Category: British politics

Brazilian presidential first round election live

It’s unlikely either Lula or Flavio Bolsonaro will win a majority in today’s Brazilian presidential election, so the runoff on October 25 will probably be needed. Runoff polls slightly favour Bolsonaro.

Live Commentary

9:31am Tuesday In elections to the legislature, Bolsonaro’s Liberals won 121 of the 513 seats in the Chamber of Deputies (up 22 since 2022), while the left-wing coalition won 88 seats (up 11). Other parties winning seats appear to be centrist to right-wing. In the Senate, the Liberals won 19 of the 54 seats up for election (up 14), with the left holding its six seats. The Liberals have a total of 29 of the 81 seats, to nine for the left.

1:28pm (Two paragraph entry) With all first round votes counted, Bolsonaro defeated Lula by 47.0-45.2, a 1.9-point margin. Of the remaining votes, 5.1% were for centrist candidates and 2.2% for another right-wing candidate. Lula won’t win the October 25 runoff unless he gains votes directly from Bolsonaro.

Most polls understated F. Bolsonaro, but not as badly as they understated J. Bolsonaro in 2022. The most accurate first round poll (Futura) gave Bolsonaro a two-point lead. That poll gives him a 2.9-point lead in the runoff.

10:53am There has been a clear trend to Lula in late counting, with Bolsonaro’s lead down to 47.6-44.5 with 95% in.

10:13am With 85% counted, F. Bolsonaro leads Lula by 48.5-43.5. In 2022, Lula won the first round over J. Bolsonaro by 48.4-43.2.

9:45am With 65% counted, Bolsonaro falls below 50%, but leads Lula by 49.6-42.3. Counting has stalled for a while.

9:14am With 47% counted, Bolsonaro leads Lula by 50.2-41.6. Bolsonaro probably won’t get a first round majority, but it looks as if he’ll win the first round and be the heavy favourite in the October 25 runoff.

8:40am With 31% counted, Bolsonaro leads Lula by 50.7-41.1. While there remains a small swing to Lula in the federal district, there’s a big swing to Bolsonaro in Tocantins. With 84% counted there, he leads by 50.7-43.1. In 2022, Lula beat J. Bolsonaro in Tocantins by 50.4-44.0 in the first round.

8:05am With 12% counted, Bolsonaro leads by 51.1-40.7. The federal district is the most complete with 70% counted. If current figures there are accurate, Lula will have a small swing to him there compared with the first round result in 2022.

7:35am With 2% counted, Bolsonaro leads Lula by 49.7-41.8.

6:59am Monday The Guardian has live results. In 2022, initial results favoured Bolsonaro more than the final figures.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Polls close at 7am AEDT Monday (note, not AEST anymore) for the first round of Brazil’s presidential election. Brazil uses staggered polling hours, where polls in a trailing time zone open and close an hour before those in a leading time zone. This means all polls will close at the same time.

Unless one candidate wins more than 50% of the vote today, a runoff between the top two will occur on October 25. The two main candidates are Workers Party incumbent Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former populist right president Jair Bolsonaro. At the 2022 presidential election, Lula defeated Jair Bolsonaro in the runoff by 50.9-49.1, ending Bolsonaro’s presidency after one term. Polls had understated Bolsonaro at that election.

Brazilian polls include undecided, so both Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro are doing better than their current vote shares indicate, with Lula usually ahead in first round polls. The other four listed candidates are in the single digits. With undecided removed, I expect the first round winner (Lula or Bolsonaro) to get at least mid-40s, not far from a majority.

In 12 polls of the likely runoff by different pollsters taken since September 24, Bolsonaro has an average lead of 0.5 points, with a range from a four-point Lula lead to a 5.5-point Bolsonaro lead. Bolsonaro has gained a lead for the runoff since I last wrote about Brazil two weeks ago.

Federal elections to the legislature will also be held today. In the Senate, 54 of the 81 seats will be up for election with two senators elected for each of Brazil’s 27 states using first past the post; the other 27 senators were elected in 2022. All 513 seats in the Chamber of Deputies will be elected by proportional representation using multi-member electorates based on the states.

US and NZ elections updates

US midterm elections occur on November 3. I wrote for The Conversation on September 25 that Donald Trump’s US net approval was at a record low -23.0 in Nate Silver’s aggregate (it’s now -23.5). In Silver’s forecast model, Democrats now lead Republicans by 9.6 points on the generic ballot (9.1 points on September 25). They have a 73% chance to gain control of the Senate and a 93% chance to gain control of the House of Representatives (previously 69% and 91% respectively).

The New Zealand election is on November 7. I wrote for the NZ edition of The Conversation last Tuesday that the right-wing parties had a lead over the left-wing parties, with the centrist Opportunity a reasonable chance to gain the balance of power. The Greens surged four points to a record high 16% in a late September Verian poll.

Canadian Quebec provincial election on Tuesday AEDT

Results of the Canadian Quebec provincial election will come out on Tuesday AEDT. The 127 seats are elected by FPTP. At the 2022 Quebec election, the conservative nationalist CAQ won 90 of the 125 seats on 41.0% of the vote, the centre-left Liberals 21 on 14.4%, the left-wing separatist Quebec Solidaire (QS) 11 on 15.4%, the separatist Quebec Party (PQ) three on 14.6% and the Conservatives zero on 12.9%.

Analyst Éric Grenier says the polls give the PQ 30.0% of the vote, the Liberals 23.5%, the Conservatives 19.4%, the CAQ 15.0% and QS 10.8%. Seat projections give the PQ a point estimate of 68 seats, the Liberals 36, the Conservatives 16, QS seven and the CAQ zero. If this occurs, the CAQ would be wiped out after winning a big majority in 2022, while the PQ would win a majority from just three seats.

UK by-election in Starmer’s former seat on Thursday

Former UK Labour PM Keir Starmer resigned as Member for Holborn and St Pancras in early September. The by-election for this seat will occur on Thursday. At the July 2024 UK general election, Starmer won 48.9% in this seat, a left-wing independent 18.9%, the Greens 10.4%, the Conservatives 7.2%, the populist right Reform 6.1% and the Liberal Democrats 5.8%. A total of 15 candidates are contesting the by-election, including Greens leader Zack Polanski.

German Saxony-Anhalt state election live

The populist right AfD has a realistic chance to win its first ever parliamentary majority at a German state election with just over 40% of votes in polls.

Live Commentary

9:05am Tuesday The UK parliamentary by-election for Holborn and St Pancras will be held on October 8.

12:08pm Turnout for this election was an all-time high of 77.8% (up 17.5% since 2021).

