There’s quite a bit going on in Bludgerdom at the moment, so before we proceed, some plugs for the posts below this one:
• First and foremost, the site’s thirty-seventh bi-monthly donation drive is in progress, so if you’ve ever felt this corner of cyberspace was deserving of support, there is no time like the present.
• There is a guest post from Adrian Beaumont covering today’s British local elections and various other items of news from what passes for the democratic world these days.
• I have a post up on tomorrow’s Tasmanian periodic Legislative Council elections (or to be precise, two periodic elections and one by-election), which aren’t always interesting but are this year, as the post seeks to explain.
• Still another new post looks at a New South Wales state poll that as far as I can tell has gone unreported by the paper that commissioned it.
On with the show:
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor with an unchanged two-party lead of 52-48, from primary votes of Labor 31.5% (up one), Coalition 36.5% (up one), Greens 14% (down two) and One Nation 5.5% (steady). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1719.
• As intimated by earlier reports, Labor has chosen Lisa Darmanin, public sector branch secretary of the Australian Services Union, to fill the Victorian Senate vacancy created by the death in February of Linda White, who shared Darmanian’s background in the union.
• The Canberra Times reports a Liberal preselection to choose its Australian Capital Territory Senate candidate was won by Jacob Vadakkedathu, director of a management consultancy. Vadakkedathu prevailed in the final round over Kasey Lam-Evans by 163 votes to 121, after former ministerial adviser Jerry Nockles and former territory parliamentarian Giulia Jones dropped out in earlier rounds.
• The Liberals have confirmed former Liberal member Nicolle Flint’s comeback bid in the Adelaide seat of Boothby, which she held from 2016 until she stood aside at the 2022 election, at which it was won for Labor by Louise Miller-Frost. Also confirmed as Liberal candidates are Amy Grantham in Adelaide, who also ran in 2022, and Tea Tree Gully councillor Irena Zagladov in Makin.
• In her weekly column for Nine Newspapers, Niki Savva reports a uComms poll conducted for Climate 200 in mid-March credited independent Nicolette Boele with a 53-47 lead over Liberal member Paul Fletcher in the northern Sydney seat of Bradfield. Boele came within 4.2% of winning the seat in 2022. However, the situation in this seat is likely to be substantially complicated by a looming redistribution that will cost New South Wales a seat, which will very likely result in the abolition if not of Bradfield then of one of its near neighbours.
Light Mobile Force v Useless tanks alert:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/may/06/israel-gaza-hamas-ceasefire-updates
Rex Douglas
“ Why Anthony Albanese will face a tough call when the UN votes on full membership for Palestine
Daniel Hurst
With a resolution up before the general assembly this week, Australia’s government may soon have to decide where it officially stands on Palestinian statehood
I say to Labor – vote YES.
What say other bludgers …?”
Fair question Rex. On this one I hope Labor does vote Yes for recognition of Palestine by the UN. As Entropy pointed out earlier, recognition of Palestine was in the first UN recognition of Israel back in 1948. Pretty sure Labor under Doc Evatt voted for that too.
Ethically this is an easy one. There is a basic right of self determination for all peoples and Palestinians should not be excluded. Economically too, most of Australia’s major trading partners will be voting Yes.
Politically Labor will be nervous. But take a long look at US student protests. Like Howard invading Iraq in 2003, voting against Palestinian statehood would cast a stain on our reputation for a long time.
A Federal labor released detainee was distributing Meth around Perth until he bashed a grandmother.Labor is soft on drugs.
The wording would have to be sorted carefully.
Recognize what, exactly?
A general concept?
What borders?
What government?
Uh huh, what did Iran do when Israel bombed it’s Embassy in Damascus?
How about when Trump had Solemeini Killed?
Diddly squat is what they did.
Pied pipersays:
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 7:58 pm
A Federal labor released detainee was distributing Meth around Perth until he bashed a grandmother.Labor is soft on drugs.
====================================================
While the LNP are certainly strong on racist dog whistling.
Badthinker; not wanting the US to get involved militarily doesnt make something a paper tiger, it makes it a rational actor. For all the scaremongering about Chinas military, they are decades away at best from being able to go head to head with US forces.
UN agencies: Gaza is ‘choked off’ from aid by Israel’s closure of border crossings
From the Guardian.
‘The UN’s humanitarian office spokesperson Jens Laerke said at a Geneva press briefing earlier that Israel had shut both the Rafah and Kerem Shalom crossings as part of its Rafah military operation.
“The two main arteries for getting aid into Gaza are currently choked off,” he said, saying that UN agencies had very low stocks inside the Gaza Strip since humanitarian supplies are consumed straight away.
“If no fuel comes in for a prolonged period of time it would be a very effective way of putting the humanitarian operation in its grave,” Reuters reports he added.’
——————–
Spot the false element in this statement.
Well bad thinker – when you come from a theocracy that celebrates martyrdom you probably have a different political calculus.
If your eyeran – do you sit by and let the Israelis wipe Hamas and then watch an alliance be negotiated between Saudi Arabia and Israel?
Who would choose to be allied to such a State?
