Category: British politics

Live Commentary

12:27pm While Labour won easily, there was a large swing to the right since 2024. Adding the swings for Reform, Restore and the Conservatives has the combined right up 19.5%. Doing the same for Labour, the Greens and the Lib Dems has the combined left down 12.4%.

11:57am It took far too long to get a result in this election. In Australia, it would have been clear within a couple of hours of polls closing that Labour had won easily, based on just the primary votes. In this election, it took more than 24 hours after polls closed to get a result. I have no idea why Greater Manchester didn’t release primary vote results after it was known they would be distributing preferences between Labour and Reform.

Of the total 31.9% that were not Labour or Reform primary votes, 34.2% went to Labour in preferences, 26.6% to Reform and 39.2% exhausted. Pre-election polls understated Labour and overstated the Greens and Conservatives.

8:57am Finally a result! Labour wins the Greater Manchester mayoralty by 66.3-33.7 over Reform, from primary votes of 47.1% Labour (down 16.3 points since the 2024 election), 21.0% Reform (up 13.5), 12.2% Greens (up 5.3), 8.7% Restore (new), 7.7% Conservatives (down 2.7) and 2.8% Lib Dems (down 1.4).

6:56am Saturday Labour and Reform candidates have both qualified for the supplementary vote distribution of preferences, meaning they both had under 50%, and all other candidates have been eliminated. We still don’t know first round vote shares and won’t know anything more until we have a final result! It’s now nearly 10pm UK time; counting will continue until the bitter end.

11:53pm Turnout was 25.1%, down from 32.1% in 2024.

11 pm Four hours since counting began in Greater Manchester, there’s still no results from any of the ten boroughs. There doesn’t seem to even be any reporting of the likely result based on party sources, unlike for Westminster by-elections. This has been frustrating.

7:16pm Here’s the BBC’s live blog on the Greater Manchester count. It appears that counting didn’t start until 7pm AEST (10am UK time).

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Polls closed at 7am AEST today for the Greater Manchester mayoral by-election to replace Andy Burnham after his June 18 election to the UK parliament. It will be the biggest UK by-election. Counting will start at about 6pm AEST (9am UK time). There are ten districts within Greater Manchester where votes will be counted.

This by-election will be held using the “supplementary vote” system, where voters get two preferences. Mayoral elections prior to 2024 used this system, but the Conservatives regressed to first-past-the-post for 2024-26 mayoral elections. Labour reverted to the supplementary vote.

In the 2024 mayoral election, Burnham won 63.4%, with the Conservatives a very distant second with 10.4%, followed by 7.6% for an independent, 7.5% the populist right Reform, 6.9% Greens and 4.2% Liberal Democrats. Three early to mid-July polls had Labour at 38-39%, Reform 19-24%, the Greens 14-22%, the Conservatives 8-12%, Restore 7-9% (another populist right party) and the Lib Dems 3-8%. After preferences, Labour defeats Reform by between 62-38 and 66-34.

The Election Maps UK aggregate of national polls has Reform leading with 24.5% (down 1.5 points since my July 16 article before Burnham became PM), followed by Labour at 23.4% (up 2.6), the Conservatives 20.2% (up 0.4), the Greens 11.7% (down 1.3), the Lib Dems 11.1% (down one) and Restore 2.7% (down 0.5). Seat projections give Reform 217 of the 650 seats, with Labour on 135, the Conservatives 102 and the Lib Dems 76. Reform, the Conservatives and right-wing Northern Ireland parties would probably have enough for a majority.

There will be a by-election on August 13 in Clacton after Reform leader Nigel Farage resigned to recontest. No other well-known party will contest this by-election. It’s likely Farage’s main opponent will be joke candidate Count Binface. A total of 34 candidates are standing, breaking the previous record of 26 for a by-election in 2008. In 2024, Farage defeated the Conservatives in Clacton by 46.2-27.9 with 16.2% for Labour.

US: Trump’s ratings drop to new record low

With the resumption of the Iran war, Donald Trump’s ratings have dropped again. In Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, there had been a recovery in Trump’s net approval to -16.4 on July 14 from -20.2 in late May. But now his net approval has fallen to -20.6, a new record low, with 58.8% disapproving and 38.2% approving.

Democrats are winning the generic ballot by 48.3-41.9 over Republicans, a 6.4-point margin. From a peak lead of 7.1 points in late May, Democrats had dropped to a 5.9-point lead on July 22. The current lead should give Democrats control of the House of Representatives but not the Senate at midterm elections this November.

Troy Jackson was nominated by Democrats to replace Graham Platner as their Maine Senate candidate last Saturday after Platner withdrew owing to sexual assault allegations. On paper, Maine should be the easiest Senate gain for Democrats as Harris defeated Trump there by 6.9 points in 2024.

A jungle primary occurred Tuesday in Georgia’s 13^th federal House seat. This special election occurred owing to the death of the incumbent Democrat in late April. At the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris defeated Trump in Georgia 13 by 70.6-28.5, a 42.1-point margin.

At a jungle primary all candidates run on the same ballot paper and the top two, regardless of party, go to a runoff if nobody gets over 50%. Two Democrats, Scott and Blair, advanced to the August 25 runoff with 46.0% and 37.4% respectively, and Democrats overall beat Republicans by 86.5-13.5, a 73.0-point margin. But turnout was pathetic, with just over 20,000 votes compared with over 360,000 in 2024.

