Friday miscellany: Morgan poll and sundry preselections (open thread)

Labor fills a Victorian Senate vacancy, while the Liberals choose an ACT Senate candidate and confirm Nicolle Flint’s comeback bid in Boothby.

There’s quite a bit going on in Bludgerdom at the moment, so before we proceed, some plugs for the posts below this one:

• First and foremost, the site’s thirty-seventh bi-monthly donation drive is in progress, so if you’ve ever felt this corner of cyberspace was deserving of support, there is no time like the present.

• There is a guest post from Adrian Beaumont covering today’s British local elections and various other items of news from what passes for the democratic world these days.

• I have a post up on tomorrow’s Tasmanian periodic Legislative Council elections (or to be precise, two periodic elections and one by-election), which aren’t always interesting but are this year, as the post seeks to explain.

• Still another new post looks at a New South Wales state poll that as far as I can tell has gone unreported by the paper that commissioned it.

On with the show:

• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor with an unchanged two-party lead of 52-48, from primary votes of Labor 31.5% (up one), Coalition 36.5% (up one), Greens 14% (down two) and One Nation 5.5% (steady). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1719.

• As intimated by earlier reports, Labor has chosen Lisa Darmanin, public sector branch secretary of the Australian Services Union, to fill the Victorian Senate vacancy created by the death in February of Linda White, who shared Darmanian’s background in the union.

• The Canberra Times reports a Liberal preselection to choose its Australian Capital Territory Senate candidate was won by Jacob Vadakkedathu, director of a management consultancy. Vadakkedathu prevailed in the final round over Kasey Lam-Evans by 163 votes to 121, after former ministerial adviser Jerry Nockles and former territory parliamentarian Giulia Jones dropped out in earlier rounds.

• The Liberals have confirmed former Liberal member Nicolle Flint’s comeback bid in the Adelaide seat of Boothby, which she held from 2016 until she stood aside at the 2022 election, at which it was won for Labor by Louise Miller-Frost. Also confirmed as Liberal candidates are Amy Grantham in Adelaide, who also ran in 2022, and Tea Tree Gully councillor Irena Zagladov in Makin.

• In her weekly column for Nine Newspapers, Niki Savva reports a uComms poll conducted for Climate 200 in mid-March credited independent Nicolette Boele with a 53-47 lead over Liberal member Paul Fletcher in the northern Sydney seat of Bradfield. Boele came within 4.2% of winning the seat in 2022. However, the situation in this seat is likely to be substantially complicated by a looming redistribution that will cost New South Wales a seat, which will very likely result in the abolition if not of Bradfield then of one of its near neighbours.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,441 comments on “Friday miscellany: Morgan poll and sundry preselections (open thread)”

