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Welsh and Scottish elections live

Welsh and Scottish parliamentary elections occur today, as well as English local elections. Plus further updates on gerrymandering in the US.

Live Commentary

10:48am Sunday With all 136 councils declared, the results are Reform 1,453 councillors (up 1,451), Labour 1,068 (down 1,496), Lib Dems 844 (up 155), Tories 801 (down 563) and Greens 587 (up 441). So Labour lost 58% of seats it was defending, a bit better than expected. Councils controlled are Labour 28 (down 38), Lib Dems 15 (up one), Reform 14 (up 14), Tories nine (down six), Greens five (up five) and Aspire one (up one – Tower Hamlets), with 64 with no overall control (up 23).

12:09pm These elections were about as bad as expected for Labour in England and Scotland, and worse than expected in Wales. The party that had dominated Wales since the first devolved election in 1999 won just nine out of 96 seats. The pre-election polls were good in Scotland, but overstated Labour and understated PC in Wales.

11:36am After results from 130 of 136 English councils, Reform won 1,443 councillors (up 1,441), Labour 959 (down 1,395), the Lib Dems 834 (up 151), the Tories 773 (down 555) and the Greens 511 (up 370). Councils controlled are Labour 27 (down 35), the Lib Dems 15 (up one), Reform 14 (up 14), the Tories nine (down six) and the Greens four (up four), with 61 with no overall control (up 22). I expect the remaining councils by Sunday morning AEST. While the Greens were runner-up to Reform with 18% according to the BBC’s PNS, their vote appears to have been too evenly dispersed to beat Labour, the Tories or the Lib Dems in number of councillors.

11:25am In English mayoral elections, the Greens have also gained Lewisham from Labour to add to their gain in Hackney. These are the first two directly elected Greens mayors. The other four mayoral elections have all been holds for the Tories, Labour, the Lib Dems and Aspire in Tower Hamlets.

10:59am With counting complete in Scotland, the SNP won 58 of the 129 seats (down six since 2021), Labour 17 (down four), Reform 17 (up 17), the Greens 15 (up six), the Tories 12 (down 19) and the Lib Dems ten (up six). Vote shares in the FPTP seats were 38.2% SNP (down 9.5%), 19.2% Labour (down 2.4%), 15.8% Reform (new), 11.8% Tories (down 10.1%), 11.4% Lib Dems (up 4.4%) and 2.3% Greens (up 1.0%). In the list seats, the SNP won 27.2% and the Greens 14.0%.

7am The BBC’s Projected National Share (PNS) for these council elections gives Reform 26% of the vote (down four since the 2025 council elections), the Greens 18% (up seven), the Tories 17% (up two), Labour 17% (down three) and the Lib Dems 16% (down one). In 2022, the last time most of these seats were elected, Labour won the PNS by 35-30 over the Tories with 19% for the Lib Dems. The PNS is a figure for what would have happened had council elections been held nationally, and can be compared from one year of elections to the next.

6:44am In Scotland, 115 of the 129 seats have been declared, including all 73 FPTP seats. In the FPTP seats, the SNP won 57 seats (down six on 2021), the Lib Dems seven (up three), the Tories four (down one), Labour three (up two) and the Greens two (up two). Reform didn’t win any FPTP seats. The SNP and Greens are already at a combined 69 seats (57 SNP and 12 Greens), above the 65 needed for a majority.

6:31am Saturday Counting in Wales is complete, with the BBC showing seat changes from 2021 using a redistribution (as there were 60 total seats in 2021 vs 96 now). The nationalist Plaid Cymru won 43 seats (up 20), Reform 34 (up 34), Labour nine (down 35), the Tories seven (down 22), the Greens two (up two) and the Lib Dems one (up one). PC is six seats short of a majority, with Labour their most plausible partner. Vote shares were 35.4% PC (up 14.7%), 29.3% Reform (up 28.2%), 11.1% Labour (down 25.1%), 10.7% Tories (down 14.3%), 6.7% Greens (up 2.4%) and 4.5% Lib Dems (up 0.1%).

11:15pm And that’s all from me until tomorrow morning.

11:14pm In Scotland, after seven of the 73 FPTP seats have declared, the SNP has won six and the Lib Dems one, a gain for the SNP at the Lib Dems’ expense. There are still no Welsh results, but the Labour Welsh First Minister is expected to lose her seat and Labour is expected to only win ten seats out of 96 (they won 30 out of 60 in 2021).

11:06pm In English councils after 63 of 136 results, Reform has won 561 councillors (up 559), the Lib Dems 336 (up 28), the Tories 305 (down 249), Labour 292 (down 380) and the Greens 106 (up 58). Councils controlled are Labour 13 (down 11), the Lib Dems eight (up one), the Tories six (down two) and Reform three (up three), with 33 NOC (up nine). Labour’s proportional seat losses have increased on counting tonight.

9:58pm The SNP have held Dundee City West by 49-25 over Labour with 13% for Reform. That’s a 12.5% drop in the SNP vote.

9:49pm The first Scottish result is in, with the Lib Dems retaining Orkney Islands by 70-16 over the SNP, an 8% swing to the Lib Dems and 13% against the SNP since 2021.

9:07pm There are no counts available yet, but the Greens have gained Hackney mayoralty from Labour. That’s a former Labour stronghold in London. Update: the Greens defeated Labour by 47.2-35.5 with 8.4% for the Tories and 5.3% for Reform.

8:34pm Counting in Wales and Scotland started at 6pm AEST, with first Scottish results expected at about 9pm.

8:25pm After 46 of 136 English councils, Reform have won 401 councillors (up 399), the Tories 256 (down 174), Labour 253 (down 260), the Lib Dems 251 (up 37) and the Greens 53 (up 28). Councils controlled are Labour ten (down eight), the Tories six (down one), the Lib Dems five (up one) and Reform two (up two), with 23 for NOC (up six).

4:50pm There’s going to be a lull in counting until tonight, when we’ll get Welsh and Scottish results and 96 further council results.

4:06pm The Tories have regained Westminster in London from Labour after losing it in 2022. In inner London councils, it’s just Tories vs Labour. The Tories won 32 of the 54 seats, a nine-seat gain.

