Further analysis Thursday morning
While these elections were good for Dems, New York Times analyst Nate Cohn says they were low-turnout affairs. The types of voters that didn’t vote yesterday, but are likely to vote in a presidential election, are much more anti-Biden, and more motivated by economic factors than abortion.
Furthermore, the legislative elections, where voters don’t know so much about candidates so they vote for parties more than for candidates, were mediocre for Dems compared with Biden’s margins. In Virginia, Dems won the Senate by 21-19 and the House by a likely 51-49. But Biden won Virginia by 10.1% in 2020. In the close seats, Reps ran well ahead of Trump.
In New Jersey, Dems won the Senate by 25-15 and the House by 51-29. But if they’d won the NJ popular vote by close to Biden’s 15.9 point margin in 2020, the single-member system should have produced a bigger blowout. In Mississippi, Reps won the Senate by 36-16 and the House by 79-41 with two others. That suggests a blowout; it was Trump by 16.5 in 2020.
Republicans also far exceeded their governor candidate’s performance in other statewide races in Mississippi and Kentucky.
Live Commentary
5:37pm Overall, today was decent for Dems. They gained full control of the Virginia legislature after Reps won the House in a big swing two years ago. They held the federal Rhode Island seat in a by-election by a bigger margin than in 2022. They held the Kentucky governorship despite it being a very Republican state at presidential elections. And two referendums supported by Dems passed in Ohio.
However, Biden remains unpopular, and today’s results are not good predictors of the outcome of the November 2024 presidential election. But they’ll mean Biden is less likely to face a real challenge to his re-nomination as 2024 Dem presidential candidate.
5:13pm Rep Reeves has been called the Mississippi governor winner, defeating Dem Presley by 51.6-46.6 with 94% in.
4:15pm Dems have now been called the winners of both chambers of the Virginia legislature, gaining control of the House and maintaining it in the Senate. Nate Silver says that, since 2917, Dems have done well in US elections when Trump isn’t on the ballot paper with the exception of November 2021.
3:57pm In Mississippi, Reps have easily retained control of both chambers of the state legislature, while Dems are on track to retain control in New Jersey.
3:40pm In Mississippi, with 86% in, Rep Reeves leads by 52.3-45.8 and Wasserman has called for Reeves. Dems have won the Virginia state Senate 21-16 with 3 uncalled, and lead in the House 48-42 with 10 uncalled. Dems have also won a state Supreme Court judgeship in Pennsylvania, where a Dem defeated a Rep 54.1-45.9.
2:10pm Mississippi looks very likely to be held by the incumbent Rep governor Reeves, with Wasserman pointing out a disastrous result for the Dem challenger.
2:07pm In Virginia, Dems lead the state Senate in called races by 18-14 with 8 still undecided. They lead the House by 42-32 with 26 undecided.
1:46pm Over 95% reporting in Rhode Island, and the Dem wins the by-election by 64.8-35.2. That’s slightly better than the 64.0-35.8 margin Dems won by in 2022, and much bigger than the poll that suggested only an 11-point Dem win.
1:42pm In Ohio, both the pro-abortion and the pro-marijuana amendments have been called for “yes”. However, the pro-abortion amendment is doing much less well than polls suggested (winning 56-44 when polls had it up by over 20 points).
1:20pm Media have now called Kentucky governor for Dem incumbent Beshear, who leads by 52.7-47.3 with 86% in.
1:17pm With 12% counted in Mississippi, the incumbent Rep Reeves leads the Dem Presley for governor by 56.0-42.5.
1:12pm Wasserman says Dems have retained control of the Virginia state Senate. With 41% counted in Ohio, the pro-abortion amendment wins (current lead 57.4-42.6).
12:55pm With 33% counted in Ohio, the pro-abortion measure is winning by 59.1-40.9 and the pro-marijuana one by 55.7-44.3.
12:22pm Fast counting in RI, where polls closed at 12pm. Dem now leads by 63.4-36.6 with 75% in.
12:16pm In Rhode Island, the Dem has been called the winner of the federal by-election, and currently leads by 62.4-37.6 with 58% in.
12:10pm In Virginia it’s a 6-6 tie in the Senate in called races; 21 needed for a majority. In the House, Dems lead by 24-19; 51 needed for majority.
11:51am Both Ohio referendums, one on a right to abortion and one on legalising marijuana, are far ahead, abortion by 66-34 and marijuana by 57.5-42.5. The NYT prediction is both will win easily.
