The fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor steady on 31%, the Coalition down a point to 34%, the Greens up two to 13% and One Nation down two to 7%, with undecided up three to 7%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has the Coalition maintaining a narrow lead of 47% (down two) to 46% (down one), although these respondent-allocated numbers appear to flatter them — excluding the undecided from the primary votes and applying preference flows from 2022, I get 52.5-47.5 to Labor. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1150.
Further questions relate to expectations for next week’s federal budget, which are not high; concern about crime and safety, including a finding that 59% favour a “focus on enforcement measures” against 41% for the alternative of a “focus on preventative measures”. Strong support was recorded for every one of a range of measures to address family violence and improve safety online, and 70% favoured the eSafety Commissioner’s view that social media platforms needed to remove “dangerous content” over 30% for a view attributed to Elon Musk that doing so was “an attempt to censor the internet and restrict free speech”.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor’s lead steady at 52-48, though here it seems to be Labor getting the better end of respondent-allocated preferences: on the primary vote, Labor was down one-and-a-half points to 30%, the Coalition was up half to 37%, the Greens were down one to 13% and One Nation was up half to 6%. Based on 2022 preferences, this comes out to around 51-49 in Labor’s favour. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1666.
Nine Newspapers reports quarterly state-level and demographic aggregates from the Resolve Strategic polls from February through to April, the interest of which is limited by the fact that the pollster published breakdowns for the three largest states with the monthly polls. However, we do learn that the poll has Labor at 32% of the primary vote in Western Australia, which compares with 34% for the December quarter and 36.9% at the 2022 election. I hope to be able to provide the remainder of this result later today (UPDATE: The Coalition is on 35%, compared with 34.8% at the election, the Greens 13%, compared with 12.5%, and One Nation 6%, compared with 4.0%). The sample here was a modest 352, with a duly wide margin of error.
Finally, the results of Saturday’s Legislative Council elections in Tasmania were resolved yesterday, with the Greens gaining their first ever seat in the chamber following the retirement of an independent incumbent in the seat of Hobart; Labor losing its northern neighbour Elwick to an independent; and the Liberals retaining the seat of Prosser beyond Hobart’s outskirts. Read all about it at the dedicated post.
The Irish entry for Eurovision is not to be missed
shellbell
Australia’s entry disappeared without a trace. Is anything better than nothing?
Herald Sun 09/05
Jacinta Allan kept her eyes down and her mouth firmly shut as she ushered Anthony Albanese from the site of the North East Link, leaving the puzzled press pack asking: why the rush?
_____________________
For accepting $3.25b for a project that has already blown out by $10b, I would be keeping my eyes down and my mouth shut as well.
BW, do you think that perhaps the hyper focus on Israeli divestment is because… of the aforementioned lack of action by the international community?
Ask yourself this; why do students protest about the environment; is it because they think the government is doing enough, or not enough.
Theres your answer…
Shellbell, is that the one that looks like the outside of the hellfire club at 4am?
I think the sun is setting on Oz participation.
Bluebaggers looking the goods against the Dees.
Is this the year that Pig’s Arses will Fly?
Boerwar @ #654 Thursday, May 9th, 2024 – 8:33 pm
Because the flags on the tanks are Israeli & those on the tents Palestinian. Youth seldom sides with manifest power – it represents their parent’s guilt.
“ I think the sun is setting on Oz participation.”
Inshallah.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #640 Thursday, May 9th, 2024 – 8:11 pm
It’s no longer a binary option, is it?.
But perhaps this is what really worries you Labor partisans?
Lordbain @ #648 Thursday, May 9th, 2024 – 8:24 pm
But … but … that would be anti-semetic!
Pied pipersays:
Thursday, May 9, 2024 at 5:22 pm
Net contribution by each state to the federation per capita.Wa budget paper.
WA $12,450
Nsw $826
VIC -minus $509
Sa -minus $7346
Qld – minus $2284
Tas – minus $11,836
NT -minus 24,361.
=====================================
You’re missing the A.C.T. – bet that’s in six figures.
In the 1980s, when student protestors called on universities to divest from apartheid South Africa, it would not have been a strong argument if a pompous curmudgeonly fellow had squawked, “If the protestors don’t simultaneously protest against every other oppressive government in the world they must be racist against Africaners.”
Boerwarsays:
Thursday, May 9, 2024 at 8:40 pm
Assad has 20 times the blood on his hands that Netanyahu has.
Silence from the university demonstrators.
Why?
===============================================
Isn’t Assad already sanctioned though. His main backer Russia certainly is. The USA even has a base in Syria. Turkey also controls some of it too. What would University protesters be asking for exactly as far as Syria is concerned though?.
Entropy says:
Thursday, May 9, 2024 at 8:59 pm
Boerwarsays:
Thursday, May 9, 2024 at 8:40 pm
Assad has 20 times the blood on his hands that Netanyahu has.
