The Australian reports the latest Newspoll finds Labor recovering a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred, after the last result three weeks ago recorded a draw. However, both sides are down on the primary vote, Labor by a point to 32% and the Coalition by three to 36%, with the Greens up two to 13%, One Nation steady on 7% and others up two to 12%. Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 42% and up three on disapproval to 53%, while Peter Dutton is down one to 38% and up five to 54%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is 46-38, unchanged from last time. The poll also finds 42% support for Peter Dutton’s proposal of building nuclear power plants in seven locations announced last week, with 45% opposed. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1260.
Cat, why the hell would the teals go against the greens… it has an overlap but not nearly as much as, say, wealthier Labor members who disagree with greens economic policies but want more action in climate change…
Time for the Teals, and their new candidates, to start taking on The Greens.
Time for some Climate 200 Senate candidates!
Cat, why the hell would the teals go against the greens… it has an overlap but not nearly as much as, say, wealthier Labor members who disagree with greens economic policies but want more action in climate change…
Coalition down 3 on PV. Dutton must be cacking his strides while Angus does the numbers.
The LNP primary above 36-37 was pretty short lived.
I always used to think that if ALP + Green was 46% or above, then Labor was in front on TPP. Now with the large ON+ Others, its 45% or above.
I suspect KB might get almost 52/48 off those primaries.
But, hang on, I thought Dutton’s big brained nuclear power gambit was supposed to be the government’s downfall?
So did Gina, Asha. Lead balloon.
So nothing much changes – bring on minority government.
My all-polls aggregate post-#Newspoll 51.2 to ALP (and Labor really did do badly on the rounding there, before rounding it was 51.249.) Nothing has still happened in 2PP land in 3 months, very little has happened in 7: https://x.com/kevinbonham/status/1807379080226164853
The lack of female support for nuclear power correlates with their lack of interest in STEM subjects.
Asha, the concerning thing is that it was not his immediate downfall. That he is somewhat competitive on it after all the attention it got, and the Government giving it quite a bit of attention, including some amusing memes, is the concerning bit. He should not be competitive on it all.
I reckon it’s 52/48. Others, being Teals etc would have to be preferencing Labor or Greens 60%.
I’d be interested in William’s thoughts.
Kevin Bonham said the rounding went against the ALP, otherwise it was close to 52:48 on these PVs.
I agree Cat.
I also think the sound of a strong Animal Justice and Legalise Cannabis Australia sounds good too.
Take out a Greens Senator in a few seats.
Asha says:
Sunday, June 30, 2024 at 9:42 pm
Got any evidence to support that claim?
There’s plenty of evidence on this site alone of ALP supporters expecting the LNP’s nuclear policy to bury the LNP, but I have seen zero evidence of that.
FUBARsays:
Sunday, June 30, 2024 at 9:39 pm
Entropy says:
Sunday, June 30, 2024 at 9:34 pm
You have the comprehension skills of a tire iron, the logic skills of a kelpie on meth, and the debating skills of a lamp post.
I’m being polite.
=========================================
Actually you are not. If you believe you are then you have the self awareness of a ?. I decided not to stoop to that level so left the descriptor blank. So lets just say you have very questionable self awareness.
Women are generally smarter than men in my experience.
Launching a nuclear power policy during a cost of living crisis is going as well as conducting a referendum during a cost of living crisis …
I get pretty much 52-48 applying last election preferences to these numbers. To be clear, the explanation for this is likely that, before it was rounded for Newspoll, the numbers would have been more like, say, 31.6% for Labor and 36.4% for Coalition.
Cat
“ Time for some Climate 200 Senate candidates!”
Indeed. Hard to believe some of the LNP benchwarmers in the Senate wouldn’t lose votes to a quality Teal.
Like it or not the Greens targeting of the Muslim vote is probably working.
Holdenhillbilly@21:44
Nothing has still happened in 2PP land in 3 months, very little has happened in 7
The peasantry will decide when they need to decide, so far neither side is making an impression. There might be a few storm clouds in the near future too, especially regarding interest rates.
Quite a significant drop for the LNP of 3%.
This poll takes into account the Paris backflip and the recent announcement of reactor locations.
ALP primary, although anaemic, is higher than recent polls conducted by Morgan, Essential, Resolve & YouGov.
Difficult what to make of this poll, clearly LNP has got a smack.
When you are relying on rounding to give you reasons to celebrate, you may want to start thinking again about the substantive issues 🙁
The nuclear policy, made on the fly, will bury Dutton.
Well, waddya know? Labor leads a bee’s dick off 52-48, more or less the last election result. Polls go up and down, but by and large the numbers have hovered around that 52/48 average. Barring some sort of calamity, Albo and Labor will be re-elected next year, most likely with a similar outcome to 2022
wranslide:
The current housing and cost-of-living situation is an opposition’s wet dream. I think most governments would struggle to be well ahead in the polls in such a scenario, at least mid-term without an impending election to get the disengaged to begin properly considering the options.
Hey, turns out not giving a shit about groups within your voting base, and using them as progressive window dressing doesn’t work.
Thanks William.
Although a Labor primary of 31.6% is anaemic as Nadia says.
My 2PP Calculation, making assumptions about preference distribution: ALP 32 +0+(5/6)*13+0.4*7+12/2 —> 51.6%, which I’d round to 52%.
Margin of error ~ 1/√1260 —> 2.8% (round to 3%).
FUBARsays:
Sunday, June 30, 2024 at 9:45 pm
The lack of female support for nuclear power correlates with their lack of interest in STEM subjects.
============================================
https://www.smh.com.au/national/girls-have-overtaken-boys-in-science-participation-in-workplaces-it-s-a-completely-different-story-20230726-p5drah.html
Lynchpin says:
Sunday, June 30, 2024 at 9:43 pm
The LNP being within 2 percentage points (comfortably within the margin of error) after announcing their Nuclear Policy with the locations and more details to come, is hardly lead balloon territory. Frankly, I am bloody impressed with the Australian voting public being so mature about the debate and not folding to the ridiculous unscientific anti-nuclear propaganda.
Socrates says:
Sunday, June 30, 2024 at 9:46 pm
Kevin Bonham said the rounding went against the ALP, otherwise it was close to 52:48 on these PVs.
There is no rounding that would bring that back to 51. Almost back to the election result.
Dutton threw policy in the air, randomly shot and missed. What do the Liberals do now? Clearly Dutton hasn’t got what it takes. Nuclear isn’t going to save his bacon.
FUBAR:
Are you for real, mate? After Dutton’s announcement, there were a whole bunch of posts from our much-valued conservative contributors more or less saying that if Labor didn’t get on the nuclear train now, they were stuffed next election. I have no interest in going back and finding the posts in question – searching out old posts on this website is not an easy task and I have better things to do with my time – but feel free to trawl through them yourself if you want to debunk me.
And given how salty you clearly are right now, I’m going hazard a guess that you were thinking something similar, even if you never actually posted it.
Good lord, what century are you living in?
It’s got nothing to do with the science of it. The problem for Dutton and O’Brien is that it’s on the never never and is uneconomic. The boardrooms across the country can see that- and that’s where it matters. When you have the AFR slagging the policy, every right thinking person knows it’s a stinker.
I think it was also telling that the Coalition stopped bringing their nuclear policy up in question time after 2 days. It’s a dead duck.
Entropy says:
Sunday, June 30, 2024 at 9:53 pm
1. Give the breakdown in school subjects – they still avoid the hard maths and physics.
2. Uni enrolments in engineering, maths, physics and computer sciences continue to show a huge lack of interest from females.
I mean, it certainly isn’t ideal, but it’s not that much lower than the primary that they won the 2022 election with. Likewise, the Liberals are only just above the primary vote that delivered them their worst election result since 1946.
(Also, I believe the 31.6% was just a hypothetical figure thrown out by William to make a point, not the actual poll result.)
Asha says:
Sunday, June 30, 2024 at 9:59 pm
I have a daughter studying engineering at Uni. I am well aware of the data on female STEM subject participation. I’m dealing in facts – not opinion.
The negative reaction to the Coalition nuclear policy will be a slow burn. I expect we have seen the bottom for Labor barring anything big happening.
Yes, true Asha.
Interesting to see observations that the failure of the populace to embrace the Coalition’s nuclear policy is a “women’s problem”.
Entropy
Good response to FUBAR’s sledge.
I was going to back you up but you handled it well.
For those that missed it see below from FUBAR.
“You have the comprehension skills of a tire iron, the logic skills of a kelpie on meth, and the debating skills of a lamp post”
FUBARsays:
Sunday, June 30, 2024 at 10:03 pm
Entropy says:
Sunday, June 30, 2024 at 9:53 pm
1. Give the breakdown in school subjects – they still avoid the hard maths and physics.
2. Uni enrolments in engineering, maths, physics and computer sciences continue to show a huge lack of interest from females.
================================================
While no such poll has been done. I suspect that a poll of people with University degrees in STEM subjects. Would show that they dislike Dutton’s nuclear policy more than average. While i suspect the highest support would be from men with technical trades type qualifications. Obviously this is just my opinion. As i don’t know of any poll that looks at this breakdown.
While i believe the lower support for Dutton’s plan by women than men. Has nothing to do with their education. More to do with women not trusting Dutton and the LNP more than men. More women already know Dutton is a snake oil salesman and so find it easier to see that is what he is selling here also.
Kelpies are very intelligent
Lynchpin:
Poor FUBAR seems very grumpy that the electorate do not understand Dutton’s genius. Those silly women, not being convinced by a barely-sketched out policy completely lacking a credible business case.
Entropy there was some polling that showed it was younger people more accepting of nuclear energy and older people less so. Basically the opposite on voting intentions.
nadia88 says:
Sunday, June 30, 2024 at 9:51 pm
“ clearly LNP has got a smack.”
That’s only if you accept the last PV as accurate and not an outlier.
The trend is far more important than single polls.
Agreed davidwh. One Kelpie, One Vote.
Frankly, I’m bloody disappointed that more of the Australian public can’t see what a complete and utter crock Dutton’s nuclear fantasy is. It doesn’t help that much of the Australian media is reporting it as if it’s an actual plan, which it isn’t.
Even if some of these reactors are actually built, today’s toddlers will be adults before a nuclear reactor powers a single light bulb in Australia, prevents any greenhouse gas emissions or has any impact on power prices (which will actually be a massive increase).
Regarding whether it’s 51/49 or 52/48 it’s really more academic than important at this time. On those primaries Labor still wins.
Plenty of good news to come. Electricity bill credits and tax cuts start tomorrow, and wage rises for those on awards and the minimum wage. Other measures and wage rises for roles where a lot of women work also to come.
The Dutton/Littleproud nuclear shambles has not improved their vote. With the cost of living measure about to take effect expect a gradual improvemrnt in the ALP vote over the next few months.
davidwh says:
Sunday, June 30, 2024 at 10:09 pm
Yes, for a dog. They have yet to invent the wheel.