Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor (open thread)

Newspoll finds the Coalition down three points on the primary vote and Peter Dutton up five on disapproval, although the two-party result remains tight.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll finds Labor recovering a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred, after the last result three weeks ago recorded a draw. However, both sides are down on the primary vote, Labor by a point to 32% and the Coalition by three to 36%, with the Greens up two to 13%, One Nation steady on 7% and others up two to 12%. Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 42% and up three on disapproval to 53%, while Peter Dutton is down one to 38% and up five to 54%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is 46-38, unchanged from last time. The poll also finds 42% support for Peter Dutton’s proposal of building nuclear power plants in seven locations announced last week, with 45% opposed. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1260.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,196 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. The Supreme Court decision is exactly as I expected. On the surface it’s reasonable: officials should be immune from prosecution for taking decisions in good faith using the lawful powers they are given by the constitution or specific legislation. That’s pretty much how things work here and why, for instance, I’d be astonished if anyone is ever prosecuted for Robodebt.

    This definitely shouldn’t apply to things like taking ordering Navy SEALS to assassinate political rivals bribes for pardons or ordering officials to overturn. election results.

    Does the Supreme Court’s decision really provide immunity for such bad acts? Some early rhetoric, including from stage dissenting judges, seems to suggest that it does. But I’m a little sceptical about that assertion and want to hear what cooler expert heads have to say (eg, George Conway).

  2. Just to give an example. The Supreme Court has sent Trump’s conversation with Pence re not certifying the election results back to the lower courts for determination. This seems fair enough to me on the surface.

    Whatever it was Trump said to Pence, Trumpbdidn’t actually have the power to order Pence to refuse to certify the results. And Pence didn’t do so. So, has a crime been committed here? I’m not sure.

    However, if Trump can be proven to have sooled the Jan 6 mob onto Pence, then that would surely not have been an official act, and would potentially have been a crime. Did the Supreme Court ruling grant Trump immunity in this instance? I don’t believe so. Let’s see what the experts say.

    If worst comes to worst and it turns out that the Supreme Court has truly ruled that the President possesses dictatorial powers, then they’ve also given Biden six months to use those powers against Trump!

  3. READ: Justice Sotomayor’s warning in her dissent:

    “When [the president] uses his official powers in any way, under the majority’s reasoning, he now will be insulated from criminal prosecution. Orders the Navy’s Seal Team 6 to assassinate a political rival? Immune. Organizes a military coup to hold onto power? Immune. Takes a bribe in exchange for a pardon? Immune. Immune, immune, immune. Let the President violate the law, let him exploit the trappings of his office for personal gain, let him use his official power for evil ends. Because if he knew that he may one day face liability for breaking the law, he might not be as bold and fearless as we would like him to be. That is the majority’s message today. Even if these nightmare scenarios never play out, and I pray they never do, the damage has been done. The relationship between the President and the people he serves has shifted irrevocably. In every use of official power, the President is now a king above the law.”

  4. Quasar. Yes, I read what Sotomayor had to say. But I’m not sure she’s right. Presidents who misuse their executive powers are subject to impeachment. There’s no immunity available to turn in relation to that process. Trump should have been impeached after Jan 6. McConnell’s gutless and ridiculous excuse for not doing it was that it should be dealt with by the courts.

    After a lot of hesitation, Garland decided to proceed with the current prosecution. Garland and Jack Smith always knew that there would be a mixture of immune and prosecutable actions in the case. The Supreme Court majority is correct that administrations should not just be allowed to launch criminal prosecutions against their predecessors about any or all decisions they might have taken. The exercising of presidential powers can never in itself be a criminal act.

    One might wish to quibble about where the Supreme Court has drawn the line between immune and prosecutable actions. But there should be such a line.

    It seems pretty clear to me that there are still plenty of things on which Trump can be prosecuted: the documents case, the Georgia case and some of the Jan 6 stuff. He’s claiming a triumph today, and Sotomayor seems to railing against a catastrophe. But are they right? I’m not sure.

