German politics – The Poll Bludger

German Saxony-Anhalt state election live

The populist right AfD has a realistic chance to win its first ever parliamentary majority at a German state election with just over 40% of votes in polls.

Live Commentary

9:05am Tuesday The UK parliamentary by-election for Holborn and St Pancras will be held on October 8.

12:08pm Turnout for this election was an all-time high of 77.8% (up 17.5% since 2021).

11:19am (Three paragraph entry) With all votes counted, the AfD has won 43.8% of the vote (up 23.0% since 2021), the CDU 17.2% (down 19.9%), the SPD 9.3% (up 0.9%), the Greens 8.9% (up 3.0%), the Left 8.6% (down 2.4%), the BSW 5.3% (new) and the FDP 2.6% (down 3.8%).

Owing to the removal of the extra 14 seats from 2021, seat changes will sum to -14. The AfD won 39 of the 83 seats, three short of a majority (up 16), the CDU 15 (down 25), the SPD eight (down one), the Greens eight (up two), the Left eight (down four), the BSW five (new) and the FDP zero (down seven). To keep the AfD from government will require an alliance of all five non-AfD parliamentary parties.

The AfD did slightly better than polls expected, with the CDU doing much worse. The Greens and BSW also overperformed, with the Left underperforming. The AfD had its highest vote share at a state election and a massive swing to it. In a little good news for the overall German left, the combined vote share for the SPD, Greens and Left was 26.8% (up 1.5%).

10:11am While overall seat numbers are proportional to vote share for parties that pass the 5% threshold, Saxony-Anhalt has 41 single-member seats elected by FPTP. In 2021, the CDU won 40 of these seats to one for the AfD. At this election, the AfD is winning 38 with three for the Left party. In 2021, 14 extra seats were added owing to the overhang caused by the CDU’s dominance of the single-member seats to maintain overall proportionality, but no extra seats will be needed this time, with the minimum 83 total seats elected.

9:42am With 99.6% counted, the BSW is up to 5.3%, ensuring they will win seats and deny the AfD a majority. The AfD has dropped back to 43.9%.

7:17am With 95.1% counted, the BSW remains at 5.2%, above the 5% threshold.

6:53am Monday (two paragraph entry) With 92.3% counted, the AfD has won 45.4% of the votes, but not a majority of seats as six parties cleared the 5% threshold. Current vote shares are 45.4% AfD, 16.5% CDU, 8.9% SPD, 8.8% Greens, 8.3% Left and 5.2% BSW, with the FDP well below the 5% threshold on 2.5%.

Current seats are 39 of 83 for the AfD, below the 42 needed for a majority, 16 CDU, eight SPD, eight Greens, eight Left and four BSW. We’ll need to wait for final results to confirm whether the BSW clears the 5% threshold (they’re at 5.2% currently).

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Polls close at 2am AEST Monday for today’s German Saxony-Anhalt state election. I will report results after I wake up, which should be before 7am.

This election will be held using statewide proportional representation with a 5% threshold to elect at least 83 MPs. Polls have the populist right AfD surging into the low 40s, far ahead of the conservative governing CDU who are in the low 20s. The Left party is in the low double digits and the centre-left SPD in the high single digits.

Three other parties are at or just below the 5% threshold: the Greens, pro-business FDP and economically left but socially right BSW. The Greens are at 5-6%, BSW at 3-4% and FDP at 3%, so the Greens are more likely than not to clear the threshold. If only the AfD, CDU, Left and SPD clear the threshold, the AfD would have a reasonable chance to win its first ever parliamentary majority in a state election.

At the 2021 Saxony-Anhalt election, the CDU won 40 of the 97 seats on 37.1% of the votes, the AfD 23 on 20.8%, the Left 12 on 11.0%, the SPD nine on 8.4%, the FDP seven on 6.4% and the Greens six on 5.9%. Polls conducted before that election had given the CDU 1-7 point leads over the AfD, much lower than the CDU’s actual 16.3-point margin.

The poll error in 2021 may raise expectations that the AfD will once again underperform their polls. However, it should not be assumed that poll errors will behave the same way from one election to the next. For example, polls at the 2025 Australian federal election understated Labor after overstating them in 2022 and 2019.

In German federal polls, the AfD has taken the lead from the CDU/CSU. At the February 2025 federal election, the CDU/CSU won 28.5% of the vote, the AfD 20.8%, the SPD 16.4%, the Greens 11.6% and the Left 8.8%. A coalition of the CDU/CSU and SPD was formed after that election.

Current polls have the AfD rising into the high 20s and the CDU/CSU dropping to the low 20s. There’s been little improvement in the vote share for the combined left (SPD, Greens and Left), with these parties at 40% or below in recent polls (36.8% at the last election).

There are two German state elections on September 20: Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. In Berlin, polls have the combined left-wing parties just below 50%, so the left should win that election. In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the AfD has surged ahead of the SPD after the SPD won the 2021 election by 39.6-16.7 over the AfD. The AfD will probably win the most seats, but be short of a majority.

Swedish election next Sunday

Sweden uses national PR with a 4% threshold to elect its 349 MPs. At the 2022 Swedish election, the conservative Moderates formed a government that was supported by the populist right Sweden Democrats. Polls for next Sunday’s election have the Red-Green bloc of four parties leading the right-wing bloc of four parties by low to high single digit margins. One of the right-wing parties, the Liberals, is consistently polling below the 4% threshold. If they miss the threshold, it will assist the left.

