Friday miscellany: Morgan poll and sundry preselections (open thread)

Labor fills a Victorian Senate vacancy, while the Liberals choose an ACT Senate candidate and confirm Nicolle Flint’s comeback bid in Boothby.

There’s quite a bit going on in Bludgerdom at the moment, so before we proceed, some plugs for the posts below this one:

• First and foremost, the site’s thirty-seventh bi-monthly donation drive is in progress, so if you’ve ever felt this corner of cyberspace was deserving of support, there is no time like the present.

• There is a guest post from Adrian Beaumont covering today’s British local elections and various other items of news from what passes for the democratic world these days.

• I have a post up on tomorrow’s Tasmanian periodic Legislative Council elections (or to be precise, two periodic elections and one by-election), which aren’t always interesting but are this year, as the post seeks to explain.

• Still another new post looks at a New South Wales state poll that as far as I can tell has gone unreported by the paper that commissioned it.

On with the show:

• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor with an unchanged two-party lead of 52-48, from primary votes of Labor 31.5% (up one), Coalition 36.5% (up one), Greens 14% (down two) and One Nation 5.5% (steady). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1719.

• As intimated by earlier reports, Labor has chosen Lisa Darmanin, public sector branch secretary of the Australian Services Union, to fill the Victorian Senate vacancy created by the death in February of Linda White, who shared Darmanian’s background in the union.

• The Canberra Times reports a Liberal preselection to choose its Australian Capital Territory Senate candidate was won by Jacob Vadakkedathu, director of a management consultancy. Vadakkedathu prevailed in the final round over Kasey Lam-Evans by 163 votes to 121, after former ministerial adviser Jerry Nockles and former territory parliamentarian Giulia Jones dropped out in earlier rounds.

• The Liberals have confirmed former Liberal member Nicolle Flint’s comeback bid in the Adelaide seat of Boothby, which she held from 2016 until she stood aside at the 2022 election, at which it was won for Labor by Louise Miller-Frost. Also confirmed as Liberal candidates are Amy Grantham in Adelaide, who also ran in 2022, and Tea Tree Gully councillor Irena Zagladov in Makin.

• In her weekly column for Nine Newspapers, Niki Savva reports a uComms poll conducted for Climate 200 in mid-March credited independent Nicolette Boele with a 53-47 lead over Liberal member Paul Fletcher in the northern Sydney seat of Bradfield. Boele came within 4.2% of winning the seat in 2022. However, the situation in this seat is likely to be substantially complicated by a looming redistribution that will cost New South Wales a seat, which will very likely result in the abolition if not of Bradfield then of one of its near neighbours.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,441 comments on “Friday miscellany: Morgan poll and sundry preselections (open thread)”

Comments Page 28 of 29
1 27 28 29
  1. And I’m sure I saw polling the other day showing that voters prefer to see larger local governments not smaller. Or something to that effect.

  2. Australian border authorities have picked up five Rwandan men categorised as “unauthorised maritime arrivals” on an island in the Torres Strait.
    The Australian Border Force (ABF) found the five men on Saibai Island, four kilometres from the Papua New Guinea mainland in the strait off Cape York in Australia’s north-east.
    The group are believed to be Rwandan citizens. It is unknown whether they have claimed asylum in Australia. They are now undergoing medical checks.
    The arrivals come as the UK struggles to implement a policy of sending hundreds to thousands of asylum seekers to Rwanda to deter journeys to the UK, a policy likened to Australia’s controversial Pacific solution for asylum seekers.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/may/07/australian-border-force-arrest-men-rwanda-saibai-island-torrest-strait-papua-new-guinea

  3. Boerwar says:
    Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 6:02 pm
    ‘Irene says:
    Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 5:46 pm

    We know that for you facts barely matter, if at all. You just make shit up and then slag Labor.

    ————————-

    That is your speciality. Errors. Often. The companies gain taxpayer money and special favours, good tax deductions, if they donate to Labor.

    Lower income people don’t donate. So they are ignored.

    At their first choice, 31% voters know Labor doesn’t support them. That is less than 2/3rds want Labor has the government.

    Start accepting the facts.

  4. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/may/07/un-vote-palestine-membership-australia-government-anthony-albanese-israel-hamas-war-gaza

    Why Anthony Albanese will face a tough call when the UN votes on full membership for Palestine
    Daniel Hurst
    With a resolution up before the general assembly this week, Australia’s government may soon have to decide where it officially stands on Palestinian statehood

    I say to Labor – vote YES.

