Live Commentary
2:35pm Friday Biden finished with 63.9% in the Dem primary, with Phillips at 19.6% and “other write-ins” at 8.3%.
11:36am Thursday With almost all votes counted, Trump wins by 54.3-43.3, in line with the 11-point forecast from the NYT model. Turnout for the Republican primary was a New Hampshire record at 322,000, and compares with just 118,000 in the Democratic primary. In the Dem primary, Biden is on 55.8% and will reach about 65% once the remaining 10.1% of “unprocessed write-ins” are counted. Phillips was a distant second with 19.5%.
4:54pm I had an article about the New Hampshire results for The Conversation that also featured general election polls.
4:47pm Biden will easily win the Dem Feb 3 South Carolina primary and Feb 6 Nevada primary. I won’t cover the early Feb contests, but will be back for the Feb 13 US federal by-election in New York’s third, the Feb 14 Indonesian election and two Feb 15 UK by-elections in Conservative-held seats.
4:41pm The next Republican contest is Nevada, which holds a non-binding primary Feb 6 and a caucus Feb 8 that binds its 26 delegates. Candidates had to choose to nominate for either the caucus or primary. Haley is on the primary ballot, and Trump on the caucus ballot. Trump will win the delegates, but can Haley do OK in the primary? After that it’s South Carolina on Feb 24.
4:35pm With 87% counted, Trump leads by 54.5-43.6. According to exit polls, Trump won registered Republicans 74-25 (50% of electorate), but Haley won undeclared by 66-34 (46% of electorate). This huge vote for Haley from non-Republicans isn’t likely to apply in other states. It probably explains why polls overstated Trump’s NH margin.
2:50pm With 71% counted, Trump leads by 54.6-43.8, but the NYT forecast is still at Trump by 11.
2:14pm With 58% counted, Trump leads by 53.6-45.0. The NYT forecast is still Trump by 11.
1:16pm With 36% counted, Trump leads by 53.4-45.6. The NYT forecast is for a final result of Trump by 11.
12:30pm With 24% counted, Trump leads by 52.5-46.6. The NY Times forecast has a final 11-point margin predicted.
12:05pm With all NH polls now closed, Trump is the projected winner. The NY Times live forecast gives Trump a win by an estimated 12 point margin.
11:51am With 17% in, Trump’s lead is near double digits at 54.4-44.7.
11:31am With 10% in, Trump leads by 53-46. Dave Wasserman has called for Trump.
11:22am Trump now has a 51-48 lead over Haley in the Rep primary with 5% in.
11:20am In the Dem primary, “write-ins” (which will nearly all be for Biden) lead Dean Phillips by 73-24.
11:15am With 2% reporting, Haley leads Trump by 51-48.
8:54am Two late NH polls give Trump a 20-point and 22-point lead over Haley, causing the FiveThirtyEight aggregate to stretch to a 54-36 lead for Trump.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
The large majority of polls in New Hampshire close at 11am AEDT today. Polls in the 13 cities stay open until 12pm, and this will be the earliest time for a race call. The 22 NH Republican delegates are allocated proportionally with a 10% threshold. Information on US poll closing times and delegate allocation is from The Green Papers.
On Sunday US time, Ron DeSantis withdrew from the presidential race and endorsed Donald Trump, leaving Nikki Haley as Trump’s sole challenger for the Republican nomination. DeSantis had been viewed as Trump’s main threat, but he had fallen from 34% in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate of national Republican polls in January 2023 to 11% when he withdrew, as Trump increased from 45% to 66%. Trump beat DeSantis in Iowa last week by almost 30 points.
Haley has only 12% in national Republican polls. Since Trump’s big win in Iowa, he has received many endorsements from prominent Republicans, and has a massive lead in endorsements according to FiveThirtyEight’s tracker.
In NH polls, Trump has surged since Iowa, and leads Haley by 52.3-36.7 in FiveThirtyEight. One poll gave Trump just a two-point lead, but the three most recent polls, which account for DeSantis’ exit, gave Trump 19-to-27-point leads.
The February 24 Republican primary in Haley’s home state of South Carolina is probably the last chance to stop Trump winning the Republican nomination, but Trump has a massive 61-25 lead over Haley in SC polls. SC is the first state to use a winner takes all/most formula for its Republican delegates. The 29 statewide delegates are awarded WTA, and the 21 congressional district delegates (three per district) are WTA by district.
