Mid-week miscellany: Cook by-election, Morgan poll, SA redistribution (open thread)

Reports suggest the by-election for Scott Morrison’s seat of Cook is likely to be held in April, with a contested Liberal preselection looming.

A second federal by-election is now in the works after Scott Morrison announced his retirement from politics yesterday, adding to the pile of looming electoral events canvassed in the previous post:

• The Sydney Morning Herald reports the by-election for Scott Morrison’s seat of Cook could be held concurrently with the Dunkley by-election on March 2 if Morrison formalises his resignation this week, but Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reports it will “not be held until April at the earliest”. Liberal sources quoted by Alexandra Smith of the Sydney Morning Herald said Sutherland Shire mayor Carmelo Pesce would nominate for preselection, with one factional moderate rating him a “shoo-in”. However, Simon Kennedy, who ran unsuccessfully for Bennelong in 2022, was also likely to run and would have backing from conservatives. Also mentioned was Gwen Cherne, “who works in veterans affairs”, and former Premier Mike Baird, though it seems entreaties to him are likely to fall on deaf ears.

• The weekly Roy Morgan federal poll has Labor’s two-party lead out from 51.5-48.5 to 52.5-47.5, from primary votes of Labor 32.5% (up one), Coalition 36% (down one), Greens 12.5% (up half) and One Nation 5% (up half). The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1675.

• The procedure for a South Australian state redistribution has commenced with the call for submissions, which are due by April 19. Draft boundaries are scheduled for publication on August 15, with finalisation to follow in November.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,806 comments on “Mid-week miscellany: Cook by-election, Morgan poll, SA redistribution (open thread)”

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  1. Having watched “Nemesis “ , I feel particularly sorry for Ken Wyatt and his failed attempts from within the LNP tent. Russell Broadbent also showed some decency, but what bothers me is how those responsible for the disastrous Robodebt, detention centre cruelty, NBN , etc., seems to be walking away unscathed .
    For mine, Morrison came across as the most dangerous , (though Abbott’s discussion with Houston was sobering )
    and I suspect that he used his prayer groups to great effect.
    Memo to self is to watch the rest of the series on Iview during the day…its made for a sleepless night!

  2. Wyatt gets no sympathy from me. He knew what he was getting himself in for, he just thought they would see him as one of the good ones and treat him differently than the rest of the non-white, non-rich members of the LNP.

  3. Greensborough Growlersays:
    Monday, January 29, 2024 at 10:56 pm
    UNRWA supporting Hamas gets more legs.



    I just read this article thanks to Late Riser sharing it at 12.07am.

    Even if it proves to be correct that there is evidence that ten people amongst thousands working for UNRWA in Gaza were helping ‘Hamas stage the attack that set off the war in Gaza, or of aiding it in the days after it’, how does that prove that UNRWA supports Hamas?

    This is analogous to saying if a few of the neo-nazis on the train in Sydney worked for the NSW Public Service then, therefore, the NSW Public Service supports fascism and should be shut down. This seems to be your argument and the argument of those countries suspending aid.

    This article states:

    ‘The Israeli accusations come against the backdrop of decades-long frictions with UNRWA. Since 1949, the agency has cared for the families of Palestinians who fled or were forced from their homes during the wars surrounding the creation of the state of Israel. The organization provides vital aid to more than five million Palestinian refugees scattered across the Middle East, whose future and status have never been resolved despite years of negotiations.‘

    And that Israel’s real problem with UNRWA is that:

    ‘Its very existence, they say, prevents Palestinian refugees from integrating into new communities and stokes their dreams of one day returning to what is now Israel — a goal that Israel says it will never allow.’

    So, I’m still in agreement with the agency’s commissioner-general, Philippe Lazzarini, who has warned of impending catastrophe.

    ‘“It would be immensely irresponsible to sanction an agency and an entire community it serves because of allegations of criminal acts against some individuals, especially at a time of war, displacement and political crises in the region,” he said.’

  4. c@tmomma @ 3.18pm
    It is self-evident why the CLP never preselected Allegra Spender or Kate Chaney.
    They are intelligent, successful businesswomen.
    They are women.
    A combination which scares the CLP blokes that control their preselection processes.

  5. Entropysays:
    Tuesday, January 30, 2024 at 12:42 am

    Thank you for your concern. We had close to 100 mm (96 mm at the Kingaroy Airport) of rain between 7.00 pm and 3.00 am. Fortunately no heavy winds involved and Kingaroy does not sit on a flood plain – so no threat of floods.

    I was planning on mowing today (the grass seems to grow before my eyes), but the ground is too soggy. Will probably have to wait until I need the machete to fight my way through the jungle which is normally my lawn.

    Still I prefer it to the dry months, when the backyard resembles a dust bowl.

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