Category: Federal Politics 2022-2025

Two new federal opinion poll results today:

• The long-awaited set of voting intention numbers from Resolve Strategic finds Labor down a point on last month to 39%, the Coalition down one to 30%, the Greens up three to 13% and One Nation steady on 5%. The Coalition gets a particularly bad set of numbers from Queensland, where they are down 11 points to 24% with Labor steady on 39%. No two-party preferred is provided, but I make it at close to 60-40 in favour of Labor. Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 55% and up one on disapproval to 31%, while Peter Dutton is up three to 32% and down one to 44%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is in from 55-23 to 51-22. The poll was conducted Sunday to Thursday from a sample of 1600.

• The fortnightly voting intention numbers from Essential Research, which include a 5% undecided component, have Labor up two to 34%, the Coalition down one to 31%, the Greens up two to 14% and One Nation down two to 5%. Labor’s lead on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure widens from 49-44 to 52-43, the balance being undecided. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1124.

As was the case with the Resolve Strategic poll with numbers published on Saturday, the Essential Research poll featured further results on AUKUS, finding 40% agreement with contention that the submarine agreement would “make Australia more secure” (down four from November) versus 21% for less secure (up five) and 40% saying it would have no impact (up one). Respondents were also less inclined to rate that China was a threat needing to be confronted than in November, down six to 20%, and correspondingly more favourable to the alternative view that it was a “complex relationship to be managed”, up six to 67%, with an unchanged 13% considering it “a positive opportunity to be realised”. Twenty-six per cent considered the purchase worth the expense, 27% felt the submarines were necessary but the expense too great, and 28% believed the submarines were unnecessary.

An occasional series of questions on leaders’ attributes, the first such since February last year, found Anthony Albanese’s biggest strength to be that he was in control of his team (59%), while 54% felt he changed his opinions too much and 49% rated him out of touch with ordinary people. Peter Dutton scored weak results across the board, his strongest being that 47% felt him in control of his team, and his weakest being 61% for out of touch and 34% or 35% for visionary, understanding of women’s issues and more honest than other politicians.

In other poll news, JWS Research finds 42% favouring a yes vote in an Indigenous voice referendum, down one since August, with 28% for no, down five; and the latest Roy Morgan voting intention results, conducted from March 6 to 12, have Labor leading 56.5-43.5 from primary votes of Labor 37%, Coalition 34% and Greens 12.5%.

The Age/Herald published a Resolve Strategic poll on Saturday concerning AUKUS and nuclear submarines, which I held back on doing a post on because I thought voting intention results might follow. That hasn’t happened yet, so here goes.

As is perhaps unavoidable with the matter at hand, respondents were given fairly lengthly explanations of the relevant issues before having their opinions gauged on them, such that the results need to be considered carefully alongside what was actually asked. The first outlined the proposed acquisition and pointed out both the expense and the expectation that it would create 20,000 jobs, and found 50% in favour and 17% opposed. Breakdowns by party support found near identical results for Labor and Coalition results, with weaker support among an “others” category inclusive of both the Greens and minor parties of the right.

The second question asked respondents how they felt specifically about Australian submarines being nuclear-powered, finding 25% actively supportive, 39% considering the notion “acceptable”, and 17% actively opposed. The third put it to respondents that the federal government has hitherto being committed to spending 2% of GDP on defence, and that Anthony Albanese says he would like to spend more: 39% concurred, 31% said it should remain as is, and 9% felt it should be reduced. Finally, 46% felt “large single-party states, like Russia and China” were a threat to Australia, but one that could be carefully managed; 36% felt they were a threat that “needed to be confronted soon”; and 8% felt they were no threat at all.

The sample was conducted last Sunday to Thursday from a sample of 1600.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll was published yesterday, showing the following:

• On voting intention, primary vote numbers inclusive of a 7% undecided component have Labor and the Coalition on 32% each, which is one down in Labor’s case and two up in the Coalition’s. The Greens are down two to 12% and One Nation are up one to 7%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor down two to 49% and the Coalition up two to 44%, with 7% undecided.

• Leader favourability ratings, in which respondents are asked to rate the leaders from zero to ten (distinct from a more conventional approval question that is asked of the Prime Minister once a month), offer the most distinctive evidence yet for a softening of Anthony Albanese’s position: 40% now give him a rating of seven to ten, down seven on last month, with 28% scoring him from zero to three, up six.

• For the first time since Labor came to power, a “national mood” question records a net negative result, with 42% rating that the country is on the wrong track, up five on a month ago, compared with 38% for the right track, down five.

