US presidential election minus nine weeks

Kamala Harris’ win probability dropping in Nate Silver’s model. Also covered: UK polls since the election, still no new PM in France after the election and two German state elections.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The US presidential election is on November 5. In Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Kamala Harris has a 48.9-45.5 lead over Donald Trump. In my article for The Conversation last Friday, Harris led by 48.8-45.0. The next important US event is the debate between Harris and Trump next Tuesday (Wednesday at 11am AEST).

It is the Electoral College, not the national popular vote, that is decisive in presidential elections. The Electoral College is expected to be biased to Trump relative to the popular vote, with Harris needing at least a two-point popular vote win in Silver’s model to be the Electoral College favourite.

Harris’ probability of winning the Electoral College in Silver’s model has dropped from 47% last Friday to 42%, with Trump now the favourite at a 58% chance to win. Trump’s win probability has increased every day in this model since August 27, and he’s now at his highest win probability since July 30. Current polling in the most important swing state (Pennsylvania, with 19 electoral votes) only gives Harris a one-point lead, and the model expects further declines for Harris as her convention bounce fades.

UK: no honeymoon for Starmer and Labour after election

At the July 4 UK general election, Labour won a thumping victory with 411 of the 650 House of Commons seats, to 121 Conservatives and 72 Liberal Democrats. This occurred despite Labour winning just 33.7% of the vote, to 23.7% for the Conservatives, 14.3% Reform (but only five seats), 12.2% Lib Dems and 6.7% Greens (four seats).

A new government would normally expect a polling honeymoon, but not this one. There haven’t been many voting intention polls since the election, but a late August BMG poll gave Labour just a 30-26 over the Conservatives with 19% for Reform. A late August More in Common poll gave PM Keir Starmer a net -16 approval rating, while a mid-August Opinium poll had Starmer at -6 after their first poll after the election gave him a +18 net approval. I believe the economic messages from Labour that there’s more pain ahead for the UK are backfiring.

France: still no PM two months after election

The French president (Emmanuel Macron) is the most important French politician, but the system still requires a PM who has the confidence of the lower house of parliament. At snap parliamentary elections that Macron called for June 30 and July 7, the left-wing NFP alliance won 180 of the 577 seats, Macron’s Ensemble 159, the far-right National Rally and allies 142 and the conservative Republicans 39.

While without a majority before the election, Ensemble was in a far better position with 245 seats. On July 23, the NFP agreed on a PM candidate, Lucie Castets, but Macron has no interest in appointing her. A PM needs to be appointed by October 1, the deadline to submit a draft 2025 budget.

Far-right gains at two German state elections

German state elections occurred in Thuringia and Saxony last Sunday. Proportional representation with a 5% threshold was used. In Thuringia, the far-right AfD won 32 of the 88 seats (up ten since 2019), the conservative CDU 23 (up two), the economically left but socially conservative BSW 15 (new), the Left 12 (down 17) and the centre-left SPD six (down two). The Greens and pro-business FDP fell below the 5% threshold and were wiped out.

In Saxony, the CDU won 42 of the 120 seats (down three), the AfD 41 (up three), the BSW 15 (new), the SPD nine (down one), the Greens six (down six) and the Left six (down eight). In Thuringia, the AfD is well short of the 45 seats needed for a majority, and the most likely outcome is a non-AfD government. A year out from the next federal German election, the polls are grim for the current governing coalition of the SPD, Greens and FDP.

Northern Territory election endgame

Counting almost complete for the Northern Territory election, where the Country Liberals appear likely to hold 17 seats out of 25.

Click here for full display of Northern Territory election results.

Saturday

With the NTEC’s publication of the full preference distributions, the results can be considered finalised. In Fannie Bay, the surprise success of the CLP in staying ahead of the Greens at the final count had nothing to do with independent Leonard May, who actually delivered more preferences to the Greens than the CLP, and everything to do with the fact that only around two-thirds of Labor’s preferences went to the Greens ahead of the CLP. The Greens’ win in Nightcliff resulted from three-quarters of a substantial independent vote flowing to them, together with only slightly less than half of the transfer when the CLP was excluded.

Wednesday 4pm

Another preference count boilover, with a fresh Labor-versus-Greens two-candidate count in former Labor leader Natasha Fyles’ seat of Nightcliff showing the Greens with a seemingly insurmountable lead of 2242 to 2200. This means the Greens, whose luck appeared to desert them in Fannie Bay, will win a seat in parliament after all, provided their candidate Kat McNamara makes the final count — which she apparently will, because the NTEC relates it also conducted a three-way count between Fyles, McNamara and the CLP. The strength of the preference flow to the Greens is the second such surprise (to me at least) to emerge from late counting, one giving the Greens a (seemingly) unexpected victory and the other an unexpected defeat. The split was 63.1-36.9 in the Greens’ favour, which is inclusive of 1055 CLP and 957 independent votes. I have replaced my preference flow estimates with the exact figures on my results page, but the results from the fresh count are not in the media feed at this stage.

Tuesday evening

I have taken my eye off the ball for the count in the Northern Territory, where the Country Liberal Party’s position strengthened still further with the apparent likelihood that they will take a seventeenth seat in Fannie Bay, a Darwin seat that Labor has held since 1995. The surprise lay in the fact that a fresh two-candidate preferred count between the Country Liberal candidate Laurie Zio and Greens candidate Suki Dorras-Walker showed a surprisingly weak flow of Labor preferences to the latter, seemingly scotching the party’s hopes of winning its first ever territory seat (though more on an alternative possibility shortly). Based on the normal behaviour of preference flows, it had hitherto seemed likely that the result would be decided by which out of Dorras-Walker and Labor incumbent Brent Potter made the final count. A win for the latter is mathematically possible, but with few if any votes yet to be counted, he would need the distribution of independent Leonard May’s 185 votes to close a gap against the Greens of 1327 to 1268, which seems most unlikely. It could otherwise be presumed that Greens preferences would then push him ahead of the CLP.

There is also the technical possibility of a late boilover in one of only five seats that appear likely to remain with Labor, that being former leader Natasha Fyles’ seat of Nightcliff. The alternative scenario in this case involves a win for Greens candidate Kat McNamara, who has polled 21.9% to the Country Liberals’ 23.8% and Fyles’ 32.8%. If McNamara can close the gap with the Country Liberals, it’s conceivable that enough CLP preferences will flow to her to win her the seat. My own results page for the seat has Fyles well ahead of McNamara in a two-candidate contest based on estimated preference splits of 65-35 to Labor among CLP votes, 70-30 to the Greens among those for a strongly performing progressive independent, and 50-50 for a minor independent. The first of these in particular would need to be well off the mark to turn the result. Antony Green reports the preferences of the two independent candidates will be counted today to determine if the Greens will indeed make the final count, presumably to be followed by a Labor-versus-Greens count if so.

NSW by-elections: Epping, Hornsby, Pittwater

Two long-anticipated state by-elections in New South Wales set to be joined by a rather less expected third.

There are now three state by-elections looming for blue-ribbon Liberal seats in Sydney, that latest arising after Pittwater MP Rory Amon promptly resigned from parliament after being charged with child sex offences on Friday. Michael Koziol of the Sydney Morning Herald reports it is “likely to be scheduled alongside other by-elections on October 19”, and that “most Liberals were resigned to losing the seat” – presumably to teal independent Jacqui Scruby, who came within 0.7% of winning the seat when Amon succeeded Rob Stokes at the 2023 election.

Megan Gorrey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports that Stokes has thrown his support behind Northern Beaches deputy mayor Georgia Ryburn, who was touted in a report last week as a possible challenger to teal independent Sophie Scamps in the federal seat of Mackellar, though she has not publicly identified herself as a contender in either case. Another name to have emerged is Michael Gencher, a council colleague of Ryburn’s and fellow victim of the party’s nominations fiasco. Others are familiar from the contest to succeed Stokes before the last election: Natasha Maclaren-Jones, an upper house member who withdrew as it became apparent she lacked sufficient support; and Claire Longley, EY consultant and daughter of former member Jim Longley, who was refused an exemption from a party rule barring nominees who had not been financial members for six months. (UPDATE: The Manly Daily reports Ryburn, Longley, Gencher and another Northern Beaches councillor, Bianca Crvelin, have nominated for Liberal preselection, while the Sydney Morning Herald reports Jacqui Scruby has confirmed she will run again).

As noted in a previous post, the other two by-elections will be held to replace Dominic Perrottet in Epping, where the Liberals have preselected Monica Tudehope, former policy director to Perrottet and daughter of Damien Tudehope, a former member for the seat who now leads the party in the Legislatve Council; and Matt Kean in Hornsby, where the new Liberal candidate is Corrs Chambers Westgarth lawyer James Wallace. Labor reduced the margins at the 2022 election to 4.8% in Epping with a 6.5% swing, and to 8.0% in Hornsby with an 8.8% swing.

Polls: RedBridge Group and Roy Morgan (open thread)

Two polls showing Labor leading 50.5-49.5, one with further results on visas for Palestinians, gambling ads and AUKUS.

Two new federal polls have emerged in the past few days, both showing Labor leading 50.5-49.5 on two-party preferred. RedBridge Group’s results are an improvement for Labor on their last poll in mid-July, which had the Coalition leading 51.5-48.5. The primary votes are Labor 33% (up one), Coalition 38% (down three) and Greens 12% (up one). The accompanying release has results to an array of further questions, including a finding that 32% support visas for Palestinians fleeing Gaza, with 44% opposed; and 72% support for a total ban on online gambling advertising, with 16% opposed; and a mixed bag of favourable and neutral results on AUKUS. The poll was conducted August 20 to 27 from a sample of 2017.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor down one on the primary vote to 30.5%, the Coalition down two to 37.5%, the Greens steady at 13% and One Nation up two to 6%. The 50.5-49.5 two-party result compares with a 51-49 Coalition lead last week. The two-party result based on 2022 election preference flows has the Labor lead at 51-49, after a 50-50 result last time. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1697.

Newspoll: 50-50 (open thread)

Both leaders down on net approval in the latest Newspoll, the Coalition only slightly favoured over Labor on inflation, and little change on voting intention.

The Australian reports that Newspoll has a tied result on two-party preferred, unchanged on three weeks ago. The primary votes are Labor 32% (steady), Coalition 38% (down one), Greens 12% (steady) and One Nation 7% (up one). Anthony Albanese is down two on approval to 41% and up three on disapproval to 54%, his equal worst net result as Prime Minister, while Peter Dutton is down one to 39% and up two to 52%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 46-39 to 45-37. The poll also finds “only a quarter” connsider inflation would be lower under the Coalition, with 18% believing it would be higher and 41% opting for neither. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1263.

Donation drive

Time to dig deep-ish for the Poll Bludger’s bi-monthly appeal for contributions, which can be done through the “become a supporter” buttons at the top of the site and the bottom of each post. This follows a month in which I’ve devoted many long hours to the site, thanks to the Northern Territory election and its accompanying election guide and live results feature, without to this point having a whole lot to show for it on the donations front. Many more long hours will be put in over the coming weeks and months to bring you such delights as a comprehensive seat-by-seat guide to the October 26 Queensland state election, plus a reupholstered and better-than-ever live results facility featuring an innovative new approach to projecting three-party contests; ditto for the Australian Capital Territory election a week earlier; and an expanded BludgerTrack that will feature the return of state-level polling trends.

US presidential election minus 10 weeks

Soft polling from the crucial state of Pennsylvania costs Kamala Harris her favourite status in Nate Silver’s forecast model, though The Economist has her maintaining the edge.

Polling from the last few days offers some evidence that Kamala Harris is enjoying a modest post-convention bounce, with Nate Silver’s aggregate having her lead on the national popular vote out from 2.3 points to 3.8 points. However, Harris has taken a turn for the worse on Silver’s forecast model, on which Donald Trump is now rated a 52.4% chance of winning with Harris on 47.3%, restoring him to a marginal favouritism he lost at the start of the month. This is entirely down to state-level polling from Pennsylvania, where “it’s been a while since we’ve seen a poll showing her ahead”. However, Harris remains a 56-44 favourite in The Economist’s model, which has hitherto tracked Silver’s very closely. Adrian Beaumont has more at The Conversation.

Adrian Beaumont update at 2:08pm William’s link above referred to an article I published on Sunday.  I’ve done another US article for The Conversation today which incorporates Nate Silver’s latest forecast.

YouGov: 50-50 (open thread)

Yet another poll showing a lineball result on two-party preferred, plus a summary of recent preselection and other developments.

YouGov has a new federal poll out showing a tie on two-party preferred, after Labor led 51-49 in the last such poll a month ago. Rounding clearly had something to do with the shift, because Labor is actually up a point on the primary vote to 32% with the Coalition down one to 37%, with the Greens steady on 13% and One Nation up one to 8%. Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 41% and steady on disapproval 52%, with Peter Dutton steady on 42% and up one to 47%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is 43-38, in from 45-37 last time. The poll was conducted Friday to Wednesday from a sample of 1543.

In other developments:

• Having exhausted every avenue to challenge his preselection defeat, all the way to the Supreme Court, right-wing Queensland Senator Gerard Rennick has quit the Liberal Party and announced he will run at the next election under the banner of the Gerard Rennick People First party. The Australian points out that Rennick has “almost 320,000 followers on Facebook and Twitter”.

• Graham Perrett, who has held the Brisbane seat of Moreton for Labor since 2007, has announced he will retire at the next election. Perrett had hitherto resisted pressure to make way for Julie-Ann Campbell, Left faction colleague and the party’s state secretary, as the Queensland branch struggled to meet its affirmative action quota. A source quoted by Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review said Campbell had the numbers to win a contested preselection, and that Perrett’s backers in the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union had encouraged him to withdraw.

• The Liberals have chosen three candidates for seats in Perth: grains farmer Mic Fels in Swan, Gosnells councillor David Goode in Hasluck, and lawyer and former party staffer Sean Ayres in Burt. Jake Dietsch of The West Australian reports Fels won the party vote in Swan by 38 to 34 ahead of Nick Marvin, former chief executive of the Perth Wildcats basketball and Western Force rugby league clubs.

• Alexandra Smith of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the Liberals are hoping to enlist Northern Beaches deputy mayor Georgia Ryburn, who will shortly lose her seat on council due to the party’s nominations fiasco, to take on teal independent Sophie Scamps in Mackellar.

• Queensland Opposition Leader David Crisafulli has announced that the Liberal National Party will restore optional preferential voting in the seemingly likely event that it wins the October 26 state election. Optional preferential voting was introduced by one Labor government in 1992, and unexpectedly abolished by another in 2016.

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