Category: Federal Politics 2022-2025

Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 52, Coalition 42 (open thread)

Essential’s voting intention numbers still look rosy for Labor, but with troubling signs for them beneath the surface.

The latest fortnightly voting intention numbers from Essential Research, which include a 6% undecided component (up one on last time), show Labor recovering a primary vote lead by holding steady at 32% while the Coalition drops two to 30%, with the Greens also down two to 14% and One Nation up two to 7%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure is unchanged with Labor 52% and the Coalition on 42%, although the vagaries of rounding means undecided gains a point to 6%.

The report also features its month leader favourability ratings, which differ from its more conventional monthly leadership ratings in having respondents rate the leaders on a scale of zero to ten. This provides further evidence with a downturn for Anthony Albanese, whose positive rating (for ratings of between seven and ten) is down five to 36%, with neutral (four to six) up two to 32% and negative (zero to three) up three to 27%. Peter Dutton’s positive rating is up four to 27%, recovering from a three-point dip last time, with neutral down two to 32% and negative down one to 34%.

Perhaps relatedly, a monthly read of the national mood, in which respondents are asked if the country is on the right or wrong track, records a pronounced worsening in sentiment, with wrong track up nine on last month to 47% and right track down eight to 33%. This is comfortably the worst result shown on an accompanying chart going back to February 2022, which shows a surge of positive sentiment after the government came to power last May that has now worn off entirely.

A suite of questions on government action on economic issues find substantial majorities saying the government is not doing enough to relieve cost-of-living pressures (75%), ensuring affordable and secure rentals (69%) and ensuring a fair income tax system (48%). The government scores better, but not overwhelmingly positive, on a corresponding set of questions about environmental issues. A head-to-head question on whether parliament works better with minor parties and independents holding the balance of power produced a statistical tie of 51% no and 49% for yes.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1148.

Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor (open thread)

Newspoll finds no leading yes on the Indigenous Voice for the first time, along with softer results for Labor and Anthony Albanese.

The latest Newspoll from The Australian gives Labor a two-party lead of 54-46, in from 55-45 three weeks ago. This equals a result in March as the weakest Newspoll for Labor out of the eleven published since the Albanese government came to power, which have ranged from 54-46 to 57-43. On the primary vote, Labor is steady at 38%, the Coalition up one to 35%, the Greens down one to 11% and One Nation steady at 6%.

Anthony Albanese records his softest personal ratings since the election, down three on approval to 52% and up five on disapproval to 42%. We must wait upon the equivalent results for Peter Dutton, which are not featured in the report (UPDATE: Up two on approval to 38%, down one on disapproval to 49%), and also the preferred prime minister results, which we are told are the tightest since the election, Albanese’s previous narrowest lead having been 54-28 in late April (UPDATE: In from 55-28 to 52-32).

Perhaps most sobering for the government is a finding that 47% intend to vote no in the Indigenous Voice referendum, up four on three weeks ago, eclipsing yes on 43%, down three. This comes from an expanded sample of 2303, together with a longer than usual field work period from June 16 to 24, which has been further juiced with the results of the previous poll to provide state breakdowns with substantial sample sizes and a sample of 3852 overall. Yes has the lead only in Victoria, by 48-41, and New South Wales, by 46-41. No leads by 54-40 in Queensland, 52-39 in Western Australia, 46-45 in South Australia and 48-43 in Tasmania.

By-election latest: Fadden, Rockingham, Warrandyte

Candidates confirmed and ballot papers drawn for Fadden and Rockingham, and Liberal preselection determined for Warrandyte.

Candidates were announced and ballot paper orders drawn for two of the three looming by-elections, an occasion I have marked with guides to the two in question — the federal by-election for Fadden on July 15, and the Western Australian state by-election for Rockingham on July 29. As well as providing a dedicated comments thread for discussion of the by-election, this post offers a summary of the most recent developments from all three, the most notable of which are for the Victorian state by-election for Warrandyte, for which a date is yet to be determined:

• A Liberal preselection held on Sunday to choose a candidate for the Warrandyte state by-election in Victoria was won by Nicole Ta-Ei Werner, who ran unsuccessfully for the party in Box Hill at the November state election. Werner is the daughter of Malaysian Chinese migrants and a former youth pastor with Pentecostal church Planetshakers, who now works as the business development for Empower Australia, a food relief centre run by the church. She prevailed in the preselection vote amid a field of nine, which after progressive rounds winnowed the field down to Werner, Institute of Public Affairs director John Roskam, and 22-year-old law student Antonietta di Cosmo. Werner and Roskam were at this point tied for second, which was resolved with a special round of voting that determined the result for Werner. The majority of Roskam’s backers then fell in behind Werner, who defeated di Cosmo in the final round with 55 votes to 50 (with “some members leaving early”, according to The Age). Labor sources cited by The Age on Monday said Labor would decide if it would field a candidate by the end of the week, but I have yet to hear any further.

