Next week being budget week, we’re likely to see little in the way of polling beyond the usual Roy Morgan, followed by a deluge the week after as the main players to take the field to gauge the public’s response. For now, there’s the following:
• YouGov has published a further result from its April 19-23 survey showing 35% support for Australia recognising Palestine as an independent state with 27% opposed and 44% unsure, with Greens supporters the most enthusiastic and One Nation supporters the least.
• The Australian Electoral Commission, which hitherto offered only the second quarter as the time when the proposed redistributions for New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia would be published, is now saying “late May/early June”. I’ve also noticed for the first time that a redistribution process for the Northern Territory began in late February. With 81,170 voters presently enrolled in Lingiari and 72,748 in Solomon, this is likely to involve a transfer of voters in Palmerston from the latter to the former. This will be welcome for Labor, as the loss of this conservative-voting area will boost their 0.9% margin in Lingiari while reducing their 9.4% margin in Solomon.
• The Liberals have announced Brendan Small, managing director of a local cleaning products firm, as candidate for the New South Wales Central Coast seat of Dobell, held for Labor by Emma McBride on a margin of 6.5%.
• Weeks after I’d forgotten about it, an advisory from the AEC that they are about to archive their Cook by-election media feed prompted me to update my own results page with what are the definitive final results. Liberal candidate Simon Kennedy scored 62.7% of the primary vote, winning at the final count ahead of the Greens with 71.3%.
• The Nationals have preselected Brendan Moylan, a Moree solicitor, as their candidate for the New South Wales state by-election for Northern Tablelands, the date for which the government appears in no hurry to announce. The by-election will choose a successor to Nationals member Adam Marshall, who was re-elected last year with 71.6% of the primary vote and is abandoning state politics at the age of 39, with media reports suggesting he hopes to succeed Barnaby Joyce in New England.
British police said on Monday three men had been charged with assisting Hong Kong’s foreign intelligence service after authorities made a series of arrests across England.
London’s Metropolitan Police said a total of 11 people were detained earlier this month, nearly all of whom were arrested in the Yorkshire area in northern England.
The three men will appear in custody at Westminster Magistrates’ Court later on Monday. Seven men and one woman who were not charged were released from custody, police added.
“While these offences are concerning, I want to reassure the public that we do not believe there to be any wider threat to them,” Commander Dominic Murphy, Head of the Met’s Counter Terrorism Command, said in a statement.
The investigation is ongoing and the police did not provide further details on the charges.
The three men were charged under Britain’s National Security Act, which was passed last year and introduced new measures to target threats from foreign states.
The police said the charges were not linked to a separate investigation involving Russia, which was also conducted under the same law.
MelbourneMammothsays:
Monday, May 13, 2024 at 5:36 pm
Well an election held now with zero overall swing would still see swings of some margin either way depending on what group of seats an individual electorate belongs to. That will essentially determine Albanese’s fate in the upcoming election.
===================================================
So you are essentially saying a vote unchanged from last election. Could be bad news for the Albanese Government. Even though he won last time with that vote?. Sorry, i’m not buying what you are selling here.
”
Scepticsays:
Monday, May 13, 2024 at 3:05 pm
Just in case anyone thought the US was the home of free market capitalism rather than good old fashioned self interest imperialism…
The US is tightening the screws on China
Stephen BartholomeuszMay 13, 2024 — 11.59am
Joe Biden is about to almost quadruple the tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles which, at face value, is odd, given that the US only imports a relative handful of Chinese EVs.
The announcement of the increase in the tariff rate from 27.5 per cent (which includes a 2.5 per cent tariff on all imported vehicles) to 102.5 per cent is expected this week, driven by a mix of domestic politics, national security concerns and the ongoing trade war between the US and China.
So the US decides to punish China (& the planet) for their own decades of neglect on climate change & technology
”
The thing is when China did the same during Morrison period, we rightly condemned China.
Did Australia comment on this US tariff rise.
Vensays:
Monday, May 13, 2024 at 5:53 pm
”
The thing is when China did the same during Morrison period, we rightly condemned China.
Did Australia comment on this US tariff rise.
============================================
Do we often comment on tariffs that one country puts on another. When neither of the countries involved are us?.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/may/13/walter-sofronoff-act-watchdog-bruce-lehrmann-trial-report-leak-investigation
_________________________________
If it looks like a duck and waddles like a duck and quacks like a duck ……..
Boerwar
Monday, May 13, 2024 at 3:33 pm
———
Really have to laugh at the nonsense BW puts out.
