An avalanche of federal polling should start rumbling early this evening, as every significant player unloads with helpfully timed polls that would have been conducted in any cause to gauge reaction to the budget. Until then, today’s post offers some snippets of party intelligence to filter through the media, plus some candidate news of varying degrees of freshness.
• James Campbell of the Herald Sun reports Liberal sources saying polling has them “in the hunt” in the north-western Melbourne seat of Gorton, where Brendan O’Connor is taking a 10.0% Labor margin into retirement, but seemingly behind in the West Gippsland seat of Monash, where Liberal-turned-independent member Russell Broadbent “is polling well enough to retain the seat with Labor and independent preferences”.
• Linda Silmalis’s The Source column in the Daily Telegraph relates a Liberal source saying their polling “could be better” in Bradfield, where Gisele Kapterian hopes to succeed the retiring Paul Fletcher in the face of a challenge from teal independent Nicolette Boele.
• The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks round-up of Queensland political news reports data on Labor’s campaigning operation indicates it is putting its most determined efforts into Leichhardt (5179 phone calls and 1549 door-knocks last week), Blair (4533 and 1400) and Brisbane (4483 and 1406). A Labor source is quoted saying the party’s numbers have improved in Blair after early showing them to be in “real danger”, with Anthony Albanese’s intervention to protect the preselection of incumbent Shayne Neumann likely to make the difference.
Much of what follows came as news to me while I was updating the federal election guide:
• A number of former parliamentarians are making comeback attempts under new guises in the Senate. Having cycled through the United Australia Party and One Nation after his breach with the Liberal Party, former Hughes MP Craig Kelly is running for the Libertarian Party in New South Wales, at the head of a joint ticket in alliance with the vaccine-skeptic HEART party and ex-Liberal National Party Senator Gerard Rennick’s new People First party. The Legalise Cannabis candidate in Victoria is Fiona Patten, who founded the Australian Sex Party in 2009 and its successor Reason Australia in 2018, representing both in the state upper house region from 2014 to 2022. Bernie Finn, the former radio broadcaster who served on-and-off as a Liberal in state parliament from 1992 to 2022, and unsuccessfully contested the 2022 election with the Democratic Labour Party, is Family First’s lead Victorian Senate candidate. Another former Liberal parliamentarian running for Family First is Elizabeth Kikkert in the Australian Capital Territory.
• Fremantle retailer Kate Hulett, who came within 424 votes of unseating state government minister Simone McGurk in the state seat of Fremantle three weeks ago, has announced she will now run in the federal seat of Fremantle.
• Hunter will be contested for One Nation by Stuart Bonds, the mining mechanic and cattle farmer who polled 21.6% as the party’s candidate in 2019. Bonds returns to the party after a less successful run for the seat as an independent in 2022, when he polled 5.7%. The seat is also being targeted by the “prime ministerial candidate” of Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots, Suellen Wrightson.
• Queensland’s Liberal National Party eventually got around to choosing David Batt, state member for Bundaberg from 2017 to 2020, as its candidate for Hinkler, which has been left vacant since Keith Pitt’s retirement in January. The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column reports Batt won a late February preselection ballot by a final round margin of 72-43 over over Bree Watson, chief executive of Bundaberg Fruit and Vegetable Growers and unsuccessful candidate for Bundaberg last October.
My take on it is that a Labor majority is possible at 51% 2PP and likely at 52% (the Coalition equivalents are probably at least 52 and 53).
On the current Bludgertrack state breakdowns and adding 1% to Labor for each to get to a 51% baseline, a 51% scenario would involve a ~4% swing in Victoria and near zero in the other states. That could see Labor with a majority if, say, they limit their losses in Victoria to 2-3 seats, there is no net change between Labor and the Coalition across the rest of Australia, and they have a net gain of a seat or two against crossbenchers (say, one of the Queensland Green seats or Fowler).
Fulvio Sammut says:
Sunday, March 30, 2025 at 5:28 pm
Will the libs call for a spill for next Tueday?
Things look bad.
