Category: Federal Politics 2022-2025

Federal polling continues to come thick and fast, with a general pattern of improving results for Labor and Anthony Albanese:

• The Guardian reports the fortnightly Essential Research poll has the major parties unchanged on the primary vote, with Labor on 29% and the Coalition on 35%, and the Greens down one to 12%, with the remainder including an undecided component of 6%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has a 47-47 tie (the balance being undecided), after the Coalition led 48-47 last time. The stability on voting intention is in contrast to much improved personal ratings for Anthony Albanese, who records his first net positive result in this series since October 2023, the month of the Indigenous Voice referendum. Albanese is up five on approval to 46% (The Guardian report says up four, but the previous published result was 41%) and down four on disapproval to 45%. Peter Dutton is steady on 41% approval and up two on disapproval to 46%. The poll also finds 31% supporting and 39% opposing Peter Dutton’s proposal to reduce work-from-home arrangements for public servants (with women particularly opposed), which he has since dialled back. Albanese’s suggestion that Australia might send peacekeeping troops to Ukraine was supported by 33% and opposed by 40%. The poll had a sample of 2256 – double the usual size – and was conducted from Wednesday to Sunday. The full report is available here.

• Roy Morgan, which is notably more volatile than other Australian pollsters, has turned up an eyebrow-raiser with its regular weekly federal voting intention result, putting Labor 54.5-45.5 ahead on respondent-allocated preferences, out from 51.5-48.5 last week. Labor is up two-and-a-half on the primary vote to 32.5%, the Coalition is down three to 34%, and the Greens and One Nation are steady on 13.% and 5%. The result is also 54.5-45.5 on previous election preference flows, which usually favours Labor more than the other method, out from 52-48 last time. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a larger than usual sample of 2097.

• The ABC has polling from Talbot Mills on attitudes to Donald Trump, finding approval down from 41% since February (well on the high side of such polling in Australia) to 37% and disapproval up from 49% to 51%, including a six-point increase for “strongly disapprove”. Twenty-two per cent of Australians somehow approve of steel and aluminium tariffs on Australian exports, with 65% disapproving. The survey was conducted between March 6 and 12, so before the tariffs were actually confirmed, from a sample of 1051.

Yesterday’s News Corp papers reported on polling of six seats of interest to the Greens, conducted for right-wing activist group Advance by Insightfully, whose principal is Leanne White, formerly of Crosby Textor. Reported under headlines promising a “federal election wipeout” for the party, it in fact suggests the party will gain a second seat in Victoria and retain one or two of their three seats in Brisbane. To deal first with the latter, for which the greater detail is provided:

• In Griffith, the poll has the LNP on 38.6% (30.7% at the 2022 election), the Greens on 31.3% (34.6%), Labor on 22.6% (28.9%), independents on 1.5% and others on 5.9%. No two-candidate preferred is provided, but a conservative estimate based on 2022 election flows would give the Greens a winning margin of between 2% and 3%, compared with 10.5% at the 2022 election.

• In Ryan, the primary votes are LNP 39.6% (38.5% in 2022), Greens 27.4% (30.2%), Labor 21.9% (22.3%), independent 7.1% and others 3.9%. A two-candidate result of 51.6-48.3 in favour of the LNP is presumably based on respondent-allocated preferences, with flows from the 2022 election suggesting a lineball result. The Greens’ winning margin over the LNP in 2022 was 2.6%.

• The results suggests Labor would gain Brisbane with 29.5% of the primary vote (27.3% in 2022) to the LNP’s 36.4% (37.3%), since they would receive most of the third-placed Greens’ 18.1% (27.2%) as preferences, with independents on 9.7% and others on 6.3%. A two-party result of 53-47 result in favour of the LNP (the basis of the “Brisbane to turn blue” table headline) appears to presume the Greens would come second, when the primary votes clearly suggest otherwise, and seems excessive in its LNP preference flow besides. The Greens won by 3.7% over the LNP in 2022, and Labor won the two-party preferred count over the LNP by 4.4%.

Sketchier detail is provided for the three Victorian seats canvassed:

• In Melbourne, Adam Bandt is on 50.1% (49.6% at the 2022 election, which reduces to 44.9% on my own determination of the redistribution), Labor is on 19.2% (25.0% and 25.6%) and the Liberals are on (I think) 21.6% (15.2% and 19.4%).

• In Wills, the only detail provided for the primary vote is that the Greens are up 4.8% on what seems to be the 2022 result without adjustment for the redistribution, suggesting 33.1%. Labor is said to have a 53.7-46.3 lead after preferences (54.2-45.8 based on my own post-redistribution determination), which is hard to assess in the absence of the other primary votes.

• In Macnamara, the Liberal are on 37.6% (29.0% on the 2022 election result, which will do because of the modest impact of the redistribution on this seat), the Greens are on 27.9% (29.6%) and Labor is on 25.9% (31.8%). No two-candidate preferred result is provided, but the Greens would certainly close that gap on any normal accounting of Labor preferences, which may hold true even if Labor put the Liberals ahead of them on their how-to-vote cards, as counselled by News Corp’s James Campbell.

The polls targeted “about 600 voters” in each seat, suggesting a margin of error of around 4% (effectively higher if the results were heavily weighted, as was presumably the case), with field work dates not disclosed.

The Financial Review reports the latest Freshwater Strategy poll has the Coalition’s lead in from 52-48 to 51-49. Labor’s primary vote is unchanged at 31%, but the Coalition is down two to 39% and the Greens are up one to 14%. The exact figures are not yet provided, but we are told that Anthony Albanese’s net approval rating is up one to minus 10% while Dutton’s is down four to minus 12%. (UPDATE: Albanese is up two on approval to 37% and up one on disapproval to 47%; Dutton is down one to 35% and up two to 46%.) Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 45-43 to 46-42.

Forty-two per cent now expect Labor to win the next election, up five (though only 7% expect a majority Labor government), with the Coalition down five to 45% (18% for a majority). Field work dates and sample size don’t appear to be featured in the online reports (UPDATE: 1051 and Thursday to Saturday, apparently), but the gaps will presumably be filled when the print edition is available. Polls in this series have typically been spaced four weeks apart, but this time it’s only been three.

It seems YouGov federal polls will be a weekly Friday event from now until the big day. The latest result replicates last week’s above-par showing for Labor, who maintain their 51-49 two-party lead off primary votes that might have been entirely unchanged if not for YouGov’s apparent new practice of rounding to the nearest half percentage point: Labor 31% (steady), Coalition 36% (steady), Greens 13.5% (up half), One Nation 7.5% (up half) and Trumpet of Patriots 1% (steady).

Anthony Albanese is on 43% approval (up one on last week and three on the week before) and 49% disapproval (down two and three respectively), while Peter Dutton is on 42% approval (down one and two respectively) and 48% disapproval (up one and two). Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 45-39. A question on whether Australia should “stand with” Volodymr Zelenskyy or Donald Trump produced a split of 69-31 in the former’s favour. The poll was conducted last Friday to Thursday from a sample of 1526.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll is the second strong result for Labor out of the last three, crediting them with a 51.5-48.5 lead after a 50.5-49.5 result in favour of the Coalition last time. Labor was up one-and-a-half on the primary vote to 30%, with the Coalition down three to 37%, the Greens steady on 13.5% and One Nation up one to 5%. The two-party measure that goes off 2022 preference flows rather than respondent allocation has Labor leading 52-48, after a 50-50 result last time. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1719.

A Freshwater Strategy poll conducted for the News Corp papers points to a combined 5% swing against the teal independent members in Wentworth, Warringah, Mackellar, Goldstein, Kooyong and Curtin, which if uniform would return all but Warringah and Wentworth to the Liberal Party. No further detail on voting intention was provided beyond the fact that the incumbents’ primary votes had “largely held up”, but the Liberals had gained potentially decisive support at the expense of Labor and the Greens. Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton were tied 39-all on preferred prime minister, and 42% said they would support their MP backing a Labor minority government against 47% who said they wouldn’t. The poll was conducted last Wednesday to Friday from a sample of 830.

The Australian reports Newspoll has the Coalition with an unchanged two-party lead of 51-49, from primary votes of Labor 32% (up one), Coalition 39% (up one), Greens 12% (steady) and One Nation 7% (steady). Despite the stable voting intention results, Anthony Albanese records much improved personal ratings, up four on approval to 41% and down five on disapproval to 53%, and increases his lead as preferred prime minister from 45-40 to 47-38. Peter Dutton is down two on approval to 39% and up two on approval to 53%. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1255.

As Anthony Albanese rules out the April 12 election he had been widely expected to call this weekend before Cyclone Alfred came into view, YouGov presents his government with its most encouraging poll result in some time. The poll credits Labor with a two-party lead of 51-49, reversing the result of the last such poll a week ago (YouGov had hitherto reported around once every three weeks – presumably this portends a quicker pace ahead of the election). The two-party headline is the product of a recently adopted preference formula which, not unreasonably, assumes weaker flows from minor parties to Labor than in 2022. A strict application of flows from the last election would likely have produced a result of 52-48.

