German politics – The Poll Bludger

Canadian federal Liberal leadership election live

Mark Carney very likely to replace Justin Trudeau as Liberal leader and Prime Minister, as the Liberals surge back in Canadian federal polls.

12:07pm Tuesday Wikipedia shows the popular votes as well as the points system used (100 points for each of the 343 electorates, for a total of 34,300). Carney won 86.8% of the membership vote out of nearly 152,000 total votes and 85.9% of the points.

9:37am Carney has been elected Liberal leader and will replace Trudeau as PM, after winning a first round majority. Carney won 85.9% of the vote, a bigger share than Trudeau in 2013 (a bit over 80%).

9:04am Monday The CBC has a live blog on the Liberal convention happening now that will announce the winner.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

I covered today’s Canadian federal Liberal leadership election in late January and mid-February. Preferential voting is used, with each of Canada’s 343 electorates having 100 points and those points assigned in proportion to votes in that electorate. With a total of 34,300 points, 17,151 are needed for a majority. This system skews towards electorates with relatively few registered Liberal voters.

Voting commenced on February 26 and ends at 6am AEDT Monday, with results to be announced in Ottawa. The winner will replace Justin Trudeau as Liberal leader and PM. Parliament, where the Liberals don’t hold a majority, will resume on March 23 after it was prorogued for the leadership election. The next Canadian federal election is due by October, but it could be held earlier.

Mark Carney, former governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, had 68% among Liberal supporters in a February Léger poll, but a Mainstreet poll gave him only a 43-31 lead over former deputy PM Chrystia Freeland. Carney also has a big lead in endorsements.

All Canadian general elections use first past the post. The CBC Poll Tracker was updated Wednesday. The Conservatives lead the centre-left Liberals by 40.3-30.8, with 14.4% for the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP), 6.8% for the left-wing separatist Quebec Bloc (BQ) (29.1% in Quebec), 4.2% for the Greens and 2.5% for the far-right People’s. Seet estimates are 171 of 343 Conservatives, one short of a majority, 125 Liberals, 31 BQ, 14 NDP and two Greens.

Éric Grenier’s commentary said that polls taken in the last week are not showing the Liberal surge that was seen previously, with a Léger poll giving the Conservatives a 13-point lead, up from three points. However, polls used by the Tracker don’t include Carney in the readout; if they did it would be closer. An EKOS poll that is not yet included in the Tracker gave the Liberals a five-point lead, up from one in the previous EKOS poll.

Conservatives easily win third successive term in Ontario

Ontario is Canadia’s most populous province. At the February 27 election that was held about 15 months early, the Conservatives won 80 of the 124 seats (down three since the 2022 election), the NDP 27 seats (down four), the Liberals 14 (up six) and the Greens two (steady). Conservative Doug Ford became the first premier to win three successive majorities since 1959.

Vote shares were 43.0% Conservatives (up 2.1%), 30.0% Liberals (up 6.1%), 18.6% NDP (down 5.2%) and 4.8% Greens (down 1.1%). Despite the third place in popular votes over 11% behind the Liberals, the NDP won 13 more seats than the Liberals.

US, Austria and Germany

Sadly, FiveThirtyEight has been shut down by US ABC news. However, Nate Silver now has an aggregate of Donald Trump’s approval in US national polls. Trump is at net +0.8 (48.1% approve, 47.3% disapprove). At this stage of his presidency, Trump’s net approval is worse than for any other president going back to Truman, except Trump’s first term.

Special elections (by-elections in Australia) will occur on April 1 in two federal House Republican-held Florida seats. At the 2024 election, Republicans won both these seats by 32-33 points. Republicans hold the House by 218-215, so winning both these special elections will return them to the 220-215 result in 2024.

Austria uses proportional representation with a 4% threshold. At the September 29 election, the far-right FPÖ won 57 of the 183 seats (up 26 since 2019), the conservative ÖVP 51 (down 20), the centre-left SPÖ 41 (up one), the liberal NEOS 18 (up three) and the Greens 16 (down ten). A coalition government of ÖVP, SPÖ and NEOS was formed on March 2, five months after the election.

A week after the February 23 German federal election, where the centre-left SPD finished third behind the far-right AfD and conservative CDU/CSU, a state election was held in Hamburg using PR with a 5% threshold. The SPD won 45 of the 121 seats (down nine since 2020), the CDU 26 (up 11), the Greens 25 (down eight), the Left 15 (up two) and the AfD ten (up three). Despite the losses, the SPD and Greens easily won enough seats for a combined majority.