3:51pm Reform takes its first council, gaining Newcastle-under-Lyme from the Tories. All 44 seats were up, with Reform winning 27 (up 27), the Tories 15 (down ten) and Labour two (down 17).

3:44pm (three paragraph entry) After 38 of 136 councils, Reform has 317 councillors (up 317), Labour 219 (down 240), the Lib Dems 236 (up 35), the Tories 190 (down 117) and the Greens 48 (up 26). Councils controlled are Labour ten (down seven), Lib Dems five (up one) and Tories three (steady), with No Overall Control (NOC) 20 (up six).

While Labour has lost over half the seats they held, they’re doing better so far than some projections that had them losing 70% of their current seats. Curtice said the Greens are getting about 18%, but this isn’t quite enough in FPTP to win large numbers of seats.

In 2022, Labour gained Wandsworth from the Tories, ending 44 years of Tory dominance in this London council. This election (an all-out election), the Tories regained seven seats, but didn’t quite win a majority, finishing with 29 of 58 seats, to 28 Labour and one independent.

2:21pm Curtice says Reform is averaging 40% where at least 60% voted for Brexit, but only 9% where fewer than 40% voted to Leave. In contrast, the Greens are at 26% in pro-Remain areas but 12% in pro-Leave areas.

1:35pm BBC election analyst John Curtice says in key wards, Reform have 30% of the vote, Labour 16%, the Greens 15% (up ten since 2022). The Tories are down 14% since 2022 and the Lib Dems down 5%.

1:31pm Wigan is a good example of the one-third up for election rule helping the former major parties retain control. Of the 25 seats up for election, Reform won 24 with Labour losing all 22 seats they were defending. But Labour retains control with 42 of the total 75 seats.

1:19pm After 26 of 136 councils, Reform has won 224 councillors (up 224), Labour 84 (down 162), the Lib Dems 68 (down three), the Tories 67 (down 65) and the Greens 34 (up 22). Councils controlled are Labour seven (down five), Lib Dems three (up one), Tories two (steady) and no overall control 14 (up four).

11:59am The Lib Dems have gained control of Stockport in Greater Manchester (previously no overall control). The damage to Labour and the Tories in councils controlled has been limited so far by only having one-third of councillors up at this election. London councils to come in later will have all-out elections.

11:19am After 11 of 136 councils declared, Reform has 93 councillors (up 93), the Tories 13 (down 20), Labour 12 (down 67), the Lib Dems 12 (down three) and the Greens six (up four). Councils controlled are Labour four (down three), the Tories one (steady) and no overall control six (up three). In councils in so far, only one-third of seats have been up for election, so Labour’s controls are from the two-thirds that are not up.

10:46am Reform has won 46 councillors (up 46), Labour six (down 37), the Lib Dems five (down two), the Greens four (up three) and the Tories two (down five).

10:04am Councillors won so far are Reform 12 (up 12 since 2022), Labour two (down 12), Lib Dems two (up one), Greens one (up one) and Tories zero (down two).

9:52am The two councils that have been called Labour holds are because only one-third of seats were up for election, and Labour held nearly all the seats not up for election.

9:45am Slow going so far, with only four ward results in. The BBC says we should get results from ten councils soon.

9:10am Friday The BBC’s live blog says counting in Wales and Scotland won’t begin until Friday UK time (tonight AEST).

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Welsh and Scottish elections minus ten days

Welsh and Scottish parliamentary elections occur on May 7, as well as English local elections. In the US, a referendum passes in Virginia that will allow a Democratic gerrymander.

Welsh and Scottish parliamentary elections and English local government elections will occur on Thursday May 7. Labour has been the dominant party at Welsh elections since the first devolved election in 1999, winning half or just under half the seats. At this election, there will be 96 members elected in 16 six-member electorates by proportional representation. This reform scraps the first-past-the-post seats.

The Election Maps UK aggregate gives the left-wing Welsh nationalist Plaid Cymru 29.1%, followed by the populist right Reform at 26.4%, Labour 14.9%, the Conservatives 10.3%, the Greens 10.3% and the Liberal Democrats 6.0%. Seat projections give Plaid 38 seats, Reform 30, Labour 13, the Conservatives eight, the Greens five and the Lib Dems two. If this occurs, Plaid and Labour combined would be able to govern.

Of the 129 Scottish seats, 73 are elected by FPTP and 56 are list seats, with the list seats used to maintain overall proportionality, so that parties that dominate FPTP seats win few list seats. The Scottish National Party (SNP) has dominated since 2011.

In the Election Maps UK aggregate, the SNP has 35.2% of the vote in the FPTP seats, followed by 18.0% for Labour, 17.6% Reform, 10.8% Conservatives, 10.1% Lib Dems and 6.0% Greens. In list seats, the Greens have 13.0% and the SNP 29.4%. Seat projections give the SNP 61, Labour 18, Reform 17, the Greens 13, the Conservatives 11 and the Lib Dems nine. If this occurs, the SNP will hold government with the Greens’ support.

A total of 5,066 coucillors will be up for election in England on May 7. The large majority of councillors were last elected at the 2022 local elections. At those elections, Labour won the Projected National Share (PNS) by 35-30 over the Conservatives with 19% for the Lib Dems. The PNS calculates a national vote share for council elections. At the 2025 local elections, the PNS was 30% Reform, 20% Labour, 17% Lib Dems, 15% Conservatives and 11% Greens.

Current national vote shares are 26.3% Reform, 19.1% Labour, 18.5% Conservatives, 15.8% Greens and 12.2% Lib Dems. If these vote shares occur at the local elections, Reform and the Greens will gain massively at the expense of Labour and the Conservatives. Since January, there has been a trend to the Greens and against Reform. Seat projections now have Reform well below a majority in the House of Commons, but adding the Conservatives to Reform gives the right a majority.

US updates

Last Tuesday, a referendum on a Democratic gerrymander in Virginia succeeded by a 51.5-48.5 margin. Subject to legal challenges, Democrats will implement a 10-1 gerrymander of Virginia’s 11 federal House seats, a four-seat gain for Democrats. However, the 3.0-point margin for “yes” was lower than Kamala Harris’ 5.8-point margin over Donald Trump in 2024 in Virginia.

