Resolve Strategic: Labor 33, Coalition 36, Greens 12 in NSW

The second New South Wales state poll for the year suggests Labor is still in front, but has gone backwards from the result that failed to win it a majority last March.

The bi-monthly Resolve Strategic poll has not been reported in the Sydney Morning Herald, but the results appear on the Political Monitor poll display feature of the paper’s website. It finds both major parties down since the previous poll, in which the Coalition opened up a primary vote for the first time since the March 2023 election, with Labor down a point to 33% and the Coalition down two to 36%. The Greens are steady on 12%, with the generic independent category up two to 14% and others steady on 5%. This suggests a two-party preferred lead to Labor of around 52-48, compared with an election result of 54.3-45.7. Chris Minns is credited with a 37-16 lead over Mark Speakman as preferred premier, out from 35-16 last time. The result was derived from the national Resolve Strategic polls conducted March 21 to 24 and April 17 to 21, from a sample of 1000.

In other New South Wales state politics news, a by-election looms for a date yet to be determined in the rural seat of Northern Tablelands following the resignation of Nationals MP Adam Marshall, who cited the “demanding and all-consuming role”. However, the Sydney Morning Herald notes suggestions the 39-year-old Marshall may be planning to succeed Barnaby Joyce in the corresponding federal seat of New England.

Resolve Strategic: Labor 34, Coalition 38, Greens 12 in NSW

The first New South Wales poll for the year records a surprise surge in support for the Coalition.

The Sydney Morning Herald yesterday published a New South Wales state poll from Resolve Strategic, which even more than last week’s federal result was a lot less strong for Labor than the pollster’s past form. A Coalition that has been struggling through its first year in opposition is credited with a six-point spike on the primary vote since November to 38%, while Labor is down three to 34%. The Greens are down a point to 12%, a generic independents category is steady on 12%, and “others” is down two to 5%. This suggests a two-party result of around 51.5-48.5 in Labor’s favour, compared with 54.3-45.7 at the election last March.

A preferred premier question continues to produce a high undecided result, although it has narrowed to the extent Chris Minns’ lead over Liberal leader Mark Speakman is out from 35-13 to 35-16. The accompanying report says the sample for the poll was 1035, but is silent on the question of field work dates. It thus leaves unanswered the question of whether the interruption of New Year has prompted a change to the pollster’s normal practice of combining state results from the past two monthly national surveys, last week’s poll having been the first since early December.

Resolve Strategic: Labor 36, Coalition 32, Greens 13 in New South Wales

Minor parties up and majors down in the latest bi-monthly New South Wales state result from Resolve Strategic.

Yesterday’s Sydney Morning Herald carried results of a Resolve Strategic poll of state voting intention in New South Wales that has both major parties down on the primary vote from the mid-September poll – Labor by two to 36%, and the Coalition by four to 32%. The beneficiaries are minor parties, with the Greens up four to 13% and others up three to 7%, with a generic independents option down one to 12%. Based on preference flows from the March state election*, I make this 56.6-43.4 to Labor on two-party preferred, compared with an election result of 54.3-45.7. Chris Minns holds a 35-13 lead over Mark Speakman as preferred premier, in from 41-14.

As is usually the case with Resolve Strategic’s New South Wales and Victorian state polls, this one combines two sets of surveys conducted a month apart, in the first weeks of the previous and present month. The former presumably formed part of the pre-referendum national poll, but the provenance of the latter is a mystery for now, as the state polling results are usually released after federal ones and we have as yet had no federal Resolve Strategic poll for November. There is presuambly a strong chance this will change shortly. The overall sample for the poll is 1044.

* Since I went to the trouble of crunching the ballot paper data to work this out, I will record here that Greens preferences went 59.5% to Labor, 7.3% to the Coalition and 33.2% exhausted, while all others went 22.7% to Labor, 20.3% to the Coalition and 57.0% exhausted.

Resolve Strategic: Labor 38, Coalition 36, Greens 9 in NSW

Resolve Strategic latest bi-monthly result from New South Wales has Labor down three points for the second time in a row.

The Sydney Morning Herald reports Resolve Strategic’s bi-monthly read of New South Wales state voting intention has Labor’s primary vote down three points on the last bi-monthly result to 38% (and six from the poll before that in May), with the Coalition up four to 36% and the Greens down one to 9%. A rough-and-ready reckoning of the two-party preferred vote comes out at about 54-46 in favour of Labor, in from 58.5-41.5 last time. The results at the March state election were Labor 37.0%, Coalition 35.4% and Greens 9.7%, with Labor winning the two-party preferred 54.3-45.7. Despite the narrowing, the size of Chris Minns’ lead over Mark Speakman as preferred premier is unchanged, nudging from 39-12 to 41-14 with a still high 46% uncommitted. The sample was 1019, and I presume was combined from the pollster’s last two national surveys, from September 6 to 9 and August 9 to 12.

Resolve Strategic: Labor 41, Coalition 32, Greens 10 in NSW

The Minns government still dominant in the second poll since its election, though a little less so than in the first; and Gladys Berejiklian seemingly acquitted in the court of public opinion.

The Sydney Morning Herald had poll results from Resolve Strategic on state voting intention in New South Wales on Friday, which escaped my notice at the time. The poll had Labor on 41% of the primary vote, down three from May, with the Coalition up one to 32% and the Greens up one to 10%. This would come out at about 58-42 in Labor’s favour based on preference flows at the election, at which the primary votes were Labor 37.0%, Coalition 35.4% and Greens 9.7% and the two-party preferred 54.3-45.7. The results combine the New South Wales responses from pollster’s last two monthly national surveys, with a sample of 1012.

Also featured were questions on Gladys Berejiklian that found most of her teflon coating intact, with 51% saying they still liked and respected her while 25% did not (those who never did in the first place presumably being obliged to favour the latter response). Thirty-three per cent agreed that ICAC had “eroded any positive views I held” compared with 42% disagreeing, while 40% agreed Berejiklian should not have resigned as Premier based on what came out of ICAC, with 34% disagreeing. These results are based only on the most recent survey period, from Wednesday to Saturday last week, with a sample of 556.

Resolve Strategic: Labor 44, Coalition 31, Greens 9 in New South Wales

A garden variety post-change of government poll in New South Wales records a honeymoon voting intention lead and seemingly little name recognition for the new Opposition Leader.

Resolve Strategic produces the first public poll of New South Wales state voting intention since the election of the Minns government in March, finding Labor’s honeymoon kicking in with a lead over the Coalition of 44% to 31% on the primary vote, compared with 37.0% to 35.4% at the election, with the Greens on 9% as compared with 9.7%. I make this to be a two-party preferred lead of about 60-40 based on preference flows at the election. Chris Minns scores a 42-12 lead over the new Opposition Leader, Mark Speakman, as preferred premier.

The poll combines results from the pollster’s last two national polls, which were conducted from April 12 to 16 and May 10 to 14, from a combined sample of 1102. The 552 from the more recent survey period were asked to pick three cost of living pressures as being of most concern: with little change from January, fresh food and groceries led in being chosen by 65%, followed by utility bills with 58%. Medical expenses falls from 34% to 25%, relinquishing third place to the cost of a home on 28%.

UPDATE: An instructive talk by Antony Green on the March state election at the New South Wales State Library can be viewed on the parliamentary website.

NSW upper house button press: 11am today

Animal Justice a good chance to win the final upper house seat

3:34pm The seventh Coalition candidate defeated Animal Justice after distribution of preferences by 10,628 votes or 0.05 of a quota, only down slightly from the 0.07 primary vote lead on quotas. The margin is too big for a recount to overturn.

12pm The Coalition has won the final upper house seat. That means the left only achieved an 11-10 win at this election, and that the overall upper house is tied 21-21.

11:38am You can watch the live stream of the results on YouTube. So far six candidates have been elected. It was expected to take an hour. It’s the 21st and final seat that is in doubt between the Coalition and Animal Justice.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The button to electronically distribute preferences in the NSW upper house will be pressed at 11am AEST today. In late counting, the gap between the Coalition’s seventh candidate and Animal Justice closed to just 0.07 quotas. Animal Justice is now a good chance to overcome that lead on preferences. More details in this article for The Conversation yesterday.

The final results for the lower house are Labor 45 of the 93 seats, Coalition 36, Greens three and independents nine, so Labor is two seats short of the 47 needed for a majority. More details and a review of the polling are in last Thursday’s article for The Conversation.

More late counting: New South Wales and Aston

A further update on late counting in New South Wales, where the situation is more or less resolved for the lower house but remains up in the air for the upper.

Click here for full display of New South Wales state election results.
Click here for full display of Aston by-election results.

Tuesday, March 18

Data entry for the Legislative Council count has been completed and the button will be pressed on the result tomorrow. The first preference vote totals on the NSWEC website are now final. The issue remains whether Animal Justice, on 0.4665 quotas, can outperform the Coalition, on 6.4885 quotas, to the extent that the last seat goes to their candidate rather than the Coalition’s seventh.

Sunday, March 16

I believe we have a final result from Aston: Labor 48,915 (53.6%), Liberal 42,402 (47.3%), a swing to Labor of 6.4%.

Saturday, March 15

Antony Green reports the Ryde recount has confirmed Liberal candidate Jordan Lane as the winner in Ryde, the recount increasing his margin from 50 to 54.

Thursday, March 13

A recount will be conducted in Ryde, starting on Saturday and continuing if need be on Monday.

Wednesday, March 12

Counting for the New South Wales was definitively resolved on Saturday, when it was determined that the Liberals won a squeaker in Ryde with 25,425 votes on the two-candidate preferred check count (50.05%) to Labor’s 25,375 (49.95%). Labor has apparently asked for a recount, but after two counts and a closely scrutinised data entry process, this would be a long shot even if the request were granted. That leaves the final seat count as indicated on my results page: Labor 45, Coalition 36, Greens three and independents nine. Unfortunately, the rest of my results are the initial counts rather than the check counts, as these are what appears in the media feed. The check count results can be found on the Electoral Commission website. However, the actual definitive results will be determined by the preference distributions, which will be conducted tomorrow and the next day.

Then there is the Legislative Council, where counting is still ongoing. The situation has fairly consistently appeared to be that Labor will win eight, the Coalition a minimum of six, the Greens two, One Nation, Legalise Cannabis, Liberal Democrats and Shooters Fishers and Farmers one each, leaving the final seat to go either to Animal Justice or the seventh Coalition candidate. The Coalition are currently on 6.66 quotas (30.28% of the vote) while Animal Justice are on 0.47 quotas (2.14% of the vote), with the Animal Justice relying on preference to close a gap of 0.19 quotas. Kevin Bonham has a model that allows for the fact that most of the outstanding votes are below-the-line, which tend to be relatively strong for Animal Justice, such that the gap is estimated at 0.14 quotas. If the Coalition prevails, the 42-member chamber will be evenly split between left and right, whereas an Animal Justice win would tip it to 22-20. The Electoral Commission says the button on the complete count will be pressed some time next week.

The final stages of the Aston count are of purely academic interest, but you can continue to follow the latest results through the above link.