Welsh Caerphilly parliamentary by-election live

Polls suggest Labour’s vote is set to collapse in a Welsh parliamentary by-election.

12:29pm Plaid Cymru GAINS Caerphilly from Labour, defeating Reform by 11.4 points, with Labour a dismal third and the Tories getting only 2%.

11:18am Friday The BBC is reporting that it’ll be close between Reform and Plaid. Turnout was 50.4% at this by-election. There’s never been a Welsh parliamentary election with a turnout over 50%. A result is “possible” around 12pm AEDT.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Polls close at 8am AEDT Friday for a Welsh parliamentary by-election in Caerphilly. Wales and Scotland use proportional representation methods but with single-member electorates. When an MP for a single-member electorate resigns or dies, a by-election occurs.

At the 2021 Welsh election, Labour won Caerphilly with 46.0%, followed by the centre-left Welsh nationalist Plaid Cymru with 28.4% and the Conservatives with 17.3%. The far-right Reform came sixth with just 1.7%. The 2021 Welsh and Scottish elections were held concurrently with English local elections in which the Conservatives under Boris Johnson easily defeated Labour.

The only poll for this by-election is a Survation poll that has Reform leading Plaid by 42-38 with just 12% for Labour and 4% for the Conservatives. If the result replicates that poll, Labour would finish a distant third in a seat they won by almost 18 points in a poor election for them, while Reform’s vote would be up 40 points.

Labour has been the dominant party at Welsh elections since the first devolved election in 1999, winning half or just under half the seats. The next election is in May 2026 using 96 members elected in 16 six-member electorates. This reform will scrap the single-member electorates, so there won’t be by-elections.

In the Election Maps UK Welsh poll aggregate, Reform leads with 29.3%, followed by Plaid at 26.5%, Labour at 18.5% and the Conservatives at 11.0%. It’s a contest between Reform and Plaid for the most seats, with the once dominant Labour in third. Scottish parliamentary elections will also occur in May 2026. The Scottish National Party (SNP) has dominated since 2011. Polls suggest they will again be the largest party, but fall well short of a majority, with Reform possibly the largest non-SNP party.

On Saturday I will write about the UK deputy Labour leadership election, the Irish presidential election and the Argentine midterm elections. UK and Irish results should start reporting on Saturday night AEDT, with Argentina on Monday morning. The Argentine midterms will be the first national elections since Javier Milei won the presidency in 2023.

Past electoral events: Moldova, Czech Republic and Japan

Moldova uses national PR to elect its 101 MPs with a 5% threshold. At the September 28 election, the governing pro-European PAS won 55 seats (down eight since 2021 but above the 51 needed for a majority), the pro-Russian BEP 26 (down six), the centre-left pro-European Alternative eight (new), the left-wing populist RN six (new) and the right-wing PPDA six (new).

The 200 Czech MPs are elected by regional PR with a 5% national threshold. At the October 3-4 election, the right-wing populist ANO won 80 seats (up eight since 2021), the conservative SPOLU 52 (down 19), the liberal STAN 22 (down 11), the left-wing Pirates 18 (up 14), the far-right SPD 15 (down five) and the right-wing Motorists 13 (new). ANO will be able to form a government with both SPD and Motorists. The previous government was a coalition of SPOLU, STAN and Pirates.

Japan’s conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has held government almost continuously since 1955. On October 4, Margaret Thatcher admirer Sanae Takaichi was elected LDP leader, replacing Shigeru Ishiba, who resigned after the LDP and their Komeito allies combined lost their majorities in both lower and upper house elections in the last year.

After Takaichi’s election as LDP leader, Komeito ditched its coalition with the LDP. However, the LDP formed a coalition with the right-wing Japan Innovation Party. On Tuesday, Takaichi defeated the centre-left Constitutional Democratic Party’s leader by 237 votes to 149 in the lower house to become Japan’s first female PM.

DemosAU: 66-34 to Labor in South Australia

Another poll finding Labor heading for a win of historic proportions in South Australia, including yet more evidence for a rising One Nation tide.