He ignores the US slave trade where black Africans were kidnapped and forced to work in the cotton fields in the USA south. And many are still treated as 3rd class citizens
He ignores the killing of many millions by the US desire to protect their multinational fossil fuel companies all over the world. And the latest genocide by Israel using US weapons in Gaza.
Without continuing wars the US economy would fail.
And Australia’s treatment of First Nations people – cruelty, massacres, slave labor at least to the mid 1960’s, from arrival of the First Fleet and still happening during the Albanese government today through neglect.
Ignorance is no barrier for BW when he posts. Embarrassing.
I suggest you start reading US and Australian early history. You will learn some facts.
”
Entropysays:
Monday, May 13, 2024 at 6:07 pm
Vensays:
Monday, May 13, 2024 at 5:53 pm
”
The thing is when China did the same during Morrison period, we rightly condemned China.
Did Australia comment on this US tariff rise.
============================================
Do we often comment on tariffs that one country puts on another. When neither of the countries involved are us?.
”
Maybe they do, maybe they don’t. I honestly don’t know.
But the thing is China is different. Why?
1. Australia suffered because of Chinese tariffs on Australia
2. USA benefitted from those tariffs because USA was able to sell their similar products, which they could not earlier due to higher quality of Australian products.
3. What USA is telling the world is that a country, that too a powerful country, can do whatever it wants to either punish other country or benefit itself, which is exactly what China did to Australia and US did not come to Australia’s rescue. Hence, US is actually endorsing what China did.
You may say US is teaching China a lesson. Then what is point of World trade rules?
Biden could be telling allies “ssshhh guys I am doing this to win election against Trump by winning states like Michigan”
Remember, The United States was a leading force in establishing the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1995.
Democratic countries are supposed to be the good guys and countries like Russia, China, Iran and North Korea are supposed to be bad/ evil guys.
If these bad guys can lower our standards and values of theirs, then they succeeded in their endeavour isn’t it?
Here we go. Expect Dutton to seize on this one.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/third-boat-arrival-detected-in-a-week-but-none-taken-to-nauru-20240513-p5jd8m.html
It’s correct that Sofronoff is investigated. He breached his duties to the court and legal profession. It’s amazing that he thought he’d get away with his behaviour.
This is what IMF said about China and USA regarding Trade
IMF
Free trade is taking a back seat to powerful nations’ politics, hurting developing economies
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2023/06/superpowers-are-forsaking-free-trade-ngaire-woods
“The great powers that built and sustained the free trade system now have other priorities. This puts most emerging market and developing economies in a difficult position. The United States and China are changing the system and making other countries choose sides in a growing geostrategic rivalry. The best strategy for other countries might well be nonalignment—not just to protect their own interests, but also to restrain the superpowers.
The importance of safeguarding an open and inclusive multilateral trade system is underlined in a recent World Trade Organization (WTO) report, which argues that open trade (as opposed to all countries protecting their own producers and products) is the best way to cushion the enormous and growing costs of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The report highlights that, despite the war, global trade continued to increase in 2022, as did trade in global supply chains (which grew 4 percent year over year in the second quarter of 2022). Although experts (writing in Nature) initially predicted that the war would drive up food prices and cause millions to go hungry, global markets have in fact stabilized prices (see the food price index of the Food and Agriculture Organization).
The problem is that the great powers are turning away from the free trade system they created. Their priorities are being reordered by global security concerns and sharpening domestic political and economic demands. And for developing and emerging market economies the global trading system is increasingly reshaped by these priorities.”
You know I wonder why exactly these certain “Multiple Government sources” kept their mouths tightly shut during Morrison’s “on-water matters” era but are happy to sing like canaries these days.
Kirsdarke @ #1011 Monday, May 13th, 2024 – 6:49 pm
It’s definitely interesting.
The Liberal boosters need to lift their game. Nobody is listening to their half baked criticisms.
Case in point, Angus Taylor yesterday.
On the eve of another Budget surplus, and forecast falling inflation – we have Morgan…
The Albanese Labor Government has retained the lead for the fourth week in a row with support on 52% (unchanged) ahead of the Coalition on 48% (unchanged) on a two-party preferred basis before Treasurer Jim Chalmers delivers this week’s pre-election Federal Budget.
If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be re-elected with a slim majority as they have now, the latest Roy Morgan survey shows.
Although the overall two-party preferred result was unchanged, primary support for the ALP increased 2% to 32% this week but is still well behind the Coalition, unchanged on 37%.