  5. Just to give an example. The Supreme Court has sent Trump’s conversation with Pence re not certifying the election results back to the lower courts for determination. This seems fair enough to me on the surface.

    Whatever it was Trump said to Pence, Trumpbdidn’t actually have the power to order Pence to refuse to certify the results. And Pence didn’t do so. So, has a crime been committed here? I’m not sure.

    Conspiracy to Commit A Treasonable Act, or Conspiracy to Impede the Counting of the Electoral Votes, or something similar. But basically Conspiracy.

  6. “Peace for our time” claimed Neville Chamberlaine.
    And how did that work out.

    Whatever the result of the Presidential Election in the US, there is now a problem, which, if they get lucky,
    ” may just go away”!

    The Americans are fond of prayer.

    Democracy “got smacked in the mouth” before, during and after the last election and they’re lining up for another chance to prove that their system on so many levels is “off the rails”.

  7. The Lincoln Project@ProjectLincoln
    ·
    5h
    The Supreme Court is giving America a king for its birthday this year.

  8. c@t: “Mavis gets it right at 1.43am, meher baba. Basically Conspiracy.”

    But, on the face of it, I don’t read the judgement as ruling out a conspiracy charge in general, but perhaps just in relation to discussions with people who were part of his administration, eg the Attorney-General and perhaps some of his discussions with Pence. But Trump conspired with quite a few people who were not members of the administration and it seems that these actions can still be prosecuted.

    Anyway, all will become clearer when we hear from some experts.

