Half measures (open thread)

A look at the dramatically declining frequency of seats being won with with majorities on first preferences.

A correspondent wrote today to inquire about the decline in seats being won on first preferences, and having gone to the trouble of amassing the relevant data going back to 1993, I thought it worth a chart and a blog post. If it had gone back as far as 1975, we would have found 103 out of 127 seats “going to preferences”, which then served as shorthand to denote a close result, around half of them “three-cornered contests”, which persists as a term to describe seats contested by both the Nationals and the Liberals.

Within the period covered by the chart, we find an interruption in 1998 and 2001 from the first age of One Nation, notably hitting the Coalition a lot harder than Labor; then an apparent resumption of normal service followed by a steady decline through to 2022, by which time Labor’s decade-long reliance on Greens preferences in nearly all of its seats is supplemented by teal independents and a proliferation of predators upon Coalition vote share on the right, including but not exclusive to the return of One Nation.

The eleven seats won on first preferences at this month’s election were, for Labor, Chifley, Kingston, Grayndler, Greenway, Fenner, Sydney, Kingsford Smith and Oxley; for the Nationals, Maranoa, Gippsland and New England; and for the Liberals, bupkis. Interestingly, there are two among the Labor list that haven’t historically been reckoned safe seats: Greenway, which Michelle Rowland has held for Labor since a redistribution-assisted win from the Liberals in 2010, consolidating with consecutive swings of 8.7% in 2022 and 4.7% a fortnight ago; and Kingston, which Amanda Rishworth has turned into a safe seat since gaining it from the Liberals in 2007, despite redistributions in aggregate having done her more harm than good.

Please note the other posts since the last open thread:

• A guest post from Adrian Beaumont on elections in Romania, Portugal, the United Kingdom, Albania, Canada and South Korea.

• A post on Tasmania covering a new state poll and elections this weekend for three seats in the state’s Legislative Council.

• A progressively updated thread on late counting, mainly relevant now to Calwell and Bradfield.

• An analysis of the Senate result, which remains about a fortnight away from resolution.

European elections wrap

A pro-Western centrist wins the Romanian presidential runoff, but the left performs dismally in Portugal. Also: Canadian recounts and South Korean polls ahead of the June 3 election.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

On Sunday European elections were held in Romania, Portugal and Poland. At the Romanian presidential runoff election, the pro-Western centrist Nicușor Dan, who is a mathematician and the current mayor of Bucharest, defeated the far-right George Simion by a 53.6-46.4 margin. Dan had qualified for the runoff with 21.0% in the May 4 first round, edging out another pro-Western candidate who won 20.1%, while Simion dominated with 41.0%. This election was rerun after the first election in December was annulled by the courts owing to concerns about Russian influence.

Portugal used proportional representation by region to elect its 230 MPs. Four seats are reserved for expatriate Portuguese and won’t be decided until later. This was a snap election called after the conservative AD lost a confidence vote. The AD won 89 seats (up nine since the March 2024 election), the centre-left Socialists 58 (down 20), the far-right Chega 58 (up eight), the economically right Liberal Initiative nine (up one) and the Greens six (up two). This was the Socialists’ worst seat share since 1987.

Sunday was the first round of the Polish presidential election, with the runoff on June 1. Rafał Trzaskowski, the candidate of the centrist and pro-Western Civic Coalition, won 31.4%, followed by Karol Nawrocki, the candidate of the economically left but socially conservative Law and Justice (PiS) on 29.5% and the far-right Confederation on 14.8%. In runoff polling, Trzaskowski led in a first round exit poll by 47-38 with 15% undecided, and he has led in most runoff polls. A win for Trzaskowski would give the Civic Coalition and its allies, who have a parliamentary majority, control of government, with PiS currently holding the presidency.

In case you missed it (I posted this on the day of the Australian election), I had a results wrap of the May 1 UK local elections. The far-right Reform won 30% of the BBC’s Projected National Share, with Labour on 20%, the Liberal Democrats on 17% and the Conservatives on 15%. Since these elections, Reform has surged in national polls. In the Election Maps UK poll aggregate, Reform now has 29.1%, Labour 23.3%, the Conservatives 18.6%, the Lib Dems 14.2% and the Greens 8.9%.

The 140 Albanian parliamentary seats were elected using PR at the May 11 election. The governing Socialists won a fourth successive term, with 83 seats (up nine since 2021), the conservative Democrats won 50 seats (down 13) and others seven (up four). The election was marred by widespread misuse of public resources and institutional power by the Socialists.

Canada and South Korea

In my May 1 wrap of the April 28 Canadian federal election, I said the centre-left Liberals won 169 of the 343 seats, the Conservatives 144, the separatist left-wing Quebec Bloc (BQ) 22, the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) seven and the Greens one. It appears that rechecking put the Liberals ahead in a seat the Conservatives led, and the BQ ahead in a seat the Liberals led.