German election live

Live coverage from Monday morning of today’s German election, where polls remain bleak for the overall left, but the Left party surges above 5%.

Results wrap

While it was expected from pre-election polls, this was a dismal performance for the major left-wing party, the SPD, to lag in third place behind both the AfD and CDU/CSU. The combined vote share for the three coalition parties (SPD, Greens and FDP) was just 32.3% (down 19.5% on these parties’ combined vote in 2021).

Conservative to far-right parties (the CDU/CSU and AfD) won a combined 49.3% (up 14.8%). If the Left party is grouped with SPD and Greens to form an overall left, they won a combined 36.8% (down 8.5%).

With BSW missing out on parliamentary representation by a hair and FDP by a bit more, 13.9% of votes were cast for parties that didn’t qualify. That meant qualifying parties were boosted in percentage of parliamentary seats won relative to their vote shares. In parliament, the CDU/CSU and AfD won a combined 57% of seats to 43% for the SPD, Greens and Left. The likely governing coalition between the CDU/CSU and SPD will have 52% of seats.

Live Commentary

11:55am Those final two seats are in, and BSW has missed out, provisionally winning 4.97%, just short of the 5% threshold. This will give CDU/CSU and SPD a combined 328 of the 630 seats, over the 316 needed for a majority.

11:34am After 297 of 299, BSW has dropped to 4.98%. They will need something from the final two electorates to make it.

11:19am After 290 of 299, the BSW drops back to 4.99%, fractionally below the 5% threshold. So now CDU/CSU and SPD would have a majority.

11:11am After 284 of 299, the BSW has 5.01%!

10:57am After 274 of 299, the BSW is on 5.03%. If that holds, they will win 35 seats, and CDU/CSU plus SPD would only have a combined 309 of the 630 seats, seven short of a majority. In this case, the Greens would also be needed to provide a majority.

10:16am After 234 of 299 electorates, 28.8% CDU/CSU (up 4.3%), 20.7% AfD (up 10.3%), 16.5% SPD (down 9.4%), 11.4% Greens (down 3.0%), 8.7% Left (up 3.9%), 4.9% BSW (new) and 4.3% FDP (down 6.9%). Decision Desk HQ now projects the CDU/CSU will win 211 of the 630 seats, the AfD 151, the SPD 120, the Greens 83, the Left 64 and BSW and the FDP won’t enter parliament. If this is the result, the CDU/CSU plus AfD or CDU/CSU plus SPD will have enough seats for a majority (316 seats).

9:14am After 175 of 299 electorates, the BSW is on 5.01%, just over the 5% threshold, while the FDP remains at 4.1%. So the FDP is likely to lose parliamentary representation while it’s a nailbiter for BSW.

8:51am After 137 of 299 electorates, 29.7% CDU/CSU (up 4.4%), 21.5% AfD (up 10.6%), 15.6% SPD (down 9.3%), 10.9% Greens (down 2.7%), 8.2% Left (up 3.8%), 4.9% BSW (new) and 4.1% FDP (down 6.7%).

7:23am After six of 299 electorates declared, the CDU/CSU has 35.4% (up 4.8% on these seats in 2021), the AfD 25.7% (up 13.0%), the SPD 11.7% (down 9.0%), the Greens 6.6% (down 1.7%), the Left 5.1% (up 2.0%), the BSW 3.9% and the FDP 3.3% (down 6.1%).

6:38am Monday The Guardian’s live blog has exit poll results. The CDU/CSU has 28.6%, the AfD 20.4%, the SPD 16.3%, the Greens 12.3%, the Left 8.5%, the BSW 4.9% and the FDP 4.7%. We will need to wait for results to find out whether BSW and/or the FDP clear the 5% threshold to win seats. The exit polls are close to the pre-election polls.

I covered today’s German federal election in late December, late January and eight days ago. To qualify for a proportional allocation of the 630 seats, parties must either win at least 5% of the national “party” vote, or win at least three of the 299 single-member electorates, which are elected by first past the post. After there were 735 total MPs in 2021 owing to “overhang” and “leveling” seats, reforms will reduce parliament’s size to 630 MPs.

Polls close at 4am AEDT Monday. Exit polls will be released once polls close. The first official results will take at least a few hours because all votes in an electorate need to be counted before any results for that electorate are officially declared. The final make-up of parliament will probably not be determined until Monday afternoon AEDT.

Opinion polls give the conservative CDU/CSU about 29%, the far-right AfD 21%, the centre-left SPD 15%, the Greens 13%, the Left 7%, the economically left but socially conservative BSW 4.5% and the pro-business FDP 4.5%. The CSU only contests elections in Bavaria, while the CDU contests in all other German states. Like Australia’s Liberal and National parties, the CDU and CSU are usually added together in polls.