Armenian election

Armenia elects its MPs using proportional representation with a 4% threshold for single parties and 8% for coalitions. At the June 7 election, the governing centrist Civil Contract won 64 of the 105 seats (down seven since 2021), the pro-Russia Strong Armenia 29 (new) and the pro-Russia Armenia Alliance 12 (down 17). Civil Contract has governed since 2018.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

To qualify for a membership ballot, a candidate for UK Labour leadership required 20% of all Labour MPs (81 MPs in the current parliament). Andy Burnham is the only candidate to meet this threshold, winning endorsements from 379 of the 403 Labour MPs (94%). He will be elected unopposed to replace Keir Starmer as Labour leader and PM and will become PM on Monday.

The Election Maps UK aggregate of national polls has the populist right Reform leading with 26.0%, followed by Labour at 20.8%, the Conservatives 19.8%, the Greens 13.0%, the Liberal Democrats 12.1% and the populist right Restore 3.2%. There has been movement since late May against Reform and towards Labour and the Conservatives. Seat projections give Reform 250 of the 650 seats, but they would reach a majority with the support of the Conservatives (87 seats).

The Greater Manchester mayoral by-election to replace Burnham after his June 18 election to the UK parliament will occur on July 30. It will be the biggest UK by-election. This by-election will be held using the “supplementary vote” system, where voters get two preferences. Mayoral elections prior to 2024 used this system, but the Conservatives regressed to first-past-the-post for 2024-26 mayoral elections. Labour reverted to the supplementary vote.

In the 2024 mayoral election, Burnham won 63.4%, with the Conservatives a very distant second with 10.4%, followed by 7.6% for an independent, 7.5% Reform, 6.9% Greens and 4.2% Lib Dems. An early July Find Out Now poll gave Labour 38%, the Greens 22%, Reform 19%, Restore 9% and the Conservatives 8%. After preferences, Labour defeats the Greens 64-36 and Reform 66-34.

On July 7, Reform leader Nigel Farage announced he would resign as Member for Clacton and recontest Clacton at the ensuing August 13 by-election. No other well-known party will contest this by-election. It’s likely Farage’s main opponent will be joke candidate Count Binface. In 2024, Farage defeated the Conservatives in Clacton by 46.2-27.9 with 16.2% for Labour.

US updates

At November midterm elections, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 senators will be up for election. At the 2024 elections, Republicans won the House over Democrats by 220-215 and the Senate by 53-47.

Owing to Republican gerrymandering, Democrats need about a four-point popular vote margin to win the House. The two senators per state rule helps Republicans, and Democrats will need a double-digit popular vote margin to win the Senate on a uniform swing.

In Nate Silver’s aggregate of the generic ballot, Democrats lead Republicans by 48.0-41.9, a 6.1-point margin that is down from a peak of 7.1 points in late May. Donald Trump’s net approval has climbed from a low of -20.2 in late May to -17.0.

Democratic nominee Graham Platner withdrew from the Maine Senate contest last Friday after sexual assault allegations. Democrats have until July 27 to select a replacement candidate. Maine should be the easiest gain for Democrats as Kamala Harris defeated Trump there by 6.9 points in 2024.

Republicans currently control the House by 219-212 with four vacancies. Two Democrats qualified for the August 18 runoff in California 14 after a June 16 jungle primary. After the death of the Democratic incumbent in late April, a jungle primary for Georgia 13 will occur on July 28 with a runoff if needed on August 25. No special for the two other vacancies that occurred in April (one Democrat, one Republican) has yet been scheduled.

Other elections

The 56 Cypriot seats are elected by proportional representation in six multi-member electorates. At the May 24 election, the conservative DISY won 17 seats (steady since 2021), the communist AKEL 15 (steady), the populist right ELAM eight (up four) and the centrist DIKO eight (down one). The DISY retained government.

Malta has 13 five-member seats using proportional representation with preferences, with extra seats added to ensure overall proportionality. At the May 30 election, Labour defeated the conservative Nationalists by 42 seats to 37, winning its fourth successive term (44-35 to Labour in 2022). Malta retains a strong two-party system, with Labour defeating the Nationalists on vote shares by 51.8-44.7.

In final results of the June 7 Peruvian presidential runoff election, right-winger Fujimori defeated left-winger Sánchez by 50.13-49.87. This was Fujimori’s first win after three consecutive runoff losses.

Live Commentary

12:23pm Tuesday Starmer has announced he will resign as Labour leader and PM once a new leader is chosen. Streeting won’t contest the Labour leadership. Nominations for the leadership open on July 9 and close a week later. Unless someone other than Burnham can win 81 signatures from Labour MPs, Burnham will become the next UK PM on July 16 or 17.

9:55am With 99.9% counted in today’s Colombian presidential runoff election, populist right-winger Espriella defeated left-winger Cepeda by 49.65-48.70, with the remaining votes invalid. The margin of under 1% for Espriella was less than polls predicted (4-8 point Espriella margins in polls taken after the first round result).

9:39am Monday According to media reports, Starmer is expected to set out a timetable for his resignation tonight AEST. This will probably allow Burnham to become Labour leader and PM without a contest. Wes Streeting would also like to be Labour leader, but can he get the 81 required signatures?

4:22pm A by-election for Greater Manchester Mayor will be required by August 6 after the mayoralty became vacant following Burnham’s win.

4:07pm To challenge for the Labour leadership, a candidate needs at least 20% of Labour MPs (81 Labour MPs in the current UK parliament). They need MPs to sign a petition, so supporters of a challenger can’t remain anonymous. The incumbent leader doesn’t need to meet this threshold. A membership ballot is then held by post, with the winner decided by preferential voting.