However, a recount in the BQ-led seat reversed the result, with the Liberals winning by just one vote, overturning a 44-vote BQ lead. A recount in a seat the Liberals won narrowly against the Conservatives confirmed the initial result. Results of two recounts are still pending, one with a narrow Liberal margin over the Conservatives and the other with a narrow Conservative margin over the Liberals. If remaining recounts confirm the initial results, the overall seat totals will be 170 Liberals, 143 Conservatives, 22 BQ, seven NDP and one Green, putting the Liberals two seats short of a majority.

The South Korean presidential election will be held on June 3, about two years earlier than scheduled after the previous president of the right-wing People Power Party (PPP) was impeached then removed from office. The president is elected by first past the post. Polls have the centre-left Democratic nominee, Lee Jae-myung, leading PPP’s Kim Moon-soo by between seven and 22 points. Democrats have a large parliamentary majority, so a win for Lee would give them control of government until the next parliamentary elections in 2028.

Tasmania: EMRS poll and Legislative Council elections

Further bad news for Tasmania’s long-ascendant Liberals ahead of Saturday’s upper house elections.

A fortnight after losing both their federal seats, the quarterly EMRS poll records Tasmania’s Liberals with their lowest state primary vote since 2009, down five points on the last poll to 29% with Labor up one to 31%, the Greens up one to 14%, the Jacqui Lambie Network down two to 6% and independents up five to 17%. The report further relates that the Liberals have fallen ten points in the north-west of the state to 34%, eight points in the north-east to 30%, and two points in the south to 26%. Jeremy Rockliff’s favourability rating, meaning the number rating him from seven to ten on a ten-point scale minus the number rating him zero to three, is down four points to 6%, while Dean Winter is down one to 5%. In spite of everything, Rockliff nonetheless widens his lead as preferred premier from 44-34 to 44-32. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1000.

All of which may or may not have some bearing on Saturday’s periodic Legislative Council elections, this year encompassing three of the seats that make up the state’s 15-member upper chamber. These are normally held on the first Saturday of May, but were delayed on this occasion to prevent a clash with the federal election. The current numbers in the chamber are Liberal four, Labor three, Greens one, independents seven – the seats up for election feature one held by Liberal, one by Labor and one by an independent.

Montgomery. Encompassing part of Burnie and the coast immediately to its east, including Penguin and Ulverstone, Montgomery will be vacated with the retirement of Leonie Hiscutt, who has held it for the Liberals since 2013. Hiscutt was re-elected in 2019 with a 10.2% margin over Labor, who are not contesting this time. The new Liberal candidate is Stephen Parry, who served in the Senate from 2005 to 2017, when a dual British citizenship caused him to fall foul of the Section 44 crisis. Parry’s task is complicated by the fact that Hiscutt is supporting the independent candidacy of her son, Casey Hiscutt. Also in the field are Darren Briggs of the Greens, who was the party’s lead candidate in Braddon at last year’s state election; Gatty Burnett, an independent who likewise ran in Braddon last year, making little impression; and Adrian Pickin of Shooters Fishers and Farmers.

Pembroke. Covering the eastern shore of Hobart’s Derwent river directly opposite the city centre, Pembroke will be defended by Luke Edmunds, who retained it for Labor at a by-election in September 2022 following the resignation of Jo Siejka. Edmunds is being challenged by two former parliamentarians, one being Allison Ritchie, who held the seat for Labor from 2001 until retiring due to ill health in 2009, and has lately served as deputy mayor of Clarence. The seat was then held for the Liberals until 2017 by the late Vanessa Goodwin, whom Ritchie challenged unsuccessfully as an independent in 2013. Also running as an independent is Tony Mulder, who held Rumney from 2011 to 2017 and ran in Franklin as a Liberal candidate in 2011 and an independent in 2024. Also in the field are Carly Allen of the Greens and Steve Loring of Shooters Fishers and Farmers.

Nelson. Independent Meg Webb is seeking re-election after emerging the winner from a field of ten in 2019 following the retirement of Jim Wilkinson, who had held it as an independent since 1995. She faces opposition from Marcus Vermey of the Liberals and Nathan Volf of the Greens. The seat covers Hobart’s riverside southern suburbs around Sandy Bay and the satellite town of Kingston.

Late counting: week three

Resolutions imminent for the remaining outstanding lower house seats, which likely just means Bradfield and Calwell.

Click here for full display of House of Representatives election results.

Wednesday

Calwell proceeded today through to the eighth count, leaving a remaining field of Labor, Liberal, the Greens and three independents. Carly Moore’s lead over the other independents has widened, and seems likely to be maintained through the imminent exclusions of the Greens and two other independents, together with the elimination of the current 18.5% to 16.4% gap between the Liberal candidate and Moore. Between now and the final count, Moore would need two-thirds of the preferences to overtake Labor.

Today’s preference distributions added 15 to the informal counts in both Bradfield and Goldstein, respectively cutting Nicolette Boele’s lead by four to 41 and increasing Tim Wilson’s lead by one to 129.

