British politics – The Poll Bludger

French parliamentary election runoffs live

The far-right National Rally is unlikely to win a majority. The UK election was the most disproportionate in modern history.

Live Commentary

10:37am Tuesday The composition of the 182 NFP members are 74 from the far-left LFI, 59 from the centre-left Socialists, 28 Greens, nine Communists and 12 others. Adding Ensemble’s 168 to NFP, but subtracting LFI and the Communists gives 267 seats, still 22 short of a majority.

12pm It’s been a long stretch of following international elections for me, including the UK, French, Indian and European parliament elections. Unless Joe Biden withdraws from the US presidential contest, I will next post in early August.

10:57am Wikipedia’s figures are 180 of 577 seats for the NFP (up 49 since 2022), 159 Ensemble (down 86), 142 RN and allies (up 53), 39 Republicans (down 25), 27 other righties (up 17), 12 other lefties (down nine), six other centrists (up two) and nine regionalists (down one). Adding others, 192 NFP (up 40), 165 Ensemble (down 84), 142 RN (up 53) and 66 Republicans (down eight). A majority requires 289 seats, so parliament is well hung.

9:55am Official runoff round results have been released. Le Monde has the NFP on 182 of the 577 seats, Ensemble 168, RN 143, the Republicans 45, other righties 15, other lefties 13, other centrists six and regionalists four. Adding the others would give the NFP 195 seats, Ensemble 174, RN 143 and the Republicans 60. To pass legislation, Macron’s Ensemble will need either the NFP or RN to also be in favour. In the previous parliament, he had an option of cooperating with the Republicans.

8:42am With six seats left, 179 NFP, 165 Ensemble, 143 RN and 45 Republicans.

8:17am With 16 seats left, 177 NFP, 160 Ensemble, 141 RN and 45 Republicans.

7:48am As expected, the NFP and Ensemble are surging as the final seats are finalised. With 28 seats left, it’s 174 NFP, 153 Ensemble, 140 RN and 45 Republicans.

7:40am Large first round leads for RN candidates are being overturned in the runoffs. In Sarthe’s fourth, the NFP defeated the RN by 50.2-49.8. First round results were 39.3% RN, 25.94% NFP and 25.88% Ensemble. The Ensemble candidate withdrew.

7:28am With 42 seats left, the NFP has 165 seats, Ensemble 149, RN 140 and the Republicans 44.

7:09am With 78 seats remaining, Ensemble takes second spot from RN. Current totals are 146 NFP, 140 Ensemble, 137 RN and 40 Republicans.

7:05am Le Monde has maps of the results so far. With 95 seats still to be finalised, the NFP has won 140 seats, the RN 135, Ensemble 133, the conservative Republicans 38, other righties 15, other lefties ten, other centrists six and regionalists four. The remaining seats, mostly from cities, should heavily favour the NFP and Ensemble.

6:57am The Ifop projection of components of the NFP alliance has the far-left LFI with 82-86 seats, the Communists at 9-10, the centre-left Socialists at 62-67 and the Greens at 34-35. There are also 8=10 other lefties.

6:28am Monday A big shock, with current projections, which are partly based on votes counted so far, putting the left-wing NFP in first place, followed by Macron’s Ensemble, and the far-right RN in third. An Ipsos projection has the NFP at 171-187 seats, Ensemble at 152-163 and RN at 134-152. Ifop has NFP at 188-199, Ensemble 164-169 and RN 135-139.

6:30pm Wikipedia has the results of 14 seat runoffs, presumably from French territories outside France that voted Saturday. Regionalists won five of these seats, the NFP three, other lefties three, other righties two and other centrists one. Adding the 76 seats decided in the first round with vote majorities, the total out of 90 seats decided is 38 RN and allies, 35 NFP, five Republicans and other righties, five regionalists, three other lefties and three Ensemble and other centrists. So 487 seats remain to be decided.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The 577 French lower house seats are elected by a two-round single-member system. The runoffs are today, with polls outside the cities closing at 3am AEST Monday. All polls are closed by 4am AEST.

In final results of last Sunday’s first round, the far-right National Rally (RN) and allies won 33.2%, the left-wing alliance of four parties (NFP) 28.1%, President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Ensemble 21.3% and the conservative Republicans and other right-wing candidates 10.2%.

Turnout was high at 66.7% of registered voters. This meant 76 seats were filled, where the winner had at least 50% of valid votes and at least 25% of registered votes. It also meant that many third candidates cleared the 12.5% of registered voters required to advance. On these results, 306 seats would go to three-way runoffs and five to four-way runoffs.

In today’s runoffs, first past the post will be used. To avoid splitting the anti-RN vote, there have been a large number of candidate withdrawals. Now there are only 89 three-way runoffs and two four-way runoffs remaining after the candidate registration deadline on Tuesday. Europe Elects said there are 154 NFP vs RN contests, 135 Ensemble vs RN, 50 Republicans vs RN, 83 are three or four-way runoffs involving NFP, RN and either Ensemble or the Republicans, and 37 seats don’t have RN candidates.

Polls released since Tuesday’s registration deadline give RN and allies 170-240 seats, the NFP 165-203 seats, Ensemble 95-160 and the Republicans 25-63. If today’s results reflect the polls, RN and allies will be far short of the 289 seats needed for a majority, and there’s some chance that the NFP wins more seats than RN. Polls conducted before the first round had RN much closer to a majority.

In an Ifop poll, centre-left and Ensemble candidates led RN by 53-47, while the far-left tied at 50-50 with RN and the Republicans led RN by 56-44. An OpinionWay poll had RN beating NFP by 53-47 but losing to Ensemble 52-48. In a three-way race, NFP had 36%, Ensemble 34% and RN 30%.

