A move to Labor from last week fails to stick in the latest result from the Roy Morgan series.

In what looks like a quiet week on the federal polling front, we at least have the regular Roy Morgan poll, which all but erases the lead Labor opened over One Nation last week in having the former down two-and-a-half points to 27% and the latter up three to 26.5%. The Coalition is up a point to 21.5% and the Greens are up one to 14.5%. Labor’s lead over One Nation on the respondent-allocated two-party measure narrows from 55.5-44.5 to 53.5-46.5; over the Coalition, Labor’s lead is in from 56-44 to 53-47 on respondent allocated preferences and from 55-45 to 52.5-47.5 on previous election preference flows. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1541.

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