Tuesday

End of counting. We’re now six counts into Calwell, with another six exclusions to come. Candidates accounting for 9.1% of the primary vote have now been excluded, with results that probably don’t tell us all that much. Next out will be Legalise Cannabis and One Nation, who will perhaps go relatively heavily to established parties rather than independents, followed by Sam Moslih, whose how-to-vote card had Labor higher than the remaining independents. Most likely, the issue will then be whether preferences from Joseph Youhana, the Greens and the Liberals favour Moore enough to get her ahead of Abdo.

Revisions arising from the preference distribution in Bradfield today have added 11 to the informal vote tally, costing Gisele Kapterian eight votes and Nicolette Boele two, increasing the latter’s lead from 39 to 45.

5pm. The Goldstein count has ended with Tim Wilson up by 128 votes. The AEC relates that the votes still in the system as awaiting processing have Senate ballot papers only. The preference distribution will now proceed, to be followed only by an automatic recount if the margin comes in below 100, though the discretion remains to conduct one even if it doesn’t. Arguments have been made that the population has increased since the 100-vote threshold was established about 15 years ago.

2.30pm. The Australian Electoral Commission will helpfully be publishing updates from Calwell in the form of progress preference distribution results that will presumably be updated with each exclusion. These are a bit hard to read, so I offer the following summary below, showing us up to count four out of twelve. This looks promising for independent Carly Moore with respect to her prospects of making the final count, with 21.5% of the preferences from the first three exclusions having gone to her. However, the marginal nature of the candidates excluded so far is such that these figures are unlikely to offer much insight as to whether Labor will receive enough preferences to get from their 30.5% primary vote to 50% at the final count. If it is Moore who comes second, she will need about two-third of preferences (and Labor one-third) from all other candidates.

Monday

The last batches of votes in Bradfield kept true to the contest’s epic form, with independent Nicolette Boele taking the lead at the last to end the scrutiny 39 votes ahead. But it doesn’t end there: the formal distribution of preferences will proceed throughout this week, almost certainly to be followed by the recount that proceeds automatically when the margin is inside 100 votes, so Liberal candidate Gisele Kapterian has at least some hope that proceedings turn up errors substantial enough to reverse the result. Kapterian began the day 43 votes ahead, then moved to 50 ahead when absents broke 29-22 her way. Boele’s breakthrough came when postals broke fully 125-56 her way, consolidated when declaration pre-polls favoured her 111-90.

A recent recount precedent missing from yesterday’s summary was Clive Palmer’s win in Fairfax in 2013: at 36, his margin on the indicative two-candidate count was very close to Boele’s, but it was reduced to seven during the preference distribution and then inflated to 53 on the recount. An informed source in comments notes that recounts have become less prone to produce changes since the initial recheck became a routine part of the procedure in 1984, and court rulings established legal precedents about formality, most notably in relation to the seat of McEwen in 2007.

In Goldstein, Tim Wilson’s lead is down from 254 to 206 after postals broke 94-60 and absents 76-62 to Zoe Daniel. The AEC records 332 envelopes awaiting processing, of which Daniel would need two-thirds to land in her column to get to automatic recount territory.

Sunday

With the deadline for the arrival of late postals having passed on Friday, there are two seats that can still be regarded as in doubt, barring extraordinary late developments. One is Bradfield, where today’s counting will account for 260 declaration pre-polls, 104 postals and 66 absents (UPDATE: Outstanding postals revised up to 191). Some of these will be deemed invalid and a handful will be informal, but as many as 380 will be added to a tally on which independent Nicolette Boele trails Liberal candidate Gisele Kapterian by 43 votes.

The counting of these votes will be followed immediately by a full distribution of preferences. Should the margin land inside 100, as seems extremely likely, this will be followed by an automatic recount. A review conducted for the Australian Electoral Commission in 2014 helpfully reviews the history of recounts, which provides at least some level of information on how much the dial was moved by 11 recounts going back to 1958 (see pages 24 and the very last page). A recount for Bass in 1998 was something of an outlier in increasing Labor’s winning margin from 16 to 78. Including the one recount conducted since – for Herbert in 2016, which increased Labor’s margin from 8 to 35 – a typical recount seems to make about 20 votes’ difference to the final result.

A recount would seem to be the only remaining chance for Zoe Daniel in Goldstein, who trails Liberal candidate Tim Wilson by 206 votes with 332 remaining to be processed: 172 declaration pre-polls, 100 postals and 39 absents, plus 21 provisionals that may all be disallowed. Even getting to the 100-vote threshold requires stretching the arithmetic here, but the returning officer can use their discretion to require a recount even if the threshold isn’t reached.

The other unknown is the seat of Calwell, which I have not been making the effort to follow on a blow-by-blow basis, since the point at issue is that there’s no way of knowing which out of as many as four candidates will make the final count along with Labor. The only thing that can be said for sure is that Labor win the seat if it’s the Liberal candidate, but it’s quite a bit more likely to be an independent. Such questions can only be answered by a full distribution of preferences. With only 154 votes remaining to be processed, this will presumably begin later today.

