US Politics – The Poll Bludger

US Tennessee 7 federal special election live

Can Democrats gain a seat Trump won by 22 points in 2024? Also, the Canadian Liberals barely win a parliamentary budget vote.

Live Commentary

3:17pm I’ve done an article for The Conversation about Trump’s ratings and Australian polling.

2:16pm The near-final result is Rep by 53.9-45.1, an 8.8-point margin. That’s still a large swing to the Dems from Trump’s 22.3-point margin in this district in 2024.

1:47pm The Republican has been called the winner, taking Reps to a 220-213 House lead over Dems with two Dem vacancies.

1:37pm The last bit of Davidson reduces the Rep’s lead to 5.4 points with 93% in. The NYT projection is at Rep by 6.9 points.

1:24pm With 81% in, the Rep now leads by 8.0 points. The final NYT estimate is at Rep by 7.7. That’s still a 14.5-point swing to Dems from the 2024 pres results, but a clear Rep win.

12:55pm We now have two nearly complete counties: both rural. The Dems have a swing from the 2024 pres result of 9.3 points in one and 17 points in the other. With 58% in, the Rep has just retaken the lead by 0.3% and the NYT now has him winning by 5.6 points.

12:50pm As the election day vote comes in, counties appear to be becoming more Rep-leaning. The E-day vote has been better for Reps since Trump’s original election in 2016.

12:37pm The Dem takes a 7.2-point lead with results from Davidson. But the NYT still has the Rep winning by 2.9 points when everything counted.

12:24pm Still no results from three counties, including from Davidson which is expected to be heavily Dem. With 26% in, the Rep leads by 16, with the NYT estimate at Rep by 2.9.

12:15pm With 20% in, the Rep lead falls to 12.6 points and the New York Times estimate is for a final margin of 3.1 points to the Rep.

12:10pm Rural counties in TN 7 have reported so far, and the Rep leads by 71-26 with 3% in.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Polls close at 12 noon AEDT today for a federal special election in Tennessee’s Republican-held seventh district. The former member resigned in late July, so there’s a 4.5-month gap from vacancy to election. At the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump won this district by 22.3 points over Kamala Harris.

At 59 state and federal special elections held in 2025, Democrats have improved on the 2024 presidential margins by an average of 13.1 points. An Emerson poll of Tennessee 7 that was taken November 22-24 gave the Republican just a 49-47 lead over the Democrat with 4% for others.

Republicans hold the House of Representatives by 219-213 with two Democratic vacancies: the Texas 18th and New Jersey 11th. A “jungle primary” was held in Texas 18 on November 4, but nobody won over 50%, so a runoff between the two top candidates, both Democrats, will occur on January 31, nearly 11 months after the former member died. NJ 11 will hold a special election on April 16 after NJ governor-elect Mikie Sherrill resigned her House seat. Georgia Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene has announced she will resign on January 5.

Trump’s net approval in Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls has improved two points to -13.1 from a low of -15.0 on November 23. Currently 54.5% disapprove and 41.4% approve. In Fiftyplusone’s aggregate of the generic ballot, Democrats lead Republicans by 4.3 points, a slight improvement for Democrats compared to late October.

In gerrymandering news, the Texas gerrymander that created five additional Republican seats was struck down by a federal court. Republicans have appealed this decision to the Supreme Court, which has put the lower court’s decision on hold while it deliberates. Regardless of the outcome of Texas court cases, California’s Democratic gerrymander remains in place; this was approved at a referendum by 64.4-35.6 (28.8 points).

In final results from other November 4 elections, Democrats won the Virginia governorship by 15.4 points, the attorney-general by 6.6 and lieutenant-governor by 11.6. They won the lower house by 64-36. In NJ, Democrats won the governorship by 14.4 points and the lower house by 57-23. In 2024, Harris won NJ by 5.9 points, Virginia by 5.8 and California by 20.1.

Canadian Liberals barely win budget vote

The centre-left Canadian Liberals hold 170 of the 343 House of Commons seats (up one since the April election owing to a defection from the Conservatives), the Conservatives 143, the separatist Quebec Bloc 22, the left-wing NDP seven and the Greens one. The Liberals are just short of the 172 needed for a majority.

On November 17, the Liberals won a budget vote by 170 to 168 with only the sole Green supporting among non-Liberal parties. The budget was saved by the absence of two NDP and two Conservative MPs. The Liberal Speaker can only vote to break ties. Had the budget vote been lost, a new election would have been required.

Also in Canada, there was a provincial election in Newfoundland and Labrador on October 14. The Conservatives gained government with 21 of the 40 seats (up eight since the 2021 election). The Liberals won 15 seats (down seven) and the NDP two (steady). Vote shares were 44.4% Conservatives (up 5.6%), 43.4% Liberals (down 4.8%) and 8.3% NDP (up 0.3%). All Canadian elections use first past the post.

Right-winger likely to win Chile presidential election

Presidential and legislative elections occurred in Chile on November 16. Left-wing incumbent Gabriel Boric was unable to run owing to term limits. Communist Jeannette Jara, who served in Boric’s administration, won 26.9%, with right-winger José Antonio Kast following with 23.9%. Jara and Kast will proceed to a December 14 runoff. The other candidates were mostly right-wing and polls give Kast a large lead, so Kast should win.

