Miscellany: Essential Research on tax, Roy Morgan, by-election latest (new thread)

Half-cooked early indications on the tax cuts backflip produce mixed signals.

Projected ALP swing Projected TCP ALP win probability

The first two polls after the government’s tax cuts backflip are out, though neither was conducted entirely after the new policy was announced on Thursday. The Essential Research poll, which was conducted Wednesday to Monday with a sample of 1201, is as yet lacking voting intention numbers, which will hopefully be along later today. As reported in The Guardian, the poll presented respondents with a description of the stage three tax cuts as originally proposed and a choice of four responses, with only 22% favouring that the cuts proceed unchanged, up two from November. Of the remainder, 47% preferred they be “revised so they mostly benefit those on low and middle incomes”, in line with the government’s new policy, up six; 19% favoured an option of delaying cuts for those on more than $200,000 until “economic conditions improve”, down three; and 13% opposed the cuts altogether, down three.

UPDATE: Essential Research’s voting intention numbers are Labor 32% (up one from mid-December), Coalition 34% (steady), Greens 13% (steady) and One Nation 7% (steady) with 5% undecided. Its 2PP+ measure has Labor leading 48-46, in from 49-46.

The weekly voting intention poll from Roy Morgan had only half its field work after the announcement, being conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1688. The two-party headline of 50.5-49.5 in favour of Labor is in from 52.5-47.5 last week, though that result was something of an outlier: the previous four polls, conducted from late November to early January with a week’s break for Christmas, were all in the range from 51-49 to 49-51. On the primary vote, Labor is down one-and-a-half to 31% and the Coalition is up by the same amount to 37.5%, with both the Greens and One Nation up half a point to 13.5% and 5% respectively.

Essential Research also asked about respondents’ personal financial circumstances, which reportedly showed improvement “over summer”, though I can’t find the earlier poll being compared to. Eleven per cent rated their circumstances as comfortable, 38% as secure (up seven), 39% as struggling a bit (down four), and 12% as in serious difficulty (down two). Regarding the Israel-Palestine conflict, 67% felt Australia should stay out entirely, up six since November, with a five point drop in support for “active assistance to Palestine” to 16% and a one point drop for Israel to 17%. A presumably related question on the ABC found an even 39% for and against the proposition that it was independent and unbiased. Support for a republic was at 42% and opposition at 35%; on Australia Day, 40% supported the status quo, 18% a separate new date, and 31% a new date in addition to the existing one.

In other news, yet another by-election is on the horizon after Labor MP Jim Madden announced his resignation from the Queensland state seat of Ipswich West. Like the by-election for Annastacia Palaszczuk’s seat of Inala, this will be held simultaneously with the local government elections on March 16, at which Madden will run as a candidate for Ipswich City Council. Madden had previously announced he would retire at the next election after a series of unwelcome headlines last year, including claims of bullying and harassment of electorate office staff. Labor had already preselected Wendy Bourne, a Right-aligned former staffer to Annastacia Palaszczuk, who was unopposed after the withdrawal of Neisha Traill, an official with the Left faction Electrical Trades Union.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,239 comments on “Miscellany: Essential Research on tax, Roy Morgan, by-election latest (new thread)”

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  1. On Feb 8 the US Supreme Court is due to hear oral argument re Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. There are a number of amicus curiae briefs, one of which is co-authored by the most learned historian (James McPherson) of the Civil War, which was the basis for the 14th… If the three justices nominated by Trump (Gorsuch, Kavanaugh & Coney Barrett) are true originalists, as they maintained in their Senate hearings, the matter should be easily resolved against Trump’s presidential aspirations.

  2. Nor can I see a moderate having much of a chance at gaining the leadership in the present climate

    It will never happen. We’ve been talking about this since the Howard years, and still today’s Liberal party is firmly in the hands of the crazies, even more so than in the Howard era.

  3. Asha

    Taylor and Ley represent the worst of Morrison’s government.
    Hastie seems well regarded but before he is leadership material he would need to move out of the defence bubble.
    He’s a defence nerd and China hawk but what are his views on health, education, welfare taxation and jobs?
    The issues that really matter.
    And he’s from WA. Not going to get much support from Queensland and NSW MPs I’d venture.