A DemosAU/Ace Strategies poll for InDaily on South Australian state voting intention all but matches the last published poll from the state in crediting Labor with a 66-34 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 47%, Liberal 21% and Greens 13%. This compares with 2022 election results of 54.4-45.6 in favour of Labor on two-party preferred, and primary votes of Labor 40.0%, Liberal 35.7% and Greens 9.1%. The poll finds Peter Malinauskas leading Vincent Tarzia for preferred premier by 58-19. Malinauskas is rated positively by 49%, neutrally by 37% and negatively by 14%, while Vincent Tarzia scores 15% positive, 55% neutral and 30% negative. Ratings are also provided for Labor members Kyam Maher and Chris Picton, and Liberals Ashton Hurn and Ben Hood.

The full report also features a Legislative Council voting intention result that has something the main result lacks in the shape of a result for One Nation, who are on a striking 12%, shading the Greens on 11%, with Labor on 37% and Liberal on 17%. Barely registering are former One Nation member Sarah Game and former Liberal member Jing Lee, whose Fair Go for Australians and Better Community parties are respectively 1% and statistically insignificant. The poll was conducted October 6 to 15 from a sample of 1006.

Some further Labor preselection news to relate since the last post here on South Australia a month ago:

• The previous episode related the surprise retirement announcements of Deputy Premier Susan Close and Treasurer Stephen Mullighan, respectively creating Labor preselection vacancies in Port Adelaide and Lee. The party has wasted little time in anointing their successors: the new candidate for Lee is David Wilkins, Port Adelaide Enfield councillor and chief-of-staff to Health Minister Chris Picton, while Port Adelaide will be contested by Cheyne Rich, deputy chief-of-staff to Peter Malinauskas.

• Labor wasted even less time preselecting new candidates for Elizabeth and Torrens, whose respective members Lee Odenwalder and Dana Wortley both announced their retirements a fortnight ago. Elizabeth will be contested by Ella Shaw, a campaign organiser at Labor’s head office; Torrens by Meagan Spencer, chief-of-staff to Primary Industries Minister Clare Scriven.

Morgan: 57-43 to Labor (open thread)

Another poll with the Coalition down and One Nation up, plus a new survey on Australians’ attitudes to the US alliance.

Roy Morgan has its monthly poll on voting intention, showing Labor’s lead on respondent-allocated two-party preferred increasing from 55.5-44.5 to 57-43. Primary votes tell a familiar story of movement from the Coalition, who are down three to 27%, to One Nation, who are up two-and-a-half to 12%, while Labor and the Greens are both up a point, to 35% and 13% respectively. The two-party result using previous election preferences also moves from 55.5-44.5 in Labor’s favour to 57-43. The accompanying report has two-party breakdowns by state, gender and age cohort. The poll was conducted September 22 to October 19 from a sample of 4908.

Also of note is United States Studies Centre’s YouGov poll on attitudes to the United States conducted August 7 to 20 from a sample of 1070. It finds 16% rating that Trump’s second term as good for Australia, compared with 24% who felt it would be before the event. Since last year, there have been double-digit movements for the worse on both directions on questions including whether the United States is mostly helpful in Asia (25% yes, 33% no), and whether it makes Australia more secure (42% yes, 55% no). Despite that, the view that Australia should withdraw from the alliance is actually down nine points to 17%, with 54% wanting it to remain. The poll was conducted August 7 to 20 from a sample of 1070.

Nine Newspapers also had Resolve Strategic results on Monday that found 36% supportive and 30% opposed to hosting nuclear submarines at HMAS Stirling in Perth from 2027, and 32% supportive and 31% opposed to offering the US a special deal on mineral resource exports.

Queensland: polls, Hinchinbrook by-election and redistribution latest

Two polls suggest the Crisafulli government is floundering a year after coming to office, as a by-election and redistribution loom.

A few things to report from the Sunshine State:

• The Brisbane Times has a result from the Queensland components of the last two monthly national Resolve Strategic polls, with a sample of 868. This has statewide primary votes of LNP 33%, down one from the July-August period; Labor steady at 32%; Greens steady at 10%; and One Nation up one to 9%. This compares with election results of LNP 41.5%, Labor 32.6%, Greens 9.9% and One Nation 8.0%, and would pan out to around 51.5-48.5 in favour of Labor with typical preference flows, compared with 53.8-46.2 to the LNP at the election (though that game may change somewhat if the government abolishes compulsory preferential voting as promised). David Crisafulli scores a net likeability rating of plus 17, down three from the previous survey period, while Steven Miles is at minus two, down one. Crisafulli holds a 39-22 lead as preferred premier, out from 40-25.