UK election most disproportionate in modern history

In Thursday’s UK election, Labour won 411 of the 650 seats, the Conservatives 121, the Liberal Democrats 72, the Scottish National Party nine, independents six, Reform five and the Greens four. Labour won 63.2% of seats on 33.7% of votes, the Conservatives 18.6% on 23.7%, the Lib Dems 11.1% on 12.2%, Reform 0.8% on 14.3% and the Greens 0.6% on 6.7%. Europe Elects said it was the most disproportional UK election in modern history. Large swings against Labour in their safe seats helped their vote efficiency, even though they lost a few seats to pro-Gaza independents.

In Scotland Labour won 37 of the 57 seats, to just nine for the SNP, on vote shares of 35.3% Labour and 30.0% SNP. In 2019, the SNP had won 48 of the 59 Scottish seats, to just one for Labour, on shares of 45.0% SNP and 18,6% Labour.

Other international electoral developments

More than seven months after the November 22 election, a new Dutch government was sworn in last Tuesday. The new government includes the far-right PVV (37 of the 150 seats), the conservative VVD (24 seats), the Christian democratic NSC (20 seats) and the agrarian right-wing BBB (seven seats). These four parties combined have 88 seats, well above the 76 needed for a majority. This is the first Dutch government to include the PVV and has been described as the most right-wing in recent history.

The Iranian presidential election was held in two rounds, on June 28 and Friday, to replace former right-wing president Ebrahim Raisi, who was killed in a helicopter crash. The reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian defeated the right-wing Saeed Jalili in the runoff by a 54.8-45.2 margin. In Iran, the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei holds the most power, and presidential candidates need to be vetted by the religious Guardian Council.

In early May the Solomon Islands parliament elected the China-friendly foreign minister, Jeremiah Manele, of the previous pro-China PM, Manasseh Sogavare, as the new PM. Sogavare had withdrawn from the contest to be PM and backed Manele, after he failed to win a majority in an April election.

UK general election live

A small recovery for the Conservatives, but a Labour landslide still imminent. Also covered: the French election and US post-debate polls.

Live Commentary

11:24am There’s still one seat left to declare, a large rural Scottish seat that’s expected to go to the Lib Dems. That final seat is expected to declare at 7:30pm AEST today. I will post final results from the UK and Scotland after that declaration. Tomorrow I will have a post on the French parliamentary election runoffs.

8:01am Saturday Northern Ireland’s 18 seats split seven Sinn Fein (steady since 2019), five Democratic Unionists (down three), two Social Democratic and Labour (steady), one Alliance (steady), one Ulster Unionist (up one), one Traditional Unionist (up one) and one independent (up one). Vote shares were 27% SF (up 4), 22% DUP (down 9), 11% SDLP (down 4), 15% Alliance (down 2), 12% UUP (up 0.5) and 6% TUV (new).

6:39pm I’ve done an article for The Conversation on the UK results. The key takeaway is that, while Labour won a seat landslide, their vote share of 33.8% was only ten points ahead of the Tories, when final polls had them 18 points up, and it trailed the combined Tory and Reform vote share (38.0%). This vote share is the lowest for any party that has won a majority in the UK.

4:31pm The Tories have lost four seats previously held by their PMs tonight, two to Labour and two to the Lib Dems. The Lib Dems won Theresa May’s old seat of Maidenhead and David Cameron’s Witney, while Labour won Boris Johnson’s Uxbridge as well as defeating Truss.

4:14pm Liz Truss is out of parliament after being defeated by 27-25 by Labour in her South-West Norfolk seat, with 23% Reform and 14% for an independent. Labour’s vote was up 8 with Truss down 43.

3:52pm The Greens gain North Herefordshire from the Tories by 43-32, on a 34-point swing to the Greens and a 31-point slump for the Tories. The Greens easily held their one existing seat of Brighton Pavilion.

3:02pm The Greens gain Waveney Valley from the Tories by 42-30, a 32% swing to the Greens and a 32% drop for the Tories. Reform won 16% (new) and Labour 9% (down 9 owing to tactical voting).

2:27pm Labour GAINS North-East Somerset from Tory Jacob Rees-Mogg, a fervent supporter of Boris Johnson. 41% Labour (up 14), 30% Tories (down 25) and 15% Reform (new).

2:11pm After 479 of 650, Labour has WON an overall majority, with 333 seats (up 155). The Tories have 72 (down 171), the Lib Dems 46 (up 39), Reform four (up four), the SNP four (down 34), independents four (up four) and Plaid four (up two). Vote share changes are Labour up 1.4, Tories down 19.5, Lib Dems up 0.3, Reform up 12 and Greens up 4.

1:32pm After 30 of 57 Scottish seats, 23 Labour (up 22), four SNP (down 23), two Lib Dems (up one) and one Tory (steady). Vote share changes are Labour up 18.5 and SNP down 15.5.

1:27pm After 332 of 650 seats (more than halfway through now), 245 Labour (up 111), 42 Tories (down 122), 27 Lib Dems (up 23), four Reform (up four), four SNP (down 21) and three Plaid (up two). Vote share changes are Labour up 1.2, Tories down 19.5, Lib Dems none, Reform up 12.5 and Greens up 4.2.

1:20pm The Greens crushed Labour in Bristol Central by 57-33, a 31-point gain for the Greens and a 26-point slump for Labour.

1:15pm Something went wrong for Labour in Leicester. They lost Leicester East to the Tories and now Leicester South to an independent, who defeated Labour by 35-33, a 35% drop for Labour.

1:09pm After 266 of 650 seats, 196 Labour (up 85), 32 Tories (down 99), 23 Lib Dems (up 20), four SNP (down 14), three Reform (up three), two Plaid (up two) and one Green (up one). Vote share changes are Labour up 1.0, Tories down 20, Lib Dems no change, Reform up 13 and Greens up four.

