The Poll Bludger

NZ election live and US late counting

The centrist Opportunity will probably win the balance of power at today’s New Zealand election. This post will also follow late counting in the US mid-term elections.

Live Commentary

11:09pm It’s taking NZ too long to count those final 1% of booths. I’ll report the final election night results tomorrow morning.

11pm On the current count, Nat’s seat entitlement should be 35 seats, so they’re getting a seven-seat overhang. TPM’s seat entitlement should be one. By winning five electorates, they’re getting a four-seat overhang.

10:55pm With 98.8% counted, Lab leads Nat by 0.04% on party votes, but Nat is still winning 42 electorate seats and the right has 67 of 131 seats, one above the 66 needed for a majority.

10:27pm With 97.6% counted, Labour is just 0.02% behind National on party votes, but Nat are winning the electorates by 42-21 over Lab, with five TPM, two Greens and one ACT. The right overall has 67 of 130 seats.

9:43pm With 94% of booths in, there hasn’t been much change since the last update, with Nat leading Lab in electorates by 42-20 and the right overall winning 66 of 129 seats. These results won’t be the final count. We won’t know that result until Nov 27.

9:01pm 88% of booths have been counted. The last 12% are probably bigger booths, so they could have a larger impact on the result than you would think. The right has 66 of 129 seats currently. Opportunity is at 5.9%, and will clear the 5% threshold.

8:48pm Lab is starting to climb again, up to 29.06% after falling to 28.95%. Nat has lost leads in two electorates, and now lead electorates by 41-22 over Lab with five TPM. The right overall has 66 of 129 seats, one above the 65 required for a majority with 83% overall counted.

8:36pm Nat now winning electorates by 43-20 over Labour with five TPM, two Greens and one ACT. With 79% overall counted, the right has 68 of 131 seats, two above the 66 needed for a majority.

8:16pm Nat loses the lead in an electorate seat, now winning electorates by 41-21 over Lab. With 70% overall counted, the right has 66 out of 129 total seats.

8:08pm With 66% overall counted, Lab’s drop continues as they now trail Nat by 0.36%. The right is winning 67 of 130 seats.

7:54pm Lab continues to drop as the election day vote comes in, now trailing Nat by 0.1%, with Opportunity at 5.7%. With 56.6% counted overall, Nat leads the 71 electorates by 42-20 over Lab, with five for TPM, three Greens and one ACT. Right-wing parties have an overall 67 out of 131 seats on current counting, a majority.

7:44pm As the election day vote has started to come in, Lab and Nat are back to a virtual tie (Lab by 0.03) with 51% overall counted. On the advance votes, Lab led by 0.7%. Right-wing parties are just above a majority with 67 of the 131 total seats.

7:23pm There are now about 75,000 election day votes counted out of nearly 1.6 million total. So far Lab is doing a little worse and Nat a little better on these votes, which are probably unrepresentative. With 40% overall counted, the overhang is up to 11 seats, with Nat winning the electorates over Lab by 42-20 despite losing the party vote by 0.34%. The right has 66 of these 131 current seats.

7:10pm Greens are helping Nat win some seats under FPTP. Eg in Nelson, Nat lead Lab by 406 with the Greens on over 2,200 votes, though ACT has 978.

6:57pm With 31.9% counted, Lab leads Nat by 0.44% on party votes, but Nat is leading on electorates by 41-21, with TPM still winning five electorates. This is producing a 10-seat overhang, with the right having 65 of 130 seats, one short of a majority. There are not many election day votes counted yet.

6:35pm Despite trailing Lab by 0.5% on party votes, Nat leads Lab by 42-20 in the electorates. That’s currently giving the right 66 of 130 seats.

6:24pm Nat’s seat lead over Lab is down to 40-22 with 26% in, with the right no longer having an overall majority, currently they’re at 64 of 128 seats.

6:18pm Labour overtakes Nat on party votes by 0.1% with 24.9% counted, but they’re still losing the electorate count by 41-21.

6:12pm With 23.5% counted overall, Nat is just 0.1% ahead of Labour on party votes, and the overall right is down to a bare majority 65 seats out of 129. Opportunity is at 5.4%, above the 5% threshold. Nat leads Lab on electorate seats by 41-21.