The German election website Zweitstimme.org has probabilities for each party entering parliament that factor in both the 5% threshold and winning three electorates. The Left has a 97% chance to enter parliament, BSW 24% and the FDP 14%. If the parties near 5% don’t make it into parliament, seats they would have won are reassigned to parties that clear the threshold. So whether a combination of parties will be enough for a majority (316 seats) may depend on how many parties make it into parliament.

According to Zweitstimme, there’s a 100% chance of the CDU/CSU, SPD and Greens winning a combined majority, a 91% majority chance for CDU/CSU and AfD, a 61% chance for CDU/CSU and SPD and a 34% chance for CDU/CSU and Greens. The CDU/CSU has said it won’t form a government with the AfD.

This election will be seven months early owing to a breakdown in the governing coalition of SPD, Greens and FDP. Polls have been bleak for left-wing parties generally since July 2023, when the AfD surged ahead of the SPD into second place behind the CDU/CSU. The Left party had looked doomed to lose parliamentary representation after BSW split from it in early 2024, but they have surged above the 5% threshold in recent weeks, while BSW has slid below.

US: Trump’s ratings and 2024 polls’ performance

The FiveThirtyEight aggregate of US national polls gives Donald Trump a +1.5 net approval rating, down from +3.4 eight days ago. Currently, 48.5% approve and 47.0% disapprove of Trump’s performance.

Nate Silver has a detailed review of the 2024 election polls. The polls did better than in most previous presidential elections in terms of error between the polls’ estimates and the election results, but for the third presidential election in a row they understated Trump’s support. After an excellent performance in 2024, AtlasIntel is now Silver’s top-rated pollster, while Selzer went down after blowing its final Iowa poll.

German election minus eight days

Polls remain bleak for the left shortly before the February 23 election. Also covered: the Canadian Liberal leadership contest, federal election polls and provincial elections.

I covered the February 23 German federal election in late December and late January. To qualify for a proportional allocation of the 630 seats, parties must either win at least 5% of the national “party” vote, or win at least three single-member electorates, which are elected by first past the post,

Polls give the conservative CDU/CSU about 30%, the far-right AfD 20%, the centre-left SPD 15%, the Greens 13%, the Left 6%, the economically left but socially conservative BSW 4.5% and the pro-business FDP 4%. In the last few weeks, there has been some movement to the Left and against BSW, so the Left is likely to clear the 5% threshold, while BSW may fall short.

The SPD, Greens and FDP had formed a coalition government after the September 2021 election, but this coalition broke down in early November, leading to this election being held seven months early. The CDU/CSU has said it won’t form a government with the AfD, but they may need both the SPD and Greens to form a government without the AfD.

Canadian Liberal leadership and federal polls

A new leader of the governing centre-left Liberals to replace Justin Trudeau will be elected on March 9. Preferential voting is used, with each of Canada’s electorates having 100 points and those points assigned in proportion to votes in that electorate. The overwhelming favourite to be next Liberal leader and PM is former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor Mark Carney. Carney has surged from 27% among Liberal supporters in the first Léger poll on January 13 to 57% on January 25 and 68% on February 10.

All Canadian general elections use FPTP. The federal election is due by October, though it could be held earlier if the Liberals are defeated after parliament resumes on March 23. The CBC Poll Tracker was last updated Monday, and it has the Conservatives leading the Liberals by 42.4-25.5 with 16.4% for the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP), 8.1% for the separatist left-wing Quebec Bloc (BQ) (33.3% in Quebec), 4.1% for the Greens and 2.8% for the far-right People’s.

On these vote shares, the Conservatives are expected to win 205 of the 343 seats, the Liberals 79, the BQ 39 and NDP 18, with the Conservatives well above the 172 needed for a majority. In the last month, the Liberals’ vote share has increased from a low of 20.1% and the Conservatives have dropped from a high of 44.8%.

Conservative landslide likely at Ontario election

Ontario is Canada’s most populous province. Conservative Premier Doug Ford called an election for February 27, about 15 months early. The Writ’s current Ontario forecast is for the Conservatives to win 97 of the 124 seats on 44.6% of votes, the Liberals 14 seats on 28.3%, the NDP ten seats on 17.9% and the Greens two seats on 6.2%. This would be the Conservatives’ third successive term.

