Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: April to June (open thread)

Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns record Labor sloping downwards in four states while recovering in a fifth. Also: the aftermath of Fatima Payman’s resignation from the ALP.

The Australian today publishes Newspoll’s quarterly state and demographic breakdowns, the latter encompassing gender, age, education, income, working status, language, religion and housing tenure. This encompasses four Newspoll surveys conducted from mid-April to late June, with a combined sample of 4957, breaking down to 1567 for New South Wales down to 368 for South Australia.

The results show Labor deteriorating by a point on two-party preferred in four of the five mainland states, with the Coalition leading for the first time this term in New South Wales, by 51-49; increasing its lead in Queensland to 54-46; and continuing to trail in Victoria, by 54-46, and South Australia, by 53-47. Conversely, the volatile small sample result for Western Australia has Labor back in front by 52-48, after a 54-46 Labor lead in the last quarter of 2023 became a Coalition lead of 51-49 in January-to-March.

A few other bits and pieces from the past fortnight:

• The resignation of Western Australian Senator Fatima Payman from the ALP this week was the party’s first defection since it came to office, reducing its numbers in the 76-seat chamber to 25, with the Coalition on 31 (down one since the election with the resignation of Victorian Senator David Van in June 2023), Greens 11 (down one since February 2023 with Victorian Senator Lidia Thorpe’s resignation), One Nation two, Jacqui Lambie Network one (down one since March with Tasmanian Senator Tammy Tyrell’s resignation), United Australia Party one and five independents (the four aforementioned plus ACT Senator David Pocock).

Nine Newspapers reports an alliance of Muslim groups that has been in talks with Glenn Druery “plans to run candidates against half-a-dozen Labor MPs in the lower house and in the Senate”. Alexi Demetriadi of The Australian reports target seats include Tony Burke’s seat of Watson, Jason Clare’s seat of Blaxland, and Wills in Lalor in Melbourne. The groups in question include The Muslim Vote, modelled on a similar enterprise in the UK that contributed to the loss of four Labour seats to independents yesterday in areas with large Muslim populations. The BBC reporting Labour’s vote share fell 23 points in seats where Muslims accounted for more than 20% of the population. Fatima Payman said she had met with the group last month, but said yesterday she did not intend to collaborate with them.

Sean Ford of the Burnie Advocate reports Burnie deputy mayor Giovanna Simpson has nominated for Liberal preselection in Braddon, which will be vacated after incumbent Gavin Pearce announced his retirement a fortnight ago. Simpson ran in Braddon at the state election and polled 2.6%, the highest out of the non-incumbent candidates on the Liberal ticket.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,113 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: April to June (open thread)”

Comments Page 1 of 43
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  1. WOW! Oakeshott Country might be right!

    Joe Biden’s doctor met with a leading Parkinson’s disease specialist at the White House earlier this year, it has emerged, amid ongoing questions about the US President’s health.

    Dr Kevin O’Connor, Biden’s physician, met with Dr Kevin Cannard, a top neurologist, on January 17 and Cannard has visited the White House a further seven times in the last year.

    Cannard, a “movement disorders specialist”, works at the Walter Reed Medical Centre, a military hospital in Maryland where Biden receives his checkups.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/bidens-doctor-met-with-parkinsons-disease-specialist-at-the-white-house-20240708-p5jrs3.html

  2. I refer people to the separate post on the French runoff elections, but it is fair to draw 2 conclusions:

    1. The Le Pen Right Wing National Rally populists have had their pants pulled down.
    2. The opinion polls showing Rally winning, or getting close to majority, were crap.


    For those catching up now, here’s what you need to know:

    Despite opinion polls during the campaign predicting the far right will win the most seats, the left-green New Popular Front is in the lead in the French legislative election, according to projections.

    Emmanuel Macron’s allies are in second place. The prime minister, Gabriel Attal, who is a Macron ally, said he will offer his resignation.

    The far right National Rally and its allies are behind in third place, the projections show.

    France’s national assembly has 577 seats, with 289 seats needed for an absolute majority.

    Ipsos’ projection is now putting the New Popular Front at 171-187 seats, Macron’s allies at 152-163 seats and the National Rally and its allies at 134-152 seats.

    Ifop is projecting that the New Popular Front has 188-199 seats, Macron’s allies 164-169 seats and the National Rally and its allies 135-143.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/jul/07/french-election-2024-results-latest-france-news-marine-le-pen-national-rally-emmanuel-macron

  3. with the Coalition leading for the first time this term in New South Wales, by 51-49; increasing its lead in Queensland to 54-46; and continuing to trail in Victoria, by 54-46, and South Australia, by 53-47. Conversely, the volatile small sample result for Western Australia has Labor back in front by 52-48
    ——————————-
    On the quarterly break downs
    No surprise QLD is the only state for the federal Lib/nats with a reasonable 2pp

    At this stage It does not look like anything else but a Labor 2nd term majority

  4. c@t, I would suspect that the New York Post was topped off about the neurologist’s name bring in the White House visitor logs. Someone in the West Wing has decided it’s time to make a new start.

    Well done to OC if this turns out to be right.

  5. Not so much about the French results as the system.

    What’s the thinking about having FPTP runoff in two rounds? Isn’t that simply a erstatz preferential system?

    Is the purpose to get around compulsory voting, but give voters a way to handbrake runaway winners?

  6. meher baba @ #NaN Monday, July 8th, 2024 – 6:38 am

    c@t, I would suspect that the New York Post was tipped off about the neurologist’s name bring in the White House visitor logs. Someone in the West Wing has decided it’s time to make a new start.

    Yes, it’s probably the correct conclusion to say that Miranda Devine and her mob at the New York Post aren’t great investigative journalists. 😉

  7. Lynchpin: “MB being behind in NSW is very relevant.”
    ——————————————————————————–
    Well, I would have thought so, given that the Coalition currently only holds 16 out of 47 seats in the state.

    Obviously the situation is made more complex by the strength of the Teals in NSW. I would imagine that, purely on 2pp, the Libs would have a significant lead in most of the Teal areas (although I’m not so sure about Wentworth any more). But being ahead on 2pp in any seat is no use to the Libs if the end result is a Teal being elected.

    But Labor will need to address the situation in NSW. High housing prices fuelled by high migration rates is one major factor. And I suspect the advent of a de facto Islamic party won’t help things either. Not because it will draw votes away from Labor: I would expect most of them to come back as preferences. But because it might unsettle other voters in the electorates in which it runs. And frightened voters tend to shift to the right.

    Labor is extremely fortunate that housing prices in Melbourne are rather flat. Victoria looks set to remain a Labor stronghold for another Federal term. That should be enough to ensure the party can hang on as a minority government.

  8. Lars Von Trier says:
    Monday, July 8, 2024 at 7:11 am
    Gilmore , Bennelong would be two seats that would be in play on that 51-49
    —————————————————————
    Depends on the federal liberal party candidates , if its the same as 2022
    Andrew Constance in Gilmore
    Simon Kennedy in Bennelong

    Labor will likely retain

  9. All the Left have achieved in France is to delay the inevitable. They now have a legislative rabble and very little is going to be achieved in the near term.

    Only a matter of time before Le Pen becomes President in 2027 and the National Front win a thumping majority in Parliament.

  10. A majority Government of any flavour sure looks unlikely on those poll numbers but I don’t see a 12 seats net gain for the Coalition v Labor to get in a position to attempt a minority government with non Green cross bench support. 56 Coalition seats pre election, 68 if they strip 12 seats off Labor, and then 8 cross benchers of 16 to form government- a cross bench that currently includes 4 Greens, 6 Teals and Andrew Wilkie. Show me a 16 seat Net gain for 72 seats and they might have a chance IF they don’t lose any of the 56 they have right now to Independents or Labor. Eg Sturt Wallan Bradfeild Cowper Nicholls Bennelong . Na, can’t see it.

  11. c@t: “Yes, it’s probably the correct conclusion to say that Miranda Devine and her mob at the New York Post aren’t great investigative journalists. ”
    ——————————————————————————–
    Yes indeed.

    But it’s a wonderful newspaper.

    Nobody will ever beat its all-time classic headline “Headless corpse found in topless bar.”

  12. The pollsters generally stated LePen was going to win in France.

    How did that work out…….

    Polls schmolls…..

  13. Federal Lib/nats combined primary vote 36% is not going to do much better than the 2022 federal election result of 58 seats
    Current they hold 55 seats

  14. Dutton is betting the farm that he wins enough seats off Labor in non-core urban electorates. It may be a two term strategy. He himself said that there is no chance the Teals will support a Coalition minority government. That leaves only Katter, Dai Le, and maybe Centre Alliance (unlikely as Labor actually won the 2pp in Mayo). The Coalition therefore need 72-73 seats minimum to have a 50% chance of winning government. Of course the Teals could wring enough concessions to be persuaded the other way – as Dutton would sell his own mother to sit on the throne.

  15. Lib/nats combined primary vote at State elections 36% have been on par with the federal lib/nats
    Tasmania
    If the liberal party primary vote is 36%

    They will not win a seat in tasmania

  16. Guess it’s how you want to read it Scotty. Cheers. Anyway it’s clear the Coalition need to get to 72 net – can’t see it. Two term strategy coming up. Getting the seat back from Gee will help but not enough.

  17. Look, there was an article on the weekend about Paul Erikson and Labor and the contribution they made to UK Labour winning their election, so I wouldn’t be jumping to conclusions about Labor and the result of the next election now. Just sayin’.

  18. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Here’s Simon Benson’s take on the state-by-state review of Newspolls.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-coalition-ahead-of-labor-in-nsw-and-queensland/news-story/5c1ee5c5b0d10703f9f36cf883a25fd3?amp=
    Dutton has told his troops to prepare for an early election. James Massola wonders if they up to it.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-has-told-his-troops-to-prepare-for-an-early-election-are-they-up-to-it-20240527-p5jh05.html
    According to Sean Kelly, Payman saga shows Labor can’t have its caucus, and eat it too.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/payman-saga-shows-labor-can-t-have-its-caucus-and-eat-it-too-20240705-p5jrhw.html
    Some say Labor’s caucus discipline is outdated in modern, multicultural Australia. In reality, it is more vital when individualism has infected the party of late, posits Nick Dyrenfurth. He says Labor’s pledge is a bulwark against identity politics.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/payman-defection-a-collective-failure-but-alp-pledge-is-bulwark-against-identity-politics-20240702-p5jqd9
    The Australian Labor Party’s solidarity pledge is being widely sledged in the wake of Western Australian Senator Fatima Payman’s resignation from caucus. But it’s worth stepping back and reconsidering this core element of Labor’s culture and history against contemporary culture and practices, says Chris Wallace aho lays it all out for us.
    https://theconversation.com/all-commit-and-no-disagree-the-real-reason-why-labors-solidarity-pledge-is-not-working-234091
    Labor has a serious primary vote issue. Not that the Coalition doesn’t either. But falling over the line into government in 2022 has not solved a longer-term problem for Labor that is becoming ever more apparent, if not worse. This leads to one inescapable and obvious conclusion. Its reliance on left-wing preferences to form future governments is becoming ever more profound, writes Simon Benson.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/labor-bleeds-younger-voters-to-greens-and-loses-middle-australia/news-story/ff04dfb978c91ac7d3458fb899b7e9a6?amp=
    Ross Gittins pushes for significant tax reforms but recognises there are no easy answers.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/yes-we-need-tax-reform-but-it-offers-no-easy-answers-20240704-p5jr9g.html
    The British general election has underlined the dangers now facing Australia’s political and social cohesion declares the AFR;s editorial which says the British general election has underlined the dangers now facing Australia’s political and social cohesion.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/reject-injecting-political-islam-into-australia-20240702-p5jqd5
    An insurgent campaign by Bill Shorten to repair the National Disability Insurance Scheme has featured Pauline Hanson in a federal minister’s office and the second-ever reference to sex toys in the House of Representatives. Shane Wright tells us that a two-month delay to new laws governing the NDIS stands to cost taxpayers at least $1 billion, with Shorten using his electoral experience to target the Coalition with methods more commonly deployed by an opposition trying to hammer a government.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/sex-toys-pauline-hanson-shorten-goes-rogue-with-insurgent-campaign-20240705-p5jrcz.html
    The RBA governor faces one of the hardest calls any central banker has ever had to make. The chances of getting it wrong are higher than ever, and so are the costs, explains Johathan Shapiro.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/the-competing-forces-that-will-decide-michele-bullock-s-next-move-20240703-p5jqxu
    The Federal Court has convened a special panel of judges to tackle a wave of constitutional challenges, with the potential for more uncertainty next month as the High Court prepares to deliver findings in a new case in the wake of the landmark NZYQ decision.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/federal-court-convenes-crisis-panel-to-tackle-nzyq-case-wave/news-story/9f130bce275658cafda31f193e48bd84