11:31am Wasserman has CALLED Kentucky governor for Dem Beshear. He currently leads by 56.6-43.4 with 31% in.
11:19am US analyst Dave Wasserman is tweeting the results as counties complete their counts, and these are so far looking good for Beshear (Dem) in Kentucky compared to 2019, which he won.
10:58am 12% now reporting in Kentucky, and Beshear leads by 60-40. This reflects early votes from the Kentucky cities of Louisville and Lexington.
10:40am Wednesday The first results from Kentucky from rural counties have the Rep Cameron leading the Dem incumbent Beshear by 53-47.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
While the next US presidential election will occur in November 2024, there are a few US state elections and a federal by-election today. There will be gubernatorial elections in Kentucky and Mississippi and legislative elections in Mississippi, Virginia and New Jersey. A federal by-election for a safe Democratic House seat will occur in Rhode Island, and there will be a referendum on a pro-abortion measure in Ohio.
Elections in Louisiana (Donald Trump by 18.6 in 2020) occurred on October 14, with runoffs if needed on November 18. In a “jungle primary” in which all candidates run on the same ballot, Republican Jeff Landry won the governorship with 51.6%, above the 50% required to win outright, with a Democrat at 25.9%. Including minor candidates, Republicans defeated Democrats by 65.5-28.5. This was a Republican gain, with the current Democratic governor term limited. Republicans extended their state Senate majority from 27-12 to 28-11 with the House to be decided after runoffs.
In Kentucky (Trump by 25.9 in 2020), incumbent Democrat Andy Beshear led Republican Daniel Cameron for governor by 49-33 in an Emerson poll in early October, but this became a 47-47 tie in the final Emerson poll last week. In Mississippi (Trump by 16.5), a mid-October poll by a Democratic pollster had incumbent Republican Tate Reeves just one point ahead of his Democratic challenger, but an early October poll gave him an 8-point lead.
Republicans hold big majorities in the Mississippi legislature, while Democrats have clear majorities in the New Jersey legislature (Joe Biden by 15.9 in 2020). The most interesting legislative election is in Virginia (Biden by 10.1), where a big swing to Republicans in 2021 gave them the governorship and a 52-48 majority in the House. The Senate was not up for election in 2021, and Democrats hold a 22-18 majority.
Polling shows the pro-abortion measure in Ohio (Trump by 8.0) winning by at least 20 points. Past votes on similar measures in various states have far exceeded Biden’s performance in 2020, but they don’t imply smashing Democratic victories any more than the big defeat for Australia’s Voice referendum implies a smashing Coalition victory. State gubernatorial elections are poorly correlated with presidential elections.
A mid-October poll for the federal by-election in Rhode Island gave the Democrat a 46-35 lead. This would be a poor result for Democrats, as Biden won 63.8% in 2020 and Democrats won by 64-36 in 2022.
Polls close at 10am AEDT Wednesday in Kentucky’s eastern time zone, 11am in Virginia and western Kentucky, 11:30am in Ohio, and 12pm in Rhode Island, Mississippi and New Jersey. I will start commenting from about 10:45am.
Despite unpopularity, Biden and Trump cruising to nominations
The Democratic and Republican nominating contests begin in early 2024, with the Iowa Republican caucus on January 15 the first contest. There are several other contests in February before many states vote on “Super Tuesday” March 5.
Trump is dominating Republican national primary polls in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate, winning 58.4%, to 13.6% for Ron DeSantis and 7.9% for Nikki Haley. He also has a big lead in Iowa. Biden hasn’t been challenged by another important Democrat. Federal Minnesota House member Dean Phillips launched a presidential campaign on October 27, but is so far not registering in Democratic national polls.
Biden and Trump’s likely nominations come despite their unpopularity with the general electorate. Biden’s ratings are currently 55.0% disapprove, 38.8% approve in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate (net -16.1), while Trump is at 54.6% unfavourable, 40.8% favourable (net -13.7).
Robert F. Kennedy Jr campaigned for the Democratic nomination, but his anti-vaxxer views were unsuitable for Democrats. He has launched an independent presidential campaign, and polls currently have him in the double digits. Biden and Trump’s unpopularity could benefit third party candidates. By the November 2024 election, Biden will be almost 82 and Trump 78.
Siena polls for The New York Times of six close 2020 Biden states were released Sunday. They gave Trump four-to-ten-point leads in five of these states, with Biden only ahead by two in Wisconsin. By 59-37, voters trusted Trump over Biden on the economy.