1:02pm Reform leader Nigel Farage easily wins Clacton, defeating the Tories by 46-28 with 16% for Labour. Former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn easily wins Islington North as an independent, defeating Labour by 49-34. A pre-election seat poll had Corbyn trailing by 43-29.

12:31pm After 141 of 650 seats, 110 Labour (up 41), 14 Tories (down 49), 14 Lib Dems (up 11), one Reform (up one), one SNP (down five) and one Plaid (up one). Vote share changes are Labour up 0.7, Tories down 19, Lib Dems down 0.1, Reform up 12.5 and Greens up 4.

12:24pm The Tories have GAINED Leicester East from Labour, very much against the trend. 31% Tories (down 7), 22% Labour (down 29!), 13.5% Lib Dem (up 8), 12% independent (new) and 8% One Leicester (new). I believe Labour’s crash here is probably due to the Muslim vote.

12:11pm Labour has won all three seats declared so far in Scotland, gaining all three from the SNP. Labour’s Scottish vote is up 23 points, while the SNP is down 17.

12:05pm After 84 of 650 seats, Labour 73 (up 29), Tories six (down 31), Lib Dems four (up three) and Reform one (up one). Vote share changes are Labour up 1.2, Tories down 20, Lib Dems down 0.4, Reform up 13 and Greens up four.

11:54am The first Scottish seat (Kilmarnock & Loudoun) is a Labour gain from the SNP. 45% Labour (up 26), 33% SNP (down 18), 8% Tories (down 16) and 8% Reform (new).

11:46am Labour lost Hartlepool to the Tories at a by-election in May 2021 when Boris Johnson was popular, but have won it easily at this election. Earlier this year, Labour lost Rochdale at a by-election to George Galloway after their candidate was disendorsed. In the rematch, Labour defeated Galloway by 33-29 with 17% for Reform and 11% Tories.

11:27am Reform WINS their first seat in Ashfield, gaining from the Tories. 43% Reform (up 38), 29% Labour (up three), 16% independent (down 11) and an embarrassing 4th place for the Tories in a seat they held with just 8% (down 31!).

11:14am After 22 of 650 seats, Labour 19 (up seven), Lib Dems two (up two) and Tories just one (down nine). Vote share changes based on these seats’ votes in 2019 are Labour up two, Lib Dems up 0.4, Tories down 22, Reform up 14 and Greens up four.

11:09am Labour GAINS Bridgend in Wales from the Tories. 40% Labour (up one), 19% Reform (up 14), 16% Tories (down 28!), 9% Plaid (up four) and 8% for an independent.

11:05am Labour GAINS Nuneaton from the Tories. 37% Labour (up five), 28.5% Tories (down 32!) and 22% Reform (new).

10:41am Lib Dems GAIN Harrogate & Knaresborough from Tories. 46% Lib Dem (up 10), 30% Tories (down 22), 11% Reform (new) and 8% Labour (down two).

9:39am Labour GAINS Swindon South from the Tories. Labour 48% (up 8), Tories 27% (down 25) and Reform 14% (new).

8:42am It’s a similar story in Blyth & Ashington, Labour up a little, Reform surges and the Tories plunge.

8:37am Labour HOLDS Houghton & Sunderland South, the first seat to be declared. Labour 47% (up 7), Reform 29% (up 13) and Tories 14% (down 19). Turnout was 51% (down six).

7:09am Friday The Exit Poll has Labour on 410 of the 650 seats, the Tories on 131, the Lib Dems 61, Reform 13, the SNP 10, Plaid Cymru (Welsh Nationalists) four and the Greens two. That’s better for the Tories and Reform than expected from pre-election polls, a little worse for Labour and a lot worse for the SNP.

8:45pm I prefer traditional polls, but William has asked me to comment on what the Multilevel Regression with Poststratification (MRP) polls are saying. These have massive sample sizes, with the YouGov MRP the largest sample at almost 48,000. The YouGov MRP agrees well with the ElectionMapsUK forecast below, with 431 Labour seats, 102 Conservatives, 72 Lib Dems and 18 SNP. The Survation MRP is the most bearish for the Conservatives, with just 64 Conservatives, to 484 for Labour and 61 Lib Dems. Fieldwork periods for the MRP polls were at least a week, so they wouldn’t pick up late movement.

The UK general election is today, with polls closing at 7am AEST Friday. The Guardian’s election night guide says The Exit Poll will be released once polls close. The exit poll only gives party seat numbers, not vote shares. In past elections, for example 2015 and 2017, the exit poll has predicted seat numbers at odds with pre-election polls. In these cases, the exit poll has been more accurate.

In the UK, votes are not counted at polling places but transported to a counting location within each seat before they are counted. All times listed here are AEST. The Guardian expects only eight of the 650 House of Commons seats to be declared by 10am Friday. By 12pm, about 85 seats will be in. The big rush of results will come between 12pm and 2pm, with 443 declarations, and the remaining seats should be declared by 4pm with “perhaps a few exceptions”.

The final UK national poll aggregate from ElectionMapsUK has Labour at 39.3%, the Conservatives at 21.4%, the far-right Reform at 16.4%, the Liberal Democrats at 11.0% and the Greens at 6.4%. Polls in the final few days have suggested a small recovery for the Conservatives, with Labour’s lead dropping below 20 points. Individual poll results have been between Labour leads of 13 and 20 points over the Conservatives.

With first past the post, these vote shares result in a Labour landslide. The ElectionMapsUK seat forecast is for Labour to win 436 of the 650 seats, the Conservatives 101, the Lib Dems 66, the Scottish National Party 17, the Greens four and Reform three. While the Conservatives have improved to just above 100 seats, that’s far below the 165 they won at their previous nadir in 1997.

