Victorian polls: RedBridge Group and Resolve Strategic

Amid an unclear picture overall, two Victorian state polls show encouraging results for the Greens.

Two new state polls from Victoria, one being from RedBridge Group/Accent Research in yesterday’s Financial Review. It finds Labor steady on last month’s result at 24%, the Coalition up one to 30%, One Nation down one to 24% and the Greens up one to 16%. Labor trails the Coalition 56-44 on two-party preferred, but leads One Nation 55-45. Leadership ratings have Ben Carroll at 19% favourable (up five from August), 44% neutral (down 13) and 37% negative (up eight), and Jess Wilson at 35% favourable (up two), 47% neutral (steady) and 18% unfavourable (down two), with 28% favouring Wilson on preferred premier, 19% Carroll and 8% One Nation leader Warren Pickering. The poll was conducted October 2 to 8 from a sample of 1008.

The regular monthly Resolve Strategic poll in The Age is notable in recording a three-point uptick for the Greens to 15%, with the main contenders unchanged at Labor 25%, Coalition 28% and One Nation 23%. A three-way preferred premier question has everyone up – Ben Carroll by two points to 22%, Jess Wilson by one to 29% and One Nation’s Warren Pickering by six to 14%, with undecided down from 43% to 35%. The accompanying report has further results on the salience of various issues and the best party to handle them. The poll was conducted October 6 to 10 from a sample of 1000.

Federal polls: DemosAU and Roy Morgan (open thread)

The latest quarterly MRP exercise from DemosAU suggests Labor could retain a majority from a very modest share of the primary vote — which is just as well for them.

DemosAU has published one of its quarterly multilevel regression and post-stratification polls for Capital Brief, which estimates results at seat level based on demographic and geographic modelling and a large-sample survey. It rates Labor the more likely winner in 84 seats, although its randomised simulations of 20,000 potential scenarios suggests this flatters them, the probable range of outcomes being from 73 to 85. This would nonetheless seem encouraging for Labor given the poll credits them with only 27% of the primary vote.

By contrast, One Nation’s 26% vote gets them rated favourites in only 24 seats (range 22 to 35), whereas the Coalition’s 22% gets them 34 (range 25 to 44). The Greens are credited with 13% of the vote but no seats, a Liberal National win being rated the most likely outcome in their remaining seat of Ryan, although this is projected as a close three-way result. The pollster’s full release features primary vote, two-candidate preferred and win probability estimates for every seat. The survey was conducted August 4 to September 19 from a sample of 9740.

The latest result from a Roy Morgan series that has moved from weekly to fortnightly has Labor steady on 26%, One Nation down one-and-a-half to 24%, the Coalition down one to 21.5% and the Greens unchanged on 15%. Labor holds two-party leads of 53-47 over the Coalition on respondent-allocated preferences, out from 52.5-47.5; 53.5-46.5 on previous election preferences; and 54.5-45.5 on a respondent-allocated measure against One Nation, out from 53.5-46.5. The pollster’s full report features primary vote breakdowns by state. The poll was conducted September 28 to October 11 from a sample of 2655.

Federal polls: Newspoll and Resolve Strategic (open thread)

Amid a seemingly troublesome week for the government, two new polls record slight improvements in its primary vote.

The latest Newspoll result in The Australian has Labor’s primary vote up two points from three weeks ago to 29%, with One Nation down two to 28%, the Coalition up one to 20% and the Greens up one to 14%. Anthony Albanese is up a point on approval to 36% and down two on disapproval to 60%; Angus Taylor is up one to 36% and down three to 47%; and Pauline Hanson is down one to 43% and up one to 52%. A three-way preferred prime minister question has Albanese up one to 45%, Hanson down two to 30% and Taylor up one to 25%. Of the traditional preferred prime minister question, we are told that Albanese leads Taylor by five points, compared with a 42-41 lead last time. The poll was conducted Monday to Tuesday from a sample of 1241.

Nine Newspapers also has its monthly Resolve Strategic poll, showing Labor up a point to 29%, One Nation down two to 25%, the Coalition down one to 23% and the Greens up one to 12%. Anthony Albanese’s combined very good and result is up two to 36%, with poor and very poor up one to 54%. Angus Taylor is respectively up two to 41% and up three to 33%, and Pauline Hanson is down two to 45% and up four to 41%. A three-way preferred prime minister question has Albanese up three to 32%, Taylor up one to 22% and Hanson up one to 26%. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 2250.

Resolve Strategic should follow up with a Victorian state result over the coming days. There is also a new Victorian state poll from RedBridge Group/Accent Research, which is covered at the top of the previous post.

Victorian election minus seven weeks

A Roy Morgan seat projection suggests hope for Labor; the latest on Labor’s protracted upper house preselection process; and some expectations management from the One Nation camp.

UPDATE (October 11): The Financial Review has published a RedBridge Group/Accent Research poll that has Labor steady on last month on 24%, the Coalition up one to 30%, One Nation down one to 24% and the Greens up one to 16%. Labor trails the Coalition 56-44 on two-party preferred, but leads One Nation 55-45. Leadership ratings have Ben Carroll at 19% favourable (up five from August), 44% neutral (down 13) and 37% negative (up eight), and Jess Wilson at 35% favourable (up two), 47% neutral (steady) and 18% unfavourable (down two), with 28% favouring Wilson on preferred premier, 19% Carroll and 8% One Nation leader Warren Pickering. The poll was conducted October 2 to 8 from a sample of 1008.

Developments from the last week or two on the Victorian election front:

• Roy Morgan has published a seat projection based on 7708 respondents surveyed since March, which seems notably strong for Labor at 40 seats, enough to hang on to power with the six seats attributed to the Greens. That leaves the Coalition with 31 and One Nation with 11. How this is determined is not entirely clear, although the report further details One Nation “winnability scores” for the 88 seats. These appear to measure their demographic correspondence with the party’s “core support base”, while also taking account of three-party ordering and estimated preference flows.

• The ABC reports Labor will not formalise candidates at the business end of its upper house tickets until October 21, with the more consequential positions to be decided a week before. Labor expects to be reduced to a single seat in almost every region, whereas it currently holds two in all but one. The Australian’s Victoria Ink column reports the Left is demanding an advance on its existing share of two top spots out of eight, leaving the Right having to “offer up one of their own to help square the ledger”. This consideration is separate from a deal in which Enver Erdogan, who was elected from second position in Northern Metropolitan in 2022, will swap positions with Tim McIntosh, who was elected from first in Eastern Victoria. The ABC report says Erdogan and McIntosh are from “separate subgroups within Labor’s broader Right faction”, Erdogan’s being the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association.

• Sumeyya Ilanbey of the Financial Review reports One Nation is pursuing a “hit list” of 20 seats, but also quotes an insider saying the party was in fact focused on “about six seats” amid fears it had “left its ground game too late”. The former consists of Labor-held Lara, Bendigo West, Bendigo East, Eureka, Sunbury, Melton, Yan Yean, Ripon, Hastings, Pakenham and Bass; Liberal-held Evelyn, Berwick and Benambra; and Nationals-held Gippsland East, Gippsland South, Murray Plains, Euroa, Morwell and Mildura. For those who can access it, the report also features seat-level party vote shares from an MRP poll RedBridge Group conducted for Trades Hall in June.

• The Australian’s Victoria Ink column reports it has obtained a letter in which Labor campaign director Steve Staikos says the party is “open to” a three-way leaders’ debate including One Nation’s Warren Pickering, noting that polling “has consistently pointed to a scenario where the Liberal Party would only be able to form government with One Nation’s support”.

UK Holborn and St Pancras by-election live

Labour will be defending Keir Starmer’s former seat against a challenge from Greens leader Zack Polanski. Also covered: three past and upcoming electoral events in Canada’s provinces.

5:42pm Friday Result: Labour HOLDS Holborn and St Pancras with 45.2% (down 3.7% since the 2024 general election in that seat). The Greens won 32.8% (up 22.4%), the Conservatives 7.1% (down 0.1%), Reform 5.9% (down 0.2%), the Lib Dems 3.4% (down 2.4%) and Restore 2.5% (new). In 2024, a left-wing independent had won 18.9% in this seat, so the swing to the Greens was inflated.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Polls close at 8am AEDT Friday for a by-election in former UK Labour PM Keir Starmer’s seat of Holborn and St Pancras after he resigned in early September. I will be out all Friday and won’t be able to update until after 5pm.

