US presidential election minus nine weeks

Kamala Harris’ win probability dropping in Nate Silver’s model. Also covered: UK polls since the election, still no new PM in France after the election and two German state elections.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The US presidential election is on November 5. In Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Kamala Harris has a 48.9-45.5 lead over Donald Trump. In my article for The Conversation last Friday, Harris led by 48.8-45.0. The next important US event is the debate between Harris and Trump next Tuesday (Wednesday at 11am AEST).

It is the Electoral College, not the national popular vote, that is decisive in presidential elections. The Electoral College is expected to be biased to Trump relative to the popular vote, with Harris needing at least a two-point popular vote win in Silver’s model to be the Electoral College favourite.

Harris’ probability of winning the Electoral College in Silver’s model has dropped from 47% last Friday to 42%, with Trump now the favourite at a 58% chance to win. Trump’s win probability has increased every day in this model since August 27, and he’s now at his highest win probability since July 30. Current polling in the most important swing state (Pennsylvania, with 19 electoral votes) only gives Harris a one-point lead, and the model expects further declines for Harris as her convention bounce fades.

UK: no honeymoon for Starmer and Labour after election

At the July 4 UK general election, Labour won a thumping victory with 411 of the 650 House of Commons seats, to 121 Conservatives and 72 Liberal Democrats. This occurred despite Labour winning just 33.7% of the vote, to 23.7% for the Conservatives, 14.3% Reform (but only five seats), 12.2% Lib Dems and 6.7% Greens (four seats).

A new government would normally expect a polling honeymoon, but not this one. There haven’t been many voting intention polls since the election, but a late August BMG poll gave Labour just a 30-26 over the Conservatives with 19% for Reform. A late August More in Common poll gave PM Keir Starmer a net -16 approval rating, while a mid-August Opinium poll had Starmer at -6 after their first poll after the election gave him a +18 net approval. I believe the economic messages from Labour that there’s more pain ahead for the UK are backfiring.

France: still no PM two months after election

The French president (Emmanuel Macron) is the most important French politician, but the system still requires a PM who has the confidence of the lower house of parliament. At snap parliamentary elections that Macron called for June 30 and July 7, the left-wing NFP alliance won 180 of the 577 seats, Macron’s Ensemble 159, the far-right National Rally and allies 142 and the conservative Republicans 39.

While without a majority before the election, Ensemble was in a far better position with 245 seats. On July 23, the NFP agreed on a PM candidate, Lucie Castets, but Macron has no interest in appointing her. A PM needs to be appointed by October 1, the deadline to submit a draft 2025 budget.

Far-right gains at two German state elections

German state elections occurred in Thuringia and Saxony last Sunday. Proportional representation with a 5% threshold was used. In Thuringia, the far-right AfD won 32 of the 88 seats (up ten since 2019), the conservative CDU 23 (up two), the economically left but socially conservative BSW 15 (new), the Left 12 (down 17) and the centre-left SPD six (down two). The Greens and pro-business FDP fell below the 5% threshold and were wiped out.

In Saxony, the CDU won 42 of the 120 seats (down three), the AfD 41 (up three), the BSW 15 (new), the SPD nine (down one), the Greens six (down six) and the Left six (down eight). In Thuringia, the AfD is well short of the 45 seats needed for a majority, and the most likely outcome is a non-AfD government. A year out from the next federal German election, the polls are grim for the current governing coalition of the SPD, Greens and FDP.

717 comments on “US presidential election minus nine weeks”

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  7. On Wednesday morning, following his poor showing in the previous night’s presidential debate, Donald Trump called for ABC’s broadcast license to be rescinded after debate moderators fact-checked some of his numerous lies.

    “I think ABC took a big hit last night,” he complained during a call to Fox News’ “Fox & Friends” program. “I mean, to be honest, they’re a news organization. They have to be licensed to do it. They ought to take away their license for the way they did that.”

    Trump also claimed, “It was three-to-one. It was a rigged deal.”