On the primary vote, Labor is up three points to 31%, the Coalition is down one to 36%, the Greens are down one to 13%, One Nation is down one to 7%, and Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of the Patriots remains on 1%. Anthony Albanese is up two points on approval to 42% and down one on disapproval to 51%, while Peter Dutton is down one to 43% and up one to 47%. Albanese holds a 45-39 lead as preferred prime minister, out from 42-40. The poll was conducted Friday to Thursday from a sample of 1504.

A report in Nine Newspapers yesterday quoted “a pair of ministers” expressing the view that Cyclone Alfred may, depending on its severity, deter the Prime Minister from calling an April 12 election on Sunday. Simon Benson of The Australian notes the optics of an election announcement would be particularly troublesome if, as appears likely, the most heavily affected areas encompass Peter Dutton’s own seat of Dickson. That would lock the government into a March 25 budget and an election in May – unless, as Benson notes, it pursued the no less optically troublesome path of extending the campaign to six weeks and holding the election on May 3.

On the poll front, the fortnightly Essential Research records little change on voting intention, with an increased Coalition result among women cancelling out a drop among men. Labor is down a point to 29% with the Coalition steady on 35%, the Greens up one to 13% and One Nation down one to 8%. The Coalition nudges ahead on the 2PP+ measure, now leading 48-47 after a 48-48 result last time. Leadership ratings that normally come monthly are included for the second fortnight in a row, with Anthony Albanese down two on approval to 41% and up one on disapproval to 49%, while Peter Dutton is steady on 41% and down one to 44%.

A question on firmness of voting intention reflects other polling in finding Coalition voters more likely to profess certainty in their intention (65% compared with 31% for “might change my mind” and 4% for “not yet decided”) than Labor voters (52%, 39% and 9%). Respondents were divided on the likely outcome, 29% apiece expecting Labor the Coalition to win a majority, with 22% for a Labor minority and 21% for a Coalition minority. A regular pre-election question on voting method finds more than ever planning to vote early (31%, up from 24% in the May 2022 survey), with election day down three points to 35% and postal down five to 19%. A monthly national mood indicator is slightly improved on a weak result last time, 34% holding that the country is heading in the right direction (up three) compared with 49% for the wrong track (down two).

DemosAU now has federal results for the South Australian poll for which state results were published earlier in the week. The poll shows Labor with a two-party lead in the state of 53-47, a swing to the Coalition of 1% compared with 2022. The primary votes are Labor 34% (34.5% at the election), Coalition 35% (35.7%), Greens 11% (12.8%) and One Nation 6% (4.8%). Anthony Albanese leads Peter Dutton 39-33 on preferred prime minister; 39% agree and 46% disagree that Australia is headed in the right direction. As with the state poll, it was conducted February 18 to 23 from a sample of 1004, but evidently required substantial weighting, as the methodology statement reports an effective sample of 440 and a margin of error of 4.8%.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll did not replicate the surge to Labor it recorded last week, with the Coalition recording a 50.5-49.5 two-party lead on respondent-allocated preferences, compared with a 51-49 Labor lead last time. The primary vote were Labor 28.5% (down three), Coalition 40% (up three-and-a-half), Greens 13.5% (steady) and One Nation 4% (down one). The result on previous election preference flows was 50-50, after Labor led 53-47 last week. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1673.

The second instalment of RedBridge Group’s marginal seats tracking poll is better for Labor than the first, finding them up a point on a fortnight ago to 34%, with the Coalition down two to 41% and the Greens steady on 12%. The share of Coalition backers saying they are certain to vote that way is down from 69% to 61%, while the certainty rate for Labor backers is up from 45% to 47%. Labor also records striking improvements on its handling of health (with a net rating up from minus 33% to minus 11%) and housing (from minus 60% to minus 36%).

Thirty per cent of respondents professed a very or mostly favourable view of Anthony Albanese, up one, compared with 43% for very or mostly unfavourable, down two, with a steady 23% neutral. Peter Dutton is down two on favourable to 39%, steady on 21% for neutral, and up one to 43% for unfavourable. Peter Dutton is rated better to handle the relationship with Donald Trump by 31% compared with 22% for Anthony Albanese, with 21% for both the same and 15% for neither. Thirty want “a closer relationship with the United States and President Donald Trump” compared with 29% for less close and 35% for no change, but only 23% regard Trump favourably compared with 59% for unfavourably.

The tracking poll series is targeting 20 electorates for the News Corp papers on a fortnightly basis until the election is called, at which point it will move to weekly. The latest wave was conducted last Thursday to Tuesday – the reports do not disclose a sample size, but last time it was 1002.