Victorian Newspoll and Labor leadership spill

On the eve of a Labor spill motion, Newspoll records disastrous personal ratings for Jacinta Allan.

The Australian brings an adroitly timed state Newspoll result for Victoria, which has Labor on 28%, the Coalition on 31%, One Nation on 19% and the Greens on 13%, with the Coalition leading Labor 52-48 on two-party preferred. This is distinctly weaker for One Nation than other recent polling, and suggests Labor to be more competitive than recent conventional wisdom has allowed. Any notion that this might boost Jacinta Allan ahead of today’s party room vote is torpedoed by her personal ratings of 25% approval and 71% disapproval, which Kevin Bonham informs us is the “worst net satisfaction recorded by a state Premier in the history of Newspoll”. Jess Wilson is on 47% approval and 39% disapproval and leads 51-32 on preferred premier.

Respondents were asked who they would favour to form government out of Labor, the Coalition and One Nation, with respective results of 41%, 35% and 18%, and who they would prefer out of “Jess Wilson and the Liberal-Nationals in alliance with One Nation” and “Jacinta Allan and Labor”, which respectively scored 48% and 42%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1035.

As for today’s spill motion, the Herald Sun quotes sources close to Ben Carroll saying they expect 40 to 45 votes in favour with 25 against and four undecided, which supporters of a “confident” Jacinta Allan describe as “inflated”. Should it pass, the question will arise as to whether Jacinta Allan will attempt to pursue the matter unto a ballot of the party membership, as she indicated she would in a letter to the party’s state secretary. This would require 14 party room members to support her nomination, which they might hesitate to do given it would involve a four-to-six week process during which an interim leader would need to be appointed who was not contesting the ballot. The Australian reports “disagreement within Labor” as to whether caucus has the power to prevent this by changing back to the more traditional method of choosing a leader.

The Herald Sun also published results on Saturday of polling conducted by JWS Research for Australian Energy Producers targeting 1000 respondents across “28 marginal and significant seats between June 26 and July 3” that shows a 9% swing from Labor to the Coalition in two-party preferred terms, compared with the 7% recorded by Newspoll. The primary votes were Coalition 29%, One Nation 24%, Labor 23% and Greens 14%, which offers only so much insight in the absence of detail on which seats were polled, though we are told the equivalent results in 2022 were Labor 44%, Coalition 44% and Greens 9% (One Nation is credited with 1%, but presumably only ran in a handful of the seats).

Federal polls: DemosAU MRP poll and Roy Morgan (open thread)

The latest endeavour to project seat outcomes from a large-sample poll points to a hung parliament and a decimated Coalition.

DemosAU has published its quarterly MRP poll for Capital Brief, which combines demographic modelling with a large-sample survey of 9343. This has produced its most radical result yet with respect to One Nation, showing a median projection of 68 seats for Labor (down 15 on the first quarter MRP and 26 on the 2025 election), from a primary vote that drops three points to 26%; 60 for One Nation (up eight on the first quarter), who gain three to 30%; 13 for the Coalition (up four on the first quarter and down 30 on the 2025 election), who are steady on 21%; three for the Greens (up two on both the first quarter and the 2025 election result), who are up one to 13%; and six others (up one on the first quarter, but down six on 2025).

Compared with the first quarter result, One Nation is now rated the more likely winner in Labor-held Paterson, Eden-Monaro, Ballarat, McEwen, Petrie, Dickson, Moore, Pearce, Bass, Lyons and Lingiari, together with Liberal-held Cook; the Coalition has recovered front-runner position from One Nation in Casey, Flinders and Moncrieff, as has Rebekha Sharkie in Mayo; Liberal are now rated favourites over Labor in Chisholm; and the Greens are rated favourites in Labor-held Richmond and Brisbane. The survey period was May 27 to July 11; plentiful further detail is available from the pollster’s full report.

Also out yesterday was the weekly Roy Morgan result, which has Labor steady on 27.5%, One Nation up three to 25.5%, the Coalition down one to 22% and the Greens steady on 14%. Labor’s respondent-allocated two-party lead over One Nation narrows from 55-45 to 53.5-46.5, and its leads over the Coalition narrow from 56-44 to 54-46 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 53-47 to 52.5-47.5 on 2025 election preference flows. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1643.

Secret Harbour by-election: August 29

The resurgent One Nation gets its first chance to flex its new muscles at a by-election for an historically safe Labor state seat in Western Australia.

I have a guide up for the Western Australian state by-election for Secret Harbour, where events have moved quickly since Paul Papalia announced his retirement on July 6. The by-election will be held on August 29, and candidates are already in place following the ballot paper draw on Tuesday. A remarkable field of 16 candidates has emerged, with six independents joining candidates from 10 of the state’s 13 registered parties. This is unlikely to dent perceptions of the by-election as a contest between Labor and One Nation, in an area whose low ethnic diversity and large trades workforce reflects that of the South Australian seats where One Nation emerged as a threat to Labor in March.

