Category: British politics

UK and other countries’ polls

How the polls are going in the UK, major western European countries and in three countries that hold elections in 2026.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Instead of an article about an international election, this article covers polls in eight countries. In the UK, the Election Maps UK national poll aggregate has the far-right Reform leading with 27.3%, followed by the Conservatives at 20.0%, Labour at 18.5%, the Liberal Democrats at 14.1% and the Greens at 13.9%.

Labour’s long slide since winning the 2024 election has continued as they’ve fallen into third place, while the Conservatives have recently regained ground from Reform. The Greens have been rising since early September.

With the UK’s first past the post system, Reform would win a narrow majority at an election held now, with 330 of the 650 House of Commons seats. Labour would win just 82 seats, the Lib Dems 77, the Conservatives 55, the Scottish National Party 46 and the Greens 26.

All recent polls have PM Keir Starmer’s net approval below -40, with a YouGov poll giving him his worst score at -61 (76% negative, 15% positive). While Reform leader Nigel Farage and Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch’s net approvals are both in double digit negative territory, they are much better than Starmer’s.

Polls in major western European countries (Germany, France, Italy and Spain)

Since the February German election, the far-right AfD has continued to rise, and is now just ahead or tied with the conservative CDU/CSU in recent polls. At the election, the CDU/CSU won 28.5% and the AfD 20.8%. There has been no recovery in the combined vote for the three main left-wing parties: the centre-left SPD, Greens and Left, with these parties polling 35-37% combined (36.8% combined at the election).

The next French presidential election will be held in April 2027 using a two-round system. Incumbent Emmanuel Macron cannot run owing to term limits. The far-right National Rally’s Marine le Pen was disqualified by a court decision, but substitute Jordan Bardella is in the mid-30s for the first round, far ahead of any other candidate. Bardella’s most likely runoff opponent is Édouard Philippe, Macron’s PM from 2017-20. Polls suggest a rough tie in this runoff scenario.

The next Italian election is due by December 2027, with 37% elected by FPTP and the rest by proportional representation. Polls have the right-wing alliance (PM Giorgia Meloni’s right-wing Brothers of Italy, the far-right League and the conservative Forza Italia) leading the left-wing alliance (the centre-left Democrats, left-wing Five Stars and the Greens) by high 40s to low 40s. The overall support for right and left parties hasn’t changed much since the 2022 election.

The next Spanish election is due by August 2027, using multi-member PR to elect the lower house. The centre-left Socialists have governed since 2018, but most polls have the conservative People’s and far-right Vox combined winning over 50%, and they will easily win a combined majority of lower house seats on these vote shares. There’s been a continued rise in Vox’s vote since the 2023 election.

Polls in countries with 2026 elections (Brazil, New Zealand and Israel)

Legislative and presidential elections will be held in Brazil in October, with the president elected using a two-round system. Centre-left incumbent Lula is far ahead in the first round, with Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former far-right president Jair Bolsonaro (now in jail), his most likely runoff opponent. Most polls have Lula beating Bolsonaro Jr in the runoff, with a closer hypothetical race against the conservative Tarcísio de Freitas.

The New Zealand election is due by next December, with parties either needing at least 5% of the party vote or a single-member electorate to be allocated a proportional share of seats. Polls have the three right-wing parties combined (National, ACT and NZ First) narrowly leading the three left-wing parties (Labour, the Greens and Maori). The gap between the blocs closed in early 2025, but has widened again recently.

The Israeli election is due by October using national PR with a 3.25% threshold. In most polls, PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition has about 50 of the 120 Knesset seats, well below the 61 needed for a majority. However, the opposition bloc also doesn’t have a majority, with unaligned parties (mainly Arab) having the remaining seats. The Netanyahu-aligned Filber and Direct Polls have a right-wing majority.

UK, Irish and Argentine electoral events live

This post will cover the UK Labour deputy leadership results announcement tonight, the Irish presidential election results tomorrow and the Argentine midterm elections on Monday.

Live Commentary

1:53pm Liberty Advances was defending 35 of the 127 Chamber seats up and have won 64, a gain of 29. They will now have a total of 111 of the 257 Chamber seats, to 96 for Homeland Force and 20 for United Provinces. In the Senate, LA were defending two seats and gained 11, while HF were defending 15 and lost eight, with UP not defending any of their seven senators. So the Senate is now 26-26 out of 72 between LA and HF with 13 for UP and the remaining seven seats for local provincial parties.

12:08pm Official results are here. With 95% counted, LA defeats HF by 40.8-31.6 and takes 64 of the 127 seats up at this election to 44 for HF. In the Senate, LA has 13 of the 24 senators up at this election, to seven for HF and four for locals. This is a big midterm victory for Javier Milei and his right-wing agenda in Argentina.

11:45am Liberty Advances has won over 40% of the national vote. I can’t find official results.

10:55am Monday We’re still waiting for official results from Argentina, but The Buenos Aires Times says “first murmurings” from Liberty Advances are that it’s “even” between LA and Homeland Force.

