Now a New South Wales state poll finds the Coalition looking down the barrel of One Nation.
The Daily Telegraph reports a DemosAU/Premier National state poll of New South Wales has the inevitable One Nation gain since the last such poll in February at five points, pushing them to 27%. The Coalition are a distant third following a three-point drop to 20%, with Labor down two to 32% and the Greens down two to 13%. The poll was conducted last Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1038. The full release contains detailed breakdowns plus further questions, and should be up on the pollster’s site fairly soon.
There were also two state results from Resolve Strategic last week that I didn’t feel inspired to cover at the time, both combining results from two of the pollster’s monthly national surveys, which were conducted from May 13 to 16 and June 8 to 13:
• In Victoria, a slightly less bad result for Labor than those published last week by DemosAU and Freshwater Strategy, their primary vote down one to 26% with the Coalition down three to 26%, One Nation up three to 24% and the Greens up two to 12%. Jess Wilson’s lead over Jacinta Allan on preferred premier is unchanged at 39-20. No exact sample size is provided, but it would have been around 1000.
• In Queensland, the Liberal National Party was steady on 30%, with Labor down four to 24%, One Nation up seven to 24%, and the Greens down one to 10%. David Crisfaulli’s lead over Steven Miles as preferred premier was out from 42-26 to 44-20, and his net likeability rating is down three to plus 16, with Miles down six to minus 11. The sample for this poll was 868.
Two new federal polls, two more record highs for One Nation.
The monthly DemosAU federal poll for Capital Brief has One Nation gaining two points to yet another new peak of 30%, with Labor up a point to 27%, the Coalition suffering a devastating five-point knock to fall to 18%, and the Greens steady on 13%. The pollster produces an estimated seats outcome from its polls based that makes use of data from its detailed quarterly MRP polling, and it has Labor on 71 to 81 seats, One Nation on 54 to 63, the Coalition on four to 11, the Greens on zero to four and others on four to eight. Respondents were also asked how they would vote with Tony Abbott leading the Coalition, with hardly little difference to the result.
Leader ratings record a deterioration for all three: Anthony Albanese is down one on positive to 26%, down one on neutral to 25% and up two on negative to 49%; Angus Taylor is down six to 22%, up five to 50% and up one to 28%; and Pauline Hanson is down two to 37%, down two to 23% and up four to 40%. A three-way preferred prime minister result has Albanese up a point to 35%, Taylor down four to 19% and Hanson up one to 28%.
Questions about the budget measures were again posed, recording a deterioration in support for all three: support for the negative gearing measures down two to 32% with opposition up two 31%; support for changes to capital gains tax discounts is up one to 29% with opposition up four to 33%; and support for the maximum 30% tax rate on family trusts is down three to 24% with opposition up seven to 41%. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1497.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll also has One Nation smashing another series record with a two point gain to 31.5%, with Labor down one to 27%, the Coalition up half to 17.5% and the Greens down half to 13.5%. Labor’s two-party lead over One Nation narrows from 53-47 to 51-49, while its leads over the Coalition are in from 54.5-45.5 to 54-46 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 54.5-45.5 to 52.5-47.5 on previous election preference flows. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1575.
Can Andy Burnham win today’s by-election to become an MP? Also: further results from Californian and other international elections.
Live Commentary
12:23pm Tuesday Starmer has announced he will resign as Labour leader and PM once a new leader is chosen. Streeting won’t contest the Labour leadership. Nominations for the leadership open on July 9 and close a week later. Unless someone other than Burnham can win 81 signatures from Labour MPs, Burnham will become the next UK PM on July 16 or 17.
9:55am With 99.9% counted in today’s Colombian presidential runoff election, populist right-winger Espriella defeated left-winger Cepeda by 49.65-48.70, with the remaining votes invalid. The margin of under 1% for Espriella was less than polls predicted (4-8 point Espriella margins in polls taken after the first round result).
9:39am Monday According to media reports, Starmer is expected to set out a timetable for his resignation tonight AEST. This will probably allow Burnham to become Labour leader and PM without a contest. Wes Streeting would also like to be Labour leader, but can he get the 81 required signatures?
4:22pm A by-election for Greater Manchester Mayor will be required by August 6 after the mayoralty became vacant following Burnham’s win.
4:07pm To challenge for the Labour leadership, a candidate needs at least 20% of Labour MPs (81 Labour MPs in the current UK parliament). They need MPs to sign a petition, so supporters of a challenger can’t remain anonymous. The incumbent leader doesn’t need to meet this threshold. A membership ballot is then held by post, with the winner decided by preferential voting.
12:15pm Burnham (Labour) CRUSHES Reform in Makerfield by 20.3 points, far more than what any poll said. He got 54.8% of the vote, a clear majority.
