Category: US Politics

US debt limit deal: passage through Congress

Will Congress pass the debt limit deal before next Monday’s deadline? Also covered: it’s not looking good for the left in either New Zealand or Spain.

2:29pm The Senate’s roll call vote is now available. There’s no party summary, but just five of the 36 Nays came from Dems. So Dems (including three indies who usually caucus with them) voted in favour by 46-5, while Reps were opposed by 31-17. One Rep missed the vote. So 90% of Senate Dems but just 35% of Senate Reps were in favour of this debt limit deal. That’s much worse for McCarthy than the House vote.

2:11pm The bill has passed the Senate by a 63-36 margin, and now heads to Biden’s desk for his signature. And that’s the end of the 2023 debt limit crisis.

11:42am Friday It looks as if the US Senate could vote for final passage of the debt limit bill about 2pm AEST today (midnight US eastern). Senate leaders have told their colleagues there’s no time for the Senate’s usual delays.

3:57pm There was some drama, with 52 Dems voting for the rule that set the parameters for the debate on the debt limit bill. It’s very unusual for the minority party to give the majority any support on rule votes, but they had to or the rule would have failed owing to 29 Rep defections. The rule passed by 241-187, and there’s speculation a deal was cut between McCarthy and Dem House leader Hakeem Jeffries.

12:15pm The full roll call is now available. Reps voted in favour by 149-71, a 68% “yes” vote, and Dems by 165-46, a 78% “yes” vote. The overall “yes” percentage was 73%. Four missed the vote: two Reps and two Dems.

11:33am Thursday In the end there was no late drama regarding McCarthy’s speakership in the House, and the debt limit compromise bill has been passed by the House by a 314 to 117 margin.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The US House of Representatives, where Republicans hold a 222-213 majority, is expected to vote on the debt limit compromise bill Thursday morning AEST. If this vote is held, I expect it will pass easily as the bill is only being criticized by the right, and Democratic support will make up for Republican defections.

There are two ways right-wing Republicans could derail this vote, both involving the ousting of Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. First, they could attempt to show that McCarthy no longer has the confidence of a majority of House Republicans. Second, they could initiate a “motion to vacate” to the full House. Democrats would then be in the odd position of needing to vote to save McCarthy. If McCarthy were ousted, the House could not consider other business until a new Speaker was elected.

Cooperating with the opposition on a no-confidence vote is much harder in a parliamentary system, as, if it succeeds, the most likely outcome is a new election, not a more right-wing leader. But neither chamber of the US Congress can be dissolved early.

If the bill passes the House, it must still be approved by the Senate, where Democrats hold a 51-49 majority. The Senate can only act quickly if unanimous consent is provided. If even one of the 100 senators is bloody-minded enough to deny unanimous consent to every motion, it will cause major delays. This US ABC article says it could take a week to pass the Senate, and names Republican Mike Lee as someone who could deny unanimous consent. If that occurred, the Senate would not pass the bill until after next Monday’s deadline.

From a tactical perspective, I believe the right’s anger with McCarthy is justified. Democrats made a major blunder by not lifting the debt limit while they still held control of the presidency, House and Senate prior to January 3 this year. As I related on the previous debt limit thread, national polls showed support for spending cuts, that there was little difference in who voters would blame for a default, and that Joe Biden’s ratings were falling.

This was a massive opportunity for McCarthy to force a much worse deal on Biden that would have distressed the left. Instead he let Democrats off the hook for their earlier blunder. In the end, McCarthy was more like a pussycat than a tiger.

If Biden had been forced to agree to an ugly deal, he could have faced a primary challenge to his nomination from the left. As it is, Biden is virtually assured of renomination as the Democratic 2024 presidential candidate.

NZ polls suggest right-wing coalition ahead with election in October

The New Zealand election will be held on October 14. The 120 MPs are elected by proportional representation with a 5% threshold that is waived if a party wins a single-member electorate.

Most polls now have a possible right-wing coalition of National and ACT ahead of Labour (governing) and the Greens, although the gap is close enough in some polls that the Māori party could be decisive (they are likely to win at least one of the seven electorates for those on the Māori roll).

The Kantar Public poll that was taken after the May 18 budget was particularly good for the right, giving National and ACT a 48-42 lead over Labour and the Greens. The last Kantar poll in March had given Labour and the Greens a 47-45 lead.

Spanish election called for July 23 after poor regional results for left

Twelve Spanish regional elections were held last Sunday. The conservative People’s Party (PP) won control of eight regions, the centre-left Socialists two and two are unclear. PP made a total of six gains in control since 2019, five from the Socialists and one from regionalists. There were large vote share increases for PP and the far-right Vox. After these elections, the incumbent Socialist national government announced a national election for July 23, about four months early. Current polling and these regional elections indicate that Spain is likely to be another major European country after Italy last year to fall to the right.

Possible US debt default minus one week

There’s still no debt limit deal with a week left until a possible default. Also covered: recent election results in Thailand, Greece and Northern Ireland councils.

11:09am The full text of the bill to raise the debt limit has now been released. This starts the 72-hour countdown to a vote on Thursday AEST. The House will return on Wednesday AEST. This deal raises the debt limit until after the 2024 presidential election, so if it passes there won’t be another hostage situation with the debt limit until after that election. That’s a win for Biden.

7:23am Monday As expected, Erdogan has won the Turkish presidential runoff election by a 52.1-47.9 margin. In the US, McCarthy is defending the debt ceiling deal against attacks from the right. The text of the bill has not yet been published.

12pm McCarthy said the text of the bill to raise the debt limit would be released tomorrow, with the House vote on Wednesday (Thursday AEST). But will far-right Republicans force a confidence vote in McCarthy? Under the rules he agreed to become Speaker in January, only one member needs to call for a confidence vote in the Speaker.

The US ABC news report says that one senator could potentially delay passage through the Senate for up to a week, so if it passes the House on May 31, it could still be delayed until past the June 5 deadline.

11:20am A tentative deal has now been reached between Biden and McCarthy. McCarthy will give a press conference soon.

10:53am Sunday Still no deal. It appears the biggest disagreement is over a Rep effort to expand work requirements for recipients of food stamps.

The Turkish presidential runoff is today, with polls closing at midnight AEST. Four late polls have Erdogan narrowly trailing, though others still have him ahead. But most polls were wrong in the first round, so Erdogan is still likely to win.

11:45am Saturday The US Treasury said last night that the earliest possible date of default was now June 5, not June 1. There are reports that a deal could be imminent, so the Dow was up 1.0% last night.

12:05pm Friday There’s no deal yet, but Biden and McCarthy both say there was progress in negotiations, so the Dow was only down 0.1% last night. The House has gone into recess, though members have been told to be ready to return if a deal is reached.

In polling news, Biden’s FiveThirtyEight ratings have dropped two points since Monday’s Conversation article to a net -12.4. Polls suggest roughly equal blame if a default occurs between Republicans and Biden. This Political Wire post says that in the 2011 and 2013 debt crises, far more people were blaming Republicans by this stage.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

I covered the US debt limit for The Conversation on Monday. Republicans are demanding spending cuts in return for raising the debt limit that Democrats strongly oppose. As a weak economy in 2024 is likely to hurt Joe Biden, Republicans have an incentive to not compromise. Democrats could have avoided this crisis had they raised the debt limit before the House of Representatives changeover on January 3 this year.

The article also included discussion of national Republican primary polls (Donald Trump is way ahead of Ron DeSantis) and general election Biden vs Trump polls (Trump leads narrowly).

In developments since Monday, the US Treasury reiterated that default could occur as early as June 1, and likely in early June, without congressional action. Negotiations this week between Biden and Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy are still far from a deal. Stock markets are finally starting to notice the debt crisis, with the Dow Jones down for four straight days and down 0.8% last night.

In a national CNN poll released Wednesday AEST, 60% thought the debt limit should only be raised with spending cuts, 24% supported raising it no matter what and 15% didn’t want it raised at all. By 52-42, respondents in a national Marist poll thought spending cuts should be separated from raising the debt limit.

Left-wing Move Forward made big gains at Thai election

The Thai election was held on May 14. Of the 500 lower house seats, 400 were elected by First Past the Post (FPTP) and a further 100 by proportional representation (PR). The left-wing Move Forward won a total of 151 of the 500 seats (up 71 since 2019), beating the Pheu Thai party of former PM Thaksin Shinawatra, which won 141 seats (up five). The two royalist and military parties won a combined 65 seats (down 104).

If Move Forward and Pheu Thai form a coalition, they will have a combined 292 of the 500 seats, easily enough for a majority. However, the military appoints the 250 members of the upper house, and the PM is elected by a combined vote of both chambers. That means 376 votes out of 750 is needed to be PM.

Greek election: another disaster for polls and the left

At last Sunday’s Greek election, all 300 seats were elected by PR with a 3% threshold. The governing conservative New Democracy (ND) won 40.8% (up 0.9% since 2019), the left-wing Syriza 20.1% (down 11.5%), the centre-left PASOK 11.5% (up 3.4%), the Communists 7.2% (up 1.9%) and the far-right EL 4.5% (up 0.8%). Three parties just missed the 3% threshold.

At previous elections, there was a large seat bonus for the party winning the most votes, so seats won are not comparable. ND won 146 of the 300 seats, five short of the 151 needed for a majority. They could probably have formed a coalition with EL (16 seats), but have instead forced a new election on June 25 that will be held using a different form of the bonus seat system (as electoral changes made in the last parliament apply not at the next election, but at the following election). If using the bonus system, ND would easily win a majority.

Syriza performed about 10% worse than in pre-election polls, while ND did about 5% better. The left-wing MeRa25 had 4% in pre-election polls but missed the threshold. This poll failure followed the May 14 Turkish election, when most polls had the right-wing Erdoğan trailing in the first round (he led by 49.5-44.9 and is very likely to win Sunday’s runoff).

Sinn Féin wins most seats at Northern Ireland council elections

At the May 18 Northern Ireland council elections, held using PR with preferences, the left-wing Irish nationalist Sinn Féin won 144 of the 462 councillors (up 39 since 2019(, the conservative Democratic Unionist Party 122 (steady), the centrist Alliance 67 (up 14), the Ulster Unionists 54 (down 21) and the nationalist Social Democratic Labour Party 39 (down 20). This was the first time Sinn Féin was the largest party in NI local government, and the first time nationalist parties had more votes than unionist parties.

UK local elections minus one week

Labour’s poll lead is being reduced, though it’s still a large lead. Also covered: the coming US debt limit crisis and mixed polls in Turkey.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

Local government elections will be held in England on May 4 and Northern Ireland on May 18. Most of the English seats up were last contested in 2019. The BBC’s Projected National Share (PNS), which converts council elections into national vote shares, showed Labour and the Conservatives tied on 28% each with 19% for the Lib Dems in 2019.

Labour’s national poll lead has dropped a little since three weeks ago, but they still have about a 15-point lead over the Conservatives. The Conservatives are probably gaining owing to lower inflation and greater distance since Liz Truss’ disastrous premiership, but Labour’s ads attacking PM Rishi Sunak for being soft on paedophiles have probably not helped.

The best statistic for the local elections is not the total councillors or councils won or lost, but the BBC’s PNS. In 2022, Labour won the PNS by 35-30 over the Conservatives after losing by 36-29 in 2021. A huge win for Labour could put Sunak under pressure, but if Labour flops, the pressure would be on their leader Keir Starmer, as he approved the Sunak attack ads.  The next UK general election is not due until late 2024.

US House passes debt limit increase with spending cuts

I covered the US debt limit in February. Early this morning AEST, Republicans passed a bill through the House of Representatives by a 217-215 margin that raises the debt limit in return for big spending cuts that Democrats strongly oppose. In the earlier article, I said that the US Treasury has been taking extraordinary measures since January to avert default, but those measures could fail by early June without congressional action.

Democrats could have raised the debt limit while they still held control of the presidency, House and Senate before January 2023. Instead, they’ve allowed Republicans to take the US economy hostage. Republicans have an incentive to cause a recession before the 2024 elections.

FiveThirtyEight has started a poll aggregate of the national Republican primary, which will start early next year, although there’s no national primary “date”, with some states voting earlier than others. Former president Donald Trump has 51.1%, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis 24.3% and nobody else has more than 5%. Trump’s lead over DeSantis has been widening over the last two months.

RealClearPolitics poll averages have Trump leading incumbent Joe Biden by 1.3 points in a general election match-up, little different from a DeSantis lead of 1.9 points against Biden. These averages of very early polls may not be correct, but if Trump was unelectable, Biden would have a large lead. The US general election is in November 2024, by which time Biden will be almost 82 and Trump 78. Biden needs a good economy in 2024 to defeat Trump, which congressional Republicans are unlikely to provide.

Turkish elections: May 14

Turkey will hold presidential and parliamentary elections+ on May 14, with a presidential runoff on May 28 if nobody wins a first round majority. In the parliamentary elections, seats are allocated by proportional representation with a 7% threshold. Parties can join alliances and avoid this threshold provided the alliance gets over 7%.

In some of the latest polls, the social democratic Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu leads the right-wing incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdoğan for president by 4-9 points, but is short of the 50% needed to win outright in the first round. Other polls are very close, with some small leads for Erdoğan. There is one pol showing a large lead for Erdoğan, but that’s from a pollster affiliated with Erdoğan’s AKP.