    Two new urgent care clinics will open in Sydney’s inner south next week in a bid to ease increasing pressure on the city’s emergency departments as the number of new influenza cases continues to rise rapidly. Alexandra Smith reports that the latest NSW Health respiratory report, for the week ending June 29, reveals a 35 per cent increase in influenza cases in one week, with the bulk in young people aged under 16.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/extra-urgent-care-clinics-to-open-as-flu-sweeps-sydney-20240707-p5jrp2.html
    The $2.3 billion EnergyConnect project, a critical high voltage line connecting renewable projects in South Australia to the national power grid, has been hit by cost blowouts, delays and payment defaults, report Jenny Wiggins and Angela Macdonald-Smith.
    https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/2-3b-energy-project-faces-cost-blowouts-20240705-p5jrct
    Without a massive grid upgrade, the Coalition’s nuclear plan faces a high-voltage hurdle, explains Asma Asiz.
    https://theconversation.com/without-a-massive-grid-upgrade-the-coalitions-nuclear-plan-faces-a-high-voltage-hurdle-233458
    The threshold for involuntary bankruptcy will rise to $20,000 and bankrupts will have their official records cleared after seven years, under an overhaul of personal insolvency laws being unveiled on Monday. Ronald Mizen reports that the Albanese government will also extend the time frame for responding to a bankruptcy notice from 21 days to 28 days and will scrap debt agreements as “an act of bankruptcy” under the legislation.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/labor-reveals-personal-bankruptcy-overhaul-20240707-p5jroa
    A Herald investigation has found sexual harassment of female staff is rife, but is often buried or ignored within NSW Corrective Services, the arm of the state government’s Department of Communities and Justice that’s responsible for running prisons. What a shocking workplace described by Jordan Baker!
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/do-you-like-this-position-the-workplace-rife-with-shocking-sexual-harassment-20240703-p5jqq7.html
    Nobody said it would be easy. Vapes and e-cigarettes have hit cities the world over like an unstoppable avalanche, states the SMH editorial which says vape reforms have a long way to go.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/vape-reforms-have-a-long-way-to-go-20240707-p5jro2.html
    The strategic and tactical geniuses inside the prime minister’s office and the man they serve may take time to appreciate how comprehensively they have mismanaged popular discontent about Labor’s passive support for Israel during the war against the Palestinians of the past eight months. Instead, they are deluding themselves about being politically outplayed by a novice Labor senator, who, allegedly, always had it in mind to betray the Labor Party, says Jack Waterford.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8685982/senator-fatima-payman-symbol-of-australian-discontent-with-labor-government/?cs=14258
    Mark Kenny writes, “Farage’s victim-laden appeal will be aided by big flaws in Britain’s electoral system which is now edging close to untenable. Like the crisis now engulfing US politics, these events serve as a reminder of Australia’s vastly superior democratic machinery – compulsory preferential voting run by an independent federal electoral commission. American democracy, too, is in a parlous state. An infirm Joe Biden can’t be replaced even by his party despite critical failings and the electoral machinery is a farrago of dodgy state systems designed to achieve voter suppression and fuel partisan suspicions.”
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8687192/right-wing-populism-is-on-the-rise-so-what-does-the-uk-election-tell-us/?cs=14329
    “News Corporation is a reflection of my thinking, my character, and my values,” said Rupert Murdoch. Alan MacLeod investigates the media baron’s financial and political ties to the Israel war lobby and finds it’s number one propagandist.
    https://michaelwest.com.au/propagandist-rupert-murdoch-news-corporation-and-the-israel-war-machine/
    “News Corp is ailing. How long will the Murdochs prop it up?”, wonders Christopher Warren who says job cuts continue across the empire as the business model dies a slow death.
    https://johnmenadue.com/news-corp-is-ailing-how-long-will-the-murdochs-prop-it-up/
    “Keir Starmer was once my apprentice – and this is how I think he might fare as prime minister”, explains Goffrey Robertson.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jul/07/keir-starmer-prime-minister-geoffrey-robertson
    George Brandis writes that the ditching of Boris Johnson sowed the seeds of the shambolic Tory defeat.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/ditching-boris-sowed-seeds-of-shambolic-tory-defeat-20240705-p5jrhv.html
    If the Conservative Party doesn’t come to an understanding with Reform there is a real chance Reform could replace it as the main party of the right at the next election, says Simon Fetter who explains why things could get even worse for the UK conservatives.
    https://www.afr.com/world/europe/why-things-could-get-even-worse-for-the-tories-20240702-p5jqd7
    Travelling round Britain, I found it at a crossroads between fury and hope. Which way will Labour take us, wonders Rob Harris.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jul/07/britain-hope-labour-voters-future
    In a way, the UK election highlights what a weird and terrible spot America finds itself in. Labour won a massive 290-seat majority in the UK after a campaign based on the one-word title of its manifesto: “Change”. But there won’t be much change and beneath the surface, it wasn’t much of a win. By contrast the US stands at a T-intersection, looking right and left: The paths on offer this November go in opposite directions; the stakes couldn’t be higher, explains Alan Kohler. He says thatiIn November America might be choosing between a 78-year-old criminal and liar who will take America another step closer to The Handmaid’s Tale, and a young(ish) woman who would take it in exactly the opposite direction.
    https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2024/07/08/alan-kohler-uk-us-elections
    Of the UK economy’s two possible endings, the happy one is more likely, suggests Larry Elliott.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/jul/07/uk-economy-two-possible-endings
    French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said he will hand his resignation to President Emmanuel Macron following a shock result where a coalition of the left quickly banded together to beat a surging far right in legislative elections. The left coalition won the most seats in the French parliament but not a majority, according to polling projections. The result is a stunning outcome that threatens to plunge the country into political and economic turmoil.
    https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/shock-result-as-left-leads-french-election-far-right-third-20240708-p5jrse.html
    France no longer resembles a divided but tolerant family. It is catastrophically fractured, describes Andrew Hussey.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jul/07/france-elections-far-right
    While the winner was a surprise, the result is as expected: a hung parliament of three opposing blocs with hugely different platforms and no tradition of working together – and, under the terms of France’s constitution, no new elections for a year. So, with Macron having promised not to step down until presidential elections in 2027, what’s likely to happen next? Jon Henley looks at the options.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/07/frances-progressives-keep-out-the-far-right-but-what-could-happen-next
    Hmm. Joe Biden’s doctor met with a leading Parkinson’s disease specialist at the White House earlier this year, it has emerged, amid ongoing questions about the US President’s health. Dr Kevin O’Connor, Biden’s physician, met with Dr Kevin Cannard, a top neurologist, on January 17 and Cannard has visited the White House a further seven times in the last year.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/bidens-doctor-met-with-parkinsons-disease-specialist-at-the-white-house-20240708-p5jrs3.html
    Yesterday, South Carolina senator Lindsey Graham added his voice to a chorus calling for cognitive and physical evaluations for Joe Biden – but also called for the same for Donald Trump and others. The Republican lawmaker recommended such tests for all future presidential nominees as well as those who may take over from a president or a nominee.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/07/lindsey-graham-presidential-nominee-evaluations
    Police believe a father set fire to his Sydney home with his family inside – dragging his own children back into the inferno while fighting off neighbours and rescuers – in a horrific “domestic homicide” that claimed three young lives. One of the surviving children allegedly told rescuers “Dad tried to kill us” and described fighting to break free of their father’s grip to save their siblings from the flames. This disgusting effort earns the man nomination for “Arsehole of the Week”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/three-children-dead-in-sydney-house-fire-man-in-custody-20240707-p5jrmr.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe

    Megan Herbert

    Alan Moir

    Mark David




    Jim Pavlidis

    Peter Broelman


    Simon Letch

    Mark Knight

    Leak

    From the US













  19. out of sorts says:
    Monday, July 8, 2024 at 7:39 am
    Scott, wrong about Tasmania. We have a Braddon up our sleeve.
    ——————————
    Yes correct , didn’t realise it was that safe for the liberal party

  20. The polls are closed in France and the first projections have been published.
    France’s national assembly has 577 seats, with 289 seats needed for an absolute majority.
    Here is the first projected seat distribution, from Ipsos. It shows the left in the lead, in a major shift compared to opinion polls during the campaign.
    Left-green New Popular Front: 172-192 seats
    Emmanuel Macron’s allies: 150-170 seats
    Far right National Rally and allies: 132-152 seats

    French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal says he will resign as exit polls showed the Left-wing New Popular Front taking the biggest share of the seats in the French National Assembly.
    Mr Attal is part of the Ensemble bloc, which is projected to have come in second place.
    With no party expected to take a majority, negotiations will now begin on forming the next government.
    Shock exit polls are projecting that Marine Le Pen’s party will come third, a major disappointment after leading in the first round of voting.

  21. You have to laugh at the mains stream media.

    Reform UK was going to become a real force. Big swing to the left. Reform get 5 seats
    La Pen was going to win big. Poof; France goes left.
    When faced with reality the press’s analysis is worth a pinch of the proverbial.

  22. Viva la France. Also it’s telling that Sean Kelly is proving reasonable feedback for Labor, and the afr and others are just supporting the same thing that got them in this mess in the first place… with friends like these;)

  23. Yep. Marine Le Pen and Putin thought they could outsmart the electorate by using a handsome young man as the face of their RW Authoritarian party. So radicale! Nope, so obvious that it was just lipstick on the Trojan Horse.

  24. Thanks BK Wow first time ever i think Simon Benson at the OZ nailed it in that article. In short, majority Government is looking more like a thing of the past in our democracy.

  25. Sohar, that will be great news on that front! Hopefully the Coalition gets alot done before the inevitable collapse (kidding not kidding, as a leftist I know that we are the single most infighty force known to man)

    There’s alot to be done by the left if they want to disarm the fascists for next time…

  26. Labor has a serious primary vote issue. Not that the Coalition doesn’t either. But falling over the line into government in 2022 has not solved a longer-term problem for Labor that is becoming ever more apparent, if not worse. This leads to one inescapable and obvious conclusion. Its reliance on left-wing preferences to form future governments is becoming ever more profound, writes Simon Benson.

    And the so-called ‘Liberal’ party has increasingly relied on the preferences of PHON, the UAP and Family First when they stand. So, your substantive point, Simon, about Labor is?

    To which I will add that, Labor at least ‘fell over the line into government’ in 2022. The Coalition went backwards at the rate of knots.

  27. President Biden’s struggles are opening the door for former President Trump to make a play in multiple blue states, a possibility that wasn’t fathomed just weeks ago as Democrats continue to grapple with fallout from Biden’s costly debate performance.
    Trump’s team and Republicans have been laser focused on once again tearing down the “blue wall” that Biden rebuilt for Democrats with his 2020 victory. However, the ongoing tumult surrounding Biden is giving Republicans a renewed sense of even more possibilities as they sense an opportunity in New Hampshire, Virginia and Minnesota.
    “These are solidly blue states that a Republican candidate — under normal circumstances — has no business competing in,” said Colin Reed, a longtime GOP strategist with experience working in the Granite State, which he says should be “especially challenging” for Trump in November.
    https://thehill.com/homenews/4756971-trump-gop-eye-blue-states-after-bidens-debate-disaster/

  28. Cat I saw Carbone is going to have a tilt at Federal politics. Do you know if he is as popular as the OZ says he is ?

  29. Unlike Albanese and Starmer getting their riding instructions from Murdoch, this is how to do it.

    Jeremy Corbyn@jeremycorbyn
    France’s extraordinary election results provide an urgent, valuable lesson.
    Don’t concede ground to those who sow division and fear. Build a bold Left movement that offers an alternative of inclusion and hope.
    That is how you defeat the far right.

  30. Good to see the right wing extremist frogs won’t be dominating French politics after all as the polls were suggesting earlier on.

  31. Fess

    I’ve got another busy week ahead. Daughter getting married on Saturday.

    In the meantime, my dad ended up in hospital with the double whammy of Covid and RSV. We had managed to keep covid at bay for him all this time. But it finally got him. He is recovering well, which has been a relief.

    I wont be posting much this week. But will continue to check in.

    I am definitely on a different page to most on this blog about the US political situation.

    The msm is focussing on Biden. But not on the actual elephants in the room

    The rogue SCOTUS latest decision re immunity and previous decision in women’s reproductive rights.
    Project 2025
    In Florida they have released more Epstein files implicating Trump. It is going to be consequential.
    Trumps genuine health problems.

    For all the consternation about Biden, it’s the republicans that are going down.

    As has often been said, the Dems have no spine and the rethugs have no morals.

  32. Sohar
    Jeremy Corbyn lost, don’t know if his view is worth much.

    France’s extraordinary election result occurred because the french left finally got over themselves and formed a coalition and campaigned under one banner. It happened within a week of Macron calling the election, with some arguing Macron called the election when he did to prevent the coalition happening.

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