Yesterday’s Sydney Morning Herald carried results of a Resolve Strategic poll of state voting intention in New South Wales that has both major parties down on the primary vote from the mid-September poll – Labor by two to 36%, and the Coalition by four to 32%. The beneficiaries are minor parties, with the Greens up four to 13% and others up three to 7%, with a generic independents option down one to 12%. Based on preference flows from the March state election*, I make this 56.6-43.4 to Labor on two-party preferred, compared with an election result of 54.3-45.7. Chris Minns holds a 35-13 lead over Mark Speakman as preferred premier, in from 41-14.
As is usually the case with Resolve Strategic’s New South Wales and Victorian state polls, this one combines two sets of surveys conducted a month apart, in the first weeks of the previous and present month. The former presumably formed part of the pre-referendum national poll, but the provenance of the latter is a mystery for now, as the state polling results are usually released after federal ones and we have as yet had no federal Resolve Strategic poll for November. There is presuambly a strong chance this will change shortly. The overall sample for the poll is 1044.
* Since I went to the trouble of crunching the ballot paper data to work this out, I will record here that Greens preferences went 59.5% to Labor, 7.3% to the Coalition and 33.2% exhausted, while all others went 22.7% to Labor, 20.3% to the Coalition and 57.0% exhausted.