Freshwater Strategy: 50-50 (open thread)

As Labor and Liberal get candidates in place for the Dunkley by-election, Freshwater Strategy all but repeats its poll result from a month ago.

The News Corp Sunday papers yesterday carried a Freshwater Strategy poll showing 50-50 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 31%, Coalition 39%, Greens 14% and others 15%. This is very similar to results the same pollster produced for the Financial Review last month, differing only in that the Greens were on 13% and others 16%. The poll was conducted last Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 1007.

News Corp’s coverage was incomplete with respect to voting intention and focused on attitudinal findings: that 81% said the government was not doing enough about the cost of living, 51% said the country was headed in the wrong direction, 51% expected “green measures” would increase power costs, and that while 52% said they would vote yes to a republic, 55% did not think a referendum should be held “now”. The utility of these numbers is limited by the News Corp report’s lack of detail on contrary and uncommitted responses, on which I can shed no further light.

In other news, Labor and Liberal have both confirmed their candidates for the Dunkley by-election, expected to be held late February at the soonest. Labor’s candidate is Jodie Belyea, manager of a foundation that provides tertiary scholarships for disadvantaged women, who was endorsed by the party’s national executive with backing from the Socialist Left faction. For the Liberals, Frankston mayor Nathan Conroy was chosen yesterday from a ballot of local party members with a reported 89 votes, against 40 for former state MP Donna Hope and 25 for Bec Buchanan.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,639 comments on “Freshwater Strategy: 50-50 (open thread)”

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  1. Player Onesays:
    Thursday, January 18, 2024 at 10:10 pm
    Entropy @ #1551 Thursday, January 18th, 2024 – 7:56 pm

    Player Onesays:
    Thursday, January 18, 2024 at 7:35 pm
    laughtong @ #1544 Thursday, January 18th, 2024 – 7:25 pm

    Player One @ #1526 Thursday, January 18th, 2024 – 6:58 pm

    Shogun @ #1516 Thursday, January 18th, 2024 – 6:43 pm

    Player One
    Just another Albotross …
    ——————————————————————
    Albotross. I see what you did here – you combined Albo and albatross. Fucking brilliant – how do you come up with these gems?
    ———————————————————————
    I can’t take much credit … I guess there just isn’t a lot of competition here.
    ——————————————————————–
    I have seen that used by Herald Sun comment writers
    ——————————————————————–
    You might want to go post there then.

    =========================================================================

    Sorry i don’t understand your logic here. You suggest they should post in the Herald Scum because you used an abusive term for Albo that Herald Scum commentators often use. Please correct if i’m wrong but why exactly does that mean they should post in the Herald Scum?.
    ——————————————————————-
    Did I touch a nerve?

    ================================================================

    Not at all, just perplexed about the logic of your statement above. Which i wondered if you could explain. I note you haven’t, so i probably will remain perplexed.

  2. Been There says:
    Thursday, January 18, 2024 at 9:57 pm
    “ pretending the massacres never happened.”

    No one pretends massacres never happened.

  3. nathsays:
    Thursday, January 18, 2024 at 9:51 pm
    I actually don’t mind jan 26 being contested. It will therefore always raise the issue of dispossession and that’s not necessarily a bad thing. What’s not realistic is thinking that just by changing the date all those issues and history are suddenly reconciled.

    Good point Nath

  4. Have a look at those timeframes that Pie Shop outlined:

    1. In September – 3 months after the fatal Taipan accident – and prior to the investigation being completed the Perfumed Warlord announced that the Taipan’s would be withdrawn immediately from Australian army service. Even though there is no prospect of the army getting even a small squadron’s worth of Blackhawk’s within the next few years. Capability Gap anyone?

    2. Airbus did a quick search of the helicopter market and found there no apparent buyers for them.

    3. Bingo – a further three months later and a billion dollars worth of kit has been destroyed. I read with horror the initial reports in December at the extend to which Army had to go to cut the airframes up (to fucking bury them) and at the time I didn’t comment, hoping reports were ill founded anti Labor propaganda. But no: they have been chopped up and beyond apparent repair.