At the November 26 Nova Scotia election, the incumbent Conservatives were easily re-elected with 43 of the 55 seats (up 12 since 2021). The NDP won nine seats (up three) and the Liberals two (down 15). Vote shares were 52.5% Conservatives (up 14.1%), 22.2% NDP (up 1.2%) and 22.7% Liberals (down 14.0%).

US, UK and Ireland

In the FiveThirtyEight aggregate, Donald Trump’s net approval in US national polls is currently +3.4, with 49.0% approving and 45.7% disapproving. His net approval has dropped from a peak of +8.2 at the start of his term.

The far-right Reform has surged into a tie for the lead with Labour in UK national polls with the Conservatives further behind. The Find Out Now poll, which has a pro-Reform lean, has Reform six points ahead of Labour in its latest poll. Keir Starmer’s net favourability is -33 or worse in most recent polls.

At the November 29 Irish election, the two main conservative parties (Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael) won a combined 86 of the 174 seats, two short of a majority. On January 15, a coalition government was agreed between these two parties and nine of the 16 independents. Fianna Fáil’s Micheál Martin was elected Taoiseach (PM) after winning a parliamentary vote on January 23.

German election minus four weeks

Also covered: the Canadian Liberal leadership election after Justin Trudeau’s resignation. Polls in both Germany and Canada are bleak for the left.

I covered the February 23 German federal election in late December. To qualify for a proportional allocation of the 630 seats, parties must either win at least 5% of the national “party” vote, or win at least three single-member electorates, which are elected by first past the post,

At the previous German election in September 2021, the centre-left SPD won 25.7% of the vote, the conservative CDU/CSU 24.1%, the Greens 14.7%, the pro-business FDP 11.4%, the far-right AfD 10.4% and the Left 4.9% (keeping a proportional entitlement by winning three single-member electorates). After 16 years of CDU/CSU-led coalition governments, the SPD, Greens and FDP formed a coalition government.

In November, this government broke down and this election will occur seven months early. Current polls give the CDU/CSU about 30%, the AfD 20%, the SPD 17%, the Greens 14%, the new economically left but socially conservative BSW 5%, the FDP 4% and the Left 4%. The CDU/CSU will likely need support from the SPD to avoid governing with the AfD.

Conservatives have large lead in Canadian polls

On January 6, Justin Trudeau announced he would resign as Canadian Liberal leader and PM once a new Liberal leader had been elected. As the Liberals don’t have a majority in parliament, it has been prorogued until March 24 to allow the Liberal leadership to be resolved.

The leadership election will occur on March 9 among registered Liberals using preferential voting. Each of Canada’s seats gets 100 points that are allocated proportionally according to votes in that seat. A majority of all points is needed to win. This system will skew results in favour of seats where there are relatively few Liberals.

In the lead-up to Trudeau’s resignation announcement, the Conservatives had gained three seats from the Liberals at by-elections on big swings, and Chrystia Freeland, deputy PM and minister for finance, had resigned. The leadership election is likely to be a contest between Freeland and Mark Carney, a former governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England.

The Canadian federal election is due by October, but it will be held early if the Liberals are defeated when parliament resumes on March 24. There are 343 seats elected by FPTP, so it takes 172 for a majority. At the September 2021 election, the centre-left Liberals won 160 of the then 338 seats on 32.6% of the national vote, the Conservatives 119 on 33.7%, the separatist left-wing Quebec Bloc (BQ) 32 on 7.6% (32.1% in Quebec), the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) 25 on 17.8% and the far-right People’s zero on 4.9%.

The CBC Poll Tracker has the Conservatives at 44.8%, the Liberals at 21.9%, the NDP at 17.6%, the BQ at 8.2% (35.3% in Quebec), the Greens at 3.8% and the People’s at 2.6%. The Conservatives are estimated as winning 225 seats to 53 Liberals, 41 BQ and 22 NDP. However, this tracker was last updated on Monday, and an EKOS poll that was completed Thursday had the Conservatives just 3.8 points ahead of the Liberals, though EKOS has had better results for the Liberals than other pollsters.

Trudeau promised to reform Canada’s electoral system before he won the October 2015 election, but did nothing. FPTP assists the Conservatives in Canada, who are the only significant right-wing party.

US and Croatia

On Monday, Donald Trump began his four-year term as US president, replacing Joe Biden after the November election. Biden’s final ratings as president in the FiveThirtyEight tracker was a net approval of -20.0 (57.0% disapprove, 37.0% approve). FiveThirtyEight has presidential approval charts since Harry Truman (president from 1945-53). Biden’s final ratings are worse than for any other president who served four years or more at this stage of their presidency except Jimmy Carter.

