Tasmanian election: YouGov poll and election guide

A new poll finds Labor well placed to emerge from the Tasmanian state election as largest party, but well short of a majority.

Two developments on the Tasmanian election, one being the publication of the Poll Bludger’s election guide, including an overview page and a guide for each seat, each with tables, charts, interactive maps, historical detail and voluminous candidate summaries.

The other is the first public opinion poll of the campaign, which suggests Labor is best placed to emerge as the largest party and has at least some hope of stitching together a government arrangement with the independents rather than the Greens. Conducted by YouGov between June 15 to 25 from a sample size of 1287, the poll has Liberal on 31%, down from 36.7% at the March 2024 election; Labor on 34%, up from 29.0%; the Greens on 13%, down from 13.9%; and a generic independents response on 18%, up from 9.6%. Jeremy Rockliff maintains a 43-36 lead over Dean Winter as preferred premier.

The poll having been conducted before the declaration of nominations on Friday, the independents result (together with the lack of a result for the Nationals, who are fielding candidates in the three non-Hobart divisions) might be thought imprecise. But with the usual caveats applying for small sum-samples, the breakdowns by electorate show a pattern of independent support consistent with recent form, peaking at 30% in Clark, where Kristie Johnston seeks re-election and former senior Liberal member Elise Archer hopes to re-establish a career independent of her old party. The result in Franklin is 20%, as it will probably need to be if Peter George is able to parlay his strong federal election result into a state seat without depriving independent incumbent David O’Byrne. The 19% result in Braddon is encouraging for Craig Garland, and 15% in Bass likewise for Rebekah Pentland.

An question that allowed respondents to choose three out of ten potential motivations for their vote choice interestingly included both “pro” and “anti” options for the Macquarie Point AFL stadium, salmon farming and privatisation. The Macquarie Point options scored 55% between them, shading “investing in more health” on 52%, of whom 33% were “anti” and 22% “pro”, with little if any indication of geographical variation. Salmon farming had 18% for “anti” and 17% for “pro”, with some indication of urban electorates leaning to the former and regional ones the latter. Opposition to privatisation was a motivation for 34%, compared with 18% for support. Respondents were also asked if they supported or favoured privatisation and asset sales, with respective results of 36% and 47%.

Donation drive

Time for the bi-monthly appeal to the readership of the Poll Bludger to help keep the proverbial wolf from its proprietor’s proverbial door, which can be done by making use of the “become a supporter” buttons at the top of the site and the bottom of each post. I had hoped this would coincide with the publication of my guide to the July 19 Tasmanian state election, but after a long night of labours must reluctantly concede that it will have to wait until tomorrow. It will happen tomorrow though, and feature the usual panoply of tables, charts, interactive maps, historical detail on each electorate and summaries of all major candidates. With that out of the way, coverage of the campaign will pick up as it enters the business end of proceedings, to culminate as usual with this site’s famed live results features on election night and beyond.

New York City Democratic mayoral primary election live

Former New York governor Andrew Cuomo is the favourite to win today’s Democratic mayoral nomination, but a late poll has a socialist ahead.

Live Commentary

5:19pm Wednesday July 2: Preferences were distributed last night, and Mamdani defeated Cuomo by 56.0-44.0.

12:42pm With 90% in, Mamdani leads Cuomo on primary votes by 43.5-36.3. This looks over, but US media won’t call it until the preferential vote tabulation next Tuesday. After the November general election, NYC is likely to have a socialist mayor.

11:49am With 81% in, Mamdani leads on primary votes by 43.8-35.7. If Mamdani’s lead holds up on the remaining votes, he’s very likely to win. Most polls have been very wrong about this contest. The preference tabulation is not until next Tuesday.

11:26am With 54% in, Mamdani’s primary vote lead over Cuomo has been reduced to 43.5-35.4.

11:09am Already we have 38% of votes in, and Mamdani leads Cuomo by 43-34 on primary votes. But these are early votes, and election day votes may be better for Cuomo.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

The New York City (NYC) mayoral general election will be held in November. But NYC is strongly Democratic, so the winner of today’s Democratic mayoral primary is likely to win the general. This election uses Australian-style preferential voting.