12:15pm Burnham (Labour) CRUSHES Reform in Makerfield by 20.3 points, far more than what any poll said. He got 54.8% of the vote, a clear majority.

✅ BURNHAM IN

Makerfield by-election result:

LAB: 54.8% (+9.6)
REF: 34.5% (+2.7)
RST: 6.8% (+6.8)
CON: 2.2% (-8.7)
GRN: 0.7% (-3.7)
LDEM: 0.4% (-6.4)

— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) June 19, 2026

11:23am The Tory who won Aberdeen South was elected to the Scottish Parliament on May 7, and will need to resign his seat there. But there won’t be a by-election as he was a list MP. His seat will be taken by the next Tory on the list.

11:19am The BBC says Labour is unofficially claiming victory in Makerfield with 54% of the vote.

11:02am The SNP have easily HELD Arbroath and Broughty Ferry. Labour was a close second in 2024, but their vote has collapsed.

✅ SNP HOLD

Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-election result:

SNP: 41.2% (+5.9)
CON: 19.0% (+3.5)
REF: 18.3% (+9.6)
LAB: 15.4% (-18.0)
LDEM: 6.1% (+1.0)

— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) June 19, 2026

10:57am The Tories have GAINED Aberdeen South from the SNP. Unionist supporters consolidated behind the Tories, who were narrowly third in 2024, as Labour’s vote collapsed.

❗ Conservative GAIN from SNP

Aberdeen South by-election result:

CON: 49.5% (+25.1)
SNP: 28.6% (-4.2)
REF: 8.6% (+1.7)
LAB: 5.4% (-19.4)
LDEM: 4.4% (-1.9)
GRN: 3.4% (-0.1)

— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) June 19, 2026

10:44am The BBC says senior Labour MP Louise Haigh has said she is “quietly confident” that Labour has won the Makerfield by-election.

10:33am The BBC says Labour people are more optimistic about Makerfield.

10:10am Turnout in Makerfield was 58.8%, up 6.3% from the turnout in this seat at the 2024 general election. It’s very unusual for turnout to be higher at a by-election than the general.

9:50am The BBC live blog says that, according to party sources, the Tories are likely to gain Aberdeen South from the SNP at one of today’s by-elections.

9:45am Friday While we wait for the UK by-election results, there’s been more counting in the California 14 special election that occurred Tuesday. With 95% counted, Dems Wahab (with 42.8%) and Hernandez (with 16.8%) advance to the August 18 runoff. Overall, Dems beat Reps by 51.1 points, a 15.7-point swing to the Dems on margin compared with the 2024 presidential results in that seat.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Polls close at 7am AEST Friday for a UK parliamentary by-election in Makerfield. This by-election was caused by the May 14 resignation of Labour MP Josh Simons to allow Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham to run. If Burnham becomes an MP, he is expected to challenge Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership.

At the 2024 general election, Labour defeated the populist right Reform in Makerfield by 45.2-31.8 with 10.9% for the Conservatives, 6.8% Liberal Democrats and 4.4% Greens. But at the May local elections, Reform won 50% in the eight wards within Makerfield.

Four recent Makerfield polls have Burnham leading Reform by 5-12 points, with Restore (another populist right party) on 5-8%. In the Election Maps UK aggregate of national polls, Reform leads with 27.4%, followed by Labour at 19.5%, the Conservatives 18.6%, the Greens 13.0%, the Lib Dems 12.3% and Restore 2.8%. The Greens have slid from a high of 15.9% in late March.

There will be two other parliamentary by-elections today, both caused by the resignation of Scottish National Party MPs after their elections to the Scottish parliament on May 7. In 2024, the SNP won Aberdeen South by 32.8-24.7 over Labour with 24.4% Conservatives, 6.9% Reform, 6.3% Lib Dems and 3.5% Greens. The SNP won Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by 35.3-33.4 over Labour with 15.5% Conservatives, 8.6% Reform and 5.1% Lib Dems.

US: further California results

In near-final results from the June 2 California jungle primary, Democrat Becerra (with 28.1%) and Republican Hilton (with 24.7%) advanced to the November gubernatorial election, with Democrat Steyer missing out with 22.8%. For Los Angeles mayor, incumbent Bass (with 34.3%) and left-wing challenger Raman (with 29.0%) advanced, with right-wing challenger Pratt missing with 25.5%.

At the concurrent federal special election for California 1, Republican Gallagher won 62.1%, avoiding a runoff by winning a majority. Republicans overall defeated Democrats by 27.5 points, a small swing to them from Donald Trump’s 24.9-point margin in this seat over Kamala Harris in 2024.

At Tuesday’s jungle primary federal special election for California 14, with 82% counted, Democrat Wahab has 42.4%, Democrat Hernandez 16.7% and Democrat Singh 13.2%. An August 18 runoff between Wahab and Hernandez will be needed. Overall, Democrats defeated Republicans by 75.1-24.3, a 50.8-point margin. This seat voted for Harris over Trump in 2024 by 65.8-30.4, a 35.4-point margin.

Denmark, Slovenia, Peru and Colombia electoral events

At the March 26 Danish election, the left-wing Red bloc of parties won 86 of the 179 seats and the right-wing Blue bloc 78 seats. With both blocs short of the 90 needed for a majority, the Moderates with 14 seats were the kingmakers. On June 2, a minority government was formed that included the Social Democrats (38 seats), the Green Left (20), the Moderates and the Social Liberals (ten). This was a hold for the Social Democrats.

