Category: New South Wales By-Elections

End of evening. Labor has comfortably won the Kiama by-election with what I’m projecting to be 59.2% of the two-party vote. This pushes Labor to 46 seats out of 93 in the Legislative Assembly, such that the government will now rely on the support of one independent rather than two. It will be noted that the two-party swing is nonetheless a seemingly healthy 10.8% in favour of the Liberals, but this is somewhat deceptive: far more ballots had Labor higher than Liberal at the 2023 election because much of the conservative vote had gone to Gareth Ward, and as with all voters in New South Wales, a good proportion of these would have given him a first preference and left it at that. It may be more instructive to compare the result with the result with Ward’s 8.7% margin as a Liberal on the same boundaries in 2019, such that this can be seen as a Labor swing of around 18% off that base.

8.57pm. The big Albion Park early voting centre is the first such to report, with 7771 formal votes, and it too records swings little different from the polling day votes.

8.27pm. There are now 2415 postal votes in the count, which have swung in an almost identical fashion to the polling day votes.

7.49pm. All but three out of 22 polling day booths are in on the primary vote, with the TCP counts starting to catch up. As yet there are no pre-poll booths in, but we will presumably see at least some of those later in the evening, and perhaps also some postals.

7.39pm. And now I’m calling it for Labor, with 15 booths in on the primary and three on two-candidate, the projected Liberal swing now down to 10.0%.

7.34pm. With 13 booths in on the primary vote and two on tw0-party, my system is now basing its projection on the actually observed preference flow so far, which is more favourable to Labor than my estimates. The swing is accordingly down 10.4%, and the Labor win probability up to 98.6% — the system will call it when it gets to 99%.

7.18pm. We’re now up to seven booths on the primary vote, and my projection of the two-party Liberal swing remains short of a required 19.7% at 13.8%. However, my system is applying a wide margin-of-error to this due to the absence of two-candidate results, getting Labor as far as a 78.9% win probability. If the two-candidate results confirm my preference estimates are broadly correct, it will probably start calling it for Labor.

7.14pm. A fourth booth, which was probably the Gerroa Neighbourhood Centre, moves the dial slightly to the Liberals, their vote there picking by a handy 22.5%. This pushes the two-party swing up from 12.0% to 13.8%, though that’s still well short of the 19.7% they need. It should be noted that this is based off my pre-determined preference estimates, there being still no two-candidate preferred results.

7.05pm. Three booths in now on the primary vote, and while I’m projecting a 12.0% two-party swing to the Liberals, they actually need more like 20% — the figure flatters them because much of their normal support base cast a one-only vote for Gareth Ward in 2023.

7.03pm. The first result in is 386 primary votes from Kiama High, and while the Liberal vote neatly doubles to 21.0%, the gain is less than what they would not from Gareth Ward’s vote from 2023. However, it looks like this was quite a weak booth for Ward, and my system is well short of calling it.

6pm. Polls have closed for the Kiama by-election, occasioned by the forced resignation of independent Gareth Ward, and generally considered a strong opportunity for Labor to get its representation up from 45 to 46 in a chamber of 93. There are a few small rural booths in this electorate, so we will presumably be seeing some sort of result well within the hour.

The New South Wales state by-election for the southern Illawarra seat of Kiama will be held on Saturday, presenting Chris Minns’ minority Labor government with what would seem a strong chance of improving its lower house representation to 46 seats out of 93. The seat is being vacated after Gareth Ward resigned on August 8 pending his expulsion over sexual abuse convictions recorded against him the previous month. Ward gained the seat for the Liberals at the 2011 election and held it as an independent after 2021, when he resigned from the ministry and the party after identifying himself as the subject of an inquiry of the child abuse and sex crimes squad.

Despite having changes hanging over him at the March 2023 election, Ward managed to retain the seat with a 0.7% margin over Labor, the Liberal candidate finishing a distant third. Importantly for the matter at hand, Labor recorded an emphatic win on the two-party preferred vote over the Liberals by a margin of 19.7%, with the bulk of Ward’s primary vote exhausting. The Liberals have not shied from the contest, despite early suggestions it might be better left to the Nationals, who made up for what they lacked in any sort of historic presence in the region in not being associated with Ward. However, the Nationals ultimately ruled themselves out, and the seat will be contested for the Liberals by former Shoalhaven councillor Serena Copley. Labor’s candidate is Katelin McInerney, who fell narrowly short of winning the seat in 2023.

I have belatedly published a guide to the by-election; live results will as usual unfold on the site from the usual time on Saturday evening.

The New South Wales government has acted quickly to bring on a by-election in Gareth Ward’s South Coast region seat of Kiama, with the Speaker yesterday announcing a polling date of September 13. This follows Ward’s conviction a fortnight ago on sexual assault charges and resignation from parliament on Friday, forestalling an imminent motion for his expulsion. Ward held the seat as a Liberal from 2011 to 2021, when he resigned from the party and the ministry amid a police investigation that resulted in him being committed to trial in March 2022. Despite being suspended from parliament from this point, Ward retained his seat as an independent at the March 2023 election with a 0.8% margin over Labor, with the Liberals running a distant third.

The by-election will be contested by both major parties, with Labor sensing an opportunity to improve on its current 45 seats out of 93 and the Liberals confirming on Monday that they would take the field. It comes at a difficult time for the Liberals, whose standing in the polls looks to have deteriorated in the wake of the federal election, with the Sydney Morning Herald reporting suggestions Mark Speakman’s leadership is under threat. Local news website The Bugle suggests Labor is likely to again endorse Katelin McInerney, a former Illawarra Mercury journalist and official with the Media Entertainment and Arts Alliance, though another possibility is Kiama councillor Imogen Draisma. Former Shoalhaven councillor Serena Copley is named as a possible Liberal candidate.

Click here for full display of Port Macquarie by-election results.

Live commentary

End of Saturday. Liberal candidate Robert Dwyer ends the evening with 34.2% of the primary vote to Nationals candidate Sean Gleeson’s 31.2%, with preferences slightly favouring Dwyer. This is sufficient for my system to call it for Dwyer by a margin currently projected at 2.8%. In raw terms, Dwyer leads by 14,654 to 13,437 on the two-candidate count, a lead of 1217, which should increase by about 200 when a batch of postals that have as yet only reported primary votes are in. Still to come are about 13,500 more early votes, 2700 from two outstanding election day booths, and about as many postals. That leaves Gleeson needing a break of nearly 54-46 in his favour to pull off a win, when history suggests that only the election day booths will be unusually favourable to him.

9.26pm. The second pre-poll primary vote result, Port Macquarie Central EVC, has tipped my system into calling it for the Liberals after breaking 39.5% to 29.8% their way, although the swings weren’t particularly remarkable.

8.58pm. My system wasn’t updating for a while, but it’s back now. A batch of 1593 postals went well for the Liberals, but there’s been nothing further in the way of pre-polls (still on the primary votes for Port Macquarie EVC), the pattern of which is the main point of interest now.

8.20pm. Port Macquarie EVC is the first pre-poll to report its primary votes, and the swing from Liberal to Nationals looks slightly below par.

8.14pm. The primary vote swings are all over the shop, so presumably candidate factors are looming large here, as you might expect. Sean Gleeson’s home town of Hannam Vale has swung 36% in his favour.

8.12pm. On closer analysis, it undoubtedly has something to do with the Liberals having done about 8% better on pre-polls in 2023, none of which have reported as of yet, as compared with election day votes.

8.08pm. My system is back to almost calling it for the Liberals, but I couldn’t tell you why off the top of my head because the raw TCP count has the Nationals narrowly in front.

7.51pm. Just as my system was about to call it, the pendulum has swung back a little to the Nationals, though it’s not on account of the first Port Macquarie booth having reported.

7.36pm. My system seemingly gets closer to calling it for Liberal with every update, though there’s still nothing in from Port Macquarie, so I guess I’d offer a vague note of caution that the swings there might be radically different due to candidate-related factors that I’m not on top of.

7.32pm. Bit of a blockage there that I’ve taken care of with a few pieces of tape and string. My system is close to calling it for the Liberals, based on the fact that preferences are breaking evenly and the Liberals have the edge on the primary vote. The latter is somewhat more true of the projection than the raw figures, presumably because there’s still nothing in from Port Macquarie proper, where I imagine the Liberals do better.

7.18pm. Starting to look promising for the Liberals, though there are no votes in yet from Port Macquarie proper. I seem to have replaced the old problem in my primary vote projection with a new one that leaves Warwick Jonge with nothing, so I’m a little wary of it. So far as the projected TCP is concerned, the issue will resolve when enough votes are in for my system to switch to the projection based on the actual count.

7.06pm. I’ve tweaked my preference model in favour of Liberal, who I’m now projecting to a very narrow lead. Once enough votes are counted it will go off the actual preference flows recorded by the TCP count. There’s an issue with my primary vote projection that’s inflating the Warwick Jonge vote, but it’s probably an academic point.

6.53pm. Presuambly the sudden shift is due to Dunbogan Jubilee Hall, where I’m recording a 20% Liberal swing on the primary vote.

6.51pm. Looking quite a lot closer now, for whatever reason. I just noticed that my preference estimates were failing to account for optional preferential voting and a high exhaustion rate — they’re doing so now.

6.46pm. The first TCP result is in from the small Johns River Hall booth — to the extent that it suggests anything, it’s that the exhaustion rate will be rather high.

6.42pm. Three booths in and they suggest the seat will revert to Nationals type. A weak showing so far for independent Warwick Yonge, who at this stage doesn’t look like he will make the final three ahead of the Greens. I’m presently assuming Yonge’s preferences will break evenly between Nationals and Liberal, but his how-to-vote card favoured the Liberals. A TCP result or two should give a clearer idea.

6.20pm. Polls closed 20 minutes ago — frantically trying to iron a few last (hopefully) bugs out of my live results page, which you can find linked to above.

Preview

A mildly diverting by-election is on today in the New South Wales state seat of Port Macquarie, where Leslie Williams has called time on a 14-year parliamentary career. Williams held the seat for the Nationals from 2011 to 2020, then defected to the Liberals and retained the seat under their banner in 2023. This has made for a keenly fought contest between the Liberals, whose candidate is Laurieton United Services Club general manager Robert Dwyer, and the Nationals, who have endorsed Hannan Vale beef cattle farmer Sean Gleeson, with Labor sitting it out. Further complicating matters is that the original winner of the local Nationals preselection, general practitioner Warwick Yonge, is running as an independent after the party’s central executive mysteriously declined to ratify his endorsement. You can learn more about the electorate through my by-election guide – this site will offer the usual live results feature if I’m able to get my act together in time.

There are now three state by-elections looming for blue-ribbon Liberal seats in Sydney, that latest arising after Pittwater MP Rory Amon promptly resigned from parliament after being charged with child sex offences on Friday. Michael Koziol of the Sydney Morning Herald reports it is “likely to be scheduled alongside other by-elections on October 19”, and that “most Liberals were resigned to losing the seat” – presumably to teal independent Jacqui Scruby, who came within 0.7% of winning the seat when Amon succeeded Rob Stokes at the 2023 election.

Megan Gorrey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports that Stokes has thrown his support behind Northern Beaches deputy mayor Georgia Ryburn, who was touted in a report last week as a possible challenger to teal independent Sophie Scamps in the federal seat of Mackellar, though she has not publicly identified herself as a contender in either case. Another name to have emerged is Michael Gencher, a council colleague of Ryburn’s and fellow victim of the party’s nominations fiasco. Others are familiar from the contest to succeed Stokes before the last election: Natasha Maclaren-Jones, an upper house member who withdrew as it became apparent she lacked sufficient support; and Claire Longley, EY consultant and daughter of former member Jim Longley, who was refused an exemption from a party rule barring nominees who had not been financial members for six months. (UPDATE: The Manly Daily reports Ryburn, Longley, Gencher and another Northern Beaches councillor, Bianca Crvelin, have nominated for Liberal preselection, while the Sydney Morning Herald reports Jacqui Scruby has confirmed she will run again).

As noted in a previous post, the other two by-elections will be held to replace Dominic Perrottet in Epping, where the Liberals have preselected Monica Tudehope, former policy director to Perrottet and daughter of Damien Tudehope, a former member for the seat who now leads the party in the Legislatve Council; and Matt Kean in Hornsby, where the new Liberal candidate is Corrs Chambers Westgarth lawyer James Wallace. Labor reduced the margins at the 2022 election to 4.8% in Epping with a 6.5% swing, and to 8.0% in Hornsby with an 8.8% swing.