5:48pm With 17.5% overall counted, National has lost a lead in an electorate, so they’re down to 42 electorate seats out of 71. The right-wing parties have 67 of 129 seats. The gap between National and Labour’s party vote has been narrowing.

5:42pm In the Maori electorate of Waiariki, TPM is so far getting nearly 5,000 electorate votes but just 735 party votes. This explains why TPM is only getting 0.4% of the national party vote while winning five electorates.

5:30pm With 9.7% in, there’s a nine-seat overhang (129 seats). Nat, ACT and NZF have a combined 68 seats on current counting, enough for a right majority without needing Opportunity.

5:22pm With 5.4% of booths in, National is winning 41 electorate seats, three higher than its entitlement, and TPM is winning five electorates, five higher than entitled given its party vote of just 0.3%. If this holds, parliament will have 128 seats, an eight-seat overhang.

5:11pm There’s already some results from Advance voting. With 1.2% counted, National 31.0%, Labour 29.8%, Greens 12.2%, ACT 11.0%, NZ First 9.4%, Opportunity 5.7% and TPM 0.3%.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Polls close at 5pm AEDT today for the New Zealand election. Advance (pre-poll) votes will be counted quickly after polls close, with election day votes taking longer. NZ media don’t use booth-matched swings. The final election night count is still preliminary, with no further updates until final results are reported on November 27. In past elections, left-wing parties have gained one or two seats from the preliminary results to the final results.

NZ uses the Mixed Member Proportional system with a nominal 120 seats in parliament. To qualify, parties must either win at least 5% of the party list vote or at least one of the 71 single-member electorates. However, if a party wins more electorates than their entitlement from the party vote, they keep their extra seats and parliament is expanded (an “overhang”).

I wrote about the final three pre-election polls for The Conversation on Friday. If the polls are accurate, right-wing governing parties (National, ACT and NZ First) will have a 2—5 point lead over left-wing parties (Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori (TPM)). But the centrist Opportunity has between 5.1% and 6.2%. If they clear the 5% threshold, they are likely to gain the balance of power between the left and right.

There are seven electorates reserved for those on the Māori roll. In Monday’s Conversation article, I said if TPM wins at least three of these electorates, they would get an overhang, as they’re at 2% or less in national polls. Other possibilities of overhangs involve one of Labour or National overperforming in electorates (as both traditional major parties’ votes are low).

US mid-term election updates

Democrats are increasingly likely to win the Senate by 56—44 over Republicans, a nine-seat gain for Democrats. In the Mississippi Senate contest, Democrat Scott Colom has kept extending his lead since election night over Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith. Colon now leads by 0.27 points or nearly 2,600 votes. I previously wrote that late counting in Alaska will strongly favour Democrat Mary Peltola.

In the House, Democrats lead Republicans by 254—162 in called races with 19 still uncalled. Most uncalled seats have Republican leads, including two Louisiana seats that had “jungle primaries” on Tuesday and will go to runoffs on December 12. If uncalled seats are assigned to current leaders, Democrats are leading by 259—176. Republican Lauren Boebert is currently losing her Colorado fourth seat by 0.83 points.

The Cook Political Report now has a popular vote tracker, with Democrats leading by 55.7—42.9, a 12.8-point margin. This lead will expand further as Democratic strongholds like California are slow to count their votes. The swing to the Democrats from a 2.6-point Republican margin in 2024 has enabled them to overcome Republican gerrymanders in some states to make gains, with only Louisiana’s gerrymander likely to be successful (pending the runoffs).

I mentioned before that Democrats had taken full control in Pennsylvania and Michigan (governor and both chambers of the state legislature). Democrats also took full control in Arizona for the first time in 60 years, and in Wisconsin for the first time since 2010.

Israeli and Spanish election updates

At the October 27 Israeli election, Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing governing coalition won 53 of the 120 seats, Jewish opposition parties 48 and Arab parties 19. On Thursday, Gadi Eisenkot, the leader of the largest opposition party, secured endorsements from 67 MPs (the opposition bloc plus the Arab parties), while Netanyahu only had endorsements from 46, with the ultra-Orthodox UTJ, which is part of Netanyahu’s bloc, abstaining. President Isaac Herzog will announce his decision Sunday on who gets the first opportunity to form a government. That candidate will have six weeks to form a government.

