Roy Morgan remains the only regularly reporting pollster to have returned for the year on voting intention, but Essential Research presumably isn’t far off. Past experience suggests it should be at least another week before Newspoll is back in the game. Which leaves us with:
• UPDATE: There are now voting intention results for the YouGov poll mentioned below. Labor’s two-party lead is out to 52-48 from 51-49 in the final poll last year, from primary votes of Labor 32% (up three), Coalition 37% (steady), Greens 13% (down two), One Nation 7% (steady).
• This week’s Roy Morgan poll found Labor with a two-party lead of 51.5-48.5, after the Coalition led 51-49 upon the pollster’s return for the year a week ago. The primary votes were Labor 31.5% (up two-and-a-half), Coalition 37% (down two), Greens 12% (down one) and One Nation 4.5% (down half). The poll was conducted from a sample of 1727 last Monday to Sunday.
• Pollster DemosAU, which produced accurate polling on the Indigenous Voice referendum, has a poll showing strong support for a republic referendum in the next five years, but also that any given model for a republic will have a hard time ahead of it. On the former count, 47% said yes and 39% no, a notable contrast with Freshwater Strategy’s finding of 55% opposition to a referendum “now”. On the latter, “direct election with open nomination” trailed the status quo 38-41; “executive president/US model” trailed 35-43; “ARM ‘Australian choice’ model” trailed 32-45; the 1999 referendum proposal trailed 27-48; and the McGarvie model, for all its impeccable credentials, did worst of all at 27-49. The aforementioned are summaries of more detailed question wordings that can be found on the methodology statement. The poll was conducted January 8 to 12 from a sample of 1300.
• YouGov has an Australia Day themed poll finding 49% support for keeping the holiday as its present date, 21% for changing the date, and 30% favouring a “two-day public holiday that celebrates old and new”. Respondents were also which of three options was closest to their view concerning Peter Dutton’s call for a boycott of Woolworths and Big W: support for Dutton’s position, which scored 20%; support for Woolworths and Big W, which scored 14%; and “my main concern with supermarkets now is excessive price rises rather than this issue”, accounting for the remaining 66%. The poll was conducted Friday to Wednesday from a sample of 1532.
Other news:
• Hayden Johnson of the Courier-Mail reports the by-election for Annastacia Palaszczuk’s seat of Inala simultaenously with Queensland’s local government elections on March 16, and that the Liberal National Party is expected to field a candidate for the safe Labor seat. Labor’s candidate is likely to be Margie Nightingale, former teacher and policy adviser to Treasurer Cameron Dick.
• Liberal preselection nominations have closed for Kooyong and Goldstein, where Josh Frydenberg and Tim Wilson were respectively defeated by teal independents in 2022. As previous reports indicated, Kooyong will be a four-way contest between Amelia Hamer, Susan Morris, Michael Flynn and Rochelle Pattison, with Hamer boasting the support of Frydenberg. In addition to Wilson and the previously reported Stephanie Hunt, the Goldstein preselection will also be contested by IPA research fellow Colleen Harkin. Rachel Baxendale of The Australian reports the preselections are likely to be held shortly after the Dunkley by-election.
• Dan Jervis-Bardy of The West Australian reports Patrick Hill, Canning mayor and former police officer, and Howard Ong, a Singapore-born IT consultant, will seek Liberal preselection in Tangney, where the party suffered one of its worst defeats of the 2022 election at the hands of Labor’s Sam Lim. The report says the former member, Ben Morton, is understood to have ruled himself out. It also relates that Senator Michaelia Cash is marshalling support for Moore MP Ian Goodenough in the face of a preselection challenge from former Stirling MP Vince Connelly.
“… eight moments that define Scott Morrison’s legacy as prime minister”
Did anyone determine what the Abbott and Turnbull PM-ships defined?
The Museum of Australian Democracy has a “remembrance” hall for past PMs and what they achieved.
After ATM, good luck…
Don’t listen to him Rainman it is good to be real. He just has so many avatars he doesn’t know which one is real or fake anymore.
________________________________________
I don’t know whether you or Rainman are more berserk. If you had been here more than five minutes you would know that I have never posted under any other name than TPOF. But such is the arrogance of neophytes. Especially pig-headed ones.
His name at home shredded, Scott Morrison looks overseas for a fresh start. Will he find his people? — Malcolm Farr
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2024/jan/23/his-name-at-home-shredded-scott-morrison-looks-overseas-for-a-fresh-start-will-he-find-his-people
Did anyone determine what the Abbott and Turnbull PM-ships defined?
_________________
Turnbull wanted Australians to be more innovative and agile. Most Australians don’t want to be either of those things. They want to be fat and contented.
Two candidates left in the GOP primaries: Trump, Haley and *checks notes* Binkley.
Peuo:
Funnily enough, Binkley actually managed outpoll Asa Hutchinson in Iowa.
Dandy Murray says:
Tuesday, January 23, 2024 at 11:18 pm
Does someone have a list of all the s3 changes floated in the media?
Was there a proposal to increase the tax free threshold?
___________
Don’t have a list but a few snippets:
Phil Coorey @ AFR:
“Under the changes, the 37 per cent tax rate will stay, albeit at a higher threshold of around $135,000, but still freeing up billions at the expense of high-income earners.
Budget economist Chris Richardson said, for example, that just applying the 30 per cent rate for incomes up to $180,000 and the 37 per cent rate on incomes between $180,000 and $200,000 would “save” $1.5 billion a year.
That would enable the government to increase the Low-Income Tax Offset (LITO) from $700 to up to $850 for everyone on incomes up to $50,000. The LITO is an annual tax rebate paid to low-income earners.
The changes, however, are expected to be more substantial in terms of the cost to high-income earners.”
Jack Quail and Ellen Ransley @ News.com.au
“Cabinet met on Tuesday and approved the updated tax plan which is expected to slash the tax rates between $18,200 and $135,000, from July 1.
It is understood the 37 per cent rate – which was to be abolished under the Morrison-era tax plan – will remain, but will instead kick in at $135,000.
The top marginal tax rate of 45 per cent will also remain, but will apply at an expected $190,000 rather than the legislated $200,000.”
David Crowe @ SMH
“Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has cleared the way for a furious political fight over tax reform by securing a cabinet decision to offer bigger tax cuts to workers who earn up to about $150,000 a year by amending the stage 3 tax package.
The move will increase the tax gains for millions of workers by recasting the controversial package when it starts on July 1 at a cost of $20.7 billion in its first year, with no change to the impact on federal revenue.”
Paul Karp in The Guardian is repeating the first two. ABC is still stuck on options without the drip. The Australian has all these details and adds “Mr Albanese is expected to announce the tax changes and other “substantial” cost-of-living relief measures in his Thursday speech at the National Press Club”
And Abbott?
Pueo says:
Tuesday, January 23, 2024 at 11:51 pm
Turnbull wanted Australians to be more innovative and agile. Most Australians don’t want to be either of those things. They want to be fat and contented.
And Abbott?
_______________
Abbott seemed to want pensioners to be emaciated.
*golf clap*
nath says:
Tuesday, January 23, 2024 at 11:53 pm
Pueo says:
Tuesday, January 23, 2024 at 11:51 pm
Turnbull wanted Australians to be more innovative and agile. Most Australians don’t want to be either of those things. They want to be fat and contented.
And Abbott?
_______________
Abbott seemed to want pensioners to be emaciated.
___________
But they could eat raw onions, surely? They are delicious 😉
Rainman
The first Australian to win a Winter Olympic gold medal was Michael Norton in a sit ski at the Lillehammer winter games. Knocked himself unconscious training the day before his first gold medal.
Mendacious Morrison Mooches Morosely orf!
Thank Dog.
Labor finally not too scared to govern – see S3 Amendments.
(Now – that Aukus Malarkey!)
Don’t listen to him Entropy. He’s just not a very nice person, that’s all.
Pueo says:
Tuesday, January 23, 2024 at 11:51 pm
Turnbull wanted Australians to be more innovative and agile. Most Australians don’t want to be either of those things. They want to be fat and contented.
———————————————————————————
I’m fat and contented.
Speaking of culture wars:
Thousands of Māori gather to tell New Zealand’s government: you cannot marginalise us
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/22/thousands-of-maori-gather-to-tell-new-zealands-government-you-cannot-marginalise-us
“I’m fat and contented.”