  9. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    The conservative judges on the US Supreme Court have granted Donald Trump substantial immunity from prosecution for official acts taken as president, in a stunning ruling that liberal justices warn could give him the power to assassinate rivals and order military coups in the future. America is well and truly f****d!
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/us-supreme-court-grants-trump-substantial-immunity-from-prosecution-20240702-p5jqb6.html
    In a stark dissent from the conservative-majority US supreme court’s opinion granting Donald Trump some immunity from criminal prosecution, the liberal justice Sonia Sotomayor said the decision was a “mockery” that makes a president a “king above the law”.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/01/sonia-sotomayor-dissent-trump-immunity-case
    The US supreme court’s decision overnight to confer broad immunity to former presidents is likely to eviscerate numerous parts of the criminal prosecution against Donald Trump over his efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/01/trump-immunity-ruling-affect-criminal-cases
    Was Donald Trump a king during his presidency? The US supreme court thinks so, says Moira Donegan.
    https://www.theguardian.com/global/commentisfree/article/2024/jul/01/trump-president-immunity-supreme-court
    Anthony Albanese’s approval rating has dipped to a new low but there in the latest Essential poll are signs the opposition leader, Peter Dutton, has gone all-in on a losing hand, with voters concerned about the cost and safety of nuclear energy. Paul Karp says these are the results of the latest Guardian Essential poll of 1,141 Australians which found that nuclear energy has leapfrogged renewable energy as the perceived “most expensive” form of electricity.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/jul/02/guardian-essential-poll-albanese-approval-rating-peter-dutton-nuclear
    While the RBA nudges the brake, a reckless government pumps the accelerator, opines Stephen Hamilton.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/while-the-rba-nudges-the-brake-a-reckless-government-pumps-the-accelerator-20240701-p5jq2r.html
    Rebel Senator Fatima Payman has escalated her confrontation with the Labor Party by claiming “some members” are trying to intimidate her into quitting the Senate. Michelle Grattan says the government is uncertain whether the Greens will exploit the situation with another pro-Palestinian motion to have Payman – suspended from caucus but not expelled from the party – voting against Labor a second time.
    https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-fatima-payman-alleges-attempts-to-intimidate-her-into-quitting-the-senate-233673
    Paul Bongiorno says there is no easy cure for Labor’s Payman pain.
    https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/2024/07/02/paul-bongiorno-senator-fatima-payman
    The Australian mainstream media’s treatment of Labor Senator Fatima Payman – and her suspension from the Labor caucus – has been shameful, writes Rosemary Sorensen.
    https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/australian-medias-shameful-reporting-of-senator-fatima-paymans-suspension,18728
    NSW Opposition Leader Mark Speakman’s hold on the top job will be tested as senior Liberals resist any push to split the Coalition after firebrand Nationals MP Wes Fang sparked an internal war over a rogue Facebook post.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-liberal-party-mulls-coalition-split-as-row-intensifies-20240701-p5jq08.html
    The SMH editorial urges the NSW Liberal leader to stand his ground against junior Coalition partners.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-liberal-leader-must-stand-his-ground-against-junior-coalition-partners-20240701-p5jq1t.html
    Australia’s ‘carbon budget’ may blow out by 40% under the Coalition’s nuclear energy plan – and that’s the best-case scenario, explains Ben Teska.
    https://theconversation.com/australias-carbon-budget-may-blow-out-by-40-under-the-coalitions-nuclear-energy-plan-and-thats-the-best-case-scenario-233108
    The Dutton-Littleproud nuclear plan will make us poorer than we need to be and leave us more heavily in debt, argues Ralph Evans.
    https://johnmenadue.com/duttons-and-littleprouds-huge-economic-own-goal/
    As the Albanese Government tightens onshore visa policy, we are seeing the inevitable rise in appeals to the Administrative Appeals Tribunal particularly against student and asylum refusals, writes Abul Rizvi who says Labor and AAT feeling pressure of Dutton’s trafficking scam legacy.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/labor-and-aat-feeling-pressure-of-duttons-trafficking-scam-legacy,18729
    It is alarming that both Coalition and Labor politicians fail to acknowledge the risk that Australia could be left with no submarine capability by the end of the 2030s, writes James Curran who says the AUKUS ‘moonshot’ may be a tragically expensive failure.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/aukus-moonshot-may-be-a-tragically-expensive-failure-20240630-p5jpxe
    Sam Mostyn has promised to do the job in a ‘contemporary way’. It will be interesting to see how that aspiration pans out, says The Australian’s editorial which reckons she hit a good note on her first day.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/editorials/gg-hits-good-note-on-first-day/news-story/6e780117298f8c96a40173a49c11bdfd?amp=
    Elizabeth Knight believes that it is difficult to see anything much that will stimulate corporate profits in the remainder of this calendar year. She tells us why we’re going into the new financial year carrying last year’s problems.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/why-we-re-going-into-the-new-financial-year-carrying-last-year-s-problems-20240626-p5jowh.html
    According to Rob Harris, most Brits now think leaving EU was a mistake.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/bregrets-they-ve-got-a-few-most-brits-now-think-leaving-eu-was-mistake-20240630-p5jpu4.html
    There is a reason Nigel Farage hails Andrew Tate. And we should worry that young people are listening, warns Sasha Mistlin.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jul/01/nigel-farage-andrew-tate-reform-uk-youth-boost
    Hans van Leeuwen says France is teetering towards dysfunction as the vote puts the the far-right at the ‘gates of power’.
    https://www.afr.com/world/europe/france-teeters-towards-dysfunction-after-far-right-election-surge-20240701-p5jq7j
    The Biden campaign doesn’t control the courts. But the prosecutions of Trump, carried out by Democrat prosecutors, are a shocking and politically motivated abuse of process, whines Greg Sheridan.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/desperate-dems-will-hope-courts-throw-trump-behind-bars/news-story/2ffa9768571b49cdf3acaca68cb38b0d
    Stephen Bartholomeusz explains why the world fears four more years of Trump.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/why-the-world-fears-four-more-years-of-trump-20240701-p5jq0s.html
    Alan Kohler says that we need to prepare for the heat of a second Trump presidency.
    https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2024/07/01/alan-kohler-trump-carbon-emissions
    “I knocked Biden out of the race in ’87. Almost four decades later, he needs to quit again”, says the New York Tines’ Maureen Dowd.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/biden-is-as-selfish-as-trump-and-risking-the-democracy-he-wants-to-save-20240701-p5jq1w.html
    Biden’s family tells him he should stay in the race. Only 28 per cent of Americans agree.
    https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/only-28-per-cent-of-americans-back-biden-as-president-huddles-with-family-20240701-p5jq5c.html

