The Australian reports the latest Newspoll finds Labor recovering a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred, after the last result three weeks ago recorded a draw. However, both sides are down on the primary vote, Labor by a point to 32% and the Coalition by three to 36%, with the Greens up two to 13%, One Nation steady on 7% and others up two to 12%. Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 42% and up three on disapproval to 53%, while Peter Dutton is down one to 38% and up five to 54%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is 46-38, unchanged from last time. The poll also finds 42% support for Peter Dutton’s proposal of building nuclear power plants in seven locations announced last week, with 45% opposed. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1260.
If politicians want to cross the floor they should join the liberals or join labor and accept they can’t cross the floor.
AnteMeridian @ #448 Monday, July 1st, 2024 – 8:04 pm
Don’t worry. Been there done that.
I remember having a discussion with Oakeshott Country a while back about whether it could be changed without a referendum but can’t remember the conclusion.
Lordbain says:
Monday, July 1, 2024 at 7:54 pm
The Palestinians are holding hostages… not hamas. Interesting use of language there…
I believe that is the official position of Hamas
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-790201
C@tmommasays:
Monday, July 1, 2024 at 7:57 pm
S. Simpson @ #419 Monday, July 1st, 2024 – 7:36 pm
Confessionssays:
Monday, July 1, 2024 at 7:32 pm
sprocket_ @ #413 Monday, July 1st, 2024 – 7:23 pm
About time Adam Bandt was managed out.
He has presided over the destruction of a young Muslim woman’s career and all he can do is stand on her ashes and crow about it.
The man is an absolute disgrace.
————————-
Strange way of looking at the problem. This mess is wholly of Albanese and Wong’s doing.
Because Labor put a young Muslim girl from WA on the Senate ticket? Then she got into the Senate…and defied the rules of the party that put her there. Yep all the PM and FM’s fault.
=============================
And to top it off she doubles down over the weekend on national TV.
No if’s and but’s. Out!
The NSW Wran Labor Government introduced optional preferential voting in the early 1980s when the historic DLP, although gone by then, was still fresh in traumatised Labor memory. The Greens had not yet been founded. The Australian Democrats were up and running but maybe Labor thought back then that they were a flash in the plan.
OPV was added to the section of the NSW Constitution requiring a referendum to change – so it’s with us forever.
nadia88
Per Bludgertrack – it appears it is now current to 11-Jun. I’m sure the last date I saw was 17-Jun and a 50.4% alp 2pp. WB – Did you have to do a re-calc on bludgertrack out of interest.
No, i’m making the observation that 32.5% for Labor
is worse than 32.6% at the ’22 election, since it can’t take account of strategic voting.
____________________________
On Payman, she came across on Insiders as intelligent and having her feet in the ground.
If Wong as leader in the Senate has mismanaged the situation, she should be moved on asap.
About time Adam Bandt was managed out.
_______
About time Adam Bandt grew up.
Funny (speaking for ACT only) can certainly say there’s no desire to move Bandt. Sorry guys
In a beat up on local Ch9 news a so-called spokesman for the Muslim community is calling to take action in four Labor held seats on behalf of Muslims, Palestinians and others over the treatment of the Senator.
I wonder if this is such a smart move in that there are heaps of r/w Australians who will only have their views confirmed about “all Muslims are the same” being Muslim first and Australian second.
It also begs the question of just what direction the so called monolithic Muslim vote (if it in fact exists) should go? Other than the Greens – unlikely ever to be in office in Oz in the next 20 years – who else is out there to support this lot?
As if it matters, UK Labour has to confront the same issue but I don’t think the impact of the Muslim vote in the UK is going to prevent the likely massacre of the British Tory party on Friday.
I suspect Labor locally is in much the same situation.
I remember a discussion concerning entrenchment in Victoria’s constitution.
I think the consensus is that barring an act from being repealed without a referendum is valid, but only if certain conditions are met. I have no idea if those conditions apply to the NSW OPV case.
But that consensus surprises me, because I would have thought a parliament can’t bind its successors, no matter what.