7:02am Sunday With results from all 43 electorates in, Connolly wins with 63.4% of the primary vote, with Humphreys on 29.5% and Gavin 7.2%. Turnout was 45.8%, slightly higher than in 2018 (43.9%). But a very high 12.9% of all votes were spoilt (informal). As Connolly received a primary vote majority, there is no need to distribute Gavin’s preferences. Connolly was the left-wing candidate for this largely symbolic office. The current Irish government is a conservative coalition of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil.

8:22pm Based on scrutineers’ reports, Catherine Connolly will win the Irish presidential election.

8:11pm Lucy Powell has been elected Labour’s deputy leader, winning by 54.3-45.7. But only 16.6% of Labour’s members voted.

7:47pm Live election updates in Ireland look very positive for Connolly. These are unofficial figures being reported by scrutineers and journalists.

7:37pm Labour’s new deputy leader will be announced at 8pm AEDT. Counting began in Ireland at 7pm, but we won’t have any official counts until at least one of the 43 electorates used for Irish parliamentary elections is declared, probably after midnight AEDT.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

From October 8-23, UK Labour members chose between two candidates for deputy leader: education minister Bridget Phillipson and former leader of the House of Commons Lucy Powell. Phillipson is regarded as PM Keir Starmer’s choice. Results will be announced tonight AEDT. The final Survation poll for LabourList gave Powell a 57-40 lead (57-26 in September).

National voting intentions in the Election Maps UK aggregate are 30.3% for the far-right Reform, 20.1% Labour, 17.8% Conservatives, 13.6% Liberal Democrats and 11.6% Greens. In the last month, there has been movement to the Greens. Reform is still winning a majority of Commons seats in the Nowcast.

The Irish presidential election was held Friday using preferential voting, with vote counting starting tonight AEDT. Final primary votes should be known on Sunday morning. The candidates are independent Catherine Connolly, who is supported by left-wing parties, the conservative Fine Gael’s Heather Humphreys and the conservative Fianna Fáil’s Jim Gavin. Gavin has withdrawn but will still be on the ballot paper. The president is largely ceremonial with a seven-year term. Polls give Connolly a majority excluding undecided and won’t vote.

Polls for midterm elections in Argentina close at 8am AEDT Monday, with first official results likely by 11am. These are the first national elections since the far-right Javier Milei won the presidency in 2023. Of the 257 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, 127 are up for election using proportional representation based on the 24 provinces with a 3% threshold. Eight provinces also hold Senate elections, with three senators up per province. The winning party receives two senators and the runner-up one.

Chamber seats up last faced election in 2021, while Senate seats were last up in 2019. The left-wing Homeland Force (HF) won the presidency in 2019 but performed badly in 2021. They will be defending 46 of the 127 Chamber seats and 15 of the 24 senators up for election.

Mliei’s Liberty Advances (LA) has become the dominant right-wing party, replacing PRO, which has merged with LA. Current Chamber standings are 98 of 257 for HF, 82 for LA and 31 for United Provinces, with the remaining seats for various other parties. In the Senate, HF has 34 of the 72 seats, with 18 for UP and 13 for LA, who are defending only two Senate seats. I believe UP is a right-wing split from HF.

Annual inflation in Argentina fell from a peak of 292% in April 2024 to 32% in September. However, monthly inflation increased from 1.5% in May to 2.1% in September. Perhaps owing to this, HF has gained in national polls in the last few months. Two October polls had a narrow lead for LA, but the other had a seven-point lead for HF.

Other upcoming elections: Netherlands and US states

The Dutch election will occur this Wednesday, using PR to elect the 150 MPs without a threshold. This election is over two years early owing to a collapse in the previous right-wing government after the far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) withdrew. The conservative Christian Democrats (CDA) have surged, with polls suggesting the combined vote for three right-wing parties (PVV, CDA and VVD) will be close to the 76 seats needed for a majority. This election is likely to be another dismal European election for the left.

In September I covered US state gubernatorial elections on November 4 in New Jersey and Virginia, a mayoral election in New York City (NYC), a referendum in California for Democrats to attempt to retaliate to Republican gerrymandering in Texas and a federal special election in a safe Democratic Texas seat.

Non-partisan polls continue to give the Democrats high single-digit leads in NJ and low double-digit leads in Virginia. Polls in California have “yes” to retaliatory gerrymandering 20 points ahead. In NYC, current mayor Eric Adams has withdrawn, but polls have Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani leading Andrew Cuomo by a double-digit margin, though this could narrow if Republican Curtis Silwa also withdrew.

I covered the ongoing US government shutdown for The Conversation on October 9. It’s now the second longest shutdown. Neither Donald Trump’s net approval (-9.2 in Nate Silver’s aggregate) nor the generic congressional ballot (Democrats by 3.1 in G. Elliott Morris’ tracker) have changed much.

Welsh Caerphilly parliamentary by-election live

Polls suggest Labour’s vote is set to collapse in a Welsh parliamentary by-election.

12:29pm Plaid Cymru GAINS Caerphilly from Labour, defeating Reform by 11.4 points, with Labour a dismal third and the Tories getting only 2%.

