Click here for full display of Western Australian state election results.
Wednesday, March 26
The Pilbara preference distribution has now been published, which is particularly of interest because no running two-candidate count was conducted, leaving us flying blind as to how the final result would look based on primary votes of Labor 36.1%, Liberal 24.0% and Nationals 16.4%. My preference estimate had Labor winning by about 0.8%, and the ABC’s slightly higher. With the conclusion of the count on Thursday, we were told only that Labor had won. Now we know how much by: 207 votes, or 0.6%.
Monday, March 24
The West Australian reports a recount following the preference distribution in Kalamunda confirmed a Liberal win by 82 votes, one vote less than the initial count (although the numbers in the media feed, and hence my results page, don’t reflect this). So the lower house numbers are now confirmed at Labor 46, Liberal seven and Nationals six. Geraldton is the first seat for which a preference distribution has been published, and it shows independent Shane van Styn dropped out at the last exclusion with 7126 votes to defeated Labor member Lara Dalton’s 7775 and Nationals victor Kirrilee Warr’s 11,339. The WAEC relates the upper house will not be concluded until the second week of April, pleading “a high number of voters marking more than one square above the line, which has resulted in a more complex count”.
Saturday, March 22
Labor’s win in Kalgoorlie by a 1.6% margin was confirmed today, the Nationals evidently having failed to have closed the gap with the Liberals on preferences and potentially winning the seat on a stronger flow of preferences than the Liberal candidate could manage. The preference count in Kalamunda will be conducted tomorrow, and will confirm a narrow Liberal victory unless the process turns up an error. Two useful posts from Antony Green, one on the upper house count, in which he raises doubts about Labor’s presumed sixteenth seat based on how the totals might look when below-the-line votes have added, and another comparing results from 2017 and 2025.
Thursday, March 20
The distribution of preferences was conducted yesterday in Albany, confirming the Nationals’ win the the Liberals’ failure to reach the final count. Albany and the other known known of Churchlands are among the seats identified by the WAEC as “Awaiting Declaration” rather than “Count in Progress” – if these means the preference distributions have been conducted (UPDATE: Confirmed), this presumably also means confirmation of a Nationals win in Warren-Blackwood and a Labor win in Pilbara. The other seats so identified are Bateman, Collie-Preston, Fremantle, Geraldton, Jandakot, Murray-Wellington and Riverton.
Elsewhere, the Liberal lead in Kalamunda fell from 83 to 64 as one presumably last batch of absents broke 50-31 to Labor. That increases by about 20 when factoring in the result at Wooroloo Primary School, which for some reason is lacking a TCP count. That leaves declaration votes, of which there are likely to be about 300. Comparison with other metropolitan seats that have counted their provisionals suggests a Labor gain of about 30 would be par for the course, but a 270-151 split in Riverton offers one hopeful precedent for Labor.
Wednesday, March 19
The West Australian reports the preference distribution was conducted today in Churchlands, though the result hasn’t been published yet, confirming Basil Zempilas the winner with a margin of 0.7%, or 376 votes. It also reports Albany and Warren-Blackwood will follow, both to be won by the Nationals from Labor if the Liberals remain in third place, which they will unless benefit from very unusual preference flows. Nothing new today from Kalamunda, where Labor can vaguely hope a few hundred outstanding provisional votes can overturn an 83-vote Liberal lead.
Tuesday, March 18
Follows of my live results have a new toy to play with in the shape of a colour-coded map, with light shadings for seats still in doubt and dark ones for those that have been called. This may not look all that impressive with most of the results on, but on future election nights it will present the spectacle of starting out white and then filling out as votes come in and seats are called.
We’re starting to see Provisional Votes entering the count, and clearly these include election day enrolment votes (which weren’t a thing at previous elections), because they’ve gone from being a handful of votes per seat to several hundred. They have strongly favoured Labor over Liberal in the three metropolitan seats where they have been added, though not in Geraldton and the Labor-versus-independent count in Fremantle. They have not been counted yet in Kalamunda, where a tiny handful of votes today reduced the Liberal lead from 88 to 83. My system now says Liberal ahead because I’ve turned off the projection, which was insisting on putting Labor’s nose in front for reasons that could probably use looking into.