Good for you, nothing to do with me. Take it up with nath.
Nath
I’m fat and contented.
Not sure the ALP becoming puppets for the greens will earn them any extra votes, but luckily for them Dutton is too much of a moron to run an effective campaign. In stead of pointing out the fact that Albo will become the PM with the biggest negative gearing concessions in resent history, stopping many from buying their first home. Instead Dutton will carry on like a little rich kid who is upset abut his lollipop being taken of him.
Is this the best Australia has?
On New Hampshire: my prediction is that Trump will beat Haley by a comfortable but not overwhelming margin, and then she will drop out soon after and endorse him.
‘ABC chair Ita Buttrose has doubled down on her support for David Anderson after the broadcaster’s union passed a vote of no confidence in the managing director.
More than 100 of the ABC’s union staff rebuked Mr Anderson on Monday over his handling of the sacking of presenter Antoinette Lattouf, who was let go just days into a fill-in radio gig over a retweet.
The ABC has faced fierce backlash over its decision to sack Ms Lattouf after she shared a social media post about the war in Gaza on her own page, with accusations that a letter-writing campaign from a group of pro-Israel lawyers may have influenced the decision.
“It is abhorrent and incorrect that people would suggest that he has shown a lack of support for independent journalism and journalists,” Ms Buttrose said in a statement.’
Source: adelaidenow.com.au
Whenever I hear Anthony Albanese speak I recall a scene from the third season of Blackadder – the scene where a politician says to the Prince Regent:
“… you talk like a plate of beans negotiating their way out of a cow’s digestive system”
That combination of annoying speaking style and needlessly unpopular policies gives the LNP a realistic chance of winning the next election. That’s a chance they wouldn’t have if they faced a government with a charismatic leader and a popular policy agenda.
Treating housing as a human right, guaranteeing a decently paid job for everyone who wants one, and lifting all income support payments above the Henderson Report methodology poverty line of $90 a day, $630 a week, $1260 a fortnight – all within the federal government’s power to address, all actionable within a short time frame, all with tangible benefits that people will notice and be grateful for. A Labor Government that doesn’t do those things isn’t worthy of being associated with the governments of Curtin, Chifley, and Whitlam.
Steven Bradbury was the first.
‘Michael Joseph Norton, OAM[1] (22 April 1964 – 22 August 1996) was an Australian Paralympic alpine skier. As a paraplegic sit skier, he won two gold medals at the 1994 Lillehammer Winter Paralympics.
Norton grew up on a dairy farm in Leongatha, Victoria.[2] He attended Leongatha High School and left in year four.[3] In February 1984, on the way home from work on his motorbike, he hit a rock and came off the bike near Foster in South Gippsland and became paralysed
He was a strong advocate for people with a disability. He came out strongly against Australian sport administrator Arthur Tunstall who stated that it was embarrassing to have disabled athletes at the 1994 Commonwealth Games. Norton stated “It’s obvious he doesn’t know how much disabled people wanted to get to the Games. I mean, they’re breaking their backs to get there.”
Norton was found dead on 22 August 1996 in his home in the Melbourne suburb of Middle Park.[5] Graeme Johnstone, the Victorian Coroner, found that he had died of a heroin overdose.’
Source: Wikipedia
‘In 1994 he became the second Australian skier after Michael Milton to win Gold at the Winter Paralympics, taking home the Slalom and Super-G titles in the LWXI category at the Lillehammer Games.’
Source: snow.org.au
Sad ending for a great Australian.
New thread.
The colluding Cnuts won’t turn back this tide:
‘In a joint statement the Australian Industry Group, Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Business Council of Australia and Minerals Council of Australia said the tax cuts “have not only been legislated: they have won support at two general elections”.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/jan/23/labor-poised-to-alter-stage-three-tax-cuts-for-cost-of-living-relief-as-bitter-stoush-with-coaltion-looms
”
FUBARsays:
Tuesday, January 23, 2024 at 10:49 pm
TPOF says:
Tuesday, January 23, 2024 at 10:13 pm
“the Opposition is vicious and amoral.”