Silence from the university demonstrators.
Why?
===============================================
Isn’t Assad already sanctioned though. His main backer Russia certainly is. The USA even has a base in Syria. Turkey also controls some of it too. What would University protesters be asking for exactly as far as Syria is concerned though?
===============================
The explanations for why Israel and not China have been particularly pertinent, IMO.
NSW the non-leaning state
SK
She is a trained ballerina but not the kind my mother in law sees on her Opera House subscription
So tell me, assuming you didn’t break the law and render an informal vote, P1: who was it? Who got your preference? Constance or Phillips?
Because, actually, it still IS a binary choice most of the time. Knock yourself out and vote for an independent or minor party, but 9 times out of 10, it’s the choice between LNP and Labor that counts. What with compulsory preferential voting and all. …
We criticise and impose sanctions against dictatoships, authoritarian governments
If any democratic country in the world is criticised then Israel government also can be criticised.
When India did successful Nuclear test in 1997 against express warnings of Clinton administration, all the Western countries imposed sanctions against India and Indian government but no such sanctions were imposed against Pakistan government, which did successful Nuclear test after a couple of months ( but that is another story)
Disinvestment in Israel industries is a small gesture by comparison to pacify US University students, which is really impacting Biden reelection
With single member electorates, whichever of the two major parties you preference higher, even if it’s second last and last, is what matters in the great majority of seats. Even the current record cross-bench holds just 12% of House of Representative seats.
Just doing a bit of trawling through ye olde chronicles and it turns out that the dastardly Duke of York and his Russian rascals burned down some of the houses in my home villages while trudging through the mud.
One of the prongs of the repeated assault was along the dunes. In the blow outs in the swales can be seen musket balls, flattened on one side interspersed with lots and lots of rusting bits of AA shrapnel.
And it also turns out that when they did some repairs to the floor of the family home they found burnt timbers.
I dare say the university students of the day would have been calling for divestment from Perfidious Albion.
One of the cannabis MPs has quit the party and is now an WA upper house independent.
Why? Err offshore wind farms.Breaking in west oz tonight.
It’s possible the Tories are in a bit of a problem…. Left with 13 seats!!!
New YouGov poll gives Labour a 30 point lead.
LAB: 48 (+4)
CON: 18 (=)
LD: 9 (-1)
REFUK: 13 (-2)
GRN: 7 (-1)
If repeated at a general election, the Conservative Party would be forecast to lose all but thirteen (13) of their seats in the House of Commons.
Drug shortages in England are now at such critical levels that patients are at risk of immediate harm and even death, pharmacists have warned.
The situation is so serious that pharmacists increasingly have to issue “owings” to patients – telling someone that only part of their prescription can be dispensed and asking them to come back for the rest of it later, once the pharmacist has sourced the remainder.
Hundreds of different drugs have become hard or impossible to obtain, according to Community Pharmacy England (CPE), which published the report. Widespread and often long-lasting shortages posed “immediate risks to patient health and wellbeing” and caused distress, it said.
“The medicine supply challenges being faced by community pharmacies and their patients are beyond critical,” said Janet Morrison, CPE’s chief executive. “Patients with a wide range of clinical and therapeutic needs are being affected on a daily basis and this is going far beyond inconvenience, leading to frustration, anxiety and affecting their health.
Pharmacists are finding themselves on the receiving end of abuse and hostility from patients who are frustrated and angered by not being able to get the drugs they have been prescribed.
Experts said global supply and manufacturing problems were contributing to drugs being unavailable. But, Morrison added: “Low prices of medicines has made the UK a less attractive market for manufacturers and this is contributing to the reduction in supply chain resilience.”
In a major report last month the Nuffield Trust thinktank warned that drug shortages had become a “new normal” and were being worsened by Brexit.
”
Boerwarsays:
Thursday, May 9, 2024 at 9:17 pm
Despite a huge amount of circumlocution, the question remains.
Why are university protestors target one single country out of all the possible targets?
Is Israel the worst player in the world?
Not by a long shot.
So why are the demonstrators targeting Israel?
”
Why can’t the demonstrators target Israel? Is it because to target Israeli government is anti-Semitic? Isn’t it a democratic country? Democratic countries have been targeted in past as I explained in earlier post.
Why is criticising Israel off limits?
I honestly believe that any of the University students are browsing PB. I don’t think any parents of those students, who may read PB will be influence their kids one way or another.
Rikalisays:
Thursday, May 9, 2024 at 9:19 pm
It’s possible the Tories are in a bit of a problem…. Left with 13 seats!!!
New YouGov poll gives Labour a 30 point lead.
LAB: 48 (+4)
CON: 18 (=)
LD: 9 (-1)
REFUK: 13 (-2)
GRN: 7 (-1)
====================================================
That is one big gap and Reform went backwards too. Haven’t seen a gap this big between LAB and CON since the brief reign of Liz of 49 days (Truss).
