Friday miscellany: Liberal preselections, SEC Newgate poll and more (open thread)

Liberal disunity interrupts the Tasmanian branch’s federal preselection process, as a new poll records a growing sense that the country is headed in the wrong direction.

Once again, the latest haul of federal preselection news is dominated by both action and inaction on the Liberal Party front:

• Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports the Tasmanian Liberal executive has delayed until March preselection votes that were scheduled for Braddon on November 12 and Bass for November 18 amid a conservative push to oust Bridget Archer from Bass. Candidates will also be required to sign an agreement not to speak out against the party line, which was likely prompted by Archer’s outspokenness on issues such as the party’s push in parliament for a royal commission into child sex abuse.

• A report on the above matter from Benjamin Seeder of the Burnie Advocate draws my attention to the fact that Liberals preselected Susie Bower, who was also the candidate in 2022, in the central Tasmanian seat of Lyons back in April. Bower is chief executive of the Bell Bay Advanced Manufacturing Zone and a former Meander Valley councillor. Brian Mitchell has held the seat precariously for Labor since 2016, Bower reducing his margin in 2022 to 0.9% with a 4.3% swing that was partly a correction after a troubled Liberal campaign in 2019.

• A Liberal preselection will be held tomorrow for Russell Broadbent’s seat of Monash in regional Victoria, where the 72-year-old incumbent faces challenges from Nathan Hersey, mayor of the Shire of South Gippsland, and Mary Aldred, head of government relations for Asia Pacific at Fujitsu. Aldred is the daughter of the late Ken Aldred, who held various federal seats for the Liberals from 1975 to 1996. While her father was a figure of some controversy, The Age reports Mary Aldred is “viewed as a moderate”, in common with Broadbent.

• The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column reports displeasure among Liberal National Party members at the time being taken to begin preselection proceedings for the Gold Coast seat of McPherson, which will be vacated at the next election on the retirement of Karen Andrews. Mentioned as possible contenders are Ben Naday, former migration agent and federal ministerial adviser; Leon Rebello, solicitor at King & Wood Mallesons; and David Stevens, managing director of a private strategy and investment consulting firm and Howard government cabinet policy unit adviser.

• Canberra CityNews reports the Liberals have preselected Joanne van der Plaat, Cooma lawyer and former president of the Law Society of New South Wales, as candidate for Eden-Monaro. Van der Plaat was chosen ahead of Vanessa Cheng, a management consultant.

There is also the following to relate on the polling front:

• This week’s Roy Morgan poll has Labor leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, in from 53-47 last week, from primary votes of Labor 31.5% (down one), Coalition 35% (steady) and Greens 13.5% (down one-and-a-half). The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1371.

• SEC Newgate’s regular bi-monthly Mood of the Nation survey finds 32% rating the federal government’s performance as good, down four points from August, with poor steady at 36%. Expectations about the state of the economy three years from now have taken a hit, with the positive rating down eight from the last survey to 50% and negative up six to 34%. The question of whether Australia is headed in the right direction, on which opinion was evenly divided through 2022, is now running 63-37 against. Of the mainland states, small sample state breakdowns have consistently found optimism highest in Western Australia and lowest in Queensland. Queensland was targeted with an elevated sample of 603, of whom 27% rated the state government’s performance as good compared with 43% for poor. The poll was conducted October 18 to 23 from an overall sample of 1610.

• The Australian reports Newspoll found the most favoured options for helping with the cost of living were, in order, subsidising energy bills (84%), subsidising fuel prices (81%), cutting government spending to reduce inflation (77%), personal tax cuts (73%) and cash payments to low-income families (56%).

• Kos Samaras from RedBridge Group offers further results from its poll last week showing 34% consider the Albanese government has the right priorities compared with 50% who disagree, while 30% believe “the Coalition led by Peter Dutton” is ready for government and 50% think otherwise.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

784 comments on “Friday miscellany: Liberal preselections, SEC Newgate poll and more (open thread)”

Comments Page 15 of 16
1 … 14 15 16

  2. LVT: Not a hugely convincing source I’m afraid. A government official more or less saying that if the predictions of reduced rainfall south to the Clare Valley turn out to be true, then there’ll be reduced rainfall south to the Clare Valley.