Provisionals contributed to a further reduction in Basil Zempilas’s lead in Churchlands, breaking 244-188 to Labor on top of a 369-305 break to Labor on absents. His lead has gone from 852 to 375 over two days, but as the count is now at 90.3% of the enrolment, slightly exceeding the final turnout in 2021, that may be the end of the matter. Updates in Pilbara continue to not tell us what we need to know, which is the Labor-versus-Liberal two-party preferred.
The Liberals have been fading over the past few days in the upper house count, suggesting they may not get to 11 seats. My revised assessment of the situation is Labor 16, Liberal ten, Greens four, Nationals two and One Nation, Legalise Cannabis and Australian Christians one each, with the last two seats likely a game of musical chairs between the eleventh Liberal, the second One Nation and the first Animal Justice.
Monday, March 17
Results would be getting close to final in a lot of cases now, with the deadline for postal votes having been on Thursday, although a lack of provisional votes suggests we’re not there yet (UPDATE: On reflection, the fact that votes have only been counted for 75% of enrolled voters suggest that very substantial numbers of votes are yet to be counted). The Liberal lead in Kalamunda went from 98 to 88 today, with postals favouring Labor 436-418 and absents favouring Liberal 397-389. My projected Labor lead naturally assumes there are still some votes left out there, but as noted that may not be the case. There were only five provisional votes in 2021, but it may be different this time if the category encompasses those who took advantage of the introduction of election day enrolment.
Labor did well on yesterday’s counting in Churchlands, winning the absent votes 1721-1497 and a presumably final batch of postals 463-328, but this only gets as far as reducing Basil Zempilas’s 852-vote lead to 493. A batch of postals in Fremantle broke 313-295 to independent Kate Hulett, reducing Labor member Simone McGurk’s lead to from 491 to 473. Even without the correction of an apparent error that I believe to be penalising them by 140 votes in South Perth, Labor now looks home and hosed there after splits of 801-611 on absents and 313-255 on postals pushed the lead from 315 to 563 – certainly the ABC is now calling it for Labor.
Postals in Kalgoorlie broke 105-83 to Labor, increasing their lead over the Liberals from 394 to 416, although the outside chance of the Nationals doing better on preferences than I’m presuming and sneaking past first the Liberals and then Labor is something we won’t know about until the full preference distribution. The distribution continues to hold the secret of the result in Pilbara, where the counting of 1208 absent votes did not fundamentally change the situation.
Saturday, March 15
A new thread for what remains of the Western Australian state election count, the earlier one being in danger of falling off the bottom of the landing page. For those who have just joined us, what I estimate to be a 12.4% swing off the superlative 2021 result (the ABC only gets to 11.9%, based on what are probably more careful preference estimates than my own) has yielded the Liberals remarkably little in the way of seats: only Carine, Nedlands and Murray-Wellington are being called as Liberal gains by my highly conservative system, though the ABC is undoubtedly on safe ground in adding Churchlands.
In the regions, Labor has lost Geraldton to the Nationals and has conceded defeat in Albany (my own system would seem to be crediting Labor with too many preferences in the latter case). It’s unclear whether the winner will be the Nationals, as my system considers more likely, or the Liberals, whom the ABC favours. It’s a similar story in Warren-Blackwood by the ABC’s reckoning, but I’m now calling it for the Nationals after adjusting the parameters that were allowing for the possibility of the Liberals making the final count. The Liberals won’t win Kalgoorlie unless something unusual happens on absent votes, but it’s mathematically possible that the Nationals will make the final count in their stead and sneak home on a stronger flow of preferences than the Liberals are receiving.
There are a number of seats the ABC’s system is calling for Labor which mine isn’t, where I see no reason to doubt the ABC. Labor has survived an early scare at the hands of an independent in Fremantle, although there are suggestions of a legal challenge. The ABC isn’t calling South Perth for Labor, but I believe there’s an error in the WAEC’s numbers that will tip it over when it’s corrected. All told, I make out three serious points at issue: Kalamunda, which is going down to the wire between Liberal and Labor; Pilbara, where we must await the final preference count to see if Nationals preferences flow tightly enough to the Liberals to get them over the line; and the aforementioned Liberals-versus-Nationals race in Albany. If the Liberals fail in all three, they will suffer the ignominy of failing to recover official opposition status from the Nationals.
The Greens will hold the balance of power in their own right in the reformed 37-seat upper house, adding four seats to what looks like 16 for Labor. The remainder will go Liberal 11, Nationals two and one each for One Nation, Legalise Cannabis and Australian Christians, with one still up in the air. Animal Justice are on 0.43 quotas and One Nation’s second candidate will be on 0.35 after the election of the first, with the latter presumably to do well out of preferences from the Libertarians, Stop Pedophiles! and Shooters Fishers and Farmers (the latter of whom flopped after committing the rookie error of identifying themselves on the ballot paper as “SFFPWA”). An unknown quantity is “Independent” on 0.48 quotas – if most of this went to the ticket headed by former Legalise Cannabis member Sophie Moermond, rather than the ungrouped candidates, she too could be in contention. (UPDATE: It’s been pointed out to me that the ungrouped candidates haven’t been counted yet because these are below-the-line votes, so she would seem a real chance).
For those of you who haven’t just joined us, an update on Saturday’s counting. There was, at last, substantial progress, though most of it was in seats that aren’t in doubt. One exception was Murray-Wellington, which both the ABC and myself are calling for the Liberals after 5498 absents broke 2776-2719 in their favour, putting their candidate 837 ahead. My projection of Labor’s lead in Pilbara was cut from 1.4% to 0.8% due to what I think must have been a correction in an error from the first batch of postals, though it’s hard to disentangle because new postals were added to the count as well. In any case, Labor had an implausible 54.6% of the postals as of Friday, but has a far more plausible 32.3% now. Clearly we’re going to have to wait for the preference distribution here — my estimate has Labor ahead by 0.8% and the ABC’s has it at 0.5%, but estimates is all they are. The WAEC has decided against conducting a Labor-versus-Liberal preference throw that would clarify the matter, seemingly due to the potential for a Nationals win that my recalibrated model is now ruling out entirely. Labor continues to claw back on absents in Warren-Blackwood, today’s batch breaking 470-398, but my narrower error margins mean my system is now calling it for the Nationals.
PS Thanks in advance to those who may answer the above posts, I will be out shortly for the rest of the day so may not see until some time tomorrow, but will definitely check then.
Kalamunda to a recount after the margin came down to 83 votes but highly unlikely that gets overturned.
Fargo61: Amazingly given how terrible its electoral system otherwise generally was until the recent reforms, WA uses Weighted Inclusive Gregory.
BTSays:
Kyran O’Donnell was the Lib MP from 2017-21. And yeah, his and the Nats prefs definitely swung that – Labor and the Greens combined only got 38%, which isn’t usually a winning position for them. Compare to Albany, where the 3cp was pretty similar but the Libs were the ones getting distributed – the Nats won that easily.
Comparing the projected 3cp and 2cp in seats where the top 3 was ALP/Lib/Nat in some order, with the % of prefs going from Lib / Nat to Labor:
Libs 3rd:
Central Wheatbelt: 13.2%
Albany: 5.0% (bloody hell!)
Geraldton: 10.6% (note an independent actually came third here)
Warren-Blackwood: 17.9%
Nats 3rd:
Collie-Preston: 18.1%
Kalgoorlie: 26.0%
Kimberley: 24.0%
Pilbara: 38.7%
Obviously that ignores the third party carrying preferences it picked up from others (eg: O’Donnell in Kalgoorlie), but clearly Nat prefs leak more than Libs do. Pilbara and Albany are outliers in opposite directions – Lib prefs splitting 95% Nat / 5% ALP is on the edge of believability.