While Labour has led the SNP by single-digit margins in most Scottish polls since March, the final Savanta poll gave the SNP a 34-31 lead over Labour. If true, the SNP could limit its losses after getting 48 of 59 Scottish seats in 2019 to just one for Labour. Seat polls for the Greens have them gaining three seats. In other UK election news, the right-wing tabloid The Sun has endorsed Labour.

French election: candidate withdrawals may block far-right RN from majority

The 577 French lower house seats are elected by a two-round single-member system. In final results of Sunday’s first round, the far-right National Rally (RN) and allies won 33.2%, the left-wing alliance of four parties (NFP) 28.1%, President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Ensemble 21.3% and the conservative Republicans and other right-wing candidates 10.2%.

In this Sunday’s runoffs, FPTP will be used. To avoid splitting the anti-RN vote, there have been a large number of candidate withdrawals. Now there are only 89 three-way runoffs and two four-way runoffs remaining after the candidate registration deadline on Tuesday.

A Harris poll conducted Tuesday and Wednesday gave RN and allies 190-220 seats (240-305 in the Harris poll on first-round election day), the NFP 159-183 seats (140-190) and Ensemble 110-135 (70-120). If this occurs, RN and allies will be well short of the 289 seats needed for a majority.

Biden still dropping in US polls

The US election is on November 5. Before last Thursday’s debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, Biden was nearly tied with Trump in FiveThirtyEight’s national poll aggregate (down by only 0.1 point). Biden has now fallen 2.3 points behind, trailing Trump by 42.1-39.8 with 9.7% for Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

The highly-regarded Siena poll for The New York Times of likely voters gave Trump a five-point lead with third party candidates and a six-point lead without, a 2-3 point movement to Trump since Siena’s pre-debate poll. State polls have not yet caught up to the debate. There’s increasing speculation that Biden may withdraw from the contest. If this occurs, a new candidate will be selected by Democrats at their August 19-22 convention.

UK general election minus three days

Labour remains about 20 points ahead in UK polls. Also covered: the first round results of France’s parliamentary elections and US polls after the debate.

The UK general election is on Thursday. The Electoral Calculus site has Labour on 40.4% in its aggregate of national polls (up 0.9 since last Monday’s article), the Conservatives on 21.2% (up 1.3), the far-right Reform on 14.9% (down 2.9), the Liberal Democrats on 11.7% (down 0.1) and the Greens on 5.8%. Reform leader Nigel Farage’s pro-Russia comments on the Ukraine war ten days ago may have deflated Reform’s surge.

Owing to first past the post, Labour would win a massive landslide if these vote shares are replicated Thursday. Electoral Calculus gives them 465 of the 650 House of Commons seats, with the Lib Dems ahead of the Conservatives by 71 to 65 seats. The Scottish National Party would win 18 seats, Reform six and the Greens three.

Individual poll results range from Labour leads over the Conservatives from 15 to 25 points, though two have Reform ahead of the Conservatives in second place. The People Polling poll that had Reform 11 points behind Labour last week this week gave Labour 40% (up five), Reform 21% (down three) and the Conservatives 15% (steady).

In Scotland, Labour continues to lead the SNP by single-digit margins, and should make a large seat gain after winning just one of 59 Scottish seats in 2019. A recent seat poll of former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s Islington North, which Corbyn is contesting as an independent, has Labour’s candidate leading Corbyn by 43-29.

PM Rishi Sunak’s net favourablility in a YouGov poll conducted last week was -57, his lowest as PM. He has fallen from -42 in late May. Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net favourability was -20; it has been between -12 and -25 this year. The Conservative party’s net favourability was -56, while Labour’s was -12.

I covered the UK, US and French elections for The Conversation last Thursday (before the US debate). This has when to expect UK results on Friday AEST. Under Boris Johnson’s leadership, the Conservatives led in the polls until late 2021, and did not crash into their current position until after he was ousted.

Far-right RN underperforms in French first round results

The 577 French lower house seats are elected by a two-round single-member system. In Sunday’s first round, the far-right National Rally (RN) and allies won 32.4%, the left-wing alliance of four parties (NFP) 28.7%, President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Ensemble 21.6% and the conservative Republicans and other right-wing candidates 10.1%. Pre-election polls had RN in the mid to high 30s.

Turnout was high at 66.9% of registered voters. This meant 77 seats have been filled, where the winner had at least 50% of valid votes and at least 25% of registered votes. It also means that many third candidates cleared the 12.5% of registered voters required to advance. On these results, 307 seats will go to three-way runoffs and six to four-way runoffs.

In the runoffs next Sunday, FPTP will be used, but candidates can withdraw prior to the runoffs, for example to create a two-candidate contest to block RN. Candidates need to register for the runoffs by Tuesday.

Biden’s position worsens after debate

The US election will be held on November 5. In Thursday’s Conversation article, which was published the day before the debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump on Friday AEST, Biden was only 0.1 point behind Trump in FiveThirtyEight’s national poll aggregate. Better economic data and Trump’s conviction probably explain Biden’s gains.

Three days after the debate, Biden trails Trump by 41.7-40.4 with 9,1% for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Biden’s position is likely to worsen further as more post-debate polls come in. In a YouGov poll for CBS News, by 72-28 voters thought Biden should not be running for president (63-37 in February). By 72-29, they thought he does not have the mental health to be president (65-35 three weeks ago).

UK general election minus ten days

Labour remains over 20 points ahead with Reform surging. Also covered: the French parliamentary elections on June 30 and July 7, the US election and the final European parliament results.

