Northcote by-election preview

A union-commissioned poll finds the Greens falling short in their bid for the Labor-held inner Melbourne seat.

The ABC reports that a CFMEU-commissioned poll has Labor leading the Greens 54-46 in Northcote, the inner Melbourne state seat where a by-election is to be held tomorrow after the death of Labor incumbent Fiona Richardson. After excluding the 9.6% undecided, the primary votes are 41.8% for Labor’s Clare Burns, 36.9% for Greens candidate Lidia Thorpe, 6.3% for the Liberal Democrats, 4.9% for the Animal Justice Party and 10.1% combined for the eight independents. Labor is favoured by the how-to-vote cards of the Liberal Democrats, Laura Chipp, low-profile independent Phil Cooper and, curiously, the Animal Justice Party. The Greens are favoured only by independents, including former Darebin mayor Vince Fontana, anarchist activist and the lesser-known (to me at least) Brian Sanaghan, Nevena Spirovska and Russell Hayward.

Beyond that, my Northcote by-election page offers an overview of the situation. Tune in from 6pm tomorrow for live coverage of the count.

BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor

A long period of poll trend stasis appears to have ended, with three pollsters reporting a break to Labor.

Newspoll, Essential and YouGov each offered evidence of break in Labor’s favour this week after a long period of stasis at 53-47. If that’s so, it may take another week or two for the BludgerTrack trend to adjust fully to the new reality. For the time being, Labor is up 0.7% on two-party preferred and two on the seat projection. Two sets of leadership numbers from Newspoll and Essential have a visible effect on the trend measures, with Turnbull heading south on both net approval and preferred prime minister. Full results on the sidebar.

Queensland election minus nine days

ReachTEL takes a journey into the mind of the One Nation voter, and finds the party posing a strong challenge in two conservative regional seats.

A bit of confusion surrounding the ReachTEL poll that appeared in the Sunday Mail, which asked about voting intention only as a “filter” for identifying One Nation supporters, and has not published the numbers. Sky News reported an LNP lead of 52-48 from the poll, but it is hard to say what this is based on. The poll was conducted last Thursday from a sample of 3435, but if I understand it correctly, only the 700 or so One Nation-voting respondents would then have completed the survey. Nonetheless, the poll has some interesting results, suggesting the One Nation voter base to be engorged with LNP deserters who intend to preference their old party, and have a surprisingly strong expectation that One Nation will be in government with it after the election.

Continue reading “Queensland election minus nine days”

Same-sex marriage survey: 61.6 yes, 38.4 no

And the winner is …

So there you have it. Below is a tool for exploring the results at divisional level according to a range of electoral and demographic criteria. Take your pick from the drop down menu, and you will get divisional “yes” votes recorded on the vertical axis, and their results for the relevant indicator on the vertical axis. Most of these are self-explanatory, with the exception of “One Nation support index”. This equals the division’s 2016 Senate vote for One Nation divided by the party’s overall Senate vote in that state, multiplied by 100. So an electorate will score 100 if its One Nation vote is exactly equal to the state average; it will score 200 if it’s double; 50 if it’s half; and so forth. This is to prevent the party’s across-the-board high results in Queensland from spoiling the effect. “Finished school” is measured as a percent of the 15-plus population.

Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor; YouGov: 52-48

Essential has Malcolm Turnbull losing ground on personal approval, but not voting intention; YouGov does the opposite.

No change on voting intention this week from Essential Research, with Labor continuing to lead 54-46 on two-party preferred (UPDATE: Actually, it was 53-47 last week. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 38%, the Coalition is down one to 36%, the Greens are down one to 9%, One Nation is steady on 8%). Monthly leadership ratings confirm Newspoll’s picture of declining personal support for Malcolm Turnbull, who is down five on approval to 37% and up six on disapproval to 49%. However, Bill Shorten hasn’t done brilliantly either, being down two on approval to 35% and up four on disapproval to 48%, and making only a slight dent in Turnbull’s 42-28 lead as preferred prime minister, which now stands at 40-28.

Other findings:

• Forty per cent approve of a requirement that for MPs to provide declarations about their eligibility, while 44% say this does not go far enough. Forty-nine per cent say MPs found to have been invalidly elected should should repay their public funding, compared with 30% who thought otherwise.

• Forty-five per cent felt the same-sex marriage postal survey was a bad process that should not be repeated; 19% felt it good, but not one that should be repeated; and 27% thought it a good process that should be used more often.

We only have the report from the Guardian to go on at this point, with primary votes to follow with the publication of Essential’s full report later today.

The fortnightly Fifty Acres-YouGov poll records a break to Labor, who are now 52-48 in front after uncharacteristically trailing 51-49 in their last few polls. However, the pollster’s distinguishing peculiarity – the strength of support recorded for minor parties – is more pronounced than ever, as the Coalition sinks five to 31% and Labor only picks up one to 34%, with One Nation up two to 11% and the Greens up one to 11%. As usual, the two-party total is based on a respondent-allocated preference flow that gives three-quarters of the One Nation vote to the Coalition.

The pollster also has its occasional personal ratings for a range of politicians, which are unusual in being relatively favourable over all, and having low uncommitted ratings. Contrary to the other pollsters, Malcolm Turnbull records little change since early September, with approval steady at 44% and disapproval down one to 47%. Bill Shorten is up two on approval to 45% and down two to 44%, and Pauline Hanson’s ratings are not unlike those of the major party leaders, with approval up three to 45% and down two on disapproval to 48%. Also featured: Richard Di Natale (up three to 29%, down six to 33%), Nick Xenophon (up one to 53%, steady on 28%), Bob Katter (up one to 37%, steady on 41%), Tony Abbott (up two to 36%, down one to 56%) and Christopher Pyne (steady on 32%, up one to 45%).

Other findings are that respondents want same-sex marriage legalised straight away if the survey result is yes, though 42% think opponents should vote with their consciences in parliament; they overwhelmingly favour a “full parliamentary audit” on Section 44; and they want a much harder line on tax avoidance and evasion.

Queensland election: highlights of week two

ReachTEL once again comes in a few points better for the LNP than other pollsters, while Galaxy Research finds there’s nothing in it between Labor and the Greens in Deputy Premier Jackie Trad’s seat of South Brisbane.

Yesterday’s Sunday Mail had results from a ReachTEL poll of 3435 respondents conducted on Thursday, but rather than report the voting intention results, the paper instead focused on detail about the attitudes and demographics of the poll’s unidentified share of One Nation supporters. Sky News later reported the poll had the LNP with a two-party lead of 52-48, which is unchanged from the last ReachTEL poll in late September, and consistent with the pollster’s recent form. ReachTEL’s three state polls this year have been unique out of the 11 published overall in having the LNP slightly ahead on two-party preferred, rather than slightly behind. Part of the reason is the high 74.5% flow of respondent-allocated preferences from One Nation to the LNP.

Also from the Sunday Mail report:

their education is evenly split, with 31.7 per cent holding a university degree and 29.5 per cent a TAFE certificate, while 31.1 per cent ended their learning after high school, and just over 6 per cent completed their learning after primary school. While some work in construction and mining (9.4 per cent) and others in transport, health, retail and manufacturing, almost 40 per cent of One Nation supporters say they are retired or unemployed. About the same percentage live in households that are trying to make ends meet on less than $50,000 a year, and very few (4.9 per cent) earn more than $200,000. Politically, 45.7 per cent voted for the LNP at the last Queensland election, while 19.8 per cent supported Labor, and 21.1 per cent Katter’s Australian Party.

Today’s Courier-Mail has one last result from the nine electorate-level polls conducted for it last week by Galaxy Research, offering the very big finding that Deputy Premier Jackie Trad is indeed under substantial pressure from the Greens in her seat of South Brisbane. Continue reading “Queensland election: highlights of week two”