@Bird of paradox:
Re: 95% of Liberal preferences going to the Nats in Albany, one has to keep in mind that a not-insignificant share of those votes will have originated with the 5.1% of the primary vote won by the Australian Christians, almost all of whom would have put Labor and the Greens at the bottom of their ballot paper order. Lionetti (who polled 7%) also seems a fairly Christian Right-aligned candidate from what I could see (as well as being pro-live export and pro-gun), so his voters’ preferences would likely be much the same.
46 lower house seats for WA Labor, out of 59, assuming Kalamunda doesn’t revert to the Labor column after the recount.
That’s a great result for Roger Cook, who seems very solid to me as a Premier. The fact that Labor retained seats like Scarborough and South Perth and Bateman, which are traditionally solid Liberal Party areas – worth highlighting too.
B of P 10.19pm
MT for your informative reply.
Curious how much less loyal Nats are to Libs than the other way round – are they just more bloody-minded, independent red-neck type people than Libs?
38% to Labor in Pilbara absolutely cost Libs a seat where, on paper, the 1st prefs looked like delivering a solid Lib gain – though I’m still a bit flabbergasted that this suddenly turned into a 56% win for Labor (nobody answered that post, but perhaps yours on Nat prefs partially does).
26% to Labor in Kalgoorlie absolutely cost Libs too, 15% or lower would have resulted in a Lib win.
@Ticktock
“. . .Re: 95% of Liberal preferences going to the Nats in Albany, one has to keep in mind that a not-insignificant share of those votes will have originated with the 5.1% of the primary vote won by the Australian Christians. . .”
Well that’s what you’d expect to happen, especially with the Lib candidate being unashamed of his Christian / biblical values.
But the fact is, if they had gone mostly to Lib then you might have expected Libs to overhaul Nats into the final count. Christians had 5.1% vs. a combined 3.9% for ON and SFF. However, an Indy by the interesting name of Mario Lionetti won 7.2% so if his votes preferenced Nats over Libs then that would have overturned the Christians’ prefs.
Another curiosity for me, not being an Australian, is how the left-wing parties / Indys will often pref Nats above Libs (I think that’s correct), even though on paper Nats are more right-wing overall.
I’m not sure if this is because Libs stir up more animosity and Nats are more under the radar, or if Nats are perceived as being at least more authentic, or what.
Obviously local reasons/candidates/tactical voting, will also scramble any theories on this point – which only apply anyway in states where Nats and Libs stand against each other – so I’m not sure how much can be said authoritatively on this. (Anecdotes are interesting but can be misleading as well.)
@BTSays:
Regarding left-wing parties often preferencing the Nats ahead of the Liberals, I can answer that, particularly as it pertains to the Greens.
There have been some Nationals candidates and members who have been willing to work with environmentalists when it comes to issues like Lock The Gate (stopping coal seam gas and fracking on farmland) from the point-of-view of farmers’ rights (the same is even true of some Shooters candidates!), whereas the Liberals are diametrically opposed on pretty much everything. This sometimes (but not always) leads to the Greens putting the Nationals ahead of the Liberals in lower-house contests where they are both running. The thinking is probably along similar lines for other left-wing minor parties and candidates, particularly if they have environmentalist concerns.
Carine and Geraldton both listed as “Results Declared” now, with preference distributions up. Carine a simple 2CP count, won on first preferences with only four candidates, and the count in Geraldton didn’t change the order as candidates were knocked out. So both pretty simple distributions.
Geraldton was kinda close on the 3cp – Nat 43.2, ALP 29.6, van Styn 27.2. Close but no cigar.
Libs came fourth, and their prefs went Nat 68.3, van Styn 22.4, ALP 9.2.
Also kinda amusing that Legalise Cannabis had 11 votes exhaust out of the 711 they ended up with – higher than any excluded candidates except van Styn, who got ten times their vote. Joke about stoners goes here.