Entropy: being soft on drugs loses votes. Racist dog whistling (or, under certain circumstances, blatant unveiled racism) WINS votes.
Tragedy strikes even the noblest of causes. 🙁
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-05-07/brisbane-lions-confirm-torn-acls-for-two-more-stars/103816824
Agree with BW re Palestine recognition. Need to be details on what is being recognised.
Soc
It is a cruel occupation for just about everyone who dares to dream.
Tricot @ #1261 Tuesday, May 7th, 2024 – 1:54 pm
John Snow did not “do tests”. He mapped the 1854 cholera outbreak in London & removed the handle of the Broad Street pump, terminating the epidemic -though it was already past its peak. He died of a stroke at age 45. Not all premature mortality is infections.
Regarding how the UN vote concerning Palestinian recognition, i suspect the 2011 campaign would be the starting point – 67 border recognition, because lets be honest… the Israelis will hate any proposal
I’ve just twigged, Peter Dutton posts on PB!
Dogs Brunch, I thought it was obvious we were all current polis?
” Pied pipersays:
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 7:58 pm
A Federal labor released detainee was distributing Meth around Perth until he bashed a grandmother.Labor is soft on drugs.”
And the “Liberals” are absolutely delighted I’m sure. It gives them the opportunity to play the race card, the asylum seeker card and the immigration card without having to actually address any of the associated issues nor make any constructive suggestions.
The current Polis are so boring compared to the past. I mean we had the rodent, the Cheshire Cat, the Milkybar Kid, Madam Asbestos etc. So much more to work with back then.
The Age 07/04
As a proportion of gross state product, Victoria’s net debt is going to be higher than it was at the end of the Cain/Kirner years,” says economist Saul Eslake. “If I was a Victorian taxpayer, I would be worried about that.
_____________________
Bloody oath I’m worried.
It took us years to recover from Cain/Kirner.
I also saw how tough my parents did it back then, working thier arse off trying to put 3 kids through Uni.
rhwomabat….
Thanks for that further information. The mistake in the thinking of the Victorians (and for a long time before this) was that diseases which were killing people was via something called a miasma.
In any event, test or mapping, makes no difference to the outcome. Great public works were carried out in late Victorian times (and are still functional today) to make sure the crap water finished up in the Thames somewhere ….and still does in some places. I have read that Thames water is recycled as many as six times currently.
You seem well informed so you probably know that even bigger public works are taking place in London currently to make sure the system copes with 6-8 million people rather than 2-3 million back then….However, the end product still finishes up in the Thames estuary though much less contaminated than in days gone by….
‘Tricot says:
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 8:44 pm
rhwomabat….
Thanks for that further information. The mistake in the thinking of the Victorians (and for a long time before this) was that diseases which were killing people was via something called a miasma.
In any event, test or mapping, makes no difference to the outcome. Great public works were carried out in late Victorian times (and are still functional today) to make sure the crap water finished up in the Thames somewhere ….and still does in some places. I have read that Thames water is recycled as many as six times currently.
You seem well informed so you probably know that even bigger public works are taking place in London currently to make sure the system copes with 6-8 million people rather than 2-3 million back then….However, the end product still finishes up in the Thames estuary though much less contaminated than in days gone by….’
————————
Um…. the privatization of Thames Water… releases of raw sewage into the Thames… financial disaster looming… failure to maintain system…
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/28/thames-water-public-ownership-water-privatisation-england-and-wales-executives-shareholders
davidwhsays:
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 8:05 pm
Agree with BW re Palestine recognition. Need to be details on what is being recognised.
===============================================
Palestine has been recognised since 1947. The UN resolution that brought the state of Israel into being also created the state of Palestine. If one is not legitimate the other is not either.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Partition_Plan_for_Palestine
That poor woman who got beaten up in her home in Perth was the recipient a cowardly attack.
It is interesting however that the criminal detainee on the loose was not alone in the attack. He was part of a local criminal gang who preyed on vulnerable people. The other members I gather we local Oz thugs – something which does not get much attention in the pulp press.
As well, I think I heard it mentioned that some jewelry worth some $200K was stolen. I hope to goodness this latter comment was not true as who would be stupid enough to keep stuff worth that much in their home….? And with no disrespect to Girrawheen (WA), but $200K of jewels in Girrawheen? Seems unlikely to me….
MelbourneMammothsays:
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 8:04 pm
Entropy: being soft on drugs loses votes. Racist dog whistling (or, under certain circumstances, blatant unveiled racism) WINS votes.
===============================================
A false binary as there is zero evidence that Labor is soft on drugs. Though there is ample evidence that the LNP are racist dog whistlers though.
Thanks BW, you are better informed than me on that one…….I know the privatisation of water in the UK has been a disaster for the whole nation, but then, who has been in power for 14 years?
The Tories privatised the rail system and currently the UK system is falling to pieces.
A few years ago, when a serious rail accident occurred due to the failure of private companies running the railways then, to carry out vital maintenance, the responsibility to ensure the tracks themselves were properly attended to, was taken out of the hands of private operators.
What is it about the conservative side of politics that keeps them going back to privatisation when plainly it is not Adam Smith reincarnate?
