Category: Federal Politics 2022-2025

As it usually does on Boxing Day, The Australian has published quarterly aggregates of Newspoll with state and demographic breakdowns, on this occasion casting an unusually wide net from its polling all the way back to July to early this month, reflecting the relative infrequency of its results over this time. The result is a combined survey of 5771 respondents that finds Labor leading 55-45 in New South Wales (a swing of about 3.5% to Labor compared with the election), 57-43 in Victoria (about 2%), 55-45 in Western Australia (no change) and 57-43 in South Australia (a 4.0% swing), while trailing 51-49 in Queensland a 3% swing).

Gender breakdowns show only a slight gap, with Labor leading 54-46 among men and 56-44 among women, with the Greens as usual stronger among women among men. Age cohort results trend from 65-35 to Labor for 18-to-34 to 54-46 to the Coalition among 65-plus, with the Greens respectively on 24% and 3%. Little variation is recorded according to education or income, but Labor are strongest among part-time workers and weakest among the retired, stronger among non-English speakers but well ahead either way, and 62-38 ahead among those identifying as of no religion but 53-47 behind among Christians. You can find all the relevant data, at least for voting intention, in the poll data feature on BludgerTrack.

One last federal voting intention poll for the year, it seems, contrary to the expectations expressed in my previous post. This one is a poll for the Financial Review from Freshwater Strategy, which has previous conducted New South Wales and Victorian state polls for the paper, the latter of which made a pretty good stab at the result three weeks out. This poll has Labor leading 54-46 on two-party preferred, with Labor at the Coalition at 37% apiece on the primary vote, the Greens on 12% and One Nation on 4%. Anthony Albanese records a favourable rating of 48% and unfavourable of 30%, while Peter Dutton is on 29% and 38%, with Albanese leading 55-29 on preferred prime minister.

The poll also finds support for an Indigenous voice at 50% with 26% opposed, with 63% saying they were aware of the proposed referendum compared with 37% for unaware. Forty per cent believed voters had sufficient information, with 50% saying they did not. Other findings related to the proposed cap on gas prices, which was supported by 56% and opposed by 20%. Sixty per cent expressed support for extracting and using more domestic gas with 22% opposed; given a head-to-head choice between a cap on prices and increasing the supply of energy, the result was an effective tie at 40% to 39%. An issue salience question produced the familiar finding that cost-of-living was far and away the greatest concern, with 71% choosing it when asked to offer three responses.

The poll was conducted online from Friday to Sunday with a sample of 1209.

Since we’re unlikely to see any polling of any significance for at least another month or so, this would seem an opportune moment to relaunch BludgerTrack, which just has enough data to work off to produce trend measures of voting intention and leaders’ ratings since the May federal election. Naturally it currently shows Labor well on top, with a two-party preferred lead of fully 57.0-43.0, with Anthony Albanese in a similarly commanding position on net approval and preferred prime minister. As before, it also comes with tabular displays of all published voting intention data both nationally and for such breakdowns as have been provided, which at this stage isn’t much. The latter issue means we’re a long way off from being able to produce state-level breakdowns, which to this stage have really only been produced by Resolve Strategic, and then only for the three biggest states. The Australian usually provides aggregated breakdowns of Newspoll in the days following Christmas, but Newspoll results have been thin enough on the ground lately that there seems no guarantee of that.

Essential Research seems to have a new routine of discreetly slipping out federal voting intention numbers without trumpeting them in their weekly report. Labor is on 35% (up two), the Coalition 30% (down one), Greens 13% (steady), others 17% (steady) with 5% undecided (down one). The “2PP+” two-party measure has Labor steady on 51%, the Coalition up one to 44% and undecided down one to 5%. The weekly report has the monthly personal ratings for Anthony Albanese, which have him unchanged at 60% approval and 27%.

A forced response question on a constitutionally enshrined Indigenous voice to parliament runs 63-37 in favour, in from 65-35 in August. Respondents were presented with four questions querying their understanding of the issue, which found 25% holding the incorrect view that the proposed body would be able to block parliamentary legislation, with 26% believing otherwise and 50% not sure. Forty per cent expected 2023 would be a better year for Australia, compared with 24% for worse and 25% for no difference. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1042.

Roy Morgan’s weekly video informs us that their latest federal two-party numbers have Labor’s lead out from 54.5-45.5 to 56.5-43.5.

The latest Resolve Strategic poll for the Age/Herald has Labor on 42% (up three since the poll conducted after the budget in late October), the Coalition on 30% (down two), the Greens on 11% (down two), One Nation on 4% (steady), the United Australia Party on 2% (up one) and independents on 8% (steady). No two-party preferred is provided, but based on preference flows in May this would have Labor’s lead approaching 60-40. The limited state breakdowns provided have it at about 57-43 in New South Wales, 62-38 in Victoria and 56-44 in Queensland.

Anthony Albanese records an approval rating of 60% (up three) with disapproval at 24% (down four), while Peter Dutton is respectively at 28% (down one) and 43% (up two). Albanese leads Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister 54-19, little changed from 53-19 last time. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1611. Further results on the poll concerning the parties’ capacity to handle various issues and other aspects of their performance are featured on the Age/Herald’s Resolve Political Monitor page.

Also out this week is the Australian National University’s Australian Election Study survey, both as a summary report and a full dataset for those with the wherewithal to use it. Among many other things, the survey found that Anthony Albanese scored better when rated on a scale from one to ten than any party leader since Kevin Rudd in 2007, whereas Scott Morrison was “the least popular major party leader in the history of the AES”, which goes back to 1987. A decline in partisan attachment going back to 2010 continued apace, with only 30% and 28% now rating themselves as Coalition and Labor partisans respectively. Supporters of the teal independents were largely “tactical Labor and Greens voters”, with only 18% of their voters having defected from the Liberals. The survey also provides further evidence for what already well understood about the Coalition’s problems with women and younger voters.

Note also the post below from Adrian Beaumont about today’s US Senate run-off election in the state of Georgia, and the ongoing coverage of the Victorian election count, where Labor seems set to match its 2018 performance in terms of lower house seats.

The Australian reports what sounds like it will be the last Newspoll for the year has come in with the two-party preferred unchanged at 55-45 in favour of Labor 39% (up one), Coalition 35% (steady), Greens 11% (steady), One Nation 6% and United Australia Party 1%. Anthony Albanese’s approval rating is up three to a new high of 62% and down four on disapproval to 29%, and his lead over Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister has blown out from 54-27 to 59-24. Peter Dutton is respectively down three to 36% and one to 45%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1508.

In further federal polling news, I missed that Essential Research has snuck out its first set of voting intention numbers since the election, which it will hopefully now resume reporting regularly. Without excluding a 6% undecided component, this showed primary votes of Labor 33%, Coalition 31%, Greens 13% and others 6%, with the “2PP+” measure at Labor 51%, Coalition 43% and undecided 6%. The poll was conducted November 23 to 29 from a sample of 1042.

Note also the post immediately below from Adrian Beaumont on the US Senate run-off election for Georgia, which will unfold over the coming week.

The latest Essential Research survey has its monthly favourability trend ratings for Anthony Albanese which, as distinct from its straightforward approval/disapproval question, asks respondents to rate his performance on a scale of one to ten. This finds 46% giving him from seven to ten, up one on a month ago; 26% from four to six, down two; and 23% from zero to three, up three. On the question of national direction, 44% rate that Australia is on the right track, down two on a month ago and four on two months ago, compared with 36% for the wrong track, up two on a month ago and seven on two months ago.

Other questions relate to Australia’s relationship with China, which 46% expect to be better under the Labor government compared with only 9% for worse. Asked whether they wanted the government to look for opportunities to rebuild relations with China, take a more confrontational approach or maintain the current course, 54% opted for the first (up two from May), 13% the second (down six) and 12% the third (steady). Forty-four per cent think the AUKUS submarine partnership will make Australia more secure compared with 16% for less secure and 39% for about the same.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1042. Note that progressively updated coverage of the Victorian election count continues on the post below.

I have nothing much to offer in the way of new material for an open thread post, for reasons I hope you’ll understand. My standby on such occasions is the regularly updated tracking poll of Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings from US pollster Morning Consult, which currently has him at 56% approval and 31% disapproval. This leaves his approval about where it was mid-year, with his disapproval having climbed a few points.