  4. steve davis says:
    Friday, February 2, 2024 at 8:01 pm
    Wharfies get 25pc pay boost in DP World deal
    The crippling waterfront dispute between DP World and the MUA may be about to end after the two parties reached an ‘in principle agreement’ over pay and rostering.

    That is one union that doesn’t fuck about.

    ——————————————————————————

    The stronger the union, the better its members pay and conditions. I was a workplace rep in a union that didn’t ‘fuck about’ and we use to do pretty well in disputes. It’s no coincidence it’s the strong unions the Liberals and business hate.

    It was an absolute joke that DP World wanted a Labor government to help them after Howard, Patricks and dogs on the waterfront. There must have been a few government MPs laughing their guts out at that one. Labor never forgets.

  5. And scanning back

    LB – you are correct

    In Victoria is is crisis mode – and no solution apart from attracting a candidate with the name “Hamer”

    Replicating the reliance on “Downer” in SA and then in Victoria – both failures

    What I am also informed is that some 6 weeks ago Frydenberg paid for some comprehensive polling in the Seat he once represented – and committed to the Corporate World on the back of that polling (which is said to have particularly devastated his wife who sees herself as pm’s wife)

    Then you get to the comments on Wilson, the proverbial cry baby

    Then PooShooter!!!

    The summary is that there is no hope because there is no hope

    The question was asked of mine host at lunch today what increase in beer prices will be imposed

    “None. These price increases are a regular occurrence so instead of changing prices every time the excise is adjusted for inflation, these price movements are already factored in so we don’t change”

    And back to our quality red!!!

    And 25% over how many years?

    A 5 year agreement at 5% per annum?

    All in the way it is presented hey?

  6. Here we go again- yep and it’s hard to articulate to those unaware just how severe and active things are under the surface at LIb branches and execs nation wide.

    And the moderates have been working on coordinated plans to be ready to pounce

  7. Greensborough Growlersays:
    Friday, February 2, 2024 at 8:29 pm
    Leftie,

    Sounds like Twaddle to me.

    1. Miranda doesn’t get Baird in to Federal Parliament.
    2. Constance. Please run him again. Preferably in a marginal seat.
    3. Campbell Newman??? Incinerated a generation of LNP Government in one term.

    Whoever was in that link up wasn’t talking about political reality.
    ====================================================

    I agree with all your points here. I see LeftieBrawler has corrected Miranda to Cook. Though how good is inside NSW information if a Victorian can correct it?.
    Even if Cook, Baird was Premier who left early when the going got tough at the Greyhound races. Hardly even a first division issue. Go to be lots of speculation about his ticker if he is ever a future leader. Andrew Constance is a waste of space and a liability. While Campbell Newman is possibly the most hated politician in Queensland’s history. So LNP could even lose the majority of seats in Qld under him.

    Quote:
    “Wheel’s on fire
    Rolling down the road
    Best notify my next of kin
    This wheel shall explode”

  8. Socrates says:
    Friday, February 2, 2024 at 8:11 pm

    It is a relationship without much baggage..

    ———————————

    And they play cricket.

  9. Compared to today’s leadership Howard appears like a moderate One Nation Tory.

    The Liberal Party due to its composition will never have a moderate leader in our lifetimes. Even if it did, they would be a mere puppet to the Conservative Right. This is exactly what the mainstream media and the big donors want.

  10. The last 4 Liberal PMs came from NSW – and it is most likely the 5th will as well.

    The ‘outer suburbs and regional communities’ mantra of Scomo and Dutton has pissed off the NSW and Victorian traditional Libs so much, many voted Teal independent. And the business community, old money and many in the professions are even more pissed off with the dead hand of the QLD LNP running the show. Badly.

    Hence existential crisis. Hence looking for the saviour to lead back to the promised land.

    Mike Baird is the leading candidate to have a tilt at the 2028 election, with the Teal seats brought back into the fold.

  11. LB

    “ Here we go again- yep and it’s hard to articulate to those unaware just how severe and active things are under the surface at LIb branches and execs nation wide.”

    Thanks, that is a lovely thought. I think I will pour a nice brandy to wash down the schardenfreude and bid adieu for the evening.

    I just caught up with The Age story on Dutton’s train announcement. The State Lib MPs didn’t even turn up! Sure enough, another thought bubble with no preparation.