The UK general election will be held on July 4. The Guardian’s aggregate of national polls has Labour on 41.9% (down 1.0 since last Monday’s article), the Conservatives on 21.4% (down 0.9), the far-right Reform on 15.0% (up 1.4), the Liberal Democrats on 10.9% (up 0.6) and the Greens on 5.7% (steady).

Most individual polls have Reform between 16% and 19%, within a few points of overtaking the Conservatives for second place. The most spectacular poll in the last week was a People Polling poll that had Labour on 35%, Reform on 24% and the Conservatives on 15%. While other polls have had Reform just ahead or tied with the Conservatives, no other poll has been close to People Polling’s numbers.

The Electoral Calculus site has lower vote shares for Labour and the Conservatives than The Guardian (39.5% Labour, 19.9% Conservative) and higher Reform and Lib Dem votes (17.8% Reform, 11.6% Lib Dems). But with first past the post, the forecast is for Labour to win 457 of the 650 House of Commons seats, to 76 for the Conservatives, 66 for the Lib Dems, 22 for the Scottish National Party, just three for Reform and two for the Greens.

Labour remains ahead of the SNP in Scottish polls, which represents a big swing to Labour and against the SNP since the 2019 election in Scotland. If replicated at the election, Labour will make large seat gains in Scotland, where they won just one of 59 seats in 2019.

There are two recent seat polls of Clacton, which Reform leader Nigel Farage is contesting. Both polls have Farage easily winning, with a 15-point lead in Survation and a 27-point lead in JL Partners. The Conservatives won 71.9% in Clacton in 2019, but are in the 20s in these two polls, with Farage in the 40s. A seat poll in PM Rishi Sunak’s seat has Sunak leading Labour by 39-28 with 18% for Reform, so Sunak should hold his seat.

French election: Far-right National Rally likely to win most seats

The French parliamentary election will be held on June 30 (first round) and July 7 (runoffs). In first round polls, the far-right National Rally (RN) and its allies are in the mid-30s, the left-wing alliance of four parties (NFP) is in the high-20s, President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Ensemble is just over 20% and the conservative Republicans are on about 8%.

This means that Ensemble are likely to be eliminated from the runoffs in the large majority of the 577 seats, which will be RN vs NFP contests. Seat forecasts suggest RN will win about 250 seats, short of the 289 needed for a majority. A poll of hypothetical runoff contests had RN beating NFP by 41-33 but losing to Ensemble by 40-37, implying that if Ensemble could make the final two, RN would do much worse.

US: Biden closes on Trump ahead of debate

The US general election will be held on November 5. There will be a debate hosted by CNN between Joe Biden and Donald Trump this Thursday (Friday at 11am AEST). Biden has moved ahead of Trump by 0.3% in the last week in the FiveThirtyEight national aggregate, reversing a one-point Trump lead previously. Biden has also gained in the key states that will decide the Electoral College, with Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania effectively tied. Biden needs to win all three of these states for a 270-268 EC win.

Near-final European parliament election result

There were 720 total seats for the European parliament election that was held June 6-9 by proportional representation in the various countries, up 15 seats from the post-Brexit European parliament. The conservative European People’s Party won 189 seats (up two since 2019 adjusted for Brexit), the centre-left Socialists and Democrats 136 (down 12), the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists 83 (up 21), the liberal Renew 74 (down 23), the far-right Identity and Democracy 58 (down 18), the Greens 51 (down 16), the far-left 39 (down one) and all Others 90 (up 54). The Others group includes far-right parties that were expelled or resigned from other groups, such as Germany’s Alternative for Germany and Hungary’s governing Fidesz.

UK general election minus 17 days

Labour is still over 20 points ahead in UK national polls. Also covered: the French parliamentary elections on June 30 and July 7, Mexican final results and a South African government formed.

The UK general election will be held on July 4. The Guardian’s aggregate of UK national polls has Labour on 42.9% (down 1.1 since my June 9 article), the Conservatives on 22.3% (down 1.1), the far-right Reform on 13.6% (up 1.7), the Liberal Democrats on 10.3% (up 0.6) and the Greens on 5.7% (steady).

In the last two weeks, there has been movement to Reform and to a lesser extent the Lib Dems, and against both Labour and the Conservatives. A recent YouGov poll had Reform in second, one point ahead of the Conservatives, but this has not been repeated in other polls.

Owing to first past the post, these vote shares would mean a massive Labour landslide if they occur at the election, with the Electoral Calculus site on Friday giving Labour 461 of the 650 House of Commons seats, the Conservatives 80, Lib Dems 63 and Scottish National Party 20. Labour is still ahead of the SNP in Scottish polls, which would mean a big swing in Scotland to Labour and against the SNP, and a large seat gain for Scottish Labour.

Snap French parliamentary election likely disaster for Macron

On June 9, French president Emmanuel Macron announced a snap election for the lower house of parliament after dismal European election results for his Ensemble party. This election comes two years into a five-year term.

The 577 MPs are elected in two rounds using a single-member system. The first round will be held June 30, and candidates that finish top two in a seat, or win at least 12.5% of registered voters can continue (this is a high barrier because it factors in turnout). Candidates can withdraw before the July 7 runoffs, at which FPTP applies. The vast majority of seats won’t be decided until the runoffs.

At the 2022 parliamentary election, Ensemble won 245 of the 577 seats, below the 289 needed for a majority. The left-wing NUPES alliance won 131 seats, the far-right National Rally (RN) 89 and the conservative Republicans 64.

Left-wing parties have formed the New Popular Front (NFP) and will run one candidate in each seat. Polls suggest RN is in the low 30s, the NFP in the mid to high 20s, Ensemble below 20%, the Republicans about 8% and another far-right party has about 4%.