All of the 155 lower house seats were elected by proportional representation in multi-member electorates. Right-wing parties won a combined 76 seats (up five since 2021), two short of a majority. Left-wing parties won 64 seats (down 15), with the populist Party of the People winning 14 seats (up eight). In the Senate, 23 of the 50 seats were up by multi-member PR. Left-wing parties won these seats by 12-11 for an overall 25-25 tie.

US state and local elections live

Live commentary on today’s US Virginia and New Jersey state elections, New York City mayoral election and a referendum in California to enable retaliatory gerrymandering.

Live Commentary

1:52pm Friday I’ve done an article for The Conversation about these elections, Trump’s sliding ratings and the US government shutdown.

9:20am Thursday In the NJ lower house, the NYT has 53 Dems and 19 Reps with eight uncalled. Dems are leading in four of the uncalled seats. If current leads hold up, they will win by 57-23, a five-seat gain.

5:28pm In the Texas 18th federal seat “jungle primary” (this is a special election), the two leading candidates, both Democrats, will advance to a yet to be scheduled runoff. A candidate needs over 50% to win a jungle primary outright, and the top candidate currently has 30.2%. The top Rep got 6.7%.

4:53pm End of day summary In Virginia, Dems won the governorship by 15.2 points, lieutenant governor by 11.4 and attorney general by 6.6 despite a scandal regarding the Dem A-G candidate. Dems won the lower house by 64-36, a 13-seat gain. Virginia voted for Harris in 2024 by 5.8 points.

In NJ, Dems won the governor by 13 points, far exceeding polls that gave them a low single-digit lead. NJ voted for Harris by 5.9 points in 2024. Dems have a 49-19 lead in called NJ lower house races, with 12 uncalled. Dems previously had a 52-28 majority in the NJ lower house.

With 91% in for NYC, Mamdani won the mayoralty by 50.4-41.6 over Cuomo with just 7.1% for Sliwa. In California, with 66% in, Yes to retaliatory gerrymandering leads by 29.4 points. We won’t have final results from NYC or California for some time as they take weeks to count all their votes.

3:23pm Now 50% in from California, and Yes leads by 66-34.

3:09pm Only 2% counted so far in California, but it’s already been called for Yes to retaliatory gerrymandering. Yes leads by 74-26 so far.

3:02pm VPAP now showing only one undecided seat in Virginia, with Dems winning by 64-35, a gain of 13 seats for the Dems. In the NJ lower house, the NYT has Dems winning by 44-14 with 22 still undecided. Dems have retained their hold on the trifecta in NJ and gained a trifecta in Virginia by gaining the governorship. The trifecta means control over both chambers of the legislature and the governor.

2:45pm Dems will win the other NYC races easily, beating the Reps with over 70%. In Pennsylvania, Dems have retained three judges on the state supreme court to keep their 5-2 majority. In Maine, a referendum to require photo ID for voting has been rejected by 23 points with 57% in.

2:37pm It’s now 59-26 in the Virginia lower house to the Dems with 15 undecided, a gain of ten seats for the Dems. Reps lead most of the undecided seats.

2:21pm In the VPAP count of the Virginia lower house, Dems lead Reps by 55-25 with 20 undecided, a gain of eight seats for Dems.

1:51pm According to the Virginia Public Access Project, Dems are winning the Virginia lower house by 40-17 with 43 uncalled. Dems have gained seven seats from the Reps so far.

1:40pm Mamdani CALLED winner of NYC mayor. With 75% in, he leads Cuomo by 50.4-41.3 with just 7.5% for Sliwa.

1:52pm The Dem has been called the winner in NJ governor, currently leading by 15 points with 63% in.

1:27pm With 52% in for NYC, Mamdani’s lead over Cuomo has narrowed to 49.6-41.5. But hardly any further narrowing with 60% in now.

1:15pm The Dem’s lead has narrowed to 15 points in NJ with 52% in, with the NYT expecting her to get a final 56% of the vote.

1:12pm With 38% in for NYC, Mamdani leads Cuomo by 51.2-40.0 with just 8.0% for Sliwa. These would be early votes, so election day votes may favour Cuomo.

12:36pm With 62% counted in Virginia, the Dems lead for governor by 11 points, lieutenant governor by 7 and attorney general by 2. So the scandal about Jones’ texts had an impact, but not enough for him to lose the att-gen race.

12:31pm With 27% in for NJ, the Dem leads by 23 points. If that holds up, the polls in NJ will have badly understated the Dem. But perhaps early votes are mostly counted, and election day votes will help the Rep.

12:29pm With 52% in for the Texas federal special election, the three leading candidates are all Dems, but the leader has 32%, well under the 50% needed to avoid a runoff.

12:15pm With 17% in for NJ, the Dem is up by more than 26 points. The NYT says the remaining vote is “fairly evenly split”, implying an easy Dem win.

12:10pm With 14% in for New Jersey, the Dem leads the governor’s race by 17 points. No NYT estimate of the final result yet.

12:01pm The Dem has been called the winner in Virginia governor.

11:55am With 29% in for Virginia, NYT gives Dem gov candidate 57% when counting complete. Dems still likely to win all three statewide offices.

11:37am With 17% now counted in Virginia governor, the NYT model thinks the Dem will win with 56% of the final vote. The other statewide races are closer, but Dems should win all three.

11:28am For the governor’s race, the Dem is winning all types of votes counted so far, early votes by 21 points, election day votes by 5.5 points and mail votes by 49 points.

11:21am With 2% reporting in Virginia, the Dems lead the governor race by 13 points. They are also 14 points up in the Attorney-General race and 10 points up for lieutenant-governor.

US state elections occur today in Virginia and New Jersey, with the governor and lower house of the legislature up. New York City (NYC) will hold a mayoral election. California holds a referendum on enabling Democratic retaliatory gerrymandering. And there’s a federal special election in a safe Democratic Texas seat. Polls close at 11am AEDT in Virginia, 12 noon in NJ and Texas, 1pm in NYC and 3pm in California.

Late polls in NJ have the Democrat leading by low single-digit margins. Democrats have held the NJ governorship since 2017. In Virginia, where Republicans won the governorship in 2021, the Democrat leads by high single to low double-digit margins. At the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris won NJ by 5.9 points and Virginia by 5.8 points, while Donald Trump won the overall popular vote by 1.5 points.

Virginia also holds statewide contests for lieutenant-governor and attorney-general. A scandal about the Democratic AG candidate’s texts could cost him. Democrats currently hold a 52-28 majority over Republicans in the NJ lower house and a 51-49 majority in the Virginia lower house. Democrats hold a 25-15 upper house majority in NJ and a 21-19 majority in Virginia, which are not up for election.

In NYC, a late AtlasIntel poll gave Democratic nominee and socialist Zohran Mamdani a 44-39 lead over independent Andrew Cuomo with 15% for Republican Curtis Silwa. Cuomo led Mamdani by 50-44 head to head. Other than in the two final AtlasIntel polls, Mamdani has led Cuomo by double digit margins and also led him head to head. In California, “yes” to retaliatory gerrymandering is over 20 points ahead.

The special election in Texas’ 18th is being held eight months after the former Democratic member died, but it’s unlikely to be decided today. It’s a “jungle primary”, where all Democratic and Republican candidates compete and the top two go to a runoff. Unless one candidate gets over 50%, a runoff will need to be scheduled to decide this seat.

Republicans hold the House of Representatives by 219-213 with three vacancies. A Democrat who won a special in Arizona in September has not yet been seated. A special will occur on December 2 in a safe Republican seat in Tennessee.

With the ongoing US government shutdown set to beat the record for the longest shutdown, Donald Trump’s net approval in Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls has slid 5.3 points since October 19 to -12.8. In Fiftyplusone’s generic ballot average, Democrats’ lead over Republicans has changed little, and is now 44.9-41.8.

Netherlands, Bolivia and Chile past and upcoming elections

The 150 Dutch MPs are elected by national proportional representation without a threshold. At the October 29 election, the socially liberal and progressive D66 won 26 seats (up 17 since the 2023 election), the far-right PVV 26 (down 11), the conservative VVD 22 (down two), the Green Left 20 (down five), the conservative CDA 18 (up 13), the far-right JA21 nine (up eight) and the far-right FvD seven (up four).

To reach a majority, 76 seats are needed. It usually takes months after an election to form a government. Other parties have vowed not to work with the PVV, which caused the fall of the last government and this election to be held over two years early. But conservative to far-right parties won a combined 82 seats, so the next government is likely to be a conservative one.

The Bolivian presidential runoff election occurred on October 19. The Movement for Socialism (MAS) had dominated Bolivia since 2005, but at this election they won just 3.2% of the August first round vote, with the runoff contested by two conservative to right-wing candidates, with the more centrist candidate winning by 55.0-45.0. Seats in both houses of the legislature were allocated by PR using the presidential vote. The MAS won just two of 130 seats in the lower house and zero of 36 in the Senate.

Chile presidential and legislative elections will occur on November 16, with a presidential runoff on December 14. Incumbent left-winger Gabriel Boric cannot run owing to term limits. Jeannette Jara is Boric’s candidate and leads right-winger José Kast in first round polls, but other candidates are mostly right-wing, so Kast may win the runoff.

UK, Irish and Argentine electoral events live

This post will cover the UK Labour deputy leadership results announcement tonight, the Irish presidential election results tomorrow and the Argentine midterm elections on Monday.

Live Commentary

1:53pm Liberty Advances was defending 35 of the 127 Chamber seats up and have won 64, a gain of 29. They will now have a total of 111 of the 257 Chamber seats, to 96 for Homeland Force and 20 for United Provinces. In the Senate, LA were defending two seats and gained 11, while HF were defending 15 and lost eight, with UP not defending any of their seven senators. So the Senate is now 26-26 out of 72 between LA and HF with 13 for UP and the remaining seven seats for local provincial parties.

12:08pm Official results are here. With 95% counted, LA defeats HF by 40.8-31.6 and takes 64 of the 127 seats up at this election to 44 for HF. In the Senate, LA has 13 of the 24 senators up at this election, to seven for HF and four for locals. This is a big midterm victory for Javier Milei and his right-wing agenda in Argentina.

11:45am Liberty Advances has won over 40% of the national vote. I can’t find official results.

10:55am Monday We’re still waiting for official results from Argentina, but The Buenos Aires Times says “first murmurings” from Liberty Advances are that it’s “even” between LA and Homeland Force.

7:02am Sunday With results from all 43 electorates in, Connolly wins with 63.4% of the primary vote, with Humphreys on 29.5% and Gavin 7.2%. Turnout was 45.8%, slightly higher than in 2018 (43.9%). But a very high 12.9% of all votes were spoilt (informal). As Connolly received a primary vote majority, there is no need to distribute Gavin’s preferences. Connolly was the left-wing candidate for this largely symbolic office. The current Irish government is a conservative coalition of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil.

8:22pm Based on scrutineers’ reports, Catherine Connolly will win the Irish presidential election.

8:11pm Lucy Powell has been elected Labour’s deputy leader, winning by 54.3-45.7. But only 16.6% of Labour’s members voted.

7:47pm Live election updates in Ireland look very positive for Connolly. These are unofficial figures being reported by scrutineers and journalists.

7:37pm Labour’s new deputy leader will be announced at 8pm AEDT. Counting began in Ireland at 7pm, but we won’t have any official counts until at least one of the 43 electorates used for Irish parliamentary elections is declared, probably after midnight AEDT.

From October 8-23, UK Labour members chose between two candidates for deputy leader: education minister Bridget Phillipson and former leader of the House of Commons Lucy Powell. Phillipson is regarded as PM Keir Starmer’s choice. Results will be announced tonight AEDT. The final Survation poll for LabourList gave Powell a 57-40 lead (57-26 in September).

National voting intentions in the Election Maps UK aggregate are 30.3% for the far-right Reform, 20.1% Labour, 17.8% Conservatives, 13.6% Liberal Democrats and 11.6% Greens. In the last month, there has been movement to the Greens. Reform is still winning a majority of Commons seats in the Nowcast.

The Irish presidential election was held Friday using preferential voting, with vote counting starting tonight AEDT. Final primary votes should be known on Sunday morning. The candidates are independent Catherine Connolly, who is supported by left-wing parties, the conservative Fine Gael’s Heather Humphreys and the conservative Fianna Fáil’s Jim Gavin. Gavin has withdrawn but will still be on the ballot paper. The president is largely ceremonial with a seven-year term. Polls give Connolly a majority excluding undecided and won’t vote.

Polls for midterm elections in Argentina close at 8am AEDT Monday, with first official results likely by 11am. These are the first national elections since the far-right Javier Milei won the presidency in 2023. Of the 257 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, 127 are up for election using proportional representation based on the 24 provinces with a 3% threshold. Eight provinces also hold Senate elections, with three senators up per province. The winning party receives two senators and the runner-up one.

Chamber seats up last faced election in 2021, while Senate seats were last up in 2019. The left-wing Homeland Force (HF) won the presidency in 2019 but performed badly in 2021. They will be defending 46 of the 127 Chamber seats and 15 of the 24 senators up for election.

Mliei’s Liberty Advances (LA) has become the dominant right-wing party, replacing PRO, which has merged with LA. Current Chamber standings are 98 of 257 for HF, 82 for LA and 31 for United Provinces, with the remaining seats for various other parties. In the Senate, HF has 34 of the 72 seats, with 18 for UP and 13 for LA, who are defending only two Senate seats. I believe UP is a right-wing split from HF.

Annual inflation in Argentina fell from a peak of 292% in April 2024 to 32% in September. However, monthly inflation increased from 1.5% in May to 2.1% in September. Perhaps owing to this, HF has gained in national polls in the last few months. Two October polls had a narrow lead for LA, but the other had a seven-point lead for HF.

Other upcoming elections: Netherlands and US states

The Dutch election will occur this Wednesday, using PR to elect the 150 MPs without a threshold. This election is over two years early owing to a collapse in the previous right-wing government after the far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) withdrew. The conservative Christian Democrats (CDA) have surged, with polls suggesting the combined vote for three right-wing parties (PVV, CDA and VVD) will be close to the 76 seats needed for a majority. This election is likely to be another dismal European election for the left.

In September I covered US state gubernatorial elections on November 4 in New Jersey and Virginia, a mayoral election in New York City (NYC), a referendum in California for Democrats to attempt to retaliate to Republican gerrymandering in Texas and a federal special election in a safe Democratic Texas seat.

Non-partisan polls continue to give the Democrats high single-digit leads in NJ and low double-digit leads in Virginia. Polls in California have “yes” to retaliatory gerrymandering 20 points ahead. In NYC, current mayor Eric Adams has withdrawn, but polls have Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani leading Andrew Cuomo by a double-digit margin, though this could narrow if Republican Curtis Silwa also withdrew.

I covered the ongoing US government shutdown for The Conversation on October 9. It’s now the second longest shutdown. Neither Donald Trump’s net approval (-9.2 in Nate Silver’s aggregate) nor the generic congressional ballot (Democrats by 3.1 in G. Elliott Morris’ tracker) have changed much.