Labor’s candidate is Georgia Tree, a former staffer to local federal MP Madeleine King and government relations employee at Woodside. One Nation has endorsed Luke Herdegen, a gymnasium franchisee and former national weightlifting champion. Basil Zempilas’s contention that any defeat for Labor would a win for the Liberals said much about his party’s prospects, though it has a seemingly strong candidate in Ryan Robertson, a Rockingham councillor, real estate agent and former submariner, the latter a particular asset in a seat located near the HMAS Stirling naval base.

Non-federal polls: Resolve Strategic NSW and DemosAU ACT

New polls find the One Nation disruption at full force in New South Wales, but largely only a problem for the Liberals in the ACT.

I am late in noticing the Resolve Strategic poll of New South Wales state voting intention for Nine Newspapers, which follows the pollster’s usual pattern in combining responses from the state from the last two monthly national polls. One Nation is up three points to a new peak of 25%, while Labor returns to 29% after a three-point spike in March-April, the Coalition drops three to a new low of 23%, and the Greens gain one to 11%. Chris Minns’ lead over Kellie Sloane as preferred premier shifts from 38-18 to 36-16. The sample for the poll was 1100.

Also out this week was a rare Australian Capital Territory poll conducted by DemosAU, with results providing little indication that Labor’s 26-year hegemony is about to come to an end. Labor was on 32%, compared with 34.1% at the October 2024 election; the Liberals were on 21%, compared with 33.5%; and the Greens were on 11%, compared with 12.2%. One Nation, who did not contest the 2024 election, were on 14%. A generic independent category accounted for 19%, with 3% designated as others. When non-major party voters were asked who they were favoured to form government, 42% of the independent voters opted for Labor compared with only 18% for the Liberals. Chief Minister Andrew Barr was viewed positively by 33%, neutrally by 29% and negatively by 38%, while Liberal leader Mark Parton respectively scored 26%, 48% and 28%. The poll was conducted July 2 to 16 from a sample of 979.

Morgan: Labor 27.5, Coalition 23, One Nation 22.5 (open thread)

Roy Morgan maintains the mixed picture of recent polling for One Nation, reversing their strong gain of a week ago.

The weekly federal poll from Roy Morgan has maintained its recent volatile form with respect to One Nation, who return to the 22.5% they recorded a fortnight ago before spiking to 26% last week. The beneficiaries on this occasion are the Coalition, up three to 23%, while Labor is steady on 27.5% and the Greens are up a point-and-a-half to 14%. Labor’s respondent-allocated two-party lead over One Nation is out from 52.5-47.5 to 55-45. Against the Coalition, Labor’s lead is out from 54-46 to 56-44 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 52.5-47.5 to 53-47 on previous election preferences. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1679.

Federal redistributions: South Australia, Tasmania and the ACT

Radical boundary changes in Tasmania, minor ones in South Australia and the ACT, and limited political implications all round.

Assuming the government serves out a more-or-less full term, the next federal election will be held under new boundaries in three states and one territory, the exceptions being New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and the Northern Territory. Queensland’s redistribution has been held up pending official confirmation that its population growth will not entitle it to a new seat, but the other three redistribution processes have reached their fruition over the past fortnight, barring the delicate question of nomenclature.

The finalised boundaries for South Australia cancel two of the changes from the proposed boundaries published in March, leaving only the transfer of 10% of Spence’s voters to its northern Adelaide neighbour Makin, and small transfers from Mayo to Boothby and Barker. The former have little impact on the substantial Labor margins in both of the affected seats, while the latter adds half-a-point to Rebekha Sharkie’s margin in Mayo. Beyond that, the regional and remote seat of Grey, which bears the name of a colonial governor, will become O’Donoghue, in honour of the late Aboriginal leader Lowitja O’Donoghue.

Tasmania’s redistribution is as radical as South Australia’s is conservative, and has an extra layer of interest in also providing the boundaries for state elections (votes shares at state level have been calculated by Ben Raue). Where formerly Clark accommodated Hobart’s core and Franklin its south and east, the redistribution has made a hard boundary out of the Derwent River, causing Franklin — which has the proposed new name of Tongerlongeter (subject of a critical opinion piece by Tony Abbott in The Weekend Australian) — to lose the suburbs and periphery south of Hobart to Clark. Clark’s gains are balanced by transferring northern Hobart to what had previously been the largely rural electorate of Lyons, while Franklin extends up the state’s east coast as far as Bicheno, taking a large chunk of what had formerly been Lyons.

For all their scope, the impact of the changes appears remarkably modest in electoral terms. None of the changes I estimate in the Labor-versus-Liberal two-party margins reach a full percentage point, and One Nation, who would appear to be a competitive prospect in the state’s regional seats, has had minimal change to its primary vote shares. Losing a large chunk of the territory he has serviced since 2010 will not help Andrew Wilkie, but he likely remains safe: the transfer to Lyons (which accounts for 43% of the enrolment) is not his strongest territory, and future state independent Peter George scored 22.9% in the area being gained from Franklin, much of which would doubtless transfer to Wilkie.

The minimal changes arising from the Australian Capital Territory redistribution were covered in a post a fortnight ago. My own calculations for new margins and party vote shares are accounted for in very great detail in spreadsheets for South Australia, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory. Similar exercises can be found on the sites of Antony Green and Ben Raue.