UK by-election for Starmer’s former seat coming soon

Former UK Labour PM Keir Starmer resigned as Member for Holborn and St Pancras last week. A date for the by-election has not yet been set, but it will probably occur in the next month. At the July 2024 UK general election, Starmer won 48.9% in this seat, a left-wing independent 18.9%, the Greens 10.4%, the Conservatives 7.2%, the populist right Reform 6.1% and the Liberal Democrats 5.8%. Greens leader Zack Polanski will contest.

Three Canadian federal by-elections live

Today’s by-elections feature one in Quebec which the Conservatives won narrowly in 2025. Also: updates on the US midterms and a possible AfD majority in a German state election next Sunday.

Live Commentary

9:48am Wednesday (Two paragraph entry) With all 204 booths reporting in NVC, results are 58.6% Liberals (down 1.3% since 2025), 29.2% Tories (down 4.5%), 8.7% Greens (up 7.0%) and 3.1% NDP (down 1.1%). The Liberal winning margin of 29.4 points far exceeded the poll that gave them a 16.5-point margin.

The Liberals have governed in Canada since winning the October 2015 election. In late 2024, they had looked certain to lose the 2025 election in a landslide. The Trump factor helped the Liberals recover to win the 2025 election, and he is continuing to hurt the Canadian Tories, who suffered moderate to huge swings against them in all three by-elections.

4:32pm With all 200 polls reporting in BEY, results are 55.7% Liberals (down 12.1% since 2025), 25.8% NDP (up 18.9%) and 15.5% Tories (down 8.0%). There was a big swing to the NDP at the expense of both the Liberals and Tories. The one poll in this seat overstated the Tories and understated the NDP.

2:51pm With all 212 polls reporting in CLF, results are 51.3% Liberals (up 20.2% since the 2025 election), 32.9% Bloc (up 1.7%) and 12.5% Tories (down 21.6%). This huge win for the Liberals was far bigger than in the two August polls that gave them 3-5 point leads over the Bloc (actual 18.4 points).

1:59pm The CBC has called NVC for the Liberals, as they lead the Tories by 57.9-27.6 with 9.7% for the Greens after 105 of 204 polls. The Liberals will win all three by-elections today (two holds and one gain) and once again have a majority of seats with 173 of the 343.

1:11pm After 10 of 204 polls in from NVC, the Liberals lead the Tories by 55.1-28.9 with 11.7% for the Greens. This should be called for the Liberals soon.

12:54pm In NVC, the Liberals lead the Tories by 51.9-32.1 with 11.% for the Greens and 4.5% NDP after 5 of 204 polls in.

12:51pm The CBC has called Liberal wins in CLF and BEY. In CLF, the Liberals lead the Bloc by 49.1-34.1 with 12.9% Tories after 125 of 212 polls. In BEY, the Liberals are leading the NDP by 55.0-25.6 with 16.0% Tories after 115 of 200 polls.

12:19pm The Liberals are looking very likely to gain CLF from the Tories. With 30 of 212 in, they lead the Bloc by 48.7-32.5 with 12.7% for the Tories. In BEY, the Liberals lead the NDP by 50.0-27.2 with 18.1% for the Tories.

12:07pm After 10 of 212 booths from CLF, the Liberals lead the Bloc by 48.3-32.4 with 15.6% for the Tories. In BEY, after 5 of 200, the Liberals lead the NDP by 52.6-26.7 with 11.2% Tories.

12:01pm I’ll be using abbreviations: CLF for Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, BEY for Beaches-East York and NVC for North Vancouver-Capilano. Canada doesn’t have booth-matched results, so we’ll need to wait for a large amount of polling stations before narrow wins can be called. The CBC has results for CLF and BEY on separate pages.

Polls close at 11:30am AEST today for federal Canadian by-elections in Beaches-East York and Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, and at 12 noon for the North Vancouver-Capilano by-election. Canada uses first-past-the-post for national and provincial elections.

At the April 2025 Canadian election, the centre-left Liberals defeated the Conservatives in North Vancouver-Capilano by 59.8-33.7 with 4.2% for the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP). The Liberals defeated the Conservatives in Beaches-East York by 67.8-23.5 with 6.9% for the NDP. August Poliwave polls gave the Liberals a 16.5-point lead over the Conservatives in North Vancouver-Capilano and a 34-point lead in Beaches-East York.

The most interesting by=election is likely to be in the Quebec seat of Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, which the Conservatives won in 2025 with 34.1%. The separatist Quebec Bloc and the Liberals were nearly tied (31.2% Bloc, 31.1% Liberals). Two August polls gave the Liberals 3-5 point leads over the Bloc with the Conservatives a distant third.

The Liberals currently hold 170 of the 343 House of Commons seats including eight vacancies, so they need to win at least two of today’s by-elections to reach the 172 needed for a majority. Six further by-elections are expected in the near future, with two due to resignations of Liberal MPs. The Liberals have recently surged to lead the Conservatives by double-digit margins in Canadian federal polls.

Also of interest in Canada, a referendum in the right-wing province of Alberta will occur on October 19 proposing that Alberta secede from Canada. Even if the referendum passes, it would only direct Alberta to hold a binding referendum at a later date. Three mid to late August polls have “Remain in Canada” leading by 28 to 52 points.