FiveThirtyEight doesn’t yet have an aggregate for Trump’s approval, but most early Trump polls have him at net positive double digits. Trump’s favourable ratings have improved since the election, and he’s now at net -1.6 in FiveThirtyEight (48.2% unfavourable, 46.5% favourable).

The centre-left incumbent easily won the January 12 Croatian presidential runoff election, defeating his conservative opponent by a 74.7-25.3 margin. However, the conservatives won the April 2024 Croatian parliamentary election.

German election minus two months

Left-wing parties face a dismal result at the February 23 German elections. Also covered: South Korean and French continuing crises, and a wrap of recent elections.

In early November, the German federal governing coalition of centre-left SPD, Greens and pro-business FDP collapsed owing to a split with the FDP. In mid-December, the government was defeated in a no-confidence vote, with new elections to be held on February 23, about seven months before they were due.

Germany uses the Mixed-Member Proportional (MMP) system. Voters cast two votes: one for their local MP elected by first past the post, and one for their party. The party vote determines the number of seats each party is entitled to. After the 2021 election, there were 736 MPs owing to “overhangs”. Electoral reforms will limit the next parliament to 630 MPs.

To qualify for a proportional allocation of seats, parties must either win at least 5% of the national vote or three single-member electorates.

Polling has been dismal for the coalition parties since mid-2023, when the far-right AfD moved into second place ahead of the SPD. Current polls have the conservative CDU/CSU at about 30%, the AfD at 19%, the SPD at 16%, the Greens at 13% and the economically left but socially conservative BSW at 6%. The FDP is likely to miss the 5% threshold.

While the CDU/CSU and AfD are likely to easily win a combined majority of seats, the CDU/CSU has said it won’t govern in coalition with the AfD. But forming a government without the AfD is likely to require support from either the SPD or the Greens.

South Korean and French updates

On December 14, the South Korean parliament impeached conservative President Yoon Suk Yeol over his December 3 declaration of martial law by a 204-85 vote, just above the 200 needed for a two-thirds majority of the 300 MPs. The opposition centre-left Democrats and allies have a 192-108 majority, so 12 MPs from Yoon’s People Power Party voted for impeachment. This vote came a week after the first impeachment vote failed owing to a PPP boycott.

After the impeachment vote, Yoon was suspended and replaced as acting president by the PM, a Yoon appointee. The Constitutional Court has until June to decide. It normally has nine judges, but currently only six owing to recent retirements. If the Court upholds the impeachment, Yoon will be removed and new elections required within 60 days. On Friday the PM was impeached over failure to appoint additional judges and replaced by the finance minister as acting president.

On December 13, French President Emmanuel Macron appointed centrist François Bayrou PM after the fall of conservative Michel Barnier’s government nine days earlier. This appointment is unlikely to fix Macron’s parliamentary problems that I covered previously, which are the result of an election he called three years early. Macron can’t call a new parliamentary election until July 2025.

Iceland, Romania, Botswana and Uruguay

The 63 Icelandic MPs are elected by PR with a 5% threshold. At the November 30 election, the centre-left Social Democrats won 15 seats (up nine since 2021), ahead of the conservative Independence on 14 (down two). The Social Democrats formed government with the assistance of two smaller centrist parties. The Left-Green Movement lost all its eight seats after falling below the threshold.

I previously covered the December 1 Romanian parliamentary election. Right-wing to far-right parties made large gains at the expense of the centre-left PSD and conservative PNL, who had been in a coalition government since September 2021. These two parties formed another coalition government on December 23, but also needed the support of the Hungarian minority party UDMR.

Of the 69 Botswana MPs, 61 were elected by FPTP with the remaining appointed. At the October 30 election, the centre-left UDC won 36 seats (up 28 since 2019), the social democratic BCP 15 (up eight) and the conservative BDP four (down 34). The BDP had governed continuously since the first Botswana election in 1965.

At the November 24 Uruguayan presidential runoff election, the left-wing Broad Front’s candidate defeated the incumbent conservative National by a 52.0-48.0 margin. Both parliamentary chambers were elected by PR on October 27, held with the first round of the presidential election. The Broad Front won 16 of the 30 senators (a majority), and 48 of the 99 seats in the Chamber of Representatives, two short of a majority.

US election late counting

Democrats are still a slight chance to gain control of the House despite a popular vote deficit. Also covered: upcoming Irish and German elections.

12:13pm Sunday The Dem has taken the lead in California’s 45th by just 0.01%. But with late counting favouring the Dem heavily, he should increase his lead. I think this will be my last post on this thread.

