US Politics – The Poll Bludger

US polls after passage of Trump’s legislation

Donald Trump’s ratings are little changed since the passage of his “big beautiful bill”. Also covered: a UK Labour defection to a potential Jeremy Corbyn-led party.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Republicans won the US House of Representatives by 220-215 over Democrats at the November 2024 elections, but they currently hold a 220-212 margin owing to three Democratic deaths where the previous member has not yet been replaced at special elections.

On July 3, the House passed the Senate’s version of Donald Trump’s “big beautiful bill (BBB)” by 218-214, with just two Republicans joining all Democrats in opposition. In the Senate, where Republicans hold a 53-47 margin after the 2024 elections, what Democrats call the “big ugly bill” passed by 51-50 on Vice President JD Vance’s tie-breaking vote. Three Republicans had joined all Democrats in opposition. One Republican senator and one House member voted against from the right.

In Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Trump’s net approval is currently -6.7, with 51.4% disapproving and 44.7% approving. Trump’s ratings have barely changed since the BBB was passed, although there haven’t been many recent polls owing to the July 4 US holiday.

In a July 4-7 YouGov poll, Americans were opposed to the BBB by 53-35. On the deficit, 52% thought it would increase due to the BBB, 11% remain about the same and 19% decrease. By 52-28, respondents thought the BBB would hurt the average American, and by 42-24 they thought it would hurt “you and your immediate family”.

The BBB’s passage wasn’t Trump’s only recent victory. The Supreme Court currently has a 6-3 majority for right-wing judges, and they ruled on June 27 by this 6-3 margin that lower court judges cannot now issue nationwide injunctions. Trump’s policies will be harder to challenge in courts.

Musk’s new party and NYC mayoral general election

In other US news, Elon Musk has formed a new party called the “America Party” that will contest the 2026 midterm elections. Musk’s net favourability in Silver’s tracker is currently -21.8, with 56.4% unfavourable and 34.7% favourable. It’s unlikely that his party will succeed with Musk unpopular, but it’s more likely to take votes from Republicans than Democrats.

Socialist Zohran Mamdani defeated Andrew Cuomo by 56.0-44.0 after preferences to win the June 24 New York City Democratic mayoral nomination. The general election will be held on November 4 using first past the post. Cuomo and current mayor Eric Adams, who was elected as a Democrat, will be running as independents, and there’s also a Republican. Polls suggest Cuomo is Mamdani’s biggest threat, but Mamdani may prevail owing to vote splitting between the more conservative candidates.

UK Labour MP defects

On July 3, UK Labour MP Zarah Sultana defected from Labour and announced she would join a potential party led by Jeremy Corbyn. In 2017, the Conservatives suffered a surprise loss of their majority in the House of Commons to Corbyn’s Labour, but Boris Johnson thumped Labour in 2019, ending Corbyn’s leadership. Corbyn was expelled by Labour, but retained his seat at the 2024 election as an independent.

A late June More in Common poll gave a Corbyn-led party 10% of the national vote, with the far-right Reform on 27% (unchanged from the standard poll), Labour 20% (down three), the Conservatives 20% (unchanged), the Liberal Democrats 14% (unchanged) and the Greens 5% (down four).

The Election Maps UK national poll aggregate has Reform leading with 28.8%, with Labour at 24.1%, the Conservatives 17.7%, the Lib Dems 14.2% and the Greens 8.5%. Reform has been the clear leader since the early May local elections. Most recent polls give Labour leader and PM Keir Starmer a net approval below -30

Labour won 411 of the 650 House of Commons seats at the July 2024 election, and they currently have 403 MPs. Despite Labour’s big majority, Starmer was forced into making major concessions to get his welfare reform bill past the second reading on July 1. But 49 Labour MPs still rebelled and it was opposed by all other parties, so it passed by a 335-260 margin.

The Guardian reported Thursday that a Labour-endorsed bill would revert mayoral elections to preferential voting. The Conservatives in 2022 had regressed these elections to FPTP. But Labour has not proposed adopting preferential voting for Commons elections.

New York City Democratic mayoral primary election live

Former New York governor Andrew Cuomo is the favourite to win today’s Democratic mayoral nomination, but a late poll has a socialist ahead.

Live Commentary

5:19pm Wednesday July 2: Preferences were distributed last night, and Mamdani defeated Cuomo by 56.0-44.0.