If these polls are replicated in the first round, Ensemble won’t make the top two in the large majority of seats, with the majority of runoffs between RN and NFP candidates. Some pollsters have seat projections that suggest RN would be close to a majority. Ensemble is likely to be drastically reduced from its current 248 seats, a disaster for Macron.

Mexican election: landslide for the left in legislature

I previously covered the June 2 Mexican election, in which left-wing candidate Claudia Sheinbaum won the presidency by 61.2-28.1 with invalid votes excluded. For the Chamber of Deputies, 300 seats were elected by FPTP and the remaining 200 by proportional representation. In the Senate, 96 seats (three for each of the 32 states) were elected by giving the strongest party in a state two seats and the runner-up one, with the remaining 32 allocated by PR.

In the Chamber, the left-wing coalition won the FPTP seats by 256-42, on vote shares of 56.8-31.6. They won overall by 373-102 with 24 for a centre-left party. In the Senate, the left won the state seats by 64-30, and won overall by 83-40 with five for the centre-left. The left exceeded the two-thirds majority needed to change the Constitution in the Chamber, but were two seats short in the Senate. At the previous presidential election in 2018, the left won 308 Chamber seats and 69 Senate seats.

South Africa: ANC and DA agree to form coalition

I previously covered the May 29 South African election, in which the African National Congress (ANC) lost the majority it had won at every election since 1994. On Friday, the ANC and pro-business Democratic Alliance (DA) agreed to form a governing coalition, and the ANC’s Cyril Ramaphosa was re-elected president. At the election, the ANC won 159 of the 400 seats and the DA 87, so the coalition will have 246 seats, easily surpassing the 201 needed for a majority.

European parliament election live

Far-right parties are expected to make gains. Also covered: UK Labour remains over 20 points ahead and Trump still leads in US polls after his conviction.

Live Commentary

12:10pm The Europe Elects live results forecast now has the right-wing ECR group moving into third ahead of the liberal Renew group with 81 seats to 80. This is because two liberal parties missed the 4% threshold in Italy, so neither won any seats. Had they formed a joint list, they would have won seats.

9:20am Tuesday The final Italian results have the governing right-wing Brothers of Italy on 28.8% (up 22.3% since 2019), the centre-left Democrats on 24.1% (up 1.4%), the anti-establishment 5 Star Movement on 10.0% (down 7.1%), the conservative Forza Italia on 9.6% (up 1.1%), the far-right League on 9.0% (down 25.3%) and a left-wing party on 6.7% (up 2.6%).

5:58pm In German final EU results, the conservative CDU/CSU won 29 seats (steady), the far-right AfD 15 (up four), the Social Democrats 14 (down two), the Greens 12 (down nine), the economically left but socially right BSW six (new), the liberal FDP five (steady), the Left three (down two) and a pro-Europe party three (up two).

5:01pm In Poland, final results have the liberal to conservative Civic Platform narrowly ahead of the Law and Justice party by 37-36 with 12% for the far-right Kon.

4:56pm Final French results have the far-right National Rally winning 31.4% (up 8.1 since 2019), Macron’s party 14.6% (down 7.8), a centre-left party 13.8% (up 7.6), the far-left 9.9% (up 3.6), the conservatives 7.2% (down 1.3), the Greens 5.5% (down 8.0) and another far-right party 5.5%.

4:44pm The biggest gains vs the current European parliament composition in the Europe Elects forecast are for Non-Inscrits (up 27), the EPP (up 14) and ECR (up 10). The biggest losses are for the Greens (down 21) and the Liberals (down 17).

9:32am The Greens are now down to 51 seats on the Europe Elects live forecast, five below the 56 seats they were expected to win yesterday, and 23 below what they won in 2019.

9:30am In Hungary, with 76% counted, the far-right governing Fidesz has 44%, (down 8.6% since 2019), but the main opposition is a new conservative party, which has 30%. Left-wing parties had little support.

8:26am There’s a big swing to a conservative party and against the Greens in Belgium’s national election today, with the conservatives up ten seats and the Greens down 11 seats.

8:19am Based on partial and near-complete results from some countries, and polls from others, the Europe Elects current forecast is for the conservative EPP group to win 194 of the 720 seats, the centre-left S&D 137, the liberal Renew 83, the Eurosceptic ECR 72, the far-right ID 63, the Greens 55 and the far-left 38. Non-aligned Non-Inscrits (NI) will win the remaining 78 seats; these include far-right parties that were expelled from other groups. These results are better for the EPP and worse for Renew, the ECR and ID than yesterday’s forecast (see below).

7:41am In Spain, the conservative People’s Party has gained nine seats for 22 to be the most popular party ahead of the governing Socialists with 20. Other seats have gone to right and left-wing parties.

7:35am In Germany, the far-right AfD has surged into second place with 16 seats, up five from 2019, with the Greens down nine seats to 12.

7:30am With 77% counted in France, National Rally has 35%, Macron’s party 14.4% and the centre-left 12.9%.

7:08am Monday After a disastrous result for French president Emmanuel Macron’s liberal party, in which they finished a distant second to the far-right National Rally, Macron has called snap parliamentary elections for June 30 (first round) and July 7 (runoffs). Macron’s party does not currently have a parliamentary majority. These elections will be for the French lower house, not for the presidency.

The European parliament (EU) election is being held from Thursday to today, with vote counting starting once all countries have finished voting. Italy will be the last country to finish voting at 7am AEST Monday, so this is when counting starts. This is the first EU election since Brexit, so the UK won’t be involved.

The 720 seats are elected using proportional representation in each EU country. The countries that have the most seats are Germany (96 seats), France (81), Italy (76), Spain (61) and Poland (53).

