Category: New South Wales Politics

The Sydney Morning Herald yesterday published a New South Wales state poll from Resolve Strategic, which even more than last week’s federal result was a lot less strong for Labor than the pollster’s past form. A Coalition that has been struggling through its first year in opposition is credited with a six-point spike on the primary vote since November to 38%, while Labor is down three to 34%. The Greens are down a point to 12%, a generic independents category is steady on 12%, and “others” is down two to 5%. This suggests a two-party result of around 51.5-48.5 in Labor’s favour, compared with 54.3-45.7 at the election last March.

A preferred premier question continues to produce a high undecided result, although it has narrowed to the extent Chris Minns’ lead over Liberal leader Mark Speakman is out from 35-13 to 35-16. The accompanying report says the sample for the poll was 1035, but is silent on the question of field work dates. It thus leaves unanswered the question of whether the interruption of New Year has prompted a change to the pollster’s normal practice of combining state results from the past two monthly national surveys, last week’s poll having been the first since early December.

Yesterday’s Sydney Morning Herald carried results of a Resolve Strategic poll of state voting intention in New South Wales that has both major parties down on the primary vote from the mid-September poll – Labor by two to 36%, and the Coalition by four to 32%. The beneficiaries are minor parties, with the Greens up four to 13% and others up three to 7%, with a generic independents option down one to 12%. Based on preference flows from the March state election*, I make this 56.6-43.4 to Labor on two-party preferred, compared with an election result of 54.3-45.7. Chris Minns holds a 35-13 lead over Mark Speakman as preferred premier, in from 41-14.

As is usually the case with Resolve Strategic’s New South Wales and Victorian state polls, this one combines two sets of surveys conducted a month apart, in the first weeks of the previous and present month. The former presumably formed part of the pre-referendum national poll, but the provenance of the latter is a mystery for now, as the state polling results are usually released after federal ones and we have as yet had no federal Resolve Strategic poll for November. There is presuambly a strong chance this will change shortly. The overall sample for the poll is 1044.

* Since I went to the trouble of crunching the ballot paper data to work this out, I will record here that Greens preferences went 59.5% to Labor, 7.3% to the Coalition and 33.2% exhausted, while all others went 22.7% to Labor, 20.3% to the Coalition and 57.0% exhausted.

The Sydney Morning Herald reports Resolve Strategic’s bi-monthly read of New South Wales state voting intention has Labor’s primary vote down three points on the last bi-monthly result to 38% (and six from the poll before that in May), with the Coalition up four to 36% and the Greens down one to 9%. A rough-and-ready reckoning of the two-party preferred vote comes out at about 54-46 in favour of Labor, in from 58.5-41.5 last time. The results at the March state election were Labor 37.0%, Coalition 35.4% and Greens 9.7%, with Labor winning the two-party preferred 54.3-45.7. Despite the narrowing, the size of Chris Minns’ lead over Mark Speakman as preferred premier is unchanged, nudging from 39-12 to 41-14 with a still high 46% uncommitted. The sample was 1019, and I presume was combined from the pollster’s last two national surveys, from September 6 to 9 and August 9 to 12.

The Sydney Morning Herald had poll results from Resolve Strategic on state voting intention in New South Wales on Friday, which escaped my notice at the time. The poll had Labor on 41% of the primary vote, down three from May, with the Coalition up one to 32% and the Greens up one to 10%. This would come out at about 58-42 in Labor’s favour based on preference flows at the election, at which the primary votes were Labor 37.0%, Coalition 35.4% and Greens 9.7% and the two-party preferred 54.3-45.7. The results combine the New South Wales responses from pollster’s last two monthly national surveys, with a sample of 1012.

Also featured were questions on Gladys Berejiklian that found most of her teflon coating intact, with 51% saying they still liked and respected her while 25% did not (those who never did in the first place presumably being obliged to favour the latter response). Thirty-three per cent agreed that ICAC had “eroded any positive views I held” compared with 42% disagreeing, while 40% agreed Berejiklian should not have resigned as Premier based on what came out of ICAC, with 34% disagreeing. These results are based only on the most recent survey period, from Wednesday to Saturday last week, with a sample of 556.

Resolve Strategic produces the first public poll of New South Wales state voting intention since the election of the Minns government in March, finding Labor’s honeymoon kicking in with a lead over the Coalition of 44% to 31% on the primary vote, compared with 37.0% to 35.4% at the election, with the Greens on 9% as compared with 9.7%. I make this to be a two-party preferred lead of about 60-40 based on preference flows at the election. Chris Minns scores a 42-12 lead over the new Opposition Leader, Mark Speakman, as preferred premier.

The poll combines results from the pollster’s last two national polls, which were conducted from April 12 to 16 and May 10 to 14, from a combined sample of 1102. The 552 from the more recent survey period were asked to pick three cost of living pressures as being of most concern: with little change from January, fresh food and groceries led in being chosen by 65%, followed by utility bills with 58%. Medical expenses falls from 34% to 25%, relinquishing third place to the cost of a home on 28%.

UPDATE: An instructive talk by Antony Green on the March state election at the New South Wales State Library can be viewed on the parliamentary website.

Click here for full display of New South Wales state election results.

Click here for full display of Aston by-election results.

Tuesday, March 18

Data entry for the Legislative Council count has been completed and the button will be pressed on the result tomorrow. The first preference vote totals on the NSWEC website are now final. The issue remains whether Animal Justice, on 0.4665 quotas, can outperform the Coalition, on 6.4885 quotas, to the extent that the last seat goes to their candidate rather than the Coalition’s seventh.

Sunday, March 16

I believe we have a final result from Aston: Labor 48,915 (53.6%), Liberal 42,402 (47.3%), a swing to Labor of 6.4%.

Saturday, March 15

Antony Green reports the Ryde recount has confirmed Liberal candidate Jordan Lane as the winner in Ryde, the recount increasing his margin from 50 to 54.

Thursday, March 13

A recount will be conducted in Ryde, starting on Saturday and continuing if need be on Monday.

Wednesday, March 12

Counting for the New South Wales was definitively resolved on Saturday, when it was determined that the Liberals won a squeaker in Ryde with 25,425 votes on the two-candidate preferred check count (50.05%) to Labor’s 25,375 (49.95%). Labor has apparently asked for a recount, but after two counts and a closely scrutinised data entry process, this would be a long shot even if the request were granted. That leaves the final seat count as indicated on my results page: Labor 45, Coalition 36, Greens three and independents nine. Unfortunately, the rest of my results are the initial counts rather than the check counts, as these are what appears in the media feed. The check count results can be found on the Electoral Commission website. However, the actual definitive results will be determined by the preference distributions, which will be conducted tomorrow and the next day.

Then there is the Legislative Council, where counting is still ongoing. The situation has fairly consistently appeared to be that Labor will win eight, the Coalition a minimum of six, the Greens two, One Nation, Legalise Cannabis, Liberal Democrats and Shooters Fishers and Farmers one each, leaving the final seat to go either to Animal Justice or the seventh Coalition candidate. The Coalition are currently on 6.66 quotas (30.28% of the vote) while Animal Justice are on 0.47 quotas (2.14% of the vote), with the Animal Justice relying on preference to close a gap of 0.19 quotas. Kevin Bonham has a model that allows for the fact that most of the outstanding votes are below-the-line, which tend to be relatively strong for Animal Justice, such that the gap is estimated at 0.14 quotas. If the Coalition prevails, the 42-member chamber will be evenly split between left and right, whereas an Animal Justice win would tip it to 22-20. The Electoral Commission says the button on the complete count will be pressed some time next week.

The final stages of the Aston count are of purely academic interest, but you can continue to follow the latest results through the above link.