US updates

At the November 3 US midterm elections, all 435 federal House of Representatives seats and 35 of the 100 senators will be up for election. In 2024 elections, Republicans won the House by 220-215 over Democrats and the Senate by 53-47.

In Nate Silver’s midterm election forecast, Democrats currently have a 56% chance to gain control of the Senate and an 85% chance to gain the House (respectively 57% and 86% in my August 12 US article for The Conversation). Democrats lead Republicans by 50.1-42.4 (7.7 points) in the national generic ballot, down from 8.1 points previously. Donald Trump’s net approval is –19.4 (57.7% disapprove, 38.3% approve), up from -20.4.

Democrats are leading in Senate contests by three points or less in Ohio, Texas and Alaska, all states that Trump won by double-digit margins in 2024. This explains why they are narrow favourites to win the Senate.

Alaska uses a jungle primary with the top four candidates qualifying for the general election using preferential voting. At the August 18 Senate primary, Democrat Mary Peltola won 49.5%, Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan 41.4% and another Dan Sullivan 2.5%; he tried to benefit from name confusion. If these results were replicated in November, Peltola would win.

German state election could be first AfD majority

Next Sunday’s Saxony-Anhalt German state election will be held using statewide proportional representation with a 5% threshold. Polls have the populist right AfD surging into the low 40s, far ahead of the conservative governing CDU who are in the low 20s. The Left party is in the low double digits and the centre-left SPD in the high single digits.

Three other parties are at or just below the 5% threshold. If only the AfD, CDU, Left and SPD clear the threshold, the AfD would have a reasonable chance to win its first ever majority in a state election.

Upcoming New Zealand election

The New Zealand election will be held on November 7 using the Mixed Member Proportional system where parties need to win at least 5% of the party vote or a single-member electorate to qualify for a proportional share of the 120 seats.

The current right-wing governing coalition of National, ACT and NZ First is likely to defeat the left-wing coalition of Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori. But the right may be denied a majority owing to the centrist Opportunity having more than 5% in the latest polls. I wrote about this election for the NZ edition of The Conversation last Tuesday.

US Georgia 14 federal special election runoff live

A Democrat and a Republican will contest today’s runoff in a seat Trump won by 37 points. Also covered: recent European elections and the upcoming Hungarian election and Canadian by-elections.

Live Commentary

1:53pm Thursday I’ve done an article for The Conversation on the drop in Trump’s US ratings and the November midterm elections.

3:56pm With nearly all votes counted in Wisconsin, Taylor wins by 60.1-39.8, a 21-point swing to Dems from the 2024 pres election. The NYT says Taylor particularly outperformed his benchmarks in suburbs, small towns and rural places, exceeding his benchmarks there by 21-23 points compared with 12 points in big cities.

12:51pm In Wisconsin, with 78% in, the left-wing Taylor leads by 60.2-39.7. The NYT expects Taylor to win by 18 points. This is a gain for the left, so left-wing judges will increase their state Supreme Court majority to 5-2 from 4-3 previously.

12:43pm In Georgia 14, with almost all votes now in, Rep Fuller defeats Dem Harris by 55.9-44.1. While that’s a comfortable hold for the Reps, it’s a 25-point reduction in the Rep margin (from Trump’s 37-point win in 2024 to 12 today). Reps will have a 219-214 lead in the House with two vacancies.

11:51am A very easy win for the left-wing judge Taylor in Wisconsin, who now leads Lazar by 61-39 with 52% in. The NYT estimate is for Taylor’s current 22-point lead to narrow to 17 points when all votes are counted.

11:33am In Wisconsin, with 27% in, the left-wing judge Taylor is leading the right-winger Lazar by 57.4-42.5. The New York Times estimates Taylor will win by 16 points when everything is counted. Trump won Wisconsin by 0.9 points in 2024.

11:22am With two counties (Paulding and Cobb in the southeast) yet to finalise their results, Fuller leads by 57.5-42.5 with 86% in.

11:04am With 76% in, Fuller leads by 55.6-44.4. In the five counties with complete results, there’s a swing to the Dems between 22 and 30 points from the 2024 pres election. Polls in Wisconsin have now closed.

10:42am Fuller doing it easily now, winning by 55.6-44.4 with 67% in. Polk is the second county to fully count its votes, with Fuller winning by 39 points, a 22-point swing to Dems from the 2024 pres election.

10:02am With some results from all counties in Georgia 14 in, Rep Fuller leads by 53-47 with 42% in. I expect him to expand his lead on election day votes.

9:48am The election day votes have been counted in Chattooga county, boosting Fuller’s overall lead to 51.5-48.5. There’s a 25-point shift towards Dems in that county from the 2024 pres election result, but that’s not enough for Harris to pull off an upset.

9:40am With 28% overall reporting still without results from two counties, Fuller has a tiny 50.03-49.97 lead. That’s likely to widen considerably by the final results.

9:34am Harris takes a 52-48 lead on counting in Cobb county (Atlanta suburbs). But with more rural counties still to report and the right skew of election day votes, Fuller is the clear favourite.

9:22am With 10% in, Fuller leads by 55-45. The counties that have reported so far are mostly rural, but election day votes will probably help Fuller.

9:16am With results from two rural counties in, Fuller takes the lead by 62-38 with 3% in.