In near-final results from the April 16 New Jersey 11 special election, Democrat Mejia defeated Republican Hathaway by 59.9-39.6, an 11.6-point swing to Democrats from the Harris Trump margin in NJ 11. Since my post on this special, one Democrat has resigned over financial irregularities, and another has died. Republicans hold a 218-212 lead in the House of Representatives with five vacancies.

In Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Trump’s net approval is a record low -18.5, 1.8 points worse than on April 16. In Silver’s aggregate of the generic ballot, Democrats lead Republicans by an unchanged 5.7 points. Midterm elections occur this November.

Hungarian election final results

Of the 199 Hungarian seats, 106 are elected by FPTP and the remaining 93 by national proportional representation with a 5% threshold. At the April 12 election, the conservative and pro-European Tisza won 141 seats (new), while Viktor Orbán’s governing far-right Fidesz won 52 seats (down 83).

The 141 seats for Tisza is above the 133 needed for a two-thirds supermajority that is required to change the constitution. Tisza won the 106 FPTP seats by 96-10 from vote shares of 55.3-36.7. In the national list, Tisza won 53.2% and Fidesz 38.6% (down 15.5%). At the 2022 election, the United for Hungary (EM) alliance of mainly left-wing parties had won 57 seats. At that election, Fidesz won the FPTP seats by 87-19 on vote shares of 52.5-36.9.

US New Jersey 11 federal special election live

After winning the February Democratic primary with just 29.3%, left-winger Analilia Mejia appears set to win today’s special election.

Live Commentary

2:17pm While the Reps retained Georgia 14 at the April 7 special, Dems had a 25-point gain from the 2024 presidential margin. In this special, there’s only an 11-point gain.

12:52pm With 94% in, Mejia’s vote falls below 60% as she now leads by 59.6-40.0. The remaining votes probably won’t be fully counted for another week. Those votes are likely to skew Dem, so Mejia’s vote will probably be over 60% when everything is counted. At the moment, it’s an 11-point margin shift to Dems compared with the 2024 presidential election result in this district.

12:20pm With 87% in, Mejia’s lead has been reduced to 61.3-38.3. This 23-point margin compares with a 9-point margin in this district for Kamala Harris in 2024.

12:02pm Essex, the most Dem-friendly county, counted nearly all its votes quickly, giving a misleading impression of a huge Dem win. As Morris and Passaic catch up with their election day votes, the Dem lead is being eroded, now at 62.5-37.0 with 79% in.

11:40am Passaic gives Mejia a 19-point lead with 47% in from that county. With 68% counted overall, Mejia leads by 65.8-33.7. Election day vote counting in Morris is reducing her lead.

11:07am Essex, the most Dem-friendly county, just counted its election day votes, reducing Mejia’s overall lead to 68.4-31.1 with 55% in. There are still no results from Passaic county.

10:57am With 44% in for NJ 11, Dem Mejia has won, defeating Rep Hathaway by 69.6-29.9. One of the three counties included in this seat hasn’t reported any results, and that county is probably more right-wing than the other two. Votes counted so far are probably early votes, and election day votes will be better for Hathaway.

Polls close at 10am AEST today for a federal special election in Democrat Mikie Sherill former New Jersey 11 seat after she resigned following her election as NJ governor in November 2025. I will be out until nearly 11am.

The Democratic nominee is left-winger Analilia Mejia, after she won the February 5 Democratic primary with just 29.3%. Pro-Israel attacks on establishment favourite Tom Malinowski were thought responsible for his loss, finishing second with 27.6%. The Republican nominee is Joe Hathaway. An early March poll gave Mejia a 53-36 lead over Hathaway.

At US general elections, the use of first past the post doesn’t usually affect the outcome as Democrats and Republicans combined win well over 95% of votes. But Malinowski would have likely won the primary had preferential voting been used.

At the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris defeated Donald Trump in NJ 11 by 53.3-44.6, an 8.7-point margin. At the 36 state and federal special elections held so far in 2026, Democrats have performed on average 11.1 points better than the Trump vs Harris margin in those same seats.

Republicans hold a 218-213 House of Representatives majority with three other vacancies. The Republican member for California’s first died in early January, with the jungle primary to be held on June 2 and a runoff if needed on August 4. On Tuesday, Democrat Eric Swalwell (California 14) and Republican Tony Gonzalez (Texas 23) resigned their House seats owing to sexual abuse scandals. A jungle primary will be held in California 14 on June 16 and a runoff if needed on August 18.

Swalwell has also suspended his campaign for California governor. California holds a jungle primary on June 2, with the top two, regardless of party, advancing to the November general election. Before Swalwell’s suspension, polls suggested there was some chance of two Republicans making the runoff in this heavily Democratic state owing to vote splitting between the three leading Democrats (Swalwell, Tom Steyer and Katie Porter). With Swalwell out, that’s no longer a realistic possibility.

In Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Trump’s net approval is -16.7, 0.2 points better than it was in my April 8 article. In Silver’s aggregate of the generic ballot, Democrats lead Republicans by 5.7 points, a 0.2-point improvement for Democrats. Midterm elections occur this November.

Next Tuesday (Wednesday AEST), a referendum on a Democratic gerrymander will be held in Virginia. A “yes” vote at this referendum would give Democrats a 10-1 split from Virginia’s 11 federal House seats, a four-seat gain for Democrats. Three of the last four polls dating from late March have had “yes” leading by 5-9 points, with a smaller-sample poll giving “no” a one-point lead.

US Georgia 14 federal special election runoff live

A Democrat and a Republican will contest today’s runoff in a seat Trump won by 37 points. Also covered: recent European elections and the upcoming Hungarian election and Canadian by-elections.

Live Commentary

1:53pm Thursday I’ve done an article for The Conversation on the drop in Trump’s US ratings and the November midterm elections.

3:56pm With nearly all votes counted in Wisconsin, Taylor wins by 60.1-39.8, a 21-point swing to Dems from the 2024 pres election. The NYT says Taylor particularly outperformed his benchmarks in suburbs, small towns and rural places, exceeding his benchmarks there by 21-23 points compared with 12 points in big cities.

12:51pm In Wisconsin, with 78% in, the left-wing Taylor leads by 60.2-39.7. The NYT expects Taylor to win by 18 points. This is a gain for the left, so left-wing judges will increase their state Supreme Court majority to 5-2 from 4-3 previously.

12:43pm In Georgia 14, with almost all votes now in, Rep Fuller defeats Dem Harris by 55.9-44.1. While that’s a comfortable hold for the Reps, it’s a 25-point reduction in the Rep margin (from Trump’s 37-point win in 2024 to 12 today). Reps will have a 219-214 lead in the House with two vacancies.

11:51am A very easy win for the left-wing judge Taylor in Wisconsin, who now leads Lazar by 61-39 with 52% in. The NYT estimate is for Taylor’s current 22-point lead to narrow to 17 points when all votes are counted.

11:33am In Wisconsin, with 27% in, the left-wing judge Taylor is leading the right-winger Lazar by 57.4-42.5. The New York Times estimates Taylor will win by 16 points when everything is counted. Trump won Wisconsin by 0.9 points in 2024.

11:22am With two counties (Paulding and Cobb in the southeast) yet to finalise their results, Fuller leads by 57.5-42.5 with 86% in.

11:04am With 76% in, Fuller leads by 55.6-44.4. In the five counties with complete results, there’s a swing to the Dems between 22 and 30 points from the 2024 pres election. Polls in Wisconsin have now closed.

10:42am Fuller doing it easily now, winning by 55.6-44.4 with 67% in. Polk is the second county to fully count its votes, with Fuller winning by 39 points, a 22-point swing to Dems from the 2024 pres election.

10:02am With some results from all counties in Georgia 14 in, Rep Fuller leads by 53-47 with 42% in. I expect him to expand his lead on election day votes.

9:48am The election day votes have been counted in Chattooga county, boosting Fuller’s overall lead to 51.5-48.5. There’s a 25-point shift towards Dems in that county from the 2024 pres election result, but that’s not enough for Harris to pull off an upset.

9:40am With 28% overall reporting still without results from two counties, Fuller has a tiny 50.03-49.97 lead. That’s likely to widen considerably by the final results.

9:34am Harris takes a 52-48 lead on counting in Cobb county (Atlanta suburbs). But with more rural counties still to report and the right skew of election day votes, Fuller is the clear favourite.

9:22am With 10% in, Fuller leads by 55-45. The counties that have reported so far are mostly rural, but election day votes will probably help Fuller.

9:16am With results from two rural counties in, Fuller takes the lead by 62-38 with 3% in.

9:10am In very early results from Georgia 14, Dem Harris has taken a 62-38 lead over Rep Fuller. These results will be from early voting, which skews left in the US.

8:36am There will also be a Wisconsin state Supreme Court election today, with polls closing at 11am AEST. Left-aligned judges hold a 4-3 majority, and a right-wing judge’s seat is up for election, so the left will retain its majority, but a left win would increase its majority to 5-2. Chris Taylor is the left’s candidate, while Maria Lazar represents the right. A mid-March Marquette poll gave Taylor a 30-22 lead with 47% undecided.

Polls close at 9am AEST today for a federal special election runoff in Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene’s former Georgia 14 seat after she resigned on January 5. At the March 10 jungle primary for this seat, Democrat Shawn Harris (with 37.3%) and Republican Clayton Fuller (with 34.9%) advanced to the runoff. Including other Republican and Democratic candidates, Republicans overall won by 59.7-39.8.

At the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump defeated Kamala Harris in Georgia 14 by 68.2-31.3, a 36.9-point margin. At the 33 state special elections held so far in 2026, Democrats have performed on average 10.6 points better than the Trump vs Harris margin in those same seats.

Republicans hold a 218-214 House of Representatives majority with two other vacancies. A special election in New Jersey’s 11th will occur on April 16 after Democrat Mikie Sherill was elected NJ governor in November 2025. The Republican member for California’s first died in early January, with the jungle primary to be held on June 2 and a runoff if needed on August 4.

In Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Trump’s net approval is -16.9, down 4.4 points since March 4 to a record low owing to the Iran war. In Silver’s aggregate of the generic ballot, Democrats lead Republicans by 5.4 points, with this margin little changed since January. Midterm elections occur this November.

Danish, Slovenian, German and Italian electoral events

Of the 179 Danish seats, 175 are elected in Denmark and two each in Greenland and Faroe Islands by proportional representation with a 2% threshold. At the March 24 election, the centre-left Social Democrats won 38 seats (down 12 since the 2022 election), and their vote share of 21.9% was their lowest since 1903. The two other more conservative former governing parties also lost seats, with the Green Left winning the second most seats with 20 (up five).

Overall, left-wing parties (Red Bloc) won 86 seats and right-wing parties (Blue Bloc) 78 seats, with the Moderates with 14 seats holding the balance of power. Other than a short period near the end of 2025, the Red Bloc had been ahead in the polls since the last election.

Of the 90 Slovenian seats, 88 are elected by PR in eight 11-member electorates with a national 4% threshold. The last two seats go to minorities. At the March 22 election, the governing socially liberal GS won 29 seats (down 12 since 2022), the right-wing SDS 28 (up one), the conservative NSI nine (up one), the centre-left SD six (down one), the centre-right Democrats six (new), the Left five (steady) and the COVID-skeptical Resni.ca five (up five). With 46 seats needed for a majority, the SDS is likely to be the next government.

German elections effectively use PR with a 5% threshold. At the March 22 Rhineland-Palatinate state election, the conservative CDU won 39 of the 105 seat (up eight since 2021), the centre-left SPD 32 (down seven), the populist right AfD 24 (up 15) and the Greens ten (steady). The independent FW and pro-business FDP lost their 12 combined seats by falling below the threshold. A CDU/SPD coalition is the only way to get a majority without the AfD.

On March 22-23, a referendum occurred in Italy on judicial reforms. This referendum was backed by Giorgia Meloni’s right-wing government. The referendum was defeated by a 53.2-46.8 margin.

Upcoming Hungarian election and Canadian by-elections

I previously covered next Sunday’s Hungarian election. Polls continue to be contradictory, with those aligned with the populist right governing Fidesz giving Fidesz 5-8 point leads over the conservative and pro-European Tisza, while other polls give Tisza 9-23 point leads.

The centre-left Liberals won 169 of the 343 House of Commons seats at the 2025 Canadian federal election, three short of a majority. Since then, three Conservatives have defected to the Liberals, but two Liberals in safe seats have resigned and the Terrebonne result was voided by the courts after the Liberals originally defeated the Quebec Bloc by just one vote. By-elections for the two safe Liberal seats and Terrebonne occur next Monday. If the Liberals win all three, they will have a Commons majority.

US Georgia 14 federal special election jungle primary live

After Marjorie Taylor Greene’s resignation, her safe Republican seat will be contested today. Also covered: upcoming elections in Denmark and Hungary, and the Nepalese election result.

Live Commentary

1:08pm With 99% reporting, Dem Harris wins 37.3% and Rep Fuller 34.9%, with another Rep the next highest at 11.6%. Two other Dems combined for 2.4%, for a Dem total of 39.7%. That’s a more than eight-point swing to the Dems from the 2024 Trump and Harris vote shares, but Fuller should easily win the April 7 runoff.

11:51am While Dem Harris won 43% of the early in-person vote, he’s so far only winning 27% of the election day vote. With 75% overall reporting, Harris’ share of the overall vote has fallen to 38.0%, with two other Dems combining for 2.4%.

11:32am With 61% reporting, Dem Harris and Rep Fuller have been called as advancing to an April 7 runoff, with current vote shares of 39.9% Harris and 34.2% Fuller. There’s more votes outstanding in Dem favouring counties.

11:03am With all counties in Georgia 14 reporting some results and 49% counted overall, Dem Harris has 42.3% and Rep Fuller 33.1%. Election day votes will likely favour Reps, so the Dems won’t do as well as the current massive swing towards them suggests. This seat voted for Trump by 68.2-31.3 in 2024.

10:44am With 33% in, Dem Harris has taken the lead with 44.3%, followed by Rep Fuller at 33.6%. The other two Dems combined are only at 2.3%. Early votes will likely favour Dems relative to the final results.

10:24am With 3% reporting, Rep Fuller has 43.4% and Dem Harris 34.5%, with the next highest two Reps at 8.3% and 6.9% respectively. Fuller and Harris are likely to go to a runoff unless Fuller wins outright with over 50% today

Polls close at 10am AEDT today for a jungle primary federal special election in Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene’s former Georgia 14 seat after she resigned on January 5. At a jungle primary, many Republicans and Democrats compete, and the top two, regardless of party, go to a runoff, unless one candidate wins over 50%. If needed, the runoff will be on April 7.

There are 16 Republican and three Democratic candidates. As well as who makes the top two, I will follow how well Republicans and Democrats do overall. At the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump defeated Kamala Harris in Georgia 14 by 68.2-31.3, a 36.9-point margin. At the 25 state special elections held so far in 2026, Democrats have performed on average 10.9 points better than the Trump vs Harris margin in those same seats.

In Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Trump’s net approval is -13.6, virtually unchanged from when the Iran war started. While the war had caused skyrocketing oil prices, they fell back Monday on speculation Trump would chicken out. In Silver’s aggregate of the generic ballot, Democrats lead Republicans by 5.3 points, with this margin little changed in the last six weeks. Midterm elections occur this November.

In gerrymandering news, the Virginia Supreme Court overturned a lower court decision, thus clearing the way for an April 21 referendum. A “yes” vote at the referendum will implement a 10-1 Democratic gerrymander of Virginia’s 11 federal House seats, a four-seat gain for Democrats. There have been two referendum polls so far, with “yes” leading by eight points in one, while “no” leads by eight in the other.

Upcoming Danish and Hungarian elections

Of the 179 Danish MPs, 175 are elected in Denmark and two each in Greenland and Faroe Islands by proportional representation with a 2% threshold. The March 24 election was called eight months early. Polls have the current government of centre-left A and two more conservative parties facing defeat, but the overall vote for left-wing parties (Red bloc) is usually ahead of that for right-wing parties (Blue bloc).

Of the 199 Hungarian MPs, 106 will be elected by first past the post and the remaining 93 by national proportional representation with a 5% threshold. Since the 2022 election, the conservative and pro-European Tisza has become the main challenger to Viktor Orbán’s governing far-right Fidesz. Owing to pro-Fidesz gerrymandering, Tisza is expected to need a 3-5 point lead in the popular vote to win a majority of seats.

Polls for the April 12 election are contradictory. Pollsters allied with Fidesz give Fidesz leads, but independent or opposition-allied pollsters give Tisza large leads. At the 2022 election, polls were not contradictory, but they all understated Fidesz’s margin over the then opposition United for Hungary alliance by at least six points.

Nepalese and German state elections

An election occurred in Nepal last Thursday after the previous government collapsed in September 2025 following student-led protests about its authoritarian tendencies and nepotism. Of the 275 seats, 165 were elected by FPTP and 110 by national PR with a 3% threshold. The reformist Rastriya Swatantra Party won 125 of the 165 FPTP seats. With proportional seats now allocated, they won 47.9% of the national vote and 182 of the 275 total seats.

German elections effectively use PR with a 5% threshold. At Sunday’s state election in Baden-Württemberg, the Greens won 56 of the 157 seats (down two since 2021), the conservative CDU 56 (up 14), the far-right AfD 35 (up 18) and the centre-left SPD ten (down nine). The Left party and the pro-business FDP missed the 5% threshold, with each winning 4.4%, as the FDP lost its 18 seats. The only coalition capable of reaching the 79 seats needed for a majority that doesn’t include the AfD is a Greens/CDU coalition.

UK by-election, US special elections and Japanese election

A UK by-election looms in a safe Labour seat, three federal US special elections to be held by August, and the conservative LDP wins by a landslide in Japan.

