US Iowa Republican presidential caucus live

Live coverage of today’s Iowa caucus that Trump is expected to win easily. Also: a roundup of recent international electoral developments.

Live Commentary

4:10pm Ramaswamy has dropped out, so Trump, DeSantis and Haley are the final three standing with real support.

4:03pm Nearly final results are Trump 51.0%, DeSantis 21.2%, Haley 19.1% and Ramaswamy 7.7%. A great result for Trump. I’ll have a post on the New Hampshire primary next week.

2:55pm With 91% in, it’s Trump 51.0%, DeSantis 21.3%, Haley 19.0% and Ramaswamy 7.7%. The NYT forecast now has DeSantis finishing second. So a HUGE Trump win and no momentum for Haley probably means he’s going to win New Hampshire next week.

2:12pm The NYT has precinct maps showing there’s a big gap in Trump’s support by education and income, with higher-education and income areas less supportive. It’s the reverse pattern for Haley.

2:03pm With 39% reporting, it’s 52.8% Trump, 20.0% DeSantis, 18.7% Haley and 7.7% for Vivek Ramaswamy. The NYT prediction is Trump 51%, DeSantis 20%, Haley 19% and Ramaswamy 8%. DeSantis has a 57% chance to finish second.

1:34pm The NY Times live forecast has Haley ahead of DeSantis by an estimated 20% to 18% for second when all votes are counted. They give Haley a 57% chance to finish second.

1:14pm With 3% counted, Trump leads with 53%, followed by DeSantis at 21.5% and Haley at 17.6%. As expected, Trump wins Iowa.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The Iowa Republican caucuses start at 12pm AEDT today. There will probably be some discussion before votes are taken. These caucuses will allocate 40 delegates by statewide proportional representation. While Iowa and some other states allocate their Republican delegates proportionally, many other states use a winner takes all or winner takes most method, with South Carolina on February 24 the first such state.

A “caucus” is managed by the state party, and often requires voters to gather at a particular time. A “primary” is managed by the state’s electoral authority, and is administered in the same way as a general election. Turnout at primaries is much higher than at caucuses. In 2024, the large majority of contests use primaries. Turnout in Iowa could be affected by frigid weather.

These contests elect delegates who will formally select their party’s presidential candidate at conventions in July (for Republicans) and August (Democrats). With Donald Trump and Joe Biden way ahead in polls, a rematch of the 2020 election is very likely. Both Biden and Trump are likely to effectively seal their parties’ nominations on Super Tuesday March 5 when many states vote.

The New Hampshire primary for both parties is next Tuesday January 23, but it was stripped of all its Democratic delegates for voting earlier than allowed under the Democrats’ rules. The first contest to bind Democratic delegates will be South Carolina on February 3.

In FiveThirtyEight aggregates, Trump is way ahead in Iowa with 51.3% followed by Nikki Haley at 17.3% and Ron DeSantis at 16.1%. It’s closer in New Hampshire with Trump leading Haley by 41.4-30.0. In national Republican primary polls, Trump has 60.4%, DeSantis 12.1% and Haley 11.7%.

Democratic delegates are allocated proportionally, but with a 15% threshold. Only Biden is likely to clear this threshold in most contests. He has 69.8% in national Democratic polls, Marianne Williamson 6.1% and Dean Phillips 3.5%.

Poland, Serbia, Chile, Switzerland and Germany

Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS) party lost the October 15 election, but a new government was not sworn in until December 13 owing mainly to delays by the PiS-aligned president Andrzej Duda. The new governing coalition of liberal conservative Civic Platform, centrist Third Way and the Left won a confidence vote by 248-201. Duda can veto legislation and it takes a 60% majority to override his veto, which the non-PiS parties don’t have. The next presidential election is in 2025.

Snap parliamentary elections were held in Serbia on December 17. They were called early after authoritarian President Aleksandar Vučić’s SNS coalition did not win a majority in 2022 elections. The 250 parliamentarians were elected by national PR with a 3% threshold. The SNS won 129 seats (up nine), with an opposition coalition winning 65 seats (up 25). SNS won a majority.

On December 17, Chile rejected a right-wing constitution by a 55.8-44.2 margin. In September 2022, a left-wing constitution had been rejected by 61.9-38.1. The 1980 constitution that dictator Augusto Pinochet created continues to be in effect.

I previously covered the 2023 Swiss parliamentary elections. Rather than a single president or PM, Switzerland uses a seven-member federal council, which was elected by parliament on December 13. The composition was unchanged from 2019, with two from the right-wing SVP, two Social Democrats, two Liberals and one from the conservative Centre.

On December 19, Germany’s Constitutional Court ordered a February 11 rerun of the September 2021 German federal election in 455 of Berlin’s 2,256 polling booths. While a few seats are likely to change, the overall majority for the governing coalition of Social Democrats, Greens and pro-business Free Democrats is expected to be retained. But current national polls are bleak for the government, with the next election due by late 2025.

63 comments on “US Iowa Republican presidential caucus live”

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  1. parkySP says:
    Tuesday, January 16, 2024 at 9:43 pm

    “Was watching MSNBC earlier today and there was an interview with a mid to late 30s male. His only motivation was that Trump delivered the Supreme Court.

    Sad state of living when your only motivation as a male is controlling women’s health.”

    The decision made the US system exactly like the Australian system – States decide, not the Federal Government.

  2. @BTSays: I’ve found that most self-described “pro-life” advocates have zero interest in helping the infant after they’re born. Indeed, especially in America, a “pro-life” stance is almost always paired with a “small government” belief structure. For that reason, I prefer to call them “anti-abortion” advocates, rather than “pro-life” ones. It’s more honest.

  3. Biden has no record or platform to run on whatsoever. All he can offer is “I am not Trump”. He does not deserve to win if that’s all he’s got, but neither does Trump deserve to win either..

  4. I have no problem with pregnancy terminations being available. I would like them to be legal, safe and very rare. All involved should also be fully aware that they are legally killing a human being.

  5. Florida Democrats flip GOP seat, boosting party and humiliating DeSantis

    “Florida Democrats kicked off the new year with a major victory as businessman and Navy veteran Tom Keen flipped a Republican-held seat in the state House―a development that represents Gov. Ron DeSantis’ second electoral humiliation in the span of 24 hours.

    Keen defeated his Republican rival, Osceola County School Board member Erika Booth, 51-49 in Tuesday’s special election for the 35th House District, a constituency in the Orlando suburbs that Joe Biden carried 52-47. The Democrat will succeed Republican Fred Hawkins, whom Gov. Ron DeSantis appointed in June to serve as president of South Florida State College despite lacking any background in higher education.

    Republicans will hold an 84-36 supermajority in the state House as well as a similarly lopsided edge in the state Senate, so Keen’s victory won’t jeopardize the party’s iron grip on state government.”

  6. Ashasays:
    Wednesday, January 17, 2024 at 3:06 pm

    They’re not pro-life, they’re pro-birth. Once the kid has been born, they couldn’t give a fuck what happens to them.

    I would categorise them as anti-abortion because Democrats are pro-choice. That is the reason they are “they couldn’t give a fuck what happens to them Once the kid has been born”

  7. Thanks Adrian
    Quick question – what happens to Ramaswamy’s delegates now that he’s withdrawn? Is there a protocol or are they free agents?

  8. The Democratic National Committee has released a tongue-in-cheek statement following former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson’s decision to drop out of the 2024 presidential race.

    “This news comes as a shock to those of us who could’ve sworn he had already dropped out,” said DNC press sercretary Sarafina Chitika.

  9. Despite flipping that Florida seat at a by-election, Dems actually underperformed Biden in 2020; Biden won this seat by 52-47, a five-point margin, while Dems won by 51-49, a two-point margin.

    I’m not sure what happens to Ramaswamy’s three delegates, but they’re very unlikely to matter.

  10. Two new polls released in New Hampshire this week ahead of next week’s primary election:

    1. ARG 12-15 January:
    Haley 40% (+7%), Trump 40% (+3%), DeSantis 4% (NC), Ramaswamy 4% (-1%), Undecided 9% (NC)
    Changes in brackets are since last ARG poll 27/12/23-4/1/24.

    NB This was entirely taken prior to the Iowa Caucus I assume, which was on 15 January in the evening, but also entirely after Chris Christie dropped out 10 January.

    2. Suffolk University/Boston Globe/WBTS 15/16 January:
    Haley 34% (+15%), Trump 50% (+1%), DeSantis 5% (-5%), Undecided 11% (+11%)

    Comparison with previous Suffolk University poll 28/9/23-2/10/23 are a bit meaningless due to the length of time lapse and the fact they must have allocated or excluded the Undecideds in that poll. Nonetheless, changes shown in brackets.

    This 2nd poll above is the only one published that was taken at least partially after Iowa Caucus. I wonder if they started in the evening after the Iowa result so it’s 100% after the Caucus result, as there’s nothing showing for Ramaswamy who dropped out immediately after the Iowa result and endorsed Trump.

  11. FUBARsays:
    Wednesday, January 17, 2024 at 10:51 am
    parkySP says:
    Tuesday, January 16, 2024 at 9:43 pm

    “Was watching MSNBC earlier today and there was an interview with a mid to late 30s male. His only motivation was that Trump delivered the Supreme Court.

    Sad state of living when your only motivation as a male is controlling women’s health.”

    The decision made the US system exactly like the Australian system – States decide, not the Federal Government.
    So the F what? Your example is stupid. Australian states have a sensible approach not withstanding regional hospital situation where they can be dictated to by religious administrators to curb the rights of citizens.

    The U.S states are a hotpotch of sensible to completely F’ing insane. No more than the failed Presidential candidate who’s extreme laws couldn’t sway the Republican populace to go with him.

    States rights. States are swaying towards Democratic representatives. Women are dying and suffering from pregnancy health issues that doctors fought more than a few centuries to improve.

    I understand fully which century you’d like to return women’s health outcomes to. States rights. F’ing spare me!

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