11:18am Friday The BBC is reporting that it’ll be close between Reform and Plaid. Turnout was 50.4% at this by-election. There’s never been a Welsh parliamentary election with a turnout over 50%. A result is “possible” around 12pm AEDT.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Polls close at 8am AEDT Friday for a Welsh parliamentary by-election in Caerphilly. Wales and Scotland use proportional representation methods but with single-member electorates. When an MP for a single-member electorate resigns or dies, a by-election occurs.

At the 2021 Welsh election, Labour won Caerphilly with 46.0%, followed by the centre-left Welsh nationalist Plaid Cymru with 28.4% and the Conservatives with 17.3%. The far-right Reform came sixth with just 1.7%. The 2021 Welsh and Scottish elections were held concurrently with English local elections in which the Conservatives under Boris Johnson easily defeated Labour.

The only poll for this by-election is a Survation poll that has Reform leading Plaid by 42-38 with just 12% for Labour and 4% for the Conservatives. If the result replicates that poll, Labour would finish a distant third in a seat they won by almost 18 points in a poor election for them, while Reform’s vote would be up 40 points.

Labour has been the dominant party at Welsh elections since the first devolved election in 1999, winning half or just under half the seats. The next election is in May 2026 using 96 members elected in 16 six-member electorates. This reform will scrap the single-member electorates, so there won’t be by-elections.

In the Election Maps UK Welsh poll aggregate, Reform leads with 29.3%, followed by Plaid at 26.5%, Labour at 18.5% and the Conservatives at 11.0%. It’s a contest between Reform and Plaid for the most seats, with the once dominant Labour in third. Scottish parliamentary elections will also occur in May 2026. The Scottish National Party (SNP) has dominated since 2011. Polls suggest they will again be the largest party, but fall well short of a majority, with Reform possibly the largest non-SNP party.

On Saturday I will write about the UK deputy Labour leadership election, the Irish presidential election and the Argentine midterm elections. UK and Irish results should start reporting on Saturday night AEDT, with Argentina on Monday morning. The Argentine midterms will be the first national elections since Javier Milei won the presidency in 2023.

Past electoral events: Moldova, Czech Republic and Japan

Moldova uses national PR to elect its 101 MPs with a 5% threshold. At the September 28 election, the governing pro-European PAS won 55 seats (down eight since 2021 but above the 51 needed for a majority), the pro-Russian BEP 26 (down six), the centre-left pro-European Alternative eight (new), the left-wing populist RN six (new) and the right-wing PPDA six (new).

The 200 Czech MPs are elected by regional PR with a 5% national threshold. At the October 3-4 election, the right-wing populist ANO won 80 seats (up eight since 2021), the conservative SPOLU 52 (down 19), the liberal STAN 22 (down 11), the left-wing Pirates 18 (up 14), the far-right SPD 15 (down five) and the right-wing Motorists 13 (new). ANO will be able to form a government with both SPD and Motorists. The previous government was a coalition of SPOLU, STAN and Pirates.

Japan’s conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has held government almost continuously since 1955. On October 4, Margaret Thatcher admirer Sanae Takaichi was elected LDP leader, replacing Shigeru Ishiba, who resigned after the LDP and their Komeito allies combined lost their majorities in both lower and upper house elections in the last year.

After Takaichi’s election as LDP leader, Komeito ditched its coalition with the LDP. However, the LDP formed a coalition with the right-wing Japan Innovation Party. On Tuesday, Takaichi defeated the centre-left Constitutional Democratic Party’s leader by 237 votes to 149 in the lower house to become Japan’s first female PM.

US Arizona 7 federal special election live

A special election today for a safe Democratic House seat, US state and local elections on November 4, and UK Labour’s deputy leadership election and dismal polling.

Live Commentary

12:13pm Friday With nearly all votes now counted, the Dem’s lead has expanded slightly to 68.9-29.4, a 39.5-point margin.

4:09pm With all election day precincts reported, the Dem wins by 68.6-29.8 with 87% in. The remaining votes will nearly all be late mail that will be counted in the next few days. The current margin of 39 points is 17 points better for the Dems than Harris’ 2024 margin in this seat.

3:06pm Four counties have finished with their election day precincts, but there are no election day votes yet from Pima. The Dem leads by 70.2-28.1 with 82% in.

1:24pm Santa Cruz now in, and the Dem wins by 70.7-27.5 with 80% in. So far the Dem’s 43-point margin is 21 points greater than Harris’ margin in this district in the 2024 election, but that margin is likely to drop on later counting.

1:15pm There are still no results from Santa Cruz county. Democrats do relatively well in Arizona with the first results (mail votes). The remaining votes will probably skew Republican, reducing the Dem’s margin. Election day votes should report by later today AEST.

1:09pm With 75% in, the Dem has won Arizona 7 by 71-28. This includes early votes from five of the six counties that make up this district, including the most populous county of Pima.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Polls close at 12 noon AEST today for a federal special election in Arizona’s Democratic-held seventh district, with first results expected by 1pm. This seat became vacant after the incumbent died in mid-March, a six-month gap.

