Category: British politics

Live Commentary

10:48am Sunday With all 136 councils declared, the results are Reform 1,453 councillors (up 1,451), Labour 1,068 (down 1,496), Lib Dems 844 (up 155), Tories 801 (down 563) and Greens 587 (up 441). So Labour lost 58% of seats it was defending, a bit better than expected. Councils controlled are Labour 28 (down 38), Lib Dems 15 (up one), Reform 14 (up 14), Tories nine (down six), Greens five (up five) and Aspire one (up one – Tower Hamlets), with 64 with no overall control (up 23).

12:09pm These elections were about as bad as expected for Labour in England and Scotland, and worse than expected in Wales. The party that had dominated Wales since the first devolved election in 1999 won just nine out of 96 seats. The pre-election polls were good in Scotland, but overstated Labour and understated PC in Wales.

11:36am After results from 130 of 136 English councils, Reform won 1,443 councillors (up 1,441), Labour 959 (down 1,395), the Lib Dems 834 (up 151), the Tories 773 (down 555) and the Greens 511 (up 370). Councils controlled are Labour 27 (down 35), the Lib Dems 15 (up one), Reform 14 (up 14), the Tories nine (down six) and the Greens four (up four), with 61 with no overall control (up 22). I expect the remaining councils by Sunday morning AEST. While the Greens were runner-up to Reform with 18% according to the BBC’s PNS, their vote appears to have been too evenly dispersed to beat Labour, the Tories or the Lib Dems in number of councillors.

11:25am In English mayoral elections, the Greens have also gained Lewisham from Labour to add to their gain in Hackney. These are the first two directly elected Greens mayors. The other four mayoral elections have all been holds for the Tories, Labour, the Lib Dems and Aspire in Tower Hamlets.

10:59am With counting complete in Scotland, the SNP won 58 of the 129 seats (down six since 2021), Labour 17 (down four), Reform 17 (up 17), the Greens 15 (up six), the Tories 12 (down 19) and the Lib Dems ten (up six). Vote shares in the FPTP seats were 38.2% SNP (down 9.5%), 19.2% Labour (down 2.4%), 15.8% Reform (new), 11.8% Tories (down 10.1%), 11.4% Lib Dems (up 4.4%) and 2.3% Greens (up 1.0%). In the list seats, the SNP won 27.2% and the Greens 14.0%.

7am The BBC’s Projected National Share (PNS) for these council elections gives Reform 26% of the vote (down four since the 2025 council elections), the Greens 18% (up seven), the Tories 17% (up two), Labour 17% (down three) and the Lib Dems 16% (down one). In 2022, the last time most of these seats were elected, Labour won the PNS by 35-30 over the Tories with 19% for the Lib Dems. The PNS is a figure for what would have happened had council elections been held nationally, and can be compared from one year of elections to the next.

6:44am In Scotland, 115 of the 129 seats have been declared, including all 73 FPTP seats. In the FPTP seats, the SNP won 57 seats (down six on 2021), the Lib Dems seven (up three), the Tories four (down one), Labour three (up two) and the Greens two (up two). Reform didn’t win any FPTP seats. The SNP and Greens are already at a combined 69 seats (57 SNP and 12 Greens), above the 65 needed for a majority.

6:31am Saturday Counting in Wales is complete, with the BBC showing seat changes from 2021 using a redistribution (as there were 60 total seats in 2021 vs 96 now). The nationalist Plaid Cymru won 43 seats (up 20), Reform 34 (up 34), Labour nine (down 35), the Tories seven (down 22), the Greens two (up two) and the Lib Dems one (up one). PC is six seats short of a majority, with Labour their most plausible partner. Vote shares were 35.4% PC (up 14.7%), 29.3% Reform (up 28.2%), 11.1% Labour (down 25.1%), 10.7% Tories (down 14.3%), 6.7% Greens (up 2.4%) and 4.5% Lib Dems (up 0.1%).

11:15pm And that’s all from me until tomorrow morning.

11:14pm In Scotland, after seven of the 73 FPTP seats have declared, the SNP has won six and the Lib Dems one, a gain for the SNP at the Lib Dems’ expense. There are still no Welsh results, but the Labour Welsh First Minister is expected to lose her seat and Labour is expected to only win ten seats out of 96 (they won 30 out of 60 in 2021).

