Category: New South Wales Politics

The Sydney Morning Herald today reports on the bi-monthly New South Wales state polling numbers from its regular Resolve Strategic series, in a report that does not appear to be online at the time of writing, although the results can be found on the website’s Resolve Monitor feature. This records little change on the previous result, with Labor unchanged at 29%, One Nation unchanged at 25%, the Coalition up a point to 24%, and the Greens unchanged at 11%. With Mike Newman now anointed as One Nation’s prospective parliamentary leader, there is now a three-way preferred premier question which has Chris Minns at 27%, Kellie Sloane at 15% and Newman at 8%, compared with Minns’ 36-16 lead over Sloane two months ago.

The poll combines the New South Wales results from the pollster’s last two monthly national surveys for an overall sample of 1100. The 550 respondents to the more recent monthly survey were asked about the federal-state agreement on tighter gun laws, finding 63% in support with 19% opposed.

Further New South Wales state election news:

• The Australian reported on Tuesday on a poll of 1000 respondents conducted for the Minerals Council of Australia by Insightfully, which had Labor and One Nation each on 29%, with the Coalition on 18% and the Greens on 13%. The poll was conducted August 5 to 12 from a sample of 1000.

• The Sydney Morning Herald reported a fortnight ago that a “recent private poll” in Cessnock, which will be contested for One Nation by leadership hopeful Mike Newman, had One Nation leading Labor by 50% to 24%.

• James Griffin, who succeeded Mike Baird as Liberal member for Manly in 2017, announced a fortnight ago that he will not seek re-election. The Daily Telegraph’s The Sauce column reports candidates for Liberal preselection could include upper house member Natalie Ward; Adelaide Cuneo, who “works in the energy sector”; and Northern Beaches deputy mayor Georgia Ryburn. Alexandra Smith of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Elouise Massa, who has campaigned for a government takeover of Northern Beaches Hospital since failures were identified by a review into the death of her son, will run as an independent.

• A week on from James Griffin’s announcement, Liberal colleague Alister Henskens announced that he too will bow out at the election as the member for one of the party’s safe seats. Henskens entered parliament as the member for Ku-ring-gai in 2015, transferring to the successor seat of Wahroonga after it was abolished in 2023.

• The Byron Shire Echo reports Byron Shire councillor Janet Swain has won a Labor preselection ballot for the seat of Ballina, which will be vacated at the election with the retirement of Greens member Tamara Smith.

The Daily Telegraph reports (though seemingly not online) that latest DemosAU poll of state voting intention in New South Wales has the Coalition bouncing back five points to 25%, mostly at the expense of One Nation who are down four from a record high to 23%. Labor and the Greens are steady on 32% and 13% respectively. The pollster provides a two-party figure with Labor leading 57-43 based on preference flows in 2023, but cautions that this “factors in a large exhaustion rate for One Nation voters” that could be lower in the event of a preference deal. The poll also features upper house voting intention results with Labor on 31%, the Coalition on 25%, One Nation on 24% and the Greens on 14%, and a seat projection showing 20 or perhaps 21 seats out of 40 going to a broadly defined right.

Leadership ratings, which did not feature in the June poll, find Chris Minns at 37% positive, 41% neutral and 22% negative, Kellie Sloane is at 25%, 55% and 20%, and Chris Minns leading 44-26 on preferred premier. Further questions find 55% support for the federal-state gun buyback scheme with 27% opposed, and 28% of a view that the state is headed in the right direction compared with 49% for wrong direction (a uniform pattern of such polling of late). The poll was conducted August 19 to 26 from a sample of 1028; the full report features demographic breakdowns and should be available on the pollster’s website over the next day or so.

Further news of relevance to the election in March:

• One Nation has announced Mike Newman as its prospective parliamentary leader and candidate for the Labor-held Hunter region seat of Cessnock. Newman served from 2022 to 2024 as one of the state’s trade and investment commissioners, a role made famous by former Nationals leader John Barilaro and abolished when Labor came to power. The party’s upper house ticket will be headed by Stuart Bonds, who has twice achieved strong results in the federal seat for Hunter.

