Looming polls that I’m aware of include a YouGov poll that should be out early tomorrow and the latest instalment of the RedBridge Group marginal seat tracking poll to follow the next day. Before proceeding with a post covering miscellaneous bits and pieces from the federal campaign, some further recent posts for your consideration: one on the resolution of the Western Australian election count; one on state polling in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland; and a guest post from Adrian Beaumont on developments in Canada and the United States, including yesterday’s high-profile Wisconsin Supreme Court election.
• Paul Sakkal of The Age reports “senior Labor figures” in Macnamara (one of whom would seem to be former state minister and vocal Israel supporter Philip Dalidakis) are advocating “open ticket” how-to-vote cards offering no recommendation beyond the first preference, rather than favouring the Greens over the Liberals. At issue is the Greens’ stance on Israel in a seat whose 10% Jewish population ranks second in the country behind Wentworth, where Labor’s handling of the Greens is of little consequence. Ballot paper and preference flow data suggests that around 30% of Labor voters follow the how-to-vote card, and three-quarters of those who don’t put the Greens ahead of the Liberals of their own volition. With Labor accounting for roughly 30% of the vote in the seat, an open ticket would provide about 2% of a required Liberal swing of upwards of 10% if they are to defeat the Greens. That would only apply if Labor incumbent Josh Burns ran third in a seat where there was little to separate Labor, Liberal and the Greens on the primary vote in 2022. If Burns did make the final count, it would take a swing of around 12% to dislodge him he faced the Liberals, and around 6% if he faced the Greens.
• Mayo MP Rebekha Sharkie became the first cross-bencher to offer any indication as to which party she would likely support in the event of a hung parliament, saying her constituents would favour the Coalition. She based this on the complexion of the state seats corresponding with Mayo, notwithstanding that Labor won the two-party preferred count in Mayo ahead of the Liberals by 51.6% to 48.4% in 2022. Sharkie qualified this by saying she would “absolutely talk to both sides but it would ultimately depend where the numbers sit and who can form stable government”.
• Perhaps by way of pushing back against last week’s JWS Research poll in the News Corp papers showing Liberal candidate Tim Wilson with a 54-46 lead over teal incumbent Zoe Daniel in Goldstein, Climate 200 has provided The Australian with a uComms poll showing exactly the reverse. The only information provided on the primary vote in the report is that Wilson had more of it than Daniel, as indeed he did when Daniel defeated him in 2022. The poll was conducted March 18 to 25, and follows a similar poll from late February that had Daniel leading 52-48.
• Nine Newspapers has a useful feature highlighting the movements of the two party leaders, and Crikey has something similar tracking electorates that have been targeted with locally specific election promises (pork barrelling, if you will).
Some late-starting candidates of note:
• The Liberal candidate for Chris Bowen’s seat of McMahon will be Carmen Lazar, who until last September was a Labor member of Fairfield City Council. Lazar criticised the party’s failure to support a local push for an MRI machine at Fairfield Hospital at the time she stood aside from council. Paul Karp of the Financial Review further reports she was aggrieved that David Saliba won Labor preselection ahead of her for the state seat of Fairfield.
• Labor’s candidate in Forrest is Tabitha Dowding, policy adviser to state Agriculture Minister Jackie Jarvis and granddaughter of former Labor Premier Peter Dowding.
• Andrew Thaler, who has gained some notoriety as a Snowy Monaro Regional councillor, is running as an independent in Eden-Monaro.
https%3A%2F%2Fsteveblank.com%2F2025%2F04%2F03%2Fthe-u-s-led-the-world-in-science-and-technology-and-just-gave-it-up, “The U.S. Led the World in Science and Technology and Just Gave It Up“
Dow Jones 1600 points down. NASDAQ nearly 1000 pts down. Well done Orange Looney supporters.
bc
The primaries haven’t really bounced that much, but the netsat figures have had a jolt.