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  10. meher baba,
    Jennifer Rubin outlines the ramifications of the judgement succinctly:

    More than six months after special counsel Jack Smith asked the Supreme Court for expedited review, and more than two months after oral argument, the Supreme Court held on Monday what every reasonable American already understood: Presidents do not get blanket immunity for crimes committed in office. However, the right-wing majority put its thumb heavily on the scale, thereby chopping off part of the indictment (i.e. consultation with the Justice Department) and setting the stage for a complex evaluation by the lower court as to the remainder of the conduct (e.g. conversation with the vice president, public statements), which may still be subject to criminal prosecution.

    Writing for the majority, Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. held: “We conclude that under our constitutional structure of separated powers, the nature of Presidential power requires that a former president have some immunity from criminal prosecution for official acts during his tenure in office.”

    He continued: “At least with respect to the President’s exercise of his core constitutional powers, this immunity must be absolute. As for his remaining official actions, he is also entitled to immunity. At the current stage of proceedings in this case, however, we need not and do not decide whether that immunity must be absolute, or instead whether a presumptive immunity is sufficient.”

    The notion that any illegal action could be draped in the cloak of “official conduct” should alarm all Americans. As the dissent points out, if as commander in chief Trump were to order Seal Team 6 to assassinate political opponents, what is to stop him? Given that the next president could be an already convicted felon, the prospect of an imperial president with a get-out-of-jail card should be terrifying. And to make matters worse, the court may not inquire into the president’s motive to determine if he was acting in an official capacity.

    Which conduct falls within which bucket — absolute immunity, presumptive immunity or no immunity for unofficial conduct? Roberts explained:

    ‘Certain allegations—such as those involving Trump’s discussions with the Acting Attorney General—are readily categorized in light of the nature of the President’s official relationship to the office held by that individual. Other allegations—such as those involving Trump’s interactions with the Vice President, state officials, and certain private parties, and his comments to the general public—present more difficult questions. Although we identify several considerations pertinent to classifying those allegations and determining whether they are subject to immunity, that analysis ultimately is best left to the lower courts to perform in the first instance.’

    Definitely out of bounds: immunity “from prosecution for the alleged conduct involving his discussions with Justice Department officials.” With regard to conversations in which Trump attempted to pressure former vice president Mike Pence, the court held that he was “presumptively” immune. Here, Roberts gave a hint that the presumption of immunity could be rebutted: “With respect to the certification proceeding in particular, Congress has legislated extensively to define the Vice President’s role in the counting of the electoral votes, see, e.g., 3 U. S. C. §15, and the President plays no direct constitutional or statutory role in that process.” So the Government may argue that consideration of the President’s communications with the Vice President concerning the certification proceeding does not pose “dangers of intrusion on the authority and functions of the Executive Branch.” That, however, will be left for the lower court.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/07/01/supreme-court-trump-immunity-jennifer-rubin/

    So it goes back to Judge Chutkan now to decide what is prosecutable, with guidance from Jack Smith, it seems to me.

  11. Muslim community leader on ABC news breakfast right now confirming anger at the treatment of senator Payman and that discussions are underway to run candidates against Labor

    Massive own goal here. Well done albo

  12. PageBoi @ #566 Tuesday, July 2nd, 2024 – 7:09 am

    Muslim community leader on ABC news breakfast right now confirming anger at the treatment of senator Payman and that discussions are underway to run candidates against Labor

    Massive own goal here. Well done albo

    You are supporting a globally-co-ordinated campaign to exculpate Hamas for what they did on October 7 to innocent Israelis, and continue to do to the innocent Israeli hostages. Hamas are Palestinians too and the government of Gaza. You want the Prime Minister to embrace that!?!

    Well done, PageBoi.

  13. The Supreme Court is truly partisan. There’s not even the attempt to appear non partisan.

    Thomas and Alito should’ve recused themselves from this ruling, but brazenly refused to. How Americans can have faith in their highest court is beyond me.

  14. Albo soft on terrorism paying a price now.Weak leader on so many issues let’s issues drift.
    Good to see finally after two years of dithering the Live sheep ban is through parliament.

    China will also eventually backfire appeasement is like that .

    54 %essential poll -think Australia is going in the wrong direction.

  15. Cough cough directions from William to stay away from gaza cough. On the management of a senator though… massive fuckup by albo. Well done…

    Also how are certain people still surprised that trump is not going to be done in by the US justice system. Hell, the system is there to mostly defend people like him from the rest of us…

  16. F**k off C@t, I said no such thing and you know it

    One day you might really amaze this blog by having an original thought instead of mindlessly parroting whatever the Sussex st line is that week

    I absolutely loathe the coalition with a passion, but f**k me the ALP manages to suck almost as much, and with ‘passionate’ supporters like yourself you can see why

  17. Pageboi your right; when your supporters think you can do no wrong, then your parties basically doomed to continue to lose votes from those who very much disagree that the party is always right…

  18. The mistake was the Labor party choosing Payman. Same as The Greens choosing Thorpe. Same as the Nationals choosing Gee. They all provide a common argument. The differences lie in whether those hearing their arguments happen to agree with them or not. Gee may be different from the other two in that at least he wasn’t a first termer. One could also prosecute the line that there is a difference in representation in the Senate vs the House of Representatives in that there is the option for party voting in the Senate.

  19. Seriously C@t, show one statement where I have supported Hamas. Any single one will do (hint, there aren’t any because I don’t and haven’t)

    Criticism of the israeli government is not antisemitism or supporting Hamas. I could very easily run the same sort of argument that you’re using and say C@t supports war crimes and ethnic cleansing. Well done C@t

  20. Confessions: “The Supreme Court is truly partisan. There’s not even the attempt to appear non partisan.
    Thomas and Alito should’ve recused themselves from this ruling, but brazenly refused to. How Americans can have faith in their highest court is beyond me.”
    —————————————————————————–
    Thomas and Alito are of course appalling. Trump’s appointments to the Supreme Court have received a lot of criticism from the political left, but the three of them appear to make serious, considered judgements: albeit usually (but not always) deeply conservative ones. Alito and Thomas generally behave like right-wing hacks. Shame on the Presidents who chose them (the supposedly “normie Republicans” Bush senior and Bush junior).

    But I have a fair deal of respect for Roberts, who seems to have been the driving force behind this ruling. At the end of the day, it’s not hugely different to the legal framework governing the exercise of executive powers by Australian governments.

    Abuses of power are a concern in any democratic system. If they involve corruption for personal gain, then they are crimes and should be treated accordingly. However, cases in which executive power is abused for political purposes (which is basically what we are talking about with Trump) are more difficult for the criminal justice system to deal with. The US has established what should be an effective system for dealing with these: the impeachment process. It should have been used in 2021 to bar Trump from ever running for office again. That the Republicans voted against this was perhaps one of the biggest disgraces in US political history. However, it’s not necessarily the Supreme Court’s duty to compensate for this by allowing the criminal justice system to be used as an alternative pathway to impeachment.

    I still want to see how this judgement plays out in practice. It’s potentially nowhere near as good for Trump as the doomsayers are suggesting.

  21. 2 days to go: Savanta UK @Savanta_UK
    NEW Westminster Voting Intention for @Telegraph
    2,287 UK adults 28-30 June (chg from 26-28 June)

    Highest Conservative vote share and lowest Labour lead in a month

    Lab 39 (+1)
    Con 24 (+3)
    Reform 13 (-1)
    LD 10 (-1)
    Green 4 (-2)
    ️SNP 3 (+1)
    Other 7 (=)

  22. @The Boi:

    “ Muslim community leader on ABC news breakfast right now confirming anger at the treatment of senator Payman and that discussions are underway to run candidates against Labor

    Massive own goal here. Well done albo.”