    What say other bludgers …?

  5. For those on the Bendigo line ….. train to Sunbury then the 457/9 bus to the airport all on the myki.. cheap as..
    Works for me

  6. A Senate inquiry has rebuffed calls for stricter controls on hundreds of lobbyists who gain access to Parliament House to influence politicians, sparking a new dispute about whether to force them to reveal all their meetings with ministers.

    The inquiry admitted the need to consider sweeping changes to the lobbying regime, saying a further inquiry could explore the options, but it did not embrace major proposals for reform after months of submissions from experts.

    The findings, issued in a Senate committee report on Tuesday afternoon, provoked sharp criticism from senators who wanted immediate action to expand the regime to include in-house government relations executives as well as independent lobbying firms.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/fatally-flawed-crossbench-anger-after-senate-report-stops-short-of-lobbying-reform-20240507-p5fpmg.html

    Lobbyists of course, are the true ‘faceless men’ of politics, and I’d be happy to see them have greater accountability place on their operations.

    I recall posting an article last year or year before that revealed that many lobbyists have carte blanche access to ministers’ officers, and can readily land in a minister’s office without notice or a meeting request. Voters deserve greater transparency around how these people are able to influence policy.

  7. Failed labor wing nut vic treasure broke Pallis has started the Diversion already bagging out WA at his incompetent budget press conference.
    Geez wait to Thurs when billion surplus in WA budget is announced etc.

    Meanwhile the people smugglers are up and about they know about weak fed labor gov and its weak border policies by air and sea!!

  8. Confessions @ #1351 Tuesday, May 7th, 2024 – 6:09 pm

    And I’m sure I saw polling the other day showing that voters prefer to see larger local governments not smaller. Or something to that effect.

    Try living in an area with an incompetent and technically bankrupt local council. The voters there might see things a little differently.

  9. Rex Douglas says:
    Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 6:16 pm
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/may/07/un-vote-palestine-membership-australia-government-anthony-albanese-israel-hamas-war-gaza

    “Why Anthony Albanese will face a tough call when the UN votes on full membership for Palestine
    Daniel Hurst
    With a resolution up before the general assembly this week, Australia’s government may soon have to decide where it officially stands on Palestinian statehood

    I say to Labor – vote YES.

    What say other bludgers …?”

    I would say YES, but I am not holding my breath.

  10. Irenesays:
    Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 6:11 pm
    Boerwar says:
    Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 6:02 pm
    ‘Irene says:
    Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 5:46 pm

    We know that for you facts barely matter, if at all. You just make shit up and then slag Labor.

    ————————-

    That is your speciality. Errors. Often. The companies gain taxpayer money and special favours, good tax deductions, if they donate to Labor.

    Lower income people don’t donate. So they are ignored.

    At their first choice, 31% voters know Labor doesn’t support them. That is less than 2/3rds want Labor has the government.

    Start accepting the facts.
    ===================================================

    Seeing as you were going on about Gina. Can you provide any proof that Gina Rinehart has ever donated to Federal Labor?.

  11. I’m a small shareholder in Iluka- an Australian mineral sands and rare earths miner who had their AGM today.

    I can recommend anyone interested in what our mining leaders are thinking about global developments in critical minerals read the prepared speeches by the Chair and Managing Director.

    https://iluka.com/media/3lik4ory/7may24-2024-agm-chairmans-and-managing-directors-addresses.pdf

    In short, they are building the first and only Australian based rare earth refinery in WA. And yes, the Australian Government is lending over $1b to get this up and running.

  12. Rewi: “There’s a middle path: a greater number of provinces that merge local and State functions. 25-40 would be about right”

    I reckon no more than 11 (with different names to what I’ve shown: preferably Indigenous ones)
    Northwest Australia (Kimberleys, Pilbara, NT down to Tennant Creek, Gulf Country and Barkly Tableland, capital Darwin)
    North-eastern Australia (North Queensland, capital Townsville)
    Southern Queensland (Queensland south of the Tropic of Capricorn: capital Brisbane)
    Northern NSW (capital Newcastle)
    Central NSW (capital Sydney)
    Southern NSW (capital Wollongong or perhaps Albury)
    Eastern Victoria (capital Melbourne)
    Western Victoria (capital Geelong or Ballarat)
    Tasmania (same as at present)
    South and Central Australia (capital Adelaide, would include Alice Springs and the current part of NSW west of the Darling )
    Western Australia (same as at present, but without the Kimberleys and Pilbara)

    And the ACT would remain a territory

  13. Irene must have missed this story…

    BILLIONAIRE mining magnate Gina Rinehart flew Coalition MPs, including the Liberal Party’s deputy leader Julie Bishop and Nationals Senate leader Barnaby Joyce, to take part in a sumptuous three day-wedding of a prominent Indian industrialist in Hyderabad.