12:42pm With 90% in, Mamdani leads Cuomo on primary votes by 43.5-36.3. This looks over, but US media won’t call it until the preferential vote tabulation next Tuesday. After the November general election, NYC is likely to have a socialist mayor.

11:49am With 81% in, Mamdani leads on primary votes by 43.8-35.7. If Mamdani’s lead holds up on the remaining votes, he’s very likely to win. Most polls have been very wrong about this contest. The preference tabulation is not until next Tuesday.

11:26am With 54% in, Mamdani’s primary vote lead over Cuomo has been reduced to 43.5-35.4.

11:09am Already we have 38% of votes in, and Mamdani leads Cuomo by 43-34 on primary votes. But these are early votes, and election day votes may be better for Cuomo.

The New York City (NYC) mayoral general election will be held in November. But NYC is strongly Democratic, so the winner of today’s Democratic mayoral primary is likely to win the general. This election uses Australian-style preferential voting.

Polls close at 11am AEST today, but only primary votes will be counted, with the first tabulation of preferences to be held in a week. It will be optional preferential voting, with a maximum of five preferences allowed. Voters won’t number each box as in Australia. Instead, they’ll be presented with five columns. The left column will be the first choice (primary vote), with the fifth column corresponding to the fifth preference. US ballot papers are intended to be read by machines, not hand counted.

It would be better if NYC and other US jurisdictions that use preferential voting had an indicative two candidate count on election night between the two candidates who were thought likely to make the final two. This would mean they wouldn’t usually have to wait for the preference tabulation to call a winner.

Andrew Cuomo was the Democratic governor of New York state from 2011 until his resignation in 2021 owing to sexual harassment allegations. He was elected in 2010 and re-elected in 2014 and 2018. Despite the circumstances of his resignation as governor, Cuomo has a clear lead after preferences in most NYC mayoral polls.

Cuomo and Zohran Mamdani (a socialist) are very likely to be the final two candidates, with Cuomo leading Mamdani by double digit margins after preferences in many polls. However, a late Emerson College poll gives Mamdani a four-point lead over Cuomo after preferences.

Current NYC mayor Eric Adams, who was elected as a Democrat in 2021, is running for re-election as an independent. Adams was indicted last September on federal bribery and fraud charges, but in February federal prosecutors were ordered to dismiss all charges against Adams, who is seen as close to Donald Trump. While the primary uses preferential voting, the November general election will use first past the post. Emerson College polls suggest either Cuomo or Mamdani would easily win in November.

Trump’s national US ratings and Israeli polls

At time of writing on Tuesday, Trump’s net approval in Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls was -6.0, down from -3.7 in early June, with 52.0% disapproving and 45.9% approving. Trump’s net approval on his strongest issue (immigration) has fallen about eight points since early June to -4.1, perhaps owing to the reaction to his handling of protests in Los Angeles.

G. Elliott Morris, who used to run FiveThirtyEight before it was axed, said in polls taken before Trump announced the US bombing of Iran on Saturday night US time, 57% opposed this action while 21% supported it. This compares with 54-41 support for initial military action against ISIS in 2014, 71-27 support for Iraq in 2003 and 88-10 for Afghanistan in 2001.

The next Israeli election is not due until October 2026. Israel uses national proportional representation with a 3.25% threshold to elect its 120 MPs, with 61 needed for a majority. At the November 2022 election, Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud and allied parties won a majority for the right with 64 seats. This election ended a run of five elections in four years.

Current polls give the governing parties combined about 50 seats, with about 65 for the opposition parties. An Arab party that is not part of either the government or opposition has the remaining five seats. Israel’s attack on Iran on June 13 has not made a difference.

South Korea and Poland elections wrap

The centre-left Democrats win the South Korean presidential election, while PiS wins in Poland. Also: Canada’s final seat numbers after recounts and the US Democratic deaths that helped pass Trump’s “big beautiful bill”.

11:51am Friday UK Labour has gained a single-member seat from the Scottish National Party at a Scottish parliamentary by-election. Labour’s vote share was down 2.0% since the 2021 Scottish election to 31.6%, but the SNP was down 16.8% to 29.4%. The far-right Reform came third with 26.1% (new) and the Conservatives were down 11.5% to 6.0%. Scotland uses a mixture of single-member seats and proportional representation to elect its 129 MPs. The SNP is in a minority government supported by the Greens. The next Scottish election is due by May 2026.

The South Korean presidential election was held Tuesday using first past the post. The previous president of the right-wing People Power Party, Yoon Suk Yeol, had been impeached and removed for declaring martial law in December, so this election was held about two years early. The centre-left Democratic nominee, Lee Jae-myung, defeated PPP’s Kim Moon-soo by a 49.4-41.2 margin with 8.3% for a third party candidate. At the March 2022 election, Yoon had defeated Lee by a 0.7% margin.

Lee will be sworn in as president today, without a transition period. Democrats have a large parliamentary majority after they won April 2024 parliamentary elections. Democrats have gained unified control of government until at least the 2028 parliamentary elections.

At Sunday’s Polish presidential runoff election, Karol Nawrocki, the candidate of the economically left but socially conservative Law and Justice (PiS) defeated Rafał Trzaskowski, the candidate of the centrist and pro-Western Civic Coalition by a 50.9-49.1 margin. In the May 18 first round, Trzaskowski won 31.4%, Nawrocki 29.5% and the far-right Confederation 14.8%. Trzaskowski had been well ahead in polls before the first round, but polls taken after the first round showed a near-tie.

In October 2023 the Civic Coalition and allies won a parliamentary majority, but the PiS held the presidency, and a presidential veto on legislation can only be overcome with a 60% majority, which the government does not have. With PiS retaining the presidency, they will continue to have veto power over legislation.

Canada, the US, the Netherlands and Portugal

The final seat count from the April 28 Canadian federal election is 169 Liberals out of 343 (up nine from 160 out of 338 in 2021), 144 Conservatives (up 25), 22 Quebec Bloc (BQ) (down ten), seven New Democratic Party (down 18) and one Green (down one). The Liberals are three seats short of a majority.

In my May 20 article, I covered two of the four recounts, one where a Liberal overturned a 44-vote BQ lead to win by just one vote, and the other that confirmed a narrow Liberal win over the Conservatives. In the remaining two recounts, the Conservatives overturned a 12-vote Liberal lead in one seat to win by 12 votes, and the Conservatives won another seat by just four votes, with their margin reduced from 77 votes on the original count.

Donald Trump’s “big beautiful bill (BBB)” passed the US House of Representatives by just a 215-214 margin on May 22. At the November 2024 elections, Republicans won the House by 220-215. Since then, two Republicans who resigned were replaced in special elections on April 1. In March two Democrats died and another died on May 21. Special elections to replace them have not yet been held, with the earliest scheduled for September. Republicans thus currently have a 220-212 House majority. Had these three Democrats still been alive, the BBB may have failed.

Trump’s net approval in Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls has recovered from its low in late April. His net approval was -9.7 in late April, but is now -3.7, with 50.2% disapproving and 46.5% approving. The stock market’s recovery from Trump’s tariff chaos in early April has helped Trump.

The Dutch government collapsed on Tuesday after Geert Wilders’ far-right PVV withdrew from the governing coalition owing to disputes over immigration policy. A new election will probably be held in October. The Netherlands uses national proportional representation without a threshold to elect its MPs.

The Portuguese parliamentary election was held on May 18 using PR by region. Four of the 230 seats were reserved for expatriate Portuguese and were not counted on election night. With these seats now included, results were 91 seats for the conservative AD (up 11 since 2024), 60 for the far-right Chega (up 10) and 58 for the centre-left Socialists (down 20).

Canadian election and US special elections

Poll movement to the Liberals continues in Canada, putting them well over a majority of seats. Also covered: two US federal special elections in safe Republican seats.

Live Commentary

4:36pm Crawford wins by 55.1-44.9 in the Wisconsin state supreme court election with nearly all votes counted. That’s an 11-point swing to the left from the Trump margin in Wisconsin in 2024. The left retains its 4-3 majority on the Wisconsin state supreme court.

12:29pm With 13% reporting in Wisconsin, the left-wing Crawford leads the right-wing Schimel by 51-49 for the supreme court election. I’ll be going out shortly.

11:52am Near-final results are 56.7-42.7 to the Rep in Fl-6, a 14.0-pt margin, and 57.0-42.2 to the Rep in Fl-1, a 14.8-pt margin.

11:28am With 89% counted in Fl-1, the Rep leads by 55.4-43.8. The Reps will win both Fl-1 and Fl-6 by about 13 points, down from Trump’s 37-point margin in 2024 in Fl-1 and 30 points in Fl-6. So big swings to the Dems, but not enough to seriously threaten the Rep holds of these seats. Reps extend their House seat lead to 220-213.