    3. Then low and beyond Ukraine makes a formal request. What sort of level of simple minded incuriosity would not have thought as … dunno a possibility that perhaps a hard pressed country like Ukraine may have a need for them?

    A billion dollars of kit destroyed. Just like that.

  5. nath says:
    Thursday, January 18, 2024 at 9:23 pm
    Entropy says:

    “What a piece of work is a man! how noble in reason! how infinite in faculty! in form and moving how express and admirable! in action how like an angel! in apprehension how like a god! the beauty of the world! the paragon of animals!
    __________
    What a wonderful quote. And the phrase ‘paragon of animals’, used by nineteenth century evolutionists and clearly showing that Shakespeare was probing around similar ideas two centuries prior.

    ———————————————————————————
    I prefer cats. However, I am responsible and keep mine inside.
    Actually, I prefer most animals to ‘man’.

    Maybe I should change my posting name to ‘misanthrope’.

  6. Changing the date would not change the winging one iota. I mean these people a professional victims, winging is a big part of who they are. It is their shtick and for many it is even how they make their money…the irony, getting paid by the Government to pore scorn and hate the nation that pays you.

  7. Entropy @ #1597 Thursday, January 18th, 2024 – 10:18 pm

    Been Theresays:
    Thursday, January 18, 2024 at 9:33 pm

    Invasion day, 26th January is not a date for celebration!

    ==============================================================

    Australia day will be changed one day. That day will be when the right wingers realise that more people are remembering it as invasion day than celebrating it as Australia day. When that time arises, which one day it will. The right wingers will be the ones promoting the moving of the date too. As the polling will show it is doing more to educate the Australian public about the wrongs of the European settlement of this country. Than it is doing to promote the patriotic jingoism they are trying to flog. The polling shows we have some way to go to reach this time, but polling also shows we steadily heading in that direction also.

    Most well-educated people are already aware of the ‘wrongs of the European settlement of this country’. This doesn’t equate with them wanting to change the date of Australia Day, despite your hopeful speculation that one day they will. The two things are not meeting in consensus. There’s a minority that get exercised by it, but that’s all it is and probably all it ever will be. Also, as my great Indigenous friend said to me when I asked her about her opinion wrt Australia Day, she said, ‘mate, I’m bloody happy that the Whitefellas brought their advanced society to my country, otherwise we’d probably still be living in humpies in the dirt!’

    She, herself, is a woman who has made the transition from the missions in Toomelah, to now living a respectable life in Byron Bay and with a family that are successful in their own endeavours. I didn’t prompt her to say what she did to me, she just did in the way that she does with her wry, very dry, sense of humour.

  8. ” I mean these people a professional victims, winging is a big part of who they are. It is their shtick and for many it is even how they make their money…the irony, getting paid by the Government to pore scorn and hate the nation that pays you.”

    There is a word that describes this kind of gross hateful degradation and generalisation of a people group based on tropes that have very little resemblance to reality, I just can’t put my finger on it immediately.

  9. Player Onesays:
    Thursday, January 18, 2024 at 10:30 pm
    Entropy @ #1601 Thursday, January 18th, 2024 – 10:23 pm

    Not at all, just perplexed about the logic of your statement above. Which i wondered if you could explain. I note you haven’t, so i probably will remain perplexed.

    It’s really not my problem that you can’t figure it out.

    I imagine you must spend quite a lot of your life “perplexed”.

    =====================================================================

    Not really, as i spend very little time conversing with you. As i plan to cut back on this further, i expect to spend even less time being perplexed. Though this will probably leave me always wondering about that great unanswered question. Can you actually get any dumber?.

    Quote: “Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.”

  10. C@tmommasays:
    Thursday, January 18, 2024 at 10:36 pm
    Entropy @ #1597 Thursday, January 18th, 2024 – 10:18 pm

    Been Theresays:
    Thursday, January 18, 2024 at 9:33 pm

    Invasion day, 26th January is not a date for celebration!

    ==============================================================

    Australia day will be changed one day. That day will be when the right wingers realise that more people are remembering it as invasion day than celebrating it as Australia day. When that time arises, which one day it will. The right wingers will be the ones promoting the moving of the date too. As the polling will show it is doing more to educate the Australian public about the wrongs of the European settlement of this country. Than it is doing to promote the patriotic jingoism they are trying to flog. The polling shows we have some way to go to reach this time, but polling also shows we steadily heading in that direction also.
    ======================================================================
    Most well-educated people are already aware of the ‘wrongs of the European settlement of this country’. This doesn’t equate with them wanting to change the date of Australia Day, despite your hopeful
    ===============================================================

    While i can’t say i’m totally up with the demographics of the polling of those who want to keep Australia Day where it is and those who want it moved. I’m pretty sure over the years the number wanting it moved has increased and that the demographic that is most for moving it is the well educated.

  11. Player One says:
    Thursday, January 18, 2024 at 10:42 pm

    What’s the point of your link to an article that doesn’t pretend massacres never happened?

  12. Player Onesays:
    Thursday, January 18, 2024 at 10:48 pm
    Entropy @ #1613 Thursday, January 18th, 2024 – 10:47 pm

    Quote: “Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.”
    ========================================================

    Excellent advice. I’ll stop.
    ===========================================================

    At last a positive initiative to raise the intelligence level of what is being posted.

  13. “What’s the point of your link to an article that doesn’t pretend massacres never happened?”

    This feels like one of these topics where you decide you don’t really like discussing it when your bullshit is called out.

  14. “ Michael “Mick” O’Leary, an associate professor at the University of Western Australia and a “climate geoscientist”, was criticised by Federal Court justice ­Natalie Charlesworth, who wrote his “conduct (was) far flung from the proper scientific method, and falls short of an expert’s obligation to this court”.

    “My concerns about Dr O’Leary’s independence and credibility are such that I would not accept his evidence as sufficient to establish any scientific proposition at all, even if his evidence had gone unchallenged and even if he possessed the appropriate skills, qualification and experience to express them,” she said. “My conclusions about Dr O’Leary’s lack of regard for the truth, lack of independence and lack of scientific rigour are sufficient to discount or dismiss all of his reports for all purposes.””

    “ Dr O’Leary was brought onto the Munkara v Santos case by the Environmental Defenders Office as an expert witness. The case, based on Indigenous heritage claims, was an attempt to prevent the Barossa gas field from being developed by Santos, which was trying to build the $5.8bn gas project in the Timor Sea.”

    “ The judgment, which was handed down on January 15, said Dr O’Leary had admitted to being untruthful to Tiwi Islanders in a “cultural mapping” exercise in such a way as “to coach the ­attendees about what they might say … so as to achieve their objective of stopping the pipeline”.”

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/higher-education/scientists-uni-role-should-be-in-doubt-after-judges-excoriation/news-story/68ae6b8cf2a9fc375ab12296ced8faa5

  15. Now that it’s been confirmed that the Taipans will be be buried perhaps the Ukrainians should start lobbying now for our soon to be replaced Abrams before the new ones start arriving sometime this year.

  16. Steelydansays:
    Thursday, January 18, 2024 at 10:32 pm
    Changing the date would not change the winging one iota. I mean these people a professional victims, winging is a big part of who they are. It is their shtick and for many it is even how they make their money…the irony, getting paid by the Government to pore scorn and hate the nation that pays you.

    =================================================================

    When you get posts like this. Why is it my grammar, punctuation and spelling that it always being corrected by the online editors?. Just ignore me, i’m just having a wing, you know one of those hot and spicy ones.

  17. Top 50 sporting moments should include Super Impose’s Cox Plate win in 1992 and Kosta Tsuyu’s win over Zeb Judah in 2001.


  18. Player Onesays:
    Thursday, January 18, 2024 at 10:47 pm
    Australia Day discussions really brings it out, doesn’t it?

    Yes it does and makes everyone forget for a moment what a dufus Dutton is ( which is exactly what some on this want)

  19. shellbell

    Might And Powers Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup double in 1997 would be hard to surpass.

    Even though I may be talking through my wallet, as I cleaned up handsomely on that combination.


  20. shellbellsays:
    Friday, January 19, 2024 at 12:07 am
    Top 50 sporting moments should include Super Impose’s Cox Plate win in 1992 and Kosta Tsuyu’s win over Zeb Judah in 2001.

    Or the Brisbane Cricket Test match.

  21. For my 2 cents worth – drop the whole Australia Day thing altogether. Don’t change the date. Abolish it.

    The date we have chosen is offensive. It actually is Invasion Day.

    We have shit loads of public holidays already, including the day the nation was born -1st Jan 1901.

    Who needs small plastic flags with the Union Jack on them?

    Meanwhile SMRs still don’t exist and Dutton is still a knob.

    And the US is on a rapid path to fascism. 20 Feb 1939 – Madison square gardens

    Goodnight.

  22. Fubar is honest in his conservative arguments and represents positions more common in Australia than many would like to admit, and thus positions worth knowing and countering. Even where in the way of Liberal shit some of these positions are based in 100% bullshit fake facts, I find myself less annoyed by it all than by the trolls who are just here to needle people or people who think that nicknames like Albotross are clever. Makes the place less of an echo chamber.

    On Australia Day – in a society as inclusive as ours it has become clear that 26 January is too divisive because it does after all commemorate the key date of our colonial past, not the date of Federation or some other date important to the country we are now. There is no need to go in the other direction and pick a date or new holiday which is also divisive, as some proposals seek to do. We don’t need to have a White People Flagellate Yourselves Day. Just extend out the New Years’ break with an extra public holiday for Federation Day and be done with it for mine.

  23. We come together to celebrate the day we began the process of “fubarising” one of the great natural wonders of the world.

    You can all go and get “fubarred”, said to no one in particular.

    The “fubarization” of the Indigenous peoples has extended itself far beyond first expectations.

    A “fubar” is an invasive species, spreading rapidly with no known cure.

  24. shellbell says:
    Friday, January 19, 2024 at 12:07 am
    Top 50 sporting moments should include Super Impose’s Cox Plate win in 1992 and Kosta Tsuyu’s win over Zeb Judah in 2001

    ———————————————————————————
    Or Jeff Fenech getting ripped off in Las Vegas in 1991 against Azumah Nelson.

  25. C@tmomma @ 8.21am (thursday)
    Spot on.
    Some of the students may escape from Erina Heights Public School but my comments were related to the high school behind Erina IGA.
    As an aside. Erina IGA had their full ‘Special Events’ shelves, near the checkouts, and other end display areas chocker block for Halloween & Christmas.
    They had a tiny space with a sparse amount of items for Aust. Day tack.
    When asked, it was the leftover from last year.
    Basically, clearing up space in the storeroom.

  26. Steve777@5.30pm.
    Fully agree and support.
    Like it or loathe it, 26th January, is depending upon your outlook Foundation / Invasion Day in NSW.
    Like it or loathe it, January 26th isn’t going to be changed.
    The current government is not being feeble or weak in dismissing such an agenda nor are they stupid enough to commit electoral suicide which may see any progressive governments consigned to the bin for generations.

    All of the other states have their own ‘Foundation Day’ public holidays – and have the bonus of ‘Australia Day’.
    Personally, I would prefer to see any national day changed to commemorate the first sitting of the Australian Parlaiment, being a day of national unity, for most Australians.
    Although New Years Day, would be a salient date, I can’t imagine that many Australians would accept losing a public holiday.
    Furthermore, I would like to see due consideration given to a dialogue with Indigenous Australians to have a special day for both, commemoration and reflection.
    This could be akin to Martin Luther Day in the USA, although, obviously, that day doesn’t reflect or fully represent Indigenous Americans.

  27. Steelydan says:
    “I mean these people a professional victims, winging (sic) is a big part of who they are. It is their shtick and for many it is even how they make their money…the irony, getting paid by the Government to pore scorn and hate the nation that pays you”

    But enough about Peter Dutton …

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