US Arizona 7 federal special election live

A special election today for a safe Democratic House seat, US state and local elections on November 4, and UK Labour’s deputy leadership election and dismal polling.

Live Commentary

12:13pm Friday With nearly all votes now counted, the Dem’s lead has expanded slightly to 68.9-29.4, a 39.5-point margin.

4:09pm With all election day precincts reported, the Dem wins by 68.6-29.8 with 87% in. The remaining votes will nearly all be late mail that will be counted in the next few days. The current margin of 39 points is 17 points better for the Dems than Harris’ 2024 margin in this seat.

3:06pm Four counties have finished with their election day precincts, but there are no election day votes yet from Pima. The Dem leads by 70.2-28.1 with 82% in.

1:24pm Santa Cruz now in, and the Dem wins by 70.7-27.5 with 80% in. So far the Dem’s 43-point margin is 21 points greater than Harris’ margin in this district in the 2024 election, but that margin is likely to drop on later counting.

1:15pm There are still no results from Santa Cruz county. Democrats do relatively well in Arizona with the first results (mail votes). The remaining votes will probably skew Republican, reducing the Dem’s margin. Election day votes should report by later today AEST.

1:09pm With 75% in, the Dem has won Arizona 7 by 71-28. This includes early votes from five of the six counties that make up this district, including the most populous county of Pima.

Polls close at 12 noon AEST today for a federal special election in Arizona’s Democratic-held seventh district, with first results expected by 1pm. This seat became vacant after the incumbent died in mid-March, a six-month gap.

At the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris defeated Donald Trump in Arizona 7 by 60.3-38.2, so it should be an easy Democrat hold. At 40 state and federal special elections so far this year, Democrats have improved by an average 15.1 points from the 2024 presidential margin in those districts. This reflects a greater tendency for Democrats to vote in low-turnout specials more than a shift in overall electorate preferences.

Republicans hold the US House of Representatives by 219-213, but a win for Democrats today would make it 219-214. A special election to replace a Democrat who died in early March will occur in Texas on November 4, an eight-month gap. A special to replace a Republican who resigned in late July will be held in Tennessee in early December, a 4.5-month gap.

Trump’s net approval in Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls has dropped a point in the last few days to -8.5 after a long period of stability, possibly driven by concerns over inflation and tariffs. Update Wednesday: Trump’s net approval now down to -9.4.

Other US elections on November 4

Most US state elections are held concurrently with federal elections in November of even-numbered years, but some states hold elections this November. In Virginia and New Jersey, there will be gubernatorial elections. In both these states, the incumbent governors (a Democrat in New Jersey and a Republican in Virginia) are term-limited and cannot run for re-election.

Non-partisan polls in NJ have the Democrat leading the Republican by high single digit margins. In Virginia, the Democrat leads by low double-digit margins. At the 2024 presidential election, Harris won NJ by 5.9 points and Virginia by 5.8 points, while Trump won the overall popular vote by 1.5 points.

There will also be legislative elections for the lower house in both NJ and Virginia. Democrats currently hold a 52-28 majority over Republicans in the NJ lower house and a 51-49 majority in the Virginia lower house. Democrats hold a 25-15 upper house majority in NJ and a 21-19 majority in Virginia, which are not up for election.

The New York City mayoral general election will also occur, after socialist Zohran Mamdani defeated Andrew Cuomo to win the Democratic nomination in June by 56.4-43.6 after preferences. The general election uses first past the post, and Mamdani is assisted by the three other major candidates being to his right.

The Decision Desk poll aggregate gives Mamdani 43.0%, Cuomo 25.6%, Republican Curtis Sliwa 14.5% and current mayor Eric Adams 8.8%. In a recent Emerson poll, Mamdani led Cuomo by 43-28 in the full field, but only by 47-40 head to head.

I previously covered the California referendum for Democrats to retaliate for Texas Republican gerrymandering. A recent Emerson College poll gave “yes” to retaliatory gerrymandering a 51-34 lead.

UK deputy Labour leadership election and Labour’s dismal polls

Angela Rayner was UK Labour’s deputy leader and housing minister until she resigned on September 5 owing to underpayment of stamp duty tax. Candidates for deputy leader were required to win at least 80 MP nominations (20% of all Labour MPs). Two candidates cleared this hurdle by the September 11 deadline: education minister Bridget Phillipson and former leader of the House of Commons Lucy Powell.

Labour party members will choose between these two from October 8-23 with the result announced on October 25. Phillipson is regarded as PM Keir Starmer’s choice. A Survation poll of Labour members gave Powell a 47-30 lead.

In the Election Maps UK national poll aggregate, the far-right Reform has 30.9%, Labour 20.6%, the Conservatives 17.7%, the Liberal Democrats 13.8% and the Greens 9.0%. Reform has been well ahead since the May local elections.

With the UK’s FPTP system, Reform would win 352 of the 650 House of Commons seats on these voting intentions, above the 326 needed for a majority. Labour would win just 107, the Lib Dems 74 and the Conservatives 31. Starmer’s net approval is -33.6%, far worse than Reform leader Nigel Farage’s -13.6%.