9:10am In very early results from Georgia 14, Dem Harris has taken a 62-38 lead over Rep Fuller. These results will be from early voting, which skews left in the US.

8:36am There will also be a Wisconsin state Supreme Court election today, with polls closing at 11am AEST. Left-aligned judges hold a 4-3 majority, and a right-wing judge’s seat is up for election, so the left will retain its majority, but a left win would increase its majority to 5-2. Chris Taylor is the left’s candidate, while Maria Lazar represents the right. A mid-March Marquette poll gave Taylor a 30-22 lead with 47% undecided.

Polls close at 9am AEST today for a federal special election runoff in Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene’s former Georgia 14 seat after she resigned on January 5. At the March 10 jungle primary for this seat, Democrat Shawn Harris (with 37.3%) and Republican Clayton Fuller (with 34.9%) advanced to the runoff. Including other Republican and Democratic candidates, Republicans overall won by 59.7-39.8.

At the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump defeated Kamala Harris in Georgia 14 by 68.2-31.3, a 36.9-point margin. At the 33 state special elections held so far in 2026, Democrats have performed on average 10.6 points better than the Trump vs Harris margin in those same seats.

Republicans hold a 218-214 House of Representatives majority with two other vacancies. A special election in New Jersey’s 11th will occur on April 16 after Democrat Mikie Sherill was elected NJ governor in November 2025. The Republican member for California’s first died in early January, with the jungle primary to be held on June 2 and a runoff if needed on August 4.

In Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Trump’s net approval is -16.9, down 4.4 points since March 4 to a record low owing to the Iran war. In Silver’s aggregate of the generic ballot, Democrats lead Republicans by 5.4 points, with this margin little changed since January. Midterm elections occur this November.

Danish, Slovenian, German and Italian electoral events

Of the 179 Danish seats, 175 are elected in Denmark and two each in Greenland and Faroe Islands by proportional representation with a 2% threshold. At the March 24 election, the centre-left Social Democrats won 38 seats (down 12 since the 2022 election), and their vote share of 21.9% was their lowest since 1903. The two other more conservative former governing parties also lost seats, with the Green Left winning the second most seats with 20 (up five).

Overall, left-wing parties (Red Bloc) won 86 seats and right-wing parties (Blue Bloc) 78 seats, with the Moderates with 14 seats holding the balance of power. Other than a short period near the end of 2025, the Red Bloc had been ahead in the polls since the last election.

Of the 90 Slovenian seats, 88 are elected by PR in eight 11-member electorates with a national 4% threshold. The last two seats go to minorities. At the March 22 election, the governing socially liberal GS won 29 seats (down 12 since 2022), the right-wing SDS 28 (up one), the conservative NSI nine (up one), the centre-left SD six (down one), the centre-right Democrats six (new), the Left five (steady) and the COVID-skeptical Resni.ca five (up five). With 46 seats needed for a majority, the SDS is likely to be the next government.

German elections effectively use PR with a 5% threshold. At the March 22 Rhineland-Palatinate state election, the conservative CDU won 39 of the 105 seat (up eight since 2021), the centre-left SPD 32 (down seven), the populist right AfD 24 (up 15) and the Greens ten (steady). The independent FW and pro-business FDP lost their 12 combined seats by falling below the threshold. A CDU/SPD coalition is the only way to get a majority without the AfD.

On March 22-23, a referendum occurred in Italy on judicial reforms. This referendum was backed by Giorgia Meloni’s right-wing government. The referendum was defeated by a 53.2-46.8 margin.

Upcoming Hungarian election and Canadian by-elections

I previously covered next Sunday’s Hungarian election. Polls continue to be contradictory, with those aligned with the populist right governing Fidesz giving Fidesz 5-8 point leads over the conservative and pro-European Tisza, while other polls give Tisza 9-23 point leads.

The centre-left Liberals won 169 of the 343 House of Commons seats at the 2025 Canadian federal election, three short of a majority. Since then, three Conservatives have defected to the Liberals, but two Liberals in safe seats have resigned and the Terrebonne result was voided by the courts after the Liberals originally defeated the Quebec Bloc by just one vote. By-elections for the two safe Liberal seats and Terrebonne occur next Monday. If the Liberals win all three, they will have a Commons majority.

UK and other countries’ polls

How the polls are going in the UK, major western European countries and in three countries that hold elections in 2026.

Instead of an article about an international election, this article covers polls in eight countries. In the UK, the Election Maps UK national poll aggregate has the far-right Reform leading with 27.3%, followed by the Conservatives at 20.0%, Labour at 18.5%, the Liberal Democrats at 14.1% and the Greens at 13.9%.

Labour’s long slide since winning the 2024 election has continued as they’ve fallen into third place, while the Conservatives have recently regained ground from Reform. The Greens have been rising since early September.

With the UK’s first past the post system, Reform would win a narrow majority at an election held now, with 330 of the 650 House of Commons seats. Labour would win just 82 seats, the Lib Dems 77, the Conservatives 55, the Scottish National Party 46 and the Greens 26.

All recent polls have PM Keir Starmer’s net approval below -40, with a YouGov poll giving him his worst score at -61 (76% negative, 15% positive). While Reform leader Nigel Farage and Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch’s net approvals are both in double digit negative territory, they are much better than Starmer’s.