Looking at the minor parties, support for the Greens increased 0.5% to 13.5% and support for One Nation was down 0.5% to 5.5%. Support for Independents was down 1% to 7.5% and support for Other Parties was down 1% to 4.5%.
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,654 Australian electors from May 6-12, 2024. When comparing different polls it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/alp-maintains-election-winning-lead-over-coalition-for-a-fourth-straight-week-before-federal-budget-is-delivered-alp-52-cf-l-np-48
Sofronoff should be sanctioned for gross stupidity – believing undertakings from the SmearStralian.
The ACT’s integrity watchdog will investigate whether Walter Sofronoff acted corruptly by leaking his final report on the Bruce Lehrmann trial to select journalists ahead of its official release.
On Monday, a statement confirmed the ACT integrity commissioner, Michael Adams, would launch an investigation “into the impugned conduct as [the commissioner] suspects, on reasonable grounds, that Mr Sofronoff’s conduct may constitute corrupt conduct”.
In August 2023 the ACT chief minister, Andrew Barr, accused Sofronoff of breaching “good faith” obligations after the former Queensland judge leaked his own report to an ABC journalist and The Australian newspaper columnist, Janet Albrechtsen. The report was given under an agreement the outlets would not publish until Barr officially released it.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/may/13/walter-sofronoff-act-watchdog-bruce-lehrmann-trial-report-leak-investigation
Entropy says:
Monday, May 13, 2024 at 5:12 pm
Labor primary up 2%, Greens up 0.5%, ONP down 0.5% and LNP steady. Yet the 2PP 52:48 split remains the same. These respondent allocated preferences do jump around a bit, unlike the 2PP in this case.
=================================================================
Entropy – yes. I understand fully why WB disregards Morgan. Respondent allocated preferences really don’t mean much when we know the reality is that voters preference in a particular way in the privacy of the ballot box. I like Morgan because of their sample size, but most posters have a slight disregard for Morgan.
Anyway, given this poll has dropped 24 hrs before the budget, I think you can take it’s results straight to the shredder. We’re also slightly overdue for a Freshwater Strategy poll, but like I said last week, I reckon Freshwater will hold off until post Budget.
We should have a Newspoll on Sunday 19-May, but one thing is that their sample period will include a lot of days “pre budget”. They usually stop polling at around 5PM Thursday, collate Friday and then release on Sunday around 9.40 Pm. Newspoll may hold off a day or so, we’ll see.
There will be quite a few polls coming up the next fortnight – they’re all waiting.
Look forward to tomorrow night’s post-Budget “PB assessment”. The main players should be available, and we should have consensus by around 11PM on whether the Budget is …
1. Good or Bad
2. Is this an election Budget, or one more to go. (ie election in 2024 or 2025)
Confessions @ #1012 Monday, May 13th, 2024 – 6:53 pm
Me three.
Clearly there’s some leaking going on and one has to wonder if this is more than smugglers testing the waters so to speak.
The only change has been the TPVs from memory and that shouldn’t have been a factor anyway according to reports when they were removed.
Border Force was the creation of the former incompetent Federal lib/nats government , with the former incompetent Home Affairs minister Peter Dutton being in charge
Morrison and his cronies knew the 2022 federal election was lost , so they would have set political traps for the incoming federal Labor government
the election day Boat stunt by Morrison and the lib/nats propaganda media , was just a sample of what the political trap was
But Australia is no longer in the 2010- 2013 era
Hence why it will backfire on the federal lib/nats and thier propaganda media units
Why fusion reactor is 30 years away, and always will be.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JurplDfPi3U
Entropysays:
Monday, May 13, 2024 at 5:53 pm
MelbourneMammothsays:
Monday, May 13, 2024 at 5:36 pm
Well an election held now with zero overall swing would still see swings of some margin either way depending on what group of seats an individual electorate belongs to. That will essentially determine Albanese’s fate in the upcoming election.
===================================================
So you are essentially saying a vote unchanged from last election. Could be bad news for the Albanese Government. Even though he won last time with that vote?. Sorry, i’m not buying what you are selling here.
====================================================================
I think what MM is referring to is the local swings around the country.
If there is an anti ALP swing in WA (as constantly reported by Pied Piper, but not backed up by the polls on WB’s poll data tab), then that will be enough to tip the Fed ALP into minority.
There is an anti-ALP swing in QLD at the moment, but all this will serve to do is bolster the LNP margins in QLD. ie: minimal Federal implications. (Similar to having a swing to the ALP in the A.C.T)
No real evidence of any anti ALP swing in Vic or NSW (the main players).