• The Courier-Mail reports a RedBridge Group-Accent Research poll targeting only south-east Queensland credits Labor with a two-party lead of 52-48, compared with what RedBridge calculates as a result of 50.3-49.7 in favour of the LNP across the corresponding area at the election held a year ago. A graphic in the print edition says the primary votes are 35% each for the LNP and Labor, 13% for the Greens and 11% for One Nation, though the accompanying report says the LNP are actually on 36%. I believe I can infer the corresponding results from the election were LNP 40.4%, Labor 35.9%, Greens 12.1% and One Nation 6.1%. The sample was 1013, but the only indication of the field work period is that it was before the government’s “energy road map” was unveiled last week.

• There is still no date for the by-election for the North Queensland seat of Hinchinbrook, which will be held due to Katter Australian Party member Nick Dametto’s plan to run for the mayor of Townsville. The LNP has confirmed a candidate in Wayde Chiesa, former regional chief executive of Regional Development Australia, described today by The Australian as the “hand-picked” candidate of David Crisafulli. The report also relates Crisafulli appointed Chiesa chief financial officer for a training firm of which he was sole director from December 2015 to April 2016, which collapsed two months after Crisafulli’s departure owing creditors $3 million. Dametto’s successor as KAP candidate will be former Townsville deputy mayor Mark Molachino, whom the LNP has been keen to point out was an ALP member from 2017 to 2024 – which Rob Katter reckons to be sour grapes because Molachino allegedly rejected the LNP’s own overtures. Labor’s candidate remains to be announced, but Steven Miles confirmed last week there would be one.

• A redistribution to update electoral boundaries that have been in place at the 2017, 2020 and 2024 elections is under way, but all the Redistribution Commission will give away about the publication of proposed boundaries is that it will be “early 2026”. The submissions have been published: as well as advocating a return to purely geographic seat names, the LNP is calling for the abolition of the rural seat of Hill, held for Katter’s Australian Party by Shane Knuth, and the inner urban seat of Toohey, held for Labor by Peter Russo, to accommodate new seats in Ipswich and Caboolture. The Greens concur on the latter point, but want the scrapped seats to be Toohey’s southern neighbour Stretton, held for Labor by James Martin, and the Townsville seat of Thuringowa, held for the LNP by Natalie Marr. Labor agrees on the need for a new seat in Caboolture but makes no suggestion as to what should be abolished.

Resolve Strategic: Labor 30, Coalition 33, Greens 12 in Victoria

A new poll suggests a big none-of-the-above vote represents a wildcard for next year’s Victorian state election.

The Age reports the bi-monthly reading of state voting intention in Victoria from Resolve Strategic has Labor down two points to 30%, the Coalition steady at 33% and the Greens steady at 12%. Despite the accompanying report’s prognostications of doom for the Liberal Party, this in fact points to a tight result on two-party preferred, though a great deal would depend on the composition and preference flows of an imposing 25% vote for other parties and independents. Brad Battin’s lead over Jacinta Allan as preferred premier has narrowed from 32-24 to 33-27.

Further questions relate to “personal safety and trust in law”, with 53% reporting they feel safe walking around their local area with 28% disagreeing, 63% reporting feeling safe in their own home and 24% disagreeing, but only 31% expressing faith in courts and the justice system with 50% disagreeing. The poll combines the Victorian results from the last two national Resolve Strategic monthly surveys.

UPDATE: Saturday’s Financial Review has a further finding from RedBridge Group that Labor leads 52-48, unchanged from the previous result in September, from primary votes of Labor 32% (steady), Coalition 37% (down one) and Greens 13% (steady). The accompanying paywalled report has breakdowns by generation, region and gender. The poll was conducted October 8 to 14 from a sample of 1501.