11:19am (Three paragraph entry) With all votes counted, the AfD has won 43.8% of the vote (up 23.0% since 2021), the CDU 17.2% (down 19.9%), the SPD 9.3% (up 0.9%), the Greens 8.9% (up 3.0%), the Left 8.6% (down 2.4%), the BSW 5.3% (new) and the FDP 2.6% (down 3.8%).

Owing to the removal of the extra 14 seats from 2021, seat changes will sum to -14. The AfD won 39 of the 83 seats, three short of a majority (up 16), the CDU 15 (down 25), the SPD eight (down one), the Greens eight (up two), the Left eight (down four), the BSW five (new) and the FDP zero (down seven). To keep the AfD from government will require an alliance of all five non-AfD parliamentary parties.

The AfD did slightly better than polls expected, with the CDU doing much worse. The Greens and BSW also overperformed, with the Left underperforming. The AfD had its highest vote share at a state election and a massive swing to it. In a little good news for the overall German left, the combined vote share for the SPD, Greens and Left was 26.8% (up 1.5%).

10:11am While overall seat numbers are proportional to vote share for parties that pass the 5% threshold, Saxony-Anhalt has 41 single-member seats elected by FPTP. In 2021, the CDU won 40 of these seats to one for the AfD. At this election, the AfD is winning 38 with three for the Left party. In 2021, 14 extra seats were added owing to the overhang caused by the CDU’s dominance of the single-member seats to maintain overall proportionality, but no extra seats will be needed this time, with the minimum 83 total seats elected.

9:42am With 99.6% counted, the BSW is up to 5.3%, ensuring they will win seats and deny the AfD a majority. The AfD has dropped back to 43.9%.

7:17am With 95.1% counted, the BSW remains at 5.2%, above the 5% threshold.

6:53am Monday (two paragraph entry) With 92.3% counted, the AfD has won 45.4% of the votes, but not a majority of seats as six parties cleared the 5% threshold. Current vote shares are 45.4% AfD, 16.5% CDU, 8.9% SPD, 8.8% Greens, 8.3% Left and 5.2% BSW, with the FDP well below the 5% threshold on 2.5%.

Current seats are 39 of 83 for the AfD, below the 42 needed for a majority, 16 CDU, eight SPD, eight Greens, eight Left and four BSW. We’ll need to wait for final results to confirm whether the BSW clears the 5% threshold (they’re at 5.2% currently).

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Polls close at 2am AEST Monday for today’s German Saxony-Anhalt state election. I will report results after I wake up, which should be before 7am.

This election will be held using statewide proportional representation with a 5% threshold to elect at least 83 MPs. Polls have the populist right AfD surging into the low 40s, far ahead of the conservative governing CDU who are in the low 20s. The Left party is in the low double digits and the centre-left SPD in the high single digits.

Three other parties are at or just below the 5% threshold: the Greens, pro-business FDP and economically left but socially right BSW. The Greens are at 5-6%, BSW at 3-4% and FDP at 3%, so the Greens are more likely than not to clear the threshold. If only the AfD, CDU, Left and SPD clear the threshold, the AfD would have a reasonable chance to win its first ever parliamentary majority in a state election.

At the 2021 Saxony-Anhalt election, the CDU won 40 of the 97 seats on 37.1% of the votes, the AfD 23 on 20.8%, the Left 12 on 11.0%, the SPD nine on 8.4%, the FDP seven on 6.4% and the Greens six on 5.9%. Polls conducted before that election had given the CDU 1-7 point leads over the AfD, much lower than the CDU’s actual 16.3-point margin.

The poll error in 2021 may raise expectations that the AfD will once again underperform their polls. However, it should not be assumed that poll errors will behave the same way from one election to the next. For example, polls at the 2025 Australian federal election understated Labor after overstating them in 2022 and 2019.

In German federal polls, the AfD has taken the lead from the CDU/CSU. At the February 2025 federal election, the CDU/CSU won 28.5% of the vote, the AfD 20.8%, the SPD 16.4%, the Greens 11.6% and the Left 8.8%. A coalition of the CDU/CSU and SPD was formed after that election.

Current polls have the AfD rising into the high 20s and the CDU/CSU dropping to the low 20s. There’s been little improvement in the vote share for the combined left (SPD, Greens and Left), with these parties at 40% or below in recent polls (36.8% at the last election).

There are two German state elections on September 20: Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. In Berlin, polls have the combined left-wing parties just below 50%, so the left should win that election. In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the AfD has surged ahead of the SPD after the SPD won the 2021 election by 39.6-16.7 over the AfD. The AfD will probably win the most seats, but be short of a majority.

Swedish election next Sunday

Sweden uses national PR with a 4% threshold to elect its 349 MPs. At the 2022 Swedish election, the conservative Moderates formed a government that was supported by the populist right Sweden Democrats. Polls for next Sunday’s election have the Red-Green bloc of four parties leading the right-wing bloc of four parties by low to high single digit margins. One of the right-wing parties, the Liberals, is consistently polling below the 4% threshold. If they miss the threshold, it will assist the left.

UK by-election for Starmer’s former seat coming soon

Former UK Labour PM Keir Starmer resigned as Member for Holborn and St Pancras last week. A date for the by-election has not yet been set, but it will probably occur in the next month. At the July 2024 UK general election, Starmer won 48.9% in this seat, a left-wing independent 18.9%, the Greens 10.4%, the Conservatives 7.2%, the populist right Reform 6.1% and the Liberal Democrats 5.8%. Greens leader Zack Polanski will contest.

UK Clacton parliamentary by-election live

Nigel Farage set for a massive win over Count Binface after resigning to recontest Clacton, but Labour takes the lead in national polls. Three Canadian federal by-elections will be held on August 31.

Live Commentary

3:37pm Wikipedia has the percentages. Farage wins by 63.3-26.9 over Binface. Rejoin EU was the next highest with 1.4%. That’s a 17.1-point swing to Farage from the 2024 election result. The Survation poll overstated Farage, but he still won very easily.

3:09pm Results are not fully declared yet, but Farage has received over 22,000 votes to Binface’s nearly 9,500.

2:37pm The Clacton result is expected to be declared in the next hour.

12:27pm Farage won’t be attending the declaration of the result ceremony.

11:59am Farage says “it’s a convincing, overwhelming win” for him at the by-election.

11:29am Official turnout for the by-election was 44.4%, down from 58.7% in 2024.

11am Farage’s scrutineers seem confident that he’ll win more votes than he did in 2024 despite lower overall turnout.

9:44am Friday The BBC’s live blog of the Clacton count is here. Provisional turnout was “around 43%”, down from 58.7% at the 2024 general election.