Polls in major western European countries (Germany, France, Italy and Spain)

Since the February German election, the far-right AfD has continued to rise, and is now just ahead or tied with the conservative CDU/CSU in recent polls. At the election, the CDU/CSU won 28.5% and the AfD 20.8%. There has been no recovery in the combined vote for the three main left-wing parties: the centre-left SPD, Greens and Left, with these parties polling 35-37% combined (36.8% combined at the election).

The next French presidential election will be held in April 2027 using a two-round system. Incumbent Emmanuel Macron cannot run owing to term limits. The far-right National Rally’s Marine le Pen was disqualified by a court decision, but substitute Jordan Bardella is in the mid-30s for the first round, far ahead of any other candidate. Bardella’s most likely runoff opponent is Édouard Philippe, Macron’s PM from 2017-20. Polls suggest a rough tie in this runoff scenario.

The next Italian election is due by December 2027, with 37% elected by FPTP and the rest by proportional representation. Polls have the right-wing alliance (PM Giorgia Meloni’s right-wing Brothers of Italy, the far-right League and the conservative Forza Italia) leading the left-wing alliance (the centre-left Democrats, left-wing Five Stars and the Greens) by high 40s to low 40s. The overall support for right and left parties hasn’t changed much since the 2022 election.

The next Spanish election is due by August 2027, using multi-member PR to elect the lower house. The centre-left Socialists have governed since 2018, but most polls have the conservative People’s and far-right Vox combined winning over 50%, and they will easily win a combined majority of lower house seats on these vote shares. There’s been a continued rise in Vox’s vote since the 2023 election.

Polls in countries with 2026 elections (Brazil, New Zealand and Israel)

Legislative and presidential elections will be held in Brazil in October, with the president elected using a two-round system. Centre-left incumbent Lula is far ahead in the first round, with Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former far-right president Jair Bolsonaro (now in jail), his most likely runoff opponent. Most polls have Lula beating Bolsonaro Jr in the runoff, with a closer hypothetical race against the conservative Tarcísio de Freitas.

The New Zealand election is due by next December, with parties either needing at least 5% of the party vote or a single-member electorate to be allocated a proportional share of seats. Polls have the three right-wing parties combined (National, ACT and NZ First) narrowly leading the three left-wing parties (Labour, the Greens and Maori). The gap between the blocs closed in early 2025, but has widened again recently.

The Israeli election is due by October using national PR with a 3.25% threshold. In most polls, PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition has about 50 of the 120 Knesset seats, well below the 61 needed for a majority. However, the opposition bloc also doesn’t have a majority, with unaligned parties (mainly Arab) having the remaining seats. The Netanyahu-aligned Filber and Direct Polls have a right-wing majority.

Canadian federal Liberal leadership election live

Mark Carney very likely to replace Justin Trudeau as Liberal leader and Prime Minister, as the Liberals surge back in Canadian federal polls.

12:07pm Tuesday Wikipedia shows the popular votes as well as the points system used (100 points for each of the 343 electorates, for a total of 34,300). Carney won 86.8% of the membership vote out of nearly 152,000 total votes and 85.9% of the points.

9:37am Carney has been elected Liberal leader and will replace Trudeau as PM, after winning a first round majority. Carney won 85.9% of the vote, a bigger share than Trudeau in 2013 (a bit over 80%).

9:04am Monday The CBC has a live blog on the Liberal convention happening now that will announce the winner.

I covered today’s Canadian federal Liberal leadership election in late January and mid-February. Preferential voting is used, with each of Canada’s 343 electorates having 100 points and those points assigned in proportion to votes in that electorate. With a total of 34,300 points, 17,151 are needed for a majority. This system skews towards electorates with relatively few registered Liberal voters.

Voting commenced on February 26 and ends at 6am AEDT Monday, with results to be announced in Ottawa. The winner will replace Justin Trudeau as Liberal leader and PM. Parliament, where the Liberals don’t hold a majority, will resume on March 23 after it was prorogued for the leadership election. The next Canadian federal election is due by October, but it could be held earlier.

Mark Carney, former governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, had 68% among Liberal supporters in a February Léger poll, but a Mainstreet poll gave him only a 43-31 lead over former deputy PM Chrystia Freeland. Carney also has a big lead in endorsements.

All Canadian general elections use first past the post. The CBC Poll Tracker was updated Wednesday. The Conservatives lead the centre-left Liberals by 40.3-30.8, with 14.4% for the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP), 6.8% for the left-wing separatist Quebec Bloc (BQ) (29.1% in Quebec), 4.2% for the Greens and 2.5% for the far-right People’s. Seet estimates are 171 of 343 Conservatives, one short of a majority, 125 Liberals, 31 BQ, 14 NDP and two Greens.

Éric Grenier’s commentary said that polls taken in the last week are not showing the Liberal surge that was seen previously, with a Léger poll giving the Conservatives a 13-point lead, up from three points. However, polls used by the Tracker don’t include Carney in the readout; if they did it would be closer. An EKOS poll that is not yet included in the Tracker gave the Liberals a five-point lead, up from one in the previous EKOS poll.

Conservatives easily win third successive term in Ontario

Ontario is Canadia’s most populous province. At the February 27 election that was held about 15 months early, the Conservatives won 80 of the 124 seats (down three since the 2022 election), the NDP 27 seats (down four), the Liberals 14 (up six) and the Greens two (steady). Conservative Doug Ford became the first premier to win three successive majorities since 1959.