11:06pm In English councils after 63 of 136 results, Reform has won 561 councillors (up 559), the Lib Dems 336 (up 28), the Tories 305 (down 249), Labour 292 (down 380) and the Greens 106 (up 58). Councils controlled are Labour 13 (down 11), the Lib Dems eight (up one), the Tories six (down two) and Reform three (up three), with 33 NOC (up nine). Labour’s proportional seat losses have increased on counting tonight.

9:58pm The SNP have held Dundee City West by 49-25 over Labour with 13% for Reform. That’s a 12.5% drop in the SNP vote.

9:49pm The first Scottish result is in, with the Lib Dems retaining Orkney Islands by 70-16 over the SNP, an 8% swing to the Lib Dems and 13% against the SNP since 2021.

9:07pm There are no counts available yet, but the Greens have gained Hackney mayoralty from Labour. That’s a former Labour stronghold in London. Update: the Greens defeated Labour by 47.2-35.5 with 8.4% for the Tories and 5.3% for Reform.

8:34pm Counting in Wales and Scotland started at 6pm AEST, with first Scottish results expected at about 9pm.

8:25pm After 46 of 136 English councils, Reform have won 401 councillors (up 399), the Tories 256 (down 174), Labour 253 (down 260), the Lib Dems 251 (up 37) and the Greens 53 (up 28). Councils controlled are Labour ten (down eight), the Tories six (down one), the Lib Dems five (up one) and Reform two (up two), with 23 for NOC (up six).

4:50pm There’s going to be a lull in counting until tonight, when we’ll get Welsh and Scottish results and 96 further council results.

4:06pm The Tories have regained Westminster in London from Labour after losing it in 2022. In inner London councils, it’s just Tories vs Labour. The Tories won 32 of the 54 seats, a nine-seat gain.

3:51pm Reform takes its first council, gaining Newcastle-under-Lyme from the Tories. All 44 seats were up, with Reform winning 27 (up 27), the Tories 15 (down ten) and Labour two (down 17).

3:44pm (three paragraph entry) After 38 of 136 councils, Reform has 317 councillors (up 317), Labour 219 (down 240), the Lib Dems 236 (up 35), the Tories 190 (down 117) and the Greens 48 (up 26). Councils controlled are Labour ten (down seven), Lib Dems five (up one) and Tories three (steady), with No Overall Control (NOC) 20 (up six).

While Labour has lost over half the seats they held, they’re doing better so far than some projections that had them losing 70% of their current seats. Curtice said the Greens are getting about 18%, but this isn’t quite enough in FPTP to win large numbers of seats.

In 2022, Labour gained Wandsworth from the Tories, ending 44 years of Tory dominance in this London council. This election (an all-out election), the Tories regained seven seats, but didn’t quite win a majority, finishing with 29 of 58 seats, to 28 Labour and one independent.

2:21pm Curtice says Reform is averaging 40% where at least 60% voted for Brexit, but only 9% where fewer than 40% voted to Leave. In contrast, the Greens are at 26% in pro-Remain areas but 12% in pro-Leave areas.

1:35pm BBC election analyst John Curtice says in key wards, Reform have 30% of the vote, Labour 16%, the Greens 15% (up ten since 2022). The Tories are down 14% since 2022 and the Lib Dems down 5%.

1:31pm Wigan is a good example of the one-third up for election rule helping the former major parties retain control. Of the 25 seats up for election, Reform won 24 with Labour losing all 22 seats they were defending. But Labour retains control with 42 of the total 75 seats.

1:19pm After 26 of 136 councils, Reform has won 224 councillors (up 224), Labour 84 (down 162), the Lib Dems 68 (down three), the Tories 67 (down 65) and the Greens 34 (up 22). Councils controlled are Labour seven (down five), Lib Dems three (up one), Tories two (steady) and no overall control 14 (up four).

11:59am The Lib Dems have gained control of Stockport in Greater Manchester (previously no overall control). The damage to Labour and the Tories in councils controlled has been limited so far by only having one-third of councillors up at this election. London councils to come in later will have all-out elections.

11:19am After 11 of 136 councils declared, Reform has 93 councillors (up 93), the Tories 13 (down 20), Labour 12 (down 67), the Lib Dems 12 (down three) and the Greens six (up four). Councils controlled are Labour four (down three), the Tories one (steady) and no overall control six (up three). In councils in so far, only one-third of seats have been up for election, so Labour’s controls are from the two-thirds that are not up.

10:46am Reform has won 46 councillors (up 46), Labour six (down 37), the Lib Dems five (down two), the Greens four (up three) and the Tories two (down five).