I previously wrote on October 20 about the snap November 29 Spanish election. Polls still mostly have the conservative People’s Party (PP) ahead of the governing Socialists, with 19—20% for the populist right Vox, indicating a combined majority of seats for PP and Vox. However, the most recent poll has the Socialists leading the PP, although the combined vote for national right-wing parties is still ahead of the combined left vote.

Victorian election minus three weeks

Two new Victorian state polls, both with the Coalition well ahead on the primary vote, plus further developments from the campaign for the November 28 election.

The Herald Sun today has what promises to be weekly results of a campaign tracking poll that will conduct weekly surveys and publish as two-week rolling averages. Branded Lighthouse Political Monitor, the polling is conducted by Growth Intelligence Centre, News Corp’s internal research and data analytics operation. The poll has the Coalition on 31%, Labor on 23%, One Nation on 22% and the Greens on 14%. The poll recorded a minus 21 net favourability rating for Ben Carroll and plus 9 for Jess Wilson. It was conducted October 19 to November 1 from a sample of 1289. A further poll should be along from DemosAU fairly shortly.

There was also a Roy Morgan SMS poll conducted late last week which put the Coalition on 29.5% (up three-and-a-half on three weeks ago), Labor on 22.5% (steady), One Nation on 22% (down three) and the Greens on 12.5%. The Coalition’s two-party lead is out from 55-45 to 56-44. The poll was conducted October 26 to 29 from a sample of 3610.

Also:

• The report by James Campbell of the Herald Sun accompanying the Lighthouse poll noted that Labor’s digital advertising spend was targeting seats seemingly as safe as Dandenong (margin 18.3%) and Kalkallo (16.5%), and that “the Premier’s seat of Niddrie is also being heavily targeted”.

• The Age reports Barnaby Joyce talking down his party’s prospects at the Victorian election by accusing “those who wish to disparage us” of characterising it as a “litmus test” for the party, a distinction that properly belongs to the New South Wales election in March.

• Anthony Galloway of The Australian reports the Liberal Party is considering pursuing a deal with Labor in which it would revert to its pre-2022 practice of putting the Greens last on its how-to-vote cards, in return for which Labor would direct preferences to Liberal or “at least run an open ticket” (the latter assuredly being more plausible) in Prahran. The report says the Liberals are divided over who to put last, and notes that flyers calling for the party to relegate the Greens are being distributed in the Jewish community stronghold of Caulfield.

• Labor and Liberal remain at loggerheads over whether designated One Nation leader Warren Pickering should be included in the leaders’ debate, which Labor sees as an opportunity to promote concerns about a One Nation-backed Coalition government. The prospective host, the Nine Network, had hitherto been in Labor’s corner, but reached a deal with Wilson over a head-to-head debate next Thursday, which Labor refuses to countenance. A News24 People’s Forum event including Carroll, Wilson, Pickering and Greens leader Ellen Sandell will be held on Tuesday week.

Friday miscellany: Capricornia, One Nation polling and more (open thread)

Matt Canavan declares his hand for a lower house bid, while Pauline Hanson and Jacinta Price are set to remain in the Senate.

Recent federal electoral developments:

• Nationals leader Matt Canavan has confirmed he will abandon his Senate seat and seek preselection for the central Queensland lower house seat of Capricornia, which will be vacated at the election with the retirement of Michelle Landry. Canavan will have to overcome One Nation in what looks like being one of their strongest seats, though he was arguably no more secure in the second position on the Liberal National Party Senate ticket, the first being locked up by the Liberal-aligned James McGrath. One Nation national director James Ashby says he has ruled out suggestions he will run for the seat. It was also suggested Capricornia might provide a lower house berth for Pauline Hanson, but The Australian reports the expectation in the party is that she will remain in the Senate, as it would be “risky” for her to face “the cumulative resources of every other party” in a lower house seat. The report further says that Barnaby Joyce is expected to remain in New England, contrary to the plan for him to run in the Senate when he joined the party in December last year.