Steve777says:
Thursday, May 9, 2024 at 9:13 pm
With single member electorates, whichever of the two major parties you preference higher, even if it’s second last and last, is what matters in the great majority of seats. Even the current record cross-bench holds just 12% of House of Representative seats.
===========================================================================
Wouldn’t be surprised in the future, say 2030’s, if the ALP & LNP join forces to amend the Electoral Act to re-introduce FTTP. The cross bench is increasing election after election and eventually will become a threat to the two majors ever holding majority status in the lower house. FTTP will eliminate most lower house Indies & Greens (except Bandt). The LNP wouldn’t want to share gov’t with loonies, and the ALP have already experienced this after 2010, and I can’t imagine they’d repeat it again. Look at Tas ALP last month – gave up the opportunity rather than deal with the Greens.
Could be on the cards down the track.
The tories in the UK are clearly going to be flogged!
Open Q to posters.
Will Mr Sunak call an election before the US election, or afterwards.
I understand time runs out for him on 28-Jan-2025
How long does it take to build a nuclear reactor? We ask France
https://reneweconomy-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/reneweconomy.com.au/how-long-does-it-take-to-build-a-nuclear-reactor-we-ask-france/amp/?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQGsAEggAID#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17152533889282&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Freneweconomy.com.au%2Fhow-long-does-it-take-to-build-a-nuclear-reactor-we-ask-france%2F
“A short answer to this question might be, it depends who you ask. Ask Opposition leader Peter Dutton, for instance, and he will tell you a federal Coalition government under his leadership could have a nuclear power plant up and running in Australia within a decade.
Ask the highly experienced French state-owned nuclear power giant EDF, which manages 56 reactors in the world’s most nuclear dependent country, and you would get rather a different answer.
Bloomberg reports that EDF this week got regulatory approval to start up its newest nuclear reactor, the 1.6GW Flamanville plant in France’s north west – a milestone that is 12 years behind schedule and more than four times over budget, thanks to a range of construction problems including concrete weakness and faulty pipe welds.”
@nadia88 at 9:32pm
I doubt there’ll be a double force to such a notion, but Peter Dutton is on the record in stating that he’d like to at least introduce optional preferential voting as opposed to the current system of full preferential voting in order to bring some advantage to the Coalition in which Greens voters that hate Labor can both have their vote count and not have to be brought into the responsibility of directing their preferences to either side.
”
nadia88says:
Thursday, May 9, 2024 at 9:32 pm
Steve777says:
Thursday, May 9, 2024 at 9:13 pm
With single member electorates, whichever of the two major parties you preference higher, even if it’s second last and last, is what matters in the great majority of seats. Even the current record cross-bench holds just 12% of House of Representative seats.
===========================================================================
Wouldn’t be surprised in the future, say 2030’s, if the ALP & LNP join forces to amend the Electoral Act to re-introduce FTTP. The cross bench is increasing election after election and eventually will become a threat to the two majors ever holding majority status in the lower house. FTTP will eliminate most lower house Indies & Greens (except Bandt). The LNP wouldn’t want to share gov’t with loonies, and the ALP have already experienced this after 2010, and I can’t imagine they’d repeat it again. Look at Tas ALP last month – gave up the opportunity rather than deal with the Greens.
Could be on the cards down the track.
”
Quite possible nadia.
The UK Gov’t holds negative net approval ratings on every policy issue prompted EXCEPT Coronavirus. UK Gov’t Policy Approval Ratings (5 May): Via Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Coronavirus +1%
Defence -9%
Foreign policy -12%
Education -16%
Economy -22%
Crime -26%
Housing -27%
Immigration -33%
NHS -34%
I reckon that would be a suicide note for Labor, Nadia.
Populist independents come and go (so ultimately the prevailing Conservative Party should be ok) but the Greens are a movement. Whilst it is unlikely IMO they will ever amount to even 20% of the national vote, but even at 12%, in a FPTP system that split would doom Labor.
Ironically, preferential voting was invented to round up the disparate ‘anti-Labor’ vote, but with the Greens, it’s the only thing keeping us in the game. Even ‘optional preferential voting’ is a not great outcome for Labor (an own goal from the vaults of the late 1970s for NSW Labor).
Daily Kos, which criticised many authoritarian things done by US Governments (federal or state) and who are at forefront of abortion and Biden re-election battle, are totally silent when it comes to US University students protests.
They behaved/ behave as if no such thing has happened.
Boerwarsays:
Thursday, May 9, 2024 at 9:15 pm
Just doing a bit of trawling through ye olde chronicles and it turns out that the dastardly Duke of York and his Russian rascals burned down some of the houses in my home villages while trudging through the mud.