Developments relevant to the election to be held in November next year:

• Alex White of the Herald Sun today reports that Amelia Hamer, who was narrowly unsuccessful in her bid to recover Kooyong for the Liberals from teal independent Monique Ryan at the May federal election, will seek preselection in Malvern. The incumbent, former party leader Michael O’Brien, announced in September that he would retire at the election. The report says the preselection will also be contested by Jacqueline Blackwell, chair of the Liberal Women’s Council, but makes no mention of commercial litigator and barrister Lana Collaris, whom The Age reported had confirmed her intention to run last month.

• Chip Le Grand of The Age reports local lawyer Grant Hutchinson has emerged as the “leading conservative candidate” for the Liberal preselection in Croydon, where sitting member David Hodgett announced his retirement in August. In Rowville, which will be vacated with the retirement of Kim Wells, the “early front-runner” is said to be Irene Ling, a fundraiser for Southern Cross Kids Camps, who has the support of conservative former federal Deakin MP Michael Sukkar. However, Tahnee Wells, 28-year-old project co-ordinator at the Australian Securities and Investments Commission and daughter of Kim Wells, is a “potential wildcard”.

• Two Labor retirement announces a fortnight ago: Emma Vulin, who was diagnosed with motor neurone disease in 2024, in Pakenham; and Jordan Crugnale, who since 2018 has had a precarious hold on the seat of Bass.

• Anthony Galloway of The Australian reported last week the Liberals were considering given the Nationals a clear run against Jacinta Allan in her seat of Bendigo East, which would make sense given the Nationals’ remarkable near-success in the federal seat of Bendigo at the May federal election.

• The Herald Sun’s Backroom Baz column notes that no incumbent Liberals face preselection challenges, positing that “perhaps the new $5000 fee to nominate proved a hurdle too high for some”.

Resolve Strategic: 55-45 to Labor (open thread)

The monthly poll from Resolve Strategic records a slump for Sussan Ley, but little change on voting intention.

Nine Newspapers brings the latest monthly poll from Resolve Strategic, showing no change to Labor’s two-party lead of 55-45. Primary votes are Labor 34% (down one), Coalition 28% (up one), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 12% (steady). By far the biggest movements are negative ones for Sussan Ley, who is down eight on approval (very good plus good on performance in recent weeks) to 33% and up six on disapproval to 38%. Anthony Albanese also goes backwards, by three points to 41% on approval and two to 47%, but his lead on preferred prime minister has widened from 38-26 to 40-23. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1800, and should be followed over the coming days by a state result from Victoria.

RedBridge Group: 54-46 to Labor (open thread)

A new poll finds Labor remaining dominant over the Coalition as One Nation surges still further.

The Financial Review has a RedBridge Group/Accent Research poll giving Labor a lead of 54-46, out from 53.5-46.5 at the last such poll a month ago, from primary votes of Labor 34% (down one), Coalition 29% (down one), Greens 11% (steady), and a surging One Nation on 14% (up three). The accompanying report reveals One Nation is at 13% among millennials, 15% among Gen-X and 17% among baby boomers – I hope to have more to offer in the way of demographic breakdowns later today.

The poll also finds an 37% for and against the notion that the Coalition should drop its support for net zero; 35% holding that the Albanese government has the right priorities, with 47% disagreeing; and 16% holding that Sussan Ley’s Coalition is ready for government, with 55% disagreeing. It was conducted September 25 to October 7 from a sample of 1997.

UPDATE: Full results here – unfortunately not including any state breakdowns on this occasion, but together with the One Nation age breakdowns cited above, we learn that its support among the youngest cohort (“Gen-Z”, presumably meaning 18-34) is well below the others at 6%.

Newspoll: 57-43 to Labor (open thread)

Such changes as the latest Newspoll records maintain a pattern of rising support for One Nation and weakening personal ratings for Sussan Ley.

The latest Newspoll from The Australian records only minor changes on three weeks ago on voting intention, with Labor’s two-party lead in from 58-42 to 57-43 from primary votes of Labor 37% (up one), Coalition 28% (up one), Greens 12% (down one) and One Nation 11% (up one). Anthony Albanese is up two on approval to 47% and down two on disapproval to 48%, while Sussan Ley is down one to 31% up two to 51%. Albanese’s lead on preferred prime minister is out from 51-31 to 52-30, The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1264.

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