The first two polls after the government’s tax cuts backflip are out, though neither was conducted entirely after the new policy was announced on Thursday. The Essential Research poll, which was conducted Wednesday to Monday with a sample of 1201, is as yet lacking voting intention numbers, which will hopefully be along later today. As reported in The Guardian, the poll presented respondents with a description of the stage three tax cuts as originally proposed and a choice of four responses, with only 22% favouring that the cuts proceed unchanged, up two from November. Of the remainder, 47% preferred they be “revised so they mostly benefit those on low and middle incomes”, in line with the government’s new policy, up six; 19% favoured an option of delaying cuts for those on more than $200,000 until “economic conditions improve”, down three; and 13% opposed the cuts altogether, down three.
UPDATE: Essential Research’s voting intention numbers are Labor 32% (up one from mid-December), Coalition 34% (steady), Greens 13% (steady) and One Nation 7% (steady) with 5% undecided. Its 2PP+ measure has Labor leading 48-46, in from 49-46.
The weekly voting intention poll from Roy Morgan had only half its field work after the announcement, being conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1688. The two-party headline of 50.5-49.5 in favour of Labor is in from 52.5-47.5 last week, though that result was something of an outlier: the previous four polls, conducted from late November to early January with a week’s break for Christmas, were all in the range from 51-49 to 49-51. On the primary vote, Labor is down one-and-a-half to 31% and the Coalition is up by the same amount to 37.5%, with both the Greens and One Nation up half a point to 13.5% and 5% respectively.
Essential Research also asked about respondents’ personal financial circumstances, which reportedly showed improvement “over summer”, though I can’t find the earlier poll being compared to. Eleven per cent rated their circumstances as comfortable, 38% as secure (up seven), 39% as struggling a bit (down four), and 12% as in serious difficulty (down two). Regarding the Israel-Palestine conflict, 67% felt Australia should stay out entirely, up six since November, with a five point drop in support for “active assistance to Palestine” to 16% and a one point drop for Israel to 17%. A presumably related question on the ABC found an even 39% for and against the proposition that it was independent and unbiased. Support for a republic was at 42% and opposition at 35%; on Australia Day, 40% supported the status quo, 18% a separate new date, and 31% a new date in addition to the existing one.
In other news, yet another by-election is on the horizon after Labor MP Jim Madden announced his resignation from the Queensland state seat of Ipswich West. Like the by-election for Annastacia Palaszczuk’s seat of Inala, this will be held simultaneously with the local government elections on March 16, at which Madden will run as a candidate for Ipswich City Council. Madden had previously announced he would retire at the next election after a series of unwelcome headlines last year, including claims of bullying and harassment of electorate office staff. Labor had already preselected Wendy Bourne, a Right-aligned former staffer to Annastacia Palaszczuk, who was unopposed after the withdrawal of Neisha Traill, an official with the Left faction Electrical Trades Union.
Griff, the 2024 Dutton annus horribilis- and it will have nothing to do with circular , brown openings
Politcal Nightwatchmansays:
Friday, February 2, 2024 at 10:22 pm
1. Miranda doesn’t get Baird in to Federal Parliament.
=======================================================
It was Cook he confused it with Miranda. Possibly because both places have lots of Reavers?.
At State level the Liberals have been much more moderate, at least here in NSW but also SA and Tas as far as I can tell from this distance. NSW has a history of fairly centrist Coalition Government since the the end of Labor dominance in 1988: Premiers Nick Griener, John Fahey, Barry O’Farrell, Mike Baird, Gladys Berijiklian, Dom Perrottet, none of them the sort of ugly hard right characters who dominate the Federal Liberals.
Well, I guess we’ll see for sure what the state of power is in the Liberal party at the end of the month, if this talk of a motion in the NSW executive branch to expel Alex Hawke from the party comes to fruition, or not.
Since this came from an already expelled far-right conservative former Liberal from the NSW executive talking about it on Sky News’s Outsiders, I have doubts it’s an actual thing, since those people are pretty mad, but, if they go as far as successfully expelling the Liberal member for Mitchell (one of the safest Liberal seats in NSW) with all the mess that entails, then yeah, that would be a clear sign that big changes are afoot.
Steve777says:
Friday, February 2, 2024 at 10:42 pm
At State level the Liberals have been much more moderate, at least here in NSW but also SA and Tas as far as I can tell from this distance. NSW has a history of fairly centrist Coalition Government since the the end of Labor dominance in 1988: Premiers Nick Griener, John Fahey, Barry O’Farrell, Mike Baird, Gladys Berijiklian, Dom Perrottet, none of them the sort of ugly hard right characters who dominate the Federal Liberals.
=================================================
All that Opus Dei education and Dom Perrottet still turned out a moderate. B.A Santamaria will be turning in his grave.
Note: It is hard to turn in your grave when you were buried with your right arm in a Roman salute position.
BBC: Sudan is in the midst of Civil war, where 14 million people are displaced and over 10000 people are killed. No solution in sight. The negotiator says Sudan is neglected by international community.
Dom Perrottet, while from the Right faction of the NSW Liberals and a practicing Catholic, didn’t initiate a marked change of direction from that of his predecessor Gladys B. He was a bit more gung-ho about re-opening from the last Covid lockdown, so it might have ended a couple of weeks earlier than if Gladys were still running the show. On the other hand he replaced the State flag on the Harbour Bridge with the Aboriginal flag and came out early in support of the Voice.
in their quest to capture the bogan outer suburban working class vote from Labor.
To be honest where is this so called “outer suburban working class bogan” at least in 2024?
At least here in Sydney anyway if you go to the outer suburban areas like Campbelltown or Penrith you will mostly find Indians, Asians, Arabs and other ethnic groups ahead of the dwindling Anglo community
Poor Cameronsays:
Friday, February 2, 2024 at 11:12 pm
in their quest to capture the bogan outer suburban working class vote from Labor.
To be honest where is this so called “outer suburban working class bogan” at least in 2024?
=========================================================
There all over 60 and living on the Gold Coast now.
Poor Cameron, I’ve been in Penrith for almost a decade now- Lindsay is still an Anglo remnant preserve but Indians in particular are moving in at an accelerated pace. The Libs hold the seat for no other reason than the local and still intact Anglo majority see voting this way as a kind of security blanket firmly attached to their kith and kin in the east and north of the Sydney basin.
But regarding Dutton, he announced and it was leaked widely by strategists that his solution to make up for teal losses was to attempt to court the increasingly social and religiously conservative muslim and other associated communities in the outer metro seats in the hope of making them liberal seats lol.
Additionally, most of these new Indian arrivals are from the highest Brahmin caste and themselves are naturally hyper capitalist and anti welfare policy in general for those less fortunate- they supplied the Liberal candidate at the last state election to run in Londonderry, for instance. And they voted No last year as an overall cohort. Perhaps future pickings for the Libs ?
But regarding Dutton, he announced and it was leaked widely by strategists that his solution to make up for real loses was to attempt to court the increasingly social and religiously conservative muslim and other associated communities in the outer metro seats in the hope of making them liberal seats lol.
Maybe he should have those seats, maybe its time that us on the left have a hard think to ourselves that the views that some groups in this country have are not congruent to our centre left way of thinking of fairness and equality.
Gays for Palestine comes to mind.
Our side of politics needs to wake up to this.
True Cameron
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Ven says:
Friday, February 2, 2024 at 11:10 pm
BBC: Sudan is in the midst of Civil war, where 14 million people are displaced and over 10000 people are killed. No solution in sight. The negotiator says Sudan is neglected by international community.
——————————————————————————-
Sudan truly is a tragedy. Just in my time of being aware of the conflicts, there have been the civil wars that led to South Sudan breaking away and the appalling Dafur conflict, which have seen close to 2 million killed and more displaced.
In the latest conflict there was an attempt by the U.S. and Saudi Arabia to bring peace, which resulted in the Treaty of Jeddah. It didn’t stop the fighting and pretty much after that the international community has washed its hands of the whole affair.
Sudan is a prime example of a country that is impossible to governed democratically. It’s not even as simple as the Arab Muslim/African Christian divide:
‘There are 19 major ethnic groups and over 597 ethnic subgroups speaking more than 100 languages and dialects. These multifaceted ethnic divisions make Sudan a very diverse country, with each ethnic group having a unique culture of its own and lifestyle. Arab speaking Muslims are considered the largest single ethnic group at about 70% of the total population, while other ethnicities such as Nubians, Copts and Beja and others make up the remainder.’
Source: worldatlas.com
This pretty much makes democracy unviable and probably explains why, since independence, it’s mainly been under military rule with numerous coups and seemingly perpetual conflict and bloodshed.