At the July 2024 UK general election, Starmer won 48.9% in this seat, a left-wing independent 18.9%, the Greens 10.4%, the Conservatives 7.2%, the populist right Reform 6.1% and the Liberal Democrats 5.8%. A total of 15 candidates are contesting the by-election, including Greens leader Zack Polanski.

In the Election Maps UK national poll aggregate, Labour leads with 27.2%, followed by Reform at 23.3%, the Conservatives at 19.7%, the Greens at 10.0%, the Lib Dems at 10.0% and the populist right Restore at 3.9%. Labour PM Andy Burnham is the only party leader with a net positive approval at +9, with Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch at -1, Lib Dem leader Ed Davey at -5, Polanski at -24 and Reform leader Nigel Farage at -25. Starmer had a -41 net approval before he was ousted.

Seat projections give Labour 280 of the 650 House of Commons seats, the Conservatives 110, Reform 96, the Lib Dems 69, the Scottish National Party (SNP) 44 and the Greens nine. If this occurred, Labour could form government with the support of the Lib Dems.

Canada: past and upcoming electoral events

All Canadian federal and provincial elections use first past the post. At Monday’s Quebec provincial election, the separatist Quebec Party (PQ) won 59 of the 127 seats (up 56 since the 2022 election), the centre-left Liberals 40 (up 19), the Conservatives 19 (up 19), the left-wing separatist Quebec Solidaire (QS) nine (down two) and the conservative nationalist CAQ zero (down 90). The PQ is short of the 64 seats needed for a majority.

Vote shares were 28.0% PQ (up 13.4%), 24.2% Liberals (up 9.9%), 20.7% Conservatives (up 7.8%), 13.4% CAQ (down 27.6%) and 12.4% QS (down 3.0%). A massive crash in the CAQ vote combined with FPTP gave them zero seats after previously winning 90 of 125.

A referendum on whether the right-wing province of Alberta should secede from Canada will occur on October 19. If the referendum succeeds, there will be a binding referendum at a later date. Three September polls of this referendum gave “Remain in Canada” 40 to 50 point leads.

A snap election for the province of British Columbia has been called for October 24, two years early. At the October 2024 BC election, the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) won a bare majority with 47 of the 93 seats on 44.9% of the vote. The Conservatives won 44 seats on 44.3% and the Greens two seats on 8.2%. The NDP won a third successive term in government at that election.

In analyst Éric Grenier’s aggregate, the Conservatives lead the NDP by 44.6-43.3 with 8.7% for the Greens for this election. Seat point estimates have the Conservatives winning 47 seats, the NDP 44 and the Greens two.

Israeli election: October 27

Israel’s October 27 election will use national proportional representation with a 3.25% threshold to elect a total of 120 MPs. Only polls conducted for the right-wing Channel 14 give Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing governing coalition more than the 61 seats needed for a majority, with most other polls giving the government under 50 seats. However, even if the governing coalition loses its majority, it may be difficult to form an alternative government.

US and NZ elections updates

I wrote about both the US November 3 midterm elections and the November 7 NZ election for The Conversation on Wednesday. In the US, Democrats have a 9.6-point generic ballot lead in Nate Silver’s midterms model. They have a 74% chance to gain control of the Senate and a 94% chance in the House of Representatives. Donald Trump’s net approval is up from a record low to -22.5.

In NZ, a Reid Research poll gave the left-wing bloc a 2.1-point lead, the first left lead in any poll since June. A Verian poll had the right holding a 3.4-point lead. In both polls, Opportunity would win the balance of power.

YouGov: Labor 25, One Nation 28, Coalition 21 (open thread)

Labor hits a new low on the primary vote in an otherwise little-changed set of fortnightly federal poll numbers from YouGov.

The latest fortnightly News24 Pulse poll by YouGov records only minor change on the last result, although Labor’s one-point drop to 25% is noteworthy in being a new low for them in this series. One Nation is up a point to 28%, the Coalition is steady on 21% and the Greens are up one to a new peak of 15%. Labor’s lead over One Nation on the respondent-allocated two-party measure is in from 55-45 to 53-47, while its lead over the Coalition on the previous election flows two-party measure is unchanged at 52-48.