    ________

    Two questions (three actually):

    1. How many ‘muslim’ votes (and where) are going to switch from the ALP to muslim protest candidates?; and

    2. Where, ultimately do these votes land in the final 2PP count (ie. do they end up back with the ALP, go to the LNP or some third party candidate – Greens or other – in the final count)?

    Bonus question: how many ‘Muslim protest votes’ actually manifest as either informal votes or exhaust (ie. every box on the ballot is numbered except for the ALP and/or LNP candidate: which I understand the AEC will still count as a formal vote until it exhausts [I could be wrong about that though])?

  23. If you want a chuckle pageboi, I suggest reading some of the stuff they posted last night.

    Mb, love you reference to the “normal” republicans = good reminder that attempting to influence the branches of government by stacking them with individuals favourable to their causes has been around alot longer then trump, and to pretend that trump is the cause and not the symptoms of the system is absurd

  24. PageBoi,
    The old ‘parroting the Sussex Street line’ accusation again. 🙄

    Fyi, no I’m not. But what I can see that you cannot is that, while every death of every Palestinian since October 7 is abhorrent, I don’t exclusively blame the IDF for that. It’s not everything, but it’s a big something for sure. What I also know is that people like you are being played like fiddles by a campaign out of Iran, with help from Russia, to destabilise the West, especially in the run-up to the Presidential election in the US. If you don’t want to acknowledge that, fine, but don’t shoot the messenger of the geopolitical truth of the matter.

    Also, if I say that you ‘support’ Hamas it is only in recognition of the fact that Hamas is the government of the Palestinians of Gaza and the ones who continue to hold the Israeli hostages in defiance of massive efforts by Qatar, Egypt and the US to negotiate a peace deal, a ceasefire and the release of the hostages. So I guess you could say that it’s splitting hairs to say you support Hamas, but I just don’t see in many people’s responses to what is going on the recognition that Hamas bears some responsibility for the deaths of Palestinians since October 7 as well and so I’m glad that you have clarified that you don’t support Hamas. My point has always been that the spotlight of blame has totally been on the IDF but needs to be on Hamas and its funders and facilitators too. As the great Julia Gillard said, it’s not everything, but it’s something.

  25. Your pollyannism is appalling this morning Meher. You are truly blind and blinkered.

    The rule of law died in America overnight.

    The implications for australia are simple. The US President could arrange for a coup or a series of assassinations of the Australian Government if we don’t toe the Washington line overtly and without any fear of legal recriminations. We should break with them now.

  26. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Tuesday, July 2, 2024 at 7:45 am
    @The Boi:

    “ Muslim community leader on ABC news breakfast right now confirming anger at the treatment of senator Payman and that discussions are underway to run candidates against Labor

    Massive own goal here. Well done albo.”

    ________

    Two questions (three actually):

    1. How many ‘muslim’ votes (and where) are going to switch from the ALP to muslim protest candidates?; and

    2. Where, ultimately do these votes land in the final 2PP count (ie. do they end up back with the ALP, go to the LNP or some third party candidate – Greens or other – in the final count)?

    Bonus question: how many ‘Muslim protest votes’ actually manifest as either informal votes or exhaust (ie. every box on the ballot is numbered except for the ALP and/or LNP candidate: which I understand the AEC will still count as a formal vote until it exhausts [I could be wrong about that though])?

    ___________

    For the bonus question, the vote is informal in a Federal election for the House of Representatives if all but one of the boxes aren’t numbered.

    https://www.aec.gov.au/voting/how_to_vote/Voting_HOR.htm

    Edit: Badthinker has had more coffee than me this morning 🙂

  27. The whole “Australia MUST recognise Palestine as a state” [without the sensible pre-conditions that the Labor Policy sets out] is a blatant dog whistle for Hamas, PageBoi.

    I suspect you know that, and are thus just being disingenuous. … either that or just plain old fashioned stupid.

  28. Jewish protesters campaigning against military service outside the Israeli supreme court have been washed out by security forces who sprayed the group with a crowd-control substance.
    Six ultra-Orthodox Jews covered their faces as they were sprayed with skunk water, a non-lethal substance used by the Israel Defense Forces to control large demonstrations.
    The religious group began protesting outside of the court in Jerusalem on Tuesday following a ruling for ultra-Orthodox Jews to be conscripted into the army, despite them having been long exempt from serving. The court decided that pressure for manpower in the country’s ongoing war in Gaza was so great that the exclusion should be scrapped, forcing Jewish seminary students into the Israel Defense Forces. “At the height of a difficult war, the burden of inequality is more than ever acute,” the court’s unanimous ruling said.
    The court did not say how many yeshiva students will be made to enlist but said it would roll out conscription gradually and begin with 3,000 this year, in addition to those who had signed up voluntarily.
    However, ultra-Orthodox Jews have demonstrated against the decision since it was made, blocking roads and holding banners reading “death before conscription”.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/07/01/ultra-orthodox-jews-israeli-supreme-court-protest/

  29. Thanks Griff.

    I think there was a time when it was possible to cast a formal vote – say on a ballot paper of 5 candidates – by voting 1 to 3, as per instructions and then – as say a protest vote againt the ALP and Liberals by marking “4” next to both candidates. In which case the vote exhausted before the final 2PP count (assuming it ended up as a Labor vs Liberal contest).

  30. AE,

    Those are all very valid questions, particularly on a blog such as this. That you’ve asked them though seems to be in line with ALP thinking and practice in that it’s all about the electoral maths and not about good policy or doing what’s right.

    The coalition of course is even worse, in that they’ll literally say or do anything (see nuclear policy, immigration) for a perceived advantage and to get back into power. The best interests of the nation barely even register as a consideration

    The PV of the duopoly is in structural decline, and the ALPs is particularly low at 30~32% as per most recent polling. I’d argue that the focus on polling and horse race politics diminishes both sides of politics and we will continue to see more impetus for independents and protest movements. We may have witnessed the birth of yet another ‘anyone but them’ movement today if there are any legs behind this muslim sentiment, but given that the person I mentioned was from the imams council of Australia their opinion would seem to carry some weight within the muslim community, and the muslim community by its very nature of being based on organised religion would tend to be susceptible to direction by its leadership

    (PS I would never accuse you of being an ALP shill, you’ve consistently demonstrated your own ability to form opinions and prosecute arguments, and I value your contributions here greatly even if I don’t always agree with you)

  31. “Doing the Right Thing” IMO means not falling for Green Political Party stunts or giving unconditional support for Palestinian statehood whilst hapless Fatah are kicking around going nowhere and Hamas still runs the show in Gaza. To do so is engage in a blatant dog whistle for everything Hamas set out to achieve when it sanctioned the murder of 1200 people, the rape of many of them and the kidnapping of over 200 on 7 October.

    Unfortunetely, the Greens stunt appears to have revealed something about Payman’s character. Not in a good way either – because she knows – even if you won’t acknowledge it – that unconditional recognition of Palestine is a straight up win for Hamas. … no thanks.

  32. BK

    America is well and truly f****d!

    Never a truer use of the asterisk.

    Part of me thinks that the US deserves to have another Trump term (or terms, I’m sure the majority of the Supreme Court will rule that his Executive Order suspending the Constitutional term limits is a proper use of his power).

    And the only man standing in his way is an 81 year old who has lost a step, and is being advised by fools.

    Let’s hope we avoid the collateral damage.

  33. The fact that you view the whole Payman saga through the lenses of ‘the decline of the 2 party duopoly’ PageBoi tolls the bell: you are just looking for any issue to play politics with in order to shave votes off Labor’s left flank.