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  1. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    The Albanese government wanted the alleged basher of Ninette Simons to remain behind bars, but it cannot escape the political fallout from the fact he was set free, writes David Crowe. The government looks like it’s on a hiding to nothing.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/community-safety-is-our-priority-the-government-says-tell-that-to-ninette-simons-20240502-p5fogn.html
    Finance Minister Katy Gallagher’s $50 billion spending audit will continue in the May 14 budget, but economists warn the federal government will need to go further to avoid any new spending hampering the Reserve Bank’s efforts to bring inflation down. Rachel Clun reports that Gallagher said the government was continuing to clean up federal spending programs left behind by the former Coalition government, which included an overreliance in federal departments on consulting firms for outsourced work and several grants programs that have since been axed.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/50b-clawed-back-from-waste-and-rorts-not-enough-to-solve-truly-wicked-problem-20240430-p5fnjv.html
    The Albanese government is considering going it alone with a second round of power bill discounts at the May 14 budget, arguing that like the initial relief handed out last year, the assistance would be non-inflationary. Phil Coorey tells us that Jim Chalmers is also pushing back at claims that the Future Made in Australia Act will somehow exacerbate inflation, given the money pledged in terms of loans, grants and equity stakes is designed to be spent over the medium and longer terms.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/pm-chalmers-mull-go-it-alone-power-price-discounts-20240502-p5fo9m
    The budget reveals what governments actually care about. And Labor has chosen to keep jobseekers in poverty, complains Greg Jericho.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2024/may/02/the-federal-budget-reveals-what-governments-actually-care-about-and-labor-has-chosen-to-keep-jobseekers-in-poverty
    Australia’s housing affordability “crisis” will continue to worsen with a “significant shortfall in supply”, according to the government’s own expert council. In its first-ever state of the housing system report, the National Housing Supply and Affordability Council described Labor’s target of building 1.2m new homes over five years as “suitably ambitious” because it projects only 943,000 will be built in that time. The report, to be released today warns that “non-market” social and affordable housing is “forecast to remain low” and the tax system is adding to inequality between those who can and cannot afford home ownership.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/may/03/australias-housing-crisis-to-worsen-with-significant-shortfall-in-supply-labors-expert-council-says
    Joseph Mitchell argues that the Liberals’ plan to destroy super will drive up house prices.
    https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/opinion/2024/05/01/liberals-plan-super-house-prices
    Amy Remeikis takes us through yesterday’s court proceedings in the Faruqi/Handon case.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/may/02/faruqi-v-hanson-one-nation-leaders-barrister-says-tweet-not-nice-but-not-racist-as-court-hears-closing-arguments
    Clearing the elective surgery backlog will take more than one budget. It’ll need major reform, argues Professor Henry Cutler.
    https://theconversation.com/clearing-the-elective-surgery-backlog-will-take-more-than-one-budget-itll-need-major-reform-228611
    In this op-ed, Zoe Daniel looks at the paradox at the heart of online safety.
    https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/opinion/2024/05/02/zoe-daniel-online-safety
    Climate change could render parts of northern Australia almost unliveable, throwing into doubt the feasibility of crucial military bases, a group of leading Defence figures has warned. Matthew Knott tells us that the Australian Security Leaders Climate Group, led by former Australian Defence Force chief Chris Barrie, is calling on the federal government to put climate change at the centre of its thinking on national security, rather than focusing on the strategic risk of a more powerful China.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/near-unliveable-extreme-heat-poses-national-security-risk-20240501-p5fo09.html
    You can’t solve a problem without talking about it, honestly. Take the impact of climate disruption on security. “Too hot to handle: The scorching reality of Australia’s climate–security failure” is a report published this week by the Australian Security Leaders Group (ASLCG) . This article is an extract from the report.
    https://johnmenadue.com/climate-security-risks-and-australias-failure-too-hot-to-handle-released-thursday/
    Molly Ticehurst’s death and the allegations against her former partner have fuelled nationwide despair and anger at the growing toll of Australia’s domestic violence, says the SMH editorial. It laments that while views about women and gendered violence have improved over the past 15 years, almost one in four Australian adults still think domestic violence “is a normal reaction to day-to-day stress and frustration”, according to the latest national survey, and almost one in five believe “a woman can make a man so angry that he hits her when he didn’t mean to”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/australia-needs-to-ditch-its-dinosaur-attitudes-but-molly-ticehurst-shouldn-t-have-paid-the-price-to-make-it-happen-20240502-p5fog8.html
    The more I heard the discourse around respect and violence, the more it reminded me of being told that it was up to all Muslims to own the problem of terrorism and solve it, writes Waleed Aly who says holding all men responsible for a violent minority has failed to keep women safe. It’s a very interesting contribution.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/holding-all-men-responsible-for-a-violent-minority-has-failed-to-keep-women-safe-20240501-p5fo82.html
    Australia’s police ministers will investigate new ways to spot red flags for dangerous men, which could involve looking at their online activity, GPS and mental health data or involvement in family law disputes. Natassia Chrysanthos reports that, as state and federal governments escalate their efforts to tackle domestic violence, ministers are also examining how intervention orders and apprehended violence orders travel across state borders to ensure women escaping violent partners do not have to renew them if they move.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/how-police-could-spot-red-flags-for-violent-men-who-fly-under-the-radar-20240502-p5foa3.html
    PsiQuantum’s $1bn deal with the Albanese and Miles governments to build a yet-to-be-developed fault-tolerant quantum computer in Brisbane could be torn up if the Coalition wins federal and Queensland elections within 12 months. The Australian an reveals that deputy opposition leader Sussan Ley, opposition Treasury spokesman Angus Taylor and opposition science spokesman Paul Fletcher will meet virtually with PsiQuantum co-founder and CEO Jeremy O’Brien today.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/1bn-psiquantum-deal-in-doubt-if-coalition-and-lnp-win-office/news-story/66e7dda89ffe4b56eea71a7daa77ff7d?amp=
    Community trust in journalism is at an all-time low. Even politicians rate higher. Our media – journalists, publishers and broadcasters – should urgently get together and work out how best to rebuild public confidence in what is being presented as news, urges Ranald Macdonald.
    https://johnmenadue.com/the-media-must-surely-act-now-to-rebuild-public-confidence/
    Carrie Fellner does a deep dive into the saga of 3M and its knowledge of the dangers of its ubiquitous PFOS chemical.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-disappearing-words-exposing-3m-s-decades-of-deception-over-cancer-link-20240326-p5ffdh.html
    Outgoing Woolworths chief executive Brad Banducci has cited ongoing cost-of-living pressures such as higher rent and utilities, the absence of a collectibles program and bad press as the reasons behind an underwhelming third quarter for the supermarket giant, writes Jessica Yun. The company has been out-traded by its main rival, Coles.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/we-have-got-a-lot-of-work-to-do-woolworths-wary-as-coles-closes-home-brand-gap-20240502-p5foak.html
    Elizabeth Knight explains how competition is kicking the stuffing out of NAB and Woolworths.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/competition-kicks-the-stuffing-out-of-nab-and-woolworths-20240502-p5fogp.html
    Which is worse, Israel’s lies about Gaza or its western backers who repeat those lies, writes Mehdi Hasan who says useful idiots keep parroting provably false Israeli talking points.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/may/02/israel-gaza-lies-western-backers
    The right’s Brexit ‘bonfire of red tape’ was just wind and smoke. And even Tories want more regulation now, says Polly Toynbee in a cutting contribution.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/may/02/brexit-bonfire-red-tape-tories-voters-business

