The Australian reports the latest Newspoll finds Labor recovering a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred, after the last result three weeks ago recorded a draw. However, both sides are down on the primary vote, Labor by a point to 32% and the Coalition by three to 36%, with the Greens up two to 13%, One Nation steady on 7% and others up two to 12%. Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 42% and up three on disapproval to 53%, while Peter Dutton is down one to 38% and up five to 54%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is 46-38, unchanged from last time. The poll also finds 42% support for Peter Dutton’s proposal of building nuclear power plants in seven locations announced last week, with 45% opposed. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1260.
Oakeshott Country @ #497 Monday, July 1st, 2024 – 9:06 pm
Could have sworn it was a referendum question held at the same time as one of the elections.
Feeling old
Player One says:
Monday, July 1, 2024 at 9:02 pm
Griff @ #492 Monday, July 1st, 2024 – 8:59 pm
Tricot says:
Monday, July 1, 2024 at 8:57 pm
Player One….
Did you read what I actually said, or what you thought I said?
{snip}
____
“I know the answer to that! Pick me! Pick me! ”
Are you going to repeat the bit about … “the Establish Church used to facilitate the burning alive of people who did not agree with group thought.” … and then tell us how modern Labor is at least more enlightened than that?
I think we would all look forward to that!
__________
What has that got to do with your written comprehension skills, Player One? You don’t play the ball, or the person. You play a figment in your imagination 🙂
The Israeli Government and its agents currently hold 6,800 Palestinian prisoners. A large number of these people, especially the 2000 who are being held under administrative detention (and therefore face no formal charges or due process of any kind), can only be described as political prisoners. The Israeli Government could easily have secured the release of the hostages taken by Hamas in October 2023 by releasing some of the Palestinian political prisoners. They chose not to because they never cared all that much about the hostages. Netanyahu is exploiting the situation to remain in power. He fears the corruption charges that he will face after he loses power.
Lordbain…..Did they cobber? Well that is news to me………
Still, are you predicting a Tory win then…despite the voting process in the UK, or are you in for the stir? Suspect the latter….that is, if you are running true to form here.
Tricot, I honestly don’t know where you got the idea I’m predicting a Tories win. Labour will win, hell they will smash with regards to seats… on a potentially record low vote based on (admittingly one) data set. And the reason they will do so well seat wise while not doing so hot vote wise is because the UK has a shitty anti democratic fptp system.
Griff @ #502 Monday, July 1st, 2024 – 9:09 pm
Is that what you are? I had wondered … 🙁
Player One….You have lost me….You mean there is a difference between being a Green as opposed to being a Green in a party called the Greens?
Does that mean Greens take off their green clothes in the outside world but put them back on again when in the party room?
Look, cynical me says as long as the Greens cough up their 80% or so preference flow to Labor I will say nice things about the Green Party of Oz and all who sail in that good ship.
I just love the way the Greens get right up the noses of the Nationals….The Nationals hate the Greens with a passion out there in rural Oz – even more than that hate Labor…..
Player Onesays:
Monday, July 1, 2024 at 9:16 pm
Griff @ #502 Monday, July 1st, 2024 – 9:09 pm
You play a figment in your imagination
Is that what you are? I had wondered …
======================================================
“It is known that there are an infinite number of worlds, simply because there is an infinite amount of space for them to be in. However, not every one of them is inhabited. Therefore, there must be a finite number of inhabited worlds. Any finite number divided by infinity is as near to nothing as makes no odds, so the average population of all the planets in the Universe can be said to be zero. From this it follows that the population of the whole Universe is also zero, and that any people you may meet from time to time are merely the products of a deranged imagination.”
Lordbain….
Actually, I was not sure what you were getting at. What is the significance of Starmer’s party getting a lower vote than when Corbyn was leader….My question was, essentially, so what?
Entropy, have you tried throwing yourself at the ground and missing 😉
Aqua
The anomaly dates from the time of Jack Lang. He tried twice to abolish the Legislative Council , membership of which was by lifelong appointment by the Governor. He flooded the house with a suicide squad of Labor Party nominees who would vote themselves out of existence, as occurred in Queensland. Unfortunately on both times the Labor guys who got there decided life wasn’t so bad after all and voted against the bill.