Associated Press:
AP-NORC poll finds an uptick in positive ratings of the US economy, but it’s not boosting Biden
The evidence of a stronger economy has yet to spill over into greater support for Biden. The new poll puts his approval rating at 38%, which is roughly where that number has stood for most of the past two years. Biden’s approval rating on handling the economy is similar, at 35%.
https://apnews.com/article/biden-poll-survey-economy-trump-election-dca1b60f6749d5eb50bc0e7600814855
Care factor rainman?? big fat duck egg….. you can’t help those who refuse to help themselves
leftieBrawler says:
Saturday, February 3, 2024 at 12:16 am
Care factor rainman?? big fat duck egg….. you can’t help those who refuse to help themselves
——————————————————————————-
I know that you’re certainly beyond help.
Rainman you remind me of the bleeding-heart Rex Douglas school of manic far-left social warrior types. None of you have anything original to post- just regurgitation of whatever ‘save the world’ rubbish that enters your various zuckerburg- approved app feeds.
Just like every issue in sub-Saharan Africa how long do you think is reasonable to continue to have the west throw valuable dollars and resources at trying to improve their collective lots by trying to force onto them the institutions and values of the western world??.
Africa needs to be allowed to be Africa. Her social norms, value systems and cultural and societal ways have been ingrained for millennia.
Well, if I’m giving you the shits I guess I’m doing something worthwhile.
GG:
“Rockliff could argue that the current Parliament is not representative of the will of the Electors as decided by the voters at the last Election due to defections and retirements. So a new Election and mandate is necessary.”
Exactly, the retirements are one thing but the defections creating a parliament that is not at all what the voters voted for is what he is using to argue such a hard line on what they can do in his current proposal.
Rainman, please answer my question re western intervention in 21st century SSA?
I don’t think Rainman ever said anything about western invention, they were just pointing out that it’s an awful situation, to which you responded with I can only interpret as borderline sociopathy.
Kevin,
Are you aware of the rumours on the grape vine that Rockliff had a crisis call this week with the national Lib exec to talk him down from encouraging his caucus to formally leave the party mid-term in an attempt to continue to govern as an informal grouping in the hope of convincing the rogue actors to not withdraw confidence and supply??
Asha pragmatism drove my response. Your accusations of sociopathy are little more than cheap tricks at discrediting my angle of dissent to his arguments.
It’s a classical case of western eyes interpreting an African issue through western eyes and trying to apply a western solution. It hasn’t worked since diamonds were found on the highvelds of SA over 250 years ago.
Mind you, I can’t say I agree with Rainman’s point about democracy not being viable in countries with huge cultural and sectarian divides. It absolutely can be… provided both the people and their representatives show some empathy for those who are not them and think beyond their own team.
The problems arise when nearly every party / candidate is running as a representative of their cultural/racial/religious grouping, most voters are simply voting along the same lines, and then those that get elected are only interesting in looking after the people who voted for them.
I’m not going to pretend I know what the solution is in the countries where that sadly does happen, but I don’t think it’s a dictatorship. All that achieves is the dominance of those who won whatever conflict put them in charge and the oppression of everybody else.
Yeah, this strikes me as rather lacking in empathy:
Fair enough if you don’t think there’s anything we can do. I’m sadly enclined to agree. But surely you agree that these are horrible, tragic situations, right?
R… Right?
(And once again, you seem to be responding to an argument that Rainman never actually made. Seriously, when did they advocate for western intervention?)
A big whoops and failure on my part re the posting about Sudan!
I should have read the whole post that ventured into the woeful state of affairs concerning the 2 million and counting casualties of their civil war!
I didn’t and assumed it was a post about the latest factional struggle between the competing south sudan actors.
My bad! My initial post regarding ‘care factor zero’ was on based on a wrong assumption on my part and not including to the tragic casualty count. But my sentiment still stands re continued western intervention into africa. Additionally, if the UN had kept all its promises relating to statehood building institutional aid for SS from the get-go in 2005 I doubt we’d be having these issues today within the territory.
leftiebrawler
All g, we’ve all been there!
asha, thanks for the understanding
leftieBrawler: No I have not heard remotely any such thing. The rogue actors’ issue is with him far more than the Liberal Party, so it wouldn’t work.