    Cartoon Corner

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    Leak

    From the US













  2. Labor’s Socialist Left faction is understood to have resolved the selection without going to a ballot after other candidates withdrew from the race.
    _____________________
    Sent the heavies round for a visit.

  3. Anthony Albanese will use the budget to sandbag seats in Western Australia and Queensland and shield struggling nickel, lithium and rare earths producers, with the government close to finalising major support packages including targeted production tax credits for miners.
    Ahead of the Prime Minister travelling to Perth next week to spruik funding aimed at ensuring critical minerals and rare earths companies remain competitive in a volatile global market, Treasury is understood to be close to landing the design of a production tax-credits scheme.
    The Australian can also reveal Jim Chalmers will resist pressure from climate groups, the Greens and teal independents to scrap or scale-back fuel tax credits for miners in the May 14 budget and is ­expected to extend the expiring Exploring for the Future program run by Geoscience Australia.
    The program, due to end this year and dedicated to mapping geological deposits and guiding commercial exploration, had its funding topped up to $225m following a $125m boost in 2020.
    While the government on Thursday was tight-lipped about resources sector measures, multiple industry sources said the government is planning to proceed with production tax credits to help critical minerals and rare earths operations underpin Labor’s net zero and Future Made in Australia plans.
    The policy, which faced initial resistance from Treasury, was the top demand from nickel and ­lithium miners at a crisis roundtable the government hosted on January 25. Resources Minister Madeleine King convened the meeting following a crash in nickel prices fuelled by a Chinese-backed surge in production in Indonesia.
    Amid miners’ concerns about workplace, economic and investment impacts of the Albanese government’s sweeping industrial relations, environmental and climate change reforms, senior government sources said the resources sector would be pleased with the new budget measures.
    Government sources also revealed Labor’s Future Made in Australia push would deliver major wins for Western Australia and Queensland, one year out from the federal election. Labor strategists have warned the government must win back waning support from voters in the mining battleground states.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/sandbags-of-cash-from-anthony-albanese-to-save-rocky-states/news-story/3e8a13e1348b4451b76c9f389ab8dadc?amp

  4. Nicolle Flint is up against a hard working member in Louise Miller-Frost, who brings her A game as former CEO of St Vincent de Paul and of Catherine House. She is quietly very active around Boothby.

    Her focus is corruption, poverty and disability. Expect a ministerial track before too long.

  5. [‘…almost one in five believe “a woman can make a man so angry that he hits her when he didn’t mean to”.]

    They could take a walk until the dust settles.

  6. As a Boothby voter I will be happy to give Flint the flick.

    My partner an I have had a couple of interactions with Louise Miller-Frost, and she is hugely impressive.

  7. Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. Some really ugly scenes in USA with police moving in to close anti-Israel demonstrations in universities. Over 100 arrested at UCLA with rubber bullets fired (videoed) and dozens injured. 1968 didn’t end well for the government and this won’t either.

  8. Curious that Nicole Flint is back in politics after leaving it saying she could not stand the personal attacks. Yet now the opinion polls are looking better and suddenly she is bravely back in the fray.

    Like Eston Kohver I think she will find it tough to win back Boothby.

  9. [‘…almost one in five believe “a woman can make a man so angry that he hits her when he didn’t mean to”.]
    Ratio of Female to Male Psychopaths

    There had also been fewer studies looking at psychopathy in women than in men, he said, and assessors may be reluctant to label women as psychopaths.

    Some estimates have suggested there could be a 10:1 ratio of male to female psychopaths, but Boddy’s work, using only the first part of the LSRP, suggested the figures were very different.

    “It’s almost one to one,” Boddy said, although he noted large-scale studies of randomly chosen adults would be needed to get a more definitive picture.

    “Estimates [using the first part of the LSRP suggest] there are about 23% of men who, although they’re not categorically psychopathic, have enough of the traits to be problematic for society,” he said.

    Boddy’s own research, based on surveys of white-collar workers, suggested such traits were not uncommon in females. “Around 12% to 13% of females have enough of those traits to be potentially problematic,” he said.

    Source:
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/feb/26/more-women-may-be-psychopaths-than-previously-thought-says-expert

    Want to know the solution to DV?
    Ask the people who deal with it every day, the cops.
    Keep Submissions anonymous to protect peoples careers and see what they’ve got to say?

  10. Am a Bradfield voter, albeit in the somewhat ignored NW corner. Boele certainly ran Fletcher very close in 2022 running effectively line-ball in the NW (Hornsby) segment and winning some booths along the railway/highway corridor (cutting Fletcher’s margin in these booths to <2%).
    His bacon was saved by postals and the presence of the impregnable Lib fortress of St Ives (where he still took the double figure haircut he copped elsewhere in the seat).

    TBH, the seat that should get the chop in this part of Sydney is Berowra which is a mish mash of 3 separate areas which, whilst they may be part of the same LGA, in truth no longer have any particular community of interest and each vote quite differently.

    My thoughts are: – move Nth Sydney's northern border north of Chatswood, maybe even as far north as Lindfield.
    – move St Ives and all areas east of Arterial Road into Mackellar.
    – Bradfield takes up the eastern segment of Berowra (moving north of Hornsby up to the Hawkesbury River and south along the rail line/Pennant Hills Rd to Pennant Hills/Beecroft with F4 as southern boundary).
    – can be some tinkering with that southern boundary as to how far north Bennelong goes and whether it takes in Beecroft
    – West Pennant Hills and Cherrybrook go to Mitchell (these areas gravitate to Castle Hill)
    – the semi rural booths (which actually provide the "fat" in the Lib margin) can probably be split between Mitchell and Macquarie.

  11. ‘Australia’s police ministers will investigate new ways to spot red flags for dangerous men, which could involve looking at their online activity, GPS and mental health data or involvement in family law disputes. Natassia Chrysanthos reports that, as state and federal governments escalate their efforts to tackle domestic violence, ministers are also examining how intervention orders and apprehended violence orders travel across state borders to ensure women escaping violent partners do not have to renew them if they move.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/how-police-could-spot-red-flags-for-violent-men-who-fly-under-the-radar-20240502-p5foa3.html
    —————————–
    There’s some useful stuff in this. We support a woman who was physically and psychologically smashed by her partner. She moved interstate but the relevant legal protections did not move with her.