Cut the self righteous bollocks.
”
Right back to ya.
”
nathsays:
Tuesday, January 23, 2024 at 11:44 pm
Did anyone determine what the Abbott and Turnbull PM-ships defined?
_________________
Turnbull wanted Australians to be more innovative and agile. Most Australians don’t want to be either of those things. They want to be fat and contented.
”
Abbott for ‘shirt fronting ‘
Para Olympics and Olympics are different competitions.
Can someone explain to me why the S3 regig would have cost the last election, but now, having added only ‘lied to the electorate’ to an otherwise largely unchanged matrix around the S3 question, it will be staggeringly popular.
It seems one or the other is delusional, or perhaps they are just equally wrong to each side of reality.
Boerwar on Tue at 5.22 pm
The point of the analogy between Gaza and Tasmania is historical. Tasmania has received support from the mainland because it is constitutionally part of Australia, breaching one vote one value etc.
Undoubtedly, Tasmania has contributed a lot to Australia over the years, including to the development of Australian common law and the federation by default (1983 dams case etc).
Re Gaza, you have misunderstood the analogy by not seeing either the history or the big picture.
The point is the huge cost, in humanitarian and geopolitical terms, of the failure by the UN Security Council, in 1947, 1967, 1973, 1987 and since to ensure Palestinian self-determination. The aid that you complain about is a minor part of that huge cost. Financially, it is miniscule compared to the war expenses. By the way, the Ukrainians are now paying additional costs, while Putin is sitting pretty.
In other words, what would have happened if Gaza and the West Bank had, by analogy, been treated as constitutional entities from soon after the UN was created? A much better outcome than what has occurred over the decades. Obviously there were big obstacles, but the UNSC, i.e. the US, have failed.
Indeed, you cannot historically treat Gaza as just an isolated, mendicant territory. But that is what has been done by the Security Council, because of the veto, with all the calamitous consequences.
First Albo came for the Robodebt architects, but no-one spoke up for them.
Then Albo stole half my $9000 tax cut, and no-one was left to speak for me.
12 winners for every loser: The calculation Albanese is betting on
Shane Wright
By Shane Wright
January 24, 2024 — 7.30pm
Dutton response “ but… but…but.but…but “
Democracy Sausage says:
Tuesday, January 23, 2024 at 11:05 pm
Speaking of the ABC, what a shame the Drum has been replaced by repeats of Backroads and Hard Quiz.
And Laura Tingle tonight interviewing Eric Bana.
If the ABC is getting a shakeup, maybe they can start with the news and current affairs division. The standard of their federal politics department leaves a lot to be desired.
As for the Coalition, I think Andrew Hastie will be leader at the next election.
————-
I am very disappointed with this latest ABC programming. Not much to watch anymore. I enjoyed the Drum, many on Facebook wrote in and complained about dropping it. I didn’t see any bias, topics were relevant, different views aired.
And certainly seems an increase in celebrity interviews, also on Australian Story. Bland is the plan, it seems. Strange as I thought Labor increased ABC funding. More investigative journalism desperately needed.
Fortunately The Guardian Australia online covers many news topics. And there other smaller sites.
Regarding Hastie you might be right. Would bring many WA voters to the Federal Liberals, Labor might lose a seat or two. And his military background would be a plus in Liberal eyes.
Ten news reporting that the NSW Premier has not changed his views of the opera house protesters following the ‘forensic’ view of the footage and that hate speech laws will be revised to make it harder to use loopholes (gas/where) at protests to get around said laws.
IMO The only reason forensic experts should have been employed to asses the footage would be to identify all involved and offer them the choice of either 20 years jail or deportation.
A big whoops and failure on my part re the posting about Sudan!
I should have read the whole post that ventured into the woeful state of affairs concerning the 2 million and counting casualties of their civil war!
I didn’t and assumed it was a post about the latest factional struggle between the competing south sudan actors.
My bad! My initial post regarding ‘care factor zero’ was on based on a wrong assumption on my part and not including to the tragic casualty count. But my sentiment still stands re continued western intervention into africa. Additionally, if the UN had kept all its promises relating to statehood building institutional aid for SS from the get-go in 2005 I doubt we’d be having these issues today within the territory.