Vote shares were 43.0% Conservatives (up 2.1%), 30.0% Liberals (up 6.1%), 18.6% NDP (down 5.2%) and 4.8% Greens (down 1.1%). Despite the third place in popular votes over 11% behind the Liberals, the NDP won 13 more seats than the Liberals.

US, Austria and Germany

Sadly, FiveThirtyEight has been shut down by US ABC news. However, Nate Silver now has an aggregate of Donald Trump’s approval in US national polls. Trump is at net +0.8 (48.1% approve, 47.3% disapprove). At this stage of his presidency, Trump’s net approval is worse than for any other president going back to Truman, except Trump’s first term.

Special elections (by-elections in Australia) will occur on April 1 in two federal House Republican-held Florida seats. At the 2024 election, Republicans won both these seats by 32-33 points. Republicans hold the House by 218-215, so winning both these special elections will return them to the 220-215 result in 2024.

Austria uses proportional representation with a 4% threshold. At the September 29 election, the far-right FPÖ won 57 of the 183 seats (up 26 since 2019), the conservative ÖVP 51 (down 20), the centre-left SPÖ 41 (up one), the liberal NEOS 18 (up three) and the Greens 16 (down ten). A coalition government of ÖVP, SPÖ and NEOS was formed on March 2, five months after the election.

A week after the February 23 German federal election, where the centre-left SPD finished third behind the far-right AfD and conservative CDU/CSU, a state election was held in Hamburg using PR with a 5% threshold. The SPD won 45 of the 121 seats (down nine since 2020), the CDU 26 (up 11), the Greens 25 (down eight), the Left 15 (up two) and the AfD ten (up three). Despite the losses, the SPD and Greens easily won enough seats for a combined majority.

German election live

Live coverage from Monday morning of today’s German election, where polls remain bleak for the overall left, but the Left party surges above 5%.

Results wrap

While it was expected from pre-election polls, this was a dismal performance for the major left-wing party, the SPD, to lag in third place behind both the AfD and CDU/CSU. The combined vote share for the three coalition parties (SPD, Greens and FDP) was just 32.3% (down 19.5% on these parties’ combined vote in 2021).

Conservative to far-right parties (the CDU/CSU and AfD) won a combined 49.3% (up 14.8%). If the Left party is grouped with SPD and Greens to form an overall left, they won a combined 36.8% (down 8.5%).

With BSW missing out on parliamentary representation by a hair and FDP by a bit more, 13.9% of votes were cast for parties that didn’t qualify. That meant qualifying parties were boosted in percentage of parliamentary seats won relative to their vote shares. In parliament, the CDU/CSU and AfD won a combined 57% of seats to 43% for the SPD, Greens and Left. The likely governing coalition between the CDU/CSU and SPD will have 52% of seats.

Live Commentary

11:55am Those final two seats are in, and BSW has missed out, provisionally winning 4.97%, just short of the 5% threshold. This will give CDU/CSU and SPD a combined 328 of the 630 seats, over the 316 needed for a majority.

11:34am After 297 of 299, BSW has dropped to 4.98%. They will need something from the final two electorates to make it.

11:19am After 290 of 299, the BSW drops back to 4.99%, fractionally below the 5% threshold. So now CDU/CSU and SPD would have a majority.

11:11am After 284 of 299, the BSW has 5.01%!

10:57am After 274 of 299, the BSW is on 5.03%. If that holds, they will win 35 seats, and CDU/CSU plus SPD would only have a combined 309 of the 630 seats, seven short of a majority. In this case, the Greens would also be needed to provide a majority.

10:16am After 234 of 299 electorates, 28.8% CDU/CSU (up 4.3%), 20.7% AfD (up 10.3%), 16.5% SPD (down 9.4%), 11.4% Greens (down 3.0%), 8.7% Left (up 3.9%), 4.9% BSW (new) and 4.3% FDP (down 6.9%). Decision Desk HQ now projects the CDU/CSU will win 211 of the 630 seats, the AfD 151, the SPD 120, the Greens 83, the Left 64 and BSW and the FDP won’t enter parliament. If this is the result, the CDU/CSU plus AfD or CDU/CSU plus SPD will have enough seats for a majority (316 seats).

9:14am After 175 of 299 electorates, the BSW is on 5.01%, just over the 5% threshold, while the FDP remains at 4.1%. So the FDP is likely to lose parliamentary representation while it’s a nailbiter for BSW.

8:51am After 137 of 299 electorates, 29.7% CDU/CSU (up 4.4%), 21.5% AfD (up 10.6%), 15.6% SPD (down 9.3%), 10.9% Greens (down 2.7%), 8.2% Left (up 3.8%), 4.9% BSW (new) and 4.1% FDP (down 6.7%).

7:23am After six of 299 electorates declared, the CDU/CSU has 35.4% (up 4.8% on these seats in 2021), the AfD 25.7% (up 13.0%), the SPD 11.7% (down 9.0%), the Greens 6.6% (down 1.7%), the Left 5.1% (up 2.0%), the BSW 3.9% and the FDP 3.3% (down 6.1%).