The parliamentary by-election for the UK Labour-held seat of Gorton and Denton will occur on February 26. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 50.8%, followed by the far-right Reform with 14.1%, the Greens with 13.2%, the Workers Party with 10.3% and the Conservatives with 7.9%.

Andy Burnham, Labour mayor of Greater Manchester, was blocked from standing by Labour’s National Executive Committee. The public reason was concerns about a by-election for Greater Manchester mayor, but Burnham was seen as a potential challenger to Keir Stamer’s Labour leadership. He needed a seat in the House of Commons to be Labour leader.

The Election Maps UK national poll aggregate gives Reform 29.8%, Labour 20.3%, the Conservatives 18.8%, the Greens 13.4% and the Liberal Democrats 12.4%. After dipping to third in December, Labour has edged back ahead of the Conservatives. On these vote shares, Reform would win a clear majority with 345 of the 650 Commons seats.

Upcoming US federal special elections

On January 31, Democrat Christian Menefee defeated a fellow Democrat to win the runoff for the Texas 18th federal House seat. The runoff occurred as no candidate won over 50% in the November 4 “jungle primary”. This seat was vacant for almost 11 months. Republicans now lead Democrats by 218-214 in the House of Representatives.

There are three upcoming federal specials. Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene resigned her Georgia House seat on January 5, and a jungle primary special will occur March 10. It’s unlikely anyone will get over 50%, so a runoff will need to be scheduled. Democrat Mikie Sherrill was elected New Jersey governor in November, and a special for her House seat will occur April 16. A California Republican died on January 6, with the special to occur August 4.

In gerrymandering news, the Supreme Court in December reversed a lower court ruling that had annulled the Texas Republican gerrymander. This means Republicans can gain an additional five seats from Texas by gerrymandering. However, the Court on February 4 upheld California’s retaliatory Democratic gerrymander that will give Democrats five additional seats.

Virginia Democrats have proposed a 10-1 Democratic gerrymander of Virginia’s 11 House seats, gaining four seats. This will need a referendum to approve, with a poll having “yes” to gerrymandering leading by 51-43. A court has blocked this gerrymander, but Democrats are appealing.

Midterm elections of all the House and one-third of the Senate will occur this November. In Nate Silver’s generic ballot aggregate, Democrats lead Republicans by 47.9-42.3, a 5.6-point margin. Democrats’ position has improved since last November. Donald Trump’s net approval in Silver’s aggregate is -14.4, near his worst this term of -15.0.

Conservative LDP landslide at Japanese election

The Japanese lower house election occurred Sunday, just 15 months after the last election in late 2024. In 2024, the conservative Liberal Democratic Party and its Komeito allies lost their combined majority. After Sanae Takaichi was elected LDP leader and PM in October, Komeito split from the LDP, forcing the LDP to ally with another right-wing party (Ishin). At this election, Komeito allied with the centre-left Constitutional Democratic Party to form the Centrist Reform Alliance (CRA).

Of the 465 seats, 289 were elected by first past the post and 176 by 11 multi-member electorates using proportional representation. The LDP won 316 seats (up 125 since 2024), with the CRA winning just 49 (down 123) and Ishin 36 (up two). The LDP’s 316 seats is the most ever for a party in Japan. In the FPTP seats, the LDP defeated the CRA by 249-7 on vote shares of 49.2-21.6. The LDP has governed almost continuously since its formation in 1955.

Portugal and Chile

At Sunday’s Portuguese presidential runoff election, the centre-left Socialist candidate defeated the far-right Chega candidate by 66.8-33.2. While this was a good result for the left, the presidency is largely symbolic. At May 2025 legislative elections, the Socialists finished third behind the conservative PSD and Chega.

I previously covered the November Chile legislative elections and first round of the presidential election. At the December 14 presidential runoff, right-winger José Antonio Kast defeated Communist Jeannette Jara by 58.2-41.8. Kast replaces left-winger Gabriel Boric as president.

US Tennessee 7 federal special election live

Can Democrats gain a seat Trump won by 22 points in 2024? Also, the Canadian Liberals barely win a parliamentary budget vote.

Live Commentary

3:17pm I’ve done an article for The Conversation about Trump’s ratings and Australian polling.

2:16pm The near-final result is Rep by 53.9-45.1, an 8.8-point margin. That’s still a large swing to the Dems from Trump’s 22.3-point margin in this district in 2024.

1:47pm The Republican has been called the winner, taking Reps to a 220-213 House lead over Dems with two Dem vacancies.

1:37pm The last bit of Davidson reduces the Rep’s lead to 5.4 points with 93% in. The NYT projection is at Rep by 6.9 points.

1:24pm With 81% in, the Rep now leads by 8.0 points. The final NYT estimate is at Rep by 7.7. That’s still a 14.5-point swing to Dems from the 2024 pres results, but a clear Rep win.

12:55pm We now have two nearly complete counties: both rural. The Dems have a swing from the 2024 pres result of 9.3 points in one and 17 points in the other. With 58% in, the Rep has just retaken the lead by 0.3% and the NYT now has him winning by 5.6 points.

12:50pm As the election day vote comes in, counties appear to be becoming more Rep-leaning. The E-day vote has been better for Reps since Trump’s original election in 2016.

12:37pm The Dem takes a 7.2-point lead with results from Davidson. But the NYT still has the Rep winning by 2.9 points when everything counted.

12:24pm Still no results from three counties, including from Davidson which is expected to be heavily Dem. With 26% in, the Rep leads by 16, with the NYT estimate at Rep by 2.9.

12:15pm With 20% in, the Rep lead falls to 12.6 points and the New York Times estimate is for a final margin of 3.1 points to the Rep.

12:10pm Rural counties in TN 7 have reported so far, and the Rep leads by 71-26 with 3% in.

Polls close at 12 noon AEDT today for a federal special election in Tennessee’s Republican-held seventh district. The former member resigned in late July, so there’s a 4.5-month gap from vacancy to election. At the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump won this district by 22.3 points over Kamala Harris.

At 59 state and federal special elections held in 2025, Democrats have improved on the 2024 presidential margins by an average of 13.1 points. An Emerson poll of Tennessee 7 that was taken November 22-24 gave the Republican just a 49-47 lead over the Democrat with 4% for others.

Republicans hold the House of Representatives by 219-213 with two Democratic vacancies: the Texas 18th and New Jersey 11th. A “jungle primary” was held in Texas 18 on November 4, but nobody won over 50%, so a runoff between the two top candidates, both Democrats, will occur on January 31, nearly 11 months after the former member died. NJ 11 will hold a special election on April 16 after NJ governor-elect Mikie Sherrill resigned her House seat. Georgia Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene has announced she will resign on January 5.

Trump’s net approval in Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls has improved two points to -13.1 from a low of -15.0 on November 23. Currently 54.5% disapprove and 41.4% approve. In Fiftyplusone’s aggregate of the generic ballot, Democrats lead Republicans by 4.3 points, a slight improvement for Democrats compared to late October.

In gerrymandering news, the Texas gerrymander that created five additional Republican seats was struck down by a federal court. Republicans have appealed this decision to the Supreme Court, which has put the lower court’s decision on hold while it deliberates. Regardless of the outcome of Texas court cases, California’s Democratic gerrymander remains in place; this was approved at a referendum by 64.4-35.6 (28.8 points).

In final results from other November 4 elections, Democrats won the Virginia governorship by 15.4 points, the attorney-general by 6.6 and lieutenant-governor by 11.6. They won the lower house by 64-36. In NJ, Democrats won the governorship by 14.4 points and the lower house by 57-23. In 2024, Harris won NJ by 5.9 points, Virginia by 5.8 and California by 20.1.

Canadian Liberals barely win budget vote

The centre-left Canadian Liberals hold 170 of the 343 House of Commons seats (up one since the April election owing to a defection from the Conservatives), the Conservatives 143, the separatist Quebec Bloc 22, the left-wing NDP seven and the Greens one. The Liberals are just short of the 172 needed for a majority.

On November 17, the Liberals won a budget vote by 170 to 168 with only the sole Green supporting among non-Liberal parties. The budget was saved by the absence of two NDP and two Conservative MPs. The Liberal Speaker can only vote to break ties. Had the budget vote been lost, a new election would have been required.

Also in Canada, there was a provincial election in Newfoundland and Labrador on October 14. The Conservatives gained government with 21 of the 40 seats (up eight since the 2021 election). The Liberals won 15 seats (down seven) and the NDP two (steady). Vote shares were 44.4% Conservatives (up 5.6%), 43.4% Liberals (down 4.8%) and 8.3% NDP (up 0.3%). All Canadian elections use first past the post.

Right-winger likely to win Chile presidential election

Presidential and legislative elections occurred in Chile on November 16. Left-wing incumbent Gabriel Boric was unable to run owing to term limits. Communist Jeannette Jara, who served in Boric’s administration, won 26.9%, with right-winger José Antonio Kast following with 23.9%. Jara and Kast will proceed to a December 14 runoff. The other candidates were mostly right-wing and polls give Kast a large lead, so Kast should win.

All of the 155 lower house seats were elected by proportional representation in multi-member electorates. Right-wing parties won a combined 76 seats (up five since 2021), two short of a majority. Left-wing parties won 64 seats (down 15), with the populist Party of the People winning 14 seats (up eight). In the Senate, 23 of the 50 seats were up by multi-member PR. Left-wing parties won these seats by 12-11 for an overall 25-25 tie.

US state and local elections live

Live commentary on today’s US Virginia and New Jersey state elections, New York City mayoral election and a referendum in California to enable retaliatory gerrymandering.

Live Commentary

1:52pm Friday I’ve done an article for The Conversation about these elections, Trump’s sliding ratings and the US government shutdown.

9:20am Thursday In the NJ lower house, the NYT has 53 Dems and 19 Reps with eight uncalled. Dems are leading in four of the uncalled seats. If current leads hold up, they will win by 57-23, a five-seat gain.

5:28pm In the Texas 18th federal seat “jungle primary” (this is a special election), the two leading candidates, both Democrats, will advance to a yet to be scheduled runoff. A candidate needs over 50% to win a jungle primary outright, and the top candidate currently has 30.2%. The top Rep got 6.7%.

4:53pm End of day summary In Virginia, Dems won the governorship by 15.2 points, lieutenant governor by 11.4 and attorney general by 6.6 despite a scandal regarding the Dem A-G candidate. Dems won the lower house by 64-36, a 13-seat gain. Virginia voted for Harris in 2024 by 5.8 points.

In NJ, Dems won the governor by 13 points, far exceeding polls that gave them a low single-digit lead. NJ voted for Harris by 5.9 points in 2024. Dems have a 49-19 lead in called NJ lower house races, with 12 uncalled. Dems previously had a 52-28 majority in the NJ lower house.

With 91% in for NYC, Mamdani won the mayoralty by 50.4-41.6 over Cuomo with just 7.1% for Sliwa. In California, with 66% in, Yes to retaliatory gerrymandering leads by 29.4 points. We won’t have final results from NYC or California for some time as they take weeks to count all their votes.

3:23pm Now 50% in from California, and Yes leads by 66-34.

3:09pm Only 2% counted so far in California, but it’s already been called for Yes to retaliatory gerrymandering. Yes leads by 74-26 so far.

3:02pm VPAP now showing only one undecided seat in Virginia, with Dems winning by 64-35, a gain of 13 seats for the Dems. In the NJ lower house, the NYT has Dems winning by 44-14 with 22 still undecided. Dems have retained their hold on the trifecta in NJ and gained a trifecta in Virginia by gaining the governorship. The trifecta means control over both chambers of the legislature and the governor.

2:45pm Dems will win the other NYC races easily, beating the Reps with over 70%. In Pennsylvania, Dems have retained three judges on the state supreme court to keep their 5-2 majority. In Maine, a referendum to require photo ID for voting has been rejected by 23 points with 57% in.

2:37pm It’s now 59-26 in the Virginia lower house to the Dems with 15 undecided, a gain of ten seats for the Dems. Reps lead most of the undecided seats.

2:21pm In the VPAP count of the Virginia lower house, Dems lead Reps by 55-25 with 20 undecided, a gain of eight seats for Dems.