YouGov is sort of similar to Newspoll & Essential, in that there is not much bounciness.
Morgan can obviously go up and down like a yo-yo.
Looks like a slight trend from the LNP back to the minor right parties (ie: the Trumpet crowd/ex-UAP).
The poll is suggesting a 2% figure for the Palmer outfit.
Quite interesting actually, because Dutton had pretty much left the “minor right” alone this term.
He made a play for their vote in December 2024 over the “flags” thing.
Yet that minor right vote seems to have been bolstered since that time. ie: Pauline didn’t lose any paint, and now we’ve got the Trumpet (ex UAP) mob taking a slice out of the LNP primary.
Interesting also that the ALP primary ticked down a notch. I think all the polls last weekend had the ALP vote going up.
As WB mentioned, it looks like a Redbridge poll may be on it’s way.
Apart from that, should be quiet weekend, unless we also get a fresh Demos AU poll.
Otherwise, Roy Morgan Monday!
https://steveblank.com/2025/04/03/the-u-s-led-the-world-in-science-and-technology-and-just-gave-it-up/, “ By the end of the war, the U.S. and British innovation systems had produced radically different outcomes.
Britain remained a leader in theoretical science and defense technology, but its failure to commercialize wartime innovations meant it lost ground in key industries like computing and consumer electronics.
The U.S. emerged as the global leader in science and technology, with innovations like radar, computing, and nuclear power driving its post-war economic boom. The university-industry-government partnership became the foundation of Silicon Valley, the aerospace sector, and the biotechnology industry.
This is the model that China has emulated …”
[Sorry, messed up, https://www.pollbludger.net/2025/04/03/week-one-miscellany-macnamara-hung-parliament-scenarios-and-more-open-thread/comment-page-14/#comment-4489701.%5D
steve,
Massive drop on the Dow.
Here’s a list of the biggest falls on the Dow jones.
Look’s like tonight will be the 4th largest on record by volume (as mentioned by someone upthread)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_in_the_Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average
GFY2 says Friday, April 4, 2025 at 1:48 am
That reminds me of the first episode of Scales of Justice with the more senior Constable training the probationary Constable. They were out on patrol near the end of their night shift when they see an obvious drunk driver. Rather than pull him over they turn around because they don’t want all the paper work at the end of their shift.
Where does Mr Dutton go to now to regain some momentum?
Dutton has been campaigning very convincingly against himself. This will surely result in the loss of seats by the Reactionaries.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2025/04/03/week-one-miscellany-macnamara-hung-parliament-scenarios-and-more-open-thread/comment-page-14/#comment-4489720
… and terms like woke etc very much sound like inside the Canberra ACT bubble!
Majority labor, don’t care for albo, but Dutton/trump is too much. Possible seat pick ups in QLD, as well.
New thread.
WW11 footage uncensored.
https://youtu.be/K7JeTqXdH7I?si=tVb35esbPz2hfH2V
Paul the A is a fucking moron. He keeps regurgitating what a journalist parsed from what Bob Brown said, when the actual source material (ie. Bob Brown’s actual words, assuming that they are recorded accurately) – appearing a couple of paragraphs later in the same article – makes it quite clear that Paul the A is wrong. He clearly has basic comprehension problems. Not all stupid people are reactionaries, and not all reactionaries are stupid, but a preponderance of reactionaries are as dumb as a bucket of hammers. It is a melancholy truth that bludger’s collection of RNWJ are the full bucket load (ie. Paul the A, Pooper, Centre-bet, Scrott 2.0 and Foodbar [although sometimes, on rare occasions, he rises above the dross]).
Paul the A then wants to bait me into some sort of pledge to the Greens last on my ballot, as idiots like Danby want Labor to do in Melbourne.
No thanks, the trots may be grubs and gaslighters, but they will still sit one place above the filth on my ballot paper – forever and always.
Just give the bill to Donald Chump.. the first of many BIGGLY ones coming his way