    There is an ongoing debate within the field of climate science as to the impact of rising temperatures on rainfalls in the temperate regions of Australia. Some predict that there will be perpetual drought in some currently arable regions. Others predict that there will be more rainfall on average, but that it will more typically come in bucketloads that will cause devastating floods.

    My take on it all: nobody is really certain what’s going to happen, but it sure is fun to predict doomsday scenarios.

    2006 was a couple of years before a lot of the doomsday predictors in academia lost a lot of their credibility when their predictions that the Millenium Drought was going to become the “new normal” were somewhat tarnished by the submersion of much of S-E Australia under a s__tload of water.

    There is no question that global temperatures are rising and that this will have severely adverse effects. But too many climate scientists and pseudo-scientists are inclined to jump to conclusions without sufficient evidence. And that invariably damages the cause.

    End of rant.

  3. Unfortunately, when the “selfish rich geriatrics” go, they are often just being replaced with younger, far right happy-clappers, or empty-suited staffers nowadays.

  6. Did anybody see the happy snaps of Barnaby Joyce and his beloved Vikki in the Tele today?

    He even looks less red in the face.

  7. The departure of Davis is a good thing. It was a bad look even if the relationship was legal (the other party was 17). If a heterosexual 31 year old was having sex with a 17 year old, there would been equal outrage.

  8. LVT: “Did anybody see the happy snaps of Barnaby Joyce and his beloved Vikki in the Tele today?”

    You mean these?

    https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/barnaby-joyce-to-wed-exstaffer-vikki-campion-at-bush-bash-wedding/news-story/be9832456dc35ea1a19011afe89516f4

    Fabulous boots on the bride. Slightly disturbing photo involving the kneeling position, but I’ll let that go through to the keeper.

    Looks like it was a fun event. I wonder what happened to my invitation?

  10. Vikki had probably better hope that she doesn’t fall out of Barnaby’s favour or he’ll probably be on the prowl behind her back for a younger, more beautiful Queen, to put it in a Game of Thrones reference.

    You know, like other men that Barnaby presumably admires. Donald Trump, Boris Johnson, Henry VIII, etc.

  15. LVT: “Norty comment re the kneeling photo Meher.”

    I was actually wanting to be critical of the newspaper to pick that particular photo to print out of no doubt hundreds that their photographer managed to take. I’m sure they’d argue that it was an innocent choice. I’m heartily sick of the media.

  16. Ok feeling like a bit of an idiot. There’s apparently a Motley Crue band member in Sydney and I got up in the face of group of men stalking out the restaurant and making the rest of us feel on edge.

    Me confronting the group of men brought this response: “I’m here to see Motley Crue”, like Motley Crue are giving an impomptu concert in a Sydney restaurant FFS.

    Sharing my pics with restaurant security they let it slip: “were they paparazzi?” Why would little ole me brook paparazzi? The restaurant security head said WTTE ‘if Motley Crue were here as a group or in person…”.

    There you go. Someone from the band is here in Sydney and dining where I am.

    Question: Why are these paparazzi guys so creepy?

  17. ‘fess: “Question: Why are these paparazzi guys so creepy?”

    My question would be, why do the paparazzi give a flying f__k about Motley Crue? They are so last century. Which magazine were the paparazzi from? The Senior?

  19. Confession:

    Why are these paparazzi guys so creepy?

    Probably because they are paparazzi. It’s one of the scummiest professions known to man.

  20. meher:

    No way were they pappers. Just some creepy two bit asshole who wanted to get a signature.

    I mean he told me he was in the restaurant for a Motley Crue concert like I don’t know who they are much less that they aren’t going to be giving free concerts for people in restaurants that house 100 people max.

