US presidential election minus six weeks

Kamala Harris a slight favourite to win in Nate Silver’s model. Also covered: two Canadian by-elections, a dreadful poll for Keir Starmer, France’s new Prime Minister, a German state election and a socialist wins in Sri Lanka.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The US presidential election is on November 5. In Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Kamala Harris has a 49.0-46.3 lead over Donald Trump (49.2-46.2 in my previous US election article for The Conversation on Monday). In presidential elections, the Electoral College is decisive, not the national popular vote. Harris has at least a one-point lead in enough states to win the Electoral College by a 276-262 margin.

In Silver’s model, Harris has a 55% chance to win the Electoral College, up from 54% on Monday. She has been the favourite since last Friday after falling to a 35% win probability on September 9. Previously there had been a large gap between Silver’s and FiveThirtyEight’s models, with Harris favoured more at FiveThirtyEight. But this gap has nearly vanished, with Harris now a 56% win probability at FiveThirtyEight.

Monday’s Conversation article also covered elections for the US House of Representatives and Senate that will be held concurrently with the presidential election. If Harris wins, Democrats have a good chance to regain control of the House, but Republicans are likely to gain Senate control. Democrats are defending seats in three states Trump won easily in 2016 and 2020 and the Senate system favours Republicans owing to two senators per state.

Canada looking bleak for Liberals

Two Canadian federal by-elections occurred on September 16. In LaSalle-Émard-Verdun in Quebec, 91 candidates stood as a protest against first-past-the-post, with most receiving very few votes. The left-wing separatist Quebec Bloc gained from the centre-left Liberals, winning by 28.0-27.2 with 26.1% for the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) and 11.6% for the Conservatives. At the 2021 federal election, results in this seat were 42.9% Liberal, 22.1% Quebec Bloc, 19.4% NDP and 7.5% Conservatives.

At the by-election in Elmwood-Transcona in Manitoba, the NDP retained against the Conservatives, but by a much reduced margin. The NDP defeated the Conservatives by 48.1-44.1 with 4.8% for the Liberals. In 2021, the NDP won this seat by 49.7-28.1 with 14.7% for the Liberals.

The next Canadian federal election is due by October 2025. FPTP will be used to elect all 343 seats, with 172 needed for a majority. The CBC poll tracker gives the Conservatives 42.9%, the Liberals 24.1%, the NDP 17.6% and the Quebec Bloc 7.8% (33.5% in Quebec). This would be a Conservative landslide with the seat projection giving them 218 seats, the Liberals 63, the Quebec Bloc 39 and the NDP 21. The Liberals have governed since they won the October 2015 election, though they were reduced to a minority government after the 2019 election.

UK, France, Germany and Sri Lanka

In my previous article in early September, I covered the lack of a honeymoon for UK Labour and PM Keir Starmer after winning the July 4 general election. In an Opinium poll taken last week, Starmer’s net approval had plunged 45 points since the first post-election Opinium poll in mid-July. His net approval is now -26, one point lower than for former Conservative PM Rishi Sunak.

At snap French parliamentary elections in early July, the left-wing NFP alliance won 180 of the 577 seats, President Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble 159, the far-right National Rally and allies 142 and the conservative Republicans 39. On September 5, Macron appointed the conservative Michel Barnier as his new PM. Last Saturday, Barnier and Macron announced a new cabinet composed of mostly conservative ministers. The NFP is hostile to the new government, so its survival depends on National Rally abstaining on confidence motions.

I previously covered September 1 German state elections in Thuringia and Saxony where the far-right AfD made gains. At last Sunday’s state election in Brandenburg, the centre-left SPD won 32 of the 88 seats (up seven since 2019), the AfD 30 (up seven), the economically left but socially conservative BSW 14 (new) and the conservative CDU 12 (down three). The Greens and Left had won ten seats each in 2019, but were wiped out as neither cleared the 5% threshold.

At last Saturday’s Sri Lankan presidential election, the socialist candidate of the National People’s Power party defeated the establishment candidate by 55.9-44.1 after preferences. The NPP had won just 3.2% in 2019.

Polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)

Not much change on voting intention from two regular polls, though one records slight improvement in Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor down one on the primary vote to 29%, the Coalition steady on 35%, the Greens down one to 12% and One Nation steady on 8%, with an unchanged 5% undecided. The pollster’s 2PP+ result has the Coalition leading 48-47 after an even 48-48 last time, with the balance undecided. The poll includes Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which find Anthony Albanese up two on approval to 42% and down three on disapproval to 47%, while Peter Dutton is steady on 42% and up one to 42%.

A monthly read of the national mood has a steady 52% rating the country on the wrong track with right direction up two to 31%. Further questions focus on social media, with 48% rating it too weakly regulated compared with 8% for too tough and 43% for about right; 67% favouring a lower age limit for access with only 17% opposed; and 71% favouring criminalising doxxing (“the public release of personally identifiable data with malicious intent”), with 12% opposed.

Prompted by an explanation of the proposal, 51% supported the government’s proposed help-to-buy shared equity housing scheme with 18% opposed; 48% felt the Coalition and the Greens should pass the government’s housing and rental reforms “and argue for their own policies at the next election”, while 22% preferred “they should block these housing reforms and continue to argue for their policies now”. The poll was conducted last Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1117.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll records no change on two-party preferred, with Labor leading 50.5-49.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 52-48 on preference flows from 2022. On the primary vote, Labor is up one-and-a-half to 32%, the Coalition is steady on 37.5%, the Greens are steady on 12.5% and One Nation is down half to 5%. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1662.

Newspoll: 50-50 (open thread)

The latest Newspoll much the same as the last, as state-level results from Resolve Strategic point to a large drop in the Labor primary vote in Western Australia and South Australia.

The Australian reports the three-weekly Newspoll has a tie on two-party preferred, unchanged no last time, from primary votes of Labor 31% (down one), Coalition 38%, Greens 13% (up one) and One Nation 6% (steady). Anthony Albanese is up two on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 51%, while Peter Dutton is down two to 37% and steady at 52%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 46-37, compared with 45-37 last time. Nothing yet on sample size and field work dates that I can see (UPDATE: Last Monday to Friday from a sample of 1249).

Nine Newspapers also has the quarterly Resolve Strategic aggregates, which are of interest insofar as they include results for Western Australia and South Australia accumulated over three monthly polls, which unlike the larger states are not published with each monthly poll. In Western Australia, the results have Labor down eight points on the 2022 election to 29% but the Coalition steady on 35%, with the Greens up three to 16%. In South Australia, Labor is down seven to 28%, the Coalition is steady at 36% and the Greens are up one to 14%.

Newspoll: 55-45 to LNP in Queensland

Five weeks out from the Queensland election, further indications of a looming change of government.

The Australian has greeted the unofficial start of the campaign period for the October 26 Queensland state election with a Newspoll result that’s less bad for Labor than some of its polling this year, but still leaves little doubt about the likely result. The LNP is credited with a two-party lead of 55-45, out from 54-46 at the last such poll in March, although primary votes are little changed at Labor 30% (steady), LNP 42% (steady), Greens 12% (down one) and One Nation 8% (steady). Steven Miles is up three on approval to 41% and up two on disapproval to 51%, while David Crisafulli is up two to 49% and up four to 37%. Crisafulli leads 46-39 as preferred premier, compared with 43-37 in March. The poll was conducted last Thursday to Wednesday from a sample of 1047.

YouGov: 50-50 (open thread)

Labor maintains level pegging in the latest YouGov poll despite a drop on the primary vote and a further weakening in Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings.

YouGov seems to be back in its three-weekly schedule of federal polling, the latest result showing no change on a tied two-party vote despite movement in the Coalition’s favour on the primary: specifically, Labor is down two points to 30% and the Coalition is up two to 39%. The two-party stasis is presumably down to rounding plus the effect on preferences of a one-point increase for the Greens to 14% and a one-point drop for One Nation to 7%. Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings have taken a dive, his approval down five to 36% and disapproval up six to 58%, while Peter Dutton is up two to 40% and down three to 50%. Albanese still has his nose in front as preferred prime minister, in from 43-38 to 42-39. The poll was conducted Friday to Thursday from a sample of 1619.

US presidential election minus seven weeks

Still anyone’s guess as to who will occupy the White House come February, but it does seem that last week’s debate has moved the dial towards Kamala Harris.

Evidence is starting to emerge of a strengthening in Kamala Harris’s position in the wake of last week’s debate, and while this hardly amounts to a paradigm shift in terms of the popular vote – after rounding to whole numbers, The Economist’s poll aggregate records no change from Harris’s 50-46 lead when the debate was held on September 10 – it’s been enough to move forecast models substantially in her favour. Nate Silver’s model is the most striking case in point, with Trump’s win probability falling from 59.7% to 52.0% just over the past few days, having peaked at 64.4% the day before the debate. After bouncing around 52-48 for a couple of weeks, The Economist’s probability reading now has Harris leading 57-43. FiveThirtyEight’s model remains the most bullish for the Democrats, putting Harris’s win probability at 63%. More from Adrian Beaumont at The Conversation.

Federal polls: Freshwater Strategy and Roy Morgan (open thread)

Two new poll results, one very grim for federal Labor, the other merely mediocre.

Two new federal poll results, one of which I reckon to be Labor’s equal worst result of the term, together with a Roy Morgan poll from early June:

• The latest monthly result from Freshwater Strategy for the Financial Review has the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, out from 51-49 a month ago, from primary votes of Labor 30% (down two), Coalition 42% (up one), Greens 12% (steady). Anthony Albanese is down a point on approval to 34% and up four on disapproval to 49%, while Peter Dutton is down three to 34% and down two to 38%, with Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister unchanged at 45-41. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1057.

• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor with a two-party lead of 50.5-49-5 on respondent-allocated preferences, from primary votes of Labor 30.5% (up half), Coalition 37.5% (up one), Greens 12.5% (down two) and One Nation 5.5% (down half). The two-party measure based on 2022 election preference flows has Labor’s lead unchanged at 52-48, which is a little better for Labor than I would expect based on the reported primary votes. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1634.

Friday miscellany: redistributions and preselections (open thread)

New South Wales federal boundaries confirmed, post-redistribution musical chairs for the Victorian Liberals, and contenders like up for the Labor preselections to replace Bill Shorten and Brendan O’Connor.

It’s been a busy week on Poll Bludger, which a new thread on the US election joining posts on state polls in Victoria, Western Australia and Queensland. Meanwhile at federal level:

• The federal redistribution for New South Wales has been finalised, with only very minor adjustments made to the boundaries proposed in June, none of which affect my calculations of the new margins by more than 0.1%. Certainly there has been no revision to the abolition of North Sydney, held by teal independent Kylea Tink. The only redistribution process still in train is that for the Northern Territory, charged with drawing a new boundary between its two seats of Solomon and Lingiari, for which a proposal should be published shortly.

• The Liberal candidate for the crucial Melbourne seat of Chisholm will be Katie Allen, who was the member for Higgins from 2019 until her defeat by Labor’s Michelle Ananda-Rajah in 2022. Allen was endorsed on the weekend by the state party’s administrative committee, which was charged with ratifying local party preselection processes that were conducted before new boundaries revealed that Higgins, for which Allen had again won endorsement, was to be abolished. The decision came at the expense of Monash councillor Theo Zographos, who was last year preselected unopposed for Chisholm.

• Ronald Mizen of the Financial Review reports the looming preselections for the Melbourne seats of Maribyrnong and Gorton, respectively to be vacated with the retirements of Bill Shorten and Brendan O’Connor, will be shaped by a long-standing agreement that the Left will take Gorton from the Right when O’Connor retires, while the Left will take “the next safe Right seat that becomes available”. The matter will be determined by the party’s national executive, which has again taken over the federal preselection process from the Victorian branch. Maribyrnong is considered likely to go to Jo Briskey, national co-ordinator of the Left faction United Workers Union, although The Age reports she “could face a challenge from Moonee Valley mayor Pierce Tyson”.

• In Gorton, the Labor preselection appears to be developing into a contest between Alice Jordan-Baird, a climate change and water policy expert, and Ranka Rasic, the mayor of Brimbank. The two candidates are back by rival sub-factions of the Right, the former with that of Richard Marles and the Transport Workers Union, the latter with Bill Shorten and the Australian Workers Union. James Massola of The Age reports the matter could be decided by a third Right union, the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association, supporting Rasic and the AWU in the interests of checking the rising power of the TWU.

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