6:38am Monday The Guardian’s live blog has exit poll results. The CDU/CSU has 28.6%, the AfD 20.4%, the SPD 16.3%, the Greens 12.3%, the Left 8.5%, the BSW 4.9% and the FDP 4.7%. We will need to wait for results to find out whether BSW and/or the FDP clear the 5% threshold to win seats. The exit polls are close to the pre-election polls.

I covered today’s German federal election in late December, late January and eight days ago. To qualify for a proportional allocation of the 630 seats, parties must either win at least 5% of the national “party” vote, or win at least three of the 299 single-member electorates, which are elected by first past the post. After there were 735 total MPs in 2021 owing to “overhang” and “leveling” seats, reforms will reduce parliament’s size to 630 MPs.

Polls close at 4am AEDT Monday. Exit polls will be released once polls close. The first official results will take at least a few hours because all votes in an electorate need to be counted before any results for that electorate are officially declared. The final make-up of parliament will probably not be determined until Monday afternoon AEDT.

Opinion polls give the conservative CDU/CSU about 29%, the far-right AfD 21%, the centre-left SPD 15%, the Greens 13%, the Left 7%, the economically left but socially conservative BSW 4.5% and the pro-business FDP 4.5%. The CSU only contests elections in Bavaria, while the CDU contests in all other German states. Like Australia’s Liberal and National parties, the CDU and CSU are usually added together in polls.

The German election website Zweitstimme.org has probabilities for each party entering parliament that factor in both the 5% threshold and winning three electorates. The Left has a 97% chance to enter parliament, BSW 24% and the FDP 14%. If the parties near 5% don’t make it into parliament, seats they would have won are reassigned to parties that clear the threshold. So whether a combination of parties will be enough for a majority (316 seats) may depend on how many parties make it into parliament.

According to Zweitstimme, there’s a 100% chance of the CDU/CSU, SPD and Greens winning a combined majority, a 91% majority chance for CDU/CSU and AfD, a 61% chance for CDU/CSU and SPD and a 34% chance for CDU/CSU and Greens. The CDU/CSU has said it won’t form a government with the AfD.

This election will be seven months early owing to a breakdown in the governing coalition of SPD, Greens and FDP. Polls have been bleak for left-wing parties generally since July 2023, when the AfD surged ahead of the SPD into second place behind the CDU/CSU. The Left party had looked doomed to lose parliamentary representation after BSW split from it in early 2024, but they have surged above the 5% threshold in recent weeks, while BSW has slid below.

US: Trump’s ratings and 2024 polls’ performance

The FiveThirtyEight aggregate of US national polls gives Donald Trump a +1.5 net approval rating, down from +3.4 eight days ago. Currently, 48.5% approve and 47.0% disapprove of Trump’s performance.

Nate Silver has a detailed review of the 2024 election polls. The polls did better than in most previous presidential elections in terms of error between the polls’ estimates and the election results, but for the third presidential election in a row they understated Trump’s support. After an excellent performance in 2024, AtlasIntel is now Silver’s top-rated pollster, while Selzer went down after blowing its final Iowa poll.

German election minus eight days

Polls remain bleak for the left shortly before the February 23 election. Also covered: the Canadian Liberal leadership contest, federal election polls and provincial elections.

I covered the February 23 German federal election in late December and late January. To qualify for a proportional allocation of the 630 seats, parties must either win at least 5% of the national “party” vote, or win at least three single-member electorates, which are elected by first past the post,

Polls give the conservative CDU/CSU about 30%, the far-right AfD 20%, the centre-left SPD 15%, the Greens 13%, the Left 6%, the economically left but socially conservative BSW 4.5% and the pro-business FDP 4%. In the last few weeks, there has been some movement to the Left and against BSW, so the Left is likely to clear the 5% threshold, while BSW may fall short.

The SPD, Greens and FDP had formed a coalition government after the September 2021 election, but this coalition broke down in early November, leading to this election being held seven months early. The CDU/CSU has said it won’t form a government with the AfD, but they may need both the SPD and Greens to form a government without the AfD.

Canadian Liberal leadership and federal polls

A new leader of the governing centre-left Liberals to replace Justin Trudeau will be elected on March 9. Preferential voting is used, with each of Canada’s electorates having 100 points and those points assigned in proportion to votes in that electorate. The overwhelming favourite to be next Liberal leader and PM is former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor Mark Carney. Carney has surged from 27% among Liberal supporters in the first Léger poll on January 13 to 57% on January 25 and 68% on February 10.

All Canadian general elections use FPTP. The federal election is due by October, though it could be held earlier if the Liberals are defeated after parliament resumes on March 23. The CBC Poll Tracker was last updated Monday, and it has the Conservatives leading the Liberals by 42.4-25.5 with 16.4% for the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP), 8.1% for the separatist left-wing Quebec Bloc (BQ) (33.3% in Quebec), 4.1% for the Greens and 2.8% for the far-right People’s.

On these vote shares, the Conservatives are expected to win 205 of the 343 seats, the Liberals 79, the BQ 39 and NDP 18, with the Conservatives well above the 172 needed for a majority. In the last month, the Liberals’ vote share has increased from a low of 20.1% and the Conservatives have dropped from a high of 44.8%.

Conservative landslide likely at Ontario election

Ontario is Canada’s most populous province. Conservative Premier Doug Ford called an election for February 27, about 15 months early. The Writ’s current Ontario forecast is for the Conservatives to win 97 of the 124 seats on 44.6% of votes, the Liberals 14 seats on 28.3%, the NDP ten seats on 17.9% and the Greens two seats on 6.2%. This would be the Conservatives’ third successive term.