  21. meher baba @ #717 Sunday, November 12th, 2023 – 7:42 pm

    ‘fess: “Question: Why are these paparazzi guys so creepy?”

    My question would be, why do the paparazzi give a flying f__k about Motley Crue? They are so last century. Which magazine were the paparazzi from? The Senior?

    It’s Australia. Even D-List American celebrities visiting will make the local news here.

  22. Asha @ Sunday, November 12, 2023 at 8:16 pm:

    “Confession:

    Why are these paparazzi guys so creepy?

    Probably because they are paparazzi. It’s one of the scummiest professions known to man.”
    ======================

    Two words: Princess Di. 😡
    Three more: lest we forget.

  26. ‘fess: Well, you can’t expect that a band with a name like “Motley Crue” will have particularly classy supporters.

    From a couple of my own experiences, celebrities in restaurants/bars/airports/walking down the street cause a degree of chaos. There are fan websites on which their every movement is tracked so that local fans can show up and get autographs and photos. It’s a bit like trainspotting really.

  27. MacArthur:

    Hey, I can actually answer that one!

    Its called “Motherfucker of the Year”, and was released in the mid-to-late 2000s. I only know of it’s existence because it was included in a compilation of recently released rock/metal songs I downloaded back in the say, and it stuck in my memory thanks to being, well, a Motley Crue song that from the mid-to-late 2000s.

    It’s, er… It was not a very good song.

  28. Confessions @ Sunday, November 12, 2023 at 8:19 pm:

    “Macarthur @ #718 Sunday, November 12th, 2023 – 8:15 pm

    Pop quiz: without consulting any online sources, name one Motley Crue song released in the last 30 years.

    Dr Feelgood.”
    ================

    Confessions, you are close, but with a release in 1989 it clocks up an age of 34 years. (I was in year 11 at the time, and liked that song almost as much as the contemporaneous ‘Kickstart My Heart’.)

  30. Macarthur: “Pop quiz: without consulting any online sources, name one Motley Crue song released in the last 30 years.”

    fess: “Dr Feelgood.”

    According to the web, it was released in 1989, so I’m sorry but you don’t progress to the next round.

    But well done for being able to think of any of their songs. I can’t, and I was once a metalhead.

  31. Asha @ Sunday, November 12, 2023 at 8:22 pm:

    “MacArthur:

    Hey, I can actually answer that one!

    Its called “Motherfucker of the Year”, and was released in the mid-to-late 2000s. I only know of it’s existence because it was included in a compilation of recently released rock/metal songs I downloaded back in the say, and it stuck in my memory thanks to being, well, a Motley Crue song that from the mid-to-late 2000s.

    It’s, er… It was not a very good song.”
    ===============

    Asha – well, f*** me! I’ve never heard of that one. Worth 3 minutes of my life to listen? I’m guessing not.

  32. Motley Crue only ever had 2 good songs imo. Home Sweet Home is a nice ballad and Shout at the Devil rocks. But they were the masters of Cock Rock.

  33. Wat Tyler: ‘Even D-List American celebrities visiting will make the local news here.”

    You’re being very kind to Motley Crue rating them as D-Listers. In the unlikely event that anyone associated with managing their tour reads PB, you might have scored yourself a backstage pass.

  35. Rex Douglas
    Wow that’s a bit humiliating for Broadbent.

    Broadbent is one of the few Libs left in Victoria after the 2022 election. He actually held on to his seat!
    But what has he done for them lately?

  36. Dr Doolittle:

    Sunday, November 12, 2023 at 1:54 pm

    [‘Mavis at 10.32 am

    Have a look at this 5 min video:

    https://www.portrait.gov.au/stories/the-hon-michael-kirby-ac-cmg

    Kirby is interviewing the artist who painted his portrait for the National Portrait Gallery, Ralph Heimans.