Other recent elections: Finland, Estonia and Nigeria

At the April 2 Finnish election, the centre-left SDP was defeated after one term. Although its vote share rose slightly, it finished just behind two right-wing parties, while former SDP allies all lost seats and votes A new government has not been formed yet, but it will be conservative.

At the March 5 Estonian election, the liberal Reform was re-elected with an increased vote share as the far-right EKRE went backwards.

At the February 25 Nigerian presidential election, the centrist APC’s candidate won 36.6%, defeating the conservative PDP on 29.1% and Labour on 25.4%. Turnout was just 26.7%.

UK local elections minus four weeks

Labour likely to win big at the local elections. Also covered: Trump’s improving chances to win the US Republican nomination, and upcoming New Zealand and Turkish elections.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

Local government elections will be held in England on May 4 and Northern Ireland on May 18. Most of the English seats up were last contested in 2019, at which Labour and the Conservatives tied on 28% each with 19% for the Lib Dems. Labour’s national poll lead is down a little since February, but they still have about a 17-point lead over the Conservatives.

If Labour wins these council elections by the crushing margin polls currently give them, there would be a huge number of Conservative losses, and PM Rishi Sunak would be under pressure, with Boris Johnson a chance at a comeback. The next UK general election is not due until late 2024.

The Scottish National Party’s members elected Nicola Sturgeon’s successor, with the result announced on March 27. Humza Yousaf, who was viewed as the continuity candidate, defeated the socially conservative Kate Forbes by a 52.1-47.9 margin after preferences.

Trump polling strongly for the Republican nomination

Most of this section is based on last Saturday article for The Conversation. Former US president Donald Trump was indicted on March 30 over hush money payments made to a porn star before the 2016 election.

Republican primaries to select their nominee to contest the November 2024 general election start in early 2024. There is disagreement over the size of Trump’s lead, with recent polls rated B+ or better by FiveThirtyEight giving Trump between a five-point and a 30-point lead over Florida Governor Ron DeSantis when other candidates are included. This polling was taken before the indictment, and Trump has surged further ahead since the indictment. No other potential Republican candidate polls higher than mid-single digits.

While the polls disagree on the current size of Trump’s lead, they agree there’s been a recent swing to Trump. A Fox News poll had Trump by 15 points in February, and it recently gave him a 30-point lead. A Quinnipiac poll gave Trump an eight-point lead in February; in late March he led by 14.

If Trump is the Republican nominee, he has a good chance of defeating Biden. Biden’s disapproval rating has been higher than 50% in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate since October 2021. He will be almost 82 by the November 2024 election, while Trump will be 78.

On February 21, Democrats held a federal House seat in Virginia at a by-election by a 74.4-25.6 margin, up from 63.8-36.2 at the 2022 midterm elections. On Tuesday (Wednesday AEST), the left-wing Wisconsin Supreme Court judge candidate defeated the right-wing candidate by a 55.5-44.5 margin. The left now has a 4-3 majority on the Wisconsin Supreme Court, after long dominance by the right.

These results are encouraging for Democrats, but turnout will be much higher in a presidential election, and Trump is attempting to distance himself from hardline anti-abortionists.

Turkish elections: May 14

Turkey will hold presidential and parliamentary elections on May 14, with a presidential runoff on May 28 if nobody wins a first round majority. The right-wing Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been PM or president since 2003, and his main opponent will be the social democratic Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. Some polls show a large lead for Kılıçdaroğlu, but others have it much closer.

In the parliamentary elections, seats are allocated by proportional representation with a 7% threshold, down from 10% previously. Parties can join alliances and avoid this threshold provided the alliance gets over 7%. The main right-wing parties are Erdoğan’s AKP and the MHP. Erdoğan has formed the People’s Alliance, while his major opponents are either in the Nation Alliance or the Labour and Freedom Alliance.

NZ Labour and Greens were just behind National and ACT in early March

The New Zealand election will be held in October using proportional representation with a 5% threshold that is waived if a party wins a single-member seat. There were three polls taken in early March, with all three giving Labour a lead over National. However, the right-wing ACT has been doing better than the Greens, so the overall right vote is still ahead of the overall left. If the election result is this close, the Maori party would be the key.

There’s a hint that support for Labour and the Greens has peaked since Chris Hipkins replaced Jacinda Ardern as PM. The March Morgan poll gave the right a 45-43.5 lead, after a 45.5-45.5 tie in February.