• The Daily Telegraph’s The Sauce column reports Tara Moriarty has been reduced to seventh position on Labor’s upper house ticket after leading it in 2019. Daniel Mookhey and Penny Sharpe will head the ticket, followed by newcomer Bernard Govind, incumbent Anthony D’Adam, and newcomers Mark Morey and Asren Pugh. Not featured are incumbents Mark Buttigieg, who reportedly lost the support of the Right because the Electrical Trades Union was no longer aligned with it, and Greg Donnelly, who is retiring.

• Rod Bruem of the Ballina News Daily reports Byron Shire councillor Janet Swain and former NBN News cameraman Lachlan Hall have nominated for Labor preselection in Ballina, which will be vacated at the election with the retirement of Greens member Tamara Smith.

The Sydney Morning Herald reports the regular bi-monthly Resolve Strategic result on New South Wales state voting intention (available in the print edition, but not yet online that I can see) has Labor up three points to 32%, the Coalition up one to 26%, One Nation down one to 22% and the Greens steady on 10%. Chris Minns holds a 38-18 lead over Kellie Sloane on preferred premier, little changed from the previous result of 38-17. The poll was compiled from New South Wales responses out of the pollster’s last two national surveys, with an overall sample of 1000.

We’re now well inside a year out from the next election, and preselection news is starting to accumulate:

• Lachlan Leeming of The Australian reports that Mark Buttigieg is likely to lose his position on Labor’s Legislative Council ticket to Unions NSW secretary Mark Morey, having lost favour with the Right after the Electrical Trades Union detached itself from the faction. Buttigieg was the last of the seven members elected from the Labor ticket in 2019. Another Right faction MLC, Greg Donnelly, is “mooted by some colleagues as likely to retire”, but his position is in the domain of the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association. Left faction MLC Peter Primrose is also expected to retire, his likely successor being Asren Pugh, “a former councillor at Byron Shire who is set to benefit from the Left’s rules that one of their candidates be from regional NSW”. The report further says the male dominance of the ticket could put pressure on male MPs in the lower house.

• The Nationals upper house preselection in March returned the party’s three incumbents, Sarah Mitchell, Nichole Overall and Wes Fang, to the second, fifth and eighth positions mandated to the party on the joint Coalition ticket. However, the eighth position seems a highly dubious prospect in the current electoral environment, such that the result raises doubts about the future of Fang, who has a strong social media following and support base on the right. The Daily Telegraph’s The Sauce column reports Fang may have been the victim of a lack of tactical adroitness by Young Nationals members whose enthusiasm for unsuccessful newcomer Angus Webber helped Overall take the fifth position at Fang’s expense. It further reports “strong rumours” that Fang is considering defecting to One Nation, noting he is “old friends” with Barnaby Joyce and has “removed Nationals branding from some of his social media posts”. Former Nationals leader and Bathurst MP Paul Toole has also confirmed being approached by One Nation.

• In a review article on One Nation in the Sydney Morning Herald in late March, “political strategists” identified a threat to the Nationals in seven of their 11 seats — Upper Hunter, Tamworth, Dubbo, Bathurst, Oxley, Coffs Harbour and Clarence — together with Liberal-held Goulburn. Conservative vote-splitting — a particularly live issue under New South Wales’ system of optional preferential voting — “may even lead to Labor picking up more metro seats”. The most vulnerable Labor-held seats are said to be Cessnock, Camden and Penrith. Lachlan Leeming of The Australian reports One Nation’s upper house ticket is likely to be led by Stuart Bonds, who has twice achieved strong results in the federal seat for Hunter.

• Michael McGowan of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Sue Higginson, who filled David Shoebridge’s vacancy when he was elected to the Senate in 2022, will lead the Greens’ upper house ticket at the next election. Higginson won 51% from a party membership vote held last month, ahead of 24% for the other incumbent seeking re-election, Abigail Boyd, who retains the second position from which she was elected in 2019.

• Mark Hodges, first-term Liberal member for Castle Hill, lost a preselection vote in late February to The Hills Shire mayor Peter Gangemi. Linda Silmalis of the Sunday Telegraph reports Hodges was eliminated in the first round, with Gangemi prevailing in the second over fellow factional conservative Thomas Ryan, senior manager of polling firm Freshwater Strategy. A conservative factional source links Hodges’ defeat to the weakening of the centre right faction and its figurehead, federal Mitchell MP Alex Hawke.

