Further indications of a Labor recovery in Queensland from a Resolve Strategic poll in the Brisbane Times, putting them fully nine points higher off a dismal mid-year starting point to record 32% of the primary vote, with the Liberal National Party down four to 40%. The pollster breaks with its usual practice of not dealing in preferences, finding the LNP leading 53-47 on a respondent-allocated measure and 52-48 using preference flows from past elections – a strikingly narrow lead considering Labor in New South Wales failed to get a majority with 54.3%. Notably, the poll has response options reflecting the candidates in the respondent’s electorate, thereby removing the all-too-popular generic independent response and causing the independent result to drop from 9% to 2%. This did not yield a dividend for minor parties: the Greens and One Nation, who have candidates in every seat, are respectively down one to 11% and up one to 9%.
A leadership approval question emphasising “performance in recent weeks” produced a distinctly favourable result for Steven Miles, including in comparison with the recent YouGov poll whose survey period partly overlapped (October 10 to 16 for that poll, October 14 to 19 for this one). Miles registered a combined very good and good rating of 48%, with poor and very poor at 38%. While this had the edge on David Crisafulli’s 44% and 37% lead, Crisafulli retained a slight 39-37 edge on preferred premier, though this was greatly reduced from his 40-27 lead in the mid-year poll, which was conducted from July through to September. The sample for the poll was 1003.
I saw an Australian for Prosperity billboard on a inner northern Brisbane sign a couple of weeks ago (maybe in Stafford?) and wondered the same. It was not the clearest message in the world. I wonder why they see playing in Mansfield?
Your link there – Julian Simmonds was the LNP Member for Ryan before being knocked off by the Greens.
Nice for the LNP to show their natural colours after a third or so of people have voted already. Good luck contractors … we all know that includes health and education workers…
We got one of those flyers in Pumicestone. Threw it in the bin with the rest. So much money gets wasted during election campaigns on these flyers which end up as landfill
Fargo 61: I think that organisation is a LNP ginger group. A story in the Brisbane times said some liberal guys are directors including ex LNP Ryan member Julian Simmonds I would say the mining companies would be slinging them some dosh but could be wrong. I suppose it keeps them busy and in paid employ until they can get back on the public purse as members of parliament or councillors.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julian_Simmon
LNP in drag.
Some understandable wishful thinking in Labor ranks, but sadly from my perspective change of govt is inevitable. Greens supposed inner-city surge not happening, at least not in McConnel, and interesting to see how they re-group as a party after failing to win big, just like they predict every election….
@Baby Greasy
The Greens taking a swipe at Labor during the campaign preferencing KAP was really opportunistic. Firstly the Greens don’t have a hope in hell in winning seats in North and Central Queensland. And secondly most voters on the Left hate the LNP more then they hate KAP. It was a party that was more interested in point scoring rather then caring about the real issues. If they think their on winner by doing this well there not.
Newspoll just dropped. 52.5-47.5 to the LNP with Miles leading as preferred premier 45-42. Probably not enough ground made up for the ALP hopefuls (myself among them)
Primary votes 33/42/11/8
42% should be enough for a small majority. Where they may lose out is the outer Brisbane electorates.
Going to be close.
Honestly BruceMainstream, as a Labor man myself, I am very pleased with this result. I’ve conceded that Labor will lose power weeks ago, but the fact that Miles has come from a CanDoWipeout to being competitive in this QLD election just shows how great Steven Miles’ campaigning has been. I honestly think that they’ll lose the marginal regional seats, but gain a couple in the Brisbane area. This is more than enough for Labor to work with in opposition, and will set ’em up nicely for 2028 🙂
“the fun begins when the LNP has to actually govern while its leaders seems to be getting pulled in so many different directions by a fractured party machine… which is promising instant results in tricky policy fields where there are no easy fixes and where they’re most likely trailing public opinion”
If LNP actually do win, which is now unlikely IMO, then I happen to believe that something like what is described above by Baby Greasy (we can quibble on the details) might happen.