  12. Badthinker @ #16 Friday, May 3rd, 2024 – 8:43 am

    [‘…almost one in five believe “a woman can make a man so angry that he hits her when he didn’t mean to”.]
    Ratio of Female to Male Psychopaths

    There had also been fewer studies looking at psychopathy in women than in men, he said, and assessors may be reluctant to label women as psychopaths.

    Some estimates have suggested there could be a 10:1 ratio of male to female psychopaths, but Boddy’s work, using only the first part of the LSRP, suggested the figures were very different.

    “It’s almost one to one,” Boddy said, although he noted large-scale studies of randomly chosen adults would be needed to get a more definitive picture.

    “Estimates [using the first part of the LSRP suggest] there are about 23% of men who, although they’re not categorically psychopathic, have enough of the traits to be problematic for society,” he said.

    Boddy’s own research, based on surveys of white-collar workers, suggested such traits were not uncommon in females. “Around 12% to 13% of females have enough of those traits to be potentially problematic,” he said.

    Source:
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/feb/26/more-women-may-be-psychopaths-than-previously-thought-says-expert

    Want to know the solution to DV?
    Ask the people who deal with it every day, the cops.
    Keep Submissions anonymous to protect peoples careers and see what they’ve got to say?

    It’s not the cops who “deal with” DV, it’s the victims

  13. In this country, in Australia, we have a separation of the judicial system from the political system, but, if it was up to me, I assure you that there wouldn’t have been bail granted in that case,” Albanese said on Channel Seven’s Sunrise program.
    _____________________
    There is very little separation in Victoria.

  14. one in four Australian adults still think domestic violence “is a normal reaction to day-to-day stress and frustration”, according to the latest national survey, and almost one in five believe “a woman can make a man so angry that he hits her when he didn’t mean to”.

    I can’t access this article. Does it say what the gender split of people holding these attitudes is?

  15. ‘Badthinker says:
    Friday, May 3, 2024 at 8:43 am

    [‘…almost one in five believe “a woman can make a man so angry that he hits her when he didn’t mean to”.]
    Ratio of Female to Male Psychopaths

    There had also been fewer studies looking at psychopathy in women than in men, he said, and assessors may be reluctant to label women as psychopaths.

    Some estimates have suggested there could be a 10:1 ratio of male to female psychopaths, but Boddy’s work, using only the first part of the LSRP, suggested the figures were very different.

    “It’s almost one to one,” Boddy said, although he noted large-scale studies of randomly chosen adults would be needed to get a more definitive picture.

    “Estimates [using the first part of the LSRP suggest] there are about 23% of men who, although they’re not categorically psychopathic, have enough of the traits to be problematic for society,” he said.

    Boddy’s own research, based on surveys of white-collar workers, suggested such traits were not uncommon in females. “Around 12% to 13% of females have enough of those traits to be potentially problematic,” he said.

    Source:
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/feb/26/more-women-may-be-psychopaths-than-previously-thought-says-expert

    Want to know the solution to DV?
    Ask the people who deal with it every day, the cops.
    Keep Submissions anonymous to protect peoples careers and see what they’ve got to say?’
    ——————————–
    On the overlay of psychopathology statistics with DV statistics, whichever set of psychopathology statistics you choose, psychopaths are in the minority of DV perpetrators.

    As noted the other day, when Arendt did an intense study of Adolf Eichmann, she found that evil is banal. It is the very ordinariness of domestic violence that we need to eliminate.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2011/aug/29/hannah-arendt-adolf-eichmann-banality-of-evil

  16. Socrates @ #13 Friday, May 3rd, 2024 – 8:39 am

    Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. Some really ugly scenes in USA with police moving in to close anti-Israel demonstrations in universities. Over 100 arrested at UCLA with rubber bullets fired (videoed) and dozens injured. 1968 didn’t end well for the government and this won’t either.

    May be a silly question. I seem to recall when I was a student that Police had to ask for permission to enter on to a Uni campus. Is this still the case?

  17. Here in Melbourne, there was a very sad case of stalking a couple of years ago.

    A young girl who worked at the local serco office showed kindness to one of the workers who had been dismissed from the premises.
    He was appreciative at the time. Thereafter, he started stalking her online.

    She and her family sought help from police etc. Anyhoo, eventually this stalker went radio silent for months, and they thought the danger had passed.