11:13am With all counties in Fl-1 reporting their early votes, the Rep leads by 49.8-49.4, and this lead will grow when election day votes come in.

11:07am The Dem takes a likely very brief 51-48 lead after a populous county’s early vote reported.

11:03am In Florida’s first, the Rep starts out with a 53-46 lead with 10% in. These are early votes, and the Reps did much better on election day.

10:47am Trump will announce new tariffs at 7am AEDT Thursday, so they won’t be imposed today.

10:30am With 72% counted including votes from all counties in this district, the Rep leads by 53.7-45.6, and will win by at least a double digit margin.

10:14am With 49% counted, the Rep takes the lead by 50.6-48.6, and is very likely to win once all votes are counted.

10:03am With 24% reporting in Fl 6, the Dem leads by 53-45. But these are just early votes, and don’t yet account for the Rep election day surge.

9:53am New York Times results are here. While Reps performed weaker than expected in early voting, they’ve had a massive surge on election day in the Florida specials that should get their candidates home easily. This is just party registration data, not votes for candidates.

9:45am Wednesday The addition of polls released Monday has pushed the Liberals up to a 43.2-37.4 vote lead over the Conservatives in the CBC Poll Tracker and a 203-116 seat lead.

The Canadian federal election will be held on April 28, with first past the post used to elect the 343 MPs; 172 seats are required for a majority. The CBC Poll Tracker was updated Monday, and it gives the governing centre-left Liberals 42.0% of the vote (up 4.5 since my previous Canadian article on March 24), the Conservatives 37.5% (up 0.4), the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) 9.1% (down 2.5), the separatist left-wing Quebec Bloc (BQ) 5.5% (down 0.9) (24.6% in Quebec), the Greens 2.8% (down 1.0) and the far-right People’s 2.2% (steady).

Seat point estimates are 197 Liberals (up 23 since my March 24 article), 123 Conservatives (down 11), 19 BQ (down seven), three NDP (down four) and one Green (down one). The Tracker now gives the Liberals an 80% chance of a majority if the election were held now, up from 50% previously. The consolidation of the left-wing vote behind the Liberals is hurting the smaller left-wing parties. The NDP won 25 of the then 338 seats at the 2021 election, but could be wiped out at this election.

This has been a stunning comeback for the Liberals, who were 24 points behind the Conservatives in the Tracker in early January, with the Conservatives winning well over 200 seats. Mark Carney’s replacement of Justin Trudeau as Liberal leader and PM has lifted the Liberals, but I believe Donald Trump is most responsible for the Liberals’ revival. There are still four weeks until the election, so the polls could still turn back in the Conservatives’ favour. But the Liberals are currently ahead.

Trump is set to impose more tariffs at 3pm AEDT Wednesday, and these tariffs could further assist the Liberals in Canada and Labor in Australia. In Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Trump’s net approval is -2.5, slightly down from -2.1 in my previous article.

US federal special elections

Polls close for US federal House special elections (by-elections in Australia) at 10am AEDT Wednesday in Florida’s sixth and 11am in Florida’s first. Florida counts its votes fast. Both seats are safe Republican, with Trump beating Kamala Harris by 30 points in the sixth and 37 in the first according to this spreadsheet of 2024 presidential results by Congressional District. Two polls in the sixth average out to a near-tie between the Democratic and Republican candidates; these polls are difficult to believe.

Republicans hold a 218-213 House majority, so winning these two seats will make it 220-213. Two Democratic members have died recently; they held Arizona’s seventh (Harris by 22) and Texas’ 18th (Harris by 40). The special in Arizona won’t occur until September, while the Texan special has not yet been scheduled. Trump had nominated Elise Stefanik, Republican member for New York’s 21st (Trump by 21), to be his UN ambassador, but he withdrew this nomination on Thursday as Republicans were worried about this seat.

G. Elliott Morris, who used to run FiveThirtyEight before it was axed, said that 14 state special elections have been held so far this year. On average, Democrats are performing ten points better than the Trump vs Harris presidential margin in those same districts.

The swing to Democrats in in line with what occurred in state special elections in 2017, the first year of Trump’s first term. Morris said this does not necessarily reflect a swing in the general electorate towards Democrats, but just that Democrats do well with high-engagement voters, who are most likely to vote in low-turnout specials.