US Virginia 11 federal special election live

Democrats should easily retain this seat. Also, California is likely to cancel out Texas’s Republican gerrymander with a Democratic one, and left-wing parties win in Norway.

10:55am With 94% in, the Dem wins by 74.9-25.1 (nearly 50 points). Harris won this district by 34 points, so that’s a 16-point increase in the Dem margin since the 2024 election, in line with the average of special elections this year.

9:33am With 37% in, the Dem is leading the Rep by 74.9-25.1. If this holds, it would be a sizeable improvement for Dems from Harris’ 2024 margin over Trump.

Polls close at 9am AEST today for a federal special election in Virginia’s Democratic-held 11^th district. This seat became vacant after the incumbent died in late May. The 3.5-month gap from the vacancy to the special election is much less time than in two other Democratic-held seats.

There is a six-month gap in Arizona (special election on September 23 after the incumbent’s death in mid-March) and an eight-month gap in Texas (special in early November after death in early March). State governors set special election dates: Virginia and Texas have Republican governors, but Arizona has a Democratic governor.

At the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris defeated Donald Trump in Virginia 11 by 65.2-31.2, so it should be an easy Democrat hold. At 38 state and federal special elections so far this year, Democrats have improved by an average 15.7 points from the 2024 presidential margin in those districts. This reflects a greater tendency for Democrats to vote in low-turnout specials more than a shift in overall electorate preferences.

Republicans hold the US House of Representatives by 219-212, but wins for Democrats today and on September 23 would make it 219-214. A special election to replace a Republican who resigned in late July will be held in Tennessee in early December, a 4.5-month gap; Tennessee has a Republican governor.

Gerrymandering and national polling updates

I covered US gerrymandering in August. Since then, Texas has passed new maps that are expected to give Republicans a five-seat gain, from 25-13 Republican to 30-8. However, Democrats in California have called a November 4 referendum that will propose to return redistricting authority to the state legislature from an independent commission. Democrats expect to gain five seats, offsetting Texas and making California’s delegation 48-4 Democrat from 43-9. Polls of this referendum have “yes” to retaliatory gerrymandering way ahead.

Nate Silver said that, although Republicans hold a “trifecta” (governor and both houses of a state’s legislature) in more states than Democrats, Democratic-run states are more populous, so that Republicans hold only a 153-148 advantage over Democrats in seats that are under trifectas. If both sides aggressively gerrymander their states, it will roughly cancel out. Some Democratic states would first need to annul independent commissions that currently draw boundaries.

In Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Trump’s net approval was -7.3 on Tuesday, with 51.7% disapproving and 44.4% approving. There has been little change in his ratings since late July. In G. Elliott Morris’ tracker of the generic congressional ballot, Democrats lead Republicans by 44.2-41.3, a nearly unchanged margin since August.

Norway, France and Canada

Norway uses proportional representation with a 4% national threshold. At Monday’s election, Labour won 53 of the 169 seats (up five since 2021), the far-right Progress 47 (up 26), the Conservatives 24 (down 12), the agrarian Centre nine (down 19), the Socialist and Red parties combined 18 (down three), the Greens eight (up five) and the Christian Democrats seven (up four).

Overall explicitly left-wing parties won 79 seats (up seven), below the 85 needed for a majority. After the 2021 election, Labour had governed in coalition with Centre and they will still need Centre’s nine seats to get to 88 seats, above the majority threshold. Centre became a member of the left alliance in 2005 after previously supporting the right.

On Monday, François Bayrou, who had been French PM since December, lost a parliamentary confidence vote by 364-194. Bayrou is from President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Ensemble party. It’s the second time since the July 2024 parliamentary election that a PM has lost a confidence vote. Macron must either appoint another PM or call new elections.

Macron unnecessarily called the previous election when Ensemble had a clear lead in the previous parliament, though they were short of a majority. The result was a parliament roughly split between the left, Ensemble and the far-right. When both the left and far-right are opposed, Macron’s governments fail.

Canadian federal Conservative leader, Pierre Poilievre, lost his seat to the Liberals at the April general election. He has returned to parliament via an August 18 by-election in a very safe Conservative seat, winning 80.9% to 9.8% for an independent.

US gerrymandering

Republicans attempt to grab five additional federal seats in Texas by gerrymandering, while Democrats attempt to retaliate in California.

Republicans won the US House of Representatives by 220-215 over Democrats at the November 2024 elections, but they currently hold a 219-212 margin owing to three Democratic deaths where the previous member has not yet been replaced at special elections. Two of these special elections occur in September, with the third in November. One Republican resigned after the “big beautiful bill” passed and will be replaced in December. All of the House will be up for election in November 2026 midterm elections.

At the 2024 election, Republicans won the 38 Texas House seats by 25-13 over Democrats on a popular vote of 58.4-40.4. States usually carry out redistributions of their federal seats early in each decade, based on the once a decade US Census. But at Donald Trump’s urging, Texas Republicans are proposing to grab five additional federal seats by a gerrymander, making the delegation 30-8 Republican.

Republicans hold the 150-seat Texas state House by 88-62, but two-thirds of members are required to be present for a “quorum” to be formed. Without quorum, no business can be conducted. The large majority of the 62 Democratic members fled Texas last week for the Democratic-friendly Illinois, preventing the House from reaching the 100 members needed for quorum, and at least temporarily stopping the gerrymander from passing.

