Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: April to June (open thread)

Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns record Labor sloping downwards in four states while recovering in a fifth. Also: the aftermath of Fatima Payman’s resignation from the ALP.

The Australian today publishes Newspoll’s quarterly state and demographic breakdowns, the latter encompassing gender, age, education, income, working status, language, religion and housing tenure. This encompasses four Newspoll surveys conducted from mid-April to late June, with a combined sample of 4957, breaking down to 1567 for New South Wales down to 368 for South Australia.

The results show Labor deteriorating by a point on two-party preferred in four of the five mainland states, with the Coalition leading for the first time this term in New South Wales, by 51-49; increasing its lead in Queensland to 54-46; and continuing to trail in Victoria, by 54-46, and South Australia, by 53-47. Conversely, the volatile small sample result for Western Australia has Labor back in front by 52-48, after a 54-46 Labor lead in the last quarter of 2023 became a Coalition lead of 51-49 in January-to-March.

A few other bits and pieces from the past fortnight:

• The resignation of Western Australian Senator Fatima Payman from the ALP this week was the party’s first defection since it came to office, reducing its numbers in the 76-seat chamber to 25, with the Coalition on 31 (down one since the election with the resignation of Victorian Senator David Van in June 2023), Greens 11 (down one since February 2023 with Victorian Senator Lidia Thorpe’s resignation), One Nation two, Jacqui Lambie Network one (down one since March with Tasmanian Senator Tammy Tyrell’s resignation), United Australia Party one and five independents (the four aforementioned plus ACT Senator David Pocock).

Nine Newspapers reports an alliance of Muslim groups that has been in talks with Glenn Druery “plans to run candidates against half-a-dozen Labor MPs in the lower house and in the Senate”. Alexi Demetriadi of The Australian reports target seats include Tony Burke’s seat of Watson, Jason Clare’s seat of Blaxland, and Wills in Lalor in Melbourne. The groups in question include The Muslim Vote, modelled on a similar enterprise in the UK that contributed to the loss of four Labour seats to independents yesterday in areas with large Muslim populations. The BBC reporting Labour’s vote share fell 23 points in seats where Muslims accounted for more than 20% of the population. Fatima Payman said she had met with the group last month, but said yesterday she did not intend to collaborate with them.

Sean Ford of the Burnie Advocate reports Burnie deputy mayor Giovanna Simpson has nominated for Liberal preselection in Braddon, which will be vacated after incumbent Gavin Pearce announced his retirement a fortnight ago. Simpson ran in Braddon at the state election and polled 2.6%, the highest out of the non-incumbent candidates on the Liberal ticket.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,523 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: April to June (open thread)”

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  1. “you snob.”

    Yeah …..I am stricken!!!

    But as it happens i still have some of the really nice Gin i was drinking while discussing how not to blow up the world. Good memory that.

  2. Well Melbourne beat the Bombers now if only the Lions can beat the wounded Eagles then we will be in the four for a week at least.

  3. Darn getting ahead of myself Gold Coast have to beat Port or fifth is the best outcome. Can’t recall a season where it has been as tight as this year so late in the season.

  4. Oh well, no more lefties to play with.
    Footies over, grandkids to bed.
    Apparently some polls tomorrow evening going by yesterday’s posts. Hopefully labor down to the low 20’s.
    Go Trump!

  5. Night David 🙂

    Cant go wrong with some Mitchell and Webb

    Alabama, im the leftie your parents warned you about… im a cold blooded commie, souless and godless 😉

  6. Heh, it’s the last lines of that skit that get me the most.

    “Whoops. A man with access to nuclear weapons really should never get a bit fighty.”
    “You tit. We might as well get shitfaced now.”

  7. Krejcikova has a 6-inch height advantage over Paolini giving her a service edge. The former won the 1st set 6-2. This could be a
    quick final. They’ve only met once before: the qualifying rounds at the AO in 2018, where Krejcikova won 6-2, 6-1.

  8. I spoke too soon, Paolini winning the 2nd 6-2. Krejcikova played too guardedly & paid the price. She seems to have a temperament similar to fellow Czech Jana Novotna, who won the title in ’98 and died of cancer in ’78 aged 49. Viva l’Italia!

  9. Taylormade:

    Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 12:23 am

    [‘We are off to 3 Mavis..’]

    I hope you’re enjoying it as much as me. Tomorrow night should be a cracker.

  10. Great comeback by Paolini, but Krejcikova lifts the trophy 6-2, 2-6, 6-4. What a night – rugby & tennis. And now the men’s doubles final featuring two Aussies, Purcell & Thompson -v-Heliovaara (FIN) & Patten (GBR). I hope it doesn’t go to 5 sets.

  11. Mavissays:
    Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 12:29 am
    Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 12:23
    I hope you’re enjoying it as much as me. Tomorrow night should be a cracker.
    Nice to watch with no grunting. Which put me off Womens tennis for years.
    The Czech was the better player and deserved the win, but she did get a bit nervy closing it out.

  12. The turning point in the match was at 3 all & ad out when Paolini challenged a call that was clearly in. She then served her only double fault (I think) of the match. I think she’ll rue the day she questioned that call but that’s tennis.

  13. Taylormade:

    Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 1:14 am

    [‘Nice to watch with no grunting. Which put me off Womens tennis for years.
    The Czech was the better player and deserved the win, but she did get a bit nervy closing it out’]

    The worst of which was Maria Sharapova & Victoria Azarenka. Yep. Krejcikova deserved to win it.

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