As well as the specials, there will be a Wisconsin state supreme court election, with polls closing at 12pm AEDT Wednesday. While court elections in Wisconsin are officially nonpartisan, Schimel is the right-wing candidate, and is being heavily backed by Elon Musk. Crawford is the left-wing candidate, and the left currently has a 4-3 court majority, with this seat a left defence. Republican-aligned polls have Crawford ahead. Wisconsin voted for Trump by 0.9 points. I will be out on Wednesday afternoon.

Canadian election called for April 28

Mark Carney calls the Canadian federal election just before parliament was due to resume, with the Liberals narrowly ahead of the Conservatives in the polls.

On March 9, Mark Carney, former governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, was elected Liberal leader with 86% of points and 87% of the popular vote. On March 14, Carney replaced Justin Trudeau as Canadian PM. On Sunday (Canadian time), Carney called the Canadian federal election for April 28, about six months early.

Parliament had been due to resume on Monday after it was prorogued for the Liberal leadership election. The governing centre-left Liberals won 160 of the then 338 seats at the September 2021 election, ten short of a majority, and have been reduced to 152 through by-election losses and defections. Carney is not an MP, so he could not address parliament (he will contest Nepean at the election). Perhaps owing to these difficulties, Carney called the election early.

There will be 343 seats elected by first past the post at this election, up from 338 in 2021, so 172 seats will be needed for a majority. The CBC Poll Tracker was updated Sunday, and it gives the Liberals 37.5%, the Conservatives 37.1%, the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) 11.6%, the separatist left-wing Quebec Bloc (BQ) 6.4% (28.4% in Quebec), the Greens 3.8% and the far-right People’s 2.2%. Seat predictions are 174 Liberals, just over a majority, 134 Conservatives, 26 BQ, seven NDP and two Greens.

In early January, just before Trudeau announced he would resign once a new Liberal leader had been elected, vote shares in the Tracker were 44% Conservative, 20% Liberal and 19% NDP. At this point, the Conservatives looked headed for a massive landslide with well over 200 seats, while the Liberals could have fallen into third behind the BQ.

Donald Trump is probably most responsible for the Liberal revival, with his tariffs and his talk of making Canada the 51^st US state pushing Canadians back to supporting the Liberals. Trump is expected to impose more tariffs on April 2, possibly assisting the Liberals further. I believe Trump’s tariffs and associated stock market falls have also helped Labor in Australia.

However, I don’t believe in momentum in elections: just because one party is gaining ground in the polls doesn’t mean that party will continue to gain ground. The massive surge for the Liberals could reverse during the election campaign, perhaps as voters refocus on stuff they don’t like about the Liberals after nearly ten years of Liberal government since Trudeau was first elected in October 2015.

US and Portugal

In Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Trump has a net approval of -2.1 (49.6% disapprove, 47.5% approve). His net approval turned negative on March 11. Trump has fallen from +12 net approval at the start of his term.

A Portuguese parliamentary election will be held on May 18, only 14 months after the March 2024 election. The early election came after the conservative AD, which governed in minority with support from the far-right Chega, lost a confidence vote. Polls indicate another AD-led minority government is likely. Portugal uses proportional representation by region to elect its 230 MPs.

Canadian federal Liberal leadership election live

Mark Carney very likely to replace Justin Trudeau as Liberal leader and Prime Minister, as the Liberals surge back in Canadian federal polls.

12:07pm Tuesday Wikipedia shows the popular votes as well as the points system used (100 points for each of the 343 electorates, for a total of 34,300). Carney won 86.8% of the membership vote out of nearly 152,000 total votes and 85.9% of the points.

9:37am Carney has been elected Liberal leader and will replace Trudeau as PM, after winning a first round majority. Carney won 85.9% of the vote, a bigger share than Trudeau in 2013 (a bit over 80%).

9:04am Monday The CBC has a live blog on the Liberal convention happening now that will announce the winner.

I covered today’s Canadian federal Liberal leadership election in late January and mid-February. Preferential voting is used, with each of Canada’s 343 electorates having 100 points and those points assigned in proportion to votes in that electorate. With a total of 34,300 points, 17,151 are needed for a majority. This system skews towards electorates with relatively few registered Liberal voters.

Voting commenced on February 26 and ends at 6am AEDT Monday, with results to be announced in Ottawa. The winner will replace Justin Trudeau as Liberal leader and PM. Parliament, where the Liberals don’t hold a majority, will resume on March 23 after it was prorogued for the leadership election. The next Canadian federal election is due by October, but it could be held earlier.