• Nine candidates have nominated for Rockingham, the Liberal candidate being Peter Hudson, a 21-year-old resources sector recruitment consultant who ran for the party in Brand at last year’s federal election, and was the only nominee for preselection. Also in the field is Rockingham deputy mayor Hayley Edwards, who was mentioned as a potential candidate for Labor but will instead run as an independent.

• With a crowded field of 13 candidates, Labor has had rather the better of the ballot paper draw in Fadden, their candidate Letitia Del Fabbro placed at the top while Cameron Caldwell of the Liberal National Party is second last.

Miscellany: Lowy Research foreign policy poll and much else (open thread)

The Lowy Institute’s annual survey on Australians’ attitude to the affairs of the world, an Indigenous Voice poll from WA, the David Van wash-up, and the usual preselection news snippets.

In an otherwise thin week for polling, the annual survey on Australians’ attitudes to international issues by the Lowy Institute offers its usual panoply of insights, perhaps the most interesting of which is that concern about China and war over Taiwan, while high, is not actually more so than it was a year ago. Key points:

• An unchanged 64% rate “a military conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan” as a critical threat, behind “cyberattacks from other countries” on 68%, up four from last year. The critical threat rating from Russian foreign policy has eased from 68% to 57%. After a sharp deterioration between 2018 and 2022, there was a nine-point drop in those who saw China as more as a security threat and an eleven-point increase as more of an economic partner, now at 52% and 44% respectively. Sixty-one per cent expected China would have a more important and powerful role as world leader in a decade’s time, whereas 22% felt the same of the US, which 32% expected to become less powerful and important.

• Forty-nine per cent rate that AUKUS will make Australia more safe, down three on less year; 9% less safe, up two; and 23% make no difference, up one. Sixty-seven per cent favoured the acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines, down three, with opposition up three to 31%. However, 40% favoured a defence strategy that protected Australia close to home against 26% for one that deterred potential enemies far from Australia’s shores. Fifty-six per cent felt Australia should remain neutral in the event of military conflict between the US and China, up five on last year, while 42% felt Australia should support the US, down four.

• Fifty-seven per cent favoured allowing the United States to base military forces in Australia, down six on last year, with 42% opposed, up six. Corresponding figures for the United Kingdom were 67% and 32%. There was a nine-point drop among those rating the importance of the US alliance to Australian security as very important to 51%, but this was a reversion to the mean after a spike last year, with the fairly important rating up four to 31%. Seventy-three per cent felt the US was more respected in the world under Joe Biden against 24% for Donald Trump.

• The most trusted global powers were Japan, the United Kingdom and France, with combined results of “a great deal” and “somewhat” of 79% to 85%, which are approximately the reverse of the results for China and Russia. The United States’ rating is down four points on last year to 61%, putting it about equal with India and a little ahead of Indonesia, but still well above where it was under the Trump administration. A question on “Australia’s best friend in Asia” records India spiking from 7% last year to 16%, though Japan remains far ahead of the field on 44%.

• In response to a question on confidence in world leaders, the field was led by Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskky and New Zealand Prime Minister Chris Hipkins who each scored a combined 72% for a lot of confidence and some confidence, though one doubts that the latter’s name recognition is quite that high. Support for military aid to Ukraine was nonetheless down six points to 76% with opposition up eight to 24%, while support for sanctions on Russia was down two to 87% and opposition up three to 12%.

• Twenty-five per cent felt Anthony Albanese had done a very good job on foreign policy, 58% a reasonable job and 15% a poor job. The question was extended to other recent prime ministers, producing neutral ratings for Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard and net negative ratings for Malcolm Turnbull and, especially, Tony Abbott and Scott Morrison.

• Forty-seven per cent felt an Indigenous Voice would improve Australia’s reputation, 44% that it would make no difference, and 8% that it would damage it.

Two other poll results to relate:

• The West Australian had a Painted Dog Research poll on the Indigenous Voice on Saturday which found 57-43 of WA respondents in favour on a forced response basis, narrowing from 60-40 when the last such poll was conducted in March. The poll had a sample of 1050, with field work dates not specified.

• This week’s federal voting intention numbers from Roy Morgan have Labor’s lead out to 57-43, from 56-44 last week, with primary votes of Labor 36.5% (up one-and-a-half), Coalition 34% (up half) and Greens 13% (steady).

Other news that does not relate to the three looming by-elections, which I am holding back for a post on Friday, when candidates will be declared for the federal by-election in Fadden and the Western Australian state by-election in Rockingham:

• Victorian Senator David Van’s exile from the Liberal Party put the numbers in the chamber at Coalition 32, Labor 26, Greens 11, One Nation two, Jacqui Lambie Network two, United Australia Party one, and independents three. Greg Brown of The Australian reports Van “plans on remaining in parliament until his Senate term is up in 2025 and will consider contesting the next election as an independent”, and that he will not consider joining One Nation or the United Australia Party.

• Rachel Eddie of The Age reports that Russell Broadbent, 72-year-old veteran Liberal member for the West Gippsland seat of Monash, faces a preselection challenge from Mary Aldred, head of government relations for Asia Pacific at Fujitsu and daughter of the late Ken Aldred, member for various federal seats from 1975 to 1996. While her father was a figure of some controversy, Mary Aldred is reportedly “viewed as a moderate”, in common with Broadbent.

• Linda Silmalis of the Daily Telegraph reports Sutherland Shire mayor Carmelo Pesce is rated the front-runner to succeed Scott Morrison in Cook, with a general view that Morrison is likely to pull the plug later in the year.

• Katina Curtis of The West Australian argues school holidays and football finals mean the date for the referendum can be narrowed down to October 14, November 4 and November 25, with the former most likely as the November dates are complicated by that month’s APEC conference.

The airing of grievances

A review of the interim report from the electoral matters committee’s inquiry into the 2022 federal election, which recommends truth-in-advertising laws and caps to donations and spending in the teeth of opposition objections.

The federal parliament’s Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has released an interim report from its inquiry into the 2022 federal election, addressing terms of reference including political finance regulation and truth-in-advertising. We evidently still await what the committee has to say about “proportional representation of the states and territories in the Parliament in the context of the democratic principle of ‘one vote, one value’”, which appears to be code for increasing the size of parliament.

The committee’s 14 members include representatives of the main parties plus teal independent Kate Chaney, each motivated to bring particular concerns to the table. One common point of grievance is the nine-figure electoral spending of Clive Palmer, which the report recommends addressing through caps on donations and spending that extend to third parties and associated entities. However, the Coalition dissenting report rejects these recommendations as they stand, complaining of a failure to count union affiliation fees as donations and the potential for Labor to evade spending caps through a multiplicity of union campaigns.

The section proposing spending caps gives consideration to “campaigns with a corporate financial structure”, by way of suggesting measures to prevent Clive Palmer from continuing to conduct mass advertising through his company Mineralogy. Climate 200 argues that any spending cap should be higher for new entrants or independents, reflecting its feeling that caps in New South Wales and Victoria stymied crowd-funded independents’ efforts to make themselves known at the recent state elections. A submission from teal independent MP Monique Ryan further proposed exempting new candidates from donation caps up to a certain fundraising threshold.

The report revives Labor’s position that the threshold for public disclosure of political donations should be reduced from its current level of around $15,000, to which it was hiked from $1500 when the Howard government secured a Senate majority, to $1000, which Labor never managed to give effect to when it was last in government. It further recommends parties should be required to disclose donations in “real time”, where currently the public is none the wiser as to how campaigns are funded (to the extent the disclosure threshold allows it at all) until a year after the event. However, it doesn’t say exactly how real – the Coalition’s dissenting report says within a month should be enough, and that $8000 should suffice for a disclosure threshold.

One of the report’s showpiece recommendations is for truth-in-advertising legislation “based on the principles currently in place in South Australia”. In that state’s case, the Electoral Commissioner takes advice on complaints from the Crown Solicitor’s Office and can request removal or retraction of offending items, issue fines, and – in the event of non-compliance – declare an election void if it is felt on the balance of probabilities that the result was affected. The report favours the AEC to run the scheme over ACMA and the ACCC, notwithstanding the AEC’s own reticence. The Electoral Commission of South Australia also noted that the system presents it with multiple challenges, which were exacerbated when the number of complaints shot from 38 at the 2018 election to 122 in 2022. The Liberals and Nationals are opposed, arguing Labor has no specific proposal or electoral mandate, and expressing concerns about freedom of speech and subjectivity of meaning.

A recommendation to juice up the AEC’s efforts to encourage enrolment and participation among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders is influenced by Labor’s feeling that it nearly lost its Northern Territory seat of Lingiari because the Morrison government strategically starved it of resources. The report notes shortages of interpreters and explanatory materials, deficiencies in the remote area mobile polling program and cuts at the AEC’s Darwin office, along with a claim the Indigenous Electoral Participation Program had been underfunded.

The Coalition’s dissenting report registers its displeasure with the teal independent phenomenon (or what is “now known as the Teal Party”, the veracity of which I leave to others to judge) by calling for independents “conducting their activities in a manner consistent with a registered political party” to be subject to the obligations of one. It also calls for the pre-poll voting period to be further reduced from two weeks to one, having already been cut back from three weeks in the previous term with the concurrence of Labor and the Greens. Also recommended are higher barriers for nominating candidates, given the “potential for candidates to be utilised purely for preference distribution”, and the creation of an offence of “electoral violence or intimidation”.

Miscellany: seat entitlements, electoral reforms, by-elections latest and more (open thread)

Winners in losers in the carve-up of House of Reps seats between the states, Gerard Rennick’s Senate preselection under challenge, latest by-election developments, and more.

Recent electoral developments at the federal level:

• The population statistics that will be used next month to calculate state and territory House of Representation seat entitlements have been published, and as Antony Green reports, they establish that New South Wales and Victoria will each lose a seat, putting them at 46 and 38 respectively; Western Australia will gain one, putting it at 16; and the others will remain unchanged at Queensland 30, South Australia 10, Tasmania five, the ACT three and the Northern Territory two. The vagaries of rounding mean the total size of the House will be down one to 150. Redistributions will duly be required in three states – Antony Green has a further post looking at the specifics in Western Australia, where the new seat seems likely to be in the eastern suburbs of Perth.

• Matthew Killoran of the Courier-Mail reports a view that right-wing Liberal National Party Senator Gerard Rennick will “narrowly see off” challenges to his third position on the Queensland Senate ticket from Nelson Savanh, who works with strategic communications firm Michelson Alexander and appears to be an ideological moderate, and Stuart Fraser, director of a private investment fund.

• Jamie Walker of The Australian reports speculation that Pauline Hanson will shortly retire from politics, with her Senate vacancy to be filled by her chief-of-staff, James Ashby, who first came to public attention when he brought sexual harassment allegations against Peter Slipper, then the Speaker and Ashby’s boss, in 2012. Hanson spoke to The Australian of her frustration at being sidelined by a Labor government that prefers to negotiate with Jacqui Lambie and David Pocock to pass contested legislation through the Senate.

• The Guardian has launched an Indigenous Voice poll tracker. Meanwhile, academic Murray Goot has things to say about Newspoll’s recent result and The Australian’s presentation of it.

• Paul Sakkal of the Age/Herald reports the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters will shortly recommend donation and spending caps and bans on false information in political advertisements, which have the broad support of the government and the relevant minister, Special Minister of State Don Farrell. Labor’s new draft national platform says it will work towards reducing reliance on donations and move to an expanded public funding system, much of the impetus coming from Clive Palmer’s extravagant electoral spending. Donation caps are opposed by Climate 200 and the Australia Institute, which argue that donor-funded campaigns provide the only opportunity for new entrants to take on incumbents. Donation caps at state level of $6700 a year in New South Wales and $4000 in Victoria were seen as inhibiting teal independent efforts to replicate their successes at federal elections.

• This week’s federal voting intention numbers from Roy Morgan have Labor’s two-party lead out from 55.5-44.5 to 56-44, from primary votes of Labor 35%, Coalition 33.5% and Greens 13.0%.

State by-elections latest:

• The Victorian Liberals will choose their candidate for the Warrandyte by-election on Sunday. Rachel Baxendale of The Australian reports the outcome is “far from clear”, with 22-year-old law student Antonietta Di Cosmo di Cosmo reckoned as good a chance as any out of the field of nine candidates. Conservative allies of Deakin MP Michael Sukkar are reportedly split between former Institute of Public Affairs executive director John Roskam and former Pentecostal pastor Nicole Ta-Ei Werner, while the opposing factional claim is divided between KPMG director Sarah Overton, tech business founder Jason McClintock and former Matthew Guy staffer Jemma Townson. Meanwhile, The Age reports Labor MPs are pressing for the party to field a candidate. Confirmation of a date for the by-election is still a while off, with outgoing member Ryan Smith not to formally resign until July 7.

• In Western Australia, Josh Zimmerman of The West Australian reports Labor’s administrative committee has confirmed party staffer Magenta Marshall as its candidate to succeed Mark McGowan in Rockingham on July 29. Rather surprisingly, the Liberals have committed to field a candidate in a seat McGowan won in 2021 by 37.7%.

Polls: Resolve Strategic and Essential Research federal voting intention (open thread)

Two new polls find a slight dip in support for a still dominant government and its leader.

The two polls whose Indigenous Voice results were covered in the previous post have now come through with voting intention results:

• Resolve Strategic has Labor down two on the primary vote to 40%, the Coalition steady on 30%, the Greens steady on 12% and One Nation up one to 6%. No two-party preferred is provided, but I make this out to be a narrowing in Labor’s lead from 61-39 to 60-40, maintaining this series’ recent record as Labor’s strongest. Personal ratings show a softening for Anthony Albanese, down three on approval to 53% and up six on disapproval to 35%, while Peter Dutton is respectively steady on 28% and down one to 48%, with Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister in from 53-20 to 53-22. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1606. UPDATE: Further findings from the Resolve Strategic poll include 17% support for the government extending Philip Lowe’s term, against 52% for “choose someone else”. Eighty-two per cent expect further interest rate rises this year, with only 3% disagreeing; 67% expect inflation will get worse in the near future, with 9% disagreeing; 29% think higher rates are slowing inflation, with 30% disagreeing; 27% expect inflation to slow in the near future, with 40% disagreeing.

• Primary votes from Essential Research, which include a 5% undecided component, have Labor down two to 32%, the Coalition up one to 32%, the Greens up one to 16% and One Nation down one to 5%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor steady on 52% and the Coalition down one to 42%, with 5% undecided. Its questions on interest rates had respondents gauging the impact of six potential causes on a four-point scale, with combined responses of “a lot” or “a fair amount” coming in at 89% for inflation, 76% for pandemic-related supply chain disruptions, 75% for the federal government, 71% for Reserve Bank overreaction, 59% for the war in Ukraine and 45% for wage rises. Pessimism prevails, with 63% expecting more rate increases, 30% believing they are at their peak but will not come down for some time, with only 7% expecting them to fall soon. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1123.

Polls: Resolve Strategic on Indigenous Voice, Essential on issues (open thread)

Another bad poll result for the Indigenous Voice, but the government otherwise is seemingly maintaining its ascendancy.

The Age/Herald has a Resolve Strategic poll which finds no sign in the ongoing weakening of support for an Indigenous Voice, to the extent of being the first significant poll to find no in front, albeit by a 51-49 margin that places the difference inside the margin of error. This followed a question in which respondents were told of the referendum question wording and the fact of voting being compulsory. Minus the latter prompt, 42% were in favour, 40% opposed and 18% undecided.

State breakdowns suggest the proposal is also falling short on the other leg of the dual majority requirement, with majorities in favour in only three states: by 53-47 in New South Wales, 56-44 in Victoria and 57-43 from a tiny sample in Tasmania, with no leading 56-44 in Queensland, 51-49 in Western Australia and 52-48 in South Australia. The national results are from the pollster’s latest national survey, which reached 1606 respondents and was presumably conducted from Wednesday to Sunday, while the state results pad out the sample with findings from last month’s poll, which had yes leading 53-47. Voting intention numbers will presumably follow at some point in the next day or two.

In an emerging pattern, it’s a very different story from Essential Research, which according to a report in The Guardian finds 60-40 in favour on its forced response Indigenous Voice question, effectively unchanged on its 59-41 result a month ago. A separate report in The Guardian tells us Essential’s fortnightly poll also included a regular suite of questions on best party to handle various issues, which found Labor favoured to handle issues including cost of living, interest rates and government debt, together with its more traditional strengths of health and welfare, climate change and security of work.

Respondents were asked how much or how little they felt various factors were to blame for rising interest rates, but the results are hard to interpret without seeing the question wording and response structure. For this we must await the release of the full report later today – together with voting intention numbers, on which The Guardian’s report is silent, though they are presumably favourable to Labor given the “best party to handle” responses.

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