    The only sad thing is that 18 months ago that is how the same fools were actually running the country.

  12. shellbell says:
    Friday, February 2, 2024 at 8:31 pm
    Only decent thing done by Mel Gibson

    ———————————————-

    Mad Max – A total classic!

    ‘Filmed on a budget of A$400,000, it earned more than US$100 million worldwide in gross revenue and set a Guinness record for most profitable film. The success of Mad Max has been credited for further opening the global market to Australian New Wave films.’

    Source: wikipedia

  13. “Sprocket do you still think Biden is retiring? He’d have to drop out before Easter surely if he is retiring?”

    He retired a couple of years ago, he just forgot.

  14. Leftie, was hearing much the same last year – but it sounds like things have progressed.

    The Daily Telegraph and the AFR have run the Mike Baird flag up the pole in the last 24 hours, to see who will salute.

  15. sprocket_says:
    Friday, February 2, 2024 at 9:08 pm
    Leftie, was hearing much the same last year – but it sounds like things have progressed.

    The Daily Telegraph and the AFR have run the Mike Baird flag up the pole in the last 24 hours, to see who will salute.

    =====================================================

    A week ago Dutton believed he was on winner by castigating anyone that wasn’t flying an Australian flag. This week they are flying Mike Baird on the flag pole, to determine the reaction. A week is a long time in politics.

  16. The Liberals are not going to lurch to the left/moderate.

    If anything they will follow the path of the Republicans in becoming more anti-woman, more anti-democracy and more anti-inclusion in their quest to capture the bogan outer suburban working class vote from Labor.

  17. Here we go again says:
    Friday, February 2, 2024 at 8:48 pm

    Replicating the reliance on “Downer” in SA and then in Victoria – both failures

    ——————————————————

    The Downers were a political dynasty in SA, so it was worth a try.

    Alexander Downer’s father:

    ‘Sir Alexander Russell “Alick” Downer KBE (7 April 1910 – 30 March 1981) was an Australian politician and diplomat. He was a member of the House of Representatives between 1949 and 1963, representing the Liberal Party, and served as Minister for Immigration in the Menzies Government. He was later High Commissioner to the United Kingdom from 1963 to 1972.’

    Alexander Downer’s grandfather:

    ‘Sir John Downer, was a Premier of South Australia and a member of the Australian Senate.’

    Source: wikipedia

  18. sprocket at 6.05 pm

    “The Quinnipiac University Poll uses what has long been considered the gold standard methodology in polling: random digit dialing using live interviewers, calling both landlines and cell phones. This methodology has been the key to our accuracy over our many years of polling.”

    What does that claim imply about Australian polling, which mostly no longer uses phones, and has, like the much-lamented park in the Leunig cartoon, gone “online”?

    https://www.leunig.com.au/works/recent-cartoons/275-park

    “No major Australian regular voting intention pollster exclusively uses phone polling. For instance Newspoll and Essential are exclusively online and therefore do not call at all. Resolve is exclusively online except for an online/phone hybrid for final pre-election polls, and Morgan uses online/phone hybrid polling and SMS polls. Some less prominent polls still use phone polling – for instance uComms robopolls – but phone polling of random numbers is not very accurate anymore because younger voters are so hard to reach and those who are reached tend to be unrepresentative. Phone polling of targeted numbers has been trialled by Newspoll/YouGov as a seat polling method with some success.

    Even when young voters were first becoming hard to reach by phone methods, random phone polling remained a viable method until about 2016 because pollsters could simply adjust to that by upweighting the young voters who they did contact, or by setting quotas and calling til they got enough young voters. Poll deniers generally think that if a polling method has an age skew in respondents, then that must be reflected in the final outcome, but polls do not have to weight all respondents equally.”

    https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2023/09/australian-polling-denial-and.html (point A2)

  19. Whispers about others such as Campbell Newman but can’t confirm more atm.

    The LNP are glad Campbell Newman is gone. When he took a position in the LNP executive after the outgoing LNP old guard executive installed him. It was a controversial appointment, and none of the new guard LNP executive wanted him there Newman confirmed. It was just a reminder to voters about his slash and burn state government. Which Labor has frequently reminded voters at the following state elections.

