Two developments on the Tasmanian election, one being the publication of the Poll Bludger’s election guide, including an overview page and a guide for each seat, each with tables, charts, interactive maps, historical detail and voluminous candidate summaries.
The other is the first public opinion poll of the campaign, which suggests Labor is best placed to emerge as the largest party and has at least some hope of stitching together a government arrangement with the independents rather than the Greens. Conducted by YouGov between June 15 to 25 from a sample size of 1287, the poll has Liberal on 31%, down from 36.7% at the March 2024 election; Labor on 34%, up from 29.0%; the Greens on 13%, down from 13.9%; and a generic independents response on 18%, up from 9.6%. Jeremy Rockliff maintains a 43-36 lead over Dean Winter as preferred premier.
The poll having been conducted before the declaration of nominations on Friday, the independents result (together with the lack of a result for the Nationals, who are fielding candidates in the three non-Hobart divisions) might be thought imprecise. But with the usual caveats applying for small sum-samples, the breakdowns by electorate show a pattern of independent support consistent with recent form, peaking at 30% in Clark, where Kristie Johnston seeks re-election and former senior Liberal member Elise Archer hopes to re-establish a career independent of her old party. The result in Franklin is 20%, as it will probably need to be if Peter George is able to parlay his strong federal election result into a state seat without depriving independent incumbent David O’Byrne. The 19% result in Braddon is encouraging for Craig Garland, and 15% in Bass likewise for Rebekah Pentland.
An question that allowed respondents to choose three out of ten potential motivations for their vote choice interestingly included both “pro” and “anti” options for the Macquarie Point AFL stadium, salmon farming and privatisation. The Macquarie Point options scored 55% between them, shading “investing in more health” on 52%, of whom 33% were “anti” and 22% “pro”, with little if any indication of geographical variation. Salmon farming had 18% for “anti” and 17% for “pro”, with some indication of urban electorates leaning to the former and regional ones the latter. Opposition to privatisation was a motivation for 34%, compared with 18% for support. Respondents were also asked if they supported or favoured privatisation and asset sales, with respective results of 36% and 47%.