Then there’s the Senate, where the pressing of the button on the final results is still as much as a fortnight away. I have a post below with my latest updated assessments on how that is likely to play out.

Senate counting: week three

A second attempt to model the Senate outcome, with some finer points concerning the composition of the cross-bench chiefly at issue.

I have conducted a repeat of the exercise from my previous post on the Senate results, which involved taking random samples of the ballot papers from the 2022 election, weighting them to match the various players’ shares of the first preference vote at this election, and simulating preference distributions in which flows behave as they did in 2022. This is a simplified approximation of the process, so what might be referred to below as “Count 72” would be a lot higher by the AEC’s reckoning, but more than adequate for current purposes.

There are two important differences from the first run, the most obvious being that it’s based off a more advanced stage of the count. The other is that I have factored in changes in how-to-vote cards at this election, at least for the major parties (minor party how-to-vote cards are rarely followed, and changes unlikely to amount to much when considered in aggregate). This was mainly deemed necessary because the Coalition was a lot more amenable to One Nation than in the past, although the (electoral) significance of this should not be overstated — impacts are trivial where Liberal candidates are elected with only small surpluses, as is invariably the case when they themselves are elected off the preferences of other parties, and non-existent when they remain to the final count. The former applies in New South Wales and South Australia, where the Coalition will respectively win two seats from a shade over and a shade under two quotas on first preferences, and the latter applies in Tasmania.

My overall assessment is unchanged, the modelled result being Labor 30, Coalition 27, Greens 11 and One Nation two, plus Ralph Babet, Jacqui Lambie, Tammy Tyrell, Lidia Thorpe, Fatima Payman and David Pocock. However, the already live possibility of One Nation taking Labor’s third seat in Western Australia now looks stronger. I don’t believe the boost to One Nation from Coalition preferences puts them in serious contention in Victoria, and it affects only the size of their winning margin in Queensland. Nor do I think it likely that Jacqui Lambie will lose her seat, notwithstanding The Australian’s contention yesterday that her “folly” in attacking Tasmania’s salmon farming industry “may cost her political career”.

New South Wales

Count 1 Quotas Swing Count 72 Count 73
ALP 37.77% 2.644 +7.34% 0.803 0.892
LNC 29.63% 2.074 -7.09%
GRN 11.16% 0.781 -0.30% 0.973 1.068
ON 6.03% 0.422 +1.91% 0.692 0.780
LC 3.39% 0.237 +0.78% 0.379

My earlier projection here of three Labor, two Coalition and one Greens doesn’t seem to be in doubt. Since the Coalition scrapes over the line for a second quota on primary votes, what happens with their preferences matters little — where previously I had Labor winning the last seat ahead of One Nation by 0.938 quotas to 0.771, I now have it at 0.892 to 0.780, and I expect most of the change is due to shifts in party vote shares over the past week.

Victoria

Count 1 Quotas Swing Count 73 Count 74 Count 75 Count 76 Count 77 Count 78
ALP 34.79% 2.435 +3.34% 0.506 0.515 0.572 0.606 0.692 0.850
LNC 31.77% 2.224 -0.52% 0.292 0.293 0.308 0.342
GRN 12.31% 0.862 -1.54% 1.019
ON 4.44% 0.311 +1.53% 0.412 0.412 0.426 0.558 0.683 0.763
LC 3.56% 0.249 +0.55% 0.319 0.320 0.370 0.399 0.453
ToP 2.52% 0.176 -1.49% 0.244 0.244 0.260
AJP 1.56% 0.109 +0.04% 0.174 0.179

After the election of two Labor, two Coalition and one Greens, I now have the third Labor candidate’s lead over One Nation at 0.850 to 0.763 with the amendment of Coalition votes that followed the card, as compared with 0.740 to 0.608 in the first run. One Nation now gains 0.125 when the Liberal is excluded, compared with 0.060 previously. However, Labor has gained nearly as much since last time, for one reason or another, and a One Nation win would have to be rated unlikely. It’s true that One Nation’s 4.44% on first preferences is higher than the 4.01% from which Ralph Babet scraped home for the United Australia Party in 2022, but the two major parties had between 2.2 and 2.3 quotas on that occasion – this time Labor is up to 2.435, reducing the chances of two seats going to minor parties.

Queensland

Count 1 Quotas Swing Count 78
ALP 30.67% 2.147 +4.01%
LNP 31.36% 2.195 -6.68%
GRN 10.29% 0.720 -3.09% 0.993
ON 7.05% 0.494 -0.94% 0.748
GRPF 4.63% 0.324 0.468

This appears clear cut, with both Labor and the Coalition a bit above two quotas and no chance of a amassing a third, leaving the other two seats to go to the Greens and One Nation. A joint ticket for Gerard Rennick and Katter’s Australian Party scored a solid 4.63%, which I dealt with by substituting it for the United Australia Party in the 2022 party data, such that it gave and received the same preferences flows. No doubt this is imprecise, but the margins involved are such that it doesn’t matter much.

