Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor (open thread)

Newspoll finds the Coalition down three points on the primary vote and Peter Dutton up five on disapproval, although the two-party result remains tight.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll finds Labor recovering a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred, after the last result three weeks ago recorded a draw. However, both sides are down on the primary vote, Labor by a point to 32% and the Coalition by three to 36%, with the Greens up two to 13%, One Nation steady on 7% and others up two to 12%. Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 42% and up three on disapproval to 53%, while Peter Dutton is down one to 38% and up five to 54%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is 46-38, unchanged from last time. The poll also finds 42% support for Peter Dutton’s proposal of building nuclear power plants in seven locations announced last week, with 45% opposed. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1260.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,196 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. Nadia,
    Very much appreciate your analysis above.

    I am still trying to get my head around a changed Australian federal political landscape – the election of the Teal candidates (welcome to me) was a big surprise at eh 2022 Federal election.

  4. Socrates @ #1145 Tuesday, July 2nd, 2024 – 10:26 pm

    Cat

    I just caught up with your good news on the house hunt saga. Congratulations!
    May it be a happy home for you both.

    Thanks, Soc. 🙂

    We’re going to try our best to make it that way. I persevered, against the odds and time running out, in only going for places that wouldn’t depress us to live in-open, light, airy, nice garden, and we succeeded eventually against stacks of other people vying for the same places. Phew!

    Now for the happy problem of the move.

  5. For a specific candidate to get up he/she will probably need to meet fairly stringent criteria and be endorsed by a local Imam. Generally religious leaders try to keep out of politics.

    An Imam was interviewed on ABC Sydney radio today and he was non-committal when asked if he would endorse the Muslim Party candidates.

    Apparently they’re courting Fatima Payman, but I guess that’s a no brainer under the circumstances.

  8. Has anyone considered whether The Muslim Party would put up Sunni or Shia candidates, or both, and how that may affect the number of votes they get?

  9. Lars Von Trier says Tuesday, July 2, 2024 at 9:16 pm

    Ask and ye shall receive:

    Nuclear is the Rolls-Royce of power generation,” Mr Smith told The Australian. “It’s the best baseload power you could ever get. To think you could ever run a modern, industrial country – which Australia is – on wind and solar is delusional. It’s simply not possible.

    “What you would have to do if you wanted to try and use wind and solar, you’d need the most incredible expenditure in batteries. But if you have a wind drought or unusual cloud cover, the batteries go flat. You have no power.”

    Rosie Barnes debunked this on the latest Uptime Wind Energy Podcast.

    Oh, and renewables and baseload aren’t a great mix. Both need to be supported by firming, whether that’s gas peaking (in the short term) or storage in the form of batteries or hydro.

  10. C@tmommasays:
    Tuesday, July 2, 2024 at 10:50 pm
    Has anyone considered whether The Muslim Party would put up Sunni or Shia candidates, or both, and how that may affect the number of votes they get?
    =====================================================

    I can’t see it working to well. Same as Christians there are to many difference groupings that want agree as a block. Take Payman, i gather she is from Afghanistan but is she Pashtun, Tajik, Hazara or Uzbeck? While all these groupings are Muslim they don’t particularly like each other.

  11. Badthinker says Tuesday, July 2, 2024 at 9:16 pm

    To all those whining that Dutts was a cop:
    Starmer was a Prosecutor, the bloke’s a 1st Class Arse.

    He was also a human rights lawyer.

    The most likely victims of crime are people with lower incomes (who’s more likely to be robbed, someone living in Cottesloe or a homeless person). I would think it an important principal that the vulnerable are protected from those who seek to prey upon them. That requires strong and equitable institutions of government, law enforcement and the judiciary.

  13. goll says Tuesday, July 2, 2024 at 10:00 pm

    Nuclear Energy is old technology.

    So is hydro and wind. We don’t need nuclear in Australia, but some countries will.

  14. Lars Von Trier says Tuesday, July 2, 2024 at 9:16 pm

    Nuclear is the Rolls-Royce of power generation,” Mr Smith told The Australian.

    And returning for a second go, nuclear is the Rolls-Royce of power generation because it’s too expensive for the vast majority of Australians. They take too long to order, cost too much to buy, running costs are too high (including insurance) and they’re ruinously expensive if something goes wrong. They’re about making a statement, not about the most cost effective tool for the job.

  15. When I was around 10 years old, I accompanied my father to a concert given by the students of St Marys High School, where he taught English and History.

    In this case St Marys was a suburb of Sydney, and he worked at the eponymous state high school. The suburb, and high school were regarded as “poor” and “immigrant” areas.

    Anyway, I sat with my father through the concert, and at one stage “Song of Joy” was sung. The choir sounded angelic.

    I excitedly asked my father the we were going home what it was that they had sung. He told me it was an ancient hymn “Song of Joy”. He also mentioned that it had figured in Beethoven’s 9th symphony.

    I still remember how entranced I was hearing Song of Joy, all those years ago.

    And how much I loved the message of the song.

    And, I was so delighted to discover that it was the European Union Anthem.

    Sp please excuse me while I link to a flash mob:

    This one is from Moldova:

    Flashmob “Ode to Joy”
    08.05.2024
    200 years ago today Beethoven’s Symphony No. 9 premiered in Vienna. “Ode to Joy” set music to the poem by Friedrich Schiller on unity & solidarity among peoples. The piece later became the European anthem, because this is what Europe is all about: unity and solidarity #EuropeDay.

    “Ode to Joy” takes the streets of Chișinău in a flashmob organised by @EUinMoldova
    https://www.eeas.europa.eu/delegations/moldova/flashmob-ode-joy_en?s=223

  17. Douglas and Milko says Tuesday, July 2, 2024 at 11:14 pm

    Anyway, I sat with my father through the concert, and at one stage “Song of Joy” was sung. The choir sounded angelic.

    I excitedly asked my father the we were going home what it was that they had sung. He told me it was an ancient hymn “Song of Joy”. He also mentioned that it had figured in Beethoven’s 9th symphony.

    Here’s an older one that I love:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kbJcQYVtZMo

    And a bit of Hallelujah Chorus
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXh7JR9oKVE

  18. I am in total agreement with AE on Dick Smith.

    Why the news media falls over themselves to get the opinion of a man whose one notable achievement was, as far as I can gather, selling his company for a sizeable sum over forty years ago. That’s certainly not an unimpressive achievement – I’m sure he was a very skilled businessman back in the day and deserves the fortune he has now – but I’m not sure why anyone would consider him an expert on, well, anything beyond how to make to make money selling electronics in the 1970s.

    Seriously, watch any interview with the guy, and you will see a person with a hugely inflated opinion of his own intelligence, a massive chip on his shoulder about people not recognising said intelligence, and only the most surface understanding of the stuff that he’s talking about.

  19. And one more for the road:

    2024 is the two hundredth anniversary of the writing of Beethoven’s Ode to Joy. To celebrate that and Leeds for Europe’s visit to Dortmund over the weekend here is the original Ode to Joy flashmob, the Philharmonic Orchestra of Nuremberg and the Hans-Sachs-Choir in front of the St. Lorenz Church in Nuremberg, Germany.
    https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=2174955719539110

  20. While I have a quite a bit of sympathy for the Palestinian cause, I can’t say I’m remotely comfortable with the idea of any political party as overly religious as this Muslim one that Druery is apparently helping set up sounds like it will be*, and particularly not one where it’s candidates will apparently have to be approved by priests. Keep that stuff out of politics, please.

    * Also, why, why, why can’t we be free of that parasite Glenn Druery.

  21. Tricot says:
    Tuesday, July 2, 2024 at 2:45 pm
    Sceptic…..
    Your photo is probably a fake and put out by the Kremlin….
    Though, with the red, white and blue could be in France, the US or in pre-1939 Germany…
    Are you sure that is not actually a transposed photo of an England football player or something? Oh well, all in the eye and mind of the beholder I guess.

    Only if The Guardian generates deep fakes…
    What PR idiot would dress Keith in all black.. I still say executive government is intrinsically undemocratic because it is predicate on cult status full of we know best backroom apparatchiks & fuck parliament where open discussion on policy generates ideas that bring the community with them.

    They don’t know best.. especially when they are full of hubris

  23. Seriously, watch any interview with the guy, and you will see a person with a hugely inflated opinion of his own intelligence, a massive chip on his shoulder about people not recognising said intelligence, and only a surface understanding of the stuff that he’s talking about.

    Asha!!

    Summed him right up!

    That’s brilliant!

  24. Sceptic:

    What PR idiot would dress Keith in all black..

    Since when is a politician wearing an outfit that is primarily black remotely out of the ordinary?

    (And he’s not dressed in all black, a quick look back a few pages to this photo that’s got you all hot and bothered shows that his shirt is clearly blue.)

  25. Asha says Tuesday, July 2, 2024 at 11:44 pm

    I am in total agreement with AE on Dick Smith.

    Why the news media falls over themselves to get the opinion of a man whose one notable achievement was, as far as I can gather, selling his company for a sizeable sum over forty years ago. That’s certainly not an unimpressive achievement – I’m sure he was a very skilled businessman back in the day and deserves the fortune he has now – but I’m not sure why anyone would consider him an expert on, well, anything beyond how to make to make money selling electronics in the 1970s.

    Seriously, watch any interview with the guy, and you will see a person with a hugely inflated opinion of his own intelligence, a massive chip on his shoulder about people not recognising said intelligence, and only the most surface understanding of the stuff that he’s talking about.

    Don’t forget that he once flew a helicopter around the world. It did take a while though.

    I would suggest that Dick Smith is not as informed on the topic of electrical grids as he could be.

    Actually I still have a Dick Smith branded multimetre I bought during uni back in the early eighties. As it happens, I was looking at possible replacements just the other night.

  27. Mavis, hope all is well.

    I am missing your wonderful operatic links tonight.

    I will have to provide some myself .

    It has been a difficult day, and I will only go to sleep late tonight.

    And you should all scroll through my next few posts, unless you also cannot sleep.

  30. Lars at 7.49 pm and Douglas and Milko at 7.27, 10.43 and 11.14 pm

    Lars – when did you see the light (shining from the East) about MMP?

    Carmen Lawrence once told me there was a brief but serious consideration of it by Federal Labor after the NZ electorate voted for it in 1993.

    No doubt Richo, the progenitor of OPV in NSW who was credited with helping Labor get home in 1990 by pretending to be green, was opposed to considering MMP, seeing it as a change that would involve sharing power.

    MMP would require a spirit of compromise, more akin to the Senate than to the Reps. Are the major parties (or any Australian parties, including the Greens) skilled at compromise? Hardly.

    D & M – you are well ahead of the Lib luminaries in realising the historical significance of the Teal wins in hitherto strong Lib heartland seats in 2022. The redistributions haven’t reduced that significance at all, with Bradfield another seat at risk.

    On a deeper level, did you like the music that Kieslowski used in his film Three Colours Blue?

  31. Asha

    While we’re sharing music, this track by the Pretty Reckless is my latest obsession:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dzuSVxuGW64

    Wow!! Great music, and the video track is amazing. I am old enough to have seen many of the background scenes on the 6 o’clock news (see e.g Skyhooks).

    But it is really impressive, and important , that these images are being communicated to a new generation.

  34. Asha at 11.52 pm

    Druery never helped anybody get within a bull’s roar of winning a lower house seat, as distinct from gaming a dubious upper house system open to abuse. If the disgruntled are paying Druery they are fools.

  35. Dr D

    On a deeper level, did you like the music that Kieslowski used in his film Three Colours Blue?

    A trite answer, but yes, I love it. Now that you have reminded me, I am listening to it while type.

    Edit: It is pretty amazing! It may hinder my search for the perfect opera piece, sung by the perfect voice, that Mavis normally regales us with.

  37. While recharging my EV at Goulburn , I met the wonderful Saul Griffiths , founder of “Rewiring Australia” who was on his way to Canberra to meet Albo .
    I have two of his books so recognised him from his photo.
    Was struck by his modesty.

  38. BSA Bob,
    I’m sick of these fuckwits who reckon the best way to get Labor to do something is to reduce its power to do anything.

    Yep!
    And talking about Federal Labor, who when they are in government can actually do things, like introducing Medicare, and later, implementing actual action on climate change, – like subsidising renewables, while also restoring the single parent payment to women, so that they can at least rent something and also feed their children.

    According to the fuckwits, who you reference above, this is not enough.

  39. Nadia: “19 years old for a pusscat Meher – long long life, so obviously very well loved and cared for.
    Big part of the family, and just doing the maths your cat has now lived under 7 PM’s.”
    —————————————————————————–
    Yep, he’s an adorable fellow with a very strong personality. I’m against cats in general because of what they do to wildlife, but this one came into my life when I met my partner almost 11 years ago and it was love at first sight. He’s sleeping on the couch next to me as I type: struggling a bit with the intense cold we are currently experiencing in Tassie, but otherwise doing brilliantly for his age.

  41. c@t: “Again though, I make the observation that, what is it with Australians that we mistake someone who has been successful in business with possessing wisdom and erudition?”

    True that. Particularly in relation to Dick Smith. If he’s the best proponent that Dutton can come up with, I might have to shift my views on the nuclear option closer to the prevailing one on this forum.

  43. Dick Smith gets wheeled out because he is one of the top four ‘most trusted’ Australians according to polling.

    Smith’s opinion carries weight apparently.

  44. https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/06/30/newspoll-51-49-to-labor-open-thread-2/comment-page-12/#comment-4314844

    Surely pollyTICs should be about progressing/ advancing Australia, fair, even in Ausminister/ Washminster centered on Versailles on Lake Bloody Griffin, the FIFO that is Canberra ACT.

    All that deny, delay, disparage noise flooding the zone from shit lite centrist (as in JobGiver overseas, not clawing back JobKeeper, whilst keeping JobSeeker) or full of shit right of centre HQs doesn’t disguise that 30% [and trending down] in the latest Essential have the country heading in the right direction.

    About a third of the electorate now seems to prefer minor parties/ independents, such as ‘progressive Greens’ or ‘conservative Teals’, be it Newspoll or others.
    Either major party duopolist can hardly claim any form of mandate, majority, double majority.

    Bring on the 2025 Federal Election, I am looking forward to an alliance/ Noalition with a major party duopolist in minority Aus fed gov.

    In the words of one former PM, have you got the numbers to enact legislation for initiatives?


  45. Dee says:
    Wednesday, July 3, 2024 at 8:06 am

    Dick Smith gets wheeled out because he is one of the top four ‘most trusted’ Australians according to polling.

    Smith’s opinion carries weight apparently.

    The way to fix that is express opinions on stuff you know little about.

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