==================================================
Couldn’t let the French get them.
It is not anti-semitic to suggest that Israel has not always been and is not now a model global citizen. That it has committed and is now committing war crimes. That while a vigorous response was required to the October 7 atrocities, that Israel’s response has been utterly disproportionate with flagrant disregard to civilian lives. They consider themselves to be one of the good guys. So are they judged.
Dana Milbank of The Washington Post lauding the ability of Stormy Daniels to give the shoe salesman a taste of his own medicine.
“For nearly a decade, Trump has been the nation’s main chaos agent: He causes the mayhem, and the rest of us have to react, adjust, adapt and try to stay calm. But for one day, somebody else was causing the chaos, and Trump and his lawyers were the ones who had to react and adapt. They had to ride out Stormy’s storm.
She was a worthy adversary. Daniels attacked her target with the very blend of vulgar accusations and insinuations without evidence that Trump routinely uses on others. In effect, she pulled a Trump on Trump. She was furious, out of control and uninhibited by what even prosecutor Susan Hoffinger, out of the jury’s hearing, referred to as her witness’s “credibility issues.” Trump, glowering from the defense table, tasted his own bitter medicine. […]
Trump’s lawyers howled about how unfair it was to see their client, a once and perhaps future president, treated so rudely. “We are talking about somebody who’s going to go out and campaign this afternoon,” Todd Blanche said in arguing for a mistrial because of the “extraordinarily prejudicial” testimony intended only “to embarrass” his client and “to inflame the jury.”
Imagine somebody saying things only to embarrass and inflame!”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/05/08/stormy-daniels-donald-trump-hush-money/
Shellbell
The Irish media think Bambi Thug is a winner.
This might not be welcome, RTÉ was nearly bankrupted when Ireland won and they had to host 4 years out of 5 in the 90s.
(But it did lead to a very funny episode of Father Ted)
https://youtu.be/jzYzVMcgWhg?si=Pc2W2ycDlgdOouhE
Entropy,
In your attempt to explain what happens to the Carbon dioxide emissions from fertiliser production you don’t seem to have accounted for the Carbon which is incorporated by the plants to which the fertiliser has been applied. Pretty much the whole point of fertiliser really.
Soooooo……Player One and Lordbain agree with me and the 6 Labor backbenchers that we need a gas supply while we make the transition from fossil fuels to Renewables? Good-o. 😀
So does rest of the world. Just sayin’. And it gives us leverage as a result with the rest of the world when it comes to that transition. As Climate Council Head of Research, Dr Simon Bradshaw says in an article on the weather in the Sydney Morning Herald today.
Labor isn’t going to sign up to introducing first past the post, it is not in their interests or other left leaning parties. Sure their vote is increasingly being splintered to the Greens and maybe the teals but that is only more reason for Labor to seek to retain preferential voting.
If the ALP is Stu pod enough to ever sign up to FPTP it would be the last nail in their coffin.
They would deserve the oblivion wrought upon themselves.
C@tmommasays:
Thursday, May 9, 2024 at 10:54 pm
Entropy,
In your attempt to explain what happens to the Carbon dioxide emissions from fertiliser production you don’t seem to have accounted for the Carbon which is incorporated by the plants to which the fertiliser has been applied. Pretty much the whole point of fertiliser really.
=====================================================
Plants are carbon neutral. All the carbon they take in gets released when they die or are eaten. Unless they form peat in a swamp and head down the path of becoming oil or coal. Obviously Forests hold lots of carbon. We don’t apply fertiliser to forests though. Most fertiliser goes on crops which we eat and release the carbon from quite quickly.
New thread.
https://theunaustralian.net/2024/05/09/dutton-furious-that-cumberland-council-stole-his-election-ban-plan/
… here’s to freedom from not freedumb of religion.
nadia
It’s colder damper and and more miserable than usual in the UK by Nov 20, and the only age group left who perhaps favour the Tories are very old, so Sunak would be suppressing his own vote to leave it till after the US election. Still he’s terrible at politics so who knows, maybe he will go long and have a Xmas election campaign, hoping a gift from the gods will turn up
TPOF says
There are three solutions. Two possible; one impossible. An Israeli state from the river to the sea or a genuine two state solution. The third, impossible, one is a Palestinian state from the river to the sea. If it comes to the sole binary of committing genocide or else submitting to it I cannot imagine the Israelis would be any more in favour of submitting to genocide than the Palestinians.
**************************************
There is a another “solution”, a single democratic state in Israel/Palestine with equal rights for all inhabitants.
This is the option put forward by Ian Luste in “Paradigm Lost: From Two-State Solution to One-State Reality”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradigm_Lost
He concludes that it will probably take decades to establish and is not guaranteed
Also a recent interesting Rear Vision podcast on the ABC –
https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/rearvision/rear-vision/103744386
Scott you are king, and are Queen