Western Australia

Count 1 Quotas Swing Count 54 Count 55 Count 56 Count 57
ALP 36.49% 2.555 +1.94% 0.642 0.654 0.720 0.869
LNC 30.31% 2.122 -1.36%
GRN 12.78% 0.895 -1.47% 1.017
ON 5.87% 0.411 +2.38% 0.625 0.625 0.746 0.852
LC 3.94% 0.276 +0.56% 0.399 0.402 0.416
AUC 2.64% 0.185 +0.47% 0.253 0.253

I continue to project a result of Labor three, Liberal two and Greens one, but incorporating One Nation into the Liberal how-to-vote card order makes a close race even closer. The operative margin between the third Labor candidate and One Nation at the close is now 0.869 to 0.852, in from 0.872 to 0.825 the first time. I have factored in that Liberal how-to-vote cards varied from seat to seat in 2022 depending on how it was thought a recommendation for One Nation would play with local voters (a source of much thundering outrage from elements of the media when Labor did something similar with the Greens at this election), and am indebted to Kevin Bonham for recording the variants from 2022.

South Australia

Count 1 Quotas Swing Count 44 Count 45 Count 46 Count 47 Count 48 Count 49 Count 50
ALP 38.38% 2.687 +6.12% 0.704 0.706 0.723 0.730 0.852 0.944 0.995
LIB 27.77% 1.944 -6.16% 1.013
GRN 12.73% 0.891 +0.78% 0.996 0.998 1.011
ON 5.26% 0.368 +1.25% 0.415 0.420 0.470 0.470 0.504 0.551 0.749
ToP 2.80% 0.196 -0.23% 0.228 0.228 0.262 0.262 0.286 0.330
LC 2.77% 0.194 +0.45% 0.232 0.233 0.240 0.242 0.263
JLN 2.71% 0.189 +0.63% 0.219 0.220 0.233 0.233
FFP 1.99% 0.139 +1.56% 0.157 0.158

Here the Liberals scrape over the line to a quota at a late stage of the count, meaning their preferences for One Nation are of limited consequence. Previously I had the third Labor candidate’s winning margin over One Nation at the final count at 1.029 quotas to 0.743, now it’s 0.995 to 0.749. Here I used Bob Day’s independent candidacy in 2022 as a stand-in for Family First and the Rex Patrick Team for the Jacqui Lambie Network.

Tasmania

Count 1 Quotas Swing Count 36 Count 37
ALP 35.53% 2.487 +8.55% 0.761 0.874
LIB 23.67% 1.657 -8.28% 0.793 0.922
GRN 16.14% 1.130 +0.70%
JLN 7.25% 0.508 -1.37% 0.785 1.001
ON 5.08% 0.356 +1.21% 0.596

Beyond a clear two seats for Labor and one each for Liberal and the Greens, The Australian rates this a “tight, four-way preference contest” between Labor’s third, the Liberals’ second, Jacqui Lambie and Lee Hanson of One Nation. I consider this generous to Hanson, who does not stand to benefit from Liberal preferences as she will be excluded while the second Liberal remains in the count. I then have the third Labor candidate losing the game of musical chairs to the other two, but if the primary vote swings are reflected in preference flows stronger for Labor and weaker for Liberal, the modelled gap of 0.922 to 0.874 is narrow enough that Labor might win a third seat at the expense of the Liberals’ second (conversely, a weakening in support for Lambie among conservatives might mean stronger flows from One Nation to Liberal). The Australian makes some notable points about the pattern of Jacqui Lambie’s 7.3% vote, which is down from 8.9% when she last ran in 2019 and the 8.6% her party’s ticket scored in her absence in 2022. Support for Lambie went up in the city and down in the country, and slumped in salmon farming towns. However, my model has her on over a quota in the three-way race with 1.001 quotas, meaning she would have to fall behind both Liberal on 0.922 and Labor on 0.874 to lose. This doesn’t seem likely even allowing for the principle that a lower primary vote means weaker preferences, particularly considering such an effect would harm the Liberals at least as much.

Election plus two weeks (open thread)

Some links to things relating to the election and its aftermath.

Some random scraps of reading to keep the ball rolling until normal service resumes:

• Casey Briggs at the ABC has a very nifty bit of data visualisation recording how seats moved between Labor, Coalition and – most tellingly “others” at the signpost elections of 1995, 2004, 2022 and 2025, which you can observe by moving the scroll bar from about a third to half way down. Sticking the change from 2022 to 2025, it can be noted that seats either moved leftwards from Coalition to Labor or upwards from either to “others”.

• Samantha Maiden of news.com.au reports on the post-election reckoning following the Coalition’s evidently over-optimistic internal polling, a neat analogue to a similar failure in the Labor camp in 2019, both failures to some extent reflecting the errors in the published polling.