1:47pm Saturday Small vote numbers today further reduced the Rep’s lead in California’s 45th to just 0.02%, while the Rep’s lead slightly increased to 1.1% in the 13th, but Dem-favouring counties in that district are undercounted. Overall, Reps lead in called races by 218-212. In the remaining five, Dems should win Ohio’s ninth and California’s 45th, the Reps should win Iowa’s first and Alaska’s only, with California’s 13th still undecided.

2:04pm Friday November 15 Today’s counting in California’s 13th broke heavily to the Dem, with the Rep lead reduced from 2.4% to 1.0% with 84% in. In the 45th, few votes were counted today, with the Rep holding a 0.08% lead with 93% in. If Reps lose both these seats, their House margin would be 220-215.

4:53pm The Reps have hit the 218 called seats needed for a House majority. But Trump wants three House Reps to serve in his administration, and Rep Matt Gaetz has already resigned, so there’ll need to be three by-elections in Rep-held seats. In most states, by-elections require a primary at which major party candidates are selected before the by-election itself, so it takes months to elect a new member.

12:36pm Thursday Reps lead in called House seats by 217-208. But one Rep seat lead in California is close to flipping to a Dem lead, with the Rep lead falling from 4% to 0.12% and 7% still remaining to be counted. Reps are likely to win all other seats they lead in, for a 221-214 majority.

2:56pm Wednesday The Reps lead in called House races by 216-207, with 218 needed for a majority. In Californian counting today, the 41st moved to the Dems, with Reps now only ahead by 0.8% after they led by 4% after election night. But other seats have the Reps holding steady. The Reps are virtually certain to win a House majority.

4:06pm Tuesday CNN has called the Arizona Senate contest for the Dem, giving the Reps a 52-47 lead. The Reps are very likely to win the last undecided Senate seat in Pennsylvania, where they have a 0.5% lead with 98% in.

In the House, Reps have a 214-205 lead in called races and an overall 222-213 lead. However, two Californian seats with narrow Rep leads moved to Dems in counting today. If Dems win both these seats, Reps would win the House by just a 220-215 margin.

2:26pm Monday The Dem will win the Arizona Senate contest, where he leads by 50.0-47.8 with 91% in. There hasn’t been much counting for the House today as it’s Sunday US time. Reps lead in called seats by 214-203, and they maintain a 222-213 overall lead.

In my Conversation article today on Newspoll, I said that Kamala Harris should have emphasised health care more, particularly Trump’s nearly successful attempt to repeal Obamacare in his first term.

3:43pm Sunday CNN has called Arizona for Trump, so he officially wins the Electoral College by 312 to 226. In the Arizona Senate, the Dem has increased his lead to 49.7-48.2 with 86% in. In the House, Reps lead in called races by 213-202. Today, Dems gained a lead in a Calif seat that Reps had previously led in, so Reps now lead in 222 seats to 213 for Dems. There are three more seats in Calif with current Rep leads by about 3%, which could be won by Dems.

4:42pm Saturday: CNN has called the Nevada Senate contest for the Democrat. In Arizona, the Dem leads by 49.5-48.4 with 82% in. In the House, Reps lead in called seats by 212-200. While a Californian seat has flipped to a Dem lead since yesterday, an Arizonan seat has flipped to a Rep lead. Reps still lead the House by 223-212.

This post will be used to follow late counting in the US election. Donald Trump will win the last uncalled state in Arizona, and win 312 electoral votes to 226 for Kamala Harris. Trump leads the national popular vote by 50.7-47.7, with many more votes outstanding in Democratic strongholds like California. Before The New York Times Needle was turned off, its forecast was for Trump to win the popular vote by 1.5%.

You can read my latest on the big swings to Trump among Hispanics and young men at The Conversation. The Cook Political Report’s popular vote tracker shows the swings since 2020 by each state. Racially diverse states had the biggest swings to Trump.

In the Senate, Republicans have a 52-45 lead over Democrats (including allied independents) after gaining Ohio, Montana and West Virginia. Democrats have won or are leading in four of the five presidential swing states that held Senate elections (Pennsylvania the exception). If Republicans win the Senate by 53-47, Democrats could hope to recover it in 2026, when Republicans will be defending 21 of the 34 seats up.

Of the remaining contests, Republicans hold a 0.5% lead in Pennsylvania with 98% in, and Democrats hold a 1.3% lead in Nevada with 96% in. Arizona is the most interesting with Democrats holding a 1.7% lead with 74% in.