Anthony Albanese is unchanged at 33% approval and down one to 61% disapproval, while Angus Taylor is down two to 34% and up three to 51%. Albanese’s lead over Taylor on preferred prime minister is down to 40-39, in from 41-37 last time, and his lead over Hanson has narrowed from 50-38 to 50-40. The poll also finds 63-37 breaking against Jim Chalmers’ proposition that last week’s interest rate increase was “primarily the result of the conflict in the Middle East”. It was conducted last Tuesday to this Tuesday from a sample of 1505.

RedBridge Group: Labor 28, One Nation 29, Coalition 21 (open thread)

A new federal poll finds One Nation edging to a primary vote lead, and a further slump in Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings.

The Financial Review has its monthly RedBridge Group/Accent Research poll, showing One Nation gaining a point to lead on the primary vote with 29%, Labor down one to 28%, the Coalition down one to 21% and the Greens down one to 11%. The poll is distinctive in crediting the Coalition with a 54-46 two-party lead over Labor on respondent-allocated preferences, out from 52-48, albeit that the Coalition would clearly be running third in most seats on these numbers. A measure based on 2025 election preference flows shows 50-50, after Labor led 52-48 last time. Labor holds an unchanged respondent-allocated lead of 52-48 over One Nation.

The report has net approval ratings for various figures, for which I will hopefully be able to provide more detail later today. Anthony Albanese has slumped ten points to a net minus 27%, Jim Chalmers is down nine to 23%, Pauline Hanson is up two to minus 10, and Angus Taylor is down three to minus six. Respondents were also asked about Michelle Bullock, who was at minus three, though the uncommitted rate here would be worth knowing. A three-way preferred prime minister question has Albanese steady on 31%, Hanson up two to 26% and Taylor steady on 15%. The poll was conducted last Monday to Friday from a sample of 1000.

Note also the post below on today’s Brazilian presidential election.

Brazilian presidential first round election live

It’s unlikely either Lula or Flavio Bolsonaro will win a majority in today’s Brazilian presidential election, so the runoff on October 25 will probably be needed. Runoff polls slightly favour Bolsonaro.

Live Commentary

9:31am Tuesday In elections to the legislature, Bolsonaro’s Liberals won 121 of the 513 seats in the Chamber of Deputies (up 22 since 2022), while the left-wing coalition won 88 seats (up 11). Other parties winning seats appear to be centrist to right-wing. In the Senate, the Liberals won 19 of the 54 seats up for election (up 14), with the left holding its six seats. The Liberals have a total of 29 of the 81 seats, to nine for the left.

1:28pm (Two paragraph entry) With all first round votes counted, Bolsonaro defeated Lula by 47.0-45.2, a 1.9-point margin. Of the remaining votes, 5.1% were for centrist candidates and 2.2% for another right-wing candidate. Lula won’t win the October 25 runoff unless he gains votes directly from Bolsonaro.

Most polls understated F. Bolsonaro, but not as badly as they understated J. Bolsonaro in 2022. The most accurate first round poll (Futura) gave Bolsonaro a two-point lead. That poll gives him a 2.9-point lead in the runoff.

10:53am There has been a clear trend to Lula in late counting, with Bolsonaro’s lead down to 47.6-44.5 with 95% in.

10:13am With 85% counted, F. Bolsonaro leads Lula by 48.5-43.5. In 2022, Lula won the first round over J. Bolsonaro by 48.4-43.2.

9:45am With 65% counted, Bolsonaro falls below 50%, but leads Lula by 49.6-42.3. Counting has stalled for a while.

9:14am With 47% counted, Bolsonaro leads Lula by 50.2-41.6. Bolsonaro probably won’t get a first round majority, but it looks as if he’ll win the first round and be the heavy favourite in the October 25 runoff.

8:40am With 31% counted, Bolsonaro leads Lula by 50.7-41.1. While there remains a small swing to Lula in the federal district, there’s a big swing to Bolsonaro in Tocantins. With 84% counted there, he leads by 50.7-43.1. In 2022, Lula beat J. Bolsonaro in Tocantins by 50.4-44.0 in the first round.