    Ms Rinehart took the Canberra delegation by private jet to a Reddy family wedding earlier this week. The Reddy family company, infrastructure behemoth GVK, is seeking a controlling stake in coal mines owned by the Hancock group.

    Reports suggest the transaction could be worth more than $2 billion.

    Senator Joyce told The Age yesterday it was his understanding Ms Rinehart had wanted the wedding party to be bipartisan, also approaching Labor parliamentarians to round out the delegation, but her invitation had been declined.

    Resources Minister Martin Ferguson confirmed last night he had been invited to the occasion by Ms Rinehart, but had ”respectfully” declined.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/gina-rinehart-flew-mps-to-india-for-lavish-wedding-20110616-1g5zf.html

  14. On more than one occasion Pied Piper predicted doom and gloom because the iron ore price is falling. The West Australian tells us that in fact the iron ore price is rising, and as a consequence the whole country benefits

    I reckon it’s because we have a government that restored relations with our customers after they were wrecked by incompetent clowns in the LNP.

  15. Sprocket your not quoting your favourite economist The Kouk on the imminence of interest rate cuts anymore?

    What went wrong with the economic strategy? Thoughts?

  16. ‘Granny Anny says:
    Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 6:37 pm

    On more than one occasion Pied Piper predicted doom and gloom because the iron ore price is falling. The West Australian tells us that in fact the iron ore price is rising, and as a consequence the whole country benefits

    I reckon it’s because we have a government that restored relations with our customers after they were wrecked by incompetent clowns in the LNP.’
    ———————
    Yep. And Dutton’s populist strong man lunacy on the flare drop shows that he has learned fuck all from the whole Morrison fiasco, of which Dutton was a core part.

  17. Silly Granny,

    you know that Comrade Xi is visiting the site of the former bombed out Chinese Embassy in Belgrade to lay a wreath to the Chinese war dead and urging eternal vigilance against Nato aggression.

  18. Western Australia (same as at present, but without the Kimberleys and Pilbara)

    There’s like a gazillion local governments in WA, mostly occupying rural/regional areas. Take the Shire of Dumbleyung which has 23 staff and 7 councillors.
    https://www.dumbleyung.wa.gov.au/councillors-staff

    Why is this local government area not merged with surrounding districts? Because the then Liberal state government kept hands off rural council mergers and just focused on the metro mergers.

  19. It can probably be confirmed that no donations greater than $10K has been made. Because of the coalition era donation laws there is no evidence of anything below that.

  20. Arky @ 4.09

    Nope

    While what you point out may have had some impact, Governments of all sorts getting out of building public housing is the true root cause of the housing crisis.

    Capitalism demands maximum profit – so the building industry make the most expensive houses it thinks it can sell for the cheapest production cost. This does not include build to rent as even now rental returns are poor.

    If no one is servicing the bottom of the market, it doesn’t happen and thus we end up with a housing shortage.

  21. Crumbs. Did Gina the Hutt donate to the ALP? Who cares? If she did not, others did.

    Fossil fuel donations are massive to all the parties of the duopoly …

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/feb/02/more-money-than-ever-gas-companies-made-almost-1m-in-donations-to-labor-and-liberals

    Broken down between the parties, the lion’s share of this money went to the Liberal party, which received $506,810. Next was Labor, which received $392,354, and last was the Nationals, which received $59,991.

    The Greens were not included as the party has a policy of refusing donations from fossil fuel companies and received none.

    And, of course, these were only the disclosed donations. Much more money was donated but did not need to be disclosed because of our ridiculous disclosure rules 🙁

    But did this influence government policy? Don’t think so for a minute – these fossil fuel companies donated out of the goodness of their hearts, because they are so honest and environmentally concerned.