1:51pm According to the Virginia Public Access Project, Dems are winning the Virginia lower house by 40-17 with 43 uncalled. Dems have gained seven seats from the Reps so far.

1:40pm Mamdani CALLED winner of NYC mayor. With 75% in, he leads Cuomo by 50.4-41.3 with just 7.5% for Sliwa.

1:52pm The Dem has been called the winner in NJ governor, currently leading by 15 points with 63% in.

1:27pm With 52% in for NYC, Mamdani’s lead over Cuomo has narrowed to 49.6-41.5. But hardly any further narrowing with 60% in now.

1:15pm The Dem’s lead has narrowed to 15 points in NJ with 52% in, with the NYT expecting her to get a final 56% of the vote.

1:12pm With 38% in for NYC, Mamdani leads Cuomo by 51.2-40.0 with just 8.0% for Sliwa. These would be early votes, so election day votes may favour Cuomo.

12:36pm With 62% counted in Virginia, the Dems lead for governor by 11 points, lieutenant governor by 7 and attorney general by 2. So the scandal about Jones’ texts had an impact, but not enough for him to lose the att-gen race.

12:31pm With 27% in for NJ, the Dem leads by 23 points. If that holds up, the polls in NJ will have badly understated the Dem. But perhaps early votes are mostly counted, and election day votes will help the Rep.

12:29pm With 52% in for the Texas federal special election, the three leading candidates are all Dems, but the leader has 32%, well under the 50% needed to avoid a runoff.

12:15pm With 17% in for NJ, the Dem is up by more than 26 points. The NYT says the remaining vote is “fairly evenly split”, implying an easy Dem win.

12:10pm With 14% in for New Jersey, the Dem leads the governor’s race by 17 points. No NYT estimate of the final result yet.

12:01pm The Dem has been called the winner in Virginia governor.

11:55am With 29% in for Virginia, NYT gives Dem gov candidate 57% when counting complete. Dems still likely to win all three statewide offices.

11:37am With 17% now counted in Virginia governor, the NYT model thinks the Dem will win with 56% of the final vote. The other statewide races are closer, but Dems should win all three.

11:28am For the governor’s race, the Dem is winning all types of votes counted so far, early votes by 21 points, election day votes by 5.5 points and mail votes by 49 points.

11:21am With 2% reporting in Virginia, the Dems lead the governor race by 13 points. They are also 14 points up in the Attorney-General race and 10 points up for lieutenant-governor.

US state elections occur today in Virginia and New Jersey, with the governor and lower house of the legislature up. New York City (NYC) will hold a mayoral election. California holds a referendum on enabling Democratic retaliatory gerrymandering. And there’s a federal special election in a safe Democratic Texas seat. Polls close at 11am AEDT in Virginia, 12 noon in NJ and Texas, 1pm in NYC and 3pm in California.

Late polls in NJ have the Democrat leading by low single-digit margins. Democrats have held the NJ governorship since 2017. In Virginia, where Republicans won the governorship in 2021, the Democrat leads by high single to low double-digit margins. At the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris won NJ by 5.9 points and Virginia by 5.8 points, while Donald Trump won the overall popular vote by 1.5 points.

Virginia also holds statewide contests for lieutenant-governor and attorney-general. A scandal about the Democratic AG candidate’s texts could cost him. Democrats currently hold a 52-28 majority over Republicans in the NJ lower house and a 51-49 majority in the Virginia lower house. Democrats hold a 25-15 upper house majority in NJ and a 21-19 majority in Virginia, which are not up for election.

In NYC, a late AtlasIntel poll gave Democratic nominee and socialist Zohran Mamdani a 44-39 lead over independent Andrew Cuomo with 15% for Republican Curtis Silwa. Cuomo led Mamdani by 50-44 head to head. Other than in the two final AtlasIntel polls, Mamdani has led Cuomo by double digit margins and also led him head to head. In California, “yes” to retaliatory gerrymandering is over 20 points ahead.

The special election in Texas’ 18th is being held eight months after the former Democratic member died, but it’s unlikely to be decided today. It’s a “jungle primary”, where all Democratic and Republican candidates compete and the top two go to a runoff. Unless one candidate gets over 50%, a runoff will need to be scheduled to decide this seat.

Republicans hold the House of Representatives by 219-213 with three vacancies. A Democrat who won a special in Arizona in September has not yet been seated. A special will occur on December 2 in a safe Republican seat in Tennessee.

With the ongoing US government shutdown set to beat the record for the longest shutdown, Donald Trump’s net approval in Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls has slid 5.3 points since October 19 to -12.8. In Fiftyplusone’s generic ballot average, Democrats’ lead over Republicans has changed little, and is now 44.9-41.8.

Netherlands, Bolivia and Chile past and upcoming elections

The 150 Dutch MPs are elected by national proportional representation without a threshold. At the October 29 election, the socially liberal and progressive D66 won 26 seats (up 17 since the 2023 election), the far-right PVV 26 (down 11), the conservative VVD 22 (down two), the Green Left 20 (down five), the conservative CDA 18 (up 13), the far-right JA21 nine (up eight) and the far-right FvD seven (up four).

To reach a majority, 76 seats are needed. It usually takes months after an election to form a government. Other parties have vowed not to work with the PVV, which caused the fall of the last government and this election to be held over two years early. But conservative to far-right parties won a combined 82 seats, so the next government is likely to be a conservative one.

The Bolivian presidential runoff election occurred on October 19. The Movement for Socialism (MAS) had dominated Bolivia since 2005, but at this election they won just 3.2% of the August first round vote, with the runoff contested by two conservative to right-wing candidates, with the more centrist candidate winning by 55.0-45.0. Seats in both houses of the legislature were allocated by PR using the presidential vote. The MAS won just two of 130 seats in the lower house and zero of 36 in the Senate.

Chile presidential and legislative elections will occur on November 16, with a presidential runoff on December 14. Incumbent left-winger Gabriel Boric cannot run owing to term limits. Jeannette Jara is Boric’s candidate and leads right-winger José Kast in first round polls, but other candidates are mostly right-wing, so Kast may win the runoff.

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