At the March 22 Slovenian election, the liberal GS won 29 of the 90 seats, the right-wing SDS 28, the Christian NSi nine, the centre-left SD six, the conservative Democrats six, the left-wing Levica five and the anti-vaxxer Resni.ca five. A right-wing government led by the SDS was sworn in on May 22, with right-wing parties winning overall by 48 seats to 40. This was a gain for SDS from GS.

At the June 7 Peruvian presidential runoff election, right-winger Fujimori leads left-winger Sánchez by 50.1-49.9 with 99.4% counted. A Fujimori win would be her first win after three consecutive runoff losses. In the April first round, there was a fragmented field, with Fujimori getting 17.2% and Sánchez 12.04%, just ahead of the populist right Aliaga on 11.91%.

Legislative elections also occurred in April using proportional representation with a 5% threshold. Out of 60 senators, right-wing parties won by 30-23 over left-wing parties with seven for a centrist party. In the Chamber of Deputies, the right and left tied with 56 seats each out of 130 with 18 for centrists.

Incumbent left-wing Colombian President Petro was ineligible to run for a second term. At the May 31 first round election, the populist right Espriella won 43.7% and the left-wing Cepeda 40.9%. The runoff is on Sunday (Monday AEST). Polls have Espriella leading by 4-8 points.

Live Commentary

1:48pm Tuesday As this thread has dropped to fourth on the main page, I’m going to discontinue coverage. I wrote about California and Makerfield for The Conversation today.

10:23am Monday After trailing the right-wing Pratt by 30.0-20.3 on election night in the race for the second runoff position for LA Mayor, the left-wing Raman now leads Pratt by 27.1-26.7 with 83% in. Given the way late counting is behaving, Raman is virtually certain to make the runoff. Incumbent Bass has secured the first runoff position with 34.7%.

10:51am Sunday With 78% now in for LA mayor, it’s 34.8% Bass, 27.3% Pratt and 26.2% Raman. Raman is likely to pass Pratt and win the second runoff spot.

12:22pm With 68% counted statewide in California, Dem Becerra has overtaken Rep Hilton for first place in the gubernatorial primary, by 26.8% to 26.4% with 21.1% for Dem Steyer and 10.8% for Rep Hilton. Hilton had led by over two points. Steyer still has a chance to make the runoff instead of Hilton.

For Los Angeles Mayor, with 71% in, incumbent Bass has 35.0%, right-wing challenger Pratt 28.2% and left-wing challenger Raman 24.9%. Raman has been winning late batches by enough that she’s now the favourite to finish second and make the runoff.

In the special election for California’s first, with 71% in, Rep Gallagher has 61.1% and will be elected without a runoff. Two Dems combined have 37.1%, with the overall 62.1-37.1 Rep margin (25.0 points) matching Trump’s 2024 margin. The Rep margin will probably drop as more votes are counted.

9:39am Saturday With 66% now in for California’s sixth, Dem Pan takes the lead for the second runoff place from Rep Stansfield. Vote shares are now 25.4% for Rep turned ind Kiley, 22.8% Pan and 21.2% Stansfield, with Dems having the remaining votes. Given the trend in late counting, Pan is now virtually certain to make the runoff, and will be heavily favoured to win the November general election in this seat that was gerrymandered to favour Dems.

9:56am Friday In the UK, a new Survation poll of Makerfield gives Andy Burnham a 49-39 lead over Reform, with 8% for Restore and 1-2% for the Greens, Lib Dems and Tories. Burnham’s lead is up from 43-40 in the mid-May Survation poll.

10:38am Thursday Dems could have a problem in California’s sixth, which was gerrymandered to favour Dems. With 48% in, Rep turned ind Kiley leads with 26.8%, followed by Rep Stansfield with 22.2%. The rest of the field is all Dems, but the leading Dem Pan has 21.2%, which means he will miss the runoff if the current result holds. The two counties that have the large majority of votes in this seat won’t report new votes until Saturday AEST.

3:18pm The California results now are unlikely to change until we get a large amount of late counting. So I’ll adjourn this live blog for now.

2:50pm Dems may miss an opportunity to gain the 40th federal district. Two Rep incumbents were drawn into this one district by gerrymandering. With 46% in, Rep Calvert has 35.5%, Rep Kim 20.4%. The remaining vote is nearly all Dems, but the lead Dem has 16.4%. On current counting, this will be a Rep vs Rep general election.

2:26pm For Los Angeles mayor, with 47% in, incumbent Karen Bass has 36.6%, right-wing challenger Spencer Pratt 30.0% and left-wing challenger Nithya Raman 20.3%. Even if Raman beats Pratt on late counting, Bass should win the general easily.

2:16pm For California governor, with nearly all counties reporting and 47% counted overall, it’s 26.7% Rep Hilton, 25.9% Dem Becerra, 19.7% Dem Steyer and 11.2% Rep Bianco. Steyer needs a big shift from late counting to make the top two, otherwise it will be Becerra vs Hilton in the general.

2:03pm In California 1, with 47% in (results from all counties in this district), Rep Gallagher has 61.3%. Reps overall lead Dems here by 62.5-36.6. On current counting, that’s a small swing to Reps from the 2024 pres election here, but Dems may perform better on post-election day counting.

1:31pm In the California 1 special, with 36% in, Rep Gallagher has 59.6% and is likely to win an overall majority avoiding a runoff in two months.