In the House of Representatives, Republicans lead Democrats in called races by 211 seats to 199. If Republicans win all the seats the currently lead in, they will win the House by 223-212. However, there are five seats Republicans lead by four points or less in California, where there is much late counting. So far California’s late counting has been good for Democrats.

If Democrats win the House or even get close, it would be despite a popular vote deficit in the Cook Political Report tracker of 51.6-46.9. While that gap will close on late counting, Republicans should still win by about 3%.

Irish election: November 29

Ireland uses the Hare-Clark proportional system that is used in Australia for Tasmanian and ACT elections. At this election there will be 174 members elected in 43 multi-member electorates. This election was called before it was due in March 2025.

Ireland has been governed for most of its history by one of two rival conservative parties: Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. After the 2020 election, these two parties formed a coalition government for the first time in Ireland’s history, with the Greens also included. The left-wing Sinn Féin had won the most votes in 2020 with 24.5%, the first time in almost a century that neither FG nor FF had won the most votes.

In Irish polls, SF support had surged to a peak of about 35% in May 2022, but since November 3023, SF support has slumped back to about 18%, behind both FF and FG. This election is likely to return the two conservative parties to a coalition government.

Left-wing parties to be routed at likely March German election

After the last federal German election in September 2021, a governing coalition was formed by the centre-left Social Democrats, the Greens and the pro-business Free Democrats. However, this government has now collapsed, and it’s likely the next German election will be held in March 2025, rather than September.

German polls have been terrible for the governing parties for a long time, and the conservative Christian Democrats are virtually certain to win the most seats. But they are unlikely to be able to form a coalition easily, given their opposition to dealing with the far-right Alternative for Germany.

US presidential election minus six weeks

Kamala Harris a slight favourite to win in Nate Silver’s model. Also covered: two Canadian by-elections, a dreadful poll for Keir Starmer, France’s new Prime Minister, a German state election and a socialist wins in Sri Lanka.

The US presidential election is on November 5. In Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Kamala Harris has a 49.0-46.3 lead over Donald Trump (49.2-46.2 in my previous US election article for The Conversation on Monday). In presidential elections, the Electoral College is decisive, not the national popular vote. Harris has at least a one-point lead in enough states to win the Electoral College by a 276-262 margin.

In Silver’s model, Harris has a 55% chance to win the Electoral College, up from 54% on Monday. She has been the favourite since last Friday after falling to a 35% win probability on September 9. Previously there had been a large gap between Silver’s and FiveThirtyEight’s models, with Harris favoured more at FiveThirtyEight. But this gap has nearly vanished, with Harris now a 56% win probability at FiveThirtyEight.

Monday’s Conversation article also covered elections for the US House of Representatives and Senate that will be held concurrently with the presidential election. If Harris wins, Democrats have a good chance to regain control of the House, but Republicans are likely to gain Senate control. Democrats are defending seats in three states Trump won easily in 2016 and 2020 and the Senate system favours Republicans owing to two senators per state.

Canada looking bleak for Liberals

Two Canadian federal by-elections occurred on September 16. In LaSalle-Émard-Verdun in Quebec, 91 candidates stood as a protest against first-past-the-post, with most receiving very few votes. The left-wing separatist Quebec Bloc gained from the centre-left Liberals, winning by 28.0-27.2 with 26.1% for the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) and 11.6% for the Conservatives. At the 2021 federal election, results in this seat were 42.9% Liberal, 22.1% Quebec Bloc, 19.4% NDP and 7.5% Conservatives.

At the by-election in Elmwood-Transcona in Manitoba, the NDP retained against the Conservatives, but by a much reduced margin. The NDP defeated the Conservatives by 48.1-44.1 with 4.8% for the Liberals. In 2021, the NDP won this seat by 49.7-28.1 with 14.7% for the Liberals.

The next Canadian federal election is due by October 2025. FPTP will be used to elect all 343 seats, with 172 needed for a majority. The CBC poll tracker gives the Conservatives 42.9%, the Liberals 24.1%, the NDP 17.6% and the Quebec Bloc 7.8% (33.5% in Quebec). This would be a Conservative landslide with the seat projection giving them 218 seats, the Liberals 63, the Quebec Bloc 39 and the NDP 21. The Liberals have governed since they won the October 2015 election, though they were reduced to a minority government after the 2019 election.

UK, France, Germany and Sri Lanka

In my previous article in early September, I covered the lack of a honeymoon for UK Labour and PM Keir Starmer after winning the July 4 general election. In an Opinium poll taken last week, Starmer’s net approval had plunged 45 points since the first post-election Opinium poll in mid-July. His net approval is now -26, one point lower than for former Conservative PM Rishi Sunak.