6:20pm ChrisC in comments says the 34 candidates for Clacton, who all need to be listed on one ballot paper, mean it will take a long time to get a result. The BBC is estimating a declaration time between 2pm and 4pm AEST Friday.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Polls close at 7am AEST Friday for a UK parliamentary by-election in Clacton. The populist right Reform’s leader, Nigel Farage, resigned to recontest on July 7. No other well-known party is contesting this by-election. A total of 34 candidates are standing, breaking the previous record of 26 for a by-election in 2008.

A mid to late July Survation poll, from a small sample of 265, gave Farage a massive 73-20 lead over joke candidate Count Binface with 7% for others. Although this sample size would give a 6% margin of error, Farage will still win easily. In 2024, Farage defeated the Conservatives in Clacton by 46.2-27.9 with 16.2% for Labour.

The Election Maps UK aggregate of national polls has Labour leading with 25.6% (up 2.2 points since my July 31 article), followed by Reform at 24.4% (down 0.1), the Conservatives 20.0% (down 0.2), the Greens 11.0% (down 0.7), the Liberal Democrats 10.6% (down 0.5) and the populist right Restore 3.5% (up 0.8). It’s the first time Labour has led in this aggregate since March 2025 and their biggest lead since January 2025.

Seat projections give Labour 213 of the 650 seats, with Reform on 152, the Conservatives 104, the Lib Dems 76, the Scottish National Party 42 and the Greens 20. A progressive majority could be formed by Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP.

US updates

I had an article for The Conversation on Wednesday on Donald Trump’s ratings, prospects at the November 3 midterm elections and the US economy. In Nate Silver’s midterm forecast model, Democrats have a 56% chance to gain control of the federal Senate and an 86% chance to gain control of the House.

Republicans currently lead in the House of Representatives by 219-212 over Democrats with four vacancies. In mid-June, two Democrats qualified for the California 14 runoff next Tuesday and in late July two Democrats qualified for the Georgia 13 runoff on August 25, so Republicans’ lead will soon shrink to 219-214.

No special election has been scheduled for the remaining two vacancies (one Republican, one Democratic), which both occurred in mid-April. These two seats are likely to remain vacant until the general election.

Three Canadian federal by-elections on August 31

Three Canadian federal by-elections will occur on August 31. As in the UK, Canada uses first-past-the-post for national elections. At the April 2025 Canadian election, the centre-left Liberals defeated the Conservatives in North Vancouver-Capilano by 59.8-33.7 with 4.2% for the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP). The Liberals defeated the Conservatives in Beaches-East York by 67.8-23.5 with 6.9% for the NDP.

The most interesting by=election is likely to be in the Quebec seat of Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, which the Conservatives won in 2025 with 34.1%. The separatist Quebec Bloc and the Liberals were nearly tied (31.2% Bloc, 31.1% Liberals). A mid-July poll gave the Bloc 30%, the Liberals 28% and the Conservatives 26%.

The Liberals currently hold 172 of the 343 House of Commons seats including four vacancies. Even if they lost all three August 31 by-elections, they would retain a bare majority. They should at least win the two seats they currently hold, increasing to 174 seats. Six further by-elections are likely in the near future, with two due to pending resignations of Liberal MPs. The Liberals have recently surged to lead the Conservatives by double-digit margins in Canadian federal polls.

Upcoming elections in Brazil and Israel

The first round of the Brazilian presidential election will be held on October 4, with a runoff on October 25 if nobody wins a first round majority. Incumbent Workers Party president Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former populist right president Jair Bolsonaro, are the two main candidates. Six polls conducted in August of a likely runoff range from a tie to a nine-point Lula lead.

Israel uses national proportional representation with a 3.25% threshold to elect a total of 120 MPs. Most polls ahead of the October 27 election have Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing governing coalition well below the 61 seats needed for a majority, with the big exception the government-aligned Filber poll. However, even if the governing coalition loses its majority, it may be difficult to form an alternative government.

UK Greater Manchester mayoral by-election live

Labour should hold this mayoralty, but how much will their vote drop from Burnham’s 63.4% in 2024? Also, Trump’s US ratings have dropped to a new low.

Live Commentary

12:27pm While Labour won easily, there was a large swing to the right since 2024. Adding the swings for Reform, Restore and the Conservatives has the combined right up 19.5%. Doing the same for Labour, the Greens and the Lib Dems has the combined left down 12.4%.

11:57am It took far too long to get a result in this election. In Australia, it would have been clear within a couple of hours of polls closing that Labour had won easily, based on just the primary votes. In this election, it took more than 24 hours after polls closed to get a result. I have no idea why Greater Manchester didn’t release primary vote results after it was known they would be distributing preferences between Labour and Reform.

Of the total 31.9% that were not Labour or Reform primary votes, 34.2% went to Labour in preferences, 26.6% to Reform and 39.2% exhausted. Pre-election polls understated Labour and overstated the Greens and Conservatives.

8:57am Finally a result! Labour wins the Greater Manchester mayoralty by 66.3-33.7 over Reform, from primary votes of 47.1% Labour (down 16.3 points since the 2024 election), 21.0% Reform (up 13.5), 12.2% Greens (up 5.3), 8.7% Restore (new), 7.7% Conservatives (down 2.7) and 2.8% Lib Dems (down 1.4).

6:56am Saturday Labour and Reform candidates have both qualified for the supplementary vote distribution of preferences, meaning they both had under 50%, and all other candidates have been eliminated. We still don’t know first round vote shares and won’t know anything more until we have a final result! It’s now nearly 10pm UK time; counting will continue until the bitter end.

11:53pm Turnout was 25.1%, down from 32.1% in 2024.

11 pm Four hours since counting began in Greater Manchester, there’s still no results from any of the ten boroughs. There doesn’t seem to even be any reporting of the likely result based on party sources, unlike for Westminster by-elections. This has been frustrating.

7:16pm Here’s the BBC’s live blog on the Greater Manchester count. It appears that counting didn’t start until 7pm AEST (10am UK time).

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Polls closed at 7am AEST today for the Greater Manchester mayoral by-election to replace Andy Burnham after his June 18 election to the UK parliament. It will be the biggest UK by-election. Counting will start at about 6pm AEST (9am UK time). There are ten districts within Greater Manchester where votes will be counted.

This by-election will be held using the “supplementary vote” system, where voters get two preferences. Mayoral elections prior to 2024 used this system, but the Conservatives regressed to first-past-the-post for 2024-26 mayoral elections. Labour reverted to the supplementary vote.