• Former deputy police commissioner Mick Willing has been preselected as the Liberal candidate for Camden, which Sally Quinnell gained for Labor in 2023 (and which, as noted, is a potential target for One Nation). Wendy Lindsay will seek a comeback in East Hills, which she held from 2019 until Kylie Wilkinson gained it for Labor in 2023. Lindsay has served Revesby ward on Canterbury-Bankstown City Council since 2024.

• Linda Silmalis of the Sunday Telegraph reports Phil Longley, whose father Jim Longley held the seat from 1986 to 1996, has “apparently nominated” for Liberal preselection in Pittwater. Longley is director of government relations at the Workers Insurance Association of New South Wales and a former policy adviser to Jason Falinski, the then federal member for Mackellar. His sister, Claire Longley, ran for preselection in the seat before the last election but was defeated by Rory Amon, an outcome that was criticised by then deputy Liberal leader Matt Kean. Independent Jacqui Scruby fell narrowly short of defeating Amon at the election, then gained the seat at the by-election held in October 2024 after Amon was charged with child sex offences.

• Tamara Smith, who has held the Byron Bay area seat of Ballina for the Greens since 2015, has announced she will not contest the next election.

The bi-monthly New South Wales state poll from Resolve Strategic in the Sydney Morning Herald is the first to have One Nation included as a response option, with a predictably transformative effect: support for the party is at 23%, which more than accounts for a drop in the independents and others result from 26% to 11%. What’s unusual is that the One Nation surge has seemingly taken a bigger bite out of Labor than the Coalition, who are respectively down eight to 29% and two to 25%, with the Greens unchanged at 10%. The convulsion on voting intention has had no impact on preferred premier, on which Chris Minns has an unchanged lead over Kellie Sloan of 38-17. As usual, this combines the New South Wales samples out of the pollster’s last two monthly national polls, with a sample of 1000.

The Sunday Telegraph today carries a DemosAU poll of state voting intention in New South Wales, recording primary votes of 34% for Labor, down three on the last such poll in October; 23% for the Coalition, down seven; 21% for One Nation, for whom no result was recorded in October; and 15% for the Greens, up two. Chris Minns records personal ratings of 38% positive, 45% neutral and 17% negative, while Kellie Sloane is at 22% positive, 59% neutral and 19% negative. Minns holds a 48-24 lead over Sloane for preferred premier, bettering his 44-25 lead over Mark Speakman from October.

Also featured are results on upper house voting intention, which have Labor on 29%, One Nation on 22%, the Coalition on 21% and the Greens on 13%, with none of the minor players exceeding 2%. This compares with equivalent results at the 2023 election of Labor 36.6%, Coalition 29.8%, Greens 9.1% and One Nation 5.9%. The poll was conducted February 24 to March 4 from a sample of 1032.

There was also a Roy Morgan SMS poll a fortnight ago which had One Nation at an improbable 30%, ahead of both Labor on 25% and the Coalition on 19%, with the Greens on 12.5%. It was conducted February 16 to 19 from a sample of 2108.

The Sydney Morning Herald reports the regular bi-monthly New South Wales state poll from Resolve Strategic, combining sub-samples from the last two monthly national polls, shows next to no change on the result that preceded the Liberal leadership change in early December. The primary votes are Labor 37% (steady), Coalition 27% (down one), Greens 10% (steady), independents 11% (down four) and others 15% (up four). No two-party preferred is provided: my best estimate based on typical preference flows gets Labor close to 60-40, though that would be a few points lower if One Nation provided the bulk of the expanding “others” vote.

Chris Minns holds a 40-18 lead over Kellie Sloane as premier, which is stronger than his 31-19 lead in the last poll with Mark Speakman as Liberal leader. Minns’ net likeability rating increases from plus 14 to plus 25, while Sloane is at plus ten. The sample from the January survey found 49% rating the state government’s response to the Bondi attacks as strong and 19% as weak, with 67% supporting its gun reforms and 16% opposed. The sample was 572 from the January survey and 1145 overall.