  22. The Treasury is very conservative when it comes to iron ore price forecasts in the Budget papers –

    “ The December update also assumed iron ore prices would peak at $US105 per tonne in the September quarter 2023, falling to $US60 per tonne by September 2024. ”

    Company tax receipts are projected from these assumptions. The price today is $US119.56 and rising, meaning the $US60 assumption was only 100% out…

  23. Irenesays:
    Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 6:11 pm
    At their first choice, 31% voters know Labor doesn’t support them. That is less than 2/3rds want Labor has the government.
    =====================================================

    Which individual party has higher?. Or are you suggesting the LNP coalition (not an individual party) has a higher percentage. So therefore should be handed Government instead?

  24. I think Albo will do the right thing by Israel

    Happy to be corrected but I think that supporting a two state solution is official Labor policy.

  25. It seems the $368billion, or at least half of it, for 2nd hand nuclear powered US submarines, won’t be Australia’s after all. This money is to support the US submarine building industry. Nothing else.

    Any use for them, such as to attack China, will be a requirement for Australia if the US decrees. The US agrees to any arrangement with another country only if its interests are benefited.

    What duds in Labor made this woeful decision? The US knew amateurs were in charge. With little loyalty to Australians.

    US won’t guarantee Australia will have complete control of Aukus submarines
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/07/australia-us-aukus-submarine-deal-control-daniel-kritenbrink?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    ‘A US official has declined to explicitly guarantee Australia will have full control of the Aukus nuclear-powered submarines, saying he won’t get “into some of the minutiae of various questions that are out there”.

    During a press conference at the US embassy, Kritenbrink was questioned about past statements by US officials, including Aukus architect Kurt Campbell, who said last year: “When submarines are provided from the United States to Australia, it’s not like they’re lost – they will just be deployed by the closest possible allied force.”’

  26. I fully expect things to get worse in the Middle East.

    Iran isn’t going to allow Hamas to get wiped by Israel and the Israelis aren’t going to stop until they destroy Rafah and kill Sinwar.

    If it looks like Hamas is going to get wiped – what are the chances that Iran unleashes Hezbollah?

    Really dangerous stuff and likely to take place in the next week or so by the looks of it. If the US is planning on talking down the Israelis now would be a good time to intervene.

  27. Player One – Companies are not all running around donating $9000 to keep their donations secret. Plus how many gas companies are there who are making enough money to be donating to political parties? There are about 30 listed gas companies on the ASX but about half are exploration companies with tiny market capital. So even if all the rest of them were donating $9000 each to escape the disclosure limit, that would be at most $150,000.

  28. Player Onesays:
    Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 6:48 pm
    Crumbs. Did Gina the Hutt donate to the ALP? Who cares? If she did not, others did.
    =================================================

    Not relevant to you because you didn’t make a false claim over this. It is relevant as far as person who claimed the Albanese Government gave money to a mining company due to Gina being a donor though. It was a quite specific claim though.” Others did”, is not relevant to this exact claim though.

  29. ‘Irene says:
    Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 6:54 pm

    It seems the $368billion, or at least half of it,…’
    ————————
    LOL. Facts can only barely matter if they are in fact facts. This is brainless bullshit. $184 billion here or there barely matters.

  30. ‘sprocket_ says:
    Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 6:36 pm

    Irene must have missed this story…’
    —————–
    Maybe, maybe not. Facts are not Irene’s problem.

  31. Boerwarsays:
    Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 6:59 pm
    Why we need to be calm. Why the Albanese Government needs to be calm. Why we do not need moral panic. Why populist calls for crack downs of protestors in the universities are destructive, noting, that Dutton is irony free. Some of the protests are by students supporting Israel.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/may/07/sydney-man-sentenced-to-12-months-in-jail-after-planting-homemade-bomb-outside-pro-palestinians-house
    ===================================================

    This example is not a protest. It appears to be terrorism. Certainly fits all the criteria in the so called “Bishop” stabbing. Which the NSW police declared was terrorism.

  32. Wow!
    One Australian Government clearly wants to dumb down Australia.
    The proof in that particular pudding is provision of 440,000 free TAFE places.

  33. Entropy
    I didn’t say it was a protest. It is fairly clearly, IMO, a terrorist act.
    My point is that we don’t need moral panic.
    We need calm. The above is an example of WHY we need calm.