In the 2024 mayoral election, Burnham won 63.4%, with the Conservatives a very distant second with 10.4%, followed by 7.6% for an independent, 7.5% the populist right Reform, 6.9% Greens and 4.2% Liberal Democrats. Three early to mid-July polls had Labour at 38-39%, Reform 19-24%, the Greens 14-22%, the Conservatives 8-12%, Restore 7-9% (another populist right party) and the Lib Dems 3-8%. After preferences, Labour defeats Reform by between 62-38 and 66-34.

The Election Maps UK aggregate of national polls has Reform leading with 24.5% (down 1.5 points since my July 16 article before Burnham became PM), followed by Labour at 23.4% (up 2.6), the Conservatives 20.2% (up 0.4), the Greens 11.7% (down 1.3), the Lib Dems 11.1% (down one) and Restore 2.7% (down 0.5). Seat projections give Reform 217 of the 650 seats, with Labour on 135, the Conservatives 102 and the Lib Dems 76. Reform, the Conservatives and right-wing Northern Ireland parties would probably have enough for a majority.

There will be a by-election on August 13 in Clacton after Reform leader Nigel Farage resigned to recontest. No other well-known party will contest this by-election. It’s likely Farage’s main opponent will be joke candidate Count Binface. A total of 34 candidates are standing, breaking the previous record of 26 for a by-election in 2008. In 2024, Farage defeated the Conservatives in Clacton by 46.2-27.9 with 16.2% for Labour.

US: Trump’s ratings drop to new record low

With the resumption of the Iran war, Donald Trump’s ratings have dropped again. In Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, there had been a recovery in Trump’s net approval to -16.4 on July 14 from -20.2 in late May. But now his net approval has fallen to -20.6, a new record low, with 58.8% disapproving and 38.2% approving.

Democrats are winning the generic ballot by 48.3-41.9 over Republicans, a 6.4-point margin. From a peak lead of 7.1 points in late May, Democrats had dropped to a 5.9-point lead on July 22. The current lead should give Democrats control of the House of Representatives but not the Senate at midterm elections this November.

Troy Jackson was nominated by Democrats to replace Graham Platner as their Maine Senate candidate last Saturday after Platner withdrew owing to sexual assault allegations. On paper, Maine should be the easiest Senate gain for Democrats as Harris defeated Trump there by 6.9 points in 2024.

A jungle primary occurred Tuesday in Georgia’s 13th federal House seat. This special election occurred owing to the death of the incumbent Democrat in late April. At the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris defeated Trump in Georgia 13 by 70.6-28.5, a 42.1-point margin.

At a jungle primary all candidates run on the same ballot paper and the top two, regardless of party, go to a runoff if nobody gets over 50%. Two Democrats, Scott and Blair, advanced to the August 25 runoff with 46.0% and 37.4% respectively, and Democrats overall beat Republicans by 86.5-13.5, a 73.0-point margin. But turnout was pathetic, with just over 20,000 votes compared with over 360,000 in 2024.

Armenian election

Armenia elects its MPs using proportional representation with a 4% threshold for single parties and 8% for coalitions. At the June 7 election, the governing centrist Civil Contract won 64 of the 105 seats (down seven since 2021), the pro-Russia Strong Armenia 29 (new) and the pro-Russia Armenia Alliance 12 (down 17). Civil Contract has governed since 2018.

Andy Burnham to be next UK PM

This article also covers upcoming UK by-elections for Greater Manchester mayor and Clacton and polls for the US midterm elections.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

To qualify for a membership ballot, a candidate for UK Labour leadership required 20% of all Labour MPs (81 MPs in the current parliament). Andy Burnham is the only candidate to meet this threshold, winning endorsements from 379 of the 403 Labour MPs (94%). He will be elected unopposed to replace Keir Starmer as Labour leader and PM and will become PM on Monday.

The Election Maps UK aggregate of national polls has the populist right Reform leading with 26.0%, followed by Labour at 20.8%, the Conservatives 19.8%, the Greens 13.0%, the Liberal Democrats 12.1% and the populist right Restore 3.2%. There has been movement since late May against Reform and towards Labour and the Conservatives. Seat projections give Reform 250 of the 650 seats, but they would reach a majority with the support of the Conservatives (87 seats).

The Greater Manchester mayoral by-election to replace Burnham after his June 18 election to the UK parliament will occur on July 30. It will be the biggest UK by-election. This by-election will be held using the “supplementary vote” system, where voters get two preferences. Mayoral elections prior to 2024 used this system, but the Conservatives regressed to first-past-the-post for 2024-26 mayoral elections. Labour reverted to the supplementary vote.

In the 2024 mayoral election, Burnham won 63.4%, with the Conservatives a very distant second with 10.4%, followed by 7.6% for an independent, 7.5% Reform, 6.9% Greens and 4.2% Lib Dems. An early July Find Out Now poll gave Labour 38%, the Greens 22%, Reform 19%, Restore 9% and the Conservatives 8%. After preferences, Labour defeats the Greens 64-36 and Reform 66-34.

On July 7, Reform leader Nigel Farage announced he would resign as Member for Clacton and recontest Clacton at the ensuing August 13 by-election. No other well-known party will contest this by-election. It’s likely Farage’s main opponent will be joke candidate Count Binface. In 2024, Farage defeated the Conservatives in Clacton by 46.2-27.9 with 16.2% for Labour.

US updates

At November midterm elections, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 senators will be up for election. At the 2024 elections, Republicans won the House over Democrats by 220-215 and the Senate by 53-47.

Owing to Republican gerrymandering, Democrats need about a four-point popular vote margin to win the House. The two senators per state rule helps Republicans, and Democrats will need a double-digit popular vote margin to win the Senate on a uniform swing.

In Nate Silver’s aggregate of the generic ballot, Democrats lead Republicans by 48.0-41.9, a 6.1-point margin that is down from a peak of 7.1 points in late May. Donald Trump’s net approval has climbed from a low of -20.2 in late May to -17.0.

Democratic nominee Graham Platner withdrew from the Maine Senate contest last Friday after sexual assault allegations. Democrats have until July 27 to select a replacement candidate. Maine should be the easiest gain for Democrats as Kamala Harris defeated Trump there by 6.9 points in 2024.

Republicans currently control the House by 219-212 with four vacancies. Two Democrats qualified for the August 18 runoff in California 14 after a June 16 jungle primary. After the death of the Democratic incumbent in late April, a jungle primary for Georgia 13 will occur on July 28 with a runoff if needed on August 25. No special for the two other vacancies that occurred in April (one Democrat, one Republican) has yet been scheduled.