It’d be nice if the WAEC website had a list of seats (not a drop-down menu) labelled by “count in progress” / “awaiting declaration” / “results declared”. Can’t be that many dozen lines of code.
Other minutiae:
Thornlie has the ALP/Lib 2pp figures back, so I guess the indie didn’t jump the Libs after all? Weird little blip there.
Waikiki Primary in Baldivis still doesn’t have a 2pp result, 16 days after the election. Unlike Wooroloo in Kalamunda, there’s no chance of it changing the result, but… why? Once again, it’s the smallest booth in the seat, and it seems to have fallen down the back of the couch.
Ticktock 9.26pm
Thanks, makes sense
From memory admittedly, Australian Christians seem to get much higher vote shares in WA than I’ve seen in other states before.
Bird of Paradox
This is the listing of electorates and their status.
https://www.elections.wa.gov.au/elections/state/sgelection#/sg2025/LAVoteSummary
There has now been 85.14% of roll for the LA processed, presumably about it for the participation, and 76.47% of the roll for the LC votes processed. If so, and if Mr Antony Green’s assumptions re below the line voting numbers and patterns are ball park correct, then there is about 5.34% of the roll of above the line votes still to count and also 3.33% of the roll of below the line to count/publish.
This indicates that neither ALP nor LIB can get an extra councillor, with Greens and PHON almost assured of one extra each, and one other from (in order of likeliness) Independent, Animal Justice, Shooters, or Sustainable, depending on how preferences spray (Shooters would win if voters strictly followed tickets, but this is probably unlikely?)
Cheers Ozmikey. Didn’t see that little link down the bottom.
Six more seats declared today: Bicton, Churchlands, Dawesville, Roe, Thornlie, Warren-Blackwood.
Thornlie’s the interesting one – Kevin McDonald did manage to jump the Libs into second after all. He got more than half of One Nation’s prefs (a lot of those would be donkey votes), and then scraped ahead on Green prefs (ALP 61.3, Ind 26.7, Lib 11.6). Final margin: ALP 14.6% vs Ind. (Although that hasn’t been updated in whatever figures the PB projection is based on – the booth results got pulled again.)
Roe: Green prefs went ALP 53.0, Nat 26.0, ON 11.3, Lib 9.7 – that’s low for Labor. I guess people like their local Nat?
Warren-Blackwood: One Nation prefs went 65% to the Nats and ensured they came a clear second, 5% ahead of the Libs. Bevan Eatts oughta send Pauline a Christmas card.
The number of booths in the PB projection with 2pp results has gone backwards again – as well as the four seats that have never had one (Central Wheatbelt, Maylands, Kimberley, Pilbara, plus that one booth in Baldivis), they’ve been pulled in Thornlie, Bassendean and Bibra Lake. Thornlie’s been declared as ALP/Ind; the other two (both “awaiting declaration”) would have Renee McLennan and the Greens potentially jumping the Libs.
Bird of P 9.55pm
That’s interesting intel, thanks. I had been wondering about how the prefs went to Nat vs. Lib in Warren-Blackwood as well as Albany.
I’m still flummoxed by that 56% for Labor in Pilbara but I expect all will be revealed one day. . .
I’m not sure I totally agree with the sentiement that Scarborough is traditional Liberal territory – the ALP held the previous iteration of Scarborough on occasion, and held the succcessor seat of Innaloo as well for a term until it was abolished. When Scarborough was reformed a few elections back, it was only nominally Liberal by 1.2% (though the Libs won it by a lot more than that)
I think it’s a slightly more middle class area wedged in between the more expensive (thus Liberal voting) suburbs both north and south. Scarborough, Doubleview and Innaloo are the cheaper alternatives to the surrounding suburbs (you could probably even lump in Karrinyup to some extent). Lots of smaller multi-house blocks etc.
Certainly, if the Liberals are to get into power, the route will always include winning Scarborough (and the ALP’s path rarely needs it), but I don’t think it’s as natural a Liberal seat as many think. Certainly not even close to the level of either Churchlands or Carine – or even South Perth or Bateman. Probably more like Bicton or Riverton to be honest.
Yeah, agreed. Anything south of Scarbs is old money – the golden triangle. North (from Trigg and Watermans Bay upwards), it’s what used to be the outer suburban mortgage belt 50 years ago, where the boomer owners are sitting on a $2m house that cost them $40k back when OH BUT YOU KNOW INTEREST RATES WERE 18% BACK THEN! YOU YOUNG PEOPLE DON’T KNOW HOW EASY YOU HAVE IT!
…….
(That silence is the sound of no longer getting a phone call on your birthday.)
Naturally, the kids are long gone. Carine (fka Marmion) was a Labor seat in the 70s, and Hillarys (fka Whitford) was a Labor seat in the 90s. The “kids moved out” belt is spreading northward up the coast.
As for Scabs itself, it’s best known for a bunch of really shitty nightclubs where you might get roofied and will have a $100 fare home from the cabbie who hangs his jacket over the meter. It also has a beach, but so does 100 km of Perth’s urban sprawl. Scarborough Beach Rd near the Innaloo shops is a curse of a thing with five sets of lights in half a km, and Osborne Park is light industrial (with occasional doofs in empty warehouses). It’ll never be a classy area.
Yeah, the ridiculousness of the “18%” mortgage comparison is huge.
I just put the valuation I remember my folks getting in the 80s on a house (full quarter acre block) in Floreat into the RBA’S inflation calculator.
It came out at just under $540K for 2024. Quarter acre. Floreat.
I think the block alone would sell for $2m today. That’s how the boomers won.
(My folks sold up in 2005)
Matt
That’s a completely unfair comparison without the corresponding cumulative interest payments made on that 18%!
The boomers may still ‘win’ in your book, idk, but it won’t look like your comparison above.
And whilst I am a lot younger than a boomer (I may be younger than you, I don’t know), I think there’s also the (not totally unjustified) perception that people were prepared to go without more and maybe to work harder, in order to get ahead financially, compared to today. Whereas the perception – which again may be harsh but does hold true for a bunch of younger folks – is that the younger generation feel they are entitled to this financial security and home ownership regardless of what life choices they do, or what they choose to spend their measly income on. And perhaps are more restless and ungrateful for what they do have.
Just sayin. . . don’t shoot the messenger.
Overall in this election Libs will feel hard done by not to win a couple or so more seats on that 2pp share / swing, but tinged with relief that Kalamunda and Murray-Wellington prevented it being even worse (most of the seats with these sorts of swings were ones they still lost, and much of the lower-hanging fruit had single-digit swings that kept them in the Labor column).
The Pilbara preference distribution is now up: Labor won by 207 votes.
If you’re referring to the projection on my results page, it had taken to splitting preferences 50-50 rather than using my estimates. I’ve patched it up and will look into what caused it when I get the chance to re-run the whole thing.
Another six seats declared today: Albany, Bunbury, Collie-Preston, Hillarys, Pilbara, Southern River.
Albany: Nats and Libs changed order twice in the count. Christian prefs went Lib 60.9, Lionetti 20.2, Nat 11.4 (etc) – this put the Libs ahead. Then Lionetti’s prefs went Nat 44.8, ALP 29.1, Lib 25.7 and put the Nats back in front. Labor got 11.2% of Lib prefs – not as low as the projection was making it look, but still pretty damn low.
Meanwhile, the Greens went ALP 68.6, Lionetti 16.0, Nat 10.8, Lib 4.3 (ouch).
Collie: Green prefs went ALP 60.5, Nat 16.3, ON 12.1, Lib 11.1. Again with the low Green-ALP flow… that might cost them a marginal country seat one day. Meanwhile, the Nats got over half of ON prefs.
Labor got 71.6% of Green prefs in Hillarys – low for a city seat. Meanwhile they got 78.1% in Carine, just next door, with the exact same parties (ALP, Lib, Grn, AC). These’ll be interesting to put into a spreadsheet when it’s all done.