Meanwhile in Argentina, there will be a November 19 presidential runoff between the centre-left Massa and the far-right Milei. The three most recent polls, conducted after the conservative Bullrich endorsed Milei, suggest a close contest.
I think it should be mentioned for the Mississippi Governor contest that if the Democrats can pull the Republicans below 50%, then it’ll lead to a runoff election.
Hinds County is the key one in this contest. So far it’s running 83% Dem compared to 78% last time, and in 2019 there were about 71,500 votes there. As of now, 45,779 votes have been counted.
Exonerated ‘Central Park Five’ member Yusef Salaam wins New York City Council seat
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/11/7/2204338/-Exonerated-Central-Park-Five-member-Yusef-Salaam-wins-New-York-City-Council-seat
Virginia House is now 51 Dem, 42 Rep with 7 seats remaining, all leaning Republican. So it seems like it’s a wrap there, the Democrats have flipped that chamber regardless of how the last 7 seats go.
The closest undeclared seat at the moment in Virginia is the 82nd district where the Republican is leading by 173 votes with 92% counted. The remaining 6 seats seem to be comfortably Republican holds.
Always knew he was a time-traveler.
Also, questionable/empty comment. There have only been two elections where Trump was on the ballot paper. Democrats did at least passably well in both.
Gained Senate seats both times. Gained House seats once. Lost House seats once despite simultaneously increasing their winning vote margin by 3% (hello, gerrymandering!). Won the popular vote twice. Received the most popular votes ever in a US general election. Won the presidency once against an incumbent administration. Only very narrowly lost the presidency despite the handicaps of a deeply unpopular nominee and an outgoing 8-year-old Democratic administration.
Really the Dems just do well generally, then. And when Republicans do well, it’s more because they cheat and rig the game in their favor than because they actually attract more votes than the other side. With or without Trump on the ticket.
[snap]
ar, it isn’t uncommon for a democrat to get 45 for gov in miss. But perhaps with an unpopular dem Potus it is notable. These can be more a popularity contest tho and the current gop gov is on the nose.
Mississippi is one of those states where the Democrats look like they might be a chance but aren’t in the end. The fact that 37% of population is Black suggest that they should have more of a chance than they do. Some of those counties in the west of the state are so poverty stricken it is hard to believe it is America. Yet, 46% seems to be the limit of Democratic support.
Looks like most of the rest of the vote in Hinds county just dropped and it just wasn’t enough. A pity about that. This had the potential of being another 2017 Alabama Senate result.
AR- Sometimes the overall vote in House elections goes down by the seats go in the opposite direction because there are more uncontested seats. So a very safe house seat that is not contested reduces the amount of vote that a party gets overall. It is amazing that so many seats in a major democracy can go uncontested. Ballot access is sometimes the real issue.
Virginia – how close was that?!
Senate: 21-19 Dem-GOP (an improvement for GOP compared to their pre-election position)
Reps: 51-49 Dem-GOP (a loss for GOP)
I’ve no idea who won the popular vote. I scanned through all the results, but with so many one-sided contests where the other party wasn’t even standing make it hard to get a sense of it.
Close seats were won by both sides.
If I had to guess, I’d say Dems won the popular vote as well, but be interested if anyone has that info to hand now all results are in. Biden won state by > 10% in 2020.
Caveat: with all the seats where the opposing party wasn’t standing, it may or may not balance out and will distort % figures so make these off-year elections an even worse predictor of future state-wide elections (President, Governor, federal senators etc) than we’ve been warned about.
USA
I think it’s good the way candidates from the minority party often win state-wide races for governor, senator etc, in states that are heavily dominated by the other side, e.g. in terms of yesterday’s elections that means Kentucky governor but it happens both ways.
It stops a complete monopoly by the other side and keeps them more honest and inclined to better government.
@Adrian
Shockingly low turnout in Virginia mid-terms, I guess that’s usual for USA compared to elections for governor and federal elections (which are low compared to other Western countries anyway, though less so in the highly polarised presidential election of 2020, where Trump won the 2nd most votes ever won by a candidate despite being 9m votes fewer than Biden) – do you know?
ar
I too would like to see more of Nate Silver’s analysis because GOP doing better when Trump’s up for election is not how it’s struck me over these last few years either. But he’s the geek so I suppose he might be onto something, however I’m reserving my acquiescence with his opinion for now.
I too would like to see more of Nate Silver’s analysis
————————————
Here it is…..
https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-gop-is-in-a-trump-trap
Some teeth gnashing amongst the Repugs…. And some blaming Dotard
https://youtu.be/vGy1CB7pToY?si=0KYOU_4sgTVRGDup
New Jersey Republicans got demolished. How bad did it get? A Trump district +35 in NJ was flipped by a Democrat!