I mean, they might do a good job in lots of areas but the Government of the day always gets the blame and there’s always some people who voted for Party X who are disappointed once they get into government.
For this reason, I believe it will benefit the Coalition greatly at the fed election next year in Queensland if LNP don’t win this state election.
Newspoll 53.5 /47.5 is
So close to resolve 53/47.
Unless both polls are way out they seem to confirm each other.
This means there is a swing back which makes a hung parliament likely.
I don’t think Labor can win an absolute majority maybe the lnp can but this is no way certain and if it did would be razor thin just one or two by-elections away from disaster
Each poll is trending to Labor.
In the absence of anything suggesting the trend getting knocked off course, the late deciders will probably enhance Labor’s momentum further.
Could well be 50-50 or even 51-49 Labor on the day which, were it not for early voting, could mean a Lab majority. Perhaps a chance of one anyway, even if they lose the 2pp.
Mick apparently it is 52.5/47.5
I should also add, Miles leading on Premier 45-42 whilst statistically barely a lead is very significant taken in context and shows he’s not going be a drag on voting for Labor – another lead indicator on the final vote being more Labor than any polls have shown so far.
Are the swing voters who change their votes on a dime like this more or less likely to prepoll do you reckon? Intuitively I would think that prepoll would be mostly patry faithful?
Am I projecting? Yes, so? Shutup. A bit can hope.
52.5 should be enough for a majority LNP government but maybe not. This could still result in minority LNP government depending on where the vote falls .What is certain is that Miles has come across as an energetic young leader and Crisifulli has looked weak and has burnt off a lot of his popularity in the course of this election. Instead of starting off with a massive majority and a Labor party licking its wounds ruefully it looks like it will be the LNP wondering where 58-42 went in the course of 4 weeks. ALP will very likely hang onto its talent pool and somewhere upwards of 35 seats maybe even into the early 40s?
Hung Parliament.
Labor Minority.
Yes
My sums add to 101%
Got overexcited Mick. 🙂
So close! 4 weeks ago, I would have bet my house on a 10% swing. This is actually quite respectable for a 3 term government dealing with the dreaded ‘its time’ factor, alongside major inflation and cost of living pressures (not the state government’s fault, but nevertheless would influence votes).
Like most of those here, I can only assume, I’m a big fan of watching these things on the night. Give me Antony Green in front of some coloured rectangles over almost any way to spend a Saturday night. But a week ago I thought this one was going to be way too painful.
Now that the polls are where they’re at, I think I can do it now. I have almost reached acceptance that my side is not going to make it, and the next four years are going to involve the state getting dragged backwards in some many areas, because this is going to be a fascinating one to watch. Really looking forward to seeing how those chips are going to fall.
I grew up in Keppel; am now raising a family in Bulimba and haven’t really spent time in the outer suburbs.
Based on that and the way the campaign has gone, I reckon we’re going to see big 3rd party votes in regional Qld as lifelong Labor voters want to punish Labor but can’t stomach voting LNP. I reckon we won’t see much of a swing in Brisbane, but haven’t written off the Greens in McConnell and Cooper completely yet. I guess the remainder of the swing will be in Ipswich/Logan/Caboolture etc and presumably seats will fall there.
I don’t know the seats well enough to give a to-the-number prediction, but I’m not going to get my hopes up for a minority. Slim LNP majority – Crisafulli goes down in history as an awful premier- Labor stronger than ever in 4 years.
Oh, one more prediction I’m surprised more people aren’t making. The KAP incumbent in Mirani is gone. Seat probably goes back to One Nation or just to the LNP
Remember when I said the Liberal Party of Queensland knows how to screw it up this is what I’m saying they went from an absolute majority to now being a hung parliament god damn
New thread.
I am not aware of any polling in Mirani, but I agree, I think it will go to the LNP. The ALP vote will be much lower, at least 10%. I think folks here and in the media have been massively overcalling both Katter and One Nation. One Nation will do much better than 2020 (they couldn’t do worse). All the polling I’ve seen suggests Katter’s are having a really bad campaign in an election they should have picked up a seat or two.