Newspoll: Labor 30, One Nation 30, Coalition 19 (open thread)

Newspoll bucks recent trends in finding One Nation as strong as ever, with Labor failing to sustain a gain from last time.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor losing a three-point gain it made in the last poll three weeks ago, putting them back at 30%. The uneven polling picture for One Nation is maintained with a one-point increase to 30%, only one point shy of its record result from the poll before last. The Coalition is up two to 19% after descending from 21% in April to 17% late last month. The Greens are down a point to 12%, having bumped around in a range from 11% to 13% since the start of the term.

Anthony Albanese is on 39% approval and 57% disapproval while Angus Taylor is on 30% and 51%, which in both cases are down one on approval and steady on disapproval. Albanese’s lead over Angus Taylor on preferred prime minister narrows from 47-36 to 44-36, and a three-way version of the question has Albanese down three to 46%, Taylor up two to 22%, and Pauline Hanson up one to 32%. Hanson is up a point on approval to 47% and down two on disapproval to 47%. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1238.

Andy Burnham to be next UK PM

This article also covers upcoming UK by-elections for Greater Manchester mayor and Clacton and polls for the US midterm elections.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

To qualify for a membership ballot, a candidate for UK Labour leadership required 20% of all Labour MPs (81 MPs in the current parliament). Andy Burnham is the only candidate to meet this threshold, winning endorsements from 379 of the 403 Labour MPs (94%). He will be elected unopposed to replace Keir Starmer as Labour leader and PM and will become PM on Monday.

The Election Maps UK aggregate of national polls has the populist right Reform leading with 26.0%, followed by Labour at 20.8%, the Conservatives 19.8%, the Greens 13.0%, the Liberal Democrats 12.1% and the populist right Restore 3.2%. There has been movement since late May against Reform and towards Labour and the Conservatives. Seat projections give Reform 250 of the 650 seats, but they would reach a majority with the support of the Conservatives (87 seats).

The Greater Manchester mayoral by-election to replace Burnham after his June 18 election to the UK parliament will occur on July 30. It will be the biggest UK by-election. This by-election will be held using the “supplementary vote” system, where voters get two preferences. Mayoral elections prior to 2024 used this system, but the Conservatives regressed to first-past-the-post for 2024-26 mayoral elections. Labour reverted to the supplementary vote.

In the 2024 mayoral election, Burnham won 63.4%, with the Conservatives a very distant second with 10.4%, followed by 7.6% for an independent, 7.5% Reform, 6.9% Greens and 4.2% Lib Dems. An early July Find Out Now poll gave Labour 38%, the Greens 22%, Reform 19%, Restore 9% and the Conservatives 8%. After preferences, Labour defeats the Greens 64-36 and Reform 66-34.

On July 7, Reform leader Nigel Farage announced he would resign as Member for Clacton and recontest Clacton at the ensuing August 13 by-election. No other well-known party will contest this by-election. It’s likely Farage’s main opponent will be joke candidate Count Binface. In 2024, Farage defeated the Conservatives in Clacton by 46.2-27.9 with 16.2% for Labour.

US updates

At November midterm elections, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 senators will be up for election. At the 2024 elections, Republicans won the House over Democrats by 220-215 and the Senate by 53-47.

Owing to Republican gerrymandering, Democrats need about a four-point popular vote margin to win the House. The two senators per state rule helps Republicans, and Democrats will need a double-digit popular vote margin to win the Senate on a uniform swing.

In Nate Silver’s aggregate of the generic ballot, Democrats lead Republicans by 48.0-41.9, a 6.1-point margin that is down from a peak of 7.1 points in late May. Donald Trump’s net approval has climbed from a low of -20.2 in late May to -17.0.

Democratic nominee Graham Platner withdrew from the Maine Senate contest last Friday after sexual assault allegations. Democrats have until July 27 to select a replacement candidate. Maine should be the easiest gain for Democrats as Kamala Harris defeated Trump there by 6.9 points in 2024.

Republicans currently control the House by 219-212 with four vacancies. Two Democrats qualified for the August 18 runoff in California 14 after a June 16 jungle primary. After the death of the Democratic incumbent in late April, a jungle primary for Georgia 13 will occur on July 28 with a runoff if needed on August 25. No special for the two other vacancies that occurred in April (one Democrat, one Republican) has yet been scheduled.

Other elections

The 56 Cypriot seats are elected by proportional representation in six multi-member electorates. At the May 24 election, the conservative DISY won 17 seats (steady since 2021), the communist AKEL 15 (steady), the populist right ELAM eight (up four) and the centrist DIKO eight (down one). The DISY retained government.

Malta has 13 five-member seats using proportional representation with preferences, with extra seats added to ensure overall proportionality. At the May 30 election, Labour defeated the conservative Nationalists by 42 seats to 37, winning its fourth successive term (44-35 to Labour in 2022). Malta retains a strong two-party system, with Labour defeating the Nationalists on vote shares by 51.8-44.7.

In final results of the June 7 Peruvian presidential runoff election, right-winger Fujimori defeated left-winger Sánchez by 50.13-49.87. This was Fujimori’s first win after three consecutive runoff losses.

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