10:04am Councillors won so far are Reform 12 (up 12 since 2022), Labour two (down 12), Lib Dems two (up one), Greens one (up one) and Tories zero (down two).

9:52am The two councils that have been called Labour holds are because only one-third of seats were up for election, and Labour held nearly all the seats not up for election.

9:45am Slow going so far, with only four ward results in. The BBC says we should get results from ten councils soon.

9:10am Friday The BBC’s live blog says counting in Wales and Scotland won’t begin until Friday UK time (tonight AEST).

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Continue reading “Welsh and Scottish elections live”

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Welsh and Scottish parliamentary elections and English local government elections will occur on Thursday May 7. Labour has been the dominant party at Welsh elections since the first devolved election in 1999, winning half or just under half the seats. At this election, there will be 96 members elected in 16 six-member electorates by proportional representation. This reform scraps the first-past-the-post seats.

The Election Maps UK aggregate gives the left-wing Welsh nationalist Plaid Cymru 29.1%, followed by the populist right Reform at 26.4%, Labour 14.9%, the Conservatives 10.3%, the Greens 10.3% and the Liberal Democrats 6.0%. Seat projections give Plaid 38 seats, Reform 30, Labour 13, the Conservatives eight, the Greens five and the Lib Dems two. If this occurs, Plaid and Labour combined would be able to govern.

Of the 129 Scottish seats, 73 are elected by FPTP and 56 are list seats, with the list seats used to maintain overall proportionality, so that parties that dominate FPTP seats win few list seats. The Scottish National Party (SNP) has dominated since 2011.

In the Election Maps UK aggregate, the SNP has 35.2% of the vote in the FPTP seats, followed by 18.0% for Labour, 17.6% Reform, 10.8% Conservatives, 10.1% Lib Dems and 6.0% Greens. In list seats, the Greens have 13.0% and the SNP 29.4%. Seat projections give the SNP 61, Labour 18, Reform 17, the Greens 13, the Conservatives 11 and the Lib Dems nine. If this occurs, the SNP will hold government with the Greens’ support.

A total of 5,066 coucillors will be up for election in England on May 7. The large majority of councillors were last elected at the 2022 local elections. At those elections, Labour won the Projected National Share (PNS) by 35-30 over the Conservatives with 19% for the Lib Dems. The PNS calculates a national vote share for council elections. At the 2025 local elections, the PNS was 30% Reform, 20% Labour, 17% Lib Dems, 15% Conservatives and 11% Greens.

Current national vote shares are 26.3% Reform, 19.1% Labour, 18.5% Conservatives, 15.8% Greens and 12.2% Lib Dems. If these vote shares occur at the local elections, Reform and the Greens will gain massively at the expense of Labour and the Conservatives. Since January, there has been a trend to the Greens and against Reform. Seat projections now have Reform well below a majority in the House of Commons, but adding the Conservatives to Reform gives the right a majority.

US updates

Last Tuesday, a referendum on a Democratic gerrymander in Virginia succeeded by a 51.5-48.5 margin. Subject to legal challenges, Democrats will implement a 10-1 gerrymander of Virginia’s 11 federal House seats, a four-seat gain for Democrats. However, the 3.0-point margin for “yes” was lower than Kamala Harris’ 5.8-point margin over Donald Trump in 2024 in Virginia.

In near-final results from the April 16 New Jersey 11 special election, Democrat Mejia defeated Republican Hathaway by 59.9-39.6, an 11.6-point swing to Democrats from the Harris Trump margin in NJ 11. Since my post on this special, one Democrat has resigned over financial irregularities, and another has died. Republicans hold a 218-212 lead in the House of Representatives with five vacancies.

In Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Trump’s net approval is a record low -18.5, 1.8 points worse than on April 16. In Silver’s aggregate of the generic ballot, Democrats lead Republicans by an unchanged 5.7 points. Midterm elections occur this November.

Hungarian election final results

Of the 199 Hungarian seats, 106 are elected by FPTP and the remaining 93 by national proportional representation with a 5% threshold. At the April 12 election, the conservative and pro-European Tisza won 141 seats (new), while Viktor Orbán’s governing far-right Fidesz won 52 seats (down 83).

The 141 seats for Tisza is above the 133 needed for a two-thirds supermajority that is required to change the constitution. Tisza won the 106 FPTP seats by 96-10 from vote shares of 55.3-36.7. In the national list, Tisza won 53.2% and Fidesz 38.6% (down 15.5%). At the 2022 election, the United for Hungary (EM) alliance of mainly left-wing parties had won 57 seats. At that election, Fidesz won the FPTP seats by 87-19 on vote shares of 52.5-36.9.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

The parliamentary by-election for the UK Labour-held seat of Gorton and Denton will occur on February 26. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 50.8%, followed by the far-right Reform with 14.1%, the Greens with 13.2%, the Workers Party with 10.3% and the Conservatives with 7.9%.

Andy Burnham, Labour mayor of Greater Manchester, was blocked from standing by Labour’s National Executive Committee. The public reason was concerns about a by-election for Greater Manchester mayor, but Burnham was seen as a potential challenger to Keir Stamer’s Labour leadership. He needed a seat in the House of Commons to be Labour leader.

The Election Maps UK national poll aggregate gives Reform 29.8%, Labour 20.3%, the Conservatives 18.8%, the Greens 13.4% and the Liberal Democrats 12.4%. After dipping to third in December, Labour has edged back ahead of the Conservatives. On these vote shares, Reform would win a clear majority with 345 of the 650 Commons seats.

Upcoming US federal special elections

On January 31, Democrat Christian Menefee defeated a fellow Democrat to win the runoff for the Texas 18th federal House seat. The runoff occurred as no candidate won over 50% in the November 4 “jungle primary”.  This seat was vacant for almost 11 months. Republicans now lead Democrats by 218-214 in the House of Representatives.

There are three upcoming federal specials. Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene resigned her Georgia House seat on January 5, and a jungle primary special will occur March 10. It’s unlikely anyone will get over 50%, so a runoff will need to be scheduled. Democrat Mikie Sherrill was elected New Jersey governor in November, and a special for her House seat will occur April 16. A California Republican died on January 6, with the special to occur August 4.

In gerrymandering news, the Supreme Court in December reversed a lower court ruling that had annulled the Texas Republican gerrymander. This means Republicans can gain an additional five seats from Texas by gerrymandering. However, the Court on February 4 upheld California’s retaliatory Democratic gerrymander that will give Democrats five additional seats.

Virginia Democrats have proposed a 10-1 Democratic gerrymander of Virginia’s 11 House seats, gaining four seats. This will need a referendum to approve, with a poll having “yes” to gerrymandering leading by 51-43. A court has blocked this gerrymander, but Democrats are appealing.

Midterm elections of all the House and one-third of the Senate will occur this November. In Nate Silver’s generic ballot aggregate, Democrats lead Republicans by 47.9-42.3, a 5.6-point margin. Democrats’ position has improved since last November. Donald Trump’s net approval in Silver’s aggregate is -14.4, near his worst this term of -15.0.

Conservative LDP landslide at Japanese election

The Japanese lower house election occurred Sunday, just 15 months after the last election in late 2024. In 2024, the conservative Liberal Democratic Party and its Komeito allies lost their combined majority. After Sanae Takaichi was elected LDP leader and PM in October, Komeito split from the LDP, forcing the LDP to ally with another right-wing party (Ishin). At this election, Komeito allied with the centre-left Constitutional Democratic Party to form the Centrist Reform Alliance (CRA).

Of the 465 seats, 289 were elected by first past the post and 176 by 11 multi-member electorates using proportional representation. The LDP won 316 seats (up 125 since 2024), with the CRA winning just 49 (down 123) and Ishin 36 (up two). The LDP’s 316 seats is the most ever for a party in Japan. In the FPTP seats, the LDP defeated the CRA by 249-7 on vote shares of 49.2-21.6. The LDP has governed almost continuously since its formation in 1955.

Portugal and Chile

At Sunday’s Portuguese presidential runoff election, the centre-left Socialist candidate defeated the far-right Chega candidate by 66.8-33.2. While this was a good result for the left, the presidency is largely symbolic. At May 2025 legislative elections, the Socialists finished third behind the conservative PSD and Chega.

I previously covered the November Chile legislative elections and first round of the presidential election. At the December 14 presidential runoff, right-winger José Antonio Kast defeated Communist Jeannette Jara by 58.2-41.8. Kast replaces left-winger Gabriel Boric as president.

Live Commentary

12:13pm Friday With nearly all votes now counted, the Dem’s lead has expanded slightly to 68.9-29.4, a 39.5-point margin.

4:09pm With all election day precincts reported, the Dem wins by 68.6-29.8 with 87% in. The remaining votes will nearly all be late mail that will be counted in the next few days. The current margin of 39 points is 17 points better for the Dems than Harris’ 2024 margin in this seat.

3:06pm Four counties have finished with their election day precincts, but there are no election day votes yet from Pima. The Dem leads by 70.2-28.1 with 82% in.

1:24pm Santa Cruz now in, and the Dem wins by 70.7-27.5 with 80% in. So far the Dem’s 43-point margin is 21 points greater than Harris’ margin in this district in the 2024 election, but that margin is likely to drop on later counting.

1:15pm There are still no results from Santa Cruz county. Democrats do relatively well in Arizona with the first results (mail votes). The remaining votes will probably skew Republican, reducing the Dem’s margin. Election day votes should report by later today AEST.

1:09pm With 75% in, the Dem has won Arizona 7 by 71-28. This includes early votes from five of the six counties that make up this district, including the most populous county of Pima.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Polls close at 12 noon AEST today for a federal special election in Arizona’s Democratic-held seventh district, with first results expected by 1pm. This seat became vacant after the incumbent died in mid-March, a six-month gap.

At the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris defeated Donald Trump in Arizona 7 by 60.3-38.2, so it should be an easy Democrat hold. At 40 state and federal special elections so far this year, Democrats have improved by an average 15.1 points from the 2024 presidential margin in those districts. This reflects a greater tendency for Democrats to vote in low-turnout specials more than a shift in overall electorate preferences.

Republicans hold the US House of Representatives by 219-213, but a win for Democrats today would make it 219-214. A special election to replace a Democrat who died in early March will occur in Texas on November 4, an eight-month gap. A special to replace a Republican who resigned in late July will be held in Tennessee in early December, a 4.5-month gap.

Trump’s net approval in Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls has dropped a point in the last few days to -8.5 after a long period of stability, possibly driven by concerns over inflation and tariffs. Update Wednesday: Trump’s net approval now down to -9.4.

Other US elections on November 4

Most US state elections are held concurrently with federal elections in November of even-numbered years, but some states hold elections this November. In Virginia and New Jersey, there will be gubernatorial elections. In both these states, the incumbent governors (a Democrat in New Jersey and a Republican in Virginia) are term-limited and cannot run for re-election.

Non-partisan polls in NJ have the Democrat leading the Republican by high single digit margins. In Virginia, the Democrat leads by low double-digit margins. At the 2024 presidential election, Harris won NJ by 5.9 points and Virginia by 5.8 points, while Trump won the overall popular vote by 1.5 points.

There will also be legislative elections for the lower house in both NJ and Virginia. Democrats currently hold a 52-28 majority over Republicans in the NJ lower house and a 51-49 majority in the Virginia lower house. Democrats hold a 25-15 upper house majority in NJ and a 21-19 majority in Virginia, which are not up for election.

The New York City mayoral general election will also occur, after socialist Zohran Mamdani defeated Andrew Cuomo to win the Democratic nomination in June by 56.4-43.6 after preferences. The general election uses first past the post, and Mamdani is assisted by the three other major candidates being to his right.

The Decision Desk poll aggregate gives Mamdani 43.0%, Cuomo 25.6%, Republican Curtis Sliwa 14.5% and current mayor Eric Adams 8.8%. In a recent Emerson poll, Mamdani led Cuomo by 43-28 in the full field, but only by 47-40 head to head.

I previously covered the California referendum for Democrats to retaliate for Texas Republican gerrymandering. A recent Emerson College poll gave “yes” to retaliatory gerrymandering a 51-34 lead.

UK deputy Labour leadership election and Labour’s dismal polls

Angela Rayner was UK Labour’s deputy leader and housing minister until she resigned on September 5 owing to underpayment of stamp duty tax. Candidates for deputy leader were required to win at least 80 MP nominations (20% of all Labour MPs). Two candidates cleared this hurdle by the September 11 deadline: education minister Bridget Phillipson and former leader of the House of Commons Lucy Powell.

Labour party members will choose between these two from October 8-23 with the result announced on October 25. Phillipson is regarded as PM Keir Starmer’s choice. A Survation poll of Labour members gave Powell a 47-30 lead.

In the Election Maps UK national poll aggregate, the far-right Reform has 30.9%, Labour 20.6%, the Conservatives 17.7%, the Liberal Democrats 13.8% and the Greens 9.0%. Reform has been well ahead since the May local elections.

With the UK’s FPTP system, Reform would win 352 of the 650 House of Commons seats on these voting intentions, above the 326 needed for a majority. Labour would win just 107, the Lib Dems 74 and the Conservatives 31. Starmer’s net approval is -33.6%, far worse than Reform leader Nigel Farage’s -13.6%.