Friday miscellany: Liberal preselections, SEC Newgate poll and more (open thread)

Liberal disunity interrupts the Tasmanian branch’s federal preselection process, as a new poll records a growing sense that the country is headed in the wrong direction.

Once again, the latest haul of federal preselection news is dominated by both action and inaction on the Liberal Party front:

• Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports the Tasmanian Liberal executive has delayed until March preselection votes that were scheduled for Braddon on November 12 and Bass for November 18 amid a conservative push to oust Bridget Archer from Bass. Candidates will also be required to sign an agreement not to speak out against the party line, which was likely prompted by Archer’s outspokenness on issues such as the party’s push in parliament for a royal commission into child sex abuse.

• A report on the above matter from Benjamin Seeder of the Burnie Advocate draws my attention to the fact that Liberals preselected Susie Bower, who was also the candidate in 2022, in the central Tasmanian seat of Lyons back in April. Bower is chief executive of the Bell Bay Advanced Manufacturing Zone and a former Meander Valley councillor. Brian Mitchell has held the seat precariously for Labor since 2016, Bower reducing his margin in 2022 to 0.9% with a 4.3% swing that was partly a correction after a troubled Liberal campaign in 2019.

• A Liberal preselection will be held tomorrow for Russell Broadbent’s seat of Monash in regional Victoria, where the 72-year-old incumbent faces challenges from Nathan Hersey, mayor of the Shire of South Gippsland, and Mary Aldred, head of government relations for Asia Pacific at Fujitsu. Aldred is the daughter of the late Ken Aldred, who held various federal seats for the Liberals from 1975 to 1996. While her father was a figure of some controversy, The Age reports Mary Aldred is “viewed as a moderate”, in common with Broadbent.

• The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column reports displeasure among Liberal National Party members at the time being taken to begin preselection proceedings for the Gold Coast seat of McPherson, which will be vacated at the next election on the retirement of Karen Andrews. Mentioned as possible contenders are Ben Naday, former migration agent and federal ministerial adviser; Leon Rebello, solicitor at King & Wood Mallesons; and David Stevens, managing director of a private strategy and investment consulting firm and Howard government cabinet policy unit adviser.

• Canberra CityNews reports the Liberals have preselected Joanne van der Plaat, Cooma lawyer and former president of the Law Society of New South Wales, as candidate for Eden-Monaro. Van der Plaat was chosen ahead of Vanessa Cheng, a management consultant.

There is also the following to relate on the polling front:

• This week’s Roy Morgan poll has Labor leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, in from 53-47 last week, from primary votes of Labor 31.5% (down one), Coalition 35% (steady) and Greens 13.5% (down one-and-a-half). The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1371.

• SEC Newgate’s regular bi-monthly Mood of the Nation survey finds 32% rating the federal government’s performance as good, down four points from August, with poor steady at 36%. Expectations about the state of the economy three years from now have taken a hit, with the positive rating down eight from the last survey to 50% and negative up six to 34%. The question of whether Australia is headed in the right direction, on which opinion was evenly divided through 2022, is now running 63-37 against. Of the mainland states, small sample state breakdowns have consistently found optimism highest in Western Australia and lowest in Queensland. Queensland was targeted with an elevated sample of 603, of whom 27% rated the state government’s performance as good compared with 43% for poor. The poll was conducted October 18 to 23 from an overall sample of 1610.

• The Australian reports Newspoll found the most favoured options for helping with the cost of living were, in order, subsidising energy bills (84%), subsidising fuel prices (81%), cutting government spending to reduce inflation (77%), personal tax cuts (73%) and cash payments to low-income families (56%).

• Kos Samaras from RedBridge Group offers further results from its poll last week showing 34% consider the Albanese government has the right priorities compared with 50% who disagree, while 30% believe “the Coalition led by Peter Dutton” is ready for government and 50% think otherwise.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

784 comments on “Friday miscellany: Liberal preselections, SEC Newgate poll and more (open thread)”

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  1. Re the Seekers: I was still only a kid in their heyday, but my impression is that the late Judith Durham complemented many a young man’s fantasies about Sunday School teachers and librarians.