US debt limit, UK local and NZ elections

Democrats’ failure to pass a debt limit increase before Congress changed could bite them. Labour way ahead in the UK and gains some ground in NZ after Jacinda Ardern’s resignation.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The US debt limit is a legislative limit on the total amount of debt the US government can incur. As the US keeps running deficits, the debt keeps rising. Congress could deal with this issue permanently by either removing the debt limit, or increasing it to an arbitrarily high number. But instead Congress has only raised the debt limit enough to give about one year’s grace before it needs to be raised again. The last time the debt limit was raised was in December 2021.

The US already hit the debit limit on January 19, but the Treasury is taking extraordinary measures to delay a default; these measures are expected to last until June. While the US has never defaulted, there have been previous debt limit crises in 2011 and 2013.

The key reason for the 2011 and 2013 crises was divided government; Democrat Barack Obama was president, but Republicans held the House of Representatives. This situation applies now, with President Joe Biden, but Republicans holding the House. Republicans have attempted to use the debt limit to demand spending cuts.

Republicans only hold a 222-212 House majority, and it took 15 rounds of voting for Republican Kevin McCarthy to be elected House Speaker in early January. But right-wing Republicans extracted concessions from McCarthy, and the Speaker decides what comes to the floor. To keep the right happy, McCarthy is likely to deny a vote on any debt ceiling increase that does not include major spending cuts, and such cuts would be unacceptable to Democrats.

Democrats had unified control of the presidency, House and Senate until January 3 when the new House commenced. But they made no serious attempt to raise the debt limit, and avert a crisis until after the 2024 presidential election. If there is a default, the failure to raise the debt limit will come back to bite Democrats, the US generally and the world.

It currently appears unlikely that Biden will face a serious primary challenge for the Democratic nomination. Biden will be almost 82 by the November 2024 presidential election, and has had a disapproval rating over 50% in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate since October 2021.

UK Labour retains huge poll lead with local elections in May

Over 100 days since Rishi Sunak became British PM, Labour has about a 20-point lead over the Conservatives, with Labour in the high 40s, the Conservatives in the mid to high 20s, the Liberal Democrats at 7-10%, the Greens at 4-6% and the far-right Reform at 3-8%. On February 9, Labour easily retained West Lancashire at a by-election by 62.3% to 25.4% over the Conservatives (52.1-36.3 at the 2019 general election).

Local government elections will be held in England on May 4 and Northern Ireland on May 18. Most of the English seats up were last contested in 2019, at which Labour and the Conservatives tied on 28% each with 19% for the Lib Dems. If Labour wins these council elections by the crushing margin polls currently give them, there would be a huge number of Conservative losses, and Sunak would be under pressure, with the Conservatives perhaps moving back to former PM Boris Johnson. The next UK general election is not due until late 2024.

Nicola Sturgeon resigned as leader of the Scottish National Party on Wednesday. A weaker SNP would make it easier for Labour to win seats in Scotland, giving them a better chance to win an overall Commons majority if their current lead shrinks to single digits.

NZ Labour improves, but National + ACT still ahead

The New Zealand election is in October, with proportional representation used with a 5% threshold unless a party wins a single-member seat. Chris Hipkins replaced Jacinda Ardern as Labour leader and PM on January 22. Polls taken since this change have shown Labour narrowly ahead of National or tied, but the right-wing ACT is ahead of the Greens. So the combined vote for National and ACT is still ahead of that for Labour and Greens.

Recent election results

In the January 27-29 Czech presidential runoff, the pro-Western Pavel defeated the populist Babis by a 58.3-41.7 margin. At the February 12 Cypriot presidential runoff, the centre-left and nationalist candidate defeated the far-left candidate by a 52.0-48.0 margin after the conservative candidate was eliminated in the first round.

Position still vacant: US House Speaker

Republican Kevin McCarthy still nowhere near the votes needed to become US House Speaker. Also covered: Senator Kyrsten Sinema’s defection from the Democrats.

12:37pm Tuesday January 10: The House rules package that was proposed to get the far-right Republicans to vote for McCarthy has passed the House by 220-213. Just one Republican voted with all Democrats against this package.

4:47pm Rep Kevin McCarthy has been elected Speaker of the US House of Representatives. In the 15th and final round, he defeated Dem Jeffries by 216-212, with the six previous holdouts all voting “present”. That lowered the requirement for a majority to 215 votes, with 428 total votes for all candidates.

3:47pm McCarthy may have done a deal with Gaetz. It was proposed that the House adjourn until Monday US time, but Reps changed their vote against adjournment, so there’ll be another vote today.

3:18pm Two of the remaining six holdouts voted “present”, but the other four voted for other candidates. McCarthy won 216 of the 432 total candidate votes, which put him one short of a majority (217). The present votes were Matt Gaetz and Lauren Boebert.

9:25am Saturday: It’s been a great day for McCarthy as he flipped 15 of the 21 Rep holdouts in the two rounds this morning, and now leads Dem Jeffries by 214-212 with six votes for another. That’s McCarthy’s first plurality, though he’s still three short of the current 217 needed to win.

The House has adjourned until 10pm US eastern today (2pm AEDT). Two McCarthy supporters were absent this morning, and are expected to return. That will give McCarthy 216 votes, but the votes for a majority will also increase to 218. So McCarthy will need two of the six remaining holdouts to win.

12:17pm House is adjourned until noon Friday US eastern (4am Saturday AEDT).

11:45am Friday There have now been 11 rounds of voting, with five conducted today so far. Dem Jeffries still leads with 212 votes, with Rep McCarthy on 200. McCarthy lost a vote from the absence of Rep Ken Buck. The current threshold to win is 217 votes. There may be a deal between McCarthy and some of the holdouts, and we could see movement to McCarthy in votes later today or tomorrow.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

To win the US House of Representatives Speaker position, a candidate needs a majority of all those voting for a candidate. This is not necessarily a majority of the overall House because abstentions and those voting “present” are not counted. As in Australia, the Speaker position must be filled before the House can consider other business.

At the November midterm elections, Republicans won the House by a 222-213 majority over Democrats, and the death of a Democrat increased that to 222-212 until a by-election is held in February. Tuesday (Wednesday AEDT) was the first sitting of the new Congress since the election.

There have been six rounds of voting for Speaker in two days – the first time the Speaker election has gone to multiple rounds since 1923. Democrat Hakeem Jeffries has united the Democratic caucus to win 212 votes, and is ahead of Republican Kevin McCarthy, who has had between 201 and 203 votes.

McCarthy’s problems are coming from his right, with 20 Republicans voting for another candidate in the latest ballot, and one voting “present”. McCarthy has dropped two votes since the first round to be on 201 votes. In the first three rounds the threshold to win was 218 votes, with that reduced to 217 owing to the “present” vote in the last three.

The longest Speaker election occurred in 1855, when it took 133 rounds of voting over two months for a new Speaker to be chosen. Without a Speaker in place, the House cannot set up committees or start investigations into Joe Biden’s presidency. Republicans want these investigations, so surely they will work out some deal for a Republican Speaker soon?

Senator Kyrsten Sinema switches from Democrat to independent

Most of this section is from this December 19 Conversation article. Shortly after Democrats won the December 6 Georgia Senate runoff election to seal a 51-49 federal Senate majority, Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema defected from the Democrats to become an independent.

Slate reported on a September poll that showed Sinema was unpopular with all Arizona demographics sampled. Sinema was at net -17 overall, net -20 with Democrats and net -18 with Republicans. She performed better with independent voters, but was still at net -10 with them.

Sinema is up for re-election in November 2024. Democrats are likely to run their own candidate against Sinema and a Republican. A December poll for Democrat Ruben Gallego’s campaign gave Sinema just 13% running as an independent behind 41% for Republican Kari Lake and 40% for Gallego. If Sinema did not run, Gallego would lead Lake by 48-47.

Other news: UK, Fiji, Brazil and Israel

It’s over two months since Rishi Sunak became Britain’s PM. Labour continues to hold a massive lead over the Conservatives, with Labour at about the mid 40s and the Conservatives in the mid 20s. At a December 15 by-election in the safe Labour seat of Stretford and Urmston, Labour defeated the Conservatives by 69.6% to 15.9% (60.3-27.5 at the 2019 general election).

The 55 Fijian parliamentary seats are elected by proportional representation with a 5% threshold. After the December 14 election, three opposition parties formed an alliance to oust Frank Bainamarama, who had become PM after a coup in 2007. These three parties combined won 29 of the 55 seats, to 26 for Bainamarama’s FijiFirst. At the December 24 first parliamentary session after the election, Sitiveni Rabuka was elected PM with 28 votes to 27 for Bainamarama, with Bainamarama conceding defeat peacefully.

Following his victory at the October 30 runoff election, the leftist Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) replaced the far-right Jair Bolsonaro as Brazilian president last Sunday. And in Israel, a right-wing government was sworn in on December 29 under former long-serving PM Benjamin Netanyahu after four right-wing parties won 64 of the 120 Knesset seats at the November 1 election.

US Georgia Senate runoff election live

Live commentary from late Wednesday morning on the final contest of the US midterm elections. Also: polls turn against NZ Labour and Jacinda Ardern.

Live Commentary

3:44pm Thursday I’ve done a Conversation article which includes the Georgia Senate runoff result. The big advantage of Dems holding the Senate is that the Senate alone can confirm Biden’s judicial nominations for the next two years.

4:56pm Warnock’s lead out to 51.3-48.7 with 99% reporting. This result means Dems hold the Senate by a 51-49 margin, with Pennsylvania (a Dem gain) the only state to change hands this cycle. But the Senate races up in 2024 are bad for the Dems, as they will be defending 23 seats to just ten Rep defences.

2:59pm CNN and the AP have CALLED for Warnock, who currently leads by 50.7-49.3 with 98% in.

1:50pm The NY Times Needle is back. Warnock’s win probability is over 95% and his final winning margin is projected to be 3.2%. Warnock has just moved ahead in the live count again, but there’s still lots more votes to come in metro Atlanta.

1:37pm Cook Political Report analyst Dave Wasserman has seen enough.

1:23pm Warnock has retaken the lead in the live count, by 50.4-49.6 with 78% in.

1:16pm Back from lunch, and the Needle is still down. Walker is barely ahead now by 50.12-49.88 with 74% reporting. Metro Atlanta should get Warnock home from here.

12:54pm Walker now up by 51.0-49.0 in the live count with 65% in. It was about this time on Nov 8 that his lead maxxed.

12:44pm Live count has Walker hitting the lead by 50.6-49.4 with 59% in. But there’s still lots left to count in Atlanta, so Warnock should win.

12:40pm NY Times Needle has paused updates while they investigate a data issue. It had narrowed just before pausing.

12:26pm Needle now up to a 79% chance of Warnock winning, with a final projected margin of Warnock by 2.5%. That’s with an estimated 53% in.

12:18pm Needle now giving Warnock a 71% chance to win and a 1.8% lead in its final results projections. Still a range of Walker by five to Warnock by nine.

12:01pm Needle so far says result could be between a seven-point win for Walker and a nine-point win for Warnock. Best estimate is Warnock by 0.8%.

11:54am The NY Times needle so far has Warnock barely ahead by 0.8% when all votes are counted. That would line up well with his November 0.9% margin, but be worse than the polls.

11:35am With 34% reporting according to CNN, Warnock leads by 61-39. This would be early votes so far.

9:59am Wednesday Late polls are good news for Dem Warnock, with two giving him a five-point lead and one from the Rep-aligned Trafalgar group giving him a four-point lead. I have an appointment, but will be back at 11:30am.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The United States November 8 midterm elections are not quite finished, as the Georgia Senate contest has gone to a runoff today, with polls closing at 11am Wednesday AEDT. At the November 8 election, Democrat Raphael Warnock won 49.4% and Republican Herschel Walker 48.5%. A Libertarian, with 2.1%, prevented a majority for either candidate, and so the runoff. Polls for the runoff suggest Warnock is narrowly ahead.

Democrats currently lead the Senate by 50-49. Even if Warnock loses, they will still control the Senate on Vice President Kamala Harris’ casting vote. But this election is important because Democrats face a very difficult Senate map in the 2024 elections.

Of the 33 Senate seats up for election in 2024, 23 are Democrat-held and just ten Republican-held. Democrat-held seats include three states – West Virginia, Montana and Ohio – that Donald Trump won easily in both 2016 and 2020. Democrats need to win Georgia next week to have a realistic chance of keeping the Senate after the 2024 elections.

At the November 8 election, Warnock took a big lead in early counting, but his lead fell back as the Election Day votes were counted. Walker led at various points, but late counting in Democratic areas gave Warnock a narrow win. If the result is close, I would not expect this contest to be called until Wednesday night AEDT.

NZ Labour has slid behind National in polls

The next New Zealand election will be held in late 2023. At the October 2020 election, Labour won a landslide, with 50.0% to 25.6% for the conservative National, 7.9% for the Greens and 7.6% for the right-wing ACT. At that election, PM Jacinda Ardern was assisted by her success at keeping COVID out of NZ.

NZ uses proportional representation with a 5% threshold, but parties under 5% can enter parliament by winning a single-member seat. The Maori party won two seats at the 2020 election on only 1.2% of votes.

National has now taken the lead, and the two most recent polls by media pollsters – Reid Research and Kantar Public – would give National and ACT combined a majority. Other polls suggest Labour could cling on with support from the Greens and the Maori party. Labour’s problems are probably due to the waning of the COVID boost and the rise of inflation.

US Georgia Senate runoff election minus four days

The last action of the midterms is important for Democrats’ chances of retaining the Senate after the 2024 elections. Also covered: the Malaysian election and UK developments.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The first section of this article has been copied from my article Thursday mainly about the Victorian upper house results for The Conversation.

The United States November 8 midterm elections are not quite finished, as the Georgia Senate contest has gone to a runoff Tuesday, with polls closing at 11am Wednesday AEDT. At the November 8 election, Democrat Raphael Warnock won 49.4% and Republican Herschel Walker 48.5%. A Libertarian, with 2.1%, prevented a majority for either candidate, and so the runoff. Polls for the runoff suggest Warnock is narrowly ahead.

Democrats currently lead the Senate by 50-49. Even if Warnock loses, they will still control the Senate on Vice President Kamala Harris’ casting vote. But this election is important because Democrats face a very difficult Senate map in the 2024 elections.

Of the 33 Senate seats up for election in 2024, 23 are Democrat-held and just ten Republican-held. Democrat-held seats include three states – West Virginia, Montana and Ohio – that Donald Trump won easily in both 2016 and 2020. Democrats need to win Georgia next week to have a realistic chance of keeping the Senate after the 2024 elections.

Republicans likely won the House of Representatives on November 8 by a margin of 222-213 over Democrats, the exact reverse of Democrats’ 222-213 majority after the 2020 elections. Republicans lead the overall House popular vote by 50.7-47.8 according to the Cook Political Report.

Update Sunday: The final undecided House seat, California’s 13th, has been called for the Republicans, confirming a 222-213 House win.

US polls understated the left, in contrast to polls at other recent major national elections

At the Australian national election, polls overstated Labor’s primary support and understated UAP, although polls were better after preferences as Labor performed better than expected on preference flows. Polls also understated the right at recent Brazilian and Israeli elections.

Polls for the US midterm elections understated the left (Democrats), particularly in some key Senate contests. In New Hampshire, Democrat Hassan defeated Republican Bolduc by 9.1%; polls gave Hassan only about a two-point lead. Democrat Fetterman defeated Republican Oz in Pennsylvania by 4.9%, but most polls gave Oz the lead, although Marist College (Fetterman up six) was an exception. Democrats also outperformed their polls in Arizona and Nevada.

We should not assume that polls will be biased against Warnock in Georgia, just because they were generally biased against Democrats at the midterms. Poll bias can change from one election to another, and the Georgia runoff is a different election.

Anwar Ibrahim finally becomes Malaysian PM

Anwar Ibrahim was finance minister in Mahathir Mohamad’s conservative UMNO government in 1998, but was removed from all posts that year, and jailed in 1999 after a trial for sodomy and corruption that was criticised by human rights groups. At the 2018 election, Mahathir led an anti-UMNO coalition to victory and became PM, but his coalition broke down, and UMNO returned.

Malaysia’s parliament has 222 members elected by first past the post. The November 19 election produced the first hung parliament in its history, with Anwar’s reformist PKR winning 82 seats on 37.5%, with the nationalist BERSATU on 73 seats and 30.4%, and UMNO on 30 seats and 22.4%. Most parties pledged to join a unity government led by Anwar, with a confidence vote scheduled for December 19.

UK Labour maintains huge poll lead, and receives big swing at by-election

It’s over a month since Rishi Sunak became Britain’s PM on October 25. Labour is maintaining a huge lead with its vote in the high 40s in UK national polls, with the Conservatives in the low to mid 20s in most polls. Some of the Conservatives’ losses recently are benefiting the far-right Reform, which was at 9% in a recent YouGov poll.

A parliamentary by-election occurred Thursday in the Labour-held City of Chester. Labour won by 60.8-22.2 over the Conservatives with 8.3% for the Liberal Democrats and 3.5% Greens. At the 2019 general election. Labour won this seat by 49.6-38.3 with 6.8% Lib Dems and 2.6% Greens. This seat was a safe Conservative seat until Labour won it in the 1997 landslide. The Conservatives regained it in 2010, but Labour won it by just 93 votes in 2015 and expanded that margin greatly in 2017.