Mark Carney, former governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, had 68% among Liberal supporters in a February Léger poll, but a Mainstreet poll gave him only a 43-31 lead over former deputy PM Chrystia Freeland. Carney also has a big lead in endorsements.

All Canadian general elections use first past the post. The CBC Poll Tracker was updated Wednesday. The Conservatives lead the centre-left Liberals by 40.3-30.8, with 14.4% for the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP), 6.8% for the left-wing separatist Quebec Bloc (BQ) (29.1% in Quebec), 4.2% for the Greens and 2.5% for the far-right People’s. Seet estimates are 171 of 343 Conservatives, one short of a majority, 125 Liberals, 31 BQ, 14 NDP and two Greens.

Éric Grenier’s commentary said that polls taken in the last week are not showing the Liberal surge that was seen previously, with a Léger poll giving the Conservatives a 13-point lead, up from three points. However, polls used by the Tracker don’t include Carney in the readout; if they did it would be closer. An EKOS poll that is not yet included in the Tracker gave the Liberals a five-point lead, up from one in the previous EKOS poll.

Conservatives easily win third successive term in Ontario

Ontario is Canadia’s most populous province. At the February 27 election that was held about 15 months early, the Conservatives won 80 of the 124 seats (down three since the 2022 election), the NDP 27 seats (down four), the Liberals 14 (up six) and the Greens two (steady). Conservative Doug Ford became the first premier to win three successive majorities since 1959.

Vote shares were 43.0% Conservatives (up 2.1%), 30.0% Liberals (up 6.1%), 18.6% NDP (down 5.2%) and 4.8% Greens (down 1.1%). Despite the third place in popular votes over 11% behind the Liberals, the NDP won 13 more seats than the Liberals.

US, Austria and Germany

Sadly, FiveThirtyEight has been shut down by US ABC news. However, Nate Silver now has an aggregate of Donald Trump’s approval in US national polls. Trump is at net +0.8 (48.1% approve, 47.3% disapprove). At this stage of his presidency, Trump’s net approval is worse than for any other president going back to Truman, except Trump’s first term.

Special elections (by-elections in Australia) will occur on April 1 in two federal House Republican-held Florida seats. At the 2024 election, Republicans won both these seats by 32-33 points. Republicans hold the House by 218-215, so winning both these special elections will return them to the 220-215 result in 2024.

Austria uses proportional representation with a 4% threshold. At the September 29 election, the far-right FPÖ won 57 of the 183 seats (up 26 since 2019), the conservative ÖVP 51 (down 20), the centre-left SPÖ 41 (up one), the liberal NEOS 18 (up three) and the Greens 16 (down ten). A coalition government of ÖVP, SPÖ and NEOS was formed on March 2, five months after the election.

A week after the February 23 German federal election, where the centre-left SPD finished third behind the far-right AfD and conservative CDU/CSU, a state election was held in Hamburg using PR with a 5% threshold. The SPD won 45 of the 121 seats (down nine since 2020), the CDU 26 (up 11), the Greens 25 (down eight), the Left 15 (up two) and the AfD ten (up three). Despite the losses, the SPD and Greens easily won enough seats for a combined majority.

German election live

Live coverage from Monday morning of today’s German election, where polls remain bleak for the overall left, but the Left party surges above 5%.

Results wrap

While it was expected from pre-election polls, this was a dismal performance for the major left-wing party, the SPD, to lag in third place behind both the AfD and CDU/CSU. The combined vote share for the three coalition parties (SPD, Greens and FDP) was just 32.3% (down 19.5% on these parties’ combined vote in 2021).

Conservative to far-right parties (the CDU/CSU and AfD) won a combined 49.3% (up 14.8%). If the Left party is grouped with SPD and Greens to form an overall left, they won a combined 36.8% (down 8.5%).

With BSW missing out on parliamentary representation by a hair and FDP by a bit more, 13.9% of votes were cast for parties that didn’t qualify. That meant qualifying parties were boosted in percentage of parliamentary seats won relative to their vote shares. In parliament, the CDU/CSU and AfD won a combined 57% of seats to 43% for the SPD, Greens and Left. The likely governing coalition between the CDU/CSU and SPD will have 52% of seats.

Live Commentary

11:55am Those final two seats are in, and BSW has missed out, provisionally winning 4.97%, just short of the 5% threshold. This will give CDU/CSU and SPD a combined 328 of the 630 seats, over the 316 needed for a majority.

11:34am After 297 of 299, BSW has dropped to 4.98%. They will need something from the final two electorates to make it.