11:23am The Tory who won Aberdeen South was elected to the Scottish Parliament on May 7, and will need to resign his seat there. But there won’t be a by-election as he was a list MP. His seat will be taken by the next Tory on the list.
11:19am The BBC says Labour is unofficially claiming victory in Makerfield with 54% of the vote.
11:02am The SNP have easily HELD Arbroath and Broughty Ferry. Labour was a close second in 2024, but their vote has collapsed.
10:57am The Tories have GAINED Aberdeen South from the SNP. Unionist supporters consolidated behind the Tories, who were narrowly third in 2024, as Labour’s vote collapsed.
10:44am The BBC says senior Labour MP Louise Haigh has said she is “quietly confident” that Labour has won the Makerfield by-election.
10:33am The BBC says Labour people are more optimistic about Makerfield.
10:10am Turnout in Makerfield was 58.8%, up 6.3% from the turnout in this seat at the 2024 general election. It’s very unusual for turnout to be higher at a by-election than the general.
9:50am The BBC live blog says that, according to party sources, the Tories are likely to gain Aberdeen South from the SNP at one of today’s by-elections.
9:45am Friday While we wait for the UK by-election results, there’s been more counting in the California 14 special election that occurred Tuesday. With 95% counted, Dems Wahab (with 42.8%) and Hernandez (with 16.8%) advance to the August 18 runoff. Overall, Dems beat Reps by 51.1 points, a 15.7-point swing to the Dems on margin compared with the 2024 presidential results in that seat.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.
Polls close at 7am AEST Friday for a UK parliamentary by-election in Makerfield. This by-election was caused by the May 14 resignation of Labour MP Josh Simons to allow Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham to run. If Burnham becomes an MP, he is expected to challenge Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership.
At the 2024 general election, Labour defeated the populist right Reform in Makerfield by 45.2-31.8 with 10.9% for the Conservatives, 6.8% Liberal Democrats and 4.4% Greens. But at the May local elections, Reform won 50% in the eight wards within Makerfield.
Four recent Makerfield polls have Burnham leading Reform by 5-12 points, with Restore (another populist right party) on 5-8%. In the Election Maps UK aggregate of national polls, Reform leads with 27.4%, followed by Labour at 19.5%, the Conservatives 18.6%, the Greens 13.0%, the Lib Dems 12.3% and Restore 2.8%. The Greens have slid from a high of 15.9% in late March.
There will be two other parliamentary by-elections today, both caused by the resignation of Scottish National Party MPs after their elections to the Scottish parliament on May 7. In 2024, the SNP won Aberdeen South by 32.8-24.7 over Labour with 24.4% Conservatives, 6.9% Reform, 6.3% Lib Dems and 3.5% Greens. The SNP won Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by 35.3-33.4 over Labour with 15.5% Conservatives, 8.6% Reform and 5.1% Lib Dems.
US: further California results
In near-final results from the June 2 California jungle primary, Democrat Becerra (with 28.1%) and Republican Hilton (with 24.7%) advanced to the November gubernatorial election, with Democrat Steyer missing out with 22.8%. For Los Angeles mayor, incumbent Bass (with 34.3%) and left-wing challenger Raman (with 29.0%) advanced, with right-wing challenger Pratt missing with 25.5%.
At the concurrent federal special election for California 1, Republican Gallagher won 62.1%, avoiding a runoff by winning a majority. Republicans overall defeated Democrats by 27.5 points, a small swing to them from Donald Trump’s 24.9-point margin in this seat over Kamala Harris in 2024.
At Tuesday’s jungle primary federal special election for California 14, with 82% counted, Democrat Wahab has 42.4%, Democrat Hernandez 16.7% and Democrat Singh 13.2%. An August 18 runoff between Wahab and Hernandez will be needed. Overall, Democrats defeated Republicans by 75.1-24.3, a 50.8-point margin. This seat voted for Harris over Trump in 2024 by 65.8-30.4, a 35.4-point margin.
Denmark, Slovenia, Peru and Colombia electoral events
At the March 26 Danish election, the left-wing Red bloc of parties won 86 of the 179 seats and the right-wing Blue bloc 78 seats. With both blocs short of the 90 needed for a majority, the Moderates with 14 seats were the kingmakers. On June 2, a minority government was formed that included the Social Democrats (38 seats), the Green Left (20), the Moderates and the Social Liberals (ten). This was a hold for the Social Democrats.
At the March 22 Slovenian election, the liberal GS won 29 of the 90 seats, the right-wing SDS 28, the Christian NSi nine, the centre-left SD six, the conservative Democrats six, the left-wing Levica five and the anti-vaxxer Resni.ca five. A right-wing government led by the SDS was sworn in on May 22, with right-wing parties winning overall by 48 seats to 40. This was a gain for SDS from GS.