• I took part in a weekly Crikey debate feature on Friday, arguing to a brief in defending our electoral system. Kevin Bonham has a piece in The Guardian responding to those who have responded to a displeasing result by taking aim at preferential voting, which would have been a helpful thing for me to link to if the chronology had been right.

Essential Research: leadership ratings, national mood and preferred Liberal leader (open thread)

A post-election approval bounce for Anthony Albanese, and Sussan Ley favoured amid an indifferent response as preferred Liberal leader.

The first poll since the election is the regular fortnightly Essential Research, but it does not feature voting intention, which was presumably considered superfluous in the week after the real thing. We do get leadership ratings for Anthony Albanese, who gets a six point post-election bump on approval to 50% with disapproval down eight to 39%, and, a little redundantly, for Peter Dutton, who gets insult added to injury with a ten point drop on approval to 29% and an eight point hike on disapproval to 59%. The “national mood” has improved for one reason or another: 37% now rate the country as headed in the right direction, up six from late April, with wrong track down ten to 42%.

Out of the few who had an opinion on the matter, Sussan Ley scored highest for preferred Liberal leader at 16%, followed by Angus Taylor on 12% and Dan Tehan on 7%, with 45% unsure and 20% for none of the above. The apparent swing to Labor as the election approached appears not to have reflected a dramatic change in national priorities, with 53% rating cost-of-living the most important determinant of vote choice. It is arguably telling that “wanting a stable government in an uncertain world” came second with 12%, but the result was scarcely different from 11% for health policies and 9% for energy policies and “not liking Peter Dutton”. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1137.

Late counting: week two

Click here for full display of House of Representatives election results.

Friday

No counting today in Bradfield — apparently everything outstanding will be knocked off on Monday, followed by a distribution of preferences. Arriving today were 106 declaration pre-polls, which were the last of those unaccounted for, and the last postals before the deadline, of which there were 48. This is in addition to those that were already awaiting processing, of which there were 66 absents, 154 declaration pre-polls and 83 postals. That’s 430 overall, of which about 10% will be deemed invalid or informal if consistent with the overall trend, but I’m persuaded it might be a bit higher with the final batch. If not, my estimate yesterday of 380 will hold, as will my assessment that Nicolette Boele will need about 56% to win or 43% to quality for an automatic recount, the latter of which at least seems extremely likely.

In Goldstein, Zoe Daniel continues, with astonishing regularity, to whittle away at Tim Wilson’s lead at a rate not quite high enough to overturn what looked like a comfortable lead this time last week. Today it was a 104-102 break in declaration pre-polls that reduced her deficit to 254. However, there are only 332 remaining to be processed with no more to follow, of which Daniel would need nearly three-quarters to get to an automatic recount even if none of them were disallowed or informal.

Thursday

Bradfield. Gisele Kapterian’s lead was cut from 80 to 43 due to postals breaking 112-85 and out-of-division pre-polls breaking 149-138 to Nicolette Boele, while absents went 46-45 to Kapterian. Awaiting processing are 154 out-of-division pre-polls, 83 postals and 66 absents. A further 105 out-of-division pre-polls are yet to arrive, but will be admitted to the count when they do, as will whatever postal votes arrive tomorrow, of which there were 33 today. With about 90% of likely to become formal votes, that leaves about 380, of which Boele will need about 56%, or 43% to stay below the automatic recount threshold of 100 votes. I believe the last recount was held for Herbert in 2016, and it moved Labor’s winning margin from eight votes to 35. The only recount ever to change the result was in McEwen in 2007, when a six-vote Labor margin became a 12-vote Liberal margin. Labor succeeded in getting the Court of Disputed Returns to review the formality decisions, but its determinations in fact increased the Liberal margin to 31.

Goldstein. Tim Wilson’s margin was cut today from 401 to 292, as out-of-division pre-polls, absents and provisionals respectively broke 248-238, 158-92 and 98-65 to Zoe Daniel. However, Daniel’s vague hopes of getting below the automatic recount threshold have likely been dashed: I’m estimating another 380 out-of-division pre-polls, 225 postals, and 175 absents, of which Daniel would need 62%, increasing to 68% for her to actually chase down the margin.

Wednesday

Bradfield. A less fortuitous day today for Nicolette Boele, with absents breaking 105-79 against her, postals defying the strong earlier trend in breaking only 145-143 her way, and out-of-division pre-polls going a lot less well for her than yesterday’s in favouring her only by 284-281. That increases Gisele Kapterian’s lead from 59 to 80 and blows most of the chances Boele had to chase it down. My assessment of what’s yet to come: about 400 out-of-division pre-polls, 150 absents and 350 postals (262 of the latter are awaiting processing, which will be supplemented by new arrivals tomorrow and the next day, of which there were 144 today and 248 the day before). Boele will need around 54.5% of them to take the lead and 49% to make it to an automatic recount.

Longman. LNP member Terry Young has finally shaken off the challenge here, thanks to a large batch of out-of-division pre-polls breaking 1299-1111 his way, together with a 248-241 advantage on postals and a 510-488 disadvantage on absents. This boosts his margin from 162 to 335 with maybe 700 votes to go.