At the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris defeated Donald Trump in Arizona 7 by 60.3-38.2, so it should be an easy Democrat hold. At 40 state and federal special elections so far this year, Democrats have improved by an average 15.1 points from the 2024 presidential margin in those districts. This reflects a greater tendency for Democrats to vote in low-turnout specials more than a shift in overall electorate preferences.

Republicans hold the US House of Representatives by 219-213, but a win for Democrats today would make it 219-214. A special election to replace a Democrat who died in early March will occur in Texas on November 4, an eight-month gap. A special to replace a Republican who resigned in late July will be held in Tennessee in early December, a 4.5-month gap.

Trump’s net approval in Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls has dropped a point in the last few days to -8.5 after a long period of stability, possibly driven by concerns over inflation and tariffs. Update Wednesday: Trump’s net approval now down to -9.4.

Other US elections on November 4

Most US state elections are held concurrently with federal elections in November of even-numbered years, but some states hold elections this November. In Virginia and New Jersey, there will be gubernatorial elections. In both these states, the incumbent governors (a Democrat in New Jersey and a Republican in Virginia) are term-limited and cannot run for re-election.

Non-partisan polls in NJ have the Democrat leading the Republican by high single digit margins. In Virginia, the Democrat leads by low double-digit margins. At the 2024 presidential election, Harris won NJ by 5.9 points and Virginia by 5.8 points, while Trump won the overall popular vote by 1.5 points.

There will also be legislative elections for the lower house in both NJ and Virginia. Democrats currently hold a 52-28 majority over Republicans in the NJ lower house and a 51-49 majority in the Virginia lower house. Democrats hold a 25-15 upper house majority in NJ and a 21-19 majority in Virginia, which are not up for election.

The New York City mayoral general election will also occur, after socialist Zohran Mamdani defeated Andrew Cuomo to win the Democratic nomination in June by 56.4-43.6 after preferences. The general election uses first past the post, and Mamdani is assisted by the three other major candidates being to his right.

The Decision Desk poll aggregate gives Mamdani 43.0%, Cuomo 25.6%, Republican Curtis Sliwa 14.5% and current mayor Eric Adams 8.8%. In a recent Emerson poll, Mamdani led Cuomo by 43-28 in the full field, but only by 47-40 head to head.

I previously covered the California referendum for Democrats to retaliate for Texas Republican gerrymandering. A recent Emerson College poll gave “yes” to retaliatory gerrymandering a 51-34 lead.

UK deputy Labour leadership election and Labour’s dismal polls

Angela Rayner was UK Labour’s deputy leader and housing minister until she resigned on September 5 owing to underpayment of stamp duty tax. Candidates for deputy leader were required to win at least 80 MP nominations (20% of all Labour MPs). Two candidates cleared this hurdle by the September 11 deadline: education minister Bridget Phillipson and former leader of the House of Commons Lucy Powell.

Labour party members will choose between these two from October 8-23 with the result announced on October 25. Phillipson is regarded as PM Keir Starmer’s choice. A Survation poll of Labour members gave Powell a 47-30 lead.

In the Election Maps UK national poll aggregate, the far-right Reform has 30.9%, Labour 20.6%, the Conservatives 17.7%, the Liberal Democrats 13.8% and the Greens 9.0%. Reform has been well ahead since the May local elections.

With the UK’s FPTP system, Reform would win 352 of the 650 House of Commons seats on these voting intentions, above the 326 needed for a majority. Labour would win just 107, the Lib Dems 74 and the Conservatives 31. Starmer’s net approval is -33.6%, far worse than Reform leader Nigel Farage’s -13.6%.

US polls after passage of Trump’s legislation

Donald Trump’s ratings are little changed since the passage of his “big beautiful bill”. Also covered: a UK Labour defection to a potential Jeremy Corbyn-led party.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Republicans won the US House of Representatives by 220-215 over Democrats at the November 2024 elections, but they currently hold a 220-212 margin owing to three Democratic deaths where the previous member has not yet been replaced at special elections.

On July 3, the House passed the Senate’s version of Donald Trump’s “big beautiful bill (BBB)” by 218-214, with just two Republicans joining all Democrats in opposition. In the Senate, where Republicans hold a 53-47 margin after the 2024 elections, what Democrats call the “big ugly bill” passed by 51-50 on Vice President JD Vance’s tie-breaking vote. Three Republicans had joined all Democrats in opposition. One Republican senator and one House member voted against from the right.

In Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Trump’s net approval is currently -6.7, with 51.4% disapproving and 44.7% approving. Trump’s ratings have barely changed since the BBB was passed, although there haven’t been many recent polls owing to the July 4 US holiday.

In a July 4-7 YouGov poll, Americans were opposed to the BBB by 53-35. On the deficit, 52% thought it would increase due to the BBB, 11% remain about the same and 19% decrease. By 52-28, respondents thought the BBB would hurt the average American, and by 42-24 they thought it would hurt “you and your immediate family”.

The BBB’s passage wasn’t Trump’s only recent victory. The Supreme Court currently has a 6-3 majority for right-wing judges, and they ruled on June 27 by this 6-3 margin that lower court judges cannot now issue nationwide injunctions. Trump’s policies will be harder to challenge in courts.