Gosh, if we are waiting on the outcome of a election results in the NT (or Cocos Islands), we’ll all be up for a long night. Would be like waiting on the Alaska booths for the US president.
nadia88 says:
Monday, May 13, 2024 at 8:14 pm
Entropysays:
Monday, May 13, 2024 at 5:53 pm
I think what MM is referring to is the local swings around the country.
If there is an anti ALP swing in WA (as constantly reported by Pied Piper, but not backed up by the polls on WB’s poll data tab), then that will be enough to tip the Fed ALP into minority.
———————————————
Dont think WA will change , even if there was 1 or 2 seats , Labor will likely gain enough seats elsewhere to cover those loses, either increased or maintain the current majority
‘Irene says:
Monday, May 13, 2024 at 6:18 pm
Boerwar
Monday, May 13, 2024 at 3:33 pm
———
Really have to laugh at the nonsense BW puts out.
He ignores the US slave trade where black Africans were kidnapped and forced to work in the cotton fields in the USA south. And many are still treated as 3rd class citizens
He ignores the killing of many millions by the US desire to protect their multinational fossil fuel companies all over the world. And the latest genocide by Israel using US weapons in Gaza.
Without continuing wars the US economy would fail.
And Australia’s treatment of First Nations people – cruelty, massacres, slave labor at least to the mid 1960’s, from arrival of the First Fleet and still happening during the Albanese government today through neglect.
Ignorance is no barrier for BW when he posts. Embarrassing.
I suggest you start reading US and Australian early history. You will learn some facts.’
———————–
Irene just loves that nice man Xi, all those loving and caring Chicommies, and all their works.
And Irene does nothing else but put up posts that are scathing of the West.
One wonders.
Frednk
Do they come with their own auroras?
This one, the March one, and we’re off to the Neddies before the middle of 2025.
‘Ven says:
Monday, May 13, 2024 at 6:44 pm
This is what IMF said about China and USA regarding Trade
IMF
Free trade is taking a back seat to powerful nations’ politics, hurting developing economies
…’
—————-
China is happy that the West’s ships are being attacked on the Red Sea while their ships get free passage. China was happy to slap a unilateral $20 billion a year trade stopper on Australia.
The thing which gets forgotten a bit in discussion of Queensland is that the LNP won 54-46 there in 2022, so Labor doesn’t have to get a majority of the 2PP vote there to gain seats (that said, there’s not a lot of low-hanging fruit with Dickson the only LNP seat on a margin under 3%).
Just watching a tearjerker about Sunak’s Rwanda project on 7.30 I thought, & not for the first time, about the differences between the Oz media’s treatments of boat people coming to Australia & those going to any other country.
nadia88says:
Monday, May 13, 2024 at 8:14 pm
Entropysays:
Monday, May 13, 2024 at 5:53 pm
MelbourneMammothsays:
Monday, May 13, 2024 at 5:36 pm
Well an election held now with zero overall swing would still see swings of some margin either way depending on what group of seats an individual electorate belongs to. That will essentially determine Albanese’s fate in the upcoming election.
===================================================
So you are essentially saying a vote unchanged from last election. Could be bad news for the Albanese Government. Even though he won last time with that vote?. Sorry, i’m not buying what you are selling here.
====================================================================
I think what MM is referring to is the local swings around the country.
If there is an anti ALP swing in WA (as constantly reported by Pied Piper, but not backed up by the polls on WB’s poll data tab), then that will be enough to tip the Fed ALP into minority.
There is an anti-ALP swing in QLD at the moment, but all this will serve to do is bolster the LNP margins in QLD. ie: minimal Federal implications. (Similar to having a swing to the ALP in the A.C.T)
No real evidence of any anti ALP swing in Vic or NSW (the main players).
Gosh, if we are waiting on the outcome of a election results in the NT (or Cocos Islands), we’ll all be up for a long night. Would be like waiting on the Alaska booths for the US president.
======================================================
If the 2PP remains unchanged. A local swing one way is obviously balanced out somewhere else. Yes certain areas can deliver more seats than others on occasion. For instance a uniform 2.0% swing to Labor in Victoria would deliver them 3 seats but if it occurred in NSW instead none. While a uniform swing to the LNP in NSW of 2.0% would deliver them 2 seats but none in Victoria (though Higgins would be on a knife edge). Overall what normally happens is these gains and losses tend to balance out somewhat if the 2PP remains unchanged overall.