Boundaries for California’s 52 House seats are currently set by an independent commission, but Democrats still had a lopsided 43-9 win over Republicans at the 2024 election from popular votes of 60.5-39.2. The commission was put in the Californian constitution by former governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, and a referendum would be needed to scrap it.

If the Texas gerrymander passes, California Democrats are proposing such a referendum this November that would allow the state legislature to set boundaries for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. A Democratic internal poll gave “yes” to this proposal a 52-41 lead. New York is also proposing retaliation, but their constitutional amendment process is more cumbersome than California’s, so new New York maps won’t be in place until at least 2028.

Trump’s ratings and the generic ballot

In Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Trump’s net approval is currently -8.6, with 52.5% disapproving and 43.9% approving. His net approval has dropped two points in the last month, but improved from a low of -10.3 on July 22, after the Epstein files controversy. Trump’s net approval is ten points higher than it was at this point in his first term.

The generic ballot ascertains which party voters prefer nationally. G. Elliott Morris, the former head of FiveThirtyEight, now has a generic ballot aggregate. This has Democrats leading Republicans by 45.7-43.0 (49.8-47.2 to Republicans at the 2024 House election). The Democratic lead has increased recently, and they’ve been leading since April.

Despite a weak jobs report on August 1 leading to Trump firing the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Trump increasing US tariffs on Thursday to their highest level since 1934, stock markets are doing very well. The S&P 500 (the broadest measure of US market sentiment) surged 0.8% on Friday to close just below a record high set on July 28. I believe Trump’s ratings are likely to hold up about their current level unless the stock market and/or the broader US economy slump badly.

Japanese upper house election

Half of the Japanese upper house is elected every three years; these elections are not held concurrently with lower house elections. Of the 125 seats up at the July 20 election, 50 were elected by national proportional representation and the remaining 75 in single-member or multi-member electorates.

The conservative LDP and their Komeito allies won 47 of the 125 seats up (down 19 since the 2019 election) and hold a total of 122 of the 248 seats, just below the 125 needed for a majority. However, the centre-left Constitutional Democrats made no gains, holding their 22 seats and 38 total, with the gains instead going to two populist right-wing parties, which made 27 combined gains to win 31 seats at this election and 37 total. There was a similar outcome in the October 2024 lower house election.

US polls after passage of Trump’s legislation

Donald Trump’s ratings are little changed since the passage of his “big beautiful bill”. Also covered: a UK Labour defection to a potential Jeremy Corbyn-led party.

Republicans won the US House of Representatives by 220-215 over Democrats at the November 2024 elections, but they currently hold a 220-212 margin owing to three Democratic deaths where the previous member has not yet been replaced at special elections.

On July 3, the House passed the Senate’s version of Donald Trump’s “big beautiful bill (BBB)” by 218-214, with just two Republicans joining all Democrats in opposition. In the Senate, where Republicans hold a 53-47 margin after the 2024 elections, what Democrats call the “big ugly bill” passed by 51-50 on Vice President JD Vance’s tie-breaking vote. Three Republicans had joined all Democrats in opposition. One Republican senator and one House member voted against from the right.

In Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Trump’s net approval is currently -6.7, with 51.4% disapproving and 44.7% approving. Trump’s ratings have barely changed since the BBB was passed, although there haven’t been many recent polls owing to the July 4 US holiday.

In a July 4-7 YouGov poll, Americans were opposed to the BBB by 53-35. On the deficit, 52% thought it would increase due to the BBB, 11% remain about the same and 19% decrease. By 52-28, respondents thought the BBB would hurt the average American, and by 42-24 they thought it would hurt “you and your immediate family”.

The BBB’s passage wasn’t Trump’s only recent victory. The Supreme Court currently has a 6-3 majority for right-wing judges, and they ruled on June 27 by this 6-3 margin that lower court judges cannot now issue nationwide injunctions. Trump’s policies will be harder to challenge in courts.

Musk’s new party and NYC mayoral general election

In other US news, Elon Musk has formed a new party called the “America Party” that will contest the 2026 midterm elections. Musk’s net favourability in Silver’s tracker is currently -21.8, with 56.4% unfavourable and 34.7% favourable. It’s unlikely that his party will succeed with Musk unpopular, but it’s more likely to take votes from Republicans than Democrats.

Socialist Zohran Mamdani defeated Andrew Cuomo by 56.0-44.0 after preferences to win the June 24 New York City Democratic mayoral nomination. The general election will be held on November 4 using first past the post. Cuomo and current mayor Eric Adams, who was elected as a Democrat, will be running as independents, and there’s also a Republican. Polls suggest Cuomo is Mamdani’s biggest threat, but Mamdani may prevail owing to vote splitting between the more conservative candidates.

UK Labour MP defects

On July 3, UK Labour MP Zarah Sultana defected from Labour and announced she would join a potential party led by Jeremy Corbyn. In 2017, the Conservatives suffered a surprise loss of their majority in the House of Commons to Corbyn’s Labour, but Boris Johnson thumped Labour in 2019, ending Corbyn’s leadership. Corbyn was expelled by Labour, but retained his seat at the 2024 election as an independent.