Other elections

The 56 Cypriot seats are elected by proportional representation in six multi-member electorates. At the May 24 election, the conservative DISY won 17 seats (steady since 2021), the communist AKEL 15 (steady), the populist right ELAM eight (up four) and the centrist DIKO eight (down one). The DISY retained government.

Malta has 13 five-member seats using proportional representation with preferences, with extra seats added to ensure overall proportionality. At the May 30 election, Labour defeated the conservative Nationalists by 42 seats to 37, winning its fourth successive term (44-35 to Labour in 2022). Malta retains a strong two-party system, with Labour defeating the Nationalists on vote shares by 51.8-44.7.

In final results of the June 7 Peruvian presidential runoff election, right-winger Fujimori defeated left-winger Sánchez by 50.13-49.87. This was Fujimori’s first win after three consecutive runoff losses.

UK Makerfield by-election live

Can Andy Burnham win today’s by-election to become an MP? Also: further results from Californian and other international elections.

Live Commentary

12:23pm Tuesday Starmer has announced he will resign as Labour leader and PM once a new leader is chosen. Streeting won’t contest the Labour leadership. Nominations for the leadership open on July 9 and close a week later. Unless someone other than Burnham can win 81 signatures from Labour MPs, Burnham will become the next UK PM on July 16 or 17.

9:55am With 99.9% counted in today’s Colombian presidential runoff election, populist right-winger Espriella defeated left-winger Cepeda by 49.65-48.70, with the remaining votes invalid. The margin of under 1% for Espriella was less than polls predicted (4-8 point Espriella margins in polls taken after the first round result).

9:39am Monday According to media reports, Starmer is expected to set out a timetable for his resignation tonight AEST. This will probably allow Burnham to become Labour leader and PM without a contest. Wes Streeting would also like to be Labour leader, but can he get the 81 required signatures?

4:22pm A by-election for Greater Manchester Mayor will be required by August 6 after the mayoralty became vacant following Burnham’s win.

4:07pm To challenge for the Labour leadership, a candidate needs at least 20% of Labour MPs (81 Labour MPs in the current UK parliament). They need MPs to sign a petition, so supporters of a challenger can’t remain anonymous. The incumbent leader doesn’t need to meet this threshold. A membership ballot is then held by post, with the winner decided by preferential voting.

12:15pm Burnham (Labour) CRUSHES Reform in Makerfield by 20.3 points, far more than what any poll said. He got 54.8% of the vote, a clear majority.

11:23am The Tory who won Aberdeen South was elected to the Scottish Parliament on May 7, and will need to resign his seat there. But there won’t be a by-election as he was a list MP. His seat will be taken by the next Tory on the list.

11:19am The BBC says Labour is unofficially claiming victory in Makerfield with 54% of the vote.

11:02am The SNP have easily HELD Arbroath and Broughty Ferry. Labour was a close second in 2024, but their vote has collapsed.

10:57am The Tories have GAINED Aberdeen South from the SNP. Unionist supporters consolidated behind the Tories, who were narrowly third in 2024, as Labour’s vote collapsed.

10:44am The BBC says senior Labour MP Louise Haigh has said she is “quietly confident” that Labour has won the Makerfield by-election.

10:33am The BBC says Labour people are more optimistic about Makerfield.

10:10am Turnout in Makerfield was 58.8%, up 6.3% from the turnout in this seat at the 2024 general election. It’s very unusual for turnout to be higher at a by-election than the general.

9:50am The BBC live blog says that, according to party sources, the Tories are likely to gain Aberdeen South from the SNP at one of today’s by-elections.

9:45am Friday While we wait for the UK by-election results, there’s been more counting in the California 14 special election that occurred Tuesday. With 95% counted, Dems Wahab (with 42.8%) and Hernandez (with 16.8%) advance to the August 18 runoff. Overall, Dems beat Reps by 51.1 points, a 15.7-point swing to the Dems on margin compared with the 2024 presidential results in that seat.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Polls close at 7am AEST Friday for a UK parliamentary by-election in Makerfield. This by-election was caused by the May 14 resignation of Labour MP Josh Simons to allow Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham to run. If Burnham becomes an MP, he is expected to challenge Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership.

At the 2024 general election, Labour defeated the populist right Reform in Makerfield by 45.2-31.8 with 10.9% for the Conservatives, 6.8% Liberal Democrats and 4.4% Greens. But at the May local elections, Reform won 50% in the eight wards within Makerfield.

Four recent Makerfield polls have Burnham leading Reform by 5-12 points, with Restore (another populist right party) on 5-8%. In the Election Maps UK aggregate of national polls, Reform leads with 27.4%, followed by Labour at 19.5%, the Conservatives 18.6%, the Greens 13.0%, the Lib Dems 12.3% and Restore 2.8%. The Greens have slid from a high of 15.9% in late March.

There will be two other parliamentary by-elections today, both caused by the resignation of Scottish National Party MPs after their elections to the Scottish parliament on May 7. In 2024, the SNP won Aberdeen South by 32.8-24.7 over Labour with 24.4% Conservatives, 6.9% Reform, 6.3% Lib Dems and 3.5% Greens. The SNP won Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by 35.3-33.4 over Labour with 15.5% Conservatives, 8.6% Reform and 5.1% Lib Dems.

US: further California results

In near-final results from the June 2 California jungle primary, Democrat Becerra (with 28.1%) and Republican Hilton (with 24.7%) advanced to the November gubernatorial election, with Democrat Steyer missing out with 22.8%. For Los Angeles mayor, incumbent Bass (with 34.3%) and left-wing challenger Raman (with 29.0%) advanced, with right-wing challenger Pratt missing with 25.5%.

At the concurrent federal special election for California 1, Republican Gallagher won 62.1%, avoiding a runoff by winning a majority. Republicans overall defeated Democrats by 27.5 points, a small swing to them from Donald Trump’s 24.9-point margin in this seat over Kamala Harris in 2024.

At Tuesday’s jungle primary federal special election for California 14, with 82% counted, Democrat Wahab has 42.4%, Democrat Hernandez 16.7% and Democrat Singh 13.2%. An August 18 runoff between Wahab and Hernandez will be needed. Overall, Democrats defeated Republicans by 75.1-24.3, a 50.8-point margin. This seat voted for Harris over Trump in 2024 by 65.8-30.4, a 35.4-point margin.

Denmark, Slovenia, Peru and Colombia electoral events

At the March 26 Danish election, the left-wing Red bloc of parties won 86 of the 179 seats and the right-wing Blue bloc 78 seats. With both blocs short of the 90 needed for a majority, the Moderates with 14 seats were the kingmakers. On June 2, a minority government was formed that included the Social Democrats (38 seats), the Green Left (20), the Moderates and the Social Liberals (ten). This was a hold for the Social Democrats.