At snap French parliamentary elections in early July, the left-wing NFP alliance won 180 of the 577 seats, President Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble 159, the far-right National Rally and allies 142 and the conservative Republicans 39. On September 5, Macron appointed the conservative Michel Barnier as his new PM. Last Saturday, Barnier and Macron announced a new cabinet composed of mostly conservative ministers. The NFP is hostile to the new government, so its survival depends on National Rally abstaining on confidence motions.

I previously covered September 1 German state elections in Thuringia and Saxony where the far-right AfD made gains. At last Sunday’s state election in Brandenburg, the centre-left SPD won 32 of the 88 seats (up seven since 2019), the AfD 30 (up seven), the economically left but socially conservative BSW 14 (new) and the conservative CDU 12 (down three). The Greens and Left had won ten seats each in 2019, but were wiped out as neither cleared the 5% threshold.

At last Saturday’s Sri Lankan presidential election, the socialist candidate of the National People’s Power party defeated the establishment candidate by 55.9-44.1 after preferences. The NPP had won just 3.2% in 2019.

US presidential election minus nine weeks

Kamala Harris’ win probability dropping in Nate Silver’s model. Also covered: UK polls since the election, still no new PM in France after the election and two German state elections.

The US presidential election is on November 5. In Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Kamala Harris has a 48.9-45.5 lead over Donald Trump. In my article for The Conversation last Friday, Harris led by 48.8-45.0. The next important US event is the debate between Harris and Trump next Tuesday (Wednesday at 11am AEST).

It is the Electoral College, not the national popular vote, that is decisive in presidential elections. The Electoral College is expected to be biased to Trump relative to the popular vote, with Harris needing at least a two-point popular vote win in Silver’s model to be the Electoral College favourite.

Harris’ probability of winning the Electoral College in Silver’s model has dropped from 47% last Friday to 42%, with Trump now the favourite at a 58% chance to win. Trump’s win probability has increased every day in this model since August 27, and he’s now at his highest win probability since July 30. Current polling in the most important swing state (Pennsylvania, with 19 electoral votes) only gives Harris a one-point lead, and the model expects further declines for Harris as her convention bounce fades.

UK: no honeymoon for Starmer and Labour after election

At the July 4 UK general election, Labour won a thumping victory with 411 of the 650 House of Commons seats, to 121 Conservatives and 72 Liberal Democrats. This occurred despite Labour winning just 33.7% of the vote, to 23.7% for the Conservatives, 14.3% Reform (but only five seats), 12.2% Lib Dems and 6.7% Greens (four seats).

A new government would normally expect a polling honeymoon, but not this one. There haven’t been many voting intention polls since the election, but a late August BMG poll gave Labour just a 30-26 over the Conservatives with 19% for Reform. A late August More in Common poll gave PM Keir Starmer a net -16 approval rating, while a mid-August Opinium poll had Starmer at -6 after their first poll after the election gave him a +18 net approval. I believe the economic messages from Labour that there’s more pain ahead for the UK are backfiring.

France: still no PM two months after election

The French president (Emmanuel Macron) is the most important French politician, but the system still requires a PM who has the confidence of the lower house of parliament. At snap parliamentary elections that Macron called for June 30 and July 7, the left-wing NFP alliance won 180 of the 577 seats, Macron’s Ensemble 159, the far-right National Rally and allies 142 and the conservative Republicans 39.

While without a majority before the election, Ensemble was in a far better position with 245 seats. On July 23, the NFP agreed on a PM candidate, Lucie Castets, but Macron has no interest in appointing her. A PM needs to be appointed by October 1, the deadline to submit a draft 2025 budget.

Far-right gains at two German state elections

German state elections occurred in Thuringia and Saxony last Sunday. Proportional representation with a 5% threshold was used. In Thuringia, the far-right AfD won 32 of the 88 seats (up ten since 2019), the conservative CDU 23 (up two), the economically left but socially conservative BSW 15 (new), the Left 12 (down 17) and the centre-left SPD six (down two). The Greens and pro-business FDP fell below the 5% threshold and were wiped out.

In Saxony, the CDU won 42 of the 120 seats (down three), the AfD 41 (up three), the BSW 15 (new), the SPD nine (down one), the Greens six (down six) and the Left six (down eight). In Thuringia, the AfD is well short of the 45 seats needed for a majority, and the most likely outcome is a non-AfD government. A year out from the next federal German election, the polls are grim for the current governing coalition of the SPD, Greens and FDP.

Page 1 of 3

1 2 3 Next »