  8. James Surowiecki
    @JamesSurowiecki
    The ABC moderators have let Trump speak for 9 minutes longer – roughly 30% more – than Harris. The way they’ve “rigged” the debate is by letting him hang himself with his own stream-of-consciousness rambles.

  9. David Plouffe
    @davidplouffe
    Forty point difference with undecided voters on their abortion answers. Widest gap I’ve ever seen in debate dials.

  10. Although Centre, PP, scromo, BTsays were certain that Harris did not win the debate, the reaction US says otherwise.

    A summary of reactions to last night’s debate – “knockout,” “crushed,” “destroyed,” “wasn’t close”(Although Team Katich may not read this article, I ask himvto read it because he was relatively silent on this debate)

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/9/11/2269473/-A-summary-of-reactions-to-last-night-s-debate-knockout-crushed-destroyed-wasn-t-close?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

    “It appears pretty unanimous that Kamala Harris absolutely crushed Donald Trump in last night’s presidential debate. I’ve pulled together a summary of reactions from across the punditry:

    “It may very well be the best televised debate performance ever.” — Lawrence O’Donnell, MSNBC.

    “Donald Trump got destroyed in this debate because he can’t control his mind. And you don’t want a president of the United States that is not in full control of his mind.” — Joy Reid, MSNBC.

    “Harris won — and it wasn’t close. She showed up as her prosecutorial self, effectively putting Trump in the witness stand throughout much of the debate. Democrats have to be downright giddy.” — Adam Wren, Politico.

    “Vice President Kamala Harris demonstrated in Tuesday night’s presidential debate, in case any rational person had doubts, that she is the only decent, prepared and fit candidate in the presidential race. In both her answers and demeanor, she demonstrated the unmistakable contrast between a mature, responsible adult and someone who resembles the mean, crazy relative no one wants to sit next to at the holiday table.” — Jennifer Rubin, Washington Post.

    “Donald Trump made a raving, rambling fool of himself in that debate.” — Frank Bruni, The New York Times.

    “Vice President Harris’ supporters have got to be pleased with her performance this evening,…Over and over, baiting Donald Trump into talking about crowd sizes and court cases and Nancy Pelosi and Russiagate and grievances. And he took the bait almost every time!” — Jake Tapper, CNN.

    “You had one candidate that was completely unhinged, just completely off his rocker. He looked badly, he looked old. he looked disconnected from reality, he looked enraged.” — Joe Scarborough, Morning Joe.

    “Kamala Harris: Winner by knock out,” – Mike Madrid, The Lincoln Project.

    “This has to be thought of as a collapse for Donald Trump. The two common things said were ‘trainwreck’ and ‘he needs this to end.’ He didn’t seem like he was ready.” — Fox pundit Harold Ford Jr.

    “Trump lost the debate and whining about the moderators doesn’t change it. He didn’t lose because of their behavior. He lost because of his own performance while his lips were moving, not theirs.” — Wingnut Erick Erickson
    ”

    Amd on and on and on it goes…..
    Me: Kamala Harris passed another Test. What is next Test scromo

  11. Continuing from @2:06 am,
    the assessments came from across political spectrum

    ““Vice President Harris was strong, smart, and superior when it came to responding to foreign and domestic issues. To use a Trump phrase, she dominated him like a little dog. Harris called out Trump on his lies and hate, while putting forth plans and ideas for all Americans. In short, Harris looked presidential.” — Paul Davies, Opinion Editor-at-Large, The Philadelphia Inquirer. (FYI, a group of the Inquirer’s opinion writers gave Harris an overall score of 8.5/10 and gave Trump a 1.8).”

  12. Didm’t someone on PB say that MSM will now ask for detailed plans from Harris pre-debate?
    Well your wish is granted.
    ”
    The Times managed to find 5 people who couldn’t decide who won:

    Pundits Said Harris Won the Debate. Undecided Voters Weren’t So Sure.

    “Voters said the vice president talked about a sweeping vision to fix the country’s most stubborn problems. But they wanted the fine print.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/11/us/politics/undecided-voters-react-debate.html
    ”

    I saw a comment: These five people demand the fine print from Harris. They happily accept “Person, woman, man, camera, TV” from Trump.

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