As far as I understand, the Tasmanian defectors were from the right of the party anyway, so I doubt Rockcliff breaking away from the Liberals to form what you’d assume would be a moderate small-l party would mollify them.
Dutton’s Dilemma:
‘Liberal MPs are split on whether to support the Labor government’s stage-three tax changes, with some angling to oppose the legislation even as leader Peter Dutton signals the opposition may not stand in the way of larger refunds for millions of Australians.’
Julian the Lesser ‘will use a speech at the National Young Liberal Convention … to accuse the government’s amended stage-three plan of “resurrecting bracket creep”. “I believe the Coalition should oppose the Albanese tax increases [!] – because we believe in keeping taxes low [?] …”’
Andrew Bragg advocates ‘sticking by the original stage three-plan … “We should insist on the removal of the 37% tax threshold. That was the centrepiece of the reform, it’s been gutted.”’
Pass the popcorn, please.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/feb/03/liberal-mps-split-on-support-for-labors-stage-three-tax-cut-changes
I knew that the Australian Federal Police have previously been accused of being incompetent and displaying political bias, but now they have pretty much been accused of child abuse by a magistrate.
‘Counter-terrorism police encouraged an autistic 13-year-old boy in his fixation on Islamic State in an undercover operation after his parents sought help from the authorities.
The boy, given the pseudonym Thomas Carrick, was later charged with terror offences after an undercover officer “fed his fixation” and “doomed” the rehabilitation efforts Thomas and his parents had engaged in, a Victorian children’s court magistrate found.
Thomas, an NDIS recipient with an IQ of 71, was first reported to police by Victoria’s Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) and then by his parents because of his fixation with Islamic State, which included him accessing extremist material online and making threats to other students
On 17 April 2021, his parents went to a police station and asked for help
The court granted a permanent stay on the charges in October last year, but a copy of the decision has only recently been published.
“The community would not expect law enforcement officers to encourage a 13-14 year old child towards racial hatred, distrust of police and violent extremism, encouraging the child’s fixation on ISIS,” magistrate Lesley Fleming said in the decision.
The community would not expect law enforcement to use the guise of a rehabilitation service to entice the parents of a troubled child to engage in a process that results in potential harm to the child.
“The conduct engaged in by the JCTT and the AFP falls so profoundly short of the minimum standards expected of law enforcement offices [sic] that to refuse this [stay] application would be to condone and encourage further instances of such conduct.”
“Fleming found the JCTT also deliberately delayed charging Thomas with offences until after he turned 14, as it made it harder for him to use the defence of doli incapax, which refers to the concept that a child is not criminally responsible for their actions.’
Source: theguardian.com
I just heard on ABC 24 news that Joe Biden’s executive order imposing sanctions on settlers who violently attack Palestinians in the West Bank has not only been rejected by Netanyahu as unnecessary but a senior Israeli cabinet minister has now labelled it anti-Semitic.
Don’t forget, Mr. Potato Head sits son a 1.7% margin.
A minor percentage swing of 2 – 3 %, in Queensland, could see him gone.
I just heard Chris Minns on ABC 24 news telling NSW Labor backbenchers who have expressed concern for Palestinians in Gaza that they should run for Federal Parliament.
Which sounds to me like he’s telling them to fuck off.
New thread.
Rainman, no doubt that move is just a set piece designed for internal consumption and signals to me that in fact Biden is going to stay and contest the November election. I wonder if the new batch of shock polling over the last week or so that in some puts him well ahead of Trump had anything to do with it?.
Has Netanyahu gone too far in his West Bank crusade ? Perhaps…… but so did Hamas when they decided to do what they did on October 7th.
Like him our not one has to applaud his resolve. He appears set on gutting Gaza from the inside out no matter the cost in the hope that moving forward they will learn, just as farm animals learn after their first tangle with an electric fence. Metaphor used not for ridicule but to most accurately describe what I think Netanyahu is thinking.
If I were him I would have withdrawn the IDF a month or so ago at least- they are now suffering from high casualty rates and risk the complete loss of the IDF myth on their neighbours in any few tangles
Following on from last night..,
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English Pubs, Conservative Style
With the NFL ruined by Taylor Swift, American beer too woke, and burgers rumored to contain plant-based products, these Republicans are sipping bitters, eating fish-and-chips, and watching Premier League soccer.
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The fact that Trump spent $50 million on lawyers in 2023 proves that he is creating jobs even when he’s out of office.