The head of Yougov in the UK gives his take just now on the polling..
https://youtu.be/PKGx08azdL8?si=KZdxTCMiVoD193HT
Hahaha omg…. starmer may get even less votes then Corbyn. I can’t wait for the exact same narrative…
And before the bleeding hearts get stuck into me re Payman, let it be said, good luck to her as she seems a sincere and committed person.
Trouble for her is that political parties have rules which are meant to be accepted by all those who sign up. This does not mean the rules of operation cannot be changed and maybe Labor does need to cut some slack to dissenting views. However, you can’t have it both ways. On either agrees to the ethos of the team – on at least signing up – tries to change the ethos from within and failing this, say what is in your heart, but step outside the team to do so and paddle away on your own.
At the moment the r/w vultures are trying to show up Labor as some heartless and cruel outfit treating the poor girl in a bad way……I don’t think she even realises what a pawn in the political game she has become…
Lordbain says:
Monday, July 1, 2024 at 4:42 pm
Griff feel free to roast me.
How can a state, and a non state, negotiate on an equal footing…
_______
Normally happy to go the biff. But not regarding the Middle East. There are no winners. Only losers. We even have losers in Australia.
Rishi Sunak ain’t no BoJo – and the UK first past the post system is going to deliver these lopsided results.
Labour with a projected 37% of the vote will likely get 61% of the seats
Payman is pretty naive. She’s allowed herself to be manipulated by cunning bastards who are looking after themselves but doing nothing to advance the cause of Palestinians.
Quite sad actually.
Lordbain….
So you are predicting a return of the Tories on Thursday or just clutching a sodden straw?
Turnouts for elections in the UK are unlike Oz though you probably well know this in your attempts to make a telling comment. At some of the by-elections only 40% of the electorate bothered to vote
If 10 people have the ability to vote, 5 don’t bother and 3 vote Labour and 2 vote Tory who forms government?
I see Corbyn’s predicted vote is miles behind the Labour candidate so what do you make of that?
Why do you bother?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-01/teal-style-muslim-political-group-to-target-labor-seats-payman/104043742
It’s a pity this group did not show the same drive and solidarity towards the indigenous voice to parliament. I suspect One Nation will be the biggest beneficiaries from this.
Tricotsays:
Monday, July 1, 2024 at 8:29 pm
And before the bleeding hearts get stuck into me re Payman, let it be said, good luck to her as she seems a sincere and committed person.
Trouble for her is that political parties have rules which are meant to be accepted by all those who sign up. This does not mean the rules of operation cannot be changed and maybe Labor does need to cut some slack to dissenting views. However, you can’t have it both ways. On either agrees to the ethos of the team – on at least signing up – tries to change the ethos from within and failing this, say what is in your heart, but step outside the team to do so and paddle away on your own.
At the moment the r/w vultures are trying to show up Labor as some heartless and cruel outfit treating the poor girl in a bad way……I don’t think she even realises what a pawn in the political game she has become…
————————
There’s three big rules in the labor party
Don’t run against or support a candidate running against an endorsed candidate
Don’t cross the floor of parliament
Support trade unions
People supporting senator Payman seem to be supporting her because she supports something they support.
C@t: OPV should be abolished by the ALP . Here in Qld the LNP is promising to reintroduce it. They know that green voters will likely preference Labor if they have to but probably won’t if optional. Candoe Newman if you remember him won an enormous majority under this system. At council level in Brisbane the LNP have been in for a long time due to OPV – amazingly our local Murdochracy paper has been talking up the its time factor at state level but not at council level- go figure!!! lol
Tricot @ #463 Monday, July 1st, 2024 – 8:29 pm
So, when you join Labor you must agree that you no longer have a conscience of your own?
No wonder Labor struggle in the modern world.
On the subject of the hostages = Hamas holds most of the hostages but some of the minor groups like Palestinian Islamic Jihad holds a few too. This has been a slight sticking point in the ceasefire discussions – Hamas may not be able to return all the hostages.
For the Israel point of view, the war is not going great either. They’re still losing soldiers almost every day. The “good will” balances with most of the world is spent. Most of hostages are not back – they got more back in the first ceasefire then any time since. The economy has yet to pick up where it was pre October 7th. If they do end up with a hotter conflict with Hezbollah, then they will be in a two front war.
I don’t know what either sides end game is. Is Israel just waiting for Trump to win and then they can get away with a mass deportation? Do Hamas actually think they can retake control of Gaza? They can’t even be moved into exile as there is no “Libya”* to take them.
* Libya used to give all the hijackers asylum in the 70s to 90s.
I’m mocking a shitty electoral system. Not sure how that’s so controversial. Next thing I’ll have someone defending the US system…
Player One
So, when you join Labor you must agree that you no longer have a conscience of your own?
No wonder Labor struggle in the modern world.
—————
They are in government federally and in most states and the party that lets members cross the floor is struggling to win back its suburban heartland.
Can we have the moratorium back please William?
Mexican, that’s claiming that allowing crossing the floor is the reason they are in the wilderness, and not shitty policies… correlation causation blargh blargh
Mexicanbeemer @ #473 Monday, July 1st, 2024 – 8:45 pm
So the key to success is to have no conscience?
No wonder Labor struggle in the modern world.
Lol they’ve lost their fckn minds
Lordbain @ #476 Monday, July 1st, 2024 – 8:47 pm
I believe we have established that a conscience is a contraindication for political success.
Player One
So the key to success is to have no conscience?
No wonder Labor struggle in the modern world.
————————-
Labor isn’t the party struggling to win its heartland.
Mexicanbeemer @ #480 Monday, July 1st, 2024 – 8:49 pm
You’ve not glanced at BludgerTrack recently?
Lordbainsays:
Monday, July 1, 2024 at 8:47 pm
Mexican, that’s claiming that allowing crossing the floor is the reason they are in the wilderness, and not shitty policies… correlation causation blargh blargh
———————-
That was a rebuttal to the comment that labor was politically struggling because they don’t allow members to cross the floor when it’s the liberals that let members cross the floor.
Bizzcan says:
Monday, July 1, 2024 at 8:40 pm
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-01/teal-style-muslim-political-group-to-target-labor-seats-payman/104043742
It’s a pity this group did not show the same drive and solidarity towards the indigenous voice to parliament. I suspect One Nation will be the biggest beneficiaries from this.
__________
They are saying that this the time for this group to rise up, yet the spokesperson not willing to say who they are?
“The spokesperson, who declined to give his name, said the collective had over 2,000 volunteers and was in the process of choosing candidates to endorse in several Labor-held seats in western Sydney.”
Makes me wonder what they are really there to do.
Also with regards to the UK electoral system…. I’m rightfully mocking it for the pos it is. Unless someone here wants to defend it?
Player One says:
Monday, July 1, 2024 at 8:51 pm
Mexicanbeemer @ #480 Monday, July 1st, 2024 – 8:49 pm
Player One
So the key to success is to have no conscience?
No wonder Labor struggle in the modern world.
————————-
“Labor isn’t the party struggling to win its heartland.”
You’ve not glanced at BludgerTrack recently?
_____________
Have you heard of the Teals? 😉
Player One
Labor isn’t the party struggling to win its heartland.
You’ve not glanced at BludgerTrack recently?
———————–
Labor has been leading the TPP for most of this term and its primary is down but it wasn’t that good at the last election.
Griff @ #485 Monday, July 1st, 2024 – 8:53 pm
Do they allow their members to have a conscience? What a bunch of no-hopers!
Mexicanbeemer @ #486 Monday, July 1st, 2024 – 8:54 pm
Nor is it ever likely to be again.
Player One….
Did you read what I actually said, or what you thought I said?
The matching of one’s conscience against that of the mob has troubled human civilisation since earliest times. I understand the Establish Church used to facilitate the burning alive of people who did not agree with group thought.
We now live (hopefully) in more enlighten times….People are welcome to conscience and they may turn out to be on the right side of history, but the question arises as to why sign up with an outfit whose ethos you disagree with?
If the Senator does not agree with current Labor policy and practices she can use the exit door at any time and fight her good fight (as she sees it) on the cross benches or join one of the splinter groups in the Senate. She says she still believes in Labor values – that is – most of them perhaps….Kind of half pregnant?
Tricot @ #489 Monday, July 1st, 2024 – 8:57 pm
Well, some of us do. Just not Labor … yet … 🙁
Badthinkersays:
Monday, July 1, 2024 at 8:14 pm
nadia88
Per Bludgertrack – it appears it is now current to 11-Jun. I’m sure the last date I saw was 17-Jun and a 50.4% alp 2pp. WB – Did you have to do a re-calc on bludgertrack out of interest.
No, i’m making the observation that 32.5% for Labor
is worse than 32.6% at the ’22 election, since it can’t take account of strategic voting.
____________________________
On Payman, she came across on Insiders as intelligent and having her feet in the ground.
If Wong as leader in the Senate has mismanaged the situation, she should be moved on asap.
==========================
No argument Badthinker from me with regard to the ALP primary. It’s anaemic.
I was actually directing the query to our site host with regard to bludgertrack too, regarding the dates on bludgertrack. It’s a non issue.
Last week, and this week, should have been a good period for the ALP, however all we hear on the media is Payman, Payman, Payman and ALP division headlines. To be frank, it’s all a bit of a mess and I’d expect the ALP primary to start trending down during July. Yes Lars – you can expect <30% primary on two or three polls by 31-Jul.
With regard to Sen.Wong though, I don't see how she has created this mess. She is a pretty steadfast Labor person and would've provided the correct advice to Sen.Payman before the latter crossed the floor. Remember, Sen Wong had to "vote against gay marriage" 12 years ago. That must of hurt but she stuck to the party line instead of getting caught up in emotion. I think she may have even been accused of homophobia. That's how sick politics was 12 years ago. We're getting it again.
With regard to Payman coming across "as intelligent" on TV, well that is up to the TV producers how they make a politician look. They can make them look ridiculous as well. Darken the screen and put in a spooky soundtrack and you can make a politician look sinister.
I wouldn't take some "puff piece" seriously.
The Senator in question got her spot in parliament because hard working branch members in W.A. worked their backsides off to get a 3rd Senator up in that state. I expect that support will evaporate well before 30-Jun-2028.
Tricot says:
Monday, July 1, 2024 at 8:57 pm
Player One….
Did you read what I actually said, or what you thought I said?
{snip}
____
I know the answer to that! Pick me! Pick me! 🙂
Lordbain….
So Labor is going to change FPP after Thursday when this system all but destroyed them at the last UK election? And you think there is any change likely in the near future to our system? You’re dreaming sport.
Griff @ #492 Monday, July 1st, 2024 – 8:59 pm
Are you going to repeat the bit about … “the Establish Church used to facilitate the burning alive of people who did not agree with group thought.” … and then tell us how modern Labor is at least more enlightened than that?
I think we would all look forward to that! 🙂
Player One….
You are likely to be a very nice person but a Green Dreamer…..All care and no responsibility.
I was listening to the BBC last night and the one and only Green member of the Commons is retiring. What struck me was the uncanny resemblance of her Alice in Wonderland politics in the Green movement in the UK and the Green outfit here…..Maybe the Green Time will come 25 years from now when the planet is sliding into destruction and the Greens will be able to tell us who right they were back in 2024…….Then again…..
Yes Tricot, it’s not like the Labour party adopted a position for pr back in 2022. Not like there’s was a poll 6 days ago showing the majority of labour members support pr
https://labourlist.org/2024/06/first-past-the-post-labour-proportional-representation/
Sport
OPV in NSW
Was inserted in the NSW constitution by the Parliament without a referendum but with the proviso that it could only be removed by a referendum.
How is that fair?
Well, it just is and a leading case challenge to this anomaly in the NSW constitution went all the way to the Privy Council and was defeated in the 1930s
Adam Bandt quite happy pushing his one line on 7.30 until he got a question he didn’t like about greens internal issues. Then positively Trumpian in his total disregard for the question, completely ignoring it.
Sorry, there’s a little trafficked branch line as well, a coupla mentions of Dutton.
Player One …touche…..
I don’t hate the Greens as many on the conservative side of politics do. Some I know who are former Labor supporters are now Greens and we still get on. Doesn’t alter the fact that Green policies are disliked by many on the right and considered the result of hope over practicality by the rest of us.
Tricot @ #495 Monday, July 1st, 2024 – 9:04 pm
By “Green” do you mean “green” or “Greens Political Party”?
Apparently the distinction is important. Or something.