    “Underneath the blankets, for all the girls and boys” followed by a bit of “rocking, rolling, riding.”

    Or something like that.

  5. Oakeshott country @ #663 Sunday, November 12th, 2023 – 3:21 pm

    laughtong @ #655 Sunday, November 12th, 2023 – 2:39 pm

    C@t
    Your comment earlier about vaccinations and science.

    Just appeared in the Age breaking news.
    Hundreds of children exposed to tuberculosis at US daycare.

    I would guess that TB vaccination is not in the routine vaccination schedule in the US
    In Australia only some states went that path and stopped several decades ago
    NSW had the wonderful policy of mandatory 2nd yearly Chest X-rays but this stopped in the early 80s

    Late (as usual), but TB vaccination (BCG) is not on any routine vaccination schedule. BCG is a live vaccine which does not reduce the risk of acquisition of TB in childhood, but does reduce the impact when acquired. This is how it is used in sub-Saharan Africa. Those BCGs we got were useless at preventing TB – or at stopping the epidemic of MDR TB in Eastern Europe – and would not have stopped the childcare outbreak in the US. The only thing that works is X-ray surveillance & monitored multidrug treatment.

  7. Underneath the blankets, for all the girls and boys” followed by a bit of “rocking, rolling, riding.”

    Yes that did cause a bit of sickering in the ranks as I recall.

  10. Per Resolve Strategic, Federal polling primaries:
    * ALP 35% (-2)
    * LNP 30% (-1)
    * GRN 13% (+1)
    * ONP/UAP 9% (steady)
    * Others 13% (+2)

    I’ll leave someone else to do the 2PP calculation.

  13. MelbMammoth
    I agree. LNP Primary of 30% is a disaster. Having a deep dive of the poll figures, I see the primary vote for the Libs in Victoria is 26%. This is shocking, and federally they have no way back unless they start polling well, (and then) picking up seats in Victoria and NSW. (Forget about QLD, as the LNP are at the high water mark, meaning there are no more seats in QLD they can pick up).

    Pls refer to the Resolve/SMH link:
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/resolve-political-monitor-20210322-p57cvx.html

    This is a shocking result for the LNP, and looking at the Victorian primary figures this is a terrible indictment on the LNP state representative – Pesutto – as well.

  16. Thanks Steve777 – geez, you’re handy with a calculator.
    I agree, 55.5% to 45.5%, doesn’t spell disaster for the Federal ALP.

    What I can’t work out is WB, Kevin Bonham and Bryan Palmer( non de plume MarktheBallot), all have done calculations recently indicating the ALP primary is in trouble. I trust what they report as they know their work, but the current polls which have come out since the referendum, don’t really suggest any major trend away from the ALP. My feeling is that the Feds are coasting along.

  18. nath
    Shogun, I’m guessing The Seekers is where you are most comfortable?

    Your guess is not correct. You do not understand the mind of Shogun.

  19. Sigil:

    For me, 90s and early-mid 00s alt-rock, alt-metal, grunge, and post-grunge can never be beaten, with late-90s/early-00s being a huge guilty pleasure on account of being just the right age to get into it when it was really big. I love me some good 70s classic rock and prog rock too, though I must admit that 70s and 80s metal doesn’t do much for me (except for stuff right at the tail-end of the 80s like Guns N’ Roses and Metallica.)

    I’m no fan at all of the truly heavy varieties of metal (death, thrash, black, etc), with the odd exception like In Flames, which has some absolute bangers. In general, I prefer my metal too be relatively catchy and melodic, rather than sounding like the cookie monster and a drumkit falling down a flight of stairs.