    What then happened?

    During the night, he broke into her bedroom and stabbed her violently to death. Her own mother was sleeping in another bedroom. She heard something and ran to her daughter’s bedroom. It was to no avail.

    He has been jailed for,36 years, which infuriated her family. He should have been given a life sentence.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-29/luay-sako-sentenced-celeste-manno-murder/103525974

  18. Sprocket and dog lovers
    This story gives the full and continuing saga of Kristi Noem dog killing

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/5/2/2238555/-Kristi-Noem-s-most-public-murder-is-her-political-career?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_3&pm_medium=web

    “Most people caught bragging about how they took a family dog to a rock quarry and murdered it because they “just hated that dog,” might think about shutting up for a moment. Most people might hope that something horrific would appear in the next news cycle to divert the public spotlight and end painful memes about a puppy mounted like a trophy.

    But no one would say that South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem is like most people.

    Noem is still going on the air, not to apologize for her dog murder, but to double and triple down on the importance of shooting a 14-month-old German wirehaired pointer. She’s now claiming that she did it because this dog was a danger to her children and “not a puppy.”

  19. In relation to DV on Indigenous communities one of the key barriers is police-community relations.

    The police are simply not regarded as a ‘safe zone’. Further, seeking protection from the police is like seeking protection from the enemy.

    Another element is that there is a lot of civil society involvement in the DV service providers domain. There are many, many women’s groups set up to support DV victims. While many of these groups are informal, the bigger and better-resourced ones are incorporated. They can account for government funding. There are proportionately far less of these groups, certainly in a formal sense, in Indigenous communities.

    The point is that the incorporated groups are good at attracting funding from governments. (One called for $300 million extra during the recent/current DV moral panic.) The proposition is that the more successful these groups are, the more likely it is that non-Indigenous DV women are outcompeting Indigenenous women for limited government funding and support.

    Putting the above two together the focus of Indigenous DV funding should do two things. The first is to support the development of incorporated Indigenous women DV support groups. The second is to provide a physical building safe zone in each community. The crucial element of the latter is that physical safety does not depend on a police presence.

    Finally, an important element of the safe zone is that it should enable episodic safety while partners, otherwise acceptable, go through grog or drug binges.

  20. Boerwarsays:
    Friday, May 3, 2024 at 8:53 am
    On the overlay of psychopathology statistics with DV statistics, whichever set of psychopathology statistics you choose, psychopaths are in the minority of DV perpetrators.

    What about Victims?
    Any Psychopathology stats there?
    Then there’s the family background of Victims and perpetrators – any overrepresentation of Psychopaths/ASPD there?
    It’s just common sense, DV Abusers don’t arise ex nihilo, there’s a backstory worth investigating.

  21. Badthinker
    Always happy to see you move into statistics. If you have the ability to pose a rhetorical question you have the wherewithal to address it.


  22. Socratessays:
    Friday, May 3, 2024 at 8:39 am
    Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. Some really ugly scenes in USA with police moving in to close anti-Israel demonstrations in universities. Over 100 arrested at UCLA with rubber bullets fired (videoed) and dozens injured. 1968 didn’t end well for the government and this won’t either.

    Socrates
    One of the hallmarks of liberal democracies is to allow protests to happen even it is inconvenient to the government and other authorities.
    This shows the government is atleast tolerant of dissent.
    Even ‘dastardly’ Modi government allowed demonstrations and protests regarding Gaza and many other protests so-called farmer protests.

  23. The more I heard the discourse around respect and violence, the more it reminded me of being told that it was up to all Muslims to own the problem of terrorism and solve it, writes Waleed Aly who says holding all men responsible for a violent minority has failed to keep women safe. It’s a very interesting contribution.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/holding-all-men-responsible-for-a-violent-minority-has-failed-to-keep-women-safe-20240501-p5fo82.html
    ——————
    It seems to me the key statement Waleed Aly is making in his article on policies on male violence against women, is:

    “ …. investigative journalist Jess Hill and criminologist Michael Salter, are pointing to the things we’ve never wanted to mention in their recent white paper, but with much clearer connections to violence: among them, alcohol, gambling, pornography and abusive and neglectful childhood environments – cycles we can try to break.”.