For the Democratic primary, NH was reduced from 32 to ten Democratic delegates for holding its primary earlier than Democrats wanted. Owing to this rule breach, candidates were told to ignore NH, and Joe Biden is not on the ballot paper. However, Biden is using a “write-in” campaign, where voters write in someone’s name.
The first proper Democratic contest is the South Carolina primary on February 3, followed by the Nevada primary on February 6. Republican Nevada delegates will be allocated by a February 8 caucus, not a primary. Candidates could choose to be listed on either the primary or the caucus ballot. Trump is expected to have a huge win in the caucus.
In national Democratic primary polls, Biden has 72%, Marianne Williamson 5% and Dean Phillips 3%. Democratic delegates are allocated proportionally with a 15% threshold. Neither the Republican nor Democratic nominations are at all competitive.
On Super Tuesday March 5, many states will vote, and 41.6% of Democratic delegates and 47.4% of Republican delegates will be decided by this date. Trump and Biden are likely to effectively seal their parties’ nominations.
Indonesian election: February 14
Presidential and legislative elections will be held in Indonesia on February 14. Indonesia is in Australia’s region, and there are over 200 million registered voters. If no presidential candidate wins a majority, there will be a June 26 runoff. The 580 lower house seats are elected by proportional representation in multi-member electorates with a 4% national threshold. Senatorial candidates cannot be members of a political party. Four senators are elected per province for a total of 152.
Incumbent president Joko Widodo of the secularist and socially liberal Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) has served two five-year terms since his election in 2014. In the presidential election, Prabowo Subianto is the candidate of a religious and right-wing alliance, while Ganjar Pranowo represents the PDI-P and the third candidate is independent Anies Baswedan, the former governor of Jakarta.
The polls imply Prabowo is the clear favourite, with most recent polls giving him 45-50% and two of the four most recent giving him over 50%, enough to win without a runoff. Gibran Rakabuming, the eldest child of Widodo, is Prabowo’s running mate.
Trump probably wins by 20, Haley suspends her campaign, and Trump has the nomination in the bag.
Dean Phillips, who is running for the Democratic nomination, I will be interested to see how many votes he gets in New Hampshire
Quite sad about how the Indonesian election seems to be going. For most of his two terms, he seemed like a general force for good in the country, but him and his son backing in Prabowo is disgusting. For those who aren’t aware, Prabowo tried StopTheSteal, twice, before Trump tried it, along with allegations of atrocities he comitted in the 90s and just generally getting in to bed with far right muslim fundamentalism in transparent attempts to get elected. It’s patently obvious he doesn’t actually subscribe to muslim fundamentalism, but that hasn’t seemed to bother Indonesian voters at large.
New Hampshire Primary Exit Polls Are Loaded With Bad News For Trump
The record turnout potentially in the New Hampshire primary isn’t full of MAGA supporters, but is split between Republicans and Independents.
Here are some of the results:
Other early findings —
Composition of the electorate:
Registered Republican: 49%
Registered undeclared: 47%
Ideology:
Very conservative: 24%
Somewhat Conservative: 39%
Moderate: 31%*
*was 9% in Iowa
— David Wright (@DavidWright_7) January 23, 2024
These numbers match up with some on the ground observations that turnout in New Hampshire is high areas with large percentages of independent voters and moderate Republicans.
There was talk earlier in the day of Trump potentially setting records for Republican support in an Iowa primary.
That idea seems to be evaporating as the composition of the electorate becomes known.
This is the sort of exit polling demographics that Nikki Haley needs to be competitive in New Hampshire and pull an upset.
https://www.politicususa.com/2024/01/23/new-hampshire-primary-exit-polls-are-loaded-with-bad-news-for-trump.html
Trump Makes Panicked All Caps Post About New Hampshire Election
He seems concerned.
Donald Trump appears panicked over exit polling showing a closer race than he anticipated in the New Hampshire Republican Primary.
With the polls still open, Trump wrote on Truth Social:
“SO RIDICULOUS THAT DEMOCRATS AND INDEPENDENTS ARE ALLOWED TO VOTE IN THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY ESPECIALLY SINCE CROOKED JOE BIDEN HAS ABANDONED NEW HAMPSHIRE- -BUT WORD IS WE ARE DOING REALLY WELL!!!”
