US California jungle primary live

Two Democrats and one Republican seek to win two runoff spots in California’s gubernatorial primary. Also: can Andy Burnham win the UK Makerfield by-election to become an MP?

Live Commentary

3:18pm The California results now are unlikely to change until we get a large amount of late counting. So I’ll adjourn this live blog for now.

2:50pm Dems may miss an opportunity to gain the 40th federal district. Two Rep incumbents were drawn into this one district by gerrymandering. With 46% in, Rep Calvert has 35.5%, Rep Kim 20.4%. The remaining vote is nearly all Dems, but the lead Dem has 16.4%. On current counting, this will be a Rep vs Rep general election.

2:26pm For Los Angeles mayor, with 47% in, incumbent Karen Bass has 36.6%, right-wing challenger Spencer Pratt 30.0% and left-wing challenger Nithya Raman 20.3%. Even if Raman beats Pratt on late counting, Bass should win the general easily.

2:16pm For California governor, with nearly all counties reporting and 47% counted overall, it’s 26.7% Rep Hilton, 25.9% Dem Becerra, 19.7% Dem Steyer and 11.2% Rep Bianco. Steyer needs a big shift from late counting to make the top two, otherwise it will be Becerra vs Hilton in the general.

2:03pm In California 1, with 47% in (results from all counties in this district), Rep Gallagher has 61.3%. Reps overall lead Dems here by 62.5-36.6. On current counting, that’s a small swing to Reps from the 2024 pres election here, but Dems may perform better on post-election day counting.

1:31pm In the California 1 special, with 36% in, Rep Gallagher has 59.6% and is likely to win an overall majority avoiding a runoff in two months.

1:28pm Los Angeles county has reported. With 31% overall in, 27.0% Becerra, 25.6% Hilton, 20.2% Steyer and 9.8% Bianco. The top two qualify for the November general election.

1:23pm With 17% in, 28.9% Hilton, 25.0% Becerra, 18.2% Steyer and 11.7% for Rep Bianco. Nothing yet from Los Angeles.

1:14pm With an estimated 6% in for California governor, Rep Hilton leads with 27.7%, followed by Dems Becerra at 24.5% and Steyer at 17.3%. Urban centres are not yet included.

11:07am Early mail votes will be released soon after polls close in California at 1pm. Votes cast on election day will report later today, but that will only take the California count to about half complete. The New York Times suggests it will take ten days for the count to be 95% complete.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Polls close at 1pm AEST today for California’s jungle primary. At a jungle primary all candidates compete together, and the top two, regardless of party, advance to the November general election.

The main interest will be the California gubernatorial primary. In April it was plausible that Republicans Hilton and Bianco could both advance. But Democrats Becerra and Steyer have both surged in the polls. The Fiftyplusone aggregate has Hilton at 22.2%, Becerra 21.6%, Steyer 19.4% and Bianco well behind with 11.6%. At least one Democrat will advance, avoiding a strongly Democratic state having an all-Republican gubernatorial general election.

Other contests in California will use the same system. If two Democrats or two Republicans advance to the runoff in a competitive seat, that’s a disaster for the opposite party. The first round of a special election in California’s first federal seat will also be today, with a runoff on August 4 if nobody wins a majority, after the Republican incumbent died in January.

At the 2024 presidential election, California’s first voted for Donald Trump by 61.1-36.1 over Kamala Harris, a 24.9-point margin. This seat has been gerrymandered to favour Democrats, with the new lines giving Harris a 12.2-point margin, but these lines won’t apply to the special election. Two Republicans and two Democrats are standing, with Republican Gallagher likely to dominate the Republican vote and win an outright majority.

Republicans currently hold a 218-212 majority in the House of Representatives with four other vacancies. The jungle primary for Democrat Swalwell’s California 14 is on June 16 with a runoff if needed on August 18 after Swalwell resigned in April. A jungle primary will occur in Georgia 13 on July 28 with a runoff if needed on August 25 after the Democratic incumbent died in April.

I wrote for The Conversation on May 15 about two recent court decisions that will result in the federal House map for the 2026 midterm elections favouring Republicans. On April 30, the US Supreme Court allowed southern states to axe their Black seats and on May 8 the Virginia Supreme Court rejected a Democratic 10-1 gerrymander of Virginia’s 11 House seats, despite this gerrymander passing at a referendum.

As a result of these decisions, Democrats need to win the House popular vote by at least four points to have a good chance to win a House majority at November’s midterm elections. In Nate Silver’s aggregate of generic ballot polls, Democrats lead Republicans by 48.6-41.6, a 7.0-point margin. That’s the biggest lead for Democrats this cycle. Trump’s net approval in Silver’s aggregate has improved slightly to -19.0 from a low of -20.2 on May 19.

Democrats need four gains to control the Senate. On national polling, North Carolina and Maine should be gains while other Republican-held states need at least a double-digit Democratic margin to fall. Controversial Democratic and Republican nominees in Maine and Texas respectively could make Maine harder for Democrats and Texas easier.

UK: Can Andy Burnham win the Makerfield by-election?

After dire results for Labour at the May 7 Welsh and Scottish parliamentary elections and English local elections, there has been renewed pressure on PM Keir Starmer’s Labour leadership. Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is seen as the most likely challenger to Starmer, but he needs a seat in the House of Commons first.

On May 14, Labour MP Josh Simons resigned Makerfield to allow Burnham to become an MP if he wins the June 18 by-election. Starmer didn’t attempt to block Burnham, unlike for the February Gorton and Denton by-election. At the 2024 general election, Labour defeated the populist right Reform in Makerfield by 45.2-31.8 with 10.9% for the Conservatives, 6.8% Liberal Democrats and 4.4% Greens. But at the May local elections, Reform won 50% in the eight wards within Makerfield.

A small-sample Survation poll of Makerfield in mid-May gave Burnham a 43-40 lead over Reform, with 7% for Restore (another populist right party), 4% Lib Dems, 3% Greens and 2% Conservatives. In the Election Maps UK aggregate of national polls, Reform leads with 27.7%, followed by Labour at 19.3%, the Conservatives 18.1%, the Greens 14.0%, the Lib Dems 12.3% and Restore 2.9%. The Greens have slid from a high of 15.9% in early April.

Federal polls: YouGov and Roy Morgan (open thread)

Two more pollsters find One Nation yielding the fruits of a post-budget backlash, with the Coalition sinking ever further.

The fortnightly YouGov Sky News Pulse poll joins RedBridge Group and DemoAU in recording a primary vote lead for One Nation, who have surged four points in the second such poll since the budget to 29%, with Labor down two for the second fortnight in a row, to 26%. The Coalition has more than lost the two-point gain it made in the post-budget poll, being down three to 20%, while the Greens are steady on 13%. Two-party measures have Labor leading One Nation 52.5-47.5, in from 53-47, and the Coalition 51.5-48.5, in from 52-48.

Anthony Albanese has taken a hit on his personal ratings, down three on approval to 34% and up four on disapproval to 60%. He holds a 47-41 lead over Pauline Hanson on preferred prime minister, in from 50-38, and 41-39 over Angus Taylor, in from 41-38. Forty-six per cent of all respondents said they believed the Coalition and One Nation should work together to form government with 31% opposed, breaking down to 45% and 28% among Coalition voters and 53% and 25% among One Nation voters. The poll was conducted last Tuesday through to yesterday from a sample of 1471.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has One Nation drawing level with Labor on the primary vote at 27%, with Labor down half a point and One Nation up one-and-a-half, with the Coalition down three to 20% and the Greens steady on 13.5%. Labor’s lead over One Nation on respondent-allocated two-party preferred is unchanged at 53.5-46.5; against the Coalition, Labor’s lead improves from 53-47 to 55.5-44.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, and from 52-48 to 53.5-46.5 on previous election flows. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1542.

Federal polls: RedBridge Group and Fox & Hedgehog (open thread)

One new poll finds One Nation racing to an unprecedented primary vote lead, though another doesn’t go quite so far.

A new poll from RedBridge Group/Accent Research for the Financial Review is the strongest yet for One Nation from any pollster, recording a four-point increase on last month’s result to 31%. This puts them well clear of Labor, who are down three to 28%, and particularly the Coalition, who are down two to 20%, while the Greens are down a point to 12%. Respondent-allocated two-party measures have Labor with leads of 51-49 over both One Nation and the Coalition, which are respectively in from 55-45 and 54-46 last time.

Anthony Albanese’s combined very favourable and mostly favourable rating is down five to 29%, with unfavourable and very unfavourable up five to 48%, and neither down two to 18%. Pauline Hanson is steady on 40% positive, down one to 40% negative and down one to 14% neutral. Angus Taylor is up one to 21% positive, up three to 25% negative and down four to 23% neutral. Whereas Albanese and Hanson have near total name recognition, 21% say they have never heard from Taylor, down only one on last month. Jim Chalmers’ positive rating is down five to 17% and his negative rating is up eight to 35%. A three-way preferred prime minister question has Anthony Albanese down two to 31%, Pauline Hanson up two to 25% and Angus Taylor steady on 14%. Questions on the budget have 23% rating it good for the country as a whole and 53% bad, with 11% saying it would be good for them personally and 48% bad. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1005.

Also just out is a Fox & Hedgehog poll in the News Corp tabloids, which has Labor on 29% (down a point on the last such poll in late March), One Nation on 27% (up four) and the Coalition on 25% (up two), with no result provided in the report for the Greens (UPDATE: Down three to 10%). Respondent-allocated two-party preferred results have the Coalition leading Labor 51-49, reversing the result from the last poll, and Labor leading One Nation 54-46, in from 56-44. The poll also finds 40% agreeing that Pauline Hanson and One Nation are ready for government, with 45% disagreeing. The sample for the poll was 1700, with field work dates not disclosed – hopefully more detail will be provided shortly by the pollster.

UPDATE: Full report from Fox & Hedgehog here. Angus Taylor notably holds a lead on 38-36 lead over Anthony Albanese on preferred prime minister, after Albanese led 39-35 in late March. Albanese is down one on approval to 29%, steady on 19% neutral and up two on disapproval to 51%; Taylor is up five on approval to 29%, down two on neutral to 32% and up five on disapproval to 29% (“never heard of” is down from 18% to 10%). A hypothetical question inclusive of a teal party had it on 6%, with Labor three points to lower at 26%, the Greens one point lower at 9% and the others essentially unchanged. Voluminous further questions on the budget include an overall finding of 19% favourable, 47% unfavourable and 25% neutral. Thirty-two per cent said they had seen the much-hyped social media memes on the budget tax policies, with 60% saying they had not.

Federal polls: Roy Morgan and Essential Research (open thread)

Strong support for Angus Taylor’s promises on immigration show no sign of translating into improved support for the Coalition relative to One Nation.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor down two points to 27.5%, the Coalition down one to 23%, One Nation up one to 25.5% and the Greens up two to 13.5%. Labor’s two-party lead over the Coalition on respondent-allocated preferences is in from 54-46 to 53-47. A Labor-versus-One Nation result has the former leading 53.5-46.5 – I believe we may be getting this in future instead of the Labor-versus-Coalition result based on previous election preference flows. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from 1613.

Also just out is the monthly Essential Research poll, which has Labor down a point to 29%, the Coalition down one to 23%, One Nation (who have either improved or held steady in every monthly result from this series since March last year) up three to 28% and the Greens steady on 11%, with the undecided component down a point to 4%. The pollster’s respondent-allocated 2PP+ measure, which has been weaker for Labor than other pollster’s two-party measures, has Labor in front for the first time since December, the 48-47 result (the balance being undecided) comparing with 49-47 to the Coalition last month. However, personal ratings for Anthony Albanese are his worst yet from this series, his approval down four to 37% and disapproval up three to 54%, and the regular national mood result has a two-point drop in “right direction” to 28% and a four-point increase in “wrong track” to 58%, the worst result since Labor came to power.

Twenty-five per cent expressed approval of the budget with 39% disapproving and 24% neutral, which is at the better end of comparable results in post-budget polling. As in other such polling, responses to its most contentious measures was more positive: winding back negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount on property was supported by 33% and opposed by 27%, with 26% neutral; and tax changes on shares and investments were supported by 32% and opposed by 29%, with 26% neutral. However, only 26% supported the changes on trusts, with 38% opposed. Twenty-eight per cent thought the housing system would be more fair for young people, 30% thought less fair and 22% felt it would make no difference.