    Since then Newman has quit the LNP and ran for then Liberal Democrats in federal senate. Then quit the Liberal Democrat party after his failed senate candidacy. There is a Queensland state election this year in October. And the LNP are favorites to win (although not certainties). I seriously doubt they would jeopardise those chances bringing Newman back into the fold. All it would be for them is an unwanted distraction.

  20. Sceptic:

    Friday, February 2, 2024 at 8:59 pm

    [‘A good summary of the brief.’]

    Agree & thanks. The full brief is some 40 pages. I’ll see if it’s available on the SCOTUS site. We’ll soon know if the three judges Trump nominated are true to their word or if they feel they still owe him for their job or are worried that he might spill the beans on them if they don’t back him. In any event, I think Trump’s cactus.

  21. Lars Von Trier says:
    Friday, February 2, 2024 at 8:30 pm
    Who would have thought that President Reagan watched Gallipoli in 1981?

    —————————————————-

    And he watched Breaker Morant. Interesting that they were both movies about Australian soldiers being screwed over by the British. Wonder what he thought.

  22. What ever the validness of my source one thing I know is certain-

    Don’t write off a comeback kid type of scenario by moderate factions country wide. It’s being led out of NSW by Ayres and Paine and Turnbull is providing advice.

    It’s a coordinated moderate hit job in the making- a sleep cell ready to pounce on branches country wide. A conga line of turfed mods from the blue ribbon seats are also involved.

    Things must be quite stunning when a sitting liberal Tasmanian premier has to be talked down by very senior national exec heavies of the dangers of deciding to formally breakaway from the party mid term etc etc.

    Storms are a brewing, folks

  23. Don’t write off a comeback kid type of scenario by moderate factions country wide.
    ___________
    It used to be said that there were hardly any Liberal moderates outside of Victoria and NSW. Now they are having nationwide conference calls!

  24. It’s a coordinated moderate hit job in the making- a sleep cell ready to pounce on branches country wide. A conga line of turfed mods from the blue ribbon seats are also involved.
    ______________
    Jason Bourne is involved in this I bet.

  25. Entropy says:
    Friday, February 2, 2024 at 5:11 pm

    “You are saying it is alright to destroy their heritage because you don’t believe their religion.”

    Bullshit. Where did I say it is alright to destroy their heritage?

    Laying pipelines on sea bed is not destroying their heritage.

  26. Imagine Campbell Newman re-appearing as a political contender at this time.

    Labor Qld would realise there is a God.

  27. Asha says:
    Friday, February 2, 2024 at 9:37 pm

    Campbell Newman… a moderate???
    __________
    He is for the purposes of this story Asha. Don’t ruin it.

    I just took an edible and this is very entertaining.

  28. I heard that the meeting began with all participants singing this:

    Who controls the British crown? Who keeps the metric system down? We do, we do!
    Who keeps Atlantis off the maps? Who keeps the Martians under wraps? We do, we do!
    Who holds back the electric car? Who makes Steve Guttenberg a star? We do, we do!
    Who robs cavefish of their sight? Who rigs every Oscar night? We do, we do!

  29. nathsays:
    Friday, February 2, 2024 at 9:34 pm
    Don’t write off a comeback kid type of scenario by moderate factions country wide.
    ___________
    It used to be said that there were hardly any Liberal moderates outside of Victoria and NSW. Now they are having nationwide conference calls!

    ====================================================

    Looks like they might be planning to clone Archbishop Mannix and John Wren to form a new Democratic Liberal Party (DLP). It looks like your plans for Collingwood could be on hold. Though they might not need to clone Mannix as Comensoli, like Pell before him, is already a Mannix clone.

    Note: The goodnews is that they want need “Jock” McHale. Who was really the only one worth cloning as far as a football perspective was concerned.

  30. Campbell Newman… a moderate???

    Have we travelled back in time to 2011?

    Campbell Newman socially is a moderate. He’s been a supporter of gay marriage and an outspoken supporter on euthanasia. Issues that have not been very popular in LNP Queensland state parliamentary ranks. But yeah his governing in law and order and his complaining on the lockdown laws do swing him to the Right. Interestingly, Newman has expressed regret over the VLAD laws recently.