Very bad.
They don’t have a Bob Hawke wating in the wings. It’s Dutton till the bitter end.
The federal lib/nats propaganda media units were in denial , that the federal lib/nats combined primary vote was too low for a minority government in 2022, and as expected doing a repeat of it during this election campaign
The federal lib/nats combined primary vote will be too low , to force an minority government
Labor majority
Or was the early release a Signal Gate error in communications between Murdoch and Menzies House?
From the “how low will they go” department.
Toronto Star, March 29
Why conspiracy theorists are trying so hard to falsely link Mark Carney and Jeffrey Epstein
By Alex Boyd Staff Reporter
As an economist and central banker at the highest levels, Liberal leader Mark Carney is “almost a perfect target” for baseless conspiracy theories.
It all goes back to when Mark Carney, in purple, was photographed next to Ghislaine Maxwell, in black, at the 2013 Wilderness Music Festival. Photographer Adrian Sherrat recalls the newly minted governor of the Bank of England “looked awkward” and didn’t do much, other than walk around with his wife Diana, right….. While they’re standing next to each other, Carney seems to be reacting to the man standing on his other side.
The phenomenon is now spilling over into Carney’s real-world rallies. On Wednesday evening in Kitchener, he was interrupted by a heckler demanding to know how many kids he’d “molested” with Epstein. Carney attempted to continue his speech as the yelling intensified, before bemoaning, in French, the interaction as “the product of the politics of division, of conspiracy theories.”
If attack ads are any measure, Mark Carney is squarely in the political big leagues.
In the weeks since he entered the Liberal leadership race, ads both for and against him have sprouted across social media. While mudslinging is par for the course in politics, one particularly dark current has worked — without evidence — to tie him to Jeffrey Epstein, the notorious American financier and trafficker of underage girls who, though dead for six years, remains a very current fixation in far-right circles.
It traces back to a series of photos snapped of Carney and Ghislaine Maxwell, Epstein’s ex-girlfriend who remains in prison for her role in Epstein’s crimes, at a British music festival over a decade ago. The photos are real, though not particularly unusual. As a socialite, Maxwell pops up in a lot of photos from the era, with people with no connection to Epstein.
But, boosted by fake AI-generated images, interest in the original photos has metastasized into questions, concerns and even false claims that Carney himself is tied to child trafficking. It’s a sign, experts say, of how deeply rooted the remnants of conspiracy theories like QAnon and Pizzagate — both baselessly warned about elites and pedophilia — have become even in Canada.
“Carney is almost a perfect target for these ideas,” notes Amarnath Amarasingam, an associate professor who studies conspiracy theories and online communities at Queen’s University, in an email. “He moved in multiple elite circles, all of which have — separately — been the object of conspiracy theories, such as climate finance, the World Economic Forum, and central banking.”
The federal liberal party in Victoria , still likely to lose more seats than Labor
liberal party seats which could be loses
Casey, Deakin, Menzies, Monash , Wannon
Federal lib/nats less than 55 in total
Mick Ryan says what he really thinks about Australia’s Defence capability..
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/whoever-wins-the-election-stop-the-rot-in-defence-we-re-in-peril-as-never-before-20250330-p5lnke.html
Oh for heaven’s sake, Dutton is going to stay as leader, regardless of what the polls do.
And again, a reminder that for the next 5 weeks the polls are going to go up and down and all over the place. Which is the reason I’m not focused on individual polls, but will take the helicopter view.
I suspect Newspoll and the Australian wanted the publicity that would come from being the first major Poll released. There is little point in holding it back to get it in the print edition anymore which was why it late on Sunday night (that was when the papers were starting to be printed and sent out).
Newspoll would be on people’s lips tonight and Resolve will be an after thought in the morning.
Except Donald Trump who not only associated with Epstein, but was photographed with him. Perhaps Carney needs to start saying that, invoking the 51st state thing again so he can keep running against Trump rather than the conservative leader.
Fess go with the trend which is moderately in Labor’s favour. Individual polls are good for indicating if the trend is maintained.