At the March 22 Slovenian election, the liberal GS won 29 of the 90 seats, the right-wing SDS 28, the Christian NSi nine, the centre-left SD six, the conservative Democrats six, the left-wing Levica five and the anti-vaxxer Resni.ca five. A right-wing government led by the SDS was sworn in on May 22, with right-wing parties winning overall by 48 seats to 40. This was a gain for SDS from GS.

At the June 7 Peruvian presidential runoff election, right-winger Fujimori leads left-winger Sánchez by 50.1-49.9 with 99.4% counted. A Fujimori win would be her first win after three consecutive runoff losses. In the April first round, there was a fragmented field, with Fujimori getting 17.2% and Sánchez 12.04%, just ahead of the populist right Aliaga on 11.91%.

Legislative elections also occurred in April using proportional representation with a 5% threshold. Out of 60 senators, right-wing parties won by 30-23 over left-wing parties with seven for a centrist party. In the Chamber of Deputies, the right and left tied with 56 seats each out of 130 with 18 for centrists.

Incumbent left-wing Colombian President Petro was ineligible to run for a second term. At the May 31 first round election, the populist right Espriella won 43.7% and the left-wing Cepeda 40.9%. The runoff is on Sunday (Monday AEST). Polls have Espriella leading by 4-8 points.

US California jungle primary live

Two Democrats and one Republican seek to win two runoff spots in California’s gubernatorial primary. Also: can Andy Burnham win the UK Makerfield by-election to become an MP?

Live Commentary

1:48pm Tuesday As this thread has dropped to fourth on the main page, I’m going to discontinue coverage. I wrote about California and Makerfield for The Conversation today.

10:23am Monday After trailing the right-wing Pratt by 30.0-20.3 on election night in the race for the second runoff position for LA Mayor, the left-wing Raman now leads Pratt by 27.1-26.7 with 83% in. Given the way late counting is behaving, Raman is virtually certain to make the runoff. Incumbent Bass has secured the first runoff position with 34.7%.

10:51am Sunday With 78% now in for LA mayor, it’s 34.8% Bass, 27.3% Pratt and 26.2% Raman. Raman is likely to pass Pratt and win the second runoff spot.

12:22pm With 68% counted statewide in California, Dem Becerra has overtaken Rep Hilton for first place in the gubernatorial primary, by 26.8% to 26.4% with 21.1% for Dem Steyer and 10.8% for Rep Hilton. Hilton had led by over two points. Steyer still has a chance to make the runoff instead of Hilton.

For Los Angeles Mayor, with 71% in, incumbent Bass has 35.0%, right-wing challenger Pratt 28.2% and left-wing challenger Raman 24.9%. Raman has been winning late batches by enough that she’s now the favourite to finish second and make the runoff.

In the special election for California’s first, with 71% in, Rep Gallagher has 61.1% and will be elected without a runoff. Two Dems combined have 37.1%, with the overall 62.1-37.1 Rep margin (25.0 points) matching Trump’s 2024 margin. The Rep margin will probably drop as more votes are counted.

9:39am Saturday With 66% now in for California’s sixth, Dem Pan takes the lead for the second runoff place from Rep Stansfield. Vote shares are now 25.4% for Rep turned ind Kiley, 22.8% Pan and 21.2% Stansfield, with Dems having the remaining votes. Given the trend in late counting, Pan is now virtually certain to make the runoff, and will be heavily favoured to win the November general election in this seat that was gerrymandered to favour Dems.

9:56am Friday In the UK, a new Survation poll of Makerfield gives Andy Burnham a 49-39 lead over Reform, with 8% for Restore and 1-2% for the Greens, Lib Dems and Tories. Burnham’s lead is up from 43-40 in the mid-May Survation poll.

10:38am Thursday Dems could have a problem in California’s sixth, which was gerrymandered to favour Dems. With 48% in, Rep turned ind Kiley leads with 26.8%, followed by Rep Stansfield with 22.2%. The rest of the field is all Dems, but the leading Dem Pan has 21.2%, which means he will miss the runoff if the current result holds. The two counties that have the large majority of votes in this seat won’t report new votes until Saturday AEST.

3:18pm The California results now are unlikely to change until we get a large amount of late counting. So I’ll adjourn this live blog for now.

2:50pm Dems may miss an opportunity to gain the 40th federal district. Two Rep incumbents were drawn into this one district by gerrymandering. With 46% in, Rep Calvert has 35.5%, Rep Kim 20.4%. The remaining vote is nearly all Dems, but the lead Dem has 16.4%. On current counting, this will be a Rep vs Rep general election.

2:26pm For Los Angeles mayor, with 47% in, incumbent Karen Bass has 36.6%, right-wing challenger Spencer Pratt 30.0% and left-wing challenger Nithya Raman 20.3%. Even if Raman beats Pratt on late counting, Bass should win the general easily.

2:16pm For California governor, with nearly all counties reporting and 47% counted overall, it’s 26.7% Rep Hilton, 25.9% Dem Becerra, 19.7% Dem Steyer and 11.2% Rep Bianco. Steyer needs a big shift from late counting to make the top two, otherwise it will be Becerra vs Hilton in the general.

2:03pm In California 1, with 47% in (results from all counties in this district), Rep Gallagher has 61.3%. Reps overall lead Dems here by 62.5-36.6. On current counting, that’s a small swing to Reps from the 2024 pres election here, but Dems may perform better on post-election day counting.

1:31pm In the California 1 special, with 36% in, Rep Gallagher has 59.6% and is likely to win an overall majority avoiding a runoff in two months.

1:28pm Los Angeles county has reported. With 31% overall in, 27.0% Becerra, 25.6% Hilton, 20.2% Steyer and 9.8% Bianco. The top two qualify for the November general election.

1:23pm With 17% in, 28.9% Hilton, 25.0% Becerra, 18.2% Steyer and 11.7% for Rep Bianco. Nothing yet from Los Angeles.

1:14pm With an estimated 6% in for California governor, Rep Hilton leads with 27.7%, followed by Dems Becerra at 24.5% and Steyer at 17.3%. Urban centres are not yet included.

11:07am Early mail votes will be released soon after polls close in California at 1pm. Votes cast on election day will report later today, but that will only take the California count to about half complete. The New York Times suggests it will take ten days for the count to be 95% complete.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Polls close at 1pm AEST today for California’s jungle primary. At a jungle primary all candidates compete together, and the top two, regardless of party, advance to the November general election.