Four more seats declared today: Darling Range, Jandakot, Kingsley, Murray-Wellington. Nothing particularly notable. Green prefs in Murray-Wellington: ALP 57.3, ON 16.1, Nat 15.2, Lib 11.5, which seems to be a pattern in in rural seats.
The PB projection has ten more booths in on 2pp: Waikiki (Warnbro) is finally in, and so are the nine booths from Maylands… despite the chance of that becoming an ALP/Green top two? Maybe they’re flip-flopping again like they did with Thornlie.
*yawns*
@William
“The Pilbara preference distribution is now up: Labor won by 207 votes.
“I’m still flummoxed by that 56% for Labor in Pilbara but I expect all will be revealed one day. . .”
If you’re referring to the projection on my results page, it had taken to splitting preferences 50-50 rather than using my estimates. I’ve patched it up and will look into what caused it when I get the chance to re-run the whole thing.”
Yes I was referring to the projections on your results page, thanks for the clarification.
Makes MUCH more sense that Labor are on 50.6%, only winning by 207 votes shows how close that was to surprising us all in Liberals’ favour when the prefs count was done.
I assume Libs and Nats won’t be standing candidates against each other in the fed election in WA? – can someone help me?
Nats are certainly running in Bullwinkel – Mia Davies is giving up a safe state seat to try it. Not sure if they’re running elsewhere, but it’d be strange if they didn’t at least run in O’Connor and Durack. O’Connor would be a Nat seat on state results (roughly covers Albany, Warren-Blackwood, Roe and Kalgoorlie – 3 Nat seats to 1 ALP), and Durack would be interesting too (Kimberley, Pilbara, Geraldton, Mid West – 2 each).
Oh, and Central Wheatbelt too – a safe Nat seat which is split between three federal ones these days.
B of P
Thanks.
But wouldn’t it make more sense if Libs were given a clear run in Durack and Nats in Central Wheatbelt?
O’Connor (and Bullwinkel?) makes some sense for both parties to have a go because there must be a fairly high degree of confidence that won’t stop the Coalition winning one way or another, and may be the best person win kind of thing.
No coalition in WA, remember. The Nats run against the Libs for the same reason the Greens run against Labor.
Federally, O’Connor and Durack are seats Labor can’t win. Bullwinkel (new seat, vacant) is notionally a marginal Labor seat that both Libs and Nats would like to win. Balancing the general swing against the federal govt with the shithouse result for the state Libs, it’s hard to pick – it’ll be a seat to watch on the night.
(Central Wheatbelt is a state seat.)
Eight more seats declared: Balcatta, Cannington, Cockburn, Cottesloe, Forrestfield, Kalgoorlie, Mt Lawley, South Perth.
(Oh, make that 11: Butler, Central Wheatbelt and Swan Hills dropped in while I was typing the below. Up to 29 now.)
Kalgoorlie is the interesting one. The Nats ended up 161 votes behind in third place after Kyran O’Donnell was eliminated (his prefs went Nat 44.5, ALP 31.0, Lib 24.2). The 3cp was ALP 45.3, Lib 27.9, Nat 26.8; Nat prefs then went Lib 76.5 / ALP 23.3.
There were less than 15,000 votes counted in Kalgoorlie, compared to a state average of about 27k. Partly due to the LDA, partly a low turnout (about 70%). Kimberley’s even worse, with under 11k votes. Again the LDA, and the turnout was just 59%.
Central Wheatbelt stayed as a Nat/ALP count. One Nation prefs went two-thirds to the Nats, who got over 50% before the Libs were distributed (they went 89-11 to the Nats). Greens went ALP 50.5, Nat 22.8, ON 15.2, Lib 11.4 – even weaker for Labor than Roe.
Meanwhile, Labor got 85% of Green prefs in Mt Lawley – the highest I’ve seen yet.
“No coalition in WA, remember.”
Fair enough but we’re talking about the upcoming federal election not the state election. Surely the agreement is nationwide?