The immigration policies announced by Angus Taylor in his budget reply speech found strong support, with 58% in favour of capping immigration to the number of new house builds and 14% opposing, and 57% in favour of limiting welfare to Australian citizens, with 19% opposed. The report in The Guardian relates that the sample size was 1027; it was conducted, I assume, from last Wednesday to this Monday. The full report should be on the pollster’s website later today.

Federal polling: RedBridge Group MRP and DemosAU (open thread)

Two poll findings point to a struggle for Labor to maintain a majority, one being a major seat-modelling exercise conducted before the budget.

A RedBridge Group/Accent Research MRP poll for the Financial Review, based on 6015 responses from April 29 to May 14, has a median seat prediction of 76 seats for Labor, 53 for One Nation, 12 for the Coalition (ten for Liberal, two for Country Liberal – which is to say they are forecast to gain the two Northern Territory seats for Labor), eight for independents, one for Bob Katter and none for the Greens. The first preferences numbers this is based on are Labor 31%, One Nation 28%, Coalition 21% and Greens 11% – a more current field work period would presumably have produced a worse result for Labor. For those new to the multi-level regression with post-stratification concept, the Financial Review explains it “analyses how traits such as age, gender and religion estimate opinions nationwide … then takes those insights and combines them with census data to reconstruct a picture of the area”.

Sixty-two seats out of 150 are rated a better than even chance of changing hands based on the poll’s numbers, which have One Nation gaining all 16 Coalition-held seats in Queensland, all nine of the Nationals’ other seats, 12 seats from the non-Queensland Liberals (mostly regional, but also including urban fringe seats of Lindsay, La Trobe, Casey and Canning) and 16 seats from Labor (nearly all their regional seats, several on metropolitan fringes and two in northern Brisbane). Labor are projected to gain Ryan, Fowler and Mayo from the cross-bench, and Liberal to gain three seats in Melbourne from Labor and Bradfield from teal independent Nicolette Boele.

There is also a conventional federal poll from DemosAU that matches the pollster’s previous result from last month as Labor’s worst since the election, with Labor steady on 26%, the Coalition steady on 23%, the Greens steady on 13% and One Nation up two to 28% – the first primary vote lead recorded by the latter in a regular polling series. The pollster provides a seat projection based on the results that has Labor within a range of 65 to 74, falling short of a majority even at the top end, with One Nation from 47 to 58, the Coalition from 16 to 28, the Greens from one to five and others from two to six.

Respondents were also asked how they would vote if Pauline Hanson retired, it being noted that she is 71, with results of Labor 28%, Coalition 27%, One Nation 21% and Greens 14%. A three-way preferred prime minister result has Anthony Albanese down a point to 34%, Pauline Hanson up three to 27% and Angus Taylor up one to 23%. Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings are up one on positive to 27%, up one on negative to 47%, with 26% neutral; Angus Taylor is up three on positive to 28%, and down one negative to 27%, with neutral at 47%; and Pauline Hanson is up five to 39%, and down three to 36%, with 25% neutral.

The budget was rated generally bad by 43% and generally good by 23%, with 27% agreeing and 36% disagreeing it would make Australia fairer; 28% agreeing and 39% disagreeing it would help long-term housing affordability; 44% agreeing and 17% disagreeing the tax changes would hurt the economy; and 53% agreeing and 16% disagreeing they would make life harder for the average Australian. Nonetheless, 34% approved of the negative gearing measures with 29% disapproving, 28% approved and 29% disapproved of the capital gains tax discount changes, and 27% approved and 34% disapproved of the maximum 30% tax rate on income from trusts. The poll was conducted last Friday to Wednesday from a sample of 1502. Extensive breakdowns are available in the full report.

Resolve Strategic: Labor 32, Coalition 26, One Nation 22, Greens 10 in New South Wales

NSW Labor regains a few points in the Resolve Strategic series, in the second state poll since the One Nation shockwave first registered. Also featured: extensive preselection news.