Steve777:
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 8:34 pm
[‘And the “Liberals” are absolutely delighted I’m sure. It gives them the opportunity to play the race card, the asylum seeker card and the immigration card without having to actually address any of the associated issues nor make any constructive suggestions.’]
You forgot the law & order bandwagon.
Entropy the problem is that Palestine rejected the 1948 resolution. What we need today, something that seems impossible to achieve, is a two state solution that both Israel and Palestine agree upon. No UN resolution can achieve that in the foreseeable future:
So I agree with BW what exactly is the structure of any currently proposed resolution.
”You forgot the law & order bandwagon.”
Yes I did. The “Law and Order” bandwagon too.
I am actually pleased that the High Court has determined that it is unconstitutional to keep people in detention indefinitely without them having been convicted or even charged with a crime.
Their sentences had expired. What would the Coalition have done? Ignored a High Court ruling that doesn’t suit them? Deport them to a country where they face death or serious persecution? Deport them to a country that won’t accept them?
Now that would be a worry.
davidwhsays:
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 9:00 pm
Entropy the problem is that Palestine rejected the 1948 resolution.
=====================================================
It was a UN resolution that passed. Palestine nor Israel never got to vote on it. As at the time they didn’t exist, it was all part of the British mandate then. Palestine is a UN decreed state though. It what way did this territorial state actually reject it?. Did it write a letter to the UN saying thanks but no thanks?. How can a state brought into existence by a UN resolution actually reject a resolution that brought them into existence. As they would need to actually exist to do so?.
As far i remember it meant the British were supposed to set it up. As they were in control of that region at the time of the UN resolution.
Steve777says:
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 9:10 pm
Deport them to a country that won’t accept them?
Now that would be a worry.
====================================================
The LNP will set up reverse people smuggling operations?.
Re recognition of Palestine, Labor really are under a hiding to nothing on this.
No position other than that of unconditional, un-nuanced support for Israel’s position (total opposition) would bring down the fury of the Liberal-National-Newscorp Coalition and much of the other mainstream media, with loud accusations of being antisemitic Hamas-lovers. Opposing the resolution would bring forth condemnation from the Greens, migrant communities in Labor seats and much of Labor’s progressive base and allies.
Abstention, which I think is the most likely position, would bring forth condemnation from just about everyone paying attention.
So the Government might as well do what they judge to be the right thing to do. I’m leaning towards recognition, on 1967 boundaries. The alternative is that we agree to Palestinians remain subject to apartheid-like conditions effectively within Israel indefinitely.
Entropy you are technically correct. Resolution 181 partitioned Palestine into an Arab state and a Jewish state. The Arab league rejected any partition of Palestine. The Jews agreed to the resolution.
Anywayvmuch blood and water has flowed since then and I doubt we will ever get back to the R181 partition. At best we may one day get back to the 1967 partition but it won’t be in my lifetime I suspect.
So not sure what any resolution today would look like which I believe was what BW’s initial post was saying.
“The Arab league rejected any partition of Palestine. The Jews agreed to the resolution.”
The resolution passed. How you voted in a resolution doesn’t mean you want adhere to the decision though. The Jews obviously are not adhering to it now. Even if they did support it at the time. Though they didn’t actually have a vote.
Ironically it was FUBAR who wanted to point out Israel was created by the UN. Ironic as the same UN resolution that created Israel also decreed the creation of the state of Palestine. If FUBAR looked at land decreed to be Israel and that decreed to be Palestine in that resolution. I doubt FUBAR would support that UN resolution though now.
If necessary Biden would throw the election rather than not give complete and unconditional support to Israel. Biden has handed Netanyahu a blank cheque to do whatever he wants, despite the harm to US interests worldwide. It’s absolutely incredible when you think about it. But that’s the power of the Israel lobby.
A problem with Biden is that his mindset towards Israel seems to be parked in the 1990s. Israel is no longer the country exemplified by men like Shimon Peres, Yitzhak Rabin or even Ehud Olmert. These leaders at least knew deep down that there had to be some sort of negotiated settlement to the Palestinian issue. Israel has been largely taken over by extremist nationalists and religious zealots, who believe that its all theirs for the taking, a country run by fanatics like Netanyahu, Ben-Gvir and Smotrich who to their core are 110% against a Palestinian state not now not ever. And why wouldn’t they think they can take it all when they know they will have the full, unconditional support of the US government no matter what they do?
If anyone actually read the report about the Foreign Minister’s deliberations around the UN Resolution re Palestine they would know that she is carefully considering every word of it before she decides whether Australia should vote for it or not. As you would expect from a senior Minister who takes her job seriously. Right now her thoughts are that some of the wording doesn’t meet with her approval so she will monitor revision of the Resolution before making a decision.
Re US politics, Robert Reich describes an interesting proposal to ensure that the Presidential candidate who wins the popular vote nationwide becomes President:
https://youtu.be/dFZyFmILb5w?si=1z-S3RAjhCetCVD-
This does not require abolition of the Electoral College. That would require a Constitutional amendment, which seems to be even harder than amending ours:
New thread.
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