At the November 26 Nova Scotia election, the incumbent Conservatives were easily re-elected with 43 of the 55 seats (up 12 since 2021). The NDP won nine seats (up three) and the Liberals two (down 15). Vote shares were 52.5% Conservatives (up 14.1%), 22.2% NDP (up 1.2%) and 22.7% Liberals (down 14.0%).

US, UK and Ireland

In the FiveThirtyEight aggregate, Donald Trump’s net approval in US national polls is currently +3.4, with 49.0% approving and 45.7% disapproving. His net approval has dropped from a peak of +8.2 at the start of his term.

The far-right Reform has surged into a tie for the lead with Labour in UK national polls with the Conservatives further behind. The Find Out Now poll, which has a pro-Reform lean, has Reform six points ahead of Labour in its latest poll. Keir Starmer’s net favourability is -33 or worse in most recent polls.

At the November 29 Irish election, the two main conservative parties (Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael) won a combined 86 of the 174 seats, two short of a majority. On January 15, a coalition government was agreed between these two parties and nine of the 16 independents. Fianna Fáil’s Micheál Martin was elected Taoiseach (PM) after winning a parliamentary vote on January 23.

German election minus four weeks

Also covered: the Canadian Liberal leadership election after Justin Trudeau’s resignation. Polls in both Germany and Canada are bleak for the left.

I covered the February 23 German federal election in late December. To qualify for a proportional allocation of the 630 seats, parties must either win at least 5% of the national “party” vote, or win at least three single-member electorates, which are elected by first past the post,

At the previous German election in September 2021, the centre-left SPD won 25.7% of the vote, the conservative CDU/CSU 24.1%, the Greens 14.7%, the pro-business FDP 11.4%, the far-right AfD 10.4% and the Left 4.9% (keeping a proportional entitlement by winning three single-member electorates). After 16 years of CDU/CSU-led coalition governments, the SPD, Greens and FDP formed a coalition government.

In November, this government broke down and this election will occur seven months early. Current polls give the CDU/CSU about 30%, the AfD 20%, the SPD 17%, the Greens 14%, the new economically left but socially conservative BSW 5%, the FDP 4% and the Left 4%. The CDU/CSU will likely need support from the SPD to avoid governing with the AfD.

Conservatives have large lead in Canadian polls

On January 6, Justin Trudeau announced he would resign as Canadian Liberal leader and PM once a new Liberal leader had been elected. As the Liberals don’t have a majority in parliament, it has been prorogued until March 24 to allow the Liberal leadership to be resolved.

The leadership election will occur on March 9 among registered Liberals using preferential voting. Each of Canada’s seats gets 100 points that are allocated proportionally according to votes in that seat. A majority of all points is needed to win. This system will skew results in favour of seats where there are relatively few Liberals.

In the lead-up to Trudeau’s resignation announcement, the Conservatives had gained three seats from the Liberals at by-elections on big swings, and Chrystia Freeland, deputy PM and minister for finance, had resigned. The leadership election is likely to be a contest between Freeland and Mark Carney, a former governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England.

The Canadian federal election is due by October, but it will be held early if the Liberals are defeated when parliament resumes on March 24. There are 343 seats elected by FPTP, so it takes 172 for a majority. At the September 2021 election, the centre-left Liberals won 160 of the then 338 seats on 32.6% of the national vote, the Conservatives 119 on 33.7%, the separatist left-wing Quebec Bloc (BQ) 32 on 7.6% (32.1% in Quebec), the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) 25 on 17.8% and the far-right People’s zero on 4.9%.

The CBC Poll Tracker has the Conservatives at 44.8%, the Liberals at 21.9%, the NDP at 17.6%, the BQ at 8.2% (35.3% in Quebec), the Greens at 3.8% and the People’s at 2.6%. The Conservatives are estimated as winning 225 seats to 53 Liberals, 41 BQ and 22 NDP. However, this tracker was last updated on Monday, and an EKOS poll that was completed Thursday had the Conservatives just 3.8 points ahead of the Liberals, though EKOS has had better results for the Liberals than other pollsters.

Trudeau promised to reform Canada’s electoral system before he won the October 2015 election, but did nothing. FPTP assists the Conservatives in Canada, who are the only significant right-wing party.

US and Croatia

On Monday, Donald Trump began his four-year term as US president, replacing Joe Biden after the November election. Biden’s final ratings as president in the FiveThirtyEight tracker was a net approval of -20.0 (57.0% disapprove, 37.0% approve). FiveThirtyEight has presidential approval charts since Harry Truman (president from 1945-53). Biden’s final ratings are worse than for any other president who served four years or more at this stage of their presidency except Jimmy Carter.

FiveThirtyEight doesn’t yet have an aggregate for Trump’s approval, but most early Trump polls have him at net positive double digits. Trump’s favourable ratings have improved since the election, and he’s now at net -1.6 in FiveThirtyEight (48.2% unfavourable, 46.5% favourable).

The centre-left incumbent easily won the January 12 Croatian presidential runoff election, defeating his conservative opponent by a 74.7-25.3 margin. However, the conservatives won the April 2024 Croatian parliamentary election.

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