The main interest will be the California gubernatorial primary. In April it was plausible that Republicans Hilton and Bianco could both advance. But Democrats Becerra and Steyer have both surged in the polls. The Fiftyplusone aggregate has Hilton at 22.2%, Becerra 21.6%, Steyer 19.4% and Bianco well behind with 11.6%. At least one Democrat will advance, avoiding a strongly Democratic state having an all-Republican gubernatorial general election.

Other contests in California will use the same system. If two Democrats or two Republicans advance to the runoff in a competitive seat, that’s a disaster for the opposite party. The first round of a special election in California’s first federal seat will also be today, with a runoff on August 4 if nobody wins a majority, after the Republican incumbent died in January.

At the 2024 presidential election, California’s first voted for Donald Trump by 61.1-36.1 over Kamala Harris, a 24.9-point margin. This seat has been gerrymandered to favour Democrats, with the new lines giving Harris a 12.2-point margin, but these lines won’t apply to the special election. Two Republicans and two Democrats are standing, with Republican Gallagher likely to dominate the Republican vote and win an outright majority.

Republicans currently hold a 218-212 majority in the House of Representatives with four other vacancies. The jungle primary for Democrat Swalwell’s California 14 is on June 16 with a runoff if needed on August 18 after Swalwell resigned in April. A jungle primary will occur in Georgia 13 on July 28 with a runoff if needed on August 25 after the Democratic incumbent died in April.

I wrote for The Conversation on May 15 about two recent court decisions that will result in the federal House map for the 2026 midterm elections favouring Republicans. On April 30, the US Supreme Court allowed southern states to axe their Black seats and on May 8 the Virginia Supreme Court rejected a Democratic 10-1 gerrymander of Virginia’s 11 House seats, despite this gerrymander passing at a referendum.

As a result of these decisions, Democrats need to win the House popular vote by at least four points to have a good chance to win a House majority at November’s midterm elections. In Nate Silver’s aggregate of generic ballot polls, Democrats lead Republicans by 48.6-41.6, a 7.0-point margin. That’s the biggest lead for Democrats this cycle. Trump’s net approval in Silver’s aggregate has improved slightly to -19.0 from a low of -20.2 on May 19.

Democrats need four gains to control the Senate. On national polling, North Carolina and Maine should be gains while other Republican-held states need at least a double-digit Democratic margin to fall. Controversial Democratic and Republican nominees in Maine and Texas respectively could make Maine harder for Democrats and Texas easier.

UK: Can Andy Burnham win the Makerfield by-election?

After dire results for Labour at the May 7 Welsh and Scottish parliamentary elections and English local elections, there has been renewed pressure on PM Keir Starmer’s Labour leadership. Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is seen as the most likely challenger to Starmer, but he needs a seat in the House of Commons first.

On May 14, Labour MP Josh Simons resigned Makerfield to allow Burnham to become an MP if he wins the June 18 by-election. Starmer didn’t attempt to block Burnham, unlike for the February Gorton and Denton by-election. At the 2024 general election, Labour defeated the populist right Reform in Makerfield by 45.2-31.8 with 10.9% for the Conservatives, 6.8% Liberal Democrats and 4.4% Greens. But at the May local elections, Reform won 50% in the eight wards within Makerfield.

A small-sample Survation poll of Makerfield in mid-May gave Burnham a 43-40 lead over Reform, with 7% for Restore (another populist right party), 4% Lib Dems, 3% Greens and 2% Conservatives. In the Election Maps UK aggregate of national polls, Reform leads with 27.7%, followed by Labour at 19.3%, the Conservatives 18.1%, the Greens 14.0%, the Lib Dems 12.3% and Restore 2.9%. The Greens have slid from a high of 15.9% in early April.

Welsh and Scottish elections live

Welsh and Scottish parliamentary elections occur today, as well as English local elections. Plus further updates on gerrymandering in the US.

Live Commentary

10:48am Sunday With all 136 councils declared, the results are Reform 1,453 councillors (up 1,451), Labour 1,068 (down 1,496), Lib Dems 844 (up 155), Tories 801 (down 563) and Greens 587 (up 441). So Labour lost 58% of seats it was defending, a bit better than expected. Councils controlled are Labour 28 (down 38), Lib Dems 15 (up one), Reform 14 (up 14), Tories nine (down six), Greens five (up five) and Aspire one (up one – Tower Hamlets), with 64 with no overall control (up 23).

12:09pm These elections were about as bad as expected for Labour in England and Scotland, and worse than expected in Wales. The party that had dominated Wales since the first devolved election in 1999 won just nine out of 96 seats. The pre-election polls were good in Scotland, but overstated Labour and understated PC in Wales.

11:36am After results from 130 of 136 English councils, Reform won 1,443 councillors (up 1,441), Labour 959 (down 1,395), the Lib Dems 834 (up 151), the Tories 773 (down 555) and the Greens 511 (up 370). Councils controlled are Labour 27 (down 35), the Lib Dems 15 (up one), Reform 14 (up 14), the Tories nine (down six) and the Greens four (up four), with 61 with no overall control (up 22). I expect the remaining councils by Sunday morning AEST. While the Greens were runner-up to Reform with 18% according to the BBC’s PNS, their vote appears to have been too evenly dispersed to beat Labour, the Tories or the Lib Dems in number of councillors.

11:25am In English mayoral elections, the Greens have also gained Lewisham from Labour to add to their gain in Hackney. These are the first two directly elected Greens mayors. The other four mayoral elections have all been holds for the Tories, Labour, the Lib Dems and Aspire in Tower Hamlets.

10:59am With counting complete in Scotland, the SNP won 58 of the 129 seats (down six since 2021), Labour 17 (down four), Reform 17 (up 17), the Greens 15 (up six), the Tories 12 (down 19) and the Lib Dems ten (up six). Vote shares in the FPTP seats were 38.2% SNP (down 9.5%), 19.2% Labour (down 2.4%), 15.8% Reform (new), 11.8% Tories (down 10.1%), 11.4% Lib Dems (up 4.4%) and 2.3% Greens (up 1.0%). In the list seats, the SNP won 27.2% and the Greens 14.0%.

7am The BBC’s Projected National Share (PNS) for these council elections gives Reform 26% of the vote (down four since the 2025 council elections), the Greens 18% (up seven), the Tories 17% (up two), Labour 17% (down three) and the Lib Dems 16% (down one). In 2022, the last time most of these seats were elected, Labour won the PNS by 35-30 over the Tories with 19% for the Lib Dems. The PNS is a figure for what would have happened had council elections been held nationally, and can be compared from one year of elections to the next.