A late June More in Common poll gave a Corbyn-led party 10% of the national vote, with the far-right Reform on 27% (unchanged from the standard poll), Labour 20% (down three), the Conservatives 20% (unchanged), the Liberal Democrats 14% (unchanged) and the Greens 5% (down four).

The Election Maps UK national poll aggregate has Reform leading with 28.8%, with Labour at 24.1%, the Conservatives 17.7%, the Lib Dems 14.2% and the Greens 8.5%. Reform has been the clear leader since the early May local elections. Most recent polls give Labour leader and PM Keir Starmer a net approval below -30

Labour won 411 of the 650 House of Commons seats at the July 2024 election, and they currently have 403 MPs. Despite Labour’s big majority, Starmer was forced into making major concessions to get his welfare reform bill past the second reading on July 1. But 49 Labour MPs still rebelled and it was opposed by all other parties, so it passed by a 335-260 margin.

The Guardian reported Thursday that a Labour-endorsed bill would revert mayoral elections to preferential voting. The Conservatives in 2022 had regressed these elections to FPTP. But Labour has not proposed adopting preferential voting for Commons elections.

New York City Democratic mayoral primary election live

Former New York governor Andrew Cuomo is the favourite to win today’s Democratic mayoral nomination, but a late poll has a socialist ahead.

Live Commentary

5:19pm Wednesday July 2: Preferences were distributed last night, and Mamdani defeated Cuomo by 56.0-44.0.

12:42pm With 90% in, Mamdani leads Cuomo on primary votes by 43.5-36.3. This looks over, but US media won’t call it until the preferential vote tabulation next Tuesday. After the November general election, NYC is likely to have a socialist mayor.

11:49am With 81% in, Mamdani leads on primary votes by 43.8-35.7. If Mamdani’s lead holds up on the remaining votes, he’s very likely to win. Most polls have been very wrong about this contest. The preference tabulation is not until next Tuesday.

11:26am With 54% in, Mamdani’s primary vote lead over Cuomo has been reduced to 43.5-35.4.

11:09am Already we have 38% of votes in, and Mamdani leads Cuomo by 43-34 on primary votes. But these are early votes, and election day votes may be better for Cuomo.

The New York City (NYC) mayoral general election will be held in November. But NYC is strongly Democratic, so the winner of today’s Democratic mayoral primary is likely to win the general. This election uses Australian-style preferential voting.

Polls close at 11am AEST today, but only primary votes will be counted, with the first tabulation of preferences to be held in a week. It will be optional preferential voting, with a maximum of five preferences allowed. Voters won’t number each box as in Australia. Instead, they’ll be presented with five columns. The left column will be the first choice (primary vote), with the fifth column corresponding to the fifth preference. US ballot papers are intended to be read by machines, not hand counted.

It would be better if NYC and other US jurisdictions that use preferential voting had an indicative two candidate count on election night between the two candidates who were thought likely to make the final two. This would mean they wouldn’t usually have to wait for the preference tabulation to call a winner.

Andrew Cuomo was the Democratic governor of New York state from 2011 until his resignation in 2021 owing to sexual harassment allegations. He was elected in 2010 and re-elected in 2014 and 2018. Despite the circumstances of his resignation as governor, Cuomo has a clear lead after preferences in most NYC mayoral polls.

Cuomo and Zohran Mamdani (a socialist) are very likely to be the final two candidates, with Cuomo leading Mamdani by double digit margins after preferences in many polls. However, a late Emerson College poll gives Mamdani a four-point lead over Cuomo after preferences.

Current NYC mayor Eric Adams, who was elected as a Democrat in 2021, is running for re-election as an independent. Adams was indicted last September on federal bribery and fraud charges, but in February federal prosecutors were ordered to dismiss all charges against Adams, who is seen as close to Donald Trump. While the primary uses preferential voting, the November general election will use first past the post. Emerson College polls suggest either Cuomo or Mamdani would easily win in November.

Trump’s national US ratings and Israeli polls

At time of writing on Tuesday, Trump’s net approval in Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls was -6.0, down from -3.7 in early June, with 52.0% disapproving and 45.9% approving. Trump’s net approval on his strongest issue (immigration) has fallen about eight points since early June to -4.1, perhaps owing to the reaction to his handling of protests in Los Angeles.

G. Elliott Morris, who used to run FiveThirtyEight before it was axed, said in polls taken before Trump announced the US bombing of Iran on Saturday night US time, 57% opposed this action while 21% supported it. This compares with 54-41 support for initial military action against ISIS in 2014, 71-27 support for Iraq in 2003 and 88-10 for Afghanistan in 2001.

The next Israeli election is not due until October 2026. Israel uses national proportional representation with a 3.25% threshold to elect its 120 MPs, with 61 needed for a majority. At the November 2022 election, Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud and allied parties won a majority for the right with 64 seats. This election ended a run of five elections in four years.

Current polls give the governing parties combined about 50 seats, with about 65 for the opposition parties. An Arab party that is not part of either the government or opposition has the remaining five seats. Israel’s attack on Iran on June 13 has not made a difference.

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