Goldstein. By popular demand, I’ll note that Tim Wilson’s lead is now down to 401, having started the week at 1472. Zoe Daniel won today’s batches by 296-189 on absents, 554-422 on out-of-division pre-polls and 251-231 on postals. Likely still to come: 750 declaration pre-polls, 500 absents, 150 postals and 100 provisionals, of which Daniel would need at least 64%, compared with the 62.9%, 55.2% and 55.7% she’s received across the three days this week.

Flinders. Of note because the AEC are doing a fresh count between Liberal member Zoe McKenzie and independent Ben Smith that’s now mostly done, on which McKenzie leads 53.3-46.7, which I’m projecting to come in at 52.6-47.4.

Tuesday

The AEC has pulled a number of its three-candidates, indicating it it satisfied it has the right candidates in its two-candidate counts. This is of consequence in Ryan, as it means the Greens rather than Labor will defeat the LNP at the final count; Grey, as it rules out independent Anita Kuss finishing ahead of Labor and being a shot at defeating the Liberal; and Monash, where the same applies for Deb Leonard. Elsewhere:

Bradfield. The big development of today’s counting was the return of Bradfield to everyone’s “in doubt” column after a small but potent batch of out-of-division pre-polls broke 298-179 in favour of Nicolette Boele, slashing her deficit from 178 to 59. For my part, I have also determined (here as elsewhere) that I over-corrected yesterday in reducing the number of outstanding votes, which as much as the size of the Liberal lead was a factor in my system calling it for Liberal from last night until the new numbers were reported this afternoon. My assessment is now that that there are likely to be:

• About 1000 out-of-division pre-polls. Since Boele has received 51.8% of these overall, she will gain about 35 votes if those outstanding prove typical. Of the four batches that have reported, she has successively received 49.6%, 46.0%, 50.4% and now 63.5%.

• Perhaps as many as 700 postals. There are 421 listed as awaiting processing, and the acceptance rate so far has been 97.7%. This includes 86 that were received yesterday and 248 today – for purposes of my calculations I’m conservatively estimating another 100 a day up to the deadline on Friday. Here the trend to Boele has been clear, her share of successive batches being 41.0%, 43.1%, 43.4%, 48.6%, 49.5% and 54.7%. If that last batch is repeated, Boele will gain about 60 to 70. Should they suddenly revert to the mean, Kapterian will gain about 100.

• About 350 absent votes. Of the three batches that have reported so far, Boele has progressively received 47.2%, 49.6% and 53.9%. If the remainder break like the last batch, Boele will gain about 25 votes. If they break as absents have done in total, they will make next to no difference.

Which collectively suggests a trend to Boele that my projected 27.6% win probability for her isn’t factoring in.

Longman. After an interruption yesterday, Labor’s very slow and steady progress in chipping away at the LNP lead resumed with favourable breaks in out-of-division pre-polls (296-262) and absents (415-414) and a net gain of 59 on rechecking. This brings the LNP lead in from 256 to 162. My estimate of what’s to come is about 2400 out-of-division pre-polls, 1250 absents, 700 postals and 100 or so provisionals. If these behave as such votes have so far, Labor will make up about 100 votes. Absents and postals have been trending in their favour, but not overwhelmingly so.

Goldstein. Zoe Daniel’s late charge continues, today’s out-of-division pre-polls (1084-886) and absents (547-409) reducing Tim Wilson’s margin from 963 to 660, after yesterday’s counting reduced it from 1472. However, even allowing for my increase in estimated outstanding votes to about 3400, this leaves her needing a formidable share approaching 60%. This is slightly higher than the 58% I estimated yesterday, and well clear of the 55.2% she got today.

Fisher. Yesterday I wrote that the AEC’s three-candidate count “makes it clear independent Keryn Jones will make the final count”. Evidently I shouldn’t have, because it now has her falling to third with 30,485 votes to second-placed Labor’s 30,672. That count is 1513 behind the primary vote count, and I’m estimating 6000 still to come, so the identity of the final two candidates remains an open question. If it’s Labor, Andrew Wallace of the LNP will win comfortably; if it’s Jones, he will probably win quite a lot less comfortably. My system is presently giving Jones a 7.7% chance.

Bean. Labor now leads by 354, and I only rate that there are about 1600 still to come, leaving independent Jessie Price needing over 60% after every category of vote has been running against her.

Calwell. The Guardian explains this so I don’t have to.

Monday

I’ve finally made the effort to revise how many votes are outstanding, which has until now erred well on the high side, causing my probability estimates to be generous to trailing candidates, and also used the AEC’s three-candidate counts to revise preference flows in seats close enough for it to be worth the effort. I’ve also done some pretty serious rewriting of the code that handles preference flows, which was at once too clever and not clever enough — if it’s doing anything strange, that’s where the explanation will lie.