  31. Federally, the Liberals have been a right-wing party for 30 years, since Downer’s brief time as leader followed by John Howard’s ascendency. It has had some moderates, but at Federal level they have very little influence. Even when a moderate was selected to lead the party in the wake of Abbott’s clown-show, he was just an electable front man. He was able to achieve very little.

    So if Dutton were to be replaced, it would most likely be with someone even more right wing.

  32. Don’t get me wrong, I can absolute believe that the shattered remnants of the Liberal moderates would think they are capable of taking back control of the party. They have a long tradition of deluding themselves on such matters. They may well be engaged in clandestine scheming to that effect right now.

    What I do not believe is that they have any chance of succeeding. Not without there being some enormous changes in the composition of both the Liberal parliamentary caucus and the rank-and-file membership.

    Who knows, Mike Baird could be preselected for Cook. It is far from an implausable scenario. But unless he does some sort of Turnbull-esque bargain with the right promising to be a moderate in-name-only, I think he would struggle in a future leadership ballot- and even if he did make such a bargain, would probably face heavy competition from colleagues with far more experience and seniority in the federal party.

    As for Andrew Constance… didn’t he try and fail to get preselected for Jim Molan’s senate seat just a little while back.

  33. Steve777says:
    Friday, February 2, 2024 at 9:52 pm
    Federally, the Liberals have been a right-wing party for 30 years, since Downer’s brief time as leader followed by John Howard’s ascendency. It has had some moderates, but at Federal level they have very little influence. Even when a moderate was selected to lead the party in the wake of Abbott’s clown-show, he was just an electable front man. He was able to achieve very little.

    So if Dutton were to be replaced, it would most likely be with someone even more right wing.
    ====================================================

    Trumps polling numbers are heading in the wrong direction. He will probably be available.

  34. Asha says:
    Friday, February 2, 2024 at 9:58 pm

    They may well be engaged in clandestine scheming to that effect right now
    ____________
    I’m unimpressed by just how clandestine this coup is shaping up.

  35. Thanks LB (and sprocket for additional). Mike Baird for Cook looks very possible. As to a moderate takeover of the Liberal party, I had thought they would have kept their tinder dry until after the next election. It was obvious the S3 changes wedged Dutton, but I didn’t think it terminal. The tracking polling must be horrible.

    In any case, the Queenslanders won’t go quietly 😉

  36. FUBARsays:
    Friday, February 2, 2024 at 9:38 pm
    Entropy says:
    Friday, February 2, 2024 at 5:11 pm

    “You are saying it is alright to destroy their heritage because you don’t believe their religion.”

    Bullshit. Where did I say it is alright to destroy their heritage?

    =====================================================

    We have moved on from your planned destruction of indigenous heritage.
    We are now discussing the imminent implosion of the Federal Liberal party. Try and keep up. As there is very little time left for them it seems. Soon we will be discussing the funeral rights and how Dutton probably will want a non-biodegradable coffin. As one last up yours to the planet.

    Quote: “From hell’s heart I stab at thee”

  37. leftiebrawler:

    Asha, they didn’t call him “magic mike” for nothing- a PR agent’s dream. Women loved him and men wanted to be him. He could supposedly do nothing wrong

    While that isn’t an entirely inaccurate summation of his reign, I am of the understanding that there is also a whole bunch of young people and bar owners from Sydney who still loathe the man on account of what the lock-up laws did to the city’s nightlife.

    Additionally, I’m afraid the Mike Baird rumoured to be running for Cook is not Mike Baird-circa-2015, but instead Mike Baird-circa-2024. The latter isn’t quite as dishy: https://images.app.goo.gl/79fge2r8x36fXN1B7

  38. ‘One-day world champions Australia earn a comfortable win in the first game of a three-match series against West Indies in Melbourne,

    Debutant Xavier Bartlett led the way with 4-17 as the home side dismissed West Indies for 231’

    Source: abc.net.au
    ——————————————————-

    Good to see there’s a future for Australian cricket when Dad’s Army finally shuffle off into the sunset and make room for the younger guys.

  39. 1. Miranda doesn’t get Baird in to Federal Parliament.

    Yeah I’ve re-read the post this doesn’t make sense to me. I would be surprised if Mike Baird would want to re-enter state politics after already being Premier. I just can’t see this.

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