Polls close at 11am AEST today, but only primary votes will be counted, with the first tabulation of preferences to be held in a week. It will be optional preferential voting, with a maximum of five preferences allowed. Voters won’t number each box as in Australia. Instead, they’ll be presented with five columns. The left column will be the first choice (primary vote), with the fifth column corresponding to the fifth preference. US ballot papers are intended to be read by machines, not hand counted.

It would be better if NYC and other US jurisdictions that use preferential voting had an indicative two candidate count on election night between the two candidates who were thought likely to make the final two. This would mean they wouldn’t usually have to wait for the preference tabulation to call a winner.

Andrew Cuomo was the Democratic governor of New York state from 2011 until his resignation in 2021 owing to sexual harassment allegations. He was elected in 2010 and re-elected in 2014 and 2018. Despite the circumstances of his resignation as governor, Cuomo has a clear lead after preferences in most NYC mayoral polls.

Cuomo and Zohran Mamdani (a socialist) are very likely to be the final two candidates, with Cuomo leading Mamdani by double digit margins after preferences in many polls. However, a late Emerson College poll gives Mamdani a four-point lead over Cuomo after preferences.

Current NYC mayor Eric Adams, who was elected as a Democrat in 2021, is running for re-election as an independent. Adams was indicted last September on federal bribery and fraud charges, but in February federal prosecutors were ordered to dismiss all charges against Adams, who is seen as close to Donald Trump. While the primary uses preferential voting, the November general election will use first past the post. Emerson College polls suggest either Cuomo or Mamdani would easily win in November.

Trump’s national US ratings and Israeli polls

At time of writing on Tuesday, Trump’s net approval in Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls was -6.0, down from -3.7 in early June, with 52.0% disapproving and 45.9% approving. Trump’s net approval on his strongest issue (immigration) has fallen about eight points since early June to -4.1, perhaps owing to the reaction to his handling of protests in Los Angeles.

G. Elliott Morris, who used to run FiveThirtyEight before it was axed, said in polls taken before Trump announced the US bombing of Iran on Saturday night US time, 57% opposed this action while 21% supported it. This compares with 54-41 support for initial military action against ISIS in 2014, 71-27 support for Iraq in 2003 and 88-10 for Afghanistan in 2001.

The next Israeli election is not due until October 2026. Israel uses national proportional representation with a 3.25% threshold to elect its 120 MPs, with 61 needed for a majority. At the November 2022 election, Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud and allied parties won a majority for the right with 64 seats. This election ended a run of five elections in four years.

Current polls give the governing parties combined about 50 seats, with about 65 for the opposition parties. An Arab party that is not part of either the government or opposition has the remaining five seats. Israel’s attack on Iran on June 13 has not made a difference.

Federal politics: Roy Morgan poll and preference flow data (open thread)

Roy Morgan’s second federal poll of the time records essentially no change on the first. Also: a look under the bonnet at preference flows courtesy of the AEC.

Roy Morgan has its (and anybody’s) second federal poll since the election, showing Labor’s two-party lead unchanged from the first such poll three weeks ago at 58-42. The primary votes are Labor 37.5% (up half), Coalition 31% (steady), Greens 12% (up half) and One Nation 6%. The poll was conducted June 2 to 22 from a sample of 3957.

Also of note was the Australian Electoral Commission’s publication of preference flow data from the election, including aggregated measures of how each minor party’s preferences split between Labor and the Coalition. A large component of the pollsters’ failure to credit the 55.2% two-party vote share Labor ended up recording lay in an expectation, fuelled by recent state elections, that preference flows to Labor would not match those of 2022. In aggregate, Labor’s share of all minor party and independent preferences ended up being all but identical to 2022, vindicating the determination of RedBridge Group (together with late newcomer DemosAU) in their persistence with 2022 election flows in determining their two-party preferred headlines.