European parties are grouped according to their political alignment. The conservative European People’s Party (EPP) includes all conservative parties from the various countries, while the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) group includes all centre-left parties.

In 2019, the EPP won 187 of the 751 seats, the S&D 147, the liberal Renew 98, the Greens 74, the far-right Identity and Democracy (ID) 76, the soft Eurosceptic Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) 62 and the far-left 41. Non-Inscrits (NI), who are not grouped into a European faction, won the remaining 57 seats.

Far-right parties are expected to make gains at this election. The final Europe Elects forecast is for the EPP to win 184 of the 720 seats, the S&D 136, Renew 87, the ECR 74, ID 67, the Greens 56 and the far-left 37. The NI had 79 seats in this forecast, and this included far-right parties such as the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and Hungary’s governing Fidesz that have been expelled by other EU factions.

If far-right parties don’t do as well as expected, turnout could be a factor. People who support far-right parties are likely to have a lower educational attainment than those who oppose the far-right. Higher educational attainment means a higher likelihood of voting in an optional voting system.

The Belgian national parliament election will be held concurrently with the EU election. The 150 seats are elected by PR in 11 multi-member electorates with a 5% threshold per electorate. The Dutch-speaking part of Belgium (Flanders) is very right-wing, while the French-speaking part (Wallonia) is very left-wing.

UK election: Labour remains over 20 points ahead

The UK general election is on July 4. The Guardian’s national poll aggregate has Labour on 44.0% (down 0.7 since last Tuesday), the Conservatives on 23.4% (down 0.4), the far-right Reform on 11.9% (up 0.7), the Liberal Democrats on 9.7% (up 0.6) and the Greens on 5.7% (up 0.1). Reform has gained a little since Nigel Farage announced he would contest Clacton on June 3, but Labour remains way ahead, and would win a massive landslide if the election results replicate these polls.

Nominations for the election closed on Friday. If a candidate does something embarrassing, they can’t be withdrawn from the ballot paper, only publicly disendorsed by their party. UK elections are managed by local governments, so there are no easily accessible national lists of candidates, as there would be with Australia’s electoral commissions. Reform has said it will stand candidates in 630 of the 650 Commons seats and the Greens 575. Presumably, Labour, the Conservatives and the Lib Dems will contest all seats not in Northern Ireland.

US election: Trump still leads

The US general election is on November 5. It’s been over a week since Donald Trump’s May 30 conviction. In FiveThirtyEight’s tracker of national polls, Trump leads Joe Biden by 40.9-39.9 with 9.4% for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Trump led by 1.7 points on May 30. Biden’s best chance to win the Electoral College is to win all of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, states where he currently trails by 1.5 points or less.

Indian election vote counting live

Right-wing Indian PM Narendra Modi expected to easily win a third successive term. Also covered: upcoming European parliament, UK and US elections, and South African and Mexican results.

Live Commentary

7:05am Wednesday Just one seat remains to be declared, in which an INDIA alliance member is currently ahead. Modi’s NDA alliance has won 293 seats, while the INDIA alliance has won 229 and leads in one. While the NDA will retain a majority (272 needed for a majority), the BJP party (240 seats) is well below the majority they easily exceeded in 2019.

10:51pm 115 of the 543 seats have now been officially declared. The NDA leads in or has won 282 seats, while the INDIA alliance leads in or has won 175 seats. The BJP itself leads in or has won 240 seats, which would be 32 short of a majority and 63 down on 2019.

7:45pm The NDA leads in 278 seats to the INDIA alliance’s 173., with the BJP alone leading in 240 seats, well short of the 272 needed for a majority. The Indian electoral commission has declared four seats. In 2019, the BJP alone won 303 seats and its alliance got 353.

5:06pm The NDA now leads in 285 seats to 167 for the INDIA alliance. Modi’s BJP party leads in 243 seats, well short of a majority in its own right.

4:36pm The NDA has slipped back to 273 seats, only barely enough for a majority, while the INDIA alliance leads in 176 seats. All 543 seats now have some counting, so the remaining seats must be going to independents and others not aligned with either alliance. Contrary to polls, this doesn’t look like a Modi landslide.

3:33pm The NDA now leads in 278 seats, to 186 for the INDIA alliance. The seats the NDA now leads in are over the 272 needed for a majority.

2:27pm The NDA is now leading in 242 seats to 144 for the INDIA alliance. Unless late counting reverses the current trends, the NDA will win decisively. I have a one-hour appointment starting at 2:30pm, so I’ll next post after that.

2:11pm BJP and allies (NDA) now leading in 223 seats, to 121 for opposition INDIA alliance.

2:06pm Bloomberg says the BJP and allies are leading in 198 seats, while Congress and allies are leading in 127 seats. 272 seats are needed for a majority.

1:59pm With results in from 339 of the 543 seats, Modi’s BJP is leading in 169 seats, while their main opponents Congress are leading in 65 seats. I’m not sure about allied parties yet.

11:50am I expect official results to appear here from 12:30pm AEST.

The Indian election was held in seven stages, from April 19 to June 1. No interim results have been released, with vote counting to occur today. Counting will start at 8am Indian time (12:30pm AEST). The 543 MPs are elected by first past the post. India is the world’s most populous country, having overtaken China in 2023.

The right-wing alliance (NDA) of PM Narendra Modi, who is running for a third successive term, has a high-single to double-digit lead in polls over the opposition INDIA alliance. If the election results reflect the polls, the NDA will win a decisive majority owing to the single-member system. Exit polls released after voting finished Saturday also suggest a big majority for the NDA. Modi is easily the most popular global leader in Morning Consult’s tracker of leaders’ ratings, with 74% approval and 21% disapproval.