    Note the phrase about Kirby looking at the viewer, an analogy for him directly addressing readers of his reasons for judgment, by striving for clarity. His first big High Court case, Wik Peoples v Qld, was instructive, as he set out his reasons with great clarity, simplifying the complexity of a historic case.’]

    Thanks, DD. Heimans’ portrait of Kirby certainly captures him to a tee, and his judgments, as exampled by Wik, was in keeping with his rejection of strict textualism. A majority of the SCOTUS takes the view that the US Constitution, ratified in 1788, must be interpreted in such fashion, not taking into account, for instance, that flintlock muskets are no longer the firearm of choice for mass murderers, and that the British are not coming anymore.

  37. Broadbent is one of the few Libs left in Victoria after the 2022 election. He actually held on to his seat!
    But what has he done for them lately?

    I’ve been saying for years that the moderate wing of the Libs have done SFA either within or for the party. And each election this is the result: a chipping away at them to the point they are eventually nothing.

    IMO it’s far better to do what Archer is doing and standing up for the Liberal party position, staring down the protractors who want to take her out. At the very least you go down fighting.

  38. MacArthur:

    As far as I can remember – and it wasn’t a very memorable song – it was basically Motley Crue trying to ape the 2000s alt-metal/post-grunge sound that was in vogue then, and seemed a pretty manufactured and generic take on that style. I’m an unapologetic fan of that much-maligned genre, and I found it totally forgettable, the sort of thing that’s fine as background noise but that I would never, ever actively decide to listen to.

  39. meher:

    Would you be offended if we moved the Sydney PBers lunch to another date?

    And would you be able to attend another date if it weren’t 3rd Dec?

  40. Monash is one of those seats that looks like it should be more competitive than it is. The margin is not that large but has never really been eaten into like the city seats. There was a teal (Deb Leonard) who did alright but lacked funds and there were too many booths to man.

  44. ‘fess: I can’t make any other date but, no, I wouldn’t be offended if you were to move it. It just happened that I will be coming through Sydney that day and I noticed that you were thinking of it as a possible date for your lunch, so I asked about it.

    Obviously you Sydney folk need to hold it on the day that best suits you.  I was just a potential blow-in from Hobart.

  46. nath @ Sunday, November 12, 2023 at 8:46 pm:

    “Shogun, I’m guessing The Seekers is where you are most comfortable?”
    =============

    Nath, my mum was really into them. Then she discovered electronica – ie, ‘Popcorn’ by ‘Hot Butter’. Memories…

  48. The big problem of climate change in this part of SA isn’t rainfall – it is temperature. More precisely, number of days a year over 40. Many of the hills tree species won’t cope with that unless they are in very protected gullies, even then they will struggle. Some agriculture should cope, others not so much (like fruit in orchards as they stand).

    As for the mid north, it is already badly hit by what is most likely climate change. Even in Clare it is can be tough for any primary production that isn’t wine.

  49. Monash (under its old name of McMillan) was a marginal seat which regularly changed hands in the 1980s through to 2004, but it lost Morwell and Traralgon to Gippsland in the 2004 redistribution, and in any case the Latrobe Valley towns are not the Labor strongholds they once were (at either federal or state level) – Labor still wins most of the Moe booths but with 2PPs mostly in the 50s rather than 60s.

  50. Re Climate, If the climate gets warmer then there’ll be more evaporation and therefore, on average, more rain. The effect on atmospheric circulation is less clear. Some places will get wetter, others drier.

    In the Australian region, the belt of Westerlies seems to be retreating polewards, which is bad news for the wheat belt. On the other hand there might be more rainfall in what are now drier parts of Australia’s North and also East of the Dividing Range. Sydney Summers might be replaced by a wet season while Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth dry out. No one knows.

    The fact is, our agriculture and settlement patterns, like that of the rest of the world, are geared up to 19th-20th century climate patterns. A Riverina wheat farmer can’t readily decamp North and to grow rice. A Bangladeshi farmer can’t decamp to anywhere.

Comments Page 15 of 16
1 … 14 15 16

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *