Click here for full display of Northern Tablelands by-election results.
6.50pm. There being nothing to discuss as regards the result, a technical point worth observing is that the New South Wales Electoral Commission uniquely publishes full ballot paper data, which enables a meaningful Nationals-versus-Greens based on comparison with the general election, despite the Greens having finished third behind Labor. This currently records a swing against the Nationals of around 2%.
6.31pm. Six booths in on the primary, three on TCP, and my system is well and truly calling it. Shooters still second, but these are rural booths.
6.23pm. There are two booths in, with the Nationals as expected on around three-quarters of the primary vote. Only 216, but my system is projecting that Shooters rather than Greens will finish second.
6.10pm. Polls have closed for the New South Wales state by-election for New England region seat of Northern Tablelands, which shows no sign of being anything other than a walkover for Nationals candidate Brendan Moylan in his bid to succeed Adam Marshall. His competition consists of Shooters Fishers and Farmers, the Greens and two independents. You can follow the results through the above link, including swing and probability calculations and detailed results tables and maps. The New South Wales Electoral Commission is conducting a two-candidate count between the Nationals and Greens – the above display is geared for Nationals versus Shooters, which I’m presently scrambling to fix.
Thanks William. Nationals still doing well in tablelands.
Hard to imagine that this was once a Labor and then Independent seat
@William
Your display page doesn’t seem to be updating – unless it’s actually accurate that the last 5 / 46 booths still haven’t been counted on 1st prefs – no change at all to the page since part-way through election night.
I’ve done it now — I’ll only be doing it at the end of each day from here on out. Thanks for paying attention though.
Thanks William