• The Australian and the Financial Review reported last week on polling conducted by PureProfile for gas exploration company Advent Energy across the Hunter and Central Coast region seats of Newcastle, Hunter, Paterson, Shortland, Dobell and Robertson. The federal voting intention results were Labor 29%, compared with 43.0% across the six seats in 2025; One Nation 33%, compared with 9.0%; Coalition 14%, compared with 24.7%; and Greens 16%, compared with 11.3%. Applying the preference flows from Hunter (the only one in which the final count was between Labor and One Nation) gives One Nation an overall lead of 51.5-48.5. The poll was conducted September 29 to October 16 from a sample of 1029.

• The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column reports Jacinta Price has nominated for preselection for her existing position as the Country Liberal Party’s Senate candidate for the Northern Territory, repudiating suggestions she might seek a lower house berth on the Gold Coast.

• Amid the controversy around Western Australian Greens Senator Jordon Steele-John last month, the ABC reported the front-runners to lead the party’s ticket at the next election were Sophie McNeill, state upper house MP and former ABC reporter, and Sophie Greer, chief-of-staff to Steele-John.

US mid-term elections live

In Nate Silver’s forecast model, Democrats are strong favourites to gain control of the Senate and overwhelming favourites in the House.

Live Commentary

7:08am Friday In Mississippi Senate, the Dem’s lead has expanded to 1,724 votes or 0.18%. In the House nationally, Dems now lead in called races by 251-155 with 29 remaining uncalled.

5:43pm Dems have also won a trifecta in Michigan for the second time in the last 40 years. They also won the trifecta in 2022.

5:32pm Democrats have gained control of the Pennsylvania state Senate for the first time since 1978, winning by 26 seats to 24. That gives Dems the trifecta in Pennsylvania (governor and both chambers of the legislature). Dems also gained four Penn federal House seats.

4:37pn In the LA mayoral election, centre-left incumbent Karen Bass is trailing left-wing challenger Nithya Raman by 51.7-48.3 with 72% in. Later votes in California skew left, so I expect Raman to win. No to the wealth tax’s lead has been reduced to 55.3-44.7 with 61% in statewide, but it’s very unlikely to pass. Dems gained control of the Texas state House and North Carolina state House, but didn’t win either state’s state Senate.

12:25pm I’ve done an article for The Conversation on these results. It’s the first time Dems have won Kansas Senate since 1932 and the first time they’ve won Texas Senate since 1992. While polls had the winner right in all states called so far except South Carolina, they understated Dem margins.

12:14pm In Mississippi Senate, the Dem has increased his lead to 0.12 points or 1,138 votes. That’s looking more like another Dem gain.

9:35am Thursday Peltola is back in the lead in Alaska Senate, leading by 48.2-47.9 with 77% in. She will expand that lead and probably win a majority before preferences on late counting. In Mississippi Senate, the Dem has a 65-vote lead (0.01%). In the House, Dems have a 237-147 lead in called seats with 51 still uncalled. Dems have won the Senate by 54-44 with Alaska and Mississippi uncalled. Last night, Michigan was called as a Dem hold.

8:10pm In Alaska Senate, the Rep has taken a 48.6-47.6 lead over the Dem (Peltola) with 74% in, but late counting strongly favours Dems in Alaska, so Peltola should gain the lead back. Alaska uses preferential voting, but Peltola may be over 50% when all votes are counted.

8:06pm Dems have gained the governorships of Ohio, Georgia, Texas and Iowa, and are likely to also win the final three undecided contests in Alaska, Nevada and Kansas.

5:19pm Maine Senate has been CALLED for the Dem, another gain for them.

5:01pm In Mississippi Senate, the Dem has just taken the lead by 0.01 points with over 95% in!

4:45pm With 22% counted in Alaska, the Dem leads by 54-43, but we don’t yet know where those votes are from.

4:15pm The NYT has the Rep barely hanging on in Mississippi Senate by just 0.9 points with 94% in. The Senate would have been worse for Reps if not for wins by 3 points or less in Florida, Miss and Louisiana. Dems are likely to win all their Senate seats by at least four points.

4:05pm In Minnesota, with 77% in, the Dem has taken a 54-43 lead. That will be called soon.

4:02pm In California, with 44% in, the wealth tax for billionaires referendum is losing by 57-43. This was opposed by many Dems.

3:54pm Even though the Rep currently has a 51-46 lead in Minnesota Senate with 49% in, there’s lots more votes remaining in the cities, so the NYT is projecting a final Dem margin of 9.1 points.

