The Sydney Morning Herald reports Resolve Strategic’s bi-monthly read of New South Wales state voting intention has Labor’s primary vote down three points on the last bi-monthly result to 38% (and six from the poll before that in May), with the Coalition up four to 36% and the Greens down one to 9%. A rough-and-ready reckoning of the two-party preferred vote comes out at about 54-46 in favour of Labor, in from 58.5-41.5 last time. The results at the March state election were Labor 37.0%, Coalition 35.4% and Greens 9.7%, with Labor winning the two-party preferred 54.3-45.7. Despite the narrowing, the size of Chris Minns’ lead over Mark Speakman as preferred premier is unchanged, nudging from 39-12 to 41-14 with a still high 46% uncommitted. The sample was 1019, and I presume was combined from the pollster’s last two national surveys, from September 6 to 9 and August 9 to 12.
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of NSW state politics. The open thread for general discussion is here.
The NSW ALP can partly thank my local member, Tim Crakanthorp, for the swift end of their honeymoon. It turns out his FIL, Joe Manitta, is a major property owner and developer in Newcastle. Joe Manitta and members of his family, including his daughter Laura Crakanthorp, own a substantial number of properties in Broadmeadow, in an area earmarked for extensive redevelopment and potential profit for the Manitta family. None of which was declared by Tim Crakanthorp, despite him being Minister for the Hunter and being involved in the Broadmeadow redevelopment.
Minns was absolutely right to sack Crakanthorp and refer him to ICAC. It smells a lot like the John Sidoti scandal, where this former Liberal minister and member for Drummoyne had his family purchase property in Drummoyne, near the site of what Sidoti knew would be a new metro station. Sidoti was found to be corrupt by ICAC.
It’s up to ICAC to determine just what happened with Crakanthorp. There is no allegation, yet, that he accepted bribes or tried to benefit the Manitta family property interests. But it looks terrible-no way I’ll be voting for Crakanthorp if he is the ALP candidate in 2027.
Newcastle has a history of corrupt property developers bribing politicians. In the 2011 ALP wipeout in NSW, Liberals swept all the seats in the Hunter. Turns out the local Liberals were on the payroll of local property developers Jeff McCloy and Hilton Grugeon, who were handing out $10,000 bungs in cash in brown paper bags to their Liberal mates. The prize for the property developers was truncation of the rail line to Newcastle and opportunities that would open up for developers in Newcastle West. Jeff McCloy and Hilton Grugeon are still chairmen of their property development companies in the Hunter today, having seemingly paid no price for their corruption.
The policy decisions of the new Government seem unexpected
Wow… I don’t even need to exaggerate for this one. A 6% drop in 4 months is bad my anyone’s standard. Good to see NSW Labor have picked up where they left off 12 years ago.
shellbell @ #3 Thursday, September 14th, 2023 – 8:59 am
Shellbell
You must be pleased with the government – if nothing else they have established plenty of commissions of enquiry.
The one into healthcare funding has the potential to achieve great things but I worry it will be a fizzer
(BTW do you know who counsel assisting is – I have heard rumours)
OC
Not really. There seem to be a few underperforming inquiries on the go at the moment.
Why does a dept or govt need lawyers to guide the way as to how health money should be spent?
Don’t know who CA is but pleased it won’t be me.
It seems like a very tentative government from afar in Queensland. In fact Chris Minns has seemed tentative right from the start of his leadership. I wonder why?
Shellbell
Our Medicare model of health spending is at least 30 years out of date by world standards. Someone outside the system should make a big statement but:
1. They may not get the knowledge to do so during the enquiry
2. The fed state split makes any change difficult
3. Real change would shake the bureaucracy and be resisted
The rumour for CA I have heard is an ex Director of Medical Services for one of the health districts who is now a barrister
OC
Initials?
Sounds like a bit of buyer’s remorse.
Some people just expect miracles after a decade of Liberal waste & neglect.
TW
Last time Oakeshott Country had a hot tip it was a replacement at the Cth Department of Health. Alas silence. What odds is OC offering now?
I think this is a better one. The tip on secretary was apparently only in the fevered mind of the tipee
Strewth Crikey Stone The Crows. WTF is this crap. We plummet in the NSW Poll too now. Rigged. Were they paid off? Are they anti-vax and covid & climate deniers too? With polls like this it wouldn’t surprise me. All I can say is P#SS OFF
If this occurred on election day ,
Lib/nats would still be in opposition
Labor would likely gain seats whether it would be enough for a majority ,50/50
Alex Smith from the Herald still prosecuting the same old agenda. I genuinely thought she had gone off to write another book on Gladys as she had not been publishing as much. Alas I was wrong.
The new Nine Paper reporters on the beat are pretty decent though. Ex Guardian McGowan ran a decent and strong coverage in the Guardian of NSW politics and has continued it with Nine.
This new Govt does have some headwinds to deal with. Not entirely fairly reported or attributed by the media. The budget was clearly left in a mess. Crickets really about Dom and Boy Wonder Keanu really.
Alex Smith’s pro NSW Liberals agenda is so transparent, I don’t think that she even tries to hide it. Check out some of the reviews from her book about Gladys
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/61113320-the-secret#CommunityReviews
“This is such a hagiography of Gladys Berejiklian that the subtitle could have been St. Gladys. ”
“Reasonably entertaining outline of Gladys Berejiklian’s premiership and ultimate political demise, but lacking in any real critical analysis.”
“A few interesting tidbits and scintillating morsels just couldn’t make up for the overt partisan praise from Smith”
“Interesting at times but also super partisan most other times”
minns seems to have been very invizable as premier just like he was as opposition leaderdont think he believes in any thing the govermnent gave the teachers a masive pay rise but has made litle progress on nurse to pashint ratios
not sure what the point of minns is asae pointed out its clear most mps did not want him was pushed buy the hsu unions and the anti labor right such as graham richardson minns seems to not have any firm beliefs
my sums this is still an alp win versus the libs. Are the rumours of Speakman contesting Cook correct?
The last I read on Morrison was that he will stay until the end of the current parliament. Maybe the job offers haven’t been what he was hoping for. So I don’t think Speakman is going anywhere.
I think Speakman is a decent person. I don’t recall any kind of scandal he was associated with in government. As AG he wasn’t the typical hard right populist “bring back hanging” kind of guy, he actually did some progressive things like changes to sexual consent laws. But relative to Minns, he’s a weak media performer. Minns I think comes across as likeable and moderate. Speakman is flat, colourless. I think Minns will be a great asset to the government.
Besides the Crakanthorp scandal, the other issue running against the government is “jobs for the boys”, with Jo Haylen parachuting in a mate as Transport secretary. But the big increases in pay for health and education workers, which the LNP oppose, will surely be huge pluses for the government for workers in those industries. The downside of that is the impact on the budget, which will be substantial. We’ll learn more about on Tuesday, when Mookhey delivers his first budget.
Poor old Jo Haylen.
She just wanted the trains to run on time.
Dont we all?
The first wave Georgia trial will be known as Cheese and Kraken Trial
the attacks on joe haylin seems like revenge as the liberals are still anoyed that john barilarow could not take up his trade role in us he was the trade minister who designed the role he eventualy he was appointed to buy his successor Stuart ayres
it is not the best look murray was not on the short list but if he last worked as a labor stafffer back in 2008 for moris iemma that was over 15 years a go andisnt it good to have a department chief the minister gets along with David elliott did not even talk with his department chief rob sharp he kept sleeping while the department called him when they shut the trains down