The Sydney Morning Herald reports the regular bi-monthly Resolve Strategic result on New South Wales state voting intention (available in the print edition, but not yet online that I can see) has Labor up three points to 32%, the Coalition up one to 26%, One Nation down one to 22% and the Greens steady on 10%. Chris Minns holds a 38-18 lead over Kellie Sloane on preferred premier, little changed from the previous result of 38-17. The poll was compiled from New South Wales responses out of the pollster’s last two national surveys, with an overall sample of 1000.

We’re now well inside a year out from the next election, and preselection news is starting to accumulate:

• Lachlan Leeming of The Australian reports that Mark Buttigieg is likely to lose his position on Labor’s Legislative Council ticket to Unions NSW secretary Mark Morey, having lost favour with the Right after the Electrical Trades Union detached itself from the faction. Buttigieg was the last of the seven members elected from the Labor ticket in 2019. Another Right faction MLC, Greg Donnelly, is “mooted by some colleagues as likely to retire”, but his position is in the domain of the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association. Left faction MLC Peter Primrose is also expected to retire, his likely successor being Asren Pugh, “a former councillor at Byron Shire who is set to benefit from the Left’s rules that one of their candidates be from regional NSW”. The report further says the male dominance of the ticket could put pressure on male MPs in the lower house.

• The Nationals upper house preselection in March returned the party’s three incumbents, Sarah Mitchell, Nichole Overall and Wes Fang, to the second, fifth and eighth positions mandated to the party on the joint Coalition ticket. However, the eighth position seems a highly dubious prospect in the current electoral environment, such that the result raises doubts about the future of Fang, who has a strong social media following and support base on the right. The Daily Telegraph’s The Sauce column reports Fang may have been the victim of a lack of tactical adroitness by Young Nationals members whose enthusiasm for unsuccessful newcomer Angus Webber helped Overall take the fifth position at Fang’s expense. It further reports “strong rumours” that Fang is considering defecting to One Nation, noting he is “old friends” with Barnaby Joyce and has “removed Nationals branding from some of his social media posts”. Former Nationals leader and Bathurst MP Paul Toole has also confirmed being approached by One Nation.

• In a review article on One Nation in the Sydney Morning Herald in late March, “political strategists” identified a threat to the Nationals in seven of their 11 seats — Upper Hunter, Tamworth, Dubbo, Bathurst, Oxley, Coffs Harbour and Clarence — together with Liberal-held Goulburn. Conservative vote-splitting — a particularly live issue under New South Wales’ system of optional preferential voting — “may even lead to Labor picking up more metro seats”. The most vulnerable Labor-held seats are said to be Cessnock, Camden and Penrith. Lachlan Leeming of The Australian reports One Nation’s upper house ticket is likely to be led by Stuart Bonds, who has twice achieved strong results in the federal seat for Hunter.

• Michael McGowan of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Sue Higginson, who filled David Shoebridge’s vacancy when he was elected to the Senate in 2022, will lead the Greens’ upper house ticket at the next election. Higginson won 51% from a party membership vote held last month, ahead of 24% for the other incumbent seeking re-election, Abigail Boyd, who retains the second position from which she was elected in 2019.

• Mark Hodges, first-term Liberal member for Castle Hill, lost a preselection vote in late February to The Hills Shire mayor Peter Gangemi. Linda Silmalis of the Sunday Telegraph reports Hodges was eliminated in the first round, with Gangemi prevailing in the second over fellow factional conservative Thomas Ryan, senior manager of polling firm Freshwater Strategy. A conservative factional source links Hodges’ defeat to the weakening of the centre right faction and its figurehead, federal Mitchell MP Alex Hawke.

• Former deputy police commissioner Mick Willing has been preselected as the Liberal candidate for Camden, which Sally Quinnell gained for Labor in 2023 (and which, as noted, is a potential target for One Nation). Wendy Lindsay will seek a comeback in East Hills, which she held from 2019 until Kylie Wilkinson gained it for Labor in 2023. Lindsay has served Revesby ward on Canterbury-Bankstown City Council since 2024.

• Linda Silmalis of the Sunday Telegraph reports Phil Longley, whose father Jim Longley held the seat from 1986 to 1996, has “apparently nominated” for Liberal preselection in Pittwater. Longley is director of government relations at the Workers Insurance Association of New South Wales and a former policy adviser to Jason Falinski, the then federal member for Mackellar. His sister, Claire Longley, ran for preselection in the seat before the last election but was defeated by Rory Amon, an outcome that was criticised by then deputy Liberal leader Matt Kean. Independent Jacqui Scruby fell narrowly short of defeating Amon at the election, then gained the seat at the by-election held in October 2024 after Amon was charged with child sex offences.

• Tamara Smith, who has held the Byron Bay area seat of Ballina for the Greens since 2015, has announced she will not contest the next election.

Post-budget polling part two (open thread)

Further indications that the reaction to the budget has cost Labor a point or two on the primary vote.

Two further additions to the post-election budget polling pile (perhaps shortly to be joined by Essential Research). The fortnightly Sky News Pulse poll by YouGov finds Labor down two points to 28%, the Coalition up two to 23%, One Nation up one to 25% and the Greens down one to 13%. Labor has two-party leads of 52-48 against the Coalition and 53-47 against One Nation, which are in from 54-46 and 57-43 last time (the latter seemingly being an aberration, the previous result having been 54-46).

Anthony Albanese’s leads as preferred prime minister are in from 45-36 to 41-38 against Angus Taylor and from 54-35 to 50-38 against Pauline Hanson. Approval and disapproval ratings are not yet available, but we are told Anthony Albanese has gone from a net minus 14 to minus 19 (UPDATE: Albanese is down two on approval to 37% and up two on disapproval to 56%; Angus Taylor is down two to 36% and steady on 42%). The poll finds 9% expecting the budget will leave them better off and 44% worse off, with 47% for about the same. Thirty-one per cent agreed the negative gearing and capital gains tax changes would help first homebuyers, with 38% disagreeing and 31% unsure. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to Monday, from a sample of around 1500 (UPDATE: 1504, to be precise). I will have further detail later today.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor down a point to 29.5%, the Coalition down one to 24%, One Nation up two-and-a-half to 24.5% and the Greens steady on 11.5%. Labor leads 54-46 on respondent-allocated preferences, out from 53.5-46.5, and 52.5-47.5 on previous election preference flows, in from 53.5-46.5. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1668.

EMRS: Liberal 25, Labor 24, One Nation 19 and Greens 14 in Tasmania

A new poll offers an insight into what One Nation has in store for Tasmanian state politics.

The latest instalment in the occasional EMRS poll series on Tasmanian state voting intention is the second to include One Nation as a response option, and it records a five-point increase in their support to 19%, with Liberal down four to 25%, Labor up one to 24% and the Greens down one to 14%. This would seem to raise the prospect of future elections being contests between Liberal-One Nation and Labor-Greens blocs, with the present result being a moderate lead for the former.

Personal ratings for the three leaders are little changed, though Jeremy Rockliff’s 44-25 lead over Labor’s Josh Willie reverses a slump in the last poll, when it narrowed to 40-26 from 50-24 in the poll last August. Rockliff’s favourable rating is down one to 34% with unfavourable up two to 38%; Willie is down one to 21% and steady on 17%; and Greens leader Rosalie Woodruff is steady on 23% and down one to 28%. The poll was conducted last Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 1000.

This post also offers an occasion to do something I too often neglect to do, which is to follow up the results of the periodic upper house elections after election night, which produced two fairly close results. In Huon south of Hobart, independent challenger Clare Glade-Wright unseated independent incumbent Dean Harriss by a margin of 2.5%, chasing down a 30.8% to 27.4% deficit on preferences from Labor (16.7%), the Greens (15.0%) and two independents (5.4% to 4.7%). In the Launceston region seat of Rosevears, Liberal incumbent Jo Palmer’s 42.4% to 25.1% primary lead was enough to hold out against Labor’s Ben McKinnon: the 16.0% vote of independent Susan Monson appeared only moderately favourable to Labor while the Greens’ 16.4% split as Greens preferences typically do, giving Palmer enough leakage to prevail by a 2.8% margin.

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