  34. LVT – Iran doesn’t really care if Hamas gets smashed, the issue of Palestine will not be resolved and that is what they need – a cause to excuse their other bad behaviour on.
    If Iran was able to unleash Hezbollah and they were actually looking for a fight they would have done it last month when they launched there missiles at Israel. Hezbollah also get to have a say – and a big chunk of Hezbollah is happy being a threat-in-being towards Israel and not too keen to get the crap blown out them like 2006. Already they have lost 500 fighters and that is before the main fighting has started.

  35. Not so sure fairman.

    Not much point in being a proxy if your sponsor cannot protect you.

    The Israeli right is saying after Rafah, time to settle accounts with Hezbollah to prevent another Oct 7

  36. Another one. I actually applaud the media for reporting these incidents. The first step in reducing their prevalence is bringing attention to them when they arise.

    Veteran television reporter turned corporate consultant Liam Cox has been charged with choking and assaulting a woman in an alleged domestic violence incident which led to her hospitalisation on Saturday night.

    Police say that they were called to a Vaucluse semi-detached house just before midnight on Saturday.

    “A 39-year-old woman was treated at the scene by NSW Ambulance paramedics and taken to St Vincent’s Hospital in a stable condition,” NSW Police said.

    “The following day, police arrested a 39-year-old man at a hotel in Bondi Beach.”

    Cox was taken to Waverley police station where he was charged with assault occasioning actual bodily harm (DV) and intentionally choke (DV).

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/former-television-reporter-charged-with-choking-woman-20240507-p5fqga.html

  37. Boerwarsays:
    Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 7:08 pm
    Entropy
    I didn’t say it was a protest. It is fairly clearly, IMO, a terrorist act.
    My point is that we don’t need moral panic.
    We need calm. The above is an example of WHY we need calm.
    =============================================

    No you didn’t, you were talking about protests in your post though. As you say it is terrorism. It is even well beyond what could be consider a violent protest. It is certainly far worse than the Opera house protest that FUD Dutton likened to the Port Arthur massacre. Obviously we don’t need FUD Dutton wiping up fear and division. When encouraging social cohesion is really what is required.

  38. Will the Albanese Labor Government’s UN position on recognising Palestine be guided by:

    A. Labor Party policy
    B. The wishes of the US Government?

    ?

  39. Boerwar @ #1387 Tuesday, May 7th, 2024 – 7:07 pm

    Wow!
    One Australian Government clearly wants to dumb down Australia.
    The proof in that particular pudding is provision of 440,000 free TAFE places.

    Oh, look …

    https://www.alp.org.au/policies/fee-free-tafe-and-more-university-places

    Fee Free TAFE will help rebuild industries hit hardest by the pandemic, like hospitality and tourism, as well as meet current and future needs in the care economy, including jobs like child care, aged care, disability care, nursing and community services.

    It will also provide more opportunities for apprentices and trainees, and fill skills shortage gaps like those in trades and construction, resources, digital and cyber security, new energy and advanced manufacturing.

    Tourism and resources! That must really chap your ass!

  40. Common sense.
    Iran is a paper tiger, why would it fight for palestine when the Arab Countries in the region aren’t interested in lifting a finger [apart from the mighty Houthies]?

  41. ‘S. Simpson says:
    Tuesday, May 7, 2024 at 7:31 pm

    Will the Albanese Labor Government’s UN position on recognising Palestine be guided by:

    A. Labor Party policy
    B. The wishes of the US Government?

    ?’
    —————
    Ah. Rhetorical questions.
    Will Putin ever turn into a normal human being?
    Is Putin’s murderous behaviour psychopathological?
    ?

  42. Talk about an own goal.

    The state government is threatening to pull funding from some Western Sydney libraries following a council vote to remove same-sex parenting books from shelves.

    A slim majority of Cumberland City councillors voted for the book ban in a heated council meeting last week.

    The motion was brought by former mayor, Councillor Steve Christou, who told the council meeting he had been contacted by “distraught local parents” who found a book on same-sex parenting in the “toddler section”.

    Arts Minister John Graham said he was considering financial implications for the council.

    “We are examining the consequences this decision may have for the council continuing to receive library funding from the NSW government,” he said.

    “When civilisations turn to burning books or banning books it is a very bad sign. That is equally true for local councils.

    “It is up to readers to choose which book to take off the shelf.”

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-05-07/nsw-sydney-council-bans-same-sex-parenting-book/103816950

  43. Badthinker, thinking Iran is a paper tiger is absurd, and is just the kind of thinking that has led us into multiple catastrophic engagements over the last several decades…

Comments Page 28 of 29
1 27 28 29

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *