Category: New South Wales Politics

Resolve Strategic: Labor 37, Coalition 27, Greens 10 in New South Wales

A New South Wales state poll suggests the Liberal leadership change and Bondi attacks have had little impact on voting intention.

The Sydney Morning Herald reports the regular bi-monthly New South Wales state poll from Resolve Strategic, combining sub-samples from the last two monthly national polls, shows next to no change on the result that preceded the Liberal leadership change in early December. The primary votes are Labor 37% (steady), Coalition 27% (down one), Greens 10% (steady), independents 11% (down four) and others 15% (up four). No two-party preferred is provided: my best estimate based on typical preference flows gets Labor close to 60-40, though that would be a few points lower if One Nation provided the bulk of the expanding “others” vote.

Chris Minns holds a 40-18 lead over Kellie Sloane as premier, which is stronger than his 31-19 lead in the last poll with Mark Speakman as Liberal leader. Minns’ net likeability rating increases from plus 14 to plus 25, while Sloane is at plus ten. The sample from the January survey found 49% rating the state government’s response to the Bondi attacks as strong and 19% as weak, with 67% supporting its gun reforms and 16% opposed. The sample was 572 from the January survey and 1145 overall.

RedBridge Group: 57-43 to Labor in New South Wales

No encouragement for Kellie Sloane in the first New South Wales state poll since she assumed the Liberal leadership.

The first published poll of New South Wales state voting intention since Kellie Sloane replaced Mark Speakman as Liberal leader shows no improvement in the party’s position, with Labor leading 57-43 on two-party preferred from primary votes of Labor 38%, Coalition 30%, Greens 10% and One Nation 4%. Forty-three per cent agreed the government had the right focus and priorities, with 33% disagreeing, while 20% felt Kellie Sloane and the Coalition deserved to win the next election, with 45% disagreeing. The poll was conducted by RedBridge Group/Access Research from November 24 (three says after Sloane became leader) to December 8 from a sample of 1293 and published in the Financial Review.

Killing season part two: the turn of the NSW Liberals

Days after Brad Battin was deposed by Jess Wilson in Victoria, a beleaguered Mark Speakman agrees to go quietly in New South Wales.

The New South Wales Liberals will choose a new leader tomorrow after the late afternoon resignation of Mark Speakman, who has thrown his support behind Kellie Sloane, factional moderate (UPDATE: Alexandra Smith of the Sydney Morning Herald rates that Sloane is both moderate and unaligned) and Shadow Health Minister, who entered parliament at the March 2023 election as the member for Vaucluse. Recent reports have indicated that Sloane would have had the numbers to depose Speakman, but that she was choosing for the time being not to proceed. Nonetheless, the Sydney Morning Herald reports that Speakman lost decisive moderate support over the past week after failing to act against Alister Henskens after he sought support from a right faction meeting last week for a leadership challenge of his own. It is not yet clear if Henskens, or indeed anyone else other than Sloane, will nominate. Speakman’s late afternoon announcement came just hours after he told 2GB he was “here to fight”, suggestions his resignation might be imminent having been prompted by visits to his office yesterday from MPs Chris Rath, James Wallace and Scott Farlow.

Resolve Strategic: Labor 37, Coalition 28, Greens 10 in New South Wales

Despite stable numbers on voting intention, a New South Wales state poll finds a significant narrowing in Chris Minns’ lead as preferred premier.

The Sydney Morning Herald yesterday reported that the bi-monthly New South Wales state poll from Resolve Strategic has Labor down one to 37%, the Coalition steady on 28%, the Greens steady on 10%, generic independents up four to 15% and others down one to 11%. I would roughly estimate Labor’s two-party preferred lead at 58-42, compared with a 2023 election result of 54.3-45.7, though the size of the independent and others result makes this highly imprecise. Chris Minns lead over Mark Speakman narrows substantially from 37-16 to 31-19. The poll was conducted from the New South Wales components of the last two monthly national surveys, from a collective sample of 1000.