The Bavin government, that followed Lang, inserted into the constitution, via parliament, a clause that the LC could not be abolished without a referendum and that clause could not be removed without a referendum. When Lang was reelected in 1930 he tried anyway and that led to the court case.
Since then numerous bits and pieces have been inserted into the constitution under the same proviso including the methods of electing both houses.
My point Tricot is that there won’t be the same blowback then there was with corbyn.
When corbyn lost there was a biiiiiig narrative about how this is what happens when labour goes left. Hell, there were people on this very thread who made that argument. So when starmer, the professional centrist fence sitter, may actually get a lower percentage of the vote, but because of the quirks of the system potentially get a super majority… well, I think that’s worth bringing up.
But hey, an unfair system is only shit when your on the losing side.
Lordbainsays:
Monday, July 1, 2024 at 9:24 pm
Entropy, have you tried throwing yourself at the ground and missing
================================================
Not successfully, managed the first step. It is this second part, the missing, which is still presenting some difficulties.
The Toorak Toff @ #460 Monday, July 1st, 2024 – 8:37 pm
Exactly.
And I’ll let you in on a little secret, which I found out when one of these Palestinian activists in the ALP spoke to our branch meeting last week. Hamas feeds videos to them daily containing the most graphic content they can find. So these people are being groomed to identify solely with the plight of Hamas and the people they rule over. Hamas are the only ones in charge of their media. The woman who spoke to us is a teacher and she said that she watches these videos in her lunch break. That shows a level of addiction to them to my eyes, which Hamas is feeding. Just like any drug. I bet Senator Payman has seen them too.
Lordbain says:
Monday, July 1, 2024 at 9:30 pm
My point Tricot is that there won’t be the same blowback then there was with corbyn.
When corbyn lost there was a biiiiiig narrative about how this is what happens when labour goes left. Hell, there were people on this very thread who made that argument. So when starmer, the professional centrist fence sitter, may actually get a lower percentage of the vote, but because of the quirks of the system potentially get a super majority… well, I think that’s worth bringing up.
But hey, an unfair system is only shit when your on the losing side.
_______
Interesting. Is it too late tonight for a thought experiment? Apply the very same logic to a minority government in Australia. Is a minority government more or less democratic than a majority government?
Hahaha holy shit… are we pretending that the IDF is friendly to journalists now?
Jesus wept…
C@tmomma says:
Monday, July 1, 2024 at 9:40 pm
The Toorak Toff @ #460 Monday, July 1st, 2024 – 8:37 pm
______________________________
C@nt
Griff, I think iv made it pretty clear that I find a minority government that needs to work with the crossbench etc to pass legislation is a far more democratic system
And if a party gets majority, one would hope there’s a correlation in the first preference voters..
Nicholas @ #495 Monday, July 1st, 2024 – 9:11 pm
You’ve received the emails from the Pro Palestinian activists too? Your words and those misleading figures, are exactly what the Pro Palestinian activist stated last week.
Let me tell you a couple more whoppers that they came out with, to save you the trouble.
1. What is happening in Gaza is the greatest genocide in history.
2. This didn’t start on October 7, 2023. It started in 1948.
Such utter self-serving garbage that blew my mind. But it’s convincing the gullible to parrot it. 😐
i agree completely with you, Nicholas @9:11, for what that’s worth. -regards, a.v.
Lordbain says:
Monday, July 1, 2024 at 9:46 pm
Griff, I think iv made it pretty clear that I find a minority government that needs to work with the crossbench etc to pass legislation is a far more democratic system
________
I acknowledge the belief. I am asking for the logic. It is alright if it is purely belief. We are human.
Princeplanet @ #464 Monday, July 1st, 2024 – 8:42 pm
Sounds like it’s a political football up there! That’s what you get when you abolish something else. The Upper House in Queensland. 😉
Oh wow… I know I’m blocked to certain people but that comment is amazingly awful.
It’s Palestinian spin that this didn’t start October 2023… Man, like wow even
Griff @ #511 Monday, July 1st, 2024 – 9:49 pm
It’s all about the vibe with Populists like The Greens. They don’t actually have to solve any problems for the benefit of the majority. Hence, they are able to be a very noisy minority.
nadia88 @ #448 Monday, July 1st, 2024 – 8:11 pm
And today she is tripling down. 🙄
Here’s my logic Griff; if you have a system where 1 person is 1 vote as close as possible (obviously ensuring some balance between regions so a single location demographic doesn’t instrincly dominate to the exclusion of all), then if you have a majority in said a system it would naturally reflect the majority of people. Obviously there’s issues with the tyranny of majority but in my opinion the two houses help limit this. And likewise if no single party has the majority, then it seems right that to pass policy, that policy should be based on cooperation of the majority of reps.
Again, no intrinsic logic other then my own biased view of fairness and democracy, and it’s hardly perfect.
More interesting developments from the French election:
* Pressure was mounting during the evening from left and centrist figures for tactical voting in the second round next Sunday.
* Thousands took part in street demonstrations against the far right, including at the Place de la Republique in Paris, where barricades were set on fire and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the hard left France Unbowed party, addressed the crowd.
* Gabriel Attal, the prime minister and a Macron ally, said “not one single vote” should go to the National Rally. “The stakes are clear: to prevent the National Rally from having an absolute majority,” he said.
* Mélenchon said the left alliance would withdraw all its candidates who came third in the first round, saying: “Our guideline is simple and clear: not a single more vote for the National Rally.”
* However it is not so clear that Macron’s centrist alliance will do the same. In a written statement, Macron called on voters to rally behind candidates who are “clearly republican and democratic”, which, based on his recent declarations, would include the NFP’s more moderate leftwing parties but exclude candidates from France Unbowed.
(The Guardian)
Thanks OC. I think I better copy and paste that somewhere. I remember covering the OPV topic previously and got the mechanics re it’s introduction mixed up.
Cheers
Hahaha classic; do everything to prevent the so called fascists… unless it means supporting anyone too far left… because fascists>communists.
Man, where have I seen this before in Europe…
This comment came from the Sorbonne today:
A bit more analysis from professor of political science Fréderic Sawicki at the Sorbonne. His tweet reads,
For their own benefit, the dominant parties have been refusing to introduce proportional representation since 1988. The two-rounds majority vote has now turned against them; with a third of the votes the RN
can in its turn win 50% of the seats. It’s up to these parties to prevent if by forming a republican front.
My review of “Rigged”, by Cameron Murray
I’ve been re-reading Cameron Murray’s magnum opus Rigged. I find it perceptive, elegantly written, and filled with practical proposals.
I like the main recommendation of the book: to remove the “grey gifts” completely, or at least require people to buy them at prices that reflect their true value.
I like the overview of how the grey gifts were created and dispensed, and how powerful networks of favour-traders emerged to control the grey gifts in order to extract wealth from the public.
Cameron Murray’s recommended changes to laws and regulations in the sectors where grey gifts abound – property development, banking, superannuation, mining, infrastructure development, pharmacies, private hospitals and private health insurance, and so on – would reclaim grey gifts for public benefit.
Cameron Murray’s recommended solutions to favour-trading are also great because they focus on prevention. Randomly selecting foreign technical experts to make major decisions that are mostly technical in nature but have a discretionary element. Using randomly selected and appropriately resourced citizen juries to choose the key decision-makers in public sector organizations, statutory organizations, universities, large private firms that depend on government contracts for most of their revenue, and large private media companies that have a major influence on how the public views itself and its public policy options. Capping the compensation paid to the top executives of universities and public sector bodies at the compensation paid to the Prime Minister.
The book is also helpful for what it says about which anti-corruption measures to avoid because they are very unlikely to help. Increasing the complexity of regulations. Increasing transparency without changing anything else (like the amount of resources allocated to prosecuting violations of labour law, environmental law, and public sector governance law; or the scope of activities and scenarios covered by legal definitions of corrupt conduct). These ideas are duds because regulatory complexity favours the powerful, who are experts at navigating regulation, and because the considerable transparency that already exists about the nature and the scale of grey gifts and favour-trading does not translate into changed behaviours.
A true populist movement would harness the ideas in Cameron Murray’s book to make the case for transformative change that benefits the public.
Cameron Murray makes a convincing case for doing big things like ending compulsory superannuation and highlighting how efficient the Age Pension is at financing retirees; creating a strong public option for goods that don’t lend themselves to a high degree of competition (like banking, housing, transport systems, telecommunications systems); resourcing public education and public health care to the extent needed to provide every aspect of health care and education, to every person, with a high standard of quality, and without user fees.