Other upcoming elections

The European parliament election will be held from Thursday to Sunday, with vote counting starting once all countries have finished voting. The 720 seats are elected using proportional representation in each EU country. Far-right parties are expected to make gains. I will have a post on this on Sunday.

The UK general election will be held on July 4. The Guardian’s national poll aggregate has Labour on 44.7% (steady since last Thursday), the Conservatives on 23.8% (up 0.5), the far-right Refrom on 11.2% (down 0.1), the Lib Dems on 9.1% (down 0.4) and the Greens on 5.6% (down 0.4). In the last week, there was a jump from a 14 to a 20-point Labour lead in an Opinium poll with other polls little changed.

Update 9:21am Tuesday: Nigel Farage will contest Clacton for Reform, and also becomes Reform’s leader. The JL Partners poll that previously had Labour’s lead at 12 points now has Labour leading by 17 points.

The US general election will be held on November 5. National polls conducted since the May 30 conviction of Donald Trump suggest a small movement to Joe Biden. If this is sustained, Biden should be able to overturn his 1.2% deficit to Trump in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate of national polls and improve his chance to win the Electoral College.

ANC loses majority at South African election

The 400 South African MPs were elected by proportional representation without a threshold. The African National Congress (ANC) had won a majority of votes and seats at every election since the end of apartheid in 1994, but lost their majority at the May 29 election.

The ANC won 40.2% of the vote (down 17.3% since 2019), the centrist Democratic Alliance 21.8% (up 1.0%), former president Jacob Zuma’s left-wing populist MK 14.6% (new) and the communist EFF 9.5% (down 1.3%). The ANC won 159 seats, the DA 87, the MK 58 and the EFF 39. The ANC will need an alliance to get the 201 seats required for a majority.

Mexican left wins second successive landslide

Mexican presidents are elected for six-year terms by FPTP and cannot run for re-election. In 2018, Andrés Manuel López Obrador of the left-wing MORENA party won a breakthrough victory for the left with 54.7%, with his nearest opponent on just 22.9%. At Sunday’s election, MORENA’s Claudia Sheinbaum crushed conservative Xóchitl Gálvez by 57.8-29.3 with 10.6% for a third party candidate (results at 5:40pm AEST Monday with 53% reporting). Sheinbaum is a former climate scientist and will be Mexico’s first female president.

Update 9:12am Tuesday: With 93% reporting, Sheinbaum wins by 59.2-27.8 with 10.4% for the third candidate. MORENA also held its majorities in the legislature.

UK general election minus five weeks

A Labour landslide is the likely outcome of the UK election. Also: coverage of upcoming Indian, European parliament and US elections.

The UK general election will be held on July 4. The Guardian’s aggregate of UK national pols has Labour over 20 points ahead of the Conservatives, with vote shares of 44.7% Labour, 23.3% Conservative, 11.3% for the far-right Reform, 9.5% Liberal Democrats and 6.0% Greens. In the week since the election was called, Labour’s vote has improved about one point.

With the UK’s use of first-past-the-post, current vote shares imply a massive Labour landslide. The Electoral Calculus seat forecast as at May 21 was for Labour to win 479 of the 650 House of Commons seats, to just 92 Conservatives, 44 Lib Dems and 12 from the Scottish National Party (SNP).

Two recent national polls from Opinium and JL Partners are better for the Conservatives with Labour leads at 12-14 points. But most polls have Labour leading by over 20 points.

At the December 2019 general election, the Conservatives won 365 of the 650 seats, to 202 for Labour, 48 SNP and 11 Lib Dems. Perhaps it was a mistake for the Conservatives to oust Boris Johnson as their leader and PM after he led them to this triumph. The Conservatives have governed in the UK for the last 14 years.

At the 2019 election in Scotland, the SNP won 48 of the 59 seats, to six Conservatives, four Lib Dems and just one Labour. Vote shares were 45.0% SNP, 25.1% Conservative, 18.6% Labour and 9.5% Lib Dems. Scottish polls suggest Labour has overtaken the SNP, which would give Labour a large seat gain at the SNP’s expense.

Conservative PM Rishi Sunak’s net favourability was at its highest at -19 soon after he became PM in November 2022. In January 2024, it dropped to -51, and has been at about that level since. Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net favourability has been between -23 and -17 since May 2023.

Other upcoming elections

The Indian election has been held in seven stages, with the final stage this Saturday. Votes will be counted next Tuesday June 4, and I will have a post to follow the counting. The 543 MPs are elected by FPTP. The right-wing alliance (NDA) of PM Narendra Modi, who is running for a third successive term, has a high-single to double-digit lead in polls over the opposition INDIA alliance, and is expected to win a decisive majority.

The European parliament election will be held from June 6-9, with vote counting starting once all countries have finished voting. The 720 seats are elected using proportional representation in each EU country. Far-right parties are expected to make gains. I will have a post on this on June 9.

The US general election will be held on November 5. In the FiveThirtyEight national poll aggregate, Donald Trump leads Joe Biden by 41.0-39.8 with 10.1% for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Trump’s lead has slightly widened from 0.8% four weeks ago. The best chance for a Biden win is to win all of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, where he trails by two points or less. If he does this, he probably wins the Electoral College by 270-268.

South African election

The 400 South African MPs are elected by proportional representation without a threshold. The African National Congress (ANC) has won a majority of votes and seats at every election since the end of apartheid in 1994. I hoped to have results of Wednesday’s election, but only 0.6% had been counted at 12pm AEST Thursday, seven hours after polls closed. I will update this section when fuller results are available.

Update 11:50am Friday With 51% counted, the ANC is at 42.6%, down from 57.5% at the 2019 election, and looks set to lose the majority they have held since 1994.

Page 1 of 13

1 2 … 13 Next »