Bradfield. I’m calling this for Liberal now, but a late surprise is at least mathematically possible. Nicolette Boele’s deficit narrowed today from 227 to 178 after she got the better of absents (173-148), out-of-division pre-polls (143-141), provisionals (78-75) and re-checking (a net gain of 19). There will be maybe 1300 to 1400 more votes admitted to the count, of which Boele will need at least 56% – even on a good day like today she managed only 52%, rechecking aside, which is probably complete now. A bit under 53% would get her as far as an automatic recount.

Kooyong. This is well and truly over now: Monique Ryan won today’s postals 1420-1006 and its out-of-division pre-polls 253-232, and now leads by 1128.

Longman. The momentum to Labor here has slowed and now stalled: today, absents broke 142-139 to the LNP, who also made a net gain of 34 on rechecking, increasing the lead from 219 to 256. There’s a lot still out there though: over 2000 absents, approaching 3000 out-of-division pre-polls, and about 400 postals and provisionals, with absents in particular likely to be favourable to Labor.

Ryan. This is as good as called for the Greens now, which is to say that the three-candidate numbers give Labor essentially no chance of making the final count at their expense, since there’s no question but that the LNP will come second.

Goldstein. Since my system doesn’t call a seat until it rates the probability at 99%, it isn’t entirely writing Zoe Daniel off — some good results on absents and rechecking have brought her deficit to inside 1000, and there’s a lot still to come, including another 2000 absents at least 3000 out-of-division pre-polls, and about 750 postals and provisionals. Of this she needs about 58%, which is remote enough that I’m not going to comment further unless something surprising happens.

Fisher. I haven’t been commenting on this one, but it’s a wild card — the three-candidate count makes it clear independent Keryn Jones will make the final count, and as the AEC’s two-candidate is still between LNP and Labor, it’s only on the basis of preference estimates that my own projection has Jones’s chances at as low as 3.2%. A lot of votes are as yet uncounted, but the real variable of consequence is preference flows, which we won’t know about until the full distribution is conducted.

Bean. This has been trending away from independent Jessie Price, who now trails by 450, and with the revision of outstanding votes my system is a fraction away from calling it.

Grey. My model looks like it was doing its job in rating it unlikely that independent Anita Kuss would reach the final count at Labor’s expense, because she’s fallen into third place on the AEC’s three-candidate count now the Whyalla booths are in. My model currently rates her a 10.0% chance of getting ahead and then making it home over the Liberal at the final count.

Forrest. The ABC is calling this for the Liberal, but I’m not writing off independent Sue Chapman quite yet. She’s third behind Labor in the AEC three-candidate count by 30.1% to 29.1%, which my projection narrows to 30.0% to 29.3%, giving her an 11.1% chance of edging ahead and then doing well enough on preference to win at the final count.

Saturday

Time for a fresh post of daily updates on counting for House of Representatives seats, which will linger through the coming week as late postals arrive.

Grey. I’ve managed to get my system to stop calling a clearly in-doubt seat as a win for Liberal candidate Tom Venning by having it treat Anita Kuss as a generic rather than a teal independent for the purposes of the ad hoc two-candidate preferred count between the two, which is necessarily speculative because there is only hard data for Liberal-versus-Labor. However, my projection still rates it as more likely that Kuss will fail to make the final count ahead of Labor — Kuss now leads Labor on the AEC’s still incomplete three-candidate count, but the booths this is based on are weaker for Labor and stronger for Kuss (by virtue of under-representing Whyalla), and my system is correcting for the difference.

Bradfield. With the clock running down, Nicolette Boele’s deficit went from 209 to 227 today, as absents broke 684-672 and out-of-division pre-polls broke 250-213 in favour of Gisele Kapterian, cancelling out a 31-vote gain for Boele on rechecking. My best guess is that about 1750 votes of various kinds are still to come, of which Boele needs upwards of 56%.

Kooyong. My system is calling this for Monique Ryan now — Amelia Hamer was relying on a borderline-implausible flow of out-of-division pre-polls, but the first batch of them has come in at 1260-1183 in favour of Ryan. A batch of postals broke 511-467 to Hamer, limiting Ryan’s gain since yesterday to 661 to 693. Likely still to come: about 1500 more out-of-division pre-polls, 1000 absent, and few hundred each out of provisionals and late-arriving postals, of which Hamer needs at least 70%.

Bendigo. The Labor-versus-Nationals two-candidate count has caught up with the primary votes now, putting Labor ahead 51.4-48.6, which my projection is generously (for the Nationals) revising down to 50.7-49.3, but there’s no real doubt Labor have made it over the line.

Longman. Yesterday I noted that Labor would sneak home if absents and out-of-division pre-polls continued at their existing rate, so it was good news for Terry Young that a batch of the latter broke 509-458 his way, where the first batch had gone 360-321 against. Conversely, he had his first unfavourable batch of postals to date, going 499-473. He also lost a net 37 on rechecking, leaving him with a lead of 219, in from 231 yesterday.

Bullwinkel. Labor’s lead here is out from 634 to 990, and I’d say that’s your lot.

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