6:44am In Scotland, 115 of the 129 seats have been declared, including all 73 FPTP seats. In the FPTP seats, the SNP won 57 seats (down six on 2021), the Lib Dems seven (up three), the Tories four (down one), Labour three (up two) and the Greens two (up two). Reform didn’t win any FPTP seats. The SNP and Greens are already at a combined 69 seats (57 SNP and 12 Greens), above the 65 needed for a majority.

6:31am Saturday Counting in Wales is complete, with the BBC showing seat changes from 2021 using a redistribution (as there were 60 total seats in 2021 vs 96 now). The nationalist Plaid Cymru won 43 seats (up 20), Reform 34 (up 34), Labour nine (down 35), the Tories seven (down 22), the Greens two (up two) and the Lib Dems one (up one). PC is six seats short of a majority, with Labour their most plausible partner. Vote shares were 35.4% PC (up 14.7%), 29.3% Reform (up 28.2%), 11.1% Labour (down 25.1%), 10.7% Tories (down 14.3%), 6.7% Greens (up 2.4%) and 4.5% Lib Dems (up 0.1%).

11:15pm And that’s all from me until tomorrow morning.

11:14pm In Scotland, after seven of the 73 FPTP seats have declared, the SNP has won six and the Lib Dems one, a gain for the SNP at the Lib Dems’ expense. There are still no Welsh results, but the Labour Welsh First Minister is expected to lose her seat and Labour is expected to only win ten seats out of 96 (they won 30 out of 60 in 2021).

11:06pm In English councils after 63 of 136 results, Reform has won 561 councillors (up 559), the Lib Dems 336 (up 28), the Tories 305 (down 249), Labour 292 (down 380) and the Greens 106 (up 58). Councils controlled are Labour 13 (down 11), the Lib Dems eight (up one), the Tories six (down two) and Reform three (up three), with 33 NOC (up nine). Labour’s proportional seat losses have increased on counting tonight.

9:58pm The SNP have held Dundee City West by 49-25 over Labour with 13% for Reform. That’s a 12.5% drop in the SNP vote.

9:49pm The first Scottish result is in, with the Lib Dems retaining Orkney Islands by 70-16 over the SNP, an 8% swing to the Lib Dems and 13% against the SNP since 2021.

9:07pm There are no counts available yet, but the Greens have gained Hackney mayoralty from Labour. That’s a former Labour stronghold in London. Update: the Greens defeated Labour by 47.2-35.5 with 8.4% for the Tories and 5.3% for Reform.

8:34pm Counting in Wales and Scotland started at 6pm AEST, with first Scottish results expected at about 9pm.

8:25pm After 46 of 136 English councils, Reform have won 401 councillors (up 399), the Tories 256 (down 174), Labour 253 (down 260), the Lib Dems 251 (up 37) and the Greens 53 (up 28). Councils controlled are Labour ten (down eight), the Tories six (down one), the Lib Dems five (up one) and Reform two (up two), with 23 for NOC (up six).

4:50pm There’s going to be a lull in counting until tonight, when we’ll get Welsh and Scottish results and 96 further council results.

4:06pm The Tories have regained Westminster in London from Labour after losing it in 2022. In inner London councils, it’s just Tories vs Labour. The Tories won 32 of the 54 seats, a nine-seat gain.

3:51pm Reform takes its first council, gaining Newcastle-under-Lyme from the Tories. All 44 seats were up, with Reform winning 27 (up 27), the Tories 15 (down ten) and Labour two (down 17).

3:44pm (three paragraph entry) After 38 of 136 councils, Reform has 317 councillors (up 317), Labour 219 (down 240), the Lib Dems 236 (up 35), the Tories 190 (down 117) and the Greens 48 (up 26). Councils controlled are Labour ten (down seven), Lib Dems five (up one) and Tories three (steady), with No Overall Control (NOC) 20 (up six).

While Labour has lost over half the seats they held, they’re doing better so far than some projections that had them losing 70% of their current seats. Curtice said the Greens are getting about 18%, but this isn’t quite enough in FPTP to win large numbers of seats.

In 2022, Labour gained Wandsworth from the Tories, ending 44 years of Tory dominance in this London council. This election (an all-out election), the Tories regained seven seats, but didn’t quite win a majority, finishing with 29 of 58 seats, to 28 Labour and one independent.

2:21pm Curtice says Reform is averaging 40% where at least 60% voted for Brexit, but only 9% where fewer than 40% voted to Leave. In contrast, the Greens are at 26% in pro-Remain areas but 12% in pro-Leave areas.

1:35pm BBC election analyst John Curtice says in key wards, Reform have 30% of the vote, Labour 16%, the Greens 15% (up ten since 2022). The Tories are down 14% since 2022 and the Lib Dems down 5%.

1:31pm Wigan is a good example of the one-third up for election rule helping the former major parties retain control. Of the 25 seats up for election, Reform won 24 with Labour losing all 22 seats they were defending. But Labour retains control with 42 of the total 75 seats.

1:19pm After 26 of 136 councils, Reform has won 224 councillors (up 224), Labour 84 (down 162), the Lib Dems 68 (down three), the Tories 67 (down 65) and the Greens 34 (up 22). Councils controlled are Labour seven (down five), Lib Dems three (up one), Tories two (steady) and no overall control 14 (up four).

11:59am The Lib Dems have gained control of Stockport in Greater Manchester (previously no overall control). The damage to Labour and the Tories in councils controlled has been limited so far by only having one-third of councillors up at this election. London councils to come in later will have all-out elections.

11:19am After 11 of 136 councils declared, Reform has 93 councillors (up 93), the Tories 13 (down 20), Labour 12 (down 67), the Lib Dems 12 (down three) and the Greens six (up four). Councils controlled are Labour four (down three), the Tories one (steady) and no overall control six (up three). In councils in so far, only one-third of seats have been up for election, so Labour’s controls are from the two-thirds that are not up.

10:46am Reform has won 46 councillors (up 46), Labour six (down 37), the Lib Dems five (down two), the Greens four (up three) and the Tories two (down five).

10:04am Councillors won so far are Reform 12 (up 12 since 2022), Labour two (down 12), Lib Dems two (up one), Greens one (up one) and Tories zero (down two).

9:52am The two councils that have been called Labour holds are because only one-third of seats were up for election, and Labour held nearly all the seats not up for election.

9:45am Slow going so far, with only four ward results in. The BBC says we should get results from ten councils soon.

9:10am Friday The BBC’s live blog says counting in Wales and Scotland won’t begin until Friday UK time (tonight AEST).

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

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