DemosAU: 59-41 to Labor in New South Wales

A New South Wales state poll tells a familiar story of Labor well on top in two-party terms, but with One Nation support at historic heights.

A new poll by DemosAU finds state Labor in New South Wales, which appeared to be struggling in the polls until at least up to the May federal election, recording a blowout two-party lead of 59-41, from primary votes of Labor 37%, Coalition 30% and Greens 13%. Various demographic breakdowns are featured in the full report. Chris Minns holds a 44-25 lead over Mark Speakman as preferred premier. As in the Queensland poll earlier this week, the poll finds cost of living and housing affordability by far the most salient issues. We are also treated to a result on upper house voting intention which has One Nation at a formidable 15%, with Labor on 30%, the Coalition on 21% and the Greens on 13%. The poll was conducted October 16 to 22 from a sample of 1016.

Also on the NSW state politics front:

• The Daily Telegraph’s The Sauce column reports Mark Hodges, the Liberal member for Castle Hill, faces as many as three preselection challengers, among them Peter Gangemi, former Hills Shire mayor. Columnist James O’Doherty cites “faction bosses” saying Hodges “was never going to be around long-term”, having emerged as the sole preselection nominee ahead of the 2023 election after the party’s candidate vetting committee blocked presumed front-runner Noel McCoy.

• Also courtesy of The Sauce, talk of two further challenges against sitting Liberals: Miranda MP Eleni Petinos faces former federal Hughes MP Jenny Ware, a circumstance Petinos reportedly blames on deputy leader Natalie Ward; and an unspecified challenger has emerged to North Shore MP Felicity Wilson, who survived by one vote against a challenge in 2018 from now Willoughby MP Tim James.

• In a report on Local Government Minister Ron Hoenig’s alleged involvement in an Office of Local Government inquiry process to aid the council preselection of former Bayside mayor Bill Saravinovski, Max Maddison of the Sydney Morning Herald relates expectations Steve Kamper will retire from his seat of Rockdale at the next election and be succeeded by his chief-of-staff, current Bayside mayor Ed McDougall.

Resolve Strategic: Labor 38, Coalition 28, Greens 10 in NSW

Following Labor’s Kiama by-election win, a new NSW state poll finds the Coalition shedding support to minor parties and independents.

The Sydney Morning Herald yesterday carried the latest bi-monthly Resolve Strategic result of state voting intention in New South Wales, combining 1000 responses from the state out of the last two monthly national polls. Coming in the wake of Labor’s win in Saturday’s Kiama by-election, it found Labor with a steady primary vote of 38% while the Coalition slipped four to 28%, the Greens also slipping three to 10%. The generic independents category was up three to 11%, and others were up two to 12%. No two-party preferred was provided, but conventional preference flows would have got Labor to a lead upwards of 59-41. Chris Minns’ lead as preferred premier was out from 35-16 to 37-16.

Kiama by-election live

Live results and commentary from the New South Wales state by-election for Kiama.
Projected 3CP Projected 2CP Win Probability

Click here for full display of Kiama by-election results

End of evening. Labor has comfortably won the Kiama by-election with what I’m projecting to be 59.2% of the two-party vote. This pushes Labor to 46 seats out of 93 in the Legislative Assembly, such that the government will now rely on the support of one independent rather than two. It will be noted that the two-party swing is nonetheless a seemingly healthy 10.8% in favour of the Liberals, but this is somewhat deceptive: far more ballots had Labor higher than Liberal at the 2023 election because much of the conservative vote had gone to Gareth Ward, and as with all voters in New South Wales, a good proportion of these would have given him a first preference and left it at that. It may be more instructive to compare the result with the result with Ward’s 8.7% margin as a Liberal on the same boundaries in 2019, such that this can be seen as a Labor swing of around 18% off that base.

8.57pm. The big Albion Park early voting centre is the first such to report, with 7771 formal votes, and it too records swings little different from the polling day votes.

8.27pm. There are now 2415 postal votes in the count, which have swung in an almost identical fashion to the polling day votes.

7.49pm. All but three out of 22 polling day booths are in on the primary vote, with the TCP counts starting to catch up. As yet there are no pre-poll booths in, but we will presumably see at least some of those later in the evening, and perhaps also some postals.

7.39pm. And now I’m calling it for Labor, with 15 booths in on the primary and three on two-candidate, the projected Liberal swing now down to 10.0%.

7.34pm. With 13 booths in on the primary vote and two on tw0-party, my system is now basing its projection on the actually observed preference flow so far, which is more favourable to Labor than my estimates. The swing is accordingly down 10.4%, and the Labor win probability up to 98.6% — the system will call it when it gets to 99%.

7.18pm. We’re now up to seven booths on the primary vote, and my projection of the two-party Liberal swing remains short of a required 19.7% at 13.8%. However, my system is applying a wide margin-of-error to this due to the absence of two-candidate results, getting Labor as far as a 78.9% win probability. If the two-candidate results confirm my preference estimates are broadly correct, it will probably start calling it for Labor.

7.14pm. A fourth booth, which was probably the Gerroa Neighbourhood Centre, moves the dial slightly to the Liberals, their vote there picking by a handy 22.5%. This pushes the two-party swing up from 12.0% to 13.8%, though that’s still well short of the 19.7% they need. It should be noted that this is based off my pre-determined preference estimates, there being still no two-candidate preferred results.

7.05pm. Three booths in now on the primary vote, and while I’m projecting a 12.0% two-party swing to the Liberals, they actually need more like 20% — the figure flatters them because much of their normal support base cast a one-only vote for Gareth Ward in 2023.

7.03pm. The first result in is 386 primary votes from Kiama High, and while the Liberal vote neatly doubles to 21.0%, the gain is less than what they would not from Gareth Ward’s vote from 2023. However, it looks like this was quite a weak booth for Ward, and my system is well short of calling it.

6pm. Polls have closed for the Kiama by-election, occasioned by the forced resignation of independent Gareth Ward, and generally considered a strong opportunity for Labor to get its representation up from 45 to 46 in a chamber of 93. There are a few small rural booths in this electorate, so we will presumably be seeing some sort of result well within the hour.

Kiama by-election minus four days

A contested by-election looms in New South Wales, offering a strong opportunity for a seemingly ascendant minority Labor government.

The New South Wales state by-election for the southern Illawarra seat of Kiama will be held on Saturday, presenting Chris Minns’ minority Labor government with what would seem a strong chance of improving its lower house representation to 46 seats out of 93. The seat is being vacated after Gareth Ward resigned on August 8 pending his expulsion over sexual abuse convictions recorded against him the previous month. Ward gained the seat for the Liberals at the 2011 election and held it as an independent after 2021, when he resigned from the ministry and the party after identifying himself as the subject of an inquiry of the child abuse and sex crimes squad.

Despite having changes hanging over him at the March 2023 election, Ward managed to retain the seat with a 0.7% margin over Labor, the Liberal candidate finishing a distant third. Importantly for the matter at hand, Labor recorded an emphatic win on the two-party preferred vote over the Liberals by a margin of 19.7%, with the bulk of Ward’s primary vote exhausting. The Liberals have not shied from the contest, despite early suggestions it might be better left to the Nationals, who made up for what they lacked in any sort of historic presence in the region in not being associated with Ward. However, the Nationals ultimately ruled themselves out, and the seat will be contested for the Liberals by former Shoalhaven councillor Serena Copley. Labor’s candidate is Katelin McInerney, who fell narrowly short of winning the seat in 2023.

I have belatedly published a guide to the by-election; live results will as usual unfold on the site from the usual time on Saturday evening.

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