3:44pm Iowa also now CALLED for the Dem. That gives Dems 51 Senate seats, a majority. The NYT expects them to win Maine, Minnesota and Michigan with Alaska’s first polls closing at 4pm.

3:28pm Ohio and Kansas Senate contests have been CALLED for the Dems, giving them five Senate gains so far.

3:25pm The Texas governor has also been called a Dem gain, with Dems gaining four governorships so far, in Ohio, Georgia, Iowa and Texas.

3:06pm Texas Senate CALLED for Dem Talarico. He currently leads by 59-39 with 69% in. That’s the third Dem Senate gain today.

2:30pm Although the Dem’s lead in Ohio Senate has narrowed to just 1.2 points with 78% in, the NYT Needle says it’s Very Likely Dem.

2:22pm The NYT Needle now has Mississippi as toss-up with 65% in and Louisiana as Lean Rep with 58% in. Reps were rated higher nearer the beginning of counting in both states.

2:15pm The South Carolina Senate contest has been CALLED for the Dem, who currently leads by 51-47 with 89% in. Polls had the Rep leading by about one point.

2:10pm In the NC state Senate, Dems lead Reps by 18-3 and in the state House by 44-17. They’re still short of a majority in called seats in both chambers. Results like this will allow Dems to scrap Rep gerrymanders and implement their own gerrymanders.

1:42pm The NYT has 54 Senate seats at at least lean Dem, 44 at least lean Rep seats and two toss-ups (Nebraska and Alaska). Alaska polls don’t close until 4pm. Dems are up to an 8.1-point expected final margin in Texas and 5.5 points in Ohio.

1:28pm The NYT Needle now says Texas Senate is likely Dem. On current counting, it looks good for the Dem governor candidate to defeat the Rep incumbent in Texas.

1:09pm SC up to a 94% chance of a Dem win, and Dems are now likely to win the Senate by 53-44 with three toss-ups. In the House, Dems are winning by 230-187 with 18 toss-ups.

12:49pm New Hampshire and North Carolina have both been called for the Dems, with NC the first Dem gain. Florida is a Rep hold, winning by 51-48. That three-point margin is better for Dems than polls expected (a six-point Rep margin in polls). The Reps have also retained Florida governor by 1.2 points.

12:43pm South Carolina up to a 93% chance of a Dem win on the NYT needle with 52% in, projecting as Dem by 4.2 points.

12:19pm The NYT finally has its Needle working. It’s giving Dems a 51-44 Senate lead with five toss-ups. South Carolina is currently a 72% chance of a Dem win.

12:13pm Wichita county, Kansas, has reported 52% of its vote, favouring the Dem Senate candidate by 57-41. Trump won this county by 14 points in 2024.

12pm In Florida Senate, the Rep has just taken a 0.5-point lead with 85% in.

11:59am In Ohio Senate, with 24% in, the Dem is leading by 63-34. But this is all early votes. In South Carolina, with 14% in, the Dem is leading by 52-46. Georgia has just been called for the Dems.

11:53am The Dem’s lead in Indiana 5 has dropped to 57-43 with 60% in. The Rep is barely ahead in Indiana 3 with 49% in.

11:36am With 66% in for Florida Senate, the Dem only leads by 50-49. I expect the Rep to win as the election day votes are counted, plus the conservative Panhandle doesn’t close until noon AEDT.

11:30am With 40% in for Indiana’s 3rd House, the Dem leads by 55-45. It voted for Trump by 31 points in 2024.

11:28am With 50% reporting in Indiana’s 5th House seat, the Dem leads by 60-40. This district voted for Trump by 17 points in 2024.

11:14am The Dem Senate candidate leads in Florida by 52-47 with 49% in. But election day votes were better for the Reps than early votes.

11:11am In my Conversation article I said Florida counts fast. With 36% in, Dem Jolly has a 52-47 lead.

11:10am The Dem governor candidate leads by 55-44 in Florida with 4% in. There are still no results for the Senate.

11:04am With 9% reporting in Kentucky, the Dem Senate candidate has taken a 52-47 lead over the Rep. The Rep will probably win when all votes are in.

10:24am Dems are also leading by 58-42 with 31% in in the Rep-held Indiana 3rd House seat.

10:18am In Indiana’s 5th House district, a Dem is leading a Rep incumbent by 64-36 with 31% in. It’s likely that’s early vote and the Rep will do better with the election day vote.

9:20am Turnout reports haven’t been showing a massive Republican edge, suggesting that the polls are probably about right.

The first polls for today’s US midterm elections close at 10am AEDT in the eastern time zones of Indiana and Kentucky. The real action will start at 11am when polls close in Senate contests in South Carolina and Florida. A guide to poll closing times is in Tuesday’s article for The Conversation.

In Nate Silver’s final forecast, Democrats have an 82% chance to gain control of the Senate and a 96% chance to gain control of the House of Representatives. They lead on the generic ballot by 9.3 points. However, Donald Trump’s net approval has rebounded to -20.4 from a low below -24.

In Senate contests in five states Trump won by double-digit margins in 2024, Democrats lead by 3.3 points in Texas, 2.4 points in Alaska, 1.1 points in Iowa, 4.0 points in Kansas and 3.0 points in Ohio. Republicans lead by just 1.1 points in South Carolina and 1.2 points in Nebraska against an independent.

There are two other Senate contests where Democrats had been struggling given Kamala Harris won Maine by 6.9 points in 2024 and Trump only won Michigan by 1.4 points. The Democratic candidates lead by 3.9 points in Republican-held Maine and by 4.9 points in Democratic-held Michigan.

Israeli election: what happens next

At the October 27 Israeli election, Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing governing coalition won 53 of the 120 seats, Jewish opposition parties 48 and Arab parties 19. All blocs are well short of the 61 needed for a majority. After these results are officially declared today, President Isaac Herzog has until November 11 to nominate someone who can form government: this will be either Netanyahu or Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the biggest opposition party (Yashar with 21 seats).

The candidate nominated by Herzog has six weeks to form a government, including a two-week extension. If the first candidate fails, a second attempt can be made with a different candidate. If no government is formed by either candidate in the next three months, there will need to be new elections. Netanyahu remains caretaker PM until a new government is formed.

NZ and Bulgarian elections and Canadian by-elections

The New Zealand election is on Saturday, with polls closing at 5pm AEDT. I wrote for the NZ edition of The Conversation on Monday that a Verian poll last week gave right-wing parties a large enough lead over left-wing parties that they would get a majority of seats without needing Opportunity. However, a Reid Research poll still had left-wing parties ahead, with Opportunity gaining the balance of power. The final Verian poll has the right short of a majority, with Opportunity having the balance of power.

At Sunday’s Bulgarian presidential runoff election, socialist incumbent Iliana Iotova defeated centrist former PM Andrey Gyurov by 57.6—39.5 with 3.0% for none of the above. The Bulgarian presidency is mostly a symbolic office. Turnout was just 28.6%.

Six federal Canadian by-elections have been called for December 7. The centre-left governing Liberals will be defending two seats, the Conservatives two, the left-wing NDP one and the separatist Quebec Bloc one.

YouGov: Labor 25, One Nation 27, Coalition 23 (open thread)

Angus Taylor records his first ever lead over Anthony Albanese on preferred prime minister, though the Coalition continues to run third on voting intention.

The fortnightly News24 Pulse poll by YouGov records next to no change on voting intention, with Labor up a point from their nadir to 25%, One Nation steady at 27%, the Coalition steady at 23% and the Greens down one to 13%. The Labor-versus-Coalition two-party result, which is based on preference flows in 2025, remains tied; Labor’s lead over One Nation, which is based on respondent-allocated preferences, widens from 54-46 to 53-47. The poll is distinctive in being first to show Anthony Albanese trailing Angus Taylor on preferred prime minister, Taylor’s 41-39 lead being a reversal of the result last time. Conversely, Albanese’s lead over Pauline Hanson widens from 50-42 to 51-39. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to this Tuesday from a sample of 1500.

Federal polls: Newspoll and DemosAU (open thread)

One Nation with its nose in front nationally in one poll, level in another, and well ahead in Queensland in a third.

The Australian reports the regular three-weekly Newspoll has Labor down two points to 27%, putting One Nation back in the lead as they hold steady on 28%. The Coalition gains a point to 21% and the Greens are down one to 13%. Leadership ratings are little changed for Anthony Albanese (steady on 36% approval and down one on disapproval to 59%) and Angus Taylor (up one to 37% and steady on 47%), but Pauline Hanson is up four on approval to 47% and down four on disapproval to 48%, for whatever reason.