Andy Beshear just flipped Letcher County, Kentucky, a county Donald Trump won in 2020 by nearly 60 points
Ven
If you’re going to win a state-wide election in deep-red Kentucky as a Democrat, by definition there will be flips of this nature here and there. Though that one certainly sounds impressive.
In the end, all politics is personal.
Adrian
It takes a lot of effort to ignore the poles that have Biden ahead.
Even your selected poll has Biden ahead if Trump is convicted.
Now what do you think is the possibility of that not happening?
It would seem the Yanks still have faith in their legal system.
Team Katich @ #65 Wednesday, November 8th, 2023 – 7:12 pm
Ah, so he acknowledges the relevant points.
Republicans do poorly even with Trump.
He also raises an interesting factoid, though doesn’t seem to hit upon the reason for it.
This is a mix of 1) Trump-negative Republicans and 2) independents who believe that the most important part of any electoral outcome is that the same party should not control both the Presidency and Congress (i.e. gridlock/forced-compromise is good).
They’re voting Hillary/Biden at the top of the ticket, assuming they’ll win, and then voting Republican down ballot due to regular party affiliation or as a strategic effort to deny Democrats control of both branches. I’ve got several friends who deliberately do the latter thing and encourage others to do the same.
Trumps unelectability helps Republicans in an ironic sort of way, by making the ‘strategic deadlock’ cohort decide that Republican is the ‘safe’ down-ticket option. But it’s a small cohort, not worth more than 1-2 points. If he’s so radioactive that the regular GOP vote falls behind by more than that, down-ticket Republicans will outperform Trump while still underperforming generally.
Adrian
The poles you so love being treated with the shade they deserve,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ci7b7EGiqOU
frednk
I’m not at all sure what your points are after reading your posts, hopefully Adrian understands better than me.
Meanwhile, although it’s relatively a dead heat at this point, 7 out of the last 10 published national polls show Trump beating Biden (and Biden’s 3 leads are all by 1%, Trump’s range from 1.5-5%) – but this is IN % TERMS.
Which means, IF repeated on election day then Trump is smashing it in the electoral college as Dems are increasingly piling up votes in ‘safe’ states without reducing the number of ‘toss-up’ states that decide the electoral college. Trump lost by 9m votes / 4.5% to Biden in 2020, yet came within a whisker – literally a tiny few ‘000 votes in 3 or 4 states – of winning the election.
That being the case, if he’s looking even 50-50 on votes with Biden nationally, then so he should be winning those close states that Adrian mentions, so maybe the fact Biden isn’t losing in all of them isn’t a terrible performance – just not good enough to beat Trump, at this point.
Meant to include link to most recent polls https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_States_presidential_election#Joe_Biden_vs_Donald_Trump_(2023)
One think I’ve noticed about VA is the relatively high number of seats that are uncontested in the Legislature with the one candidate just deemed elected because no one from the other party (or independent) has stood.
It’s not good for democracy. And can have implications for other races on the ballot as it depresses turnout for the side that hasn’t put up a candidate.
If my counting is correct 32/100 in the VA House and 5/40 in the Senate were uncontested.
BTSays says:
Thursday, November 9, 2023 at 12:49 am
Meant to include link to most recent polls https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_States_presidential_election#Joe_Biden_vs_Donald_Trump_(2023)
The link highlights my point, the polls are all over the place. You pick the poll to suit your desired commentary. The commentary says more about the commentator than it does about the likely outcome.
ar, yes, Silver definitely qualified his headline. But I wish he went deeper.
There is no doubt some Republican voters, put off by Trump, split their vote down ticket rather than not turn up. But just how much did having Trump on the top of the ticket help turnout for Republican votes? How much did it help turnout for Democrat votes? Will that change in 2024? With MAGA in control of the House, will this split ticket voting continue?
Trump is deeply disliked in the electorate – he is a danger to society, democracy and an incompetent pos. But a large enough group adore all of this about him and I suspect some of them would, in years gone by, not voted or even voted a charismatic Democrat. His ability to turn these voters into guaranteed turnouts can’t be underestimated. And while the polls this far out have plenty of caveats, they also can’t be dismissed as the candidates are an incumbent Potus and one who was recently Potus.
NYT/Sienna polls are respected and well funded. But they are using some interesting techniques to over come poor response rates and under sampling of MAGA. And this is a snapshot a year out. Not only could the environment change, but as people become more focused, they may not be as prepared to give a nutter another chance in the booth compare to on the phone today.
The question asked:
Is the polling accurate?
Why does the media keep pretending the republicans are going to win?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d8l19cuv7N0
It doesn’t answer the question, why this step back from reality?
However, Biden remains unpopular, and today’s results are not good predictors of the outcome of the November 2024 presidential election. But they’ll mean Biden is less likely to face a real challenge to his re-nomination as 2024 Dem presidential candidate.
Fred,
Yes, the media (and our our own AB falls into the same trap) seem convinced that Biden is in real trouble, and that Trump is a better than even chance to win next year. Now, in a two-horse race, anything is possible of course, and it’s true that Biden’s approval ratings are historically weak. But the current situation is probably unprecedented in US history, and so history may not be the best guide. In 2024, there will be at least two issues that will carry more weight than the performance of the incumbent. First of all there’s Trump. he’s no longer some disrupter outsider that some undecideds might be prepared to give a chance. He’s a former president with a track record, what’s more, one that is currently indicted in four places, and by next November he’s likely to be convicted in at least one of these cases. For sure Trump has a strong hold on about 20-25% of voters, and there’s another similar number who will vote for him simply because he’s the Republican candidate. But in neither of his presidential runs has he cracked 47% of the popular vote, which suggests that is is ceiling, and it’s reallly hard to see how a convicted and already rejected President can grow that.
But perhaps the more instructive issue is abortion. There have been six abortion-explicit ballots since Dobbs was handed down, and the pro-choice side has each one handsomely. Meanwhile, the Democrats (the clearly more pro-choice party) have over-performed both polls and expectations in every normal election since then. We can wet the bed about particular polls all we like, but the real life evidence from real life elections is that abortion is a red hot issue, and that people, when they get a chance, will be voting for choice. And that means Biden and the Democrats.
Hugoaugogo
In my view a reasonable summery.
The US may be crazy, but it is to suspend reality to believe they are in a collective religious funk.
The republicans don’t seem to be accepting Adrian’s analysis.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YMLd-QLuZCs
“but they don’t imply smashing Democratic victories any more than the big defeat for Australia’s Voice referendum implies a smashing Coalition victory”
This comparison isn’t accurate – abortion referendum results are positively correlated with Democrat performance in a way that simply isn’t true of Australian referendum results
Counting continues in the 82nd District in Virginia, the Republican lead has extended to 233 votes, making it more likely they’ll hold their 49th seat.
As they say, every vote counts.
@Adrian
” In the close seats, Reps ran well ahead of Trump.”
Adrian, you know I really appreciate your articles on here.
However, please STOP using the word “Reps” to describe Republican politicians when the word Reps in USA politics means something completely different, i.e. members of the House of Representative – both federally and in every state, such as those you are writing about, and from any party whatsoever. It makes reading of your articles more confusing than you seem to realise, sometimes.
It’s a bit like in the Uk or Australia calling Conservatives / Liberals ‘MPs’ (yes I know this abbrev doesn’t conflate with the full name the same, but you get the point) when actually the word ‘MPs’ refers to members of parliament on both sides.
I recall you don’t like the words the GOP stand for, for Republicans, even though that is the normal abbreviation in the USA for them. But really we won’t read anything into your use of it. And if you really can’t bring yourself to use it (which IMO is a little bizarre, it’s just what it is – like saying ‘Tory’ for Conservative), then maybe think of a less confusing one than ‘Reps’ e.g. ‘Repubs’.
Thank you in anticipation!
@frednk
“The link highlights my point, the polls are all over the place. You pick the poll to suit your desired commentary. ”
Exactly what I didn’t do, as you must know if you read my post!
I took the latest 10 polls and pointed out Trump was ahead in 7/10. However is that picking the poll to suit my desired commentary?
And what makes you think you can read my mind to know my desired commentary? My ‘desired commentary’ is accurate reporting of polls/underlying data, of which there is far too little – including in this thread by supposedly intelligent people that take the trouble to comment on these threads.
Now FWIW Trump is nearly the very last person I would like to see elected in the USA next year (Bernie Sanders would be worse, but Joe Biden, Dean Phillips, Hilary Clinton, Nikki Haley, Kamala Harris and Ron DeSantis – to name but a few – would all be much better / far less bad, than Trump IMHO).
But pretending that Trump isn’t currently favoured to win the GE against Joe Biden next year is denying reality and doesn’t make my favoured outcome more likely, unfortunately.