Not here. The Nats won O’Connor in 2010, taking it off an incumbent Lib (Wilson Tuckey, who wasn’t missed by many). That MP sat as a crossbencher. I don’t know if Mia Davies would do the same, but it’d certainly be interesting watching her sit in the same party room as Barnaby Joyce.
Kimberley in the PB results has Nationals on 16.5% for 3CP.
Strange since Greens (WA) are on 17.5% on the primary vote.
One of them has to be wrong.
Armadale the only seat left as “Count in Progress”. No change in upper house count.
Disasterboy: the PB projection assumes a top three (ALP/Lib/Nat in Kimberley) and distributes the other party prefs to them. There’s some seats where William picked the wrong top three, so the projection looks weird. It’s not changing any results (Pilbara and Kalgoorlie were the only chances of that).
According to PB the final 2pp statewide was 57-43% Lab-L/N – any reason to doubt that?
@B of P 2.57am
Ok, thanks.
Thanks Bird of Paradox.
Just that ElectionsWA or WAEC or whatever they are called these days, don’t show the distribution of preferences yet. I expect on Monday a lot of those details may be published.
They’ve published the distribution for about half the seats so far – they seem to be doing them in random order. The main interesting ones left are Bassendean and Bibra Lake, which may end up with ALP/Ind and ALP/Grn 2cp counts.
Eight more seats declared: Bassendean, Kwinana, Landsdale, Mindarie, Oakford, Riverton, Scarborough, Wanneroo.
Renee McLennan made the top two in Bassendean: ALP margin 15.7% vs Ind. She gained on the Libs at every exclusion (yes, even the Christians) and ended up 332 votes ahead of them.
Preference splits:
AC: Ind 30.7, ON 26.5, Lib 20.8, ALP 16.0, Grn 5.5
ON: Ind 49.2, Lib 27.2, ALP 13.1, Grn 10.0
Grn: ALP 52.7, Ind 39.4, Lib 7.7
Lib: Ind 70.5, ALP 29.3
Add Midland, Nedlands and Vasse to the list of declared seats – 40 down, 19 to go. If they keep going at this rate, they should get through that lot in the next couple of days.
Up to 51 seats now. Welcome to the club: Baldivis, Belmont, Fremantle, Girrawheen, Mandurah, Maylands, Mid West, Rockingham, Secret Harbour, Victoria Park, West Swan.
Maylands turned out to be a boring old ALP/Lib seat after all, mainly thanks to Christian prefs going 65% to the Libs – they ended up 225 votes ahead after the minnows were excluded (one of the closest 3cp gaps this election). Green prefs then went a thumping 87.6% to Labor – even better than Mt Lawley.
(Meanwhile, the PB projection still has the Greens second, with Lib prefs splitting 50-50. William?)
Down in Freo: ALP/Ind, as was already known. Greens came fourth, and their prefs went Ind 59.5, ALP 36.1, Lib 4.4 (ouch!). Libs went out next, and they split 53-47 to Hulett (despite the HTV). If that’s repeated when she runs federally and she makes it into second, that’s a moderately good omen for her.
And that’s a wrap for the lower house – all seats declared. Bibra Lake ended up with the state’s only ALP/Green 2cp, with a Labor margin of 14.2%. Greens did well out of Lisa Griffiths’ preferences, partially from the donkey vote. (Griffiths is state president of the Australian Democrats, who apparently still exist.) They then got 37% of Lib prefs, which lets you know how many people ignore or disobey how-to-vote cards.
Greens missed second in Perth by about 500 votes – they would’ve needed close to 100% of AJP prefs to get there. They got more than half, but it wasn’t enough. 88.2% of their prefs then went to Labor, which might just be the best in the state. (Not the worst for the Libs, though – that would be Freo.)
Upper house count now at 83.14% too, and there’s a press release saying they’re expecting the count to be finalised by next week, as well as a second press release welcoming the official inquiry.
Thanks for the updates B of P.
Is 57.1-42.9% the final 2pp statewide? – or do they still have more to count where Libs or Lab didn’t make the final two?