However, the preference flow by party data shows that beneath the surface stability was a continuation of an apparent polarisation in minor party preferences, reflected in record highs for both the Greens flow to Labor and One Nation flow to the Coalition. Pollsters were thus vindicated in revising upwards the flow of One Nation preferences to the Coalition – but none correctly apprehended that Greens preferences would continue to trend the other way, and at least one did the opposite.

YouGov: 67-33 to Labor in South Australia

A rare South Australian state poll finds Labor on course for one of the biggest landslides in Australian electoral history.

The Advertiser today carries a poll of South Australian state voting intention from YouGov (no online report at the time of writing, but the site should have one by morning), crediting Peter Malinauskas’s Labor government with an extraordinary two-party lead of 67-33. This suggests a 12.5% swing which, if uniform, would reduce the Liberals to five seats out of 47. Labor is at 48% on the primary vote, up from 40.0% at the March 2022 election; Liberals are on 21%, down from 35.7%; the Greens are on 14%, up from 9.1%; and One Nation are on 7%, up from 2.6% from 19 seats contested. The poll was conducted May 15 to 28 from a sample of 903. UPDATE: The Advertiser’s report here.

UPDATE 2: Further results in the Sunday Mail show Malinauskas with 70% approval, 18% disapproval and a 72-14 lead over Liberal leader Vincent Tarzia as preferred premier, with Tarzia on 22% approval and 31% disapproval.

Further developments ahead of the state election scheduled for March 21 next year, most involving the cross-bench, the major parties having been diverted over recent months by the federal election:

• Labor last week announced candidates for five seats: James Agness, state government housing policy adviser, in the safe Gawler-based seat of Light, which is being vacated with incumbent Tony Piccolo’s bid to win the neighbouring seat of Ngadjuri from the Liberals; Aria Bulkus, solicitor and daughter of Hawke-Keating government minister Nick Bolkus, in Colton, which Matt Cowdrey holds for the Liberals on a post-redistribution margin of 5.0%; “senior lawyer” Alice Rolls in Unley, which has a Liberal margin of 2.6%, and will be vacated at the election with the retirement of David Pisoni; Marisa Bell, Onkaparinga councillor, intensive care nurse and recent federal candidate for Mayo, in Heysen (held for the Liberals by Josh Teague on a margin of 2.3%); and Toby Priest, St Thomas School teacher and Immanuel College boarding supervisor, in Morphett (held for the Liberals by Stephen Patterson on a margin of 4.6%).

• Greens co-leader Tammy Franks quit the party in mid-May and said she would serve out her term as an independent. Franks did not contest the party’s preselection last year, and now says she made way for parties motivated by “ambition and self-interest” – presumably referring to Adelaide Hills deputy mayor Melanie Selwood, who was chosen to head the party’s upper house ticket. Franks said at the time she would retire at the election, but now says she will consider running. A finding against Franks by the party’s misconduct committee was subsequently leaked to the media.

• A week later, One Nation’s sole member, Sarah Game, quit the party citing issues with “the way the One Nation brand is perceived” and saying she wished to advocate for all “regardless of their heritage or religious beliefs” (this week she applied to register the party name “Sarah Game Fair Go for Australians”). Pauline Hanson and her chief-of-staff, James Ashby, retorted that this came a week after Game’s mother, Jennifer Game, was denied her ambition to lead the party’s upper house ticket. The elder Game had been lined up to lead the ticket at the 2022 election, but instead opted for the first of two unsuccessful runs for the Senate, while her then little-known daughter won the state seat in her stead.

• Former Liberal MLC Jing Lee announced in May she would contest the election under the Jing Lee Better Community banner. Lee quit the party in January ahead of an anticipated preselection defeat, support for her reportedly having tanked after she unexpectedly failed to support changes to abortion laws.

Tasmanian election minus one month

A month to the day before the snap election, and a week before the closure of nominations, a quick look at how the five Tasmanian election races are shaping up.

There is much to report from Tasmania, as all concerned scramble to get candidates in position for an election no one saw coming. After winning three seats last year and promptly falling to pieces, the Jacqui Lambie Network will not contest the election, while One Nation is not registered at state level. Stepping into the breach to some extent are the Nationals, who are placing themselves at odds with both major parties by opposing the AFL stadium deal, and have recruited two of the three incumbents who were elected under the JLN banner. I’m going to hold off publishing an election guide until the announcement of nominations on Friday week gives me all the information I require. For now, a summary of each of the five contests:

Bass. With recently defeated federal member Bridget Archer joining incumbents Michael Ferguson, Rob Fairs and Simon Wood, the Liberals have a fierce internal contest for their three seats with no guarantee that it won’t be reduced to two. Labor faces a very different situation, with Michelle O’Byrne’s retirement leaving Janie Finlay the only defending incumbent. Other candidates are yet to be announced. Greens incumbent Cecily Rosol is presumably well placed. Rebekah Pentland is the only one of three Jacqui Lambie Network members from 2024 who will seek re-election as an independent rather than with the Nationals, who will presumably field a candidate of their own.

Braddon. Here the Liberal ticket is even more crowded, with two former federal members joining a trio of incumbents that includes Premier Jeremy Rockliff together with Roger Jaensch and Felix Ellis. One is Gavin Pearce, who declined to recontest the federal seat of Braddon at the May election, at which former Senator Anne Urquhart gained it for Labor. The other is Stephen Parry, who served in the Senate from 2005 until the Section 44 crisis in 2017, and last month ran unsuccessfully for the upper house seat of Montgomery. Labor has two defending incumbents, Shane Broad and Anita Dow, and one further candidate announced in Central Coast councillor Amanda Diprose, whose 2.1% vote share at the 2024 election was the fourth highest out of seven Labor candidates. Miriam Beswick is running for the Nationals after winning a seat for the Jacqui Lambie Network in 2024 and parting company with the party shortly afterwards (together with Bass member Rebekah Pentland). Braddon is the only division currently unrepresented by the Greens, whose lead candidate is environmental lawyer Vanessa Bleyer.

Clark. Liberal (Simon Behrakis and Madeleine Ogilvie), Labor (Ella Haddad and Josh Willie) and the Greens (Vica Bayley and Helen Burnet) each have two defending incumbents. The two majors have each announced a third candidate: the Liberals have Marcus Vermey, a butcher from Sandy Bay who did well to poll 5.5% in 2024, while Labor has Luke Martin, an adviser to Dean Winter and former Glenorchy alderman. Kristie Johnston is seeking re-election as an independent, and a further high-profile independent has emerged in Elise Archer, who held a seat for the Liberals from 2010 to 2023 and served as Attorney-General under three Premiers (each of whom received unflattering assessments from her in text messages that were leaked to the media, precipitating her departure from parliament).

Franklin. The main development here is the candidacy of independent Peter George, who polled 21.7% as a candidate at the federal election with support from Climate 200, outpolling the Liberals and reaching the final preference count. This may complicate matters for the seat’s existing independent, estranged former Labor leader David O’Byrne. The Liberals have three defending incumbents in Jacquie Petrusma, Eric Abetz and Nic Street; Labor two with party leader Dean Winter and Meg Brown, who will be joined on the ticket by Unions Tasmania secretary Jess Munday, fresh from a surprise defeat in the preselection to fill Anne Urquhart’s Senate vacancy. Another party leader, Rosalie Woodruff, is presumably well placed to defend the Greens’ seat.

Lyons. Guy Barnett, Mark Shelton and Jane Howlett are seeking re-election for the Liberals. Labor has two incumbents in Jen Butler and Casey Farrell, but the latter has only been in parliament since March, when he won the recount to fill the vacancy created by Rebecca White’s successful move to the federal seat in May. The Mercury reports a Labor ticket to be announced today will include Brian Mitchell, who held the federal seat from 2016 until he agreed to make way for White. Incumbent Tabatha Badger is defending the Greens’ seat. Andrew Jenner, who was the only one of the three Jacqui Lambie Network members to remain with the party after its fracture in August 2024, will presumably be rubber-stamped as a Nationals candidate at a preselection on Saturday. Also seeking Nationals preselection is John Tucker, who held a seat as a Liberal from 2018 to 2023 and then as an independent until his defeat at the March 2024 election.

Polls: JWS Research post-election and Lowy Institute on foreign affairs (open thread)

Some post-election findings on how people voted and why, and the Lowy Institute’s annual survey on how Australians perceive foreign affairs.

JWS Research has published a post-federal election survey report along the same lines of a similar effort after the 2022 election, conducted May 6 to 8 from a sample of 1000. Key findings:

• Labor did distinctly better among those who voted early (encompassing postal as well as pre-poll voters), with 42% of those aged 65 and over but only 20% of those aged 18 to 34 reporting having voted more than a week out from election day, with a respective 25% and 47% voting on election day itself.

• Labor did much better among late deciders: 26% of Coalition voters said they always voted that way with only 10% saying they decided on the day they voted, whereas the respective figures for Labor voters were 17% and 16%. Of those who decided in the final week of the campaign, 39% voted Labor and 23% Coalition, compared with 38% and 30% in 2022.

• Forty-three per cent reported being at least party guided by how-to-vote cards (47% of Labor voters, 50% of Coalition and 32% of Greens), down from 49% in 2022, with 56% saying they made up their own mind (52% Coalition, 49% Labor and 65% Greens), up from 49%.

• Forty-nine per cent of Labor voters identified a favourable view of the party as the main motivation for their choice, followed by 23% for the leader, 18% for policies or issues and 7% for the local candidate. Among Coalition voters, 56% named the party, 20% policies or issues, 13% the local candidate and only 9% the leader.

• Eighty-three per cent found it easy to fill the lower house ballot paper compared with 8% for difficult, while 61% rated Senate voting easy and 22% difficult.

• Sixty-three per cent reckoned the election campaign important, up from 56% in 2022, compared with 16% for not important, down from 15%.

• Labor’s campaign was rated more positively than the Coalition measure on 11 of 12 measures, the exception being “a source of false/misleading information”, for which both scored 30%. The two most emphatic results both related to Trumpet of Patriots, whose campaign was rated “annoying” by 57% and a source of false/misleading information by 40%.

The Lowy Institute has published the full report of its annual survey of attitudes to foreign policy, conducted from March 3 to 16 from a sample of 2117. A taster was provided early in the election campaign in the shape of a question on which leader would be more competent at handling foreign policy, on which Anthony Albanese led Peter Dutton 41% to 29%.

The survey finds trust in the United States to act responsibly in the world at 36%, down 20 points on last year and by far the worst result going back to 2006 (the previous low being 51% in the last year if the first Trump presidency). Eighty per cent nonetheless continue to hold that the US alliance is important to Australia’s security, down three on last year; 57% say Australia should remain close to the US rather than distance itself, down seven, and 63% hold that the US would come to Australia’s aid if it were attacked. Support for the AUKUS nuclear submarines plan was effectively unchanged on last year, with 67% in favour and 32% opposed. While an even 49% supported and opposed Trump’s demands that US allies spend more on defence, opinion of seven other keynote Trump policies was negative, with mass deportations of undocumented immigrants at the low end (42% support, 56% oppose) and tariffs (18% support, 81% oppose) and pressuring Denmark over Greenland (10% support, 89% oppose) rating worst.

A regular question on whether China should be viewed more as an economic partner than a security threat produced a net positive result for the first time since 2020, with respective results of 50% and 47%. Nonetheless, 69% believed China will become a military threat to Australia in the next 20 years, down two from last year, 56% believed it would be the most powerful country in ten, compared with 27% holding out for the United States. An even 45% considered Trump and Xi Jinping the “more reliable partner for Australia”. Japan scored highest out of eight major countries as trusted to act responsibly in the world, at 90%, with China on 20% and Russia 11%. A “confidence in world leaders” question had the leaders of Australia, New Zealand, France, Japan, the United Kingdom and Ukraine rated positively by between 59% and 63%; Peter Dutton doing a good deal worse at 41% and 52%; and only Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un rating worse than Donald Trump.

Tasmanian election: July 19

Following last week’s no confidence motion in Premier Jeremy Rockliff, Tasmania’s Governor grants the state’s second election in 15 months.

Tasmania faces its second state election in 15 months after Governor Barbara Baker today granted the dissolution and July 19 election requested by Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff after his defeat last week in a parliamentary no-confidence motion. Rockliff made his request yesterday, but was told by Baker she would spend the next few days considering all options. However, it appears she heard enough when Labor leader Dean Winter ruled out trying to form a new government, the announcement of the fresh election being made late this afternoon. I will now set to work on getting a guide to the election place as quick as humanly possible, and will as usual be publishing live results and projections on election night and beyond.

The election held in March last year, which was likewise held early in a vain bid by Rockliff to strengthen his position in parliament, returned 14 Liberal, ten Labor, five Greens, three Jacqui Lambie Network and three independent members, with the Liberals forming a minority government after obtaining guarantees from the JLN members (two of whom quit the party in very short order) and more qualified support from two of the independents. The most contentious issue in Tasmanian politics of recent times has been a plan to contribute $615 million to construction of a stadium presently budgeted at $945 million that will house a new AFL team to enter the competition in 2028. As dearly as Tasmanians would love their own team in the competition, there is a distinctive sense that the state is being fleeced by a rapacious AFL and that the imposition is more than the state can afford. However, the plan has the support of both major parties, prompting a sense within Labor that cross-benchers were stealing their thunder in leading the charge against the government on the issue.

When Treasurer Guy Barnett foreshadowed privatisations in bringing down a budget last week that forecast deficit and debt blowouts, Labor leader Dean Winter saw an opportunity to deal the party back in the game by moving a no confidence motion against Rockliff and challenging the cross-benchers to support it. As well as the state of the budget, Labor was also able to invoke the government’s disastrous failure to provide adequate berthing facilities for new Bass Strait ferries operating out of Devonport, prompting the resignation of Treasurer Michael Ferguson last October. Ignoring Rockliff’s threats of a fresh election, the Greens and two independents lent the motion their support, and it duly carried by a single vote last Thursday.

There were suggestions that Winter aimed to do no more than claim the scalp of Rockliff as Premier, but the Liberals have been resolute in their determination to maintain him as leader, in the teeth of criticism from the business community and conservative Liberal Senator Jonathan Duniam. Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports a view that the party would do better at a prompt election with Rockliff than by “waiting for the next crisis and facing voters with a less popular alternative, such as Michael Ferguson”. For his part, Winter has rejected the notion of Labor taking over without an election in a government that would rely on the support of the Greens.

Tasmania’s Hare-Clark system involves five electoral divisions (the same ones that apply at federal level) electing seven members each (increased from five at the 2024 election), making it difficult for either major party to score a majority. The Greens won five seats last year, balancing a failure in the Braddon division by winning two seats in Clark. Jacqui Lambie says her party will not contest the election, and unless the members have done a better job ingratiating themselves locally than I am crediting them with, their seats in Bass, Braddon and Lyons (the latter being the only one remaining with the party) presumably represent low-hanging fruit for other parties. Presumably better placed are Kristie Johnston (Clark), David O’Byrne (Franklin) and Craig Garland (Braddon), who were elected as independents in 2024.

The most recent poll from the state, conducted by EMRS from May 13 to 17, had Labor in its strongest position since it last held office in 2010, albeit that this amounted to only 31% of the vote, compared with 29.0% last March. The Liberals were down from 36.7% to 29%, with the Greens holding steady on 14% compared with 13.9%. The poll continued to gauge support for the Jacqui Lambie Network, who were on 6%. Labor presumably has high hopes of improving off its low base of two seats in each of the five divisions, particularly after its 9.0% swing in the state at the federal election. However, it faces a major challenge in winning enough seats to meet its own pre-condition of governing without the support of the Greens, and with the Liberals also on the downswing after 11 years in government, there is a strong possibility that the election will fail in its presumed goal of breaking the parliamentary deadlock.

Page 2 of 586
1 2 3 … 586