Note: Comparing to 2022 results, not including subsequent by election results and margins. So basically margins shown in link below.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-election_pendulum_for_the_2022_Australian_federal_election
Bit of levity.
https://theshovel.com.au/2024/05/13/dutton-stress-leave-aurora-rainbow-morning-tea/
BT says:
Monday, May 13, 2024 at 8:54 pm
The thing which gets forgotten a bit in discussion of Queensland is that the LNP won 54-46 there in 2022, so Labor doesn’t have to get a majority of the 2PP vote there to gain seats (that said, there’s not a lot of low-hanging fruit with Dickson the only LNP seat on a margin under 3%).
=========================================================
And the ALP ended up with a 46-54 split, after a 4.4% swing to them. Expect the tide to go back out for the A.L.P. in Qld, not further in (I refer to the 15 & 29% swings in two recent by-elections, albeit state). These are “death-zone” figures. The QLD state election might settle things, but regardless, any swing to the LNP in QLD will only solidify the LNP seats in QLD (similar to a swing to the ALP in the A.C.T.) Not important as it means nothing federally.
W.A. will be important next Federal election, as will the western suburbs of Sydney (ie west of westconnex). This area of outer Sydney usually determines who runs the country each election.
”
Boerwarsays:
Monday, May 13, 2024 at 8:49 pm
‘Ven says:
Monday, May 13, 2024 at 6:44 pm
This is what IMF said about China and USA regarding Trade
IMF
Free trade is taking a back seat to powerful nations’ politics, hurting developing economies
…’
—————-
China is happy that the West’s ships are being attacked on the Red Sea while their ships get free passage. China was happy to slap a unilateral $20 billion a year trade stopper on Australia.
”
Exactly. Yet China is a monster and US is the good guy for following the same policy.
There’s something of a political enigma in just exactly what Federal Labor is doing so wrong in Queensland that makes them hate them so much, yet still they have mostly returned Labor state governments since 1989, with of course the exception of the 2012 state election.
How does Hong Kong have its own foreign intelligence service?
Bystander
Unless Entropy and Mostly Interested are on the Financial Advisors register you should tread carefully.
No Ven, America is not attacking free nation states with its navy, like China’s PLA is. America is not getting free passage in the Red Sea, China is. America is a democracy, China isn’t. America isn’t seeking to forcefully expand its borders, maritime and land, China is. America is not actively repressing populations within its borders and jailing them indefinitely, China is. So why all the hating on America and and ignoring what China is up to, Ven?
Advice is only worth what you pay for it.
The quality of advice doesn’t improve the more you pay for it. Sometimes the best advice is free. 🙂
Sorry for troubling you but i am trying to make sense of the whole mess in the Levant.
Sahih Muslim 1456 a said:
Chapter: It is permissible to have intercourse with a female captive after it is established that she is not pregnant, and if she has a husband, then her marriage is annulled when she is captured.
Abu Sa’id al-Khudri (Allah her pleased with him) reported that at the Battle of Hanain Allah’s Messenger (ﷺ) sent an army to Autas and encountered the enemy and fought with them. Having overcome them and taken them captives, the Companions of Allah’s Messenger (may peace te upon him) seemed to refrain from having intercourse with captive women because of their husbands being polytheists. Then Allah, Most High, sent down regarding that:
” And women already married, except those whom your right hands possess (iv. 24)” (i. e. they were lawful for them when their ‘Idda period came to an end).
This would be one of the Hadiths detailing what it means that intercourse with a married women is unlawful unless it’s from among the women “your right hand possesses”. Your slaves. If you capture a woman, her marriage is annulled and you can make her your sex slave even if she was married. The Quran makes repeated references to wives AND those “whom your right hand posseses” as two categories of women that are lawful for intercourse.
Hamas can make an Islamic justification for raping of slaves.
So, yeah. Westernised mosques and Muslims do away with this teaching, but at that point, they’re throwing out the Hadith, the sira, and the fiqh. And Hamas can accuse any Muslims condemning them as being Westernised.
New thread.
https://x.com/dougcameron51/status/1791446495247651216?s=61&t=uOUOuQOvbsFUiiFQcfJvhQ, I’d guess centrist, blue Libs lite ‘Tel Aviv … Albo’ is not going to like what the former senator has had to say
Cease fire now.
Return to UN mandates of Palestine and Transjordan borders.
Court.
Reparations.
Airbridge Zionists to places that might like them …, may be get Elon Musk involved.
BDS, the Zionist settlers’ Tel Aviv Apartheid regime!