Trump’s sudden headwinds come from a pool of New Hampshire Republican Primary voters that look much different than those in Iowa. Per an MSNBC exit poll, 47% of voters in New Hampshire identified as Republican, 45% as Independent, and 8% as Democratic.
https://www.meidastouch.com/news/trump-makes-panicked-post-about-new-hampshire-election
Godspeed Nikki Haley
None of this makes any difference to the end result. Trump is going to win the general election, even the popular vote, almost fairly and squarely (only voter suppression nothwithstanding).
How does the NYT get a 12 point margin when its results page is showing a 7 point marging 53-46% (which in Australia would be called a 3% margin)?
Bit of a rock show for the Dems having Biden as a write in candidate. He probably won’t remember so it doesn’t matter.
The only thing that keeps Nimarata going is a stream of Koch brothers and Democrat cash.
FUBAR, NYT is forecasting the remaining votes, which are presumably more pro-Trump than those counted so far.
Definitely tighter than predicted. Is it enough for Haley to continue?
What has Haley got to lose by staying in? Very little. Trump is not giving her a role in his second term if (and that is a big IF) gets one. She is not going to stand for governor again, there are no senate spots open for her to stand for atm.
She is the last contender standing and the next contest is her home state. Might win there and if Trump keeps stumbling in his speech pattern she might be able to make a bigger issue out of that then going into Super Tuesday. Trump looking more deranged every week and there is clearly a large section of the Republicans who are not “Trump cult” members who can see that come summer and autumn this could be a serious issue.
I can’t see Haley gaining enough ground on Trump to win from here (assuming nothing takes him out of the race). I expect she will roll through to Super Tuesday before conceding.
Nikki Haley is entitled to keep going as long as she wants. For all we know, by November Trump could be a convicted felon, and he’d be ineligible to run for office if that was the situation.
What amuses me is how wedded to Trump the modern Republican Party is, he pretty much owns the whole organisation.
https://abcnews.go.com/538/trump-haley-new-hampshire-analysis/story?id=106564132
@Adrian
“It probably explains why polls understated Trump’s NH margin.”
You mean ‘overstated’ Trump’s NH margin.
Haley lost NH on Iowa caucus night.
It was very fine margins, coming in only just behind Ron DeSantis, but that tiny % made all the difference to the narrative and sucked Haley’s momentum away in NH.
In Iowa a combination of the following did for Haley:
1. Record-breaking cold (straight after a snowstorm at the weekend had left deep snow around) leading to very low turnout – we’ll never know for sure, but I remain convinced that this actually helped Trump, whose supporters were more diehard, and hurt DeSantis and Haley. If you were a moderate, Democrat or Indy with good intentions but believed Trump was too far ahead for it to make much difference, would you endanger yourself going out on a night like that?
2. Finishing with 19% to DeSantis’s 21%, i.e. a 3rd place not a 2nd place finish. This needs to be seen in the context of point 1 above. Had she finished 3rd but with 23% to DeSantis’s 25% and Trump’s 42%, the story would have been about how Trump underperformed polls and DeSantis and Haley are still in it. Her momentum in NH would not have been blunted, and possibly there might have been a small % of switchers in NH from Trump to DeSantis as well.
3. Failure to control the narrative when the results came through. Surely Haley and campaign should have gameplanned for the scenario that emerged and could have manufactured a celebration of hitting what the polls predicted for her combined with a narrative re the weather and only 7% of GOP voters coming out in the extreme weather. Instead, it was all about Trump’s record win and DeSantis’s minor boost from coming 2nd whilst Haley was more mute than she should have been and her campaign slightly downbeat / not sure-footed.
Had Haley and DeSantis’s 19% and 21% in Iowa been the other way round, I remain convinced that Haley would have won NH with or without DeSantis remaining in the race. That said, coming in 3rd in Iowa would have meant that DeSantis dropped out no later than the morning after Iowa and bolstered Haley’s message of it now being a 2-horse race (which many didn’t believe in the initial days after Iowa – by the time DeSantis dropped out, an air of inevitability around Trump’s nomination had taken hold with Trump racking up influential endorsements that would not have come until later otherwise).
Incredible how fine margins of an already tiny electorate can have such an outsized influence on who ends up with the most powerful – and difficult – job in the world.
BTsays, sorry about the under- vs over-stated error. Fixed now.