Early signs are positive for Labor. Albanese should thank Trump for his contributions.
Funny how whenever Epstein is mentioned people bring up either Trump or Clinton, but never both at the same time.
”
Griffsays:
Sunday, March 30, 2025 at 1:53 pm
sprocket_ says:
Sunday, March 30, 2025 at 1:45 pm
Lars
Does Allegra support hosting a COP? Or does she support the Daily Rupert?
_________
Lars is finding it difficult to maintain line and length at present. The vision of Howard throwing his arm over comes to mind
”
Apparently, Lars was originally sent in 2005 to PB to report on WorkChoice discussions by Laborites at that time.
Murdoch trying to usurp Resolve
New thread.
Sprocket
“ Mick Ryan says what he really thinks about Australia’s Defence capability.”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/whoever-wins-the-election-stop-the-rot-in-defence-we-re-in-peril-as-never-before-20250330-p5lnke.html
Whilst I obviously hope Labor wins the election, if it does, the Defence Minister should be changed. The department needs reform. Marles has not delivered it. We need a Defence Minister whose skills extend beyond golf.
Resolve has swing back to Labor
Scott – They are not losing Menzies. There is no strong independent and Labor is running a token candidate. Plus there is a sitting MP this time. I would have expected an Independent to have been found by Climate 200 even if just to distract from other seats.
Monash is a real mixture. Deb Leonard is running a stronger campaign than last time as she now has Climate 200 money. But there is also the fact that Broadbent is running as an Independent. It will really depend on where in the final mix things end up.
Casey – I can’t see it happening. But then again there might be an upset.
“Ummm. It was a senior Labor figure and power broker who suggested it. Clearly, it is something that some within Labor are considering, whether you want to acknowledge it or not.
Disagree by all means. But do try and do so without being rude about it.”
@Player One
One former politician opinon doesn’t mean Labor considering it. You are drawing a long bow and have no evidence or sources Labor’s considering it. I’m not being rude I’m just stating the facts. I’ve seen you deliberately troll and post smiley’s doing it. I think you need to take your own advice.
”
Hard Being Greensays:
Sunday, March 30, 2025 at 3:06 pm
Long time since I’ve posted here but I watch things intently, well some things, others I don’t bother with
There are some pretty clever folks here who know their stuff so a simple question
Does anybody seriously think Labor can get to majority on a primary vote under 30% i.e. as suggested by today’s YouGov MRP?
”
Hard being Green
It is Hard to believe, isn’t it?
I for one, don’t
For anyone who would like a short break from dissecting polling:
Steve Marsh is a Scottish travel vlogger on You tube who visits out of the way places and avoids guided tours. This video “The Unassuming City Making Headlines Around The World” is where he spends a day walking around Nuuk in the snow and some great views of ice in the harbour. He even manages some dry humour regarding Trump moving in. Takes 38 minutes or less if you fast forward past any bits you find boring.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=keSEBhWdBdo
The Bluey Report Day 3
Bluey got distracted by a Raja australis today.
Yesterday Bluey opined that Liberal policy making was chaotic.
Today Laura Tingle opined that Liberal policy making was chaotic.
Phil the Coorey tried to demur but his heart was not in it.
Bluey noted another Insiders gem which also confirmed what Bluey has been saying: Dutton is autocratic (and has control freaks in his office) and this is messing with policy formation and policy integration across the team.
Insiders confirmed the reason for another Bluey point about the Liberals shonky costings. Why is it so? Cos they are doing the numbers themselves and are avoiding getting the Parliamentary Budget Office doing the costings for them.
The final point that confirmed a Bluey observation was that what was below Dutton was ‘thin’. Taylor got a mention in the skinny stakes. Bluey reckons that, when it comes to complex policy nous, Dutton is not all that fat either.
Labor got in early today and set the agenda: a supermarket price gouging task force.
The Liberals were promising some numbers on gas but they insisted that they would not put a figure on how much households would save. Patterson had to fudge the fact that he has not seen the modeling by pattering on about how he had been ‘briefed’ on it. Bluey knows a brief briefing when he sees it.