11:19am After 290 of 299, the BSW drops back to 4.99%, fractionally below the 5% threshold. So now CDU/CSU and SPD would have a majority.

11:11am After 284 of 299, the BSW has 5.01%!

10:57am After 274 of 299, the BSW is on 5.03%. If that holds, they will win 35 seats, and CDU/CSU plus SPD would only have a combined 309 of the 630 seats, seven short of a majority. In this case, the Greens would also be needed to provide a majority.

10:16am After 234 of 299 electorates, 28.8% CDU/CSU (up 4.3%), 20.7% AfD (up 10.3%), 16.5% SPD (down 9.4%), 11.4% Greens (down 3.0%), 8.7% Left (up 3.9%), 4.9% BSW (new) and 4.3% FDP (down 6.9%). Decision Desk HQ now projects the CDU/CSU will win 211 of the 630 seats, the AfD 151, the SPD 120, the Greens 83, the Left 64 and BSW and the FDP won’t enter parliament. If this is the result, the CDU/CSU plus AfD or CDU/CSU plus SPD will have enough seats for a majority (316 seats).

9:14am After 175 of 299 electorates, the BSW is on 5.01%, just over the 5% threshold, while the FDP remains at 4.1%. So the FDP is likely to lose parliamentary representation while it’s a nailbiter for BSW.

8:51am After 137 of 299 electorates, 29.7% CDU/CSU (up 4.4%), 21.5% AfD (up 10.6%), 15.6% SPD (down 9.3%), 10.9% Greens (down 2.7%), 8.2% Left (up 3.8%), 4.9% BSW (new) and 4.1% FDP (down 6.7%).

7:23am After six of 299 electorates declared, the CDU/CSU has 35.4% (up 4.8% on these seats in 2021), the AfD 25.7% (up 13.0%), the SPD 11.7% (down 9.0%), the Greens 6.6% (down 1.7%), the Left 5.1% (up 2.0%), the BSW 3.9% and the FDP 3.3% (down 6.1%).

6:38am Monday The Guardian’s live blog has exit poll results. The CDU/CSU has 28.6%, the AfD 20.4%, the SPD 16.3%, the Greens 12.3%, the Left 8.5%, the BSW 4.9% and the FDP 4.7%. We will need to wait for results to find out whether BSW and/or the FDP clear the 5% threshold to win seats. The exit polls are close to the pre-election polls.

I covered today’s German federal election in late December, late January and eight days ago. To qualify for a proportional allocation of the 630 seats, parties must either win at least 5% of the national “party” vote, or win at least three of the 299 single-member electorates, which are elected by first past the post. After there were 735 total MPs in 2021 owing to “overhang” and “leveling” seats, reforms will reduce parliament’s size to 630 MPs.

Polls close at 4am AEDT Monday. Exit polls will be released once polls close. The first official results will take at least a few hours because all votes in an electorate need to be counted before any results for that electorate are officially declared. The final make-up of parliament will probably not be determined until Monday afternoon AEDT.

Opinion polls give the conservative CDU/CSU about 29%, the far-right AfD 21%, the centre-left SPD 15%, the Greens 13%, the Left 7%, the economically left but socially conservative BSW 4.5% and the pro-business FDP 4.5%. The CSU only contests elections in Bavaria, while the CDU contests in all other German states. Like Australia’s Liberal and National parties, the CDU and CSU are usually added together in polls.

The German election website Zweitstimme.org has probabilities for each party entering parliament that factor in both the 5% threshold and winning three electorates. The Left has a 97% chance to enter parliament, BSW 24% and the FDP 14%. If the parties near 5% don’t make it into parliament, seats they would have won are reassigned to parties that clear the threshold. So whether a combination of parties will be enough for a majority (316 seats) may depend on how many parties make it into parliament.

According to Zweitstimme, there’s a 100% chance of the CDU/CSU, SPD and Greens winning a combined majority, a 91% majority chance for CDU/CSU and AfD, a 61% chance for CDU/CSU and SPD and a 34% chance for CDU/CSU and Greens. The CDU/CSU has said it won’t form a government with the AfD.

This election will be seven months early owing to a breakdown in the governing coalition of SPD, Greens and FDP. Polls have been bleak for left-wing parties generally since July 2023, when the AfD surged ahead of the SPD into second place behind the CDU/CSU. The Left party had looked doomed to lose parliamentary representation after BSW split from it in early 2024, but they have surged above the 5% threshold in recent weeks, while BSW has slid below.