1:28pm Los Angeles county has reported. With 31% overall in, 27.0% Becerra, 25.6% Hilton, 20.2% Steyer and 9.8% Bianco. The top two qualify for the November general election.

1:23pm With 17% in, 28.9% Hilton, 25.0% Becerra, 18.2% Steyer and 11.7% for Rep Bianco. Nothing yet from Los Angeles.

1:14pm With an estimated 6% in for California governor, Rep Hilton leads with 27.7%, followed by Dems Becerra at 24.5% and Steyer at 17.3%. Urban centres are not yet included.

11:07am Early mail votes will be released soon after polls close in California at 1pm. Votes cast on election day will report later today, but that will only take the California count to about half complete. The New York Times suggests it will take ten days for the count to be 95% complete.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Polls close at 1pm AEST today for California’s jungle primary. At a jungle primary all candidates compete together, and the top two, regardless of party, advance to the November general election.

The main interest will be the California gubernatorial primary. In April it was plausible that Republicans Hilton and Bianco could both advance. But Democrats Becerra and Steyer have both surged in the polls. The Fiftyplusone aggregate has Hilton at 22.2%, Becerra 21.6%, Steyer 19.4% and Bianco well behind with 11.6%. At least one Democrat will advance, avoiding a strongly Democratic state having an all-Republican gubernatorial general election.

Other contests in California will use the same system. If two Democrats or two Republicans advance to the runoff in a competitive seat, that’s a disaster for the opposite party. The first round of a special election in California’s first federal seat will also be today, with a runoff on August 4 if nobody wins a majority, after the Republican incumbent died in January.

At the 2024 presidential election, California’s first voted for Donald Trump by 61.1-36.1 over Kamala Harris, a 24.9-point margin. This seat has been gerrymandered to favour Democrats, with the new lines giving Harris a 12.2-point margin, but these lines won’t apply to the special election. Two Republicans and two Democrats are standing, with Republican Gallagher likely to dominate the Republican vote and win an outright majority.

Republicans currently hold a 218-212 majority in the House of Representatives with four other vacancies. The jungle primary for Democrat Swalwell’s California 14 is on June 16 with a runoff if needed on August 18 after Swalwell resigned in April. A jungle primary will occur in Georgia 13 on July 28 with a runoff if needed on August 25 after the Democratic incumbent died in April.

I wrote for The Conversation on May 15 about two recent court decisions that will result in the federal House map for the 2026 midterm elections favouring Republicans. On April 30, the US Supreme Court allowed southern states to axe their Black seats and on May 8 the Virginia Supreme Court rejected a Democratic 10-1 gerrymander of Virginia’s 11 House seats, despite this gerrymander passing at a referendum.

As a result of these decisions, Democrats need to win the House popular vote by at least four points to have a good chance to win a House majority at November’s midterm elections. In Nate Silver’s aggregate of generic ballot polls, Democrats lead Republicans by 48.6-41.6, a 7.0-point margin. That’s the biggest lead for Democrats this cycle. Trump’s net approval in Silver’s aggregate has improved slightly to -19.0 from a low of -20.2 on May 19.

Democrats need four gains to control the Senate. On national polling, North Carolina and Maine should be gains while other Republican-held states need at least a double-digit Democratic margin to fall. Controversial Democratic and Republican nominees in Maine and Texas respectively could make Maine harder for Democrats and Texas easier.

UK: Can Andy Burnham win the Makerfield by-election?

After dire results for Labour at the May 7 Welsh and Scottish parliamentary elections and English local elections, there has been renewed pressure on PM Keir Starmer’s Labour leadership. Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is seen as the most likely challenger to Starmer, but he needs a seat in the House of Commons first.

On May 14, Labour MP Josh Simons resigned Makerfield to allow Burnham to become an MP if he wins the June 18 by-election. Starmer didn’t attempt to block Burnham, unlike for the February Gorton and Denton by-election. At the 2024 general election, Labour defeated the populist right Reform in Makerfield by 45.2-31.8 with 10.9% for the Conservatives, 6.8% Liberal Democrats and 4.4% Greens. But at the May local elections, Reform won 50% in the eight wards within Makerfield.

A small-sample Survation poll of Makerfield in mid-May gave Burnham a 43-40 lead over Reform, with 7% for Restore (another populist right party), 4% Lib Dems, 3% Greens and 2% Conservatives. In the Election Maps UK aggregate of national polls, Reform leads with 27.7%, followed by Labour at 19.3%, the Conservatives 18.1%, the Greens 14.0%, the Lib Dems 12.3% and Restore 2.9%. The Greens have slid from a high of 15.9% in early April.

Live Commentary

10:48am Sunday With all 136 councils declared, the results are Reform 1,453 councillors (up 1,451), Labour 1,068 (down 1,496), Lib Dems 844 (up 155), Tories 801 (down 563) and Greens 587 (up 441). So Labour lost 58% of seats it was defending, a bit better than expected. Councils controlled are Labour 28 (down 38), Lib Dems 15 (up one), Reform 14 (up 14), Tories nine (down six), Greens five (up five) and Aspire one (up one – Tower Hamlets), with 64 with no overall control (up 23).

12:09pm These elections were about as bad as expected for Labour in England and Scotland, and worse than expected in Wales. The party that had dominated Wales since the first devolved election in 1999 won just nine out of 96 seats. The pre-election polls were good in Scotland, but overstated Labour and understated PC in Wales.