The Liberals were promising some numbers on how they are going to achieve a 25% cut in migrant numbers. But not yet. They have had three years to do this. They have been paid around three quarters of a million dollars each over the past three years to do one thing: get a policy together. Anyhoo, Bley reckons the the numbers will be tricky to sell, especially after Dutton decided to kick down at duals. Most migration is family reunion and skilled categories.
Patterson did some spectacular sleazing on the fuel excise figures. The average saving will be $6.50. Patterson managed to get a household to pump in 110 litres a week and save $28 a week.
The MSM continue to root the truth on behalf of Dutton.
Bluey notes that the polling is putting increasing pressure on Dutton to deliver something, anything.
Albanese was confident and across his briefs on Insiders. Patterson was confident and fudged the majority of his numbers on Insiders.
Labor gets one for setting the policy agenda and plus one for doing the things a Party needs to do during elections. It gets minus 1 for the MSM rooting with the truth on Dutton’s behalf. Buey reckons sleaze abounds.
The Liberals get minus 1 for poor policy work, minus 1 for campaigning flatfooted and plus 1 because the MSM is strongly in their corner. Bluey reckons this is all the Liberals have ATM.
Bluey reckons that PHON will pick up more of the old UAP cookers than will ToP and that Dutton has simultaneously failed to attract the ratbag cooker element AND pissed off the Teal followership.
Greens look more like they are trying to hold what they already have than getting additional seats.
The Nationals are trying to hold the fort and maybe snag a seat or two but there is nothing dramatic in that neck of he woods.
Bluey reckons that Trump is still a drag on Dutton. So sad.
As usual, much of the entertainment value is going to come from the Indies, despite the fact that they are claiming to be about to rescue Australia from itself. Flogging corflutes, doing some nobbling while whinging about nobbling, that sort of thing.
Bluey does note the polling shows that those polled are tending to accumulate at the extremes and expects that the draggle tailed gabble rabble will appeal to more Australians than ever before. Go figure.
Labor plus 1 for a total of 5.
Liberals minus 1 for a total of minus 5
Greens 0 for a total of 2
PHON plus 1 for a total of 3
Indies plus 1 for a total of 3
Nationals 0 for a total of 2
ToP plus 1 for a total of minus 2.
Pageboi says:
Sunday, March 30, 2025 at 4:21 pm
Hack (briefly)
And yet it’s clear that we desperately need fresh thinking in foreign affairs, trade and defence.
All in the fullness of time.
Right now there is an election to fight and win. Gina’s puppet has made himself unelectable. Labor should be careful not to deflect an otherwise glorious victory.
mjsays:
Sunday, March 30, 2025 at 10:43 am
Rex Douglassays:
Sunday, March 30, 2025 at 10:26 am
I think Albo’s pathological hatred of the Greens is a huge barrier to a workable minority Govt.
If Labor minority Govt eventuates, Labor will have to have a plan B leader ready to takeover swiftly if paralysis starts to take hold.
——-
If Albo had been growing up now he’d probably join the Greens. I think he hates them because they are a constant reminder to his him that he’s moved away from the principles he had when young. Deep down he seems uncomfortable with becoming a sell-out.
It looks to me that Chalmers is being earmarked to take over sometime during the next term if Labor are re-elected even if they are returned to majority govt.
I think Albo is banking on not having to talk to the Greens, let alone negotiating with them.
Come on folks we need to be a bit more creative with our Rankings than, “Sukkar looks like someone’s fat uncle”.
May I suggest that you google or You Tube, Gabe Kaplan, The Mr Cotter of ‘Welcome back, Cotter’ and listen to his “Holes and Mello Rolls” monologue.
The “Dear Linda’, love letter to Linda Lovelace is also ahuge rib tickler, too.
Gabe was 50 years ahead of his time and his “These Americans” , performed from a Canadian perspective, beseeching Korean families to sponsor an American child or sendig food parcels from the 3rd World to American families, desperate for food.