I would add to that list a public option for jobs, whereby the federal government enacts a Job Guarantee to create minimum wage jobs on demand, for anyone who wants to participate, with the federal government covering the wage and non-wage costs of the scheme, and with the employers being not-for-profit organizations who are strongly engaged at the grassroots level of communities (NGOs, cooperatives, local governments, etc). That would replace the current jobactive / Workforce Australia scheme, which is just a boondoggle for commercial firms who can’t solve the root problem (the lack of suitable jobs for job-seekers).
Cameron Murray should be commended for writing this book. It is a rallying cry and a manual for beating the grifters who rob us blind.
Lordbainsays:
Monday, July 1, 2024 at 9:51 pm
Oh wow… I know I’m blocked to certain people but that comment is amazingly awful.
It’s Palestinian spin that this didn’t start October 2023… Man, like wow even
==========================================================
Have to agree with that. Here is a section from an article from 2014. It could of been written today but it was actually written 10 years ago :
Article date 22 Aug 2014
“Anyone who cares about human rights and the factual record should be appalled at what Israel has done to Gaza. Even a pretence of even-handedness between the two sides is shocking, because the destruction is not even-handed at all. Every relevant human rights organisation and United Nations body – and even avowedly politically neutral organisations like the Red Cross – have pleaded with Israel and the world to end the fighting, because of the suffering that has been inflicted on the entire population of Gaza.”
https://www.abc.net.au/religion/not-in-my-name-response-to-alex-ryvchin/10099062
That’s enough about Gaza please.
Hey Nic, thanks for the review, I’ll have to check it out.
Entropy, good article. Honestly, ignoring the history like that is downright Orwellian
Not be before time:
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/01/politics/final-rulings-supreme-court/index.html
Lordbain says:
Monday, July 1, 2024 at 9:59 pm
Here’s my logic Griff; if you have a system where 1 person is 1 vote as close as possible (obviously ensuring some balance between regions so a single location demographic doesn’t instrincly dominate to the exclusion of all), then if you have a majority in said a system it would naturally reflect the majority of people. Obviously there’s issues with the tyranny of majority but in my opinion the two houses help limit this. And likewise if no single party has the majority, then it seems right that to pass policy, that policy should be based on cooperation of the majority of reps.
Again, no intrinsic logic other then my own biased view of fairness and democracy, and it’s hardly perfect.
________
Thanks for playing. So geographic location is a critical variable here. I happen to agree on that. Moving onto cooperation with the majority of reps. Tyranny of majority is an interesting concept. I struggle with it myself. It is when interest groups coopt the decision making process of the majority that we have detrimental effects to the majority, thereby limiting utility. How does a minority government ensure that the will of the few doesn’t outweigh the will of the many? That being said, I would prefer a minority government to a compromised majority government, as at least the process has greater transparency.
Griff, we disagree alot but yout not afraid to play the ball. And if I had the confidence to pretend like I had all the answers I would pull a Hobbes and bore students for the next several centuries.
William Bowesays:
Monday, July 1, 2024 at 10:15 pm
That’s enough about Gaza please.
==========================================
Sorry, will cease.
Apologies Will, last comment on topic was before I saw ban. Will comply.
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/article/2024/06/19/macron-accused-of-transphobia-over-criticism-of-left-wing-union-policy_6675177_5.html
Why I don’t feel too bad about macron… as he claims the far left is 4 times worse then the supposed far right. The fish hook is real…
😌
Lordbain says:
Monday, July 1, 2024 at 10:23 pm
Griff, we disagree alot but yout not afraid to play the ball. And if I had the confidence to pretend like I had all the answers I would pull a Hobbes and bore students for the next several centuries.
_________
I don’t have all the answers myself. Although boring others may be an answer to a long life, considering Hobbes almost cracked a century.
Entropy says Monday, July 1, 2024 at 9:22 pm
I’m not sure there are an infinite number of worlds. But, let’s except there is for the purposes of reviewing the rest of the argument.
I’m not sure you can say that because the number of populated worlds is less than the number of worlds, and the number of worlds is infinite, therefor the number of populated worlds is finite. Let’s look at that another way. If you say that the number of populated worlds is infinite (given that space is infinite), and one in 10 worlds is populated, then you could state that infinity x 10 = infinity. If that’s true, then isn’t it also true that infinity / 10 can equal infinity?