Musk’s new party and NYC mayoral general election

In other US news, Elon Musk has formed a new party called the “America Party” that will contest the 2026 midterm elections. Musk’s net favourability in Silver’s tracker is currently -21.8, with 56.4% unfavourable and 34.7% favourable. It’s unlikely that his party will succeed with Musk unpopular, but it’s more likely to take votes from Republicans than Democrats.

Socialist Zohran Mamdani defeated Andrew Cuomo by 56.0-44.0 after preferences to win the June 24 New York City Democratic mayoral nomination. The general election will be held on November 4 using first past the post. Cuomo and current mayor Eric Adams, who was elected as a Democrat, will be running as independents, and there’s also a Republican. Polls suggest Cuomo is Mamdani’s biggest threat, but Mamdani may prevail owing to vote splitting between the more conservative candidates.

UK Labour MP defects

On July 3, UK Labour MP Zarah Sultana defected from Labour and announced she would join a potential party led by Jeremy Corbyn. In 2017, the Conservatives suffered a surprise loss of their majority in the House of Commons to Corbyn’s Labour, but Boris Johnson thumped Labour in 2019, ending Corbyn’s leadership. Corbyn was expelled by Labour, but retained his seat at the 2024 election as an independent.

A late June More in Common poll gave a Corbyn-led party 10% of the national vote, with the far-right Reform on 27% (unchanged from the standard poll), Labour 20% (down three), the Conservatives 20% (unchanged), the Liberal Democrats 14% (unchanged) and the Greens 5% (down four).

The Election Maps UK national poll aggregate has Reform leading with 28.8%, with Labour at 24.1%, the Conservatives 17.7%, the Lib Dems 14.2% and the Greens 8.5%. Reform has been the clear leader since the early May local elections. Most recent polls give Labour leader and PM Keir Starmer a net approval below -30

Labour won 411 of the 650 House of Commons seats at the July 2024 election, and they currently have 403 MPs. Despite Labour’s big majority, Starmer was forced into making major concessions to get his welfare reform bill past the second reading on July 1. But 49 Labour MPs still rebelled and it was opposed by all other parties, so it passed by a 335-260 margin.

The Guardian reported Thursday that a Labour-endorsed bill would revert mayoral elections to preferential voting. The Conservatives in 2022 had regressed these elections to FPTP. But Labour has not proposed adopting preferential voting for Commons elections.

UK Runcorn and Helsby by-election live

The far-right Reform is a good chance to win this by-election, and is likely to gain massively at local elections. Also: a wrap of Monday’s Canadian election.

Results wrap

According to Wikipedia, Reform won 30% of the BBC’s Projected National Share (up 28 from the 2024 council elections), Labour 20% (down 14), the Lib Dems 17% (steady), the Tories 15% (down 10) and the Greens 11% (down two). If changes are measured from the last time these wards were contested in 2021, Reform is up 30, the Tories down 21, Labour down nine and the Lib Dems steady. It’s the first council elections where the combined share for the Tories and Labour has been below 50%.

With all 23 councils that held elections declared, Reform won 677 councillors (all new), the Lib Dems 370 (up 163), the Tories 317 (down 676), Labour 99 (down 186) and the Greens 80 (up 45). Councils controlled are 10 Reform (new), three Lib Dems (up three), zero Tories (down 16), zero Labour (down one) and ten with no overall control (up four). Of the six mayoralties contested, Labour won three, Reform two and the Tories one.

Live Commentary

8:48pm Slow progress in the council elections, with just over 150 out of over 1,600 total seats declared so far. Reform has 81 councillors (up 81), the Tories 42 (down 66), Labour 14 (down 13) and the Lib Dems nine (up five).

3:14pm Reform has GAINED Runcorn and Helsby from Labour by just six votes.

2:35pm Labour won the West of England and Doncaster mayoralties. In Doncaster, Labour was down 11 points to 32.6%, just ahead of Reform on 31.6% with 26.0% for the Tories. In W of England, Labour won25%, Reform 22%, the Greens 20%, the Tories 17% and the Lib Dems 14%.

1:55pm Labour won the North Tyneside mayoralty by 30.2-29.4 over Reform with 20.5% for the Tories. But Labour’s vote was down 23 points from 2021, while the Tories were down 11.

1:49pm There’s a recount in Runcorn and Helsby. It appears Reform were leading Labour by four votes going into the recount.

10:59am John Curtice says in nine wards that had the same boundaries as in 2021, the Tory vote is down 23 points and Labour down 10. The by-election declaration is expected about 12pm, which I’ll miss.

10:46am Friday So far Reform has won 15 councillors (up 15), the Tories six (down five) and Labour one (down nine).

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

A UK parliamentary by-election will occur today for the Labour-held Runcorn and Helsby, with polls closing at 7am AEST Friday. Labour MP Mike Amesbury resigned in March after being sentenced for assault. At the 2024 election, Labour defeated the far-right Reform in this seat by 52.9-18.1 with 16.0% for the Conservatives, 6.4% for the Greens and 5.1% for the Liberal Democrats. Two seat polls conducted in March gave Reform 3-5 point leads over Labour. Elections covered in this article all use first past the post.