8:05am With 12% counted, Bolsonaro leads by 51.1-40.7. The federal district is the most complete with 70% counted. If current figures there are accurate, Lula will have a small swing to him there compared with the first round result in 2022.

7:35am With 2% counted, Bolsonaro leads Lula by 49.7-41.8.

6:59am Monday The Guardian has live results. In 2022, initial results favoured Bolsonaro more than the final figures.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Polls close at 7am AEDT Monday (note, not AEST anymore) for the first round of Brazil’s presidential election. Brazil uses staggered polling hours, where polls in a trailing time zone open and close an hour before those in a leading time zone. This means all polls will close at the same time.

Unless one candidate wins more than 50% of the vote today, a runoff between the top two will occur on October 25. The two main candidates are Workers’ Party incumbent Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former populist right president Jair Bolsonaro. At the 2022 presidential election, Lula defeated Jair Bolsonaro in the runoff by 50.9-49.1, ending Bolsonaro’s presidency after one term. Polls had understated Bolsonaro at that election.

Brazilian polls include undecided, so both Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are doing better than their current vote shares indicate, with Lula usually ahead in first round polls. The other four listed candidates are in the single digits. With undecided removed, I expect the first round winner (Lula or Bolsonaro) to get at least mid-40s, not far from a majority.

In 12 polls of the likely runoff by different pollsters taken since September 24, Bolsonaro has an average lead of 0.5 points, with a range from a four-point Lula lead to a 5.5-point Bolsonaro lead. Bolsonaro has gained a lead for the runoff since I last wrote about Brazil two weeks ago.

Federal elections to the legislature will also be held today. In the Senate, 54 of the 81 seats will be up for election with two senators elected for each of Brazil’s 27 states using first past the post; the other 27 senators were elected in 2022. All 513 seats in the Chamber of Deputies will be elected by proportional representation using multi-member electorates based on the states.

US and NZ elections updates

US midterm elections occur on November 3. I wrote for The Conversation on September 25 that Donald Trump’s US net approval was at a record low -23.0 in Nate Silver’s aggregate (it’s now -23.5). In Silver’s forecast model, Democrats now lead Republicans by 9.6 points on the generic ballot (9.1 points on September 25). They have a 73% chance to gain control of the Senate and a 93% chance to gain control of the House of Representatives (previously 69% and 91% respectively).

The New Zealand election is on November 7. I wrote for the NZ edition of The Conversation last Tuesday that the right-wing parties had a lead over the left-wing parties, with the centrist Opportunity a reasonable chance to gain the balance of power. The Greens surged four points to a record high 16% in a late September Verian poll.

Canadian Quebec provincial election on Tuesday AEDT

Results of the Canadian Quebec provincial election will come out on Tuesday AEDT. The 127 seats are elected by FPTP. At the 2022 Quebec election, the conservative nationalist CAQ won 90 of the 125 seats on 41.0% of the vote, the centre-left Liberals 21 on 14.4%, the left-wing separatist Quebec Solidaire (QS) 11 on 15.4%, the separatist Quebec Party (PQ) three on 14.6% and the Conservatives zero on 12.9%.

Analyst Éric Grenier says the polls give the PQ 30.0% of the vote, the Liberals 23.5%, the Conservatives 19.4%, the CAQ 15.0% and QS 10.8%. Seat projections give the PQ a point estimate of 68 seats, the Liberals 36, the Conservatives 16, QS seven and the CAQ zero. If this occurs, the CAQ would be wiped out after winning a big majority in 2022, while the PQ would win a majority from just three seats.

UK by-election in Starmer’s former seat on Thursday

Former UK Labour PM Keir Starmer resigned as Member for Holborn and St Pancras in early September. The by-election for this seat will occur on Thursday. At the July 2024 UK general election, Starmer won 48.9% in this seat, a left-wing independent 18.9%, the Greens 10.4%, the Conservatives 7.2%, the populist right Reform 6.1% and the Liberal Democrats 5.8%. A total of 15 candidates are contesting the by-election, including Greens leader Zack Polanski.

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