11:36am After results from 130 of 136 English councils, Reform won 1,443 councillors (up 1,441), Labour 959 (down 1,395), the Lib Dems 834 (up 151), the Tories 773 (down 555) and the Greens 511 (up 370). Councils controlled are Labour 27 (down 35), the Lib Dems 15 (up one), Reform 14 (up 14), the Tories nine (down six) and the Greens four (up four), with 61 with no overall control (up 22). I expect the remaining councils by Sunday morning AEST. While the Greens were runner-up to Reform with 18% according to the BBC’s PNS, their vote appears to have been too evenly dispersed to beat Labour, the Tories or the Lib Dems in number of councillors.

11:25am In English mayoral elections, the Greens have also gained Lewisham from Labour to add to their gain in Hackney. These are the first two directly elected Greens mayors. The other four mayoral elections have all been holds for the Tories, Labour, the Lib Dems and Aspire in Tower Hamlets.

10:59am With counting complete in Scotland, the SNP won 58 of the 129 seats (down six since 2021), Labour 17 (down four), Reform 17 (up 17), the Greens 15 (up six), the Tories 12 (down 19) and the Lib Dems ten (up six). Vote shares in the FPTP seats were 38.2% SNP (down 9.5%), 19.2% Labour (down 2.4%), 15.8% Reform (new), 11.8% Tories (down 10.1%), 11.4% Lib Dems (up 4.4%) and 2.3% Greens (up 1.0%). In the list seats, the SNP won 27.2% and the Greens 14.0%.

7am The BBC’s Projected National Share (PNS) for these council elections gives Reform 26% of the vote (down four since the 2025 council elections), the Greens 18% (up seven), the Tories 17% (up two), Labour 17% (down three) and the Lib Dems 16% (down one). In 2022, the last time most of these seats were elected, Labour won the PNS by 35-30 over the Tories with 19% for the Lib Dems. The PNS is a figure for what would have happened had council elections been held nationally, and can be compared from one year of elections to the next.

6:44am In Scotland, 115 of the 129 seats have been declared, including all 73 FPTP seats. In the FPTP seats, the SNP won 57 seats (down six on 2021), the Lib Dems seven (up three), the Tories four (down one), Labour three (up two) and the Greens two (up two). Reform didn’t win any FPTP seats. The SNP and Greens are already at a combined 69 seats (57 SNP and 12 Greens), above the 65 needed for a majority.

6:31am Saturday Counting in Wales is complete, with the BBC showing seat changes from 2021 using a redistribution (as there were 60 total seats in 2021 vs 96 now). The nationalist Plaid Cymru won 43 seats (up 20), Reform 34 (up 34), Labour nine (down 35), the Tories seven (down 22), the Greens two (up two) and the Lib Dems one (up one). PC is six seats short of a majority, with Labour their most plausible partner. Vote shares were 35.4% PC (up 14.7%), 29.3% Reform (up 28.2%), 11.1% Labour (down 25.1%), 10.7% Tories (down 14.3%), 6.7% Greens (up 2.4%) and 4.5% Lib Dems (up 0.1%).

11:15pm And that’s all from me until tomorrow morning.

11:14pm In Scotland, after seven of the 73 FPTP seats have declared, the SNP has won six and the Lib Dems one, a gain for the SNP at the Lib Dems’ expense. There are still no Welsh results, but the Labour Welsh First Minister is expected to lose her seat and Labour is expected to only win ten seats out of 96 (they won 30 out of 60 in 2021).

11:06pm In English councils after 63 of 136 results, Reform has won 561 councillors (up 559), the Lib Dems 336 (up 28), the Tories 305 (down 249), Labour 292 (down 380) and the Greens 106 (up 58). Councils controlled are Labour 13 (down 11), the Lib Dems eight (up one), the Tories six (down two) and Reform three (up three), with 33 NOC (up nine). Labour’s proportional seat losses have increased on counting tonight.

9:58pm The SNP have held Dundee City West by 49-25 over Labour with 13% for Reform. That’s a 12.5% drop in the SNP vote.

9:49pm The first Scottish result is in, with the Lib Dems retaining Orkney Islands by 70-16 over the SNP, an 8% swing to the Lib Dems and 13% against the SNP since 2021.

9:07pm There are no counts available yet, but the Greens have gained Hackney mayoralty from Labour. That’s a former Labour stronghold in London. Update: the Greens defeated Labour by 47.2-35.5 with 8.4% for the Tories and 5.3% for Reform.

8:34pm Counting in Wales and Scotland started at 6pm AEST, with first Scottish results expected at about 9pm.

8:25pm After 46 of 136 English councils, Reform have won 401 councillors (up 399), the Tories 256 (down 174), Labour 253 (down 260), the Lib Dems 251 (up 37) and the Greens 53 (up 28). Councils controlled are Labour ten (down eight), the Tories six (down one), the Lib Dems five (up one) and Reform two (up two), with 23 for NOC (up six).

4:50pm There’s going to be a lull in counting until tonight, when we’ll get Welsh and Scottish results and 96 further council results.

4:06pm The Tories have regained Westminster in London from Labour after losing it in 2022. In inner London councils, it’s just Tories vs Labour. The Tories won 32 of the 54 seats, a nine-seat gain.

3:51pm Reform takes its first council, gaining Newcastle-under-Lyme from the Tories. All 44 seats were up, with Reform winning 27 (up 27), the Tories 15 (down ten) and Labour two (down 17).

3:44pm (three paragraph entry) After 38 of 136 councils, Reform has 317 councillors (up 317), Labour 219 (down 240), the Lib Dems 236 (up 35), the Tories 190 (down 117) and the Greens 48 (up 26). Councils controlled are Labour ten (down seven), Lib Dems five (up one) and Tories three (steady), with No Overall Control (NOC) 20 (up six).

While Labour has lost over half the seats they held, they’re doing better so far than some projections that had them losing 70% of their current seats. Curtice said the Greens are getting about 18%, but this isn’t quite enough in FPTP to win large numbers of seats.

In 2022, Labour gained Wandsworth from the Tories, ending 44 years of Tory dominance in this London council. This election (an all-out election), the Tories regained seven seats, but didn’t quite win a majority, finishing with 29 of 58 seats, to 28 Labour and one independent.

2:21pm Curtice says Reform is averaging 40% where at least 60% voted for Brexit, but only 9% where fewer than 40% voted to Leave. In contrast, the Greens are at 26% in pro-Remain areas but 12% in pro-Leave areas.

1:35pm BBC election analyst John Curtice says in key wards, Reform have 30% of the vote, Labour 16%, the Greens 15% (up ten since 2022). The Tories are down 14% since 2022 and the Lib Dems down 5%.

1:31pm Wigan is a good example of the one-third up for election rule helping the former major parties retain control. Of the 25 seats up for election, Reform won 24 with Labour losing all 22 seats they were defending. But Labour retains control with 42 of the total 75 seats.

1:19pm After 26 of 136 councils, Reform has won 224 councillors (up 224), Labour 84 (down 162), the Lib Dems 68 (down three), the Tories 67 (down 65) and the Greens 34 (up 22). Councils controlled are Labour seven (down five), Lib Dems three (up one), Tories two (steady) and no overall control 14 (up four).

11:59am The Lib Dems have gained control of Stockport in Greater Manchester (previously no overall control). The damage to Labour and the Tories in councils controlled has been limited so far by only having one-third of councillors up at this election. London councils to come in later will have all-out elections.

11:19am After 11 of 136 councils declared, Reform has 93 councillors (up 93), the Tories 13 (down 20), Labour 12 (down 67), the Lib Dems 12 (down three) and the Greens six (up four). Councils controlled are Labour four (down three), the Tories one (steady) and no overall control six (up three). In councils in so far, only one-third of seats have been up for election, so Labour’s controls are from the two-thirds that are not up.

10:46am Reform has won 46 councillors (up 46), Labour six (down 37), the Lib Dems five (down two), the Greens four (up three) and the Tories two (down five).

10:04am Councillors won so far are Reform 12 (up 12 since 2022), Labour two (down 12), Lib Dems two (up one), Greens one (up one) and Tories zero (down two).

9:52am The two councils that have been called Labour holds are because only one-third of seats were up for election, and Labour held nearly all the seats not up for election.

9:45am Slow going so far, with only four ward results in. The BBC says we should get results from ten councils soon.

9:10am Friday The BBC’s live blog says counting in Wales and Scotland won’t begin until Friday UK time (tonight AEST).

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Continue reading “Welsh and Scottish elections live”

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Welsh and Scottish parliamentary elections and English local government elections will occur on Thursday May 7. Labour has been the dominant party at Welsh elections since the first devolved election in 1999, winning half or just under half the seats. At this election, there will be 96 members elected in 16 six-member electorates by proportional representation. This reform scraps the first-past-the-post seats.

The Election Maps UK aggregate gives the left-wing Welsh nationalist Plaid Cymru 29.1%, followed by the populist right Reform at 26.4%, Labour 14.9%, the Conservatives 10.3%, the Greens 10.3% and the Liberal Democrats 6.0%. Seat projections give Plaid 38 seats, Reform 30, Labour 13, the Conservatives eight, the Greens five and the Lib Dems two. If this occurs, Plaid and Labour combined would be able to govern.

Of the 129 Scottish seats, 73 are elected by FPTP and 56 are list seats, with the list seats used to maintain overall proportionality, so that parties that dominate FPTP seats win few list seats. The Scottish National Party (SNP) has dominated since 2011.

In the Election Maps UK aggregate, the SNP has 35.2% of the vote in the FPTP seats, followed by 18.0% for Labour, 17.6% Reform, 10.8% Conservatives, 10.1% Lib Dems and 6.0% Greens. In list seats, the Greens have 13.0% and the SNP 29.4%. Seat projections give the SNP 61, Labour 18, Reform 17, the Greens 13, the Conservatives 11 and the Lib Dems nine. If this occurs, the SNP will hold government with the Greens’ support.

A total of 5,066 coucillors will be up for election in England on May 7. The large majority of councillors were last elected at the 2022 local elections. At those elections, Labour won the Projected National Share (PNS) by 35-30 over the Conservatives with 19% for the Lib Dems. The PNS calculates a national vote share for council elections. At the 2025 local elections, the PNS was 30% Reform, 20% Labour, 17% Lib Dems, 15% Conservatives and 11% Greens.

Current national vote shares are 26.3% Reform, 19.1% Labour, 18.5% Conservatives, 15.8% Greens and 12.2% Lib Dems. If these vote shares occur at the local elections, Reform and the Greens will gain massively at the expense of Labour and the Conservatives. Since January, there has been a trend to the Greens and against Reform. Seat projections now have Reform well below a majority in the House of Commons, but adding the Conservatives to Reform gives the right a majority.

US updates

Last Tuesday, a referendum on a Democratic gerrymander in Virginia succeeded by a 51.5-48.5 margin. Subject to legal challenges, Democrats will implement a 10-1 gerrymander of Virginia’s 11 federal House seats, a four-seat gain for Democrats. However, the 3.0-point margin for “yes” was lower than Kamala Harris’ 5.8-point margin over Donald Trump in 2024 in Virginia.

In near-final results from the April 16 New Jersey 11 special election, Democrat Mejia defeated Republican Hathaway by 59.9-39.6, an 11.6-point swing to Democrats from the Harris Trump margin in NJ 11. Since my post on this special, one Democrat has resigned over financial irregularities, and another has died. Republicans hold a 218-212 lead in the House of Representatives with five vacancies.

In Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Trump’s net approval is a record low -18.5, 1.8 points worse than on April 16. In Silver’s aggregate of the generic ballot, Democrats lead Republicans by an unchanged 5.7 points. Midterm elections occur this November.

Hungarian election final results

Of the 199 Hungarian seats, 106 are elected by FPTP and the remaining 93 by national proportional representation with a 5% threshold. At the April 12 election, the conservative and pro-European Tisza won 141 seats (new), while Viktor Orbán’s governing far-right Fidesz won 52 seats (down 83).

The 141 seats for Tisza is above the 133 needed for a two-thirds supermajority that is required to change the constitution. Tisza won the 106 FPTP seats by 96-10 from vote shares of 55.3-36.7. In the national list, Tisza won 53.2% and Fidesz 38.6% (down 15.5%). At the 2022 election, the United for Hungary (EM) alliance of mainly left-wing parties had won 57 seats. At that election, Fidesz won the FPTP seats by 87-19 on vote shares of 52.5-36.9.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

The parliamentary by-election for the UK Labour-held seat of Gorton and Denton will occur on February 26. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 50.8%, followed by the far-right Reform with 14.1%, the Greens with 13.2%, the Workers Party with 10.3% and the Conservatives with 7.9%.

Andy Burnham, Labour mayor of Greater Manchester, was blocked from standing by Labour’s National Executive Committee. The public reason was concerns about a by-election for Greater Manchester mayor, but Burnham was seen as a potential challenger to Keir Stamer’s Labour leadership. He needed a seat in the House of Commons to be Labour leader.

The Election Maps UK national poll aggregate gives Reform 29.8%, Labour 20.3%, the Conservatives 18.8%, the Greens 13.4% and the Liberal Democrats 12.4%. After dipping to third in December, Labour has edged back ahead of the Conservatives. On these vote shares, Reform would win a clear majority with 345 of the 650 Commons seats.

Upcoming US federal special elections

On January 31, Democrat Christian Menefee defeated a fellow Democrat to win the runoff for the Texas 18th federal House seat. The runoff occurred as no candidate won over 50% in the November 4 “jungle primary”.  This seat was vacant for almost 11 months. Republicans now lead Democrats by 218-214 in the House of Representatives.

There are three upcoming federal specials. Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene resigned her Georgia House seat on January 5, and a jungle primary special will occur March 10. It’s unlikely anyone will get over 50%, so a runoff will need to be scheduled. Democrat Mikie Sherrill was elected New Jersey governor in November, and a special for her House seat will occur April 16. A California Republican died on January 6, with the special to occur August 4.

In gerrymandering news, the Supreme Court in December reversed a lower court ruling that had annulled the Texas Republican gerrymander. This means Republicans can gain an additional five seats from Texas by gerrymandering. However, the Court on February 4 upheld California’s retaliatory Democratic gerrymander that will give Democrats five additional seats.

Virginia Democrats have proposed a 10-1 Democratic gerrymander of Virginia’s 11 House seats, gaining four seats. This will need a referendum to approve, with a poll having “yes” to gerrymandering leading by 51-43. A court has blocked this gerrymander, but Democrats are appealing.

Midterm elections of all the House and one-third of the Senate will occur this November. In Nate Silver’s generic ballot aggregate, Democrats lead Republicans by 47.9-42.3, a 5.6-point margin. Democrats’ position has improved since last November. Donald Trump’s net approval in Silver’s aggregate is -14.4, near his worst this term of -15.0.

Conservative LDP landslide at Japanese election

The Japanese lower house election occurred Sunday, just 15 months after the last election in late 2024. In 2024, the conservative Liberal Democratic Party and its Komeito allies lost their combined majority. After Sanae Takaichi was elected LDP leader and PM in October, Komeito split from the LDP, forcing the LDP to ally with another right-wing party (Ishin). At this election, Komeito allied with the centre-left Constitutional Democratic Party to form the Centrist Reform Alliance (CRA).

Of the 465 seats, 289 were elected by first past the post and 176 by 11 multi-member electorates using proportional representation. The LDP won 316 seats (up 125 since 2024), with the CRA winning just 49 (down 123) and Ishin 36 (up two). The LDP’s 316 seats is the most ever for a party in Japan. In the FPTP seats, the LDP defeated the CRA by 249-7 on vote shares of 49.2-21.6. The LDP has governed almost continuously since its formation in 1955.

Portugal and Chile

At Sunday’s Portuguese presidential runoff election, the centre-left Socialist candidate defeated the far-right Chega candidate by 66.8-33.2. While this was a good result for the left, the presidency is largely symbolic. At May 2025 legislative elections, the Socialists finished third behind the conservative PSD and Chega.

I previously covered the November Chile legislative elections and first round of the presidential election. At the December 14 presidential runoff, right-winger José Antonio Kast defeated Communist Jeannette Jara by 58.2-41.8. Kast replaces left-winger Gabriel Boric as president.