    It had bugger all to do with islamic terrorism.

  24. BW
    May I quote “Moreton Bay”?

    Like the Egyptians and ancient Hebrews, we were oppressed under Logan’s yoke,

    Till a native black who lay in ambush did give our tyrant his mortal stroke.

    Fellow prisoners, be exhilarated, that all such monsters such a death may find!

    And when from bondage we are liberated, our former sufferings shall fade from mind.

  25. Too hot to handle …

    https://johnmenadue.com/climate-security-risks-and-australias-failure-too-hot-to-handle-released-thursday/

    If you don’t get it by now, you are being deliberately obtuse. But it is worth posting the articles parting thought …

    You can’t solve a problem — in this case the biggest threat humanity has ever faced — without talking about it honestly and leading the conversation. The Australian government is certainly not doing that.

  26. The statistical link between pornography and DV murders is that the trend graph for the latter has gone down as the trend graph in accessibility and use of the former has gone up. When we are spending billions of dollars the opportunity cost of spending money on useless reforms is huge.

    The spike 2023 spike in DV murders is fairly typical of annual spikes – and/or annual declines – within the forty year trend.

    A moral panic merchant was claiming the other day that 2023 was the start of a new trend.

    The direct and causal link between alcohol, drugs and gambling with DV and murder is generally accepted and provides a useful focus for reform.

    The link between an abusive and violent childhood and adult violence is proven and also provides a useful focus for reform.

  27. spr

    Haha.

    Dad reckoned that keeping dogs starving made them the fastest in the hunt. Dave reckoned that Dad’s
    dogs were the fastest in the district.

  28. It’s great to see Aussie Uni students “mirroring the USA”, obviously preparing themselves for jobs as successful Liberal or Labor politicians….

    “Australian students join US university movement with pro-Palestinian encampments

    A university-based pro-Palestinian protest movement that has made headlines in the United States is being mirrored in Australia.”

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-05-02/australian-encampment-protests-columbia-university-israel-gaza/103794882

  29. Over half of the people who raise boys and girls into men and women are women. This is true in the home. It is markedly more so in primary school.

    Is there something missing here?

  30. Donald’s lawyer drops a big one today

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/5/2/2238459/–Vonshitzinpants-another-media-history-moment?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

    “Jake Tapper(CNN): Okay, I apologize for this update ahead of time. But, Blanche, Todd Blanche, the Trump attorney, is specifically reading a post that Michael Cohen made on Twitter on April 22nd, and one in which he refers to Donald Trump as VonShitzinPants. That is just a factual record that I’m bringing before you. This is in the court transcript. VonShitzinPants. Blanch also said there are repeated attacks on Trump and his candidacy on Cohen’s podcast and TikTok account. Dana Bash, I know you want to weigh in on VonShitzinPants.

    Dana Bash: I think you did it on behalf of all of us.

    Jake Tapper: Just for the record, I have been calling it “VonPoopsinPants” for for weeks now, but now it’s a part of the official transcript.

    Watch the video in the article. That is what Trump lawyer said on court referencing Michael Cohen.

  31. ‘Rikali says:
    Friday, May 3, 2024 at 9:36 am

    It’s great to see Aussie Uni students “mirroring the USA”, obviously preparing themselves for jobs as successful Liberal or Labor politicians….

    “Australian students join US university movement with pro-Palestinian encampments

    A university-based pro-Palestinian protest movement that has made headlines in the United States is being mirrored in Australia.”

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-05-02/australian-encampment-protests-columbia-university-israel-gaza/103794882
    ——————————
    The MSM reporting is disproportionate, as usual. Sound, light and movement attracts click bait.
    For example, ANU has 19,000 students. Around a hundred are actively involved. Less than 1%. The demo and the counter demo have, thus far, been reasonably respectful to one another. The sole substantive outcome to date, to my knowledge, is that they have planted an olive tree.

  32. It is good to see that Prime Minister Albanese has criticized the bailing and lack of an ankle bracelet on the Perth alleged violent attacker.

    The state plods and justice systems need to get their arses into gear.

    Otherwise the next thing we know some High Court judge or other will have his/her human rights abused by some arsehole violent home invader.

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