It’s not a shoe-in by any means, so I couldn’t possibly predict the outcome this far out. Any strengthening of the economy / lessening of price & interest rate pressures, should help Biden although he’s far behind Trump in polls on ‘managing the economy’ so he has a lot of catching up to do on what is the biggest issue for the electorate currently.
But the FACTS show that CURRENTLY, Trump is unfortunately favoured to win.
You might be better bracing yourself not burying your head in the sand (meant in friendliness).
Trump cleverly appoints three conservative / Christian judges to the Supreme Court.
Supreme Court overturns Rowe v Wade.
75% of population disagree and don’t trust Republications having power over womens health. Motivated to vote, young women in particular have linked abortion law to the Republicans and condemn them for it.
The Christian Lobby is interested in Church not State. Repeated defeats of Republicans will not mean they will change their position. They continue to have much influence over policy.
MAGAs are voting for Trump and have little interest in policy. If Trump says I sorted all this and I say………….. that will be good enough.
This infiltrated party with a policy unacceptable to more than 50% of the population just keeps walking towards the cliff edge.
Trump is not the answer, his position changes with the wind.
There are two extremely significant problems with trying to map these results, especially legislative results, onto a future presidential election. The first is the same reason our state and federal results almost never line up – people may have different opinions as to who should govern them at the state and national level in some cases punishing a party for past mismanagement (thus why the Dems hold the Kentucky governership). The second is voluntary voting. If the state district(s) they are in are uncompetitive (and so many are, especially factoring in gerrymandering) there’s little incentive to vote, particularly as the US tend to use cumbersome voting procedures, and its on a weekday. Its slightly better if there is a statewide position on the ballot – in that context note that Mississippi had a governor election while New Jersey didn’t.
Looking really hard for a dark cloud to match against every silver lining, or just trying to discourage complacency amongst the Democrats?
Baseline, baseline, baseline. I wish analysts and pundits would compare election results to their appropriate baseline. I ask you, which is more relevant in this case: Comparing the Virginia ’23 election to the presidential year 2020? or to off-year 2021 election? Surely the 2021 Virginia election which Youngkin won would be the more appropriate baseline to compare to the 2023 results. Same for the New Jersey elections. That would show a marked Democratic improvement.
The more interesting analysis you’ve rather blithely passed over. Normally Democrats get smashed in off-year / mid-term elections, as was the case for Clinton and Obama. Now it appears that Democrats more regularly turn-up in these elections (see 2018 and 2022 mid-terms and now this one), and its the Trump voter who will only show up when he’s on the ballot. But that appears to be a double edged sword for Republicans, as Trump’s presence also motivates more Democrats to vote (see Clinton and Biden winning the popular vote easily). I guess we’ll see if this trend continues post 2024. I’ve read some analysis that suggests its because the Democratic coalition is made up more of college educated voters, who are more likely to turn-up now for these elections. Up until 2000 I believe Republicans had an advantage in College educated voters. I’d like to see more analysis on this point, as it seems very interesting to me.
AR
I have no doubt better justification can be found on fox news.
Marjorie Greene needs help.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dwWn_2OTYCs
Interesting insights into the US off-year elections! It’s clear that while Democrats made gains, the voter turnout and preferences might not perfectly reflect a presidential election scenario. The nuances in local and statewide elections are always fascinating to observe. ️
Not sure that Democrats made net gains Emily?
Net losses in Virginia although they narrowly won both house and senate, including flipping the house.
Joe Manchin has just announced that he won’t stand for re-election in 2024, and given that Manchin is the only Democrat who could possibly win in ruby red West Virginia, this means that the GOP will win that seat next year. The Dems will need to hold all of their seats (including in red-leaning Ohio and Montana, as well as the 3-way race in Arizona) just to maintain a 50-50 split, as there are no real pick up opportunities for the Blue team.
BTsays, it was a three-seat gain since 2021 for Dems in the House, but a one-seat loss in the Senate compared with 2019.
Regarding use of “Rep” as an abbreviation for Republican, that abbreviation is used by The New York Times in its election results pages.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/11/07/us/elections/results-key-races.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=election-results&context=election_recirc®ion=NavBar
I don’t like “GOP” as it doesn’t follow from “Republican”, and you need to explain that Grand Old Party = Republican.
Regarding the confusion with “Representative”, I won’t use Representative in my US articles. If I need to identify a federal House member, I will call them the “federal House member”, such as in the article above regarding Dean Phillips.
Adrian
Ok, thanks.