  21. with late-90s/early-00s being a huge guilty pleasure

    This should read: “with late-90s/early-00s nu-metal being a huge guilty pleasure”

  22. At the risk of sounding very dated, my favourite metal or rock bands are still 60s and 70s UK and Australian ones I listened to in my youth. So Pink Floyd and the Who as well as Cold Chisel, Midnight Oil. I also quite like folk-rock sounds like Red Gum and Jethro Tull.

    My other preferred genre was US soul singers, with Eritha Franklin being my favourite there among lots of Motown artists. Later I liked Lou Reed and the B52s.

    My parents loved the Seekers and I heard a lot of them growing up. I didn’t hear much of the Beatles till I moved out. Dad didn’t like them after Lennon said they were more popular than Jesus Christ! 😀

  25. @Asha.

    Nice.

    I grew up and got into music in the 90s so the alt-all stuff was my jam and why Faith No More is easily my favourite band of all time.

    I do like the heavier stuff tho, but it has to have a groove. So sludge metal, stoner rock and stoner doom is what I listen to mainly when I’m in a metal mood (which is often). Kyuss, Electric Wizard, Clutch (if I want a more blues based hard rock vibe) and Acid Bath to give a few examples.

  26. Musically, I very much like most of European music that survives from the 18th century and US black music from the 1920s on. I like traditional music from around the Mediterranean and from Russia, and the instruments and styles that were in wide use in the Ottoman Empire. My favourite classical European composer is Handel. Classical Persian, Indian, Chinese and Japanese idioms are interesting. I also very much like Australian Aboriginal music, especially as it relates to dance.

  28. Sigil says:
    Sunday, November 12, 2023 at 10:06 pm
    Keen on hearing Bludgers favourite metal genres.
    ==============================================
    Me:

    * Don’t Cry – Guns n Roses. (Though this is more a ballad) ARIA Chart Peak No.5 on 22-Sep-1991
    * Ciao Baby (Edie) – The Cult. Didn’t make the ARIA charts, but I like it.

    Back to the polls…

    Essential Media & Morgan should both report by Tues arvo, and we are overdue for a YouGov poll. Next Newspoll should be next Sunday evening.

  29. What a refreshing article about the Joyce nuptials.

    I particularly was intrigued by the threat of one of his daughters from his first marriage, who didn’t get an invite, to gate crash while dressed in her mother’s wedding dress. I couldn’t think of a better put down to a conservative champion of family values.

    I know some like to put the boot into the Murdoch outlets but we should never forget the wit of their headline writer when a front page photo of a very pregnant Vikki was accompanied by the caption “a bundle of Joyce”.

  30. The best photo for mine was the one of Vikki, fag and drink in hand, wedding dress hoiked up, cowboy boots propelling her through the dust and dirt. Only in Australia. 😐

  31. My son is going to see a Dwarf Metal band soon. And they were going to see a Pirate Metal band but Covid came along.

    Idk, are The Red Hot Chilli Peppers, ‘Metal’? I think so. We both love them at our place.

    Also, I guess I go back to the Gods of Metal when I think about who I loved…Deep Purple, Led Zeppelin, Iron Butterfly, Black Sabbath. I did love a bit of Glam Metal as well…The Sweet, Marc Bolan and T Rex, David Bowie.

    Was Lou Reed, ‘Metal’? I think so. He did have an album called, ‘Metal Machine Music’.

    Then you have to consider whether bands like Husker Du, Sonic Youth, Henry Rollins and Black Flag are ‘Metal’?

    Aerosmith always were. I loved Aerosmith. Got to see them go by in a blur, backstage at the Perth Ent Cent. 😉

  33. Here’s some interesting data. Overlay it with where the loudest voices against against Offshore Wind Farms are:

    Snowy Monaro, Shoalhaven, Kiama and Port Stephens also have the next highest levels of short-term rentals in NSW, according to the government’s latest figures.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/short-term-rental-review-targets-90-000-homes-20231110-p5ej4b.html

    Behind every astroturf community group is a bunch of investment property, short term rental Air B’n’B owners who don’t want the value of their properties diminished by those howwible wind turbines?

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