UK local government elections will also be held today. These are held every May, but on a four-year cycle, so most seats up at these elections last faced election in 2021. The BBC calculates a Projected National Share (PNS) for each year’s elections, which allows results for a particular election to be compared to the previous year’s election, and also to the election four years ago. Only English councils are included in this year’s elections.

In 2021, the last time these seats were contested, Boris Johnson was popular, and the Conservatives won the PNS by 36-29 over Labour with 17% for the Lib Dems. In the 2024 local elections, held two months before the general election where Labour won a landslide, Labour won the PNS by 34-25 over the Conservatives, with 17% for the Lib Dems and 12% for the Greens. Usually, PNS only gives vote shares for Labour, the Conservatives and Lib Dems, but Reform should be included this year.

The Election Maps UK national poll aggregate gives Reform 25.4% of the vote (up 1.5 since my April 19 article), Labour 23.9% (down 0.5), the Conservatives 21.3% (down 1.2), the Lib Dems 13.7% (up 0.1) and the Greens 8.9% (down 0.1). Reform has overtaken Labour to lead. If these vote shares are reflected at the local elections, Reform will make massive gains at the expense of the Conservatives, with Labour also slumping. Polls conducted in April gave Labour leader and PM Keir Starmer a net approval below -30.

We are unlikely to see results from the parliamentary by-election until several hours after polls close. I will be out for two hours from 11am Friday. Given the proximity to the Australian election, I don’t intend to follow these elections as closely as I normally would.

Canadian election wrap

At Monday’s Canadian federal election, the centre-left Liberals won 169 of the 343 seats (up nine from 160 of 338 in 2021), the Conservatives won 144 seats (up 25), the separatist left-wing Quebec Bloc (BQ) 22 (down ten), the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) seven (down 18) and the Greens one (down one). The Liberals were three seats short of the 172 needed for a majority.

Vote shares were 43.7% Liberals (up 11.1%), 41.3% Conservatives (up 7.6), 6.3% BQ (down 1.3%) (27.9% in Quebec), 6.3% NDP (down 11.5%), 1.3% Greens (down 1.0%) and 0.7% for the far-right People’s (down 4.2%). Turnout was 68.7% (up 6.4%).

This election was far more proportional than in 2021. FPTP can be roughly proportional, but only if the two biggest parties get a high combined vote share, and there’s a small gap between these two parties. This election had the highest two-party share since 1958. It resembles the UK 2017 election, when the big two parties also surged.

The CBC Poll Tracker’s final aggregate of national polls gave the Liberals a 42.8-39.2 lead over the Conservatives, so the 3.6-point margin slightly overstated the Liberals’ 2.4-point election margin. Two of the three polls that had one-day surveys conducted the day before the election were very accurate, with Liaison giving the Liberals a two-point lead and Nanos a 2.7-point lead.

Seat estimates overstated the Liberals with the Tracker’s point estimate giving the Liberals a 189-125 seat lead. I said previously that I expected the Liberals’ vote efficiency to drop because of the crash in NDP support.

I believe the Liberals slid from a peak lead of 7.1 points in the Tracker on April 8 due to Mark Carney’s fading honeymoon from replacing Justin Trudeau as PM on March 14. Labor in Australia is not affected by a fading honeymoon.

Canadian election live

Live commentary on the Canadian results today. The Liberals remain ahead of the Conservatives in national vote share, and have a good chance to win a majority of seats.

Live Commentary

6:57am Wednesday The Liberals will hold a minority government after winning 169 of the 343 seats, three short of a majority. The Conservatives won 144 seats, the BQ 22, the NDP seven and the Greens one. National vote shares were 43.7% Liberals, 41.3% Conservatives, 6.3% BQ, 6.3% NDP 1.3% Greens and just 0.7% for the far-right People’s.

9:06pm There are still special ballots remaining to be counted, which are cast by mail by voters who will be away from their home divisions on election day. I expect these to favour the Liberals just like absent votes favour Labor in Aus. Counting will resume at 11:30pm AEST tonight. On current figures, the Liberals will be just short of a majority of seats. They’ve won or are leading in 168 (172 is needed for a majority). Poilievre lost his seat.

5:33pm NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has announced he will resign. The Liberals won Singh’s seat.

4:25pm I’ve done a write-up for The Conversation on the Canadian results, and also covered Trump’s slumping US ratings. Tory leader Pierre Poilievre is looking gone in his own seat of Carleton.

2:57pm Tory leader Pierre Poilievre is trailing the Libs by 51.6-45.1 in his own seat of Carleton with 145 of 266 booths in.

2:47pm The Tories have made a number of gains in British Columbia from the collapse of the NDP vote as it hasn’t all gone to the Libs in NDP-held seats.

1:52pm The Tories have gained Windsor West from the NDP because the Lib surge meant the anti-Tory vote in that seat was split between the Libs and NDP.