At the June 7 Peruvian presidential runoff election, right-winger Fujimori leads left-winger Sánchez by 50.1-49.9 with 99.4% counted. A Fujimori win would be her first win after three consecutive runoff losses. In the April first round, there was a fragmented field, with Fujimori getting 17.2% and Sánchez 12.04%, just ahead of the populist right Aliaga on 11.91%.
Legislative elections also occurred in April using proportional representation with a 5% threshold. Out of 60 senators, right-wing parties won by 30-23 over left-wing parties with seven for a centrist party. In the Chamber of Deputies, the right and left tied with 56 seats each out of 130 with 18 for centrists.
Incumbent left-wing Colombian President Petro was ineligible to run for a second term. At the May 31 first round election, the populist right Espriella won 43.7% and the left-wing Cepeda 40.9%. The runoff is on Sunday (Monday AEST). Polls have Espriella leading by 4-8 points.
Two new federal polls showing only modest movement over the last fortnight, both with One Nation keeping their nose in front of Labor on the primary vote.
Two new federal polls, plus the detritus of a third:
• The fortnightly Sky News Pulse poll by YouGov has Labor steady on 26%, One Nation down one to 28%, the Coalition up one to 21% and the Greens steady on 13%. Labor holds 52-48 respondent-allocated two-party preferred leads over both the Coalition and One Nation, which are respectively unchanged and in from 53-47. Anthony Albanese is up one on approval to 35% and steady on 60% disapproval, while Angus Taylor is down one to 37% and up four to 47%. Albanese holds a 48-41 lead over Pauline Hanson, out from 47-41. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to yesterday from a sample of 1492.
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor up two to 28%, One Nation steady on 29.5%, the Coalition down half a point to 17% and the Greens down one-and-a-half to 14%. Labor leads the Coalition 54.5-45.5 on both measures of two-party preferred, where the previous poll had them leading 56-44 on respondent-allocated preferences and 54-46 using previous election flows. Labor leads One Nation 53-47 on a respondent-allocated two-party measure, in from 53.5-46.5.
• Nine Newspapers provides further results from the Resolve Strategic poll suggesting strong support for the various policies announced by Angus Taylor, including 42% in favour of linking immigration to completed house builds, with 18% opposed, and 42% in favour of scrapping the capital gains tax and negative gearing changes, with 17% opposed. Jim Chalmers has a 34% approval rating, steady on a month ago, with 39% disapproval, down one.
Also some non-poll related electorally relevant news:
• Sarah Ison of The Australian reported on June 8 that questions surrounded the eligibility of Western Australian One Nation Senator Tyron Whitten to sit in parliament. At issue is whether his shares in a family civil construction company that has a contract with a firm working on the Snowy Hydro 2.0 project falls foul of Section 44(v), which disqualifies those who hold “direct or indirect pecuniary interest in any agreement with the Public Service of the Commonwealth”. Matters for judgement identified by constitutional law expert Anne Twomey include whether the family firm qualifies for the exemption for “an incorporated company consisting of more than twenty‑five persons”; whether Snowy Hydro 2.0, which has a legal existence separate from the Commonwealth, counts as “the Public Service of the Commonwealth”; and, for the Senate’s judgement, whether Whitten had failed to properly disclose the matter.
• Two vacancies loom in Tasmanian Senate seats held by the Liberal Party, most imminently in the case of Shadow Home Affairs Minister Jonathan Duniam, who announced on Sunday he will leave politics once work on the Coalition’s immigration policy had been finalised. Wendy Askew also announced last week that she will not stand at the next election, and will thus retire when her term ends in mid-2028. The ABC reported Brad Stansfield, newspaper publisher, managing director of polling firm EMRS and former chief-of-staff to Premier Will Hodgman, will seek preselection, presumably suggesting he will be in the running to fill Duniam’s casual vacancy. Stansfield boasted support from Jeremy Rockliff, Peter Gutwein and Peta Credlin as well as Hodgman. Sue Bailey of The Mercury further reported former state Education Minister Sarah Courtney, who served in parliament from 2014 to 2022, was “also believed to be considering”.
• Yet another disturbance to the Senate’s Tasmanian contingent unfolded on May 14 when Tammy Tyrell joined Labor, increasing its representation in the chamber to 30 seats out of 76. Tyrell was elected for the Jacqui Lambie Network in 2022, broke with the party in March 2024, and established her own Tammy Tyrell for Tasmania party in September 2024. Jack Quail of The Australian reports Tyrrell will sit with Labor’s Right faction, meaning she will have to overcome colleague Helen Polley to score a winnable spot on the Senate ticket at the 2028 election.
• I made a lengthy appearance with Tim Lester on the Seven Network’s The Issue podcast to discuss you-know-what, which I’m told was quite good.
A rare state poll for WA finds Labor still ahead, but no longer overwhelmingly in command.
DemosAU offers the rare spectacle of a Western Australian state poll, which finds Labor down three points since the last such poll in February to 33%, with the Liberals up two to 23%, the Nationals down two to 2% and One Nation up one to 18%. Labor holds a 53-47 lead over the Liberals on two-party preferred, in from 57-43 at both the previous poll and the March 2025 election. Roger Cook leads Basil Zempilas 44-33 on preferred premier, in from 43-30. Roger Cook is up one on both approval, to 35%, and disapproval, to 29%, and Basil Zempilas is up three on both approval, to 31%, and disapproval, to 34%. The Cook government scores net negative ratings for its performance across eight issue areas, ranging from minus three on education and schools to minus 54 on housing.
The West Australian has a report on the poll, and the pollster should shortly be publishing a release with detailed voting breakdowns. The poll was conducted May 29 to June 11 from a sample of 1015.
A fifth pollster find One Nation leading on the primary vote, with Pauline Hanson leading on a three-way preferred prime minister question.
The monthly Resolve Strategic poll for Nine Newspapers joins most others in showing One Nation leading on the primary vote in its latest monthly result, with a five-point surge placing them at 29%. Labor is down one to 28%, the Coalition are down three to 20% (16% among women, equal with the Greens), and the Greens are steady on 12%.
Anthony Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is up one to 35%, while his poor and very poor rating is down one to 55%. Angus Taylor is respectively up one to 38% and up three to 32%. This pollster has been unusual in having Angus Taylor leading Anthony Albanese on preferred prime minister and does so again now, though the margin has narrowed from 33-30 to 32-31. A three-way preferred prime minister question, asked for the first time, suggests most of those favouring Taylor over Albanese in fact prefer Pauline Hanson to either: she is at 33% compared with 29% for Albanese and 16% for Taylor.
The poll again inquired about the three main contentious budget measures, finding 33% in favour of the negative gearing changes (down two on last month) with 26% opposed (up five); 31% in favour of the capital gains tax measures (down five) and 31% opposed (up 10); and 29% in favour of the changes to taxing of family trusts (down five) and 34% opposed (up 11). The poll was conducted Monday to Saturday from a sample of 1801.
With less than five months to go, a second Victorian state poll finds Labor running third behind One Nation.
A two-month Victorian state polling drought has ended with a bang, with Freshwater Strategy reporting earlier in the week, DemosAU doing so today, and Resolve Strategic presumably set to follow next week. All of which would seem to be an unwelcome development for Jacinta Allan, with DemosAU joining Freshwater Strategy in showing Labor running third behind One Nation. The Coalition is up a point on the last DemosAU poll in February to 30%, with Labor down two to 21% and One Nation up two to 23%, and the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 53-47 to 55-45.
Jacinta Allan’s positive rating is up two to 18%, but her negative rating is up four to 57% with neutral down six to 25%. Jess Wilson is up five on positive to 32%, down three on neutral to 46% and down two on negative to 22%. The poll was conducted Sunday to Thursday from a sample of 1056. A full report including extensive demographic breakdowns will presumably be available on the pollster’s website shortly – Freshwater Strategy has now published its equivalent from the poll earlier in the week.
The latest Roy Morgan poll supports trends now clearly established elsewhere, with One Nation first and the Coalition a very distant third.
The weekly Roy Morgan series joins Newspoll, YouGov, RedBridge Group and DemosAU in having One Nation leading on the primary vote, surging two-and-a-half points to 29.5%, with Labor down a point to 26% and the Coalition down two-and-a-half to 17.5%. The latter result is half-a-point off the record worst poll result the Coalition recorded in a RedBridge Group poll in March, and puts them barely ahead of the Greens, up two to 15.5%. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1631. A Labor-versus-One Nation two-party result has Labor leading 53.5-46.5 – I’m unclear if this is respondent-allocated or based on speculative estimates. Conventional two-party results have Labor leading the Coalition 56-44 on respondent-allocated (out from 55.5-44.5) and 54-46 using previous election preference flows (out from 53.5-46.5).
The Australian Electoral Commission has published finalised results from the Farrer by-election, so we now have the preference distribution and preference-flow-by-candidate data. The latter reveals that Liberal preferences recorded a surprisingly evenly 59.0-41.0 split in favour of One Nation winner David Farley over independent Michelle Milthorpe, compared with 69.1-30.9 among Nationals voters. The split among Greens voters was fully 91.8-8.2 in favour of Milthorpe.