The Poll Bludger

The second of three leaders’ debate will be hosted by the ABC from 8pm this evening, to be moderated by David Speers. It was also announced on Monday that the third will be held on Sunday, April 27, a week out from polling day, to be conducted by the Seven Network and moderated by Mark Riley. On the polling front, Nine Newspapers has further results from the Resolve Strategic poll showing Labor’s policies favoured over the Coalition’s on tax (40% to 34%) and housing (40% to 27%) (UPDATE: This is actually a new survey of 801 respondents, conducted “in the days after” the weekend poll). There is also a characteristically thorough review of the polling over the past few months by Macquarie University academic Murray Goot at Inside Story.

I’m hoping to do a bit more over the coming two-and-a-half weeks by way of probing into the innards of recent poll results, starting by focusing on regional breakdowns from RedBridge Group’s four federal polls for this year, which helpfully use the same classifications employed by the Australian Electoral Commission. The table below shows combined party vote shares for these four regions at the 2022 election, together with their deviation from the national result, then repeats the exercise for the four RedBridge polls published so far this year, followed by a measure of how much these relativities have changed. So for example, the Coalition is up two points in “provincial”, but this translates to no change in the third table because it’s also up two points overall.

The results suggest Labor’s biggest improvement has come from the “rural” category, which might be thought unhelpful for them, raising the spectre of unproductive improvements in safe conservative seats. In point of fact though, the AEC employs the term loosely enough to encompass a number of important seats: Gilmore, Hunter, Eden-Monaro, Lingiari, Leichhardt, Lyons and McEwen. To the extent that outer metropolitan might nonetheless be thought most strategically important, the small-sample results from the four polls individually offer some suggestion that it is here Labor’s improvement has been strongest, despite Peter Dutton’s best efforts: Labor’s successive two-party preferred results have been 45%, 53%, 53% and 55%, whereas inner metropolitan and provincial have recorded little change.

More evidence of a tide to Labor from Nine Newspapers’ Resolve Strategic poll, which has been (at least since the end of 2023) one of the strongest series for the Coalition, but now credits Labor with a two-party lead of 53.5-46.5, compared with 50-50 in the post-budget poll and 55-45 to the Coalition with a distinctly poor result for Labor in the mid-February poll. Labor is up two points on the primary vote to 31% (amounting to a six-point increase from the mid-February poll), while the Coalition is down three to 34% (five since mid-February), the Greens are steady on 13%, and One Nation are down one to 8%. Independents are up three to 12% — presumably this is based on a generic question that will be superseded in coming Resolve Strategic polls tailored to the candidates running in the respondent’s electorate, causing this number to fall.

Anthony Albanese is now in net positive territory on his personal ratings, his combined good and very good result up six to 45% (an 11-point improvement since mid-February), while poor plus very poor is down six to 43% (a 13-point improvement). Peter Dutton is down three to 34% and up six to 53% (an 13-point deterioration since mid-February on both counts). Anthony Albanese now leads 46-30 on preferred prime minister, out from 42-33 last time. The poll also finds 33% saying their view of Donald Trump has made them less likely to vote Coalition, compared with 14% for more likely, with respective numbers of 21% and 22% for Labor. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1642.

There is also the regular weekly Roy Morgan poll, which has Labor leading 54.5-45.5 on two-party preferred, out from 53.5-46.5, which reflects improvement for Labor on respondent-allocated preferences rather than primary votes: Labor is down half to 32%, the Coalition is up half to 33.5%, the Greens are up one to 14.5% and One Nation is steady at 6%. The two-party measure based on previous election preference flows also has Labor leading 54.5-45.5, which is unchanged on last week. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1708.

Resolve Strategic’s breakdowns show this poll to be distinctive for a strong result for Labor among men, at 34% on the primary vote compared with 29% among women. Breakdowns for the three largest states show Labor up five in Queensland and the Coalition down six in New South Wales, without correspondingly large movement for the other major party. All of which has now been incorporated in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, giving Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings a substantial lift without adding anything noticeable to voting intention, on which Labor’s two-party vote shot up 0.7% with the addition of last night’s Newspoll. Essential Research, which a been a little stickier than other pollsters over the last month or so, should be along overnight.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research has broken out of its stasis, with Labor now holding a lead of 50% (up two) to 45% (down two) on the 2PP+ measure, which leaves room for a 5% undecided component. On the primary vote, which also includes a 5% undecided component, Labor is up one to 31%, the Coalition is down two to 32%, and the Greens are up a point to 13%. The pollster has followed its own course with Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings, which surged in January and have been fairly stable since: the latest result has him steady on 44% approval and up one on disapproval to 47%. Peter Dutton is down two on approval to 39% and up one on disapproval to 48%. The pollster doesn’t track preferred prime minister, but this result includes head-to-head questions on handling key issues, which find Albanese leading Dutton 34% to 28% on his presumed weak point of addressing the cost of living, and 30% to 20% on Dutton’s presumed strength of keeping Australians safe. Both leaders were favoured by 29% for responding to the Trump administration’s tariffs.

The foregoing is based on a report in The Guardian — a full report will be along later today. The poll had a sample of 2142 and was likely conducted Wednesday to Monday.

UPDATE 2: Full Essential Research report here. The Coalition continues to do better than Labor on firmness of voting intention. The voting intention numbers have increased Labor’s two-party lead on BludgerTrack from 51.6-48.4 to 51.9-48.1, and it now shows swings (however slight) to Labor in four of the five states being tracked, with the inevitable exception of Victoria.

A few days short of the half-way mark, both parties will today conduct what are quaintly known as campaign launches, which in effect are set pieces for Anthony Albanese to announce an expanded home deposit guarantee and Peter Dutton to promise a one-off income tax offset. Hopefully there will be a poll or two along shortly – consecutive Newspolls over the previous two weeks suggest one of those might be along late afternoon, but beyond that I can offer no further insight.

The latest:

• Labor’s member for Macnamara, Josh Burns, has announced his how-to-vote card will not direct preferences, so as not to put the Greens ahead of the Liberals as normal. Mohammad Alfares of The Australian reports “some Labor members” have related “internal rumblings about replicating Mr Burns’ move nationwide”. Macnamara aside, the seats where it could realistically make a difference are limited to the three held by the Greens in Brisbane.

• With suggestions former Victorian state Liberal leader John Pesutto may be driven to bankruptcy and from parliament over his defamation payout to party colleague Moira Deeming, John Ferguson of The Australian reports “powerbrokers” are considering Amelia Hamer as a potential candidate for a Hawthorn by-election if she is unsuccessful in recovering Kooyong from Monique Ryan.

• Alexi Demetriadi of The Australian reports Labor is more concerned about the south-western Sydney seat of Werriwa, held by Anne Stanley on a margin of 5.2%, than Parramatta, held by Andrew Charlton on 3.6%.

Yesterday marked the declaration of nominations, with ballot paper draws conducted and candidates lists published. The Poll Bludger election guide has duly been updated with full candidate lists for both House and Senate. Labor and the Greens are as usual fielding candidates in all seats, while the Coalition parties have 157 candidates between them — of the seven three-cornered contest, probably only the new Western Australian seat of Bullwinkel is of interest. The total number of lower house candidates is down from 1203 to 1126, or 7.96 candidates per seat to 7.51. Leading the pack are Calwell and Riverina with 13 each, which in the former case could deepen an already complex situation with a high informal vote.

At the other end of the scale, Fenner, Bean, Perth and Maribyrnong will have to make do with four. A contributor in the first two cases is that only the three Australian Capital Territory seats are spared One Nation candidates. Whereas the United Australia Party had a full complement in 2022, Trumpet of Patriots has only 100 candidates, followed by Family First on 92, Libertarians on 46 and Legalise Cannabis on 42. The 2022 result seems to have encouraged independents, who are up in number from 98 to 132.

The pace of decline in Senate nominations has quickened as aspirants acclimatise to the fact that preference harvesting is no longer a thing, providing relief to both voters and the Australian Electoral Commission in terms of the size of the ballot papers. The total number of candidates has fallen progressively from 458 in 2019 to 421 in 2022 to 330 in 2025, while the total number of groups across all states and territories is down from 151 in 2022 to 118. The Australian Electoral Commission has also published final enrolment statistics as of the close of the roll on Monday. There are 18,098,797 voters on the roll, a 5.1% increase on the 17,213,433 enrolled in 2022, which was in turn a 4.8% increase on 2019.

Polling latest:

• The News Corp papers today carry the third wave of the RedBridge Group-Accent Research marginal seat tracking poll, targeting 20 seats that had an average Labor two-party vote of 51.0% in 2022, as adjusted for redistributions. As such, its Labor lead of 52.5-47.5 might be considered the government’s most encouraging result of the campaign so far, comparing with Coalition leads of 52-48 in the February 4-11 wave and 50.5-49.5 from February 20-25. The Coalition primary vote has progressively sunk from 43% to 41% to 36%, but the dividend has gone almost entirely to “others” — Labor scored 33% in the first wave, 34% in the second and 35% in this one, while the Greens have been steady on 12% throughout. Anthony Albanese’s net approval rating has progressed from minus 16 to minus 11 to minus 8, while Peter Dutton has gone from minus 11 to minus 17 (or so I infer — the result published for the second poll combined the first two waves) to minus 16. One bright spot for the Coalition is that their supporters continue to register greater firmness in their intention, with 38% rating themselves merely soft or leaning compared with 57% for Labor. Albanese also had only 18% viewing his handling of the Trump administration’s tariffs favourably, compared with 40% for unfavourably. The poll was conducted last Friday to Wednesday from a sample of 1003.

• The News Corp papers report three sets of claims regarding internal polling in Dickson, with the Coalition saying their own polling by Freshwater Strategy has Peter Dutton leading Labor’s Ali France 57-43; Climate 200 offering uComms polling showing France leading 51.7-48.3; and Labor polling “understood” to have it at 50-50. Also “understood” is that Dutton’s campaign has spent $40,000 on advertising attacking Climate 200-backed independent Ellie Smith. Further, Samantha Maiden of news.com.au provides, in rather more detail, a separate uComms poll, this one for the Queensland Conservation Council, showing Labor leading 52-48, with primary votes of 37.6% for Dutton, 24.2% for France, 12.0% for Smith, 10.9% for the Greens, 4.6% for others and 10.8% undecided. The poll was freshly conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 854.

• The Australian reports polling conducted for Climate 200 has teal independent Sue Chapman with a 51-49 lead over Liberal candidate Ben Small in the regional Western Australian seat of Forrest, where Liberal incumbent Nola Marino is retiring. The primary vote question recorded 34% support for Small and 20% for Chapman along with an unspecified undecided component, of which 27% favoured Chapman and 18% Small when prompted with a follow-up question. An unidentified Liberal MP is quoted saying the party was “not alarmed yet, but we’re anxious”.

• Local news outlet Pulse Tasmania reports a uComms poll for the Australian Forest Products Association shows a tight race in the key Tasmanian seat of Lyons, with Labor candidate Rebecca White leading 50.9-49.1 over Liberal candidate Susie Bowers. The primary votes are Labor 27.2%, Liberal 29.5%, Greens 14.6%, Jacqui Lambie Network 5.8% and One Nation 4.1%, with 13.1% undecided.