1:45pm The Liberals have won or are leading in 163 seats, the Tories in 147, the BQ in 24, the NDP in 10 and the Greens in one. Popular votes are 42.6% Libs to 41.7% Tories, 7.9% BQ and 5.4% NDP. With such a high two-party share, the smaller parties are doing well to win as many seats as they are. It looks as if the Lib vote was not as efficiently distributed as in 2021, as I predicted.

1:02pm The CBC’s results are back. The Libs lead by 44.0-40.9 on popular votes with 8% for the BQ and 4.9% NDP. Seats are 159 Libs, 143 Tories, 24 BQ, 10 NDP and one Green. On current counts, the Libs will be short of a majority.

12:40pm With some results from 319 of the 343 seats, it’s 158 Libs, 130 Tories, 23 BQ and eight NDP. If this holds, it wouldn’t quite be a majority for the Libs.

12:27pm CTV News results has the Libs leading or elected in 146 seats, the Tories in 113, the BQ in 24 and the NDP in five.

12:20pm The CBC’s results site has crashed! But they project the Liberals will form the next government, no projection yet for whether it’s minority or majority.

12:07pm The Libs are leading the seat count now by 108-79 with 16 BQ and 3 NDP. They lead the popular vote by 50.6-38.5. This is now looking like a Liberal landslide.

12:04pm The CBC has called a Lib GAIN from Tory in a Nova Scotia seat.

11:58am So far in Ontario, the most populous province with 121 seats, the Libs lead the Tories by 32-22 in seats although the Tories are leading on popular votes by 47.5-45.7. Rural booths are probably reporting first, so it’s likely there’s a pro-Tory bias in votes counted so far.

11:52am Libs leading in seats by 72-52 over Tories with 10 BQ and 1 NDP.

11:40am Libs now leading the seat count over the Tories by 37-26 on popular votes of 51.5-40.1. BQ leading in 12 seats and NDP in one.

11:29am With polls about to close in the large majority of Canada, Libs lead in seats by 22-10 and in popular votes by 52.2-40.4. Two Quebec seats were in Atlantic time and have reported results, with the BQ leading in both.

11:08am Liberal popular vote lead now just over ten points.

10:52am Liberals’ popular vote margin over the Tories up to eight points. I’ve read comments here from BTsays that pollsters had the Libs doing better with early votes than on election day. These votes won’t appear until later.

10:32am The CBC has called a GAIN for the Tories from the Libs in Long Range Mountain.

10:29am The Liberals are now leading the seat count by 22-9 and the vote count by 50-44. But they’re NOT 21 points ahead in Atlantic Canada.

10:06am The Liberals have now taken a three-point lead in popular votes.

10:01am The Liberals lead the Tories by 16 seats to 5, but the Tories lead in popular votes currently by 48-46. This isn’t looking like a 21-point Liberal popular vote margin in Atlantic Canada, but perhaps votes counted are mostly rural and/or the Liberals will do better once the pre-poll votes are counted.

9:44am In Newfoundland, the 2021 result was a Liberal win by 47.7-32.5 in popular votes over the Tories and the Liberals won six of the seven seats. Currently the Tories are leading by 52.1-42.5 in popular votes, although the Liberals are leading in four of the seven seats. Perhaps votes counted so far are more rural.

9:07am The first polls have closed in one of the small Atlantic provinces that’s 30 minutes ahead of the rest of Atl Can. The CBC results are here.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Results for the Canadian federal election will be out today. First past the post is used to elect the 343 MPs, with 172 seats required for a majority. Polls in the 32 Atlantic Canada seats close by 9:30am AEST. At 11:30am AEST, the large majority of polls close simultaneously owing to staggered polling hours across three time zones. At 12pm AEST, the final polls close in British Columbia (43 seats).

Vote counting will initially be fast, but will slow down as election-day booths are exhausted, with the final booths being early voting centres, like in Australia. Elections Canada said 7.3 million had voted during the advance voting period from April 18-21, an increase of 25% from 2021. This represents about 25% of all eligible voters. Canadian media don’t attempt to use booth-matched results. Seat totals are reported as “won” (called for a candidate) and “leading”.

The CBC Poll Tracker was updated for the final time late Sunday (the last pre-election day), and it gives the governing centre-left Liberals 42.8% of the vote (up 0.5 since my previous Canadian article on Saturday), the Conservatives 39.2% (up 0.6), the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) 8.1% (down 0.5), the separatist left-wing Quebec Bloc (BQ) 6.0% (steady) (26.1% in Quebec), the Greens 1.8% (down 0.5) and the far-right People’s 1.3% (down 0.1).

Seat point estimates are 189 Liberals (down one since Saturday), 125 Conservatives (steady), 23 BQ (up one), five NDP (steady) and one Green (steady). The Tracker now gives the Liberals a 70% chance of a majority, down from 73% previously. They have a 19% chance to win the most seats but not a majority. The Conservatives have a 10% chance to win the most seats and just a 1% chance of a majority. The polls would need to be very wrong for this to occur.

The Liberal lead over the Conservatives in the Tracker has fallen from its peak of 7.1 points on April 8 to 3.6 points now. The most likely reason for this movement is that Mark Carney’s honeymoon from replacing Justin Trudeau on March 14 as Liberal leader and PM has faded.