The three-way preferred prime minister question has Anthony Albanese down one to 44%, Pauline Hanson steady on 30% and Angus Taylor up one to 26%. On the conventional measure, Albanese’s lead over Taylor narrows from 44-39 to 42-40. Also featured are ratings for seven senior ministers, Penny Wong emerging strongest with high name recognition and a slight net positive result (38% satisfied, 15% neutral, 36% dissatisfied), while Jim Chalmers scores 24% satisfied, 16% neutral, 40% dissatisfied. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1200.

We also have the monthly DemosAU poll for Capital Brief, which finds the Coalition up four points to 24%, bouncing back after a four-point drop last time. Both Labor (who are down two) and One Nation (steady) on 26%, and the Greens steady on 13%. The seat estimates rate Labor unlikely to retain a majority, with a range of 64 to 77 out of 150 seats, with ranges of 37 to 56 for the Coalition, 18 to 32 for One Nation and zero to four for the Greens. Albanese’s personal ratings are 26% positive (down three), 28% neutral (up two) and 46% negative (up one); Taylor is at 27% (up four), 47% (down three) and 26% (down one); and Hanson is at 31% (down one), 24% (steady) and 45% (up one). A three-way preferred prime minister question has Albanese steady on 36%, Taylor up one to 22% and Hanson down two to 23%. Head-to-head, Albanese leads Taylor 39-36 (in from 39-35) and Hanson 43-33 (in from 45-33). The poll was conducted Friday to Monday from a sample of 1500.

Also out today from Brisbane’s Sunday Mail is a federal voting intention result from the recent DemosAU Queensland poll. This has Labor running third in the state at 23%, with One Nation on 31%, the Coalition on 24% and the Greens on 12%. The poll was conducted October 14 to 21 from a sample of 1200.

Donation drive

Time for the Poll Bludger’s bi-monthly plea for donations, which can be made through the “become a supporter” buttons at the top of the site and the bottom of each post. These posts also double as an opportunity to provide an update on what the site will have to offer over the coming months. Tuesday’s US mid-term elections have not escaped the site’s notice, but the forecast is otherwise dominated by what might be the most interesting state election to have been held in the longer-than-I-care-to-think history of the site, meaning of course the Victorian election on November 28.

To supplement the internet’s biggest and best Victorian state election guide, earlier this month I launched a seat prediction model to grapple with the question of how an election result might actually look in the unfamiliar new world into which we have been plunged by the ascendancy of One Nation. It currently has them favoured in 14 seats, but in most cases just barely – it would only take a few points’ drop from their currently projected 21.9% vote share for that to fall to almost nothing.

The model currently works by estimating three-party vote shares between Labor, the Coalition and One Nation, and accommodates the Greens only to the extent of replacing Labor with them in the four seats they won in 2022. However, I’ve been working on extending its basic principles to a four-party model, and am holding off launching it largely because of a wild card remaining in the deck, namely Liberal Party preferences. The Liberals had Labor rather than the Greens last on their how-to-vote cards in 2022, which was atypical of their recent practice. This had a lot to do with their near-successes in Preston, Pascoe Vale and Footscray, and I don’t think the Greens’ chances in such seats can be usefully estimated until it’s known if this will happen again.

On the big day itself and beyond, this site will as usual feature its now finely honed live results feature. I am currently experimenting with moving this into an exciting new dimension by having it project results not just for individual seats, but the election in totality. Specifically, this will involve estimating the probability of each of the main parties winning a parliamentary majority, or there being a hung parliament where none of them look like doing so. However, I’m not yet clear that this will be in working order in time for the Victorian election.

US mid-terms minus one week

Your fair-and-balanced guide to next week’s mid-term elections, in which the Democrats are strongly favoured in the House and a fair shot in the Senate as well.

I don’t particularly claim to be an authority on US politics, so what follows is anything but a definitive guide. If nothing else though, writing it has been a useful way to get my own thoughts in order concerning next Tuesday’s mid-term elections, for which we should start to see results around noon on Wednesday, Sydney and Melbourne time.

