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Live commentary
End of Saturday. Liberal candidate Robert Dwyer ends the evening with 34.2% of the primary vote to Nationals candidate Sean Gleeson’s 31.2%, with preferences slightly favouring Dwyer. This is sufficient for my system to call it for Dwyer by a margin currently projected at 2.8%. In raw terms, Dwyer leads by 14,654 to 13,437 on the two-candidate count, a lead of 1217, which should increase by about 200 when a batch of postals that have as yet only reported primary votes are in. Still to come are about 13,500 more early votes, 2700 from two outstanding election day booths, and about as many postals. That leaves Gleeson needing a break of nearly 54-46 in his favour to pull off a win, when history suggests that only the election day booths will be unusually favourable to him.
9.26pm. The second pre-poll primary vote result, Port Macquarie Central EVC, has tipped my system into calling it for the Liberals after breaking 39.5% to 29.8% their way, although the swings weren’t particularly remarkable.
8.58pm. My system wasn’t updating for a while, but it’s back now. A batch of 1593 postals went well for the Liberals, but there’s been nothing further in the way of pre-polls (still on the primary votes for Port Macquarie EVC), the pattern of which is the main point of interest now.
8.20pm. Port Macquarie EVC is the first pre-poll to report its primary votes, and the swing from Liberal to Nationals looks slightly below par.
8.14pm. The primary vote swings are all over the shop, so presumably candidate factors are looming large here, as you might expect. Sean Gleeson’s home town of Hannam Vale has swung 36% in his favour.
8.12pm. On closer analysis, it undoubtedly has something to do with the Liberals having done about 8% better on pre-polls in 2023, none of which have reported as of yet, as compared with election day votes.
8.08pm. My system is back to almost calling it for the Liberals, but I couldn’t tell you why off the top of my head because the raw TCP count has the Nationals narrowly in front.
7.51pm. Just as my system was about to call it, the pendulum has swung back a little to the Nationals, though it’s not on account of the first Port Macquarie booth having reported.
7.36pm. My system seemingly gets closer to calling it for Liberal with every update, though there’s still nothing in from Port Macquarie, so I guess I’d offer a vague note of caution that the swings there might be radically different due to candidate-related factors that I’m not on top of.
7.32pm. Bit of a blockage there that I’ve taken care of with a few pieces of tape and string. My system is close to calling it for the Liberals, based on the fact that preferences are breaking evenly and the Liberals have the edge on the primary vote. The latter is somewhat more true of the projection than the raw figures, presumably because there’s still nothing in from Port Macquarie proper, where I imagine the Liberals do better.
7.18pm. Starting to look promising for the Liberals, though there are no votes in yet from Port Macquarie proper. I seem to have replaced the old problem in my primary vote projection with a new one that leaves Warwick Jonge with nothing, so I’m a little wary of it. So far as the projected TCP is concerned, the issue will resolve when enough votes are in for my system to switch to the projection based on the actual count.
7.06pm. I’ve tweaked my preference model in favour of Liberal, who I’m now projecting to a very narrow lead. Once enough votes are counted it will go off the actual preference flows recorded by the TCP count. There’s an issue with my primary vote projection that’s inflating the Warwick Jonge vote, but it’s probably an academic point.
6.53pm. Presuambly the sudden shift is due to Dunbogan Jubilee Hall, where I’m recording a 20% Liberal swing on the primary vote.
6.51pm. Looking quite a lot closer now, for whatever reason. I just noticed that my preference estimates were failing to account for optional preferential voting and a high exhaustion rate — they’re doing so now.
6.46pm. The first TCP result is in from the small Johns River Hall booth — to the extent that it suggests anything, it’s that the exhaustion rate will be rather high.
6.42pm. Three booths in and they suggest the seat will revert to Nationals type. A weak showing so far for independent Warwick Yonge, who at this stage doesn’t look like he will make the final three ahead of the Greens. I’m presently assuming Yonge’s preferences will break evenly between Nationals and Liberal, but his how-to-vote card favoured the Liberals. A TCP result or two should give a clearer idea.
6.20pm. Polls closed 20 minutes ago — frantically trying to iron a few last (hopefully) bugs out of my live results page, which you can find linked to above.
Preview
A mildly diverting by-election is on today in the New South Wales state seat of Port Macquarie, where Leslie Williams has called time on a 14-year parliamentary career. Williams held the seat for the Nationals from 2011 to 2020, then defected to the Liberals and retained the seat under their banner in 2023. This has made for a keenly fought contest between the Liberals, whose candidate is Laurieton United Services Club general manager Robert Dwyer, and the Nationals, who have endorsed Hannan Vale beef cattle farmer Sean Gleeson, with Labor sitting it out. Further complicating matters is that the original winner of the local Nationals preselection, general practitioner Warwick Yonge, is running as an independent after the party’s central executive mysteriously declined to ratify his endorsement. You can learn more about the electorate through my by-election guide – this site will offer the usual live results feature if I’m able to get my act together in time.