    There is no real moral principle at play here: just marxist electoral theory.

  34. “The implications for australia are simple. The US President could arrange for a coup or a series of assassinations of the Australian Government if we don’t toe the Washington line overtly and without any fear of legal recriminations. We should break with them now.”
    ——————————————————————————-
    Well, that’s what the US Government has been doing around the world at least since the end of World War Two if not before. Ever heard about what happened to the Allende regime in Chile or even the events relating to the Dismissal described in the book The Falcon and the Snowman (or the excellent movie of the same name starring Timothy Hutton and Sean Penn)? Have any past US presidents or government officials ever been convicted for such actions?

    Global geopolitics has always been a pretty dirty game. The US legal system has never provided much protection against it other than the First Amendment rights of the media to reveal some of what goes on to the public (eg, the Pentagon Papers).

    What we are talking about with this ruling is not geopolitical stuff, but the potential for US Presidents to use their office for personal or political gain. There is a risk that the Supreme Court ruling has gone too far in protecting these sorts of actions, but that’s far from clear at this point in time: we’ll see how things turn out over time.

    And surely you must agree with the general principle that elected officials of previous governments shouldn’t be regularly subject to prosecution by incoming governments? I know they weren’t prosecutions, but I thought that the Abbott Government’s appointment of Royal Commissions into the pink batts affair and (by implication) Gillard’s past work as a lawyer in relation to the AWU were absolutely disgraceful. The legal process should never be used in this way IMO. And I’m not certain that there isn’t an element of this sort of approach in regard to some of the current court actions against Trump, particularly the completed New York case. There seems to be strong support among many Dems for somehow finding a way of putting Trump in prison, but I’m not a fan: apart from anything else, I reckon it’s appalling politics.

    Impeachment was the right way to go with Trump, but the Republicans squibbed it, to their shame. That approach having failed, the next option is to make sure he loses the election. Unfortunately, the current President appears to be a dud candidate and the most likely alternative in Kamala arguably even more of a dud.

    This is all extremely bad news for the world, but I’m not sure that the answer is to imbue courts around the US with strong powers to convict past presidents: powers that the Republicans would undoubtedly attempt to use against Democrats with far greater force.

  35. AE, your blatantly wrong and spreading misinformation, while shifting it to the boring green stunt mantra… but hey, keep it up, if you guys beat on Labor enough those left wing votes will eventually come grovelling back to the party:)

  36. At this point I don’t even think it’s about the Greens motion or even necessarily the recognition of Palestine. Senator Payman clearly isn’t happy with the ALPs actions (or rather lack of them) when it comes to the Gaza situation. Albo and Penny Wong could do any number of things at this point beyond merely ‘urging restraint’, which is worth precisely nothing. I outlined some of the things the government could actually do yesterday, like recalling our ambassador, sanctioning the Israeli leadership, ending military ties and arms sales/purchases with Israeli firms. If the government did ANY of these things it would go a hell of a long way to calming the sentiment of the muslim community and no doubt Senator Payman would back the government’s position and feel comfortable toeing the caucus line

    The government has rightly called out the Hamas atrocity for what it is and has sanctioned Hamas appropriately, but it seems content to stand by and do nothing practical in the face of Israeli war crimes against civilians and borderline ethnic cleansing, whilst continuing to ‘do business’ with Israel and call them an ally, all whilst crapping on about the rules based order when it suits them. It’s a massive double standard and good on Senator Payman for taking a stand on it

  37. Are you now going to accuse Andrew_Earlwood of ‘parroting the Sussex Street line’, PageBoi? Because @ 8.04am he pretty much said what I did @ 7.48am. Or is that baseless accusation only reserved for me?

  38. Joe Biden hasn’t ‘lost a step’, he’s been a corrupt, venal grifter his entire career.
    Mortgaged his house 20 times, that’s money laundering

  39. Us Justice? System stacked with political appointees of course.Nothing surprises.

    Essential new way of looking at all polls now.My idea is…

    Lab/lib 63-others 37.

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