In the House of Representatives, Nate Silver’s poll tracker has the Democrats leading on the “generic ballot” measure by 51.0% to 42.2%, while Patrick Ruffini’s model projects to a Democratic majority of 233 to 202. This is reflected in prediction markets, with Polymarket putting the probability of a Democratic majority at 91%.

Ruffini’s model is packaged for subscribers into a nifty “Swingometer” feature that the user can adjust in various ways. Much like the Mackerras pendulums familiar to election watchers in Australia, Ruffini’s model lists seats from bluest to reddest, taking into account the changes in nine states whose maps have been redrawn. This is based on vote share in the presidential rather than House election, producing base party vote shares on an apples-to-apples basis.

In all of the analysis that follows, I am citing Ruffini’s party vote estimates off the 2024 baseline, in which the Republicans had an overall advantage of 1.5% (reflecting Donald Trump’s 49.8% to 48.3% win over Kamala Harris on the popular vote), with all the incumbency and other adjustments Swingometer allows for set at zero. On this scenario, the Republicans win 234-201 — a gain of 14 seats on their actual result in 2024. Ten of the 14 can be put down to redistricting, but four represent the net effect of turning off incumbency advantages.

Moving the needle 1.5% to the right for a result of 50-50 reduces the Republican advantage only as far as 228 to 207. To get to the point marked on Mackerras pendulums as “swing required for majority”, the Democrats need to be winning the vote by 53.2-46.8. Under my no-frills settings, the 8.2% Democratic advantage calculated by Ruffini gets the Democrats to 230-205, which isn’t much different from the 233-202 Ruffini gets after pricing in candidate-related adjustments.

The effects of gerrymandering are evident in the relative paucity of Republican seats to be found between “EVEN” and 9% on the right side of the pendulum. Of the six states where maps have been redrawn by Republican-controlled legislatures, the Democrats need swings of more than 10% to gain any of the 30 notionally Republican seats in Texas; 9.2% to gain any out of 23 in Florida; 9.6% to gain any out of 11 in North Carolina; and they stand no chance of gains in Louisiana, Alabama or Tennessee.

Once the swings hit double-digits, gerrymandering starts to backfire: the process involves a party cutting its margins in strong seats to shore it up elsewhere, leaving few truly safe seats to fall back on when the wave becomes tidal. The Republicans have three seats in the 10% to 11% range in Texas; six between 10% and 15% in Florida; and four between 9% and 14% in North Carolina. The Democrats’ retaliatory gerrymander in California, endorsed by that state’s voters at a referendum, locks up Republican support in four of the state’s 52 districts with margins of between 12.6% and 33.0% (plus one Republican marginal at 1.9%), whereas eight seats have notional Democratic margins in single-digits.

Then there is the Senate, which must be reckoned on a case-by-case basis. Senators serve six-year terms over a staggered cycle in which a third are up for election every two years, with two-thirds of the states electing one of their two Senators at any given election. To this are added special elections for seats that have been warmed by placeholders since J.D. Vance resigned his Ohio seat to become Donald Trump’s running mate and Marco Rubio abandoned his seat in Florida to become Secretary of State.

Of the seats not up for election, 32 are held by Democrats, 31 by Republicans and two by independents – the latter caucus with the Democrats, but are balanced somewhat by the maverick tendencies of Pennsylvania Democrat John Fetterman. There is also the possibility, rated at 29% by Polymarket, that Republican incumbent Pete Ricketts will be unseated in Nebraska by Dan Osborn, an independent who says he will not caucus with either party.

The Democrats broadly defined can thus get to 50-50 if they win 16 of the 35 seats up for election, though the Vice-President’s casting vote means parity would little avail them. Seventeen will be required for an effective majority, and 18 for one that is Fetterman-proof. The presumption for most of the past two years has been that this task would be beyond them, as 22 of the 35 seats up for election are Republican-held. However, such has been the decline in the electoral standing of the President and his party that Polymarket now rates the Democrats a 63% chance of pulling it off.

The nine Democratic incumbents seeking re-election are presumably safe, as are the candidates seeking to succeed retiring members in Illinois, Minnesota and New Hampshire. However, the adventurous choice of Abdul El-Sayed to succeed Gary Peters means Michigan requires keeping an eye on, with Polymarket rating El-Sayed’s chances at 69%. The key Republican-held seats are as follows:

Page 1 of 619

1 2 … 619 Next »