On Saturday night, at least 11 people were killed when an SUV drove into a crowd of Filipinos in Vancouver. This was likely a racist attack against Filipinos, so it shouldn’t hurt the Liberals. In Liaison, Nanos and Forum polls conducted Sunday (one-day polls), the Liberal lead was respectively 2, 2.7 and 4 points.

Atlantic Canada has four low-population provinces, and the Liberals hold a 21-point lead over the Conservatives in this region in the Tracker.  The early results from Atlantic Canada could give clues about how accurate the polls are.

The Liberal vote is more efficiently distributed than the Conservative vote owing to Conservative vote wastage in safe rural seats. At the 2021 election, the Liberals won 160 of the then 338 seats on 32.6%, with the Conservatives winning 119 seats on 33.7%.

However, there would have been many seats in 2021 where the Liberal’s margin was relatively low owing to a high NDP or BQ vote. With support for the NDP halved from 17.8% in 2021, the Liberal margin in these seats will increase, leading to more Liberal vote wastage and a less efficiently distributed vote.

UK local elections and a parliamentary by-election on Thursday

UK local government elections and aparliamentary by-election in Labour-held Runcorn and Helsby will be held on Thursday, with polls closing at 7am AEST Friday. I don’t expect results from the by-election for several hours after polls close. I previously covered these elections on April 19.

Canadian election minus nine days

The Liberal lead drops slightly, but they are still likely to win a seat majority on April 28. Also covered: the May 1 UK local elections and a parliamentary by-election.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

The Canadian federal election will be held on April 28, with first past the post used to elect the 343 MPs; 172 seats are required for a majority. The CBC Poll Tracker was updated Friday, and it gives the governing centre-left Liberals 43.7% of the vote (down 0.3 since my previous Canadian article on April 10), the Conservatives 37.7% (up 0.6), the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) 8.5% (steady), the separatist left-wing Quebec Bloc (BQ) 5.4% (steady) (23.7% in Quebec), the Greens 2.4% (steady) and the far-right People’s 1.7% (steady).

Seat point estimates are 197 Liberals (down four since my April 10 article), 122 Conservatives (up six), 18 BQ (down two), five NDP (steady) and one Green (steady). The Tracker now gives the Liberals an 88% chance of a majority if the election were held now, up from 87% previously. The Liberal lead had dropped to 5.3 points in Thursday’s Tracker update before recovering on Friday.

The Liberal vote is more efficiently distributed than the Conservative vote owing to Conservative vote wastage in very safe rural seats. At the 2021 election, the Liberals won 160 of the then 338 seats on 32.6%, with the Conservatives winning 119 seats on 33.7%.

There were two leaders’ debates: a French debate on Wednesday and an English debate on Thursday. Both debates had the leaders of the NDP and BQ as well as the Liberal and Conservative leaders. A snap Abacus Data poll, taken after the English debate, gave Liberal leader and PM Mark Carney a net +37 positive rating, while Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre had a net +23 positive rating. The NDP and BQ leaders did not impress voters.

We will need to wait three more days for voting intention polls to be fully taken after both debates. These debates were probably the last opportunity for a Conservative revival before the election. Unless the polls are significantly overstating the Liberals, the Liberals should win.

In an early April YouGov Canadian poll, by 64-25, respondents said the US was unfriendly or an enemy (50-33 in February). By 84-11, they opposed Canada becoming part of the US. If they had been able to vote in the 2024 US presidential election, Kamala Harris would have defeated Donald Trump by 57-18 among Canadians.

UK local elections and parliamentary by-election

UK local government elections will be held on May 1. These are held every May, but on a four-year cycle, so most seats up at these elections last faced election in 2021. The BBC calculates a Projected National Share (PNS) for each year’s elections, which allows results for a particular election to be compared to the previous year’s election, and also to the election four years ago. Only English councils are included in this year’s elections.

In 2021, the last time these seats were contested, Boris Johnson was popular, and the Conservatives won the PNS by 36-29 over Labour with 17% for the Liberal Democrats. In the 2024 local elections, held two months before the general election where Labour won a landslide, Labour won the PNS by 34-25 over the Conservatives, with 17% for the Lib Dems and 12% for the Greens. Usually PNS only gives vote shares for Labour, the Conservatives and Lib Dems, but the far-right Reform should be included this year.

The Election Maps UK national poll aggregate gives Labour 24.4% of the vote, Reform 23.9%, the Conservatives 22.5%, the Lib Dems 13.6% and the Greens 9.0%. If these vote shares are reflected at the local elections, Reform will make massive gains at the expense of the Conservatives, with Labour also slumping. Polls conducted in April give Labour leader and PM Keir Starmer a net approval below -30.

There will also be a parliamentary by-election on May 1 for the Labour-held Runcorn and Helsby. Labour MP Mike Amesbury resigned in March after being sentenced for assault. At the 2024 election, Labour defeated Reform in this seat by 52.9-18.1 with 16.0% for the Conservatives, 6.4% for the Greens and 5.1% for the Lib Dems. Two seat polls conducted in March gave Reform 3-5 point leads over Labour.

Page 1 of 15
1 2 … 15