• A series of three questions on tax policy includes one on “reducing tax concessions for people with superannuation balances over $3 million”, which found 50% supportive and 19% opposed. Forty-seven per cent rate themselves unlikely to have $3 million in super when they are old enough to access it along with 23% for not that likely, while 8% think it very likely and 15% fairly likely. “Tightening up the rules around family trusts to make it more difficult for wealthy families to split their incomes and reduce their tax” was supported by 55% and opposed by 15%, and cancelling stage three tax cuts has 42% support with 22% opposed.

The poll was covered Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1141. Other poll findings around the place:

• An additional result from this week’s Newspoll has support for an Indigenous voice at 53%, down three on a month ago, with opposition up one to 38%. Last week’s Resolve Strategic poll also had a supplementary question on the voice, which had support at 58%, down two from December and January, and opposition up two to 42%.

• The quarterly True Issues survey of issue salience by JWS Research finds concern over the cost of living continuing to raise, now rated as one of the three main issues by 47%, up from 44% in October and just 16% a year ago. Housing and interest rates is up seven since October to 26%; health has steadied after a long decline as the pandemic faded from the limelight, now up two to 31%; and environment and climate change is down three to 23%. The survey was conducted February 24 to 27 from a sample of 1000.

• The latest weekly Roy Morgan federal voting intentions have Labor on 38%, the Coalition on 33.5% and the Greens on 11.5%, with Labor’s two-party lead narrowing from 56.6-43.5 to 54.5-45.5. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday; as usual, the sample is not specified.

The Australian reports the first Newspoll in four weeks has Labor leading 54-46, in from 55-45 last time. The primary votes are Labor 37% (down one), Coalition 35% (up one), Greens 10% (down one) and One Nation 7% (up one). Anthony Albanese’s approval rating is down two to 55% and his disapproval is up five to 38%, and his lead on preferred prime minister is in from 56-26 to 54-28. We are told that Peter Dutton’s net rating is at minus 11 – he was at 36% approval and 46% disapproval last time (UPDATE: Now 37% approval and 48% disapproval).

The poll also finds very strong support for the proposed changes to taxation of superannuation, which the question goes to some lengths to explain. Sixty-four per cent registered support for the idea, with only 29% opposed, with breakdowns viewable here finding the proposal seemingly scoring well with every constituency other than journalists.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1530.

If there’s been any polling relevant to the federal tier over the past week or so it’s escaped my attention, other than the weekly Roy Morgan numbers, with have Labor’s two-party lead in from 58.5-41.5 to 56.5-43.5, from primary votes of Labor 37%, Coalition 34.5% and Greens 13.5%. This was conducted last Monday through to Sunday, with no detail provided on sample size or survey method. The tracking polling of international leaders’ approval conducted by US pollster Morning Consult has recorded a slight weakening in Anthony Albanese’s standing over the past few weeks, with a current result of 57% approval and 31% disapproval, respectively down three and up four from the start of the year. The BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which makes use of results from Newspoll, Resolve Strategic, Essential Research and Freshwater Strategy, likewise records a declining trend in Albanese’s net approval over the past two months.

The Age/Herald brings the monthly Resolve Strategic poll of federal voting intention, which has Labor down two on the primary vote to 40%, the Coalition up two to 31%, the Greens down one to 10% and One Nation down one to 5%. No two-party preferred is reported, but this would pan out to around 58-42 based on preference flows from last year, in from around 60-40 last time. Anthony Albanese’s approval rating (very good plus good) is down four on last month to 56%, with disapproval (very poor plus poor) up five to 30%; Peter Dutton is up one to 29% and down one to 45%; and Anthony Albanese’s lead over Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister is 55-23, in from 55-20. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1604. Further results published today including a finding that 50% expect economic conditions to worsen over the coming year, compared with 18% for improvement and 24% for staying the same.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll, which does not exclude undecided from its voting intention numbers, has Labor at 33% and the Coalition at 30% on the primary vote, both unchanged on a fortnight ago. The Greens are down three from an anomalous peak last time to 14% and One Nation are steady on 6%, with undecided at 8%. The 2PP+ measure had Labor down four to 51%, the Coalition up two to 42% and undecided up three to 8%. As noted in the previous post, Anthony Albanese’s approval is down two on a month ago to 53%, and his disapproval is up three to 34%. The full report, featuring questions on economic issues and interest rate rises, is here.

The Victorian Liberal Party’s administrative committee has as expected endorsed barrister Roshena Campbell as its candidate for the April 1 Aston by-election. Paul Sakkal of The Age reports Campbell received 13 votes, with former state upper house MP Cathrine Burnett-Wake and oncologist Ranjana Srivastava on three each.