Infinity is really strange in maths, there seems to be lots of infinities (an infinite number?). I think there are some good Youtube videos on the topic by Numberphile (an Australian as it happens).
Andrew_Earlwood at 8.02 pm and AnteMeridian at 8.04 pm
Sometimes the exact answer is not readily available on the net.
There does not appear to be an article, or honours thesis, about NSW Labor’s OPV own goal.
Wran was the Premier but Graham Richardson surely deserves the prize for the silliest tactical error possible, although Dutton giving the erstwhile Lib heartland seats to the Teals on a platter goes close.
That’s right C@t but the fact the ALP is able self regulate under this unicameral system and the LNP tends to go nutso is what has resulted in 35 years of mostly Labor dominance at state level and let’s not forget that we got rid of the death penalty way before the now progressive wonderland of Victoria.
bcsays:
Monday, July 1, 2024 at 10:47 pm
Entropy says Monday, July 1, 2024 at 9:22 pm
============================================
You do know it is from the Douglas Adams book “Restaurant at the End of the Universe? Hence Lordbains reply and my reply to that paraphrasing from “Life, the Universe and Everything”.
It is only meant to be humorous and not probably to be taken seriously scientifically or mathematically though.
Anyway time for bed, “so long and thanks for all the fish”.
I don’t think this whole furore with Senator Payman is going to help Labor’s political position, on reflection it’s a seat they probably wished they didn’t unexpectedly pick up in WA. Her position isn’t even that different to the official one yet she has essentially been ostracised/expelled from the party. It’s going to drive a core section of their constituency to Greens and others.
In regards to France if parties actually want to stop a slide to fascism then they should either step aside in the second round to the party that is clearly in the best position or come to some agreement with other parties to ensure there are only 2 candidates in a run-off with National Rally to the party/coalition that is considered in best place to defeat them.
The law to phase out the live sheep trade has passed the Senate. This is excellent news and the ALP deserves ten out of ten for seeing this election commitment through. My local member, Steve Georganas, has been a passionate advocate for this cause. He has spoken on it in Parliament and has always replied at length to my concerns.
There’s an organisation called Keep the Sheep who are very disappointed their petition to allow them to continue to make a living out of cruelty to animals has failed. WA Farmers president, John Hassell, says they are now going to campaign against the ALP in every marginal seat in the country. It’s because of people like this I prefer animals.
Misanthrope says Tuesday, July 2, 2024 at 12:08 am
“Keep the Sheep”? What an odd name. I thought that exporting the sheep meant that they didn’t want to keep them. I’m sure the animal rights activists would be quite delighted if the farmers kept the sheep rather than sending them off.
A predictable decision though the ruling does exclude immunity for
unnoffical acts, so presumably the Mar-a-Lago documents case can proceed, as could Smith’s indictment against Trump for conspiracy to defraud the US and conspiracy against the rights of citizens, ditto the matters before Chutkin, J that gave rise to the Supreme Court appeal. The problem is though, Trump could be enscounced in the WH before he goes to trial, and then direct his A-G to nolle the indictments.
– Guardian
Sotomayo’s scathing dissent, which I think is overdone:
“Let the President violate the law, let him exploit the trappings of his office for personal gain, let him use his official power for evil ends. Because if he knew that he may one day face liability for breaking the law, he might not be as bold and fearless as we would like him to be. That is the majority’s message today. Even if these nightmare scenarios never play out, and I pray they never do, the damage has been done. The relationship between the President and the people he serves has shifted irrevocably. In every use of official power, the President is now a king above the law.”
“Orders the Navy’s Seal Team 6 to assassinate a political rival? Immune. Organizes a military coup to hold onto power? Immune. Takes a bribe in exchange for a pardon? Immune. Immune, immune, immune.”
“Let the President violate the law, let him exploit the trappings of his office for personal gain, let him use his official power for evil ends. Because if he knew that he may one day face liability for breaking the law, he might not be as bold and fearless as we would like him to be. That is the majority’s message today.”
The justice did not end the dissent with the traditional “respectfully” language.
“With fear for our democracy, I dissent,” Sotomayor wrote.’] – CNN
On Thursday week, Merchan, J knows what’s expected of him.