South Australian election guide

Introducing the Poll Bludger’s comprehensive guide to South Australia’s March 21 state election.

With exactly four months to go until the big day, a post to call attention to the fact that my South Australian election guide has been live for the past week or so. As usual, it features pages on each lower house seat, including tables, charts, interactive maps and write-ups; a further page doing the same for the upper house; and an overview page reviewing the electoral terrain and the general form of state politics over the past four years. There are a fair few gaps remaining to be filled in terms of yet-to-be-selected party candidates, but the whole thing will be updated and revised on a semi-regular basis over the coming months. Come election night itself, this site will feature its acclaimed live reporting of results, which is progressively getting more reliable in its functioning and sophisticated in its methods.

Morgan: 54.5-45.5 to Labor (open thread)

Beneath another strong headline figure, a softening primary vote for Labor and indications it may have taken a hit amid the travel expenses furore.

Roy Morgan’s last poll for the year has Labor leading 54.5-45.5 on respondent-allocated two-party preferred from polling conducted December 8 to 14, with primary votes of Labor 30.5%, Coalition 27.5%, Greens 13% and One Nation 17%. These numbers have been published as a subset of its regular result compiling polling conducted over the full month (specifically from November 17 to December 14), suggesting Labor may have taken a hit during the period of the survey period coinciding the with the travel expenses affair. Labor’s two-party lead over the full month was 55.5-44.5 (in from 56.5-43.5 last month), from primary votes of Labor 32% (down one, and their lowest primary vote in any poll since the election), Coalition 26.5% (down half), Greens 13.5% (up one) and One Nation 15.5% (up one-and-a-half). Applying preference flows from the May federal election, Labor’s two-party lead comes in at 55-45, unchanged on last month.

The samples were 1574 for the December 8 to 14 period, and 4862 overall. The full release features breakdowns for each state (including Tasmania) as well as by gender age.

RedBridge Group/Accent Research: 56-44 to Labor (open thread)

Another federal poll showing Labor dominating the Coalition and One Nation at an historic peak.

The Financial Review has a RedBridge Group/Accent Research federal voting intention showing Labor with a 56-44 two-party lead, from primary votes of Labor 35%, Coalition 26%, Greens 13% and One Nation 17%. Leadership ratings inclusive of a neutral option have Anthony Albanese at 39% favourable and 38% unfavourable, Sussan Ley at 14% and 34%, Jim Chalmers at 22% and 27%, Pauline Hanson at 31% and 50%, Barnaby Joyce at 20% and 47%, Chris Bowen at 13% positive and 37% negative, and Tony Burke at 12% and 23%. A preferred prime minister question has Albanese on 41% and Ley on 12%, with 9% opting for neither and 25% for about the same.

Also featured are questions on the best party to handle key issues, which finds 28% favouring One Nation to handle the “rate of immigration”, compared with 20% for Liberal, 19% for Liberal and 6% for the Greens. Labor holds clear leads over the Coalition for the other five issues, from 28% to 23% on national security to 36% to 18% on health. The poll was conducted December 5 to 12 from a sample of 1012.

RedBridge Group: 57-43 to Labor in New South Wales

No encouragement for Kellie Sloane in the first New South Wales state poll since she assumed the Liberal leadership.

The first published poll of New South Wales state voting intention since Kellie Sloane replaced Mark Speakman as Liberal leader shows no improvement in the party’s position, with Labor leading 57-43 on two-party preferred from primary votes of Labor 38%, Coalition 30%, Greens 10% and One Nation 4%. Forty-three per cent agreed the government had the right focus and priorities, with 33% disagreeing, while 20% felt Kellie Sloane and the Coalition deserved to win the next election, with 45% disagreeing. The poll was conducted by RedBridge Group/Access Research from November 24 (three says after Sloane became leader) to December 8 from a sample of 1293 and published in the Financial Review.

Queensland: Resolve poll, Hinchinbrook by-election, electoral reforms

Positive signs for Steven Miles in a poll, negative ones at a by-election, and new laws relaxing restrictions on political donations and tightening ones on prisoners voting.

The Brisbane Times reports state voting intention results from Resolve Strategic for Queensland, which are seemingly being published bi-monthly now, combining the Queensland samples from two of the pollster’s monthly national surveys. This series has lately been reporting what might be thought a surprisingly encouraging result for Labor, given the Hinchinbrook by-election result (on which more below): the Liberal National Party is on 33% (steady), Labor 30% (down two), the Greens 11% (up one) and One Nation 9% (steady). David Crisafulli’s “net likeability” is down a point to plus 16, while Steven Miles’ maintains an improving trend in increasing seven points to plus 5. Crisafulli lead as preferred premier narrows sharply from 39-22 to 35-34. The report says the sample was 869, but a note under the accompanying graphic says 803.

The count for the Hinchinbrook by-election has been concluded, with Wayde Chiesa of the Liberal National Party prevailing over Mark Molachino of Katter’s Australian Party by a margin of 3.7%, a swing to the LNP of 16.9% compared with the October 2024 election result. The LNP primary vote was up 13.0% to 41.2%, with the KAP down 16.3% to 30.1% and Labor down 5.7% to 8.4%.

In further Queensland news, Attorney-General Deb Frecklington announced yesterday that the government would introduce electoral law legislation, which would not at this stage encompass the promised return to optional preferential voting. It proposes:

• Winding back the ban on property developer donations introduced by Labor in 2018 so it applies only to local government elections. Such had been the recommendation of the Crime and Corruption Commission in 2017, but the previous government extended the ban to state elections.

• Quadrupling donation caps presently amounting to around $4800 to a party and $7200 to a candidate by having them apply over a financial year rather than a four-year period.

• Extending the disqualification on prisoners voting from those serving terms of three years or more to one year or more. This is interesting in that an attempt by the Howard government to extend the existing three-year disqualification at federal level to all prisoners regardless of their sentence was overturned by the High Court in the case of Roach v Electoral Commissioner (2007).

• Removing the requirement for the Electoral Commission of Queensland to oversee preselection ballots, which in the estimation of the Courier-Mail “applies uniquely to the LNP as Labor directly appoints candidates through its union-based factions”.

Essential Research 2PP+: 49-45 to Labor (open thread)

Another polling milestone for One Nation, plus other observations on their recent surge.

Essential Research’s fortnightly poll has Labor down two on the primary vote to 34%, the Coalition down one to 26%, the Greens down one to 10% and One Nation up two from what was already a record high to 17%, with 5% undecided. Labor’s lead on the 2PP+ measure narrows from 50-44 to 49-45, with the balance undecided. Monthly leadership ratings have Anthony Albanese down four on approval to 43% and up two on approval to 45%, with Sussan Ley up three to 34% and down one to 43%.

Helpfully, further questions focus on One Nation, though the survey was conducted before Barnaby Joyce announced he was joining the party. Thirty-one per cent rated that the most likely outcome when asked about his next move, compared with 23% for remaining as an independent and 10% for rejoining the Nationals. Thirty-three per cent rated that him joining One Nation would make them more likely to vote for the party, and 52% less likely; 30% that him becoming leader would make them more likely and 54% less likely.

The social media ban on under-16s was supported by 57% and opposed by 21%, though the trajectory is downward, the results having been 63% and 19% when the question was previously asked in September. Fourteen per cent felt it would be effective, 52% somewhat effective and 34% not effective. Sixty-seven percent supported and 15% opposed the social media ban on under-16s, though only 35% were confident it would work, with 58% not confident (similar questions in last week’s Resolve Strategic poll found 67% supportive and 15% opposed, with 35% confident it would work and 50% not confident).

The monthly “national mood” reading has one point increases for both “right direction” and “wrong direction”, to 36% and 48% respectively. Twenty-five per cent felt the year was better than they expected going in, with 40% worse; 26% rate themselves better off and 42% worse off. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1030.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate hitherto had One Nation levelling off, but the addition of this result has the trendline pointing upward again. Which serves as a useful introduction to the following:

• As noted in a previous post, a DemosAU MRP poll published last week projected a median outcome of 12 seats for One Nation, with 98 for Labor, 29 for the Coalition, 12 for One Nation, 11 for others and none for the Greens. One Nation were deemed to be firm in Capricornia, Flynn and Wright; leaning in Hinkler, Wide Bay, Lyne, Parkes and Riverina; and leading in Calare, Canning, Grey and Groom. A follow-up release probed into where One Nation’s support was coming from, offering unsurprising findings about it being among older and non-university educated voters located outside inner metropolitan areas. “Approximately one in five” who voted Coalition in May were now professing support for One Nation.

• Relatedly, I had an analysis published in Crikey last week that drew on current voting intention by past vote numbers from RedBridge Group/Accent Research, Freshwater Strategy and Essential Research to ascertain what seats were likely to be gained by One Nation as their share of the national vote increased. This concluded that Capricornia and Wright would be gained from the Coalition at 12%; Flynn and Hinkler at 14%; Parkes from the Coalition, and Forde and Hunter from Labor, at 15%; Longman at 17%; and Wide Bay and Canning from the Coalition, and Blair from Labor, at 18%.

• Last week’s Resolve Strategic poll found 29% would be more likely and 19% less likely to vote One Nation if Barnaby Joyce led the party, including 39% more likely and 11% less likely among Coalition and 49% more likely and 8% less likely among One Nation (respectively with samples of 448 and 219).

Resolve Strategic: 51-49 to Coalition in Victoria

A poll whose survey period straddled the recent Liberal leadership finds Jess Wilson strongly favoured over Jacinta Allan and gives the Coalition a double-digit primary vote lead, while continue to record a close race on two-party preferred.

The Age reports the bi-monthly Resolve Strategic poll of Victorian state voting intention has Labor on 28% (down two), the Coalition on 39% (up six) and the Greens on 12% (steady), with the Coalition leading 51-49 on respondent-allocated preferences. As usual, this involved a sample of 1100 combining the Victorian samples from the pollster’s two regular monthly national surveys, which in this case complicates matters since it means the first half was conducted before the November 18 Liberal leadership change and the second half after. While the change is well within the margin of error, the report says the Coalition in fact did better in the first part of the period than the second, at 39% and 37% respectively.

Jess Wilson records a net approval rating of plus 11, presumably encompassing only the latter part of the survey, which is “the best by any Liberal leader since Resolve started polling in 2021”. Jacinta Allan is at minus 32, while Wilson leads by 41-24 as preferred premier, compared with a 33-27 lead for Brad Battin two months ago.

UPDATE (RedBridge Group/Accent Research): Now a RedBridge Group/Accent Research poll for the Financial Review records a tie on two-party preferred, after the pollster’s October result had Labor leading 52-48. The primary votes are Labor 31% (down one), Coalition 40% (up three), Greens 12% (down one), “minor left” 2%, “minor right” 4%, independents 6% and others 5%. Jacinta Allan records a 20% combined good and very good rating, 14% neither and 60% poor and very poor, while Jess Wilson is on 25% positive, 23% neutral and 22% negative. The poll was conducted from November 24 (a week after the Liberal leadership change) to December 8 from a sample of 1021. Extensive breakdowns are featured in the accompanying release.

Other Victorian electoral news:

• This site now boasts a Victorian state election poll aggregate, which currently credits Labor with a two-party lead of 50.3-49.7. This uses a bias-adjustment measure in which Newspoll serves as the centre of gravity, but apart from DemosAU’s Labor primary vote being inflated by a bit over two points, the adjustments are fairly modest. A permanent link can be accessed at the top of the sidebar.

• A Freshwater Strategy poll for the Herald Sun, conducted from November 21 to 24 from a sample of 1220 (Wilson became leader on November 18), had a 50-50 result on two-party preferred, with the Coalition on 37%, Labor on 30% and the Greens on 15%. Personal ratings (presumably favourable minus unfavourable, though neutral was a response option) were minus 32 for Jacinta Allan, plus 15 for Jess Wilson and plus 10 for Brad Battin, with Wilson leading Battin 47-31 as preferred premier. Thirty-three per cent said the change made them more likely to vote Liberal, 11% less likely, and 50% neither. Fifty-four per cent felt the change would improve the Coalition’s prospects, with 18% disagreeing and 26% doing neither. Sixty-two per cent professed awareness of the Liberal leadership change, with 32% unaware (always instructive in these cases is the gender gap, with 36% of women and 27% of men conceding ignorance).

• A Liberal preselection for Malvern, to be vacated at the election with the retirement of former party leader Michael O’Brien, was held a fortnight ago and won by Amelia Hamer, a former staffer to then Financial Services Minister Jane Hume and more recently director of strategy for financial technology start-up Airwallex and unsuccessful candidate for Kooyong at the May federal election. Daniella White of The Age reports Hamer, whose backers included Jeff Kennett, scored a surprisingly clear first-round win the ballot with 118 votes to 51 for Jacqueline Blackwell, who led a group that campaigned against prolonged school closures during the pandemic, and had determined backing from Josh Frydenberg. Also in the field were Lana Collaris, a barrister, with 31 votes, and Xavier Boffa, executive director of the Samuel Griffith Society, with 13.

• Annika Smethurst of The Age reports a new outfit called The West party will field candidates in western Melbourne, campaigning on neglect of its fast-growing suburbs. The principal of the outfit is Paul Hopper, who will again run in Werribee after polling 5.9% there as an independent at the February by-election. Hopper has been party to a High Court challenge against exemptions to campaign spending caps for the major parties’ “nominated entities”. Also identified as candidates are Newport Traders Association president Gill Gannon in Williamstown; Luan Walker, a Vietnamese-born former Liberal candidate, in St Albans; and for the Legislative Council, Joe Garra, an obstetrician who polled 11.2% as an independent in Werribee in 2018, and former Wyndham councillor Sahana Ramesh.

Resolve Strategic: 55-45 to Labor (open thread)

Labor remains well on top in the final Resolve Strategic poll for the year, despite concerns about the immigration rate.

What is presumably the year’s final monthly Resolve Strategic poll for Nine Newspapers reverses a movement in the Coalition’s favour in the last result, with Labor’s two-party lead out from 53-47 to 55-45. Labor is up two on the primary vote to 35% and the Coalition down three to 26%, with the Greens down one to 11% and One Nation up two to 14%. Sussan Ley nonetheless records improved personal ratings, her combined very good and good rating on the question of performance in recent weeks up six to 39% (albeit that the improvement is entirely from “good” rather than “very good”) and combined poor and very poor down four to 37%. Anthony Albanese is up four on very good plus good to 48% and down one on poor plus very poor to 43%, and his lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 39-25 to 41-26.

Also featured are questions on immigration that tell a now familiar story: after being told of a system that features “net migration intake of 316,000 per year and grants permanent visas to 185,000 people per year”, 53% rated the level too high, 4% too low and 33% about right, compared with 49%, 5% and 27% when the question was last asked in September. The 53% were then asked about six possible reasons for holding that view, with 81% ticking the box for pressure on housing prices and 52% doing so for “a loss of Australian culture and identity”. Four further questions on potential immigration policies found the most restrictive most favoured, peaking at 64% support and 13% opposition for “pausing any immigration until our housing situation has caught up”. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1800.

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