US: Trump’s ratings and 2024 polls’ performance

The FiveThirtyEight aggregate of US national polls gives Donald Trump a +1.5 net approval rating, down from +3.4 eight days ago. Currently, 48.5% approve and 47.0% disapprove of Trump’s performance.

Nate Silver has a detailed review of the 2024 election polls. The polls did better than in most previous presidential elections in terms of error between the polls’ estimates and the election results, but for the third presidential election in a row they understated Trump’s support. After an excellent performance in 2024, AtlasIntel is now Silver’s top-rated pollster, while Selzer went down after blowing its final Iowa poll.

German election minus eight days

Polls remain bleak for the left shortly before the February 23 election. Also covered: the Canadian Liberal leadership contest, federal election polls and provincial elections.

I covered the February 23 German federal election in late December and late January. To qualify for a proportional allocation of the 630 seats, parties must either win at least 5% of the national “party” vote, or win at least three single-member electorates, which are elected by first past the post,

Polls give the conservative CDU/CSU about 30%, the far-right AfD 20%, the centre-left SPD 15%, the Greens 13%, the Left 6%, the economically left but socially conservative BSW 4.5% and the pro-business FDP 4%. In the last few weeks, there has been some movement to the Left and against BSW, so the Left is likely to clear the 5% threshold, while BSW may fall short.

The SPD, Greens and FDP had formed a coalition government after the September 2021 election, but this coalition broke down in early November, leading to this election being held seven months early. The CDU/CSU has said it won’t form a government with the AfD, but they may need both the SPD and Greens to form a government without the AfD.

Canadian Liberal leadership and federal polls

A new leader of the governing centre-left Liberals to replace Justin Trudeau will be elected on March 9. Preferential voting is used, with each of Canada’s electorates having 100 points and those points assigned in proportion to votes in that electorate. The overwhelming favourite to be next Liberal leader and PM is former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor Mark Carney. Carney has surged from 27% among Liberal supporters in the first Léger poll on January 13 to 57% on January 25 and 68% on February 10.

All Canadian general elections use FPTP. The federal election is due by October, though it could be held earlier if the Liberals are defeated after parliament resumes on March 23. The CBC Poll Tracker was last updated Monday, and it has the Conservatives leading the Liberals by 42.4-25.5 with 16.4% for the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP), 8.1% for the separatist left-wing Quebec Bloc (BQ) (33.3% in Quebec), 4.1% for the Greens and 2.8% for the far-right People’s.

On these vote shares, the Conservatives are expected to win 205 of the 343 seats, the Liberals 79, the BQ 39 and NDP 18, with the Conservatives well above the 172 needed for a majority. In the last month, the Liberals’ vote share has increased from a low of 20.1% and the Conservatives have dropped from a high of 44.8%.

Conservative landslide likely at Ontario election

Ontario is Canada’s most populous province. Conservative Premier Doug Ford called an election for February 27, about 15 months early. The Writ’s current Ontario forecast is for the Conservatives to win 97 of the 124 seats on 44.6% of votes, the Liberals 14 seats on 28.3%, the NDP ten seats on 17.9% and the Greens two seats on 6.2%. This would be the Conservatives’ third successive term.

At the November 26 Nova Scotia election, the incumbent Conservatives were easily re-elected with 43 of the 55 seats (up 12 since 2021). The NDP won nine seats (up three) and the Liberals two (down 15). Vote shares were 52.5% Conservatives (up 14.1%), 22.2% NDP (up 1.2%) and 22.7% Liberals (down 14.0%).

US, UK and Ireland

In the FiveThirtyEight aggregate, Donald Trump’s net approval in US national polls is currently +3.4, with 49.0% approving and 45.7% disapproving. His net approval has dropped from a peak of +8.2 at the start of his term.

The far-right Reform has surged into a tie for the lead with Labour in UK national polls with the Conservatives further behind. The Find Out Now poll, which has a pro-Reform lean, has Reform six points ahead of Labour in its latest poll. Keir Starmer’s net favourability is -33 or worse in most recent polls.

At the November 29 Irish election, the two main conservative parties (Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael) won a combined 86 of the 174 seats, two short of a majority. On January 15, a coalition government was agreed between these two parties and nine of the 16 independents. Fianna Fáil’s Micheál Martin was elected Taoiseach (PM) after winning a parliamentary vote on January 23.

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